The DiaTribe

Tomahawks on the Warpath

2012-05-23T20:12:00.001-04:00

After the hullaballoo caused by the Indians’ closer, it’s nice to see the focus turn (somewhat) back to baseball as the Tigers’ series that so many have pointed to on a referendum for the team (so far, so good) and the fans (well…) has now arrived. So before getting to some relevant baseball topics, I suppose I would be remiss if I didn’t touch on the comments made by Chris Perez last weekend, as much as I think they were overblown in our ESPN-ified, overly polarized world where there is suddenly only black and white in an argument and there are staged shouting matches to “articulate” those two points of view.

Certainly, the Perez comments and the reactions to them (with the local 11 PM news leading with it on Monday night with the requisite comments from some local sports talk radio host, sporting his obligatory slicked-back hair, goatee, and ignorance) fleshed out this idea that in this narcissistic society that we live in, everyone has an opinion and nobody’s wrong with the volume of the argument made meaning more than the strength of said argument.

In terms of what Perez said, his comments didn’t elicit the guttural response for me that it did for most. Some of the things that he said were pretty spot on (and read the whole text here, paying particular attention to the “negativity” portion) and they aren’t that different than what’s been written here and in other places attempting to rationalize why this town hasn’t gotten behind this team. Other things he said were unquestionably tone-deaf and likely were just portions of a rant that may not have been all that thought out or polished, like when he takes his Ivan Drago-esque stance that the team plays only for themselves and not for anyone else or his invocation of Philadelphia as a “fun” place to play, despite Philly fans’ deserved reputation as boorish while ignoring the inherent market differences between Cleveland and Philadelphia, affecting both organizations’ ability to retain players. Though his comments jumped from one topic to another, I think that what he ultimately did was hold up a mirror in front of the Cleveland sports fan – questioning why (or why not) they feel the things that they do as it pertains to their sports teams – and while many may not have liked what he said, there were elements of truth to it and he unquestionably put himself in the crosshairs.

Being at the game on Tuesday, it wasn’t too much of a surprise to see the reaction of the assembled crowd (which I was told included about 13,000 people that actually went through the turnstiles, not paid attendance…and it is here that I note that the Clippers drew 10,100 for their Monday night game in Columbus) when he was greeted with a standing ovation during his run out of the bullpen as the folks who were at the game are likely the folks who are usually at the games (other than the 4,000 or so Tigers’ fans on Tuesday) and Perez articulated what many of those diehard fans (who do attend games and have been attending games) have been feeling/saying about this team and this town for a while.

As for where it goes from here for Perez, as long as he continues to perform, it will fade into the background for him and the way that he’s perceived locally. However, if things go bad for him at some point, this will get thrown back in his face as the “experts” who work in the 140-character medium and who spout their vitriol online and on the airwaves will have one more reason to be bitter or cynical about a game that we’re all supposed enjoy and a team that we all SHOULD be enjoying.

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Sitting at the game on Tuesday, it was pointed out to me that the top of the Indians’ order (Choo, Cabrera, Hafner, and Santana) was netted for the Indians for Benuardo, Einar Diaz, Ryan Drese, and Casey Blake. After a weekend/beginning of the week in which we heard/read endlessly about the way that the Indians traded two consecutive Cy Young Award winners and how the fans are upset that the Indians hold their annual Fire Sale where they get rid of their best players, I thought a little perspective was in order. This isn’t meant to justify the CC or Lee deals, nor will it EVER mention Matt MaTola as an option for the current team as any kind of upgrade (as that’s idiocy), but let’s remember that the Indians have really had 4 seasons since the Colon deal in which they traded players (of varying degrees of note) in July of 2002 and perhaps it is instructive to look at those years of trading as a whole instead of analyzing individual trades.

Since I’m only talking mainly about 2006, 2008, and 2009 (since 2010 just kind of cleared the decks of the remaining flotsam and jetsam), I’ll briefly remind everyone that the Indians netted Travis Hafner (and Aaron Myette) for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese back in December of 2002 and regardless of what you think of Hafner now (and I happen to be excited to have him back, even at a lesser percentage of his former self while believing that he needs to be rested more), that’s still grand larceny.

Again, though fans have used the “Annual Fire Sale” rhetoric as part of the explanation of why they’re “down” on the Indians, since 2002, the Tribe has really only parted with players of note in four seasons. Maybe four Julys out of nine is too many (though it has sped up TWO rebuilds in that time) and certainly some of those Julys were impossibly painful, but let’s take a look at the players (of note) traded in those three Julys and the players that arrived on the North Coast in those deals, taking a holistic approach to those four Trading Deadlines.

For the purposes of brevity (not my strong suit), I’m only including the major trades and omitted some of the throw-ins (Shawn Nottingham will not be found here and if you know what trade he was involved in…well, there’s something for you somewhere), including mainly players that you remember playing for the Tribe or as part of trades coming to Cleveland:

2006

Traded

Bob Wickman

Ben Broussard

Ronnie Belliard

Eduardo Perez

Received

Shin-Soo Choo

Asdrubal Cabrera

Hector Luna

Max Ramirez

So, that’s trading the team’s closer, 2B, and 1B platoon – players all scheduled to be FA at the end of that 2006 season – for what would become the team’s future SS and RF. Remember, Ramirez was traded for Kenny Lofton the following year, so…um, yeah, that was a good season at the Trading Post.

2008

Traded

CC Sabathia

Casey Blake

Received

Carlos Santana

Mike Brantley

Matt LaPorta

Rob Bryson

Obviously, here’s where the hand-wringing begins and much (if not all) of it is caused by the performance to date by a certain 27-year-old in Columbus (who is likely to stay in Columbus), but if you’re talking about what the team netted that summer in deals, they got an All-Star catcher in Santana (now signed through 2017) and a starting OF in Brantley. Even if Brantley’s career numbers have underwhelmed (and the fact that everyone loves his “pedigree” and “swing” despite his actual “production” still confuses me), remember that it was reported by the LA Daily news that Frank McCourt nixed a deal that would have sent CC, Blake, and Carroll (the last of those two would end up in Chavez Ravine eventually) for a package that could have included Matt Kemp (seriously, go click on that link…and this one that shows the whole LA Daily News article, no longer in their archives) or perhaps even Kemp and Santana. But the deal didn’t happen and the CC trade has ended up as a major failure, even if the moves that the team made in 2008 resulted in nearly ¼ of their lineup for the foreseeable future in Santana and Brantley.

2009

Traded

Cliff Lee

Victor Martinez

Mark DeRosa

Rafael Betancourt

Ryan Garko

Ben Francisco

Received

Justin Masterson

Chris Perez

Nick Hagadone

Carlos Carrasco

Jason Donald

Lou Marson

Bryan Price

Scott Barnes

Connor Graham

Jason Knapp

Since most people forget that Carlos Carrasco was the best Indians’ pitcher in the months of May and June last year and since there is much consternation still (most deserved) for the Cliff Lee trade not bearing more fruit, look at this list and think about if Carrasco were healthy for this season as that “received” list would include 40% of the rotation and what looks to be the back-end-of-the-bullpen for a couple of years. Of course, Carrasco is not healthy and yes, the Lee deal has been underwhelming (just as every deal involving Lee has been as the three players the Phillies received for him at the end of 2009 all remain in the Minors and the package the Mariners netted for him have all underwhelmed, particularly the “centerpiece” Justin Smoak), but the Indians spent this July loading up on needed arms and seem to have hit on some (Masterson, Hagadone), missed on others (Knapp), with the jury still out on even more (Carrasco, Barnes, Price). Certainly, I’m not going to revisit this Cliff Lee deal every couple of months (nor do I know what other deals were on the table for the Tribe and note that Kyle Drabek is still walking nearly 6 hitters per 9 innings this year with Domonic Brown STILL in AAA for the Phillies), but to look at the total return for these players – rather than looking at individual deals – does provide some perspective as to how this current Tribe team has been built…even with the hits and misses at the Trading Post.

Now if you want to include 2010 that completely cleared the decks, here’s what you had:

2010

Traded

Jake Westbrook

Kerry Wood

Jhonny Peralta

Austin Kearns

Russell Branyan

Received

Zach McAllister

Corey Kluber

Giovanni Soto

Zeke Carrera

Juan Diaz

It’s still a little early to pass judgment on a lot of these deals, since they happened less than two years ago, even if McAllister has ascended to the starting rotation for the parent club already and Soto looks to be a keeper in Akron. Regardless of what happens with that 2010 “crop” of players, the Indians netted a middle of the order (Choo, Cabrera, Santana) as well an everyday OF in Brantley, a young arm that topped last year’s rotation in Masterson, and back-end-of-the-bullpen pieces in Perez and Hagadone with the trades made in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

Of course we well all wish that LaPorta is something that he is not (despite the claims from people who want to see him NOW…the same people that wanted him gone all of last year) and Cookie Carrasco’s injury puts a major damper on the Lee deal as Marson and Donald continue to struggle to hit and Knapp is…well, somewhere I guess. But complaining about ONE specific trade or railing against THIS specific player misses the forest for the trees as the Indians cleared the decks (a couple of times) and, through some hits and misses, they’ve assembled a team that looks to be poised to take us into a fun summer of contention and complaining about what the Indians are NOT instead of what they may be is (while decidedly a “Cleveland” thing to do) to avoid what’s taking shape this season with this Indians’ team.

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As for as their probable competition for a summer of contention, as much as the Tigers were essentially handed the AL Central crown as soon as they added Prince Fielder, seeing the team (as presently constructed), anyone else feeling a lot better about the Indians’ chances to stick around in this race, or even stay in the driver’s seat?

Though it was known going into the season, it is striking how top-heavy the Tigers really are and how they are unable to execute the little things (like applying tags, making simple defensive plays, etc.) that good teams are able to do. Maybe they still just press down the accelerator at some point, but the way that most of their team is playing right now, that’s hard to see. Granted, it was hard to see last year at this time as well, but Jonah Keri at Grantland nailed it earlier in the week:

Justin Verlander seems to throw one-hitters every other day, so let’s talk about a factor playing a much bigger role in the Tigers’ year-to-date record: The horrible failure of their supporting cast. It’s been unbelievably awful. Ryan Raburn has been arguably the worst hitter in baseball, at .144/.213/.216. Ramon Santiago’s at .184/.254/.250. Brennan Boesch is hitting .239 with a .271 OBP. Alex Avila hit a 42-hopper through a drawn-in infield Sunday, cashing the eventual winning run and snapping a 4-for-40 slump; he’s hitting .221 with a .299 OBP.

Certainly, Verlander is scary and Miggy and Prince are formidable in the middle of their lineup, but those guys have to perform at almost an otherworldly level to carry the rest of the team as they’re playing right now.

Seriously, their Opening Day lineup featured Boesch in the 2^nd spot, Delmon Young hitting 5^th, and Ryan Rayburn hitting 6^th. None of those players have an OPS over .700 and it looks as if Alex Avila may have turned back into a pumpkin after his Cinderella 2011 season while Jhonny Peralta (2 HR) looks much more like the Jhonny Peralta that we all grew to know and…well, just know for the last couple of years.

Austin Jackson, Prince, and Miggy will certainly score runs, but with their defensive deficiencies and with the absolute black holes in their lineup outside of that trio, it’s easy to see why national writers are starting to scale back on this idea that the AL Central is simply the property of the Tigers, as the Indians now have the highest current percent chance of making the playoffs, as calculated by both ESPN and Baseball Prospectus.

It may be…well, May, but the tide may have turned in the AL Central or at least may be turning…

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Finally, as “wins” are often cited to measure the worth of a pitcher, I will point out that Tuesday’s victory over the Tigers gave Ubaldo his 5^th win of the season in the Indians first 42 games. Thus, they’ve played about 26% of their season which (and you see where I’m going with this) means that Ubaldo – he of the 5.02 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with more walks that strikeouts – is “on pace” for a 20-win season.

Still think “wins” are an accurate measure of a pitcher’s value?

Winning the Summer on A Lazy Sunday

2012-05-20T08:46:00.000-04:00

Earlier this weekend, I was taking in my 5-year-old’s game of “soccer” when another one of the parents noticed my Tribe hat (this glorious beauty) and sidled up to me. He nodded to my hat and asked me, “the Tribe still in 1^st place”?

Noting his head-to-toe Browns’ gear and the tone/phrasing of the question (as if to express astonishment at the current standings while intimating in six words that it simply will not last), I answered as briefly and quickly as I could, coming back with the old “yep”, while feigning interest in the “action” on the field as the scrum of kids surrounding a soccer ball moved slowly back and forth. He immediately fired back with a “won’t last”, prompting me to blurt out (against my better judgment) that it was about ¼ of the way into the season and that it was almost Memorial Day.

Sensing that I was actually an Indians’ fan, he pounced on me with the best sports-talk radio caller voice he could muster, looking me up and down and spitting out “doesn’t matter who’s in 1^st place on Memorial Day…talk to me when they’re in 1^st place in October”.

Still kicking myself for even engaging in this “discussion” and tasting the bile in my mouth while my ears turned warm, I decided to take the higher road on it, yelling to him as he walked away, “sounds good…we’ll talk then”. As I soothed myself with the reality that this “fan” has a summer staring him in the face where he’s going to be poring over reports of how players threw a ball or caught a ball while wearing shorts and a helmet while I immerse myself in the glory of a baseball season, the tête-à-tête stuck with me. Getting past the notion that this “discussion” generated such hostility in this Cleveland sports fan (who seemed to be anxious to prove to me that the Indians couldn’t keep winning) on a pleasant Saturday morning and how absurd that really is, I don’t think that the point of view that this “fan” had is all that unique to Clevelanders as they relate to the Tribe and their start this year.

They know the Indians are in 1^st place and – whether it’s because that kid from Akron broke their collective hearts before taking his talents (and apparent shortcomings) to South Beach or because they are still upset about the CC or Lee trades (not that Sabathia and Clifton Phifer were universally adored while here as people constantly railed against CC’s weight and only really took to Lee late in his 2008 Cy Young campaign) or because they’re too busy convincing themselves that THIS is the NFL Draft where their beloved Browns actually got things right – they’re just waiting for the bottom to fall out of this Tribe team. For whatever reason, they’re kind of hoping for it, so they can say “I told you so” in September or October if the Indians aren’t able to maintain their 1^st place lead throughout the summer

And since I’m past the point of this point of view enraging me (it is sports after all and the current blissful state of my life precludes me from really getting THAT upset about this stuff), so I’m just saddened and confused by the whole segment of Clevelanders that can’t really enjoy success from one of their sports teams, even if that success turns out to be fleeting. While I’m more and more of the opinion that this Tribe success isn’t going to be fleeting this year – with the offensive pieces starting to come together, a solid bullpen, and a rotation that could (yes, I said COULD) get into a groove that would make this team all that more competitive – to know that people are missing out on the maturation of a young, exciting team just makes me sad.

It makes me sad because as people wait for the other shoe to drop or wait to espouse their “told ya so” attitude on those of us that are enjoying this, they’re missing a pair of games like the ones that the Indians just completed against the Mariners. After watching Carlos Santana race around 3rd base and fly into home like Superman, scoring from 2nd after one of the oddest plays you’ll ever see, then seeing the Indians come back (twice) on Thursday to beat The Atomic Wedgie and his Mariners (who are 1-4 against the Indians and…ahem…5-1 against the Tigers), you started to get the sense that something special might be building.

But still people continue to be skeptical…

And that’s fine in the grand scheme of things as anyone can do or believe what they want to but earlier in the week, I heard Terry Pluto on the radio, discussing the lack of interest and support in the Indians to date, saying that the Indians are always going to struggle to draw to begin the year. While I think that there is a good deal of validity to something that Pluto’s co-worker at the PD pointed out, Pluto’s rationale for the lukewarm interest to start every season centers on the idea that the Indians never “win the Winter”, which means that they don’t generate optimism or excitement in the off-season that carries into the beginning of the season. He posited that some of that was due to not having something like the NFL Draft or the NBA Draft Lottery that creates built-in excitement that the team doesn’t even really have to work for as ANYONE that the Cavs or Browns (in particular) draft is going to generate more excitement than anything that the Indians could ever do or would ever do in the off-season.

Some of that is the idea that hope springs eternal in Cleveland, except for the Indians.

There is some validity to this I think, in that every winter we hear what the Indians AREN’T doing or HAVEN’T done and even when the moves that they’ve made work out early in the season (or whenever, really), the Indians are only partially extolled for their decisions. The juxtaposition of the Marlins being in town – a team that unquestionably “won the Winter” – should not be overlooked here as the Indians’ offseason ran in stark contrast to what we saw down in Miami, with the Marlins’ Winter drawing headlines and capturing the imagination in a way that the Indians are likely never to replicate. Yet, of all the off-season additions between the two teams, Derek Lowe has performed the best and while that may or may not last, it is worth noting that the Marlins’ big additions (Reyes, Bell, and Buehrle) have all failed to live up to expectations.

The Marlins’ season hasn’t come off the rails (already) like the Angels (the other team that “won the winter”) has as the Marlins are hanging around in the NL East and will likely stick in the NL East race as well as staying relevant in the NL Wild Card race. But for all of their additions (Reyes, Bell, Buehrle, Kearns…just seeing if you were paying attention), the impact of those players hasn’t been as profound as what Derek Lowe has (good piece on perspective with Lowe) done so far. Maybe that won’t continue with Lowe and maybe people will continue to harp away that they didn’t add Beltran (though they did make an offer that was “very close” to what the Cardinals offered) or Carlos Pena (despite that they reportedly offered $8M to him, or $750K more than he signed for to return to Tampa), even if neither of those players seem very interested in coming to the North Coast.

Maybe Willingham is the “one that got away” (and he has to be wondering why in the world the Twins signed him) even if it would have meant overpaying for him to net his services. As I wrote after Willingham and Cuddyer signed, “the 3-year, $21M deal for the Twins feels like less of a ‘gamble’ than most and looked palatable for the Tribe, particularly with Hafner coming off of the books after this season” and Willingham’s early production has justified his contract for now. It may be different when that 3^rdyear rolls around (and maybe the Twins dangle him at some point as they obviously need a talent infusion), but the Indians made the decision to pass on offering that 3^rd guaranteed year.

While fools like me offered options like Gaby Sanchez (ahem, .562 OPS) and Marlon Byrd (um, .475 OPS) as potential trade targets because the thinness of the offense scared me, the Indians decided to rely on the contributions of the two players that they DID extend this Winter (how do the Santana and Asdrubal extensions look right now…talk about “winning the Winter”) as well as attempting to upgrade their roster with limited cost and risk.

Maybe that strategy ultimately catches up to them (and don’t take that to mean that I wouldn’t love a bat in LF or 1B…still), but the Indians are still in 1^st place as we approach Memorial Day. Additionally, given that the team did allegedly make a significant offer to Beltran (the link from Hoynes above tells me so) and that they offered Pena $8M, then settled for Kotchman at $3M, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this team makes additions as they deem them to be necessary going forward. They showed the level of aggressiveness in acquiring Ubaldo last year that fans had always pined for and while the performance of Ubaldo has been…um, uneven…maybe improving, the Indians’ current Front Office has shown some chutzpah and willingness to assume risk that could continue.

Regardless of whether that comes to pass or not (and, again, it’s fun to be on the “Buy” side of the Trading Deadline, even if that is a solid two months away), if you look at thte moves that they’ve made recently, you get the idea that (with some notable exceptions) maybe this team knows what they’re doing and while every move that they’ve made isn’t going to be universally successful (and here is proof that this team makes a lot of sense in their utilization of players or at least is able to articulate it), but they’ve added Derek Lowe and Jack Hannahan (most notably) in the past two off-seasons without much given up and without high price tags attached to them. Those under-the-radar additions have had an impact in augmenting the group of youngsters acquired via trades and the draft to the point that the Indians’ rebuild has taken less than 4 years.

Ask the folks in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or Kansas City if that’s impressive…

To see this team mature and to know it was built, with Choo, Cabrera, and Santana coming in trades for Broussard, Eduardo, and Blake and with young players (Kipnis, Gomez, nearly all of the relievers) arriving to MLB and thriving cannot help but inspire confidence and excitement. Yet, people are still obsessing over what the Indians didn’t do or lamenting the recent past or the players that are no longer here instead of focusing on what they’re doing…you know, during the season, on the field.

Maybe people are still upset about the descent from 2007 to the depths of 2010, but the Joe Carter bobblehead giveaway is interesting to use as context as most people generally remember Carter for the Alomar/Baerga trade than anything he did as an Indian…and it is here that I note that he had a career .781 OPS as an Indian (3,493 PA), a little below the .787 OPS that Casey Blake posted in his time (3,358 PA) as an Indian. Though his inclusion on the SI cover (with the White Knight) remains a seminal moment of my childhood and I can still picture a PD illustration after he won the RBI title in the 1986 season, Carter isn’t remembered by many for his contributions on the field, but rather what his contributions for the Tribe led to. While my Joe Carter Starting Lineup figure now graces the bookshelf in my boys’ bedroom (next to my old Greg Swindell one), he is more commonly associated with the trade that brought the first couple of pieces of that 1990s run (Sandy and Carlos) to the North Coast.

What people often fail to remember is that the Indians didn’t reach the 80-win mark in ANY of the first 4 years (1990 season through 1993 season) that Sandy and Baerga were on the Indians. The 1994 season is when the team (obviously) took off in the strike-shortened season, with Sandy (whose poster hung in my brother’s bedroom, before the Indians were actually good) and Carlos in their fifth full seasons in MLB. Those dark days early in the duo’s career were followed by the brightest times we’ve ever experienced as a franchise and Carter is remembered for playing a role in that, even if it took over 5 years (the trade happened in 1989) for that to materialize.

But that’s all that people remember now – the winning – and the role that Sandy and Carlos played in it with a constant nod to Carter for…well, for being the player that was traded that started (eventually) those halcyon days and those winning ways at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Maybe winning is really the balm for it all and the Indians not “winning” in 2007 and not “winning” Winter after Winter has taken it’s toll on a fanbase that looks increasingly disinterested and embarrasses a town that has always prided itself on alleged sports passion. Regardless of what’s coming, there is little debate that after not “winning the Winter”, the Indians have unquestionably “won” the Spring.

Whether they’re able to continue their “winning” ways into the Summer and the Fall, only time will tell…

Tomahawks From the Top

2012-05-16T21:40:00.002-04:00

As we all say thank goodness for the Twins (who are now 73-125 since they got swept out of the 2010 ALDS) to save us from ourselves after the close to the Red Sox series that had everyone running to the 480 bridge while echoing the chorus that “THIS TEAM CAN’T HIT LHP” narrative with the brilliant inclusion of Batting Average vs. LHP as the provided “proof”, it’s time to dispel some inaccuracies, use some comparisons, and look to the future for this Indians team.

Starting with this whole vs. LHP “issue”, everyone realizes that the Indians have the 9th highest OPS vs. LHP in AL, the 8th highest wOBA vs. LHP in the AL (above the Tigers), and have the highest BB rate vs. LHP in all of baseball. A juggernaut vs. LHP they are not (there are 14 AL teams)…but check out those links and see that while the Indians’ performance against LHP leaves much to be desired, it has been fairly middle-of-the-road compared to the league and placed in the proper context. If you want to continue to use Batting Average (which is not a completely useless stat, just one that shouldn’t be used as a stand-alone stat), that’s fine, but the fact that we’ve evolved past back-of-the-baseball card analysis elsewhere (and OPS and wOBA are pretty easy stats to understand and pretty useful) means that we need to look past this Batting Average vs. LHP “issue”.

Saying “they’re not the worst” may feel like a flimsy argument, but we knew going into the season that this team was going to be LH-heavy. Of course, a RH bat in there would look great, but Acta nailed the situation (probably after being badgered about this whole LH thing again) this past weekend, saying “no one is sitting here saying that Choo, Brantley, Kipnis are platoon players. They were going to play against righties and lefties, regardless of our situation. . . . Should we trade Choo and Kipnis for right-handed hitters?”

Full disclosure that I was behind the idea of Brantley as a platoon player…but point made.

The Indians are hitting RH pitching fairly well (.754 OPS, 5th in MLB), but the fact that their OPS vs. LHP ranks 16^th in all of MLB starts to dispel this notion that they’re unquestionably the WORST team in MLB vs. LHP as there are actually two teams (the White Sox – with RH Paul Konerko – and the Nationals) below the .600 OPS line vs. LHP.

Yes, a RH 1B or RH LF (and don’t you say his name because I’m getting to him while not mentioning his name because of the moratorium) would work in the middle of the lineup, but as I hope against hope that Mike Brantley has actually figured out this “hitting” thing (and I could care less WHERE he hits as long as he IS hitting, although his May OPS of .697 isn’t that much different than his April OPS of .677) and gladly welcome my Big League Choo back with open arms (1.050 OPS in the last week), I’m going to ignore this vs, LHP “issue” until someone can provide some compelling evidence that this team CANNOT hit LHP…and evidence that doesn’t rely solely on Batting Average.

With that off my chest (for now), let’s get some Tomahawks in the air…

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In the wake of the Derek Lowe complete game shutout, some have started to compare this 2012 team’s start to the one from just a year ago, positing that this year’s incarnation is lacking in the starting pitching department to date since Lowe is carrying this pitching staff. While I’m not going to disagree with that as Masterson or (gulp) Ubaldo getting on track makes season-long contention that much more possible, it is worth comparing the start to the last two seasons for the rotations, in terms of expectations and early returns. That is to say that the early outings for Masterson and Ubaldo have been…um, uneven and that the middle-to-back-end of the rotation (mainly Lowe and Jeanmar) have kept the Indians atop the Central to date.

But if you remember back to last May, isn’t that kind of what happened last year too?

Lest you forget, this was the rotation that broke camp last year…in this order:

Carmona/Hernandez

Carrasco

Masterson

Tomlin

Talbot

Yes, Jeanmar had worked his way into the mix in April and Al White made his first appearance at the end of April, but once Talbot got healthy, that was the rotation into July for a team that was sitting at the top of the AL Central for much of that time. Seriously, Mitch Talbot – who not even a year later is pitching for the SAMSUNG LIONS in the KOREAN LEAGUE – logged eleven starts for the team before the All-Star Break and would end the year unleashing his own particular brand of “Fury” with the 5^th most starts (12) on a team that would finish 80-82.

Sure, you say…but Masterson had a great 2011 season and Tomlin had a great 1^st half while Carrasco showed the type of promise that makes his injury all the more painful now. That’s all true, but GOING into 2011, who saw that coming from Masterson or Tomlin?

Essentially, in the first couple of months of the 2011 season we saw the middle-to-back-end of the rotation become the top and the top of the rotation slip into inconsistency, making them much less effective than the pitchers that they were thought to be ahead of in the rotation when 2011 started.

Now, think of this year…

Already, we’ve seen the 3^rd starter (Lowe) vault into the position of being the Tribe’s best starter (just as Masterson did last year) and we’ve seen Jeanmar throw solidly in the first month-and-a-half of the season, just as Tomlin did last year. Yes, Masterson and Ubaldo have been overwhelming disappointments, but the 2012 rotation is getting the same kind of surprise production from arms that weren’t being counted on as front-of-the-rotation pitchers in the early going.

Just to put some hard numbers to this, compare where the Opening Day rotation stood around this time last year and where this year’s incarnation does:

2011 Staff through mid-to-late May in order of Opening Day Rotation

Carmona/Hernandez – 4.76 ERA on May 19, 2011

Carrasco – 5.16 ERA on May 22, 2011

Masterson – 2.52 ERA on May 18, 2011

Tomlin – 2.56 ERA on May 16, 2011

Talbot – 5.87 ERA on May 25, 2011

2012 Staff through May 15^th in order of Opening Day Rotation

Masterson – 5.40 ERA

Ubaldo – 5.18 ERA

Lowe – 2.05 ERA

Tomlin – 4.67 ERA

Jeanmar – 3.75 ERA

Disappointment at the top and pleasant surprises in the middle-to-back in both groupings…

Two pitchers with an ERA over 5.00 on each staff, one close to 5.00 and two “surprises” to lead the staff made up your FIRST-PLACE rotation for the 2011 team at this time last year and similar production from (strangely) similar spots in the rotation for the 2012 Tribe. While you can certainly say that the way that the 2011 rotation was unable to sustain their success provides a foreboding feeling for this group going forward, the success of Derek Lowe provides hope that the Indians can straighten out their “top 2” (or at least Masterson) this year.

If you’ll remember, the Tribe targeted Lowe VERY early in the off-season, fleecing the Braves by trading only a minor-league arm (who is still in AA) for him AND having the Braves pay $10M of his $15M salary in 2012. He was targeted because the Indians saw something in his mechanics that was easily “fixable” and, if “fixed”, could result in a return to effectiveness for him. It has been an achievement in scouting and coaching (wait…by the Indians and their Polo Shirt Mafia Front Office, who spend all their time poring over spreadsheets?) and, given that the Indians were able to identify and correct Lowe’s issues, it provides some hope that they can identify and (perhaps) improve a pitcher like Masterson or even…gulp, Ubaldo.

Sure, Ubaldo may be too far gone (because he looks it) or he may not be as receptive as an eager-to-prove-himself Lowe was when he arrived in Cleveland, but the Indians (obviously) targeted Jimenez last July with the idea that they could “fix” him as they seem to have with Lowe. “Fixing” Ubaldo may never materialize and he may become Fausto v.2.0, in terms of frustration and unfulfilled talent. But remember that the 2011 Indians contended on the strength of their rotation, with the lion’s share of the contributions coming from unforeseen sources.

Now that Zach McAllister has arrived for a while (and it’s easy to forget that both he and Jeanmar are only 24 years old) and the Indians’ rotation could have some moving pieces here. While I’m not sure if a DL stint is in the offing for Ubaldo (and I think they’ve almost suggested to him that he’s injured, if only because Acta says he asks him SO much if he’s healthy) if his mechanics remain messy, but Corey Kluber (acquired for Westbrook in what seems like a trade from a decade ago) and Scotty Barnes (netted for Ryan Garko) are two other starters in AAA who are averaging more than a K an inning while limiting opposing hitters to an OPS under .700. Neither of those guys scream “big-time pitching prospect” (though Barnes has always intrigued me), but let’s remember that Tomlin and Gomez have graduated to MLB and surprised in their brief time there.

Last year, the Indians rotation led from the back and, if the early returns provide a glimpse, we may be seeing it again with the hope that the “front” (Masterson and…have to say it, Ubaldo) can rebound to their former selves (or some semblance of their former selves) to continue to set the pace in the AL Central.

__________

For whatever reason, every team “features” a whipping boy for fans and critics alike to rail against. While vitriol is inexplicably always reserved for the 24^th or 25^th man on the roster (as I’m not sure I understand what hating Aaron Cunningham accomplishes and have NO problem with this team carrying Dan Wheeler – a veteran reliever with a track record who was here merely to mop up and absorb innings in losses – for 6 weeks), Casey Kotchman finds himself firmly in the crosshairs of most Tribe fans, who have deluded themselves to believe that a player who was unquestionably not the “answer” last year (and who still isn’t the “answer” this year…and has 1 XBH and a .557 OPS in his last 10 games) represents an upgrade, merely because he ISN’T Casey Kotchman.

However, if you go into this realizing what Casey Kotchman is (and isn’t), what he’s done is pretty much what we’ve expected – he’s played stellar defense and will have hot and cold stretches at the plate with the cold stretches likely to cause the hand-wringing and moaning that we experienced in April. However, Kotchman has a .759 OPS in May (nestled between Choo and Santana for the month to date) and – while that won’t make anyone begin making a bronze casting for Cooperstown – it certainly brings him into the level of acceptable or respectable production. What his recent run at the plate has done is raise his season totals to the point that he’s creeping ever closer to a .600 OPS. And while that’s said with the tongue firmly in cheek, check out where he now ranks among MLB 1B in OPS, above Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Gaby Sanchez (who, admittedly was on my “wish list” this off-season), Al Pujols and Ike Davis. Unfortunately, that perspective is what gets lost too often as people rail against this player or that player as Kotchman’s 3 HR mean that he has more than Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Lee (another player that everyone wanted to target this off-season), and the aforementioned Pujols and Gaby Sanchez.

Don’t take this to mean that I’m comfortable just putting Casey Kotchman out there at 1B for the rest of the season…it’s an attempt to provide some context to the situation. That is, Kotchman is who we knew who was, is getting paid $3M (the Tribe signed Branyan to a $1.5M deal in 2010 and traded him in late June of that year) for the season, and once (or if) a better alternative presents itself, I’m all for upgrading the roster by improving at 1B. That doesn’t mean that Kotchman would go the way of Branyan or any of the other Tribe 1B of the past (meaning that he wouldn’t automatically become a Mariner) as his defense is a special skill, but that alternative hasn’t presented itself and – almost, but not entirely, independent of Kotchman’s performance at the plate – he should stay there until it does.

__________

With that said, it is fun around this time of the year to play the “would this guy be available” game and while I’ve seen or heard the Josh Willingham and Kevin Youkilis conjecture (and here is Buster Olney thinking that Youkilis may not be long for Boston) dating back to last off-season, there was something in a recent article on B-Pro that caught my eye. The article focused on where the Padres are going (which is nowhere) and how San Diego may become a trading post, and perhaps very soon. In the piece Geoff Young (who is the founder of Ducksnorts, a Padres’ blog) goes in-depth into the Padres’ roster, providing some insight into some different players that may be made available if the Padres’ season continues to circle the drain.

One name in particular stood out in the piece that Young dubbed likely to be available:

Carlos Quentin, LF (29): The man that Josh Byrnes let get away in Arizona, formerly represented by Jeff Moorad (he almost owned the Padres, sort of, for a few years... until one day he didn’t) started the season on the disabled list and is currently rehabbing in the minors. There was speculation when the Padres traded for Quentin that they might try to lock him up long-term, but given his spotty health record and the fact that Petco Park isn’t the ideal place for a slow, slugging outfielder (Ryan Ludwick sends his regards), this may not be the best option. As with Huston Street, though, he needs to get healthy before any moves are made.

--snip--

I don’t expect Street or Quentin to fetch much. If I were the Padres, I’d be looking for more middle-infield depth in the high minors; failing that, I’d take a shot on guys at lower levels with live arms who maybe haven’t translated stuff into results.

When Quentin was moved in the off-season from the South Side to San Diego, it felt like the type of move that the Indians should have been in on, even if their…um, relationship with the White Sox Front Office (one minor trade since 1994) probably prevented it.

Realizing that Quentin is hurt (and his “repaired” right knee may not be all that healthy if it flares up when he gets into his batting stance) and that he may or may not even be on the field until June, unless Johnny Damon can break out of his “Spring Training mode” with a flurry, the Indians could be looking to upgrade in LF…again. Maybe the Tribe is thinking that Sizemore’s return will push the suddenly rejuvenated Brantley to LF, but if Young is right that the Padres would target “middle-infield depth in the high minors”, that’s something that the Indians could actually offer in the form of Cord Phelps or even the recently-demoted Jason Donald. As the author says, he doesn’t expect “Quentin to fetch much”, but he could become a nice option in LF or at DH for the 2^nd half of the season…assuming health, of course.

__________

Regardless of what’s to come or how the Indians attempt to find another band-aid in LF or 1B (or if they even are able to), let’s go back to what was written this past weekend and realize that this is fun. This is fun to follow a 1^st place team and fun to target other teams’ players as possibilities for Trading Deadline reinforcements. While it isn’t ALWAYS fun, it is hard to remember what Carlos Santana once famously said…“this is the baseball”.

Living in the Now On a Lazy Sunday

2012-05-13T07:01:00.000-04:00

On the day in which we all (hopefully) properly appreciate our Mothers and Wives, maybe it’s time to appreciate what’s happening with this Indians’ team and attempt to live in the “now” instead of overanalyzing the past (admittedly guilty here) or waiting impatiently for that other shoe to drop. It is nearly mid-May and this Indians’ team is once again in 1^st place and, while the end of 2011 (after an even hotter start) left…um, a little to be desired, as have the years since 2007, when did we all become so bitter and cynical that we can’t enjoy a 1^stplace team and are preoccupied by ancillary topics?

Maybe that bitterness and cynicism is ingrained in us as Cleveland fans, but has the collective misery grown to such a degree that instead of talking about a 1^st place team in mid-May and what they ARE and COULD BE, we’re talking about and listing all the reasons that people are giving for not enjoying this or creating excuses to justify their extended misery to the point that a diversion from life – like baseball or sports – becomes a source of vitriol and unpleasantness?

For the past week, I’ve seen that dead horse on the ground over there – the Tribe’s attendance issue – get worked over…not that it means that there weren’t pieces that don’t deserve your eyes, with Let’s Go Tribe providing eye-opening hard analysis, Zach Meisel giving the pertinent quotes and story, and with Anthony Castrovince penning the takeaway that I’ve felt about this apparent new rite of Spring on the North Coast for long enough that I’m tired of forming an “opinion” on this attendance “issue” year after year. Back in July of 2007, I wrote a piece wondering “Where is Everyone?” as the Indians ranked 25^th in attendance, despite being 52-30 (!!!) and with the team about to run away with the AL Central, en route to the ALCS. Much of what was written then still applies (though the names have changed) and I’m tired of pretending that this attendance “issue” is one that we’re just opening our doors to find staring us in the face. This has been happening for nearly a decade now, through two complete tear-downs and rebuilds and anyone who feigns surprise or attempts to posit an individual reason (because there are many) for why this is the case isn’t being honest with themselves or wants to stand on some higher moral ground.

The attendance conversation is a conversation that takes place every year as it represents a lazy talking point for a local media that has grown increasingly lazy and uninterested in the team as a whole or in what transpires on the field, instead racing for page clicks by feeding the beast of pessimism and negativity that has pervaded this town. Instead of reading or hearing thoughtful analysis about the team, the conversation turns to the hot-button issue (the attendance), and maybe some of that is a by-product of the times we live in and maybe some of it comes as a result of the Indians’ place in the pecking order (as I’m forced to watch TJ Ward tackle a Chris Farley impersonator in front of a car on a TV commercial over and over again), but what disappoints is that it (the attendance, or lack thereof) becomes SOLELY the focus of the Indians’ coverage, despite the Indians being in 1^st place.

Now, if you want to have a discussion about whether Cleveland is still a 3-team town or if the soon-to-open casino is going to take people AWAY from coming to Tribe games –as Clevelanders can’t seem to get in line fast enough to continue to give Dan Gilbert their money (and the benefit of the doubt), despite his history – that’s an interesting conversation…even if it’s one that nobody really wants to have. Regardless, the attendance issue has been here, is here, and is likely to be here and I’m tired of it detracting from my enjoyment of this team. Because in case you haven’t noticed (and here is where I show restraint to not quote Harry Doyle), the Indians came out of the gates fast (again) and are atop the AL Central (again) as we approach the 40-game mark.

And while everyone is off thinking, kvetching, or attempting to justify the lack of attendance, they’re missing a young team that (again) has gotten off to a hot start and is making strides toward what could be an awfully fun summer. While the attendance talk may be compelling at some level, the fact that Shapiro told Zach Meisel that the Indians are “not surprised and not worried” about the attendance means that the Indians aren’t in the same situation as the White Sox were last yearand may not be all that relevant to the way that the ballclub operates or anticipates its revenue…so why should we even pay attention to it?

What deserves our attention is THIS team and, despite the fact that we’re still getting to know these players (while subconsciously attempting to NOT get too attached to them because we know how MLB works), this Indians’ team has exciting, likable, and compelling players that are quickly becoming part of our sports enjoyment. Now, the excitement may not be fully palpable as the fact that a lot of these players don’t have a long track record that guarantees any future success, meaning we’re all kind of (as my friend Tyler put it) “waiting for the Tigers to ignite” and take off in the division. But that hasn’t happened and while there is concern in the rotation (as Ubaldo goes under the video “microscope” again) as well as dark spots in the lineup and front end of the bullpen, there are players and trends that are emerging on this team that have to excite even the most bitter and cynical Indians’ “fan”.

Perhaps my thinking on this is colored by watching many of the games thus far this season with my baseball-obsessed 5-year-old, who gets genuinely excited every time that Kipnis comes to the plate and jumps up when Kotchman (whom he quite innocently calls “Katie” before I correct him, leading to his embarrassment) makes a phenomenal play at 1B. He gets worried when Sipp loads the bases and makes innocuous statements like, “you know Ubaldo isn’t really pitching that well Dad, because he keeps walking people”, but it doesn’t detract from the interest and building love that he has for baseball and for the Indians. Maybe that’s setting him up for a lifetime of disappointment (and I often wonder this as a parent), but baseball is fun for him – fun to watch, fun to talk about, and fun to think about.

Frankly, isn’t that why we spend our time following a sport like baseball and a team like the Indians…for the fun of it?

Certainly, what’s transpired since those halcyon days in October of 2007 have left many people wondering when the “fun” starts again, but the current Indians’ team does have a bit of that spark to them. No…they’re not perfect and yes, this might not last, but let’s all acknowledge that the team has 5 players right now that are among the top 35 or 40 AL hitters in a number of categories and for a fanbase (present company included) that spent a good majority of the off-season complaining about being a “bat away”, check out where these players rank in some offensive categories among AL hitters:

Cabrera

.950 OPS (8^th in AL)

168 OPS+ (6^th in AL)

.410 wOBA (8^th in AL)

Kipnis

.844 OPS (22^nd in AL)

136 OPS+ (22^nd in AL)

.373 wOBA (21^st in AL)

Hannahan

.843 OPS (24^th in AL)

138 OPS+ (18^th in AL)

.364 wOBA (24^th in AL)

Hafner

.839 OPS (26^th in AL)

138 OPS+ (20^th in AL)

.367 wOBA (23^rd in AL)

Santana

.803 OPS (36^th in AL)

128 OPS+ (28^th in AL)

.351 wOBA (33^rd in AL)

Check out those lists (here and here) to fully grasp how other teams’ players rank in those categories and how that Indians’ quintet stacks up…right now, at least.

While that may not necessarily be sustainable for some of them (Hannahan is higher on each of these lists than BOTH Miggy and Prince), there are pieces and parts that are becoming more than just “pieces and parts” and it (surprisingly) may not include The BLC. Certainly, the “return” of Choo would make this offense that much more potent (as I note that Brantley and Kotchman are at the bottom of most of those lists, even if they’re each improving and the 29-year-old Kotchman has a higher OPS in the month of May in MLB at .772 than the 27-year-old “He Who Shall Not Be Named” does in the month of May in AAA at .669), but the troika a Cabrera, Kipnis, and Santana form quite a triumvirate…and one that isn’t going away for a while.

Beyond the offense (which is still tops in the AL Central in runs scored per game), the bullpen boasts some strong arms and, even if the relievers are not universally dominant, to see the back-end of a bullpen emerge this early in a season is nearly unprecedented in these parts. Throw in the personas of this crew (and I’m talking individually, not as a group) and the Indians’ bullpen is full of talented young players that are still rising and don’t figure to go away for a while.

So how about enjoying the “rise” of these players?

How about the organization touting THESE players to generate fan interest instead of relying on nostalgia – either real (like Lofton) or perceived (the Joe Carter bobblehead) – to draw the interest of the fanbase? Sure, there may be some hesitation to promote individual players, knowing what we know about how these players eventually end up wearing uniforms that don’t say “CLEVELAND”, but this is an exciting group of players who is winning games in a compelling way, night in and night out.

Certainly, there are question marks and points of concern that may be distracting, but outside of that team from Arlington (that the Tribe took 2 of 3 from) that is lapping the field in the AL West, most MLB teams have question marks and concerns.

Rather than endlessly focusing on those deficiencies (and admittedly, I’m as guilty of this as anyone by revisiting past drafts and the failure of certain trades or picking a whipping boy(s) to wail away at), why not see players like Cabrera, Kipnis, Santana, Masterson, Pestano, Perez for what they are – a new “core” of a still-building, yet burgeoning, team?

Often, I think of that brilliant rethinking of the “What If” that Scott Bricker did at LGT last year (which, at the time, represented a sharp departure from what that ad campaign had been, with the Indians adopting something close to this after Brick put it together) and wonder why we can’t wonder what’s going to happen in the positive sense?

This is a young and exciting team and Johnny Damon said as much to B-Pro’s John Perrotto in a recent interview:

On what he can bring to the American League Central-leading Indians:

“Hopefully I can teach these guys a few things, but this is a pretty good club with or without me. This team is pretty awesome. They have a chance to win now, but they’re also developing for the future and not too many teams can say that. That was very enticing to me to join this club, plus the fact they wanted me. Over the last couple years, I’ve been a mentor to teams, probably teaching them too much if you look at the Tigers and Tampa Bay. But that’s what I do. I want everyone to have a fair shake at this game and approach the way I approach it. Hopefully we’ll be very good here this year and these young kids will be great for the future.”

--snip--

On joining a franchise that hasn’t won a World Series since 1948:

“I know Cleveland needs something to grasp on to right now. I remember coming here from 1995-2000 and how crazy this place was and how the fans rallied behind the team. It was special and we feel this is a team that can do it, too. Hopefully it happens this year but I know in the years to come they think they can help revive the city.”

Certainly, Damon’s always been good for a solid quote (here’s a great piece from the New York Times on Damon and this Tribe team) and he may or may not actually believe this, but whether HE does or not, why can’t we?

Damon says that the Indians “have a chance to win now, but they’re also developing for the future and not too many teams can say that” and while you can take that with a grain of salt if you want to, it doesn’t change the fact that it is mid-May and the Indians are in 1^st place…so, how about enjoying this?

So much time is spent analyzing the past to figure out how we got here or worrying about a future to wonder where we’re going, we forget to enjoy the present…the “now” that we’re seeing as this team is winning exciting games, with marketable, bankable young players that can’t really be boasted anywhere else on the Cleveland sports landscape, if you’re looking at actual production and not just projection.

Maybe you don’t want to hear (or believe) that “Cleveland needs something to grasp on to right now” with Damon remembering the never-going-to-happen-again electricity of the late-90’s as it invokes the attendance “discussion” once more, but this town needs something tangible to appreciate. The Indians have, once again, come out of the gates fast as they attempt to capture the hearts of a town that so badly wants a winner with all of its heart while attempting to avoid the heartbreak that has caused our skepticism.

Whether or not they can capture those hearts or continue to capture those wins remains to be seen, but it sure will be fun finding out…

Catching Up With the System

2012-05-09T19:30:00.000-04:00

It’s no secret that I believe that catcher is the most important position on the baseball field. The catcher controls the game defensively, works with the pitching staff, and is basically the quarterback on the field. The Indians are fortunate to have an offensive star and underrated defender behind the plate in Carlos Santana, a guy who clearly put in a lot of work this offseason in improving his defense. They’re also lucky enough to have former Gold Glove catcher Sandy Alomar on the big league coaching staff, and former catcher Dave Wallace as their minor league catching coordinator. Wallace was an elite defensive catcher in his own right, spending seven seasons in the minor leagues but never quite hitting enough to get a shot in the show. Having Wallace shepherd the catchers in the organization is a fantastic opportunity, as if anyone knows how to play the position it is Wallace. He’s managing the Lake County Captains this year as well after spending last season at the helm of the Mahoning Valley Scrappers. Wallace is a rising star in the organization, and has future major league manager written all over him. I got a chance to sit down with Wallace in spring training and talk to him about the catchers in the organization, and we had a really good talk about the players he has come to know so well.

The first catcher we talked about isn’t really a catcher anymore, as the Indians decided this offseason that Chun Chen’s bat was too far ahead of his glove and have moved him primarily to first base. Signed as an international free agent in 2008, Chen has caught just three games for AA Akron this year, while playing 16 at 1B and 7 at DH. I asked Wallace what Chen had to do in order to stay behind the plate, and he talked about how much Chen has improved behind the plate in the past couple of years, but still how far he had to go in terms of cleaning up his release, working on his footwork, and just not rushing things when he’s behind the dish. Wallace believes that with time, Chen could become an adequate defensive catcher, but with an organization that’s so stocked with catchers and relatively barren at corner infield though, the decision was made to move Chen from catcher to 1B.

The 23-year old converted 3B is now hitting .289/.367/.392 for AA Akron this year, with just 1 HR, 7 RBI, 12 BB and 26 K in 26 games. He hit .262/.330/.451 with 16 HR in the Eastern League last year, so while the AVG and OBP have improved, the power hasn’t really materialized yet this year. As a catcher, Chen’s bat is outstanding, but as a first baseman it is merely average. If he’s going to have a future as a first baseman at the major league level, the bat is going to have to improve. I think that if the Indians didn’t have such an embarrassment of riches at the catcher position in the system, Chen would still be a full-time catcher today. As Wallace said in our interview, “to have this many quality catchers in the system is a little rare; we’ve talked about it amongst the staff how fortunate we are as an organization back there.”

Going from one extreme to the other, we next discussed AA Akron’s primary catcher, Roberto Perez. When I told Wallace that Perez was the best defensive catcher I’d ever seen up close, he agreed, saying “I would agree with that; he’s special back there. A lot of times we like to use big league guys as examples for these guys to watch film, and the guy I compare Roberto to is Yadier Molina. I do not do that without the utmost respect for Yadier, as he’s the best in the bigs right now, but mannerisms, skill, talent…Roberto looks like him back there and really does some stuff that reminds you of Yadier.” That’s the ultimate compliment that you can pay to a guy defensively, and the outgoing Wallace used a hushed, almost revered tone when making the comparison. Perez is a tremendous catch-and-throw guy who moves well behind the plate, blocks everything in the dirt, really handles his pitchers well and absolutely controls the other teams running game.

With all that being said, why is Perez not regarded more highly as a top prospect in the system? Well, as good as his defense is, Perez struggles with the bat. His career line as a professional is .241/.369/.350 with 12 HR in 288 games. He’s got good patience, a little bit of power, but not much of a hit tool. This season with AA Akron, he’s put up a line of .234/.315/.344 with 1 HR, 6 BB and 17 K in 21 games. Because of his struggles with the bat, Perez’s ceiling is probably a defense-oriented backup catcher in the major leagues. Still, that can be a valuable role on a team and Perez can carve out a long career in that role. He’s got one major-league quality tool already, and that’s more than most players in AA can say.

Drafted in the 4^th round in last year’s draft, catcher Jake Lowery played for Wallace last year in Mahoning Valley and jumped straight to high-A Carolina this year. He started out hot for the Scrappers last season, but started to wear down as the strain of a full college season plus the New York-Penn League season took their toll on the young catcher, but still ended up hitting .245/.377/.415 with 6 HR and 43 RBI in 69 games for the Scrappers. He’s an offense-oriented catcher who won the Johnny Bench Award out of James Madison University last year. I asked Wallace about Lowery’s offense as well as his defense. “He won the Johnny Bench award, but that’s an award based mostly on offensive stats. Obviously we like his bat, but he’s got the tools to be a very good defensive catcher as well. His arm strength is very apparent, especially when you see him throw from his knees. That isn’t necessarily something we go out of our way to teach guys but he’s proven to us that he can do it consistently, accurately, then we’re not going to make him stop.”

Lowery is off to a decent start this year with high-A Carolina, hitting .257/.330/.356 in the pitching-dominated Carolina League. He has one HR, 7 2B, 11 BB and 34 K in 27 games for the Mudcats. More than anything, he’s provided solid defense and leadership from behind the plate, something Wallace expected out of the youngster. “In the short time he’s been with us, he’s show the intangibles and leadership abilities necessary to be back there. He does a good job calling a game, and is another guy we’re really excited about coming out of last year’s draft.”

Another talented young backstop in the system is local boy Alex Lavisky out of St. Edward’s High School in Lakewood. Lavisky was aggressively assigned to low-A Lake County in 2011 after being selected in the 8^th round of the 2010 draft for his professional debut. He struggled offensively, but had no problems with the glove. I asked Wallace about his defense, and he responded by telling me that, “he’s (Lavisky) solid defensively, he’s guy that with two strikes and the winning run on 3^rd, the pitcher’s not scared to throw a slider in the dirt because he knows Alex is going to block it. His work ethic is 2^nd to none; no one is going to outwork him out there.” Lavisky doesn’t look like a kid less than 2 years removed from high school out there. He’s a physically mature kid who moves well behind the plate and has a cannon for an arm.

As good as Lavisky was defensively last year, he really struggled at the plate. He hit just .207/.251/.391 with 8 HR and 24 RBI in 49 games for the Captains, striking out 66 times against just 9 walks. Those are ugly numbers no matter how you slice them, and Lavisky was sent down to the New York-Penn League when short season play opened in June. He didn’t fare any better against that competition, hitting .201/.276/.328 with 5 HR in 68 games. The tools and raw talent are there, they just aren’t materializing in games just yet. Wallace isn’t worried about Lavisky’s offensive future though. “We don’t worry about his offensive production last year. He probably worries a lot more about it than we do. He’s got a bright future ahead of him.” Back in Lake County this season, Lavisky opened the season on a hot streak but has cooled off of late and is hitting a familiar .229/.283/.333 with a HR and 13 RBI in 24 games for the Captains. He has improved his K/BB ratio, but it’s still not pretty as he’s drawn 7 free passes and struck out 30 times. From a tools perspective, Lavisky has everything you’d want in a catcher. He just needs to work on pitch recognition and selection, improve his approach and start swinging at pitches that he can drive so his tremendous raw power can present itself more in game situations.

A guy who’s flown under the radar after being selected in the 7^th round last year is Michigan native Eric Haase. Haase was committed to come south to Columbus and play his college ball at The Ohio State University, but never made it past I-90 and was diverted East to Cleveland. Haase made a brief debut in the instructional league last year after signing, and really impressed the coaching staff with how much good weight he put on last winter. “Just to see how he grew up physically over the offseason was impressive; the intangibles are all there, the skills are all there, it’s just a matter of refining them.” Haase is still just 19 years old, but was one of the more impressive players I saw in Goodyear. He’s the rare catcher that really does have all five tools, as he was his team’s leadoff hitter, best pitcher, starting catcher and occasional third baseman in high school. He’s got outstanding speed for a catcher, has touched the mid-90’s on the mound, and has downright shocking power to the opposite field. I saw him hit several balls out to right field in batting practice, and it’s easy power that comes from a fluid, line-drive swing. It’s still awfully early to make any kind of assessment on a kid who hasn’t even played in short-season ball yet, but the Indians may have really gotten themselves a steal in the 7^th round last year. There’s no doubt that the tools are there, they just need to be refined and show up in game situations as well. And did I mention that Haase wanted to get out of Michigan and play at The Ohio State University? I mean, the kid clearly has outstanding judgement.

The bottom line here is that from Akron all the way down to extended spring training in Goodyear, the Indians are loaded at the most important position on the diamond. The players are not without flaws and by no means are they all going to end up as productive major leaguers, but there’s a lot of talent back there. If you like defense, there’s Roberto Perez. If you like offense, Chun Chen’s still catching a little. If you want to dream on the future, Alex Lavisky and Eric Haase are probably more your taste and if you want a well-rounded guy who was productive in college, Jake Lowery is your guy. Any way you look at it though, the Indians have a bright future behind the dish, and that’s not even including potential all-star Carlos Santana, who is just 26-years old and under club control through 2017. For a guy who loves to watch quality catchers, it doesn’t get much better than that.

Finding Someone Like Choo on A Lazy Sunday

2012-05-06T07:00:00.000-04:00

In the midst of a Mr. Mom weekend (with The DiaBride off in the Windy City with her sister getting pedicures or massages or whatever happens on these types of trips) that will culminate in a trip down the corner of Carnegie and Ontario for me and my two boys and as the Indians continue to stick around atop the AL Central, something is starting to build. Maybe it’s building because the Tigers are looking no better than the rest of the division (though this is when I remind you that they didn’t take off until the last quarter of the season last year) or maybe it’s because the Indians are playing some solid baseball. Are the Indians the well-oiled machine that the Rangers look like, able to club their way to victory while enjoying solid pitching, playing in games that they just look like they’re going to eventually win?

Of course not as red flags are flying everywhere around this team, but they’ve pieced together some wins, and as their schedule remains tough this week (or at least tougher than it’s been), the Indians figure to keep pace in an AL Central that looks weaker and weaker with each passing week as the Indians (!) have highest runs per game average in their division…really, the Indians have averaged 4.625 runs per game to the Tigers’ average of 4.30 runs per game.

Despite the fact that there are obvious holes in the Indians’ lineup, the fact that the Tribe (going into Saturday night) has the 2^ndmost runs per game of any team in the AL Central and AL West (the Rangers are better, as is EVERY team in the AL East to date) and with the arrival of Johnny Damon to lengthen the quality of their lineup, it’s worth examining what each of the offensive regulars have done to date and compare it to the rest of the AL to provide to proper context because (as you can tell by the title) the Indians are doing this offensively with some players that have pleasantly surprised, some that have just about lived up to what was expected of them, and one player who may hold the key to the Indians season.

And with that, let’s get it going on a Lazy One…

In an attempt to really quantify what the offensive regulars have done (even if it’s just for 24 or so games), it’s laughable to use any stat that uses defense as a component for 25 games (or even 162 games), but let’s take a look at where the Indians’ regulars rank in wOBA (explanation here…and the 2011 leaderboard here to point out that it’s a worthwhile metric) and OPS, two pretty accurate measures of a players’ offensive contributions. Remember context is important here as comparing players on the Indians to players that play their positions reveal how they stack up against their peers and, more pointedly, their peers at their own positions.

Though I have no idea why there aren’t 14 players listed in each of these categories (info via Fangraphs), since I’m pretty sure you get it, here we go:

C – Carlos Santana

.368 wOBA – 3^rd among AL C

.840 OPS – 3^rd among AL C

1B – Casey Kotchman

.238 wOBA – 11^th among AL 1B (ahead of Justin Smoak and…wait for it…PUJOLS!)

.506 OPS – 12^th among AL 1B (behind Smoak, but still ahead of Pujols)

2B – Jason Kipnis

.396 wOBA – 1^st among AL 2B

.898 OPS – 2^nd among AL 2B (behind Kinsler)

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera

.367 wOBA – 2^nd among AL SS

.859 OPS – 2^nd among AL SS

3B – Jack Hannahan

.363 wOBA – 5^th among AL 3B

.844 OPS – 5^th among AL 3B

LF – Shelley Duncan

.327 wOBA – 8^th among AL LF

.744 OPS – 8^th among AL LF

CF – Mike Brantley

.261 wOBA – 11^th among AL CF

.626 OPS – 11^th among AL CF (last among qualified in both categories)

RF – Shin-Soo Choo

.310 wOBA – 8^th among AL RF

.665 OPS – 12^th among AL RF

DH – Travis Hafner

.380 wOBA – 5^th among AL DH

.878 OPS – 6^th among AL DH

Certainly, I’m not going to make any grand pronouncements after 24 games on any of these players, but a couple of things stand out here. First, Hafner has looked great (though they should be resting him more) as the numbers being put up by the other DH’s in the AL are ludicrous enough that his rankings don’t quite do justice to what he’s contributed. Of course, some of that is based on expectations for him coming into the season, but those numbers are nice to see out of Pronk…regardless of where we are in the season.

As for the other players under long-term contracts, Santana and Asdrubal are…um, awesome. But that’s old news…

As for the other player that ranks among the Top 3 at his position, did anyone know that Kipnis was tops among AL 2B in wOBA?

Lest you forget, that’s a group that includes Ian Kinsler and Dustin PEDroia as those comparisons that Acta made in Spring Training of Kipnis to Utley, Pedroia, and Joe Morgan…OK, he never said Joe Morgan, but you get the idea that it may not be all that far-fetched. Interestingly, in his 1^st 60 MLB games, he has an .864 OPS (141 OPS+) and 12 2B and 11 HR…again, that’s in 60 games. Extrapolating any of these stats out is always dangerous stuff, but B-Ref puts his 162-game average at 32 2B, 11 3B, and 30 HR if he would continue at this clip.

That’s special for a 25-year-old middle infielder.

For that quartet (Cabrera, Santana, Hafner, and Kipnis) there was hope that they could carry this offense and they’ve done just that. And although one name is missing in the parentheses from the previous sentence, in terms of players that we had high hopes for, let’s just dispense with the Kotchman disappointment. There’s no question that he’s been otherworldly bad at the plate, but not atrocious enough for “He Who Shall Not be Named” to re-enter the lexicon…at least not to me, not yet. Also, if we’re talking about expectations, unless you were buying that Kotchman-Lasik garbage (and you shouldn’t have been), we kind of knew that Kotchman couldn’t hit. It’s likely that we didn’t think he’d be this bad at the plate, but expectations were never really high for him.

Keeping with expectations, Brantley hasn’t done anything to change the low expectations that he now carries around like an anchor and Duncan did about what you would have thought he’d do. Hopefully they can maximize Duncan’s effectiveness now that Damon has arrived as he, like Hannahan (who has wildly exceeded expectations, as we continue to see how long this can last) has firmly established himself as a solid contributor on a winning team.

If you’ve noticed who has avoided being placed under the microscope’s glass (and, again, the title should let you know where this is going), the real outlier here, in terms of expectations and performance to date is Shin-Soo Choo. After essentially carrying this team’s offensive burden on his own for 2+ years, The BLC now finds himself in an extended rut. Certainly, his performance on Friday night offered a reminder of what he’s been and provides hope for what he perhaps could be once again, but those performances have been in short supply since the start of the 2011 season. Obviously, Choo’s…um, “difficult” 2011 season has been well-documented, but without getting into the contract distraction, the DUI and the fallout from that (locally or, more pointedly, in his native South Korea) or the injuries, it’s interesting to look at where Choo has been in the past and in the more recent past, in an attempt to see if Choo – as we once knew him – could be coming back…because it would sure provide a spark to this 2012 team.

While this has seemingly been forgotten as Choo has struggled for more than a year, Choo’s cumulative wOBA (since we’ve already used that) from 2008 to 2010 was .390. While that may not be all that impressive because it lacks context, how’s this for context – that was the 14^th highest wOBA in that 3-year stretch, with Choo coming in just behind Josh Hamilton. He finished just ahead of (in order) Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, and…hell, here’s the list. During that time, Choo’s offensive contributions for the Indians so vastly outpaced anybody elseon those teams (that weren’t all that good) that he was taken for granted – partly because of the fact that he didn’t have much around him, but more accurately because of his consistency.

Just to illustrate that “consistency”, here’s what Choo did in 2009 and 2010:

Choo – 2009 (156 games)

.300 BA / .394 OBP / .489 SLG / .883 OPS with 38 2B & 20 HR in 583 PA

Choo – 2010 (144 games)

.300 BA / .401 OBP / .484 SLG / .885 OPS with 31 2B & 22 HR in 550 PA

Over more than 1,100 plate appearances, that consistency (and consistent excellence) is absurd. Now, since the beginning of the 2011 season to now, Choo’s numbers are decidedly less consistent and certainly less than excellent:

Choo – 2011 to now (103 games)

.250 BA / .343 OBP / .378 SLG / .721 OPS with 16 2B and 9 HR in 443 PA

Maybe we’re seeing a normalization of BABIP for Choo (as his BABIP was always – though consistently – high) as his BABIP has dropped significantly in the last two years (his BABIP is .280 this year after being in the .360 to .380 range from 2008 to 2010) or maybe his injuries have prevented him from getting into the groove that he occupied for the better part of 2+ years. Perhaps the injuries that have festered have robbed him of his effectiveness or aggressiveness to the point of self-doubt, although his K rates, BB rates and Line Drive rates have all stayed relatively similar to where they were when he was among the AL’s elite at the plate.

Regardless “what’s” happened to Choo, something has certainly occurred as his production has fallen off of a cliff. And as much hand-wringing is done with Ubaldo (and justifiably so…and this piece from Zach Meisel is a terrific look and numbers while Kyle Boddy takes an actual look at his mechanics, with some astounding revelations), the offensive player on this team – other than Hafner – that has a track record of elite production in the lineup is Choo (who makes more than Ubaldo this year), production that hasn’t been seen since the beginning of 2011.

Don’t think that the Indians don’t know that Choo represents what could be the tipping point for their offense, if you’ll remember Hannahan’s comment after the KC melee, in which he said, “You hit our studs, we hit your studs” (as Gomez plunked Moustakas). While Choo hasn’t been a “stud” for longer than a year, his performance in MLB has earned him that reputation in the Indians’ clubhouse and one has to think that Hannahan standing up for Choo could have been more about the player he was protecting (Choo) in an effort to show Choo how much his teammates think of him (and perhaps need him back) more than words can convey.

Watching the current offense rely on the production of Santana, Cabrera, Kipnis, and Hafner (with occasional offense from Hannahan or some other source) one can’t help but wonder what a Choo v2008-v2010 could do to this lineup. Inserting the Choo that we saw (and probably underappreciated) for the better part of 2+ years would dramatically alter this offense and team. Seeing his performance on Friday night was a startling reminder of that as the Indians (behind Choo) stood toe-to-toe with the team that could be the best team in baseball right now.

Less than a year ago, The BLC attempted to philosophize his struggles to Anthony Castrovince, famously saying, “You know a frog goes down, because he wants to go forward more? I try to think like that” meaning that (as AC put it last June) “Choo hopes what’s transpired the last three months will prove to be his low point before a sudden surge that eclipses anything he’s done previously at the Major League level”.

If last June represented Choo in a “crouch”, he’s only slipped deeper into said crouch. If that “sudden surge” out brings him forward and anything close to his past level of production, the entire Indians’ offense could “leap” into the driver’s seat in the AL Central and take the whole city on a summer ride that won’t soon be forgotten.

Tomahawks Coming, Going, Hitting, & Missing

2012-05-02T20:53:00.000-04:00

Though most of the NorthCoast is embroiled in a backup QB debate (a favorite past time in Cleveland, although new to May), the Indians’ season rolls on into a decidedly more difficult part of the schedule. After leaving Chicago, the Indians welcome the big, bad Rangers (who are a cresting juggernaut right now) to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, before welcoming these same Pale Hose to Cleveland in what could be a pivotal week or so as the Indians try to keep pace in the Central against what seem to be more staunch opponents.

Whether they are able to find their offense or gain some consistency in the rotation remains to be seen but as the Indians attempt to carry their April success into May, while adapting, augmenting, and (hopefully) improving on the fly, let’s get some Tomahawks in the air.

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As the hand-wringing and wailing (justifiably) reaches a fever pitch with Ubaldo, after Tuesday night’s disaster on the South Side, we have unquestionably reached a tipping point with the player that the Indians acquired last year to front their rotation. Having seen Ubaldo since he’s arrived to the North Coast (and particularly this year), we know what the problems are – that he’s throwing too many pitches, that he’s walking too many hitters, that he’s not missing many (any?) bats, but do you realize how poorly he’s pitching in the context of MLB pitchers in some pretty important categories?

First, he’s averaging 18.6 pitches per inning, 3rd highest among qualified pitchers in the AL, and that’s fine if you’re a GB pitcher like Derek Lowe or are a strikeout pitcher like David Price as you’re either setting the hitter up to make weak contact or to make no contact at all…but Jimenez is neither. His GB rate this year is 38.2% (he was close to or above 50% in his last 2+ years in Colorado) and his K/9 this year (4.4) is almost HALF of what it was going into the 2011 season.

Most concerning about that 2^nd number (his K/9) is that he’s just not missing bats, something that was once his trademark. Jimenez is getting hitters to swing and miss at only 4.9% of his pitches, which is the 7th lowest amount among the 130 pitchers with 20 or more IP this year. For a player that had a swinging strike rate near or above 9% for most of his career, it means that Ubaldo has devolved from being among the elite in swinging strike rates to the bottom of the league in the same category…and that is not insignificant.

As a result, as Ubaldo seems to know that he’s not going to miss many bats and has no faith in his fastball, we get the nibbling that we’ve seen (which accompanies the high pitch counts – that I could care less about with him as we’re not “protecting” him from anything) and the high number of free passes handed out. How high of a number?

He has walked FIFTEEN percent of the batters he’s faced this year, highest among MLB starters and, just to provide some context here, the highest BB% last year was Gio Gonzalez’s 10.5%, which was preceded by Jonathan Sanchez’s 11.9% as the high percentage in 2010. Again, Ubaldo has walked 15% of the hitters he’s faced to date.

While all of this may be just going deeper into what we already know (while depressing us to no end), there’s no question that the Ubaldo we’re seeing is a different pitcher than the one that plied his trade in Denver. Whether the change is physical (his velocity is down and his command has deserted him) or mental (as this whole tiff with seemingly ALL of his old Rockies’ teammates is suddenly relevant), the fact is that this v.2012 isn’t even who Ubaldo was last year, as he seems to have regressed from his uneven 2011 season.

Without even getting tied up in what was given up for Ubaldo (Pomz recently missed a start with “forearm tightness”…not a good thing for a young arm, while Al White is in AAA after being beat out by Jaime Moyer for a spot in the Rox’ rotation), the tipping point is upon us as something has to give here in terms of what the Indians do with Jimenez.

Is there something physically wrong with him?

If not, do they “find” an injury to send him off to clear his head and re-work his mechanics?

Is he even open to that idea?

As for whether he’s open to it, Jordan Bastian passes along some interesting info in his latest blog, reporting that:

Manager Manny Acta and Jimenez both noted that the pitcher is working on some mechanical adjustments that will take a few starts. Jimenez said it involves his front shoulder, and the hope is that it will help generate more power. He said pitchign coach Scott Radinsky noticed a flaw between the pitcher’s 2010 form and what he’s been doing over the past two years. Fingers crossed.

“Fingers crossed” indeed…

Perhaps Radinsky found that flaw, as he (or someone else) made adjustments to Lowe’s mechanics in 2011 and made the changes, with the results looking GREAT to date, and maybe Ubaldo puts the brakes on this rapid descent down the mountain. At this point, that feels hard to imagine, as getting Ubaldo back to even mediocre feels like a long climb. After Ubaldo failed to live up to (much less exceed) expectations last year as his performance played a role in the Indians’ slide in the standings (though he was certainly not solely culpable), it is now on him and the organization to fix what has broken him in the last few years.

That is, if he is fixable…

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The other big news in the Windy City is the arrival of Johnny Damon to man LF and to sit (for now) at the top of the lineup. Damon’s arrival is the culmination of a long and winding road for the Indians to find somebody (anybody) to man LF after Grady Sizemore went down with his back injury. Though it’s not worth re-hashing the whole timeline, the Indians tried to find some value in the scrap heap of OF and, as those players revealed why they were on the scrap heap, nearly acquired Bobby Abreu (since cut) from the Angels. That (as well as some serious misses in trades and drafts) brings us to Damon’s debut as it sounds as if Damon will play nearly every day, with most of that time coming in LF.

As a quick aside here, prompted by the link above that plots out how integral the failure of Matt LaPorta has been to get us to this point, there will now be a moratorium in this space on Matt LaPorta/Matt MaTola (or any other reference to the player that wore #7 last year for the Indians) as the Indians have now spent more than $9M (Sizemore, Kotchman, and now Damon) to NOT have LaPorta even sniff Cleveland. While I’m forced to endlessly read about his feats in Columbus (and this is when I point out that he’s struck out 20 times in 91 plate appearances against AAA pitching as a 27-year-old), I refuse to believe that he is a viable option at 1B or LF in 2012 or at any point going further in the eyes of the organization…and I have no issue with that. If you figure that the two players who were NRI’s prior to the 2011 season started on the 2012 Tribe in what would have been the two options for Laporta to fill (1B and LF) and talk was given to Bobby Abreu and Ryan Spilborghs and a whole other cast of characters this Spring while LaPorta remained largely invisible in the conversation.

“Invisible” is how he will remain in this space – 2012 performance in AAA considered…

Off the soapbox and back to Damon’s debut, having Damon on the roster essentially means that the Opening Day LF – Shelley Duncan – will revert back to his role as a LF/1B/DH who hits from the right side, a role that has always suited him best. That’s not to say that Duncan isn’t a valuable piece for a team like the Indians, just that Duncan isn’t really a suitable everyday option, something that the Indians obviously believed from the time that Sizemore went down with his injury.

Many have asserted that Duncan’s recent stretch indicate that he is not suited as an everyday player (while I think his entire body of work is a better indicator), though it is interesting to note a particular date in Duncan’s backslide:

Duncan’s 1^st 37 PA this year through April 17^th

.333 BA / .514 OBP / .593 SLG / 1.106 OPS with 6 K, 10 BB, 3 XBH

Duncan’s last 43 PA this year after April 17^th

.189 BA / .256 OBP / .297 SLG / .553 OPS with 16 K, 4 BB, 1 XBH

That second batch of numbers includes Duncan’s HR on Tuesday and it’s an interesting comparison to see to illustrate that just as it’s dangerous to draw conclusions on Duncan’s start (and people were hopping on the Shelley Wagon early on), it’s just as foolhardy to draw them on what’s happened to him since April 17^th.

In case you were wondering about the significance of that date, Damon’s signing became official on…wait for it…April 17^th. Regardless of the effect that Damon’s signing had on Duncan’s performance, to know what Shelley Duncan is going to do this year as he’s not as good as that one set of numbers would indicate, nor is he as bad as the second set intimates.

While we see how Acta begins to shuffle Damon and Duncan around (and I’d put Damon in LF every day and put Duncan at 1B vs. LHP to spell Kotchman), what may be even more interesting to see evolve is how Damon, Duncan, and Brantley perform in the next month or so. What will make that interesting is that most assume that when Sizemore returns, Brantley will slot back to LF and Damon will use his “gentleman’s agreement” to find his way out of Cleveland. But what if Damon outperforms Brantley over the next four to six weeks and Sizemore is ready to return in mid-June or so?

Is it THAT hard to envision the Indians holding on to Damon and slotting Brantley as a glorified 4^th OF/continued insurance against another Sizemore injury?

Certainly, a lot can happen between now and then, and Brantley has looked better but Brantley has the lowest wOBA among regular CF in the AL, with only Francoeur, Viciedo, and Boesch lower than him among all OF in the AL. While he has continued to be hailed a top-of-the-order hitter and a speed merchant, his career OBP is now .315 in 1,030 PA and he has 29 career SB in 233 career games.

For context on that SB total, Jason Kipnis has 10 SB in his first 57 MLB games.

While I’m not saying that Damon will be appreciably better than what we’ve seen from Brantley (or Duncan), it’s not outrageous to envision Sizemore returning and Brantley settling into the 4^th OF role (around Damon, Sizemore, and Choo) with Duncan as the RH 1B/DH that suits him. Just as the Damon signing lengthens the roster by putting Duncan in the role previously occupied by Jose Lopez, you’d be talking about jettisoning Cunningham and keeping Damon around as the LF with Brantley as the 4^th OF/protection for Sizemore.

Given Sizemore’s (well-documented) injury history as well as Brantley’s injury history and struggles to date in MLB, I’m not so sure that Damon is the “rental” that some (OK...me) assumed him to be. But there’s plenty of time for all of that to bear out as Johnny Damon is officially a Cleveland Indian as the Tribe attempts to improve their offense and overall roster, even if the improvement is incremental as any improvement – even “incremental” – is something this offense needs right now.

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With Vinnie Pestano having struck out a hitter in EVERY one of his appearances (which is wild if you think about it) and now that it looks like Nick Hagadone has arrived for good, the Indians’ bullpen is suddenly boasting some legitimate strikeout arms. While the Tribe may not be K-heavy up and down the bullpen ladder, realize that Pestano has struck out 14 of the 41 hitters he’s faced (34% of the batters) and Hagadone has already struck out 5 of the 17 hitters he’s faced (29%) in his brief time as an Indian. Going back to the idea that Ubaldo isn’t missing many (any) bats, realize that Hagadone (13.5%) and Pestano (12%) are the team’s leader in swinging strike rates. Certainly, the small sample size siren blares away, but that’s all you really have with relievers and as the Indians’ bullpen continues to be a strength, see Tribe relievers miss bats (small sample or not) is exciting.

Interestingly, the propensity to miss bats among relievers is not limited to the relievers in Cleveland though as Bryce Stowell was put squarely under the microscope when Buster Olney tweeted about Stowell’s numbers to date being “very, very interesting”. The reason they’re so interesting is that Stowell has struck out 15 and walked none in his first 7 innings pitched, but just to continue the K/Batter Faced idea above, realize that Stowell has faced 23 batters in 7 innings, or he’s recorded 21 outs in 23 batters and FIFTEEN of his 21 outs have been via the K and he’s faced only 2 above the minimum in his first 7 IP of work in Akron.

While you may want to chalk this up to a pitcher in a level that is beneath him, talent-wise, realize that these K totals are nothing new as he struck out 37% of the batters he faced in 2010, when he spent time in Kinston, Akron, and Columbus and matched that Whiff Percentage (37%) in his 2011 campaign. Now, he’s back to his whiffing ways, striking out SIXTY-FIVE percent of the hitters he’s faced so far this year.

Yes, Stowell is 25 and dominating AA hitters and the 22^ndRound Pick in 2008 probably could use some time in AAA to refine his repertoire, but his performance conjures memories of another late-round pick reliever that started his age-25 season in AA and thrived, using it to catapult him into the Indians’ bullpen and eventually into the back-end of said bullpen. Of course, the precedent (and a hopeful one at that) is Vinnie F. Pestano, who started his 2010 season (age 25) in AA, where he struck out 33% of the batters he faced in AA in 2010, then proceeded to whiff 31% of the batters he faced in AAA later that same year.

In 2011, he whiffed 34% of the hitters he faced in MLB as he continued to miss bats, something that has continued this year in the back-end of the Tribe bullpen. The lesson with Pestano – in hindsight – is that when these guys miss that many bats, you start to take notice. Unless you’re talking about a mid-to-late-20s arm in low-level Minors, if a player is able to strike out more than 1/3 of the batters he faces, there seems to be a correlation that he would continue to miss bats as he climbs the Minor League ladder, assuming his BB rates stay in control.

Fortunately for the Indians, it doesn’t end with Stowell as Bryan Price (though older and in AA also) would be another arm to watch as he’s whiffed 19 of the 48 hitters (39%) he’s faced in Akron this year, a serious jump from his previous year at the same level. While I’m not going to present a possibility for the jump in strikeouts for Price (the 3^rd pitcher the Indians netted from Boston for Victor), it will be interesting to see if he can continue the momentum early in his 2012 campaign into positioning himself for a chance at a spot in the Tribe’s rotation going forward.

Hard as it may be to believe, the K/Batter Faced numbers for Price (while impressive) actually pale in comparison to what Cody Allen has done at three (Kinston, Akron, and Columbus…already) levels this year. Allen has struck out a staggering 20 of the 45 batters he’s faced (44%) and has now moved up to Columbus, leapfrogging both Stowell and Price in the process. While Allen’s success may be fleeting, realize that he’s walked 14 of the 215 batters he’s faced since joining the Indians’ organization and has struck out 95 of those hitters, meaning he has struck out nearly 7 times the batters he has walked.

How the continued promotions of that trio plays out remains to be seen, but there is one other aspect here that is worth noting, and that has to do with usage. In case you forgot, I went off on a bit of a manifesto a couple of weeks ago as to whether a better “mouse trap” could be devised for building bullpens, given the idea that the modern bullpen has proven to be no more effective than the bullpen configurations of the past. While I never went in-depth as to how this would be implemented in MLB, one thought that has often existed was to have relievers throw more than just one inning, to limit the amount of relievers needed per game.

Interestingly, Bryan Price has thrown 2 or more innings in each of his 5 outings this year while Bryce Stowell’s last two outings were for 3 innings (on 4-16), then 2 innings (on 4-20), and Cody Allen went 2 innings in his first (and only) appearance as a Clipper. To provide some further intrigue, in Hagadone’s last 4 outings in Columbus, 3 of them were for multiple innings. Seeing this, are the Indians conditioning these guys (in the Minors) to be able to pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen?

Maybe these multiple inning outings are nothing more than these arms hitting pitch counts, but if you’re looking at the top 4 reliever prospects that are closest to Cleveland, it’s probably Hagadone, Allen, Stowell, and Price (and probably in that order…although I’d put CC Lee in there as well) and all of them have thrown multiple innings in their last few appearances in Columbus and Akron

While I won’t call that the seeds of a “bullpen revolution”, it is interesting to note that these guys are throwing multiple innings and are missing A LOT of bats in Columbus and Akron. Whether they can continue that success – the way that Vinnie Pestano did and Nick Hagadone seems to have – remains to be seen, but the Indians’ bullpen could continue to be a strength of this team as the Indians have lined up some power arms that rack up strikeouts up and down the system.

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Finally, you may or may not have noticed this, but while the Rangers run away with the AL West (yes, at the beginning of May) and as EVERY team in the AL East has a positive run differential, the AL Central boasts what look like the worst two teams in the AL (KC and Minnesota) in the early going. Interestingly, while the Indians got fat on their early schedule, the Tigers are 2-7 in their last 9 games, including going 1-4 against the Mariners and Royals.

This AL Central race, flawed as it may continue to be, could continue to hold our interest…even longer than the annual Browns’ QB derby.

A Lazy Sunday of Appreciation and Anticipation

2012-04-29T07:07:00.000-04:00

While most of the North Coast takes their magnifying glass to the NFL Draft (said by many to be the Browns’ Annual Super Bowl…and one that they’ve not exactly thrived in since their return) and as another portion of Clevelanders prepare for the NBA Lottery on May 30^th (as the Cavaliers finish a two-year stretch in which they posted the fewest wins since the 1982 to 1984 teams…not that I don’t “approve” of them getting the third most ping-pong balls), you may or may not have noticed, but the Indians are preparing to enter May in 1^st Place in their division.

Are they tied for 1^st Place?

Yes…and it can certainly be argued that the Indians simply took advantage of a favorable schedule in the early going (and I’ll actually make that argument if you want to hear it) and that this is still ultimately a flawed team (again, no dissension on that point as they have a negative run differential), but in a town where “hope” is the operative word for sports franchises in recent years, the Indians are once again off to a hot start and – while that hasn’t been reflected at the turnstiles – they finish their April comparing favorably to the other teams in their division and…well, maybe it’s time to appreciate that.

Since so much of the conversation in the past week revolves around what young players “could be” or how they project in the NFL or NBA or how “promise” is there to build upon, maybe it’s time to take a look at a couple of players who have graduated from the “could” side of the ledger into the “are” side and whose “promise” has been realized in short order. While the Browns and the Cavs certainly have talented young players (who may or may not live up to the projections being heaped on them), the Indians have some very exciting players that have established themselves as elite players and have positioned themselves to perhaps occupy the upper echelon among MLB players going forward and appreciating them for what they are while anticipating what’s to come is something that’s not done often enough in a world in which the negatives are examined to death (guilty here) while the positives are taken for granted to some degree.

So while the sports-talk radio crowd (when they’re not talking about how a 4^th Rounder fits into a “scheme) and the Twitterverse harps away at the deficiencies of Kotchman, Brantley, Wheeler, and others, what often gets lost is that we’re watching a couple of players cement their position as the pillars that the Indians figure to be built on…and not just for 2012, but for years after this.

Of course, I speak of Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana as we let loose on a Lazy One…

With the wonderful juxtaposition of the struggling Angels being in town as the back-drop, given their spending spree this off-season, Cabrera and Santana were the two players that inked extensions this off-season for the Tribe and, while their deals may have only “bought” out one year of FA for each of those players, Cabrera is now potentially in the fold through 2014 (with $21.05M guaranteed) and Santana under club control potentially through 2017 (with $21M guaranteed), it’s worth noting that the Angels will pay at least one player $20M or more every year until 2021, which is the year that my oldest son, now 5 years old, will be entering High School.

Seriously…

Though I don’t need a refresher course of service time, arbitration, FA, or even TV contracts as I know that the Indians (unlike the Angels) are never going to pay for past production and will pay for perceived future production, to see Cabrera and Santana under the Indians’ control for the next three seasons together (and through 2017 in Santana’s case) can’t help but generate some enthusiasm. And that enthusiasm and optimism is building as 2012 begins since the Indians’statistical leaderboard starts to morph back into some semblance of normalcy, as it is worth noting that the Indians’ C and SS have continued to establish themselves as two players for whom their 2011 success seems to have carried over.

Now, I don’t know if you noticed in that link above, but Cabrera and Santana are the 3^rd and 4^th youngest regulars for the Indians (Brantley and Kipnis are younger) and while that may depress you to see that they have three players over 30 (with another on the way in Damon) that are getting regular time, given that they were supposed to have loaded up the farm system to get similarly-aged and similarly-controlled players, Cabrera and Santana are both 26 years old and are just hitting their years of peak production. Given what they’ve done in the last couple of years (and so far this year) that’s exciting enough to forget that Mike Brantley has a career .315 OBP in 1,018 PA and 29 career SB in 230 games (though he’s admittedly looked better at the plate in the last 2 days than I think he ever has) or that Kotchman, Duncan, and Hannahan are taking significant AB this season. Because complaining about the black holes on the roster is missing the bright, shining stars and complaining about the less significant portions of the team is taking for granted the development and contributions of the more important players on this team…for this year and beyond.

That’s not to say that complaining about a teams’ inability to develop a LF or the persistent black hole at 1B aren’t justifiable endeavors, but what happens while we moan and project about what the team is going to do at 3B (again, guilty in this space) or scan the rosters of other teams to find a LF to target for trade, we miss out on the development and establishment of the players who HAVE fulfilled potential or HAVE surprised us (in the pleasant way) with the player that they’ve become. As we (inexplicably) are reminded seemingly every day how Matt MaTola is doing in AAA or how Trevor Crowe is “lining himself up for a chance” and can’t help but be depressed by this (and the fact that the Indians are playing Shelley Duncan and Casey Kotchman on a regular basis and just signed Johnny Damon should tell you everything you need to know about how likely a LaPorta or Crowe sighting is in Cleveland this year), we somehow take the burgeoning stars in the middle of the Indians’ lineup – the players that have fulfilled their potential – that constitute the “up-the-middle” talent for granted.

Often, I think about how Victor Martinez was a topic of discussion or debate as an Indian only when he was hurt or how he was fondly appreciated mainly on that day that he sat in front of his locker crying as so much time and words were put into finding a solution for 3B or LF or 1B (yes, even back then) in those years that we failed to truly appreciate Victor for the player that he became and for the Indian that he was. Certainly, he was the favorite player for many and he was far from ignored, but too often we took his steadiness and his excellence for granted, only broaching it as a topic when he was injured or when he was…well, gone.

While that “gone” doesn’t really apply for Cabrera and Santana (with their extensions in hand), to see the way that the duo has started 2012 is to realize that their 2011 seasons may not have been aberrations or red herrings. Lest you forget, Santana posted the 3^rd highest wOBA among C in MLB last year and Asdrubal was 5^th among MLB SS in wOBA. This year (with that small sample size siren blaring), Santana ranks 7^th in wOBA among C in MLB and Asdrubal ranks 4^th in MLB among SS, perhaps showing that the duo is ready to pace this offense (or at least lead it) throughout the 2012 season and beyond.

With a hot start in 2012, Asdrubal continues to establish himself as an elite offensive SS, despite questions as to whether 2011 was the aberration and as whispers about his off-season conditioning grew audible. Interestingly, he seems to have filled a leadership void in the clubhouse that has existed since El Capitan headed to Beantown, looking more and more like the heart and soul of this Indians’ team. While his defense remains a point of contention between stats and eyes, to realize that the Indians acquired him for ½ of a season of Eduardo Perez reminds us that things have worked out in some areas for the Indians, even if the team’s main beat writer spend his Sundays answering questions about where Scott Lewis has gone…apparently because nobody asked him about the whereabouts of Anthony Reyes or Jeremy Sowers.

The Venezuelan SS (whose at-bat music is “Super Estrella”, which I believes translates to “Super Astro” or “Super Star”…and thanks to AC for dropping all of the actual walk-in music for the Tribe on us) has emerged as a perennial All-Star – not that the All-Star selection process is the most scientific way to quantify worth – and while Francisco Lindor continues to bepraised in Lake County, it’s again important to remember not what a certain player “could” be (though I’m irrationally excited about Lindor) but to appreciate a player for what he has become…and Cabrera has become a star. Even when Asdrubal arrived in that magical 2007 season, there was hope (that at times seemed unfounded) that he would develop into the player that he is today. But that hope has materialized into reality and, while it proves that stars can emerge from relative obscurity (and the Seattle farm system), that is something that is not appreciated enough.

As for emerging from “relative obscurity”, Santana didn’t follow that path as he was a highly-touted prospect from the time he arrived from LA for Lacey Cake and (while other “top prospects” acquired by the Indians in those dark days of 2008 and 2009 have fallen by the wayside) Santana kept climbing the Minor League ladder and every Annual Prospect ranking. Upon arrival to the parent club, he immediately put his offensive imprint on the team and, despite an…um, harrowing night in Bostonin his rookie year, his performance at the plate is something that I don’t think is truly grasped, in terms of context.

By that I mean that among players with more than 900 PA since the beginning of 2010, Santana’s OPS of 129+ puts him 27th inMLB, just ahead of Ryan Zimmerman and Andre Ethier and if you really want to get some perspective about how impressive Santana’s performance in MLB has been, look at the players ranked for their numbers from 2010 to now, onlyincluding players that are in their 1st to 5th seasons intheir career. That is, among players who are still young and are only just starting their careers (relatively speaking), Santana’s OPS+ ranks behind only Votto, Hamilton, Braun, Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez.

That’s it…

Those are the only players under the age of 30, early in their careers that have performed better than Santana at the plate since 2010, which is when The Axe Man arrived to MLB. Santana is that “big bopper” that some thought (or “hoped”) he would become, the middle-of-the-order presence that gets taken for granted far too often and is noticed more for the “protection” in the lineup that he does not have more than for his excellence at the plate. As for “behind” said plate, Santana’s defense has unquestionably improved this season and, while it remains to be seen where The Axe Man ends up on defense, his game is becoming more complete as he continues his assault on MLB pitching.

Over at LGT, Jay Levin penned a great piece dissecting the (absurd) Fangraphsian suggestion that the Indians did not get much of a discount in Santana’s extension. After a logical foray into the “how does Johnny Damon fit” question, Jay’s piece that asserted that the Indians received what could be potentially quite a discount, comparing the money received by Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder in arbitration to what the Indians will be paying Santana. If those names look ambitious in terms of comparison, Levin opines thusly:

These are not logical comps for Santana, clearly. And yet, one scenario that the Indians do have to consider in their planning is the one where Santana becomes a straight-up superstar. All he has to do is hit 35 bombs — and he doesn’t even have to do it this year. He can do it in 2012, or in 2013, or in 2014. Santana’s age in those three seasons: 26, 27 and 28.

That – in a nutshell – reminds us what Santana already is and what he can (quite easily) become if he follows on his current path. “What he is” and “what he can become” are unquestionably exciting notions and, as there is much hand-wringing over Kotchman’s start or concerns over Ubaldo’s inconsistency (both legitimate gripes), let’s not take Santana’s ascension to the upper echelon of MLB hitters for granted. Sure, the local beat writers are going to continue to harp away at The Axe Man’s batting average because…well, that’s what they do instead of attempting to contextualize his impact, but to watch Santana develop has already been a joy. The feeling that he’s just scratching the surface is impossible to ignore and seeing him in the middle of the Indians’ lineup (potentially) through 2017 should cause some warmth on a cold Sunday morning on the North Coast.

How the Indians’ offense ultimately performs throughout the season remains (seriously) in question as it becomes more and more apparent that this offense is going to have to be paced by Santana and Cabrera with the hope that Choo can get healthy (and effective) and Hafner can STAY healthy (and effective) forming the heart of the order. If Kipnis continues to develop as an offensive presence and Brantley’s weekend foretells of future success (and this is me not holding my breath), the top-to-middle of the Indians’ offense could excite and amaze this year.

While much e-ink will be spilled on the other spots in the lineup and concerns in the rotation and bullpen, it’s important to not lose sight of the way that Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana have emerged as legitimate stars in the last two years or so. Maybe the onus is on the Indians for not surrounding them with more talent at the corners of the diamond and in the corners of the outfield, but complaining about those issues (which are justified) sometimes takes away from the enjoyment of watching a young player mature and develop into an impactful star in MLB.

With both Asdrubal and The Axe Man, that enjoyment is unmistakable and – regardless of what happens around that duo in the lineup or in the field – to appreciate them for what they are and to anticipate what they can be is the reason that most of us became baseball fans. Rather than irrationally focusing on the (continued) deficiencies of the team all season long, placing that focus on seeing what the young players that are on hand have evolved into allows one to envision an enjoyable summer.

Whether the summer is enjoyable or not, the Indians have pillars for their team up the middle of the diamond and – thanks to their newly inked extensions – those pillars can be appreciated now and into the future…

Protecting Pronk

2012-04-25T19:43:00.000-04:00

As the Indians continue to do exactly what they need to do against the soft underbelly of their schedule (and even against these teams, they’re really steamrolling) and since Indians litter the top of thestill-largely-irrelevant leaderboards in MLB, let us bask in the glory that is Hafner, Duncan, Hannahan, and Santana at the top of the OBP list in the AL. To say that seeing two of those names on that list is a surprise is a bit of an understatement, but the inclusion of Hafner and Santana provide fond memories of past success of cause positive projections for future success.

Without delving too deeply into the early success of Duncan (why do visions of Chris Shelton cloud my brain) and Hannahan (which, as much as I’m enjoying this, is still largely a result of luck and BABIP…though I continue to abhor my role as “realist” in this fairy tale story), to see Hafner and Santana on that list provides a glimpse as to why the Indians are scoring more runs per game (X) than anyone else in the league as the middle-of-the-order hitters are thumping their way through the early schedule and providing the drumbeat for the rhythm of the offense.

With Santana, his performance is everything that we have hoped it would be and – oddly enough – it’s not all that surprising, given his success last year, his pedigree, and his potential. Seeing The Axe Man mash is unquestionably exciting (his 162 game average is a 38 2B, 27 HR while he has walked only 28 fewer times than he has struck out in 914 MLB PA) for the future of this team and the idea that Santana will sit in the middle of this lineup for the next six or so seasons.

But what’s been even more enjoyable is to bask in the the performance of Travis Hafner to date. While numbers are still pretty tough to parse through, it’s impossible to NOT get excited about what Hafner’s done so far:

.333 BA / .500 OBP / .533 SLG / 1.033 OPS with 3 2B and 2 HR in 60 PA

While depositing balls into people’s salads and wraps in Kansas City, Hafner has gotten on base in HALF of his plate appearances to date as – going further than just numbers and going into the gut – he “looks” like the Hafner of old as he’s striking the ball with authority, driving the ball in a way that we haven’t seen for some time. However, in this age of instant analysis and the 24-hour news cycle, have we all forgotten that it really hasn’t been that long since we’ve seen this same Hafner?

Just to remind you, this is what Hafner had done in his first 59 plate appearances last year:

.346 BA / .407 OBP / .635 SLG / 1.041 OPS with 3 2B and 4 HR in 15 games

Compare those to the numbers for 2011 shown above (which is as close as I can get in terms of plate appearances) and realize that Hafner burst out of the gate last year as well, yet would finish the season having played in only 94 games in 2011.

If you remember (or even if you don’t), Hafner had a .959 OPS at the end of April and a .958 OPS in mid-May as the Indians raced out to their lead in the AL Central. Then, after racing out to his blazing start and (this is important) after playing in 32 of the Indians’ first 39 games in 2011, he hit the DL with a strained oblique that would sideline him for a month until mid-June. Of course, he came back just in time for NL games (creating a glorified PH role for him) as the Indians’ season started to slide.

But just to go back to the frequency in which Hafner was used last year prior to his injury, he played in 32 of the first 39 games (posting a .958 in those 32games) and would play only 62 of the final 123 games (posting a .732 OPS in those final 62 games) and so far he’s played in 13 of the first 15 games and while I’m not suggesting that anything is about to go SPROING with Hafner as he “looks” healthy, he started out in this manner last year and looked just as healthy as we read stories about how he was finally ready for a year of full health. Again, he played in only 94 games last year as his absence from the team coincided with the team’s slide in the standings and while I won’t say that the team overused Hafner in the early going, causing him to the DL for a month from mid-May to mid-June (and he hit the DL again later in the year), the idea that Hafner has returned to form this year comes with the caveats and precautions that cannot be ignored, as they may have been last year.

What I’m getting at is that protecting Hafner, who is out to a huge start, is vitally important to the offense’s productivity this season, as wonderful as it is to see him hit like this and imagine that he’s FINALLY back. Hafner is what makes this offense go (settling the middle of the lineup and providing protection for Santana) and – though it may be hard to remember, particularly given the alternatives – it is important to remember that a healthy Hafner is more important than an everyday Hafner.

As nice as it is to have that “everyday Hafner”, there should be a concerted effort to rest him periodically to prevent him going on the DL for a solid couple of weeks when the Indians need him in the lineup without a prolonged absence. This is not a new concept (though I’m surprised that Hafner is playing this frequently in the early going) and as much as some want to simply push Santana down to 1B against LHP because (surprise!) Casey Kotchman can’t hit LHP (2 of 28 this season as he’s been inexplicably playing against LHP), I’d still prefer to have Santana slot to DH against LHP (with Marson as the catcher) to protect the health of the Indians’ best two offensive players. With Hafner, it’s about giving his body a rest to maximize his effectiveness and with Santana, it’s about getting him completely off the field (while keeping his VERY IMPORTANT bat in the lineup) to rest up from all of those foul tips that he’s been taking off of batted balls.

In terms of what to do at 1B vs. LHP (because Kotchman shouldn’t face LHP…and this is not a new line of thinking), I still think that Hannahan is an interesting option at 1B vs. LHP or using Lopez in some capacity or Duncan at 1B (once Damon arrives) could be an option. Ultimately (and this should come as no surprise), Casey Kotchman isn’t hitting in 2012 because…well, because he really never hit outside of his BABIP-driven 2011 in Tampa and he hasn’t hit LHP in his recent past (.245 BA / .305 OBP / .305 OBP / .610 OPS in his last 367 AB vs. LHP going into 2012) and since he hasn’t hit LHP this year, it’s just a continuation of a trend, not a new development. All of this means that the Indians are going to have some moving pieces in an effort to put Kotchman in a position to succeed.

Maybe they pull some sort of double platoon here to protect the health of Hafner and Santana while limiting Kotchman’s exposure to LHP, maybe utilizing Jason Donald as more than a super-utility player, playing him at 3B vs. LHP, with the two alignments looking something like this:

Against RHP

C – Santana

1B – Kotchman

3B – Hannahan

DH – Hafner

Against LHP

C – Marson

1B – Hannahan

3B – Donald

DH – Santana

Remember that usually about 75% of a season’s AB come against RHP and only about 25% come from LHP, so the Indians are still getting the lion’s share of PA for Hafner (and Kotchman) in there in spots that play to their strengths. In that arrangement, Santana and Hannahan are the everyday players here (so long as Hannahan’s hot start continues…even if it’s largely explained by BABIP here) with guys like Lopez and Duncan having some flexibility to play 1B if necessary.

Regardless of how those parts move and mesh together, the most important factor in those alignments is resting Hafner more than he’s being rested now and using the open DH spot (when Hafner is off) to give Santana as much of a break as possible, allowing him to only hit and reducing the wear-and-tear on his body. The Indians’ offensive success in 2012 is likely to be paced by (or maybe even reliant upon) the presence of Hafner and Santana in the lineup and losing one or both of those players to injury would thin out the lineup to a point that this offense simply couldn’t take…particularly with this Choo hamstring issue.

As enjoyable as it may be to see the past (Hafner) and the future (Santana) collide in the present, the Indians need to avoid getting overzealous with their usage for each, and particularly with Hafner. With the lessons of 2011 being so close in the rearview mirror, and with the idea that this may be the final season in which Hafner is able to do this (even sporadically) in an Indians’ uniform, protecting Hafner for the length of the season will only lengthen the odds of the Indians’ continuing to compete in the AL Central.

A Lazy Sunday Sorting Through the Bull(pen)

2012-04-22T07:20:00.000-04:00

Last week, it was written that “fattening up” is what the Indians needed to do against what look to be the dregs of the AL (and that Seattle lineup is almost as bad as the Royals’ pitching) and they’re probably loosening their belt a little bit as they finish up their road trip that took them through Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland – three teams that look likely to finish at or near the bottom of their respective divisions, if anything is to be gleaned from seeing each of these teams in the early going. The Indians needed to build some momentum with this portion of their schedule and they’ve done just that as they prepare to welcome the Royals to the friendly confines before the big, bad, bloated (paying Vernon Wells $24M this year) Angels, the team with the big off-season that has resulted in them being…wait for it…7 games back in their division after just a couple of weeks into the season. While the Angels aren’t likely to play .357 baseball throughout the season, the Indians have the opportunity to carry the thrust from this road trip (and perhaps the Royals series) to take advantage of an Angels’ team still looking to find its sea legs.

But that’s getting too far ahead of ourselves and knowing what the 2012 Indians actually are or will be is still far off on the horizon as there have been both positive signs and negative ones since the season started. In fact, the idea that much can be gleaned from small samples is always one that’s bothered me in terms of baseball coverage this early in the season and burying the Angels (or Red Sox) as fun as that may be is always premature. Unless you’re talking about an aspect of a particular team (Kansas City’s pitching, Seattle’s offense, Minnesota’s…well, team) that was thought to be a weak spot and has looked worse than expected, the results of April are often fool’s gold.

Certainly, these games count just as the ones in September do in the midst of a pennant race, but if you’re overly analyzing the performance of a particular player based on what happens before Memorial Day even, then…well, you’re doing it wrong. That is said, of course, with the full knowledge that Josh Tomlin “outdueled” King Felix for a victory a day after I wrote that he may find himself as the odd man out when/if Roberto Hernandez returns. However, against one of the worst lineups that I can remember seeing (hey, Chone Figgins is hitting leadoff and Phil Humber just threw a Perfect Game against them) thrown out there by The Atomic Wedgie in the Emerald City, Tomlin did what Masterson and Lowe could not in going deep into the game and giving the bullpen some much-needed rest.

Interestingly, his 8-inning outing represented only the 2nd time that a starter had gone 8 innings (Masterson did it on Opening Day) and what’s interesting is that, the 8-inning outing from “The Lil’ Cowboy” (as Acta dubbed him after the victory) was the first time that an Indians’ pitcher had gone at least 7 innings since Masterson, Ubaldo, and Lowe each did in the opening series with Toronto. What has happened since that series with Toronto has been some shorter outings for the Tribe starters, either due to Acta’s hook or the umpire’s thumb (in the case of Jeanmar), which has caused the bullpen to throw a good number of innings, which is the topic of today’s Lazy Sunday…

Though we’re still more than a week away from May, the innings are piling up for the Tribe’s bullpen as (going into Saturday night), the Indians’ bullpen is AVERAGING a little less than 4 1/3 IP per game. Certainly, they’ve played in some extra inning games and the game in Kansas City (in which Gomez was ejected), which play a role here, but take a look at where they rank among all MLB teams in terms of IP for bullpens, per game:
Cleveland – 4.19 IP (50 1/3 IP in 12 games)
Kansas City – 3.72 (48 1/3 IP in 13 games)
Pittsburgh – 3.49 IP (45 1/3 IP in 13 games)
San Diego – 3.44 IP (51 2/3 IP in 15 games)
New York (AL) – 3.38 (47 1/3 IP in 14 games)
Washington – 3.38 (47 1/3 IP in 14 games)
Just to provide some context here, the Orioles’ bullpen threw 3.55 innings per game last year to lead MLB…by a pretty wide margin. Just to go further, the Indians were in the middle of the pack, with the bullpen throwing 3.07 innings per game in 2011.

Perhaps this is ignoring my own advice and making too much of what looks like an inordinately high number (compared to the rest of MLB) in just a couple week’s worth of games, but the bullpen is almost AVERAGING 4 1/3 IP per game. Watching Ubaldo’s pitch counts start after start and realizing that Tomlin and Gomez are still largely back-of-the-end rotation fodder who could be chased early in a good many starts, I’m not sure if this isn’t the start of a trend that could have a profound effect on the performance of the overall bullpen in 2012 and, perhaps more importantly, the health of these individual relievers (which looked so solid as a group last year) heading into this “window of contention”, in which the bullpen looks to be a strength.

Admittedly, bullpen performance is certainly something that is difficult to quantify on a player-by-player basis in such a short amount of time and because of the short outings for these, but bullpen usage is much easier to see in terms of the stress and workload being placed on a bullpen. That’s not to say that the “player-by-player” analysis should be ignored (even this early), as many of us will remember Joe Borowski almost single-handedly botched away the start of the 2008 season (he had a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in only 16 2/3 IP that year before the Indians designated him for assignment on July 4th of that year, 4 days before they would trade CC Sabathia), in a year that was…um, kind of important to the Indians.

Certainly I’m not suggesting that there’s any link nearly as weak on this team as Brodzoski (The Close) was in 2008, as Borowski gave up nearly 3 times as many hits (24) as he accumulated strikeouts (9) in a season in which he was the closer to start the season. Realistically, even attempting to parse out a season’s worth of effectiveness is hard to do based on a couple of performances for any reliever. If you’ll remember back to 2010, Rafael Perez (a player with a strong track record as a reliever) posted a 7.20 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, .940 OPS against in 15 IP over his first 19 games, then somehow rebounded to post a 1.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .679 OPS against in 46 IP over his final 51 games. While some (ahem…me) were calling for the Indians to cut ties with Perez, their patience paid off as he was able to settle into a groove.

However, while expectations of performance vary wildly for relievers, what we’re seeing so far for the Indians is a HEAVY usage of the bullpen due to extra inning games and starters not going very deep into games. As much as the 2011 was an unquestioned strength of the team, most were hopeful (if not convinced) that the bullpen could remain that “strength”, only made skeptical mainly because of the volatility of relievers as a whole. The concern here is that the volatility is only going to rise as they throw more innings or as they’re leaned on more heavily if the starters are not able to extend their starts into the 6th or 7th innings. It was a fear that this could happen as I wrote this prior to the season, “the bullpen is going to be leaned on too heavily early on because of uncertainty in the rotation (and particularly in the back-end) which could cause the bullpen to falter down the stretch”. Though we’re still talking about the team being in April and any intimation that the bullpen WILL “falter down the stretch” is just guessing, the amount that they’ve been used is throwing up some red flags.

If you want to say that the bullpen as a whole (or individually) has thrown up some red flags or if you want to go through a pitcher-by-pitcher evaluation of each of the relievers this early in the season, have at it. But I’m not going to sit here, not quite to the end of April, and make any grand pronouncements that THIS reliever has to be in Cleveland or THAT player should be DFA’d as it takes a while for bullpens to evolve and shape out.

However, in looking at the way that the bullpen is absorbing so many innings in the early going, perhaps it is time to look at how this bullpen can remain healthy and effective…and not just for the rest of this season. By that I mean, the Indians have a promising group of young arms in the bullpen (Pestano, Perez, Smith, Sipp, Hagadone) with more in Columbus (CC Lee, most notably) and Akron (Bryce Stowell, most notably) that should provide the backbone for a solid bullpen for years to come. But if we’ve learned anything about predicting bullpen performance in the past, it’s that it can’t be predicted. Though I’m not going to re-post the variances between the 2005 bullpen and the 2006 bullpen or the 2007 bullpen and the 2008 bullpen, we’ve learned in Cleveland that bullpens are fickle beasts, who seemingly cannot (or will not) be tamed.

But what if the 2012 season is the time that the Indians use to overhaul the way that bullpens are thought of and used, throwing out the notion of the “one-inning reliever” or the set-up role and the closer role being used based on inning instead of situation? Can the Indians tame the fickle beast that is the MLB bullpen in 2012 by challenging “conventional wisdom”?

To start this off, there’s been a groundswell afoot for the “save” stat to be abolished and Joe Sheehan had an interesting piece that opines that abolishing the “save” rule (which is not a new idea…but I’ll get to that”) would allow the way that bullpens are constructed and utilized to be overhauled in a more efficient manner, asserting that:
The biggest positive of eliminating the save rule would be a reversal of the trend toward less and less work from more and more relievers. The one-inning closer begat the one-inning setup man, which begat one-batter matchup guys. That's why your team has eight relievers but no one to bat for the .180-hitting shortstop in the ninth. Eliminating the closer myth would free managers to use their best pitchers in the biggest spots and balance rosters and payrolls.

Watching this 2012 Indians’ bullpen get worked over early, one has to wonder what would happen if the Indians were the team that overhauled the way that bullpens were constructed and utilized to work more efficiently, while protecting their young bullpen arms BEFORE the save rule was eliminated?

Maybe you’d say that the public outcry would be too overwhelming for the Indians to attempt an overhaul, but since most of Cleveland is more concerned with which three players the Browns are going to take in the first 37 picks in the draft than they are about a young, exciting baseball team, if the Tribe were to be pro-active in their handling of the bullpen, throwing out the conventional wisdom that has existed since Tony LaRussa put The Eck in the back of the A’s bullpen, they could perhaps change the way that bullpen performance is so volatile…all while flying under-the-radar of a Cleveland Sports Media that churns out more mock drafts than insight.

Would it be an ambitious undertaking?
Of course, but if the Indians’ bullpen is being overtaxed right now and they have young arms in the bullpen that they want to protect in the interest of creating a “stable” environment out of their relief corps, wouldn’t now be the time to do it?

Perhaps even more important than bullpen performance however, the idea that the Indians could be at the cutting edge of usage for these relievers to avoid injury presents a much more compelling reason to do so, with the early burden of 2012 providing the impetus. Since we all know what happens when Danny Graves, Oldberto Hernandez (no, not #55…the other one from a few years ago), and their ilk are asked to handle major innings for a team that is supposed to contend, wouldn’t it behoove the Indians to protect these young arms to keep them effective and HEALTHY for the next couple of years, as they attempt to contend?

As we watch Brian Wilson go for Tommy John again and as we’re about to welcome the Joakim Soria-less Royals to Cleveland, let’s not pretend that these “carefully crafted” bullpens that are everywhere in MLB with their roles have produced this perfect scenario where pitchers are slotted into their “roles” and games are shortened by a couple of innings. Sure, that has happened a couple of times in the past decade (mostly due to Mo Rivera), but Tom Verducci of SI challenges the notion that the “conventional wisdom” for the way that bullpens are handled is wise, given the volatility and the injury risk:
No one wants to admit it, but the modern bullpen is a failure and the modern conventional wisdom of training pitchers is a failure. The modern specialized bullpen does no better job protecting leads than the pitching usage that preceded it. And though closers, like pitchers of all types, work less often, they break down more often. What industry would accept these failure rates -- the way baseball does?
• Sixty-six percent of 2011 Opening Day closers (20 of 30) are no longer closing for the same team 12 months later, with seven of them hurt.
--snip--
Yet baseball keeps doing things the same way. It is addicted to the “theater” of having a specialized closer and the “theory” that an arm has only so many pitches in it -- and that everybody’s arm will be treated exactly the same way. And when the casualties keep piling up, baseball keeps going about it the same way. The sport is so flush with money even wasting half a billion dollars a year doesn’t set off any alarms.
--snip--
Managers are motivated by the save statistic, throwing three-out save chances to their closer like bones to a dog. The game universally has embraced this idea that a closer can’t come in to a tie game on the road -- better to lose the game with a lesser pitcher than run your closer out there without a save in hand. What makes this groupthink so crazy is that the system isn’t working. Closers are breaking down or losing effectiveness faster than you can say Joel Zumaya. (Quick, look around baseball: show me the high velocity, high energy closer with the obligatory, goofy closer-hair starter kit who has a long career. The job has a bit of planned obsolescence to it.)

Think about this in terms of the Indians’ current bullpen and how the Indians (seem to) have built up some depth in their relief corps. While that may seem like an oxymoron, given the volatility of relievers, perhaps the 2012 Indians could be what Verducci later calls the “maverick” team that begins to protect their bullpen assets in a new way while turning this antiquated notion of bullpens (and saves) on its collective head.

Truthfully, this is not the first time that a new bullpen alignment has been suggested, as Grantland’s Jonah Keri had an interesting piece on relievers and saves after Chris Perez’s Opening Day meltdown, even asserting that the Indians are an ideal team to be the guinea pig in a necessary experiment:
In fact, the Indians could be a perfect candidate to blow up the save and start anew. They’re a small-revenue club that’s already opted to pass on megapriced free-agent closers. They’re run by a progressive front office and a manager who’s eager to use statistical analysis to his advantage. Their bullpen already skews young and features multiple middle relievers and setup men with the skills to succeed (depending on the situation, Pestano, Rafael Perez, or Joe Smith could be a great fit, and even Tony Sipp and Dan Wheeler can be deployed against certain batters in certain ballparks for big spots). Whether it’s the Indians or anyone else, the door’s wide open for any other ball club with some balls and some common sense to run with a new idea.

Though Keri mainly dealt with compensation and arbitration, as well as measures of a reliever’s effectiveness, he believes that relievers should be used based on situation, not necessarily what the inning is and the whole piece is worth a read, in terms of proposing a new way to evaluate a bullpen and how to implement relievers in an effective way. It makes a lot of sense if you think about it logically, in that hypothetical situations like Indians having a lead in Detroit with Miggy and Prince scheduled to hit in the 6th inning. Do the Indians go with their “6th inning reliever” or do they go with the pitcher that’s going to give them the best shot of making it through the heart of a dangerous Tiger lineup, regardless of the inning. Obviously, the latter makes more sense…but that’s not what the Indians (or any MLB team does) as those “sacred” roles and who pitches which inning somehow takes precedence.

But even more than what Keri suggests (which should be adopted immediately), when he says that the Indians’ “bullpen already skews young and features multiple middle relievers and setup men with the skills to succeed”, it brings us back to the larger point of whether the Indians can somehow maintain those “skills to succeed” for the long-term – in the face of everything that we “know” about the volatility of bullpens – so the Tribe’s bullpen could actually be a strength not in one-or-two-year spurts, but for a sustained period of time. Up to this point, they’ve attempted to find relievers where they can and – once their effectiveness wanes – they attempt to find more relievers. Unfortunately, the reliever with staying power is the exception, not the rule. Perhaps there’s good reason for that as most relievers are failed starters of pitchers that only feature a two-pitch mix, but a good amount of attrition comes from injury and, perhaps, from overuse.

While the likes of Jensen Lewis and Tom Mastny have fallen by the wayside on the North Coasat, Rafael Perez has endured, ranking 21st in all of MLB among pure relievers in innings pitched from 2007 to now. While it may be surprising to note that Rafael Betancourt ranks 10th on that list, the question becomes why that is and whether the Indians’ deep thinkers or analytical department can devise a strategy to take that 2011 bullpen or the one that is in Cleveland now and maintain the integrity and the effectiveness of the bullpen, particularly in this season, in which they’ve already thrown more than 50 innings in 12 games?

How can it be done?
Admittedly (and though I hate when people present a problem and not a solution), I’m not going to pretend to know the answer to that, Verducci thinks that it will take a “maverick” team to revolutionize bullpens and Keri says that the Indians are a good candidate because of “a progressive front office and a manager who’s eager to use statistical analysis to his advantage”, so maybe this early burden for the Indians’ bullpen becomes that opportunity to take chances. With a talented group of players, all under control for similar amounts of time (and that includes the bullpen), the Indians are trying to take this current group of players (which includes relievers) into the playoffs this year or in the coming years. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez can become FA after the 2013 season and Chris Perez can become a FA after the 2014 season (though he’s going to get expensive in coming years, for the reasons that Keri laid out in his piece), so it isn’t as if many of these guys are going away anytime soon and maintaining their effectiveness and health could become an equalizer for a team that isn’t going to stack up against Detroit’s offense in the AL Central. Due to this, the 2012 season may present the perfect opportunity for the Indians to revolutionize the way that bullpens are thought of, handled, and perhaps develop an advantage that capitalizes on the talent on hand in Cleveland and below.

As endearing as they may be as a group, the bullpen isn’t exactly full of “known” commodities right now as Pestano was a revelation last year, Sipp always seems to be riding the razor’s edge, and Chris Perez has been…um, adventurous at times this season and dominant at other times. Knowing that nothing can sabotage a season like a leaky bullpen, seeing the inning count tick upwards for the bullpen, and seeing a player like Hagadone arrive and thrive, you start to wonder if this is the time for the Indians to be proactive in handling their young bullpen arms – both in terms of role and usage.

Though I’m not going to pretend to know what the different utilization of a bullpen might be, as we’ve all been hard-wired to this 7th-8th-9th inning parade of arms, perhaps using these arms more effectively and more judiciously is in the cards for THIS season. Truthfully, if the Indians are looking for a competitive advantage, utilizing Pestano, Smith, Perez, Sipp, Hagadone, and others effectively while attempting to protect their arms or prolong their efficacy, the early burden could be used as the “reason” or “excuse” to initiate some radical thinking. Though everyone in the world thinks they can manage a bullpen better than an MLB manager (just like everyone in the world grills the best steak in the world), Acta has the personality and the smarts to make this work. While most of the writers that cover the Indians will be off wondering if the Browns should be taking/ shold have taken Ryan Tannehill in the Draft for the next couple of months, Acta could slowly turn bullpen strategy on its head, using the pile of innings the bullpen has thrown to date and the youth in the bullpen as his impetus to do so.

With the way that the starters have…well, started the season, this bullpen could be burned from overuse in a hurry this season unless the Indians are ready to play the role of the innovator and call into question the “conventional wisdom” on how to handle bullpens that has developed over the past 20 years. That “conventional wisdom” may not be “conventional” or particularly “wise”, considering the volatility of bullpen performance and with the rate of injuries to relievers in the past couple of years. Right now, it seems that the Indians have a good number of young, effective relievers just embarking on an MLB career and given the uncertainty around their health and effectiveness going forward, doesn’t it behoove the Indians to do everything in their power to keep those young, talented, and (quite frankly) cheap arms as healthy and effective as possible.

Though the risk is there, the reward is certainly there…
With Acta perhaps playing the role of trailblazer, armed with stats and endearing quotes as he utilizes his relievers based on “situation” rather than “role” and attempting to protect the long-term health of the bullpen, perhaps prolonging the effectiveness of this group of relievers which, in the era of overspecialization and injury for relievers would be a “revolution” that a whole town (and sport) could get behind.

Hard-Hitting Tomahawks

2012-04-18T21:57:00.008-04:00

As the Indians have already started to fatten up on their April schedule with a rousing late-night victory in Seattle reminding us how magical one game on one night can be in the context of a season full of them, let’s take a moment to remind ourselves where we are. After the 480 bridge filled up after the opening homestand, the Tribe swept the Royals (who will not be legitimate AL Central contenders, regardless of what their talented lineup looks like, until they get pitching) and have the potential to build some early momentum as they finish things up in Seattle before heading to Oakland, then returning to face those same Royals at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Beating up on the Royals and Mariners and potentially continuing that hot stretch with a trip to Oakland could allow the Indians to hide their warts for a couple of weeks and gain some goodwill among the fanbase in anticipation of them returning late next week. Sounds like a familiar script…ahem, 30-15. Since it is worth noting that they’re in an “easy” part of their schedule right now, after seeing the Royals this past weekend and watching the Twins positively crater, there isn’t much doubt that Royals and Twins as 2 of the worst 3 teams in MLB right now…and that may not change all season, unless the Royals can find some pitching or the Twins can find some hitting.

Lest you forget, the Indians play the Royals 18 times and the Twins 18 times this season (meaning they play those two teams for 22.2% of their games) and, though the Tigers (and the White Sox) will face their AL Central foes as much as the Tribe, potentially fattening up on those divisional “rivals” is going to have a huge effect on the Indians and on the AL Central as a whole throughout the season. Certainly, the head-to-head record is going to play a part (ahem…Tigers v. Tribe, 2011), but if the Indians can beat the Royals and Twins consistently this season, it could go a long way to sticking around in the AL Central race and even making some noise for the 2nd AL Wild Card now in play.
That said, let’s loose the Tomahawks…
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Though it’s nearly impossible to glean anything on 8 or 10 games from a statistical standpoint, there have certainly been some bright spots for the Indians, particularly (surprise!) offensively as the Indians have feasted on the pitching staffs of the Royals and the Mariners to allay those early fears. Some of the bright spots have been particularly encouraging (Hafner hitting a ball halfway to Topeka, Santana and Kipnis having 3 HR each in their first 8 games, and the continuation of 2nd half success in 2011 for Hannahan and Duncan) and it remains to be seen how many of those bright spots will continue to shine, there’s something that caught my eye in looking at the offensive numbers of the team as a whole.

While I’ll hold off on any assertion that Shelley Duncan is ready for his Costacos Brothers poster (and please click on that link and not just for the Bob Golic poster) or that the Damon deal gave him (more) fire to excel or that The BLC (sub-.700 OPS, leads team in K) is never going to recapture his 2008-2010 form, check out these splits for a team that most make a big deal out of being almost completely LH:
Indians vs. LHP in 177 PA
.223 BA / .341 OBP / .419 SLG / .760 OPS / 117 OPS+

Indians vs. RHP in 225 PA
.268 BA / .348 OBP / .460 SLG / .808 OPS / 126 OPS+
Yes, they’re better against RHP (which is to be expected), but they’ve faced LHP in nearly 45% of their plate appearances to date (they faced LHP in only 33% of their plate appearances last year) which means that opposing managers may be throwing more LHP at them in the early going and surprisingly, they’ve actually fared pretty well.

Will that continue?
Who knows and it’s why you don’t really put too much credence in the results of 400 or so plate appearances when it will represent about 5% of the season total, but what is interesting to look at is to examine which Tribe players are thriving against particular pitchers (small sample size siren blaring in the background), if you look at the OPS leaders on the team versus both LHP and RHP:
OPS Leaders vs. LHP
Duncan – 1.357 OPS
Lopez – 1.143 OPS
Santana – 1.043 OPS
Marson – 1.000 OPS
Hafner - .909 OPS
Though Hafner’s inclusion on this list is a surprise given his recent performance vs. LHP in the past few years (and with the caveat that his .909 OPS is for 11 AB), that’s the list of players that you’d expect to post the best numbers vs. LHP and Acta’s management and utilization of those players (and Hannahan, who hit LHP last year as well, would appear next on this list) thus far has worked out well.

As for the players that have thrived against RHP, the list looks like this:
OPS Leaders vs. RHP
Kipnis – 1.118 OPS
Donald – 1.000 OPS
Hafner - .955 OPS
Santana - .911 OPS
Cabrera - .895 OPS
Again, Donald’s inclusion is based on 6 AB and his presence on this list is surprising, to see Kipnis, Hafner, and Santana top this list should come as no surprise. The team is crushing RHP to date, with only the Cardinals, Rangers, and Rockies outpacing them in OPS vs. RHP.

Again, this is all based on NINE games, but it is certainly worth watching as the assumption that the Indians would struggle against LHP has not held up in the early going as Acta has maximized his lineup, based on match-ups to this point. Whether this holds up remains to be seen as there are plenty of more games to come against pitching staffs that are better than the ones we’ve seen from Kansas City and in the 1st game in Seattle, but the offense has been surprisingly effective, particularly in the last week or so.

That performance has allayed fears (or at least delayed them) about the offense’s ability to score runs in 2012…
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Interestingly, it was thought that the Indians would be sacrificing offense in the name of defense (particularly at the infield corners this year) and of the 7 errors committed by the team this year, 4 of them belong to Jack Hannahan. Jack Hannahan has 4 errors in 8 games after a 2011 season in which he committed 5 errors in 121 games. While I’ll be the last to stress error totals (as they’re based largely on the decision made in the press box), Hannahan’s defense – which has always been his calling card – has been inconsistent this season. Now, I’m certainly not going to suggest that Jack Hannahan’s defense has suddenly fallen off of a cliff (and it is here where I am unable to avoid passing on that Lonnie Chisenhall has a 1.023 OPS in Columbus through 13 games), but it points to the idea that defense remains such a difficult skill to quantify in numbers.

It was a subject that was broached by a recent article in the print edition of SI, with Ben Reiter taking a look at teams eschewing defense this past off-season in search of the almighty HR. Though the “Mark Trumbo at 3B” experiment already seems to be over in Anaheim, Reiter posits that teams are uncomfortable making decisions on things that they can’t count or that there aren’t hard, easy-to-compare numbers for:
Although the new defensive metrics are certainly better barometers than fielding percentage, they remain inexact. Even the proprietary statistics kept by most clubs often rely on judgments made by observers watching video and are therefore subject to human error. Radar technology that will allow clubs to precisely analyze the movements of every fielder on every batted ball is still years away. Until then, it will remain far easier to assess the values of hitters. A three-run home run is definitive. Whether an outfielder failed to reach a fly ball because of his positioning or his range is not.

Just to continue that line of thought and bring it to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, Adam Van Arsdale of LGT has a great interview with Indians’ Baseball Analyst Sky Andrecheck that goes in-depth into the difficulties of quantifying defensive ability. The whole interview (part 1 of 2) is worth a read, so I’m not going to bastardize it by cutting and pasting it, but it is interesting to consider in light of Reiter’s piece about how teams are more willing to reward the “known” quantity of offense over the vagaries of defensive evaluation.

Maybe Hannahan and Kotchman (who has…GASP 2 HR) keep hitting, but their defense is the reason that they find themselves in the everyday lineup. How well they defend (and how that’s even quantified) will likely determine their usefulness to the club much more than their offensive contributions. On the other end of the spectrum, the Indians will have to evaluate how the defense of Shelley Duncan and Johnny Damon balance against their offensive contributions once Damon arrives.

Though the Indians’ offense has been the pleasant surprise of the 2012 season to date, the team was built (at certain positions) to be strong defensively and how the Indians make their decisions at 3B and LF, most notably, going forward may not be something that is going to be easy to predict or quantify, due to the unpredictably and inability to properly quantify (publicly, at least) defensive contributions.
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Prior to the season, my often-astute friend Tyler e-mailed me some of his concerns about Josh Tomlin, fearing ultimately that that Tomlin was a “RH version of Jeremy Sowers” as it’s difficult to find consistent success without an effective fastball in MLB. Those concerns are nothing new as Tomlin’s 2nd half certainly generated those whispers that Tomlin may not be the middle-of-the-rotation that so many seem blindly willing to accept. In fact, the prevailing narrative is that Tomlin had a successful 2011 season and that he established himself in the rotation when…well, that really wasn’t the case and his finish to 2011 and the his start to 2012 throw up more than a few red flags.

By that I mean that as Tomlin is lauded for his “approach”, “tenacity”, and “strike-throwing ability” and he’s an awfully easy guy to root for, but his actual results and performance have been lacking since the beginning of June of last year. Just to clarify this, look at how Tomlin’s 2011 was separated, in terms of performance and results:
First 9 games in 2011
2.41 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, with 39 H, 10 BB, 30 K in 59 2/3 IP

Last 17 games in 2011
5.28 ERA, 1.68 WHIP with 118 H, 11 BB, 59 K in 105 2/3 IP

In looking at that, the fear is that once the league had a “book” on Tomlin (that he’d throw strikes and challenge hitters early, often resulting in weak contact when he got ahead in counts) that he’d be hit and hit hard. Unfortunately, the results from June until his injury bore that out as the big issue is the hits that he gives up (more than one an inning in those last 17 games) and that hasn’t changed in his first two appearances (13 H, 2 HR in 8 2/3 IP) in 2012.

While everyone points to the fact that he doesn’t give up walks as a positive (and it is), the flip side of that is that gives up hits…and a lot of them. In his last 114 1/3 IP, he’s given up 131 hits and his ERA is 5.51 in those last 19 games that he’s pitched between last year and thus far this year. Certainly, he may find himself on the mound in a favorable match-up where he’s able to take advantage of his strengths, but the problem is that he’s getting hit A LOT. That may be fine if you’re a GB pitcher in that double plays are induced or even if you’re a strikeout pitcher in that you can get out of jams via the K. But Tomlin is neither of those…and he’s been getting hit hard since the beginning of June last year, having given up 18 HR in those 114 1/3 IP over his last 19 games
That’s a HR/9 of 1.41 and, just to put that into context, only 3 pitchers in MLB posted higher HR/9 than that last year

Maybe he makes the proper adjustments, but if you’re looking at Tomlin’s body of work in MLB, it more closely resembles that of Sowers – who had initial success that he was never able to duplicate, much less sustain. What followed was Sowers’ struggling to make adjustments and making modifications to the way that he pitched until he wasn’t even effective in AAA. Essentially, when a pitcher’s level of success is based largely on luck and poor contact, it often catches up with them as more video is obtained on them and as scouts are able to dissect patterns.

Certain players have gotten away with this (Paul Byrd is the one that comes to mind with Tomlin) and Tomlin’s tenacity is certainly endearing, but the fact is that he has a 5.51 ERA in his last 19 games and, even for a back-end-of-the-rotation starter, that’s not good enough to stick in an MLB rotation.

Please, don’t take this as a “DEMOTE JOSH TOMLIN NOW” overreaction, but it bears watching as Tomlin’s…um, “issues” that sabotaged the way he closed out his 2011 have already reared their ugly head. Additionally, there may not be a more desirable option in AAA (although Scott Barnes is turning some heads with 103 K in 99 AAA IP), but there is a growing feeling that when (although it’s starting to feel like “if”) Hernandez/Carmona returns, Tomlin may be the odd man out in the Indians rotation.
Or, unless Tomlin is able to stop his results from snowballing on him, it might be earlier than that…
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As the Indians attempt to roll on in their quick West Coast trip, it’s time to petition that the Indians face the Mariners early in the season…at least as long as The Atomic Wedgie is managing the M’s. Because while the baseball season is a “grind” that you have to take “one day at a time”, attempting to “run into one” every once in a while because the you shouldn’t get too worked up about a slow start, it’s nice to be on the other side of that ledger – out to a quick start.

Last year, the Indians rode the momentum of their April and May (famously 30-15 on May 23rd of last year) and doing so again this year may give them the boost and the cushion they need to make some noise in the AL Central and – more importantly – on the North Coast.

A Lazy Sunday on Damon, Desperation, & Drafting

2012-04-15T01:16:00.002-04:00

As the Indians finish up their series in Kansas City, the first stop as they embark on a West Coast trip starting in Seattle on Tuesday, the season is not even two weeks old and the intrigue just keeps building. Despite a razor-thin margin for error, they dropped some games they shouldn’t have lost in their opening homestand and, while that had some rushing for the “Panic” button (including in the Front Office), the next two weeks are going to be awfully telling about where this season is going to take us. Thus far, they’re off to a solid (if, um…adventurous) start to the road trip and after the Indians leave Kansas City, they head to Seattle, then Oakland, then return to the North Coast to face these Royals once again. With those three teams coming up on the schedule, how the Indians fare in what was looked at as an “easy” part of their schedule is going to set the tone for the rest of 2012 – whether they’re able to build some early momentum as they did last year or if the tailspin begins early as it has too many times in the past few years.

Interestingly, though the Indians have signed Johnny Damon (and I’ll get to that) to potentially upgrade their offense – which has been scuffling for longer than just the beginning of 2012 – it’s possible that Damon doesn’t arrive for a couple of weeks and (since we’ve seen how much can change in the first week and a half) it’s going to be interesting to see where the Indians sit when Damon arrives. But arrive he (apparently) will and his arrival is why it’s time to get off on this Lazy Sunday, examining how Damon fits this roster/lineup, the desperation to find something/anything different that resulted in him being inked, and how we got to this point in mid-April in 2012, when a 38-year-old out of work OF was seen as an upgrade to ANYTHING that the Indians had to offer internally. So, with that, let’s get off on a Lazy one…

Strange as it may be to acknowledge, here we are in mid-April (a little over 7 months after making the Ubaldo deal that seemed to signal a new aggressiveness at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario) talking about a Johnny Damon signing that still hasn’t been formally announced, with a wildly player-friendly contract attached to it. It was merely five games into the 2012 season when the team reached out to a 38-year-old player, essentially as a rental for about a month or so, that hadn’t been signed and who is willing to accept a base salary of $1.25M because he represented something potentially better than anything else they had in the system or brought in during the off-season.

Now, don’t take that to mean that Damon isn’t an upgrade to the Tribe roster as it exists right now, but it certainly conveys the idea that the Indians are (still) unsatisfied (and rightfully so) with their LF configuration. They hate the internal options enough (both top-side and in AAA) that we’re talking about Johnny Damon, after wasting a couple of days earlier in the off-season dissecting Bobby Abreu…and I’m glad we have Damon instead of Abreu. While this signing shouldn’t come as a total surprise as we watched talk and Tweets for the latter part of Spring Training that the Tribe was attempting to find an OF anywhere, actually bringing in a player like Damon is telling about what the Indians think of the internal options and how his signing brings the organizational failure to come up with a “Plan B” past Grady this off-season and to draft/develop a suitable corner OF for too long under some pretty hot lights.

In terms of how it affects the current roster, I can’t decide if this signing is an indictment of Brantley and what they think of him, a continuation of the search to find an OF not named Shelley Duncan, or an instance of throwing something up against the wall and hoping it sticks. Regardless, it smacks of desperation and when you throw the alleged contract terms on top of that stink of desperation, as well as possibility that he won’t even be ready to play for a couple of weeks and you start to see the corner that the Indians had painted themselves into by not coming up with a “Plan B” for the inevitable Sizemore injury during the off-season. Interestingly, Damon seems to be that “Plan B” now (though it’s odd that they wouldn’t have just done this 3 weeks ago or so) as really a “rental” player until the day for when/if Sizemore is ready to return and RJ Anderson at Baseball Prospectus has a pretty good summary of the correlation between Damon’s deal and Sizemore’s availability:
Damon receives full no-trade protection and the ability to opt out once Grady Sizemore returns from the disabled list. This is no ordinary one-year deal. Damon holds all the cards; or so it appears. Think of this from the Indians’ perspective: they want Damon in the lineup for the next few weeks, but know that they can’t offer the consistent playing time he wants throughout the rest of the season. One way to get Damon now and avoid the mess later is to trade him, but it is unlikely that Damon holds much value, and he could not be traded until June without his consent. The other way is to give him a greener-grass clause, essentially telling him to pursue a better opportunity if one presents itself.

The Indians have a gaping hole and they’re bringing in Damon as a band-aid, and not the “Casey Kotchman one-year band-aid” that we’ve grown somewhat accustomed to in 1B or LF. No, this is more like a 6 to 8 week band-aid as the Indians are really plugging Damon into the lineup until Sizemore is ready to return, at which point (through what looks like a sort of handshake agreement) he can move on via what Anderson calls that “greener-grass clause”.

As for what the Indians are getting in Damon, though some will remember Damon for what he was and not acknowledge him for what he now is, Johnny Damon is not the on-base machine that he’s been in the past and Anderson writes of Damon in his aforementioned B-Pro piece that, “it is fair to write that Damon is no longer the batter he was once. His walk rate (about 8 percent) marked his lowest since 2004. He doesn’t make contact as often as he did before, though he can still keep an at-bat alive by spoiling pitches… Damon is 38 now, and a dramatic improvement is unlikely.”

Of course, while “a dramatic improvement is unlikely”, to look at this deal in the context of upgrading the roster over Aaron Cunningham (and his ilk) is to understand why the Indians are making this deal and why they’ve been scouring MLB for an option in LF since Sizemore’s (latest) injury. While inking Damon is certainly not a terrible addition as it upgrades the roster, it is worth mentioning that it does so only marginally as the Indians add a defensively-challenged “outfielder” to somehow mix in with another defensively-challenged “outfielder” in Shelley Duncan in what promises to be an interesting “platoon” in LF. If and when Damon does make his way into an Indians’ uniform, it will be interesting to see how the Indians integrate and utilize Damon in the lineup as (let’s all say this together now once and for all) Damon has played in 52 games in the OF since the beginning of the 2010 season.

While I won’t get into Damon’s throwing arm or how he’s best suited as a DH (which is how Tampa used him last year), something made difficult by Hafner’s presence on the roster, he’s a more compelling offensive option than Duncan and probably even Kotchman and certainly upgrades the Tribe’s bench at the very least as Damon can fit on the roster somehow merely by being a better offensive option in a part-time role than what the Indians are doing now in LF. That is to say, adding Damon to take some PA in LF is preferable to Duncan in a full-time role and certainly than Aaron Cunningham in an anytime role. A few months back, John Perrotto at B-Pro analyzed the players that were still available on the FA market and a scout told him this on Damon:
“He can still play, and he can still help someone. I’m really surprised the Rays didn’t bring him back, because he seemed like a good fit there. He’s getting older. He’s 38 and doesn’t have the home run power he used to, but he can still help and be a productive player. It’s just hard for me to believe he’s going to wind up as either a platoon player, a bench guy—or even out of baseball.”

Although Damon doesn’t really seem “like a good fit” here as he seemed to be in Tampa and since it looks like he’s going to be a platoon player, another aspect to this that will certainly be interesting to see will be what happens with the Indians as they wait for Damon to play himself into MLB condition over the next few weeks. That said, he’s probably going to help the team…but to understand how a 38-year-old, out-of-work-in-mid-April OF is able to help this team is to get to the crux of the issue with Damon coming to Cleveland. That is to say that Damon is coming to Cleveland instead of the Indians simply promoting two players who have gotten off to fast starts in Columbus and who (jointly) represent everything that has transpired to get us to that point. Those two players are Matt LaPorta or (gasp) Trevor Crowe, and the fact that either or both are being written about and entertained as options at this point gets to the heart of what makes this Damon signing so…well, disheartening in a big-picture way.

It’s disheartening because this team has no OF depth (still) and while some will champion the cause of LaPorta or (gasp) Crowe, let’s realize that Matt LaPorta is 27 (and is interestingly playing LF in Columbus, something he hasn’t done since 2010) and Trevor Crowe is 28 and if either of those guys represents a possible answer for the parent club…well, then I’d like to rephrase the question. Both are out to “hot” starts in AAA and have prospect pedigree (LaPorta much more than Crowe), but let’s not get too excited about Matt MaTola’s hot start in Columbus this year as we remember this:
LaPorta 2010 (AAA)
1.094 OPS with 5 HR & 4 2B in 81 PA

MaTola 2010 (MLB)
.668 OPS with 12 HR & 15 2B in 425 PA

Granted, that was two years ago, but MaTola posted a .711 OPS last year in MLB over 385 PA, so it’s not as if he’s improving or making the adjustments that he needs to in order to make his AAA success translate to MLB. He’s always crushed AAA pitching as LaPorta has a .967 OPS in 541 PA in AAA and a .701 OPS in MLB in 1,008 PA.

Look at those two numbers again (particularly with the context of PA) and you start to get why the idea that the light has suddenly gone on in a couple of weeks in Columbus to start 2012 really doesn’t apply as LaPorta is just hammering away at AAA pitching the way he always has. If he comes to Cleveland to play LF or 1B or be a RH bat off the bench, he’s likely to do what he’s always done in MLB – and that isn’t a pretty sight. To see the Indians search out and trot out OF/1B after OF/1B this Spring Training, with Shelley Duncan and Aaron Cunningham making the team over Matt LaPorta is a pretty clear indication of MaTola’s standing in the organization – a standing that’s been earned and is well-deserved.

Factor in this Damon signing and puts into pretty clear perspective what the Indians think of LaPorta or Canzler or…gulp, Crowe (whose promotion should never be a part of a serious discussion) as legitimate upgrades to the current roster. So, let’s stop with this obsession that an AAA/AAAA player represents an upgrade simply because it represents a change and maybe a 27-year-old player “figured it out” after a week in Columbus.

In fact, now that Crowe has been mentioned as an aside, I don’t mean to go off on a rant, but…
In light of the recent rash of extensions handed out to 1st Round Picks from the 2005 Draft (particularly to OF McCutchen, Gordon, and Maybin), it’s worth pointing out that 10 of the Top 30 picks in that 2005 Draft were OF or players that would be OF in MLB. They were, in order of where they were picked:
Justin Upton (#1)
Alex Gordon (#2)
Ryan Braun (#8)
Cameron Maybin (#10)
Andrew McCutchen (#11)
Jay Bruce (#12)
Trevor Crowe (#15)
John Mayberry, Jr. (#19)
Jacoby Ellsbury (#23)
Colby Rasmus (#28)

This is not meant to pile on Trevor Crowe any more than I already have in this space for too many years now, but with Gordon, Maybin, and McCutchen all signing long-term extensions this past off-season to stay where they are and with all of those players on that list being everyday players in MLB in 2012 with the exception of Crowe…yeah, that’s a pretty big miss in that Crowe isn’t even on the 40-man roster (think about that) and one that they’re feeling as Johnny Damon makes his way to the North Coast.

If you want to say that they really only missed on Ellsbury since the rest of those impact players were drafted before Crowe, that’s fine but looking longingly at a flawed player like John Mayberry, Jr. or even a player that’s been moved like Colby Rasmus speaks to the depths of the despair in looking at this list. The 2004 Indians finished the season at 80-82, putting them at #15 on the draft list, just behind the Reds (who picked Jay Bruce at #12, who hit 32 HR last year) who finished with a 76-86 record…so three wins by the Indians and three losses by the Reds made the difference in that draft. That’s not to say that the Indians would have taken Bruce as they never even had that chance; however, the Indians picked Crowe over Ellsbury and whey you realize that Ellsbury and Crowe both played in the Pac-10 (Arizona and Oregon State); it’s pretty obvious that the selection of Crowe in that spot (and HS OF John Drennen at #33 that year) played a pretty big role in where we find ourselves today.

As an aside (within an aside), Mike Brantley was a 7th round pick that year, a couple spots ahead of the Mets’ LHP Jon Niese, another player that just received a contract extension. Meanwhile, the Indians took Joe Ness in the 6th round prior to those two being drafted. Of course, you could do this all day long by examining the old draft lists, but when you miss on nearly every one of your picks for more than a couple of years (and the 2005 picks look like Hall of Famers compared to the 2007 picks), you’re going to have to augment your team with NRI’s like Hannahan and Duncan and hope for the best in finding some gas left in Johnny Damon’s tank.

Want to know why we’re here talking about Johnny Damon after wasting some time prior to the season dissecting Bobby Abreu?
Because the Indians missed on all of these OF and when the bio for the man who ran the Indians’ drafts looks like this in a Media Guide from a couple of years ago, you’re in trouble. In case you didn’t click on that link or didn’t want to read that whole bio of John Mirabelli from the Media Guide a couple of years ago because you want to keep your coffee down, the final line reads, “During his tenure as head of scouting, the Indians drafted players such as Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Garko, Trevor Crowe, Tony Sipp, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey, Beau Mills, Jordan Brown, Chris Gimenez, David Huff, & Jensen Lewis to name a few”.

While the “to name a few” implies that there are MLB players not listed, there are players listed that aren’t MLB players and only two of those players are on MLB rosters (a 4th OF in Francisco and a middle reliever in Sipp) and when you have 8 drafts that produce that group of players…well you get to discuss Johnny Damon as an addition and hope that Casey Kotchman can hit when all indications run counter to that.

Lest you forget (and not even revisiting the Beau Mills/Jason Heyward miss), in that ill-fated 2005 Draft, the Indians took Jordan Brown two spots ahead (#124 overall) of Marlins’ 1B Gaby Sanchez (#126) and I don’t mention that because of my crush on Gaby Sanchez so much as I do to point out (even if I know this has been pointed out so many times that we’re all out of fingers) that the Indians have very little to nothing to show for nearly a decade of drafting – a time when it was continually reported that they were dumping money into the farm system. While it is true that they did spend on the farm system in those years, there was a fundamental failure to draft and/or develop talent to become even useful MLB players, much less stars. This is nothing new…I know, but the Damon signing brings this into clearer focus and the fact that anyone’s even thinking about Trevor Crowe as an internal alternative is just depressing, as is clicking through the drafts from 2000 to 2007 (click on this 2007 link and go to each year prior to that) is a pretty depressing way to spend your time.

Maybe someone still emerges and surprises from one of those “lost” drafts the way that Tomlin and Pestano (both 2006 draftees) did last year, but I’m not holding my breath. Of course, it bears mentioning that the Indians likely saw this crevasse and augmented their farm system with the trades that netted them Santana, Masterson, and C. Perez among others and (just to bring this back to LaPorta), it should be noted that the 1st trade that they made in those dark days between June of 2008 and July of 2009 netted them what was SUPPOSED to be a 1B/LF and CF in the CC deal, which (as noted above) hasn’t worked out for LaPorta with confidence waning quickly in Brantley. The Indians (still) need a RH bat that plays either 1B or LF and the Indians put all their eggs in the LaPorta basket that he would be that guy. Remember, he was playing LF sporadically before he injured himself in Fenway in 2010, and the idea that he would occupy LF with Brantley eventually replacing Grady in CF was not a pie-in-the-sky thought as recently as two years ago.

Really, the high hopes for that duo (and particularly LaPorta) play the other major part in where we are today as I unearthed this little nugget from the past in a write-up of the Clifton Phifer deal in 2009 in terms of what was offered to the Indians and what they chose as a return:
The Indians could have gotten outfielder Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor in the deal, but at the expense of Marson or Knapp. The Indians wanted Knapp and feel they have enough corner outfielders. That’s why they agreed to trade Francisco.

Before your blood starts boiling, think of that in the context of when it was written…
In July of 2009, The BLC had nailed down RF and LaPorta and Brantley had been in the organization for less than a year. LaPorta had played about 1/2 of the games in Columbus that year as an OF and has posted a .917 OPS in AAA as a 25-year-old. Brantley was a 22-year-old in the middle of an AAA campaign in which he would walk more than he struck out. So, the optimism for putting together an OF of the Future with Choo, Sizemore, LaPorta, and eventually Brantley wasn’t as far-fetched as it seems in hindsight.

Now, just to go back to the Phillies’ trade, it should be mentioned that both Brown (for the Phillies) and Taylor (for the A’s) are still in AAA and I do (still) love me some Lou Marson, but the line that they “feel they have enough corner outfielders” is telling in terms of how they were still high on Brantley and LaPorta at that point, and how it really wasn’t that outrageous for them to be. Remember those days when it was thought that LaPorta would hold down LF until Brantley emerged and either Brantley would slot into LF around Sizemore with LaPorta at 1B or how LaPorta would stick in LF with Brantley in CF?
Yes, those were some days…

Now we’re talking about a platoon of Shelley Duncan (NRI in 2011) and Johnny Damon (unsigned to start the season in 2012) splitting time in LF and, well…that’s sad.

Maybe Acta can arrange these pieces into an effective lineup…
Maybe Damon is able to provide a spark, when he arrives that is…
Maybe Sizemore comes back and ignites the offense like he did last year…

But those are all “maybes” that will take weeks and even months to find out as the LF “situation” figures to be on display in the interim, a “situation” caused by players thought to be future OF (acquired either via draft) flaming out or hitting the proverbial wall as the Damon signing is a move that’s been coming for about 6 or 7 years…

The Axe Man Stayeth

2012-04-10T11:45:00.003-04:00

A few months back, the “revelation” that the Indians had no player with a guaranteed contract past the 2013 season became the topic du jour. Whether the momentum of the “topic” was carried because of the lull of the off-season or for other reasons, the “revelation” was treated with general disinterest as the Indians are a young team without many players that needed to be working under guaranteed contracts or the “revelation” was sensationalized in the interest of generating page clicks as imaginary dots were connected on imaginary pages. Fast forward to not even being through the first full week of the 2012 season and the Indians have added a year of club control to Asdrubal Cabrera’s contract (now under control through 2014) and have inked Carlos Santana to a 5-year deal with a club option for what would have been his first year of FA in 2017. With news that the deal is for $21M, now is a good time to remember that past is (as always) prologue here as the Indians lock up their young backstop to a deal that will potentially keep him in an Indians’ uniform through 2017.

While the Indians remain a “young team without many players that needed to be working under guaranteed contracts”, the Santana deal is one that shouldn’t come as much surprise, particularly if you go back to the (recent) history of the Indians and extensions meted out, particularly to young catchers. Just to refresh your memory, going into the 2005 season, a just-turned-26-years-old Victor Martinez agreed to a contract in his pre-arbitration years for a little under $375K. In April of that year, the team tore up that $375K contract for 2005 and replaced it with a deal that guaranteed $15.5M to the player that would become El Capitan over 5 years with a club option for $7M in what would have been his first year of Free Agency (2010) based on service time accumulated to that point.

The breakdown of Victor’s deal looked like this, not including the $1M signing bonus he netted as part of the deal:
2005 - $500K
2006 - $800K
2007 - $3M
2008 - $4.25M
2009 - $5.7M
2010 - $7M club option ($250K buyout)
If those numbers look impossibly low, they are…but remember that the MLB pay scale is based on service time and comparable contracts, so the Indians made this deal with Victor to lock in his arbitration salaries and to potentially buy out his first year of FA (2010) with a club option (that looked big at the time, considering how little Martinez had played in MLB) and a paltry buyout of said club option because they were the ones assuming the risk in the deal, in case injury or attrition would have taken Victor off what looked to be a path to MLB stardom between 2005 and 2010.

Almost done with that history lesson, let’s bring this back to The Axe Man and why this is relevant…
Prior to the 2005 season, Victor had played in 202 games (801 PA) with an .807 OPS after a stellar minor-league career. Victor had turned 26 in December of 2004, so he was starting his “age 26” season. Remember, he signed his extension in April of 2005…

Prior to this 2012 season, Santana (who turned 26 this past weekend) had played in 201 games (850 PA) with an .821 OPS after a stellar minor league career and is now signing an extension in April of 2012…

So these guys have more in common than just their team, their jersey number, their heritage, and their position – Santana is basically following the “Victor Plan” in Cleveland. And that’s not such a bad thing as the Indians locked in all of Victor’s arbitration years (and got him at a bargain because of it by assuming the risk associated with inking a player with as little service time as Martinez had) and included a club option for his 1st year of FA. Pending the actual nuts and bolts (dollars) of The Axe Man’s contract, they’ve likely done the same with Santana and while it might be wished that the Indians could keep Santana as long as possible, let’s remember how old Santana is going to be in the years that this contract covers:
2012: 26
2013: 27
2014: 28
2015: 29
2016: 30
Prior to this deal, that was when Santana was able to become a FA and the club option will potentially buy out Santana’s 1st year of FA (at least) in 2017, when he’ll be 31 years old. In this “new” age where players aren’t maintaining production into their late-30s/early-40s, that doesn’t represent a bad thing, particularly given Santana’s position. In fact, it’s interesting to see Victor miss the 2012 season (his “age 33” season) in what is second year of the 4-year deal that the Tigers inked him to last off-season. While other teams are taking future “largesse” and signing players to what seem to be lifetime deals, flying in the face of the idea that past production does not guarantee future results, the Indians are using their experience from the Martinez deal to keep Santana on The Reservation for the same timeframe of each player’s career.

But this is not about the past – this is about the future…
And in terms of that and as for what can be expected from Santana during the life of the contract, 2011 certainly whetted the whistle as he was one of only 4 players to hit 25 HR with 35 2B and 90 BB, joining Miggy Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Prince Fielder on that list. Just so you don’t think that those numbers are just cherry-picked to place Santana in that grouping and that the feat of those three totals aren’t that impressive, consider that only 2 players in MLB hit those marks in 2010 (Joey Bats and Teixeira) and 1 (Nick Swisher) did it in 2009. Grady was the only one to do it in 2008 and – with that name mentioned – don’t take Santana’s 2011 feats as an obvious harbinger of success going forward.

Unfortunately, most Indians’ fans saw how much risk is associated with having their best offensive player as a catcher on what-could-have-been a fateful night in Fenway and everyone remembers how Victor’s injury-filled 2008 season played a role in what looked to be such a promising time for the Indians ending in disappointment and heartbreak. While I don’t know if we’re prepared to wince every time that Santana takes a foul tip off the thumb the way that we once did with Victor, it’s not assured that The Axe Man will stay behind the plate for the life of this deal. At this point, 1B is still a wasteland for the Indians (with no great alternative in sight in the Minors) and Hafner’s contract expires after this year, meaning that Santana could be used in the DH role if needed.

Santana’s 124 OPS+ placed him 44th in MLB among qualified players and the only players that were younger than The Axe Man on that list who appear above him were Alex Avila, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, and Andrew McCutchen. Since we know that age is important here – just as it’s important in terms of how long Santana is signed for – the idea that Santana could/should improve going forward is one that’s hard to ignore. In every season except his injury-filled 2008, Victor Martinez posted an OPS over .850 and had 30 or more 2B in each of the seasons (except 2008) from 2005 to the end of his contract in 2010. It’s hard not to imagine Santana enjoying the same steady productive beginning to his career, based on what’s already been seen.

The Indians have moved again and while all they really did was set the salary numbers that they’ll be paying Santana through his arbitration years while buying out one year of FA (potentially), it throws the idea that the Indians have been “scared off” from giving long-term deals to deserving players because of the contracts for Hafner, Westbrook, Sizemore, and Carmona out the window. While that was the accepted line of thinking just a few months ago (for some, at least), the Indians know this path that they’re taking and are willing to accept the risk associated with guaranteeing money to Santana, given the potential reward that is possible – a reward that could be similar to the one they enjoyed with Victor in his prime.

Back in 2005, Victor was a promising backstop with braids who looked to be a middle-of-the-order presence, though few saw him becoming the heart-and-soul of the Indians of the mid-to-late 2000s. While the goodbye with El Capitan was tough as cried in front of his locker, the “getting to know you” part of his Tribe career is what endeared him and continues to endear him. Now, the page has turned to a new #41 behind the plate as Indians’ fans will “get to know” Santana as a player, potentially through the 2017 season as the Indians’ “core” comes into clearer focus and as that “core” remains at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario a little bit longer than most thought just a few months ago.

Lake County Captains Preview

2012-04-10T08:00:00.000-04:00

The Lake County Captains, the low-A affiliate of the Cleveland Indians, will be the most exciting team in the system to watch this year. Led by former catcher Dave Wallace, who managed the Mahoning Valley Scrappers last year, the Captains will have my number 1, 8, 10, 11, 12 and 14 prospects in the organization on the opening day roster, and the number 2 guy (RHP Dillon Howard) will likely be there before the all-star break. This team is going to have loads of talent and be a LOT of fun for fans in Northeast Ohio to watch in 2012. So let’s take a look at some of the players the Captains will start off the season with, where they’re going to be playing and what we can expect to see out of them as the season progresses. Anytime a player is listed with a number in parentheses, it’s the overall rank of the player in my offseason organizational top prospect ranking.

Catchers

Both of the backstops who will start out 2012 in Lake Countyspent a significant part of the 2011 season there as well. Both Alex Lavisky (#23) and Alex Monsalve (#50) appeared in at least 49 games for the Captains, and both will be back in 2012. Lavisky is the better prospect, as his power and defense combination is tantalizing, but Monsalve had the better season at the plate last year. Look for Lavisky to feature an improved approach at the plate and a shorter swing this year, as both his pitch recognition and long swing led to his struggles with professional pitching last season.

Outfield

The Captains outfield is expected to feature LeVon Washington (#8), Luigi Rodriguez (#10) and Bryson Myles (#38) as the starters. One word to describe this outfield; fast. All three of those guys have above-average to plus speed, with Washington and Rodriguez being two of the fastest players in the system. Myles is an above-average runner, but is also one of the best baserunners in the system, a guy who stole 53 bases in college and then 20 more as a professional last year. So there shouldn’t be a lot of balls falling in the gaps between these three.

Washingtonhad a tough year at the plate last year, struggling both with injuries and the adjustment to professional baseball. He’s one of the most talented players in the system though, and is a real breakout candidate in 2012. Rodriguez is a burner, probably the fastest player in the organization right now, but is still learning to play the outfield. The converted 2B has true top of the order skills, as what he lacks in power he makes up for in hitting ability and speed. Myles is the old man of the group at age 22, but he’s a guy who made the New York-Penn League all-star team last year and is no slouch with the stick himself. Overall, it’s an exciting trio, one that should keep fans entertained throughout the season.

Infield

If you thought the Captains’ outfield was exciting, wait till you hear about the infield. Headlining both the team and the IF is shortstop Francisco Lindor (#1). Lindor is already an elite defender and an above-average hitter. None of his tools have a future grade of lower than average. The switch-hitter could be a force both defensively and offensively for the Indians for years to come. He’ll play the entire 2012 season as an 18-year old, but you’d never know it when watching him in action out on the diamond. Everything he does just looks so natural, so smooth that he plays at a level far above his age. The pitcher-friendly Midwest League is a tough environment for a kid straight out of high school, but the Indians think he can handle the aggressive assignment, and so do I.

Lindor’s doubleplay partner will be athletic infielder Robel Garcia (#12). Garcia is an intriguing young prospect who could be a power and defense guy down the road. He’s 19, was originally a shortstop, and put up a .915 OPS in the Arizona Summer League last offseason. He needs to work on his pitch recognition and approach, but a player at his age with his skill set offers a lot of potential down the road.

Manning the corners for the Captains will be a combination of Jerrud Sabourin at 1B with Leo Castillo and Jordan Smith (#43) at the hot corner. Castillo was one of the stars of spring training, as the 18 year old showed up with some strength on what was a fairly skinny frame, and is a player who is almost assured of being a top-30 guy next season. Smith, who will also play some OF, put up a .300/.403/.391 line for short season Mahoning Valley last year, and can really hit.

Rotation

The front end of the Captains rotation is loaded, with righty Felix Sterling (#11) and lefty Elvis Araujo (#14) acting as the headliners. Both are big, young, strong kids who have really high ceilings, but also have a lot to prove as their professional experience is extremely limited. Sterling got some exposure to the Midwest League last year as an 18-year old, and struggled a little but wasn’t bad. Araujo is 20, and has yet to throw a pitch above short-season ball due to injuries. The big southpaw has already had Tommy John surgery, but is healthy and was throwing his fastball between 91-94 this spring.

Rounding out the rotation will be Kyle Blair (#33), Joe Colon and Will Roberts. Blair began 2011 as a Captain, but struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness and ended up in the complex leagues before working his way back to the Lake County bullpen. He’s still seen as a starter long-term though, and will be given another shot at the rotation which he should make the most out of if he’s healthy this year. Colon was a 12^th round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2009 while Roberts was a 5^thround selection last year. Roberts had a solid season for Mahoning Valleyafter he signed last year, going 1-3 with a 3.27ERA, 29 K and 7 BB in 41 1/3 IP.

Bullpen

The Lake County bullpen will be a crowded one in 2012, as the Captains are electing to go with a 13-man pitching staff. One of the most talented pitchers in the pen will be big righty Cole Cook, a 5^thround pick in 2010. Cook started 19 games for the Captains last year, going 5-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 105 IP. He’ll be the long man out of the pen and a guy who “piggybacks” on other starters when they are scheduled to go less than half the game as is commonplace in the minors. Joining Cook will be LHP Kyle Petter and RHP’s Jordan Cooper, Shawn Armstrong, Mason Radeke, Cody Anderson, Xavier De Los Santos, and Franciso Valera. Anderson is the big arm in the group, but Petter is a guy to watch as well. The lefty only threw 7 2/3 innings for Mahoning Valley last year, but managed to record two saves while striking out 14, walking 5 and allowing just two hits.

Three Things to Watch

Francisco Lindor. He’s the top prospect in the organization, was the team’s 1^st round draft pick last year, and is a kid who really has fun and plays the game the right way. He’s a great role model for any little infielder you might have in the house.

Alex Lavisky. After a rough year at the plate last year, see if you can notice any improvement in pitch recognition. If nothing else, watch him behind the plate because his defense is solid.

Dillon Howard (once he gets there). The #2 prospect in the organization and a potential front of the rotation starter, Howard will be an important player for the system going forward.

A Lazy Sunday Off the Bat

2012-04-08T02:00:00.000-04:00

Opening Day has come and gone and now we settle in for the long (and glorious) haul of an MLB season. As much attention is paid to Opening Day, for whatever reason, I’ve never been all that into it – of course, I’m excited about the return of baseball to the North Coast on an everyday basis until September, but if you’ve been visiting this space for any amount of time, you know that I generally eschew the “pageantry” of Opening Day and opt to sit with my people, the Game #2 crowd. Apparently, I’m not alone in that thinking (and click this and the linked piece about Opening Day in Detroit) as the Game #2 crowd is not full of the St. Patrick’s Day Party People (who see Opening Day as a reason to day-drink on a weekday in April) and don’t cause you to sit behind an Indians’ “fan” who says that a 45-year-old Omar Vizquel is the best player on the field and wonders why the Indians didn’t sign Manny or Thome in the off-season. No, my Game #2 people bundle up in their Tribe gear, pull out their scorecards, slap on the remote radio headphones to listen to Hammy and enjoy baseball...and that’s exactly what I did with my 5-year-old (well, not the radio headphones) on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon.

That’s not to get on a high horse on this and say that I like baseball more than anyone who was at the game on Thursday, and I realize that I’m seemingly in the minority on Opening Day, but enjoying baseball and seeing games that matter (and Game #2 counts just as much as Opening Day…and perhaps more because Ubaldo pitched in it) is what really matters and what this time of the year is all about. Baseball has arrived on the North Coast and the hullabaloo is over about predictions and projections as we get to actually watch some games that count.
That’s a reason to celebrate…

The rhythm of games nearly every day is back and (as the first couple of games have shown) the season promises to be a roller-coaster, full of highs and lows, complete with exhilarating moments and points in time when we all wonder why we subject ourselves to being baseball fans. Complain all you want about one game or one inning (Chris Perez…harrumph, harrumph, harrumph. Hey, I didn’t a harrumph out of that guy!), but baseball’s back and we have a LONG way to go on this journey that is the 2012 season.

As much as Opening Day events and results get inexplicably put under the microscope (well, not inexplicably – it’s when the Cleveland media and “fans” pay the most attention to the Indians until they turn their attention back to the NFL Draft and who the Browns should take in the 3rd round), let’s all take a step back and breathe. Certainly there were things that did or did not happen in the first two games that none of us hope become trends – specifically the offense looking inconsistent and not winning two games that should have been won based on the starting pitching performances by Masterson (huzzah) and Ubaldo (HUZZAH) in the first two games. However, as much as “trends” and “worries” easily consume us this early in the season, let’s remember that nothing really has happened of note as they’ve played all of two games, which breaks down to 1.2% of the season and anyone asserting anything as fact after one or two games…well, they’re not doing it right.

If you want to talk about how Perez’s performance was concerning, particularly in light of the idea that Tribe trainer Lonnie Soloff implied that he wasn’t in shape in Spring Training and how he really didn’t get “his work in” during a shortened Spring Training for him or how the onus of scoring runs is going to fall heavily onto the shoulders of Santana, Choo, Cabrera, and Kipnis in the lineup as it’s presently constructed?
That’s fine…but let’s hold off on the absolute proclamations for a while here. Remember that the 2008 Opener claimed Victor via injury and that the White Sox (whose 2011 was a disaster) beat the Indians in the 1st two games of 2011 by scores of 15-10 and 8-3, right before the Indians won 30 of their next 42 games. That’s not to say that there aren’t red flags that are starting to rise over the corner of Carnegie and Ontario…it’s just that it isn’t worth analyzing any of those “red flags” after two games.

So instead of overanalyzing the first two tilts against the Blue Jays or combing over this “manage by the book” thing that got overblown because it was Opening Day when local writers who pay very little attention to the Indians (or to Cleveland sports at all) get a burr under their saddle, let’s go back to the biggest news of the past week as Asdrubal Cabrera’s extension with the Indians became official on the day before Opening Day, which will keep the current Tribe SS on The Reservation through the 2014 season…or at least under contract through the end of 2014. So, for the rabble-rousers who spent the off-season worrying that no Indian was guaranteed a contract past 2013, relax and realize that…the Indians don’t have anyone under long-term contract past 2014.
So, delay the worrying by a year…

Tongue out of cheek, Cabrera’s deal represents a nice surprise after a Spring Training during which every report seemed to intimate that the Indians and Asdrubal’s camp were miles away from an extension of any kind. Despite the fact that Cabrera’s deal only buys out one FA year, it still does buy out that FA year as the breakdown the Droobs’ salaries for the next couple of years look like this:
2012 - $4.55M (already agreed upon prior to going to arbitration)
2013 - $6.5M
2014 - $10M

Those numbers aren’t outrageous and the $10M payday in 2014 is unquestionably what compelled Cabrera to “lose” that scheduled 1st year of FA. Truthfully, I’ve spilled too much e-ink on the possible parameters and justifications for those parameters to get too much into those salary numbers but for comparison’s sake, this is what I had suggested it would take to get Asdrubal to “give up” a FA year back at the end of September, with a couple of options thrown on there, not listed:
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M

So the Indians netted another year out of Cabrera for a little less than what was thought a few months ago and didn’t include options, which is interesting because the Indians’ contracts of the past have almost always included options. Truthfully, I probably would have preferred an option year on there for 2015 (with a buyout attached for protection), though I’m not going to pretend to know what took place during negotiations or guess why option years weren’t included when every Tribe deal over 3 years has included one since John Hart steered the ship. Perhaps Cabrera wasn’t interested in any option years (and in the presser announcing the deal, he said he’d be interested in another deal when this expires…which I’ll believe when I see because I’ve heard that before) or maybe the Indians are really only interested in Asdrubal’s services until the supposed heir apparent, Francisco Lindor, is ready to emerge. Lest you forget, Kevin Goldstein of B-Pro (who is likely sending Lindor something for Sweetest Day this fall) projected Lindor’s arrival to MLB in 2015, or the season that Cabrera will no longer be an Indian.

As we all know, a lot can happen between Lake County and Cleveland (and I’m not talking about the stretch of I-90 connecting the two stadiums) and assuming that Lindor will seamlessly take over at SS four Opening Days from now is lunacy, but the Indians bought themselves some cost certainty with Asdrubal and bought out one of his FA years in the process. While that may come as a surprise to those who were SURE that no long-term contracts were going to be handed out by the current ownership group because…well, because the Dolans are looking to sell, what the Cabrera extension does is “extend” the current group of players’ time on the field together. Sure, that “extension” may only be for one extra year past where the Indians’ controlled Asdrubal prior to this contract, but while much attention has been paid to this current “window” (admittedly by me), it certainly represents a positive step in the Indians’ taking the financial risk associated with guaranteeing money to a sometimes-less-than-motivated Cabrera in the interest of upside and keeping him in Cleveland.

What is interesting to see in the Asdrubal extension is how it relates to the other contracts meted out this past week, and one in particular. Of course, I’m referring to Joey Votto inking a…um, healthy deal to stay in the Queen City and while some have pointed to his extension as a sign that MLB is healthy, in that not just the large-market teams can keep their homegrown stars) and that the trickle-down of TV money and club value is having an effect on EVERY team, let’s all remember that there was a similar chorus when Mauer signed his deal to stay in the Twin Cities and how those deals (and particularly Votto’s) causes some major worry – particularly for small-to-mid-market teams.

By that I mean that the big news in MLB in the last couple of weeks has been the Dodgers’ impending sale for a little over $2B, which caused some warm and fuzzies this Opening Day as Selig and talking heads everywhere touted labor peace and the state of the game, but there are undercurrents here that don’t bode well for teams like Cincinnati or Cleveland. Grantland’s Jonah Keri examined the Votto deal and the message that it sent across the league, surmising thusly:
Current and prospective owners see an industry that grew revenue through a tough recession and now stands poised to rake in far more money, with media deals rising, the economy improving, and the game in the midst of its longest period of uninterrupted labor peace since the advent of free agency.
--snip--
Moral hazard plays a big role here, too: If owners know they can always sell their teams for huge profits, and general managers know they probably won’t be around to see a 10-year deal (or even a five-year deal) all the way through, why not pay a premium to lock down a top player now?

The final takeaway from Keri is where the trouble starts though as he concludes, “So you can either fight fierce headwinds playing Moneyball with your roster every year … or give in and pay whatever it takes. The Giants, and especially the Reds, have chosen the latter.”

The bit about the Giants refers to Matt Cain’s extension, but this line of thinking is interesting to look at in the context of the last year of Travis Hafner’s deal (that was only for FOUR years as Votto’s is really for 12 years) and as Joe Mauer enters the 2nd year in which he’ll be paid $23M by the Twins, a salary that will continue until 2018 as I’m not so sure that this option to “fight fierce headwinds playing Moneyball with your roster every year” looks so awful compared to the alternative for small-to-mid-size-markets. Though I’m not sure there are those two extremes – either to play “Moneyball with your roster every year…or give in and pay whatever it takes”, it is interesting to examine in the context of Cabrera’s deal as the Indians kept things pretty close to the vest the whole time and gave Asdrubal a deal that will keep him in Cleveland for an extra year, but by no means keeps him here for the remainder of his career.

Of course, I understand the difference between Asdrubal and Joey Votto, but while much of this assumed future revenue in baseball is supposed to be driven by local TV contracts, let me remind you that Cincinnati is actually the smallest TV market in MLB and as much as the Reds would like to believe that their about-to-expire TV deal is about to become more lucrative, just as the Dodgers’ price tag was tied to the impending TV deal for them, let’s go to the Nielson list for 2011 TV markets and see how many households each market contains:
CIN – 896,090
LA – 5,569,780

Yes, Cincinnati has a market size that is 16% that of LA and, even if you figure that there are two teams in LA, that doesn’t change the number of subscribers in LA per month or half it. Remember, the Dodgers were just bought for over $2 Billion, but early indications are that their TV deal could be double that (yes, $4 Billion is the number being thrown around), based on the number of TV’s in the Dodgerland market and the reason for that is all based upon the that number of TV’s and the “per subscriber per month” fee that is tied to each of those TV’s.

For a clearer illustration of that, check out these numbers:
ESPN (including ESPN HD) gets the highest fee at present for its national network, $5.06 per subscriber per month.

Among regional sports networks, the highest fee goes to Comcast Sports/Washington (D.C.), which gets $4.02 per sub. The New England Sports Network, which carries the Boston Red Sox and others, commands $3.56 per sub, according to analysis by SNL Kagan.

It is estimated that a Dodger network would get a similar $3.50 per sub. Time Warner has about 2 million subscribers in the greater Los Angeles market. That would be about $7 million a month in sub fees, or $84 million per year (not counting advertising and sponsorship revenue).

Never mind the monstrosity that ESPN has become with those numbers as it is worth noting that the “2 million subscribers in the greater LA market” refers only to Time Warner customers and does not take into account satellite subscribers or other providers that add up to that 5.5 million number from above. Though I’m not going to pretend to know what the sub fees are for the Reds (or for the Tribe, for that matter), we’re in a Brave New World in MLB. Back when Pujols was signed, that was obvious and SI’s Tom Verducci has the cause and effect broken down:
“The separation is going to grow,” said one GM, referring to the haves and have nots. “There is only so much room for growth in small and middle markets. St. Louis is a great baseball town with great fans, but they can’t generate this kind of [TV] money because the market isn’t big enough. Markets like that have a ceiling. Places like L.A. have incredible room for growth.”

What does that mean for a team like the Indians or another team in a similar situation?
Well, after watching the deals for Hafner, Sizemore, and Carmona/Hernandez weigh down the team (with Hafner’s deal being FOUR years long – signed when he was 30 – and with the deals for Sizemore and Carmona/Hernandez being seen as immensely club-friendly when they were signed), you start to worry. That is, if you really think that the Reds can absorb the 28-year-old Votto experiencing a major downturn like the Angels could with Pujols, they’re not noticing the difference between the TV money that the two markets will afford them. Maybe it could be said that the Reds are taking a “risk” with a potential “reward”, but it’s hard to see how that helps them in the short-term (perhaps hindering their ability to add pieces) or in the long-term (where “sunk cost” becomes a part of the nomenclature) and they probably won’t be alone in the coming years.

Perhaps this is all heady and (slightly) depressing stuff at a time when most of us want to focus on baseball and are looking forward to getting back to the minutiae that following a team on an everyday basis provides. But the landscape of MLB is changing dramatically and quickly before our very eyes and simply sticking one’s head in the sand or burying one’s head in the box score becomes counter-productive when trying to figure out what direction the Indians are going and why.

The Cabrera extension represents an obvious example of the Indians looking to act prudently in this “newest” age of financial imprudence. Some will paint that as apologizing for the way that the Indians are run/have been run in the last decade, but what 2012 seems to represent is the beginning of a new group of players that is supposed to mature and gel together as a team. How long the current group stays together – either due to contract status, attrition, or injury – remains to be seen and the road doesn’t always look to be smooth.

But, as we begin this 2012 season, the thrill and the agony of the ride is what always brings us back…

The Sounds of Summer

2012-04-04T10:00:00.003-04:00

Opening Day is nearly upon us and since I realize that you’ve never come to this space to find a simple breakdown of the roster (and I’m certainly not going to start with this particular with this roster, which could change so quickly) before Opening Day, you may come here for something that’s become a bit of a tradition in these parts to lighten the mood before Game #1 – the annual suggestion of music to accompany each Indians’ player to the plate or to the mound. After an off-season of conjecture, a Spring Training of dissection, and before a season of heavy lifting, this little exercise in frivolity always serves to break up the tension and perhaps provide a little bit of “firing up” to those in need.

If you’d like, you can check out the history of this series in a series of links from suggestions from a few years ago (and even I’m surprised to see that I’ve been doing this since 2006) as well as checking out last year’s suggestions. Also, Castrovince provided last year’s actual songs, in case you’re interested, and his Bruce-centric suggestions for 2012 should be hitting in 3…2…1. . In the interest of brevity (for once in this space), I kept it to the lineup, the rotation, and a couple of members of the bullpen. Unfortunately, the untimely death of 107.3 has hindered my ability to really look “with it” in terms of current music, since it was the only way that a married father of three could even pretend to be up on current music and songs. Since the demise of 107.3, my listening in the car has veered towards podcasts and jazz piano, so since I’m not sure how many different Theolonius Monk songs are going to be appropriate to fire up the masses, I relied on some oldies (but goodies) and some of my favorite current songs to accompany YOUR Cleveland Indians to the plate or the mound.

With all of that said, let’s strike up the band and light this candle…
Carlos Santana – “Everlasting Light”, The Black Keys
Starting off, I’ll eschew (again) the obviousness of a Carlos Santana (guitarist) song for Carlos Santana (catcher) while acknowledging that a player that is known (in these parts) as The Axe Man needs a guitar riff to accompany him to the plate. Who better to provide that than Northeast Ohio’s own The Black Keys? Certainly, this isn’t the last time they’ll appear on this list (and not just because I own this shirt that the Keys’ drummer Patrick Carney has been known to wear), but listen to that opening drum beat and that riff and imagine Santana’s little strut up to the plate (and he does strut) to set the tone for the player that should be the Indians’ best offensive player this year. Throw the idea of the song title, “Everlasting Light” in the context of Santana’s bat perhaps being a beacon in an ocean of shadows in the lineup and The Axe Man has his walking music.

Casey Kotchman – “Betterman”, Pearl Jam
While Johnny Nash’s “I Can See Clearly Now” merited some consideration, given the credit that Kotchman’s improved vision has had in explaining his 2011 numbers at the plate, the choice for Kotchman is the song that accompanies the player like Kotchman that seems to occupy a spot on the Tribe roster every year. For whatever reason, this song usually ends up with 1B (Broussard was given this song in 2006), but once again, short of any real compelling option at 1B, the Indians will go with Kotchman (and his glove) because…well, because they couldn’t (once again) find a “Betterman” to hold down 1B.

Jason Kipnis – “Give it All”, Rise Against
Yes, Adele is the easy pick here given Kipnis’ vocal…um, stylings this Spring, but this outfit from Kipnis’ home town of Chicago provide the soundtrack that mirrors Kipnis’ hustle and effort on the field. Perhaps 2012 is the year that Indians’ fans become accustomed to (and enamored by) Kipnis’ “ability” to go from 1st to 3rd on a single, but a frenetic tune would certainly seem appropriate. It’s been written quite a bit this off-season (here and elsewhere) that the maturation and development of Kipnis this year is going to go a long way towards the Indians’ offensive effectiveness and that it’s not hard to envision his style of play becoming the embodiment of what this team can be and much of that is focused on exactly what Rise Against extols – to “Give it All”.

Asdrubal Cabrera – “Just Got Paid”, Johnny Kemp
Since there is an (unwritten) rule that a song from the old “NBA Superstars” video has to be used in this compilation…because “NBA Superstars” was a “fusion of music and sports like never before”, Droobs gets the song that accompanied the video montage of Kenny “Sky” Walker winning the 1989 Dunk Contest (with a cameo of Ron Harper sporting the ol’ Blue and Orange as a participant) that is apropos in light of the news of Cabrera’s extension. Since the details haven’t been completely revealed yet, I’m waiting to see if there are any options on top of the 2-year contract that runs through 2014. Earlier in the off-season, a possible extension was the subject of a lengthy post and linked to the original idea from September that the Indians could extend Asdrubal and pay Cabrera a guaranteed salary of $24M through 2014, with some club options and guaranteed dollars to refuse those club options. If you add Asdrubal’s 2012 salary (via arbitration) to dollars in the 2-year extension that’s being bandied about, it looks like Cabrera will earn about $21M for the next 3 years ($4.55 in 2012 and the $16.5M extension)…now, how he plays having “just got paid” is another topic altogether.

Jack Hannahan – “Roll Away Your Stone”, Mumford & Sons
If he can come up to Gaelic Storm’s “Kiss Me I’m Irish” last year, we’ll stay on that island with Mumford and Sons’ romp. Though I could pull the old snarky Wilson Phillips “Hold On” (the old “Ryan Garko Memorial Award”) as Hannahan attempts to stay the everyday 3B as long as possible, I’m going positive here and if you’re wondering why this song applies, check these lyrics out after the ol’ STOMP on the kickdrum mid-song, leading to Marcus Mumford shouting out thusly:
Stars hide your fires,
These are my desires
And I will give them up to you this time around
And so, I’ll be found
with my stakes stuck in this ground
Marking the territory of this newly impassioned soul
To me, the “stakes stuck in this ground / Marking the territory” line is great in light of Hannahan’s history in MLB and this representing his chance to lay his claim on the hot corner in Cleveland. While I may not be fully on board with Supermanahan as the everyday 3B, the chorus is pretty apropos for a surprise everyday player at the age of 32, looking to mark his “territory”.

Shelley Duncan – “I’m Still Standing”, Elton John
Though I thought I’d be including “The Comeback Kid” from Brett Deneen for one Grady Sizemore in this slot, Duncan finds himself in the Opening Day starting lineup…and not for a lack of trying to find other options by the Indians. Despite giving MANY others ample opportunity to take Duncan’s spot and even entertaining the idea that Bobby Abreu represented an upgrade (and he may have, if the Angels had picked up the tab), Duncan finds himself as the only player still standing in a LF “scrum” that could only be described as “messy”. While I’m sure that a ditty by Elton John (and the outfits he wears in the video make this worthwhile) is not what Duncan would consider to be apropos for his 1st Opening Day start in MLB (at the age of 32), perhaps his sense of humor allows him to recognize the situation for what it is and no song more accurately depicts Duncan’s current standing in the lineup…tenuous as it still may be.

Mike Brantley – “How Soon is Now”, The Smiths
While it is true that may not be good karma to give the song that I suggested for one Matt MaTola last year for the other principal player received in return for our former aCCe, Brantley is now 25 years old and if he’s ever going to project as anything much more than a “poor man’s Coco Crisp” (in that most people see him as a high-OBP, high SB guy…when he just hasn’t been to this point), this is the season that he’s going to have to assert himself. Oh, and he’s going to have to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season as the “arrival” of the Mike Brantley that many anticipated having already happened would be a welcome surprise in 2012, or else Brantley is going to find himself in a diminished role going forward.

Shin-Soo Choo – “Don’t Forget Me”, Red Hot Chili Peppers
As steady as The BLC was from mid-2008 to the end of 2011, most are discounting him returning to form for the 2012 season – a development that would go a long way to meriting some confidence in the Tribe’s offense this season. While RHCP slowly build up to the middle of this song (and this video is from their show at The Q, the guitar solo in the middle is worthy of some walking music for a player that’s looking for the folks in Cleveland – and around MLB – to remember who he was before his nightmarish 2011 season.

Travis Hafner – “Best of You”, Foo Fighters
In what will almost unquestionably be Travis Hafner’s final season in an Indians’ uniform, this introspective anthem reminds us that we’ve seen Hafner at his best, his worst, and sometimes not at all. As Hafner’s extension ends after this season, it’s hard to remember that Hafner’s extension was for FOUR years and in light of these 10-year deals being meted out to players in their late-20’s/early-30’s (at MUCH higher annual salaries), it is amazing how Hafner’s deal was just for four years. Regardless and through it all, Hafner has soldiered through major injury in attempts to contribute to the best of his ability, with the results evoking both feelings of anger (that this stuff only happens in Cleveland) and sadness. As he takes his curtain call all season, let’s hope that we get the “best” of him more often than not.

Justin Masterson – “Steady, As She Goes”, The Raconteurs
As strange as it is to realize, given the uncertainty surrounding Masterson’s best “role” going into 2011, he emerged from the 2012 as the rock at the top of the rotation, relying on a “steady” diet of two fastballs. While hitters know that one of those two pitches is coming (and please let’s not have the “Masterson threw only TWO non-fastballs in a game” stories this year since he throws two different fastballs), Masterson remained effective at the top of the rotation. For the Indians to succeed in 2012, Justin Credible will have to stay just as “steady” at the top of the rotation, particularly given the “unsettled” state of the spots that follow him.

Ubaldo Jimenez – “Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”, U2
If Ubaldo seemed like a man adrift last season, the events of this past weekend put into clearer focus a player that not only is searching for the pitcher that he once was, but is allowing petty elements of his past to affect him in the present tense. While this whole Ubaldo v. Rox “issue” seems childish at best (“he hit me”…“he called me a name”) in which nobody really looks good, Ubaldo really looks the worst, a point that AC nailed pretty succinctly. Regardless, approaching the 2012 season, Ubaldo finds himself not only looking for who he once was – the pitcher that strode to the mound in that magical 2010 season – but also wondering who he now is. With so much riding on Ubaldo’s right arm for the Tribe’s 2012 campaign, let’s all hope that the finds what he’s looking for in short order.

Derek Lowe – “Turn the Page”, Bob Seger
The veteran hurler gets a song from his fellow native son of Dearborn, Michigan as Seger sings, “Here I am / On the road again / There I am / Up on the stage / There I go / Playing the star again / There I go / Turn the page”. At this point in his career, Lowe has seen most, if not all, of what an MLB player is going to see and experience and if this feels like Lowe’s last chance to be out “one the road again” and “up on the stage”, realize that it probably is. Whether Lowe has the staying power of Seger and his Silver Bullet Band (particularly in a town like Cleveland that can’t “Turn the Page” in terms of music, where 98.5 WNCX still spins Seger on a more-than-regular basis) remains to be seen, but at least the Michael Stanley Band fans will enjoy the dulcet tones of Seger as Lowe warms up while telling everyone around them that MSB was/is just as good as Bob Seger, who (they’ll tell you) was/is Dearborn’s Michael Stanley.

Josh Tomlin – “The Underdog”, Spoon
For years, Josh Tomlin toiled in obscurity in the Minor Leagues, overshadowed by players that threw harder or looked more imposing and had a more obvious path to MLB. For ½ of a season in 2011, Josh Tomlin emerged from those shadows to be a cog in the rotation for a 1st place team and while his 2nd half caused some of the questions that have always existed about him to bubble to the surface, it would seem that Tomlin would almost prefer it that way – with him filling the role of the underdog, overlooked and underappreciated.

Fauxberto Hernandez – “Man in the Mirror”, Michael Jackson
Since Castrovince placed early dibs on Bruce’s “Brilliant Disguise”, I’ll go with another introspective song about identities as #55 probably had more than a few moments in the past few years looking at the “Man in the Mirror” and now that he’s been caught, it certainly is time for him to “make a change”. Whether that “change” involves becoming a better pitcher or harkening back to those halcyon 2007 days remains to be seen…as does when that answer is even going to come on the North Coast.

Vinnie Pestano – “Runnin’ With the Devil”, Van Halen
Everything about this song screams bullpen intro song…
From the build-up of what sounds like car horns to the boom-boom-boom-boom opening bass line that almost sounds like a knocking on a (bullpen) door to drums and guitar kicking in, it’s hard not to imagine the bullpen door bursting open as David Lee Roth issues his primal scream while Vinnie Pestano begins his sprint to the mound. If they could somehow edit out the goofy lyrics and just go with the music and the chorus, this is a song that could become Pestano’s own as he (perhaps) grows into a future closer.

Chris Perez – “Howlin’ For You”, The Black Keys
Since we started with the Black Keys, we’re ending there as well as the pride of Firestone High School belt out this anthem that can accompany the Tribe closer from the bullpen. Without getting too deep into the idea that the hirsute Perez looks a bit like a werewolf, I’m going with this one because if the bass line from “Seven Nation Army” can take over college football stadiums from time to time, imagine a packed Jacobs Field singing along with Dan Auerbach in the “da-da-da-DA-da / da-da-da-DA-da” as Perez warms up. It may not be “Wild Thing” from the movies, but that sing-along chorus and the fact that the second verse is “Throw the ball / To the stick / Swing and miss and a / Catcher’s mitt / Strike two” gets this into the rotation.

So there you have it, bookended by The Black Keys, some music to provide the score for what is (hopefully) a summer to remember on the North Coast. And though I know it’s another tradition to lay out the season predictions in a massive missive and in excruciating detail (here’s last year’s effort), realize that there are just too many variables to even take an educated guess at what is about to happen, with the season at our doorstep.

If pressed to venture a guess, I think that the offense is going to struggle, the bullpen is going to be leaned on too heavily early on because of uncertainty in the rotation (and particularly in the back-end) which could cause the bullpen to falter down the stretch, and that by the time the reinforcements (Chiz, Hagadone, CC Lee, Barnes, maybe Austin Adams, etc.), the Indians are going to be hoping that they’re not about to be lapped by the Tigers in the AL Central.

A season around .500 (and maybe a little above it) looks about right with the Indians making a 2nd half push, prodded on by their young talent starting to settle in, but with the Tribe ending the season attempting to hold off another team whose young talent looks to be settling in (the Royals) for 2nd place in the AL Central. In the end, I think that they’ll hold off the Royals and retain 2nd place in the division, finishing out of the money for the Wild Card berths (both of them), but playing meaningful baseball games (because of those 2 Wild Card berths) through Labor Day.

The curtain is rising on the 2012 season…it’s time to sit back and enjoy the show.

Lazy Sunday Coming Into Focus

2012-04-01T08:00:00.000-04:00

On the last Sunday before the regular season begins, things are starting to come into focus on the North Coast. The rotation, having dodged any further injury bullets, is set. The 4^th OF/bench jobs have been decided. The last bullpen spot has been assigned. Minor league teams are set and ready to break camp. The sun is starting to shine…sort of. All that’s left to do is get the big club back to the shores of Lake Erie and kick off the season.

Most of the “news” related to the club in recent days turned out to be not news at all, as a proposed trade that would have brought Bobby Abreu eastward to man LF for the Indians fell through. Reports differ as to just how close the proposed deal was to actually happening, with some of the national writers going as far as to say that it was near completion but Bastain and some of the local guys saying it wasn’t that close after all. Abreu is under contract for $9 million in 2012, so the Angels would have had to eat a significant chunk of change in order for the Indians to be able to take on that contract. The exact terms of the deal were never released, but it may or may not have involved Trevor Crowe. I’ve long thought the Angels would be an ideal trade partner for the Indians, as they have too many OF and corner INF and are in need of an extra starter, and the Indians need an OF/corner INF and have extra starters. I have a feeling that there was an unnamed pitcher in the deal from the Indians side, but of course have nothing to confirm that. Regardless, whether it was due to the player package or monetary compensation, the deal died on the vine and Abreu remains on the West Coast. BaseballProspectus’ Sam Miller actually used the Abreu situation to make an interestingcase about how the myth of the “veteran presence” in baseball is exactly that,and it’s worth a read when you’re ready to complain about your own job.

There was a great deal of discussion from Indians fans as to whether or not Abreu would even constitute an upgrade in LF. He’s getting a little long in the tooth, and is a below-average defender in the OF. However, he’d have been augmenting/supplanting an already below-average defender in Shelley Duncan, one that doesn’t have near the offensive track record that Abreu has displayed in his 16-year major league career. I’m not going to over-analyze a player that’s not going to be playing for the Indians this year, but suffice to say that while Abreu’s offense is trending downward I still think he’d be an overall upgrade for 2012. The fact that the Angels are looking to dump salary at all, especially after signing a TV deal that pays them $150 million per season, is borderline laughable, and really shows you why a team with the resources of the Indians balks at signing long term deals. The Angels got themselves into salary “trouble” by trading a guy that became one of the best offensive catchers in the league (Mike Napoli) for a salary albatross (Vernon Wells), then were still able to go out and sign the best player of our generation and one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, and are now trying to get rid of Abreu’s contract. It’s borderline crazy when you think about it, and if you’re one of those fans that wonders why the Dolans are “cheap” and don’t make impactful free agent signings…well, you just weren’t paying attention to the 2011-2012 offseason.

If the Indians do end up making a deal with the Angels, here’s an under the radar name to keep in mind; C.J. Cron. Cron is a first baseman who was selected #17 overall by the Angels out of the University of Utah in the 2011 draft, and he’s considered to be a guy who won’t need a lot of time in the minor leagues. He’s limited defensively to 1B and 1B only, but scouts rave about his bat. He played in 34 games in short season ball after signing last year, and put up an even 1.000 OPS. In case you didn’t notice, first base is pretty well blocked in LA for the conceivable future, as is DH between Pujols, Morales and Trumbo. The Indians don’t have much in AA or AAA at first base, and the 22-year old Cron would look awfully good in the organization. This is all pure speculation on my part, but Cron seems expendable for the Angels right now, and the Indians certainly have a need that he could fulfill. Just something to keep an eye on going forward…

On to players who are actually going to be wearing the Indians uniform in 2012, as news has come out that Jenmar Gomez was awarded the 5^th starter spot out of Goodyear. Gomez had a solid spring, going 1-1 with a 1.37 ERA while racking up 14 K and walking 8 in 19 2/3 IP. His main rivals for the spot were David Huff and Kevin Slowey, neither of which were particularly effective this spring. Slowey was 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA with 5 K and 4 BB in 12 IP while Huff went 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA, 8 K and 2 BB in 14 IP. Slowey was also roughed up in a couple of starts in minor league camp, and Huff strained his hamstring so really it wasn’t much of a decision to give Gomez first shot at the role. Gomez did put a scare into the organization when he suffered what they are calling a “mild hip strain,” but with the club not needing a 5^th starter until April 11, all indications are that Gomez will be able to make that start, barring any setbacks of course.

As far as the bullpen goes, veteran Dan Wheeler was told that he made the final 25-man roster, which leaves just one spot up for grabs that should be announced later today. Wheeler celebrated the good news by going out and allowing 5 runs (3 home runs) in one inning of work. Some people just can’t handle success. As far as the last spot goes, it’s coming down to either veteran Jeremy Accardo or Jairo Asencio, who was recently acquired from the Braves in exchange for cash in move that flew under the radar a bit. Asencio is a 27-year old righty who put up impressive AAA numbers last year (26 saves, 1.81 ERA 70 K and 22 BB in 54 2/3 IP) and not-so impressive MLB numbers last year (6.97 ERA, 8 K and 5 BB in 10 1/3 IP). Outside the numbers, I really can’t claim to know anything about Asencio as I’ve never seen him pitch. But he was having a good spring, with 12 K in 11 IP for the Braves at the major league level, and he’s already on the 40-man roster so there’s a chance that he could claim that final bullpen spot. Regardless, the Indians plan to announce the final roster today, so we’ll all find out one way or the other soon enough.

Derek Lowe threw a scare into Indians fans when he left his most recent Cactus League start with back spasms. Penciled into the #4 starter role, losing Lowe would have meant that both Jenmar Gomez and Kevin Slowey would have made the opening day roster, as David Huff injured his hamstring at almost the same time as Lowe was leaving the game with his back issues. Lowe and the club insist that he’s fine and will be able to make his Indians debut on schedule, so the club really dodged a bullet there. Lowe isn’t a front of the rotation, dominant starter, but he’s a valuable veteran innings eater and it would have really hurt to lose him this early in the season. Let’s hope he really is healthy and effective come the cold April games in Cleveland.

Moving from the big club down to the farm (come on, you knew it was coming eventually), Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks got another look at Francisco Lindor this spring, andcame away even more impressed than before. Here’s a snippet of what Parks had to say about Lindor:

There will come a time, perhaps in the next few seasons, when teams will look back on the 2011 draft and say that Francisco Lindor should have gone number one overall. He has that potential. With Lindor, you aren’t looking at a player that at the present is miles away from his future; rather, when you watch Lindor on a field, you see a player that is more advanced than his contemporaries. He lacks crazy speed, but he can get to anything on the diamond and his glove casts a wide net at the position. His arm is quite strong and accurate, capable of making throws from deep in the left-side hole and over the bag at second. His bat is very promising, although his offensive tools lack elite individual grades; his hit tool could be a high-six, and the power could end up as average (5). The offensive combo should allow the 18-year-old to hit for a high average, with an approach that will encourage a high OBP, and enough pop in the bat for 10-15 homers a year at maturity, with a gap-to-gap swing that will produce countless doubles. Combine the offensive skill-set with the plus defense from a premium position and you have one of the better prospects in the game.

Read that again…I’ll wait. Pay special attention to the part where Parks says that Lindor may be looked at as the best talent in the 2011 draft. Then recall that talent pundits across the board referred to the 2011 draft as one of the most loaded in recent memory. Are you excited about Francisco Lindor yet? I’ll be putting out a more in-depth article on what I saw out of Lindor this spring, but it’s safe to say that my general point of view on the kid lines up with what Parks is saying above. He just looks so natural out there, you forget that he will play the entire 2012 season as an 18-year old, and plenty of players drafted out of high school in the upcoming Rule 4 draft will be older than him. Lindor really has a chance to be special, and if you can get out to Lake County and see this kid play, do it. I promise he will be worth the price of admission.

The Indians have of course been releasing a good number of minor leaguers throughout camp. Some of these guys are going to catch on somewhere else, some are going back to school, and some are going to have to rely on their actual college degrees to make money from here on out. Indians minor league pitcher Cole Cook has an excellent and entertaining blog that he started this past offseason, and he put up a post on what it means for the team when they see their friends and formerteammates on the way out the door. It’s a sobering experience, one that guys never really get used to despite it happening every year. Give it a read, and check back in with Cook throughout the year; he’s an entertaining follow on twitter and the blog is a neat window into the life of a professional ballplayer.

On a little bit lighter note, I’m going to put up some pictures that I took in Goodyear this month as a photo-essay of sorts. I can’t stress enough how enjoyable of an experience it is to go down to spring training, and there’s really no way that I can put it effectively into words. So hopefully these pictures will help do the trick. With opening day less than a week away, I hope you’re as excited about baseball season finally getting underway as I am. Enjoy!

Kenny! Probably wondering why I'm taking a picture of him from 2 feet away

Pitchers getting their work in

Something you will only see in spring training; Travis Hafner, bunting.

Pure Rage Family

Shapiro, getting a look at the kids

Camelback Ranch. I thought Goodyear was nice until I went to see a game at Camelback. What an amazing facility.

A familiar site for Tribe fans

Kip, trying to get those batting gloves just right

Duncan had a 70-grade beard going this spring

#WASHTIME

Bryce Stowell, reaching for the stars

Peoria stadium. Not as nice as Goodyear.

The Cleveland media descending on Acta after Rage's 1st minor league outing. What a miserable group of human beings.

For those who didn't know, Goodyear airport is a graveyard for big jumbo jets.

The past and the future collide. Fryman helping out Francisco Lindor.

Fryman and Adam Everett

Camelback Ranch

Scotty Barnes and his deceptive motion

Antonetti and some other guy who got picked on in high school

Big, Bad Jesus Aguilar doubling off the left field fence

Tomahawks with Roster Coming Into Focus

2012-03-29T04:14:00.002-04:00

Opening Day is a week away and Tribe talk is kicking into high gear as the Indians’ roster begins to take shape…for better or worse. If you’d like, you can have at discussing the Dolan interview that felt like most Dolan interviews that we’ve read in the past, with the only “revelation” being that “during the labor negotiations between the owners and players, the Indians were brought in to discuss how to run a franchise and fairly use the money from revenue sharing”, meaning that the Tribe was used as an example for how revenue sharing dollars should be spent by BOTH the owners and the players’ union. Personally, the piece provided the glimpse that we’ve seen before, with a couple of new topics broached and offering the naysayers that don’t like the Dolans to say “nay” and “harrumph” a couple of times.

Since that’s about as far as I’m going to go on that and didn’t spend too much time wondering how Vlad Guerrero fits on this team (he doesn’t because he can’t play the field and the Indians already have a limited DH and a plan to play Santana vs. LHP to protect said “limited DH”) before the team reveals that Guerrero REQUESTED the work-out in the Dominican Republic, let’s hit on some relevant and compelling topics having to do with roster make-up and the AL Central as a whole.

Because while the Guerrero “work-out” didn’t do much more than generate some chatter, it does bring up some interesting thoughts and those thoughts come to you shaped as Tomahawks…
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Rather than actual interest in the player or a sign of an imminent addition of Vlad, the Guerrero “work-out” is a further indication that the Indians are looking ANYWHERE for an OF, or even a player that used to resemble a viable OF…and that’s not a bad thing. If you remember (or even if you don’t), before I went on my Lonnie/Jack rant this past weekend, I wrote that “given what they’re saying and what they’re not saying, it’s not hard to envision the Tribe’s Opening Day LF not being on this roster right now”, which (despite the TRIPLE negative) goes along with everything that’s been written in this space since Grady went down, despite the efforts of others to pencil Shelley Duncan into the LF spot in that they still know what they have as LF options and them not being all that impressed by them…still.

Well…it was not long after that was written/posted that Danny Knobler of CBS Sports dropped this on the Twitterverse on Sunday afternoon:

Indians have been telling teams that in addition to an outfielder, they’d like to add some starting pitching depth.
— DKnobler (@DKnobler) March 25, 2012

While I know that this is probably the 8th time that Knobler has intimated that the Indians are looking for an OF, FOX’s Jon-Paul Morosi fleshed it out a bit the next day:

#Indians still checking around for a LF or CF. (Brantley would play the other spot.) Have a LH-heavy lineup and would prefer a RH hitter.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 26, 2012

None of this is really “news” as we’ve known (or at least have hoped) that the Indians have been looking for a LF since Sizemore went down. The fact that they’d prefer a RH one, given the rest of the lineup, may qualify as something less than “news” and, though I feel like I’ve been writing about this need for too long, this is the time of the year when players start to become available as teams recognize their needs and attempt to deal from a position of “strength” to fill those needs. Actually, one of my “targets” from last November, Marlon Byrd, is now reportedly the subject of trade rumors due to the Cubs’ OF depth. Of course, the Indians would likely be looking for some salary relief if they were to acquire a player like Byrd (scheduled to make $6.5M), but it would certainly seem that a player like Byrd would represent a more compelling option than the 4th OF options (at the very least) and is probably more attractive than Duncan as an everyday player.

Maybe the Indians can get something done with their middle infield depth (and Travis Snider, who was mentioned a couple of weeks ago here, just “lost” the OF competition in Toronto…though I’m not sure that Snider is an appreciable upgrade) to find a player that prevents us from “Shelley Duncan, everyday LF”, but I still get the feeling that the Indians are going to add something before this team breaks camp to augment an OF very much in need of augmentation.

Again…this “OF Watch” is nothing new, although something may finally be coming of it. However, the interesting of the original Knobler tweet is the inclusion of looking for a starting pitcher for “depth”. By now, we’ve all seen that the guaranteed money for Carmona/Hernandez has been reduced to a $2.5M base salary in 2012 with incentives and THAT number is going to be prorated by how much he actually plays once he comes off of the restricted list once he’s cleared to play. But if the Indians are now searching around for starting pitching, couldn’t that mean that they aren’t expecting #55 to be coming back any time soon?

We’re a little more than a week away from Opening Day and, despite #55’s agent feeding Hoynes the idea that Fausto/Roberto would be back for the start of the season, all has been quiet on the Dominican front in terms of Carmona/Hernandez moving any closer to Cleveland. And now they’re looking for starting pitching depth since the “depth” arm that they moved quickly to add – Kevin Slowey – when the #55 news broke underwhelmed in Spring Training. Who knows which of these pitchers is going to be the 5th or 6th starter to start the season, but Knobler’s reveal that the Indians are looking for some depth for their starting rotation provides a glimpse into how much (or how little) confidence they have in the arms lined up in the back of the rotation in Cleveland and at the top of the rotation in Columbus.

By that I mean, that the quick acquisition of Slowey always felt to me to be more of an indictment of Gomez/Huff/etc. than it was a proclamation that Slowey was “the answer” to the problem that #55’s identity “issues” presented. Now, if Slowey doesn’t look to be much more than the 5th starter/swing man fodder that Gomez and Huff (and others) seem to be, it would certainly make sense for the Indians to look for depth, particularly because there should be concerns about Tomlin’s ability to stick as the 4th starter and because – as quickly as everyone wants to anoint Jeanmar as a suitable 5th starter – Gomez’s ceiling is pretty low. That’s not to say that Gomez or Slowey or even Tomlin are being overlooked because the Indians are looking to “add some starting pitching depth”, but if the Indians are out looking for starting pitchers, it means that they have concerns about the ones currently lined up, probably from #4 (Tomlin) to #7 or so (McCallister or Kluber), and some of those concerns are probably valid.

Whether anything comes to pass either in the OF or with starting pitching depth, actions speak louder than words and, as much as the Indians (or writers) may be praising Duncan or Gomez or the Indians for “taking a chance” on either or both, there’s a reason that “taking a chance” is included in the idea that either (or both) is ready for regular action and finding an alternative – even now – shouldn’t be dismissed.
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This LF spot is an interesting one to watch unfold because the majority of the fanbase seem to be inexplicably fine with Duncan in LF. Maybe some of that is prompted by the writers’ continued over-justification of Duncan as an everyday LF because of…well, whatever over-justification they’re using to assert that a 32-year-old poor defensive OF that was an NRI last Spring Training and spent a good amount of time in AAA last year is the “best option” out in Goodyear as an everyday LF, but it raises an interesting point as to how these “predictions” of what a 25-man roster coming true for people seem to be taking precedence over what is more prudent in terms of roster construction.

Obviously, you know that this is a response to the announcement that Lonnie Chisenhall will be heading to AAA despite the fact that it seems that there was an easy way to keep both Chiz AND Hannahan on the roster, maximizing Hannahan’s defensive prowess while allowing Lonnie to make adjustments to MLB pitching in MLB on an everyday basis, but it bears mentioning that most rationalizations from writers/analysts that I’ve seen for Lonnie being sent down essentially sound like the “reasons” that the club has been putting forth for a couple of weeks now.

Lonnie needs to work on his approach…
We know what we have in Hannahan’s glove…
Chisenhall is still viewed as a long-term answer and is only 23…

All of those arguments make sense to me to some degree and in a way this argument over the Opening Day 3B feels like “rosterbation” at its very worst. But what I find troubling about these “reasons” that keep getting trotted out there to send Lonnie down is that they’re basically the Indians’ reasons or that they seem like a justification to those that like to “predict” the 25-man roster just try to be right on their 25-man “predictions” instead of actually taking an analytical eye to the situation.

The question all Spring seems to be “What ARE the Indians going to do at 3B?” instead of the real question, which is “What SHOULD the Indians do at 3B?”

Just because the predicted outcome is what comes to pass doesn’t make it the “right” thing to do. Some critical thinking is needed here and the issue seems to be inexplicably clouded by this “feel-good” story that’s emerged about Hannahan all Spring – overcoming odds last year to become the Opening Day 3B for the Indians. To that end, “feel-good” stories are great and Hannahan seems to be a great guy, an easy player to root for, a recovering alcoholic and a family man who overcame a tough personal time in his life last year to merit a $1.13M paycheck for 2012 this off-season via arbitration.

Don’t get me wrong…it’s a fantastic story and there may not be a more likable player on the Indians right now, but let’s not confuse the narrative that’s making the rounds with the idea that Hannahan is suddenly a new baseball player at the age of 32 or that his presence should make it acceptable to send down a player that’s been among the Indians’ top prospects for a few years now, who spent ½ of the 2011 season in AAA and ½ of the 2011 season in MLB with the idea that he’s slowly climbing the ladder to be the Tribe 3B.

By that I mean that the new narrative (other than the “heavier bat” explanation) is that Hannahan was distracted in the 1st half of the year because of his pregnant wife. As a father of three who knows what it is like to have a pregnant wife, I can appreciate this and I’m not even going to attempt to put myself in his shoes with a premature baby, but the main problem with this idea that Hannahan started to thrive at the plate after his son was born is really just timing. That is, Hannahan didn’t hit in MLB for 6 years, sitting on a .600 OPS in 1,200+ MLB PA in June. That’s not debatable…then (in the minds of some, or so the narrative goes), with a “heavier bat” and a clear mind, he hit (IN PART-TIME DUTY) for the final three months of the season, apparently to the point that most everyone is ready and willing to give him two months (at least) of everyday AB at 3B to start the season.

The story is great, other than the fact that it glosses over the fact that Hannahan hit well while starting 27 of the final 83 games and that, while as the everyday 3B to start the season, he revealed himself to be the player that he’s always been. With that in mind, let’s remember why Chisenhall was called up to the Bigs last year – because the offense was struggling and the Indians were looking for a spark. In fact, they called up Chisenhall BEFORE Kipnis, perhaps because he represented a more obvious offensive upgrade at 3B.

Why are we to think that anything different is going to happen this year and why is waiting until Memorial Day (and the Indians play their 48th game of the season on Memorial Day) for what most of us expect to happen (Hannahan’s struggling at the plate) to justify waiting to make that move, with nearly 1/3 of the season played?

If you’ll remember, when Donald went down with an injury last Spring, there were calls for Chisenhall to start the season in MLB, to begin his adjustment to his eventual spot as the Tribe’s 3B. The rationale was that he had not played any games in AAA to that point and (while the club wouldn’t say this) keeping him off the 40-man roster until the end of June delayed his service time clock to the point that Chiz would remain an Indian through the 2017 season. Now that service time issues aren’t in play (he would have to stay in AAA until August or so to “earn” another year before he hits FA) and with almost 300 AAA PA under his belt, that rationale (that made perfect sense at the time) no longer applies.

Maybe the idea is that Lonnie needs to get himself “right” in AAA holds water, but (as Lonnie himself stated in a Fangraphs interview) he’s at a point in his development where he needs to adjust to MLB pitching in MLB. He has over 900 PA above AA and will now get to add to that total because the Indians feel that he needs to work on his approach (which is valid, though I’d rather see him do that in Cleveland, where he’s going to have to adjust eventually) and because the Indians are content with Hannahan as a 3B.

While that idea certainly has value in a vacuum, it goes back to something that I wrote last week that was expounded upon by Anthony Castrovince, as Castro writes that “the Indians, at this moment, project to have three guys in their everyday lineup who were non-roster invitees in their camps just one year ago — Hannahan at third, Shelley Duncan in left and Casey Kotchman at first. Hey, at least corner spots aren’t considered pivotal power-producing positions or anything…” with Castro’s piece (which is worth a whole read) drawing some frightening comparsions between Lonnie and MaTola (who was sent down on the same day as Chiz) being blocked by “one-tool” players at points that they should have been handed everyday MLB PA without hesitation and with Castro summarizing that “the Indians better hope Chisenhall tears it up in Triple-A, because a lineup with Jack Hannahan, Shelley Duncan and Casey Kotchman in three of the four corner positions is in dire need of some offensive upside.” That’s where I eventually come down on this – that ON THIS TEAM on Opening Day as it’s currently constructed, Chiz’s offensive upside (he was the 25th rated prospect going into last year, per BA, with his “bat” being his best tool) outweighs the stability of Hannahan’s glove, groundballers considered.

For now, with the decisions that have been made, we hope that Chiz (as Castro says) “tears it up in AAA” and that while we wait for him to provide an offensive spark around Memorial Day (and the 2006 Tribe team was 10 ½ games back on Memorial Day, a year after nearly making the playoffs), that the Indians don’t find themselves too far back in the standings because of a spark-less offense up to that point.
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As for what figures to be happening in the AL Central, while everyone is giving the division to the Tigers before a game is played and as the “team on the upswing”, the Royals have suffered more injuries this Spring than one can even keep track of, there are some interesting pieces being written about the Central and about the presumptive favorites in the Motor City. To start off, it is not all that surprising that 26 of the 27 writers at B-Pro picked the Tigers to win the Central (the Royals got the other 1st place vote), with the Indians “predicted” to come in 2nd place by the aggregate votes, but the idea that the Tigers are simply going to slash-and-burn their way to a divisional title is being questioned…at least in the mind of one baseball writer.

That mind belongs to Grantland’s Jonah Keri, who wrote an interesting piece on where he thinks teams will finish the year, in terms of victories, compared to the current over-under number that Vegas is posting. Right now, the over-under win total for the Tigers is 93.5 wins, with Keri taking the “under” on that. Of course, that doesn’t mean that he thinks that the Tigers will fall short of 93.5 wins and still not run away with the Central, but the issues that Keri brings up are interesting to see:
Here’s why you should worry about the Tigers this season: Their infield defense could be absolutely atrocious… Peralta’s track record suggests a likely pullback from last year’s performance, and Ryan Raburn is more of a hitter who can fake it at a few positions than a true everyday second baseman.
--snip--
Make all the arguments you want about bad hops, unlucky breaks, and small sample sizes. Now please provide a list of other third basemen who’ve fielded grounders with their face. The Fielder-Raburn-Peralta-Cabrera alignment could end up ranking among the worst infields baseball has seen in decades. That’s bad news for a Tigers pitching staff that had just about everything go right for them last year. Justin Verlander is a great pitcher — who’s also an extreme long shot to ever match 2011’s numbers. Doug Fister showed real improvement in his command (57/5 K:BB rate with the Tigers) — and also benefited from a cupcake schedule in the final two months of the season. Jose Valverde walked too many batters, as he’s done for most of his career — and somehow managed 49 saves in 49 attempts.
--snip--
As long as the Tigers keep playing the Four Butchers of the D-pocalypse, Detroit’s pitchers could suffer greatly; groundball specialist Rick Porcello in particular could be a replacement-level pitcher. But the Tigers could also be at risk for a kind of multiplier effect: bases loaded, two outs, fifth inning, Tigers starter trying to escape the jam. Groundball left side … through the hole and into left field. Two runs score, and Jim Leyland’s forced to go to his bullpen early. It’s not hard to imagine that scenario playing out multiple times this season, forcing middle relievers to win games and placing extra strain on a bullpen that could hurt their effectiveness, even up their workload enough to raise injury risk.

Keri goes on to write that the “Tigers are going to hit the snot out of the ball” and, given the middle of that lineup, that’s not hard to see. And yes, I get the juxtaposition of calling the Tigers’ infield defense into question while railing against Hannahan as the everyday 3B.

But those concerns are very real and actually make the idea that the Indians should be putting their best foot forward from Opening Day all the more relevant.
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Finally, if you haven’t caught Adam Van Arsdale’s interview series with B-Pro’s Kevin Goldstein, the pieces are here, here, and here with Goldstein providing insight that is invaluable. Take the time to read the piece…even if Goldstein is behind the idea that Chisenhall needed to head to AAA to start the season.

View From Goodyear: Part Three

2012-03-28T11:00:00.000-04:00

Can you feel the RAGE?

Monday was my last day in Goodyear, as my flight back East departed Phoenix Airport at 4:50pm local time. The Indians obliged me with 6-inning intersquad games between Columbus-Akron and Carolina-Lake County on the MLB practice fields, so I managed to watch both games in their entirety before heading to drop off the rental car and hop on a plane. Not only that, but Pure Rage Perez was pitching for Columbus again, so I got to see him in action up close and personal for a 2^nd time this spring. On to the notebook…

As I mentioned, Perez was bringing his Rage to the minors again, and he looked good. He worked one inning, allowing one hit and striking out one. He got Cord Phelps to fly out to center, then allowed a single up the middle to Reyes. He came back to strike out Dwight Childs and then got Juan Diaz to fly out to shallow LF to retire the side. Perez was putting all of his effort into his pitches, grunting like a tennis pro with each pitch. He was sharp, throwing only 11 pitches and it appears that his body is now ready to handle the intensity of pitching. He’ll make his Cactus League debut later this week and likely be on track for opening day after all.

Elvis Araujo

Big lefty Elvis Araujo started for Lake County, and twirled four scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. He was sitting consistently between 91-93 with his fastball, and really showed off a greatly improved slider that was giving lefthanded batters fits. Araujo won’t turn 21 until mid-July, and if he can stay healthy he’s a big time breakout candidate in the system.

Starting opposite Araujo for Carolina was righty Kyle Blair, who’s coming off of an injury-plagued season to forget. Blair looked like last year never even happened, matching Araujo pitch for pitch with four scoreless innings of his own. He also gave up just a pair of hits, but he erased Luigi Rodriguez by picking him off of first base after Rodriguez had singled. Blair was mostly between 89-91 with his fastball, and did a really nice job attacking hitters and making them hit his pitch. If he’s over the nagging injuries that slowed him down last year, he could really be a bounceback guy in 2012. He’s still a very polished pitcher who could move quickly through the system.

LeVon Washington made an amazing diving play in CF for Carolina. He’s really getting it done on offense as well as defense this spring. He’s hitting the ball well, throwing the ball well, and playing solid defense in center. He put in a lot more work this offseason than last year, and it’s really showing as he’s healthy and producing this spring. I expect him to have a much, much better season in 2012 than last year.

Lefty T.J. McFarland got the start for Akron, and gave up a couple of runs in four innings of work. McFarland was throwing the ball well, sitting between 90-94 with his fastball velocity. He was victimized by some bad luck on some softly hit balls that fell in for hits, but pitched well overall. He looks both taller and leaner this season, and has a chance to pitch in AAA Columbus as a 22-year old this season.

Tony Wolters has had a really good camp, making a lot of excellent defensive plays in the field. He was really showing off his range at SS, both up the middle and in the hole to his right. He made a really nice backhanded play and jump-throw to nab a runner at 1B. He was also playing some 2B, and the versatility will go a long ways toward moving him through the system. The Indians have a lot of young, athletic shortstops in the low minors and Wolters might be better suited to move to 2B and play alongside them. He played with Francisco Lindor for Team USA before both were drafted, so there’s already some nice chemistry there.

Chun Chen

Chun Chen has been hitting the ball hard all spring, and showing a really nice approach at the plate. One thing that the Indians minor league coaching staff consistently stresses is having a plan every time you go up to the plate, and Chen certainly does that. He’s rarely swinging at pitches outside of the zone, and doing a nice job hitting his pitch early in the count and happy to take a walk if he doesn’t get something to hit. Catching coordinator Dave Wallace thinks that Chen has made progress towards becoming a more complete defensive catcher, and believes strongly that he’ll be able to play the position defensively in the major leagues someday. With his bat, all he only needs to be an average defender to be an above-average catcher overall.

Both Juan Romero and Robel Garcia showed what makes them promising prospects as well as what makes them far from sure things to make the major leagues. Both showed outstanding bat speed and strength, hitting balls way out of the park in batting practice. They have above average raw power already, and project to add even more strength and size as they mature. But both really struggled to recognize offspeed pitches, and struck out several times each on sliders in the dirt that they couldn’t have hit with a shovel. They have a ton of potential, but their development is not going to be without some growing pains.

Jose Flores, a reliever who struck out 49 hitters in 55 1/3 innings for Kinston last year, pitched a scoreless inning. His fastball was sitting between 91-94, and his slider looked sharp. He’s an under-the-radar guy out of Venezuela who could end up as solid reliever. He should start out in AA Akron in 2012.

Oh, and Roberto Perez threw out another guy stealing. Just thought I’d sneak that in there.

View From Goodyear: Part Two

2012-03-27T11:30:00.000-04:00

House's 3/4 arm slot

After reveling in the Buckeyes Elite Eight victory Saturday night, I woke up Sunday morning and spent the entire day between the Indians and Reds minor league complexes. AAA Columbus and AA Akron were at “home” against the Reds, but high-A Carolina and low-A Lake County were on the “road” just a few hundred yards away, so I got to see plenty of all four teams in action. Kevin Slowey was starting for AAA Columbus, so that made my decision on where to begin my day a very easy one; off to the Reds side of Goodyear to see the kids in action. Here’s some notes on the game action from the weekend:

T.J. House started for Lake County after all of the starters were pushed down a level or two because of the major league guys needing to get their work in. House’s new (old) ¾ delivery was absolute murder on lefties. His sharp, sweeping slider was impossible for them to hit, and he got several K’s on guys who just waved embarrassingly at the pitch. Things had a chance to go a little bit sideways in the first inning when House gave up a leadoff single that was misplayed into a double, then a little broken-bat looper over the second baseman to score a run, but the settled down quickly, got out of the jam and didn’t give up another run in his 4 innings of work. His fastball was working mostly between 89-92 with really nice arm-side run from the new (old) ¾ delivery.

Jesus Aguilar looks like a man among boys. He looks bigger but leaner, if that makes any sense. Looks like he really hit the offseason conditioning hard. He ripped two doubles that I saw, one off the top of the left-centerfield fence just inches from a HR, then went the other way and drilled one off the right-centerfield fence. As I mentioned yesterday, Aguilar is usually out before the rest of the team getting extra work on his defense, and looks like he will play just fine at 1B. He’ll likely begin 2012 in the offense-challenged Carolina League, which will be a big challenge for him. It will be interesting to see if he can follow up his breakout 2011 with a similar offensive season this year.

C.C. Lee

C.C. Lee is nasty. Just plain nasty. He came on to finish the game in the 9^th inning, and was sitting between 93-95 with his fastball and touched 97. It’s really impressive to see a guy who is that small throw a baseball that hard. He struck out a pair of overmatched Cincy AAA hitters, one on a slider that broke so hard it looked like a Bugs Bunny pitch from my view directly behind the backstop. He’s got the talent to contribute at the big league level right now, it’s just a matter of finding a spot for him in the crowded Indians bullpen.

OF LeVon Washington continued his torrid spring yesterday, going 4-4 with a triple and a run scored. When he was rounding 2^ndon his triple, I heard one of the coaches remark that, “all this kid does is hit triples.” More on this in a later, more in-depth piece, but Washington really came to spring training this year ready to work after a 2011 to forget, and I really expect a big, breakout year for WASHTIME that leaves him in the top-100 prospects in baseball after 2012 is said and done.

Catcher/DH Chun Chen hit a long bomb to left-center field yesterday, clearing the fence by a good margin. He’s been mostly DH’ing for Columbus in camp, so it will be really interesting to see who gets time behind the plate in both Akron and Columbus this year. Chen still needs to develop defensively as a catcher, and he’s not going to do that as a DH. It might end up being a situation where he catches ahead of a guy like Roberto Perez (more on him later) in AA even though the latter player is far superior defensively.

Danny Salazar, recently added to the 40-man roster this offseason, also threw an inning yesterday. He was sitting between 91-94 with his fastball, and overmatched the young Reds hitters in low-A with relative ease. It will be interesting to see how the converted shortstop does this year, as he was a surprise add to the 40-man and the Indians clearly think they have something here.

In a bit of a surprise move, the Indians are switching both Eric Berger and Paulo Espino from their roles in the bullpen back to the starting rotation. I thought Berger was an ideal lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but the Indians still think he can start. It will be really, really interesting to see where these guys slot in which rotation, because the org is already pretty crowded when it comes to starting pitchers. If Berger or Espino ends up in the AA rotation ahead of a kid like T.J. House who has already spent two full seasons in the Carolina League, I’d be awfully disappointed.

Clayton Cook

Clayton Cook threw a couple of innings, sitting mostly between 89-92 with his fastball. It wasn’t the sharpest outing, as he left a couple pitches up and walked a couple of guys, but it’s still early. Cook always seems to pitch badly when I watch him in spring training, so I’m going to try and avoid him next year in Goodyear, for his sake.

I know you’re probably sick of hearing about him from me, but Roberto Perez put on his usual defensive display, throwing out a pair of runners who foolishly tested his arm. The second guy had an enormous jump and I thought he would cruise into second with ease, but Perez gunned him down by half a step. It really is just a lot of fun watching that guy catch.

That’s it for today. I’m off to watch the major league guys take batting practice, then watch the first 6 or so innings of the minor league games before I have to drop off the rental car and head back to the real world. Look for one last recap piece tomorrow based on what I get to see this afternoon.

View From Goodyear: Part One

2012-03-26T12:00:00.000-04:00

Pure Rage

In the past few days down here in the Arizona sunshine, I’ve seen a LOT of baseball, both at the major league and minor league level. From minor leaguers working on bunt plays and PFP all the way up to the big league club in game action, I’ve seen pretty much everything one can see on a baseball diamond. Here are some of the highlights from around the Goodyear complex:

Jason Donald has looked serviceable in centerfield. Not amazing, but certainly not terrible. He made several routine plays, one really good plan on a sinking liner that he had to come in, and then one play where he took a bad route to a ball in the gap and turned a single into a triple. He’s not going to save a ton of runs, but probably won’t give up too many extra runs either.

Pure Rage Perez returned to “live” action on Saturday, facing three hitters in a minor league intersquad game. He only needed 7 pitches to retire the side in order, as OF Delvi Cid grounded out on the 1^st pitch, OF Tyler Holt hit a drive to the track in CF that Trevor Crowe ran down and SS Tony Wolters grounded out sharply to 1B to end the inning. Perez had to hustle over to cover the bag on the Wolters groundout, and was showing no ill effects from the strained oblique that he suffered earlier in the year. Hopefully his body is now ready for the intensity of pitching.

1^st round draft pick Francisco Lindor looks like the real deal. The switch-hitting SS has shown impressive doubles power to all fields from both sides of the plate, especially considering his size. He looks solid in the field, although he hasn’t had a chance to make any crazy plays in the games that I’ve seen. Still, he passes the initial eye test and should be a lot of fun for NE Ohio fans to watch in Lake County this year.

RHP Austin Adams is still not throwing after shoulder tightness sidelined him earlier in camp. Adams assured me that there is no apparent structural damage to the shoulder, and that the Indians are just being conservative at this stage. There’s no reason to push his million-dollar arm in March, so hopefully he throws a few innings in extended spring training and then heads up to Columbus in mid to late April.

RHP Trey Haley was lighting up the radar gun in his two innings of work Saturday in the intersquad games. His fastball was sitting consistently between 94-97, and he touched 99 a couple of times. Haley is an intriguing guy who could really be a breakout prospect this year, as he’s healthy and ready to go at the beginning of the season after struggling with some nagging injuries last year. His command is still coming along, as he walked a couple of guys but if he can harness his stuff, he’s one of the top starting pitching prospects in the organization

RHP Bryce Stowell sat between 91-95 with his fastball, and showed a really impressive slider with excellent life. The fastball still isn’t where it was in his breakout 2010 campaign, but if he can regain his velocity the stuff could still be dominant.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but LHP T.J. House is in the best shape of his life. He lost 27 pounds in the offseason, and really looks solid. After a poor 2011, House tinkered with his delivery, going back to the ¾ arm slot he featured to great success earlier in his career. He’s definitely talented, and hopefully the new (old) arm slot will help him get back to where he was in 2010. The native of Louisiana is a little upset about the harsh penalties levied on coach Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints, but other than that things are looking up for the young lefty in 2012.

Slugging 1B Jesus Aguilar also looks like he’s added some strength in the offseason. Hitting is not the big righty’s problem, as he’s shown some impressive raw power so far in his young career. Defensively though, he’s struggled with his footwork at 1B. Aguilar was out at the fields an hr before the rest of the players on Thursday, getting in extra work with coach Travis Fryman on the defensive side. He looks much more athletic and light on his feet than he did last year, and really seems to be making strides defensively.

Catcher Dwight Childs, usually known more for his defense than his offense, hit a long home run off Bryce Stowell in intersquad action. Childs only has two professional HR’s in 125 career AB’s, but he really got into a Stowell fastball and hit one off the light tower in left field.

WASHTIME!

Outfielder LeVon Washington looks to have added some strength to his frame in the offseason, but he hasn’t lost any of his speed. He’s had a really good spring so far, popping a home run and hitting over .400 for high-A Carolina. Washington’s arm looks much, much better than last season, and he’s much more of a candidate to remain in CF than he was at this time last year.

RHP Rob Bryson seems a little off. He’s sitting between 90-94 with his fastball, which is a little slower than usual. His command is the real concern though, as he’s been walking way too many hitters this spring. It’s still early and I’m not going to condemn a guy to failure just because of a few poor outings in March, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Catcher Eric Haase has been extremely impressive this spring. Drafted and signed out of high school, Haase is one of the younger players in camp but is performing like a veteran. He’s shown remarkable power to the opposite field, something he was forced to develop in high school as pitchers would consistently pitch him away. He’s still learning the intricacies of the position defensively, but his plus athletic ability is making him look awfully good behind the dish. He has the chance to be a five-tool player, something that you don’t see very often for a catcher. I really think the Indians got a steal when the selected him in the 7^thround of the draft last year.

Jason Knapp…still not throwing.

That’s it for today, but more to come later this week. I’ll be back at the fields all day tomorrow before flying out late Monday afternoon. If you have any burning questions about any of the prospects in the org, shoot them to me via Twitter and I’ll do my best to get them answered before I leave town.

A Hot Topic Lazy Sunday at the Hot Corner

2012-03-25T01:52:00.000-04:00

As the most wonderful time of the year (sports-wise) rolls on and the Madness threatens to envelop us all, you’ll excuse me if I’ve been preoccupied with two types of “Mad”-ness recently – the NCAA tournament and re-watching the last season of “Mad Men” in anticipation of Don Draper’s highly anticipated return tonight. Though my focus has wavered a bit, there are some things happening on The Reservation that need to be weighed in on, particularly with…wait for it…Opening Day only weeks away.

With that in mind, let’s get a couple things out of the way before letting loose on the Lazy One – as much attention figures to be paid to which pitchers will be on the Opening Day roster in the 5th starter’s spot and as the last two arms in the bullpen, I’m invoking the “Scott Lewis Clause” to point out that while Jeanmar Gomez is probably going to get 1st crack at the 5th starter spot and while Accardo and Herrmann look to be the leaders in the clubhouse for the Opening Day bullpen, we’re going to see Kevin Slowey at some point this year, just as Hagadone is going to see the inside of the bullpen at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario at some point, as will CC Lee and others that may not even be obvious right now. The insertion of the “Scott Lewis Clause” is not meant to minimize either of these “scrums” for roster spots in the final two weeks – it’s just meant to point out that pitchers are going to move up and down between Cleveland and Columbus all year long because…well, because that’s what pitchers do, because of attrition and injury, and the make-up of the Indians’ rotation on Day 1 or which bullpen arm is coming to mop up in an April blowout interests much less than other issues still facing this team.

Oh no, you say…not another LF screed, right?
No, I’ve had my say on that (a couple of times) and this hesitance to give Shelley Duncan the full-time LF job despite him excelling in Spring Training gives me hope that they realize who Shelley Duncan is (a terrific RH bat off the bench) and who he is not (a suitable everyday LF) and there is still this sneaking suspicion that they’re going to add another OF before Opening Day is hard to ignore. Given Brantley’s injury (which is, unfortunately, unsurprising given his recent injury history), it would seem that the Indians’ need in the OF may actually be more pressing than it was even a week ago.

In terms of possibly adding a OF, that doesn’t change the fact that it is still a little early for teams to be jettisoning players that they may deem to redundant or deal from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness (and…um, Chase Utley’s injury issues seem to be major with a chronic condition in both knees AND one-time-uber-prospect OF Domonic Brown has been sent to Minor-League camp, by the Phillies who are very aware of what Jason Donald could be for them), it still bears watching how (or if) the Indians add to that OF mix. Regardless, given what they’re saying and what they’re not saying, it’s not hard to envision the Tribe’s Opening Day LF not being on this roster right now.

But that’s a topic I’ve already hit on as the topic of the day relates to another everyday position, but one where the Opening Day player is already out in Goodyear. Of course, I’m speaking of this 3B “battle” between Hannahan and Chisenhall.
And with that, let’s get loose on a Hot (Corner) Lazy Sunday…

Since this generally relates with “all the news that’s fit to link”, let’s go back a week and get to the impetus for this piece, the opening to Terry Pluto’s “Notes” on the Tribe (which generally come straight from the Indians) as Pluto starts out with, “two weeks remain in spring training, but right now it appears Jack Hannahan will start at third base, with Lonnie Chisenhall headed to Class AAA. This may open the door for Jose Lopez to make the team as an extra infielder, along with Jason Donald.”

As someone who cares not at all about Jose Lopez or whether he’s on this team and think that Donald is more interesting as trade bait for an OF than he is moving around the diamond (even though I like Donald a lot as a player), I was more than a little surprised at reading this with two weeks remaining in Goodyear. What was even more shocking was most Indians’ fans blindly nodding at this arrangement because is “makes sense” because of Hannahan’s glove or Chisenhall’s struggles or whatever other over-rationalization was out there to attempt to explain why this is the “proper” way for the Indians to start the 2012 season – with Hannahan at 3B EVERYDAY and with Chisenhall in Columbus to “get ready” and “make adjustments” and bide his time before he was needed.
Wait…WHAT!

A team that has offensive questions up and down the lineup – from whether players can replicate career years (Asdrubal, Kotchman), recover from “lost” seasons (Choo and even Brantley), or can carry over momentum from successful starts to their careers (Santana, Kipnis) – is ready to go with the offensively-challenged Jack Hannahan at 3B, despite a young hitter in Lonnie Chisenhall already having logged some 200+ PA in MLB, with no incentive (service-time wise) to keep him in AAA for the year?

Really, the Indians are really considering going with Hannahan as the starting 3B for this team over the “3B of the Future” that we’ve been waiting for since he’s been drafted and carefully tutored by Travis Fryman and everyone seems OK with this?

Truthfully, I’m tired of poking holes in these ideas that certain players on this team are “breaking out” now that they’ve been given a chance, but since this acceptance that Jack Hannahan is the best option to start the 2012 season, let me remind you of a few things…

In his career up to the point of joining the Indians, among 355 players that compiled 950 PA or more from 2006 to 2010, Hannahan’s 78 OPS+ put him 34th…from the bottom of the list, just besting Josh Barfield’s mark of 77 OPS+ over that timeframe and because of that offensive body of work, prior to the 2011 season, Hannahan was an NRI who only became the starting 3B for the 2011 team when Jason Donald was injured in Spring Training…

But…but, he proved in 2011 that he COULD hit given the opportunity - that’s the counter-argument that I can hear from here…
Trust me, I can…

Again, I hate to be the wet blanket here, but Hannahan was the 3B for the better part of the 1st half of 2011 and on June 29th of last year (right after Lonnie Chisenhall was called up), he had a .215 BA / .306 OBP / .336 SLG / .642 OPS batting line in 245 PA in 2011 which – when added to his career totals to that point – means that he had compiled a career batting line up to June 29th of last year that looked like this:
.222 BA / .310 OBP / .290 SLG / .600 OPS in 1,226 MLB PA

Looks pretty similar to what he did in the 1st half of last year, right?
After Chisenhall arrived, Hannahan’s performance at the plate improved to the point that he did this over the 2nd half of the season:
.321 BA / .383 OBP / .491 SLG / .874 OPS in 121 MLB PA

Again, this is becoming tiresome to even have to point out, but it’s necessary to swim against the crushing momentum of the “let’s start Shelley Duncan in LF and Hannahan at 3B” movement that seemingly cannot be stopped, but which Jack Hannahan do you expect at the plate in 2012, given the amount of PA involved in those two batting lines?

Exactly…and with that in mind, let’s go to a piece by Rob Neyer this week, where Neyer voices his skepticism over Hannahan’s 2nd half performance (which, in the linked piece, is attributed to Hannahan using a heavier bat) and puts this comparison into some very clear terms:
Before the second half of last season, Hannahan had never really hit much. Not in the majors, at all. And his only real good minor-league season came in 2007 with the Tigers’ triple-A team in Toledo. It’s possible that he did finally figure something out last summer, after all those years. It’s somewhat more possible that he hit over his head in those 121 plate appearances, and will significantly regress if given another few hundred plate appearances this year.

Hannahan’s competition at third base is 23-year-old Lonnie Chisenhall, who essentially is the Bizarro Hannahan;
* Hannahan is (relatively) old; Chisenhall is young.
* Hannahan can really field but not really hit; Chisenhall can really hit, but is just adequate in the field.
* Hannahan’s been cast off by various organizations; Chisenhall was taken by the Indians in the first round of the 2008 draft, has never known another organization, and a year ago was considered the club’s No. 1 prospect.

Neither player has done much this spring, but the job would seem to be Chisenhall’s to lose. Until and unless, at some point, Hannahan proves that switching bats in your early 30s really can turn around a career.

The skepticism is dripping off of that and the money quote there is that “it’s somewhat more possible that he hit over his head in those 121 plate appearances, and will significantly regress if given another few hundred plate appearances this year” because to really get an idea of “those 121 plate appearance”, you have to put that performance in the proper context.

By that I mean that Neyer points out earlier in the piece when he says that Hannahan “held the every-day (3B) job until the end of June, by which point he’d posted a .215/.306/.336 line”, or a hitting line that is pretty much consistent with what Hannahan had done to that point in his career. As Neyer notes, “Hannahan would start only 27 games the rest of the season. He did hit, though: .321/.383/.491 in 121 plate appearances,” meaning that Hannahan started to thrive at the plate essentially about the time he became a part-time player.

Before pointing out that Hannahan had a better OPS than Orlando Cabrera by all of .005 points on June 29th (Hannahan - .642 OPS, The OC - .637 OPS), let me lay these “two seasons” for Hannahan out for you a little differently, using the “end of June” that Neyer references because the day that Chisenhall arrived (June 27th) could certainly be used as the break-point:
First 79 games of 2011 season (Opening Day to June 29th)
Jack Hannahan – 64 starts, 65 games played
.215 BA / .306 OBP / .336 SLG / .642 OPS with 11 2B and 5 HR in 245 PA

Last 83 games of 2011 season (July 1st to Final Game)
Jack Hannahan – 27 starts, 45 games played
.321 BA / .383 OBP / .491 SLG / .874 OPS with 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR in 121 PA
Look at the number of games in those two “seasons”, where Hannahan played nearly all of the games in the first “half” and played in about ½ of the games, and started less than 1/3 of them in the second “half”.

So Hannahan was most successful last year while he was starting less than 1/3 of the games played by the Indians and, it should be noted, that 2 of those 27 starts came as a 1B as the Indians effectively utilized Hannahan in a part-time role that maximized his defensive prowess and his versatility. Given ½ of a season of everyday plate appearances, Hannahan hit like he always had and, being used as a part-time player/defensive specialist in the 2nd half of the season, he thrived and, in doing so, generated an inexplicable amount of goodwill among the Tribe fanbase, now ready to accept him as the everyday 3B in 2012, despite the presence of (in Neyer’s words) a former 1st round pick and perennial top prospect, who has thrived at every level (that he’s been young in) and who “can really hit” and is “adequate in the field”.

Look…I get the defensive part of the equation and enjoy watching Hannahan ply his trade at 3B more than most and the groundballing staff factor is not lost on me. Heck, I was the one last year that said that because the Indians lacked a more compelling option, that they should go with the best defensive 3B out of Goodyear to start 2011. They did and, for the 1st half, Hannahan did what Hannahan has done – sparkle with the glove and struggle with the bat. Now, given that “compelling option” at 3B that we’ve been waiting quite some time for, someone explain to me again why Hannahan should be handed the 3B job from Opening Day on in 2012 when he was given that opportunity last year and couldn’t hit and didn’t hit his stride until he was used as a part-time player, PARTICULARLY when Lonnie Chisenhall has already started adjusting to MLB?

Though I’m not sure why I seem to be the dissenting voice on this idea that Jack Hannahan or Shelley Duncan…or even Casey Kotchman should be acceptable options for the Indians on Opening Day as EVERYDAY players given that Kotchman is the youngest of the trio at the age of 29 (which he just turned in February) and that, at this time last year, each of those three were NRI’s in Cleveland and Tampa. Now, after a career year for Kotchman (which may or may not have been tied to being “lucky”) and strong finishes to the season for Hannahan and Duncan, now each is being considered as possible everyday starters for 1/3 of the lineup. Again, I understand the role of defense for Kotchman and Hannahan and the fact that no better option is obvious for 1B or LF (at the moment) plays a role, but I fear that this acceptance of that trio on “acceptable” offensive numbers that they MIGHT put forth, largely based upon 2011 stats that may represent unsustainable paths for all three.

Maybe Kotchman’s vision thing is legit and maybe Hannahan’s bigger bat turned him (quite suddenly) into an acceptable everyday 3B option, but I’m skeptical that either should be give everyday AB on this team when – at 3B in particular – more compelling options exist. Please don’t take this to mean that Kotchman and Hannahan aren’t valuable as I certainly see their value, but it is more about maximizing that value instead of going into the season relying on players in their late-20’s/early 30’s with spotty offensive numbers to this point in their career.

Perhaps you’re thinking that they’re sitting at the bottom of the lineup and their defense makes it acceptable, but what that does is put increased pressure on the rest of the lineup and (just to bring this back to the 3B “debate”) given the legitimate concern over Kotchman as an everyday player and the fact that Hafner shouldn’t face a LHP all year, I’m still not sure why this has to be a “this” or “that” equation here at 3B.

That idea is something I alluded to a few weeks ago (and I’ll get to that), but it’s also something that Jonah Keri focused on in a recent interview at Grantland with Tribe GM Chris Antonetti:
Jonah Keri: Do you bench a young, up-and-coming hitter like Chisenhall in favor of Jack Hannahan, one of the best defensive players in the game at any position?
Chris Antonetti: [Hannahan] is great, and we like what Casey Kotchman brings to his position, not only on ground balls, but on balls in the dirt, he’s got tremendous hands. As well as his feeds to other bases. On 3-6-3 double plays, he’s as good as anyone in baseball. So we are very mindful of our infield defense, it’s very important to our team’s success.

JK: Would Hannahan move around, maybe play some second base?
CA: He could. He’s played some multiple positions. First base, second, even a little short. We have to determine what’s best for the team, whether that’s Lonnie as our regular third baseman or Jack as our regular third baseman.
--snip--
JK: Could that be a consideration with Hannahan, play him for the first six innings, then bring in Chisenhall for the rest of the game?
CA: [Indians manager] Manny [Acta] is very creative. We’ve looked at all the players on our roster a lot to try and figure out how we can put the best team on the field. Not only based on the opponent’s pitcher, but also based on the attributes of our own pitchers. For instance, when Josh Tomlin pitches, our outfield defense is probably more important than our infield defense. But when Derek Lowe pitches or Carmona pitches … or Hernandez pitches, those are times where our infield defense is at a premium. And you can find those opportunities, where, OK, even if we think Lonnie is a better offensive player than Jack, you know what, Jack will start the game as long as that starting pitcher is in there. And then if a meaningful spot comes up offensively, and Manny wants to try to leverage that at-bat, he can do that, and finish the game another way.

The whole thing is worth a read, but I love the fact that Keri kept harping on this point with Antonetti, peppering him with relevant questions, perhaps trying to figure out why it would even be a question why Hannahan or Chisenhall would be in competition and why some happy medium would seem to be a better alternative. To that end, does anyone else find it interesting that guys like Neyer and Keri (smart baseball guys not in Cleveland, who are taking an overview of the situation) are asking whether Hannahan will ever hit or how Hannahan could be utilized as a defensive specialist while most seem fine to send Chisenhall to AAA to accommodate Jack Hannahan, starting 3B for YOUR 2012 Cleveland Indians?

Both seem to approach it that the Indians need to slot Hannahan around a (to use Keri’s words) “young, up-and-coming hitter like Chisenhall” and Neyer says that the job is Chisenhall’s to use, yet the accepted narrative on the North Coast is that Hannahan will be the starting 3B.

This cannot be stated enough, but Hannahan’s defense at 3B is great and there are some groundballers on the staff – though Tomlin and Slowey (if he’s the 5th starter) – are extreme FLYBALL pitchers, with Antonetti even acknowledging that “when Josh Tomlin pitches, our OF defense is probably more important than our infield defense” and it would certainly beehove the Indians to maximize defensive efficiency (again, as Antonetti says) “when Derek Lowe pitches or Carmona/Hernandez pitches” (and I’m assuming he just forgot about Masterson?) to put the best infield defense behind them, but this idea that Hannahan should be used as a complementary piece holds more water for me, particularly considering that he thrived when he filled that role down the stretch last year.

Yet somehow, everyone else seems to accept this idea that the best arrangement is with Hannahan being the everyday 3B in Cleveland and with The Chiz heading down I-71. Maybe that’s why I feel like I’m on an island here on this 3B “debate” in that all of it centers around a “Black and White” decision (Hannahan OR Chiz as the EVERYDAY 3B) when there are shades of gray that are actually much more appealing. Allow me to re-introduce those “appealing” shades of gray in something that was laid out at the end of February in this space in pretty specific detail.

Forgive me for the massive cut-and-paste, but it’s an idea that would be fleshed out like this, largely based on the idea that Kotchman and Hafner shouldn’t really face LHP, that is spelled out in greater detail in the piece, which goes on to suggest an alignment that plays up the strengths of the players on hand:
Perhaps the alignment should be Chisenhall playing in the majority of the games at 3B with Hannahan bouncing back and forth between 3B and 1B, based on the pitcher (he’d play 3rd when Masterson or Lowe pitched) and the opposing pitcher (he’d play 1B when Kotchman needed a rest against LHP) with Chisenhall perhaps slotting into some plate appearances at DH, as the Indians attempt to keep Hafner as healthy and fresh as possible throughout the season.
--snip--
While the argument may be that using Chisenhall in any kind of “platoon” situation doesn’t do his development any great favors, perhaps everyday AB would be there for him, particularly in the light that the Indians are going to want to keep Hafner as rested as possible in the interest of maximizing his usefulness. And that’s really what this all boils down to – maximizing the talents of an imperfect group of players to put them in the best positions possible to succeed. These numbers are overly simplistic, but why couldn’t the Indians figure out usage patterns that looked like this:
C
Santana – 120 (vs. RHP)
Marson – 40 (vs. LHP)

1B
Kotchman – 120 (vs. RHP)
Hannahan – 40 (vs. LHP)

3B
Chisenhall – 120 (based on CLE pitcher)
Hannahan – 40 (based on CLE pitcher, when not at 1B)

DH
Hafner – 100 (against RHP only, with other days off)
Santana – 30 (filling in around that)
Chisenhall – 30 (filling in around that)

Breakdown
Santana – 150
Chisenhall – 150
Kotchman – 120
Hafner – 100
Hannahan – 80
Marson – 40

Yes…the numbers wouldn’t be that “clean” on any given position (particularly DH), but you get the main idea here, which is to maximize the effectiveness of these players – keep Hafner healthy and as effective as he can be, allow Santana and Chisenhall to remain in the lineup as much as possible to continue their development while allowing their defensive-oriented back-ups to shine when asked to, prevent Kotchman and Hafner from playing against LHP, prevent Marson from playing against RHP, put the best defensive IF in there when the GB pitchers are going, etc.

Despite the fact that it would seem that there would be a feasible “solution” that would give Chisenhall everyday PA in MLB and would maximize Hannahan’s defensive wizardry, the prevailing thought of the day remains to send Lonnie to Columbus to start the season to “work on things” and to allow Hannahan to begin 2012 as the unquestioned everyday 3B. To that, I would point out what was written in this space last week, how Chisenhall – despite his struggles at the plate last year – needs to be making the adjustments that will allow him to thrive in the Big Leagues in Cleveland and not in Columbus.

Is it possible that Lonnie struggles in the early going in MLB, to the point that the Indians would be looking to send him down to Columbus around Memorial Day if the issues that plagued him last year (and seem to be persisting in Spring Training) aren’t overcome?

Of course, but the alternative is what Hannahan is likely to contribute at the plate (last Memorial Day he had a .229 BA / .310 OBP / .353 SLG / .663 OPS with 11 XBH in 173 PA) and the upside for what Chisenhall could be and the level of improvement that he can attain simply doesn’t exist for Hannahan. Among the crowd that screams that the beginning of the 2012 season represents the beginning of this 2-year window, I can’t see how the idea of an improving and compelling long-term solution like Chisenhall (or even the idea of “an improving and compelling long-term solution) doesn’t make sense, even if you just give Chisenhall a month or two to make the adjustments that he’s going to have to…at the MLB level. As a rival scout was recently quoted in the SI MLB Preview issue, “It’s not like Lonnie Chisenhall is George Brett, but a lefthanded-hitting third baseman is really a valuable commodity. He uses the whole field, and he’s got some pop. Hitting .280 or .300 and playing third—that’s a nice package.”

While nobody is looking for The Chiz to be “George Brett” in 2012, all he really needs to be is more appealing than Jack Hannahan on an everyday basis right now. Given that Hannahan’s success in 2011 at the plate did not start until he became a part-time player in the 2nd “half” of his season, it would seem that there is room for each player on the 2012 Opening Day roster.

As I prepare myself to re-watch the last episode of the last episode of the last season of “Mad Men”, entitled “Tomorrowland”, in anticipation of tonight’s season premiere, it’s impossible not to think that “tomorrow” should begin “now” for the Cleveland Indians at the hot corner and that the title of “3B” is the one that should be permanently handed to Chisenhall, starting now…

Cleveland Indians Prospect Countdown: #5-1

2012-03-23T14:00:00.000-04:00

5. Scott Barnes, LHP

DOB: 9/5/1987

Height/Weight: 6-4/185

Bats/Throws: Left/Left

Acquired: From San Francisco in the 2009 Ryan Garko trade, originally an 8^th round pick of the Giants in 2008

2011 Stats: 8-4, 3.45 ERA, 88 IP, 90 K, 34 BB between AA and AAA

Scouting Report: Barnes just might end up being the biggest beneficiary of the whole Fausto/Roberto rigmarole. He was well on his way to being an option in the major league rotation last year before his season was derailed by a freak ACL tear when he was coming off the mound to field a bunt in July. The good news about the injury is that it was to his knee, and not an arm issue that could raise questions about his ability to stay healthy down the road. He’s not a guy with an incredibly high ceiling, but he also has a pretty high floor.

Barnes throws an above-average fastball that typically sits between 91-94 and has touched 96. He generally locates the pitch well, and the velocity plays up due to his somewhat deceptive delivery. In addition to the fastball, Barnes throws an above-average slider and a changeup that really dives down through the zone. It’s not an overwhelming arsenal, but it is solid in every aspect. His delivery is a little funky and creates some deception, but he does a nice job keeping it consistent and maintaining his release point from game to game and pitch to pitch. He struck out more than a batter per inning last season, and did a nice job with his control with a 3.3 BB/9 ratio.

He doesn’t have much projection left in him, and pretty much is an “is what he is” type of guy at this point in his developmental arc. But just because he doesn’t project to improve to #1 starter potential doesn’t mean he can’t be a useful cog in a big league rotation. And I think it bears repeating; we acquired him straight up for Ryan Garko. He should open the season in the AAA Columbus rotation, but don’t rule out seeing him on the bump at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario before the season is over.

Glass Half-Full: A solid #3 starter in a major league rotation

Glass Half-Empty: A solid #5 starter in a major league rotation

4. Austin Adams, RHP

DOB: 8/19/1986

Height/Weight: 5-11/185

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Acquired: 5^thround draft pick in 2009

2011 Stats: 11-10, 3.77 ERA for AA Akron

Scouting Report: You don’t typically see righthanded pitchers standing less than 6 feet tall in the top-5 of a teams’ prospects, but Adams isn’t your typical sub-6 foot righty. He throws harder than anyone in the system, sitting comfortably in the mid-to-high 90’s and touching triple digits when he needs to reach back for a little extra. In addition to the fastball, he throws a very nice slider that flashes plus, a decent curveball that he feels comfortable throwing at any time and is developing a changeup that still needs refined. Adams was the team’s shortstop and closer at NAIA Faulkner College, and is an impressive athlete who uses his lower half well to get maximum velocity out of his frame. In last year’s top-50 list, I said that Adams was “definitely a guy to keep an eye on, as he wasn’t seen as a top-25 guy entering 2010 but could be a top-10 guy by the time 2012 rolls around.” He’s a power, strikeout pitcher who could develop into a front of a rotation guy sooner rather than later.

Like most starting pitchers, Adams gets into trouble when he starts walking batters and running up his pitch count. He walked 63 hitters while striking out 131 in 136 innings pitched for the Aeros last year. When you add up all those walks and all those strikeouts, you can see how his pitch counts can add up early in some games. He only average about 5 1/3 IP per start last year, and that’s a number that simply has to come up if he’s going to remain in the rotation. He was on a pretty strict pitch count last year, and wasn’t allowed to go over 95 pitches in a game. He’ll likely open 2012 in the rotation for the Columbus Clippers, and will fight with Scott Barnes, David Huff and Jenmar Gomez to be the 1^st pitcher called up in the event of an injury to one of the big club’s starting 5. If necessary, it’s even possible that he could be an impact reliever in the stretch run to the playoffs at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Glass Half-Full: Adams cuts down on the walks and becomes a solid #3 or even a #2 starter

Glass Half-Empty: The control remains an issue and Adams is forced to a bullpen role

3. Tony Wolters, SS

DOB: 6/9/1992

Height/Weight: 5-10/165

Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Acquired: 3^rdround pick in the 2010 draft

2011 Stats: .292/.385/.363 with 1 HR, 20 RBI and 19 SB in 69 games for Mahoning Valley

Scouting Report: Wolters is a gym rat, a grinder, and whatever else you call a kid who plays hard on the field and works hard off of it. He doesn’t have any one single tool that sticks out, but he’s solid across the board. His tools play up due to his baseball intelligence and work ethic. He was drafted out of high school, and turn 20 midway through the 2012 baseball season. He got a late start on his 2011 season after breaking a bone in his hand during spring training, but managed to put together a solid campaign for short season Mahoning Valley once he did manage to get on the field. I remember watching Wolters down in Goodyear last year when he had a cast on his hand, and the guy just couldn’t sit still. He was running around the outfield grabbing loose baseballs before the game, coaching first base during the game, and talking to any coach or player who would listen the rest of the time. I know the word “grinder” still has a negative connotation around Cleveland after Eric Wedge’s propensity to use the word as a synonym for talentless, but Wolters is a grinder who will always work to get the most out of his tools.

Wolters has an above average hit tool to go along with gap power. He’s probably never going to hit a bunch of home runs in the majors, and profiles as a top of the order hitter. He has a solid approach, with 30 walks last year against 49 strikeouts. That’s a pretty solid ratio for a kid straight out of high school in his first exposure to professional pitching. He has a short, compact stroke and does a nice job barreling the baseball on a consistent basis.

Wolters is a solid defender at short, with good hands and an above average arm. His range is average, and because of that and the fact that the Indians have so many talented young shortstops in the organization, many people see a move to 2B in the near future. His bat will definitely play at either middle infield position, and he would probably be a plus defender at second. While he never made it past short season ball last year, Wolters should begin 2012 in low-A Lake County. But the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor at SS might force Wolters to 2B earlier rather than later.

Glass Half-Full: He sticks at SS and becomes a solid 1^stdivision starter

Glass Half-Empty: He ends up at 2B and becomes a solid 2^nddivision starter

2. Dillon Howard, RHP

DOB: 7/1/1992

Height/Weight: 6-4/210

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Acquired:2^nd round pick in 2011

2011 Stats: DNP

Scouting Report: Howard was the Indians 2^nd round pick (#67 overall) in 2011 out of a small Searcy, Arkansas high school. Howard went 9-1 with a 0.31 ERA his senior year, striking out 115 hitters (!) in just 58 innings of work. He allowed just 2 earned runs, and was named the high school player of the year in Arkansas by pretty much anyone that matters. He’s a big, strong kid who should be able to maintain his stuff deep into games. He made it known before the draft that it was going to take a big number for him to sign, which pushed him to the 2^nd round and into the waiting arms of the Indians.

Nearly all scouts had a 1^st round grade on Howard before the draft, and it’s easy to see why. He has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-90’s fastball, low-90’s sinker, a changeup that is at least average and flashes plus, and a developing curveball. The curve can get a little slurvy on occasion and flatten out, so it’s a pitch that Howard will need to work on refining as he climbs the organizational ladder. He has simple, clean and repeatable mechanics that will not need to be tinkered with when the Indians coaching staff gets their hands on him in Goodyear this spring.

In addition to his talent, Howard has a great makeup. The oldest of three sons raised by his single mother, Howard received an over-slot $1.85 million signing bonus. One of the first things he did with the money was not to buy a car, gold chain, an iPad or even a house for his mom. He sat down and found a charity in the Cleveland area that supports the fight against autism, and he wrote them a check. Howard’s youngest brother has autism, so it is clearly a cause that is near to his heart. He donated to the Milestones Autism Organization in Beachwood, Ohio, an extremely worthy non-profit organization. Even if he never throws a pitch in an Indians uniform, Howard has helped to make the Cleveland area a better place. He’ll likely pitch 2012 for low-A Lake County.

Glass half-full: A true #2 starter, or even a low-end ace

Glass half-empty: His curve doesn’t mature and he’s a back-end starter

1 1. Francisco Lindor, SS

DOB: 11/14/1993

Height/Weight: 5-11/175

Bats/Throws: Switch/Right

Acquired: 1^stround pick in 2011

2011 Stats: .316/.350/.350 in 5 games for short-season Mahoning Valley

Scouting Report: Lindor was the top shortstop in the 2011 draft, high school or otherwise. Watching tape of him, I’m struck by just how smooth he looks, both at the plate and in the field. He’s just a natural athlete who makes even difficult plays look easy. When the Indians selected him with the #8 overall pick in last June’s draft, I tried to push “Smooth” as a nickname for him, but it never caught on. Still hoping for that to work out once more people have seen him play. Lindor is still just 17-years old, but is already a natural leader. He was the captain of his high school team, and scouts rave about his makeup both on and off the field.

Lindor has a plus hit tool, above average speed, and projects to have at least average power. He won the AFLAC Home Run Derby last year, which was held at Seattle’s spacious Safeco Field. He powered four home runs to take the title against some of the top power hitters in high school baseball. More impressively, he and the other competitors were hitting with wood in the derby, not metal. He profiles as a top of the order hitter, and a guy that could consistently hit over .300 with 15-20 home runs. He’s a switch hitter, which only adds to his versatility.

Lindor’s real selling point though, is his incredible defense. There are no questions about his ability to stick at shortstop long-term, as his range and arm are both above-average. He has outstanding hands, and makes all the routine plays as well as some jaw-dropping spectacular ones. He’s shown a consistent ability to go deep in the hole to his right and make plays, as well as ranging up the middle to his left. He can throw accurately on the move, and really flashes his athleticism in the field. In case you can’t tell, I really, really like Francisco Lindor. He’s a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball, and with a strong season he could push his way into the top-10 by next offseason. Despite his youth and inexperience, the Indians will likely get aggressive with Lindor and start him at low-A Lake County to begin 2012.

Glass half-full: A perennial all-star, gold glove shortstop

Glass half-empty: A solid defensive shortstop that never hits enough to be elite

Cleveland Indians Prospect Countdown: #10-6

2012-03-22T14:00:00.000-04:00

10. Luigi Rodriguez, CF

DOB: 11/13/1992

Height/Weight: 5-11/165

Bats/Throws: Switch/Right

Acquired: International Free Agent in 2010

2011 Stats: .304/.356/.441 with 3 HR, 19 RBI and 18 SB in 59 games between Rookie league AZ and low-A Lake County.

Scouting Report: A converted 2B, Rodriguez’s calling card is his game-changing speed. He profiles as a true top of the order hitter who can get on base and then be a do some damage once he gets there, almost in the mold of a Kenny Lofton. Despite still learning how to read pitchers and get good jumps, Rodriguez has stolen an impressive 49 bases in his 122 career games. He doesn’t have much power, and really never profiles to hit even double-digit home runs regularly in the upper levels, but leadoff men like him are not easy to find. He has a quick, line-drive bat and can spray line drives all over the park. For his age and experience, he has a solid approach and knows how to take a walk. As an 18-year old in low-A Lake County last year, Rodriguez walked 14 times while striking out 36 in 148 at bats. Not a great ratio, but not bad for an 18-year old in his first taste of full-season ball.

Rodriguez is still learning the intricacies of outfield defense, and still needs to improve his reads and jumps on balls hit his way. His speed allows him to outrun his mistakes in the lower levels, but that’s not going to last forever. He is already a decent defender who projects to be plus once he gets some experience. He has a good arm, but not spectacular. No single tool other than his speed is really elite, but no tool other than power projects to be below average. When you put it all together, he’s an intriguing prospect with the potential to be a solid player at the big league level. Leadoff-hitting center fielders don’t grow on trees, and Rodriguez could potential be just that. He will likely play all of 2012 as a Lake County Captain, and will be one of the many players that makes that team a lot of fun to watch this year.

Glass Half-Full: An everyday CF who gets on base and disrupts the game with his speed

Glass Half-Empty: Zeke Carrera

9. Chen-Chang Lee, RHP

DOB: 10/21/1986

Height/Weight: 5-11/175

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Acquired: International Free Agent in 2008

2011 Stats: 6-1, 1 SV, 2.40 ERA, 99 K, 23 BB in 71 1/3 IP between AA and AAA

Scouting Report: Lee has been one of the more dominant relievers in the system over the past few years, posting gaudy strikeout numbers across several levels of the minor leagues. In 227 1/3 career innings pitched, Lee has struck out an impressive 278 hitters. That averages out to an eye-popping 11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. He’s given up just 0.6 HR/9 in his career, and has a 3.81 K/BB ratio. This isn’t a Cory Burns situation where he’s dominating minor league hitters with a deceptive motion; Lee has outstanding stuff to match those gaudy numbers.

Despite being less than 6 feet tall, Lee gets his fastball up to as high as 97 MPH, and sits comfortably between 92-94. He comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles, throwing anywhere from ¾ to a low sidearm slot. Because of this, his fastball can move in a variety of different ways depending on arm angle and grip. All of this, and his fastball isn’t even his best pitch. That would be his plus slider that has outstanding tilt and is almost unfair to righthanded batters. The pitch can buckle the knees of righties, and has made hitters look awfully foolish over the years.

In addition to the fastball and slider, Lee throws a sinker and a forkball/changeup. The change has good down action when he uses it, but isn’t as effective of a pitch as the slider. Lee is an alumni of the Taiwanese national team, starting for them from 2004-2008. His best start was a dominant outing against international powerhouse Cuba in 2006, going 8 1/3 innings, striking out 6 and allowing just 2 hits in a victory. Since coming stateside, Lee has pretty much exclusively been a reliever as 5’11” righties don’t typically get much of a chance to start. It’s working out well, as his stuff plays up in his relief role and the Indians have a great RP prospect in the pipeline.

Lee might have some trouble breaking in to a crowded Cleveland bullpen, and will likely start the season in AAA Columbus. But he’s the best righthanded reliever in the system, and should be the first guy called up in case of injury or ineffectiveness in the big league bullpen. Either way, he’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch, especially when he’s facing righthanded batters.

Glass Half-Full: A dominant backend reliever

Glass Half-Empty: A solid backend reliever

8. LeVon Washington, OF

DOB: 7/26/1991

Height/Weight: 5-11/175

Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Acquired: 2^ndround pick in 2010

2011 Stats: .225/.340/.319 with 4 HR, 23 RBI and 16 SB in 307 AB in Rookie AZ and low-A

Scouting Report: Washington was a first round pick for Tampa Bay in 2009, but they couldn’t come to terms and he went back to college and ended up getting paid 1^st round money to sign after the Indians took him in the 2^nd round in 2010. Washington is an elite athlete, with outstanding speed and quick hands. He projects to have an above-average hit tool and at least gap power. He has a good feel for the strike zone, a solid approach and should be able to draw at least his share of walks. Coming out of college, he was garnering comparisons to Carl Crawford. Well, both he and Carl Crawford had similar seasons in 2011, and that’s not a good thing.

Both Crawford and Washington struggled with injuries and their swings in 2011. Both came into the season with high expectations, and neither managed to produce very much. Some scouts saw some issues with Washington’s swing, and it’s almost understandable that he struggled to find consistency in his first year using wood bats, especially considering all of the injuries. The tools are still there, but of course at some point the performance has to match up to the scouting reports and that just isn’t something that happened last year.

Washington’s defense projects to be solid, but never really plus. He has great speed and does a nice job running down balls in the outfield, but has had shoulder issues that will prevent him from ever having even an average arm. Because of that, he’ll never really have a chance to be an impact defender.

One of the complaints about Washington coming out of college is that he had a very relaxed attitude on the field, almost disinterested. To his credit, Washington has exhibited a great attitude his entire time with the Indians, and worked hard to rehab from his various injuries. Anyone with a twitter account is well aware that Washington is a bit of a showman, as his all caps tweets of #WASHITIME dominate our timelines. He even designed his own line of #WASHTIME t-shirts, had them made up and sent to some of his fans, all on his own dime. Interestingly though, Washington’s twitter account has been dark since his arrival in Goodyear in late January. It looks like he’s buckling down and doing everything he can to get ready for the upcoming season. He’s a potential breakout player in the system, as the talent is definitely there. He just needs a healthy year to put it all together, and I can’t wait to see what WASHTIME does in 2012. He’s fallen out of pretty much everyone’s organizational top-10 lists, but I’m going to keep him at #9 because I believe in the tools.

Glass Half-Full: 2010 Carl Crawford

Glass Half-Empty: 2011 Carl Crawford

7. Nick Hagadone, LHP

DOB: 1/1/1986

Height/Weight: 6-5/230

Bats/Throws: Left/Left

Acquired: As part of the Victor Martinez deal in 2009. Originally a 1^st round sandwich pick of the Red Sox in 2007

2011 Stats: 11 IP, 11 K, 6 BB, 4.09 ERA at MLB, 71/77/22 2.79 between AA and AAA

Scouting Report: Hagadone is a big, strong, power lefty that has electric stuff. He’s drawn comparisons to Billy Wagner, only taller. That’s some pretty high praise. He worked his way from AA Akron all the way to the majors last year, featuring a plus fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90’s and has touched 99. He pitches primarily off the fastball, and uses it to attack hitters and get ahead in the count. Then he can goes to his above-average to plus slider, a power pitch with sharp, late life. When Hagadone was still a starter, he was working on a changeup, but it’s a pitch that he only has to show on occasion to keep hitters honest not that he’s working exclusively out of the bullpen.

Hagadone was finally healthy last season, and it was his first season as a fulltime reliever. Now that he has some more experience pitching out of the bullpen and is sure of his role going forward, I expect big things out of Hagadone. He made huge strides in his command, going from 6.6 walks per 9 innings in 2010 all the way down to 2.8 in 2011. Hagadone of course had Tommy John surgery in 2008, so it seems like it just took a little while for his command and control to come all the way back to pre-surgery levels. If he can improve his slider command a little, it will go a long ways towards making Hagadone a dominant reliever at the major league level.

Hagadone should be one of three lefties in the bullpen mafia at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this year, and by the end of the season he could end up being the most dominant of the three. While many people this offseason were suggesting that closer Chris Perez could be traded because Pestano would be ready to step in at closer, it might actually be Hagadone that projects to that role in the long-term.

Glass Half-Full: Hagadone ends up as a dominant closer in the majors

Glass Half-Empty: Hagadone ends up as a solid back-end reliever in the majors

6. Ronny Rodriguez, SS

DOB: 4/17/1992

Height/Weight: 6’/170 lbs

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Acquired: International Free Agent in 2010

2011 Stats: .246/.274/.449 with 11 HR, 42 RBI and 10 SB in 98 games for low-A Lake County

Scouting Report: When looking at Rodriguez’s batting line from 2011, you’re probably not blown away. In fact, you may be wondering why he’s ranked this high. Well, first, consider that Rodriguez put up that line in the difficult hitting environment of the Midwest League. Then consider that he did it as a 19-year old. Then bear in mind that he playing professional baseball for the first time ever. Now take another look at that line, especially the power, and understand that this is a kid with the defensive chops to stick at SS. Are you a little more impressed now?

Rodriguez has above-average raw power, and it’s already showing up in games with his 10 HR last year. He has extremely strong wrists and does a good job barreling the baseball on pitches in the zone. He needs to work on pitch recognition (as the .274 OBP indicates), but if he can refine his approach and lay off pitches outside the strike zone, he could become a scary-good hitter. Rodriguez walked just 13 times while striking out 83 in 370 AB last year, numbers that have to improve if he’s going to rise through the system. But again, this is a teenager who was getting his first taste of organized baseball and his first experience with professional pitching, so I’m confident he can adjust and improve.

Like his offense, Rodriguez’s defensive game is imperfect but promising. He has a cannon for an arm and made some spectacular plays at short last year, but still needs to work on the little things like properly circling behind the baseball to make on balance throws, and getting more consistent on the routine plays. He did make 38 errors in his 97 games at SS for the Captains. More than anything, Rodriguez just needs reps, as he’s as raw of a player as you will find in the system. He’ll likely play most of 2012 in high-A Carolina, another difficult league for hitters. A repeat of his 2011 stats with an improvement in the OBP would be a step in the right direction for the raw, toolsy youngster. He has the ability to be an all-star shortstop someday, but that is a long, long ways off.

Glass Half-Full: An all-star shortstop

Glass Half-Empty: He never plays above AA

Cleveland Indians Prospect Countdown: #15-11

2012-03-21T14:00:00.001-04:00

15.Jesus Aguilar, 1B

DOB:6/30/1990

Height/Weight:6-3/240

Bats/Throws:Right/Right

Acquired:International Free Agent in 2007

2011Stats: .284/.359/.506 with 23 HR and 82 RBI in 126 games between low-A and high-A

Scouting Report: Aguilar is a massive kid who looks much bigger than his listed 6’3”, 240lbs. He has light-tower raw power, and when he really gets into a pitch it can go a looong ways. He has as much raw power as anyone in the Indians minor league system, and last year it really started showing up in games. The Midwest League isn’t the most hitter-friendly environment, but the 21-year old Aguilar managed to put up some pretty impressive offensive numbers in his 95 games for the Captains, hitting .292/.370/.544 with 19 HR. Moved upto high-A Kinston and the equally pitcher-friendly Carolina League for the stretch run, Aguilar struggled a little. In 31 games for the K-Tribe, he hit.257/.323/.389 with just 4 HR. Losing .203 off of his OPS in the jump to high-A is concerning, but not a deal breaker in terms of his prospect standing due to the small sample size. His approach could use some work, as he walked 46 times against 126 strikeouts last year.

Aguilar does struggle with his pitch recognition, and has been susceptible to breaking balls down and out of the strike zone. He pounds fastballs up in the zone and excels when he can get his arms extended, but can sometimes get tied up on hard stuff up and in. He’s not unlike most young hitters in this respect, and it’s nothing that he can’t fix with a little effort. His hit tool projects to be no more than average at best, but his power should make up for it. Last year in spring training, he hit a couple of homeruns against the Reds that probably still haven’t landed. The Reds coaches were actually talking about a home run he had hit the day before as Aguilar was launching another ball into the stratosphere.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that if Aguilar’s bat falters, he doesn’t have anything to fall back on. His defense is already below average, and he’s only going to get less mobile as he gets older and bigger. As I said, he already looks bigger than his listed weight of 240,and he’s not going to get any smaller. But if his bat continues to mature, his subpar defense at 1^st will be easy to overlook, and worst case scenario he ends up as a DH down the road.

Glass Half-Full: A middle of the order, TTO guy who plays a passable 1B

Glass Half-Empty: A TTO DH with an emphasis on the K outcome

14.Elvis Araujo, LHP

DOB:7/15/1991

Height/Weight:6-6/215

Bats/Throws:Left/Left

Acquired:InternationalFree Agent in 2007

2011Stats: 9-1 with a 3.36 ERA, with 63 K and 25 BB in 69 2/3IP between Rookie AZL and short-season Mahoning Valley

Scouting Report: Araujo has struggled with injuries over the past few years, but was finally healthy enough in 2011 to throw a pitch in a competitive game, something he hadn’t done since 2008. Araujo threw 57 tantalizing innings as a 16-year old with the Indians Dominican Summer league in 2008, then missed the 2009-2011 seasons with arm injuries. There was no reason to rush the big lefty back to action, as he won’t be old enough to legally order a beer in the states until this summer. He’s already had Tommy John surgery, which I suppose could be a positive if you consider the fact that he won’t ever need it again.

Araujo reminds a lot of people of C.C. Sabathia at age 20, both in appearance and stuff. He’s a big, strong lefty who sits consistently in the low-90’s with his fastball and can reach back for more. As you can imagine from his 6’6” frame, he has great action on the pitch from a nice downward plane. In addition to the plus fastball, he has a slider that flashes plus and could be a dominant pitch once he develops and refines it. His third pitch is a changeup that, put kindly, needs a lot of work. Araujo is nowhere near as refined as Sabathia was when he was pitching for the playoff-bound Indians as a 20-year old, but he’s still drawing those comparisons from some scouts. Araujo should have a shot to pitch most of the season at low-A Lake County, where he’ll join one of the more entertaining rotations in the entire system.

Glass Half-Full: Let’s get him healthy first

Glass Half-Empty: Seriously, a full season on the mound would be awesome at this point

13.Chun Chen, C

DOB:11/1/1988

Height/Weight:6-1/200

Bats/Throws:Right/Right

Acquired:InternationalFree Agent in 2007

2011Stats: .262/.330/.451 with 16 HR and 70 RBI in 113 games for AA Akron

Scouting Report: Chen is an impressive offensive catching prospect who still needs to work on his defense behind the dish. He broke out with a big year in 2010, a season that included an appearance in the MLB Futures Gameduring All-Star Weekend, but didn’t have quite as good of a season in 2011. He moved up to AA and had a solid, but not spectacular offensive season, posting a.781 OPS for the Aeros. After a 2010 where he posted a .924 OPS across two A levels, that was a bit of a disappointment. Still, Chen took some steps forward as a prospect.

Chen’s offense will always be the strongest aspect of his game. He has good bat speed and quick hands that get the bat through the hitting zone in a hurry. He has a nice, compact route to the ball and does a nice job keeping his hands inside the baseball and using all fields. His career minor league numbers are solid, with a line of .272/.357/.446 with 32 HR and173 RBI in 320 games from the complex leagues all the way up to AA. His approach took a bit of a hit last year, with 43 BB and 122 K in 467 AB.

English is not Chen’s 1^st language, and he uses an interpreter to talk to the media but speaks the language well enough to interact with his teammates and pitching staff. Both his English and Spanishare both improving, and it’s something that Chen has really worked hard on in the past couple of years. When I saw him in spring training in 2009, he needed an interpreter when the coaching staff was working with him on the side. In 2011, he was receiving 1-on-1 instruction without the need for his interpreter, so it’s clear that he’s making strides on that front.

Chen’s biggest area in need of improvement is his defense behind the plate. He’s a converted third baseman, so he’s really only four years into his career as a catcher. He’s a good athlete and has a strong arm, so the potential for him to be at least an average defensive catcher is there. The issue is whether or not he’ll be able to fulfill that potential early enough to make an impact at the major league level. Chen allowed 18 passed balls in each of the last two seasons in 142 games behind the plate.That’s not an awful number, but it definitely needs to improve. His strong arm makes up for an average transition from catch to throw, and he’s caught 36% of would-be base stealers in his career. Numbers just can’t tell you how effective defensively a catcher is though, and Chen needs to improve his receiving and handling of pitchers in order to be an effective defensive catcher. But the strides he’s made in the last four years are extremely encouraging, and if he can continue to improve there’s no reason to think he can’t be average behind the dish.

Chen’s bat will play in the major leagues someday,but his prospect standing would take a pretty big hit if he weren’t a catcher.If he’s forced to move to 1B, the bat is just average whereas while he’s behind the dish it is borderline elite. Expect to see him back in AA Akron getting reps behind the dish early in 2012, but he should move up to AAA Columbus atsome point during the season.

Glass Half-Full: Alex Avila

Glass Half-Empty: You remember Max Ramirez, right?

12.Robel Garcia, SS/3B/2B

DOB:3/28/1993

Height/Weight:6/170

Bats/Throws:Switch/Right

Acquired:International Free Agent in 2010

2011Stats: .284/.371/.544 with 6 HR, 24 RBI and 7 SB in 45 games in the AZ Rookie League

Scouting Report: Just 18 years old for all of last season, Garcia showcased some impressive power in the Arizona Rookie League. In addition to his 6 HR, Garcia smoked 10 doubles and 8 triples to finish with his outstanding .544 SLG. He also featured some impressive patience for a young Dominican hitter, finishing with 23 BB. All in all, it added up to a solid .915 OPS for the youngster, a marked improvement over his .613 OPS in the same circuit in 2010.

Garcia has quick, strong hands and projects to have above-average power. His hit tool projects to be at least average, and when you combine all of that with an above-average eye and an advanced approach at the plate, the Indians could really have something on the offensive side of the ball. He’s at least an average runner right now, but that could potentially decrease as he fills out and puts on more weight.

Scouts don’t really see Garcia sticking at SS long-term, but he should be at least an average defender at 2B or 3B. He has a strong arm, so could easily end up at the hot corner. But if he can play 2B, his bat would really play up there, and would be great to see him at second base down the road. He could be an above-average offensive infielder down the road, but we’re an awfully long ways from that as he won’t turn 19 until spring training is nearly over. He’ll likely stick around Arizona once camp breaks, and make his debut for short-season Mahoning Valley.

Glass Half-Full: A first-division starter at 2B or 3B

Glass Half-Empty: A lot can happen between 18 years old and The Show

11.Felix Sterling, RHP

DOB:3/15/1993

Height/Weight:6-3/200

Bats/Throws:Right/Right

Acquired:International Free Agent in 2009

2011Stats: 4-6, 4.12 ERA, 66 K and 33 BB in 67 2/3 IP

Scouting Report: Sterling is a strong, power righty who has a lot of potential but is also extremely raw. He’s already a pretty big guy, but has a projectable frame and will likely fill out and develop even more muscle on his frame. He has a plus fastball, and he sets everything up with that pitch. His fastball sits comfortably in the low-to-mid 90’s, and it’s his best pitch at this stage of his development. He also has a developing slider that flashes plus, and should be his out pitch once he refines the command and movement. The key to Sterling becoming an effective starter long-term is his changeup, which would be the third pitch in his repertoire.

Sterling struggled a little when he stepped up to low-A Lake County last year. He had 9 starts for the Captains, going 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 35 K and 25 BB in 41 1/3 IP. It was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning, and his 5.4 BB/9 ratio was especially concerning. Then again, he was an 18-year old in his first taste of full season ball, so maybe it’s nothing to worry about. Still, it bears monitoring going forward, as command was one of the things he needed to work on heading into last season. He’ll likely begin the 2012 season in the Lake County rotation as a 19-year old, and will be a fun guy to watch pitch this year.

Glass Half-Full: Sterling has the stuff and body type to be a #2 starter in the show

Glass Half-Empty: He’s a long ways off, and needs to refine his command and develop his changeup first