tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post3068148004865112017..comments2024-03-16T08:21:16.037-04:00Comments on The DiaTribe: A Lazy Sunday with MLB FA and The BLCPaul Cousineauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-20217152807365448612010-12-14T10:42:18.397-05:002010-12-14T10:42:18.397-05:00Realistically, Choo is a bridge to the young guys ...Realistically, Choo is a bridge to the young guys as one of their few really good players. When you are waiting for young talent to mature, you can't get rid of your best player who is relatively cheap and under your control for the next three seasons.<br /><br />I say play the guy, pay him what he earns and let him go as a type A free agent after 2013. He won't accept arbitration with Boras as his rep. The Tribe should be really good by then and if you have a RF who can go .300/.400/20/20 you keep him to help win you some division titles and maybe more. With the bulk of young talent they have coming they can afford to let him walk because he won't be a "core" guy in the same age and service bracket as the rest of the team, but he can sure help them win for the next three seasons. Imagine if they get some help around him.<br /><br />It will be a struggle in 2011, but by no means would I write off the Indians.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-70163804406515014202010-12-13T21:36:42.701-05:002010-12-13T21:36:42.701-05:00I know you're not a nut, but I also know Phil ...I know you're not a nut, but I also know Phil Hughes won't be appearing in Cleveland any time soon, other than in his Yankee pinstripes.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-71790881460776347872010-12-13T17:20:33.919-05:002010-12-13T17:20:33.919-05:00I would in fact trade choo for a Hughes based retu...I would in fact trade choo for a Hughes based return. To agree with you by paraphrasing myself, plainly the math of the trade has to be sensible. I'm a pessimist but I'm not a nut.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-67516707118873243422010-12-13T15:53:25.405-05:002010-12-13T15:53:25.405-05:00Tyler -- My point is, look at what return teams ar...Tyler -- My point is, look at what return teams are getting for good players right now (and specifically for Lee last year). I'm saying that Choo has value for the next three years as a player and that they won't get equal value for three years of his service. Also, even in arb, what's he going to make THIS year -- 6 million? Big deal.<br /><br />The Indians are better and closer than the Royals, and they don't have someone who's won a Cy Young sitting there thinking he's wasting his time and wanting dealt. So let him play this year and see where you're at, because if you deal him now it stunts your team growth considerably.<br /><br />If they deal him now to, say, the Yankees who missed out on Crawford (or the Angels) you better be bringing back the brightest and the best (and someone named Phil Hughes -- Paul, remember when I said CC or Lee straight up for Hughes was a good idea?)<br /><br />Anyway, the Royals are already being rebuffed in their asking price of two prime prospects from the Blue Jays. Teams aren't gonna pay what Choo is worth so keep him and hope the team gels.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-91072226227492791822010-12-13T15:09:40.335-05:002010-12-13T15:09:40.335-05:00@Halifax: Sure, I'll take the bait. Bear in mi...@Halifax: Sure, I'll take the bait. Bear in mind that I luuuuv SSC. I'm just thinking that one way to push the boundaries of this rigged system, as Paul outlined it, would be to ship Choo out BEFORE he gets expensive. You can't tell me there isn't a package that would make it work. The question is whether anybody's willing to pay it.<br /><br />As to your specific counter-argument -- that the Indians may as well soak up Choo's arb value themselves before trading him, because the return will be the same, I disagree.<br /><br />1. Choo's healthy and incredibly productive right now, and his injury history isn't sparkling. You're not just moving the player, you're moving the risk that he blows up on you. The Indians might have some protection here on a year-to-year deal, but that'll be cold comfort if Choo gets hurt or declines in his contract year.<br /><br />2. With Werth and Crawford off the market, there's no all-around impact player of Choo's caliber available, and certainly not at his relative cost. It's "name your price" time. That's less likely to be true in the future.<br /><br />3. If the Indians move Choo before he gets expensive, they won't have to pull their usual deadline-deal trick of sending cash to get better prospects. So, summing that with Paul's math, they're saving at least $25MM over the next three years. I know what you're thinking -- "I'd rather have Choo than $25MM" -- but it's a potentially difference-making sum in other extension talks and signing bonuses.<br /><br />If you believe, as I do, that 2011 is forfeit and 2012 is a coin-flip at best, then I think you've got to admit the prospect of cashing in our Shin-Soo Chips is more intriguing. Still, I'll concede that trading Choo means discounting his value some, but it also means ensuring we get it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-33071527590193139122010-12-13T09:42:27.149-05:002010-12-13T09:42:27.149-05:00Boy, could you imagine if they traded Choo now, gi...Boy, could you imagine if they traded Choo now, given that he (and he alone) is on the season tix renewal folder and their one "known" quantity. <br />Maybe they really don't care about PR, but...oof.<br /><br />It is interesting in the last year or so how many said that the Royals should trade Grienke because of his status of club control and with the Royals going nowhere in the near future. Now, with 2 years left on his deal, he's on the open market.<br /><br />Are the Indians further along than the Royals?<br /><br />I'm not sure, but there could be some precedent set for comparable packages this Winter if Grienke and (more interestingly) Garza are moved as Garza is entering his first year of arby eligibility as well.Paul Cousineauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-42617178169308840132010-12-12T19:21:07.086-05:002010-12-12T19:21:07.086-05:00Because you'll get the same package for him at...Because you'll get the same package for him at the trade deadline 2013 as you will right now.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-65998880483959019492010-12-12T13:48:47.265-05:002010-12-12T13:48:47.265-05:00@Aaron, the Sizemore deal makes more sense if you ...@Aaron, the Sizemore deal makes more sense if you suspect, as I do, that the Indians had an inkling about his durability issues -- i.e., less of a "steal," more of Grady capitalizing on a shorter career shelf-life.<br /><br />@Paul, I'll see your "go year-to-year with Choo," and raise you a "trade him now." Somebody would bleed through their shirt to get Choo. If you concede that the Indians are two years away, why not turn Choo into value two years from now, as opposed to value over those two years? Can't nobody be worried about alienating the fan-base at this nadir.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-21900878548216093032010-12-12T13:17:09.887-05:002010-12-12T13:17:09.887-05:00Sizemore's contract looked like a steal, but n...Sizemore's contract looked like a steal, but now were just hoping he can return to full health so we can get something (if were not in contention in 2012) meaningful in return before the `12 trade deadline. <br /><br />But it's worth asking.. Do we even want to pick up his 2012 option? At this point, No.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-37385877889265283532010-12-12T11:05:22.603-05:002010-12-12T11:05:22.603-05:00Lots of good stuff here as usual, Paul. But, Statl...Lots of good stuff here as usual, Paul. But, Statler and Waldorf...seriously, I do believe you've outdone YOURSELF with a Muppets reference. And may I be the first (or maybe not) to submit our favorite PD beat writer as Oscar the Grouch [ http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Oscar_the_Grouch ]?Joel Shapirahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17146489089620419469noreply@blogger.com