tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post4579201774290274281..comments2024-03-16T08:21:16.037-04:00Comments on The DiaTribe: Trading Arms on a Lazy SundayPaul Cousineauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-92005378131208231942009-12-29T12:41:15.453-05:002009-12-29T12:41:15.453-05:00Great piece, lots of interesting nuggets in there....Great piece, lots of interesting nuggets in there.<br /><br />One small nit to pick, and I think Phillies fans have missed this, too. I don't think it really adds up to somehow equate Type A draft picks with prospects who will be knocking on the door of the majors around 2012. Cliff Lee pitches the 2010 season, departs, compensation picks are drafted in June 2011, signed in August, don't even play a full pro season until 2012. So the timeline on these players is not really all that similar. One group will be nearing the majors in 2012, while the other will be just starting their pro careers.<br /><br />I also think part of the nuance being missed in Philly is that you don't only restock the farm system to provide future big-leaguers -- far future -- but also to provide more trade fodder in the NEAR future. Amaro is smart enough to know that you spend the first two months of the season figuring out what you need, the next two months acquiring what you need, and the last two months playing it out. With some the best Phillies prospects going out the door over the last five months, who exactly are the Phillies supposed to trade in July, when one need or another inevitably arises on the roster?<br /><br />In short, it is inconceivable that Amaro is thinking mostly about having young blood to contend in 2012-2013, which is beyond the contractual and peak windows of Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc. He's thinking about having quality prospects to trade for major leaguers in 2010 and 2011, which is their clear window of opportunity.<br /><br />One other thing. I suspect other GMs are more concerned about Cliff's durability than his signability. I think he was quite signable, but in a bandbox like Philly has, taking Halladay for three years instead of Cliff for four is a no-brainer.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17506129155693983095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-26442272755799909242009-12-22T13:14:35.984-05:002009-12-22T13:14:35.984-05:00sptguy1969,
I can appreciate the fact that those t...sptguy1969,<br />I can appreciate the fact that those things about Carrasco’s tendencies or shortcomings may be true, just as what you say about Drabek may be just as valid. The point of the exercise is that at the beginning of the 2009 season, Carrasco was the Phillies’ #1 prospect in Baseball Prospectus (and their only 5-star prospect) while B-Pro rated Drabek the #3 prospect (4-stars) and Carrasco was ranked the Phillies #2 prospect coming into the season by Baseball America while Drabek was #5.<br /><br />Given that the Halladay talk started in mid-July, which is when Drabek became the hot name, does that mean that feelings on those two changed THAT MUCH from mid-April to mid-July to Drabek being the “untouchable” based on 3 months of AA pitching while CarCar became the “disappointment” based on those same 3 months. <br /><br />Obviously statistics don’t tell the whole story, but I have trouble believing that everything that had made Carrasco a Top 50 prospect for 3 straight years, at every level, simply left him in a 3-month stretch in AAA. Maybe it did and maybe Drabek was THAT much more impressive to start out the 2009 season, but the prospect rankings are there for both prior to 2009 and Carrasco was ALWAYS seen as the better prospect.<br /><br />What bothers me is that everyone grew enamored with Drabek because that’s who Toronto wanted and the word “untouchable” became associated with him, while Carrasco (seemingly because of a rough start in 2009) became this arm that the Indians “settled” for because they couldn’t get Drabek.<br /><br />Again, what you say may be completely valid, but the fact that Drabek is only 5 ½ months younger and has yet to be fully exposed even against AAA pitching (which Carrasco has) doesn’t make me feel that he’s head-and-shoulders above Carrasco as a prospect, intangibles considered.Paul Cousineauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-4337566985075170432009-12-22T01:38:43.600-05:002009-12-22T01:38:43.600-05:00Paul,
I read this blog from time to time and do en...Paul,<br />I read this blog from time to time and do enjoy your various takes on certain issues. I don't comment much but after reading the breakdown on the various returns for Lee this past year, I wanted to just point something out that I felt warranted mentioning.<br /><br />Your breakdown by the numbers on Carrasco was very interesting and certainly should indicate to most level headed individuals that he possesses the talent to be a viable starting pitcher in the majors. But while those are the tangible things one can touch on for why Carrasco was highly regarded (and should still be), could it be that he's lacking in areas that stats can't measure, and thus that's why he's recently been looked at in a different light by some talent evaluators. Perhaps he hasn't demonstrated an ability to pitch effectively when he doesn't have his best stuff. Maybe he's susceptible to falling in love with his offspeed pitches, or he stubbornly tries to overpower hitters who are sitting on his fastball. Maybe he doesn't take to coaching well, doesn't make in-game adjustments, or starts to pout and become moody when he's not getting calls from the plate umpire. Perhaps he's not viewed as being mentally tough. <br /><br />Conversly, maybe one reason Kyle Drabek is held in such high esteem is because he excels in some of these areas. Lord knows, at just around 6-foot, it's got to be something because he's not blowing scouts away because he's got the ideal "pitcher's build."<br /><br />I know stats can break down most everything in baseball (and trust me, I believe in their use and use them myself in many facets of evaluating baseball) but sometimes one can't depend on stats exclusively without at least considering the intangible elements that may be in play in talent evaluation.<br /><br />Take care and happy holidaysUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06189569045008909162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-72774456918840430432009-12-21T22:29:15.373-05:002009-12-21T22:29:15.373-05:00I've always enjoyed the blog myself. Always ex...I've always enjoyed the blog myself. Always excellent analysis. I've been reading for a few years now, but I think this is the first time I've actually commented.<br /><br />However, to Jon, as a guy who comments on CastroTurf, I'm afraid I resent your comment. Sorry to disappoint.jakrumwiedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10429153251566749405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-39044650217375748322009-12-21T18:30:13.489-05:002009-12-21T18:30:13.489-05:00Mitch Talbot. Hooray.Mitch Talbot. Hooray.R.M. Jenningshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00598904864402266767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-47794732500162899082009-12-21T15:50:36.402-05:002009-12-21T15:50:36.402-05:00Jon,
Thanks, I appreciate that...particularly in ...Jon, <br />Thanks, I appreciate that...particularly in an off-season as slow as this one.<br /><br />'moran,<br />I'm pretty sure that since it is a Time Warner station that it's only carried on Time Warner and isn't available on the Dish.Paul Cousineauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-1517431972899406792009-12-21T10:26:53.563-05:002009-12-21T10:26:53.563-05:00good luck in the studio and the delivery room...i&...good luck in the studio and the delivery room...i'm trying to have my mom record the les levine show, is it shown on the dish network?Baltimoranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08224994781147499885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-71406809881734777662009-12-20T11:52:41.815-05:002009-12-20T11:52:41.815-05:00It is this type of level-headed examination and re...It is this type of level-headed examination and reason that keeps me consistently coming back to this site. After reading the comments (don't ask me why I keep doing it) on cleveland.com or Castroturf or the Indians Facebook page, I wonder if any Indians fans have a brain in their heads. (As a sidebar, I live in Detroit and it's no better here.) But the DiaTribe and Let's Go Tribe (mostly) remind me that there are intelligent Tribe fans out there.<br /><br />While the Lee deal didn't have the sizzle of the CC trade, your analysis and comparison to the Colon trade a few years ago gives us plenty of ammunition to argue with the morons and enough hope that Shapiro isn't the simple-headed dunce that so many seem to think he is. <br /><br />Despite low expectations for the 2010 season, I'm still excited to watch LaPorta, Asdrubal and Brantley develop and hope that Jake and Pronk can come back. <br /><br />Keep up the great work!nothinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10671720789210234123noreply@blogger.com