tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post5950314241815982732..comments2024-03-16T08:21:16.037-04:00Comments on The DiaTribe: Tomahawks Cutting Through the GossamerPaul Cousineauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03490622970961409253noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-4014355495442505642012-08-04T12:49:29.181-04:002012-08-04T12:49:29.181-04:00I generally agree with your analysis Anon, but I t...I generally agree with your analysis Anon, but I think the Ubaldo trade may fall into an indefensible trade.<br /><br />If you use the same reasoning that the tribe could not have seen into the crystal ball and foreseen the injuries, dumbassness, and lack of development for White and Pomeranz over the last year, you are left with the evaluation of Ubaldo's talent.<br /><br />They believed they could fix his delivery, his personality, and his mental approach, and that he was worth two highly regarded first round picks. I would argue that they may have found the answer to the first problem, but the other two have not been fixable. Even if we assume that Pomz and White develop exactly how they have for the Rockies had they stayed in Cleveland, then the argument should be made that the Tribe should have received better value for them while trading them at their peak value.<br /><br />That trade, and the terrible drafting of the past decade, has completely ruined what should have been the next window of opportunity after the one that the 2007 squad failed to cash in on. That, and the complete regression of the pitching staff this year, is the most frustrating part of watching the wasted value of the prime years of Choo, Cabrera, and Kip. Santanna should be on that list, but he has regressed so far as to have me seriously worried about him going forward.Spillshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08413824903442574052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-11355428955779599552012-08-03T09:23:24.275-04:002012-08-03T09:23:24.275-04:00@Hyde: I think you're actually making my point...@Hyde: I think you're actually making my point.<br /><br />Asdrubal for Perez? The entire career of a ridiculously young switch-hitting middle-infielder for half a season of a 54-year-old first baseman? To use your word: indefensible.<br /><br />Sabathia for prospects? Half a season of a top-ten starter that wasn't going to re-sign, in a losing season, for the entire careers of a legit upper-division power prospect and some other well-regarded guys? It's cringe-inducing knowing what we know now, sure, but I don't think we can pretend in good faith that the consensus was LaPorta would struggle the way that he has. "Wrong, in retrospect" ain't "indefensible."<br /><br />The Lee trade's a more interesting conversation, that I'll grant you. I feel people tend to elide Lee's extensive injury history -- and the fact that he's spent a lot of time on the DL since. It both hurt his value and served as an incentive for the Indians to move him while he was healthy. See, I just mounted a defense of that trade: the return has been stuck in the surgery ward, but that's not what "indefensible" means in this context.<br /><br />I'm not "implying that there weren't other teams to deal with" so much as I'm giving the Indians the benefit of the doubt that they struck deals with the teams they could bend farthest over the barrel. I hope I'm inflecting enough nuance here: I wish they'd got good players who also stayed healthy -- I just don't see, as others do, that the Lee and Sabathia deals are evidence of the front office's ludicrous incompetence. Good judgment can yield bad results. You can even lose your job for exercising good judgment. But that doesn't make it bad judgment.<br /><br />Mostly I disagree with the assertion that this front office is clueless on player evaluation in trades. How can we square that with their successes in supposedly minor trades -- Chris Perez being the most relevant example? If you're calling that blind squirrels finding a nut, then you're acknowledging how great a factor luck is in trades. And, again, I guess that leaves open the possibility that their talent evaluation is okay and they're just lousy negotiators. I don't see it, but, hey, maybe.<br /><br />Which brings me back to my other point -- it's next to impossible to get equal return on trading a Sabathia. There are maybe eight pitchers that good and durable in baseball. The likelihood that even the most prospectiest prospect of all the prospects will be anything remotely like Sabathia is minuscule. So, yeah, by that logic, they're all salary dumps, and I don't see what the alternative is when you can't extend the player. Life's unfair.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12645578572957938828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-57618434312420450582012-08-03T00:49:16.251-04:002012-08-03T00:49:16.251-04:00@Unknown: Your comment regarding revisionist histo...@Unknown: Your comment regarding revisionist history on the LaPorta trade is of a genre I've seen before from folks who want to stand up for bad ideas--the "It was a good idea, but it just didn't work out" genre. The problem is that in practice, there's no difference at all between "a good idea that didn't work out" and a bad idea. Put it this way: if a Mariners fan was to tell you that the trade of Asdrubal Cabrera for the last 1% of Eduardo Perez's career was "a good idea that just didn't work out," you and me would both laugh in his face. But what's the difference? A bad trade is a bad trade. <br /><br />There <i>were</i> questions about LaPorta at the time of the trade, and of course, there was no rule saying Sabathia had to be dealt to the Brewers. At the time of the deal, I for one was wondering what the rush was, with so much time left before the trade deadline. They hardly could have done worse by waiting. <br /><br />The Lee trade was obviously indefensible all along: a transparent salary dump that has netted the team one decent season from Carrasco (hopefully there will be others) and a potentially interesting trade piece in Marson. Again, not good enough. And again, you keep implying that the teams we did trade with were the only teams we could have possibly traded with. <br /><br />My feeling on the buyers vs. sellers argument is that without knowing what potential trades were out there, we probably did the right thing. We had nothing useful to sell except players we control for at least next year, and considering we are looking at our fifth straight losing season, I would not endorse any trades "for the future" that figure to weaken us for 2013 and make it six straight, leaving aside that I do not trust the current front office to be able to pull off such trades.<br /><br />So yeah, I disagree with Nate re giving up on next season already. Five years of losing is too many as it is.Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03984348525069741897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-60080059667091095832012-08-02T15:28:10.038-04:002012-08-02T15:28:10.038-04:00Oh, and to no one in particular, about Ubaldo: Get...Oh, and to no one in particular, about Ubaldo: Get back to me when Pomeranz and White (1) stay on a 25-man for any length of time, and (2) learn a third pitch. Jiminez is a mess, but to date what we gave up has hardly been worth worrying about.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12645578572957938828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-19497218303252270042012-08-02T15:11:59.529-04:002012-08-02T15:11:59.529-04:00@Adam ... I'm positing that the real reason th...@Adam ... I'm positing that the real reason the big-ticket Indians trades have disappointed is injuries.<br /><br />LaPorta's hip and toe stuff, in his formative MLB season, was quite serious. Brantley has only this year managed to stay on the field for any length of time. Carrasco's elbow exploded.<br /><br />I'm not saying, don't evaluate trades based on their outcomes, and I'm certainly not saying, this front office has been above reproach. I'm saying, don't pretend anybody can reliably predict injuries -- and but for the injuries to those three players, this team, and those trades, would almost certainly be viewed more favorably.<br /><br />Re: Carrasco vs. whatsisface, check the archives.<br /><br />Re: Oakland .... every small-market team is making moves like that, nearly every season -- including, for the half-decade of .500ish finishes leading up to this year, Oakland itself.<br /><br />And now in one terrific season, a couple of them worked out, simultaneously, quickly, for the A's. Nobody's going to argue that Billy Beane isn't good at his job, but the exception doesn't prove the rule.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12645578572957938828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-3502508053003396292012-08-02T13:53:41.607-04:002012-08-02T13:53:41.607-04:00What is apparent reading the various comments is t...What is apparent reading the various comments is the utter exasperation of fans at the state of the club...the Ubaldo move has set back the window of contention by several years. We'll never know what White and Pomeranz could have done in Cleveland. Personally, I thought Asdrubal should have been shopped at the deadline. He won't be here when the window reopens...the A's were looking for a shortstop and might still be this offseason. They have a glut of talented arms...the Tribe lacks starting pitching prospects that have true front of the rotation stuff. Let's tear it down and try to get back in the conversation in 2014 or 2015.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09254078706742935547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-18354901379700623342012-08-02T12:21:01.385-04:002012-08-02T12:21:01.385-04:00@Unknown: I’m not sure how you could call evaluat...@Unknown: I’m not sure how you could call evaluating a trade a few years down the road revisionist. The thing about trading for prospects is that it takes them a few years to pan out, ascend through the minors, and ultimately reach their full potential. I’m not saying the front office has been a total failure, but ultimately Beane and Oakland do not swing and miss on trades. I’m not sure what Euclidian geometry has to do with Mashed Potatoes. I’m not sure what Laporta’s injured toe has to do with him never being able to hit a curveball. That’s where scouting comes in (a huge part of the front office’s role). And while Brantley is a fine player, I can concretely say that the haul was not enough, to get one decent major leaguer for a hall of famer is just not enough. As far as the Lee trade, you seem to be very high on Carrasco until the horrible unpredictable injury reared its head. But remember, Carrasco was not even the best prospect in Philly and Antonetti was criticized nationally for not getting Drabek. Assuming Carrasco is the next coming of Juan Marichal (and I think he’s a number 3 starter) at best, all they got for Lee is Marson (a career backup catcher) and Donald (a career minor league infielder), and Knapp who had arm troubles when we traded for him and still does. Compare this to the huge haul that Beane got for Bailey, Gonzalez, and Cahill (Parker – a front line starter, Milone-- a solid lefty maybe number 3 or 4 career starter, Reddick – 22 homers All-Star this year, Cook – lights out closer All-star this year, Norris—solid backup catcher) and these are just the guys at the major league level already, not including any of the other prospects and you realize that Oakland and Beane are outclassing the Indians (and most other small market teams) by a ton. Oh, and let’s not forget who signed Cespedes (currently hitting about .310 with 15 homers) and who passed on him. Blame injuries, blame the weather, etc. Bottom line is a quick rebuild without a “window is possible” and the over/under on the A’s wins this year in Vegas was a paltry 73, while the Indians total was 84. <br />All this goes to say that, while the Indians front office has certainly made some good moves, you really can’t afford to miss on any big time trades. And I count Lee, Sababthia, and Jimenez as unqualified abortions, which in my opinion goes a long way to point to why this team is out of it with 2 months to go.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11663077750759819578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-2882903808803432372012-08-02T11:54:41.762-04:002012-08-02T11:54:41.762-04:00Check out the Rays last ten games and say that aga...Check out the Rays last ten games and say that again.<br /><br />Their hitting is atrocious...pitching, not so much.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-8326523413349208982012-08-02T10:01:56.937-04:002012-08-02T10:01:56.937-04:00The Indians have scored 11 runs in the five-game l...The Indians have scored 11 runs in the five-game losing streak. Let's agree that no pitching addition would have created a situation where they would expect to be successful while averaging 2.2 runs per game.Michael Curryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12572501577099131133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-31411873691195608362012-08-02T09:45:02.375-04:002012-08-02T09:45:02.375-04:00@Adam: Whining about the returns on the Sabathia a...@Adam: Whining about the returns on the Sabathia and Lee trades is revisionist in the extreme.<br /><br />Find me a single recognized commentator who predicted at the time of the trade -- straight-up PREDICTED, not "on the other hand"ed -- that LaPorta would be injury-prone and lack big-league-quality pitch recognition. The Brewers were the perfect trade partner -- desperate and position-player prospect-rich -- and we swiped the jewel of their system. As far as we know, everybody was right and LaPorta's toe and hip injuries ruined him. It happens.<br /><br />And the Lee trade, are you kidding me? Carrasco was, and frankly still may be, a legit, mature, high-level power arm, cost-controlled, under club control for years. The man's elbow blew up. Again: the Indians identified the team willing to pay the most and extracted its best prospect. (Yes, "best". Unless you're still arguing that Dom Brown and Michael Taylor and that kid Toronto got are more valuable, irrespective of the fact that none of them can stay on a 25-man even when they're not rehabbing.) And, again: injuries occur.<br /><br />There are plenty of valid criticisms of this front office. Yours, however, boils down to: Shaponetti didn't use a crystal ball to know that their primo trade targets would get hurt. You can't chalk up their successes -- McCallister, Masterson, Perez, the Seattle trades -- to dumb luck, and then not recognize luck as a factor when it comes to exploding elbow tendons and hip sockets.<br /><br />The question you're not asking is, why were they so dependent on those trades' working out?<br /><br />One last thought: you'll never, ever trade a Cy Young winner and get equal value. Not even when you cover the rest of his salary. Prospects, even good ones, are ultimately a commodity item; the best ~10 starting pitchers on the planet are not.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12645578572957938828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-41848630919665021082012-08-02T08:59:32.208-04:002012-08-02T08:59:32.208-04:00Deal for Lee and cash. The Phillies are stripping....Deal for Lee and cash. The Phillies are stripping.<br /><br />Lindor/Kluber/Phelps<br />for Lee and $39M<br /><br />Tribe gets Lee for three years at $13M per season, but while they still have Brantley, Choo, Cabrera, Kipnis, Chiz, Santana, Marson -- they actually would have a decent rotation in Lee, Masterson, Ubaldo, Fuasto, Carrasco, McAllister...<br /><br />They obviously would have some extra cash in losing the above-mentioned guys, almost $30M, then go out and get yourself a hitter or two.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-63217630819765117092012-08-01T15:55:26.705-04:002012-08-01T15:55:26.705-04:00CP Lee seems to be trade dross for everyone. Unve...CP Lee seems to be trade dross for everyone. Unverified, but on another site one commenter claims he added up all the WAR brought to teams in trades for Lee and it totalled .8<br /><br />Still, Oakland's success trading pitchers is a contrast worth discussing.MTFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14410882434875111748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-78889050446264625562012-08-01T15:43:45.802-04:002012-08-01T15:43:45.802-04:00In my opinion the front office has simply "sw...In my opinion the front office has simply "swung and missed" on this season. And while we all can acknowledge how difficult it is being a small market team in the water with the "big money" teams and cry about payroll disparity and TV revenue, teams like Oakland have made all the right moves and are fully in contention, while teams like the Indians have made all the worng ones. <br /><br />As a resident of Oakland, I've watched right before my eyes a team that figured to be in a total rebuild this year and probably the next few, turn themselves into a legit contender all on the strength of the orgination's unbelieveable trades, signings, talent evaluations, etc. <br /><br />Meanwhile you see a team like the Indians who figured to be a legit contender, take a nosedive and you start to see the difference between a good front office and a bad one. Now, I think it'd be a mistake to say that every move Cleveland's front office has made has been a bad one, but over the last few years most of the trades we've made and free agent signings have been unqualified disasters. To have 2 pitchers like Lee and Sabathia I think you have to get more than Brantley, Laporta, Marson, Carrasco and a bunch of minor leaguers. The Jimenez trade I think can also be qualified as a failure. In addition the veteran signings of Lowe, Kotchman, Damon, Slowey and Hannahan have been awful as well. <br /><br />Whereas Oakland got unbeleiveable value for Cahill and Gonzalez (2 pitchers not even close to the pedigree of Lee and CC), reeling in an awesome warchest in Parker, Milone, Norris, Cook (already an All-Star) and has totally built a contender in a very short amount of time. All this to say that while I do totally acknowledge the disparity of the "haves and have nots" in MLB and the whole "windows of contention" idea, teams like Oakland remind us that you can succeed without a "window of Contention" behind the merits of your front office and prudent decision making.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11663077750759819578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-23042441044480889602012-08-01T14:29:09.606-04:002012-08-01T14:29:09.606-04:001. Reviewing the front office is something else th...1. Reviewing the front office is something else that needs to be done this winter. Repeating an earlier comment "Lowe, Hafner, Sizemore, Kotchman and Slowey absorb nearly $29 million in salary in 2012. That's a below replacement level pitcher, a part time DH, a full time IR player, a below replacement level first baseman and a minor league pitcher." These decisions didn't work out for us.<br /><br />2. We'll have at least four 25 man roster spots available to players not now on the team in the winter (Hafner, Kotchman, Damon and Lowe), and some money to spend. I'd rather spend money on a pitcher first.<br /><br />3. If the right offer comes along, trade Choo obviously. What's the right offer? The Indians seem interested only if there are at least two players coming back who can help the major league team right away, one of whom is a starter, and are under team control for at least two seasons.MTFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14410882434875111748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11805401.post-728268853225153942012-08-01T12:59:22.585-04:002012-08-01T12:59:22.585-04:00Release LOWE and DAMON immediately.
Bring up JEANM...Release LOWE and DAMON immediately.<br />Bring up JEANMAR and LaPORTA.<br /><br />Down the road give PRONK his walking papers, let ANDERSON play first and SANTANA DH with MARSON catching.<br /><br />Marson is hitting better than half the team, including Santana. As much as you like to rip on LaPorta, he hit .247 with 11 HRs and 53 RBI last year in 350 ABs, that's good for middle of the pack on this sorry offensive team. He'll run into enough accidental HRs to make it worth it.<br /><br />And I'm pretty sure Anderson could scuffle along at Kotchman's .220, while getting enough ABs to see what you have in him.Halifaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16712626480683595819noreply@blogger.com