The DiaTribe

First Priority - Indians Ink Kotchman

2012-02-02T21:24:00.003-05:00

With Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena off the market (THE DOLANZ R CHEE…wait, the Indians offered more for Pena than the Rays did?), the Indians added a piece to the 1B picture from the FA pile as Casey Kotchman has signed a 1-year deal with the Tribe for $3M. Though it was thought (probably mostly in Kotchman’s camp) that Kotchman would be in line for a multi-year offer or at least a deal for more than $5M or so after his 2011 season – which represented his best season (by far) to date – the Indians find themselves fortunate to be able to add Kotchman at a reasonable price and on a short-term deal. While some will see this as the “solution” to the 1B issue that the Indians have attempted to address all off-season, it represents something different – a more attractive option.

By that I mean that the addition of Kotchman doesn’t mean that the Indians have found a perfect fit for their needs, in that Kotchman is LH (though I think this is overblown…even if his struggles against LHP are very real) and not RH, probably benefited from some serious luck in 2011, and is probably not even an everyday player for the Tribe in 2012. That said, Kotchman is NOT Matt LaPorta and the Indians have unquestionably upgraded the 2012 roster with Kotchman’s tremendous glove (important with the GB pitchers and two players that are pretty much rookies in the infield) and his ability to hit RHP, all without committing too much in terms of years or dollars.

Don’t take that to mean that Kotchman is a “bad” addition as just yesterday, most of the Friends of the Feather were attempting to rationalize Russ Canzler (and here are more words than have ever or will ever be written about him) as the 2012 1B, but there’s a reason that Kotchman was still available on the FA market and why the Indians were able to get him for “just” $3M. Much of that is something that I addressed a few weeks back when I wrote this:
Casey Kotchman has a .610 OPS vs. LHP since the beginning of his 2009 season and while his .709 OPS vs. LHP last year was the highest of his career, there is a very real concern with Kotchman that his 2011 offensive numbers will represent the outlier as his 2011 production took SUCH a big jump (Kotchman had a LaPortian .717 career OPS coming into the 2011 season with only 49 career HR in 645 games going into last year) perhaps paced by a supernatural BABIP in 2011 that the very real possibility that Kotchman may not be that much of an upgrade over LaPorta throws up enough red flags to fill the sky.

Granted, most of that focuses on Kotchman's offense and not his strong defense, and let’s ignore (for now) that B-Pro’s John Perrotto sent a tweet out a couple of days ago that the “Indians buying Russ Canzler from (the) Rays has a good chance of working better for Tribe than signing Casey Kotchman…Canzler has more upside”. Rather, let me expand on what I only touched on in the piece from a few weeks ago on Kotchman that “his 2011 offensive numbers will represent the outlier” because it was “paced by a supernatural BABIP”.

To expand on that, let’s jump off from a piece that appeared in FanGraphs last August that Kotchman’s 2011 was a result of “luck” and not a new approach or even…yes, his improved vision. If we’re looking at the peripherals for Kotchman’s 2010 season with the Mariners and his 2011 campaign in Tampa, the raw numbers are pretty much the same:
Strikeout rate (K/PA)
2010 - 12.5%
2011 - 11.7%

Walk rate (BB/PA)
2010 - 7.6%
2011 - 8.5%

Ground ball rate (GB/batted balls)
2010 - 55.4%
2011 - 55.8%

Line drive rate (LD/batted balls)
2010 - 17.5%
2011 - 18.3%

Home Run rate (HR/fly balls)
2010 - 9.2%
2011 - 8.8%

Isolated Patience (OBP – AVG)
2010 - .063
2011 - .072

Isolated Slugging (SLG-AVG)
2010 - .119
2011 - .116

Essentially the same guy, right?
Sure, he walked a little bit more and struck out less, but he had less power in 2011 than he did in 2010 and if Kotchman’s vision was THAT much better in 2011, shouldn’t some of that bear out over the course of 500 plate appearances?

Maybe that’s just me being snarky, as is the suggestion that the batted balls could have been the ones with improved vision, because there was one major difference between Kotchman’s last two seasons…
BABIP
2010 - .229
2011 - .355

What did that difference in BABIP (largely a by-product of simple luck) mean to Kotchman’s lines for the two years?
2010 – .217 BA / .280 OBP / .336 SLG / .616 OPS / .270 wOBA
2011 - .306 BA / .378 OBP / .422 SLG / .800 OPS / .351 wOBA

Starting to see why Casey Kotchman was still a man without a contract as most of his peripherals remained the same as they were in a 2010 season, after which he settled for a minor-league deal in Tampa?
Again, that’s not to say that Kotchman does not add some much-needed depth at 1B or that finding a glove-first 1B isn’t a great idea, particularly with a GB-heavy staff and some youngsters around the infield…but let’s just put it out there that Bill James projects Matt LaPorta to have better offensive numbers in 2012 than Kotchman. Granted, some of that is based on Kotchman’s well-documented struggles against LHP (.245 BA / .305 OBP / .305 OBP / .610 OPS in his last 367 AB vs. LHP), which likely means that the Indians are going to incorporate some sort of convoluted platoon for Kotchman and Santana at 1B, with Marson catching against LHP.

That’s an arrangement that’s been alluded to for some time now, but the addition of Kotchman seems to confirm that the Indians will be shuttling The Axe Man up and down the 1B line depending on the pitcher. If you look at it in that manner, with Kotchman being a slick-fielding 1B who will play against RHP (.760 OPS vs. RHP in the last 3 years, .838 OPS vs. RHP in 2011) and serve as a late-inning defensive replacement, the addition makes a ton of sense. The other options on the roster for that role (prior to the Kotchman addition) consisted of an odd amalgamation of Hannahan (defense) or giving Duncan or LaPorta long looks at 1B. Looking at it that way, $3M to add Kotchman upgrades the Indians, simply by removing those options from the front-burner.

In that sense, Kotchman coming to Cleveland is something that isn’t going to generate a lot of vitriol…but it also shouldn’t generate any kind of true excitement as Kotchman represents an upgrade over the internal options and not much more than that. It’s a solid addition that improves the 2012 Tribe, if only incrementally. The Indians needed to add a 1B that improved the team and they did. It may not be a division-altering move or an addition that tilts the division in their favor, but those moves are costing about $214M these days.

Epicenter: Detroit

2012-01-27T20:00:00.004-05:00

After Al Pujols spread his Cardinal wings and flew West for summers for the next decade, conventional wisdom seemed to dictate that Prince Fielder, the other FA 1B prize this off-season, would find no shortage of suitors as the Marlins and the Cardinals (among others) were connected to Pujols at one time or another. With Fielder four years younger (at least) than Pujols, it seemed that he would find a home in short order, even if his deal wouldn’t match that of Pujols in terms of years or dollars. However, as days turned into weeks and weeks threatened to turn into months, the Marlins found other uses for their dollars and the Cubs passed on acquiring the Prince. The Rangers hemmed and hawed and the Blue Jays always remained on the periphery as most anticipated Fielder ending up in our nation’s capital, if for no other reason than the fact that Scott Boras (Fielder’s agent) had recently made a number of deals with the Nationals and that Boras would somehow convince the Nats that nine or ten years for Fielder would not burden the franchise the way that the contract of another Boras agent – Jayson Werth – seems destined to.

In Cleveland, the pursuit of Fielder was compelling from the standpoint of the idea that the Indians certainly looked to be interested in adding a 1B, but the market for 1B had stagnated with Prince still on the market. Obviously this is all background information to the events that took place over the last two weeks as news broke from Motown that Victor Martinez had been lost for the season as the window seemed to be opening a bit for the Indians, even if the idea that the Tigers might swoop in and ink a Carlos Pena on a 1-year deal to make up for the loss of Victor started to marinate. While some floated the idea out there that Fielder could perhaps be a short-term fix for the Tigers, that idea was put to rest by Detroit’s GM Dave Dombrowski, who said that Fielder was “not a good fit” for the Tigers.

Of course, we all know what happened next as Prince landed in Detroit (the result of an ongoing relationship between Boras and an organization…just not the Nationals) in a seismic move (must…avoid…weight…joke) that sent shockwaves through the AL Central, with the effect certainly being felt in Cleveland.

Though we’ll certainly get to the effect that the deal has for the Indians, in terms of the 9-year, $214M deal that sent Fielder back to the city where his estranged father made himself famous (although the “best” Tigers’ team that Cecil played for won 85 games, despite the elder Fielder’s slugging prowess in Detroit), the move has been nearly universally panned from a long-term perspective by the cognoscenti around the game from Cliff Corcoran’s piece at SI that the Tigers were “unwise” to ink Prince to Craig Calcaterra’s “All Kinds of Crazy” article that asks many of the pertinent questions when it comes to this deal. Now, it is worth mentioning that most of the harrumphs about this deal from a national perspective focus on the length of the deal, the…um, shape of Prince’s body and the Tigers’ logjam when Victor returns in 2013. Corcoran’s piece goes in-depth into all of this as he concludes that, “all of which makes a nine-year investment in Prince Fielder problematic at any dollar amount”.

Truthfully, I don’t think anyone’s debating that this is going to be an odd amalgamation of players whose best position will all probably eventually be DH in Prince, Miggy, and Vic once Vic returns in 2013. But since the focus of the Indians’ near-term future came into sharper focus with the Ubaldo deal, let’s keep this about 2012 when…um, this isn’t all that problematic for the Motor City Kitties as Fielder and Miggy will sit in the middle of their lineup with Prince making up for the loss of Victor and then some (at least offensively) for the 2012 season. While those not writing the checks to Fielder can talk all day about how the Tigers will rue this deal (eventually) and how Detroit was the destination that perhaps made the least sense (particularly on a long term deal like this), let’s not overlook the fact that Fielder is an elite player and, concerns about his body type considered, he’s missed a TOTAL of 12 games since the beginning of the 2006 season.

What can’t be dismissed in the deal (other than the length) is the effect that it will have on the Tigers’ defensive alignment, particularly with the news that Miggy will be the full-time 3B which should present some “interesting” moments, especially if you consider that the Tigers are committed to Jhonny’s Peraltian stylings at SS, now adding Prince’s lack of range at 1B to and infield for a team that has 3 starting pitchers (Porcello, Penny, Fister) in the top 14 among AL starters in terms of GB rates. While some will attempt to categorize exactly how bad the Tigers’ defense could be with defensive metrics that I don’t trust, please don’t take this to mean that the presumed defensive struggles of the 2012 are going to push them to the AL Central cellar as the reality is that they’re going to hit their way out of many of the problems (and you can include Delmon Young’s continued butchery in LF in there) that their defense may present. That said, it’s not something that can be overlooked in the whole situation as Indians’ fans are far too familiar with how defensive deficiencies at a particular position can frustrate fans and change the tenor and outcome of any number of games.

Of course, they could come to their senses, move one of Fielder or Miggy to DH and limit those defensive concerns in 2012, but that doesn’t change the fact that it remains to be seen how they manage Prince, Miggy, and Victor (particularly with Avila in the fold) in a lineup for 2013 and beyond. But let’s not gaze too far into the future as the Indians stand at the precipice of the 2012 season and the question becomes what the Fielder signing for Detroit means for the Tribe…this year.

Well, there has already been the requisite wailing and gnashing of teeth as most cle.commers have handed the Tigers the 2012 AL Central crown and while I don’t think that the wailing and gnashing is necessarily an irrational response – particularly that when Victor was lost for the 2012 season, the window seemed to creep open a little more – it is certainly premature to throw up one’s hands and concede the division based on this signing. Of course, the Fielder signing for Detroit as a wildly aggressive reaction to a hole in their lineup stands out in stark contrast to the Indians, who have been “targeting” a 1B or OF all off-season, with Aaron Cunningham and a batch of NRI’s (though I do like the signings of Spilborghs and Wheeler) to show for what they’ve added from outside the organization, offensively-speaking. To this point, the Indians stood pat as perhaps they were waiting for Prince to sign to shake out the 1B market, assuming that he was heading to Arlington or the nation’s capital, with some other 1B becoming available as a result or waiting for a Pena, Kotchman, or Lee to come to them after Fielder find a home.

Of course, the events leading up to the Fielder signing are about the worst-case scenario (particularly as Fielder was added to the team that was already assumed to be the AL Central front-runner) for the Tribe and one can’t help but see the unfortunate timing of the Carmona/Hernandez Heredia situation in terms of money that could actually be available to spend. By that I mean that with FC/RHH on the restricted list and with no guarantee that he’s even going to make it back to the US this season (and how long it will take him to get back into game shape should not be discounted in terms of a timeframe), the Indians could ostensibly have about $7M that they had set aside for FC/RHH that could be spent elsewhere. In a cruel turn of events, Carlos Pena signed a one-year deal for $7.25M with the Rays JUST before the FC/RHH situation happened. Now, maybe Pena wasn’t coming to Cleveland regardless of what the Indians offered (and certainly Prince was never coming here), but the Indians are now not only back to square one in terms of still looking to add a 1B, but now they’re forced to do it without Pena on the market and with their chief rival unquestionably improving their 2012 chances by guaranteeing $214M to Fielder.

Now, in the talk of how this affects the Indians, let’s not discount how big of a risk the Tigers are taking here on Fielder as the dollars associated in this deal are HUGE, as passed along by Maury Brown in the middle of a piece at B-Pro:
To place the Fielder deal in perspective, the nine-year, $214 million contract ranks him behind only A-Rod (twice, 2001-10 at $252 million and 2008-17 at $275 million) and Pujols (10-year,$240 million base salary) in terms of total dollars. For first baseman, Fielder crushes the eight-year, $180 million deal that Mark Teixeira reached in 2009. The average annual value (AAV) on Fielder’s deal ($23.8 million) ranks him behind only the two Rodriguez deals, Cliff Lee’s $24 million AAV (as part of his five-year, $120 million deal that runs 2011-15), and Ryan Howard’s $25 million AAV as part of his five-year, $125 million contract that runs 2012-16.

Having Victor Martinez go down with what is likely a season-ending ACL tear surely played into the deal, as well. According to Jayson Stark, the Tigers will see a significant amount of Martinez’s salary covered by insurance. “Significant” could be as much or little as 50 percent.

For a guy that was unsigned in January, without the “usual suspects” at the negotiating table, Prince did just fine for himself thanks to the largesse of Mr. Ilitch because…you know, “Mike knows his investments. His businesses are successful”.
Or so said Prince’s agent two years ago, talking sweet about his Sugar Daddy, in a piece I’ll link again in case you didn’t read it the first time…

Certainly, Ilitch’s role in this signing cannot be discounted as his “ability” to lose money or at least the stomach for it is something that is unique in MLB (much less sports) as he’s certainly looking to find his way to a WS trophy before he…well, before he dies. Let’s not forget that the Tigers lost $29M in 2010 alone and since Ilitch is worth about $2B (that’s a “B”) on the strength of selling crappy “pizza” at his Little Caesars’ stores and selling the American dream one slot machine pull at a time at the Motor City casino, his desire to bring the WS trophy to Motown is a major factor here. As Kurt Badenhausen of Forbes points out “Ilitch has only two playoff appearances and no World Series titles to show for his 20 years as the owner of the Tigers” and while Badenhausen also notes that the “Tigers don’t have the revenues to support this kind of payroll and still make money”, Ilitch has signed off (and maybe even forced Dombrowski’s hand) on this Fielder signing.

The obvious comparison that most Indians’ fans will go to next (now that ownership has been mentioned) is to continue to blame the Dolans for this signing (and Tom Moore had a great piece on this very topic) and for the Indians’ “insistence” in fiscal responsibility. Without even getting into that (because I’ve weighed in on it enough over the years), let’s not forget that even though Badenhausen writes that the “Tigers don’t have the revenues to support this kind of payroll and still make money”, the Tigers have outdrawn the Indians by 3,690,801 paying customers over the last four seasons (DET – 10,873,112, CLE – 7,182,311 since 2008) and while some of that can certainly be traced to the…um, unhappiness in Cleveland as the Indians tore everything down from July of 2008 to the end of 2009, that is not a small amount…and even with those revenues, the Tigers have lost (and figure to continue to lose) money.

Obviously, most baseball fans don’t care about owners that are millionaires or billionaires losing money for their entertainment, but perhaps more important than the Tigers averaging about 900K more than the Indians at the turnstiles over the last four years is the fact that Detroit has 4.3M people in their Metro market (12th largest in the US) while Cleveland has 2.07M people in their Metro market (28th largest…and there are still about 2.4M people in the CSA around Detroit as there are in the CSA around Cleveland) so we’re not really talking apples to apples here as much as people would like to assume that Detroit and Cleveland are similar in terms of recent economic trouble. While many would like to lump Detroit and Cleveland in the same “small-to-mid-market” pile (and remember how TV money and the number of TV sets in a media market is going to continue to change this game), it really isn’t a legitimate comparison, particularly when the Tigers are now operating under the deal that they signed with Fox Sports that pays them $40M a year. That may not be Angels/Rangers TV money, but that certainly plays a role here..

Regardless of what the personal finances of these owners are and how the market size affects payrolls and revenues, let’s go back to the question that becomes relevant in this space, specifically “what do the Indians do now?”
Is Casey Kotchman, warts and all, in the offing on a 1-year deal?

Or if an trade is the manner in which the Indians make an addition (and there’s still no guarantee that they even will) and even a trade where additional payroll is added, is the money that is/was owed “Carmona” possibly in play here as it doesn’t look like he’s coming stateside anytime soon?

Do they get more aggressive in terms of a trade as serial poster MTF suggested in making a move for a similarly impactful bat like Kevin Youkilis (under control for 2012 for $12M with a $13M option for 2013), even if it costs them a player like Asdrubal Cabrera to net that impact bat?

Unfortunately (as usual), there are more questions than answers at this point and while some are quick to equate the Fielder signing to another AL Central crown in Motown, we all know that games aren’t played on paper (or in January) and that the WS trophy bestowed upon the Red Sox this time last year never actually made it’s way to Yawkey Way. It would be foolish to assume that the Tigers will just run away with the division the way that the 1995 Tribe team did, as I can’t remember a more top-heavy team (pun intended) in recent memory and the last time the Indians had a couple of “stars” on the team heading into the season was 2008, when CC was supposed to front the rotation and Sizemore, Hafner, and Vic were supposed to make the offensive engine purr. Lest you forget, CC posted a 7.88 ERA in the month of April that year and Vic and Hafner played a combined 18 games together with Ben Francisco batting 3rd for the team in early June, a spot in the lineup that he would actually occupy for a solid two months.

That said, the sledding for the 2012 AL Central crown just got more treacherous for the Indians and while things happen in a baseball season that change the course of a team or teams, the Tigers certainly made the needle on the Richter scale move with the Fielder signing. Unfortunately for Tribe fans, “things” also happen in the off-season that alter the direction of a franchise and between the two top teams in the AL Central heading into the season, Detroit’s move has caused cracks and fissures in the idea that the Indians will be able to keep pace with the Tigers, much less overtake them.

The Tangled Web

2012-01-24T19:45:00.000-05:00

Last Thursday began the way that most days have begun in my house in the past few months, with my now-2-year-old waking up around 6 AM and proceeding to wake up the rest of the house, eventually prodding his parents into beginning their preparations for work and for the day. With the kids fed and bundled, they were taken over to the babysitter’s house so my wife and I could begin our work days, which we concluded in the early afternoon as we had plans to go to Milwaukee for a long weekend with the in-laws. After returning from work, we loaded up the car, picked up the kids and proceeded west on I-80/I-90 with the kids entertained in the back by Cars 2, then The Music Man and with their parents in the front, talking about kindergarten options for the oldest next year while their iTunes account provided the background noise.

Just so you don’t think that I’ve completely lost it, it was during this trip that the whole Carmona/Hernandez Heredia thing broke, so imagine my surprise after driving for 7 hours with 3 kids in a car on a random January night…but I’ll get to this #55 thing if you allow me this early digression.

Anywho, upon arrival to Milwaukee, we enjoyed a weekend with the grandparents in the way that we always do during Wisconsin winter weekends - with trips to libraries and museums, a day of sledding, enjoying meals with extended families, and with the evenings usually ending with a group of us sitting around the fireplace or at the card table with some drinks. Yesterday, we made our way back home in the warm cocoon of the Family Truckster as rain and snow fell in Illinois and Indiana, eventually arriving to our house on the North Coast, attempting to get back into everyday life after some time away as well as sliding back into our professions that allow us to live in the manner that we have become accustomed to, even if we are probably not thankful enough for the life that we have grown into.

This is not meant to bore you with the minutiae of a largely uneventful weekend away for a couple of 30-somethings and their three kids in the Midwest, but rather to serve as a sort of introduction to point out that even about 4 days after this news broke that the Fausto Carmona that we’ve watched for the better part of 6 years is a man not named Fausto Carmona, I have no idea what to think about this false identity story as I simply lack the context (or even the capability to assume context) to understand the decision that was made by a 20-year-old Roberto Hernandez Heredia some eleven years ago in the Dominican Republic.

Fortunate enough to be born where I have been born, when I have been born, with the ability to create the life that I now find myself living, to even attempt to walk a mile in the shoes of that 20-year-old in the Dominican Republic is simply something that I cannot begin to imagine. If these words are meeting your eyes via a PC or a laptop or a Smartphone or a tablet, it’s possible that the decision that was made by a tall, skinny, RH pitcher may not something that you’re able to properly evaluate either as the world that Hernandez Heredia occupied prior to that decision is one that most of us have probably only seen on TV, in pictures, or perhaps during a brief taxi ride from an airport to an all-inclusive resort during a honeymoon. Obviously, the impetus for that decision – to escape his situation in the Dominican Republic through the betterment of his life as the money of MLB could allow – is just the jumping off point for this, but it’s one that I don’t think has received enough attention as the disparities between the lives of most of us and what was staring Hernandez Heredia in the face as a 20-year-old unable to get the attention of MLB scouts is something that cannot be underestimated.

Perhaps I shouldn’t speak for anyone else, but to attempt to understand the enormity of this situation is to begin with the idea that eleven years ago, a 20-year-old Dominican named Roberto Hernandez Heredia decided to assume the identity of a man three years his junior named Fausto Carmona, earning the rapt attention of scouts - under the impression that Hernandez Heredia was now 17 years old, not 20 years old, which would have caused scouts to likely ignore him because of that 3-year difference – eventually making his way into the Cleveland Indians’ organization, beginning a meteoric rise through the Minor Leagues, ending up in Cleveland as a fireballing RH pitcher at the tender age of 22...or so we thought.

Did Roberto Hernandez Heredia break the law by assuming the identity of a man named Fausto Carmona?
Absolutely...and there’s no question that there are some prominent ethical issues that fill this story in terms of assuming another man’s identity, paying that man “hush money” to keep quiet about the falsehood, and continuing to live that lie on a stage as big as MLB, signing contracts and seeing jerseys sold with another man’s name and your number in Team Shops across Ohio.

However, what compelled Hernandez Heredia to make those decisions should not and cannot be glossed over in the telling of this story as his “shedding” of three calendar years in one fell swoop certainly put a foot in his MLB door and, while that foot didn’t technically belong to him, he was the one that kicked it down by virtue of his talent as the opportunity has been there for countless young players, with Hernandez Heredia using the opportunity that was presented to him (even if under false pretenses) was used to catapult him into what is now a 6-year MLB career with nearly 935 MLB innings under his belt. Certainly, his “age” afforded his opportunities along the way that they wouldn’t normally have (his rookie season wouldn’t have provided the optimism it did if people knew he was 25 years old and not the 22 that he was reported to be), but ultimately #55 thrived in MLB (albeit intermittently) and whether he was Fausto Carmona or Roberto Hernandez Heredia, he is still the player that finished 4th in the Cy Young voting and authored one of the best games that I’ve ever seen against the Yankees in the ALDS as midges could not affect his gaze that has been so out of focus ever since.

If Roberto Hernandez Heredia had not lied about his age, would the opportunities he “enjoyed” have been put in front of him?
Maybe though probably not, and while some can pontificate from their towers built on 140 characters or less that the Indians should void his contract and cut ties with him based on his duplicity, don’t think that the ability to have those opportunities didn’t play a major role in the decision to assume a new identity AND to pay hush money to keep that information concealed for eleven years now. Ultimately, the person who was pitching all these years for the Indians is the one that earned the salary that has been meted out to him even if the initial opportunity and the idea that he was as old as he said he was played a role in how long his leash has been as well as the long-term contract that he signed.

Certainly it’s unlikely that the Indians would have approached him about that long-term deal that they did when they did if his true age was known, but let’s be real about this as he’s been paid just over $elevenM over the last two years (4.47 ERA, 399 IP) and has cashed paychecks totaling $15,157,000 in his career. That’s certainly not a paltry sum, but let’s remember that Derek Lowe (4.52 ERA, 380 2/3 IP in the last 2 years) will be paid $15,000,000 this year alone by the Indians and the Braves. For a 20-year-old Dominican, the opportunity to earn that generational-altering wealth would be a dream come true…one that Roberto Hernandez Heredia realized, just not without deception and with a whole tangled web of lies that eventually ensnared him.

There are many emotions from a fan’s perspective (as well as that of just a human perspective) in this – sadness, confusion, anger, doubt, and more – but it certainly calls into question how most of us can even relate to the decision that was made by #55 those many years ago. Playing a major role for me in formulating a rational reaction to this has been the fact that for the last couple of years, I’ve made a concerted effort to divorce myself from getting too attached to these players – call it attempting to root for the name on the front of the jersey and not the back – but there are a few players that have tested this effort. Most of those “personal” connections have ended in disappointment in recent years, from watching the bodies of Sizemore and Hafner wilt when prolonged success seemed imminent for both or enduring the sight of Victor weeping at his locker, I’ve rooted for these guys and wanted them to succeed not just because they wore the laundry that I rooted for but because they represented something that I did not grow up with as a child of the mid-to-late-1980’s – legitimately elite MLB talent that figured to be in Cleveland for a while. Similarly to the soft spot that I have in my heart for those players, Fausto always held a special place for me…maybe it was because of that midge game or because he famously pounded on Sheffield’s head, but there was a part of me that hitched my dream wagon to his star and always hoped (probably against logic) that Fausto v.2007 was someday going to magically return after his star began to fade.

Today, that idea that he’ll ever return to a level of effectiveness for the Indians looks even more foolish than it did when he was sent to the deep Minors to be re-built or when he would deconstruct before our very eyes – a combination of prolific amounts of sweat and jangly nerves – every so often in the past few years. For all of those seasons that we would assert that the year would depend on whether “which Fausto” would show up, the idea that a “Good Fausto” and “Bad Fausto” existed and were constantly at war with each other seems almost too prophetic. Here he was, living this lie, trying to keep it all together while attempting to keep the lid down on a Pandora’s Box that must have ready to burst after that 2007 season, after that ALDS game, after his big contract, and (most recently) after the Indians picked up that $7M option for the 2012 season.

For years, we would read about Fausto going to the Dominican Republic in the off-season to “work on his farm” and keep a low-profile, but now we know what #55 was really trying to do – to wake up one more day living in his castle built on sand instead of seeing it crumble around him.

Now, it has collapsed for him and there are very serious questions about what the future holds for Carmona/Hernandez Heredia in terms of securing a visa to even re-gain entry into the US and as the Indians have already moved towards ostensibly replacing him with Kevin Slowey in what is only the most recent move that the Indians have made that was directly affected by the man who was thought to be Fausto. By that I mean, it’s hard not to see how that one decision in the Dominican Republic in 2000 has affected the decisions made by the Indians since Carmona’s breakout 2007 season, from assuming that they could rely on Carmona after that 2007 season (“sure CC, we don’t need you all that much anymore…we have a 23-year-old Fausto to front the rotation”), or the hopes that he could right himself year after year as the Indians didn’t pursue more pitching because of the idea that a 25-year-old or 26-year-old or 27-year-old player could right his ship.

Whether #55 will ever be donned again at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario by Carmona/Hernandez Heredia remains to be seen as the Indians’ acquisition of Slowey (and…um, they can stop the whole “we thought of getting him before this Fausto” notion unless they started talking to the Rockies when they found out about it, which could have been as long as 3 weeks ago, which is when Hernandez Heredia was outed in the DR, with the Indians probably having somebody on the island who would know that) certainly could lead one to the assumption that the Indians aren’t counting on Hernandez Heredia to be toeing the rubber for them this year, as the Tribe would ostensibly attempt to survive with some combination of Slowey, Barnes, Gomez, McAllister, Huff, and others to hold down the #5 spot in the rotation.

Among those names, the newly-acquired Slowey is certainly the most interesting (and the fact that he has an option and could perhaps be under the Tribe’s control for 3 more seasons if he spends about 2 months in the Minors this year) as he’s always been a pitch-to-contact hitter who had fallen out of favor in Minnesota. He’s not going to walk hitters and he’s not going to strike too many hitters out, but he’ll operate in that Josh Tomlin world where we watch a lot of fly balls go into the air with bated breath but will do so efficiently. Giving up a young player like Zach Putnam is difficult to see in terms of the idea that Putnam looked like a player on the precipice of getting a serious shot at contributing to the MLB bullpen for the next couple of years, but if the Indians can squeeze some back-end-of-the-rotation innings out of Slowey, it’s certainly worth a young, unproven reliever for a team that’s teeming with relievers up and down the farm and is short on legitimate MLB starting options to start 2012…thanks in part to this fiasco with #55.

According to the team, the Indians have apparently been interested in Slowey for a while (he has a career ERA+ of 90 in 532 2/3 IP) and it’s possible that Slowey needed a change of pace from the “Minnesota Way” and will take this newfound opportunity and run with it by asserting himself into the back-end-of-the-rotation. It’s not like the other “competitors” for that 5th spot have picked it up and run away with it and some combination of Slowey and a guy like Scott Barnes intrigues me far more at this point than to see another combined 80 IP from Jeanmar and Huff for the 3rd straight season. Of course, it should be mentioned that despite the early season success of Josh Tomlin, there is a very real possibility that Tomlin struggles in 2012 the way that he did down the stretch in 20eleven, meaning that one of Tomlin’s options could be used in the upcoming season, making the addition of Slowey all that more important in terms of throwing another arm on the pile to fill out the rotation. Regardless of how those arms at the back-end-of-the-rotation sort themselves out, the idea that those players (or someone like Slowey) would get extended looks this season has bubbled to the surface as the Indians attempt to pick themselves up off of the floor after this whole Carmona/Hernandez Heredia episode.

Perhaps that’s why analyzing these guys for a rotation spot feels so odd, as (despite the faults of #55…and there have been many) Carmona/Hernandez Heredia has been an assumed starter for this team since he broke out in 2007. Obviously, his opportunity to break out came about because of false pretenses and falsehoods and he now finds himself attempting to put the cork back in the bottle as the ocean of lies that he’s perpetuated over the last eleven years consumes his life.

Despite this, the inescapable feeling that I have in all of this is sadness – sadness at what that 20-year-old must have been feeling those many years ago as he attempted to “bargain” his way out of poverty (and the fact that his new name was “Fausto” is surreal), sadness at watching a man caught up in the success that he earned through duplicitous desperation, and sadness at knowing that a player that we’ve rooted for as he rode the roller coaster of the last few years has possibly reached the end of his MLB ride.

Ultimately, there is an inherent sadness in the reality that the baseball player that we have known as Fausto Carmona is no more and Roberto Hernandez Heredia will never be the man that he once dreamed of becoming as the lies of one man have caught up with him in a swirling mess, thrown him off course in a way that those midges were never able to, and now threatens to engulf him.

1st and (Still) Foremost

2012-01-10T12:32:00.009-05:00

The new year is upon us and since things have been quiet on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, there hasn’t been too much to ruminate on pertaining to the Indians as they are only so many times that one can read (or write) about the 1B situation, breathlessly follow 140 character proclamations that “the #indians are in on…”, or dissect the current roster much more. However, seeing as how there seems to be some movement on how the Indians are approaching their 1B…um, “situation”, I figured it would be as good a time as any to weigh in on what’s been happening (or what could be in the works) with YOUR Cleveland Indians.

While nearly all of the focus for the Indians since the Sizemore deal has centered on adding a bat (preferably RH…preferably one that can play 1B or LF or both), here we are in mid-January and the situation has remained almost completely unchanged since the end of the 2011 season. Yes, Aaron Cunningham has entered the fray (though saying that his presence “changes” the situation is a bit of a stretch) and the Indians have been “in” on Josh Willingham and Carlos Beltran, but with about 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report, the Indians are looking at a 1B and LF situation that pretty much resembles the one on the North Coast a few months ago. Though the contracts meted out to Jason Kubel and Coco Crisp (both got 2 years and $7M or more annually) make the Josh Willingham deal with the Twins that much more palatable and adding another OF because of the injury concerns regarding Grady still seems like a prudent idea(and count me as still intrigued by Marlon Byrd, particularly now that the Cubs have added David DeJesus and Reed Johnson and are obviously building for another day), the obvious hole that has existed since Matt LaPorta proved to be Matt MaTola and continues to exist is at 1B, where the alignment of internal options that may factor into 1B is getting some new attention.

Of course, this new “attention” is merely a resurrected line of thinking out there regarding the Indians’ 1B situation (as it’s an idea that AC posted on his blog a few months ago), but it does come via Pluto’s Sunday notes, which means that it does come from the Indians. It started last weekend as Pluto passed along (and remember, his Sunday notes come from what the Tribe is telling him) that “the Indians would like to do something about a first baseman. They appear committed to Carlos Santana against lefties, with Lou Marson catching. When a right-hander is on the mound, Santana will catch. No commitment has been made to Matt LaPorta.”

And with that (and as Matt LaPorta started perusing Columbus apartments on Craiglist), the seed of an idea that Santana could be shuffling up and down the 1B line in 2012 and that a full-time 1B may not be coming was re-planted as Marson catching against LHP meant that the Indians would essentially be looking for a 1B to face RHP, when Santana would be catching. Starting off, this makes loads of sense from the Marson vs. LHP perspective as Marson has a .763 career OPS vs. LHP and a .529 career OPS vs. RHP. In fact, Marson’s .793 OPS vs. LHP in 2011 ranked him 3rd on the Tribe against LHP among players with more than 90 AB against LHP (Santana and Hannahan were higher), so if Marson’s production at the plate against LHP goes along with his defensive prowess to justify his inclusion in the lineup against LHP…I’m all for it.

However, as noted above, the player that posted the highest OPS vs. LHP on the Indians last year was one Carlos Santana, so The Axe Man obviously is a big part of the equation vs. LHP, begging the question whether Marson being behind the dish vs. LHP pushes Santana down to 1B line against LHP or perhaps if a better utilization of roster management exists. By that I meant that everyone seems to be content to simply move Santana down to 1B on a part-time basis, but what about moving him into the DH spot vs. LHP since Hafner had a .638 OPS vs. LHP in 2011 (2nd lowest among Indians with more than 100 AB in 2011 vs. LHP) to essentially maximize both Marson AND Hafner’s effectiveness in 2012?

Truthfully, that’s the way I would handle the Marson/Santana “platoon”, by using this alignment for that duo and Hafner, dependent upon the starting pitcher:
Vs. LHP
C – Marson
DH – Santana

Vs. RHP
C – Santana
DH– Hafner

Is it ideal to have a $13M a year platoon player in Hafner?
Of course not, but as disparate as Marson’s splits have been the last couple of years, check these…
Hafner Splits 2011
.886 OPS vs. RHP
.638 OPS vs. LHP

Hafner Splits 2010
.863 OPS vs. RHP
.706 OPS vs. LHP

Hafner Splits 2009
.866 OPS vs. RHP
.696 OPS vs. LHP

If you’re saying that those numbers aren’t THAT bad against LHP, consider that Hafner has 22 XBH in his last 309 PA against LHP and has 5 HR against LHP in his last 219 PA…seriously. That’s not to say that Hafner would become a largely “part-time” player as it is worth mentioning that the average number of AB per team in MLB vs. LHP was 1,470 while the average number of AB per team in MLB vs. RHP was 4,053. So if each team has about 5,500 AB to give out per season, only about ¼ of those AB come against LHP, so Hafner would be more of a ¾-type player which, given the chance that there are only so many swings in Hafner’s shoulder every year, sounds just about right.

While the idea might exist that pushing Santana down to 1B for those 25% of the games against LHP makes more sense, with somebody like Duncan playing the RH DH role, consider that Hafner had the 25th lowest OPS vs. LHP in the AL last year among players with more than 100 PA vs. LHP in 2011. On the Indians, only Mike Brantley was worse on that list, with the 3rd worst Indian on that list being…wait for it…Shelley Duncan, whose .638 OPS vs. LHP ranked him 33rd from the bottom.

And here’s where things get kind of odd in planning out these alignments as one would think that the RH Duncan would have more success vs. LHP to the point that you could suggest a Duncan/Hafner timeshare at DH but strangely enough, the RH Duncan actually hit RHP better than LHP in 2011:
Duncan vs. RHP – 2011
.273 BA / .331 OBP / .587 SLG / .981 OPS in 133 PA

Duncan vs. LHP – 2011
.245 BA / .316 OBP / .363 SLG / .679 OPS in 114 PA

Now if you’re ready for the REALLY weird part in this whole Shelley Duncan split thing, look at what Shelley Duncan’s splits looked like prior to the 2011 season:
Duncan vs. RHP – Prior to 2011
.198 BA / .275 OBP / .357 SLG / .632 OPS in 229 PA

Duncan vs. LHP – Prior to 2011
.261 BA / .337 OBP / .476 SLG / .813 OPS in 187 PA
Certainly, these are all still pretty small sample sizes, but Duncan historically struggled against RHP prior to the 2011 season, when he inexplicably thrived against them, with the opposite being true against LHP prior to and during last season. However, it brings some question to the idea that Duncan represents a suitable “partner” with Hafner at DH, simply by virtue of him being RH. Maybe Duncan reverts back to his pre-2011 performance vs. RHP or maybe his 2011 struggles against RHP are the beginning of a trend, but simply asserting that Hafner can be spelled against RHP is a stance that would be hard to legitimately support.

Truthfully, all this lefty-righty stuff makes my head hurt (and Pluto suggested – in a roundabout sort of way – that Sizemore, Hafner, and Brantley would all sit from time to time against LHP…not that those thoughts aren’t justified, particularly with Brantley, meaning that there’s going to be a lot of lineup fluctuation based on the opposing pitcher), but the idea is essentially put these guys into situations in which they can be most productive and maximize the talent that is on hand.

If you’re fleshing out the C/DH platoon idea, you’d have Santana playing C about 120 games and filling the DH role for 40 games with Marson playing 40 games at C and Hafner getting about 120 sporadic starts at DH to keep him fresh as the season goes along since he played in only 94 games last year, after his 118-game 2010 campaign. To me, that looks like a pretty good solution that doesn’t put Santana at 1B every so often (when his defense is lacking there) and keeps him fresh throughout the season, while resting Hafner to the point that he can (hopefully) remain healthy and effective for an entire season, and utilizing Marson correctly – as a sort of super-backup catcher, who plays against LHP – which again, keeps the Indians’ best offensive player (Santana) rested and hopefully healthy for the season.

Obviously, this situation does nothing about 1B, but if there are concerns about Santana’s ability to play 1B (and there are, particularly with a groundball staff) and the idea is to keep Santana as fresh as due to the wear and tear or the duties of catching because of his offensive potential, perhaps using him in a convoluted platoon for C and DH makes more sense for the Indians to maximize production from Santana for the whole season, but also to put Marson and Hafner in situations that they are most ideally suited for at this point in their careers.

As stated above, this arrangement would still do nothing to fill the still-gaping hole at 1B and would actually deepen the crevasse as the idea that Santana would be an option at 1B would be lessened and the Indians would be left to cobble together some odd amalgamation of Shelley Duncan, Matt MaTola, and (gulp) Mike Brantley at 1B. Of course, here is where the obvious declaration comes that the Indians STILL need to find an everyday 1B comes across again.

To that end, does it strike anyone else as odd with pitchers and catchers reporting about five weeks from now (Tribe P&C report on February 20th) that Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, and Derrek Lee all remain unsigned?

Maybe the flurry of activity is waiting on Prince’s deal (and that looks like it will be in the nation’s capital, perhaps making Adam LaRoche or Chris Marrero an option…but that’s another story), but after Pujols had more than a few suitors, the 1B market has certainly hit a dry patch. With the Cubs acquiring Anthony Rizzo and the Padres netting Yonder Alonso (neither of whom interested me all that much as a 2011 solution, largely because of the bitter LaPortian taste in my mouth regarding top 1B prospects and the idea that Rizzo and Alonso are still just that…prospects), some teams looking for 1B this off-season have moved to get their “1B of the Future”. But that means the options who represent the “1B of the Present” (Fielder, Pena, Kotchman, and Lee) are still basically out there, just with fewer suitors that had a hole that needed to be filled at 1B.

What does that mean for the Indians?
Well, it means that they might be able to essentially wait this out and sign whatever player (not named Prince) is still left standing in this game of Musical Chairs once the music stops or they could target one of Pena, Kotchman, or Lee as soon as Fielder signs to act quickly and add the 1B that is so obviously lacking on this roster, something brought into clearer focus with all of this talk about platooning inferior options (Duncan, Brantley, Donald, etc.) at 1B.

If you’re talking about the trio of Pena, Kotchman, or Lee being feasible additions to the team (and remember that the Beltran “offer” showed that they’re willing to hand out some dollars to the “right” FA this off-season…and none of those guys figures to command a long-term deal at this point), the trio represents an upgrade over what the Indians would be able to have at 1B as it stands now, but that doesn’t mean that each doesn’t come with serious concerns and obvious warts. If you’re looking strictly at 2011 offensive stats, Pena posted the highest OPS (.819) and wOBA (.354), with Kotchman coming in 2nd in both categories (.800 OPS, .351 wOBA), and Lee’s 2011 numbers (.771 OPS, .335 wOBA) being the “worst” among the three, even if they look Pujolsian compared to the Duncan/LaPorta/Donald/Brantley idea. Beyond that, all three have solid defensive reputations, finishing in the Top 12 (Kotchman – 8th, Pena – 9th, Lee – 12th) in John Dewan’s 2011 Fielding Bible voting, something that can certainly not be said for Santana, much less that 4-headed monster that is reportedly being considered to split time there.

So, if we’re talking about offensive prowess, Pena’s 2011 numbers look the best…but that doesn’t mean that Pena does not come with legitimate concerns offensively, with the main concern being voiced by a scout in John Perrotto’s piece at B-Pro called “Best Players Still on the Board”:
Scout’s view: “He can still help someone, but you better have a good right-handed hitter to platoon with him. He’s completely helpless against left-handers now, so you can’t play him 155-160 games anymore. At this stage of his career, he’s a complementary player rather than a major cog in a lineup, and I’d pay him accordingly.”

“Completely helpless against left-handers now”…oof, we already have a couple of those. Unfortunately, what the scout sees bears out in the numbers as Pena posted a .594 OPS vs. LHP in the NL last year, which comes on the heels of a .675 OPS vs. LHP campaign in 2010 for the Rays. In the last 3 years, Pena has a .704 OPS vs. LHP, a number that has trended down since the 2009 campaign. As a quick aside, Hafner’s OPS vs. LHP over that same timeframe (the last 3 years) is .680, so Hafner has actually been less effective than Pena vs. LHP since the beginning of the 2009 season…and since there would only be one Carlos Santana to go around, you’d still be looking for a RH platoon partner for Pena (or Hafner) if a guy like Pena is signed, warts and all.

If you think that Pena’s performance against LHP is underwhelming, realize that Casey Kotchman has a .610 OPS vs. LHP since the beginning of his 2009 season and while his .709 OPS vs. LHP last year was the highest of his career, there is a very real concern with Kotchman that his 2011 offensive numbers will represent the outlier as his 2011 production took SUCH a big jump (Kotchman had a LaPortian .717 career OPS coming into the 2011 season with only 49 career HR in 645 games going into last year) perhaps paced by a supernatural BABIP in 2011 that the very real possibility that Kotchman may not be that much of an upgrade over LaPorta throws up enough red flags to fill the sky.

Thus, if Pena is “completely helpless against left-handers now” and Kotchman could come screeching back to Earth after a solid (though not great) 2011 season in Tampa, would Derrek Lee represent the best option, given that he doesn’t have the HUGE platoon split that Pena and Kotchman do and with his production still relatively steady, if waning?

Maybe that’s damning with faint praise, but Lee is the only one without a DRASTIC platoon split, either in the near or distant past, so he may be more of the “everyday” 1B the Indians so desperately need even if Bastian reports that “Lee’s camp did not return the interest that the Indians showed” early in the FA process. Perhaps that changes as the season draws closer (after all, Lee ended up in Baltimore last year, so minds can be changed) and Lee finds himself on the outside looking in, with the Indians maybe coming into the fray with a one-year deal for Lee that would guarantee him everyday PA at 1B…something he may not be able to find anywhere else.

So what can be made of this 1B situation?
Well, maybe the Indians are looking at a Pena or a Kotchman to play that LH role at 1B (with Santana playing the RH part of the “platoon”) and while that’s far from an ideal situation (as I’d prefer Santana spelling Hafner at DH against LHP), it would still represent a decided upgrade from what’s staring at the Indians as the roster currently stands.

Maybe something happens on the Prince Fielder front that makes another 1B available via trade (though my Gaby Sanchez jersey looks to be gathering mothballs) and maybe the Indians still have a trick up their collective sleeve, but with the 1B market as stagnant as it is right now, with as many players still looking for contracts with fewer opportunities around MLB, and with the Indians reportedly still aggressive in their pursuit of a 1B, I’d be surprised if the Indians actually went to Goodyear with the idea that they’d be able to form a quality 1B out of some twisted amalgamation of Santana, Duncan, LaPorta, and (gulp) Brantley.

Then again, maybe “surprised” isn’t the right word.
Perhaps “disappointed” would be a better fit…

The Curious Case of Mike Brantley

2011-12-26T21:01:00.004-05:00

A Note From Paul: A couple of weeks ago I wrote how I was going to bring a couple of new writers into the fold here at The DiaTribe to change the pace from time to time and I’m pleased to present a piece from my friend Tyler (who has written here before) on Michael Brantley. With all of the talk of the Indians making multi-year offers to Josh Willingham and Carlos Beltran in the last couple of weeks – moves that would ostensibly move Brantley into a quasi-utility role or into a role of the 4th OF, Tyler brings up some salient points on Brantley, regarding both his present and his future.

“When you trade back-to-back Cy Young Award winners (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in back-to-back seasons (2008 and 2009), you need to say more than Michael Brantley is the best player that you have received in return -- and he’s a career .265 hitter (.675 OPS). Brantley is 24 and it’s far too early to write him off, despite a mediocre 2011 (.266, .702 OPS with seven homers and 46 RBI in 496 plate appearances). Of the eight players obtained in those deals, only Brantley is likely to be a starter next season.”

So says Terry Pluto in the Christmas Sunday PD. I think Pluto commits an oversight here -- intentionally or not, he tries to connect dots between Brantley’s slot on the depth chart and the outfielder’s relative success compared to the other players lassoed in the Sabathia and Lee trades. Yes, Brantley was a better hitter than LaPorta, and no, his elbow doesn’t need sewn back together like Carrasco’s. What does that have to do with his playing time?

To be sure, it’s difficult to fault the Indians for trying to will Brantley’s bat to life. About a year ago (forgive me; I can’t pin down the link), Andrew Humphries had a nice Let’s Go Tribe post pointing out that Brantley’s apparent physical talents and sheer outward likability can obscure his failings. As the figment of a lineup card forms in our eggnog-addled brains, though, bear four questions in mind:

1. Is Brantley a center fielder, or even an especially valuable left fielder? I don’t profess any acuity in scouting or reading defensive stats. I’ve watched him for parts of three seasons now, and I still couldn’t tell you whether he’s an asset with the glove. (For what it’s worth, WAR and Zone liked Brantley pretty well in 2011.) If, for example, Brantley had the chops for day-after-day center field, we could live with a .700-ish OPS. Conversely, if Brantley’s relegated to left, we’d have to put his offense under a higher-powered lens. The Indians are talking about giving Brantley reps at first 2012, and they keep acquiring bargain-bin outfielders; based on that evidence, I’ll argue we should reach for the 10x magnifying glass and leave it at that.

2.Is Brantley still fast? Worse yet: Is he a good baserunner? He stole 13 bases last season. He was caught 5 times. As a baserunner, he was, not to put too fine a point on it, both unproductive and inefficient. There are batmen whose lack of power you can abide by virtue of their baserunning. Brantley LOOKS like such a batsman, and we were led to expect same. Are those expectations still justified? He slugged .384 in 2011. Even his much-maligned former Brewer compatriot Matt LaPorta slugged .412. I know, I know -- LaPorta’s an older, slow first baseman who’s supposed to slug .500, context is everything, all that jazz. But the margin for error we accord Brantley is a product of his defense and baserunning, which in turn rely on his speed. Again: Does he still have any?

3. Will Brantley ever be a threat versus left-handed pitching? He collected 68% of his 2011 plate appearances versus right-handers, but those PAs accounted for 100% of his home runs, 100% of his triples, 83% of his doubles, and -- salt in the wound -- 12 of his 13 stolen bases. Brantley’s 2011 line versus southpaws: .214/.282/.243. That level of production ranks somewhere between Columbus and God-awful. I’ll admit that lots of everyday left-handed hitters are glorified platoon players at the plate; for instance, Grady Sizemore’s triumphant 2006 campaign was undistinguished versus lefties. But, then, Sizemore was still a threat to go yard, still a disruptive force on the basepaths, and still a competent up-the-middle defender. In what way will Brantley balance the ledger?

4. Is Brantley robust enough to be a starter? I suppose I ought to have made this No. 1 instead of No. 4. Put simply, “core players” have to stay on the field. Last season, with hardly a soul to compete with him for reps in left and center, at only 23 years old, Brantley still couldn’t crest 500 plate appearances. And this may be only my memory, but his tenure as an Indian, both on and off the 25-man roster, seems shotgunned with injuries and ailments. We might, of course, cut him some slack for this reason; perhaps we’ve just yet to see Brantley running on all eight cylinders. But by the same token, health itself is a skill that professional athletes simply have to master, and to date it is fair to say that Brantley hasn’t.

--

The great counter-point to all of this is Pluto’s -- Brantley turns 25 this May, and has done a good bit of maturing under MLB lights. An organization as starved for position player depth as are the Indians cannot afford to cast aside (ostensibly) toolsy young outfielders.

And yet, consider the Indians’ outfield depth signings this winter. Aaron Cunningham turns 26 next year. Felix Pie will only be 27. Both have pedigrees not dissimilar from Brantley’s, and both have diminished as Major Leaguers, now mere fourth outfielders. Brantley is, as Pluto says, “likely” to be a starter in 2012. I hope he can earn it.

Regarding Risk and Reward

2011-12-20T20:23:00.005-05:00

As the Indians’ off-season rolls on quietly (relatively speaking), the biggest news that has come out of the corner of Carnegie and Ontario is not this stockpiling of RH bats in minor trades (Aaron Cunningham) or NRI (Pie and Lopez with Andy LaRoche perhaps to come) to fill out organizational depth and equate to Travis Buck-esque lottery tickets. Rather, the biggest events of the last couple of weeks pertaining to the Indians have been the signings of Josh Willingham by the Twins and Michael Cuddyer by the Rockies as those two bats seemed to be the ones that most clearly fit the mold (RH LF or RH LF/1B) that the Indians were purportedly targeting this off-season.

So while the hand-wringing has begun over the Felix Pie and Jose Lopez minor league deals and the already-apparent warts of Aaron Cunningham are being put under a microscope, the very real sense is creeping in that the Indians are making plans to begin the 2012 season with the roster essentially as it stands right now. Certainly, a trade could be in the offing (remember, the DeRosa deal was done on New Year’s Eve) and perhaps Antonetti has a trick still up his sleeve, but with Willingham off to the Twin Cities and Cuddyer headed to the thin mountain air, the idea that the Indians will appreciably upgrade this team via FA as essentially vanished.

Now this shouldn’t come as a major surprise as (despite the beat reporters’ INSISTENCE on constantly focusing on the FA market) any major offensive Indians’ addition was (and still is) always likely to come via the trade route. But since the Indians were allegedly in on Willingham and since Cuddyer and Willingham are similarly skilled, similarly aged players that just found their way to destinations other than Cleveland, let’s take a look at the deals that they got, the Indians’ apparent reticence to assume the risk associated with these “long”-term deals, and what it means for 2012.

Starting with Cuddyer and Willingham inking their new deals, they’re both interesting guys as they represent very clearly the inefficiency of augmenting a team via FA with mid-tier players. Both are solid hitters, if flawed players, who would immediately upgrade nearly any team they would have joined (the Indians certainly included) who hit the FA at nearly the exact same age. For their services, the Rockies doled out a 3-year deal worth $31.5M for Cuddyer and the Twins essentially replaced Cuddyer with Willingham, handing out a 3-year, $21M deal for Willingham.

What I find intriguing about the two deals (particularly the Willingham deal for less money) is the idea that both netted 3-year deals, particularly because the Indians were apparently only willing to offer Willingham a 2-year deal, using the convenient excuse of Willingham’s defensive limitations to explain why they weren’t willing to top (or match) the Twins’ offer. The reason that Willingham represented such a compelling option is that he’s been strikingly consistent throughout his career, posting an OBP between .332 and .389 every year, a SLG between .459 and .496 every year for the last six years. Over his career, he’s played in nearly 800 games and he has a .836 OPS and a 121 OPS+. Among players with more than 2,500 PA over the last six years, those numbers put Willingham 38th in OPS+, just below Jayson Werth and above Billy Butler.

Essentially, Willingham has been a good (though not great), consistent hitter throughout his career, even if there are red flags that exist. In terms of those red flags, Willingham had the highest K rate of his career (26.6% this past year) while posting the lowest BB rate (9.9% in 2011) since his rookie year. While those numbers aren’t astonishingly different than what he had done prior to 2011, it is worth noting that his lowest K rate came in 2010, which is the same year he had his 2nd highest BB rate. For a little perspective on that 26.6% K rate in 2011, it was just a tick below what Austin Kearns put forth (27.6% K rate) as an Indian, even if that’s just taking one aspect of hitting and ignoring the rest…with Willingham vastly outpacing the production of some of the Indians’ more notable windmills last year. Maybe that is overanalyzing things a little, but Willingham did have the 7th highest K rate in 2011 among qualified hitters and the fear would be if he’s trending in that direction, given his uptick in strikeouts in 2011.

And these “upticks” and possible “trends” is where some suspicion and doubt starts to creep in, given Willingham’s age and what similar players to Willingham (and Cuddyer) have done through their low-to-mid-30s. For that we go to a mind-blowing snippet put together by Matthew Pouliat at Hardball Talk comparing Cuddyer to similarly-aged players who had posted similar numbers in their age 30-32 seasons, concluding that “Occasionally you’ll get a (Matt) Stairs, but the players here most similar to Cuddyer — (Dante) Bichette, (Ron) Gant and (Kevin) Millar — all turned into borderline regulars at 33-34.” Certainly, this is not the most scientific or exhaustive look at how players age (and Pouliat completely ripped the Cuddyer signing from the start with a piece actually titled “Rockies pick a foolish way to break the bank”), but it is worth noting again that Willingham and Cuddyer are similarly skilled and similarly aged (Cuddyer is one month older), so it comes down to the question of what can legitimately be expected for either player and whether that expected (not past) production justifies the money and years involved…with Matt Stairs being a sort of best-case-scenario.

For teams like the Indians (and actually for most teams), these guys have to be paid for future production, not what they’ve already accomplished and if we move away from what Pouliat thinks can be expected from Cuddyer (and that wasn’t pretty) and move to Willingham, here’s what Rob Neyer had to say on Willingham’s deal with Minnesota:
Of course, Willingham is almost 33 years old and it’s quite possible that we’ve seen his best. I would love to have him for one season, and I would like to have him for two. Three ... well, that might be a season too far.
Or it might not be. If he’s healthy and keeps pulling the ball, he could certainly be worth $21 million over three seasons. Probably will be, now that I think about it.

“If he’s healthy and keeps pulling the ball” is the qualifier there as Willingham has never played more than 144 games in a season and has two seasons in his last six in which he played fewer than 115 games. Perhaps that scares the Indians in terms of the fact that they already have an injury risk in his mid-to-late-30’s (which is weird to write because these guys are my age) in Hafner that’s making hefty money and have plenty of other injury risks up and down the lineup to the point that Willingham’s injury history played a role.

However, the 3-year, $21M deal for the Twins feels like less of a “gamble” than most and looked palatable for the Tribe, particularly with Hafner coming off of the books after this season. Maybe Willingham still would have constituted a “gamble” nonetheless as he’s not the perfect player…but the “perfect player” just signed a 10-year, $275M deal to take his talents to…well, you get the idea.

As I wrote in the off-season “road-map” piece (the one where I put forth the idea that the Indians should sign Cuddyer to a 3-year deal) at the end of the season, “in this Brave New World of MLB, the Indians aren’t going to sit at the table with the Fielder and Pujols to crunch numbers if they’re going to venture out on the FA market and that ‘second-tier’ of players is the top-end of where they realistically get to choose.” That “second-tier” of players on the FA market has and always will be comprised of players like Willingham and Cuddyer – far from sure things that are going to be overpaid by someone in terms of years or dollars (or both) – who represent an imperfect upgrade to a team like the Indians. Though that upgrade may be “imperfect”, the upgrade would still have been significant, given the internal options…which I’ll get to.

Given that adding a Willingham would have unquestionably upgraded the roster and deepened the lineup while removing a marginal player from the everyday conversation, wouldn’t now seem like the time to assume some of the risk of a 3-year deal associated with signing a Willingham?

That is to say, if this is the “window” of contention that was so clearly opened by the Ubaldo trade (and it was), why not add the extra year?

Allegedly, the Indians went out to 2 years with Willingham but stopped short of adding that 3rd year…but was it really just because he wasn’t a defensive fit? The guy could play LF and provide insurance against the Sizemore/Hafner injury that we know is coming and upgraded the lineup for 2012…so why is it that the 3rd year was the dealbreaker?

This stated reticence to include a 3rd year piqued my interest and, while age obviously plays a role here, if we go back to that Pouliat piece that he did on Cuddyer’s “peers” and what they accomplished as Willingham is a month older than Cuddyer, there is decent data that Willingham’s production is going to tail off as he ages, meaning that the Indians would be paying “market value” for the first couple of years of the deal while likely ruing that 3rd year…when that 3rd year arrived.

But this idea of “market value” and the Twins’ inclusion of the 3rd year in the offer intrigued me as it certainly seems that these concessions/risks are what it takes in terms of signing players (even mid-level ones) on the FA market. That is to say that to get a player that is likely to present a significant upgrade (be it a position player or pitcher) is going to be costly on the FA market, with the new team essentially overpaying in terms of dollars or years (or both) to gain the services of the signed player.
With the assumed risk comes the possibility of reward…

This is far from ground-breaking stuff, I know…but (just to keep this with FA position players and, more specifically, OF) want to look at the big FA signings that covered 3 years or more among OF over the last four years?
2010
Carl Crawford – 7 years, $142,000,000
Jayson Werth – 7 years, $126,000,000

2009
Matt Holliday – 7 years, $120,000,000
Jason Bay – 4 years, $66,000,000
Marlon Byrd – 3 years, $15,000,000

2008
Raul Ibanez – 3 years, $31,500,000
Milton Bradley – 3 years, $30,000,000
Juan Rivera – 3 years, $12,750,000

2007
Torii Hunter – 5 years, $90,000,000
Aaron Rowand – 5 years, $60,000,000
Jose Guillen – 3 years, $36,000,000

That’s it…there have been three or fewer OF that have inked deals longer that were 3 years or longer each year in the four years prior to this off-season and not even going back to the absolute abomination that the 2006 list was, which of those deals look good in hindsight?

Holliday (though he hasn’t even played out ½ of that deal) and maybe Hunter or perhaps Ibanez for the first 2 years of that deal, but…oof.
Crawford, Werth, and Bay have been complete disappointments with their new teams to date and Bradley, Rowand, Rivera, and Guillen couldn’t have worn out their welcome any quicker if they tried and it’s possible that Byrd becomes available in this, his final year of his deal (particularly with David DeJesus on the North Side), bringing into clearer focus of how these guys generally don’t justify the length of their deals.

Maybe there’s the rub with these FA deals as the idea is to (quite obviously) pay for future production and not past accomplishments, but even among the OF deemed to be most deserving of long-term deals in the past few years, their “future production” paled in comparison to their past accomplishments.

What does that mean for Willingham going forward?
Well, we’ll get a front row seat as he laces them up in the AL Central to find out, but as much as there is obvious risk in giving a guy like Willingham a 3-year deal (based on Pouliat’s comparables for Cuddyer and the…um, fickle nature of OF who netted FA deals in the past), this is essentially how FA works. A team is going to overpay for the services of a player and while that player’s contract may outlive his usefulness to the team and, given where the Indians are with their current group of players (and this “window”) and the internal options that figure to see expanded roles if this is the end of the additions (save the token lottery tickets and NRI’s), wouldn’t it stand to reason that THIS was the appropriate time for the Indians to overpay for the services of a player?

Maybe that’s talking out of both sides of my mouth (pointing out regressions for players and how long-term FA deals haven’t worked out recently while saying the Indians should be taking this leap) and I’ve been advocating the trade market since the end of the season, but seeing as how there haven’t been compelling names that have moved in other deals (and…yes, I know that Yonder Alonso was traded to San Diego, just as I know that Cord Phelps had a better hitting line in the same AAA league as Alonso), shouldn’t the Indians have recognized this and been more aggressive on the FA market, pitfalls of said FA market (ahem…Jason Kubel’s 2-year deal) considered?

Apparently, there is a line of thinking that what’s out there now is really no better than the Indians’ internal options and namely that Shelley Duncan could play the role of “RH bat”, bouncing around between 1B and LF and providing some insurance for if/when Sizemore and/or Hafner spend some time on the shelf. Maybe that’s true if you’re talking about Coco Crisp or Juan Pierre…but if the idea is that what WAS out there (namely Willingham and Cuddyer) weren’t that much of an upgrade over those internal options (namely Duncan) to justify the risk that would have been assumed by giving either of those players, 3-year deal, I would point out that Shelley Duncan just turned 32 and (if you’ll remember from that Pouliat piece) if solid MLB bats turn into borderline regulars around the age of 32 or 33, what do borderline regulars become?

Let’s not forget what Shelley Duncan’s career line was from the start of his career in 2007 through September 2, 2011:
.234 BA / .308 OBP / .413 SLG / .721 OPS with 23 HR and 24 2B in 582 PA

Of course, we all know that Duncan went on a tear in those last 3 weeks of the season, posting a .981 OPS in his final 87 PA in 24 games, stroking 7 HR in those 24 games. But which player do you think is closer to the real Shelley Duncan…the one that posted a .721 OPS in 205 games to start his career or the one that posted a .981 OPS in his last 24 games of 2011?

Truthfully, Duncan’s career line up to that little hot streak in September isn’t all that dissimilar to what Matt LaPorta did in 2011 (.247 BA / .299 OBP / .412 OBP / .711 OPS), with LaPorta being a full 5 years younger than Duncan and people (present company included) can’t wait to move on from MaTola at 1B, so the idea that Duncan represents something on par with what was/is available on the FA market or via trade makes sense how?

Don’t take this to mean that Duncan is without value as he’s a RH bat that can be used (and here’s the key word) sporadically as a pinch-hitter or occasional starter against a tough LH starting pitcher. A role that is larger for him is akin to simply going back to the idea that LaPorta will become a player that he has not shown to be.

Is this to say that LaPorta is part of the answer for the Indians at 1B in 2012?
Absolutely not, as he’s destined for Columbus…and with good reason. Rather, it’s an attempt at providing some perspective on counting on Shelley Duncan to be any kind of platoon-mate or deserving of more than an occasional start or a stint as a PH for this 2012 team. Essentially, it’s a way to point out that if Duncan is part of a Plan A at 1B or Plan B in the OF if (when) Grady gets hurt…yeah, that’s bad planning on the part of the Indians as a fundamental failure to upgrade from even Shelley Duncan.

Maybe something more is coming or maybe the Indians have found a diamond-in-the-rough in Aaron Cunningham (or Thomas Neal) just as they did a number of years ago with SS Choo, seeing something that another (or in the case of Cunningham, multiple) team(s) did not and will be able to find a long-term solution to an OF that has issues in 2012 and beyond. That’s awfully hard to see with Cunningham’s body of work and regardless of that, if Cunningham (or Neal) does become a find for the Indians, it still doesn’t appreciably upgrade 1B. While I can see the merit in playing Santana more frequently at 1B (here is where The Axe Man ranks in wOBA among “1B” last year), it means that the Indians are going to be playing more of Lou Marson on an everyday basis (and here is where Marson ranked in wOBA among C last year), meaning that while the defense would certainly get a boost with Marson behind the plate, the offense would remain relatively unchanged, or maybe worse.

Ultimately, as Willingham then Cuddyer went off the board and the Indians stocked up on Cunningham and Pie (most notably), the sense that this is what the roster is going to look like on Opening Day began to creep in. While nobody of sound mind believes that Cunningham represented THE RH bat that was being targeted, his addition seemed to signal that they were starting to build depth around the current roster instead of letting parts of the current roster (namely Brantley and Duncan) morph into that depth. That’s a depressing thought as the organization went all in with the Ubaldo deal and while I don’t think that things are going to go screeching off of the cliff when the end of 2013 arrives, the idea that they’ll find that “RH bopper” in July of 2012 means that the lessons of 2006 (when the team was 10 ½ games back on Memorial Day after a promising 2005 season) or 2008 (when a team boasting CC and CP Lee was 11 ½ games back by the 4th of July after the ALCS appearance the year before) haven’t been learned.

In what seems to be the last “winnable” division in the AL (as the Rangers and Angels have become a new “Axis of Evil”), the Indians have the opportunity to take control of the AL Central and their failure to appreciably upgrade a lineup in need of upgrades could be remembered as an opportunity lost, as the inactivity of off-seasons in the past now are. To make those upgrades, the Indians may have to expose themselves to a level of risk that puts them outside of their comfort zone – much in the way that the Ubaldo trade did – but by taking little risk (other than the Grady Gamble), they’re setting themselves up for little reward. Don’t take that as a “JUST DO SOMETHING…ANYTHING” screed as the FA market is obviously flush with dumpsters in which money is deposited and some trade options that have been thrown out there look like Matt LaPorta with a different name, but essentially going into 2012 with the lineup that obviously had holes in 2011 seems risk-averse to the point of paralysis.

Maybe they’re counting on full and fully healthy years from the pieces in place, but if past truly is prologue, having some depth and having some legitimate options beyond what is currently in place should (continue to) be the focus of the off-season. Up to this point, the inability to make additions to the lineup or the decisions to not make certain additions to the lineup look short-sighted and could become regrettable in short order if and when injuries/regressions occur in 2012.

The off-season is far from over and (as I’ve been saying since the end of the season) trade avenues should be explored to the point that nearly no player should be excluded from trade discussions. Perhaps the idea that a bullpen arm could be flipped for something of impact value is further from reality (though Houston’s haul for Mark Melancon was compelling, with the Red Sox allegedly not done looking for relievers), but the Indians have taken risks and been creative on the trade market in the recent past, so the onus certainly seems to be back on that ability to find a hitter via trade before the team departs for Goodyear.

A failure to do so could be an organization-changing decision as the window that feels so recently opened could start shimmying down in a hurry…

Indians Sign Two, Trade One

2011-12-16T19:18:00.004-05:00

The Indians made three minor moves today, signing outfielder Felix Pie and infielder Jose Lopez to minor league deals, and trading last year's Akron Aeros closer Cory Burns to the Padres for outfielder Aaron Cunningham.

Pie was a top prospect when he was coming up through the Cubs organization, peaking at #27 in all of baseball during the 2006 offseason according to Baseball America. That prospect pedigree however, has never really translated to major league success. In 1051 major league at bats, he's hit .249/.298/.374 with 17 HR and 97 RBI. His best season came in 2009 with the Orioles when he played in 101 games and put up a .763 OPS. He's a solid but unspectacular defender who can play all three outfield positions, and bats lefthanded. He can earn up to $1 million in incentives if he plays well, and as indicated earlier he was signed to a minor league deal with a spring training invite. It's a low-risk, moderate reward signing that really can't hurt anything, and is typical of what most teams are doing this time of year.

If you like low-risk, moderate reward minor league deals, let me introduce you to Jose Lopez. Unlike Pie, Lopez found some success in the major leagues, being named to the all star team in his first full season back in 2006. He's a righthanded hitter who's shown some pop, hitting a career-high 25 HR in 2009 with Seattle. Between 2006 and 2009, Lopez hit .277/.308/.419 with 63 HR and 326 RBI, all while calling Safeco Field his home park. Pretty solid numbers for a young 2B. However, after 2009, Lopez fell off a cliff. In his next two seasons, split between Seattle, Colorado and Florida, Lopez hit just .233/.263/.348 with 18 HR and 79 RBI. His approach had always been poor, as he sports a career 3/1 K/BB ratio, but gone was the power and average that helped to offset that ratio. Like Pie, he was signed to a minor league deal that will pay him less than $1 million if he hits all of his incentives. He's definitely behind Jason Donald for at bats as a utility guy, and will likely fight with Cord Phelps to be the first infielder called up from Columbus if something goes wrong at the major league level.

The third move the Indians made today was dealing relief pitcher Cory Burns to San Diego for outfielder Aaron Cunningham. My full scouting report on Burns from last offseason can be found here, and he was featured in my Arizona Fall League article above. Long story short; he's a guy with great numbers but who's stuff never matched up with the results. He has a very deceptive motion that fools hitters in the minors, but is never really likely to translate to the major league level. Cunningham is a 25-year old corner outfielder who hits righthanded, and has spent part of the past four years in the majors with Oakland and San Diego. He was originally drafted in the 6th round by the White Sox in 2005, then dealt to Arizona before heading to Oakland as part of the Dan Haren deal. From Oakland he moved on to San Diego in the Kevin Kouzmanoff deal, and now is packing his bags for the North Coast. His career major league numbers, in 355 at bats, are .231/.290/.375 with 6 HR and 44 RBI. He's seen as a 4th OF at least, with the potential to be an everyday guy in one of the corner OF positions. He's still young, but he's out of options so will have to either make the club out of spring training in 2012 or be put on waivers. Even if he ends up on waivers, I like the Indians odds to keep him. There are plenty of teams sneaking plenty of guys through at the end of March. His career minor league line is .306/.379/.490, and he's traditionally hit lefthanded pitching pretty well. He joins the previously mentioned Felix Pie, Zeke Carera, and Thomas Neal as guys who will be fighting for the last OF spot in spring training.

All in all, three solid but unspectacular moves. Again, this is what most of the teams around baseball are doing this time of year...signing low-risk vets in an effort to catch lightining in a bottle. Most of the moves don't amount to much, but it's more than work the time and money invested in these guys in case they turn into something. The national media won't be writing stories about it, ESPN won't break away from the latest Miami Heat scrimmage to report on it, but these are the type of moves that have a chance to pay off in 2012. And if they don't, it sure doesn't hurt much. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I love these deals and that I think one of these guys will be the missing piece to the 2012 playoff run, but to bemoan the deals and cry about the Dolans R cheep, yo, isn't really my style, as I'm sure you're all aware by now.

Arizona Fall League in Review

2011-12-15T18:50:00.002-05:00

The elite Arizona Fall League has come and gone, and my favorite offseason league is once again in the past. The AFL pulls together some of the top prospects from all around baseball, and with the mid-August signing deadline, plenty of 1^st round picks made their professional debuts in the desert. The Indians didn’t send any prospects who will rank in the top-100 in all of baseball to Arizona this year, but did send an interesting group of guys that I was anxious to see perform against some of the top talent in minor league baseball. The Indians prospects were sent down to the desert to compete for the Phoenix Desert Dogs along with players from Oakland, Toronto, Cincinnati and the New York Yankees.

Each team is permitted to designate one of the pitchers they send as a starter. For the Indians, the designated starter was Akron lefty T.J. McFarland. McFarland made two starts in Kinston last year before being promoted to AA Akron in April. On the season, he went 9-10 with a 3.75 ERA. He struck out 115 and walked 51 in his 149 1/3 innings of work. Most importantly, the groundball specialist posted an impressive 2.49 GO/AO ratio. McFarland isn’t a big strikeout guy, but finds success pitching to contact because of his impressive sinker and ability to command it within the strike zone. Arizona has always been known as a hitter’s environment, and I thought there was a chance for a guy like McFarland to struggle down there. Those fears proved to be unfounded, as T.J. went 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his 8 appearances for the Desert Dogs. McFarland threw 28 1/3 innings, striking out 22 and walking 13. His GO/AO ratio was 2.11, and he gave up more than 2 ER in just one of his starts. Overall, it was an impressive showing for the 22-year old McFarland, who has solid MOR potential at the big-league level.

As far as hitters go, the guy I was most excited to see perform in the AFL was Big, Bad Jesus Aguilar. When I last saw Aguilar hit in the dry Arizona air, he launched a couple of home runs in minor league spring training games last year that still haven’t landed. That was against the Reds low-A squad though, so the better pitching of the AFL would challenge him a little more. Or so I thought. Aguilar put up an impressive .339/.458/.610 line in his 59 at bats, popping 3 HR and driving in 9. He did strike out 18 times against 11 walks, but as long as the extra-base power comes along with it, that’s a ratio I can live with. Aguilar hit 23 HR last year in 462 AB between Lake County and Kinston, and really established himself as a guy to keep an eye on. One thing the Indians are short on is power, and Aguilar is one of the few legit power prospects in the organization. A 1.069 OPS against pitching from AA and AAA is a nice sign that the power is real, and will continue to mature in the next couple of years. Aguilar is just 21 and should open 2012 in Carolina, with a good chance to be in Akron by the all-star break.

Those that have read my articles here for a while probably know that when I play baseball, I catch. That being said, I have a soft spot in my heart for all catchers, but especially guys who dedicate themselves to the position defensively. It’s the toughest position on the diamond, and one of the toughest in sports. I tell you this to help explain my affinity for the light-hitting defensive superstar Roberto Perez. Perez caught for Kinston last year, and was the best defensive catcher in the Carolina League. He’s fundamentally sound, controls the other teams running game, and handles pitchers extremely well. Every pitcher in the Indians org I’ve talked to that’s thrown to Perez raves about his defense. The Indians sent him down to Arizona this year to see if that would jump-start his offense, as he hit just .225/.365/.310 with 2 HR and 30 RBI in 284 AB for Kinston in 2011. Some power materialized in the desert for the backstop, as he hit 4 HR in just 53 AB. The rest of his stat line though was pretty typical, as he hit .226/.382/.472. The .854 OPS is impressive, but the .226 AVG is not. One offensive skill Perez has consistently shown is patience at the plate, as he’s never posted an OBP of below .360. That continued in Arizona, as Perez walked 13 times against 10 strikeouts. His upside is probably that of a defense-oriented backup catcher, but he’s still one of my favorite guys in the organization.

As I noted earlier, each organization sending players to the AFL is only allowed to designate one as a starter. Naturally then, there are plenty of relievers sent down to the desert. The most high-profile RP that the Indians sent was Akron closer Cory Burns. Burns posted a 2.11 ERA and nailed down 35 saves for the Aeros last season, striking out 70 and walking just 15 in 59 2/3 innings pitched. Those numbers probably have you picturing a big, imposing fireballer who blows hitters away with his fastball, but Burns is anything but. The 6’1, 180lb righthander gets it done more with deception than with overpowering stuff, as his fastball only touches the low-90’s. Burns has a sidewinding, deceptive delivery that he uses to hide the ball from hitters, which helps him rack up the strikeouts. Burns threw 11 innings of relief for the Desert Dogs this year, giving up 6 earned runs (4.91 ERA), striking out 12 and walking 3. A decent performance, but really too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Another reliever who gets it done more with deception than pure stuff is former Kinston closer Preston Guilmet. Guilmet tied Burns with 35 saves last year, putting up a 2.16 ERA with 60 K and 11 BB in 58 1/3 IP for the K-Tribe. Like Burns, Guilmet’s fastball rarely gets into the 90’s. Also like Burns, he has a deceptive delivery that hides the ball well from the hitter, coming straight over the top with a little hitch in his windup. The arm angle helps make his splitter a true swing and miss offering. Guilmet threw 14 innings in the desert this fall, and got roughed up to the tune of a 6.43 ERA. He had 12 K’s and 11 BB, pitching against some pretty tough hitters. Guilmet did settle down after some early struggles, closing out his AFL campaign with 5 straight scoreless outings, spanning 6 1/3 innings.

The final reliever sent to Arizona had a quietly solid season in 2011. Tyler Sturdevant split his time primarily between Kinston (41 IP) and Akron (30 IP), while making a brief stopover in AAA Columbus as well for 3 2/3 innings. Between all three levels, he went a combined 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA with 82 K and just 19 BB. Sturdevant, who turns 26 on December 20, had a solid campaign in Arizona this fall. He didn’t record a decision out of the bullpen, but did throw 12 innings, giving up just 4 ER while striking out 13 and walking 4. Look for Sturdevant to be part of a crowded Columbus bullpen in 2012, with an outside shot at pitching in Cleveland at some point during the season.

An example of a guy who didn’t have a very good campaign in Arizona is outfielder Chad Huffman. Huffman put up an uninspiring .246/.351/.415 season for AAA Columbus last year, and followed that up with an extremely disappointing .214/.313/.343 line in 70 AB for the Desert Dogs. Huffman hit 6 doubles, one HR and drove in 11. For an experienced guy in a hitter’s league, that’s a pretty poor stat line. Huffman reinforced my view that he’s little more than organizational depth, lurking in Columbus in case of a series of injuries to the guys above him

Two outfielders who are higher on the organizational depth chart got a few at bats in Arizona, but nothing that really lets us draw any kind of conclusions. LF Tim Fedroff had four hits, including a pair of doubles, in just 11 at bats for Phoenix in the beginning of October. Later in the season, RF/CF Carlos Moncrief went 4-23 with a 2B. Neither player really had enough playing time to make their campaign worthwhile.

We’re closing in on Christmas, which means crowded shopping malls, meaningless Browns games and plenty of snow in Cleveland. But there’s light at the end of the tunnel, as it also means that we’re less than two months until pitchers and catchers report to Arizona for Spring Training. The Tribe should be a young, exciting team this year, and with guys like McFarland and Aguilar on the horizon, help is on the way in case options at the big league level happen to falter.

A Lazy Sunday in A Brave New World

2011-12-10T22:23:00.008-05:00

The Winter Meetings have come and gone and while all it may have done is re-affirm our greatest fears about the role that local TV revenue is going to play in the coming decade to further separate big-market, mid-market, and small market teams, the Indians’ brass returned from the North Coast with essentially the same roster that they had when they arrived in the Lone Star State. While calling it “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” for the Tribe may be a little overdramatic, the Indians’ trip to Dallas mainly netted them some airline miles, some hotel points, and (hopefully) some groundwork on some moves to come. Because moves for the Tribe at the Winter Meetings were only hinted at, with Antonetti’s unfortunate comment that a trade proposal that would never be guessed only prompted speculation in all corners when the Indians left Dallas without consummating a deal, either on the FA market or via trade.

That’s not to say that this “unbelievable” trade proposal isn’t something that could still crystallize, but the Indians figured to be quiet at the Winter Meetings and…well, they were. So, the inactivity in Dallas should come as no surprise. Of course, that didn’t prevent all of Cleveland (OK…a small portion of Clevelanders) from watching with bated breath this whole “El Hombre” saga play out as the idea that Pujols-to-Marlins would have meant that mean that Gaby Sanchez could have been made available, something that’s been alluded to in this space for a couple of months, with “could this get Gaby” scenarios popping up everywhere.

Alas, as Pujols went to Orange County (prompting the immediate “GET TRUMBO” or “TRADE FOR MORALES” cries…with both options underwhelming me, but I’ll get to that), the Indians found themselves likely to be less than enthused about Pujols coming over to the AL and (much more importantly) likely terrified at how the Angels were able to sign Pujols AND CJ Wilson and how the activity of the Halos is only the most recent indication that the landscape of MLB is changing. And those changes are not likely to benefit the Cleveland Indians or the vast majority of the league.

Before we get to that Angels’ issues, let me point out an article that has stuck with me for the last couple of months as it was contained in an SI piece from the magazine, touting the Rangers’ presence in the World Series. The whole piece was written with the idea that the Rangers weren’t the Yankees or the Red Sox and had made all of the right moves to put themselves in the position to be playing for their first World Series Championship. While none of that is untrue (the Rangers were adept at acquiring talent and mining some hidden gems), there was a passage that stood out and it’s one that I’ve been unable to forget, with the events of the past week bringing them racing back to the forefront.

The paragraphs of interest have to do with the Rangers’ new TV deal:
But the Rangers’ biggest off-season signing was a monster $1.6 billion TV contract with Fox Sports Southwest that, starting in 2015, will bring them more than $80 million in annual revenue. It’s the kind of deal that helped turn the Yankees and the Red Sox into economic superpowers; both franchises have been enriched over the last decade by extremely lucrative local television income. The Rangers will not be a middle-class team for much longer: Their TV money will put them in a position where no free agent is out of their price range—including Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, who will be the biggest fish on the market this winter.

That was from 2 months ago and, while it was the Angels (and not the Rangers) who netted Pujols with TV money, here is the money quote on the TV deal – “It’s the kind of deal that helped turn the Yankees and Red Sox into superpowers; both franchises have been enriched over the last decade by extremely lucrative local TV income” – with the article going on to point out that the Rangers play in the 5th largest media market in MLB. Again, that deal will bring the Rangers “more than EIGHTY MILLION DOLLARS in annual revenue” just for the rights to broadcast Rangers’ games on Fox Sports Southwest.

Now, we’ve all seen that the Angels announced (after the signings of Pujols and Wilson) that they have a deal in place that NEARLY DOUBLES what the Rangers got last off-season. It will pay them $150 million annually for the next 20 years and we saw late last week what that new TV deal in Anaheim allows the Angels to add – namely the top hitter and top starting pitcher on the FA market – with much of the risk associated with it. Lest you forget, the Angels play in the 2nd largest market and, though they share that market with the Dodgers, Fox Sports West will pay them $3 Billion over the next 20 years for the rights to broadcast their games.

If the Rangers’ deal sent shivers down your spine as a fan of the Indians, the Angels deal should have sent you into full-blown shock as this Brave New World of local TV money figures to initiate a seismic shift in MLB teams, in terms of revenue, ability to take risks, and the FA market as a whole. Maybe you’re thinking that the Angels are a “hot ticket” with the Dodgers in disarray and that local interest is at an all-time high, justifying this amount of money. Well…no, as they got this deal despite, as Bill Shaikin passes along (in the piece that is linked again, because you should read it), having “the second-lowest local television ratings among major league teams last year, according to Sports Business Journal.”
Seriously…

And that fact on the Angels’ ratings last year pull into sharp focus what the TV companies are doing here as it doesn’t matter necessarily how many TV’s are tuned into a channel, but how many TV customers (people who pay their cable/satellite bills) have that channel that they pay for on their cable bill. To put that another way, it doesn’t matter how many people are watching the Indians or the Angels or the Rangers, it matters how many people are paying a portion of their TV bill for the chance to watch Tribe games. Because that number is lower in Cleveland than it is in LA or Dallas or…well, this could go on for a while, the rights to broadcast those games are going to be higher because the revenue that the cable company brings in is higher based on the amount of TV sets (or cable/satellite customers) in that local market.

Ultimately, live sporting events are really the last thing that anyone watches live anymore (remember the Flash Mob dancing guy in the train station commercial from Tribe games or Jimmy Fallon embarrassing himself during the MLB playoffs…name a time when you said “not this commercial again” other than during live sporting events) and so, yes these cable operators are going to pay a premium to air these games, particularly with MLB’s rules on local broadcasts.

Where do you think they’ll be willing to spend the most money?
Perhaps where the largest number of TV viewers exists?
Notice where these deals are getting done right now?
LA, Dallas…you know, the largest TV markets.

Go read that LA Times piece again (or if you haven’t yet as this is the last chance) and realize that the final line from that article is that “the bidding between Fox and Time Warner Cable for the Dodgers’ television rights is about to start, and the over-under is $4 billion” and that it is all based on the cable/satellite subscribers in a particular market.

So, Fox and Time Warner will throw perhaps MORE money at the Dodgers (perhaps $200M/year) to broadcast their games…does anyone want to guess what kind of revenue the Yankees get from YES, given that NY is larger than LA and one of the offerings on MY cable package is to order the YES network as a stand-alone channel?

Perhaps MLB Advanced Media, with the Internet package or the streaming video that’s available (out of market) will level this playing field a little bit, but remember that the revenue from those deals is split evenly between the 30 teams and that the great majority of the money that these teams receive for TV comes from their local TV deals, all of which are/will be based on the amount of people in a geographic area. Additionally, it’s unlikely that Fox is signing these 20-year deals if they think that the TV landscape within MLB is going to change radically in the near future.

Ultimately, the Angels’ new TV deal sets the precedent (as if the Rangers deal didn’t) for local TV deals and certainly throws a wrench into the idea that teams in MLB occupy anything close to a level playing field, which is only going to get worse as more TV deals are re-negotiated or bid on in the larger markets. Granted, not every team is going to take advantage of these inherent market advantages, but if FOX Sports or Time Warner (who gave the Lakers a $3 BILLION contract to air their games for the next 20 years, an increase of the Lakers’ TV revenue by FIVE TIMES, likely prompting this Fox-Angels deal) are going to be setting up bidding wars in most of the larger markets across America, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the markets with the most TV sets (and here’s a reminder of market size, both in Metro Areas and Combined Statistical Areas) are going to see the biggest influx of cash in a TV deal…and cash that is guaranteed?

What does that mean to the Indians?
In the long term, in light of the recent leveling of the playing field at the place where it was LEAST needed (in the draft and with signing bonuses) in the recent CBA, it means that the Indians are going to be swimming upstream to capture their first World Series Championship since 1948, as if they weren’t already. Maybe this is depressing to a level that many can’t stand in terms of the system being broken and actually getting worse, but luckily for the Indians, they operate in a division in which two of the higher payroll teams can’t seem to get out of their own way recently, with the White Sox officially rebuilding, and the Twins signing Jamey Carroll (with all due respect to Carroll…who fell into the “Casey Blake, Inexplicably Reviled” Category to quickly in Cleveland) to be their everyday SS.

In the short term, with a group of young players currently on the roster all around the same age and under similar levels of control, the Indians are betting that (as we saw in 2007) once a young, talented team gets into the playoffs, as they say, anything can happen. With an extra Wild Card berth in play now, maybe the Indians can sneak into the playoffs even if they don’t win their division, though that doesn’t look likely now with two heavyweights in the AL East and the AL West, but it certainly brings the focus back to the Indians as they stand today.

Unfortunately, we are in a place that is not unfamiliar to us as we’re left to play the connect-the-dots game of “if this guys does this, then maybe we can do this” and for whatever reason the prospect of giving a 3-year deal to fair-to-good players like Josh Willingham or Mike Cuddyer is becoming less appealing as this off-season goes forward. That’s not to say that I think that the Indians should stand pat where they are (far from it), as I’m of the belief that improving 1B is a must (and color me uninspired by the idea that Santana, Brantley, Duncan, and Donald somehow combine to a level of “improvement”) as is the idea that they still need an OF that is more of a starting OF than a 4th OF, given the injury history of the current troika of OF (and particularly Sizemore) and the concerns over Mike Brantley as an legitimate everyday OF.

Starting with 1B, the obvious names of Mark Trumbo and Kendry Morales emerged with the Pujols deal, but with Morales’ injury history (combined with the current injury concerns on the Tribe), I’d be less than inclined to look at Morales as much more than a buy-low player, if the Angels really are willing to sell low…and it doesn’t look like they are as they will tender him a contract. Now that doesn’t mean that he won’t be available, but he would likely come with a $4M price tag and no guarantee that he’d be ready for Opening Day. After holding out the tiniest sliver of hope that Nick Johnson could return to form and seeing that he couldn’t, I’d pass on Morales.

As for Trumbo, while his gaudy HR total (29) in his rookie year draws some eyes, to look at his overall line is to see a player that doesn’t look all that different from our own Matt Mattola. Since they played in a different number of games, here is how the rate stats for each compare in 2011:

Trumbo – 2011
.254 BA / .291 OBP / .477 SLG / .768 OPS / 113 OPS+ / .327 wOBA
10.7 XBH%, 20.9%, 4.4 BB%, and 5.1 HR%

LaPorta - 2011
.247 BA / .299 OBP / .412 SLG / .711 OPS / 97 OPS+ / .309 wOBA
9.1 XBH%, 22.6 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 2.9 HR%

Now, did Mark Trumbo have a better 2011 season than LaPorta did?
Of course (and Trumbo’s a year younger), but Trumbo posted a lower OBP than LaPorta with a similar K rate, a lower BB rate, and hitting about the same amount of extra-base hits as LaPorta per Plate Appearance. If we’re looking for a decided upgrade from LaPorta, as nice as Trumbo’s 29 HR last year looks, there are some major red flags there. According to some reports, Trumbo may not even be available as he’s allegedly being pegged to play 3B, so this may all be moot, but Trumbo seems to me to be a player that (to borrow a Wedgism) “ran into one” more often that LaPorta did last year, with the two players being more similar than you would hope if Trumbo is being seen as an obvious upgrade.

What does that mean in the search for a 1B?
Well, it means that we still wait for the other chips (Fielder, Pena, etc.) to fall to see what may be available or to look at a player like the Mets’ Daniel Murphy, whose 2011 actually compares favorably with the two names attached to the Indians as “solutions” at 1B/LF:
Daniel Murphy – 2011
.320 BA / .362 OBP / .448 SLG / .810 OPS / 125 OPS+ / .350 wOBA

Josh Willingham – 2011
.246 BA / .332 OBP / .477 SLG / .809 OPS / 121 OPS+ / .350 wOBA

Mike Cuddyer - 2011
.284 BA / .346 OBP / .459 SLG / .805 OPS / 121 OPS+ .354 wOBA

Maybe those numbers from Murphy are an aberration and maybe he is just a Jason Donald type who has seen success in MLB, but his cost would certainly be less than that tied to Willingham or Cuddyer. Now, it is worth mentioning that Murphy tore his left ACL last August (which would come into play given the other injury issues on the roster), but last year he played 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF for the Mets, perhaps providing some versatility that the Indians could utilize. There have been rumblings that the Mets are willing to shop him (and they need bullpen help) despite the fact that he won’t be arbitration eligible until after next season and is under club control through the 2015 season, so perhaps the Indians could find a match there to add a player that may be as productive (if not as well-known) as Cuddyer or Willingham and one who wouldn’t be on the downslope of his career and represents more of a long-term addition to the burgeoning core. While it is true that Murphy is LH, if he’s not going to cost the Indians a 3-year deal at $8M to $10M a year and provide the versatility (and perhaps production) that looks so attractive with Willingham and Cuddyer, his is a name to remember.

Another name to consider came by way of LGT’s Adam Van Arsdale, who mentioned Boston’s Josh Reddick as a possible target if the Red Sox are looking to upgrade their bullpen. As is the case with Daniel Murphy, Reddick may not have the cache of a Willingham or Cuddyer, but consider what B-Pro’s Kevin Goldstein wrote recently about Reddick and fellow Boston OF Ryan Kalish:
Kalish and Reddick have come up together through the Red Sox system and have similar potential as corner outfielders. Kalish is the more athletic of the pair, but Reddick has more power and the stronger arm. As of right now, Reddick is the starting right fielder in Boston, but as one scout put it, “They’re both good enough to play every day in the big leagues… just not for the Red Sox.” Both could be involved in potential deals that return older, more expensive upgrades.

Now, everyone remembers Ryan Kalish because he played Pete Rose to Carlos Santana’s Ray Fosse (to critical derision) a couple of years ago, but Reddick is intriguing as he’s 24 years old, was ranked as the 75th best prospect in MLB prior to the 2010 season and is coming off of a 2011 season in which he posted a .784 OPS and a .335 wOBA and while those numbers may not jump off of the page, the Indians (still) need a versatile OF. Reddick played all three OF positions last year and (though he too is LH) could slide into the LF/insurance for Grady spot that is currently occupied by Duncan, Donald, and Zeke.

Both Murphy and Reddick could represent the long-term options that Gaby Sanchez would (hey Prince…have you met Ozzie?) and adding a player like them would benefit the team…as would Marlon Byrd, who may be more available with David DeJesus is on the North Side. If it seems sad that these are the players that are being brought up, realize that the Indians need to be cognizant of their current state, but also the future incarnations of the team, particularly in light of the new TV deal in Anaheim (and Arlington) and the money that’s going to be flowing through the FA market, perhaps at a rate that is going to (gasp) increase.

Regardless of how depressing the TV deal in Anaheim may be for the long-term health of the sport we love, there are still some moves to be made by the Tribe and, as much as most in the local media can’t get their FA blinders off as they seem to ONLY follow these FA, the Indians still have some fungible pieces (both Perezes, Cord Phelps, perhaps Joe Smith) that could re-make the parent club’s roster to make it more competitive not only for 2012 but beyond.

Those moves might amount to “tweaking” or could be full-scale “reshuffling” (in the bullpen), but the Indians have the opportunity to make a push in the AL Central as their young players mature and establish themselves. How they augment that group of young talent could go a long way in determining when the next legitimate playoff shot comes on the shores of Lake Erie, particularly considering a TV revenue landscape in MLB that is spinning wildly out of control.

A Lazy Sunday with the New CBA

2011-12-03T18:31:00.001-05:00

A Note From Paul:
As you may have noticed, the posting has become a bit more sporadic around these parts as my “big step back” has certainly afforded me some nice decompression time, even if it hasn’t completely removed me from the equation. Since this site started in 2005, it has always provided me the cathartic outlet to write about the Indians and, while this has never been the most…um, interactive site on these Interwebs, this has been a labor of love to foster an intelligent place to read and dissect the Indians and since I think that I’ve accomplished that to some degree, it is not something that I’m willing to simply fade away.

Truthfully, this desire to keep the site active is tied to the fact that I think that this place provides an alternative to the website for the only newspaper in a one-paper town posting “stories” that simply link to an out-of-touch and irrelevant writer like Ingraham or (worse) post a reader comment as a “story” with a headline as groundbreaking as “Indians Still Need to Get Better – Comment of the Day” to stir the pot of discontent or attempt still dictate public opinion in a town with a major inferiority complex by appealing to the lowest common denominator.

At this point, I’m proud that the amount of RSS “followers” that subscribe to the site dwarfs the numbers that similar sites (and even mainstream media members) boast and the Twitter followers (as infrequently as I’m on Twitter) show that there is interest in continuing to visit this place more frequently than once every couple of weeks. With that in mind, I’m going to start to fold in some regular contributors to the site and the obvious first addition is Al Ciammaichella, who has filled in for me in the past on Lazy Sundays and who has written extensively on the Indians’ farm system. Al’s writing is insightful and entertaining and I think that he’s a welcome addition to the full-time cycle of stories that will continue to post here. The posting still doesn’t figure to be nearly as regimented or as regular as it has been (so hit up the RSS feed or follow on Twitter), but in this age of instant information and 140-character “analysis”, this site will remain what it has always been – a place for similarly-minded Indians’ fanatics looking for something more, in terms of insight and analysis.

With that, here’s Al with a great piece on the newly signed CBA and the impact that it figures to have on OUR Cleveland Indians…
__________

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Union quietly negotiated a new collective bargaining agreement over the past few months, and announced on November 22 that they have a deal that will extend labor tranquility for the next five years. This ensures that MLB will continue to operate without a work stoppage of any kind since the 1994/1995 strike wiped out the ’94 playoffs and the beginning of the ’95 season. It’s the longest such streak in professional sports, which is a good thing. Some of the provisions in the new CBA though, seem somewhat short-sighted and may serve to hurt small-market clubs like the Indians. In fact, the deal takes options off the table for small-market clubs and does virtually nothing to correct the massive revenue imbalance that currently exists between the big-market teams like New York and Boston and the smaller-market clubs such as the Indians and Pirates. Given an opportunity to fix a clearly broken system, the players looked out for their own salaries and the owners took an opportunity to line their own pockets at the expense of amateur athletes.

The Good

First, let’s hit the high points in the new CBA. One change that I fully endorse is moving up the signing date for Rule 4 draft picks from mid-August to mid-July. Most of the high $$ players signed at the deadline anyways, with several of them having deals in place in advance but having to hold off on announcing them because MLB didn’t like them going over the “suggested” slot. The earlier signing date means that more players will sign in time to make their professional debuts the sam

The second change that I’m in favor of is increasing the use of instant replay to fair/foul and trapped/caught balls in the outfield. The goal is to get the call right, and hopefully this will save baseball the potential of further embarrassment by the on-field performance of an umpire. Ball/strike and safe/out calls are still not reviewable.e year they are drafted, rather than having to wait until the following season. This means they will develop a little quicker, and really means that we’ll get to see them play sooner, which is my major reason to like the change. The mid-August date always seemed arbitrary and pointless, so might as well have an arbitrary date earlier in the process.

To throw a bone to the small market clubs out there, baseball has instituted a “competitive balance lottery.” Basically, it’s welfare.

5. Competitive Balance Lottery

A. For the first time, Clubs with the lowest revenues and in the smallest markets will have an opportunity to obtain additional draft picks through a lottery.
B. The ten Clubs with the lowest revenues, and the ten Clubs in the smallest markets, will be entered into a lottery for the six draft selections immediately following the completion of the first round of the draft. A Club's odds of winning the lottery will be based on its prior season's winning percentage.
C. The eligible Clubs that did not receive one of the six selections after the first round, and all other payee Clubs under the Revenue Sharing Plan, will be entered into a second lottery for the six picks immediately following the completion of the second round of the draft. A Club's odds of winning the lottery will be based on its prior season's winning per

centage.
D. Picks awarded in the Competitive Balance Lottery may be assigned by a Club, subject to certain restrictions.

So the teams in the 10 smallest markets get entered into the lottery (good), as well as the teams with the 10 lowest revenues (bad). I understand the small market idea, but I have no clue why MLB wants to reward teams for not making money. While it is true that revenue is to a point tied to your market size, teams in small markets can still perform well and make money (see Tampa Bay for the latest example). So I like the idea, just not a huge fan of the execution.

The final point I’ll cover here is a brief one, but one that Indians fans should care about. Any player who is arrested for a DUI will undergo mandatory evaluation by the league. I’m not clear on what this mandatory evaluation will consist of, or if it will cause the player to miss any games on the field, but this is a good thing. We all remember the Miggy Cabrera incident from spring training last year, and of course the S.S. Choo DUI from midseason that he admittedly had trouble moving past. These incidents are bad publicity for the league, the team, the player involved, and more importantly they are just plain unsafe. Hopefully this serves to stem what appeared to be an increasing tide of alcohol related incidents involving MLB employees, and we never see a Leonard Little type incident where an MLB player actually kills somebody behind the wheel while drunk. It should serve to increase awareness, decrease incidents, and allow those involved to receive appropriate counseling and move past it. Aaaaaaand I’m off my soapbox.

The Bad

Now, we come to the not so nice side of the new CBA. Bud Selig stated publicly that his #1 priority in the negotiations was to “fix the Rule 4 draft.” What exactly he was trying to “fix” is unclear, as I don’t think anyone was really thinking that the draft was broken other than Selig himself. So what we ended up with was this; a “luxury tax” on teams spending more than the commissioner’s instituted limits on how much each team can spend on the draft. Here’s how it looks like on paper:

3. Signing Bonus Pools
A. Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft. For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club's Signing Bonus Pool equals the sum of the values of that Club's selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft. Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club's Signing Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess of $100,000 will count against the Pool.

B. Clubs that exceed their Signing Bonus Pools will be subject to penalties as follows:
Excess of Pool Penalty (Tax on Overage/Draft Picks)
• 0-5 percent; 75 percent tax on overage
• 5-10 percent; 75 percent tax on overage and loss of 1st round pick
• 10-15 percent; 100 percent tax on overage and loss of 1st and 2nd round picks
• 15-plus percent; 100 percent tax on overage and loss of 1st round picks in next two drafts

So the teams picking earlier in the draft will have more $$ to spend overall than the teams picking later, but there are some pretty severe penalties for going over your limits by as little as 6%. Also, if you miss out on signing a pick, you can’t bank the $$ for overslot signings later in the draft, you just lose the opportunity to spend the money. So if the Indians dare to go overslot on signing their 1^st round pick and then go on to sign high-upside guys later in the draft for overslot, they will pay up to double for their trouble, not to mention lose their 1^st round draft pick in the following season. Again, let me stress that the commissioner’s office has decided that the draft, the easiest and cheapest way for teams to add elite talent, should be rigged so that teams cannot add the most amount of talent, to the point where teams lose their 1^st-round pick if they dare go over Lord Selig’s recommended spending level. Per Baseball America’s Jim Calis, a whopping twenty teams (including the Indians) would have been 16% or more over the recommended bonus pool this year, which would put them in the highest possible tax bracket and cost them a pair of draft picks. I’ve always advocated overslot spending in the draft as the best possible way for a small market team like the Indians to compete, and now that advantage is being taken away by King Bud in his attempt to “fix” the draft. You could even argue that the change benefits teams from the larger TV markets, as they can afford to spend overslot, pay the tax, give up the pick(s) and then just do the same thing next year. Because if you think this will cause agents like Scott Boras to take a step back and start asking for lower bonus money, you’ve got another thing coming. So this could actually force the higher level talent to the big-budget teams, because only they will be able to afford to select them and pay the accompanying luxury taxes. So how exactly does this “fix” the draft? A draft that wasn’t broken in the first place? Beats me. For what it’s worth, the tax revenue and lost draft picks will go to teams that don’t go over the cap. I’m going to break a personal rule here and link to a Pittsburgh paper, because Pirates writer Dejan Kovacevic really hits the nail on the head in his piece looking at the same issue. I hated Selig’s unnecessary slot recommendations, I hated how his office forced teams and players to keep the lid on deals that they had agreed to for weeks at a time, and now I hate the latest changes he’s made with respect to the Rule 4 Draft. To say that I’m not a Bud Selig fan right now would be a bit of an understatement.

As if that weren’t enough, MLB has decided to “fix” the international free agent signing process in much the same way. Here’s the new rule, in its entirety:

5 f. International Talent Acquisition
1. By December 15, 2011, the parties will form an International Talent Committee to discuss the development and acquisition of international players, including the potential inclusion of international amateur players in a draft or in multiple drafts.
2. For the 2012-13 signing season, each Club will be allocated an equal Signing Bonus Pool.
3. For each signing period after 2012-13, Clubs will be allocated different Signing Bonus Pools, based on reverse order of winning percentage the prior championship season (i.e., the Club with the lowest winning percentage the prior season shall receive the largest Pool).
4. Bonus Regulation of International Amateur Players
A. Beginning in the 2013-2014 signing period (July 2, 2013 - June 15, 2014), Clubs may trade a portion of their Signing Bonus Pool, subject to certain restrictions.
B. Clubs that exceed their Signing Bonus Pools will be subject to the following penalties in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 signing periods: Excess of Pool Penalty (Tax on Overage/Draft Picks)
• 0-5percent; 75 percent tax
• 5-10 percent; 75 percent tax and loss of right to provide more than one player in the next signing period with a bonus in excess of $500,000.
• 10-15 percent; 100 percent tax and loss of right to provide any player in the next signing period with a bonus in excess of $500,0000.
• 15-plus percent; 100 percent tax and loss of right to provide any player in the next signing period with a bonus in excess of $250,000.
C. The penalties for exceeding the Signing Bonus Pool will increase beginning with the 2014-2015 signing period if a draft or drafts is not agreed to by July 2014.

So basically, starting next year, teams will get to spend $2.9 million on international free agents. Per team. Total. So teams like the Texas Rangers, who have invested heavily in their international facilities, scouting, and signing will now have to go from spending $17.6 million like they did last season alone to about 1/6^th of that starting next year or face draconian penalties. Much like the draft, international scouting and signings have been seen as a way for smaller market teams to get some more bang for their buck in terms of elite talent. Texas, Cincy, Cleveland, Seattle, Toronto and Boston have historically been among some of the big spenders in Latin America. With the exception of Boston and Texas, those are small market teams. New York no longer needs to worry about spending time and money in their international scouting budget to keep up. More savings for them to waste money on crappy starting pitching in the free agent market. Potential advantage, lost. Not to mention the Latin American athletes who will now be more drawn to soccer and basketball as alternatives to baseball with the bonuses drying up. So for those of you who were thinking that the team could shift draft resources to the international market, no dice.

If you thought this was it, and there was no way the new CBA could possibly have any more provisions that hurt the Indians, I’m afraid I have one more. The new CBA raises the league minimum salary 16%, from $414,000 to $480,000, beginning in 2012. For most teams, that won’t make too much of a difference. But as Jon over at WFNY points out, the Indians had 16 players making the league minimum on their 40-man roster, most in the American League last year. If this year’s roster is similarly constructed, that’s an additional $1 million plus in salary flexibility that the Indians lose without making a single move. For a team that has less than $10 million to play with overall, more than 10% of the FA budget is toast because of the raise. Cause, you know, it’s awfully hard to survive on JUST $414,000 a year, plus per diem. Thank God they stepped in and bumped that up.

The Undecided

Not all of the provisions in the new CBA are necessarily good or bad. Some I am just plain undecided on, or really don’t care about. The ones I don’t care about, such as the Astros moving to the AL, I’m just not going to talk any further about. Some though, have a potential to effect the Indians and baseball as a whole as the years go by, so I’ll at least touch on several of them here.

The players and owners agreed on a HGH testing program for the first time.

IX. DRUG PROGRAM
Commencing in Spring Training 2012, all players will be subject to hGH blood testing for reasonable cause at all times during the year. In addition, during each year, all players will be tested during Spring Training. Starting with the 2012-2013 off-season, players will be subject to random unannounced testing for hGH. The parties have also agreed on a process to jointly study the possibility of expanding blood testing to include inseason collections.

Sounds great, right? Well, it’s a little unclear on a couple of points. Not to sound like a lawyer, but what does “reasonable cause” mean? I know about probable cause, and I know about reasonable suspicion, but I’ve never heard of reasonable cause. Also, the blood test can only pick up HGH if it has been in the system in the past 3 days. So unless a player is actively using, the test really isn’t going to be effective. It’s really more of a PR move than anything, but I’ll hold off on any harsher judgment for now.

MLB has also decided to change the way they give out compensation picks for free agent losses. The Type-A/Type-B designation is done away with, and now compensation is tied entirely to the offer that the team losing the free agent makes to the player. If the team doesn’t offer at least a guaranteed 1-year contract equal to the average of the 125 highest paid players in baseball, then there’s no compensation for losing the free agent. Here’s the text of the new provision:

b. Draft Pick Compensation
1. Starting in 2012, "Type A" and "Type B" free agents and the use of the Elias ranking system will be eliminated.

A. Only Players who have been with their Clubs for the entire season will be subject to compensation.

B. A free agent will be subject to compensation if his former Club offers him a guaranteed one-year contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the 125-highest paid Players from the prior season. The offer must be made at the end of the five-day free agent "quiet period," and the Player will have seven days to accept the offer.

C. A Club that signs a player subject to compensation will forfeit its first round selection, unless it selects in the top 10, in which case it will forfeit its second-highest selection in the draft.

D. The Player's former Club will receive a selection at the end of the first round beginning after the last regularly scheduled selection in the round. The former Clubs will select based on reverse order of winning percentage from the prior championship season.

This would mean that a team would have to offer about $12 million or more to a player in order to qualify for draft pick compensation. So if Sizemore comes back and has a solid but not great season and gets a 3-year, $33 million offer from the Red Sox and the Indians don’t offer him at least $12 million for one season, no draft pick compensation when he leaves. This is a pretty neutral change overall; the Red Sox were known for exploiting the draft pick compensation loophole, and a lot of middling relief pitchers and #4 starters ended up garnering draft pick compensation for no real reason. If the Indians develop and lose a real free agent of note down the road, they’ll likely at least make the token $12 million offer in order to be compensated.

The third provision of the CBA that I’m undecided on is the inclusion of an additional wildcard team, starting as soon as 2012. The two wild club teams will now play a one-game playoff for the right to be THE wild card team in each league. Unfortunately, this was not in place in 2000 when the Indians finished a game out of the playoffs. It’s a way for MLB to add drama down the stretch and say that they’re more balanced than they really are by adding another “playoff” team. I’m not a huge fan, but I’m not dead-set against it either. We’ll see how it works out.

The silliest provision in the new CBA, to me at least, is the rule banning all forms of tobacco from all major and minor league dugouts and the playing field once the gates have been open to the fans. Look, I don’t use chewing tobacco. Never have. My teammates in college sure did, but I never got into the stuff, mainly because I think it’s disgusting and causes cancer. But MLB is overreacting by banning the substance from the field entirely. If these guys want to chew, let them chew. I know of very few kids who have started dipping just because their favorite big league ballplayer has a can of snuff in their back pocket on the diamond. Trust kids to be smarter than that. Trust that they can make their own decisions. Don’t take the ability to choose away from the players on the field. That’s just a gross overreaction, and is typical of Selig’s mentality.

So there you have it, sports fans. The new CBA in a nutshell. A really, really long nutshell. Selig and the players union thought it was more important to line their own pockets than to even the playing field with respect to small and large market teams, and the only player population that will suffer are the amateurs, who (surprise surprise) had no voice in the negotiations since they are of course not in the players union yet. Funny how that works out. They “leveled the playing field” in the draft and the international FA market, traditionally the two cheapest methods of adding elite talent to a ballclub, but did nothing to curb free agent spending, the most expensive method and the method in which the Indians cannot hope to be significant players. The new CBA is a win for labor peace, and a win for big-market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets at the expense of the little guys. It’s now easier to put together a ballclub if you’re rich, and more difficult to do so if you’re smart. Thanks a lot, Bud.

One More For Sizemore

2011-11-25T21:44:00.008-05:00

In a rather stunning about face, it seems that Grady Sizemore will remain an Indian…at least for one more year, as he agreed to a one-year, $5M deal (with about $4M in incentives) to remain with Cleveland. To say that the growing scuttlebutt that a deal was imminent and the actual terms of the deal were surprising is an understatement as most indications were that Sizemore would dip his toe into the FA waters after the Indians declined his $9M club option for 2012 as Grady would attempt to re-establish his market value elsewhere with an eye towards a bigger contract after the 2012 season. After some grandstanding by his agent and after Grady’s name was attached to a myriad of other teams – with the word “intriguing” always preceding his name in those reports – Sizemore will return to patrol the OF at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario…at least as much as his body will allow. The deal answers one question of the off-season (how will the Indians attempt to replace Grady…with GRADY!), even if it opens many more in terms of how much this team is realistically counting on contributions from Sizemore (and Hafner, for that matter) as they attempt to make a push in 2012.

But there’s plenty of time to get to that as there is certainly some intrigue to get to as to how Sizemore ended up back on the North Coast after most assumed that the declining of his option spelled the end for Grady, the Indian. To start, let’s go back to that option, which was a $9M club option that the Indians were told by Grady’s agent, Joe Urbon, to either pick up or decline it as the renegotiation looked to be in everyone’s best interest never seemed to find traction. With that, the line in the sand was drawn by Urbon, and the Indians responded as one would have thought they would respond – declining the option, asking Urbon to keep them abreast of the demand for Grady, and staying “interested” in having Sizemore return in a deal that was likely similar to what they were offering as part of the renegotiated option.

Apparently convinced that the interest in Sizemore would be enough to find a one-year deal with a higher guaranteed amount than the Indians were offering, Urbon began seeking suitors other than Cleveland. As the weeks progressed though, it was obvious that Urbon had been overly hopeful about the interest that existed on the open market for Sizemore. Though he was in front of microphones and cameras, touting teams that showed an interest in Sizemore’s services for 2012, it became increasingly apparent that most teams’ interest fell in line with what the Indians were probably willing to risk on a one-year deal for Grady, a low guaranteed amount with some incentives built in.

Frankly, though speculation came out in various outlets that Sizemore would be able to find a one-year deal close to the $9M option that was declined, I never really understood this idea that Sizemore was going to hit the FA market and find a team willing to give him a deal (even if it was a one-year contract) that was going to be anywhere close to the that $9M, regardless of market size or any particular team’s appetite for risk. But that idea existed and continued to exist as SI.com’s Jon Heyman JUST wrote earlier this week that he thought that Sizemore would get a one-year deal with SEVEN MILLION guaranteed “plus a lot of incentives”, something that Sizemore didn’t even sniff.

Maybe the $7M guaranteed deal that Heyman predicted and the $5M guaranteed deal that Sizemore inked don’t look all that different, but remember that Sizemore and his agent looked for a better (or even comparable) deal than the Indians presumably offered as a renegotiation of that option and still came back for less that ¾ of the amount that Heyman offered as a “guess” just this week. Instead, Sizemore will get the $5M with about $4M in incentives and those incentives aren’t all that easy to trigger when you consider not only Sizemore’s recent injury history, but also where the incentives start to kick in. In case you haven’t seen Grady gets $250,000 for reaching each of 450 and 475 plate appearances, and $500,000 for reaching each of 500, 525, 550, 575, 600, 625, and 650 with a tied-in $500,000 bonus for winning comeback player of the year.

As much as I hate those incentive bonuses tied to “awards”, the fact that Sizemore’s incentives don’t kick in until his 450th PA is not insignificant…and it actually has less to do with Grady’s assumed health than you might think. To provide some context here, three players (Cabrera, Santana, and Brantley) on the Indians last year had more than 450 PA last year and only two (Asdrubal and The Axe Man) had 500 or more. It’s true that a total of 84 players in the AL had 450 PA last year (about six players per AL team), but 450 is not a given for a player that spends ANY amount of time on the DL or experiences sporadic playing time. The fact that the incentives start SO high (in terms of PA) are just another indication that the Indians’ offer to Sizemore that brought him to the table (which resulted in him signing) was pretty significant compared what else was out there for him. That may be terrifying for Indians fans or maybe this “unfinished business” thing that Sizemore’s touting holds some level of water, but it also makes the stance of Sizemore’s agent regarding the option (either pick it up or decline it) all the more puzzling as while it may never be known what the Indians were offering him to renegotiate that option, it’s pretty likely that it was close to the deal that he just signed…with one big exception – the fact that Sizemore’s new deal contains no club options past the 2012 season, something they almost certainly would have demanded in a renegotiation of that club option.

While that may not seem like a big deal on the surface (particularly among those who think that Grady is finished and that $5M is a waste of money on him…apparently because Tribe fans only like Indians’ players who have been away for longer than a decade), the fact that the Indians were not able to include a club option means that Sizemore is very likely to walk away from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario at the end of the 2012 season, particularly if he is able to stay healthy and productive in 2012. For the Indians, the lack of an option of the deal is the only real downside as they figure to be stuck in the same situation next year (needing an OF) regardless of how Grady performs in 2012. If he’s truly finished, the Indians need to replace him (probably in June) and if he dons his cape and becomes SuperSizemore again, he moves on to the BIG deal that every ballplayer has dreamed about, having already given the Indians two “hometown discount” deals in his career. If he re-establishes his value, the Indians get to enjoy that re-establishment (and maybe some playoff games) in 2012 then watch him walk away as the bloodthirsty fans are thrown more red meat for the “DOLANZ R CHEEP” refrain that they are so quick to sing.

Ultimately, Sizemore doesn’t really get the deal that his agent thought was out there for him and the Indians don’t get the option year that they likely wanted to attach to this deal. That’s not to say that this is a “lose-lose” for both parties (and I’ve actually seen it called a “win-win”) as Sizemore returns to the medical staff that knows him best, to an organization that is likely to give him a longer rope and a greater opportunity than he might have found elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Indians get to hold onto the hope that Grady v.2005-2008 is coming back in some form in 2012, offering them the dynamic bat that he showed, albeit briefly, in 2011.

Perhaps it could be said that if neither party is completely satisfied with the outcome of a negotiation that it’s a fair deal, and my hope that the Indians and Sizemore could have agreed on a contract that would have had a lower base salary (but more guaranteed money) which included a couple of option years and a lot of (more easily reached) incentives that would pay him commensurately is all but dashed.

Despite what everyone is going to say, this really isn’t the IDEAL outcome that anyone wanted as much as it was two parties that knew each other signing deals that represented the best options available for each. Neither is doing back-flips about this nor is either bemoaning this deal as it represents a chance for Sizemore to re-establish his value with the medical staff that is most familiar with him while the Indians take one last shot that the ol’ Grady is somewhere in that battered and scarred body. Sure, the Indians wanted Sizemore back at a lower price, but they also probably wanted some option years attached to it in case he did return to his old level of production, just as Grady and his agent wanted a higher base salary and probably some incentives that were “easier” to reach.

Regardless, what’s done is done and Sizemore is back in the fray as the Indians are left to wonder (or is it hope) what they can legitimately expect from Grady and that “battered and scarred body” as they are supposedly penciling him in for CF in 2012 for Opening Day with the hope that he’ll be able to play the “vast majority” of the games there. Certainly, that idea sets off the sirens in the head of any Indians’ fan as the continued issues with Sizemore and Hafner over the last few years has the fanbase feeling justifiably skeptical that the stars that those players once were will ever return, much less for an extended period of time.

However, the interesting thing about that is that Sizemore returned in mid-April of last year and (as I wrote back in May) despite the fact that he was coming off of microfracture surgery, “Suddenly, he was that Grady that we all like to remember, posting a .974 OPS with 16 XBH in only 18 games…that is until he hurt his ‘other’ knee sliding into 2B on May 10th, landing him back on the DL.” So, is that player that posted a .282 BA / .333 OBP / .641 SLG / .974 OPS when he returned in April still somewhere within that #24 jersey and, much more importantly, can that player stick around for longer than 3 weeks?

That’s what the Indians are counting on, as he remains potentially dynamic as a hitter, but that “potential” comes with a giant asterisk as (outside of those 3 weeks last April and May) he really hasn’t performed at a consistently high level since August of 2009 before he was derailed in September of that year, when he decided to undergo a surgery on his left elbow, which had troubled him all season. And that’s the rub with Sizemore, in that he tries to play through injuries, to the detriment of his performance and the Indians have historically given him a wide berth in terms of allowing him to play hurt as Sizemore at 75% usually represents an upgrade over the obvious alternative. Which brings us back to the last couple of weeks with Grady coming to terms with the Tribe, as if we’re talking purely from a talent standpoint, Grady is probably unrivaled in terms of talent that was available on the FA market as an OF (though I could make the argument for Beltran), but talent isn’t the only factor here…obviously.

Durability is a major one and we’ve been through this too many times to count, but if the Indians are counting on Grady Sizemore to carry some of the offensive burden again in 2012 (and I mean REALLY counting on it and not just hoping for it), it is misplaced confidence and something that could undermine their 2012 season as a “Plan B” is needed with Sizemore going into the season and the current options in place are…um, a little underwhelming. Essentially, as nice as the re-signing of Sizemore looks to us dreamers out there (that think that THIS is the year that Grady stays healthy and returns), the reality of the situation is that the Indians should still focus on adding two more veteran bats, and one of those bats needs to be an OF…and not a 4th OF type.

Maybe you want to buy into the idea that Shelley Duncan and Jason Donald are decent enough options for OF depth, but I’m not buying the Donald and Duncan as 4th/5th OF idea, much less as the “Plan B” in case Grady were to go down. To put that another way, if Grady does in 2012 what Grady’s done for the last couple of years, the Indians’ OF suddenly becomes Donald and Duncan filling in around Brantley (who I’m not as high on as most…but I’ll get to that) to fill out an OF.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Jason Donald as a player and think that he’s going to play a LOT more than people think he’s going to in 2012 (mainly spelling the IF positions), but these visions of Luis Valbuena in LF are burned in my synapses. Of course that’s not fair as I have yet to see Donald patrol the OF grass, but somebody, somewhere in the Indians’ organization had the idea that Valbuena would be more versatile if he could play in the OF and he played 11 games as a LF for the Clippers. To be clear, Donald has never played a minor league game in the OF and despite the idea that reports may be glowing about his ability to handle the OF, I’m not all that interested in seeing Donald as the 4th OF in 2012, or really ever. As AC so succinctly put in a piece earlier in the week, speculation that Donald represents REAL OF depth is “spaghetti-tossing territory”.

As for this idea that Shelley Duncan represents legitimate option, a good amount of that is tied to the idea that Duncan finished the season with an .808 OPS (3rd highest on the Tribe for players with more than 225 PA), but if that’s what is inspires so much confidence, let’s take a look at what Duncan actually put forth last year, in terms of the timeline of his hitting:
Opening Day through September 2nd
.253 BA / .313 OBP / .404 SLG / .717 OPS with 4 HR & 10 2B in 160 PA

September 2nd to End of Season
.273 BA / .345 OBP / .636 SLG / .981 OPS with 7 HR & 7 2B in 87 PA

Again, Duncan had a .717 OPS on September 2nd (for context, Matt MaTola had a .711 OPS on the season) and just because Duncan’s numbers getting a HUGE boost in September, I couldn’t help but remember another player who looked Ruthian for a couple of North Coast Septembers:
Karim Garcia – September 2001
.311 BA / .360 OBP / .711 SLG / 1.071 OPS with 5 HR & 2 2B in 50 PA

Karim Garcia – September 2002
.278 BA / .295 OBP / .593 SLG / .887 OPS with 10 HR & 4 2B in 112 PA

Just to put a punctuation mark on that, Karim Garcia was 25 and 26 in those two seasons, while Shelley Duncan turned 32 a couple of months ago. Of course, don’t take this to mean that Shelley Duncan is not a useful player as he certainly brings a level of energy and leadership to the clubhouse which could be lacking next year and his RH bat is a nice complement to the current Indians’ lineup (and Hafner in particular). But if Shelley Duncan is the Indians “Plan B” in case something was to go SPROING with Grady…well, that’s not a well-thought-out “Plan B”.

Now, you may be saying that it’s unfair to dismiss Duncan’s success over a three week period while looking at what Sizemore did over a different three week period to project that Sizemore could find success again, but let’s be clear about what’s being compared. For Grady, the track record for elite production at the MLB level is/was there, and with Sizemore still 3 years younger than Duncan (who had 422 career MLB PA going into the 2011 season), you’re talking about a potentially elite player returning to what he’s been and a player who has likely reached his ceiling hanging around at the level of production that he’s attained which, to date, has not earned him an extended shot in MLB at the age of 32.

When it’s all said and done with the Sizemore signing, another bat in the OF is necessary and what the Indians should be targeting is a player that legitimately projects as a starter on his own, not as a 4th or 5th OF who represents little more than what Duncan or Zeke Carrera has to offer. While I still think that Marlon Byrd is a nice option to have that can be moved around LF and CF as well as subbing in at DH, a player of Byrd’s ilk (if not specifically Byrd) is essentially what I’m looking at here. If it means that the “other” OF starts the season in LF and pushes Brantley to the bench/4th OF status, so be it…on one hand for the sake of depth and on the other hand because I’m not all that sure that Brantley tops out as much more than a nice 4th OF on a good team right now. Perhaps that’s overly harsh for a 24-year-old, but if the Indians are truly looking to contend in 2012, I’d like to see them put the best team on the field every day and have the flexibility and quality on the bench to allow players like Sizemore and Hafner (and others) to get the days off that they’re likely to need, to say nothing of the inevitable injuries that figure to befall the Indians. It’s been written here before, but the position player cupboard is essentially empty (unless Nick Weglarz miraculously stays healthy) at the upper levels so what you saw in the 2nd half of last year in terms of OF depth is pretty much it.

With that said, if the Indians can creatively add that LF via a trade (and they have yet to move any of their trade chips though they’ve added Lowe and Grady), I’d push Brantley into a quasi-4th OF role as this pervasive fear that he’s a poor man’s Coco Crisp is something I can’t shake, not helped by the fact that Bill James has a projected .690 OPS for Brantley in 2012. Realistically, there are too many injury risks on this team (Hafner and Sizemore, not to mention that Asdrubal, Choo, and Santana have all missed SIGNIFICANT time to injuries in the last two years) to figure that adding a LF would bury Brantley in any sense. With Sizemore and Hafner, the Indians need to find players that they can count on for depth that aren’t named Zeke, Shelley, or (heaven forbid) Trevor.

If they do go into the season with a “renewed” confidence that everyone will stay healthy, it will be a mistake and, perhaps this is just reading into the moves that Antonetti has made since he’s been handed the GM reins, I don’t think that the moves are done for the Tribe. To this point in the off-season, they’ve been aggressive, adding a starting pitcher and (hopefully) a CF before Thanksgiving and without committing any money to either past 2012 and without giving up any trade chips of any real significance. How much can really be expected from Lowe and (more pointedly) Sizemore can only reveal themselves once the team gets to Goodyear and after they leave the Arizona sun, but the Indians have significant needs that remain.

Despite the “addition” of Sizemore, the Indians still need an OF, not to mention a 1B that represents a measurable upgrade over LaPorta. Though most thought that the Indians would let the market shake out at the top, then come up with a game plan, the Tribe has added pieces for what they hope will be a 2012 run at contention. For the sake of that presumed “run at contention”, let’s hope that the Sizemore signing isn’t the end of the game plan that’s been drawn up.

Looking for Lumber

2011-11-14T20:57:00.007-05:00

Now that the dust has settled on the North Coast after the option decisions and the acquisition of Derek Lowe, the focus has turned to what the Indians are going to do to add position players and, specifically, how the Indians are going to “replace” Grady Sizemore (and I’m still of the belief that Grady will start going SuperSizemore again in 2012, you know…because I’m a Clevelander) in the OF and how the Indians are going to shore up their hole at 1B. This being the off-season, flush with rankings of FA and with reports linking every FA to nearly every team, much of the focus to date has inexplicably been on that FA market with Paul Hoynes even devoting a whole column to the FA market for OF and 1B (in which he writes that Josh Willingham would “look good in right field”, apparently forgetting about the Indians RF, who was an elite player in the three years prior to 2011...you know, The BLC), while ignoring the fact that the Indians aren’t likely to add veterans (or anyone) of much significance via FA.

While that idea that marquee FA are unlikely to end up in Cleveland shouldn’t come as a surprise and only leads the “DOLANZ R CHEEP” crowd to cle.com en masse, let’s think about how teams like the Indians add value to their team while minimizing risk (contracts that last too long) and how the last couple of moves by the Indians have involved a particular type of acquisition. Those recent acquisitions involved adding a player who had signed a regrettable contract that was entering the last year of said contract, with their team looking to get out from the financial albatross that they strapped around their own neck.

Remember Fukudome last year?
Lest you forget, Kosuke Fukudome earned more than Hafner did in 2011 and was a disappointment in Chicago, largely because of the money paid to him and the expectations that accompanied that salary. With lower expectations (and a low price tag), he was a revelation of sorts in Cleveland, mainly because he represented an upgrade over the “Zeke and Shelley Show” and because those preconceptions about his monetary worth didn’t play a role in how he was perceived as it was on the North Side.

Now, I’m not saying the Indians should re-sign Fukudome as he’s now back out on the FA market and the Indians would have to overpay for his services, when they were able to basically take him off of the Cubs’ hands last year, for a nominal price. But the Fukudome deal is just one example…does the scenario sound familiar in terms of the Lowe addition with the Braves looking to move a player and willing to absorb money in the process?

If you’re talking about essentially signing Lowe to a one-year deal for $5M, it makes it pretty understandable, particularly when you consider that the detritus of the FA starting pitcher market is going to look for 2-year deals or incentive-laden deals while the Indians’ risk with Lowe is minimized to a 1-year, $5M deal while giving up a non-prospect. Truthfully, I know I’m not breaking any new ground here as there was a blurb in Terry Pluto’s Sunday column a couple of weeks ago along these lines that may have gotten overlooked (and I’m not talking about Pluto using the save “statistic” as a justification for C. Perez as the closer, which is like saying that Dave Huff’s 11 wins in 2009 were a “good sign”) as it was the final bullet point:
While the Indians will bid on some free agents, they have a much better chance of finding a hitter via a trade where they pick up part of the contract. The Tribe did that with Kosuke Fukudome last season when he was acquired from the Cubs, and are paying $5 million of Lowe’s $15 million salary in 2012.

Realizing that Pluto’s Sunday Notes column comes from conversations with the Indians every week, how does this revelation get buried as the last bullet point and why is there still so much focus on THIS FA class as Carlos Pena and Josh Willingham continue to get all of the attention, despite the fact that they’re unlikely to come to Cleveland?

If you think it was just a concept in passing that Pluto was passing along, realize that Pluto led with it again in his most recent Sunday piece (which, again, generally comes from the team) as he wrote:
The best way for the Indians to add an outfielder who can hit is through a trade. Yes, fans can demand that they spend a lot of money to sign a free agent such as Michael Cuddyer, but it’s not going to happen.

Of course, Pluto then went on to again look at the underwhelming FA market that is “not going to happen” in adding an OF as the names that everyone keeps saying (Willingham, Pena, Ludwick, Lee, Kotchman, etc.) are examined and revealed for what they are – flawed options that are going to cost too much in terms of money on the FA market and (this is important) that are probably going to command more than one-year deals when they aren’t really all that deserving of them. For a team like the Indians, whose financial flexibility is a key to their success as this new “core” of players matures and evolves, the prospect of giving Josh Willingham a 3-year deal is more than unsavory and, if you’re following along here, it’s pretty likely that these 3-year deals aren’t being given all that much thought at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as perhaps a different strategy is at play.

So why are we still talking about the FA market if we’ve all seen this movie and know how it ends up?
Really, if nobody else is going to connect these dots, let’s pull out the ol’ pencil and start connecting here…

Which brings us all back to how this team is going to add bats if they’re unlikely to via FA. Truthfully, my astute friend Tyler e-mailed me this idea a few weeks back (prior to the Pluto articles) saying that perhaps the “answer” to where the Indians add bats to this team isn’t on the FA market or a “blockbuster” deal, but in players that would essentially be other teams’ salary dumps, as both Fukudome and Lowe were. As Tyler wrote me, “They’re expensive in upfront cash but low in long term risk. It’s either cash or bust in terms of talent acquisition. Given that ... it seems that payroll relief deals are the cheapest route available. Give us your perennially disappointing, your over-priced, your moderately wounded ...”

Maybe “cash or bust” isn’t the accepted Modus Operandi of this organization and “perennially disappointing”, etc. is not exactly inspiring, but he’s exactly right…

The names that the Indians are going to be targeting are the guys that maybe have one-year left on their existing deal (as Lowe did) or who underperformed their original contract (as Fukudome did) meaning that their current team may be looking to move their salary to jettison what they deem as flotsam and jetsam. Perhaps some of those guys are on the list of potential FA after the 2012 season, seen here, and the trade is the way to get them here.

Right off of the bat, I’ll ignore Carlos Lee and Bobby Abreu on the list due to their defensive…um, stylings and while the name that practically jumps off that list belongs to “BJ Upton”, as Anthony Castrovince wrote in a piece last week (that deserves a full read and I’ll wait right here until you finish…OK, done?), Upton is “going to make $7.6M this year” and he’s not going to come cheap in terms of prospects, even if he’s essentially a one-year rental. The Rays are looking to stockpile their cupboard with more prospects and the Indians having to give up prime prospects AND pay Upton $7.6M in arbitration (and don’t think that the Rays are throwing money in) for one year of playing doesn’t seem like the best use of resources.

Rather, what the Indians should be doing is targeting players like the ones that AC goes on to mention in the piece:
Two options that might make a lot of sense for the Indians are Andres Torres and Angel Pagan. Both regressed in 2011 after a strong 2010. With their arbitration costs rising, Torres and Pagan could be released by the Giants (who just acquired Melky Cabrera) and Mets, respectively. If so, the Indians ought to investigate.

Pagan is particularly interesting, because of his ability in the OF and his speed…plus the fact that the Mets were rumored to be discussing non-tendering him, meaning that he could perhaps be had for a pittance. For a player that posted a 3-year cumulative line of .294 BA / .344 OBP / .441 SLG / .785 OPS from 2008 to 2011, that may be a player that could fill a hole in the Indians’ OF.

Maybe a player like Pagan is underwhelming in terms of the desire to add a middle-of-the-order RH bat, but there are other players that would (and should) interest the Tribe. Perhaps those guys aren’t players you want on long-term deals or even on incentive-laden deals, but they’re productive enough that if a team is looking to jettison them or save some money, the Indians can pick up the remainder of their salary (or a portion of it) and get some production out of these players that would dwarf what could be legitimately expected of internal options without any future commitment to them past this year.

Just like they did with Fukudome and Lowe (and even DeRosa back before the 2009 season), perhaps could do with another player in the final year of his deal who may be available this off-season and could step into the Indians’ void in the OF and lineup and represent an upgrade over the internal options without tying up money for the next few years – Marlon Byrd.

Just for some background here, Byrd is scheduled to make $6.5M in 2012, the final year of the three-year contract he inked before the 2010 season. While his 2011 (.719 OPS) was his worst season since 2006, he accumulated a .294 BA / .350 OBP / .456 SLG / .807 OPS from 2007 to 2010, with some of that time spent in the AL as a Ranger. While it is true that Byrd is not a HR hitter (21 HR combined in the last two years), he’s averaged 30 2B over the last 5 years and could represent that player that could be had for lower prospects or whose current team may kick in money on his 2012 salary that the Indians have focused on recently.

Now is Marlon Byrd going to change the balance of power in the AL Central?
No, but I could assure you that he’d be an upgrade over Zeke Carrera or even Shelley Duncan as an everyday OF. Maybe that isn’t enough for those who still have visions of that “BIG RH BAT” in their heads, but Byrd is a RH hitter that can play CF who is going to hit more than Coco Crisp (who will probably get a multi-year deal this off-season because of the dearth of OF options on the FA market) or Juan Pierre. For some perspective here, if Juan Rivera is getting $4M from the Dodgers after posting an OPS of .701 last year and a .721 OPS in 2010 and THAT’s the going rate for a marginal OF on the FA market…um yeah, maybe the FA market isn’t the place to be.

Perhaps you would prefer BJ Upton to a Marlon Byrd if the Indians are going to make a move for that one-year rental (considering that Upton’s going to earn about $1.1M more than Byrd in 2012), but consider the following lines put up by each over the last three years:
BJ Upton: 2008-2011 – 1,876 PA
.240 BA / .322 OBP / .408 SLG / .730 OPS averaging 17 HR and 22 2B per season

Marlon Byrd: 2008-2011 – 1,711 PA
.285 BA / .334 OBP / .437 SLG / .771 OPS averaging 14 HR and 35 2B per season

Maybe a guy like Upton offers more “upside”, but if we’re talking about recent performance or what can be expected for one year only in 2012, a veteran hitter like Marlon Byrd would be the preference here. Additionally, the Rays feel that they have a valuable commodity in Upton that they’ll auction off to the highest bidder (in terms of prospects) while the Cubs likely feel that they’d like to give a young player a shot in the OF and would likely move Byrd for lesser prospects or would subsidize some of the remaining money on Byrd’s contract.

Admittedly, Byrd is a flawed player who actually hits RHP better than LHP despite being a RH hitter, but in case you don’t remember, the Cubs have a new power structure in place, and the new regime has no ties to Marlon Byrd. As Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer try to get out from under some contracts and start to re-make the Cubs in a manner that will help them compete in the long-term, maybe they look at a player like Cord Phelps and throw some money in with Byrd to net a player like Phelps, who could step into their 2012 starting lineup and fill an organizational hole while the Indians deal from a position of strength (middle infield depth) to fill a 2011 hole, even if it largely represents a short-term fix.

Perhaps you think that a longer-term fix is preferable to adding a player like Byrd (or someone else of his ilk, made available on the Trade Market) and I wouldn’t disagree with that. Of course, I still think that the Indians are going to add two position players this off-season via trade, one of the “long-term” variety and one from the “band-aid” category with the “long-term” answer still coming from wherever Pujols/Prince land and the dominoes that fall as a result.

Realizing that I’ve been harping on this for a while, it is worth noting that pretty much every national outlet is reporting that the Marlins are interested in Pujols and/or Fielder (though more likely Prince) and that they can upgrade pretty significantly, despite the fact that they have Gaby Sanchez as their current 1B. Of course, as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt writes, “Even though the Marlins have a first baseman in Gaby Sanchez, he isn’t Prince Fielder. You could move him elsewhere or trade him or whatever.”

Yes…trade him. To Cleveland, for relievers. Maybe one in particular.
While I know I’ve floated this out there a couple of times, if the Indians could flip Chris Perez for Gaby Sanchez, it would represent a coup for the team in terms of moving Perez before he starts to get expensive in arbitration and finding a long-term solution at 1B. Though I’ve been told that this is pie-in-the-sky thinking and that teams don’t REALLY value closers this much, that there’s no way any team would move an under-club-control 1B for one, realize that the Blue Jays are telling folks that they have “sticker shock” at what FA closers are looking for and “may turn to the Trade Market instead”.

With SO many teams looking for closers or bullpen help (Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Giants, and…ahem, the Marlins) and in light of the fact that the Phillies just gave Jon Papelbon a FOUR YEAR DEAL worth $50M, this FA closer market is about to go bananas and the trade market for closers is going to look awfully attractive to a team that doesn’t want to tie up that much money and that many years in the closers out there on the FA market.

Ultimately, the Indians (still) need to find a couple of bats and FA probably isn’t how they’re going to add them as they can allow the Trade Market to come to them, whether that be teams looking to move veterans on the last year of their deals (like Byrd) or to take advantage of a “FA Closer Market Gone Wild” to sell high on Chris Perez to perhaps solve one of their positional holes. They have fungible pieces in the middle of their infield (and Asdrubal is not “fungible”…just trust me on that) and in their bullpen to find some trade partners to add bats.

Those bats may not come in the form of Mike Cuddyer or Derrick Lee or Carlos Pena (which means it doesn’t attract the attention of making that FA “splash”), but if recent history is any indicator, the Indians might be able to get creative on the trade market to add players like Marlon Byrd and Gaby Sanchez to their roster. If they are able to add players that upgrade their lineup significantly (and Byrd and Sanchez are both significant upgrades) and do so without locking themselves into overpaying players on the FA market, they could set themselves up for a nice run at the 2012 season and even beyond.

The Hot Stove Heats Up Early

2011-11-02T21:07:00.005-04:00

Sometime after finishing the Early Bird Special on Saturday and en route to the shuffleboard courts at Del Boca Vista (remember…I am “retired”, according to some), news broke that the Indians would be picking up the $7M option on Fausto Carmona and declining the $9M option on Grady Sizemore, deciding to pay the $500K to decline Sizemore’s 2012 option. The decision was made official on Monday, but the Indians weren’t satisfied with just those two moves before the end of October as the Tribe added Derek Lowe from Atlanta for non-prospect LHP Chris Jones, assuming only $5M of the $15M left on Lowe’s contract. And suddenly, before clocks were even turned back and with leaves still on the trees on the North Coast, the Hot Stove season was upon us, quite unexpectedly.

Thus, with a bit to get to, let’s start to take some of these things in order, starting with the option decisions that faced the Tribe with Grady and Fausto. While this topic is something that I’ve already spilled too much e-ink on already (and I’m not going to provide the links…because you’ve already read them) and with the acknowledgement that Carmona’s option was essentially guaranteed once news hit that Cookie Carrasco would get the Tommy John treatment, the big news here is that Grady Sizemore has likely played his last game as a Cleveland Indian. Sure, it’s possible that Sizemore explores his options on the FA market and ends up returning to Cleveland, but it would seem that Sizemore would intrigue enough teams this off-season (and the teams with a bigger margin for error than the Tribe) that he’s going to wind up elsewhere, particularly given the dearth of other OF options on the FA market.

While there was some thought (namely in this space) that the most desirable path to keeping Sizemore on The Reservation was a re-negotiation of that $9M option into an incentive-laden deal that would run over the course of multiple years, the old saying of that “it takes two to tango” stepped in and erased any thought of that as Sizemore’s agent essentially told the Indians that they could either pick up the $9M option or pay $500K to decline it with no middle ground to find. In a way, it’s not difficult to understand Sizemore’s angle on this as, though he’s been playing in MLB since 2005, he’s “only” earned about $24M, doing so by virtue of him signing the contract that bought out his arbitration (and a couple of FA years) lo those many years ago. While $24M is a LOT of money, it is worth providing some perspective here that TWO of Sizemore’s former teammates will make more than that in 2012 alone and it’s not hard to figure that Sizemore (being probably the best player on those teams of the mid-to-late-2000s…CC considered) figures that he’s going to see what’s out there to hopefully reclaim some of the money that he could have earned but forfeited with the deal that removed arbitration or FA as it would have been normally scheduled.

With Sizemore’s Tribe career essentially (or is it probably) over, there is no doubt that the story is a sad one as the 2012 option always looked to be an absolute lock (up until probably mid-2010) as Sizemore’s “club-friendly” contract was once seen the way that Evan Longoria’s contract is referred to – a player choosing the security of guaranteed money early in his career at the expense of being eventually paid the “going rate” when Sizemore was unquestionably one of the game’s elite talents. But the days of being considered an elite talent feel like they were a long time ago with Grady and the Indians were faced with the question of whether the $9M option represented a good deal to pay to a player that has only played in 104 games over the last two years, regardless of the pulls at the heart strings or the memories that Grady gave the team or the promise that he once so clearly represented. Of course, the answer from the organization came back with a negative and Grady will now hit the open market for the first time in his career as the Indians saved $8.5M (there was a $500K buyout on the $9M option) with one decision, which led to the obvious question of where (or if) the Tribe would use that money to improve the team for the 2012 season.

Before speculation could begin on the (still) underwhelming options out there to replace Sizemore in the OF, some of the answer as to the use of the money arrived with the news that the Indians traded for Derek Lowe, who wore out his welcome in Atlanta and was essentially jettisoned by the Braves, who essentially paid $10M for Lowe to NOT be on Atlanta’s roster next year. Sure, they got a LH pitching prospect in Chris Jones (who, it should be noted, has spent FIVE years in the organization and has not made it past Kinston), but this was pretty much a player dump for the Braves.

So, the Indians received a player that was ostensibly “dumped” by the Braves, who paid $10M (more money than the Indians will pay anyone this year, except Hafner) to NOT have him on their team…sounds great for the Tribe, right?

That’s disingenuous, of course, as the Braves’ rotation is stocked with young arms that were going to push Lowe out of the rotation and any kind of salary relief for him in Atlanta was a welcome respite. Also, Lowe had a particularly horrible final two months (6.24 ERA) as the Braves frittered away their playoff spot and Lowe’s…um, standing among the Brave faithful was somewhere around that of Brooks Conrad.

As a result of his disastrous finish, Lowe’s overall 2011 line – 5.05 ERA, 1.51 WHIP – was fairly ugly, though it bears mentioning again that Lowe’s sputtering to the finish line colored those numbers the ugly shade of brownish ick that they are. In fact, Lowe’s numbers at the All-Star Break of last year – 4.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP – were more than acceptable and looking a little deeper at his numbers over the past few years shows that Lowe’s peripherals in 2011 were fairly consistent with where they had been in the past few years, when he had experienced more success on the mound.

Just to compare Lowe’s peripherals from his 2010 (4.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and his 2011 (5.05 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) suggests that Lowe may have been a victim of bad luck as much as anything last year. If you remember that FIP and xFIP are generally pretty good indicators of HOW a pitcher pitched, independent of factors out of his control (namely, defense), take a look at the numbers for Lowe’s 2010 and 2011 seasons, with the GB% numbers thrown in for the groundball-inducing Lowe:
Lowe 2010 (4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)
3.89 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 6.32 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 58.8 GB%

Lowe 2011 (5.05 ERA, 1.51 WHIP)
3.70 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 6.59 K/9, 3.37 BB/9, 59.0 GB%

Pretty similar numbers (other than the increase in BB/9 between the two seasons) as Lowe’s peripherals have been fairly consistent, if the ERA that has resulted from those peripherals has not. Don’t take that to mean that the Indians just added a SP that’s poised to post an ERA around 4.00 as Lowe’s fastball has lost some zip and he is now 39 years old. But his 2011 may be more similar to his 2010 than his final ERA and WHIP would lead you to believe, meaning that Lowe’s “downturn” in 2011 may not have been quite as severe as you might think at first glance. Now, you may remember a similar instance of this (comparable seasons with disparate results) being pointed out when the Indians added Ubaldo at the end of July (and the jury is still out on whether Jimenez can recapture his past success that eluded him in 2011), but with Lowe, you’re really talking about a pitcher that is likely to figure into the middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation and is not being counted on to be much more than the innings-eating veteran that he’s been since 2002 instead of fronting the rotation as Ubaldo is expected to do. Perhaps it is unsettling to see the Indians now counting on TWO pitchers, attempting to resolve their issues of last year WHILE making the transition from the NL to the AL, but that’s where we’re at.

And “where we’re at” isn’t so bad in terms of the Lowe addition as, looking through the detritus that makes up the FA SP list, the Indians being able to slot Lowe into the middle-to-back-end of the rotation for what amounts to a 1-year, $5M is pretty desirable, considering the premium (in terms of dollars AND years) that is paid to SP in the FA market, deserved or undeserved. Frankly, if he can even sit at the back-end of the rotation for $5M, the Indians pulled off a coup, in terms of what they gave up for him and the alternatives on the FA market, and what each alternative would have commanded. That idea that he can “even sit at the back-end of the rotation” may ultimately look laughable depending upon whether Lowe can recapture his success (while coming back to the AL, no less) in 2012, but the Indians actually have a track record of success with these kinds of guys – Millwood, Byrd, Pavano – if you ignore the whole Jason Johnson fiasco.

But even if we’re talking about a Jason Johnson redux (though I’m not sure that we are, given Lowe’s pedigree versus that of Johnson), the Indians will have some stability to start the season in their rotation (with few truly compelling internal options that he’s ostensibly “blocking”) and will trot Lowe out there every 5th day from Opening Day. As a result of adding Lowe, the Indians won’t have to rely on the idea that they need to find the “right” guy from Day 1 from the Gomez/Huff/McAllister pile to fill out their rotation and can let those guys sort themselves out in Columbus or see if a guy like Scott Barnes can parlay his 2011 success into a strong start and leapfrog the 5th starter pile that looks to be growing in the state’s capital. If you figure that the Indians now have Masterson, Jimenez, Carmona, Lowe, and Tomlin to start out their 2012 rotation, with that quintet being known at the beginning of November, with the rest of those names slotting themselves in AAA to be the 6th, 7th, and 8th starters, the Indians at least have some sort of stability in their rotation this early in the off-season, even if that rotation is still fraught with question marks up and down the starting five.

In looking at that group of five, it is worth noting that the Indians now have 60% of their rotation made up of extreme groundball pitchers, with Lowe (2nd), Carmona (7th), and Masterson (8th) all ranked in the Top 8 among all MLB starters in terms of GB% in 2011. This focus on groundball pitchers is nothing new if you remember (or even if you don’t) the piece that appeared back in July of 2010 with that oh-so-clever title of “The Groundlings” that focused on the Indians’ penchant for stockpiling groundball pitchers. Of course, some of the guys mentioned in the 2010 piece have moved on (Laffey, Westbrook, White, Gardner, etc.), but the strategy has remained in place, and the 2012 rotation will bear that out with Masterson, Carmona, and Lowe presumably inducing groundballs at a rapid rate.

Of course, the natural offshoot from the realization that Masterson, Carmona, and Lowe are going to make the infielders a busy bunch next year is to wonder how the Indians figure on improving their infield defense, or at least maximizing it to make these groundballs that figure to be in play result in outs instead of seeing-eye singles. Certainly, one would think that Asdrubal and Kipnis figure to get the majority of the playing time in the middle of the infield, given their offensive contributions, but does this emphasis on groundball pitchers (even if it isn’t new) mean that the Indians are perhaps going to give the slick-fielding Jack Hannahan an expanded role in 2012 and beyond or that they’ll be filling their 1B hole with a glove-first 1B?

On 3B, I’d be awfully surprised if Hannahan is given the nod over Chisenhall (nice piece here on The Chiz), who has been touted as a top prospect for years, whose defense has always been at least average, particularly now that he’s been exposed to MLB and began to show signs of being a special player down the stretch in 2011. Maybe Hannahan sticks around as a defensive replacement or a 2nd Utility IF (Donald is probably the main Utility IF), but I would guess that the Indians are going to give The Chiz the majority of the playing time at 3B in 2012, even if he’s not the Opening Day starter…though I still think he is.

If you figure that The Chiz, Asdrubal, and Kipnis are going to be playing 3B, SS, and 2B for most of the 2012 season, the only real opportunity to upgrade the defense of the infield over what currently exists in the organization comes at 1B and, since the Indians were already probably in the market for a 1B, the question becomes what role defense will play in their decision, in terms of who to add at 1B. That is to say that the Tribe would be wise to not play a player out of position at 1B (though they’ve done it before…at MANY other positions) and should perhaps focus on adding a slick-fielding defender at 1B as they look to augment the 2012 roster and maximize the effectiveness of their pitching staff.

In terms of how to measure the defensive ability of 1B, you’ve heard this from me before but the current defensive metrics (UZR, dWAR, etc.) are awash with inaccuracies and red herrings (and anyone who asserts otherwise or uses WAR as the end-all, be-all statistic without mentioning the faults of defense as a component of it, particularly as a one-year metric, is engaging in overly simplistic analysis) and one of the only sources that I trust in the evaluation of players’ fielding comes by way of a composite scoring system at John Dewan’s Fielding Bible site. What it attempts to do is use various “experts” to rank players at their positions and using those rankings to compile a list of the best fielders at each position. While it may not be the most scientific method, it uses a number of qualified experts, from various walks of life, and attempts to balance out perception and reality while using both computers and the eyes of scouts and those who follow baseball very closely.

Regardless, here is the voting for the 2011 season and you can see that the 1B on the list vary from the game’s all-around elite (Pujols, Gonzalez, and Teixiera) to players (Loney and Barton) whose glove is probably their best attribute. If the Indians are truly looking to upgrade their defense at 1B, guys like Loney and Barton may be available (and may even be non-tendered) and it becomes a question of whether the Indians are willing to put up with the offensive shortcomings of Daric Barton (.590 OPS in 2011) or James Loney (average of 12 HR over the last full 4 years) for their defense?

Yes, there are other names on that list of Fielding Bible vote-getters that are available, but Carlos Pena isn’t going to come cheap (particularly once Pujols and Prince sign and those on the outside looking in are still searching for a 1B) and Casey Kotchman is about to get overpaid because of his 2011 season (which certainly looks like an offensive outlier), meaning that the Indians are in a difficult position when it comes to finding the 1B that they are still likely to add. Maybe a player like Daniel Murphy or Ike Davis (who rated highly in last year’s voting) from the Mets becomes available, but 1B remains a major question going forward this off-season.

That said, one of the questions coming into the off-season was answered very quickly with the addition of Lowe to fill out the rotation as the Tribe can cross one “need” off of their off-season “To-Do” list. But needs still remain and 1B is just one of them as the Indians now definitely have to fill their hole in the OF, particularly given the Sizemore is unlikely to find his way back to the North Coast. Hopefully, they get creative again as signing an “on-base” guy like Coco Crisp or (worse) Juan Pierre that doesn’t really get on base for $4M or $5M is terrifying to me to man CF, particularly if they’re keeping Brantley (another “on-base” guy who hasn’t gotten on base in his career to date) to patrol LF.

Speaking of Brantley, is anyone else a little worried by Pluto passing along that the Indians don’t really like Brantley’s defense in CF in a couple of his Sunday columns (which basically come directly from the Indians) in terms of accepting Brantley as the new CF?

Though it seems that LF can be “found” by every other team in MLB, everyone knows that the average production from LF in the AL was a .702 OPS, right…which is EXACTLY what Brantley’s OPS in 2011 was?

This idea that LF just fall out of trees in MLB may not be too accurate in this “new” era of MLB and I don’t think I need to remind anyone how it went the last time the Indians decided to go out on the FA market for a LF…OK, I will.
“He” went by the name of Dellichaels…

Which brings it all back to Sizemore as declining Grady’s option may have been the prudent move (and spare me this argument of removing all of the emotion from it), but the move to “replace” Grady is ten times more important to the fate of the 2012 team. We know that some of the money “saved” will be spent on Lowe’s 2012 salary, but what’s important now is that the Indians find a suitable solution for CF/LF while hoping that Grady doesn’t don his cape once again in 2012, when he figures to wear a new uniform.

Truthfully, that’s the scary thing in this (if you want to call it that) and maybe the Clevelander in me can’t shake the idea that Grady’s going to head off to San Francisco to thrive in a Giants’ uniform or go to the North Side of Chicago to make Theo look like a genius or (gasp) take his talents to South Beach to join the President of the Grady Fan Club, Mr. Ozzie Guillen, to re-assert himself among the game’s elite talents while the MLB world wonders “how could the Indians have let this guy go?”

Again, that’s the Clevelander in me – expecting the worst and often realizing it – and perhaps putting too much stock in those three weeks when Sizemore came back in May of this past year and was ripping extra-base hits all over the place, but with a gaping hole still existing in the OF, it will be interesting to see how the Indians approach the needs that still remain for this team.

As we’ve found out, Antonetti acts quickly and decisively and while other teams were still making option decisions, the Indians were shoring up their rotation and spending the money “saved” by declining Sizemore’s option. Not content to let the market dictate their moves, the Indians of 2012 is in clearer focus today, even if some blurry spots still remain. The Hot Stove is already kicking some heat off and, in what figures to be another dark, cold winter on the North Coast (particularly sports-related), that qualifies as good news.

As for me, “retirement” (or at least a “step back” and less regimented posting) is suiting me just fine. Now, if you’ll excuse me…I have to go back to work on this Tom Collins and my tan…

An Off-Season Road-Map on A Lazy Sunday

2011-10-02T05:00:00.000-04:00

The 2011 season is in the books and while the season recaps will continue to pour out, let’s cast our gaze forward as the Indians prepare for the most important off-season in recent memory as they attempt to maintain the momentum that their 2011 season got rolling. Additionally, they now find themselves in a position where they’re trying to start to line some of these building blocks up to form a foundation that will last through just the end of 2013, perhaps embarking on the extended run of playoff contention that eluded them in the mid-to-late-2000s.

The only thing that is certain at this point is that the Indians’ coaching staff will have a decidedly different look at Tim Tolman will not be back as bench coach (as we all wish him the best) and Sandy Alomar moves from the 1st Base Coaching Box to the role of Bench Coach…for now. Certainly Sandy may be up for the White Sox job, but the announcement that Alomar will be promoted to bench coach certainly has the feel of the Indians attempting to let Sandy know how well-thought-of he is within the organization if the White Sox were to come calling with a job offer that wasn’t that of the manager. As for who will replace Sandy at 1B, Mike Sarbaugh would figure to be the leading candidate to emerge from the Minor Leagues (where he has dominated…if a Minor League manager can dominate) to work with the group of players that he’s won titles with for the last three years. Seriously, Sarbaugh won titles in Akron in 2009 and in Columbus in 2010 and 2011…essentially with a good number of the same players that figure to populate the Indians’ roster in 2012 and beyond. So, keeping him in the fold (and adding him to the parent club coaching staff) would be the logical move to provide some continuity for what is still a very young team.

But the Tolman/Alomar/Sarbaugh move is not the big one of the week as Tim Belcher announced that he would not be returning as the Tribe pitching coach in 2012. To me, pitching coaches are always a difficult thing to truly judge as Masterson made HUGE leaps forward and Carrasco and Tomlin showed signs of promise, but Carmona remained an enigma and Huff seemed to regress after spending some time on the parent club. Certainly, the Masterson evolution trumps pretty much everything else and it’s more than just a good thing that Belcher will remain in the organization, but the Indians now find themselves in need of a pitching coach.

One obvious move would be to promote current bullpen coach Scott Radinsky to the position of pitching coach and bringing Ruben Niebla up from his pitching coach post in Columbus to handle the duties of the bullpen coach for 2012. Just as it would be with keeping Sarbaugh around this young group of players, expanding the roles of Radinsky (who did a GREAT job with the relievers this year) and Niebla would give the players some level of familiarity with the coaches. If the Indians were able to convince the Diamondbacks to allow Charles Nagy (who is Arizona’s pitching coach) to make a lateral move because of his ties to Cleveland, he would be another name to consider as he was the Clippers’ pitching coach in 2010 and would, again, have a working knowledge of the young Tribe arms. Then again, they could go off the board and bring in somebody completely different and while that would represent a sharp departure from everything that they’ve ever done, it is not outlandish to think that they could go for someone whose name is not at the front (or back) of anyone’s mind right now.

Ultimately, the coaching staff will sort itself out (and talented players have a way of making coaching staffs look good), but with the season behind us, let’s take a look at the moves that one man would make in this off-season in an attempt to position the Tribe for contention in 2012 and beyond. Much of this is not new ground if you’ve been coming around these parts, but I thought I’d put it all in one place, seeing as how talk will now turn to “what the Indians need to do/should do” with the off-season upon us. Again, some of these are ideas that you’ve seen before, but hang in there as they’ve been fleshed out a little more and “The Plan” (dare I use that term) builds up from the first suggestion to the last.

Of course, it’s easy to say “they need a RH bat at 1B and a veteran starter”, but if you’ve been coming around here for any stretch of time you know that…well, I’m not one to simply deal in these vagaries. Let’s get specific and attempt to deal in reality with some of these proposed moves. If you want to call this reality a set of “ground rules”, I attempted to stay within that $70M payroll number that’s been predicted for the team and have attempted not to go all “ESPN Trade Machine” with trade suggestions, giving up players of value to net something close to equal value because…well, Luis Valbuena, Mitch Talbot, Trevor Crowe, and Beau Mills aren’t attractive to anyone.
Yes, even if you put them in a package.

Nevertheless, here is the off-season “road-map” (if you will) for the Indians heading into 2012:
Pick up Carmona’s option, Re-Negotiate Sizemore’s option
Apparently, the Indians will have 3 days after the final game of the World Series to make these decisions, but this is something I wrote about not too long ago, so excuse the liberal cut-and-paste, but here’s where I come down on each:
Fausto Carmona
For some hard numbers, consider that in 2010, Javier Vazquez posted a 5.32 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP for the Yankees. After that season, he signed a 1-year, $7M deal with the Marlins for the 2011 season. Certainly, Vazquez’s 2009 with the Braves (2.87 ERA) played a role in the Marlins’ decision to ink Vazquez as the Marlins likely thought that Vazquez would benefit from a change in scenery (out of Gotham) and could find his former self, but if Carmona’s 2011 option is for $7M, doesn’t it stand to reason that similar demand could exist for Carmona this off-season?

With the embarrassing dearth of starting pitching (particularly starting pitching available on the FA market) league-wide, these players are going to get more money than they’re worth. That may not be telling any secrets, but just to keep the examples flying from last off-season, Brad Penny got a $3M deal last off-season from the Tigers after pitching only 55 innings with the Cards in 2010 and Brandon Webb got $3M in guaranteed money from Texas last off-season having pitched FOUR MLB innings the previous two seasons.

Going further, given some of the concerns about Fausto’s conditioning, it could probably be argued that picking up this option may not be the best idea, in terms of motivation for Carmona, but looking at the other options on the FA SP market (is Edwin Jackson or Bruce Chen or Jeff Francis much more appealing…and what kind of money/years does it take to get those guys?) this off-season and with the idea that the Indians probably shouldn’t count on Gomez/Huff/McAllister to take up TWO spots in the rotation, the Indians are best served turning their head, pinching their nose, and picking up Carmona’s option for 2012, given that it’s basically a one-year deal and the final year that these options for Carmona aren’t patently outrageous (it’s $9M next year and $12M in 2014) in terms of guaranteed money.

Grady Sizemore
Though I’ve been floating the idea of renegotiating Sizemore’s deal for some time, Pluto says in his piece a couple of weekends ago that he would “offer Sizemore a contract with a $3 million base and lots of incentives. It can even be hooked into a lucrative long-term deal if he plays 120 games, or some other indication of durability.” Let’s use this as a starting point and get a little creative with a possible solution that allows the Indians to minimize some risk, keep Sizemore on the team with reachable incentives that become lucrative for Grady, and find some common ground here.

As a starting point, the Indians would guarantee Sizemore’s $9M option, but make it payable over 3 years with those games-played-based incentives that Pluto suggested built in so Sizemore (if healthy) could earn a salary at a rate commensurate with what a healthy Sizemore would earn on the open market. Remember, they did this with Pavano a couple of years ago, with incentives tied to innings pitched building upon a base salary as Pavano’s health was in question and the Indians’ creativity is what brought Pavano onto The Reservation.

Regardless, follow me on this:
2012 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $6M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $1.5M for 80 games played
Another additional $1.5M for 100 games played
Another additional $1.5M for 120 games played
A final additional $1.5M for 140 games played
In this scenario, he’s guaranteed $3M in 2012 and could earn up to the $9M if he plays in 140 games, earning healthy bumps in pay as he plays in games throughout the season.

2013 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $8M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $2M for 80 games played
Another additional $2M for 100 games played
Another additional $2M for 120 games played
A final additional $2M for 140 games played
Again, Sizemore has that $3M guaranteed with the ability to earn $11M if he hits that 140 game plateau.

2014 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $10M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $2.5M for 80 games played
Another additional $2.5M for 100 games played
Another additional $2.5M for 120 games played
A final additional $2.5M for 140 games played
You’re getting the point here, as Grady will still get the $3M guaranteed (the final 1/3 of that $9M club option) in 2014 with the possibility that he could earn $13M if he stayed healthy enough to play in 140 games.

Again, you can read the whole piece again as I’m truthfully just cutting-and-pasting here as I’ll stand by these thoughts on both Carmona and Sizemore, whose club options in their extensions once seemed like such a deal.

Speaking of club options in extensions (that hopefully the team doesn’t regret) for young players…
Extend Asdrubal Cabrera & Justin Masterson
Again, this is a topic that I hit on very recently (last week), but these are the offers I’m putting on the table to these two, with the rationale behind each extension offer contained in the linked piece and the deals looking a little something like this:
Asdrubal Carrera Contract Extension
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M
2015 - $12M club option ($1M buyout)
2016 - $13M club option ($2M buyout)

Justin Masterson Contract Extension
2012 - $3.5M
2013 -$5.5M
2014 - $7.7M
2015 - $12M
2016 - $13M club option ($0.245M buyout)
2017 - $13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

All of the rationale for the years and the numbers above are in this piece…but really the first two “topics” on Carmona/Sizemore and Cabrera/Masterson are really just handling internal business and nothing new around these parts.

As for augmenting the roster externally, how about a solution for that 1B problem?

Trade Chris Perez to the Marlins for Gaby Sanchez
This is something that’s been alluded to in the past, but with Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols hitting the FA market this off-season and with the Red Sox and the Yankees not really in the market for a 1B, the final destinations for Prince and Pujols could be fairly interesting. While neither will land at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, the idea that the team that they sign with could have an “extra” 1B to use as trade bait is the rationale for Gaby Sanchez even being available. Again, the rationale for this trade idea can be found here, but Fielder and Pujols are essentially an upgrade over ANY team’s current 1B situation and there is always one team in MLB that’s ready to make that “splash” in FA that nobody sees coming. For whatever reason, the inclusion of the Marlins in rumors about Prince/Pujols reminds me of the Nationals’ pursuit of Jayson Werth last year and with the Marlins moving to a new stadium, with a new manager, and a new name (yep, they’re the Miami Marlins now), it is not outside the realm of possibility that one of them…um, takes his talent to South Beach.

If they did, the Indians should act quickly to go after Sanchez, a 28-year-old 1B with consistent, if not outstanding, numbers over the last two years. He’s a RH bat that is under club control through the 2015 season and isn’t even arbitration-eligible until after next season. He’s an average defender who has lacked the power of a “traditional” 1B, but in light of the internal alternatives for the Tribe, Sanchez’s steady bat in the lineup would be a major upgrade…and it would represent more than just a band-aid at 1B. Whether the Marlins would consider a one-for-one swap for C. Perez remains to be seen, but Perez is about to get more expensive via arbitration and if the Indians are looking to pare some money off of their payroll to make additions via FA, moving Perez for a league-minimum player like Sanchez makes sense.

Perhaps Ozzie Guillen wouldn’t have any interest in adding Perez after seeing him up close over the last couple of years (and Perez was not good against the White Sox this year), but if we know Ozzie…he doesn’t do well with unsettled bullpens. With Leo Nunez (or whatever his name really is) doesn’t figure to come back to the Marlins in 2012 (or even if he does), the Marlins could be in the market for bullpen help and the Indians may be their trade partner, particularly if Florida…um, Miami is willing to add salary, even if that salary is just for a closer.

Maybe it takes more for the Indians to pry Sanchez away from the Marlins and maybe Prince/Pujols end up elsewhere, making this entire concept a moot point, but the Indians should follow the bouncing ball that is the “Prince & Pujols Show” this off-season to see if they can find the 1B that they so desperately need via trade, acquiring a player whose spot may be taken by either Fielder or Pujols.

As for moving C. Perez, this is not a new suggestion in these parts, and I’d take Pestano and insert him into the 9th inning role, with Sipp and Smith sliding back into the 7th and 8th inning roles with the idea that one of (some of) the young arms that stand at the precipice of Cleveland can fill in the bottom rungs of the bullpen ladder.

Trade Rafael Perez, Jeanmar Gomez, and Cord Phelps, to the Mets for Jon Niese
Since most of the talk of adding to the starting rotation for 2011 has focused on adding a “veteran” starting pitcher, the usual suspects in the scrap heap start to make their way onto the Indians’ radar…at least according to most reports that come out. However, after White and Pomz were traded, there’s little question that the Indians’ rotational depth was affected and the effect of moving both White and Pomz is not something that’s going away anytime soon…unless Zach McAllister and/or Scott Barnes really assert themselves into the parent club’s plans to be more than the back-end-of-the-rotation fodder. Additionally, with the uncertainty that Carmona will be back after his 2012 season and with the outside chance that Tomlin turns back into a pumpkin, the Indians should be aggressive in targeting some younger pitchers that may be undervalued by their current teams, but who are under club control for a couple of years, even if it means acquiring arms that may be approaching arbitration.

As you can see above, I’m not talking trading for the Wandy Rodriguezes and Ricky Nolascos of the world, as I’d prefer to see the Indians target a starting pitcher (preferably LH) that actually is a “veteran” starter – in that they’ve logged significant innings in MLB – but who may be available because of their recent performance that has underwhelmed their current team and make an aggressive push for them. Pitchers like Toronto’s Brett Cecil and the Mets’ Jon Niese fit this profile as neither will be confused for front-end-of-the-rotation arms and each has thrown nearly 400 MLB IP. That may not be a “veteran” starter in the truest sense of the word, but the Indians need to add a piece that doesn’t simply represent an option to throw into the 5th starter mix in Goodyear. Rather, if they’re serious about making a move in 2012 (and, more importantly, PAST 2012), adding an arm to the middle-of-the-rotation would improve the team dramatically.

Since a friend of mine (who has an awfully good handle on the Blue Jays) passed along word to me that Brett Cecil would represent a slight upgrade or maybe comparative value to Dave Huff, asserting that Cecil’s 2010 season was the outlier, not his 2011 season, I’ll put the focus on acquiring Niese here. The focus falls to Niese mainly because he – like Cecil – is LH, under club control for a while, and may be seen as an ancillary part to their current team. By that I mean that Niese’s 2011 line of a 4.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and a 89 ERA+ is underwhelming and since it mirrors his 2010 season (4.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 94 ERA+), perhaps the Mets feel that this is what Niese is and may make him available for the right package.

The reason that a player like Niese would be intriguing would be his age (he turns 25 next month), his ability to generate K (286 K in his last 331 IP over the last two seasons), and the fact that he’s LH…a “quality” that is currently lacking in the Indians’ pitching depth, outside of Scotty Barnes and, to a lesser degree, Dave Huff. If you look deeper at Niese’s numbers, he posted the 17th best FIP (3.36) in the NL among pitchers with more than 150 IP and actually finished higher than that among the same group with a 3.28 xFIP, 10th best among NL pitchers with more than 150 IP. His 3.14 K/BB rate ranked 14th among NL starters (just ahead of Matt Garza) and his 7.89 K/9 rate ranked 16th among NL starters...this time just behind Ian Kennedy.

So…why would the Mets be willing to trade a 24-year-old LHP with those numbers?
Well, in some regards, Niese’s last two years are merely fair – in terms of the mid-4.00 ERA and the WHIP over 1.40 – meaning that Niese may be undervalued in some circles. Additionally, with the Mets needing to make some very difficult decisions about their future, they may be looking to add multiple pieces and parts that factor into their future. The Mets’ bullpen needs a complete overhaul and 2B has been an absolute disaster for them, so perhaps the Indians (with bullpen depth and a glut of 2B) could provide them with some pieces in Rafael Perez and Cord Phelps. If you look back at the initial trade proposal, I included Gomez in there in give the Mets a young arm for their rotation that they would control for longer than Niese and who may see his numbers improve in the NL.

Though this may seem like quite a bit to give up (to some) for a pitcher that had a 4.40 ERA in the NL last year, realize (again) that the only way to get value on the Trade Market is to give up value. Rafael Perez is still an unquestionably valuable reliever and Phelps’ performance in AAA this year suggests that he simply needs an extended opportunity to thrive in MLB at 2B (something that isn’t happening in Cleveland) with Gomez’s youth (still 23) offsetting some of the concerns that exist about his inability to strike hitters out.

Maybe the Mets have their eye on guys like Brantley (they need a long-term solution in the OF) or Marson (they need a long-term solution at C) or perhaps the Mets would prefer Donald over Phelps…and I don’t think the inclusion of any of those players is outrageous. Adding an arm like Niese – under club control through the 2015 season – is the kind of long-term move (that improves their short-term outlook) that the Indians should be looking at. Maybe the name isn’t Jonathan Niese and maybe the Mets aren’t the match, but the Indians’ rotation has question marks past Justin Masterson and a team that is looking to contend in 2012 and beyond needs to have more rotational answers than question marks.

Sign Mike Cuddyer to a 3-year, $30M deal
Wait…you’ve already kept Sizemore and added Sanchez, what is this about?
Frankly, I’m not counting on Sizemore to be completely healthy to start the season, nor am I counting on Hafner to be healthy throughout the season. So while signing Cuddyer when all of the positions seem to be spoken for looks like overkill, the idea to sign him would essentially provide insurance for Sizemore and/or Hafner being hurt in 2012.
Is that a big insurance policy that you’re willing to pay a premium for?

Absolutely, and the Indians need to approach this off-season to almost plan for either Sizemore and/or Hafner NOT being available, despite the money that’s going to be owed to them. As for where this Cuddyer money would come from (remember, I’m trying to stay within the $70M payroll number), the Indians would take the money saved by re-negotiating Sizemore’s contract (savings of $6M in 2012 if they re-negotiate as outlined above) trading Chris Perez and Rafael Perez and their assumed arbitration numbers (let’s say a savings of $6M combined) to spread out in a couple of ways. First, there would be the additional money for 2012 added to the Cabrera and Masterson extensions to buy out those FA years and plus what they’ll pay Gaby Sanchez and Jon Niese in their pre-arbitration years to come up with enough money for this contract for Cuddyer. Essentially, it hinges on re-negotiating the Sizemore deal and moving Perez’s assumed 2012 salary, but if you figure that Hafner’s money will come off of the books after 2012, this year is the only one in which the Indians would have to get creative to afford a deal like this for Cuddyer.

Why add Cuddyer?
Well, Cuddyer had the 23rd best wOBA (.354) in the AL in 2011 and posted the 30th best OPS (.806) in the AL in 2011 and played 1B, RF, 2B, and DH. For a team in need of a flexible bat and a RH bat to sit in the middle of their lineup, Cuddyer looks like a perfect fit. Over the last 3 years, Cuddyer has posted a .276 BA / .341 OBP / .465 SLG / .806 OPS / 117 OPS+ while averaging 22 HR, 33 2B, and 5 2B while averaging 150 games played per year. Of course it is worth noting that he is 32 years old and two full seasons from his tremendous (32 HR, .867 OPS) 2009 campaign, but his numbers since 2009 actually compare pretty favorably with the rest of MLB. Sure, he’s not in the upper echelon of players (much less hitters) in MLB, but he’s a steady player who has performed well and is likely to continue that consistent performance for the next couple of years.

Will he cost more than he’s probably worth on the FA market?
Yep, but do you want to know why the abysmal season from Matt LaPorta is so disappointing?
Because this is what a 20-HR RH bat costs on the FA market and with Hafner’s contract expiring after 2012 (I know he has that option) and with so many question marks regarding Sizemore’s health and with Choo under club control through only 2013, adding a versatile player like Cuddyer fits what the Indians need – a RH bat that can sit near the middle-of-the-lineup and move around the diamond as needed. Additionally, once Hafner moves on after the 2012 season, Cuddyer could slot into a quasi-DH role with his versatility giving different players breaks from the field by allowing them to get days off or switch spots with Cuddyer at DH. Essentially, having Cuddyer as the “DH” wouldn’t kill the roster flexibility in the way that Hafner has as Cuddyer’s ability to play all around the diamond would give the Tribe some much-needed breathing room at the DH spot…in 2013.

Would some of the “top-shelf” FA look better than Cuddyer?
Of course, but in this Brave New World of MLB, the Indians aren’t going to sit at the table with the Fielder and Pujols to crunch numbers if they’re going to venture out on the FA market and that “second-tier” of players is the top-end of where they realistically get to choose. It is true that Cuddyer probably projects to be a Type A FA (refresher on this and draft compensation here), meaning that the Indians would sacrifice a draft pick to sign him. However, the Indians are going to pick 15th in next year’s draft, which means that their 1st Round Pick would be protected if they signed a Type A FA (which Cuddyer is) and would sacrifice a 2nd Round Pick instead.
So, I suppose that final lost weekend in Detroit was good for something…

Of course, the question is bound to come up in all of this player movement that if the Tribe renegotiates Grady’s deal AND adds Sanchez AND adds Cuddyer where that leaves Mike Brantley in all of this. To that I would say that despite the fact that the Indians aren’t thrilled with Brantley’s play in CF, he would slot over there if Sizemore didn’t start the season in MLB or if he got injured and, if Sizemore was healthy, Brantley would move into the 4th OF role. It’s probably wouldn’t be a strict 4th OF role as (again) Cuddyer would be signed to be moving around quite a bit around the diamond and, frankly, Brantley’s 2011 season was less than inspiring.

There you have it and I’m not going to include the notion of adding a veteran reliever at some point because it would be a minor move. That said, if the Indians do in fact move TWO relievers out via trade in the Perezes and if you assume that Durbin isn’t coming back, the Indians are going to need some sort of a veteran middle reliever to sit there and eat up innings, unless that’s what Frank Herrmann is going to do…or maybe even Mitch Talbot in a long-man role.

When it’s all said and done, the roster would have much more balance in terms of handedness and the bench would provide some exceptional depth in case of (or is it when) injury or injuries occur:
C – Santana
1B – Sanchez
2B – Kipnis
SS – Cabrera
3B – Chisenhall
RF – Choo
CF – Sizemore
LF – Cuddyer
DH – Hafner
Bench – Marson
Bench – Donald
Bench – Duncan
Bench – Brantley
You’ll notice that Jack Hannahan is missing from this group but with Donald on hand and with Cuddyer’s versatility, there simply isn’t room for Hannahan, as fantastic as he has been this season and as much as he provides that insurance for The Chiz going forward. However, if the Indians are really looking to upgrade their roster, there will be some casualties and, in working this up, Hannahan was felled.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation would also be more balanced in terms of handedness with the addition of Niese and, though it would seem that the strength of the team (the bullpen) has been compromised by moving the Perezes out via trade, the remaining arms have more than enough talent to remain successful. Of course, those are famous last words (expecting success out of any mix of bullpen arms), but if Vinnie Pestano and Tony Sipp can arrive in the manner they did this year, it provides some optimism that players like Hagadone or Putnam or CC Lee could follow on this path. Regardless,
SP – Masterson
SP – Jimenez
SP – Niese
SP – Carmona
SP – Tomlin
Closer – Pestano
RP – Sipp
RP – Smith
RP – Reliever
RP – Hagadone
RP – Putnam
RP – Herrmann
There you have it, that’s one man’s plan for the off-season…and in less than 5,000 words!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to step away from this place for a while.
After years of putting my thoughts to paper (so to speak), I’m going to take some time off from thinking about and writing about the Indians. I’ve been dropping 10,000 words a week on you for long enough…and thanks to you for working your way through the thousands of words every couple of days for the last few years searching for some sort of analysis and meaning.

It’s entirely possible that I poke my head out every so often with thoughts on the comings and goings of the Tribe (so subscribe to the RSS feed or the Twitter feed if you want to be alerted as such) and while I don’t figure to disappear completely, the time has arrived for me to take a big step back from this endeavor and fully move into the true joys of my life, my wonderful wife (you may know her as The DiaBride), who amazingly put up with this “hobby” as long as she did, and my burgeoning family on The Reservation.

See you when I see you and…Go Tribe!

Closing the Book on 2011

2011-09-28T21:47:00.007-04:00

The 2011 season is officially in the books and, though the obits were written weeks ago (as we’ve all been enjoying our Sawxenfreude since then), it bears worth looking back at the individuals and units that made up the 2011 season if only to take one last look behind us before focusing on what lies ahead. As exciting and hopeful as the 2011 season has been, the team was ultimately done in by injuries and a lack of talent as they had their opportunity to stand up to the Tigers and summarily dispatched into 2nd place. Again, there’s no question that injuries play a role here, in that if a player was injured and it contributed to a disappointing season but…well, it’s still a disappointing season as the Indians started out so fast and were unable to stay afloat once the ship began taking on water.

But that’s the overview and perhaps it’s more interesting to look at the 2011 Indians’ players and units individually. Though I generally loathe the “Report Card” approach to any particular sports team and their season, it is worth examining the various pieces and parts of the 2011 Indians to see the positives, the negatives, and the aspects of the team that represented a mixed bag. For my own sanity, I mainly focused on the players that played a vital (or semi-vital) role in the season, so you won’t find another shovelful of dirt being heaped on Austin Kearns, nor will you find an analysis of the contributions of Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Thome. Though both in-season acquisitions certainly played a role in the season, neither figures to be back nor their additions felt like “too little, too late” when they arrived…and that’s exactly what they were.

That said, there’s plenty to get to and we’ll start off (as always) on “The Bright Side of Life”…
Bright Spots
Justin Masterson
Coming into the season, there was more than a small contingent of “experts” (Tribe-related or not) that thought that Justin Masterson was simply biding his time in the Indians’ rotation before he moved back to the back-end-of-the-bullpen, a role he played to some critical acclaim in Boston. Now, 216 innings later, Masterson finishes his 2011 season having established himself as a bona-fide front-of-the-rotation innings eater whose numbers hold up well against the majority of AL starters. His ranks among AL starters in ERA (10th), FIP (10th), HR/9 (1st), GB% (2nd) and even the not-as-applicable to the sinkerballing Masterson K/BB (23rd) provide some hope that Masterson has found his groove as a Starter. Whether the adjustments he made were mechanical or mental, since the beginning of August 2010 he has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over his last 272 2/3 IP as a starter. Though his total inning count in 2011 ended a little too high for my comfort level – in terms of an increase over his 2010 total, though he is a little older than most SP breaking into the rotation as he’ll be 27 next March – he certainly has the look of an innings-eating horse that the Indians can factor in at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future…and hopefully past that.

Asdrubal Cabrera
Speaking of guys that I’d like to see stick around past the foreseeable future, Asdrubal Cabrera’s 2011 was the leap forward that we had all been waiting for since his 2007 season. He was (largely) injury free as he tallied nearly 600 PA and, while his pace at the plate slowed as the season went on (probably because his shoulders were sore from carrying the team), he showed the all-around ability that he had only shown in glimpses prior to this year. While there is some concern that this year will be the outlier in his career, with Asdrubal healthy and effective in the middle-of-the-diamond and at or near the middle-of-the-lineup, the Indians need to ensure that Asdrubal sticks around past his age-27 season, as his current club control currently runs through. From his highlight-reel defensive plays and his proficiency at the plate (2 fewer HR than Adrian Gonzalez), Cabrera finally broke out in 2011 with the hope that he’s just now scratching the surface not being an outrageous thought.

Carlos Santana
As fantastic as Cabrera’s season was and as much as Asdrubal’s 2011 felt like it was just a harbinger of things to come, how about a 27 HR, 34 2B, .810 OPS season for the 25-year-old Santana in his first full year in MLB? Given that Victor Martinez had a 23 HR, 38 2B, .851 OPS season as a 25-year-old in his first full year in MLB in 2004, the start of Santana’s career certainly causes optimism for The Axe Man. While people can moan about Santana’s BA, know that Santana’S .264 BABIP was 8th lowest AL (which can affect BA pretty profoundly as BABIP is the acronym for Batting Average on Balls in Play), which means that your precious back-of-the-baseball-card number will rise for Santana going forward. It is true that Santana struck out too much last year – which is odd because of his sterling K/BB numbers in the Minors and even as a member of the Tribe last year, when he walked 37 times and struck out 29 times in 46 games in 2010 – but it is easy to forget that Santana still has fewer career PA than Matt LaPorta and Mike Brantley…just to name two players. Though Santana’s defense (wherever he plays) is a…um, work in progress, his bat has continued to thump as advertised. For a team in need of middle-of-the-order presence going forward, Santana figures to settle into the lineup and provide the same stabilizing force that another Venezuelan catcher who also wore #41 did in the last incarnation of a contending Indians team.

Jason Kipnis
From the moment that Jason Kipnis arrived in Cleveland, you could see that he was a special player. From his bat control to his hustle to his power (.532 SLG) to the infectious energy that he brought to the field and the basepaths, Kipnis stood out as a prospect whose hype seemed to be justified. With Kipnis unfortunately missing some time with his side issue that kept his plate appearance total down, Kipnis ranks 16th in the AL in OPS with players accumulating more than 125 PA. His .857 OPS puts him just ahead of Michael Young and Dustin Pedroia on the AL leaderboard and, while those two established veterans had more plate appearances, isn’t that the kind of rarified air that seems possible for Kipnis? Sure, his defense may still be a bit of a work in progress (not that he’s alone in that regard on this team), but his bat has come as advertised as he knocked out XBH in 12.1% of his plate appearances. Maybe that doesn’t mean anything to you, but realize that only Adrian Beltre (12.4% of his PA resulted in an XBH) and Brett Lawrie (12.3% XBH/PA) bested Kipnis in the AL among players with more than 125 PA. It’s certainly possible that Kipnis experiences the same second-year struggles that befall so many MLB players, but Kipnis’ emergence from the Minors gives hope that the revolving door that has been 2B just stopped spinning.

Bullpen Bridge – Pestano, Sipp, and Smith
This has been written about before in this space, but the 7th and 8th inning arms that provided the bridge between the starting pitchers and the 9th inning probably kept the 2011 Indians in more games than any team in recent memory. Paced by Pestano, Sipp, and Smith, the Indians’ success in the bullpen was largely paced by the ability to keep the opposition at bay while the Indians’ offense was given the opportunity to cobble together enough runs for a win. Starting with Vinnie Pestano, who struck out ONE OUT OF EVERY THREE batters he faced and who ranked 4th in the AL among relievers with a 12.02 K/9 rate, which is actually the highest rate ever recorded by an Indians pitcher (minimum 50 innings), the Indians FINALLY had a homegrown late-inning reliever who performed over the course of a whole year (sorry, Jensen Lewis) that potentially projects as a possible closer. All three relievers (Pestano, Sipp, Smith) rank among the 18 lowest relievers in terms of WHIP in 2011 and Joe Smith’s .521 OPS against put him 4th among AL relievers with more than 40 IP. Tony Sipp proved himself to be much more than a LOOGY or match-up LHP as he was equally effective against hitters regardless of which side of the plate they stood on (.665 OPS against vs. LH, .664 OPS against vs. RH), giving birth to the idea that the Indians could perhaps use this trio as the backbone of the back-end of their bullpen for a while. Certainly, the inning counts for each were high and relievers are volatile from one year to the next, but each proved themselves as worthy of consideration for 8th and 9th inning roles in 2012.

Bench Bunch – Hannahan, Donald, Duncan, and Marson
After suffering through off-season after off-season combing through the scrap-heap pile of 4th OF, RH bats for the bench, and Futility IF, could the Indians finally have succeeded in filling out the final spots of their roster internally? While I’m not going to fall victim to the idea that any of these guys should be handed a starting spot in 2012 (Duncan had a .728 OPS on August 31st and The Lesson of Karim Garcia applies) as each has their strong points (notably defense for Hannahan and Marson) and weak points (defense for Duncan) that need to be considered. But after living through Sal Fasano (not that I minded Sal), Mike Rouse, Tony Graffanino, and the like, it was comforting to see this quartet step into roles (adequately) when injuries or the ineffectiveness of others necessitated their use. Truthfully, I’mot sure if all of these guys come back, depending upon what the Tribe does this off-season, as Hannahan and Donald are somewhat redundant in the positions that they play if varying in their skill sets and I’m interested in finding a 4th OF who does not have a “C” an “R” and an “E” in their last name (in that order), but the Indians FINALLY have some players that can fill out their bench without a massive drop-off in production and without having to unnecessarily spend money on auxiliary parts.

A Little Good, A Little Bad
Josh Tomlin
As much as I’d love to put Tomlin in that first grouping, I’m not as enamored with the Quality Start Streak as some seem to be and see Tomlin’s season as a whole as a success, but not one without red flags. Obviously, Tomlin is a great story – a largely-overlooked late draft pick that moved his way up the system who achieved success in his first go-around in MLB, last year and (more acutely) to start this year. He arrived to the All-Star Break with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 4.64 K/BB ratio, mentioned in a Sports Illustrated article about the emergence of the cut fastball, and riding high in the Tribe rotation. Unfortunately, Tomlin’s first-half success would not continue into the second-half as his 5.26 ERA reflected his propensity for the long-ball with 9 HR allowed in his final 8 starts. That’s not to say that Tomlin will never achieve the success that he did to start 2011…it just may never be that level of success. He’s not going to stop his approach of pounding the strike zone and, as the league adjusted to him, it is now on him to continue to adapt and evolve as a pitcher. Whether he has the repertoire to succeed as he adapts remains to be seen as he could easily settle into a Paul Byrdian role on this team around some other hard-throwers in the rotation…and there wouldn’t be anything wrong with that. If Tomlin is filling out the Tribe rotation and throwing quality innings and challenging hitters, he’s a tremendous find and a needed surprise for the Indians. As long as the assumption doesn’t exist that he’s going to be a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP (as he was for the first 2 months of the season), I’ll take Tomlin – warts and all – in the Tribe rotation for 2012 and beyond.

Fausto Carmona
Since any talk of Carmona is going to center around his option, here’s the piece that I wrote on the options for Carmona (and Sizemore), with this passage from that piece being applicable in the review of Carmona’s season:
April 7th through May 8th - 7 starts
2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30 K, 14 BB with a .541 OPS against in 48 2/3 IP

May 13th through June 26th – 9 starts
7.99 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 26 K, 18 BB with a .927 OPS against in 50 2/3 IP

July 18th through August 22nd – 7 starts
2.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26 K, 13 BB with a .673 OPS against in 47 IP

August 27th through Tuesday – 6 starts
7.23 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 21 K, 14 BB with a .866 OPS against in 37 1/3 IP

Again, that doesn’t include the game in Cincinnati on July 2nd as Carmona went 2 scoreless innings before belly flopping his way to the DL. However, it does certainly bring into focus why calling Carmona’s season “uneven” or “inconsistent” is about as accurate as it gets. When he’s good…he can be very good. When he’s bad…oy.
That, unfortunately, is Fausto. Love him or hate him, just get used to him for another year.

Carlos Carrasco
Lest you forget, back before Cookie was buzzing towers and going under the knife, he was putting together a break-out season in the starting rotation. At the end of June, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and was holding opposing hitters to a .660 OPS. Those numbers were propelled by 5-game stretch in which Carrasco allowed only 4 ER in 36.2 IP (0.98 ERA), striking out 28 and walking only 5 in that stretch, which included a 7-inning outing in the Bronx. Prior to that stretch, Carrasco had already spent time on the shelf with arm issues and he would find himself there again, eventually making his way onto the Tommy John hospital bed as his age-25 season will involve nothing but rehab in 2012 with an eye towards 2013. If there is a great disappointment in 2011, it is Carrasco’s injury as he was starting to show signs (at age 24) of being the top-to-middle-of-the-rotation starter that the Indians envisioned when he was the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal. While Masterson took the leap into the top-of-the-rotation, Carrasco’s path there (and he did seem to be on that path) was interrupted by the injury as the Indians lost not only one of their most promising young arms, but had their immediate depth in the rotation compromised almost immediately as Carmona’s option became a necessity and as the likelihood of adding a veteran starter grew exponentially. Now, the hope with Carrasco is that he can do what so many pitchers have done before him – emerge from Tommy John surgery and achieve success. The answer as to whether he can do that or not however, is not one that’s going to come anytime soon.

Chris Perez
Want to know what’s tough about being a fan of a baseball team?
Sometimes it’s hard to separate personal feelings from actual feelings on a particular player and Chris Perez in 2011 is a great case study of that. After years of enduring Bob Wickman and the cast of characters that tried their hand at pitching the 9th inning for the Indians, C. Perez came in and stabilized the back-end-of-the-bullpen in a way that has been lacking for too long. Finally, the Indians had an answer at closer that projected a hell, fire, and brimstone attitude from the mound (and on Twitter) that was both endearing and exciting. With his hair flying and his with his steely glare, Perez had the look and feel of a lockdown reliever that we all wanted to believe that he could be. The problem is…in 2011, he just wasn’t. Yes, he saved 36 games (and I’m going to put aside my vitriol for the “save” as a “statistic”) and his presence in the 9th inning allowed the rest of the bullpen to slot into roles, in which they flourished. But he also only struck out 39 hitters all season in 59 2/3 IP and had the 2nd worst K/BB ratio on the pitching staff, “bested” only by Mitch Talbot. That’s not to say that Chris Perez was not effective at times as he finished the year with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .648 OPS against. Those are all great numbers, but his peripherals took a tumble this year and perhaps you’re in the camp of “all that matters is getting those final 3 outs”, but you can’t tell me that Perez’s 9th inning affairs were…um, adventurous at times. For as much as all Indians’ fans want Perez to be that lights-out, shut-down 9th inning presence, Perez simply wasn’t that this year and, with him about to make a salary between $4M and $5M in arbitration, the Indians need to ask some hard questions on whether Perez ever will be the lock-down closer that we want him so badly to be.

Rafael Perez
Anyone remember that Rafael Perez had a 1.12 ERA in late June, with a 1.09 WHIP and a.523 OPS against in 32 IP?
If you don’t, it’s probably because (other than not giving interviews and not really embracing the bullpen persona that the rest of the relievers did) he has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .779 OPS against since that time. That’s not to say that Perez was not an effective reliever, but he struck out 13 hitters in his final 30 2/3 IP and walked 8 in that same stretch. A K/BB ration around 1.00 over a three-month timeframe is not something that elicits a lot of confidence, particularly when the pitcher is only striking out a batter about once every three innings pitched. Given that Perez is due another pay raise in arbitration and with Nick Hagadone ready in the wings, this may be The Quiet Man’s last stand in Cleveland (regardless of what Acta says publicly) as he is still an effective reliever whose value to the organization may be greatest in terms of what he could provide as a return in a trade.

Lonnie Chisenhall
Yes, his final line will say that he posted a sub-.700 OPS in more than 200 plate appearances this year, but for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of MLB…what The Chiz was able to show (albeit inconsistently at times) puts him in this category. That age is a MAJOR factor here as only 8 players that were 22 or younger compiled more than 200 PA this year and the fact that Chisenhall held his own at the plate is reason for optimism. One factor that is often forgotten about Lonnie’s season is the pitched ball that bounced off his face about a week-and-a-half after his arrival to the parent club. At that point, Chisenhall had already accumulated 4 XBH in his first 9 games and, while the beanball would take some of the steam out of his engine (he had a .579 OPS in the 5 weeks after getting hit), the extra-base machine has returned with a vengeance down the stretch as he’s posted an .858 OPS in the last 3 weeks. While September numbers should be taken with a GIANT grain of salt, the talent certainly seems to be there with The Chiz, if the confidence looked shaky at times this season. While it is true that he looked lost at times, he was surprisingly adept in the field, and Chisenhall now has a base to build upon and some momentum to go into the 2012 season as the starting 3B for the Tribe.

The Damaged Duo – Hafner & Sizemore
What can be written about these two that hasn’t been written in the past year, the past two years, or even the last three years? When healthy, these two can hit, something they proved once again at the beginning of 2011…problem is, they weren’t healthy.
Again…
On May 10th, Sizemore had a .974 OPS and Hafner had a .916 OPS as the Indians got out to their hot start. Grady went down first (and second) and Hafner held on for a while longer, with a .994 OPS as late as July 7th. But, as has been the case for the past few years, both would encounter injuries that would linger…then linger some more. With news that Grady’s heading off to have his right knee examined by the same doctor who performed microfracture surgery on his left knee, it is sad (if not fitting) to see the Indians’ careers of these two – once thought to be the linchpins that would carry the offense to success past 2007 – slowly wind down, with barely a whimper. Depending upon what Dr. Steadman has to say about Grady’s right knee, I’d still hold by what I wrote last week (and Steadman’s diagnosis may affect Grady’s willingness to do a re-structured deal that may not have existed before) in that Sizemore’s talent shouldn’t be summarily dismissed. However, 2011 felt like the last few years have for these two – glimpses of what used to be barely visible between the reality of what now is.

Back-End Rotation Arms
Truthfully, not much more is known about the troika of Jeanmar Gomez, Dave Huff, and Zach McAllister than was known when the season started. There have been positives such as Gomez’s recent stretch before greeting the Tigers, Huff upon being recalled, and McAllister’s 2nd and 3rd starts. Of course, there have been negatives to go with those, like Gomez’s still-paltry K/9 rate, Huff’s freefall after his relief appearance, and McAllister’s 1st start. So what do the Indians have in these three? Right now, they look like back-end-of-the-rotation/swing-man fodder as you’re going to always get positives and negatives from pitchers like this. Gomez and McAllister are young enough that they can perhaps carve a niche out for themselves and maybe (just…maybe) Huff can finally turn that corner that he’s been chasing since arriving to MLB, but the greater likelihood is that these guys represented the starting pitching depth in 2011 and will continue to do so for the next couple of years. Perhaps McAllister can break out and become a Westbrook-esque innings-eater, but he’s going to have to take major steps (just like Westbrook did) to get to that point.

Dark Clouds
Ubaldo Jimenez
While it may be acceptable to judge players like Tomlin and Carrasco (and even Carmona) on the basis of an X-game stretch or over the course of a couple of weeks, that simply does not apply for a pitcher that was acquired to front the Indians’ rotation – with the Tribe paying a hefty price to add him. Brought in to pair with Masterson at the top of the rotation, Jimenez was erratic, at his worst at the worst possible times, and looked nothing like the Cy Young contender that he has been in the past. For the Indians’ sake, they had better hope that he was tipping his pitches or that a full off-season of health and work with Tim Belcher on his mechanics can fix him, because a 5.10 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 65 1/3 innings and 11 starts is not anything close to what should be expected from Jimenez. Trust me, I know all about Jimenez’s peripherals that say that his K/9, BB/9, and K/BB are virtually identical to his 2010 season, but at a certain point, Jimenez needs to execute and limit damage and go deep into games. If one “key for success” for the 2012 Tribe season needs to identified today, it is unquestionably Jimenez recapturing his 2010 form (or something close to it) because with the Jimenez that was on display on the mound in a Tribe uniform, the Indians’ rotation won’t keep the team in enough games to win consistently, much less win an AL Central crown.

Matt MaTola
Look, I’ve already piled on MaTola enough in the past two months to re-hash anything new here. The bottom line with LaPorta is that 2011 was the year that he needed to show that he at least had the potential to be the RH bat he was supposed to be when he arrived in the CC deal and, as an about-to-turn-27-year-old with a career OPS around .700 with nearly 1,000 career PA, that just didn’t happen. The Indians should – and will – make plans at 1B this year that don’t involve LaPorta as Plan A or even Plan B as he’s likely to start to 2012 season in Columbus to see if he can evolve as a hitter and even provide the RH pop off the bench that is likely to come from Shelley Duncan for the parent club in 2012. Ultimately, the Indians needed LaPorta to show some signs of hope or some progression in 2011 and he never displayed it…which is a shame, because the RH bat that MaTola was SUPPOSED to be is exactly what the 2011 Indians needed.

Shin-Soo Choo
Speaking of what the 2011 Indians needed, how about the guy that put up these frighteningly consistent lines during the two years prior to this one:
BLC 2009
.300 BA / .394 OBP / .489 SLG / .883 OPS with 38 2B, 20 HR, 21 SB in 685 PA
BLC 2010
.300 BA / .401 OBP / .484 SLG / .885 OPS with 31 2B, 22 HR, 21 SB in 646 PA
Then, 2011 rolled around and Choo came in, fresh off of his first arbitration case, looking to make his move into the upper echelon of players and (to borrow Choo’s “frog” analogy), he got splattered across the street – Frogger-style – a couple of times. First, there was the slow start, then came the DUI, then the HBP, then the oblique, and finally…the oblique again. The “hits” never stopped coming for Choo, and unlike what we saw since he returned from his TJ surgery in 2008, these consistent “hits” were not ones that anybody needed to see. Perhaps Choo simply puts 2011 in the rearview mirror and moves back into the middle-of-the-lineup in 2012 and resumes the steady path that he was following prior to his unquestioned lost year in 2011.

Mike Brantley
He has a .316 OBP in 972 MLB plate appearances and had a .318 OBP in 2010 as a 24-year-old. The hope that he’s going to turn into the on-base machine that he was in the Minors is starting to dissipate and the idea that he’s ever going to develop power seems laughable at this point, with his career .359 SLG. As much grief as LaPorta gets, LaPorta has a career .700 OPS in 1,001 PA and Brantley has a career .675 OPS in 972 PA. Yes, age plays a role here, but Brantley is only two years younger than LaPorta (27 this offseason) as Brantley will turn 25 next May. Perhaps you could say that positional value comes into play (LaPorta is expected to produce more as a 1B), but if what Pluto wrote a couple of weeks ago that the Indians “believe Michael Brantley is -- at best -- average in center field. They’d rather play him in left, where he grades high defensively”…well, then you’re talking about a LF that didn’t really get on base and doesn’t really project to have power. Maybe you want to talk about his “bat-to-ball” ability (despite that he’s middle of the pack in the AL in K%) and love his speed (he had 13 SB this year) and athleticism, but Brantley needs to take a MAJOR step in 2012 to not become a poor man’s version of Coco Crisp…another player mistakenly labeled by many as a “core” player in the mid-2000s who found ultimately his way out of Cleveland after a career year in 2005.

Middle Relievers
With the caveat that I don’t really care about middle relievers/mop-up guys, the guys that filled that role for the Indians were pretty bad this year as Durbin and Herrmann both posted an ERA over 5.00 with WHIP’s to match. Hitters posted an .872 OPS off of Durbin and Herrmann (.810 OPS against) wasn’t far behind as only Mitch Talbot (a eye-popping .933 OPS against) “bested” them in terms of posting the highest OPS against on the pitching staff among arms with more than 20 IP. Truthfully, these guys serve a role to simply come in and eat innings in which the Indians are likely already losing (each has quite a bit more IP than G), but if the Indians are going to continue to build their bullpen from within, these spots need to start going to pitchers that are arriving in Cleveland with the potential to move further up the “bullpen ladder” into the 7th or 8th innings. Maybe Herrmann was that kind of guy or maybe Josh Judy (1.061 OPS against) or Zach Putnam is or could use the middle reliever opportunity to parlay into a more meaningful role, but the failure of the Indians’ middle relief corps all season long was disappointing, if not par for the course for middle relievers around the league.

At the end of the day, 2011 was full of positives and building blocks (in important places, like at the top of the rotation and the middle of the lineup) that should form a foundation going forward. Now, it’s time for the Indians to build up from that foundation to create something that lasts.

Extending a Lazy Sunday

2011-09-25T03:00:00.000-04:00

While the Indians push ever closer to that “goal” of a .500 record (1 win to go) and a 2nd place finish that became the focus of the season after being steamrolled by the Tigers (who steamrolled through the rest of the AL as well), the last week has been an interesting one in the world of baseball as Brad Pitt graces the cover of SI in an A’s hat and as a movie about baseball statistics continues to pack them in at the theaters. Though most baseball fans who come here are familiar (even if vaguely familiar) with the whole “Moneyball” movement, the misconceptions about it, and how it is perceived by those who love it and those who hate it (and those two camps are both full), much of the better analysis of “Moneyball” that’s been coming out since the movie opened has had little to do with the actual book or even the movie.

Rather, what has been the most compelling narrative to follow has been how “Moneyball” has evolved and how it not only has changed the manner in which baseball decisions are made, but the landscape of MLB altogether. For starters, Ken Rosenthal has a terrific piece on how “Moneyball” basically pulled back the curtain on what a few teams were doing when it was written and how the (relative) success of those teams has now caused basically every MLB team to engage in some sort of statistical analysis. Rosenthal delves into what has happened since the release of the book – focusing on specific markets – and attempts to frame it as an evolution, or at least the starting point of a particular evolution.

However, the most compelling piece from the week comes from Tom Verducci in the print edition of SI as Verducci focuses on one market very specifically and how the evolution of the Red Sox, from their statistical analysis, has vaulted Boston into an upper echelon of teams that it is unlikely to leave any time soon. While this is no great revelation, Verducci goes inside what the Red Sox do and how the revenues that they generate separate them from every other team that has leaned on certain philosophies in the past decade. Again, the piece presents no great surprise to people who have been paying attention to the evolution of the Red Sox in the past decade, but Verducci frames it in such a way that he accurately points out how Boston uses their built-in advantages (in the draft, in FA, their ability to overcome mistakes, etc.) because of their revenue streams.

Reading it is pretty sobering as the fan of a small-to-mid-market team that is never going to be able to compete on the consistent basis that the Red Sox have done in the past decade. It also strikes some fear into any Tribe fan’s heart in that it certainly lays out for any large-market, big-revenue team that is NOT taking advantage of the system the way that the Red Sox do to put their current system under the magnifying glass. Since MLB certainly doesn’t seem to be interested in really overhauling the system to prevent the “haves” from becoming further separated from the “have nots” (they prefer to add another Wild Card so the 10 or so teams in each league that don’t get a playoff berth as a birthright have more hope as the season rolls on), it certainly doesn’t elicit a lot of confidence for a team like the Indians, or the other 25 or so other teams in a similar predicament.

So what can the Indians do?
Sure, they can try to make a move with the Marlins, now that Florida’s closer is…um, not who they thought he was, and try to find that RH bat by perhaps dangling Chris Perez to the Fish, who continue to be included on the lists of being “in” on the Pujols/Prince extravaganza (albeit with a heavy dose of skepticism), but the best they can do is hope to get the pieces lined up together every couple of years and take a shot at it.
And isn’t that what they’ve done…and what they’re currently doing?

As much as we hear about “windows” and read about how they are set up for 2012 contention and while everyone knows about the current “window”, what the Indians (or any team like them) need to do is identify a talented group of players, keep them under club control for as long as possible as a group, and hopefully get an extended playoff run (or two) out of that group of players. They did that from 2004 to the middle of 2009 and, while that group only made one playoff run, they’re doing it again, as evidenced by their breakout 2011 season, even if it ended prematurely.

That said, most Tribe fans seem to be looking at this group of players and seeing a fairly limited “window” of opportunity as there are some major pieces that are only under control through the 2013 season (Asdrubal, Ubaldo, Choo) or the 2014 season (Masterson), but if what is past is truly prologue, isn’t this the off-season that the Indians take some of these now-identified “core” players and attempt to keep that window open a little longer by approaching some players that are arbitration-eligible and are only under club control for a couple additional years?

As soul-crushing as it may be to see the usual suspects make the playoffs (NYY, BOS, PHI, TEX) with the rotating group of “see, they can do it” teams (MIL, AZ) after reading those pieces from Rosenthal and Verducci that point out how the already-uneven playing field is probably going to continue to tilt – and not in the Tribe’s favor – the best course of action for the Indians to take this off-season is to take those “core” players that they’ve assembled (via trade or however) and start to approach them about extensions to keep them in Cleveland as long as possible.

They did it in the early-to-mid-1990’s…
They did it in the early-to-mid-2000s…
And, it’s more than likely that they’re going to start doing it this off-season…

While I’m not suggesting the wholesale approach to the whole roster that John Hart and Dan O’Dowd executed in the early-to-mid-1990s (Scott Scudder…Glenallen Hill, anyone?), there is little question that the current group of Indians has some players that need to be approached by the club with offers that guarantee fair salaries for the next few years in order to keep them under club control past what their current service time would dictate.

This was mentioned about a month ago, but the Indians “could approach Asdrubal with an offer similar to the contract that Troy Tulowitzi signed back in 2008 (not the 10-year deal he just inked) for 6-years and $31M just as they could go to Masterson with a deal similar to the ones that Jon Lester (5 years, $30M) and Clay Buchholz (4 years, $29.95M) recently signed to keep those two on The Reservation for the foreseeable future at set contract numbers.”

Let’s keep this line of thinking going, and since I’m using Tulo’s first deal as the basis for a potential Asdrubal extension, let’s remember what was pointed out back in May and re-visit the comparison, as it is worth pointing out again what Tulowitzki put forth in his first 3 MLB seasons as well as what Asdrubal did in his first 3 MLB seasons:
Tulowitzki (2006-2008) – 281 games
.276 BA / .346 OBP / .435 SLG / .781 OPS / 96 OPS+ with 99 XBH in 1,082 AB

Asdrubal (2007-2009) – 290 games
.287 BA / .355 OBP / .411 SLG / .766 OPS / 105 OPS+ with 92 XBH in 1,034 AB

Now, if you look at what each player did/is doing in their 4th season, you start to wonder if Asdrubal and Tulowitzki are more similar players than one would imagine. By that I mean that here are Tulowitzki’s numbers from that 4th season in 2009, when he was 24 years old:
.297 BA / .377 OBP / .552 SLG / .930 OPS / 131 OPS+ with 32 HR, 66 XBH

And now, Asdrubal’s 4th season this year, which is his season as a 25-year-old:
.275 BA / .334 OBP / .465 SLG / .800 OPS / 121 OPS+ with 25 HR, 60 XBH

There is some age discrepancy there, but what is interesting there is while Tulo’s numbers certainly look better overall, a stat like OPS+ actually says that Asdrubal is having a comparable year in the context of what’s happening offensively in the rest of the league because it uses the rest of MLB as a comparison tool and relates what each player is doing in the context of the rest of MLB.

While realizing that this isn’t apples-to-apples, this is the contract that Tulowitzki signed in January of 2008 which, at the time, was the largest deal ever for a player with less than 2 years of service time, starting with the relevant comparatives of what would have been Tulo’s 2nd year of arbitration and all ensuing years in the contract he signed:
2011 - $5.5M
2012 - $8.25M
2013 - $10M
2014 - $15M club option ($2M buyout)

Whoa…those are some big numbers that are out there, but if (according to MLBTR), “Cabrera’s power surge should push him to $4.9MM or so” in his 2nd year or arbitration, that $5.5M number (or thereabouts) is probably a conceivable carrot to hang out there for Asdrubal to get him to the table for an extension. Of course, Tulowitzki signed his deal, with those locked-in numbers, far earlier in his career than where Asdrubal is right now, so the Indians may need to come pretty close to these numbers.

Given that Tulowitzki has put up better numbers (for longer) than Cabrera but signed his deal much earlier in his career than Asdrubal would, perhaps the Indians could use the last 3 guaranteed years (and one club option) of Tulo’s first contract as a framework to offer Asdrubal a deal that would look something like this:
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M
2015 - $12M club option ($1M buyout)
2016 - $13M club option ($2M buyout)
That’s a 3-year deal worth $27M guaranteed, buying out one year of Asdrubal’s FA years (2014) and putting some club options in there at big numbers (with buyouts that aren’t inconsequential in terms of cash) that might entice Asdrubal to consider the security of a long-term deal instead of going year-to-year for the next two seasons. Maybe this could be construed as “buying high”, but Asdrubal doesn’t turn 26 until this November and if the assumption is that 2011 finally provided a peek into what Asdrubal can do, it’s the right time to make this kind of commitment to a player, rather than deal with the nightmare that Asdrubal would hit the FA market as a 27-year-old entering his age-28 season and figuring that there would be some interested suitors at that point.

Perhaps Asdrubal is keenly aware of those years and ages and potential interest, but his agent (Alan Nero) also represented Victor Martinez when El Capitan signed a 5-year deal with a club option back in 2005, sacrificing potential future earnings for security, so perhaps a common ground could be located.

The question that needs to be asked is whether approaching Cabrera with a long-term deal with some big numbers going forward is even prudent, given his HUGE bump in production from Asdrubal?

To that I would say that I think too much is being made of his HR increase, particularly as it’s being framed as a one-year bump from his injury-riddled 2010 to his fully-healthy 2011. Consider that in the 1,610 plate appearances that Asdrubal had coming into this year, he had 112 XBH, meaning that he hit an XBH in 6.9% of his plate appearances. This year, he has tallied 60 XBH in 652 PA and while that translates out to him getting an XBH in 9.2% of his plate appearances, we’re not talking about a stratospheric leap here, particularly considering his age and his health.

Could Asdrubal come back to Earth and never replicate his 2011 success?
Of course…don’t you remember Jhonny Peralta v.2005 (.885 OPS as a 23-year-old) and Peralta from 2006 through 2009 (.744 combined OPS over 4 seasons, with a .690 OPS in 2009)?

But these are the risks the Indians need to take (particularly in light of the evolving landscape of MLB), to lock up their own players while they sit alone with them at the negotiating table. When they’re the only team able to offer a player the security of guaranteed money, they need to parlay that into more years of club control, and this off-season represents a perfect time to do so with Asdrubal.

Asdrubal is not alone on this list however as Justin Masterson’s 2011 season has vaulted him into the upper echelon of AL starters, with his first year of arbitration awaiting him this off-season. Though the MLBTR piece says that Masterson would use a “healthy $4M this year” in arbitration, he would look to be ripe for an extension that would keep the big RHP under club control past 2014. In terms of Masterson and a comparable contract that could provide the framework for an extension for the large RHP that figures in at the top of the rotation, you need to look no further than the deal signed by Masterson’s former Red Sox teammate Clay Buchholz, who signed a 4 years, $30.445M last off-season with 2016 and 2017, with the numbers breaking down like this:
2012 - $3.5M
2013 -$5.5M
2014 - $7.7M
2015 - $12M
2016 - $13M club option ($0.245M buyout)
2017 - $13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

You’ll notice that Buchholz’s contract (signed this past April) does not include a 2011 salary as it included a $1M signing bonus in addition to the $550K he made in 2011 from Boston as the contract really goes into effect in 2012

That’s interesting because when Buchholz signed that extension prior to the 2011 season, he had 2 years and 59 days of service time and (after this season) Masterson will have 3 years and 108 days of service time, meaning that he’s 1 year further into his career than Buchholz was when he signed his deal. However, if Buchholz’s contract didn’t offer him a significant pay bump in 2011, I don’t think that it’s outrageous to copy the pattern of the Buchholz extension and maybe bump up those numbers accordingly, figuring the leap that Masterson took

The leap is one that Buchholz took a year earlier and one of the reasons that Buchholz is the one being used here is because his 2010 season (the one before his extension) was similar to Masterson’s 2011 season as Buchholz broke out in 2010, to the tune of a 2.33 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a MLB-best 187 ERA+. Similarly, Masterson has answered questions about his viability as a front-of-the-rotation starter, en route to a 3.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 123 ERA+. Certainly, Buchholz’s 2010 numbers are more impressive than those from Masterson this year, but with Masterson closer to FA than Buchholz was last off-season, it is possible that Masterson is going to be looking for numbers similar to those received by Buchholz last April.

Perhaps the Indians could do something similar to Buchholz’s deal with something like this, particularly figuring that “guess” from MLBTR on Masterson’s 2012 salary via arbitration:
2012 - $4M
2013 - $6M
2014 - $8M
2015 - $12M
2016 - $13M club option ($250K buyout)
2017 - $14M club option ($500K buyout)

That breaks down to a 4-year, $30.75M deal for Masterson (with the $30.75M guaranteed) with club options that could keep him in a Tribe uniform through the 2017 season, when Masterson will be 32. Essentially, they’d be buying out one year of FA (and paying him $12M in that year) with some club options that represent some pretty big numbers after that. He’d be guaranteed the $30.75M, which is more in guaranteed money than the extensions meted to Buchholz and another former teammate, Jon Lester, both of whom signed extensions with Boston prior to arbitration, giving up years of FA and with club options attached to the extensions for the security of guaranteed money.

Would Masterson do something similar?
It’s entirely possible and it would lock in numbers for a front-of-the-rotation starter and keeps him past that “END OF 2014” that has everyone gripping.

Regardless of whether they’re able to reach an agreement for an extension with Masterson or Cabrera (or even Choo…though I’ve pretty much written that off because of the Boras factor – bad season/DUI or not), it is worth mentioning in all of this extension talk as most people think that keeping homegrown players around is the best use for 2012 money, but extending these guys wouldn’t really affect the 2012 payroll as these players are going to get the salaries (whether it be via arbitration or extension) one way or another.

That’s a common misperception that needs to be cleared up as extending these guys doesn’t really affect their ability to spend money elsewhere for 2012 as the Indians aren’t going to give Justin Masterson $8M in 2012 as part of an extension if he would get around $4M in arbitration because…well, that just isn’t how the process works. Rather, these extensions affect FUTURE payrolls, just as the extensions that were signed back in the early-to-mid-2000s didn’t really affect one particular year (see how the graph in the middle of this page has a nice, linear path up from 2004 to 2009), but kept that group of players together longer than they would have, had the Indians not extended those players that they identified as “core” players back in the early-to-mid-2000s.

Lest you forget, Victor signed a 5-year, $15.5M deal with the Tribe with that 2010 club option back in April of 2005 as Victor was under contract from 2002 through 2010 as an Indian. Obviously, he never made it through that 2009 season, but that’s 9 seasons that El Capitan would have been under club control. Lee was also under club control for 9 seasons as an Indian because of that 2010 club option that was exercised as a member of the Mariners. No, they weren’t 9 FULL seasons, but the Indians gave out extensions to those players that kept them under club control longer than simply going year-to-year with them in arbitration, then dealing with their FA year when it arrived would have.
Anyone remember that CC was under club control for 8 years as an Indian because of the TWO extensions that he signed with Cleveland?

Again, while most people remember how these guys LEFT because of contracts, they forget that the Indians extended CC, Lee, Martinez, Sizemore, Peralta (and others) when each was a young player and, while most people don’t remember those deals – remembering instead the “deals” that took them out of Cleveland or the “deals” they signed once they were FA – this is a strategy that the Indians have been implementing since the early 1990s.

While the landscape of the MLB has changed (and will continue to), the Indians can still identify those “core” players and attempt to lock them up in long-term deals that guarantees money to the player, providing the incentive to the player to give up a year or two (or more) of their FA years. Certainly, that doesn’t mean that they need to get overly ambitious and go after Santana or Kipnis or anyone else that is a LONG way away from even being arbitration-eligible. But Cabrera and Masterson are two players that I would certainly approach this off-season to start to get these guys under club control past the end of the 2013 season (in Asdrubal’s case) or the end of the 2014 season (in the case of Masterson) as they seem to have some payroll flexibility going forward.

Having those two players past their current Cleveland “expiration dates” may not be enough to allow the Indians to overcome a slanted system (and not in their favor) where the mousetrap that they built in the mid-2000s has been copied by teams with deeper pockets, now in possession of bigger mousetraps. However, the “core” players for the Indians started to emerge in 2011 and keeping those players on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as long as they can needs to be as important as anything that the organization is going to do to augment the current group in place to keep that “window” open as long as possible.

Board of Options

2011-09-21T22:17:00.007-04:00

With the 2011 season winding down, there has certainly been quite a bit of talk that’s already started about the 2012 roster and the decisions that face the Tribe this off-season. While the off-season is still about a month away (remember, the still have the MLB playoffs…Indians or not), much of the focus has landed squarely on the options that exist for the two players that were once thought to be the linchpins of the franchise, whose stock has dropped considerably as seasons have progressed – Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona.

While arbitration numbers need to be figured and contract extensions need to be considered, the immediate focus is on the $7M option that the Indians hold for Carmona and the $9M (not $8.5M as it’s being reported by so many outlets) for Sizemore’s 2012 season. Given that significant raises are coming to a number of players currently on the Tribe because of their service time and the prevailing notion that the Indians need to add to the current group of players in order to contend, it is no small issue. As it stands now, their assumed commitment to players currently on the roster (if they pick up the options on Sizemore and Carmona) figures to be around $65M, if you use the arbitration estimates on the Tribe players from MLBTR here, with $23M to the 7 arbitration eligibles (again, numbers here), $13M to Hafner, $9M to Sizemore, $7M to Carmona, $4.2M to Ubaldo, and about $6M for the 14 remaining minimum-salaried players (assuming minimum salary is about $425,000) that figure to fill out the roster.

Since the Indians don’t figure to drastically bump the payroll, and while there is some logic to perhaps moving some of the arbitration-eligible players (is Chris Perez worth $4.3M a year?), the crux of the discussion regarding adding players (and their salaries) starts with the idea that all the Indians need to do is decline Carmona’s option and Sizemore’s option and they’re in business to add some pieces and parts. Additionally, there seems to be this prevailing logic in some circles that the Indians should decline these options, sign players for the money that would have been going to Carmona and Sizemore and the roster would be significantly better.
But is that logic sound?

Just to start with Carmona and that $7M option, everyone realizes what the going rate is on the FA market for Starting Pitchers, right?
For some hard numbers, consider that in 2010, Javier Vazquez posted a 5.32 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP for the Yankees. After that season, he signed a 1-year, $7M deal with the Marlins for the 2011 season. Certainly, Vazquez’s 2009 with the Braves (2.87 ERA) played a role in the Marlins’ decision to ink Vazquez as the Marlins likely thought that Vazquez would benefit from a change in scenery (out of Gotham) and could find his former self, but if Carmona’s 2011 option is for $7M, doesn’t it stand to reason that similar demand could exist for Carmona this off-season?

Lest you forget, in a FA market starved for ANY viable starting pitcher, Kevin Correia inked a 2-year deal with the Pirates last off-season for $8M and that was coming off of a 2010 season in which he had a 5.40 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP...for the Padres, who play in cavernous Petco Park. Going further, the Cardinals gave Jake Westbrook (4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP with the Tribe and Cards in 2010) a 2-year deal worth $16.5M last off-season, for a pitcher that they assumed would sit in the middle-of-the-rotation in St. Louis.

With the embarrassing dearth of starting pitching (particularly starting pitching available on the FA market) league-wide, these players are going to get more money than they’re worth. That may not be telling any secrets, but just to keep the examples flying from last off-season, Brad Penny got a $3M deal last off-season from the Tigers after pitching only 55 innings with the Cards in 2010 and Brandon Webb got $3M in guaranteed money from Texas last off-season having pitched FOUR MLB innings the previous two seasons.

Sure, Penny and Webb had histories of success, but given Carmona’s “potential”, is there any doubt that a team (like..say, the Yankees) would roll the dice on Carmona’s “potential” and give him a deal, with the idea that they’d be the ones that could iron out the issues that have plagued him, however long those issues have plagued him? In case you forgot, Carmona posted a 3.77 ERA in 2010 as some thought that he may have turned that corner (once again) to respectability and, if we’re to glean anything from 2011, it’s that the talent is still there with Carmona, just not the consistency.

Certainly, every split-personality descriptor has been assigned to Carmona this season, but take a look at Carmona as he personified that Jekyll-and-Hyde that has tantalized and frustrated us all season:
April 7th through May 8th - 7 starts
2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30 K, 14 BB with a .541 OPS against in 48 2/3 IP

May 13th through June 26th – 9 starts
7.99 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 26 K, 18 BB with a .927 OPS against in 50 2.3 IP

In the interest of full disclosure, I’m not including the game in Cincinnati here on July 2nd as Carmona went 2 scoreless innings before belly flopping his way to the DL. Regardless, here is what he’s done since he returned from his DL stint:
July 18th through August 22nd – 7 starts
2.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26 K, 13 BB with a .673 OPS against in 47 IP

August 27th through Tuesday – 6 starts
7.55 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 18 K, 13 BB with a .868 OPS against in 31 IP

Which of those pitchers is going to show up for the rest of Carmona’s career, much less in 2012, the talented one that is capable of compiling a month’s worth of good starts or the headcase that allows baserunners and runs to envelop him?
Let’s just say that there’s a reason that “Good Fausto/Bad Fausto” is part of the lexicon of any Indians fan…

Regardless, it’s not a secret that this inconsistency with Fausto is mental and since they’ve attempted to crawl inside his head since 2008, there isn’t any great hope that Fausto v.2007 is ever coming back. Rather, the hope is that Fausto can settle into the middle-of-the-rotation, have more stretches of good pitching than bad, and contribute 200 or so (admittedly, uneven innings) to the Tribe. Now, if Cookie Carrasco’s elbow would have not landed him on the Tommy John operating table, this is a completely different discussion, just as it was affected by the trade of White (11 HR allowed in 27 2/3 IP for the Rox) and Pomz (1.69 ERA for Colorado), though not as much as the Cookie surger. But Carrasco’s not coming back in 2012 and White and Pomz are donning purple uniforms now.

Going further, given some of the concerns about Fausto’s conditioning, it could probably be argued that picking up this option may not be the best idea, in terms of motivation for Carmona, but looking at the other options on the FA SP market (is Edwin Jackson or Bruce Chen or Jeff Francis much more appealing…and what kind of money/years does it take to get those guys?) this off-season and with the idea that the Indians probably shouldn’t count on Gomez/Huff/McAllister to take up TWO spots in the rotation, the Indians are best served turning their head, pinching their nose, and picking up Carmona’s option for 2012, given that it’s basically a one-year deal and the final year that these options for Carmona aren’t patently outrageous (it’s $9M next year and $12M in 2014) in terms of guaranteed money.

As for the other option on the Tribe’s table this off-season, this is what I wrote exactly two months ago regarding one Grady Sizemore:
Maybe the allure of what Grady could be and his value as a “known” name play a role here more than it should (although this Front Office is known for making decisions with their head over their heart), but two strengths of Grady’s game have always been speed and defense and with both knees perhaps undergoing procedures since May of last year, the wisdom of picking up that option (Grady’s status as a fan favorite and as the onetime “Face of the Franchise” considered) wouldn’t look too prudent as the Indians could simply pay the $500K buyout to decline the option.

That said, perhaps another option could exist (and it’s one that I’ve been touting for a while) as perhaps the Indians attempt to re-negotiate with Sizemore, using that club option as the carrot to dangle in front of Sizemore to add more club control at lower numbers past 2012. Or, perhaps they approach Sizemore on an incentive-laden deal past 2012, again using that $9M as incentive for him to accept lower numbers than he’d thought he’d be earning past 2012. Unfortunately for Sizemore, the big contract that seemed so obvious for him may not come as he’ll be left to prove that he’s healthy and can be effective, a stunning downturn of a career that once seemed so limitless and on a path only treaded by some of baseball’s elite.

As much as I hate to say, “this”…well, “this”.
However, despite the fact that it “wouldn’t look to prudent” to pick up that option as it currently exists, there is this gnawing feeling that Sizemore’s talent is still in there somewhere and that it would nearly be criminal if Sizemore returned to some level of his past production in something other than a Cleveland uniform. Lest you forget, Sizemore posted the 4th highest WAR from 2005 to 2008 as he became the Golden Boy, the SI Cover Boy, and the impetus for fan sites everywhere. He was the Indians’ best chance at a baseball superstar, under club control through the end of the 2012 season (remember thinking how great that was entering 2009?), and the pillar upon which the lineup would be built.

Now, he’s viewed as a has-been, a windmill of all that had gone wrong in the decline of the Indians of the 2000s, as he quickly made the trip from the penthouse to the outhouse with his role of that of a savior morphing into that of a pariah. Of course, that downward path was prompted by his injuries and while it can be accurately asserted that those 2005 to 2008 stretch was a long time ago, doesn’t anyone remember what he put forth when he returned from the DL in mid-April of THIS YEAR?
Grady Sizemore – 2011 – 1st 18 games after return
.282 BA / .333 OBP / .641 SLG / .974 OPS with 10 2B and 6 HR in 84 PA

He had TEN doubles in 18 games and SIXTEEN extra-base hits upon his return. Obviously, he was injured again in mid-May, forcing him to the DL after those 18 games, but isn’t that kind of the paradox with Grady?

When fully healthy (or even close to it), he’s an unquestioned talent, capable of putting an offense on his back while flying after fly balls in the OF. When he’s not healthy, he’s either a shell of his former self at the plate (he has a .599 OPS since mid-May…and nobody can convince me that he’s been healthy since that first DL stint) or he’s languishing on the DL.

That said, here’s the thing with Grady – even outside of the unappealing internal options to replace him (Zeke and Crowe) or the fact that the CF FA pickings are slim – as I don’t know how many people are prepared to see Sizemore, with a full off-season to rehab and potentially get healthy, returning to his Superhero form in another uniform. Which is to say, that if Grady can spend the off-season getting healthy and is able to prove to some team (any team) that he’s close to being back to form, he’s going to be in demand.
Not $9M in demand, but in demand nonetheless…

That’s where the Indians hold the cards with this thing in that they have that $9M club option that they can use as the carrot for Sizemore. Though I have trouble believing what the Tribe told Terry Pluto in that, “if the Indians pass on Sizemore’s option, they believe another team will probably pick him up at that price range” as $9M for a player, I do think that the Indians could use the guaranteed $9M as incentive to keep Grady, while perhaps minimizing some risk on their part, in the fold with the idea that if he does return to form, that he’ll do it as a Cleveland Indian.

Though I’ve been floating the idea of renegotiating Sizemore’s deal for some time, Pluto says in his piece this past weekend that he would “offer Sizemore a contract with a $3 million base and lots of incentives. It can even be hooked into a lucrative long-term deal if he plays 120 games, or some other indication of durability.” Let’s use this as a starting point and get a little creative with a possible solution that allows the Indians to minimize some risk, keep Sizemore on the team with reachable incentives that become lucrative for Grady, and find some common ground here.

As a starting point, the Indians would guarantee Sizemore’s $9M option, but make it payable over 3 years with those games-played-based incentives that Pluto suggested built in so Sizemore (if healthy) could earn a salary at a rate commensurate with what a healthy Sizemore would earn on the open market. Remember, they did this with Pavano a couple of years ago, with incentives tied to innings pitched building upon a base salary as Pavano’s health was in question and the Indians’ creativity is what brought Pavano onto The Reservation.

Regardless, follow me on this:
2012 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $6M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $1.5M for 80 games played
Another additional $1.5M for 100 games played
Another additional $1.5M for 120 games played
A final additional $1.5M for 140 games played
In this scenario, he’s guaranteed $3M in 2012 and could earn up to the $9M if he plays in 140 games, earning healthy bumps in pay as he plays in games throughout the season.

2013 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $8M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $2M for 80 games played
Another additional $2M for 100 games played
Another additional $2M for 120 games played
A final additional $2M for 140 games played
Again, Sizemore has that $3M guaranteed with the ability to earn $11M if he hits that 140 game plateau.

2014 - $3M guaranteed, potential for additional $10M for 140 games played
$3M guaranteed base
Additional $2.5M for 80 games played
Another additional $2.5M for 100 games played
Another additional $2.5M for 120 games played
A final additional $2.5M for 140 games played
You’re getting the point here, as Grady will still get the $3M guaranteed (the final 1/3 of that $9M club option) in 2014 with the possibility that he could earn $13M if he stayed healthy enough to play in 140 games.

Looks acceptable from a team standpoint, right?
What about a compelling reason for Grady to sign this?
Well, I would include a proviso that if Sizemore does not reach the 80 games played plateau in any of those seasons, he immediately becomes a FA in the following year with the club giving up control of him, while still paying him that guaranteed spread-out $9M, which would become deferred payments. This way, if Sizemore was unable to play in 80 games and wanted to test the FA market, he could sign another deal elsewhere while still receiving the guaranteed base salaries from the Indians and essentially double-dipping while still having the security of a guaranteed $3M per year through the 2014 season.

In this scenario, the Indians spread out their risk by lowering the guaranteed money to Sizemore each year, Sizemore gets his $9M total guaranteed (albeit over three years) with built-in escalator clauses that are have no basis on performance and are simply based on his ability to stay healthy, and perhaps a happy medium is reached. For some context on the games played numbers, Sizemore hasn’t played in 80 games since the 2009 season (he played 109 that season) and hasn’t played in 140 games since the 2008 season, so these games played numbers – while not outrageous – are going to take some consistent health from Sizemore to hit.

It’s possible that Sizemore and his agent reject this as you have to remember that he already signed his “discounted” deal when he inked his 6-year, $23.45M deal as a much-younger player. Maybe he wants to dip his toe in the FA market and demands that the $9M option (as it exists) is either picked up or declined and, if that were the case, the Indians have to make a quick assessment of the FA market and the Trade market while being very honest with themselves about what can be reasonably expected for Sizemore in 2012 as the dearth of OF options past him isn’t going away anytime in the near future.

However, if the Indians were able to get Grady to agree to spread his $9M club option over a couple of years, the team may actually have some financial flexibility to add that bat that remains atop everyone’s wish list. Would they have enough to add a Mike Cuddyer (who would play some amalgamation of 1B/OF/DH if Grady stuck around), as MLBTR predicts that “Cuddyer could find three years and $30MM on the open market, so the Twins might have to improve their offer to something in the three-year, $27MM range to get a deal done”?

Restructuring Sizemore’s deal certainly makes that more feasible, but the Indians need to get creative in their financial commitments to their current team before fully exploring augmenting the team from within. Maybe that means trading some arbitration-eligible players or maybe it means signing young players to extensions to lock in known payroll numbers going forward, but the financial decisions of the off-season start with the options that exist for Fausto and Grady. Once thought to be no-brainers in terms of exercised options, whether or not the team exercises either option, or both, is going to have a profound impact on what is shaping up to be the most important off-season on The Reservation in recent memory.

Learning Lessons on A Lazy Sunday

2011-09-18T07:12:00.007-04:00

As the weather has now unquestionably turned to Fall on the North Coast as most eyes turn (once again) to the seemingly (once again) moribund Browns and I attempt to discern which craft brewery puts out the best Oktoberfest beer (GLBC is in the lead, over Thirsty Dog and Brooklyn Brewery, with Bell’s in the queue) as the seasons are made for adapting your drinking, the Indians’ season marches on, if largely ignored. While the Oktoberfest tastings may be done with some sort of numbing effect in mind, given that the Tigers have now not only won the division, but are a mere 3 GB behind the Yankees for the best record in the AL as the Indians’ slide down the W-L record seems to be greased, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t things to be watching as the Tribe plays out the string here as they are hanging on in 2nd place (who had that in the pool) and are threatening to finish the season with a record over .500.

Those “things to be watching” don’t involve making major decisions for 2012 on the basis of a couple of weeks in September (Karim Garcia is somewhere with fond memories of his time as an Indian), but rather to see how the Indians can balance protecting some of the principal pieces, while giving those pieces some confidence going into next year and watching some of their young players down the stretch. Certainly, there seems to be some logic in just shutting some of these “veterans” down as there is absolutely no reason to risk further injury (ahem…The BLC) or watch inning counts mount unnecessarily (for Masterson for example as Clecago Joe suggested in the comments) in games that aren’t that important in the grand scheme of things. Of course, news broke late this week that the Indians do, in fact, plan on bringing Josh Tomlin back to likely start one of the games in an upcoming doubleheader. Maybe there is some level of credence to this whole “prove to oneself that they can be healthy going into the off-season”, but have we learned nothing this season?

If something can go wrong, health-wise, for this team, it will…then it will again. Do the Indians REALLY have to bring Josh Tomlin back, even just for a couple of innings, after what we saw time after time this season, with players being cleared to play because they passed all of the “tests” in place, only to see them struggle and eventually end up on the DL again?

Given the rotational depth (or lack thereof), I’m all for shutting Tomlin down, giving Masterson maybe one more start and resting Cabrera and Santana A LOT more than they’re being rested right now. Maybe that means that we’re watching a baseball team that looks more like the Clippers than the Indians for the final two weeks, but isn’t that how it’s been for a while? Give the guys that need continued reps in MLB (Chisenhall, Kipnis, Marson, Huff, Gomez, McAllister) the opportunity to play these final two weeks and stop worrying about giving a guy like Tomlin a chance to feel like he CAN come back to play again in 2011. As we found out with The BLC, the wishes of these guys to finish the season “on the field, not on the DL” are potentially counterproductive.

That being said, and with that as just the appetizer, let’s get off into a Lazy Sunday as we take a look at some of the young players that significantly figure into 2012. For some of those players, answers have presented themselves in 2011 and some that may be coming in 2012.. Seeing as how the 1B “issue” figures to evolve – with Jayson Stark identifying the Marlins as one of the probably “surprise” spenders this off-season…and where have I heard that before – throughout the off-season (so don’t just go ordering that Indians’ Gaby Sanchez jersey yet), and with plenty of time to talk about the options of Sizemore and Carmona that exist, 2011 saw a number of young players attempt to assert themselves in MLB. While the health of the walking wounded Wahoos may be more important for success in 2012, forget attempting to answer the questions of health (Brantley, Choo, Sizemore, Hafner) as I’m not going to attempt to wade into that muck of MRI’s and put-off surgeries. Rather, let’s get into the young players that saw their first major action in 2011 and what can be gleaned (if anything) from their performances as we get off on a Lazy One…

Starting off, remember that idea a few months ago, that there were a number of players in the lineup that entered 2011 with very few MLB plate appearances?
In case you forgot, as the team attempted to keep pace in the AL Central, they were doing so with a cast of characters full of guys still cutting their teeth in MLB:
Cabrera – 1,610 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Brantley – 446 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Hafner – 3,852 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Santana – 192 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
LaPorta – 623 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Chisenhall – 0 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Carrera – 0 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Kearns – 3,799 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Kipnis – 0 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season
Marson – 400 MLB plate appearances entering 2011 season

There are six guys on that list that had fewer than 450 MLB PA going into the season (Brantley, Santana, Chisenhall, Carrerra, Kipnis, and Marson) and since Carrerra and Marson figure to serve on the bench next year and since Brantley logged nearly 500 PA this year and has almost reached 1,000 career plate appearances (with a career OBP of .316…but that’s a topic for another day), let’s focus on the presumed starters going into next season that had fewer than 200 MLB PA coming into 2011 – The Axe Man, Kipnis, and The Chiz.

Despite a slow start (a couple of weeks, at least) and some defensive…um, transgressions, Santana has shown himself to be the potentially impactful bat that he was purported to be as he rose through the ranks of the Indians’ farm system. With his 25th HR yesterday, Santana tied the Indians’ record for HR by a switch-hitter (held by Victor) in his first full season in MLB. From April 28th through Friday night, Santana has a .836 OPS with 22 HR in 121 games, which projects out to a 30 HR season. While projections are just that, Santana is 4th in BB rate in the AL and while his K rate is concerning (in that it represents a stark departure from his MiLB numbers), there are 12 players in the AL with a K/BB rate better than that of Santana with an OPS over .800. They are Miggy Cabrera, Joey Bats, Ian Kinsler, Dustin PEDroia, David Ortiz, Paul Konerko, Victor Martinez, Nick Swisher, Casey Kotchman, and Evan Longoria.

The BB rate may not be all that impressive to some, but that list should be, particularly if you remember (again) that Santana is in his first full MLB season and that he’s likely to finish the season with the highest OPS on the team. Yes…I know Jason Kipnis has a higher OPS as does Shelley Duncan’s (in 1/3 of the plate appearances) but it could be argued (pretty easily) that The Axe Man was the Indians’ best hitter this year. Yes, his BA has been low, but as Joe Posnanski points out, the likely MVP of the AL has a BA of .264 and nobody’s made a peep about that, so maybe this antiquated idea that BA is even worth mentioning in the worth of a hitter is passing. Someday that notion will make its way to the pages of the PD, but even if you want to give some weight to BA, given that Santana has the 7th lowest BABIP in the AL, doesn’t it stand to reason that the still-25-year-old Santana has arrived as a hitting machine for the Tribe?

The Indians have had a lot go wrong this season and have a lot of questions that remain in their lineup, but Santana’s placement in the middle of that lineup (and it being justified by his 2011 performance) is not one of them as Santana is ready to anchor a lineup, something he’s really been doing since the beginning of May.

Heading down the 3B line from where The Axe Man dons his tools of ignorance (and will continue to), the question becomes whether another highly-touted Tribe prospect, Lonnie Chisenhall, is ready to consistently contribute in 2012. That answer is a little murkier as The Chiz has looked overwhelmed at times as he’s actually walking LESS than Orlando Cabrera did as an Indian…and that’s no small feat. In fact his BB/PA is the 2nd lowest in the AL, with only the notoriously free-swinging Vlad Guerrero “besting” The Chiz in that department. The reason that his low BB rate is a cause for concern is that Chisenhall had a respectable BB rate in MiLB and has struggled to have that translate to MLB.

It is worth noting that Chisenhall had a .779 OPS when he got in the face on July 8th, and had a sub-.600 OPS in the 40 games after he took a fastball off his cheekbone. After his recent hot streak (he has 5 XBH, 4 of which have been HR in his last 9 games), his OPS has crept back over the .700 mark. Certainly, more may have been expected from Chisenhall, given all of the hype that surrounded his Spring Training in particular, but The Chiz has looked like a 22-year-old who struggled to make the transition to MLB pitching, as so many young, talented players have done before him. What is interesting for Chisenhall is that there was some (deserved) concern over whether he would be able to handle LHP in MLB, as he had struggled against LHP in the Minors. Oddly enough, The Chiz has crushed LHP this year (.910 OPS vs. LHP) while struggling against RHP (.623 OPS vs. RHP) when the opposite was true throughout his MiLB career as Lonnie always struggled against LHP and thrived against RHP before arriving to the parent club.

Whether anything can truly be gleaned from that is unlikely as the small sample siren blares, but it would seem that Chisenhall could benefit from more “seasoning” at AAA at some point, perhaps to begin 2012. Whether he would start the season in Columbus next year remains to be seen, but the performance of Jack Hannahan (whose career and year is looked at in great detail by the always-terrific Ryan Richards here) in 2011 gives some comfort that the Indians may have a serviceable bridge in place to allow Chisenhall to develop at his own pace. The Chiz may not be completely ready to contribute at a high level to the Indians, but the signs (18 XBH in 182 PA) are there to allow the optimism to remain regarding Chisenhall’s impact, even if that impact is not in the immediate future.

Unlike Chisenhall, the one rookie who made an immediate impact on the Tribe was Lonnie’s infield-mate, Jason Kipnis, whose ranks in the AL (rookie or not) provide some perspective as to the level at which Kipnis performed once he was promoted. Now, it should be noted that Kipnis will be 25 years old next April, so he is a much older “young” player than Chisenhall, but unlike at 3B, the Indians do not have a veteran player (any more) that would prevent the team from giving Kipnis the 2B job from here on out. Yes, Donald and Phelps still exist in the 2B mix, but those two seem to be competing to become a Utility IF for this team going forward as Kipnis asserted himself in a manner in which it’s not hard to picture him at the top of the order for the foreseeable future.

Kipnis’ skill at the plate, his hustle, and his talent were obvious from the time that he arrived in Cleveland and, much like the performance of Santana, his 2011 seasonprovides a glimpse of what should be a productive career for Kipnis as an Indian. With the revolving door that 2B has been spinning since Robbie Alomar made his way to the Big Apple, Kipnis may actually finally settle the position for the Indians and provide some production from 2B that Indians’ fans haven’t been accustomed to in quite some time. Kipnis, like Santana, is likely to sit at the top-to-middle-of-the-lineup from the next few years and figures to be a major cog in the offense going forward, which is more than most would have wished for when the season started.

Speaking of expectations when the season started, how many people would have assumed that Josh Tomlin would have a guaranteed spot in the 2012 rotation, with another spot likely to be filled by Huff, Gomez, or McAllister?

With White and Pomz in the system when the 2011 season started, it was assumed that those arms would have been leapfrogged with perhaps ONE of the Tomlin/Huff/Gomez/ McAllister pile factoring in past 2011, but with the Ubaldo deal, it would seem that the rotation figures to be filled by two of the aforementioned names. Maybe Mitch Talbot reappears at some point, but if Tomlin figures to have one rotation spot locked down (assuming nothing goes SPROING in his elbow…and this is me knocking on wood) with the hope that the April and May Tomlin is going to eventually win over the July and August Tomlin, the Indians will have one spot to fill in their rotation internally, with the likely candidates of Gomez, Huff, and McAllister all making their cases down the stretch in 2011.

Certainly, the most impressive (in MLB) this season has been Jeanmar Gomez, but is Gomez really ready to capture a rotational spot and not relinquish it because of his underwhelming “stuff”?
It is true that he has a sub-4.00 ERA over 47 2/3 IP and he posted a 2.55 ERA in Columbus this year and though it’s fairly obvious that he will never be a big K guy and a high WHIP guy that lives dangerously, it’s easy to forget that he’s 23 years old. Right now, he’s about average (his ERA+ this year is 100), under club-control for a while (meaning he can ride the I-71 Shuttle if necessary) and if the idea is that he can fill out the back-end-of-a-rotation adequately exists, he is likely to be given the first shot at a 2012 spot in the rotation. Assuming his leg injury from Saturday is a minor one (and he’s reportedly not expected to miss a start), Gomez can attempt to build upon the momentum that he’s finishing September with to see if that can translate into a spot in the rotation in 2012.

It is worth noting that Gomez has gone through these periods of effectiveness before (he had a 3.07 ERA through his first 8 starts in 2010, only to see the wheels come off) and his last four starts (in which he’s excelled) have come against Oakland, Chicago, Kansas City, and Minnesota, but Gomez is positioning himself for a spot in the rotation next year. Remembering that he is still just 23 and realizing that his AAA were as good as any in the International League this year (although another 23-year-old Clipper was impressive too), it’s not impossible to see Gomez fitting into the back-end-of-the-rotation for the Tribe. If he falters, he gets sent down to Columbus for the next “hot hand”, but if he excels, the Indians could perhaps get some production from their 5th spot in the rotation without having to spend millions of dollars to do so, saving that money for more pressing needs.

In terms of that other “23-year-old Clipper that was impressive too”, there was an interesting comment from Ross Atkins at IPI as Atkins had this to say about Zach McAllister:
Zach is much more than just a contributing piece to this puzzle for us. I think he is going to be in the middle of a rotation for a long time and there are a lot of people who think that. I know Zach thinks that and that is probably the most important person. He has things not everyone has. He has a three pitch mix, sometimes four. He is durable, he is very strong, he is very intelligent, and he has the work ethic and the passion which are the standards that are elevating. When you look back at Fausto Carmona when he was 20 years old or Jake Westbrook when he was 22-23 years old and breaking into the Major Leagues, they were not exactly seamless transitions.

Now, Atkins is usually good for plotting out the best-case scenario for these guys, but Westbrook is an interesting comp here if you look at what each did in their age-appropriate seasons, both in AAA:
Jake – 2001 AAA (Age 23)
3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.96 K/BB in 64 2/3 IP

McAllister – 2011 AAA (Age 23)
3.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 4.13 K/BB in 154 2/3 IP

Remember, the “light” didn’t really go off for Westbrook until 2003 as he was still the long man/swing starter for those Indians’ teams of the early 2000s before he took off in the middle of 2003. In fact, in Westbrook’s first 3 seasons in MLB (113 IP), he had a 6.43 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP as he struggled to find success in MLB. Don’t take that to mean that McAllister is going to eventually have the career that Westbrook has, but both are groundball pitchers and McAllister’s size (he’s 6’6”, 240 lbs.) is intriguing in his ability to throw on a downward plane.

That’s not to say that McAllister will be ready to contribute from Day 1 in 2012 as he certainly has looked completely overwhelmed in his first two starts for the Indians (he allowed 19 baserunners while tallying 22 outs), but McAllister is interesting because of his youth and the numbers that he put forth in Columbus this year, which compare favorably among starters in AAA. Perhaps he takes as long as Westbrook did to put it all together (although if he follows the same path, he won’t contribute in the rotation until 2013), but McAllister’s numbers in AAA this year (put up at age 23) show that there is talent there. Whether that talent translates may find an answer in 2012.

In terms of talent translating, will the David Huff that some (OK…me) saw back in 2008 ever arrive in Cleveland and consistently contribute?
Too many words and too much thought has been spent on Dave Huff in this space (and others) without a real clear idea of whether Huff has figured it out or if he’s ever going to figure it out and become – at the very least – a viable back-end-of-the-rotation starter. There are starts in which you see his fastball command, his new shortened wind-up, and his aggressiveness all lead to his effectiveness, making it easy to envision him as a player that should be handed the ball every 5th day. Then, there are starts in which you see him nibbling, missing off the plate, getting hammered, and looking like he will never stick in the Tribe’s rotation.

What’s disconcerting about that is that, for players like Gomez and McAllister – still adjusting to MLB and still young – those growing pains are to be expected, but with Huff (now 27 and with more than 250 MLB IP), you have to wonder if this is just who he is. Certainly, the hope is there that LHP take a little longer to develop and the cautionary tale of giving up on a highly-touted LHP is there in the form of CP Lee (though Lee in 2007 and Huff of today are nowhere near to equal footing, in terms of accomplishments or expectations), but it certainly feels like Huff will continue to tease us of what “could be” for a while, instead of asserting himself as “being” as most hope he will.

What does the performance of those three in 2011 mean for 2012?
That’s hard to say, and it becomes a question of whether any of these guys going to perform better than Mitch Talbot has in the last couple of years. One would certainly hope so, but there isn’t one pitcher in that troika that elicits a lot of confidence to step into the rotation in 2012 and succeed (even at a level commensurate with that of a 5th starter) on a consistent basis. With Cookie out with TJ, with Carmona being Carmona and with Tomlin…um, stumbling down the stretch (5.28 ERA, .778 OPS against since May 27th), that’s kind of a terrifying idea going into next season, given that the advantage that a team like the Indians needs to exploit is with their pitching.

Is there another Josh Tomlin on the periphery to surprise us?
Though I think that the question of whether Josh Tomlin is even able to hold down a rotational spot throughout 2012, could a guy like Paolo Espino who, according to Ross Atkins via IPI, is a similar pitcher to Tomlin, come on and surprise the organization in the way that Tomlin did?

There may be some hope for LHP Scott Barnes (and his 107 K in 99 IP), but there’s some major concern past Masterson and Ubaldo (not to mention concern for Ubaldo that lingers) in the rotation. Does that mean that the Indians add another arm to the rotational mix?

At this point, I’d say maybe if you figure that the starting five is Masterson, Ubaldo, Carmona, Tomlin, and some amalgamation of Gomez/Huff/McAllister/Some Guy. After seeing Tomlin’s ERA since the end of May and with the knowledge that Fausto (whose option they almost have to pick up) is…well, Fausto, the Indians’ rotation (past the top two) merits a long look this off-season and the answers that the Indians need on their young pitchers aren’t going to come in a couple of weeks in September. With starting pitchers, answers reveal themselves over months and seasons, not individual starts or weeks. Thus, the questions that are being asked now about the Indians’ young starters are likely going to persist well into 2012.

As for the bullpen arms that figure to populate the September box scores, I’m not about to draw conclusions, as I don’t know a lot about Judy or Hagadone, much less Putnam. From the eye test (the sample sizes are painfully small), Judy has failed to impress and Hagadone’s talent is obvious, as are his strike-throwing issues. Perhaps the Indians can find another Pestano from that group for 2011 with the hope that Pestano (and Sipp and Joe Smith) can replicate their 2011 success for another year. In the world of bullpens – where success is fleeting and nothing is guaranteed from one year to the next – a guy like CC Lee can emerge from nowhere to play a role in a 2012 bullpen or he could go the way of Fernando Cabrera and Jensen Lewis…as could Vinnie Pestano.

As has been stated many times, the pieces that we’ve seen shuffling towards Cleveland have essentially arrived (or are getting their first cup of coffee this September) in the lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen. There were some major steps taken by important players in 2011 and 2012 needs to be filled with more of the same pleasant developmental surprises if the Indians are going to contend (again) next year. Though this is preaching to the choir, the Indians don’t have the luxury of just filling holes by writing checks (without possible complications down the road), as other teams may and though it looks like the chess pieces have been lined up on the board for the Indians, the Tribe needs the players that have now arrived to perform at a level that has been predicted for them.

Success won’t be universal for these young players that have arrived or that figure to arrive, but internal augmentation is still going to have to play a factor here if the Indians are going to be able to use the 2011 season as the jumping-off point for contention in 2012.

As the 2011 winds to a slow finish, it is obvious that on some days, that 2012 contention next year is easy to see. Other days, not so much…

Tomahawks Winding Down

2011-09-14T21:36:00.006-04:00

With only two weeks remaining in the marathon of the 2011 season, the Indians find themselves firmly out of the AL Central race, clinging to the notion that a .500 record is still a viable “goal” for the season, and readying themselves for what figures to be the most interesting off-season in quite a while for the Wahoo Warriors. Though the games are…um, less than compelling as the Indians play out the string, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some storylines that don’t merit a mention.

So let’s mention some of them as we watch the Tomahawks fly…
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While the final two weeks of the season wind down, the questions come out as to why these final two weeks feel so bereft of anything meaningful and why the end of this season feels so much different than Septembers of years past, when compelling storylines existed. Whether those final-month narratives involved playoff pushes or seeing players who you had only known by name and stat line, consider how different this kind of “playing out the string” season compares to years’ past, where there was a very clear line of demarcation when the season was lost:
Grady’s missed fly ball in Kansas City in 2005…
The “sell-off” of anything that wasn’t nailed down in 2006…
CC imploding and Dana DeMuth squeezing in 2007…
The CC deal of 2008…
The CP Lee/El Capitan punch to the gut in 2009…
The “sell-off” (again) of anything of value that wasn’t nailed down last year…

Go back and look at when most of those thing occurred – either at the VERY end of the season (or the playoffs) or sometime in June or July. This “contend through August or so” isn’t something we’ve experienced since 2004 as, in 2005 and 2007, every game was important up to the very end and the end came much sooner in those other years, to the point that fans had a couple of months to focus on youngsters and had more than just a few weeks to envision what the future held. Sure, we have a couple of weeks to see Hagadone and Putnam as well as some time to watch Kipnis and The Chiz every day while we wonder whether Hafner and Grady will ever get fully healthy, but a lot of the questions that existed prior to the season found answers this year and a couple of weeks in September are unlikely to affect those answers.

The answers that came this season – the ones that give reason for hope – were watching Masterson take the leap from flawed starter/eventual reliever to a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, Asdrubal’s leap into the upper echelon of not just MLB SS but among the best AL hitters (15th in the AL in XBH…along with The Axe Man), Santana’s emergence as an offensive force as he now has matched the HR total for Victor’s rookie season as an Indian (23) and who has a .820 OPS since mid-April, Kipnis bursting onto the scene and perhaps settling a position that has been unsettled since Robbie Alomar left town, and a gaggle of arms in the bullpen that are emerging from the Minors that can fill out an effective relief corps. With that group of players’ performance in 2011, the top-of-the-rotation has some stability, the bullpen inspires some hope (with the caveat that reliever success is fleeting and unpredictable) and the Indians have a troika of under-25 hitters that figure to provide some production as they continue to develop…in Cleveland.

On the flip side, we found out that LaPorta is unlikely to ever be the big RH bat, that Carmona is going to remain frustratingly inconsistent despite all of our wishes, that Hafner is unlikely ever to make it through a season completely healthy and will likely play between 80 and 120 games, with an OPS in the low-.800’s as his contract runs out, that even Choo is not immune to a down year, that well-regarded young players (like Chisenhall) often do not arrive to MLB and perform as immediate All-Stars, and that the once-praised Indians’ Training Staff has certainly lost some luster off of their once high-gloss shine.

Certainly, questions remain – who is Ubaldo, what will the Indians do to rectify the 1B issue, could the Huff/Gomez duo contribute to the 2012 rotation with Carrasco out, can the Indians actually stay healthy – that will be answered in the off-season or as 2012 starts, but the building blocks of a healthy foundation seem to be there for the Indians. Thinking back to Opening Day of 2011, those blocks were much harder to see but (with the caveat that regressions and injuries are unavoidable for any team) the Indians have some pieces to build upon as they attempt to use the positive momentum from the 2011 season – regardless of what the next two weeks bring – into a sustained run at the division and (more importantly) an actual look at a playoff run.
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Speaking of the division, with the Tigers now making a play not just for the AL Central (the curtain came down on that “play” about a week-and-a-half ago), and as the Motor City Kitties now make a legitimate push for home field advantage in the playoffs, it is stunning to go back and look at how preseason predictions simply did not jive with how the season played out. For some perspective on how unpredictable the AL Central has been this year, realize that most prognosticators picked the Twins and the White Sox to battle it out for divisional supremacy. You know, the same Twins’ team that is now in last place with a $115M payroll, with SERIOUS issues going forward with their team and the White Sox team that was going to lose “a lot of money” if they weren’t a “good team”?

Remember how Travis Hafner’s contract became an albatross around the neck of the Indians as an organization?
When signed, Hafner’s deal was for 4 years and $57M, with Hafner coming off of a 3-year stretch in which he posted a OPS+ of 170 and on the heels of a 2006 season in which he posted the OPS in all of MLB. Yes, Hafner’s deal would cover his age-30 to age-35 seasons, but for all of the hand-wringing that’s been done about how Hafner’s deal looks like a mistake in hindsight (given the injuries), how about this…

Joe Mauer’s deal in the Twin Cities is for 8 years and $184M and will pay his $23M annually THROUGH the 2018 season. It is true that the deal was signed the year after Mauer also led MLB in OPS and was inked when Mauer was about three years younger than Hafner when each signed their respective deals, but the Twins will pay Mauer (who has a full no-trade in his contract) through 2018 for $23M a year. While there’s little doubt that Mauer is (when healthy) one of the elite players in MLB, he’s played 16 more games than Hafner in the last two years as each has been hampered by injury. Combine the financial commitment to Mauer with the fact that they owe Justin Morneau $15M in 2012 and 2013 while realizing that the likes of Ben Revere and Danny Valencia (while useful) aren’t going to pick up the offensive slack if Mauer and Morneau (.618 OPS this year in 69 games) remain injured and you start to see the issues that face small-to-mid-market teams that (allegedly) do things the “right way” if they are affected by injuries, even if those injuries are to the team’s homegrown players.

While Tom Verducci may be writing articles about the “parity” of MLB, the fact remains that there are going to be “success” stories for small-to-mid-market teams that crop up every year (the D-Backs and Brewers are this year’s, with the Rays threatening to join that duo), but those teams change every year and as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have already figured out how to maximize their inherent advantages to sew up their birthright of a playoff berth, with the Rangers threatening to do the same, it really becomes about 28 teams fighting for 4 playoff berths, with the other ½ of the playoff berths being “reserved” for the usual suspects.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that there are some large-market teams that haven’t figured out how to capitalize on the built-in advantages for them and the example of this most obvious to Tribe fans in the team that resides on the South Side that could see a MAJOR shake-up this off-season. Certainly, it feels like this conversation comes about every year the White Sox don’t make the playoffs (will Ozzie go…what of Kenny?), but regardless of Reinsdorf’s personal affinity for both Kenny and Ozzie, there’s one way to get the attention of a businessman – lose his money.

Lest you forget, Reinsdorf was crowing all off-season about how the White Sox had extended their payroll to the limit and were basically betting that they were going to draw gobs of people to The Cell to “pay” for their increased payroll…a payroll that was about $30M higher than that of the Tigers. Here is what Reinsdorf said prior to the start of the season:
“We’ve really taken a chance…We’ve really stuck our necks out. If this team bombs and we draw 2.2 million people again, we are going to lose a lot of money. We are betting that we’re going to be good.”

Not that anyone needs to be reminded of this, but the White Sox are tied with the Tribe in the standings and are likely to finish around .500, probably more than 15 GB in the AL Central. For a team with a $128M payroll, that’s bombing…

Not quite “could-possibly-lose-100-games-with-a-$115M-payroll-Twins” bombing, but if the Twins have contracts with guaranteed money that look bad going forward, the White Sox have them in spades with guaranteed money going to bad or injured players going forward in spades. They will pay Alex Rios for 3 more years and $37.5M guaranteed after this year to a player with a .585 OPS this year while they cut checks to Adam Dunn for the next 3 years at $44M guaranteed after his 2011 with a .577 OPS. Additionally, they’re on the hook for paying Jake Peavy $17M guaranteed in 2012 and probably a $4M buyout for 2013 for a pitcher with a 4.77 ERA in the last two full years…having thrown just over 200 IP TOTAL since the start of 2010. That trio is all on their books and while the White Sox occupy a market in which they should be able to absorb some bad deals (unlike the Twins), let’s get back to the statement from Reinsdorf that if “we draw 2.2 million people again, we are going to lose a lot on money”.

Right now, they’re barely on pace to barely draw 2 million people (they’ve drawn 2,351 more people per game than the Tribe) and if they were going to “lose a lot of money” from drawing 2.2 million, one would have to think that Reinsdorf will be able to find a reason (or lots of reasons) for the White Sox to do an about face as an organization. Maybe Ozzie heads off to Florida and maybe Kenny Williams gets kicked upstairs so the Pale Hose can promote Rick Hahn to the GM chair to keep him away from the North Siders (and this is something I would not like to see as a Tribe fan), but it’s likely that a change is in the offing in Chicago. Frankly, I’m not all that interested to see what a more efficient Front Office could do with the money that the White Sox spend as they outspent the free-spending Tigers by $30M this year and though they have some very good young pieces, if a GM that was less…um, reactionary than Williams were given the purse strings on the South Side, I fear that the disparity in market size that exists in the AL Central will start to bear itself out in the standings.

That may not be happening any time soon however, as the AL Central (in the short-term) is perhaps there for the taking with Chicago losing a TON of money this season and the Twins in utter disarray...finally. How the Indians attempt to capitalize on this remains to be seen, but if Antonetti tried to take advantage of the 30-15 start, I think he’s going to try to take advantage of what would seemingly be a winnable division...unless, of course, Detroit adds guys like Trevor Crowe and some Minnesota cast-off and turns them into All-Stars while Mike Ilitch continues to deficit-spend (they reportedly lost $29M in 2009) in an effort to give Detroit a World Series trophy an a depressed economic region something to feel good about.
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On the topic of what the off-season holds in store for the Tribe, taking off of this past Sunday’s column that the Indians could be looking to solve their 1B issue by acquiring an under-the-radar 1B that nobody’s thinking of right now, there was a bit from Jim Bowden in Baseball Prospectus’ “Kiss ‘Em Goodbye” series for the Mariners, in which the former GM Bowden attempts to “suggest” moves that each team could make in the off-season to improve themselves for the coming year. For Seattle, Bowden introduced the idea that the Mariners could be players for Prince Fielder, which would make Justin Smoak available, leading to this suggestion to move Smoak to…yep, Cleveland:
Zduriencik drafted Fielder in Milwaukee and would love for him to be the Mariners’ new cleanup hitter for years to come. Zduriencik also has a good relationship with Fielder’s agent, Scott Boras. Realistically, Smoak is a five-hole hitter and Carp a six-hole hitter in a championship lineup. If you get a chance to get Fielder, you get him. The M’s can trade Smoak in a package to the Indians for right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, who originally was signed by the Mariners in 2000. The Indians are convinced Carlos Santana will end up at catcher and Matt LaPorta is no longer their answer at first. Smoak would solve first base for the Indians for the long term while reducing financial exposure.

While I’m not sure I’m ready to turn SS Choo into Justin Smoak (who is a promising young SWITCH-hitter who is under club control through the 2015 season) because you’re just creating a hole in RF to fill the hole at 1B, this is intriguing in terms of extending this “window of contention” idea past the end of 2013. While this may not be a move I’d make (as it could be construed as “selling low” on Choo), this is the type of thinking that I’m expecting from the Indians this off-season. However, if this is the kind of move that the Indians would consider, the question becomes how they balance the near-term with the long-term construction of this ballclub. That is to say, certainly the Indians would figure to be a better team with Choo (v.2008-2010) in the lineup than Smoak, but with Choo about to get more expensive and coming off of a down year, could the Indians use their internal scouting on Choo to realistically know what to expect of him and act accordingly if they feel that 2011 is any kind of sign of regression?

There seems to be a level of aggressiveness from the current Front Office that we haven’t seen for some time and I wonder how bold they’ll get this off-season, in terms of adding talent and payroll. Maybe the Ubaldo deal ushered in a new era of risk-taking for the Indians, in which they’re not simply content to make their picks, watch their own players develop, and simply augment their base through the scrap-heap signings that we’ve become accustomed to in years past. Of course, it’s just as possible that the Ubaldo deal stands out as the aberration and we prepare for the explanation of why a Shelley Duncan/Nick Johnson platoon at 1B is going to be serviceable enough for a divisional contender because the Indians figure to get SO much production from other spots in the lineup.

Whichever it is, it doesn’t figure to be an uninteresting off-sesaon…
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Back to the boldness of the Ubaldo deal, with Pomeranz and White now in the Rockies’ rotation, I thought I’d pass along (and liberally cut and paste) from a piece that appeared on Colorado Rockies’ Prospect Report website as it pertains to Drew Pomeranz and White. It’s a Q & A with Lincoln Hamilton, who runs the Project Prospect website (with a hat tip to Ryan Richards of LGT) on the prospects that made their way to the Mile High City in the Jimenez deal.

While the whole piece is worth a read, here are some of the more interesting comments (specifically focusing on Pomz and White), starting with Hamilton’s opinion of Drew Pomeranz:
“Pomeranz isn’t a completely finished product. I’d like to see him improve his third pitch (his change up). If he can get his command above-average, and his change up to just average to compliment an above-average fastball and devastating curve, then he’s a No. 2. He’s not there yet, but I think he could be a solid big league pitcher with very little improvement right now. Pomeranz does have a pretty high floor for a prospect. After it’s all said and done, my personal belief is that he ends up much closer to his ceiling than his floor.”

That’s about what we’ve heard since Pomz was drafted and it’s awfully interesting that the Rox promoted Pomeranz to the parent club (much less added him to the 40-man roster) when he really doesn’t have that third pitch fully refined yet. Certainly, there are pitchers that can thrive on two pitches (Masterson comes to mind…and he does throw two pitches, not just “one” fastball as people make it out as), but if Pomeranz is going to add and refine that third pitch, it would seem that Colorado is expecting him to do it at the MLB level, or at least in the next few years as his option clock has now been started with his start last Sunday.

As for the other member of the current Colorado rotation, Hamilton had this to say on White, the potential for injury for him and where Hamilton feels he may end up as an MLB pitcher:
“I can’t say when, where, or even if a pitcher will get injured, but I can say if he’s at an elevated risk level. Smoking cigarettes doesn’t guarantee you’ll get lung cancer, but it shifts the actuarial odds out of your favor. Alex White’s pitching motion is the equivalent of a 3-pack-a-day smoking habit…Given the rigors of making 35 big league starts on a 5-man rotation and trying to throw 200+ innings year in and year out, I find it highly unlikely White could stand up to a starter’s workload and still remain healthy and effective long-term”
--snip--
“I think White is likely to have most of his career value come from relieving, where he could be quite good. He has experience out of the pen at the college level. I think short bursts play to this strengths (stuff, competitiveness) while minimizing his concerns (problems against lefties, problems facing guys a third time through the lineup, durability). Let him air it out, the velocity will play up. Then in terms of stuff and potential results he could be akin to a Jose Valverde, Brandon League, or Jonathon Papelbon. White has the potential to be a really good reliever, potential closer.”

Again, this is what we heard/read when White was drafted and while most Tribe fans bristled at the suggestion that White would “only” top out as a reliever, it is interesting to read that opinion expressed again, as well as the injury concerns, particularly in light of White’s finger injury (which could be more serious than is being reported) and his initial struggles in Colorado. Remember, White was called up in May by the Indians, so his service time clock is ticking and (like Pomeranz), he needs to make the necessary adjustments to his repertoire to succeed in Colorado, no small feat.

Regardless, here’s Hamilton’s final take-away on the entire trade, in the context of Jimenez, Pomz, and White’s future:
“While the Indians gave up considerable talent and Ubaldo was never likely to get the Tribe into October this year, I like the move a lot more for Cleveland than Colorado…This isn’t a terrible deal for the Rockies. Pomeranz and White should both yield positive big league value, but I think they needed the type of deal the Indians got for Bartolo Colon, the A’s got for Dan Haren, or the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira. The Rockies got a guy who’ll really help their rotation in Pomeranz, but is very unlikely to ever be better than Jimenez; a talented-but-flawed prospect in White who’s probably more effective in the bullpen long-term, and a solid-throw in who may help but won’t be a difference maker in Joe Gardner. The overall package the Rockies received wasn’t awful but it was less than what the Royals got for Zach Grienke, a very similar talent with a year less of team control.”

Just to be clear, this is a guy who mainly follows prospects and who has no dog in this fight and is simply attempting to quantify the assets (and club control associated with those assets) in this deal. The line that Pomz is “very unlikely to ever be better than Jimenez” is rather jarring as, when the trade was made, it was written (here) that Jimenez was what most would hope Pomeranz to eventually be and the timeframe of when Pomeranz legitimately figured to achieve that level of success (placed against the backdrop of the current roster) played a role in the decision to make the move.

Also, let’s be clear that nobody’s wishing ill will upon White or Pomeranz, in terms of revealing themselves as inherently flawed or injury-prone to simply make this trade look GREAT for the Tribe, but some of the instant analysis of the Ubaldo deal has focused on the fact that both of these guys are in the Colorado rotation NOW, while ignoring the fact that their long-term performance is far from a guarantee.

Certainly, public perception on the trade has been colored by Jimenez’s starts against the Tigers, but does anyone question that a full off-season with Tim Belcher and with some normalcy (and hopefully health) for Ubaldo is going to result in a more mechanically-sound and more consistent Jimenez in 2011?

Now six weeks removed from the Ubaldo deal, it is still painfully early to make any kind of judgment on it, but that doesn’t mean that opinions won’t continue to evolve and change over the course of the next two years…at least.
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The Tribe is finally coming down the final straightaway here after a scintillating and sometimes laborious trip around the track. While the eventual spot in the standings will certainly mark where the Indians finished the season, as we wind down the 2011 season, most realize that one final record over 162 games will not quite do it justice.

A Lazy Sunday Thinking About First

2011-09-11T08:44:00.007-04:00

Looking at that title, let’s be clear about something, no…I’m not thinking about first “place”, for that is pipe dream and a lost cause these days as second place is looking tenuous at best, particularly after this weekend on the South Side. Rather, if you figure that I’m not thinking about 1st place, I’m probably thinking about something else with 1st as the descriptive term (hint – rhymes with “place”) and I’ll get to that in all due time. As we meander our way down that 1st base line, let’s realize that this time of year when every team starts to turn their focus on what they need to do next year to put themselves into a position to compete for the playoffs and while the 2011 Indians were improbably in that position as recently as a week ago, most everyone’s thoughts have turned towards what figures to be an interesting off-season on The Reservation.

Given that it was only a week ago in this space when the thought (however small that thought may have been) existed that the Indians still could make a move in the AL Central, it is amazing how quickly things turned from “this is a group of players that is coming together and has a chance to be REALLY special for the next few years” (read this to feel better about the long-term outlook for the Tribe) to “there are just too many holes to fill with no chance of filling them to even think of competing in 2012” in…oh, about a month. Certainly, the performance of the Indians (and the Tigers) plays a major role in that 180-degree turn towards pessimism, but this Indians team is not devoid of bright spots going forward, much less building blocks to form a strong foundation.

While this isn’t breaking any new ground, the 2011 team is/could be flush with young talent up and down their lineup (Asdrubal, Santana, Choo, Kipnis, Brantley, Chisenhall) that was decimated by injuries and though the pitching staff still has some potentially special players at the top of their rotation (Masterson, Ubaldo), the news that Carrasco will undergo TJ surgery and the implosion of Fausto in the Detroit series now seem to have the sky falling on the North Coast as the Indians have quickly gone from a team that looked to be well-positioned for 2012 and beyond to a unavoidably flawed team in the eyes of some. Though that certainly is not a feeling that is felt throughout all of the fanbase, watching the Tigers run roughshod over the Tribe (and their playoff chances) has definitely turned the focus to next year and what the Indians need to accomplish in the off-season to put themselves (once again, remember) in the mix for a divisional crown…and perhaps more.

While much of that focus for what the Indians “need” has been on adding that “big bat” via trade or FA to sit in the middle of the lineup, one positive development of the last month or so has been that the Indians’ bench for 2012 has started to take shape and, if nothing else can be taken from the end of this season, the fact that the Indians’ “B” lineup (and look to see how they’ve performed over the last month) has been able to hang in there as long as they have should be taken as a positive. Between the performances of Donald, Duncan, Hannahan, and Marson, the Indians may finally have a “homegrown” bench that could fill out the role of Utility IF, RH bench bat, late-inning defensive replacement at the corners, and back-up catcher into 2012 and beyond…and for not a lot of money.

That may not have anyone running out to purchase season tickets for 2012, but after watching the Indians comb through the scrap heap for a number of years to fill those roles, that’s at least a step towards being able to more efficiently managing payroll, where it isn’t deemed “necessary” to add an Austin Kearns or an Orlando Cabrera in an attempt to “buy time” for a young player or to fill out the bench with someone that was known to be flawed and overpriced when signed. Forget the idea that the lineup for next year is pretty easy to envision (except for 1B…but I’ll get to that), the bench is actually looking pretty solid as well as those guys stepped up when they needed to step up, even if they’re contributions weren’t enough to keep pace with the Tigers.

As for that lineup (and that “big bat” and 1B), Acta admitted on Friday what many have known all season when he said, “Right now, first base and third base are positions where we should be looking into improving for next year, whether that’s within or from the outside…Those are positions that you expect some production out of it. You can get away with one of those positions being a defensive one, if you have a lot of offense coming from everywhere else.” If you parse through those (accurate) statements, you can see it as a call to action for a guy like Chisenhall (who responded by hitting 2 HR that night) and LaPorta and an admission that the Indians are more than comfortable going with Hannahan (the “defensive one”) if The Chiz needs more seasoning in AAA at any point next year. While it would seem that some incarnation of Hannahan and Chisenhall will patrol the hot corner for next year (and I’m OK with that), the situation at 1B is foggier, although very little fog is a by-product of the idea that Matt LaPorta is going to be a factor in 2012 as I think that the Indians have admitted to themselves that they need to make plans at 1B for next year (and beyond) without counting on contributions for MaTola.

While Acta said publicly that LaPorta “has had issues with using his legs properly during his swing”, what’s more telling is to read between the lines of Acta’s comment that LaPorta has “worked hard” but that “regardless of what you work on, you still have to have the discipline to get pitches in the zone and do some damage.” Essentially (and this comes as no surprise to anyone paying attention), LaPorta’s issue is with his plate discipline and, placed against what was written by Terry Pluto last week in terms of LaPorta, it doesn’t look to be an easily-rectified issue. Last week, Pluto wrote in his Sunday column last week (which…you HAVE to remember, comes straight from what the Indians are telling him) that “the Indians have been trying to have LaPorta cut down on being such a guess hitter. He commits too early to his swing, guessing a fastball is coming. They want him to be more disciplined at the plate.”

While the “plate discipline” seems to be the talking point on LaPorta from all of the Tribe higher-ups, this admission from the Indians that MaTola is essentially a “guess hitter” is terrifying to me as it means that his problems aren’t mechanical or related to injuries or something that are easily fixed, particularly because a “guess hitter” with LaPorta’s power can crush AAA pitching while looking foolish against the better pitching in MLB. Unsurprisingly, the “guess hitter” LaPorta has a .953 OPS in 483 AAA PA and a .694 OPS in 972 MLB PA with the threat persisting that the only way that LaPorta can truly adjust to not being a “guess hitter” is that the necessary adjustments for him need to come in MLB. That is, if LaPorta heads back down to AAA and crushes the ball again, but relies on his raw ability and continues to “guess” at pitches, feasting on AAA fastballs, there is little room for growth as it doesn’t improve his approach…it only reiterates the idea that he is a talented player, if not a fully-developed hitter. Sadly, the only thing that will challenge him to change his approach will come against MLB pitching, against whom he’s posted a sub-700 OPS in nearly 1,000 PA.

So what are the Indians to do at 1B for next year if this may be who LaPorta is?
Surely, they won’t just hand him and his .694 career OPS the keys to 1B again next Spring Training as they can simply send MaTola to AAA for 2012, as he does have an option left, in the hopes that it provides a wake-up call and he forces himself to make adjustments that other highly-touted power prospects have as they eventually carve out a niche for themselves. But in terms of adding a piece (which is necessary), what’s to say that the Indians’ targeting a top 1B prospect from another team (like Cincinnati’s Yonder Alonso, blocked by Joey Votto) won’t fall into the same downward path that LaPorta seems to be treading?

For as much talk as there is about Yonder Alonso as a trade chip for the Reds to dangle, he had a lower OPS and fewer HR than Cord Phelps did in the International League, with each spending their 2011 season in AAA as 24-year-old players. That’s not meant to make any grand pronouncement on the future of Alonso or Phelps, but it’s easy to forget that LaPorta was the 23rd highest rated prospect prior to 2008 and had a first half of 2008 that put him at the very top of some mid-season prospect lists in 2008 (and go look at these two lists) and was still seen as a Top 25 prospect in baseball as recently as mid-2009.

Now, we’re left to wonder whether MaTola can even be a useful piece as his power is tantalizing, but his plate discipline is holding him back from penciling his name into the 1B spot for 2012 (much less a 25-man roster spot) while he provides a cautionary tale to any idea that the Indians can just find another “blocked” prospect from another organization to acquire because, as we’ve all found out from Matt LaPorta, “top prospect” status is no guarantee of future stardom or even future usefulness. Additionally, if the thought exists that the Indians should be looking at guys like Alonso (and I’m just using him as an example), realize that Kipnis and Chisenhall figure to spend the majority of 2012 in the Cleveland infield and supposing that the 2012 team can contend with three players that are essentially rookies patrolling the infield is a difficult leap to make.

So what are the Indians to do at 1B?
Given the LaPorta “concerns” and with the idea that Santana is going to head back behind the plate (where his bat is more valuable), it certainly seems pretty likely that they’re back to adding a 1B, but as “easy” as that may sound in theory, even if they were to find next year’s version of Casey Kotchman, a good glove guy who had struggled offensively to a certain point in his career and who was able to find some consistency when given the chance this year, I can’t imagine that adding a “scrap heap” guy like Kotchman (who has no power) would do much to assuage fears that the Indians were going to attempt to fill the 1B hole next year by “outsmarting” the rest of MLB.

On the FA market, Mike Cuddyer and Lance Berkman represent the two most intriguing names on the FA front as each is RH, can play 1B for a year while spending some time in LF or at DH, then slide over to become a full-time DH when Hafner’s 2013 option is declined. But the question becomes what each will command on a FA market, particularly considering that the teams who may be targeting Pujols and Fielder may see Cuddyer and Berkman as Plan B and Plan B1. Actually, that’s a nice segue into what the FA market all could mean for the Indians and their 1B…um, dilemma as a lot of this game of musical chairs with 1B around the league is going to depend on where Pujols and Fielder land. That is to say, a team (and there are lots interested) could add Pujols or Fielder, making a young 1B available or a situation could take a player out of the Indians’ potential plans, like if the Cardinals lose Pujols, increasing the likelihood that Berkman stays in St. Louis in an attempt to fill the void that Pujols could leave in America’s heartland.

To that end, Bob Nightengale in USA Today reports that, “there are rumblings that the Florida Marlins, who move into a new stadium in 2012 and may be looking to make a splash, will be a big player in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes”. While that may be hard to envision, remember when another NL East team was moving into a stadium and wanted to make a big “splash” in the FA market to draw fans?

Seriously, go read that article (here’s the link again) about how Thome was signed by the Phillies – a team that was “unwilling to spend money in the past” – as they attempted to generate fan interest before moving into Citizens’ Bank Park in 2004…the Phillies, “unwilling to spend money”.
Oh, how TV revenue and market size have affected MLB in less than 10 years…

Regardless (and back to the 1B “issue” this year, not 8 years ago), it would certainly be difficult to envision a noted “skinflint” like Jeff Loria pulling something like this off. But if Loria really is going to be making baseball decisions as he is purported to be, perhaps with the Marlins moving into that new stadium in 2012, they could make a play for one of those “Big Two” of Fielder or Pujols, which would make a player like Gaby Sanchez perhaps available. Though Sanchez is 27 years old, he has posted a positive OPS+ every year he’s been in the league and is under club control through the 2015 season, not even being eligible for arbitration until after the 2012 season. Sanchez is a RH bat that has some pop and doesn’t strike out all that much and while it hard to picture Loria trading a young and “cheap” ballplayer given his…um, reputation in terms of spending, it is worth noting that the Marlins owe Hanley Ramirez $46.5M over the next three years and Josh Johnson $27.5M over the next two years, so they have spent big money on players in the past. Perhaps Loria and his band of merry bean-counters look at a guy like Fielder (who spent his formative years in FLA) and the gate that he would attract to a new stadium and become a surprise player in the 1B sweepstakes.

Given the struggles of the Marlins’ closer Leo Nunez (who is about to become even more expensive), perhaps the Marlins could parlay Sanchez into some bullpen help with the idea that maybe Loria would be interested in adding a former Miami Hurricane to the back-end-of-the-bullpen to generate fan interest as he moves into his new digs. Of course, Sanchez is also a former Hurricane (and Chris Perez’s former teammate), but the point of all of this conjecture is to point out that, depending upon where Pujols and Fielder end up, the Indians could find themselves a trade partner for a team that may be “upgrading” at 1B with Pujols and Fielder, giving the Indians an opportunity to talk about a player that may have not been thought to be previously available.

Another team (and affected player) to watch in terms of off-season FA activity might be the Texas Rangers, who could use their HUGE market-size advantage (and the TV dollars that come with it…and remember this, if you question the TV revenue disparity based on market) to distance themselves from the AL West pack. Perhaps the Rangers make a play for Pujols or Fielder, making a guy like Mike Napoli available to the Tribe. If you remember (of even if you don’t), Napoli was a player that was identified (here) as one who could have been a fit in Cleveland last off-season and given that he was traded (twice) last off-season and with his performance in 2011, you have to wonder if Napoli was the move they should have made going into 2011.

Of course, nobody assumed that the Indians would make the push they did in the AL Central in 2011, but Napoli was dealt by the Blue Jays (who had just acquired him from the Angels) to the Rangers for the 31-year-old reliever Frank Francisco and cash. This year, Napoli has 24 HR and a .995 OPS as a RH bat while playing C, 1B, and DH. Whether the Rangers would be willing to move Napoli because they’re looking to move Michael Young to 1B or if they’re looking to make a bigger “splash” in the FA market for a bat and the Rangers are one of the teams (according to MLBTR, at least) that could have interest in either Pujols or Fielder this off-season, remains to be seen, but Napoli’s RH power bat would look awfully good in the middle of the Tribe’s 2012 lineup, even if he’s only under club control through the 2012 season and is about to get a BIG payday in his final year of arbitration.

Given the names that are out there that the Indians don’t figure to be in on (Pujols and Fielder) and how the 1B market will evolve after those two dominoes fall, the addition of a 1B for next year is going to be a fluid situation until some of the dust settles with Pujols and Fielder. All told, this “new” Tribe Front Office was aggressive and unafraid to make moves that put the best team on the field when the possibility of contention found them in mid-May and, while it is possible that they do slink back towards the inactivity of previous off-seasons, given the Ubaldo deal, I have trouble seeing the Tribe brass standing pat at 1B or just waiting for the ENTIRE market to shake out and picking through the detritus at the end of the off-season in an attempt to cobble together an effective situation out of ineffective options.

Remember, the last time the Indians were attempting to capitalize on a group of talented players as they “went” for the AL Central, the Tribe inked Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $20.5M deal and when the Indians last attempted to make the jump from “young team” to playoff contender, they inked Kevin Millwood to a 1-year, $7M deal. When they’ve been in similar situations, the organization has spent some money (some wisely, some…not so much), but they would seem to have some money to spend to upgrade the lineup.

While that money is neither Pujolsian nor Fieldersian, it is more likely that the money thrown at those two affects the 1B landscape across in a way that the Indians can perhaps capitalize upon. Whether that means that players like Gaby Sanchez or Mike Napoli (or whomever) become available or if it takes Mike Cuddyer and Lance Berkman into financial deals that the Indians should avoid remains to be seen, but the Tribe will unquestionably look to upgrade themselves at 1B in the off-season. Given the failures of LaPorta (and the youth of the infield elsewhere), their target is unlikely to be a hot-shot prospect waiting for a chance as they’ll likely set their sights on a more established player that can settle into the middle of their lineup to provide stability to a lineup that (if healthy) has the potential to be dangerous.

Who that player is and how the Indians go about their pursuit of said player is an answer that is probably a few months off…even if speculating on it has already begun.

Snuffed Out

2011-09-06T22:02:00.005-04:00

With the Tigers taking the first two games in this “must-sweep” series for the Tribe, it would certainly seem that the die has been cast in the AL Central and all that’s left in this divisional race is whether the Indians will be able to hold onto their grip of 2nd place and how many games the Tigers eventually win the division by. Any flicker of hope that may have resided in the hearts of anyone on the morning of Labor Day has been sufficiently extinguished as the Indians have been passed up and beaten away by a team that is superior to them, as both teams are currently constructed.

While that may be tough for fans to read given that hope does spring eternal, the sheer math involved (and I know a lot of you hate math) just make it nearly impossible for the Indians to get back into this thing. Now that they are 8 ½ games back with only 23 to play (and the Tigers have only 20 games left to play), the Indians would have to go on more than just a considerable tear while the Tigers would have to go into a complete freefall for the outcome that we all see coming to be changed. Yes, they still have the 3-game set in Detroit to close out the season and the Indians are starting to welcome back the likes of Grady and Kipnis, but the Indians and Tigers would BOTH have to do a 180-degree turn from the direction each has been heading in for the past month for that final series of the season to be relevant.
That…that’s just not going to happen.

Though the thought was that the Indians might be able to take control of their own destiny by facing the Tigers (and the White Sox) so much down the stretch and make a play for the division by doing the dirty work on their own, it is fairly obvious that the Indians are simply too short-handed as they exist in the 1st full week of September to make that push. The topic has been covered ad nauseum (in this space, admittedly), but with Sizemore, Hafner, Choo, Kipnis, and Brantley all either on the DL or attempting to recapture IMMEDIATE success when coming off the shelf, the Indians weren’t going to win with what amounted to their “B” lineup for any extended stretch and that is about to bear itself out as the month wears on.

That’s not to discount the fact that the Indians hung in this thing a lot longer than most would have assumed (and I’m talking recently…not the whole “they’ll come back to Earth by Memorial Day” crowd), but as the injuries mounted and the offense that struggled to score runs even when healthier began to show itself for what it was (a lineup full of bench players and youngsters), it certainly foretold a finish out of the money this season. Though the likes of Hannahan and Donald and Duncan gave it their most valiant effort in the last week or so (to say nothing of the performance of Cabrera and Santana all year long), when the Tigers are able to stick Miggy Cabrera in the middle of their lineup and surround him with some nice offensive pieces, we’re not talking about an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of available talent. Unfortunately, that gap in available talent is what has separated (and will continue to separate) the two teams down the stretch.

At Monday’s game, I got into a conversation with a knowledgeable Tigers’ fan in front of me (and, as a quick aside here, how nice is it when you can talk baseball intelligently with someone who comes from a different viewpoint, particularly in the context of a divisional rival) and the most striking words that he said all day were, “boy, the Tigers sure are lucky that you guys are as banged up as you are”. What gets lost in all of this as the Tigers zoom right by the Tribe and continue to distance themselves is not only that the Indians were unlucky in all of this, but that the Tigers seemed to be catching breaks coming down the stretch in the last couple of weeks as often as the Tribe was experiencing breaks…and tweaks, and pulls.

Sure, Boesch went down with a thumb injury, but the Tigers are truly cresting at the right time, nearly fully healthy, with a monster at the top of their rotation and with all of their (older) players now productive after starting off the year so slowly. While the Indians came out of the gate fast and have limped their way around the final couple of turns, the Tigers just kept building speed as they now suddenly look like a legitimate playoff factor in the American League instead of the sacrificial AL Central lamb that is normally placed on the altar of the AL East Wild Card at the beginning of October.

Maybe a monstrous collapse still awaits Detroit, but that’s awfully hard to see right now, given the way that they’re going. Just as important, an unprecedented tear of victories for the Tribe is equally difficult to imagine with the team as bruised and battered as they are. That’s not to say that either situation is still inherently impossible, as the Tigers have coughed up leads this late in the season. In case you don’t remember, they had the bottom fall out in 2009, when they went saw a 7-game divisional lead on September 6th whittle away to nothing as September wore on, with the Twins catching them on the final day of the season, then losing a 12-inning one-game playoff to said Twins.

However, while it isn’t inherently impossible or unprecedented for the Tigers to collapse, the likelihood of that happening PLUS the Indians catching fire to overcome such a large margin in such a short amount of time decreases with each passing game and drops off of a cliff with each passing loss, particularly the 10-1 beat down on Tuesday night with Verlander waiting on Wednesday. Though most have been waiting to write the Indians off for about 4 months now, the truth is staring them right in the face, that they don’t have the horses to go to battle with Detroit and that the AL Central crown, which seemed silly to think about in the pre-season, won’t be residing in Cleveland at the end of the year.

That’s not to say that the Indians should simply step up to the podium for their concession speech, thank everyone for their support and move on as they still have a month of the season left to play to see what Grady looks like (though I think they pick up his option, just as they’ll pick up Carmona’s…Tuesday’s implosion or not) and to give some of their players an opportunity to get healthy and perhaps even regain some momentum before the season ends.

At this point, it becomes about building on the positives and attempting to end the season on a positive note as the bright spots of this surprise season – Asdrubal’s emergence, Santana’s recovery, Masterson’s dominance, the bullpen, Kipnis’ first taste, the aggressiveness of the Front Office – have the potential to serve as building blocks for what certainly seems to be a much brighter future than anyone would have (or did) predicted at the dawn of the season.

Certainly work needs to be done (and I’m not just talking recovery of principal players) as the Indians are far from a perfect team going forward, even if you can start to see a number of the pieces lining up for the future around the diamond and on the pitching staff. However, lest anyone think this slow crawl down in the “GB” column (which coincided with the Tigers becoming otherworldly hot) puts a dark cloud over the season as a whole, the Indians hung around the top of the division and were in 2nd place on Labor Day, still above .500, with talented young players who have all now essentially arrived and have started to acquit themselves to MLB, in the midst of a pennant race no less.

As disappointing as the Indians not being able to sweep the Tigers may be (and barring that major collapse by Detroit over the next three weeks), the Indians’ 2011 season has been a ride worth taking. Now, as reality has set in on the team and as the Tribe tries to soldier through the final month of the season, the focus turns to an all-too-familiar place for Cleveland sports fans – next year.