Tomahawks Aimed at Third Place

Passing the Royals in the standings (hopefully for good), it’s time to set our sights another step up that ladder – 3rd place in the Central. With the idea that the Indians are have to go one rung at a time, let’s get off with some tomahawks:
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The big news of the week was the MLB Draft occurring over the course of a couple of days, which is really just like the NFL Draft except for the fact that there’s no Mel Kiper, Jr. involved. Oh, and you’ve never heard of 99.9% of these guys prior to the Draft and the next time that you may hear one of their names is in about 2 or 3 years.

Obviously, that’s going a little overboard in terms of minimizing the draft and its impact on an organization; but the MLB Draft is an oddity in terms of looking at where players are drafted and which players are actually the most significant acquisitions. To wit, the Indians’ second pick last year, Trey Haley (#76 overall) received a $1.25M signing bonus, or about $50,000 more than their first pick, Lonnie Chisenhall (#29 overall). The player they gave the third biggest signing bonus to last year, TJ House (who got $750K as a signing bonus, didn’t get drafted until the 16th round, and the 22nd round pick, Bryce Stowell, got the 5th biggest bonus…more than the 5th round pick Zach Putnam and the same amount as the 7th round pick Tim Fedroff.

If all of that sounds confusing it is, but what I think I’m getting at is that it takes a while to parse through what exactly happened in the MLB Draft until the actual signings take place and information begins to emerge regarding who signs for what.

All of that being said, looking through Tony Lastoria’s snapshot analysis of the picks that the Indians did make, it’s hard not to notice these facts via Tony:
- 20 of the top 30 picks were pitchers
- 28 of the top 30 picks were from college
- No High School player was taken until the 24th round

With the caveat that the casual fan doesn’t really have a good sense of which players are available and if the draft is “heavy” on a particular position (where are you Todd McShay?), there is probably something that can be gleaned from the way that the Indians drafted. That is that the Indians saw their depth issues in the organization, particularly with pitching, and decided to add arms that would factor in over a shorter amount of time and might be able to move quickly into serious consideration at the upper levels rather quickly.

What that means for a guy like Alex White or Joe Gardner (our guest on Smoke Signals) remains to be seen, but the advancement of a Zach Putnam to AA only a year after being drafted must have played a role in the Indians hopefully filling out their depth in the bullpen and rotation with some arms, preferably power arms like White and Gardner. According to Tony, both White and Gardner have a 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, sinker for each) which could be a factor in both ultimately slotting in the bullpen rather quickly which, as we’ve seen this year, is a priority and one that may have been addressed this week in the MLB Draft.
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Back topside, here’s a little amusing story about what it feels like to be an Indians fan these days – even if it’s a 2 ½ year old Indians fan. For some background, I should mention that The DiaperTribe is now at a stage where everything merits a question and has developed an irrational attachment to one Grady Sizemore…yes, irrational even by my measure. He sleeps under a Grady blanket, says that he’s Grady whenever we play catch (according to him, Grady is the pitcher, the hitter, the catcher, AND the umpire), and says prayers for Grady every night…right after Grandma and Grandpa.

Anywho, as Tuesday night’s game started against the Royals, he asked me if Grady was playing and (somehow) knows that he bats first. No sooner could I get out of my mouth that Grady was, in fact, not playing than did The DiaperTribe spot Francisco striding to the plate.

His reaction was not unlike what we’ve all been feeling for a while now:
DiaperTribe – “No Francisco daddy…me want Grady!”
Me – “Grady’s still hurt, buddy.”
As a quick aside here, around these parts we’re blaming Grady’s elbow injury on him banging it on the table because a 2 ½ year old has trouble grasping inflamed lining around the left elbow.
DiaperTribe (in the whining voice that is becoming the bane of my existence) – “Me want Grady better…no Francisco.”
Me – “Maybe Grady will play later.”
DiaperTribe (tears welling) – “No later…me want Grady now.”
Me – “Tell me about it. Now stop crying and let’s work on that curveball.”
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Watching this lineup get shuffled around on a nightly basis in terms of who’s playing where and with a different lineup seemingly every night, is anyone else impressed by the Indians are 3rd in MLB in runs scored with only three players with an OPS in the top half among the 170 qualified players in MLB? That would be, by the by, El Capitan (20th in MLB in OPS), The BLC (48th in MLB in OPS), and Asdrubal just making the cut (79th in MLB in OPS).

How is this happening?
Maybe The Atomic Wedgie does, in fact, know what he’s doing with this lineup. Lord knows he does one whale of a job running the Parks & Recreation department of Pawnee, Indiana.

Wait…that’s not him?
You mean he doesn’t grow a mustache in the offseason and work a second job like Lou Brown used to sell tires?
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Speaking of Lou Brown, is it too early to say that it’s going to take 85 wins to capture the AL Central and the Indians are going to need 58 wins to get there? Is it too early to see a little cardboard cut-out to get this thing into gear because (and I’m paraphrasing here), “I figure it's gonna take 32 more victories to win this thing. Every time we win, we peel a square.”



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That’s it for me for the week.
No Lazy Sunday this weekend as I’ll be in Dayton for a college reunion (to claim my rightful spot at the bw-3 on Brown before some late night Tim’s hijinks), which will also be attended by the designated pinch-hitter for Lazy Sundays, Mr. t-bone.

See you when we’re perched in 3rd. looking to track down the Twins for 2nd.

Holding Onto The Ladder

Is anyone else finding themselves going from soaring highs to abysmal lows with this Indians’ team from day to day, with very little in-between ground? After a solid win in which the team puts it all together, the thought process enters my mind that the eminently winnable AL Central looks feasible to take, only to be replaced by the thought that all is lost the very next day after a loss in which the bats go silent or the starter implodes to questioning the whole season and, even deeper than that, the whole organization?

Obviously, an MLB season is not a nice straight line in terms of game to game emotion, but watching this team every game is a struggle – from the frustration of seeing the lineup posted and seeing which amalgamation of complementary and fringe players are playing where, to gripping every pitch thrown by a “retread” reliever, to just waiting for the other shoe to drop in any game – basically, waiting for the dirt to be thrown on the grave that the 2009 feels like on those down days.

But, guess what?
Despite that sickening feeling and despite that the fact that the team is limping and flawed, this Indians team is somehow making up some ground in the AL Central. No, the “ascent” has certainly not been pretty or a pleasure to watch, but since the Indians’ low-water mark of 14-26 (which they “achieved” after the Kerry Wood implosion in KC), here are the records for the AL Central:
Cleveland – 12-8 (.600 winning percentage)
Minnesota – 10-9 (.526 winning percentage)
Chicago – 11-10 (.523 winning percentage)
Detroit – 11-10 (.523 winning percentage)
Kansas City – 3-15 (.167 winning percentage)

The Indians, playing through injuries and dealing with the loss of ineffective players, demoted to work through their issues, are slowly making their way up the ladder in the AL Central, the only thing that really matters right now. Step one was accomplished on Tuesday night, working out of the cellar and seeing the Tigers get rolled by the Red Sox and Angels and seeing the broken down (and seemingly already beaten) White Sox up close and personal this past weekend, one realizes that the Indians have been playing just as well (or poorly, depending upon how you look at it) as the rest of the division…and that none of these teams is going to run away and hide with the AL Central.

Essentially, all the teams have come back to the pack in terms of playing at or near .500 baseball and the Indians, as imperfect as they are and as unimpressive as they look on paper, are putting together some quality baseball games to close the gap in the Central.

The thin rotation has shown signs of stability with Lee and Pavano leading the way and Huff and Sowers showing promise in their last few starts. Yes, Tomo Ohka is in the rotation, but Ohka will only get a few more starts before Jake Westbrook is allegedly ready to return to the rotation, with Aaron Laffey following closely behind to either replace the pitcher who has proven himself to be less effective between Huff and Sowers or to return to the bullpen if a greater need is found there and Huff and Sowers are able to cobble together consistency over the next month. Could the Indians simply hang on in their rotation until the cavalry arrives and keep it close in the Central until the rotation becomes whole with Lee, Pavano, Westbrook, Laffey, and Huff?

Who knows, but even if the rotation has their off days, the Indians’ offense may be able to carry the load. Inexplicably, the team is third in MLB in runs scored with only three offensive players with an OPS over .800 with 75 or more AB (El Capitan, The BLC, and Asdrubal) and won a game on Sunday, scoring 8 runs (!) with a lineup that looked like this:
Francisco – RF
Carroll – 2B
Martinez – DH
Choo – LF
DeRosa – 3B
Shoppach – C
Gimenez – 1B
Valbuena – SS
Crowe – CF

See what I mean now by the players designed to be complementary pieces being asked to fill key roles on the team and the AAA players being asked to step in immediately to become complementary pieces?

But, the results are there and can’t be argued with as the Indians offense, somehow…some way, is putting together an impressive body of work with Sizemore out (and really not 100% to begin with), Cabrera out, Hafner not being able to play everyday, Garko revealing himself to be a platoon player who is a defensive liability, and Shoppach striking out an alarming rate.
Is the augmentation of this lineup happening from the minors saving the season?

I wouldn’t go that far yet, but some of the players contributing like Gimenez and Valbuena (and even to a lesser extent Crowe) are playing the roles of the complementary players pretty well. Rather than giving too much credit to the youngsters, the onus is being carried by the heart of the lineup, namely Martinez and Choo, who are providing stability while players like Carroll and DeRosa are stepping up, in terms of production, at a time when their contributions are badly needed. If they can continue to excel until Hafner can get into a groove, and until Cabrera can come back healthy, the Indians may be able to continue this surprising offensive onslaught.

As for the Achilles’ heel of the team to date, the bullpen, the group of veteran “retreads” that saved the Indians’ relief corps from themselves continues to provide steady and consistent innings. While realizing that Matt Herges is currently the 8th inning set-up guy (and is doing one whale of a job doing it) and seeing guys like Aquino and Vizcaino come into games to protect a lead and succeed, it’s time to acknowledge that these vets have saved the bullpen. While the “save” may not have been expected and while it may not last, Rafael Perez has returned with some semblance of his former self and Joe Smith has now returned, so the bullpen may finally be getting right and deep.

All told, the Indians are hanging on ever so loosely and, while it may not be according to plan, but the kinks are getting worked out and the Indians are keeping pace (and even climbing the divisional ladder) because they’re in the AL Central and not the AL East or AL West

Prior to Tuesday’s game, the Indians were 3 games back of 2nd in the AL Central with the rest of the division running in place and allowing the Indians to not become buried in this swampy mess of a division. With players potentially returning to the rotation (Westbrook and Laffey) and the lineup (Cabrera and Sizemore) from injury and perhaps more help coming from the minors to help the bullpen (Sipp, assuming he returns, and Putnam) and the lineup (LaPorta and perhaps even Brantley or Santana), the Indians find themselves attempting to stay close in the AL Central until they can get healthy and, let’s face it, get better.

Until that happens though, the Indians will continue to attempt to win games, or at least play .500, with a team that may not look pretty or merit much optimism; but they’ve been doing it for about three weeks now, much to the surprise of…well, everyone.

Lazy Sunday Trying to Tread Water

One step forward and two steps back is certainly not the way to make up ground in a race, but the Indians find themselves once again simply trying to tread water in an increasingly winnable AL Central…just maybe not winnable for them the way that injuries have forced their complementary players into core roles and their fringe players into complementary roles. As this all shakes out over the next three weeks though before the DL (hopefully) gets a little less crowded, let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday:

The big news of the week was the deep demotion of Carmona, whose apparent Faustian Bargain of 2007 has come due as he now finds himself under the hellishly hot summer sun in Arizona to find what has apparently left him. It seems as if the depths to which Carmona found himself sinking to with each passing start are just as deep as the Indians think Carmona’s problems appear to be as he’s not going to Columbus or Akron or even Lake County (and all of the “bright lights” there)…no, he’s going back to be rebuilt from the bottom up in the hopes that the 23-year-old pitcher whose 2007 season was on par with that of Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia can be found amongst the cacti.

Whether that can be accomplished or not remains to be seen, but there’s no question that this move was going to come if it wasn’t already overdue as ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer asserted, saying:
The only thing Carmona did well last year was keep the ball in the ballpark, which presumably was due to a combination of his sinking fastball and his unwillingness (or inability) to throw the ball through the strike zone…I suspect that the Carmona Experiment is over for not just today, but for some time. Whatever made Carmona a Cy Young candidate in 2007 seems to have completely disappeared. And now, every time Carmona pitches he just embarrasses himself and the rest of the organization.

Can anybody find the counter-argument to that?

Back on March 12th, I wrote this regarding Carmona’s importance to the Indians’ season:
As much hand-wringing as there has been about the middle-to-back-of-the-rotation (admittedly by me), I still think that the key to the Indians’ season is which Fausto Carmona shows up in 2009… as the difference between Carmona v.2008 and Carmona v.2007 showing up this year has the potential to be a huge factor in the difference between an AL Central Championship and irrelevance by the All-Star Break.

I think it’s fair to say that we have an answer on one of the counts at the beginning of June – that would be Carmona v.2008 and the “irrelevance by the All-Star Break” may not be far behind if this team can’t at least tread water until Westbrook and Laffey are (allegedly) ready to come back in about three weeks.

Terry Pluto hits on the descent of Carmona (amongst other things) and puts the ugly numbers out there for all to see in terms of his inability to throw strikes. The whole ordeal is frustrating, if not completely mystifying, but what the Indians are doing with him may be just what he needs and is not without precedent (as Pluto references in his piece) as Doc Halladay underwent a similar “rebuild” back in 2001, the comprehensive story of which can be found told very effectively here.

By the way, if anyone is in Goodyear reading this and spot this book (referenced in the Halladay story) arrive at the facility from a Cleveland address, please forward it along to Fausto.
Thanks.

Staying with rotational issues, one of the “ones that got away” that fans often bemoan can apparently be had for the “right price”, according to Ken Rosenthal, as the Orioles are listening to offers for Jeremy Guthrie. Depending upon what the Orioles are looking for in terms of a return, it would be interesting to see how the Indians’ brass approaches his alleged availability as they’re obviously intimately familiar with Guthrie and, now that he has blossomed into a middle-of-the-rotation starter (and don’t misread this as me saying that Guthrie is “the answer” for the rotation as his career ERA+ is 114), it would be an interesting return for a pitcher who the Indians had high hopes for and has turned into exactly the middle-of-the-rotation innings eater that we all took for granted with Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd in terms of performance and consistency for the past few years.

What would the Orioles be looking for?
Who knows and whether the Indians would have an interest in Guthrie just as he’s becoming arbitration-eligible is certainly up for debate – but it raises a good question in terms of how the Indians are likely going to be looking to make some moves to re-make their roster over the next few months.

By now, everyone’s pretty aware that the old George Costanza idea that “I think I figured out a way to get Griffey and Bonds…and it wouldn’t cost us that much” application to moving multiple players with limited ceilings for one great player is nothing more than a pipe dream. But is it possible that some of their more highly-touted prospects who play the same position as one another could become the bait that the Indians use to fill organization holes that have revealed themselves this season?

That is, if the Indians have what looks to be depth at the 1B/LF position in players like LaPorta, Mills, and Weglarz all in AA and AAA without even looking at guys like Brantley or Jordan Brown or the players already topside in Frisco and Garko, doesn’t it stand to reason that they may be able to deal from a position of depth to add some much-needed arms, even if these guys are included in some sort of a package to net some MLB-ready pitchers?

Whatever pieces they may eventually decide to be arbitrary or redundant, can I…um…make a case that Akron catcher Carlos Santana should be held pretty tightly?
Not sure if you’ve heard of this Matt Wieters fella who just came up to catch for the Orioles after topping nearly every prospect list going into the season. If you haven’t, here’s a piece that JoePos did on him with Bill James that puts how much hype he’s received into perspective.

OK, got that?
Check this:
Matt Wieters – AA Bowie 2008 – Age 22
.365 BA / .460 OBP / .625 SLG / 1.085 OPS with 12 HR, 14 2B, 38 BB, 29 K in 250 PA

Carlos Santana – AA Akron 2009 – Age 23
.284 BA / .417 OBP / .547 SLG / .964 OPS with 9 HR, 12 2B, 37 BB, 25 K in 192 PA

While Wieters numbers are a bit better, look at the HR, 2B, and BB/K rates of the two with Wieters having more plate appearances and know that Wieters BABIP in Bowie last year was .378 while Santana’s in Akron this year is .293, which is obviously going to have some bearing on the BA and OBP numbers to date.

While we may not see any websites like this pop up about Carlos Santana or see statements (shamelessly stolen from the linked site above and altered for my own pleasure) emerge that “Carlos Santana Sometimes Impatiently Homers From The On Deck Circle” and “Carlos Santana Picked Himself To Be The Best Man At His Wedding. It Was His Only Option”…um yeah, he still looks like the real deal he was purported to be.

Back to the burgeoning trading season that seemed to be kicked off with the McLouth deal, Nick Cafardo at Boston.com has an interesting piece taking a look at the landscape of what teams are looking for and what teams are offering as well as asking GM’s “when” the right time to make a deal is. Milwaukee GM Bob Melvin (who may have some interest in a certain Cleveland IF) has an interesting comment about multiple teams looking for hitting but not being willing to part with pitching to get it. Isn’t that the situation that the Indians likely find themselves up against in an attempt to look for MLB-ready arms?

Deeper in the Cafardo piece, he notes that Carl Pavano (if he were to be traded) could not be dealt until after June 15th (which is, of course in about a week) and touches on the Mark DeRosa trade rumors, saying that “there are still a lot of rumblings about his availability. With so many teams needing hitters and good chemistry guys, the Indians may have to consider a deal. The Giants are pounding the door for hitting, and DeRosa's name has popped up in their internal meetings. The Giants would part with lefty Jonathan Sanchez.”

Let’s see, Sanchez is a 26-year-old LHP who throws a low-90’s fastball and has compiled an ERA of 5.06 with a WHIP of 1.50 over the last two years starting in the dreadful NL West while walking 6.2 batters per 9 innings this year, which is a little higher than that of FAUSTO CARMONA’s 6.1 this year.
A soft-tossing LHP on the south side of 25 with control issues?
Pass.

With the 2009 Draft coming up on Tuesday (quick show of hands who knew that), now might be a good time to get an update on some of the principals of the 2008 Draft class, via Tyler Chirdon at the LGT. Tyler wrote a tremendous piece in the IA2K9 regarding how the amount of the signing bonuses doled out to the draftees/signees of the 2008 crop are a better indication of which players were thought most highly of after all of the signings were complete.

Finally, Indians’ fans everywhere bid a fond farewell to former owner Dick Jacobs, who passed away late this week. In my 32 years as an Indians’ fan, there have been players that have donned the Tribe uni and need only to be mentioned by their first name for recognition of their accomplishments on the field – Jimmy, Manny, Albert, Sandy, Omar, Kenny, Charlie, CC, Grady, Victor, and so on.

But none of these players would have existed in Cleveland if not for the one man about whom Terry Pluto so eloquently wrote about at his passing in terms of what he did for the city and for the Indians’ organization. For that reason, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dick Jacobs is the greatest Cleveland Indian of my lifetime.
Rest in Peace, Mr. Jacobs…and thank you.

Tomahawks Still Looking Up

Well, starting a crucial 9-game set against divisional foes with a 1-2 record is not ideal and watching the player that many identified as the key to the season in Fausto Carmona likely headed to the minors to see if he can find our beloved Focused Fausto somewhere between his ears.

Nevertheless, it’s time to watch those tomahawks fly…
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Watching Jeremy Sowers and Dave Huff log their most successful starts of the year to date with some guy with a fantastic beard behind the dish, I thought it might be interesting to see how all of the Indians’ starters are faring with different catchers calling the games for them.

Obviously, Lee always uses Shoppach and generally Carmona always uses Vic as their personal catchers; but did anyone realize that Shoppach has caught every one of Pavano’s innings this year as well?

I sure didn’t…and digging deeper, there may be something that these numbers tell us that foretell what the arrangement at C and 1B may look like for the foreseeable future. Here are the opposing hitters’ batting lines for each pitcher currently residing in the Indians’ rotation with the respective catchers calling their games through Wednesday’s game:
Lee
To Shoppach - .292 BA / .329 OBP / .375 SLG / .704 OPS in 349 plate appearances

Pavano
To Shoppach - .292 BA / .332 OBP / .452 SLG / .784 OPS in 268 plate appearances

Carmona
To Shoppach - .400 BA / .500 OBP / .867 SLG / 1.367 OPS in 18 plate appearances
To Martinez - .266 BA / .374 OBP / .399 SLG / .773 OPS in 259 plate appearances

Huff
To Shoppach - .333 BA / .350 OBP / .487 SLG / .837 OPS in 40 plate appearances
To Martinez - .412 BA / .487 OBP / .853 SLG / 1.340 OPS in 39 plate appearances

Sowers
To Shoppach - .188 BA / .381 OBP / .188 SLG / .568 OPS in 21 plate appearances
To Martinez - .298 BA / .375 OBP / .579 SLG / .954 OPS in 64 plate appearances

Noticing anything about those last two?
Now, how about the player that might re-enter the starting rotation once he’s healthy?
Laffey
To Shoppach - .258 BA / .303 OBP / .290 SLG / .593 OPS in 33 plate appearances
To Martinez - .255 BA / .375 OBP / .340 SLG / .715 OPS in 112 plate appearances

Yes, these are based on wildly small samples and how much of this is the pitcher or how much of it can be attributed to the match-ups in each game is up for debate, but there is an interesting trend that is obvious in these limited samples.

That is that Lee and Pavano always use Shoppach and, while the sample sizes may be small, here are the differences in OPS Against for the young LHP, whose numbers are better when throwing to ShopVac:
Laffey - .122 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C
Sowers - .386 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C
Huff - .503 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C

Think now about Laffey coming back with the very real possibility that Carmona does go down to AAA to work on his mechanics – isn’t there a greater possibility of Show Pack catching more frequently with Victor at 1B more often if Shoppach has better results with Lee, Pavano, Sowers, Huff, and Laffey?

Remember how Sowers said that he felt comfortable throwing to Sal Fasano last year?
Maybe there’s something to this whole “personal catcher” thing as Show Pack’s season behind the dish for CP Lee’s Cy campaign could have taught him something about calling a game for a LHP who throws in the low-90’s. It stands to reason that Shoppach could find himself getting everyday starts as Catcher, depending upon what the Indians do with Carmona, which would then move Martinez into a full-time role at 1B and decrease any…and I mean ANY chance that El Capitan would join the other players on the DL by having him shed the tools of ignorance for an extended period of time.
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But wait, you say, if Vic’s going to be relegated to 1B, where does that leave our RBI hero, Ryan Garko…Polo?

Since we’re working on batting lines, how does this strike you?
Garko vs. LHP
.344 BA / .432 OBP / .594 SLG / 1.026 OPS in 37 plate appearances
Garko vs. RHP
.217 BA / .321 OBP / .337 SLG / .658 OPS in 110 plate appearances

Now if this discrepancy was unusual for Garko, you give him more AB against RHP given that the lineup is awfully thin these days. But the fact of the matter is that Garko’s career OPS against RHP is .756, while his career OPS against LHP is .906, meaning that this isn’t a new development.

With the lineup pretty decimated, Garko still probably merits a start or two until Hafner is ready to come back, regardless of pitcher; but once Hafner makes his way back from the DL, wouldn’t the perfect arrangement be to give Hafner a day off to rest his shoulder from time to time against LHP, let Garko DH for him when they face a LH pitcher?

Please notice that the intimation was that Garko should DH…not play 1B, not play LF, not play RF…no, DH.
Garko hammers LHP and struggles against RHP…Hafner needs days off from time to time to rest his shoulder.
Two birds, one stone.
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Seeing Josh Barfield make his way back to Cleveland after posting a line of .220 BA / .239 OBP / .266 SLG / .505 OPS at age 26 in AAA, cementing his status as a non-option for a start, I thought I'd take a look down at that Columbus roster…and I think I have some exciting news.

What if I told you that there’s a player in Columbus who has posted a line of .328 BA / .359 OBP / .519 SLG / .878 OPS for the Clippers, all this at the still-relatively young age of 25 who seems to have overcome a slow April (.742 OPS) with a strong May (.904 OPS) and has seen his success continue into June (.923 OPS)?

Now, what if I told you that he plays 3B, which would look to be a position of need with Peralta back at SS and DeRosa moving around the field prior to (hopefully) netting a young arm for the team?

Excited yet?
What if I told you that we’re talking about Andy Marte?
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Keeping the gaze fixed on the capital city, watching Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp return from Columbus with some of the kinks (hopefully) worked out, does anyone else wonder why these guys are able to go to AAA and “figure everything out”?

If that’s the case, what’s being done in AAA that isn’t being done in Cleveland…is it just pitching in lower-pressure situations or is it getting more work?

We saw Stomp Lewis come back from Columbus like a house afire last year and, thus far, the results have been positive for Perez and Sipp since their return. Seeing as how a good portion of our bullpen has now spent some time in Columbus before coming up and finding some semblance of effectiveness, what’s going on here?

Could it have something to do with this little nugget, buried in a Ken Rosenthal piece about the new Tigers’ pitching coach and the difference between him and their old pitching coach, Chuck Hernandez?
The Tigers lead the American League in ERA after finishing 12th in pitching last season. Their improved defense is one significant difference. Knapp, it stands to reason, is another. Chuck Hernandez, the team's previous pitching coach, was stronger than Knapp at developing game plans, one Tigers official says. Knapp is stronger at fixing pitchers' mechanics.

Is this an indication that Hernandez struggles at fixing pitchers’ mechanics?
Isn’t this the same Hernandez that sits out in the Indians’ bullpen and watches these guys before they come out?

Obviously, a bullpen coach can only truly do so much since he is…you know, the bullpen coach; but the performance of young relievers after going to AAA to “right themselves” and the rebound of the Detroit pitching staff without Hernandez definitely raises some eyebrows.
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The AL Central race continues to see some teams limp along, where the Twins are suddenly 2 ½ games out despite being 1 game under .500 and where news that Miggy Cabrera has tweaked a hamstring comes on the heels of a Boston sweep of the Motor City Kitties.

Up next, the White Sox then the Royals…not so coincidentally the two teams ahead of the Tribe in the Central standings.

Insult, Then Injury

As the Indians’ nightmarish season rolls on, when not even the midges could save them from Justin Chamberlain’s best start of the season, the newest development in the tumble down the hill is…injuries! With Grady’s elbow finally sending him to the shelf, with El Capitan taking one off of the knee (though it seems he’s OK, and now with Asdrubal walking off the field like Martin Riggs after getting out of a strait-jacket, the Indians’ season just on as the hits just keep on coming…and they’re not coming off of anyone’s bat.

While the injuries may be the reason du jour of what’s gone wrong with the Indians, it goes a lot deeper than that if you simply take a quick look at the Opening Day roster and realize that the players in bold are the only players who have remained on the 25-man roster for the whole year:
C – Martinez
C – Shoppach
1B – Garko
2B – Cabrera
SS – Peralta
3B – DeRosa
LF – Francisco
RF – Choo
CF – Sizemore
OF – Crowe
IF – Barfield
IF – Graffanino
DH – Hafner

SP – Lee
SP – Carmona
SP – Pavano
SP – Reyes
SP – Lewis

RP – Wood
RP – Lewis
RP – Perez
RP – Betancourt
RP – Smith
RP - Kobayashi
RP – Jackson

By a quick count, 13 of the 25 players that the Indians broke Spring Training with have remained on the team, without interruption, for the first 53 games, just shy of the 1/3 mark of the season.

The reason that this is important to look at is because while injuries have certainly played an issue in the decimation of the Opening Day roster, ineffectiveness has played a role that is just as significant. Since you could argue that Carmona and Lewis would have found themselves in Columbus if Rome wasn’t burning around them and that Asdrubal could be headed to the Tribe DL, the number of players that remained healthy AND effective throughout the season from this list is staggeringly low.
CP Lee, Victor, Cabrera (who may have to be scratched from this list tomorrow), The BLC…am I missing anyone?
Pavano? I guess if we’re reaching…but that’s it.

We knew at the outset of the season that some cavalry would be arriving from AAA to fill holes that exposed themselves throughout the course of the season, but watching the roster turnover gives off a sense that leaks are springing up everywhere in the dyke and the fingers that the Indians are sticking in either don’t fit or they’re simply out of fingers to prevent the coming deluge that looks to be all but a certainty at this point.

Of course the news that Grady could be out for two months – which would take us to August – hurts quite a bit in terms of the Indians losing their best player. But, not unlike last year when Victor and Hafner hit the DL after nursing injuries (and where is the learned lesson in all this?), what the Indians were getting from Sizemore prior to the DL stint wasn’t having too much of an effect on a very productive offense, sitting 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 1st in the AL in OBP…all with Sizemore sporting an OPS of .726 in 235 plate appearances.

Yes, Sizemore hurts as he is the Indians’ best player (when healthy), but Betancourt’s injury could be the kill shot to the team’s 2009 hopes (if any still remained) because the majority of the “effective” relievers in the bullpen (Herges, Aquino, Vizcaino) have the capability to stop pitching above their heads and regress back to the veteran bullpen fodder that we all thought they were when they were signed in the off-season to basically fill out the Columbus relief corps.

Essentially, what we’ll see with Sizemore and Betancourt hitting the DL is a further watering down of what was already a flawed team. The Indians, going into the season, hoped that their Opening Day roster could remain moderately productive (and obviously healthy) long enough for some of the reinforcements to arrive; but that just didn’t happen.

There were too many question marks going into the season relating to health and related performance, from Hafner’s shoulder to Martinez’s power and from the hope against hope that Pavano, Reyes, and SLewis could all stay healthy and contribute some meaningful innings, that the Indians needed EVERYTHING to go right for the season to not be what it is today, which certainly looks like a lost cause.

Before anyone throws the white flag up as we’ve just hit June, though, let’s be very honest about this – if the Indians tread water against the Central and don’t make up significant ground in the next three series before Interleague play starts, the writing is on the wall that the team is too flawed and playing too far below optimal capacity to compete. If the Indians flounder, or even just play .500 baseball against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals (the three teams that separate them from 2nd place) before next Friday, it’s very much time to acknowledge that the AL Central (weak as it may be) simply isn’t attainable for this group of players.

If the Indians can start to make up ground and leapfrog some of these teams ahead of them at a time when the other teams’ schedule gets tougher (the Tigers’ next two series are against the Red Sox and Angels) or the other teams’ are losing as a direct result of the Indians winning, the thought would be to attempt to hang on for the expected returns of Jake Westbrook, Aaron Laffey, and maybe Travis Hafner to fortify the roster for what could be a long, winding road to .500 with the hopes that the Tigers fall on hard times.

However, even if the team sticks around or makes things interesting, the shortfalls or questions as to whether some of the principals in the rotation will return at 100% and the lack of viable internal options still point to a trade for this team to augment the rotation and/or bullpen, particularly if Carmona’s struggles continue or if Betancourt’s injury looks to be serious enough that a lengthy DL stint looks likely.

The obvious move is to take the player with the most worth to other teams on the roster who essentially became a redundancy on the roster and an unnecessary luxury when Jhonny Peralta made the move to 3B and move Mark DeRosa for some pitching that can help right off the bat, be it in the rotation or the bullpen. It could be argued that Cabrera’s injury potentially affects this thinking, as Peralta would likely move back to SS, meaning that DeRosa’s old 3B spot would likely be his again, but Jamey Carroll may be able to fill the 3B void for a short time (or even Valbuena) and DeRosa’s usefulness diminishes for the Indians with every start for him in LF and 1B as the Indians organization is awash with guys able to play LF or are playing out of position at 1B.

Before taking a brief hiatus, Castrovince implied that something could be afoot with the Cardinals, looking for a 3B to replace Troy Glaus whose versatility would become an asset upon Glaus’ return. The Cardinals, however, wouldn’t be the only suitor for DeRosa, Teams like the Cubs, the Braves, and the Mets would all figure to have an interest in upgrading their infield and versatility with a veteran like DeRosa.

According to AC, the Cards would offer Mitch Boggs, Chris Perez, or J.P. Walters for DeRosa and if Perez is on the table, this deal should have been done last week. The other teams that may have an interest may have young arms that would intrigue (Cubs – Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart; Braves – Kris Medlen; Mets – Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese), but potentially moving DeRosa goes back to the idea that the Indians need arms as soon as possible to contribute at the MLB level, be it in the rotation or the bullpen. If DeRosa is the piece most likely to net such a piece (and trading him now gets a better return for 4 months of him instead of waiting for July 31st, which would translate into 2 months of him), then the Indians shouldn’t wait to make this move. Plus, seeing how the (allegedly) interested teams have a rooted interest in keeping DeRosa potentially out of the hands of a divisional rival, maybe some sort of bidding war for DeRosa could drive up the price to…say…keep him out of returning to the North Side.

The Indians’ Front Office has some success stories pertaining to flipping veterans for position players (Benuardo for Choo and Cabrera, Blake for Santana), but it’s time to add some arms to this mix, whether the idea be to augment the team for a run at .500 and to get back into the AL Central mix (throwing caution and logic to the wind) or simply to finally load up on some hard-throwing impact starters and relievers that don’t seem to be found internally at the upper levels.

Regardless of whether the Indians make a move with DeRosa or anyone else, the injuries suffered by the Indians in the past week or two certainly has put a damper on any hope that the Indians would be able to hold it together until some of their stalwarts could remain healthy. By no means, however, should these injuries be used as an excuse as the Indians’ season had plenty of unfortunate incidents that took place before these injuries started piling up and made 2009 look more and more like a lost season.

Lazy Sunday Not So Funday

Hey troops,
T-Bone here to slap together a Lazy as Paul wrapping up his brother's wedding festivities. I’ve been off the Tribe radar the past couple days, and upon looking around at the headlines… great googily moogily, this will indeed be a brief Lazy.

Let's get this out of the way first. Thanks Cavs, it was a hell of a ride. Sad, shocking end, but hell of a ride.

CC returned to the Jake last night. Tribe lost.

The Dellucci Era ended Friday, and we wont throw any more dirt on his grave other than the obligatory Dump David Dellucci link. After ridding Cleveland of Casey Blake and Dellucci, I wonder who DDD will target next? As for the Looch, a little birdie told me [as of April] he was dating a Price Is Right model, so at least he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

OK, here's a little more dirt courtesy of Castro:

The Indians signed David Dellucci to a three-year, $11.5 million contract to hit right-handed pitching, right? Well, in three years, Dellucci racked up a grand total of 127 hits off right-handers. That comes out to $90,551.18 per hit off a righty.

That'll buy a lot of Affliction shirts. As a result, Raffy P is back up after pitching nine scoreless innings in C-Bus.

The past few days have not been good injury-wise. Last night Vic leaves the game after fouling one off the shin. He's day-to-day. Sweet! Grady’s bum elbow has landed him on the DL (Chris Gimenez up). Awesome! Pronk’s shoulder is still bothering him and everyone's still scratching their heads. Great! In that same Pronk link, Anthony Reyes is looking at ulner nerve transportation, and 4-6 months recovery. To quote Reyes, "it sucks." Wonderful!

Mr. Pluto touches on DeRosa, LaPorta, the bullpen and the rotation… mentioning some guy named Paul Cousineau in the process (!!!).

Josh Weir at the Canton Repository and his take on “How did the Indians get here?”

Tony Lastoria offers an “Extended Spring Training 101.”

The Lake Erie Crushers open up All Pro Freight Stadium Tuesday in Avon. Ed note: I may be attending said game, and if I do at the very least I'll snag some pictures to share.

Lastly, I’d like to congratulate my brother and sister-in-law, who brought a lovely little girl into the world Friday evening, making me a first-time uncle (and the reason I was off the Tribe radar the past few days). The Bone clan is on cloud nine, congrats M-Bone!

Sure made last night's happenings in Orlando a bit easier to deal with...

Tomahawks with Relief from Unlikely Sources

With the last couple of non-Lazy posts not exactly painting a rosy picture (what with the “I hate this team” declaration to the post-apocolyptic jaunt to the realization that the rotation is a mess) let me reassure you where I stand here.

Lest anyone think that I’m turning into one of those bittermen, happy to sling arrows from afar and decry the position that we may find ourselves in and not look at the positive side of things as I always have, just know that the last few weeks have been nearly impossibly difficult to bear and if it feels like what I’m throwing out here takes you through the roller-coaster of emotions that we’re all on – know that it is precisely that and that the catharsis of writing about this stuff generally makes it a little better for me…as odd as that sounds.

As frustrating as this team has been over the course of the first 50 games, there may be a silver lining to all of these gray clouds as we see that a simple four-game winning streak has the Indians suddenly 3 games out of second place.

By the way, since I wrote that I “hate” this team on the 18th of May, the team is 7-3, so apparently, all I need to do around here is show a little negativity and…the whole season turns around, right?

What, oh what, can I write about that other team that plays down in Gateway to get some good karma going for them for the last couple of games here?

While I think about that, let’s release the ‘hawks:
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If we’re talking about the Tribe getting closer in the Central, it’s worth pointing out that the Tribe has moved up the ladder in terms of worst record in the AL, passing the Oakland A’s for 2nd worst record in the AL…White Sox, that bulls-eye is on your back now.

While that is meant to be amusing and lend a little perspective in terms of getting too excited about a four-game winning streak, the AL Central is really still wide open and the Indians could be looking at a portion of their schedule that they can make up some ground in a hurry.

Want some ridiculous news?
After the Yankees leave town, the next AL East opponent for the Indians is Baltimore…on August 27th. The next AL East opponent not named the Orioles for the Indians (after the Bombers leave town, obviously) is the Boston Red Sox on…wait for it…October 1st.

If there’s any thought that the AL East boasts some of the more talented teams in the AL, know that after Monday, the Indians have 10 games left against them, and only 4 of those games DON’T come against the O’s.

If we’re looking for a silver lining to this start by the Indians, maybe there is something to the fact that their early-season schedule slotted them against some of the heavyweights outside of their division early on and that this will all come out in the wash, with the Central ultimately being won by the team with the best record against the Central.

Longtime readers (going back to the White Sox run in 2005 and the Tigers run in 2006) will know that this my favorite thing to say this time of year if the Indians are scuffling and an unexpected divisional rival is thriving, but…the Tigers can’t keep this up…can they?
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Why the sudden turnaround for the Indians if the rotation looks to be in shambles and the 5th starting spot has become a revolving door?

Buckle up, kids…but it’s the bullpen.
And more specifically, it’s the bullpen NOW populated with veteran “retreads”.

Remember all of those years whey we moaned about Graves and Oldberto and Jose Jimenez and asked why the Indians couldn’t just get over their infatuation with these over-the-hill relievers and just go with the young arms from the get-go?

Um…as is the case with bullpen and construction of a bullpen, scratch that. The Indians bullpen has been settled by Matt Herges, Luis Vizcaino, and Greg Aquino stepping in to mop up for short starts by the rotation and have allowed Rocky Betancourt and Kerry Wood to simply pitch the 8th and 9th innings as some semblance of order has finally emerged in the bullpen.

In the last 9 games, in which the Indians are 7-2 (and which would start the night AFTER the Kerry Wood meltdown in the 9th in KC, here are the numbers for the Tribe’s bullpen:
2.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 32 K, 21 BB in 41 IP over 9 games

I’m not sure how many of you caught those last two numbers there, but 41 IP in 9 games is 4 2/3 IP per game for the bullpen in games that the Indians went 7-2 in BECAUSE of the bullpen.

Throw in the fact that 1 2/3 of those 41 innings were Jensen Lewis’ 5 earned run extravaganza on the night of the comeback and there’s no doubt that those numbers are unbelievable.
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So why the sudden stability and where is this coming from?
Of the six best FIP (which measures how a pitcher pitched regardless of how his fielders fielded) currently residing on the Indians’ pitching staff, an astonishing FOUR are held down by players that have often been described as “retread” signings or acquisitions:
CP Lee – 3.16 FIP
Herges – 3.69 FIP
Pavano – 3.77 FIP
Betancourt – 4.03 FIP
Aquino – 4.16 FIP
Vizcaino – 4.74 FIP
Without getting into WHY these guys even find themselves on the team and how much had to go wrong for one (much less three) to be topside, how is this even happening as these guys have come off of the scrap heap to settle the bullpen?

Can we have whoever did the scouting and recommendation on these guys take a look around the starters that may become available in the near future?
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So, now with this settled bullpen, how do we handle the news that Rafael Perez and Joe Smith are getting ready to re-join the Indians? While this may be a crazy thing to ask given what we’ve seen recently in the bullpen – who goes down to AAA or gets the DFA?

This is crazy to think about, but follow me on this in terms of who has earned the right to stay on the 25-man with their recent performance:
Rotation
Lee
Pavano

Bullpen
Wood
Betancourt
Herges
Lewis
Aquino
Vizcaino

The other pitchers on the 25-man roster, all of whom a case can be made for their demotion would be Carmona, Sowers, Huff, and Ohka (only because he is…you know, Tomo Ohka). So here’s a scary thought - if we’ve already seen a revolving door and the bullpen is showing signs of stability, what happens when Perez and (more specifically) Smith are ready to come up?

In terms of the rotation, I stick with Carmona and hope that Carl Willis can work some magic, give Dave Huff every opportunity to stay on the big-league club because…well, because he’s the Indians best prospect that is available to the team and not at AA, and use that 5th starter spot to get a couple of starts out of…let’s say Jeremy Sowers until Jake Westbrook is (hopefully) ready to come back by the end of June.

With the off days sprinkled around the month of June, it could be 3 or 4 starts we’re talking about between Monday’s game against the Yankees and the last weekend series at home against the Reds if they skip that 5th spot in the rotation from time to time to essentially minimize the damage that can be done from that 5th spot from Sowers, who needs to be told that he is fighting for his future in this organization and that if, when Westbrook is ready to come back, he’s the weakest link, it’s time to look for something more permanent than an apartment in Columbus.

Not exactly confidence-inspiring to make a run at .500 in June, but there it is for the starters.

As for the bullpen, with Perez getting the call-up and the tenure of The Looch officially over, you would think that Ohka goes down when Hafner is ready to emerge to make the bullpen whole again. Obviously, Perez’s return puts a LHP in the bullpen and allows him to work his way into the bullpen slowly as they’ve done fine in the last week or two without him and with the way they’re going now, if they can get the production from The Scarecrow that they’re used to, that’s just gravy.

Smith’s readiness, however, presents a bit of a different problem as the reliever who has probably been the most inconsistent that would figure to be in the bullpen when Smith is given a clean bill of health would be Jensen Lewis. Lewis, however, has been serving as a kind of de facto long man and the question would become whether guys like Aquino and Vizcaino can continue to contribute multiple innings to give Stomp a respite in AAA.

Truthfully, while Lewis may ultimately benefit from a stint in Columbus, when Smith is ready (and because he has options remaining), I don’t mess with a good thing. If one of the pleasant surprises goes awry, Smith can make his way up to replace a pitcher whose effectiveness may have waned; but if the bullpen is showing signs of stability, it may not be a good time to rock the boat for fear of another capsizing.
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With the Yankees in town, it’s time to take a look at this beauty again:

Now would be a good time to mention that there were some…um…Canadian soldiers outside of my house this morning when I went to get the paper. They must have known that the Yankees were in town.

When is Justin Chamberlain scheduled to start again?
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Finally, my brother’s getting married this weekend, so our ol’ friend t-bone has agreed to take the wheel on a Lazy Sunday as it looks to be like a long weekend for your humble host as the Indians look to continue their winning ways against the Yanks.

Break in the Waves

When the Indians began their rebuilding phase in earnest in late June of 2002, trading Bartolo Colon to the Montreal Expos for a slew of prospects, Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro talked up the idea of hitting the fast-forward button on the rebuilding process, attempting to shorten the usual length of rebuilding by moving their most valuable asset for close-to-MLB-ready players and by following up that move with an adherence to a philosophy of how a team should be built to compete year after year in the Cleveland market.

This “PLAN” became the subject of much speculation and much discussion, but the way that the team set itself up left no doubt that one of the fundamental pillars (if not the main driving force) of “The PLAN” was that the best way that a small market team to compete on a consistent basis was to rely on a strong starting rotation, capable of winning games or keeping the team in games. The logic behind the premise was simple enough, in that a strong starting staff could easily hide the warts in a bullpen by pitching late into games and minimizing the damage that an inconsistent bullpen could do on a season as well as keeping a team with an average or solid offense in games, simply by contributing six or seven innings of baseball to make any run or runs scored by the offense all that more important.

Given the payroll restrictions that the Indians foresaw, the philosophy of stressing the importance of a solid rotation above all else seemed not only solid, but also achievable in that pieces were already in place to build around with CC Sabathia. Of course, this is not exactly rocket science that good starting pitching wins baseball games, but the manner in which the Indians’ Front Office put all of their emphasis on creating a deep and talented pitching staff showed a commitment to that area of the team that was stronger than other areas.

As some of the talent began to develop with this basic tenet in place, the likes of CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Cliff Lee emerged as stalwarts in the rotation, complemented by what constituted “big-money” Free Agent acquisitions (for the Indians, at least) in Kevin Millwood and Paul Byrd while the Indians waited for their young starters to start to emerge from the farm system…those “waves of arms”, if you will, designed to be a constant flow to the parent club to provide the Indians with quality and depth for their rotation.

After a tease of a season in 2005 (with Millwood) and a clunker in 2006, the Indians’ “PLAN” looked to be right on course in 2007, when everything went so right. The starting rotation boasted two homegrown “aces” in Sabathia and Carmona, innings-eaters in Westbrook and Byrd, and compensated for CP Lee falling off the cliff by simply plugging in the revelation of the second half of 2006, Jeremy Sowers , and another young arm in Aaron Laffey to pick up the slack, with fireballing Atom Miller supposedly waiting in the wings in AAA.

Remember that?
Remember how right that all looked, how the Indians seemed poised to simply plug in parts to that rotation, even with the knowledge that CC was likely to leave and Byrd was simply pitching out his contract?

Sitting here now, a mere two years later, waiting for Zach Jackson to start a game in late-May, is it fair to ask what happened?
Where are the waves of arms?
Where is the depth?
Where is the quality?

Just two years after that 2007 rotation, the Indians’ 2009 rotation is ready to use the 9th starter of the season in The Zach Attack on Wednesday…all of this before the end of May.

Want some comparative numbers to throw that up against in terms of the years that the starting pitching was designed to be the strength of the team?

2008
12 starters used in the season

2007
8 starters used in the season

2006
9 starters used in the season

2005
6 starters used in the season

Does the number of starters tell the whole story as to how a season is going for a starting rotation? Absolutely not, but isn’t it pretty fair to assume that the fewer starters that pitch in a season means that those starters are contributing more quality and more length than a team with a number of starters toeing the rubber?

Why is it that, rather suddenly, the Indians find themselves dipping THIS deep into their starting depth? Is it simply injuries, or does ineffectiveness and lack of quality depth options play a role?

Certainly the case can be made for injury and injury causing some of that ineffectiveness as the quality of pitchers is going to drop the deeper a team has to go into their rotational depth, but wasn’t the idea that the Indians would plan for that with these “waves of arms”?

For a team that prides itself on having contingency plans for their contingency plans, is it fair to simply blame injuries or has it devolved more into a talent issue or a talent evaluation issue?

To me, at a certain point, this becomes a talent issue as the Indians simply haven’t developed these arms that have contributed at a Big League level with any sort of consistency since “The PLAN” became the credo of the organization. As the calendar is about to flip to June in 2009, the Colon trade occurred nearly seven years ago…care to take a guess how many pitchers broke camp with the Indians this year from Goodyear that were drafted or were international signings and were developed by the Indians since that trade in 2002?
Two….
Two pitchers that started the season on the 25-man roster this year were drafted or signed as amateurs by the Indians and developed by the organization since that day in late June of 2002.
Scott Lewis and Jensen Lewis…that’s it.

If you want to throw some of the players who have come up since Opening Day to contribute who fall under that same criteria (drafted or signed as amateurs since the Colon deal and developed by the Indians), add Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Tony Sipp.

How are those “waves of arms” looking now?
It’s true that Carmona and Perez were both signed as amateurs by the Indians and worked their way through the organization, but both were inked by the Tribe prior to that night in June of 2002. That’s probably picking hairs, so sure…throw them in there too.

This is the “waves of arms” that’s going to feed the parent club to overcome the losses in Free Agency?

Obviously some of the best-laid plans have gone amiss, but have the failures of Sowers been THAT damaging or the injuries to Westbrook and Atom Miller been THAT difficult to overcome that the Indians are about to enter June and have no appealing option to start a game this week?

But it’s not just that the alternatives to fill holes don’t seem to be there – the pitchers that HAVE logged innings this year have been underwhelming at best. Consider what the Indians’ rotation (and this includes those names that have emerged to augment the parent club) have put forth this season:
2009 Rotation after Monday’s game
5.79 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 1.51 K/BB, 5.47 innings per game

Oof…right?
Want a real sucker punch?
2009 Rotation without CP Lee after Monday’s game
6.81 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB, 5.10 innings per game

That’s 46 games into the season after Monday’s game, nearly 1/3 of the way into the season, so we’re not exactly looking at a small sample size anymore and suddenly the Indians are looking to put together a run back into the AL Central with Lee, Pavano, and a number of question marks that get bigger with each passing game, particularly without the services of the pitcher who was probably the most valuable to them this season this side of the reigning Cy Young winner in Aaron Laffey.

Sure, Carl Pavano has been a nice revelation after his first start and a nice “find”, but why was it even necessary to go out and sign a player like Pavano if the whole idea behind “The PLAN” was to develop layers of arms, supposedly accounting for attrition, so the Indians’ rotation would always have steady stream of arms?

Why was it necessary to continue to pitch an obviously injured and ineffective Anthony Reyes if the Indians were designed to fill the back-end of the rotation from within?

Essentially, the “wave” that was supposed to be breaking into Cleveland at this time resembled more of a gentle lapping at the coast and the Indians, obviously lacking confidence in their home-grown players, saw that this “break” in the waves was coming and the only way to counteract this development was to sign or acquire players like Pavano and Reyes, some four years removed from their first foray into the bargain bin with Kevin Millwood and Jason Johnson.

Is this “break” in arms or apparent flaw in “The PLAN” simply a result of the arms not being around to emerge as viable MLB starters?

Maybe, and while the Indians stocked their position player depth via trade, acquiring Cabrera, Choo, Shoppach, Valbuena, LaPorta, Brantley, Santana, and others to make up for their organization holes around the diamond, the sense that these “waves of arms” still existed as viable options resulted in the Indians essentially attempting to ride out this downturn in talent that arrived in MLB as starting pitchers.

While it was necessary to augment the position players via trade en masse, the acquisition of arms lagged behind (perhaps because they simply weren’t available), laying waste to the idea that the Indians would see arms periodically arrive in Cleveland at a steady and consistent rate as the players that they had developed on their own were found to either be lacking or just never made it to MLB due to injury issues and the net result is that that “depth” becomes compromised or becomes so watered down that you’re not really talking about “depth” at all in terms of quality, you’re just talking about arms who can start a game.

As my friend Tyler Chirdon so eloquently points out on the topic, “Depth is not having a second string in place when you break camp, because you have to assume that a number of your starters AND your first-choice replacements will get injured, such that you don't know what your real roster issues are until you're about 5 weeks in. Depth is having a full roster's worth of replacements in late May… not about emergency options, but replacement-level-plus guys.”

Usually, the Indians stress going “7 or 8 deep” into their AAA rotation, but if the quality from #4 to #8 isn’t all that different and isn’t all that great, doesn’t that scream for an infusion of talent in the rotation, perhaps not to save the 2009 season, but at the very least to give a better sense about 2010?

What does 2010 look like, assuming Lee’s staying and Pavano’s cashing in elsewhere?
Lee
Carmona
Westbrook
Laffey
Huff

Knowing nothing about what Westbrook’s going to look like and seeing Carmona struggle with every inning that can snowball on him, how comfortable are you with that going into next year?

Sowers and Zachson are out of options, so count them out unless you put them in the Opening Day rotation, and Ant Reyes and Scott Lewis may be looking at going into 2010 with their arms held together by chicken wire and bubble gum…feeling any more confident yet?

Of course, the argument can be made that there’s another batch of arms in AA with Hector Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez, as well as other talented players like Chuck Lofgren and Josh Tomlin; but which of these players is going to come to the parent club and legitimately establish himself as a viable MLB starter? Dave Huff blew away AA and AAA hitting in 2008 and has struggled in his first few starts and, while that’s obviously making an unfair knee-jerk reaction, the idea that Huff would be have to be counted on to come into the rotation and perhaps immediately become the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team goes back to the idea that the talent just doesn’t seem to be there in the rotation.

Yes, there are arms there, but what I’m referring to is pitchers that legitimately sit at the top or the middle of the rotation and don’t simply represent back-end-of-the-rotation fodder or depth options in that the team would be happy if they were able to contribute a 5-inning outing once in a while.

Seven years and not one consistently effective starter has been developed by the team. Think about that…sure, Laffey has had his moments, as has Sowers in 2006, and if you want to include Carmona (signed in 2000), you start to see some stretches of effectiveness by players signed or drafted by the Tribe, but where are the long-term, legitimate replacements that plug the holes in the team’s rotation?

You want a problem for this team in 2009 and this organization as a whole? Go ahead, blame the bullpen and blame roster mismanagement in terms of which players are playing and where they’re playing the field…there’s plenty of blame to go around. But for this organization, allegedly adhering to this “PLAN” in which starting pitching is the bedrock which the whole idea of consistent contention is built upon, the failure of the organization to see those “waves of arms” hit with consistency and effectiveness looks to be the glaring area of this team that is lacking for this year and into the near future.

Beyond that, the scariest part of this revelation is that the water looks pretty calm here on the shore and the next waves look to be a good distance away from the beach as days, months, and seasons begin to pass.

Those Were the Days

In the midst of putting together a piece attempting to put my finger on what exactly has gone wrong (the 11-run comeback considered) with the Indians, I thought that using a piece that I put together in the middle of February of 2007 would serve as a nice preface for where the Indians sit now.

How do the Indians sit where they do?
Where has it gone wrong?

Maybe it’s time to remember how we interpreted “The Plan” a little over two years ago…and remember, this is PRIOR to the magical 2007 season:

Last December, I examined “The PLAN” and laid out the basic philosophies that the Indians seemed to be following in the pursuit of putting a consistent contender on the field. It’s time to expand on those initial thoughts to look at a more detailed analysis of the implementation of “The PLAN” as it pertains to the players that the Indians include in their long-term plans.

The evolution of “The PLAN” has been an interesting thing to observe, particularly considering that Shapiro plied his craft at the knee of John Hart, who believed in a Beer League Softball style of bashing his way to success in Cleveland. When Shapiro took over in 2001, it was fair to assume that he would continue Hart’s philosophies and beliefs, assembling overwhelmingly talented position players, cobbling together a starting staff, and manufacturing a bullpen out of castoffs and graybeards. But Shapiro has proven to be his own man, with his own philosophies, more deeply rooted in the simple credo of “pitching beats hitting”, perhaps after watching the Murderers’ Row of Indians hitters baffled by the Three Aces in the 1995 World Series.

But “good pitching beats good hitting” is simply one principle of “The PLAN”.

The basic tenets break down this way:

Strong Starting Pitching
Obviously, if any team could develop the starting staff the Indians look to be entering 2007 with, they would do it in a heartbeat. But Shapiro, since his trade of Bartolo Colon (which was the only way to circumvent the seemingly mandatory 10 year rebuilding plan seen in Detroit and Kansas City, among others) has gone out of his way to stock what is often referred to as the “waves of arms” that are designed to hit Cleveland when the parent club is in need of some new ammunition. Out of his 6 1st Round Picks since 2002, ½ have been college pitchers – one with disappointing results (Guthrie), one with promise (Sowers), and one with very limited experience (Huff) – and one sandwich pick used on a high school flamethrower (Miller).

Those “waves” are starting to whitecap. Sowers is in Cleveland and the rest of the 1st wave of Carmona, Miller, and Slocum are ready to possibly contribute this year. The 2nd wave of Lofgren, the Lewis Boys, Laffey, Ness, and Sean Smith is only a step lower.

Need proof that these aren’t just highly touted names with nothing behind them? Here are the 2006 staff ERA’s for the Indians’ farm teams:

Buffalo – 3.44
Akron – 3.74
Kinston – 3.44
Lake County – 3.60

Those are TEAM ERA’s!

Realizing that the Majors (where only 3 teams were sub-4.00 in 2006) than Minor League pitching, and a completely different animal, those numbers still speak to the quality and quantity of arms the Indians have stockpiled in Shapiro’s time as GM.

Will all of these pitchers pan out? Certainly not.

Remember that Jason Davis, Ricardo Rodriguez, Jeremy Guthrie, and Billy Traber don’t currently complement C.C. in the rotation. But the strength in numbers is a solid strategy in that only one or two of these players at each level are going to survive the grind and the gauntlet and emerge as viable options at the ML level.

Will Miller and Carmona replace Byrd and Westbrook for 2008? Will Lofgren replace C.C. in 2009?

Even if they’re not going to have to, the idea of having a legitimate replacement starter emerge from the farm is much more palatable than seeing a contract to a middling starter replace them and do little more than clog up the payroll.

A Few (two to three) Exceptional Position Players
Truly irreplaceable MLB everyday players (or players that you would take over any other player that position in the Majors) are rare commodities in that few teams boast more than two at any time.

Morneau and Mauer
Howard and Utley
Wright and Reyes
Ortiz and Manny
Pujols and Rolen
Chipper and Andruw (five years ago)
And, of course, SuperSizemore and Pronk

There are other good players in baseball, to be sure, but the best of the best on the same team form the core of an offense and solidify a lineup every single game.

To have three or four of these players on one team, in their prime, is nearly unheard of – but not without precedent. The Tribe of the 90’s had Belle, Thome, and Ramirez entering their prime, complemented by Omar, Lofton, Baerga, and Sandy. Great players, but Joey, Jimmy, and Manny were the centerpieces.

Acquiring these rare players sometimes come by design (Mauer, the 1st pick of the draft), others by surprise (Ortiz, a FA reject). But when a team gets one of these players, much less two, it forms the foundation of a potent offense. With Grady signed through 2011 (an absolute masterstroke, particularly when you look at the contract numbers late in the deal) and Hafner signed through 2008, the Indians have a leg up on most teams when looking at offensive production.

How many of these players are in the pipeline for the Indians? That’s hard to say. Would you have pegged Hafner as one of the top 3 three hitters in baseball when the Tribe acquired him with Aaron Myette for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz? Do you think the Rangers did?

Players develop into these players, they don’t usually don’t burst on the scene and announce their arrival with a Ryan Howard-esque rookie season. Can Andy Marte develop into one of these players? Can Trevor Crowe? Can Jhonny Peralta revert back to the form of 2005, when he was mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Tejada in terms of overall production? Who knows?

For now, the Indians have Sizemore for five more years and some time to negotiate with Pronk. If he moves on, Shapiro and the boys hope that one of the aforementioned names will have moved into the realm of the elite to keep a few exceptional players on which to build the everyday lineup.

Reliable and Experienced, if Unspectacular, Bullpen
This is the one aspect of “The PLAN” that has likely undergone some revisions since Shapiro took the reins in 2001. We’ve seen the Good (2005 and Howry), the Bad (2006 and Mota) and the Ugly (2004 and Stewart/Jimenez … I think I just threw up in my mouth remembering those two), but have yet to see the year-to-year reliability that good teams crave.

The “throw it up against the wall and see what sticks” method seems to be the current strategy in constructing a bullpen league-wide. The fact that relievers are relievers for a reason (that is, they’re not starters or closers) is the most widely held belief in realizing that building a bullpen takes more than a little luck.

The key is to find a pitcher on the verge of a great season, not one season later. How do you figure that? Very simply, you can’t. You can throw gobs of money at pitchers that have experienced recent success (like the Orioles did), but there’s no guarantee that those pitchers won’t blow up and become a burden for the remainder of the contract.

Prospects can be developed to join the ML bullpen ready to contribute; but, as we learned last year, the pressure in Dunn Tire Park in Buffalo is a tad different than standing on the mound in Fenway looking at Big Papi. The progression of relievers from effective minor league relievers to cogs in a ML bullpen is a long and rocky one. Just ask Fernando Cabrera, the man with the nastiest stuff this side of Paul Shuey.

It would be great to throw the likes of Mujica, Sipp, Mastny, Perez, and Jason Dangerously (all terrific arms with great potential) out there and cross our fingers. But the reality of that option flew over the LF fence in Comerica with Pudge’s walk-off last year as Carmona raised his hands to his shell-shocked head.

In lieu of watching these guys learn their craft by sending them through the gauntlet, the idea is to find reliability and stability in a historically unreliable and unstable aspect of the team.

Affordable Complementary Players
Is it necessary to build a lineup of All Stars to put a consistent contender on the field?

Ask Scott Brosius after the 1996 World Series. Or that Red Sox RF from 2004 … what was that guy’s name again – Trot or something like that?

If the core of a team is in place to lend stability and potency to the lineup (Grady, Pronk, Victor, and to a lesser degree Blake), then the balance of the lineup can be comprised of either young players with promise (Barfield, Marte, Garko) or dependable veterans who have proven themselves to be more than proficient in one or more aspect of their game (Dellucci vs. RHP, Michaels vs. LHP, Nixon vs. RHP).

The strategy of complementing the core with these types of players keeps the payroll flexible (the young players aren’t quite arbitration eligible and the older players play on short contracts for less money as they try to prove themselves to be more complete than previously proven to earn a bigger contract), allowing the money to be spent on retaining the more important aspects of the team – namely starting pitching and locking up the core position players to long-term deals.

Ideally these complementary players come from the minors to fill the holes that exist on the ML roster. But Major League Baseball is no Xanadu. If the youngsters prove not-quite-ready-for-primetime, holes are plugged with available rosters on short deals until a viable replacement can be found in the minors.

Want examples?

Michael Aubrey’s body falls apart, halting his ascension as the “1B of the Future”. No other internal option exists and Benuardo is born, then replaced by Blarko. Or Brad Snyder’s swing develops a giant hole, resulting in 158 K’s in 52 Akron AB, and Frank the Tank loses his power stroke somewhere between Vero Beach and Cleveland forcing Dellichaels to rear his ugly head.

Would we all like to see seven Indians in the All Star lineup every year? Sure, but what that got us was a couple of AL Pennants and no World Series flag to fly over the Jake.

SUMMARY
A number of teams have executed these philosophies effectively, most notably the Atlanta Braves and their run from 1991 to 2005. They were built around their starting pitching – Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Millwood and solid 4th and 5th starters as the base. Chipper and Justice/Andruw Jones made up their “exceptional players” criteria, with the likes of Javy Lopez, Fred McGriff, and Gary Sheffield complementing them. Noted stalwarts Mark Wohlers, Kerry Lightenberg, and John Rocker anchored the bullpen.

That sustained run of excellence by the Braves is what the Indians aspire to and the goal of “The PLAN” – the framework by which the Indians have been built and are being projected to remain. The names on the back of the jersey will change as the makeup of the team changes. But the principles they are evaluated by will be the constant.

The players are no different than the actors in a play. The scriptwriter has the framework of what he wants to see played out for a long run on the stage.

Sit back and enjoy the show.

Up next…how did we ever get off this course that looked so sound after the 2007 season that followed the piece and is it possible to get back to the path that "The Plan" seemed to put this team so squarely upon?

A Lazy Sunday Spent Looking for Arms

Looking across Lake Chautauqua on this fine Memorial Day Weekend and thinking again about LeShot, let’s just get going on a Lazy Sunday before I become a viable option for the Indians’ rotation:

The biggest revelation of the week (other than the fact that the Indians’ bullpen now boasts Greg Aquino, Luis Vizcaino, Matt Herges, AND Rich Rundles) came via SI.com’s Jon Heymann, who was the first to report that Mark DeRosa found himself on the proverbial trading block, which should have come as no surprise as the Indians, now officially (OK, maybe not officially) committed to “The Shift” of Jhonny to 3B, find themselves not so much in need of a 3B…which, apparently is still the position that the Indians feel is DeRosa’s best, unless you count 1B.

Without getting into the “Orlando Hudson and his 1-year deal would look awfully good here right now” rant, it would seem that DeRosa finds himself in the super-utility role that Casey Blake was oft-rumored to be destined for, but never quite got to. If he is that super-utility guy, then DeRosa may be a luxury that the Indians just don’t need, given their obvious need for arms…any arms…capable of getting consistent outs, be it in the rotation or the bullpen.

By no means am I suggesting that DeRosa is not a valuable commodity on this team, but with Peralta at 3B, Cabrera at SS, Valbuena and Carroll around to patrol 2B, and the Indians having the pieces in the OF, we’re going to keep DeRosa around…to what?
Play 1B and move around the diamond?

Aren’t the Indians already chock full of 1B playing out of position and can’t Carroll and all of those other names move around the diamond as Valbuena can play 2B, SS, and 3B, etc? If, then, he becomes a redundancy on this team, particularly with Carroll healthy, doesn’t it stand to reason that another team, in need of a player like DeRosa more than the Indians at this point would be looking for exactly the “rent a versatile veteran for a year” idea that the Indians acquired him for last New Year’s Eve?

The bottom line is that the Indians need arms and they need to infuse some arms in a hurry to this team in an attempt to keep hope alive in this season and start to load up for next season. If Mark DeRosa can net some arms for the Indians that can help right now, then there’s your move to make right now.

It’s a notion that was put out there by Jayson Stark (with a veritable cornucopia of info on the Erie Warriors), who clarified what Heymann started in terms of what the Indians are and are not looking to do in the trade market with the pieces and parts that could net them some arms:
Lee-way: Another team in almost an identical position is the Indians, with Cliff Lee. Clubs that have felt out the Indians about Lee's availability have come away thinking GM Mark Shapiro wants to hang on to Lee, pick up his $9 million option for next year and hope things go right around him for a change.

Shapiro hasn't told other teams he won't listen on Lee this July, or even next winter, if the Indians don't U-turn in the next few weeks. But they would almost certainly want a can't-miss, ace-waiting-to-happen young starter back, plus at least one other star-caliber prospect. And teams just don't trade away pitchers like that (think Tommy Hanson, David Price, etc.) in this day and age. So don't look for much Rumor Central action on Cliff Lee before July 2010, if ever.

Buy-or-sell land: On that note, for all those who thought Cleveland was nearly ready to bag this season and start selling off parts … uh, guess again. Clubs that have spoken with the Indians say they're still trying to ADD pitching, to give the current group at least another month to right the ship.

Other teams report the Indians are very willing to talk about Mark DeRosa for the right pitcher, which makes the Giants a better match than the Brewers or Mets. You should also remember that this is a team overstuffed with outfield depth, with Ben Francisco, Matt LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, Michael Brantley and Shin-Soo Choo all positioned to battle for playing time on either side of Grady Sizemore within the next year. And there are indications the Indians also would talk about dealing off some of that depth for the right arm, or arms.

Now this is an idea I can get behind…
Let’s start to use some redundant assets to stockpile some arms at the upper levels and forget the notion that every trade of an outfielder for a pitcher is going to evoke memories of Brian Giles-for-Ricardo Rincon.

Filling holes in the upper levels is something that the Indians have excelled at in years’ past with veterans (and quite successfully with Benuardo becoming Choo and Cabrera, Blake becoming Santana) in terms of targeting players that had more value to other teams and moving them to fill organizational holes. Beyond the “flip the veteran” philosophy, the Frank the Tank trade showed a newfound willingness to deal a younger player from a position of depth to acquire a young player(s) at a position of need.

But, at this point, it’s time to get a little more aggressive with this notion in terms of the Indians (suddenly) being loaded with position player talent and bereft of pitching talent…and by that I mean, nearly any pitching talent in AAA and, well…the parent club. With this newfound depth among the position players, could the Indians pull off what the Tigers and Red Sox were able to in the off-season, when Detroit moved OF Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson (currently leading the AL in ERA…non-Greinke category) to stabilize their rotation or when the Red Sox sent OF Coco Crisp to KC for Ramon Ramirez (currently 7th in MLB in WXRL) to deepen their bullpen?

Who knows, but the time may be now for the Indians to get pro-active in terms of knowing what they have and what they need and not waiting for the off-season or for the trading deadline to make these moves.

Now am I suggesting a Kenny Williams-esque attempt at a trade here?
I don’t think so, although it certainly is interesting to see how Williams, with his team currently sitting on a 2.6% chance of winning the Central (the Indians own a hefty 8.5% chance), responds to his season going down the drain.

But maybe now is the time to acknowledge that the Indians are a team badly in need of arms (primarily in the bullpen but with the rotation past Lee no getting any free passes), and what they may have to dangle out there to become more whole.

Does that mean that they should move a piece like Victor (and didn’t I tell you that this piece was coming) to get some MLB-ready, high-quality arms in the system?

Not unless you’re looking at this year as a complete wash and surveying the landscape of what 2010 may look like and seeing the need for THAT many more arms for the Indians to legitimately get back to having a surplus of arms…and by that I mean a surplus of QUALITY arms.

Maybe you’re at that point right now (and the argument can be made in a very compelling manner just by looking at a potential 2010 rotation), but I’m not there JUST yet and look for guys like DeRosa as the more immediate piece that could be moved for something, and by “something” I don’t mean an arm for Kinston or Lake County. I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on arms currently residing in organizations like the Giants, the Mets, the Brewers, or any other team that may be looking for a 2B or a 3B or a fill-in-the-cracks kind of player like DeRosa, but the Indians need arms at the big-league level and if Mark DeRosa can be flipped for an arm like that, there’s no reason to wait for any kind of magical date to make that happen.

If DeRosa is moved, however, don’t take it as the sign that the “Garage Sale” is on, as Stark adroitly reports. Rather, it’s as simple as DeRosa not having the defined role that he did going into the season and trading him should be taken more as an acknowledgement that the Indians misevaluated what 2009 held in store for their infielders and essentially targeted the wrong player.

He may not be the last player moved, but he almost certainly will be the first.
How did it come to this before Memorial Day?
Don’t ask…

Moving on, and attempting to avoid the fact that the Indians may be having a starting pitcher named Kirk Saarloos or Tomo Ohka before the END OF MAY, if you’ve not seen the cover of SI this week, it has a local feel to it as my fellow native South Euclidean Joe Posnanski has a piece on Cleveland. He addresses the whole “Cleveland cover” thing which is another great read, but if you click just one of the links here, read his piece from the magazine.
It’s that good.

Finally, a Happy Memorial Day to everyone…I’ll be spending mine with my wife, my son, my brother, and his fiancée at the ballgame. At this point in the season (and, yes, it is only MEMORIAL DAY tomorrow), all we may have for the rest of the season is the enjoyment of a baseball game on a beautiful summer night, spending time with family and friends.

As strange as it sounds with the Indians still 10 games under .500, I couldn’t think of a better day.