On Draft

As the Indians’ season slinks closer to the finish line, with the glimmers of hope being clouded by the continuation of confusing organizational double-speak (that is, actions that go against stated intentions) and the disappointments of what is sure to remain an inconsistent product on the field into 2010, the overwhelming question of how the Indians fell so far, so fast continues to gnaw. After the run of 2007 and the promise of 2008, the Indians have undoubtedly fell on hard times in short order and while the cause of that precipitous fall can be deflected in a number of directions, one that seems to have found a toehold is that the Indians’ inability to identify, draft, and develop players internally has sabotaged their ability to continue to contend.

When the trade of Bartolo Colon was announced in late June 2002, the new Indians’ regime made no secret about their plans to re-stock the barren cupboard in the farm system, decrying a lack of players in the pipeline ready to contribute at some point in the future. They acted quickly, making trades that stocked the Minors with the likes of Sizemore, Lee, Phillips, Hafner, and Crisp (among other notable “misses”), ostensibly with the hope that they were putting depth and quality back into the farm in a hurry.

The credo was that in a market like Cleveland, the lifeblood of the organization would be the development of young players (home-grown and acquired from elsewhere) as the Indians knew that they would be unlikely to be significant players in the Free Agent market, with the likelihood that they would lose the majority of their “home-grown stars” once they hit FA playing the other side of the double-edged sword staring them in the face.

As a reaction to that reality, the Indians stated publicly that they would be ramping up their development system by putting more money into the farm system, with the idea that the players they acquired through the Draft and through International Free Agency would begin to fill holes internally with the young, inexpensive, under-club-control players that the Indians knew were necessary to vault back into the steady contention that they enjoyed in the 1990s.

Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

While that path to acquiring talent is certainly a legitimate one, unless the Indians legitimately planned to fill their need for a SS by knowing that they would trade Eduardo Perez for Asdrubal Cabrera or knowing that they’d fill their OF issues when (and not if) they were forced to trade the Hefty Lefty, there’s a disconnect here. The Indians, quite simply, have not been able to develop their own players via one of the crucial tools in place for them to do so. Additionally, when the Indians do see one of their draft picks emerge from the Minors to the parent club, the players have fallen more under the category of organizational filler than that of impact talent.

Without getting into the whole “Arrested Development” thing (and it is almost time to enjoy the brilliance of those 3 seasons again once the MLB season is over) of why these players are not able to progress at the MLB level and become anything more than organizational fodder, let’s take a look at how the Indians have fared in the MLB Draft since 2002, the year of unquestioned transition made official by the Colon deal that would go down less than a month after the 2002 amateur draft.

For the purposes of organizing this, the players that have appeared in an MLB game are listed by their draft class (with their draft position noted), with their MLB performance to date shown, using ERA+ and OPS+ as a measuring stick (knowing that 100 of each equates to league average) and indicating how much of their time in MLB was spent playing for the Indians.

With that introduction, let’s pull back the curtain on the MLB players drafted by the Indians from 2002 to 2007, stopping there if only because the 2008 draft class is just only now finishing their first full professional season:
Cleveland
2002
Jeremy Guthrie – Round 1 (#22)
Career 109 ERA+ in 570 MLB IP – 37 of those IP for Cleveland
Brian Slocum – Round 2 (#63)
Career 58 ERA+ in 19 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland
Ben Francisco – Round 5 (#154)
Career 99 OPS+ in 869 MLB AB – 817 of those AB for Cleveland

2003
Michael Aubrey – Round 1 (#11)
Career 67 OPS+ in 66 MLB AB – 45 of those AB for Cleveland
Ryan Garko – Round 3 (#78)
Career 106 OPS+ in 1,497 MLB AB – 1,404 of those AB for Cleveland
Kevin Kouzmanoff – Round 6 (#168)
Career 101 OPS+ in 1,677 MLB AB – 56 of those AB for Cleveland
Aaron Laffey – Round 16 (#468)
Career 110 ERA+ in 242 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland

2004
Jeremy Sowers – Round 1 (#6)
Career 90 ERA+ in 384 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland
Scott Lewis – Round 3 (#77)
Career 128 ERA+ in 28 1/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland
Chris Gimenez – Round 19 (#557)
Career 36 OPS+ in 104 MLB AB – all of those AB for Cleveland
Wyatt Toregas – Round 24 (#707)
Career 32 OPS+ in 37 MLB AB – all of those AB for Cleveland
Tony Sipp – Round 45 (#1333)
Career 143 ERA+ in 31 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland

2005
Trevor Crowe – Round 1 (#14)
Career 49 OPS+ in 108 MLB AB – all of those AB for Cleveland
Jensen Lewis – Round 3 (#102)
Career 117 ERA+ in 146 1/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland

2006
David Huff – Round 1 (#39)
Career 73 ERA+ in 108 1/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Cleveland

2007
No Players

OK, we all know how this goes – harrumph, harrumph…I didn’t get a harrumph out of that guy…oh, because he’s too busy wailing and gnashing his teeth – that’s acceptable.

While it may be unfair to gauge the success of a young player like a David Huff or a Tony Sipp just yet because the sample size is so small, the fact remains that Ryan Garko and Aaron Laffey are the two best players in terms of performance that have logged any significant time in MLB and those guys are…well, a place-holder 1B who is not an everyday player on an NL West team these days and a young pitcher who hopefully slots into the middle of the rotation for the next few years.

The sense that the Indians have failed to draft and develop impact players holds up as the names that fill this list certainly fall under the “organizational filler” column in the ledger with players that look like 4th OF, back-up catchers, 5th starters or swing men.

If you’re looking for a tangible measuring stick for the 6 years of the draft examined, the number of players with an OPS+ or an ERA+ over 100 with more than 200 AB or 50 IP (meaning that we’re not just talking about success in a cup of coffee with the Tribe) with 50% of those AB or IP coming with the Indians is…wait for it…3.

Ryan Garko, Aaron Laffey, and Jensen Lewis are who the Indians can hang their hat on right now as “successes” in those 6 years of drafting.
Cue the harrumphs…

Now, do injuries play a role here?
Certainly, as Michael Aubrey’s career was derailed by injuries and only makes this list by virtue of a few meaningless AB for the Orioles this season, just as Atom Miller does not find himself on this list because of visiting the doctor’s office at a rate usually reserved for a hypochondriac.

But injuries play a role everywhere and for every team, which brings us to the idea that the only way to truly analyze the recent success (or lack thereof) for the Indians in the amateur draft is to look at their performance in comparison to a number of different teams in the same timeframe, using the same criteria.

Thus, let’s take a look at the results of the other teams in the AL Central from 2002 to 2007, using OPS+ and ERA+ as the same measure of performance for their draftees that have reached MLB.

And…away we go:
Detroit
2002
Scott Moore – Round 1 (#8)
Career 69 OPS+ in 98 MLB AB – 0 of those AB for Detroit
Brent Clevlen – Round 2 (#49)
Career 81 OPS+ in 73 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Curtis Granderson – Round 3 (#80)
Career 116 OPS+ in 2,473 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Luke Carlin – Round 10 (#290)
Career 27 OPS+ in 111 MLB AB – 0 of those AB for Detroit
Joel Zumaya – Round 11 (#320)
Career 144 ERA+ in 171 1/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Detroit
Jesse Carlson – Round 15 (#440)
Career 127 ERA+ in 119 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Detroit

2003
Tony Giarratano – Round 3 (#70)
Career 22 OPS+ in 42 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Virgil Vasquez – Round 7 (#190)
Career 61 ERA+ in 54 2/3 MLB IP – 16 2/3 of those IP for Detroit
Brian Rogers – Round 11 (#310)
Career 48 ERA+ in 10 2/3 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Detroit
Jordan Tata – Round 14 (#460)
Career 66 ERA+ in 28 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Detroit
Dusty Ryan – Round 48 (#1405)
Career 92 OPS+ in 69 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit

2004
Justin Verlander – Round 1 (#2)
Career 116 ERA+ in 797 MLB IP – all of those IP for Detroit

2005
Cameron Maybin – Round 1 (#10)
Career 89 OPS+ in 182 MLB AB – 49 of those AB for Detroit
Jeff Larish – Round 5 (#150)
Career 90 OPS+ in 178 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Clete Thomas – Round 6 (#180)
Career 93 OPS+ in 358 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Matt Joyce – Round 12 (#360)
Career 113 OPS+ in 274 MLB AB – 242 of those AB for Detroit
Michael Hollimon – Round 16 (#480)
Career 116 OPS+ in 23 MLB AB – all of those AB for Detroit
Burke Badenhop – Round 19 (#570)
Career 86 ERA+ in 107 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Detroit

2006
Andrew Miller – Round 1 (#6)
Career 78 ERA+ in 258 1/3 MLB IP – 74 1/3 of those IP for Detroit

2007
Rick Porcello – Round 1 (#27)
Career 107 ERA+ in 141 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Detroit

Chicago
2002
Royce Ring – Round 1 (#18)
Career 85 ERA+ in 65 2/3 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Chicago
Jeremy Reed – Round 2 (#59)
Career 81 OPS+ in 1,201 MLB AB – 0 of those AB for Chicago
Josh Rupe – Round 3 (#90)
Career 90 ERA+ in 132 2/3 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Chicago
Sean Tracey – Round 8 (#240)
Career 141 ERA+ in 8 MLB IP – all of those IP for Chicago
Brandon McCarthy – Round 17 (#510)
Career 99 ERA+ in 352 MLB IP – 151 2/3 of those IP for Chicago
Boone Logan – Round 20 (#600)
Career 80 ERA+ in 126 MLB IP – 110 2/3 of those IP for Chicago
Jay Marshall – Round 25 (#750)
Career 80 ERA+ in 126 MLB IP – 110 2/3 of those IP for Chicago
Fernando Hernandez – Round 49 (#1448)
Career 22 ERA+ in 3 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Chicago

2003
Brian Anderson – Round 1 (#15)
Career 66 OPS+ in 790 MLB AB – 782 of those AB for Chicago
Ryan Sweeney – Round 2 (#52)
Career 94 OPS+ in 888 MLB AB – 80 of those AB for Chicago

2004
Josh Fields – Round 1 (#18)
Career 84 OPS+ in 650 MLB AB – all of those AB for Chicago
Gio Gonzalez – Round 1 (#38)
Career 65 ERA+ in 113 2/3 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Chicago
Donny Lucy – Round 2 (#59)
Career 5 OPS+ in 15 MLB AB – all of those AB for Chicago
Adam Russell – Round 6 (#178)
Career 98 ERA+ in 32 MLB IP – 26 of those IP for Chicago

2005
Lance Broadway – Round 1 (#15)
Career 101 ERA+ in 45 1/3 MLB IP – 40 1/3 of those IP for Chicago
Chris Getz – Round 4 (#125)
Career 126 OPS+ in 346 MLB AB – all of those AB for Chicago
Aaron Cunningham – Round 6 (#185)
Career 65 OPS+ in 133 MLB AB – 0 of those AB for Chicago
Clayton Richard – Round 8 (#245)
Career 86 ERA+ in 176 2/3 MLB IP – 136 2/3 of those IP for Chicago

2006
No Players

2007
Aaron Poreda – Round 1 (#25)
Career 191 ERA+ in 11 MLB IP – all of those IP for Chicago

Minnesota
2002
Denard Span – Round 1 (#20)
Career 122 OPS+ in 831 MLB AB – all of those AB for Minnesota
Jesse Crain – Round 2 (#60)
Career 122 ERA+ in 302 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota
Pat Neshek – Round 6 (#182)
Career 149 ERA+ in 120 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota
Evan Meek – Round 11 (#332)
Career 97 ERA+ in 60 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Minnesota

2003
Scott Baker – Round 2 (#58)
Career 99 ERA+ in 619 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota
Levale Speigner – Round 14 (#418)
Career 46 ERA+ in 48 MLB IP – 0 of those IP for Minnesota

2004
Glen Perkins – Round 1 (#22)
Career 87 ERA+ in 281 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota
Anthony Swarzak – Round 2 (#61)
Career 66 ERA+ in 59 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota
Matt Tolbert – Round 16 (#481)
Career 63 OPS+ in 242 MLB AB – all of those AB for Minnesota

2005
Matt Garza – Round 1 (#25)
Career 113 ERA+ in 495 1/3 MLB IP – 133 of those IP for Minnesota
Kevin Slowey – Round 2 (#73)
Career 94 ERA+ in 317 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Minnesota

2006
No Players

2007
No Players

Kansas City
2002
Zack Grienke – Round 1 (#6)
Career 118 ERA+ in 857 MLB IP – all of those IP for Kansas City
Donnie Murphy – Round 5 (#138)
Career 63 OPS+ in 325 MLB AB – 104 of those AB for Kansas City
Jonah Bayliss – Round 7 (#198)
Career 65 ERA+ in 64 MLB IP – 11 2/3 of those IP for Kansas City
Matt Tupman – Round 9 (#258)
Career 442 OPS+ in 1 MLB AB – that 1 sweet ever-loving AB for Kansas City
Kila Kaaihue – Round 15 (#438)
Career 116 OPS+ in 21 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City

2003
Mitch Maier – Round 1 (#30)
Career 79 OPS+ in 351 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City
Shane Costa – Round 2 (#42)
Career 70 OPS+ in 421 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City
Ryan Braun – Round 6 (#162)
Career 71 ERA+ in 50 MLB IP – all of those IP for Kansas City
Mike Aviles – Round 7 (#192)
Career 100 OPS+ in 539 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City

2004
Billy Butler – Round 1 (#14)
Career 108 OPS+ in 1,286 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City
JP Howell – Round 1 (#31)
Career 99 ERA+ in 319 MLB IP – 72 2/3 of those IP for Kansas City
Billy Buckner – Round 2 (#55)
Career 75 ERA+ in 101 2/3 MLB IP – 34 of those IP for Kansas City

2005
Alex Gordon – Round 1 (#2)
Career 95 OPS+ in 1,132 MLB AB – all of those AB for Kansas City

2006
Luke Hochevar – Round 1 (#1)
Career 77 ERA+ in 256 2/3 MLB IP – all of those IP for Kansas City

2007
No Players
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Everyone’s head spinning yet, overloaded from all of that data and how exactly it should be parsed?

OK, let’s start to break it down a couple of ways.
Total Players Drafted from 2002 to 2007 to make it to MLB:
Detroit – 20
Chicago – 19
Cleveland – 15
Kansas City – 14
Minnesota – 11

If you’re talking about players that logged more than just a few cursory appearances in MLB, here are the Total Players Drafted from 2002 to 2007, who logged more than 200 AB or 50 IP, regardless of MLB team:
Kansas City – 12
Detroit – 10
Chicago – 10
Minnesota – 10
Cleveland – 8

Since merely receiving AB or IP at the big-league level does not convey an actually hit rate in terms of identifying impact talent, how about using that same OPS+ and ERA+ number to see how many players were drafted by each team that fall into that category of an OPS+ or an ERA+ over 100 with more than 200 AB or 50 IP, again regardless of team:
Detroit – 6 (Granderson, Zumaya, Carlson, Verlander, Joyce, Porcello)
Cleveland – 5 (Guthrie, Garko, Kouzmanoff, Laffey, Lewis)
Minnesota – 4 (Span, Crain, Neshek, Garza)
Kansas City – 3 (Greinke, Aviles, Butler)
Chicago – 1 (Getz)

Comparatively, have the Indians drafted THAT badly in that 6-year stretch when you look at the bodies of work that their AL Central counterparts have put forth?
The draft is obviously a crapshoot, but the Indians’ performance in the draft is not far off from what the rest of the AL Central has put forth. Certainly there is no Verlander or Greinke in the Indians’ list, but those two were drafted #2 and #6 overall in their respective drafts, identical in their draft position to Alex Gordon (#2) and Andrew Miller (#6…not to mention another #6, Jeremy Sowers), giving credence to the notion that the truly elite players are few and far between in a draft and when a team is given the opportunity to select one of those players, success is critical.

A glaring trend that stands out when looking at the draft products of the AL Central though is not how each team’s roster is full of draft picks, but rather how other teams have used those drafted players to net current players on the roster.
Just for a few quick examples of success:
Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Burke Badenhop for Miguel Cabrera
Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson
Brandon McCarthy for John Danks

Of course, those deals can go in the opposite direction as well:
Matt Garza for Delmon Young
JP Howell for Joey Gathright and somebody named Fernando Cortes
Kevin Kouzmanoff for Josh Barfield

All told, the Indians’ draft performance in the 6-year stretch from 2002 to 2007 certainly contributed to the place that the organization finds itself in today (beginning another rebuild, reload…whatever), which certainly comes as a disappointment for an organization designed to rely on the contributions of young talent. However, when compared to the rest of the AL Central’s performance over the same timeframe, the Indians don’t find themselves too far behind their divisional opponents in terms of drafting and developing talent.

Whether that track record can improve for the Indians (or is even on its way to improvement) remains to be seen as a team like the Indians, having the knowledge as early as 2002 that they’re going to have to rely on tools like the draft to contend, need to outpace their divisional rivals because the other avenues (like FA) in place for teams like Detroit and Chicago, without regard for payroll, are dead ends for the Tribe.

From 2002 to 2007, that just didn’t happen…putting us squarely where we sit today, looking up in the standings, left with only hope for the future.

Tomahawks Back From the Road

After spending a Labor Day weekend doing my best Clark W. Griswold by building a weekend around a wedding in Philadelphia with stops in Chocolate World in Hershey, PA, Sesame Street Place, and a quick jaunt to the Jersey Shore, it’s time to take a quick break from regretting not seeing the biggest ball of twine in the world during our East Coast Swing and release some Tomahawks:
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The big news in the Tepee is that Grady will be shut down for the season to undergo the elbow surgery that we all knew was coming and also to have surgery on the groin issue that precluded him from playing in the WBC so many months ago when hopes were still high.

While Sizemore’s season certainly comes as a disappointment due to his injuries, does anyone realize that Grady’s .788 OPS puts him 3rd among AL CF, behind only Granderson (.800) and Adam “Don’t Call me Pac-Man” Jones (.792). Detractors of Sizemore love to point out that Grady has yet to take that “next step” into the elite stratosphere of MLB superstars, particularly given that the promise of his age-23 season in 2006 certainly portended greatness for him.

Consider though that in the 106 games this year (about 65% of the season) that he played this year, he had 44 extra-base hits and 18 HR. Extrapolating those numbers out would give Grady 67 XBH (still down from his 2008 numbers, though not by much) and 27 HR if he were to play 162 games.

The “next step” will have to wait, but for a player who battled injury (in two places apparently) for much of the season, an injured Grady Sizemore is better than most players in MLB at 100%, and getting Sizemore back to that 100% mark should be Priority #1 (or #1a or #1b or something) of the off-season, particularly given his increased importance to this team.

Now with Sizemore shut down, Mike Brantley will get a long look in MLB as an OF and a lead-off hitter without stealing AB from either Matt LaPorta or Andy Marte, and the early returns have been good, as Brantley is off to a hot start, particularly in showing his ability to get on base.

Depending upon what happens at 3B (and as a by-product 1B and…wait for it all to come around…LF), Brantley still probably starts 2010 in AAA, if only because his age and performance in AAA this year show that he could probably use some more MiLB experience before ascending to take an everyday spot in the lineup. However, with each passing AB and while the “Ben Francisco Hot Start” caveat should be blaring in everyone’s head, Brantley is showing that he has the talent and the maturity to convey that the spot in the every day lineup is not far off.
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While in Philadelphia, I was reading the Sunday Sports page of the Philly Inquirer and (once I got past all of the Eagles analysis), I caught this little beauty in the “On Baseball” section:
While the Cliff Lee trade has been celebrated in Philadelphia, it has been scorned in Cleveland.

Infielder Jason Donald, one of four players the Indians got for Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco, has been on the disabled list in triple A with a back strain.

Pitcher Carlos Carrasco was hammered for six runs, including three homers, in three innings in his big-league debut Tuesday at Detroit.

On top of all this, righthander Jason Knapp, the key piece in the deal, was shut down last week with shoulder soreness. Knapp, a 19-year-old whose fastball reaches the high 90s, is already being referred to as damaged goods in Cleveland.

The Indians wouldn't have much of a leg to stand on if they tried to grieve the trade. Knapp had spent time on the disabled list with tendinitis and discomfort in his shoulder before the trade, and the Indians knew that. Their medical people did their due diligence on his condition and still made the deal. As in all trades, it is buyer beware.

The one hope in all this is that Knapp recovers, comes back healthy, reaches his tremendous potential, and has a great career.

“Scorned” may be a strong word as it’s obviously far too early to make a fair judgment on anything having to do with the Lee deal from the Indians perspective because of the nature of the players that they received. However, Donald’s quick trip to the DL and the continuing concern about Knapp’s pitching arm (particularly since he’s still so far away from MLB) certainly raise some red flags on some of the principals of the deal.

After walking around Sesame Street Place and counting ten (that’s right…TEN) Cliff Lee Phillies’ jerseys among the Philly faithful, let’s just say that reading that in the paper a couple of days later did not sit well with me…or maybe it was all the delicious Yuengling the night before at the wedding.
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With the minor-league seasons pulling into the gate and the MiLB hardware being handed out to the likes of Carlos Santana and Jeanmar Gomez, I thought it might be a good time to list off the players in the Tribe organization who posted the highest OBP, SLG, and OPS at Lake County or higher with more than 300 cumulative AB.

For some of the players, the numbers are cumulative at a few levels, but the names (with applicable ages and levels) should be fairly well-known at this point:

OBP
.413 – Carlos Santana (Age 23 – Akron)
.386 – Cord Phelps (Age 22 – Kinston)
.383 – Tim Fedroff (Age 22 – Kinston)
.381 – Jordan Brown (Age 25 – Columbus)
.378 - Jose Costanza (Age 25 - Akron)

SLG
.551 – Andy Marte (Age 25 – Columbus, Cleveland)
.532 – Jordan Brown (Age 25 – Columbus)
.530 – Carlos Santana (Age 23 – Akron)
.501 – Matt LaPorta (Age 24 – Columbus, Cleveland)
.489 – Matt McBride (Age 24 – Kinston, Akron)

OPS
.943 – Carlos Santana (Age 23 – Akron)
.913 – Jordan Brown (Age 25 – Columbus)
.900 – Andy Marte (Age 25 – Cleveland, Columbus)
.867 – Matt LaPorta (Age 24 – Columbus, Cleveland)
.829 – Matt McBride (Age 24 – Kinston, Akron)

So…what number do you think Santana will wear in Cleveland so I can pre-order a jersey?

Seriously though, lots of those names have become common knowledge over the course of the year, but it’s always interesting to see guys like Matt McBride “break through” and put up a big year with numbers that look great…until you consider their age against players also at their level. If you consider that Nick Weglarz played the whole season in Akron at the age of 21 (posting a .808 OPS) and Lonnie Chisenhall played in Kinston and Akron at the age of 20 (posting a cumulative .797 OPS), you start to see how the disparity in ages starts to separate some of the more exciting players (like Weglarz and The Chiz) from guys that may make it to MLB, but likely not as potential impact players.
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One of the big topics on conversation at the wedding this weekend was the structure of baseball in terms of the “haves” and “have-nots” as fans from Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia all weighed in on what we’ve covered here at length.

As usual, Joe Posnanski offers an insightful and thought-provoking article on just that topic with some jarring reminders on the recent track records of particular franchises:
Here's the thing. You already know that the Pirates now have 17 straight losing seasons. But what you might not know -- or at least might not have thought about -- is that over those 17 years, eight other teams have had long stretches of losing baseball.
• The Baltimore Orioles have had 11 straight losing seasons, and they are one loss away from extending that streak to 12.
• The Cincinnati Reds are likely to clinch their ninth straight losing season soon enough.
• The Kansas City Royals have had losing seasons 14 of the last 15 years and -- this is actually quite remarkable -- have more losses over the last 17 years than Pittsburgh.
• The Milwaukee Brewers had 12 consecutive losing seasons end in 2004, and after rising up and making the playoffs last year, they are struggling again.
• The Detroit Tigers had a stretch of 12 consecutive losing seasons end in 2005.
• The Tampa Bay Rays had 10 straight losing seasons before shocking everyone last year.
• The Minnesota Twins had a streak of eight consecutive losers end in 2000.
• The Philadelphia Phillies had a streak of seven straight losing season end in 2000.

The whole piece is worth your time, if only to get a look past the bubble that we sometimes live in as Indians fans…particularly in an awful season like this one.
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As for me, it’s time for a nap after a 10-hour trip back on Labor Day in the old Family Truckster, fighting Jersey Shore traffic back West and disappointed by not being able to listen to a Tribe game for the last couple of hours.

Third Watch

The roster for 2010 certainly looks at this point to be shaping up – with the majority of the lineup spoken for (with a big question coming as to who’s going to be holding a place for Carlos Santana when he’s ready at C), the principals that figure into the rotation and bullpen essentially known if not who fits where, and the likelihood that a new manager will be filling out the lineup card next year.

As the situation gets clearer in most spots though, one is definitely seeing the introduction of shades of gray, with more brushstrokes clouding the picture by the day. I speak of course, as to who will be playing 3B for the Indians next year. When the Indians finally made the shift in their infield to move Jhonny to 3B, it was generally assumed that he would stay there at least until the end of his contract, with the guaranteed portion of his contract ($4.6M remaining) ending after 2010. The question as to whether his 2011 team option (for $7M with a $250K buyout) would be picked up looked to be one for a day far in the future, if only because it was assumed that no feasible alternative existed internally for the Indians at 3B for next year.

Then, Andy Marte started hitting in Columbus and kept hitting in Columbus…then Andy Marte started getting everyday playing time in Cleveland (albeit as a 1B) and kept hitting. Suddenly, the situation is not as cut-and-dry as one would have thought a few months ago as the presence of a viable internal option brings into question whether the Indians should pay Peralta $4.6M next year, given his inconsistencies as a hitter, his frustrating nature as a fielder, and the fact that a more affordable alternative exists to take his place at 3B next year.

As it stands today, Peralta sits on a line of .275 BA / .335 OBP / .411 SLG / .743 OPS, a performance pretty much in line with what his career batting line looked like entering the season (.268 BA / ..335 OBP / .437 SLG / .771 OPS), and now at the age of 27, it’s fair to assume that this basically is what Jhonny Peralta is as a hitter. He’s streaky and while he found great success at a young age in MLB, he’s never taken that next step into the elite, despite a few very good years in 2005 and 2008.

This year, Peralta has been moved out of his customary spot at SS, with the move to 3B coming after being told all winter that he would be playing SS. While the struggles of his early season (his OPS was .573 in early May) could be chalked up to the uncertainty of his situation, since he’s moved to 3B full-time, he’s posted a respectable .789 OPS over 93 games, batting clean-up for a good part of that stretch.

Would Peralta thrive similarly next year if he was given every indication that he would be playing 3B every day in 2010? Or would he continue to mire in the inconsistency that we’ve grown accustomed to with him as a player, subject to frustrating stretches most recently seen in the field on Wednesday night?

The questions that still plague Peralta, in terms of what can legitimately be expected of him given his contract status are made more important by the fact that Andy Marte now stands as a potential replacement – albeit a potential replacement about whom many more questions remain as to what can legitimately be expected from him in 2010 and beyond.

Before getting into the unknowns about Andy Marte, let’s deal with the known factors – he was once a top prospect who has resurrected his career (this we all know) and, if you’re looking at next year, it’s inarguable that he is a capable defensive 3B who will make the league minimum this year.

But how does the Indians’ organization feel about Marte as a hitter going forward?
Left unclaimed by 29 teams in the off-season and entering the 2009 season with a .603 career MLB OPS, he thrived in AAA (something he hadn’t done since 2005 as a 21-year-old in the Braves’ organization) to the tune of a .963 OPS for Columbus, earning him a trip to Cleveland and ultimately a spot in the everyday lineup as a 1B. The opportunity is something that he has run with, albeit in a small sample size, posting a line of .340 BA / .353 OBP / .660 SLG / 1.013 OPS in the 13 games that he has started consecutively.

This, of course, may be a matter of Marte pulling a “Ben Francisco” by getting hot when called up, with the inevitable crash-and-burn back to reality just around the corner; but Marte’s performance over the last three weeks has merited him a shot at a roster spot in 2010, and a pretty serious shot given the opportunities that currently abound within the organization. What role he is seen in remains the great unknown, as does the identity of the person who figures to be determining that role for Marte in 2010 – the manager.

The Indians face an interesting quandary at 3B and it’s one that doesn’t just affect Peralta and Marte as it would seem that the position occupied by Matt LaPorta would be directly affected by whether Peralta stays – meaning Marte presumably stays at 1B and LaPorta in LF – or goes – meaning Marte presumably moves to 3B and LaPorta moves to 1B. Beyond Vanilla Thunder (that’s LaPorta) then, the waterfall rolls on with Michael Brantley likely coming into the mix at some point in 2010 as a potential LF and the thought that Jordan Brown could serve as a place-holder in LF or at 1B until the likes of Brantley and perhaps Weglarz are closer to being MLB-ready.

The decision on Peralta versus Marte is not as simple as some may paint it to simply jettison Peralta in favor of Marte to “see what he can do”, if only because while 2010 represents a transitional year, going into the season without Peralta puts another young player (perhaps not quite ready for an everyday role) into the lineup and removes some of the “stability” that a relatively known quantity like Peralta provides. Removing Peralta from the lineup means that the most experienced player (assuming that Hafner could still be on the on-again-off-again playing time schedule and that Show Pack’s arbitration number precludes him from the 2010 club) that figures into the everyday lineup past Sizemore is The BLC, he of the 288 career games.

While some may be clamoring for a complete page-turn in terms of the team, I suppose I'd fall more in line with the thought process that while Peralta no longer projects as a “core” member of this team, he still provides some semblance of stability and may actually grow into 3B at a salary that, while higher than that of Marte, certainly doesn’t fall under the “albatross” category. If Peralta thrives in his role as a 3B for the Indians in 2010 and the players who may need half of a season in AAA before being truly ready to contribute, the possibility of trading Peralta at next year’s trading deadline exists with the idea that Marte could then slide over from 1B (unless Lonnie Chisenhall scoots through the system faster than we think…which is unlikely as he’s more apt to follow the Carlos Santana path to the Bigs), making room for LaPorta at 1B and Brantley in LF in preparation for the year that the team is more likely to contend – 2011.

Ultimately, barring a “can’t-miss-trade” that is unlikely to present itself this off-season, I'd keep Peralta into next year to see what “Jhonny the 3B” looks like with a full off-season to prepare himself for that role, leaving Marte at 1B to get everyday AB and LaPorta in LF, with a player like Jordan Brown or Gimenez serving as the back-up to both. If a decision is necessary on Peralta’s trade value in July of next year (with his price tag for 2010 being cut substantially if he is moved), make that decision one that has become necessary because a young player has forced himself into the conversation (instead of ascending to MLB without arriving as a MLB-ready player) with the hopes that Peralta can keep the 3B seat warm for a little while longer, which is all the Indians really need him to do.

All Hands on Deck

September is upon us and more of the young players are arriving to the North Coast as Carlos Carrasco receives his first start on Tuesday night while Mike Brantley makes his trip up I-71 to move another name from the “recently acquired” list (relatively speaking) to the “recently promoted” list and more are likely to be on their way, most notably C Lou Marson…another of the “recently acquired” variety.

While September call-ups generally give teams a look at some of their young players who may or may not figure into the immediate plans for the following year, that “try-out” mode has actually been in effect with the Indians for a few months now as young players have ascended to the parent club (with varying results) even before the Mark DeRosa deal. This recent group of call-ups simply represents the next batch of players whose role in the organization in 2010 will likely be determined in the next month of games, off-season decisions, and a full Spring Training in Arizona.

Looking over the active roster (now standing at 27 with Carrasco and Brantley), let’s take a quick look at how many of those players began the season in AAA, be it in Columbus or elsewhere:
Laffey
Sowers
Huff
Carrasco
Ohka
Sipp
Todd
Chris Perez (yes, he did…if only for 4 innings in Louisville)
LaPorta
Valbuena
Marte
Gimenez
Toregas
Brantley

Want to throw Crowe (on the 15-day DL) on that list?
Have at it, but even without him, that’s 14 of the 27 players currently on the active roster who started the season in Columbus or Louisville (the Cardinals’ AAA affiliate) with more likely to come to perhaps tip the scales well past the 50% mark of the active roster who began 2009 in the Minors.

For the Indians in the last month of the season…the future is now.
But how far into the future do the Indians want to look or, to put it another way, how should the Indians manage the playing time of so many of these youngsters, most of whom factor into 2010 in some capacity?

The first answer came with the Carrasco call-up as it was reported that a 6-man rotation would go into effect with Carmona and Masterson being the only pitchers being thrown every five games with the other starts coming from the combination of Laffey, Huff, Sowers, and Carrasco – effectively setting up what would be the beginning of the competition for the 2010 rotation. Still waiting for the call would be Hector Rondon, whose success in AAA has certainly merited a cursory promotion for a start or two for the Tribe with the opening for him likely coming when Dave Huff’s inning limit (around 160 when he’s at 140 2/3 between Columbus and Cleveland right now) is reached.

But if the Indians feel that Rondon should get his feet wet this year (or even if they wanted to revert back to that 5-man rotation when Huff hits his inning limit), an easier and more prudent solution exists by moving Jeremy Sowers to the bullpen to begin a possible transition to long man for 2010. This is old news, I know, when you look at what Sowers has done his first couple of times through the lineup, in early innings versus later innings, and so on and so on.

Recent success considered with Sowers (ERA of 3.71 in his last 7 starts), it’s time for the Indians to acknowledge that with Sowers out of options after this year and with a career 5.14 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 66 games started in his career that the likelihood of Sowers staying effective enough as a starter throughout the 2010 season is diminishing…if it isn’t already gone. Yes, Sowers’ value as a starter is inherently more than his value as a long man, but with the risk of losing him if he’s exposed to waivers after Spring Training of next year being a reality, moving him to the bullpen now to see if Sowers’ value as a long man can keep him in the organization instead of seeing him walk away at some point next year for next to nothing.

What’s preventing this move from happening right now…Tomo Ohka’s precious role as current long-man?
Is there an actual belief that Sowers is going to be consistently effective enough that he’s going to have his spot in the 2010 rotation cemented when so many arms are going to be moving in and out of said rotation?

I can’t believe that there is, particularly if you consider that Westbrook (if healthy), Carmona, and Laffey are all out of options as well and that the team seems awfully committed to Masterson as a starter, meaning that Sowers would have to start the year as the 5th starter and remain there through thick and thin, leaving players like Carrasco, Rondon, and Huff to fill the roles of 6th, 7th, and 8th organizational starter. Maybe that’s the plan (though it would certainly be short-sighted given the lack of roster flexibility in that rotation, save an injury), but an easy solution exists for freeing up starts for some of these young pitchers and perhaps finding a role for Jeremy Sowers in the long-term as well…and that is the long-overdue move of Sowers to the bullpen.

Speaking of finding time for some of these young players, the news that Mike Brantley will make his way topside has generated some excitement in that it puts another player who potentially fits into the team’s long-term plans on display in Cleveland. While Brantley may be here to spell a still-aching Grady Sizemore in CF, it’s important to note that Brantley still looks like far from a finished product if you’re looking at what he did in Columbus this year:
April
.217 BA / .299 OBP / .275 SLG / .574 OPS with 3 XBH and 5 SB in 17 games

May
.261 BA / .344 OBP / .383 SLG / .726 OPS with 10 XBH and 10 SB in 30 games

June
.271 BA / .368 OBP / .318 SLG / .686 OPS with 3 XBH and 15 SB in 28 games

July
.280 BA / .362 OBP / .402 SLG / .764 OPS with 6 XBH and 6 SB in 20 games

August
.298 BA / .366 OBP / .417 SLG / .782 OPS with 7 XBH and 10 SB in 21 games

To say he’s not a “finished product” however shouldn’t diminish what Brantley accomplished in AAA this year (overall .267 BA /.350 OBP / .361 SLG / .711 OPS), particularly in a year in which he battled injury in a league in which he was young for his level. Brantley is still a 22-year-old OF with tremendous on-base skills and a discerning batting eye (59 BB vs. 48 K this year) who led the International League in SB with 46 while earning raves from the Indians organization for his improved defense.

Rather than bemoaning that he isn’t quite ready based on 2009, his year puts his development in perspective as he’s done nothing to dampen the enthusiasm that he projects as a viable part of the next incarnation of the Indians; but it also reveals that he’s found AAA challenging enough this year. If that is the case, Brantley’s September with the parent club then shouldn’t be unlike many youngsters who came before him, where playing time may be sporadic (likely coming when Sizemore needs a night off or moves to DH with Hafner’s latest injury issue) but whets the appetite of a young player with a little taste of MLB.

For players like Brantley, September represents a glimpse into their future – a future that is not tomorrow, but is closer than it was in April – but not much more as AB should continue to be given out regularly to the likes of Matt LaPorta* and Andy Marte, players who either obviously figure in prominently to the 2010 team right out of the gate (like LaPorta) or find themselves out of options (like Marte), with a decision necessary in the off-season…a decision that can only be made legitimately with a larger body of work in terms of steady plate appearances.

*As a quick aside here while we’re on the topic of LaPorta, a few nicknames with some staying power have come my way for some of the youngsters who find themselves squarely in the Indians’ plans for the future. The first comes via reader John Mast, who has put forth that Valbuena shall heretofore referred to as…wait for it…Louis V (“Louis the Slugger”) as an odd sort of homage to the French monarch (yes, it would be said “Louie the Fifth”) who was known as “Louis the Sluggard”. And while “Sluggard” is not exactly complementary, if Louis V keeps knocking extra-base hits all over the yard, he may just become referred to as “King Louis V”.

The other bit of nomenclature comes from Jay Levin at LGT, who may have solved the mystery as to what Matt LaPorta should finally be called. Jay’s suggestion comes in the form of “Vanilla Thunder” with the variant of “ThunderMatt” allowing for the inevitable “Thunderstruck” at-bat music or even the Gator4God coming to bat with the “Thundercats” theme music blaring over the loudspeakers.

Louis V (“Louis the Slugger”) and Vanilla Thunder…The BLC and SuperSizemore welcome you.

Players like Brantley and even Jordan Brown may factor into the 2010 club at some point, but the luxury that the Indians have to begin them as depth options or go to Spring Training next year with them fighting for a roster spot (even if that fight looks like a long-shot) means that finding AB for Brantley or Brown or even a guy like Lou Marson (who probably has a better chance of starting 2010 with a prominent role for the Indians than either Brantley or Brown) shouldn’t come at the expense of players like LaPorta or even Andy Marte down the stretch in 2009.

For the next month, unlike LaPorta and Marte, some of these guys could join the mix of guys (like Gimenez, Toregas, and Crowe, when healthy) that play every couple of days but either don’t project as legitimate everyday players or simply aren’t finished products, ready for everyday exposure in MLB. That’s not to say that they don’t have worth or should spend the next month picking splinters, but the addition of more players to the team shouldn’t change the pleasant stability that the lineup has enjoyed for the past month.

Before jumping into the next phase of this overhaul, let’s find out where the first layer of these players (LaPorta, Marte, even Marson) fit in before completely making this even larger transition into the world of Brantley and Brown and, further down, Santana and Weglarz.

With all of these new, exciting names now donning the Indians’ uniform, it’s important to remember that 2010 is still likely to be a transition year with a full season of wheat separating itself from the chaff still to come, so patience actually becomes important at this stage in the rebuild…reload…whatever. If Brantley starts the season in AAA or Brown starts the season as depth in 2010, so be it – there should be no shortage of opportunities for either to distinguish themselves in an organization that saw the massive upheaval of events in 2009 and work their way into the legitimate discussion as everyday options.

That time however is not now – or at least not yet – and even despite that reality, the last month of the season just got a whole lot more interesting in a season during which we haven’t had much to look forward to since mid-June.

Lazy Sunday Rolling Right Along

While most of the North Coast feels more comfortable with the Brady Quinn jersey in their closet, I’m spending the morning thinking about another player trying to lay claim on a starting job – the guy whose numbers in the 9 games since he’s been inserted everyday into the starting lineup (.444 BA / .473 OBP / .777 SLG / 1.250 OPS with 3 HR and 12 RBI in 36 AB) – have certainly placed Andy Marte into the mix for 2010 because if judgments are going to made based on small doses that Marte is AAAA fodder, how about weighting the same small samples in the other direction?

While Marte’s success has certainly come as a nice surprise, let’s not let it overshadow the contributions of Matt LaPorta, who over that same 9-game stretch has posted a .343 BA / .333 OBP / .657 SLG / .990 OPS with 3 HR and 10 RBI in 35 AB while proving that his glove can, in fact, play in LF (as evidenced by the diving catch last night that you may have missed) if that’s where he eventually ends up.

But with the Wonder Twin power coming from a somewhat unlikely duo at the bottom of the lineup (perhaps begrudgingly) let’s get rolling into a Lazy Sunday:

While the focus on the North Coast for the remainder of this season is on 2010 and beyond (with Carlos Carrasco being scheduled for Tuesday’s start for the parent club) in terms of watching players like LaPorta contribute with more on the way, ’64 and Counting’s Vince Grzegorek lays out some worst-case scenarios for playoff time for Indians’ fans that have to do with some of the ex-Indians who turned into LaPorta and Carrasco, among others:
Ranked on a scale of “Better Not Happen Because I Might Punch My TV And Thusly Be Unable to Watch the Cav” to “Wouldn't Care.”
1. Victor Martinez Hits a Game-Winning Homer in ALCS or Later at Fenway
Mainly because the Red Sox "nation" is unbearable to begin with, and to see them celebrating wildly while Martinez circles the bases and slowly (remember, this is still Vic we're talking about) approaches the awaiting mob of Papelbon and Ortiz and Youkilis at home would be simply disgusting.
2. Cliff Lee vs. C.C. Sabathia, Game 1 of the World Series, Yankee Stadium.
Gut punch. Only possible way to describe this scenario.

As those very plausible scenarios have you grabbing for the antacid, let’s segue that right into the Cliff Lee interview that appeared in the PD this week. Much of the attention that has been paid to the interview focuses on Lee’s comments regarding fan support, or lack thereof (with a terrific retort by Dennis Manoloff) over the past two years:
DW: Do you feel bad for the fans who see the core of their team traded, fans who wonder, 'Why can't Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez still be around in 2010, to try to make another run at it?'
CL: Uh, it would help if the fans showed up and came to the games. That's why the team didn't make money, because the fans weren't there, supporting the team. That's what happens when the fans don't support --
DW: But you guys weren't winning.
CL: Right. It goes hand-in-hand, though. It definitely goes hand-in-hand. Yeah, I feel sorry for them. I wish we were all still there, that we had won the World Series in '07, come back and won it again last year and were going to win it this year. That's not reality. That's not...It's a business. It's a total business.

While this is seen by many as the most compelling exchange in the interview on the most provocative topic (and my well-stated feelings on that situation, which I don’t have time to look through the “archives” for are summed up better than I probably ever did in Castrovince’s mailbox last week), the portion of the interview that I found most fascinating was the talk of contracts and the story regarding negotiations on a possible extension in Spring Training of this year:
DW: After the trades, Indians President Paul Dolan said you were not going to re-sign with the Indians after 2010. Did Dolan present it accurately?
CL: They told my agent that when we got to spring training this year, we'll talk about an extension. We get there, the first half of spring goes by...nothing. We get down toward the end, they call me in the office and tell me, 'Never mind. We've changed our minds.'
At that point, I told them: 'For me, now's the time. After this year, I'm going to be one year from free agency, and you're going to have to pick up my option if I'm pitching well. Otherwise, I'm a free agent. It doesn't make sense to do it one year out when I just watched what CC did.'
DW: Sabathia, of course, was traded to Milwaukee in 2008 and signed with the Yankees over the winter.
CL: Free agency is where you want to get as a player. That's where you get strength and have control of a situation. Obviously, the closer you get to that, the less likely an extension would be. That's kind of what I told them.

As an addendum to that little recount before going any further, here’s a relevant bit of information on that topic from Jayson Stark in his latest Rumblings and Grumblings regarding Lee’s signability after the 2010 season, given the Phillies’ policy to limiting three years guaranteed in contracts to pitchers:
Lee, however, will be a free agent heading into his 32-year-old season. And the buzz already is that his agent, Darek Braunecker, is looking for a deal beyond the Phillies' customary parameters.

“Darek Braunecker is going to try to kill it with this guy,” said an official of one team that looked into Lee before the trade deadline. “There's no doubt in my mind. He'll be looking for $100 million. And I don't blame him.

“But you know what? From the Phillies' standpoint, if you get this guy for a year and a half and he's motivated as hell and he's absolutely dominant and then he leaves and you get two picks, wouldn't you rather be that team than the team that has to give him $100 million. I would. Maybe you'd rather have 2½ years than 1½ years. But you don't want six years, because those are the deals that get scary.”

While Lee’s telling of the Spring Training episode certainly paints the Indians in a light in which they suddenly changed their mind in terms of sitting down at the negotiating table, how relevant is the fact that OTHER teams are aware that his agent is “going to try to kill it with this guy…looking for $100M”?

Let’s remember where we were in Spring Training with Cliff Lee, with him coming off of a monumentally successful 2008 campaign, but less than two years from being sent to the Minors due to his struggles. When 2009 started, Lee was a 30-year-old with a 4.16 career ERA and a career as a whole that looked more like Aaron Harang or Charles Nagy than Sandy Koufax. That’s not to discount the fact that Lee has evolved very quickly into an utterly dominant starter; rather, it’s to put the conversation of whether the Indians should have even entertained the notion of extending CP Lee into some context and into the proper timeframe.

Throw in this idea that Lee’s agent probably didn’t hide his feelings that Lee was likely to hit the FA market after the 2010 season, with Lee telling Manoloff, “free agency is where you want to get as a player. That's where you get strength and have control of a situation. Obviously, the closer you get to that, the less likely an extension would be. That's kind of what I told them” and the water becomes a little clearer. If Lee and his agent are known by other teams’ executives to be looking for a deal that would likely cover 6 years and pay $100M for a pitcher that will be 32 when that deal kicks in, why would the Indians even entertain that notion if their best offer to Sabathia was a 4-year, $72M extension to a younger player with a longer and better track record than that of Lee?

Should the Indians have entertained signing Lee at the price of what he’s looking for – an average of about $16M for the seasons in which he will be ages 32 to 37?
Certainly not, but the exec in Stark’s piece said, “From the Phillies' standpoint, if you get this guy for a year and a half and he's motivated as hell and he's absolutely dominant and then he leaves and you get two picks, wouldn't you rather be that team than the team that has to give him $100 million. I would. Maybe you'd rather have 2½ years than 1½ years. But you don't want six years, because those are the deals that get scary.”

So it gets back to whether the Indians should have been the team to capitalize on that year and a half being “motivated as hell” and “dominant” or whether the idea that the window of contention was on its way down for the Indians (with or without CP Lee) and change was needed.

If you believe some of the numbers that were relayed to Terry Pluto by Paul Dolan (that the team was going to lose $20M this year before the trades and were likely to lose $30M next season if the trades weren’t made), it certainly looks like the trades were financially motivated, not even getting into the notion that extending Lee was entertained at any point. Thus, when the decision was made to act quickly, it was done with an eye to not only keep some of that money but with an eye towards also to creating that next window of opportunity because of a surprising lack of talent on the horizon. As Dolan tells Pluto regarding marketing the team in 2010, “it still would have been a challenge because we could not have improved the team, and been in even bigger trouble in 2011 because we would not have added any of the young talent that we did in these deals.”

Why that “bigger trouble” was coming is the MUCH bigger question in the equation as to why the pipeline ran dry, but the “window of opportunity” concept is one that Ken Rosenthal gets into when discussing the quandary that the Rays face with Carl Crawford and whether to trade him this off-season or take another run at the AL East next year and how it relates to the “window” for the current Rays team:
The psychology of team building is different in the low-rent district of the AL East. The Rays, like the Blue Jays and Orioles, operate with virtually no margin for error.

“You've got to pick and choose your windows,” an executive from one of those clubs says. “And when you pick one, you've got to nail it. You can't miss.”

The defending AL champion Rays, who visit the Tigers this weekend…already are peeking out of a window that is rapidly closing.

While wrapping your head around the notion from Rosenthal that the Rays (yes, the ones that burst on the scene just last year with so much promise ahead of them) are “peeking out of a window that is rapidly closing”, let us all thank heaven that the Indians find themselves in a better situation than the three teams that Rosenthal references, if only for the fact that the Tribe doesn’t reside in the AL East.

Couple that piece by Rosenthal with the news that the Rays traded 25-year-old Scott Kazimir to the Angels with Rob Neyer putting the Kazimir move in context in terms of team expectations and the inevitable fan backlash:
The Rays don't play their games on paper, though, and I'm surprised they would make this deal. Yes, maybe the performance hit they're taking is negligible. But try explaining that to the fans, particularly when the guy you're dealing is arguably the franchise's all-time pitcher. Would Kazmir really have been worth less on the trade market this winter, or next spring, or next July?

What is it again that we’ve been saying about these small “windows of opportunity” for the majority of MLB teams and how they have to manage assets on their team without regard for fan reaction to not go into an extended organizational tailspin with no bottom in sight, like the one in Kansas City that Joe Posnanski speaks of…at length.

Suddenly, we have this “Brave New World” question facing teams like the Indians – what is the best way to compete and contend in a league in which the margin of error is razor thin, is it better to allow your own talent to run its course (as the Royals are doing) or is it more prudent to remain pro-active with a roster, to inject talent into a system at the expense of known quantities (as the Indians are doing, among others with teams like the Rays nearing that point of critical mass)…even if that talent is far away from contributing at a MLB level?
Obviously, that’s another topic for another day – but it certainly is something to ponder on a rainy Sunday.

Finally (and apropos of nothing), from the Department of Probably Interesting to Me and Nobody Else, how about this article on the New Era company who is the exclusive manufacturer for MLB hats, which mentions that the Rochester, NY-based company’s first contract with an MLB team was with the Cleveland Indians in 1934.

It provides more information that you would ever really need to know about hats and as a recovering hat-aholic (back in the day when the “Three-Bar Game Hats” were all the rage, before they became standard issue as part of the fraternity dress code) who hasn’t worn a hat regularly in quite a while (despite the fact that The DiaBride sweetly tells me on summer days to wear one to “block the sun from your head where your hair doesn’t anymore”), I find the whole thing quite fascinating…even if New Era is responsible for some of the off-color and giant logo monstrosities that you see around these days.

As for now, it’s time to get that Marte jersey on order to hang next to my Quinn jersey in the closet because The Dominican Dandy is back…for now, at least.

Tomahawks – Past, Present, & Future

As the inevitable second-half push continues and Kerry Wood is getting perilously close to being on pace to vest that third year option (on pace for 53 games finished with the option vesting at 55 games finished), let’s release some tomahawks of what might have been, what is, and what could be
__________

In case you haven’t noticed, the Erie Warriors have now won 8 of the last 11 series, only losing series to the Angels twice and the Rangers once in that span that includes 4 series “wins” against AL Central opponents, besting Minnesota twice and Detroit and Kansas City once each in recent series.

Why is this relevant?
You may have blocked out this unhappy memory, but the Indians started the season out winning only 6 of their first 21 series to start the season, culminating in that travesty in Wrigley, after which their record stood at 29-42 (10 games out of the AL Central) on June 22nd. But that didn’t even count as their low-water mark of the season as the Tribe would sit at 36-57, an embarrassing 21 games under .500 (only losing 3 ½ games in the AL Central standings despite going 7-15) on July 20th, nearly a full month after the season was essentially lost under the summer sun on the North Side of Chicago.

Since that low-water mark of 36-57 however, the Indians have somehow rallied (as they always do) with two of their best players and some complementary players at the beginning of the season competing elsewhere and have posted a 20-13 in their last 33 games (.606 winning percentage) to pull as close to .500 as they’ve been since late June…still a whopping 14 games under .500.

Realizing that this is all terribly painful to read, watching the events in the Mile High City forces this to be re-visited. That is, Colorado manager Clint Hurdle was fired on May 30th, with the Rockies sitting at 20-28, a shocking 12 ½ games out of the NL West race. As you may have noticed, the word “Rocktober” has apparently entered the general lexicon once more, since they Rockies have gone 52-27 since that time, playing at a nearly impossible .658 clip over nearly ½ of an MLB season to pull within 3 games of the NL West, taking a lead in the NL Wild Card race in the process.

Yes, this is likely the exception to any and all rules having to do with managerial changes, but let’s just say this recent hot streak by the Indians could have started…oh, I don’t know…after that series in Chicago with the Indians starting this stretch of .600 baseball starting in late-June instead of late-July. Instead of the 27-28 that they’ve gone since exiting the “friendly confines” of 1060 West Addison Street, (taking great leaps in assumption, I know) the Indians would be sitting on a record of 33-22 in those 55 games, which would have put their cumulative record at 62-64 or ½ a game behind the Twins and White Sox in the standings and 5 games back of the AL Central leading Tigers.

By no means am I suggesting that this WOULD have happened as the team is the team is the team and the bullpen revival has certainly assisted in this stretch of good baseball, but the remote chance that this hot streak could have started a month earlier was taken out of play when the Indians decided to “stay the course” and, as a result, the Indians’ careers of CP Lee and El Capitan were ended, as was much hope that 2010 represented any more than a transitional year. Maybe that’s putting too much credence into the spark that a managerial change can cause (and certainly not every team does what the Rockies have done or managers would drop like flies every May and June), but the opportunity to turn the page was lost.

Certainly, it can be argued that the performance of the team over the last three weeks (with what looks to be pretty much the 2010 roster) portends good things for the Indians, if they can ride this wave of momentum into April of next year. But I’ve learned my lesson (the hard way…a couple of times) on that to know not to base expectations on second half performance. Unfortunately, I know because the Jensen Lewis down the stretch in 2008 was not necessarily what should have been reasonably expected from him in 2009, just as the current stretch of success from Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, and Matt LaPorta may not have too much bearing on what expectations should be for 2010 for each player.

That all being said, and looking out at the future from these rose-colored glasses, there are promising signs…
__________

While this probably feels like old news, the continued development of Louis V.B. continues to be one of the great revelations of the 2009 season, particularly given his age and his advancement. Realizing that I’ve used this same comparison to point out how special Asdrubal’s season truly is in context, realize that there are only 18 players in MLB that are 23 or younger that have appeared as many plate appearances as Luis Valbuena (Asdrubal is obviously one of them) this season.

The only players among those that have posted a higher OPS to date than Valbuena are guys that you may have heard of – Pablo Sandoval, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutcheon, Billy Butler, Gordon Beckham, the aforementioned Asdrubal, Adam Jones, Dexter Fowler, Everth Cabrera, and Colby Rasmus.

Most of those players have shown themselves to be impact MLB players at a wildly young age or their names dot the pre-season top prospect lists.

While Valbuena’s moderate platoon split is should not go unmentioned (career OPS of .710 vs. LHP, career OPS of .813 vs. RHP), take a look at these comparisons when between what looks to be the double-play combo of the future against a familiar double-play combo of the past when all four players were playing out their seasons at the age of 23:
Luis Valbuena – Age 23 - .732 OPS
29 extra-base hits in 280 PA

Asdrubal Cabrera – Age 23 - .812 OPS
41 extra-base hits in 455 PA

Carlos Baerga – Age 23 - .809 OPS
53 extra-base hits in 716 PA

Omar Vizquel – Age 23 - .593 OPS
7 extra-base hits in 285 PA

Beginning to see how special the two of those players could be for the Indians going forward?

Combined with Sizemore in CF and Santana presumed to be knocking down the door in 2010 as the catcher, strength up the middle may finally come into play again for the Indians, boasting exceptional players (both offensively and defensively) up the middle.
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Does anyone else continue to be blown away that the Indians netted Chris Perez from the Cardinals for a few months of Mark DeRosa, with Jess Todd to boot?

While this has been covered elsewhere, look at what hitters have done against the 23-year-old Perez in his last 16 appearances:
.118 BA / .182 OBP / .157 SLG / .339 OPS with 20 K and 4 BB in 16 1/3 IP

To put Perez’s youth in perspective, he’s 5 months younger than the closer in Akron and 4 months older than the closer in Lake County. While that may be more of an indictment of those two minor-leaguers as organizational depth than anything else, Perez is accomplishing exactly what the Cardinals thought he would when they made him a 1st Round Pick as he looks to be on track as a potential future closer.

As long as we’re lauding our new bullpen, how about what opposing hitters have done against LHP Tony “Don’t Give Up The” Sipp over his last 11 appearances:
.156 BA / .182 OBP / .281 SLG / .463 OPS with 10 K and 1 BB in 9 2/3 IP

Yes, I know that things can fall apart rather quickly for young relievers (Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez, wherefore art thou), but Christopher Ralph (Mercedes) Perez and Sipp look to be moving comfortably into the role of set-up men, along with Joe Smith as the designated ROOGY, with a greater level of talent beneath them on the bullpen ladder.
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Staying in the small-sample size department, how about this comparison:
Matt LaPorta since first game after being recalled on August 19th
.346 BA / .333 OBP / .654 SLG / .987 OPS with 6 XBH in 27 plate appearances in 7 games started

Ryan Garko since trade to San Francisco on July 27th
.235 BA / .295 OBP / .358 SLG / .653 OPS with 5 XBH in 88 plate appearances in 21 games started

Ben Francisco since trade to Philadelphia on July 29th
.220 BA / .267 OBP / .463 SLG / .730 OPS with 6 XBH in 45 plate appearances in 8 games started

Just to take one more swing at the dead horse at my feet – why didn’t LaPorta come up earlier to play everyday, even if it meant Garko and Francisco moving to part-time roles back in June?
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Going back to the idea that the team that we’re seeing likely makes up the 2010 roster, this off-season is likely to be one of crickets and minor moves, particularly if you figure that the Indians already made their moves for 2010 about a month ago and this year and next represents the time to let those moves play out. Of course, that’s not to say that some moves aren’t coming – most notably, Shoppach (for better or worse) looks to be headed elsewhere for someone else to pay that arbitration number with Marson/Toregas/Gimenez in the fold and Santana presumed to be knocking at the door and a decision on whether Peralta would look like “Second Half Jhonny” with a full off-season knowing where he’s playing on the field needs to be made – but in a 2010 season in which contention is a possibility and certainly not a foregone conclusion, can we put a moratorium on the “where we should dip into Free Agency would be…” talk as the pieces seem to be in place both at or near the MLB level to fill every spot on the team. It may not be filled with a sure thing, but you want some “additions” made to this current crop of talented youngsters coming up?

Looking at the list of potential Free Agents and realizing that the assumed pay grade of the guys who would figure into the Indians’ radar trends closer to Brad Penny than John Lackey, does anyone really want to see innings taken away from a potential stalwart in the rotation (yes, maybe that “stalwart” status takes a year or more to develop) by a reclamation project?
Haven’t we played this game before?

You want some “additions”?
OK, here’s my wish list for “additions” for 2010:
Fausto Carmona – closer to 2007 form than 2008/1st half of 2009 form
Travis Hafner – playing every day
Jake Westbrook – healthy for a full season
Grady Sizemore – 100% healthy all season

You’ll notice that there are no names on that “wish list” that aren’t currently under contract for 2010 or well past 2010.
Know why?
This team is getting closer (but is by no means undoubtedly close) to contention in 2010; if we’re all surprised by a run at contention in 2010…great. But I don’t have a problem making that run with a payroll that hovers around $60M to $65M, even if it means that placeholders like Andy Marte, Jordan Brown, or Trevor Crowe holding down a position on an everyday basis for the likes of Mike Brantley, Nick Weglarz, or Lonnie Chisenahall later in 2010 or in 2011.

If you think the team needs some “veteran presence”, how about Wood, Westbrook, Hafner, and Sizemore leading the way for the youngsters in the bullpen, the rotation, and the lineup?

Ultimately, I’m all for the idea that this collection of players we’re seeing today is the beginning of the team that is supposed to lead us into the next run. Knowing that there’s more beneath this group of players within the system, let’s figure out what we have internally before wasting time and money on someone who doesn’t factor in when the real contention is supposed to start.

Is that too much to ask for this off-season, besides a new manager for 2010?

Playing Favorites

While the title of this piece may immediately convey a pending denunciation (again) on the lineup stylings of The Atomic Wedgie, it is not intended to shed light upon why Ben Francisco and Chris Gimenez took playing time away from Matt LaPorta in 2009 or why the manager of a MLB team offers deafening praise for a young(ish) 1B/3B who has experienced some much-needed success after a few years of wandering the desert.

No, this isn’t meant to throw another shovel of dirt into a grave that should have been sufficiently covered back in June, at least not today…OK, maybe a little of that intro found some gray area on the topic.

Rather, there’s been an interesting conversation at home as The DiaBride is having some difficulty picking a new “favorite player” since all of hers are essentially now elsewhere and in the mind of the 2 ½-year-old Indians’ fan who sleeps well thanks to the comfort provided by a Grady Sizemore blanket under the watchful eye of a Grady bobblehead, EVERYONE needs to have a favorite player. Surprising as it may be, the issue has actually caused quite a bit of debate around the house over the past few weeks, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the feelings of my beautiful bride are not unlike that of many Indians’ fans in the wake of the massive overhaul of the roster in 2009.

To her, who moved to Cleveland in 2000, this incarnation of the Indians is the only one that she’s known as a fan and these players are the ones to which she has obviously formed an emotional attachment to. While I don’t remember what it was like when my beloved Pat Tabler was traded to the KC Royals for Bud Black, the last month has been jarring for her in the way that fans a generation above us re-tell the story of Rocky Colavito getting traded or, to a lesser extent, the disappointment that was felt when Carlos Baerga made his way to NYC (in a move that was softened by the Tribe’s continued success and Baerga’s freefall as a player after the trade) back in late July of 1996.

Without breaking any new ground, the decision-making “process” forced upon her by our son confirms a very simple truth when it comes to following a team – people like to have their favorite players and when their favorite players find themselves playing for other teams (generally regardless of the circumstances), the boat is rocked and apathy and/or anger is often the result. I remember my uncle canceling his season tickets after the 2000 season when the team let Sandy Alomar, Jr. walk away in Free Agency and me arguing with him at Christmas about it, telling him that Sandy was a 34-year-old catcher with a lot of wear on his tires, not worth a roster spot for a team that looked to be far away from contention. He told me that I didn’t understand because I had removed the emotional aspect of it – that to him, Sandy as an Indian represented that run in the 1990’s and his arrival in the Joe Carter trade signified the beginning of the renaissance that marked his best days as an Indians’ fan. He said that a team without Alomar didn’t feel like the winning Indians’ teams that were unlike the other ones that he had known in so many previous years.

No matter how much we went around and around on it, he stuck to his guns and proclaimed that his team, without his favorite player, wouldn’t get his money for season tickets. It was his line in the sand and while it seems ridiculous now (Alomar posted a .663 OPS as a part-time catcher for a little more than 5 seasons after that), I was reminded of it when The DiaBride waffled and continued to waffle on her new favorite player.

For some background on this as to why a new favorite is needed, she proclaimed Cliff Lee to be her favorite player back when liking Cliff Lee was not the cool thing to do…and I don’t mean 2007. I mean in 2003, when he had a late-season call-up and she made some comment that “he looks so serious out there, and I think that’s good for a pitcher…I like him.” Like him to the point that she wanted a Cliff Lee jersey, bearing the #34 that he wore at the time, purchasing it half-way through 2004. When 2005 arrived along with Kevin Millwood donning the #34 and C.P. Lee switching to #31, she became self-conscious about wearing the “wrong number” and decided to pick out Favorite Player 1a.

After much spirited debate and consideration, I remember her walking out of the Team Shop in 2005 with a #41 Martinez jersey (because “he’s always having fun and smiling”) came at the expense of what I presumed to be the favorite going into the store, a #1 Blake jersey, which didn’t quite make it to the sales clerk despite the fact that Blake “just goes out and does his job, even as everyone hates him”. If you’re following the names involved so far, 2008 was not an easy time for her fandom, what with Blake getting moved and CC (who she liked but thought too many people liked him) making his way to her native Milwaukee.

But 2009?
That’s been a whole other story as her two favorite players (as well as Garko, who she once saw picking up trash in the dugout after a game on TV, immediately vaulting him into that rare stratosphere of favorites) were traded in the course of three days and the anger took over, leading to proclamations that she was done with the Indians and done with baseball.

Back to the story though, as a 2 ½-year-old does not easily compute that someone could possibly not like the Indians and certainly could not grasp how someone could not like baseball. Thus, the questions continued as to who her favorite player was now that “Bicker on ‘nother team”. While she placated the Boy Wonder with the old “still thinking about it” lines, I told her one night that this wasn’t going to go away until she picked a player.

When I asked her then, who her favorite player was (if only to help the little man’s quest out), the answer that came from her echoed what I think a lot of Indians are feeling (and still feel), essentially calling into question why she should root for the Indians, why she should pay more than just a passing interest in a particular player or players if (as I explained to her) the reality in which the Indians operated was going to see players get moved regularly, often before the end of their line as productive players.

As hard as the idea of backing Asdrubal or The BLC was pushed, she backed away from it, not wanting to stick her hand even close to the fire with the memory of getting burned so fresh in her mind. I showed her the text from my buddy t-bone that the Indians had painted over the Lee and Martinez murals at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario with those of Cabrera and Choo in support of my lobbying, but the result was the opposite of the intent as she grew more dissatisfied that the Indians could so callously turn the corner on the players that had given her so much enjoyment as a fan.

She didn’t want to hear about payroll disparity in baseball or pick her player because she’d be able to root for them for a finite amount of time, she wanted something…someone to believe in again, and the current crop of options underwhelmed her.

After much prodding and a brief foray into “Crowe as favorite player” territory (which my son quickly dismissed, exclaiming correctly “but Mommy, nobody likes Crowe”), she settled on Chris Gimenez, if only because she thinks that his last name doesn’t look like it sounds and because we saw him at a function at the Cleveland Metroparks Zoo at which he could not have been a friendlier, more engaging person.

Despite the “choice” though, the bitterness and sadness remains as she sarcastically asks me (the one who has “removed the emotional aspect of it” in my uncle’s words years ago) how long I’ll be able to wear the Grady throwback that she got me last year because he’s surely the next to go. At that time, even I wonder if I’ll be able to wear the Sizemore jersey without the tinge of sadness all the way through the 2012 season, the last season his current deal runs through. After that, does it become as much of a memory as the Lee and Martinez jerseys currently are?

It gets to the greater point of how the separation of the name on the front of the jersey from the name on the back is much easier in one’s head than it is within one’s heart. As fans, we want to cheer for a particular player or group of players, not a faceless group of talent that merely dons our favorite laundry. From the standpoint of kids just learning to love the Indians and for people who want (no…who need) that familiar face to cheer for, the effects of the trades of 2009 are cataclysmic and force an examination of how emotionally attached one wants to become with this new crop of names and faces that we’re starting to see.

My wife argues that she shouldn’t start to like guys like Louie V.B. or Matt LaPorta (and it’s not because she says that she can’t say “LaPorta” without thinking “Porta-Potty”) because she doesn’t want that day to come when they stop wearing an Indians’ uniform and this whole charade continues in earnest.

While that line of thinking certainly has some merit – particularly given the still-gaping wound for fans that the departure of Lee and Martinez, among others, caused – it has become a reality of baseball in this day and age. Like it or not, these players are fungible assets whose value is tied more closely to production, salary, and contract status than it is to likeability, personality, or popularity among the masses.

It’s not a pleasant reality and it’s not one that I remember having to face as a young fan, particularly in the 1990’s. But it’s one that I’m going to have to come to grips with relatively soon, because the conversation with a son who will be 5-year-old son in 2012 who sleeps under the protection of “His Grady” every night is a conversation that I’m going to have to ready myself for.

Until that day though, maybe I’ll start telling my wife and son about this Weglarz kid…

A Lazy Sunday Bearing Arms

With most everyone’s attention turned to the Browns these days and polishing that trophy for “The GLC”, we’ll take a quick departure into a modified Lazy Sunday as the original intent of this piece has always been to link pertinent stories from the Sunday paper about the Indians. That has evolved though, as the pieces now don’t often lead to much insight or discussion unless you’re interested in reading Bud Shaw regrettably continue his evolution into Norman Chad Lite (no link provided) or read Paul Hoynes’ list of potential managerial candidates for 2010 (which is…um, not a good sign for The Atomic Wedgie), which feels a little premature even for someone like me who felt that Wedge should have been fired after the very series in Chicago that Hoynes mentions.

Usually, a piece by Terry Pluto garners some discussion but today’s about the 2010 rotation (among other topics) feels like old news here and Anthony Castrovince’s Inbox from the past week about attendance and payroll as well as Pat McManamon’s even-handed piece separating myth from reality in terms of payroll feels like a topic that deserves a little more attention than a cursory glance and minimal comment in a Lazy One.

Thus, let’s go a little off the board as an intro to what I think is a more important discussion with a piece forwarded along to me by sharp-eyed reader Richard Sheir on Chris Perez and Jess Todd, from a Cardinals’ perspective. The piece bemoans the loss of Chris Perez as a future closer (looking at the ridiculous numbers he’s put up as an Indian as proof) and wonders if Perez is flourishing because he’s out from under the direction of STL Pitching Coach Dave Duncan, the same direction that led many to be skeptical of the deal as Duncan and LaRussa are generally loathe to give up on any pitching talent, often coaxing more out of a particular arm (see Piniero, Joel) than anyone else.

While I can’t really speak for whether Perez’s success is a direct result of being out of St. Louis or a new approach, it did get me thinking about the return that the Indians received for a few months of Mark DeRosa and the effect (particularly when combined with the other acquisitions) that it could have on the Indians’ pitching staffs going forward. The thought would be that Chris Perez and Jesse Ray Todd already have found themselves in the Indians’ bullpen and while Todd has been inconsistent thus far, both are 23-year-old arms with a repertoire that seems to fit in the bullpen – what with Perez’s high-90’s fastball and wicked slider and JR Todd looking like Jensen Lewis with his herky-jerky motion, but with some actual movement on his pitches and some velocity, separating him from Lewis’ arsenal – and each has had success in the minors as a reliever.

Knowing what we’ve seen in the past few years regarding the construction of a bullpen, how does locking down 2 of the 7 (or 8 if you’re going with the Indians’ current curious strategy) for the next 5 years sound in terms of a return for DeRosa?

Seeing Perez perform over the last few weeks, does anyone else get the feeling that him finishing a game or two down the stretch may be a nice solution to the potential problem that Kerry Wood is still on pace to finish 52 games this season, with 39 finished in 122 games, with his 2011 option vesting if he closes 55 in a lost season during which he’s been ineffective?

Yes, bullpen arms are volatile, but it gets to the greater point if the Indians are able to FINALLY fill the bullpen out with young arms like Perez, Todd, Sipp, and Smith while hoping for a return to form in the short-term for Rafael Perez, Jen Lewis, and Wood. That greater point is that suddenly the Indians have the luxury of letting their OWN players project into the bullpen (with success never guaranteed) for 2010 and thus allowing some of the young arms to not be rushed through the system to serve as the premature cavalry.

This is important because with the haul of arms that the Indians received in their – what are we calling it now, rebuild…reload…re-stock…whatever, you know what I’m talking about – recent moves finally seems to have stocked multiple layers of the organization with pitching that is now able to develop as a group and perhaps accomplish what the first group of arms in “The Plan v.1.0” was never able to do, which would be to fill holes created through attrition, injury, Free Agency or otherwise at the MLB level and fill out the pitching staff with more than just organizational filler. Rather, the “layers” (you’ll notice I’m backing away from the “waves”) of arms are filled with potential impact arms. Sure, some of them are high-risk/high-reward, but after last year and this year, is that necessarily a bad thing?

To put it in tangible terms, let’s look at these “layers” below the MLB level to start 2010, and if you’re wondering…here’s my best guess at the pitching staff for 2010 as it stands today:
Jake Westbrook
Justin Masterson
Aaron Laffey
Fausto Carmona
Carlos Carrasco
Jeremy Sowers
Jensen Lewis
Rafael Perez
Jess Todd
Joe Smith
Tony Sipp
Chris Perez
Kerry Wood

Remember, I have Sowers as the long man necessary due to the fact that so many middle-of-the-game innings may be needed to be eaten due to Westbrook returning from his injury, Masterson still converting from the bullpen, Carmona still potentially wandering the desert, and the youth of Laffey and Carrasco – who I’m putting in there as the “winner” of the 5th rotation spot for 2010…yes, on August 23rd of 2009.

If you assume that the 12-man pitching staff looks something like that (and can we please log a formal petition that a veteran starter or veteran reliever is unnecessary in a 2010, during which contention is unlikely even though the organization won’t come out and say it), the addition of the arms in “The Great Sell-Off of 2009” to the players who legitimately are considered home-grown prospects that were already in the Tribe organization puts some meat on the bones of an organization in which impact pitching was a rarity. Regardless, here’s what I’m referring to as the “layers” of pitching in the pipeline below MLB with their ages for the 2010 season listed thusly:

1st Layer
Hector Rondon - 22
Dave Huff – 25
Jeanmar Gomez – 22
Zach Putnam – 22
Connor Graham – 24

2nd Layer
Scott Barnes – 22
Bryan Price – 23
Nick Hagadone – 24
Eric Berger – 24

3rd Layer
Jason Knapp – 19
Alex White - 21
Alexander Perez – 20
TJ House – 20

That’s a short list that doesn’t include guys like Scott Lewis, Chuck Lofgren, Steven Wright, Ryan Edell, Josh Tomlin, Frank Herrmann, or plenty others who all have some merit as possible MLB pitchers but truthfully fall more into the category of “depth” than they do “impact”. As for the names that did make it that fall closer to “impact”, I threw Alex White in there based on the fact that he wasn’t in the organization and will likely be in the Top 10 for the Tribe this year and guys like Jeanmar Gomez, Zach Putnam, Eric Berger, Alexander Perez and TJ House because of their success in 2009.

Why do I make such an assumption to only list those players?
Here’s how the pitchers (who all now find themselves in the Indians’ organization) were ranked at the beginning of the 2009 season by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus:
Carlos Carrasco - #1 Philadelphia Prospect entering 2009 (4-Star Prospect)
Chris Perez - #3 St. Louis Prospect entering 2009 (4-Star Prospect)
Jess Todd - #5 St. Louis Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Hector Rondon - #6 Cleveland Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Dave Huff - #7 Cleveland Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Nick Hagadone - #8 Boston Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Connor Graham - #8 Colorado Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Jason Knapp - #10 Philadelphia Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)
Bryan Price - #10 Boston Prospect entering 2009 (3-Star Prospect)

Looking at that list, the Indians went from having 2 pitching prospects with 3 or more stars to 9 and that doesn’t include guys like Justin Masterson or Laffey, who are not too far removed, age-wise, from some of the names on this list.

Yes, there are other guys in there that could be added to that “layer” list, but that’s not the point of this – the point is if you were to take out the multitude of arms that came into the organization via trades, it looks like a pretty bare-bones crew or one that may have one impact guy that was in the organization when 2009 started, but was filled out by organizational depth beyond that. Now, what the Indians possess is top-end pitching talent at a number of different levels where the onus of expectations isn’t placed on one particular player’s shoulder (or arm or finger), which is a sharp departure from years past when the Indians pitching prospects consisted of Atom Miller and…um, well the guys that we’ve seen the last two years who seem to fall under that “organizational depth” category instead of being a legitimate impact arm.

For instance, if you’ll remember, the Indians have 2 of the top 18 pitching prospects (according to this) in MLB in Rondon and Carrasco and unlike years past, if something were to (knocking firmly on wood) happen to one of them, the Indians wouldn’t find themselves staring at a vast chasm of talent to the next impact arm. Prior to the trades, who was the next legitimately exciting arm in the organization in terms of front-of-the-rotation stuff…Alexander Perez?

How do these arms ultimately shake out, in terms of who remains a starter and who projects as a reliever?
We’re not going to know that answer for a while, but the presence of some legitimately talented power arms that already figure into the 2010 pitching staff (like Perez and Todd) allow for a longer amount of time for discernment. The importance of these “layers” though is also that the idea that the Indians simply cannot have too many potential impact arms may have finally found a foothold. That importance comes into play when you realize that not all of these guys are going to pan out…they’re just not. Whether one of them is done in by an injury or difficulty adjusting to a new level or a new role, all of these names look great on paper as arms to dream on, but the idea becomes if the Indians can get one or maybe two of the names in each of these “layers” to legitimately contribute, it becomes a successful development of arms.

If you believe that “There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect” or TINSTAAPP, because too many things go wrong between Point A (which could be wild success in AA as a 21-year-old) and Point B (which would ultimately be production in MLB), you see that the supplementation of the top arms in the Indians’ system almost takes an approach that attempts to take the attrition rate out of the equation by lining up that many more arms.

Again, think back to the projection for Atom Miller to come in and step in as a front-of-the-rotation starter then as a potential closer. Even after Miller’s injuries started, he remained the Indians’ top pitching prospect because the difference between his potential and every other pitcher’s was so vast that Miller (injuries considered) represented the true impact arm while the rest of the guys looked like middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation fodder or maybe middle relievers. Now, think about what we’re looking at with the arms that came up with Miller and how they’re performing in MLB…as middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation fodder or maybe middle relievers.

Now, what the Indians have attempted to do is line up not only a Miller-type impact arm in each of these layers (like Hagadone and Knapp in the lower layers), but also to make sure that the pieces that figure to mature and project with them simply aren’t guys who throw in the low-90’s and get by on “control” and “command”, instead stocking up on guys like Bryan Price and Alex White, whose eventual role may not yet be determined, but whose floor as a potential late-inning option represents a higher floor than the players we watched come up with Miller.

After you get past that notion of the “layers”, the question becomes how quickly these arms all move in the organization as the position players are all but set going forward if you consider that 3B, 1B, and LF look to be the only question marks come 2010 (assuming Marson is the de-facto catcher in 2010 until Santana arrives) and some combination of Peralta, LaPorta, and Marte can hold down those positions until Brantley is ready to take over LF and The Chizzle is ready to take over 3B.

How quickly these arms should move brings up an interesting piece brought to my attention by Jay Levin at Let’s Go Tribe that came from the noted Nate Silver from the Spring of 2007, taking a look at the development of young pitchers and how prudent it is to continue the “development” of true high-impact arms:
…Although there are a few categories of pitching prospects — particularly guys with good stuff, high strikeout rates and highish walk rates (think Homer Bailey) — that tend to improve more often than not, in general there is no systematic pattern of improvement after the age of 21 or so. Sometimes guys get better, of course, and sometimes they do so in a hurry — but you can’t take a young pitcher in a vacuum and expect him to improve the same way that you can for a hitting prospect. Mark Rogers (to pick on some low-hanging fruit) will probably never get his command sorted out, Yusemiro Petit will never add enough ticks to his fastball to become a useful major league starter, Gavin Floyd will never learn how to keep the ball down, and so forth. All of these things are possible — but they’re not very likely.

The flip side, as Gary also alludes to, is that young pitchers often take less time to become dominant big league performers. Pitching, somewhat contrary to the mad genius reputation of pitchers like Greg Maddux, is more of a purely physical skill and less of a learned behavior than hitting is. Pitchers like Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels — these guys weren’t just holding their own last year, they were among the very best pitchers in baseball. Someone like Hamels — or Tim Lincecum or Philip Hughes — might very well be as effective today as he’s ever going to be, before he’s had a chance for injuries and mileage to accumulate. Keeping those guys down on the farm is not conservative — it’s a downright irresponsible way to run a ballclub.

It’s a fascinating way to look at the handling of young arms and while I’m not suggesting that the next Tim Licnecum or Cole Hamels is in the Indians’ organization, you have to wonder if the kid gloves are going to come off with these arms like Hagadone and Knapp, particularly given the fact that Atom Miller (who was likely ready to contribute to the parent club in 2006 or at least in 2007 based on his talent) has yet to pitch in MLB.

The arms (whether they be “layers” or “waves” or whatever) look to be in the Indians’ organization to complement the position players in place and just below the surface. How closely the two groups adjust and mature as essential pieces of the team will likely determine whether The Plan v.2.0 becomes a success or Shapiro’s Last Stand.