Forward Thinking – Rounding out the Offense

With the off-season about to officially start, let’s resume where we left off…oh, about three weeks ago and get back to looking at the Indians’ roster as it is currently constructed and what those pieces and parts might look like for 2010. After the initial trip around the infield as Part I of the look forward, let’s cast our gaze past the dirt of the infield to the green grass of the outfield and to the rest of the offense.

Whereas the infield alignment looks mildly settled and before getting into the muddy waters associated with the pitching staff, let’s take a look at what is inarguably the strongest portion of the team (the outfield) as well as taking on the ongoing mystery revolving around The Artist Formerly Known as Pronk.

Left Field
The revolving door that has been LF for the Indians (Cordova, Lawton, Crisp, Dellichaels, Francisco…and that’s avoiding the likes of Magruder, Wil Cordero, Broussard and your boy Garko, the erstwhile LF) since the “halcyon” days of Dave Justice and Richie Sexson has remained a now decade-long issue for the Indians with none of the parenthetical principals previously listed ever distinguishing himself long enough to be considered a long-term answer. Sure, Lawton was serviceable (if overpaid) and Coco had some good years in the mid-2000s, but Coco’s OPS since leaving Cleveland is .719 (85 OPS+), so even he can’t legitimately be considered a potential long-term answer for the riddle that has plagued LF at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario since the late 1990s.

Into that fray steps Mike Brantley, a 22-year-old whose OPS+ of 85 in his brief stint with the Tribe in 2009 matches the number put up by Crisp in the last four years. Sample size difference to be sure (Crisp – 1,667 plate appearance; Brantley – 121 plate appearances), but Brantley’s performance in Cleveland (which doesn’t look that much different than what his former fellow Brewers’ farmhand Alcides Escobar did as a 22-year-old in a comparable amount of AB this year) gives the first glimmer of hope in a long, long time that the quandary of LF may finally be solved.

Truthfully, as late as August in 2009, I was ready to let Brantley start the 2010 season in Columbus. While subscribing to the idea that Brantley didn’t look like he was ready for everyday MLB action (his OPS in Columbus was .711), I believed that the 2010 season could start with LaPorta in LF and Marte or Brown or a FA at 1B, with Brantley at the ready to come up to MLB at some point in 2010, a little more seasoned and a little more ready for MLB pitching.

But, not even getting into the fear that Matt LaBomba may not be able to start the season on the roster as he rehabs his injuries, if Brantley is going to be the LF of the Future, maybe it’s time to make the Future and the Present meet. That is, if Brantley’s going to be the LF on the team when it is supposed to hit this next window of opportunity and since no other more compelling options are available (put that hand down, Trevor), perhaps it’s time to do in LF what the Indians have been so reticent to do in recent years. This off-season might be the right time to tell Mike Brantley that he’s the starting LF for 2010 and give him every opportunity (along with a long leash) to prove himself, with the comfort and familiarity of knowing that he’s going to be in the lineup every single day.

But wait, isn’t this from the same guy that said that Carl Santana should start the 2010 season in AAA because the Indians aren’t really playing for anything in 2010 and managing the service clock of their top prospects should be considered?

Yeah, that was me…but the fundamental difference between Santana and Brantley is that Mike Brantley finished nearly a full season in AAA in 2009 after a full year in AA in 2008 and has the taste of from his late-season call-up to MLB to fall back on. Asking him to REMAIN in MLB after two full seasons in AAA and AA is a completely different animal than Santana making the jump from AA to MLB with no stops in between, particularly for a catcher. That’s not to dismiss Santana as a 2010 option, only to differentiate the circumstances surrounding the two of them when the team leaves Goodyear next April.

Whereas Santana’s promise is unquestioned, he still has yet to play at any level above AA and Brantley’s cup of coffee in MLB last year confirmed what had been said about him as a prospect. The on-base skills apparent in his MiLB numbers (career MiLB OBP of .387) were on display in his 121 plate appearances for the Indians in 2009, boasting a respectable .358 OBP while manning LF. The power certainly wasn’t there (.348 SLG) in Cleveland, though it never really has been (career .369 MiLB SLG) and for a player like Brantley, whose game is getting on base and utilizing his speed, the power is secondary, particularly when you consider his age and his bat-to-ball ability.

Besides the lack of power, one aspect of Brantley’s game that did create some concern and (unlike the lack of pop, which was known) flew in the face of what he had done in MiLB was the fact that Brantley posted 19 K to 8 BB in 121 plate appearances for the Tribe after actually walking more than he struck out in the Minors (190 MiLB K to 258 MiLB BB). Again a small sample size applies, but more importantly, this doesn’t look to be too much different than what Brantley has done throughout his Minor League career during his first exposure to a new level

Going right down his Minor League numbers, you can see that Brantley’s first month or two at a new level often resulted in more strikeouts than walks, but that the numbers went decidedly in the other direction as the season went on and as adjustments to a new level of pitching were likely made:
2009 – Columbus (AAA)
April – 14 K, 7 BB in 69 AB
May through August – 34 K, 52 BB in 388 AB

His entire 2008 season was spent in AA Huntsville (in the Brewers’ organization) where he notched 50 BB to his 27 K, but when Brantley was first promoted from Single-A to AA in June of 2007, the adjustment period of that first month or so is again apparent:
2007 – Huntsville (AA)
June – 10 K, 8 BB in 59 AB
July through September – 18 K, 27 BB in 156 AB

Even in 2006, when he had his first taste of Single-A ball, the trend can be seen again:
2006 – West Virginia (A)
April – 8 K, 5 BB in 56 AB
May through September – 43 K, 57 BB in 307 AB

While this doesn’t represent a major concern, it will be interesting to see how Brantley makes his adjustments to MLB, considering that the level of pitching is unmatched and is light years ahead of anything he’s previously seen. That adjustment period (which may or may not come) is another reason that Brantley should be considered the LF from Day 1 of 2010. He’s experienced MLB for the first time and should now be given every opportunity to adjust to it, in light of no other viable alternatives (Crowe…why is your hand still up) and to see if he can finally stop the revolving door that LF has been from spinning.

Center Field
In light of all of this overly exhaustive analysis, let me just sum up the outlook for 2010 at this position with three words – get healthy, Grady…please.
OK, maybe four words.

Seriously though, what can reasonably be expected of Sizemore?
According to Terry Pluto, he’s “nearly 100 percent recovered following elbow and hernia surgery”, putting to rest the notion that the Indians were doing long-term damage to their very own Vinnie Chase (who certainly doesn’t look like recovering from the injuries have caused him to have any less fun) as he played through pain down the stretch in 2009.

But even if his healthy social calendar remains filled and his arm and g-g-g-groin injury (sorry, I have to link that as often as possible) are now close to 100%, what can be expected of Grady?

Before getting into that, let’s not forget what Sizemore accomplished last year despite his injuries as he ended up ranked 5th in AL in OPS among CF (behind Torii Hunter, Marlon Byrd, Denard Span, and Adam Jones) with the injuries, this after finishing in the top 2 among all CF in ALL OF MLB in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Even in 2007 (his down year), he was 5th in MLB in OPS among CF, so 2009 certainly represented a disappointment.

Do those rankings in OPS represent an elite CF?
Absolutely, but what’s disappointing about Grady’s 2009 season is that it looked to be a potentially defining year of his career in terms of whether he stayed on the steady path he was on or whether he finally experienced the break-out season that many have predicted for him. Instead, it remained mired in mediocrity (because of the injuries) and broke up this little spell of consistent production that he’s compiled since becoming the everyday CF:
2005 – 123 OPS+
2006 – 132 OPS+
2007 – 122 OPS+
2008 – 128 OPS+

2009 was supposed to answer whether those numbers represented what Grady was and what he figures to be or whether he still was on that “Duke Snider/Barry Bonds path”, where a jump in production is seen as a player matures into his late 20’s. Certainly the disappointment of 2009 remains just that, but how he comes out in 2010 (his age-27 season) will start to answer some questions as to whether Grady belongs among the elite in all of MLB, regardless of position, or just among the elite CF in MLB. Being “just among the elite CF in MLB” is nothing to sneeze at, but the potential for Sizemore to become more than what we’ve seen has certainly always seemed to be there and 2010 should be his opportunity to attain that potential.

On a team in which he’s one of the veterans and one of the “known” quantities, the leadership reins that Grady seemed ready to take in the second half of 2008 needs to found once more.

Right Field
In 2008, SS Choo finished 5th in the AL in OPS (at .946) among players with 350 AB or more. This year, using the same criteria (350 AB or more) he finished 16th in the AL in OPS by finishing with an OPS of .883.
That’s 5th and 16th in the AL in consecutive years in OPS.

Want to know how many players ranked in the Top 20 for each of the last two years using that 350 AB mark as the minimum in the AL in terms of OPS?
Eight – Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, JD Drew, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Justin Morneau, and Big League Choo.

In a season of disappointment, The BLC proved that his 2008 season was no fluke and his consistency in 2009 all but guarantees that he’ll be patrolling RF for the Indians for 2010 and likely beyond as the likelihood of the Indians buying up some of his arbitration years (2011, 2012 and 2013) increased as the season wound down.

Designated Hitter
Rather than intoning some variation of “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner” and making jokes about albatrosses around necks, let’s focus instead on Travis Hafner and what he legitimately figures to bring to the batter’s box in 2010. Of course, the first question relevant to that topic is not what he figures to bring to the batter’s box, but instead how often he figures to be in the actual batter’s box in 2010.

After the cloak-and-dagger affair regarding Hafner’s injuries and what exactly the issue was/is (and if anyone can get a definitive answer on this, I’m all ears), the rhetoric from the offices at Carnegie and Ontario that Hafner is now a year-and-a-half removed from his surgery and that he is getting healthier sound eerily similar to what we’ve heard for about two years now. Pardon us if we’ve grown a little tired of waiting for Pronk to re-appear, but from the time that Hafner came back from a stint on the DL on June 5th of 2009, he posted a pedestrian line of .273 BA / .352 OBP / .455 SLG / .806 OPS…but that’s not the most disconcerting part about those 77 games that he played to finish the season. No, that would fall to the fact that he started in 6 consecutive games twice from the beginning of June on, once in mid-July and once in mid-August. Outside of those two 6-game stretches, Hafner did not appear in the lineup on an everyday basis, despite the fact that his physical exertion was confined to simply swinging.

How often will Hafner play this year…75% of the games, 80%?
Does anyone even want to venture a guess?

More importantly, in that percentage of games that Hafner doesn’t figure to play in because of rest needed or for whatever reason, who figures in for those at-bats at DH?

Would the Indians be content to simply let everyday players take days at DH, opening spots in the lineup for what would figure to be the bench (Crowe, Marte, Donald, Toregas, Gimenez, etc.) ostensibly taking those AB?

With the additional news that LaPorta will be out until 4 to 6 months (which means February at the earliest, April at the latest and Opening Day 2010 is April 5th…ahem), is it more feasible that the Indians go out and get that 1B/DH type to fill in at 1B and spell Hafner when he needs a break?

I suppose the Indians could find some AB for the guys like Marte or Jordan Brown, who figure in (somehow) as 1B/DH/etc. options, but would the Indians consider signing a veteran bat (preferably RH) to add to the mix?

The pickings are undeniably slim, and looking at this list, I can’t say that a name really jumps out as even a reclamation project who could sit on the bench and wait for random AB…Matt Stairs, anyone? Eric Hinske? Kevin Millar?

Seeing as how there’s no chance that signing one of those guys is the best use of available assets or playing time, we’re back to the idea that the Indians have to hope that Hafner stays relatively healthy and effective enough while healthy (he did have a .910 OPS when he went on the DL at the end of April this past year) that he doesn’t become a middle-of-the-order “presence” who weighs down the lineup instead of anchoring it. If Hafner still needs his rest, the AB probably go to Marte or Crowe or Jordan Brown (assuming any or all of them are on the 2010 roster), giving the starters a day to DH.

If Hafner is “healthy” and continues to post an OPS around .800?
Wake me up at the end of the 2012 season so I can contribute a portion of the $2.75M necessary to buy out his 2013 option.

Bench
From the likes of Wyatt Toregas (until Santana arrives), Jason Donald (assuming he’s not the starting 2B), Chris Gimenez (still having value…just not as anything close to an everyday player), Andy Marte (still RH and still cheap), Jordan Brown (although a LH bat on a team that is flush with them may preclude his presence on the roster) and Trevor Crowe (who needs to show that his speed and defense are for real as a 4th OF), the Indians have the makings of a potentially strong, if inexperienced bench that should fill out the roster for the league minimum. None of the players figure to legitimately force their way into plans (except Donald), but most of these players have played the part-time role in MLB already and the success of the 2010 season certainly doesn’t hinge on any of their performances.
__________

The uncertainty around DH and the “wet behind the ears” look of the bench shouldn’t diminish the fact that the Indians, led by their outfielders’ continued maturation, should be a good offensive club in 2010. It will not always be smooth sailing as young players adapt to MLB (like Brantley) or attempt to re-capture former success (like Sizemore and Hafner), but the combined efforts of the offensive pieces in place should put the Indians in position to win a number of games in 2010.

Whether the 2010 pitching can keep them in that position to win games is an entirely different story…

Timing Up a Lazy Sunday

After hitting two kids’ Halloween parties in the afternoon, then traipsing around West Park last night with the only 2-year-old in a Santa costume (yes, the DiaperTribe was dead-set on that costume selection since Labor Day), followed by the lamentations associated with the fact that the aforementioned 2-year-old does not grasp the concept of the “extra hour of sleep” that everyone looks forward to when the clock “falls back”, let’s get loose on a Lazy Sunday before needing that “extra hour of sleep” catches up with a vengeance, probably around 1 PM or so today…nothing else going on then, right?

With nothing really happening on The Reservation (unless you count the not so surprising news that Torey Lovullo wants to be a MLB coach instead of going back to Columbus, that somebody named Tim Tolman, or maybe Red Forman, could be on the coaching staff, and some various roster housecleaning issues), let’s go back to the events of Wednesday night, when CP Lee basically acted like he was pitching against the Royals on a random weekday night in May (I mean, did you see this…he’s just toying with them) while all of the North Coast cried into their Dortmunders that were meant to dull the pain.

But the pain was there, assisted by the FOX graphic showing the 2009 post-season records for both Lee and Sabathia accompanied by pictures of each still donning Chief Wahoo, with the title “You Still Have LeBron” delivering the final knockout punch to an unwitting city that once again was forced to come to grips with their second-class status.

It seemed that everyone had an opinion on the match-up between CC and CP and most of them were painful to read and difficult to ignore, but the ones of note (not surprisingly) that took the “big-picture” view, instead of just taking potshots at Cleveland, came from some natives of the North Coast, well-versed in the pain of being a fan of Cleveland sports. To that end, and on that notion of “second-class status”, my fellow South Euclid native Joe Posnanski offers a tremendous piece on the Game 1 match-up of Lee and Sabathia from the perspective of the disparity in MLB:
This is the hard reality of the World Series. It is not a celebration for everyone. Year after year, it is also a time for fans of losing teams to see their old stars, and remember the promise, and think about what might have been, had ownership been a little wiser and had a little more money to work with.
--snip--
The Indians never really got to cash in on having developed two of the best left-handed starters in baseball. Baseball is funny that way: For teams without big payrolls the key is not just developing good players: The timing is also crucial. In the last eight years or so, the Indians have had young versions of Sabathia, Lee, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp, Fausto Carmona ... all of whom at one point or another looked like future stars.

Some became stars, some did not, but the Indians have an overall losing record over those eight seasons and on Wednesday night Indians fans are left with their noses pressed against the restaurant front window, left standing in the rain while their old heroes Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia try to set the tone for this World Series.

The bolded sentence was done by me and is perhaps the most troubling part of the whole issue at hand. But before getting to that, and allowing the “noses pressed against the restaurant front window” analogy presented by Posnanski to sink in, here’s another terrific piece by Jay Levin at Let’s Go Tribe (posting at Yahoo) analyzing the situation in great detail and with tremendous insight, casting an eye towards the situation in Cleveland, how it relates to MLB in general…and that issue of “timing”:
As a tandem, that's all Indians fans ever got out of Sabathia and Lee — one nice season in 2005, and 10 dazzling but poorly timed weeks in 2008. As individuals, each guy delivered a Cy Young season, plus a couple other really good seasons. Sabathia never delivered anything in the posteason, however, and Lee never even got there. Should we blame the pitchers for not being at their best when we needed them most? Should we blame the team for not better capitalizing on their stellar seasons when they happened?

While that “timing” thing is still a major factor (and it’s the one that I addressed to a lesser degree in the context of the 2008 season specifically), you can’t ignore the disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” in MLB, despite the fact that the GM of the Indians didn’t take the opportunity of the publicity created by the situation to point out that different teams in MLB are playing on different fields in a piece from Bill Madden of the Daily News:
“I just can’t dwell on what might have been,” Shapiro said by phone from Cleveland. “It is what it is. I’ve known one of those guys (Sabathia) since he was 18 years old, when we signed him, and the other one (Lee) since he was in Double-A ball, and I care deeply about both of them as people. That’s what this game is really all about. The people. I just know we weren’t going to be able to re-sign CC and I’m better off with LaPorta and Brantley than I would have been with just draft picks for him. It was the same with Cliff. Keeping those guys was never going to be an option and still be able to have a competitive club around them with our resources.”

Of course, Shapiro’s not going to say that the Indians developed a plan to build a team around their tremendous starting pitching (on display for other teams on Wednesday night) and that their efforts to attain a World Series championship within their “window” of 2005 to 2009 fell short due to a variety of factors, some self-inflicted, some injury-related, and some created by the economic climate of MLB…but maybe he should have.

Perhaps it would have come off as sour grapes or would have opened himself up for second-guessing his own decisions instead of focusing on the issue at hand. But as reader Aaron Newman astutely asked, “Why is the leader of an alleged small market team not taking the opportunity to directly point out the inequalities of the MLB salary structure on a national basis while he has a temporary national platform. Why aren’t Shapiro and Paul Dolan saying to the national media that it is wrong and unfair that the MLB economic structure forced the Indians to part with two Cy Young award winners?”

Regardless of whether we should have, the conjecture that Clifton Phifer Lee could become the 5th pitcher in MLB history to sign a deal worth more than $100M at the age of 31 (assuming the Phillies rip up his 2010 option and give him a new deal this off-season), not long after Carsten Charles signed the richest deal ever given to a pitcher, in terms of overall dollars as well as annual salary, is it any wonder why Indians’ fans are lamenting the current situation, wondering why nobody seems to be taking up the cause of the “little guy”?

Two pitchers that made their MLB debut for Cleveland are about to make up 1/3 of the pitchers in MLB history to have ever signed for $100M and Indians’ fans are left to look at the “layers” of arms now in place beneath the parent club and hope that some of those arms become effective before the impact hitters (which looks to be in place or at least close) creep closer and closer to not being Indians anymore.

And…coming full circle now…THERE’S the timing thing again, as the Indians cannot change the current economic structure or what’s been done to date at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario to put them in their current situation. Nor can they change too drastically the hand of cards they currently hold, so they need to somehow make sure that the window of opportunity that may be ahead of them doesn’t close prematurely as it did in July of 2008. Not unlike most of MLB, the Indians need to hope that the pitching in place arrives with the hitting or else the vicious cycle starts all over again, with the pain and the regrets washing over the North Coast.

After years of waiting for the arrival of a “homegrown” ace, the Indians have developed three (remember Colon?) whose time in Cleveland overlapped for the better part of a decade, only to see them leave Cleveland without bringing a World Series trophy to the North Coast during their stay. Now not unlike most MLB teams, the Indians find themselves hoping that from among a group of arms that look to be slated to fill out the 2010 rotation, many of whom look to be middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation arms (not that those aren’t needed as well), there is one or two of these young players that emerges to become the top-of-the-rotation starter that seems to be lacking.

Masterson, Rondon, Huff, Carrasco, Laffey, Hagadone…
Maybe (actually that’s a big MAYBE) one or two of them takes that step to the next level, but if they do…when?

When do any of those young arms legitimately project as front-of-the-rotation starters, after adjusting to MLB and developing the comfort level that it took Sabathia a solid six seasons to figure out to legitimately be called an “aCCe”? It took Cliff Lee five years and one demotion to the minors to hit this current stride, so how long can this team wait for its youngsters to do the same, in light of the current economic conditions and the fact that the clock is already ticking on players like Sizemore and Choo (who Rob Neyer asserts is not much less valuable than Ryan Howard), who are inching closer to Free Agency or the trades from Cleveland that precede it?

If we’re talking in terms of “hope” that some of these arms do pan out, it’s irresponsible not to couple that with the “fear” that they won’t and that the window that the Indians seem to be looking at, with solid offense and defense and (gulp) maybe even a bullpen with power arms, is going to be undermined by the growing pains of a young starting staff. Obviously, the Indians realize this fact as Shapiro states in the Daily News piece linked above that “for us next year, starting pitching will tell the tale.” And while you could probably replace “next year” with “the next few years”, the development of the internal arms and the reaction of the Front Office to that development is going to determine the immediate future of the Indians.

Don’t take this to mean that the Indians should go out and sign John Lackey or look for another Carl Pavano for next year to “take that shot” in 2010 as the maturation of these pitchers and answering questions about the in-house options is probably the most important aspect of 2010 in terms of a sustained run of contention past 2010. Allowing a new coaching staff and a couple “fresh sets of eyes” sufficient time to deal with the pieces already in place and make judgments and adjustments likely preclude anything major from being done immediately, but the understatement of the year that “starting pitching will tell the tale” gets to the reality of the situation the Indians face and will continue to face.

That situation is the current economic climate that the Indians (and most of MLB teams) need to attempt to formulate that “perfect storm” once again necessary for small market teams to contend. Their pitching needs to mature and excel as their position players are still mid-stride in their development to keep the principals (all while avoiding injuries) in place for a period of time where contention (not only in the Central, but all of MLB) allows them to make that run (or runs) until it all gets torn down again and the building blocks go in place again. If the maturation of the pitchers ends up on a different arrival time than the peak of the position players, it’s likely that we’ll be looking at the offensive players leaving as the pitchers finally are ready to compete in MLB, just like we just saw the pitchers leave as the position players are ready to emerge.

While we wait for answers as to whether the pitching in place can arrive and succeed while the Indians’ offensive talent remains in Cleveland won’t be known for a good amount of time. Until those answers arrive however, all Indians’ fans can do is watch their two former aces duel it under the bright lights of the World Series, complain about the variety of factors that led to that Fall Classic match-up and hope that brighter days are coming, while attempting to push the fear that brighter days aren’t coming out of their minds.

What Should Have Been

The nightmare is upon us as CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees in Game 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, boasting their own former Cy Young Award winner in Clifton Phifer Lee. The pain of seeing these two former teammates battle each other will come soon enough, but the fact that these two ex-Tribesman front rotations for participants in the World Series is enough to wonder what happened to the Indians’ team that still boasted both of them on their roster.

Two short years ago, the Indians were one game away from the World Series and while the turning point came in Game 5 of the ALCS, one can’t help but wonder today what might have been had the 2007 ALCS hadn’t ended differently. It’s not a question that is reserved for just Tribe fans this week as Sabathia admitted last week to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that “I still can’t believe what happened… I mean, we just have to win one more game. Just one game. And we would not have only gone to the World Series, but I'm sure we would have won it. I still think about that.”

“What happened” was what happened throughout the 2007 post-season as CC was not able to defeat the Red Sox that night as his 2007 post-season would finish on that October night with a 1-2 record brought about by a 8.80 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP in 3 starts.
But that (as well as mentioning that CP Lee’s 2007 post season record doesn’t exist as it’s neither here nor there) gets away from the crux of the issue at hand.

That issue is that it can be argued that the loss to the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS should not have represented the end of the line for the assembled talent as the pieces and parts that made the run down the stretch in 2007 and made the playoff push at the end of the season was nearly identical to the team that would break camp to start the 2008 season. The performance of that team in 2008 is perhaps what should be examined at length (instead of “just one game”, as important as that game was with everything out there for the Indians to go to the World Series) and it goes back to another CC quote in terms of the 2008 club as he told Nightengale in the aforementioned piece that “with the young guys we had, I was sure we’d be back. I really thought we’d be together for a long time. But once we got off to a slow start, things changed so quickly. Now, the only guy really left is (center fielder) Grady (Sizemore). It’s weird.”

“Weird” is not the word that most Indians’ fans would use to describe the sequence of events for the organization from Game 5 in the 2007 ALCS to where the Indians sit today, with a new manager and a nearly completely different set of players. There are other choice words that could probably better articulate how Tribe fans feel about the shocking slide into rebuilding, but when asked what he would tell fans in Cleveland about the Game 1 match-up, pitting Sabathia and Lee, CC just flashed that mega-watt smile that we all keep reading about and said…wait for it…”I don't know what to tell them. It's not our fault.”

While we can sit and debate whether the fall-off was tied directly to the disappointment of the starting pitching in Game 5 of the ALCS, it’s brings up the pertinent question as we sit and wait for the FOX coverage of Game 1 of this World Series to bring about ulcers and groans across the North Coast.
That question of course is - whose fault is it?

Whose fault is it that the promise the shone so brightly at the beginning of 2008 has been reduced to barely a flicker, where contention in 2010 seems unlikely and contention beyond that is dependent upon too many variables to count?

If you’ll remember, the 2008 season started with essentially the same team that finished the 2007 season in a flurry of success:
Lineup
Victor Martinez
Ryan Garko
Asdrubal Cabrera
Jhonny Peralta
Casey Blake
Franklin Gutierrez
Grady Sizemore
Jason Michaels
Travis Hafner

Starting Rotation
CC Sabathia
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Jake Westbrook
Paul Byrd

Back-End of Bullpen
Joe Borowski
Rafael Betancourt
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis

Joe Borowski…Jason Michaels…I know, blame it on those guys.
But with that assembled group of players, THAT team had a record of 37-51 on July 7th, a solid 14 games out of 1st place, a game and a half behind the Royals in the AL Central further than halfway into the season. Again, that would be the team WITH CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, two pitchers who would end the season among the top four starters in terms of ERA+, healthy and starting 40% of the games over an 88-game stretch.

You want a period of time that killed this organizational window of winning, there it is – an 88-game stretch with both Sabathia (fresh off a 2007 Cy Young season) and Lee (working on a 2008 Cy Young season) going two times every turn through the rotation. As easy as it would be to say that the one game in October of 2007 killed the Indians, as they were constructed, a more complete explanation comes over that set of games that comprised over a little over half of the next season.

CC says that the state the Indians find themselves in and the fact that the two starting pitchers for Game 1 of the 2009 World Series is not “their fault” and it’s hard to argue that when you look at the numbers of Sabathia and Lee when CC was traded to Milwaukee on July 7th of 2008:
CC Sabathia – 6-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts
Cliff Lee – 11-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 17 starts

The team was designed to be built on starting pitching and it was, if you remember the 44 1/3 scoreless inning streak by the strong rotation (which by that time included an effective Aaron Laffey), so what went so horribly and irreparably wrong in those 88 games that forced the Indians to make a decision on Sabathia, beginning the quick organizational descent?

Obviously, some injuries to the rotation played a role (with Carmona and Westbrook both ailing that year), but the 2008 Indians boasted two of the best pitchers in MLB in the first half and still could not climb out of the cellar in a very weak AL Central in 2008.
So really, what went wrong?

It was a topic that was delved into back after the CC trade in 2008 in the “Things Fall Apart” series with some blame being placed on the bullpen, and specifically the struggles of Betancourt, Perez, and Lewis – all thought to be legitimate options when (not if) Borowski ran out of gas. Additionally, some blame was placed on the offense’s inability to make up for the lost offensive output brought about by injuries to Victor and Hafner, most notably in terms of the regressions of Gutierrez, Cabrera, and Garko as they struggled to fill the offensive void. Finally, blame was placed on the Indians’ strategy to stand pat in the off-season leading up to the 2008 season, as the Front Office’s decision to remain content and to rest on the success of the 2007 season and assume that player development would progress without hiccups and the overall success of the team would continue.

Wherever the final blame is placed (and it could certainly be spread around pretty evenly), the notion that the Indians could have made some changes to start the season – like waiting for the still-injured Choo to take over for Michaels (or Francisco), moving Grady to LF and Gutierrez to CF…or moving Blake to 1B, Peralta to 3B, Cabrera to SS, and finding a 2B, or even starting the season with Blake in LF, Marte at 3B and with the rest of the alignment in place – does not hide the fact that the past cannot be changed.

Perhaps some blame can be placed on the current structure in MLB that forces teams like the Indians to confront reality before they want to and make decisions based on their future, sometimes at the expense of the present. As Casey Blake stated in the Nightengale piece, "they had to make a decision…either stick with this group or start over again. Just one game changed the direction of that organization.”

While his presumption that “one game changed the direction of that organization” may be little dramatic, there’s no question that the direction of the organization was permanently changed by the time that Blake was moved to the Dodgers. Between Game 5 of the ALCS in 2007 and Casey going to Hollywood, the Indians needed to face their reality in terms of their situation in – they knew CC was leaving at the end of the 2008 season for the most money and the Indians had to decide what to do with him in terms of the realistic expectations for their future.

Should the Indians have “stuck with that group”, despite the fact that the team was 14 games under .500 in the month of June, with the likelihood of making the playoffs being slim and none?

Regardless of that answer, all that’s left is the regret and bitterness towards that three-month stretch that slammed shut the Indians’ window of contention, as the 2009 team followed the path laid out by the first three months of the 2008 team and the franchise was irreparably changed. As the frustration of knowing that the players that made up that 2008 team were unquestionably talented, but simply did not win, descends like a gray cloud on Wednesday night when the first pitch is thrown, realize that the Indians’ fortunes did not change in Game 5 of the ALCS on that October night…but it was certainly the beginning of the end.

Time for Some Acta

The managerial game of musical chairs found one man standing as Manny Acta, impressive in front of the cameras in Cleveland and lauded by baseball men for his knowledge and passion of the game despite his difficulties in the situation in Washington, has been named the Indians’ new skipper in a surprising turn of events (in terms of timeframe) that ended with Sunday’s announcement.

While the Indians may not have planned on naming Manny Acta as their new manager just yet, news that the Astros offered Acta a two-year deal with an option for a third year forced the Indians to spring into action to trump Houston’s offer to land Acta in Cleveland. His three-year deal with an option for a fourth with the Tribe put away any idea that Houston was his preferred landing spot (or “dream job”), regardless of ancillaries involved, because he had grown up in the Astros’ organization.

The timeframe seemingly forced upon the Indians essentially removed Don Mattingly from consideration (if everything written about him in the past two weeks as the heir apparent in LA didn’t already) and one would have to think that Bobby Valentine either confessed a lack of interest, or such a lack of interest was picked up from his press conference, that his candidacy was no longer considered serious.

Acta brings an interesting resume to Cleveland with his strengths as a bilingual communicator known for developing young players being balanced against his unquestionably poor record in the nation’s capital (one that got worse in each of his 2 ½ seasons) and the fact that the Nationals improved after he was fired at the All-Star break of the 2009 season.

He brings a new energy to a team in need of it and, more importantly, a fresh perspective as he comes from outside the status quo of the Indians’ uniformly uniform organization. While he subscribes to some of the same basic philosophies as the Front Office, the application of those philosophies on the specific set of players he’s been hired to manage will ultimately determine if his record in Washington was an aberration or the start of a pattern.

Truthfully, like any coaching hire, nobody really knows what to expect as Acta was unquestionably in control of his press conference with the assembled media and said all of the right things about all of the right people at all of the right times. How he goes about achieving all of those things – like fixing Fausto and getting some consistency out of Peralta – is where his baseball acumen will have to show, and quickly.

Getting a read on him and making a snap judgment about whether he’s the right man for the job borders on folly, but some clues about him and his strategies should begin to emerge with the first order of business – naming a coaching staff. The construction of the staff (according to the Front Office when this process started) is up to the newly named manager, and Acta has made it clear that he would have no problem bringing along coaches that are familiar (and successful) with the current batch of Indians – a category that the AAA troika of Columbus manager Torey Lovullo, Columbus hitting coach Jon Nunnally, and Columbus pitching coach Scott Radinsky all fall under.

Whether any or all of them eventually comprise any part of his coaching staff remains to be seen as it’s a certainty that he’ll look to bring in coaches he’s familiar with and with whom he’s coached in the past. Just taking a look at the coaches that surrounded him in Washington brings forth names from his 2006 hiring like Rick Aponte, Pat Corrales (yes, Pat Corrales for those of you DYING for a former Tribe manager to be in the dugout), Jerry Morales, Mitchell Page, Tim Tolman, and Randy St. Claire. Some of those names are still gainfully employed in Washington, at least until a new manager is named, but it puts forth the idea that some of the coaching hires (as important as they are) may be names that are simply names to most Tribe fans. Regardless of this fact, the proper mix of coaches familiar with the youngsters on the Indians and those that Acta is comfortable with that can lend a new perspective on players, young and old, is what Acta needs to achieve.

How he attempts to put together a coaching staff as the first step to maximizing the young talent in place on the North Coast and to make contention in 2011 a reality is where Acta will be judged in the very near future as his impressive press conference and demeanor will earn him only so much goodwill in lieu of results.

The time for talk is over and the time for Acta has begun in Cleveland.

A Lazy Sunday with the Candidates

Realizing that CC and Clifton Phifer are looking like they’re heading towards each other at ramming speed for the World Series and the articles have started on how painful that is for Indians’ fans; but seeing as how I prefer not feeling nauseous on Sunday mornings and promising that I’ll have some thoughts on that later in the week, let’s keep focused on what’s happening at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and worry about what could have been (or is it what should have been) for later in the week when we all have our heads in the garbage cans watching CC face CP Lee in the Fall Classic.

With that horrific scenario pushed back into the recesses (get back there!), let’s get loose on a Lazy One we return to the managerial candidate race in this election season (well, kind of) with Torey Lovullo sitting down in front of the assembled press corps on Friday.

In case you missed Lovullo in front of the cameras and microphones, the current Clippers’ manager wasted no time in attempting to put to rest the notion that he’s just an organizational soldier, waiting for his chance as another former Tribe AAA manager did in 2002.

To wit:
Some players sent down told Lovullo they had lost confidence after being yanked in and out of the lineup or moved from position to position.
“I like to get a lineup and try not to change it,” Lovullo said. “I'm big on team chemistry. I want players to know I have their back, that they can play relaxed and comfortable. ... But I expect an effort every day. This team can look different, act different and play different.”
--snip--
“The biggest challenge to an AL manager is knowing how to run a bullpen,” Lovullo said. “You try and put guys in a role in which they are comfortable.”
Lovullo thinks he can get the team to start better than the 11-21 record it had by mid-May.
“The last few days of spring training, you have to change the mindset and prepare as if it is already opening day,” Lovullo said. “I'd like to take the team on a three-day trip, like we were going on the road.”

Boy, other than REALLY trying to establish himself as a different person than Wedge (hey Eric, did you catch the license plate of that bus you just got thrown under with the “yanked in and out of the lineup or moved from position to position” line, among others), Lovullo certainly came in and hit all the high points:
Stability and development…check.
Improving the performance of the bullpen…check.
Better starts to the season…check.

Obviously, these are all just words and Lovullo attempting to say the right things, but it would certainly seem that Lovullo came into the situation with a pretty good handle on what the Indians were (and weren’t) looking for and was attempting to distance himself (at least publicly) from Wedge. There had to be a part of Lovullo that knew that he was seen by some (perhaps even some whose last name is “Dolan”) as Wedge Part II or simply an internal option and that differentiating himself from the former manager was the astute way to play his situation, particularly in front of the cameras and the microphones.

Maybe everything rolls Lovullo’s way (in terms of Acta, Valentine, and Mattingly all opting to go elsewhere or stay put), but I still believe that Lovullo finds himself in the Indians’ dugout in 2010…just not as the manager.

Of course, outside of those four candidates there seems to be a new wrinkle with the inclusion of Ron Roenicke in the mix. However, anyone else catch this snippet from Paul Hoynes in an article covering Lovullo’s interview?
The interview process…started with at least 10 candidates – including Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke who didn’t make it past the first round – and is now down to the final four.

Admittedly, I emphasized the part in bold, but that was written AFTER the report in the LA Times was picked up by multiple media outlets and is even mentioned in the AP story on ESPN that, “Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly and Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke are expected to be brought in next week for interviews”. Despite that, Hoynes seems to assert that the finalists are still four and that Roenicke WAS a candidate who did not make the cut.
So…is he another finalist or isn’t he?

Regardless if he is or not, if you want a bit of background on Roenicke, he did a Q & A with Baseball Prospectus a while back and gets into what the duties of a bench coach actually entail (something that a lot of people probably don’t know for as much talk as there is to “just go get a bench coach of a successful team”) as well as articulating some of his baseball philosophies. He hits on his thoughts on aggressiveness on the basepaths (an Angels’ hallmark, which he thinks doesn’t fall into the category of “overaggressive”), his thoughts on platooning young players, and how his shortcomings as an MLB player have allowed him to have a greater appreciation of the “little things”.

Roenicke is an interesting option (again, if he is an option) as he would certainly represent an outside opinion and a different way of thinking than the one that the Indians have subscribed to under the Mark Shapiro-Eric Wedge regime. Roenicke could offer that breath of fresh air to implement strategies and assert ideas that may be foreign to the straight-line thinking currently in place to the benefit of the team.

Speaking of foreign, is anyone else still baffled by this Valentine press conference?
If you’ll remember, he said “I can tell you I don't know about the American League, I don't know about the (AL) Central, and I don't know about the Indians, but I sure as hell am willing to learn and spend about 28 hours a day, if necessary, to know everything I could possibly know.”

Isn’t this the same guy that is covering and analyzing the MLB playoffs for the Worldwide Leader and has been since the end of September?

Are you telling me that Valentine claimed to the Cleveland media that he knew nothing about the American League or that he had watched a generation of baseball players on TV…and ESPN simply handed him the analysts’ chair on their set, figuring he could put in some of his “28 hour days” to catch up two weeks earlier or that he would be able to just watch these games and impart his limitless baseball knowledge onto the baseball population despite not knowing about the American League?

Valentine sits in Bristol and talks about baseball with the likes of Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, and Buster Olney as a paying job and he took THAT angle when addressing the media, not even attempting to show that he’s done any research on the Indians to…you know…see if it might be a situation, player-wise, that he would want to walk into as a manager?

Maybe that’s it…that’s it not a situation he wants to walk into, but wants to get his name out there as a candidate for when the Mets or some other high-profile team needs a manager, so they know that Bobby V’s back on the menu. Maybe it’s an act, maybe he just doesn’t care, or maybe he doesn’t feel that he needs to justify his candidacy to a group of writers whose opinion he cares so little about that he couldn’t care less.

For all we know, he nailed the interview with the Indians’ brass and simply wasn’t in the mood to make himself look good in front of people who aren’t making the decision whether or not to hire him. Terry Pluto’s comment that Valentine “had a knack for remembering names and getting a sense of what the Indians are about, despite his public claims not to know much of the Tribe or the Central” would certainly support that idea.

What makes Bobby Valentine tick has remained an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded by mystery since his time in Texas and Cleveland may have just received their first taste as his true interest in the job remains up for debate, if only for the tangled web that he cast in his brief time on the North Coast.

In terms of true interest, the speculation is growing that Don Mattingly may be using the Indians’ interest to make sure that a power transfer in Los Angeles goes a little smoother than it did in New York, in terms of Torre handing him the reins:
The interest in Mattingly on the part of Washington as well as Cleveland might solidify Mattingly's status with the Dodgers. The current plan appears to be for him to take over for iconic manager Joe Torre after the 2010 season. It would seem to be a long shot to think he'd give up the Dodgers -- a storied franchise where his middle son is a minor league player -- to jump to a rebuilding situation in Cleveland or Washington.

This isn’t rocket science when you think about the fact that Mattingly was burned in NY, where he was assumed to be the heir apparent before Joe Girardi got the job and is simply leveraging his “interest” in the Cleveland and Washington job to show the Dodgers that he’ll leave unless he’s given a clearer picture (particularly clearer than the one that happened in NY) as to what happens when Torre retires.

As to the question of Mattingly’s readiness to be an MLB manager, Rob Neyer has some thoughts prompted by a piece from Matthew Pouliot (one that goes a little outside the lines in terms of evaluating Mattingly in the context of his family issues), with Neyer asserting that:
The more substantive point is that Mattingly has never managed a baseball team; the closest he's come is one season as Joe Torre's bench coach. The New York Yankees knew Mattingly better than anyone, and after his one season in that role, he was passed over in favor of Joe Girardi as Torre's replacement. Since then, he has served as Torre's (and the Dodgers') hitting coach.

Mattingly might be a great manager right now, if given the chance. But these stories -- big name with little or no managerial experience gets the big job -- rarely have happy endings, and often the sad ending comes quickly. If Mattingly really wants to manage, he should volunteer to return to the minor leagues and learn how to run a 25-man roster. But considering the pay cut he'd have to take, I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

Neyer’s second sentence (the one in bold) is the one that I can’t get past, in that the Yankees had EVERY good reason to give Mattingly the job (a Yankee legend on Torre’s staff as his bench coach who was universally well-respected) and didn’t. Obviously, the availability and track record of Joe Girardi in Florida played a role, but anointing the beloved Don Mattingly as the new manager of the Bronx Bombers seemed at once to be a foregone conclusion when Torre left. Seeing as how he was a finalist for the job, why is he not managing the Yankees today?
Is it really just the lack of managerial experience?

Back to that managerial experience idea, Manny Acta remains the one candidate who possesses some time as an MLB skipper (albeit inauspicious) and who came across as impressive to the media (not that they’re making the decision), something he likely did in front of the Indians’ brass as well. However, as always, there’s a “but”…as Acta (as expected) has officially been named one of the four finalists for the job in Houston – the job he referred to as his “dream job”.

If you’re looking for a leader in the clubhouse (at least to me), I’m thinking that Acta looks like the most logical fit. While a total outsider like Valentine makes sense on many levels, there remains the idea that Mark Shapiro has created this new “window of opportunity” with the trades of this summer and that the dismissal of Wedge put him in the crosshairs of being the next on the firing line if things continue to go awry. With that in mind, what would the introduction of a complete wild card like Valentine mean? Couldn’t it result in Shapiro and a guy like Valentine not meshing with the end game being Valentine’s dismissal and Shapiro’s claim that Valentine never fit in, without the Indians getting a proper read on where the shortcomings in the organization lie?

The simple fact is that this managerial selection will have as much bearing on the future of Mark Shapiro as GM of the Indians as it will the longevity of any of these candidates’ future with the Indians, so if Acta comes with the credentials, the image, and the backing of baseball people that assert that he was in an untenable situation in Washington – enough to satisfy Shapiro that he’s the pick to win in Cleveland (with Acta putting forth the idea that he would look at internal candidates like Lovullo, Columbus hitting coach Jon Nunnally, and Columbus pitching coach Scott Radinsky to build his coaching staff), then Acta should be the guy.

However, that selection should be made with the understanding that the Indians’ Front Office is hiring the guy that they feel fits in best with what they have in place and any continued failures by the product on the field will no longer be able to be chalked up to deficiencies in the dugout, but up to the offices at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as well.

As for the players that figure to be led by any of these guys, Adam Van Arsdale at LGT has a nice write-up on some of the young players that may play a role in the 2010 season, notably Mike Brantley and Carlos Santana, putting forth the idea that those two prospects are quite certainly the real deal.

On the topic of offensive upgrades emerging from within, the aforementioned Santana was also the topic of discussion recently at The Hardball Times, as was Matt LaPorta.
Carlos Santana
The 23-year old switch-hitter has emerged as an elite catching prospect with a major league ready bat. He spent the entire 2009 season with the Akron Aeros of the Eastern League (Double-A) putting together an an eye-popping line of .290/.413/.530. His plate discipline is also advanced beyond his age.
--snip--
Santana will likely hit for a solid average and decent power numbers, in the range of 20-25 home runs. His real value will be in his ability to draw walks and reach base. I think we can expect a batting line in the range of .280/.375/.450 in the future.

Matt LaPorta
Matt LaPorta is one of the game's top power-hitting prospects, despite his somewhat disappointing 2009. LaPorta's prime is coming on fast, and his strong plate coverage and natural home run swing are too much to ignore. He still has the ability to turn into a superior middle-of-the-order hitter, and he is one of my very top fantasy breakout players for 2010.

Some answers should start to emerge this week as to who will be given the chance to develop these players pertaining to Acta in Houston, the actual level of interest for Valentine and Mattingly, and whether other candidates (like Roenicke or even Clint Hurdle) have in fact entered the mix. For now, answers are scarce and opinions and questions remain prevalent as this four-ring circus of a managerial search rolls on.

Mailing in the Tomahawks

With the second interview completed, with Bobby V…um, not exactly “nailing it” and the third interview (Lovullo) scheduled for Friday, let’s get into the latest and greatest (relatively speaking) on the Indians’ managerial search as we release some Tomahawks:
__________

With Bobby Valentine really mailing in the “meet-the-press-greet-the-press” portion of his interview, let’s take a look at some of the real beauties dropped on his “desire” to lead the Tribe:
"This is an opportunity to manage a major-league team with a group of major-league class people. I'd almost have to ask why wouldn't I want the opportunity? . . . It's one of the best ballparks in the world. They asked me at ESPN, "Why do you want to go there?"
"Why wouldn't I?"
--snip--
"I think I'm being asked to be part of a baseball culture, to be part of a process that might be lasting, might be special. I like special."

Hey Bobby, thanks for showing up with your charming generalities and non-descript stories told with a smile…I would maybe look at buying in Bristol.
__________

Comparing Valentine’s presser with that of Acta, is there much of a question which prospective manager came across as better prepared, more confidence-inspiring, and (frankly) more interested?

Regardless of that, as well as Manny Acta presented himself in his press conference, you can almost already hear the critics howling at Acta, if he were in fact named manager, as a losing organization picking a loser. Whether that’s valid or not, the Nationals’ record in 2009 was 26-61 (.298 winning percentage) under Acta and 33-42 (.440 winning percentage) after he left, which certainly causes some concern as to his ability to maximize talent.

However, while it’s easy to fall into the trap of looking at Acta in Washington (particularly his record) and simply dub him a “loser” without much hope that he could find much more success in Cleveland, I’ll direct you to a comment made by Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan in a recent online chat.

The Q & A looked like this:
buffum (Austin TX): Acta or Valentine?
Joe Sheehan: Acta. He's the next Terry Francona.

I’m not sure if the next Jon Lester or the next Kevin Youkilis can come along with this “next Terry Francona”, but it sounds like the beginning of a plan to me.

Also, if somebody could shed some light on who this astute question came from, it would be much obliged.
__________

Of course, the corollary to Acta’s situation is that he’s also a candidate in Houston and Ken Rosenthal thinks that Astros’ owner Drayton McClane may attempt to make this interesting if he senses a competition with the Indians for the services of Acta:
Acta not only is a finalist for the Indians, but also a leading candidate for the Astros. The Indians are not likely to alter their process because of the Astros' interest. But Astros owner Drayton McLane might react to the Indians' pursuit.
The competition for Acta is reminiscent of the battle between the Rangers and Orioles for Phil Regan after the 1994 season. The Orioles' interest in Regan only intensified after club officials learned that Regan also was a target of the Rangers and their new general manager, former O's exec Doug Melvin.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos, fearing he might lose Regan, would not let him leave Baltimore without a contract. McLane is the same type of owner that Angelos was then — intrusive, competitive, prone to impulse.
--snip--
Acta, who began his career with the Astros and spent 16 years in the organization, told reporters that rejoining the team would be "too good to be true." The Indians, however, are a far more stable operation.

Now there’s speculation (admittedly wild speculation at that) that the Blue Jays may express an interest in Acta because of his connection with some of the principals in the new Toronto Front Office:
If Manny Acta doesn’t get the Cleveland Indians managing job, I wouldn’t be surprised if he figures in any reworking of the Toronto Blue Jays coaching staff. Never mind that new Jays assistant GM Dana Brown worked with Acta in Montreal and with the Washington Nationals; Acta is also known to Alex Anthopoulos and Tony LaCava.

Suddenly, somebody’s looking like the belle of the ball with a full dance card to boot…
__________

If Acta could have a destination other than Cleveland this off-season, it seems that Don Mattingly may be keeping his address as Jon Heyman asserts that there is an understanding in place to keep Mattingly in Chavez Ravine as the heir apparent to Joe Torre:
So while no one is saying it officially, the Dodgers are one team that truly has a manager in waiting. (According to Torre, the wait will be one more year, as he reiterated to SI.com that it's his intention to make 2010 his last year as Dodgers manager.)
--snip--
Mattingly said he believes Torre when he says he intends to make 2010 his last season managing the Dodgers. "He's not as leverage-the-media guy," Mattingly said. "But nobody knows the future."
Mattingly understands the future isn't guaranteed to anyone. But his looks pretty secure in Dodger blue.

Could we suddenly be looking at a “always the bridesmaid, never the bride” situation emerging here?

I suppose if anything can be taken from these possibilities, it’s the fact that at least we’re looking at guys other teams are interested in and are targeting managerial candidates that other teams feel just as strongly about. To that end (and to bring this around to a couple of names NOT on the “finalist” list), when was the last time you heard of an interview for Hargrove when a managerial position (or even a coaching position) arose in the past…how about Tony Pena?
__________

With Acta perhaps going to Houston and Mattingly perhaps staying put, is it any surprise that it looks like Clint Hurdle may now be entering the picture? Since I’m losing track, would Hurdle represent Plan D, or are we already on E?
Actually, I think it’s F…

Whatever letter we may find ourselves on, it would seem that Hurdle has entered the mix and perhaps for no other reason than to have an option in case everyone else bails out. How serious a candidate Hurdle should be considered remains to be seen; but if you don’t like the difference between the Nationals’ record with Acta and without Acta, you’re not going to like this:
Colorado Rockies - 2009
18-28 (.391 winning percentage) under Hurdle
74-42 (.638 winning percentage) after he was fired

If Hurdle gets into the finalist stage of the process (hopefully having more to say than that he has no idea who the starting third baseman might be), I’ll get into the ins and outs of Hurdle; but until then, we’ll just call him “Plan F”.
__________

Two managerial candidates have finished their interviews, with one coming across well-prepared and interested and the other coming across as “above” the process and assuming that he could sit before the microphones and charm his way into the job.

More are on the way, but whether some of the aforementioned candidates (of the ones on the plane from the NLCS) see the Indians as their first choice may dictate the Indians’ “selection” as much as anything.

Then There Were Four

In light of the recent machinations having to do with the Indians’ managerial search, I’m going to put the “Forward Thinking” series on hold until this search for a skipper starts to wind down or until information slows down on it. Obviously, the most recent happenings at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario have to do with Manny Acta going in front of the assembled press as part of his candidacy as a “finalist” for the job.

How much can really be gleaned from Acta’s words remain to be seen (although it certainly sounds like he did his homework and talked in the “we” and “us” sense when discussing the team) , but it does appear as if there are four candidates that are finalists for the Indians’ managerial position – Acta, Bobby Valentine, Torey Lovullo, and Don Mattingly.

Since the topic of Manny Acta has already been touched upon a few times in this space (a smart baseball man in a bad situation in Washington who may be pining for the Houston job over the one in Cleveland) , let’s hit on the other names on the list that apparently fill out the Indians’ pickings for their new skipper.

The name on the list that has the most MLB experience as a manager (because Acta is second in that category with…gulp… 2 ½ seasons as a MLB manager among the four) is Bobby Valentine. The same Bobby V that comes through on your “Baseball Tonight” (and I say “your” because I stopped watching that show years ago) and the one who has often been portrayed as an egomaniac, an attention hog, and a lightning rod for criticism out in front of the cameras and microphones talking as much about himself as his team. We all remember when he came back to the dugout as the Mets’ manager in disguise and laugh about it, but the episode serves as a microcosm of what you get with Valentine – a manager driven to succeed (almost blinded by that drive) who is all too willing to allow himself to become the focus in lieu of all else.

Valentine is certainly the antithesis of what the Indians dugout has looked like as “even-keeled”, “vanilla” and “robotic” are never words that you’ll see associated with Bobby V (and could you imagine The Atomic Wedgie in this scenario), but lest we get lost in the winds associated with the hurricane that is Bobby Valentine, you have to get back to the actual task at hand and ask the pertinent question – can he win with the Indians?

Since it’s been more than a few years since Valentine has managed on American soil, it’s easy to forget that Bobby V. is not just a mustachioed cartoon character, at home smiling in front of the bright lights of the TV. No, prior to all of that, Valentine was a young manager in Texas who went 581-605 from 1985 to 1992, finishing with a winning record in 4 of the full 6 seasons he managed. While his teams in Arlington only finished better than 3rd in the AL West once and never won a pennant, they were constantly in contention – often up against the “Bash Brothers’ Era” in Oakland. Interestingly, Valentine was fired from a team that had a winning record (45-41) and contained the collected young offensive talent that would eventually mature (with some chemical help) into a juggernaut as his 1992 team boasted Pudge Rodriguez (20), Juan Gone (22), Dean Palmer (23), Ruben Sierra (26), and Rafael Palmiero (27).

After his dismissal from Texas and after spending some time in Japan, Valentine was hired in Queens in 1996 and compiled a 536-467 record over his tenure there, during which he compiled a winning record in all 5 full seasons he managed. While he never won the NL East there (Bobby Cox and the Braves had a monopoly on that), he did win the NL Pennant in 2000, only to lose in the Subway Series to the Yankees.

Interestingly, when asked by the NY Times a few years back about what went wrong with the Mets, Valentine offered this explanation:
I thought we went outside too much. The key word was building, and I think after we got to the World Series, then we just wanted to create. We just wanted to pluck it out of the sky and have it. I thought we lost our mode of what made us pretty good - that we were a good team, we were going to build our own players and add a few pieces.

Sound like a philosophy that falls in line (in theory) with that of a team you know…“build our own players and add a few pieces”?

Of course, after Valentine was dismissed by the Mets, he returned to Japan and now finds himself occupying an ESPN chair, trying to get back into the mix as a MLB manager. Does he see a job like Cleveland as a stepping stone to getting back into the spotlight or does he just want to get back into MLB? If it’s the latter, you would have to assume that Valentine will do what he has always done in the MLB – win consistently, his way.

The question with Valentine (other than the fact that he made $4M last year in Japan and may be looking for substantial compensation to return to managing) is whether the Indians want to put up with the histrionics associated with having Valentine calling the shots and taking the spotlight from the team. Or is that exactly what the Indians need – a manager to take the spotlight, to generate some flavor from the dugout, a little Bobby V?
Perhaps…but at what price, both monetarily and in terms of the spotlight?

Outside of Valentine, the most intriguing candidate is Don Mattingly, who comes with instant credibility from his playing days and, more recently, from his success as the hitting coach for the Dodgers as he has assisted in the development of the young offensive talent in Chavez Ravine. However, he has no managerial experience of any kind and as nice as some memories may be of Donny Baseball as a player, the Indians would be handing the reins to a team whose biggest issue is pitching to a hitting coach who has never handled a pitching staff at any level. Truthfully, the best argument that I can make on Mattingly’s ability to handle a pitching staff is that both he and Mike Scioscia were in the greatest Simpsons’ episode of all time – “Homer at the Bat”.

It’s true that Mattingly was supposed to be the heir apparent in NY and was Torre’s bench coach in 2007, but his resume looks to be missing some key ingredients that should be contained on a cover page. Of course, Mattingly could build a coaching staff around him to surround himself with more experience, but Mattingly’s situation in Los Angeles (with Torre) is more reminiscent to me of John Farrell’s in Boston. Mattingly has coached high-priced talent in high-exposure markets in the past and, while his stated intentions that he wants to be a manager could ring true, one has to wonder if the specific situation in Cleveland is the one that he wants to cut his managerial teeth on.

Perhaps he wants a challenge and wants to get out from the shadow of Torre, but his lack of experience and a realization that he may be sitting in the proverbial catbird’s seat in SoCal, waiting for Torre to hang it up, may prevent Mattingly from committing fully to coming after the Indians’ job too hard.

As for Torey Lovullo, as nice as an MLB managing prospect as he might be, he simply has too much of the stink of Eric Wedge Part II on him to legitimately be considered a candidate, particularly one that the Dolans have to sign off on.
Remember this from last week:
Aren't we really just waiting for the final 3 to be Lovullo (with the explanation that they wanted to hire from outside the organization, but that Lovullo's interview was SO impressive that he made the final list)…

Lovullo probably has a spot on the Indians’ 2010 coaching staff and the Indians are doing him a favor by introducing him as a final candidate to put him on the greater MLB radar; but if Lovullo’s the final selection, it likely means that the Indians have been turned down by the other three or any other names that might emerge.

If you’re looking at the known candidates as a whole, I’d say that Acta and Valentine would have to be considered the most compelling choices among the four, based on experience and bringing the total package to the table, though neither comes without worries (Acta in Washington) or warts (Bobby being…well, Bobby). Acta’s interest in the Houston job and the fact that Valentine can sit in Bristol if the financial package offered is not to his liking could put Mattingly on the map to take the job.

With the list of “finalists”, we’re getting closer…to what I’m still not quite sure.

A Managerial Lazy Sunday

With so very little being known about the only real relevant topic this Sunday that wasn’t hit on earlier in the week – that is, the Indians’ managerial search – let’s take a quick look at what information IS actually being revealed as to which candidates the Indians are considering for their post of skipper. Sitting in my father-in-law’s office in Milwaukee, surrounded by Packer Green and Gold, it’s time to get loose on a Lazy Sunday:

Starting off with Terry Pluto, who seems to have the most inside knowledge of the names being bandied about by the organization, he reports that the candidates that he knows were part of the phone interview process were Manny Acta, Bobby Valentine, Travis Fryman, and Torey Lovullo. Since Pluto writes that “of the in-house candidates, Fryman has the best chance to make the final five”, it’s pretty safe to say that anyone that had fears that Torey Lovullo would be Wedge Part II can ease their troubled minds.

Who else is on that list that was involved with the phone interview process?
Those bench coaches that had been mentioned in the past (Roenicke, Wotus, etc.) don’t show up, but Pluto does put forth the notion that names that were NOT included on the list would be Mike Hargrove, Tony Pena, Buck Showalter, and Phil Garner, slipping in the strange addendum that “Hargrove could end up being a bench coach if the team hires a younger manager.”

Reading too far into this (obviously), anyone else find it interesting that the two names that Pluto mentions (one being a managerial candidate, one not being a managerial candidate) would actually set up a Fryman as Manager, Grover as Bench Coach dynamic in the Indians’ dugout?

Fryman as Manager, Grover as Bench Coach, eh?
Let me think about that one…and direct you to the interview that Fryman did with Baseball Prospectus last August where he talks about himself as a manager and specifically how he was trying to help Lonnie Chisenhall make the transition from SS to 3B, a move Fryman made for the Tigers as a young player.

Interesting in that piece is the discussion on Chris Chambliss, who Fryman valued as his manager as a young player in the Detroit farm system. Chambliss was obviously hitting coach for the Yankees’ teams of the late ‘90s and has held various hitting coaching positions since then (NYM, CIN). He is currently the manager of the AAA Charlotte Knights (White Sox affiliate), so if the concern is there that Fryman may be inexperienced for a big-league managerial job, maybe filling out the staff with veteran coaches like Chambliss and Hargrove (both former Tribe players) is how the coaching staff gets filled out to blend some veteran savvy with Fryman’s relative inexperience.

The one name that is unquestionably out there and seems to be getting a good deal of attention is Manny Acta, who may be looking at the Indians’ job as a fall-back to the job he’s interviewing for in Houston, who had this to say to the assembled Houston press corps about the prospect of managing the Astros:
"It would be too good to be true," Acta said. "It's amazing because as I mentioned I owe them everything, including my wife. I met her while playing in the Minor Leagues for them. That being said, I understand what the process is all about. They have to do what's best for the Astros, and I'm happy to be part of it."

Wouldn’t it be nice to hear a managerial candidate for the Tribe come out and say that?
Pipe down there, Grover…

Seriously though, Acta responded to the criticism that he was unqualified to manage again based on the struggles of his team in Washington thusly:
"I learned that rebuilding is tough, rebuilding is cruel and can be grueling, but those are the types of jobs that go to people like me," Acta said. "Obviously, you're going to ask one of those big-time managers to do one of those jobs, but we have to get our foot in the door. We did it and it was a tremendous experience and we can use that going forward."
Sound about what you would imagine the Indians’ brass heard in Acta’s phone interview?

Back to square one then, it seems like the names that did get interviewed (or at least the ones we seem to know about) fall in line with what we’ve been hearing. While the list of candidates is supposed to be parsed down to five this week for the sit-down interviews, we’ll have to see if the veil of secrecy lifts at all from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Based on the tea leaves and on the coverage of various candidates, guys like Acta and Fryman are likely to make it through to the next round, with the probability of a couple of surprises (meriting a “who’s that guy” at first mention) could be included as the Indians try to find the right fit.

Maybe more will come out about the managerial search (and hopefully no more surprise surgeries are mentioned) in the next week, but until then we’ll all keep sitting, waiting, and wishing for happier days to arrive.

Tomahawks Coming from Gray Clouds

Some kind of off-season so far, eh?

This week alone has seen John Farrell passing on being interviewed for the managerial job, adding Matt LaPorta to the list of those who have gone under the knife, and the feeling that a CC vs. CP Lee in Game 1 of the World Series coming closer to a reality. With those things in mind (and with snow in the forecast for Friday), let’s release just a few tomahawks to recap the events of the week:
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The big news of the week is John Farrell’s withdrawal from consideration for the post of Indians’ manager, which had been dissected and pored over probably more than it should have been (admittedly by me, among others) in the past few weeks, meaning that the assumed top candidate for the job of skipper is not a candidate at all. While it had been reported by various outlets, Farrell’s statement to the PD removes any thought that his previously-reported disinterest was a smoke-screen or a deflection of attention while the Red Sox were still in the playoffs.

For Farrell, it represents the third time that he has declined to be interviewed for open managerial positions (the Royals and Pirates were also declined in years past) and the reasons for Farrell to resist what would look to be a job promotion (pitching coach to manager) remain a mystery. As I wrote here last week, there could be any number of reasons for Farrell not to accept a chance to become an MLB manager for an organization that he’s intimately familiar with and (apparently) remains close to.

Whether he has been promised the managerial position in Boston, or isn’t interested in returning to Cleveland because of concerns about their current situation or Front Office, or that he’s seen how green the pastures are on a team with a seemingly unlimited payroll and talent already in-house and with more on the way and isn’t interested in scratching and clawing into contention every couple of years, the fact that stands alone, without mystery, is that he’s not going to be the next Indians’ skipper.

While his disinterest had been reported by various media outlets, his withdrawal is surprising because the “criteria” laid out by the Indians last week for a new manager seemed to list Farrell’s resume, with the idea that the Indians were describing Farrell because…he was who they wanted and could go down the list of “criteria” when he was named to hang the “Mission Accomplished” banner.

If you’ll remember what they’re looking for from the recap of the presser, once you got past the broad generalizations from what they were looking for (a “good communicator”…as if they would be looking for anything else), you saw that the specific attributes that were mentioned essentially described what Farrell would seemingly bring to the table.

To wit, from the press conference and how each relates to Farrell:
8. A big point is to "understand the uniqueness of our situation and how essential young players are to us." This means that the new manager must be strong in player development, especially helping move from the minors to the Majors as fast as possible -- and then helping the players deal with trials and challenges of staying and improving in the Majors.

Understanding the uniqueness of the Indians situation…like, say serving as team’s Director of Player Development from 2001 to 2006 so he’d be pretty aware of the “situation” and would have some experience in developing young players?
That type of “understanding” with a strength in player development?

9. Experience of being a big league manager is "helpful, but not a necessity."

MLB managing experience “helpful, but not a necessity” ruled out that candidate HAS to be a former manager, which Farrell is not.

10. The Indians will have "no pre-conceptions" when it comes to experience, but it will take "a special guy to be considered without Major League experience as a coach and/or manager."

Wouldn’t a “special guy” be someone who cut his teeth in the Indians’ organization, but may be lacking in coaching/managerial experience outside of being a pitching coach for three years in Boston.

11. The Indians also believe they will have the financial resources to hire the candidate of their choice. They say that money should not prevent them from finding the manager they want.

Financial resources available seemed to imply that compensation and a healthy paycheck were thought to be prerequisites to lure Farrell, but that the Indians would not allow money to be a factor in excluding a candidate.

15. A real emphasis will be place on handling and developing the bullpen. The Indians are open to new ways of doing it, given their struggles with the bullpen in 2006, 2008 and 2009.

Regardless of what this EXTREMEMLY specific attribute may say about the handling and development of a bullpen by the previous regime, Farrell presided over the bullpen with the 2nd lowest ERA in 2009, the 7th lowest ERA in 2008, the lowest ERA in 2007…so yeah, that fits.

While the “fit” seemed to be there in terms of their expectations and the assumed candidate, Farrell’s announcement removes any shadows of any doubts that he’s remotely interested and the Indians find themselves looking at a list of candidates for manager…a list that no longer contains John Farrell.
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As for the names that are on the list, the only name that has been confirmed in connection to actually interviewing for the job has been Manny Acta, who is also allegedly interviewing in Houston for the open Astros’ job.

At first glance, Acta makes little sense if you’re looking strictly at the performance of his teams (73-89 in 2007, 59-102 in 2008, 26-61 in 2009 when he was fired) in Washington, but let’s remember what a couple of notable MLB managers had on their resume from their first managerial stint before dismissing Acta as a non-factor:
Terry Francona in 4 years in Philadelphia (1997-2000): 285-363
Joe Torre in 5 years with the Mets (1977-1981): 286-420

Maybe that’s picking just a couple of instances of managers who took some time to find their footing (not to mention the right situation in terms of talent) and other managers find success at different times and with different organizations, but it speaks to the idea that past success (or failure) does not guarantee results of either kind in terms of managers.

That’s not to say that Acta simply needs to be put in a different situation to succeed, but this interview with him, completed after the surprisingly good 2007 season as Nationals’ manager, paints the picture of a dynamic young manager who would represent a change in attitude from the dugout from what has resided there since 2002.

In terms of how he fits the Tribe’s criteria (from above), he’s been exposed to managing young players in Washington, has managerial experience (also from the World Baseball Classic), and has experience in handling and developing a MLB bullpen as his 2007 bullpen in Washington actually posted the 4th lowest ERA in the NL with a group of players that very few outside of the Beltway have ever heard of. Granted, his 2008 bullpen was 14th in ERA in the NL, but it goes back to the question of what a truly great managerial candidate looks like.

Is Acta a compelling candidate?
I suppose at some level, but as nice as it would to find the next Mike Scioscia or Joe Girardi, the candidates named from here on out are likely to elicit the same type of response as the mention of Manny Acta.

Do the names of Bob Brenly (who may or may not be interested in leaving the Cubs’ broadcast booth and has said in the past that he probably wouldn’t take a job with a rebuilding team but that “things can change”) or Clint Hurdle or Bobby Valentine or Tony Pena REALLY get you that much more excited about the outlook for the 2010 season?

Maybe they do for you, but the “meh” factor is rising for me…
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Far from a “meh” reaction is my astonishment to the news that Matt LaPorta underwent surgery on his hip and (less importantly) his big toe, meaning that he’s likely to miss the start of Spring Training, with AC even putting the atrocious thought that “his situation might be comparable to that of Travis Hafner this year” to let the water out of my perpetually half-full glass.

The timeframe that’s being given for LaPorta’s return is 4 to 6 months, which would come somewhere between mid-February and mid-April and, considering that the first game is on April 5th, let’s all hope for the 4 month recovery time.

As a quick aside here, does anyone remember Wedge’s quote when the hip injury cropped up, as LaPorta was attempting to score from third against the Tigers?
“The pain is still in there,” Wedge said. “We think he just tweaked it when he turned for home there.
“I'll tell you what happened. I guarantee you it's from him moving from the outfield to the infield. It's happened before. You're using different muscles at first base. You're doing a lot more squatting, a lot more bending. I'm sure that had something to do with it.”

Seriously, that is how the injury was initially explained…putting the idea that “using different muscles at first base” left his hip to be more open to injury.
Or was more open to a “tweak”?

Certainly the surgery (on an injury that occurred in the September 22nd game in Detroit…after which LaPorta started 9 of the 12 remaining games on the schedule) would suggest more than the idea that he “just tweaked it when he turned for home there”. Is anyone else getting tired of these “surprises” in terms of surgeries or should we suspend any additional “squatting” and “bending” from players’ usual activities?

Why is it that the players that have now gone under the knife (with the exception of Sizemore) were actually the top performers in 2009, or at least projected some hope for 2010? Asdrubal, Chris Perez, and LaPorta actually looked to be strengths of the team in 2009, with very little concern that recovering from an injury (OK, we knew about Perez’s foot for a while) would affect their performance in 2010.

Where’s the news that Peralta was battling a hip injury all year or that Rafael Perez had issues with his left elbow or that Fausto had difficulty with a loose bone and a cyst on his foot?

Wouldn’t all of that make you feel better about the 2009 performances of those players, not the news that two of the best players on the team (Grady and Asdrubal), the best power hitting prospect on the team (LaPorta) and the possible closer-in-waiting (Chris Perez) will all be coming off of not just injuries, but injuries that required surgery, for the 2010 season?

Alas, the gray clouds that usually settle over the North Coast from November to March have arrived early and are hanging low over the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.