Austin City Limits

Although the calendar tells me that it is only May, I ran across the first article attempting to identify which players are going to be possibly available prior to the July 31st Trade Deadline, a date that has become almost as active in terms of Indians’ movement over the past few years as the off-season. Regardless, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports listed his early-season candidates to possibly be moved in the next 10 weeks (and you’ll notice that Victor and CP Lee top the list) with the only appearance by an Indian coming with Kerry Wood.

Before making a comment that the Indians may have to include an MRI machine with Wood, Rosenthal writes that “the remainder of Wood’s $10.5 million salary will be an obstacle to any deal, but the Indians surely would pay some of that down to get a legitimate prospect in return.” Don’t forget that the last time that the Indians covered the remaining money on a traded player’s salary, they paid the entire 2008 salary of Lacey Cake, which…as we all know, netted them Los Santana.

Nevertheless, the piece got me thinking as to which veterans are likely to make their way out of Cleveland this year, assuming that some team would want them. It’s not even mid-May, I know, and there will be plenty of time to pore over potential landing spots for the players that the Indians are likely to move at some point, but the current list of those players is pretty well-known, fairly long, and (to date) largely undistinguished.

The obviousness that the likes of Wood, Peralta, Westbrook, and Branyan (none of whom have a guaranteed contract for 2011) has been apparent since the off-season…or in the case of Branyan, from the day that he was inexplicably signed. None of those players is going to be around in 2011 and if the second half of 2010 is going to be the continued ingratiation of the young players that WILL be around in 2010, it would behoove the Indians to acquire something of value for all of those players. Lest you think that the Indians can’t find takers for these guys, the Indians were able to find a trade partner for Ryan Garko last year…sure he netted them a AA starter that has a 7.62 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in the early going, but that pitcher (Scotty Barnes) also is likely headed for a transition to the bullpen (given his proclivity for the K as he’s striking out more than a hitter an inning) adding on to that pile of arms that lies beneath.

Beyond the obvious veterans that aren’t going to be around in September, while the local media decries the payroll-slashing ways of the team, ignoring that none of the players are part of the Indians’ future (just as they did in the case of free-agents-to-be DeRosa, Betancourt, and Pavano), there are the Jamey Wrights and Mark Grudzielaneks of the world. To me, those guys (and their ilk) but they fall more in line with the Jamey Carroll situation of last year where players like Wright and Grudzielanek (and maybe even Saul Rivera) are available anywhere, so their attractiveness if muted.

If you think that I’m just looking up and down the roster for everyone that isn’t under contract for next year and suggesting that the Indians considering jettisoning the whole lot, realize that there is one veteran player who is not under contract for next season represents the exception to the rule – Austin Kearns.

Perhaps this is jumping the gun a little and misinterpreting a solid start by Kearns into an indication that the player that averaged a line of .265 BA / .359 OBP / .450 SLG / .810 OPS the 113 games he averaged per season from 2002 to 2007 is somewhere close to returning, but the first month and a half of the season has revealed the Indians’ offense to be both left-handed centric and still wet behind the ears.

Kearns is neither of those things (LH or wet behind the ears) and he has been one of the only steady offensive performers on the team who has asserted himself into the everyday lineup the way that neither veterans (Peralta, Branyan) nor youngsters (Matt Matola, Brantley, Marson) seem to be doing with much aplomb. Whether he can continue to exceed expectations remains to be seen, but unlike the other veterans who figure to be moved this summer, Kearns may offer some value to the team throughout the 2010 season (and not just because of his $750K salary), but also past the 2010 season.

His performance to date has been reminiscent of the way that Marty Cordova emerged from nowhere in 2001 to re-establish his MLB value. Maybe Kearns parlays his 2010 season into being assured of a starting spot in 2011 somewhere the way that Cordova did with that strong 2001 (.855 OPS with 20 HR and 20 Doubles in 122 games) in Cleveland, leading the Orioles to sign him to a 3-year, $9.1M contract. Whether Kearns’ 2010 season will prompt a team to act as foolishly as the Orioles did with Cordova remains to be seen, but with the performance of Kearns to date considered (and given the makeup of the Indians’ roster, in terms of position players, going forward), the Indians have compelling reasons to keep Kearns on the North Coast past 2010, much less past July of this year.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think that Brantley and Matola are the LF and 1B of the future, both near and far (present performance considered), but on a team that looks to have 3 LH OF and a LH DH in Hafner for the foreseeable future, keeping Kearns around for the remainder of the 2010 season and even exploring the option of bringing him back to the team in 2011 (on a short deal) makes more sense than simply flipping him and entrusting the LF and 4th OF spots to Mike Brantley and Trevor Crowe, the two players who would most obviously fill those spots in Kearns’ absence.

Again, with the caveat that I do still feel that Mike Brantley is the starting LF of the very near future AND of the “Future”, his cumulative numbers in AAA (which include his time in Columbus this year) result in a line of a .272 BA / .353 OBP / .361 SLG / .714 OPS with just 31 extra-base hits in AAA in 592 plate appearances over 129 games. Think about that now…31 extra-base hits in nearly 600 plate appearances in AAA. For a player with Brantley’s speed, that seems almost impossible to do but it has been done. Seeing as how his adjustment to AAA pitching continues (and let’s remember that he does turn just 23 this Saturday), it doesn’t seem as if his adjustment to MLB is going to be much smoother. Perhaps Brantley simply will need time and AB to find success in MLB, but in the interim, it’s not hard to see how Kearns slots nicely as a LF, eventually moving to the 4th OF role if Brantley earns that opportunity to come to Cleveland.

With Kearns’ ability to play all three OF positions, unless you feel that Trevor Crowe is anything more than the beneficiary of 1st Round Draft Pick hype (and he’s not) meaning that he should be in line for that 4th OF spot, Kearns profiles quite well as a player who can fit into this lineup in either a starting capacity or a bench role…or both. Because he’s been around for such a long time, it’s easy to forget that Kearns is not-quite-yet 30 years old and him being a RH bat balances out both Sizemore and Choo as well as the Indians top 2 LF prospects, Brantley and Weglarz, both of whom are LH.

While I’m not advocating a perennial appearance of a Rusty Branyan or a Dellichaels to keep seats warm past this year, 2010 is providing proof that the development of prospects is not smooth or linear. Having a back-up plan that makes sense as either a part-time starter (subbing for any of the 3 OF or Hafner at DH) or as insurance for Brantley struggling or one of the OF getting injured without having to dip into the likes of Crowe is something that the Indians should consider with Kearns past 2010.

Trades are coming over the next 2 ½ months…don’t fool yourself into thinking that they’re not regardless of what the team’s record looks like in June or July. Most of the players that will obviously be on the block find themselves there not only because of contract status, but because their usefulness to a team without an obvious timeframe of contention is not compelling. That said, not all of the veterans on the 2010 team fall into this category as the case for Wood, Westbrook, Peralta, Branyan to remain on the team is not nearly as compelling as the case to keep Kearns for the remainder of the 2010 season and perhaps beyond, with the obvious caveat that his performance will likely make that decision.

That performance to date however, should give the Indians pause when considering about including him in the next batch of players that will find themselves elsewhere by the end of the season.

Swinging at a Lazy Sunday

Being Mother’s Day (or “St. Mother’s Day” as The DiaTot calls it…and I think he could be onto something here), let’s dispense with the pleasantries and get right going on a Lazy Sunday to give you something to read while you’re waiting for your Stadium Mustard and Jobu shirt to arrive and after you’ve had a chance to see Bruce Drennan provide the greatest 5 minutes of TV in recent memory…

As mentioned for the last couple of weeks, I was fortunate to be able to make it over to the Tribe Social Deck for Friday’s (non) game against the Tigers. After ignoring the pleas of meteorologists everywhere, we arrived to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario (after the prerequisite oil can of Miller Lite at Local Heroes) to head over to the Tribe Social Deck, excited to watch some Tribe baseball and with the knowledge that a TV exists in the TSD, which shall heretofore be referred to as “Mom’s Basement” (because if this misconception about bloggers is never going to go away, let’s embrace it) because the Cavs were facing off with the Celtics in Game 3.

Upon arrival, with the Doppler showing all of the colors of the rainbow, we were told that we wouldn’t actually be sitting in “Mom’s Basement” due to the weather (“Mom’s Basement” is in the front of the bleachers) and were given tix under the overhang behind home plate. While the game didn’t ultimately count, the highlight of the game (other than Hafner looking like…dare I say it…I do not) was hanging and sipping some 16 ouncers with t-bone and Craig Calcaterra, of The Hardball Times and blogger-in-chief of the terrific NBC Sports’ Hardball Talk. As the rain started to fall, Craig and I began to chat, as he says, “for a long time about life, baseball, Mad Dog 20/20 in brown bags at the University of Dayton and everything” as we realized that we had actually attended the same party at UD (confirmed by his memory that the bathroom in the house had autographed 8 x 10’s of Young MC and Joyce DeWitt hanging on the wall…which my college house did) many moons ago.

As the hail started to fall, and with the Cavs’ game no longer on the big screen (yes, it really was during the rain delay) with the victory in Boston secured, and we contemplated our drives home (his to Columbus more than mine to the West Side), we decided to leave the friendly confines as the tarp blew around the diamond, a choice that looks even wiser in hindsight as the game would be called 90 minutes later.

Next time, perhaps the experience will actually involve “Mom’s Basement” and I think that our suggestions to Rob Campbell of the Indians (who could not have been more accommodating) that anyone sitting in the Tribe Social Deck should be given bathrobes and have access to an unlimited supply of Hot Pockets may find a toehold in The TSD…er, “Mom’s Basement”.

Nevertheless, it is a Sunday, so moving on is what we do…
Thus, as the debate over what ails the Indians’ offense continues, I thought that it would be interesting to introduce a piece from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated examining the alarming increase in walks and strikeouts all over MLB baseball. Verducci says that, “baseball has become a game of attrition -- a kind of passive/aggressive pursuit - and it’s largely because of the way hitting is taught. Wait out the pitcher. Run up his pitch count. Swing early in the count only if the ball is in the middle of the plate. Take your walks.”

Sound like any team you know?
Reading Verducci’s piece however, it would certainly seem that this “swing-and-miss” or “don’t-swing-at-all” mentality doesn’t just exist on the North Coast and has some mind-boggling statistics to back it up:
In April, 28 percent of all major league plate appearances ended in a walk or a strikeout, continuing what has been virtually an unchecked increase in such non-contact plate appearances since the game was invented. Ten years ago, for instance, the rate of plate appearances without the ball being put into play was 26 percent; 20 years ago it was 24 percent; 30 years ago it was 21 percent . . . all the way back to 15 percent in 1920.
--snip--
When you combine strikeouts and walks, teams average 10.8 non-contact plate appearances per nine innings -- up 37 percent from 1980 and 24 percent even from 1968, in what famously became known as The Year of the Pitcher and helped convince baseball owners to lower the mound and adopt the designated hitter rule within the next five years.

If you’ve been watching the Indians, who are 5th in MLB with a 10.2 BB% and are 4th in MLB with a 24.4 K%, you’re quite familiar with this trend. Combining those two numbers means that 34.6% of Indians’ AB either ended with a walk or a strikeout, or more than 1/3 of the AB in any given game.
For some perspective on that, that percentage of Indians’ AB that either ended with a walk or a strikeout over the past 20 years (in 5 year increments) goes like this:
2005 – 27.5%
2000 – 29.1%
1995 – 24.7%
1990 – 22.7%
While those numbers are certainly interesting and seeing that number increase two-fold in a twenty year window is shocking, it’s likely that they’re more of a league-wide trend and the higher the number doesn’t necessarily equate into a worse offense. To wit, the two teams that have a higher percentage of AB that have had ended in a K or a BB are the Diamondback (35.5%) and the Padres (34.7%), and the Diamondbacks have scored the 2nd most runs in MLB with the Padres ranking (19th of 30 MLB teams) still making the Indians look positively toothless.

Perhaps the Indians are swinging and missing at pitches they shouldn’t be as Jon Steiner over at WFNY asserts. His conclusion (which isn’t surprising if you’ve been watching the games) that he backs up with some great leg work is that the most culpable players in wasting AB in the early going (most notably Sizemore, Hafner and, to a lesser extent, Peralta and Branyan) by chasing pitches are the very players that the offense is designed to rely on for run production.

It’s been said here before, but the onus of the offense does not fall onto the shoulders of the Lou Marsons, Matt Matolas, Luis Valbuenas of the world, but very squarely on those of Sizemore, Choo, and Cabrera with Peralta, Hafner, and Rusty designed to complement those three while the youngsters get their sea legs under them. Since Sizemore, Peralta, Hafner, and Rusty have all been wildly inconsistent and, at times, downright putrid, the offense has been…wait for it…wildly inconsistent and, at times, downright putrid. Again, this is taking a couple more swipes at that dead horse on the ground over there, but until those players (most notably Sizemore) turn things around, that inconsistency and propensity for putridness (if that’s not a word, I’ve just created one to describe the Tribe offense) will continue.

On the topic of Sizemore, Terry Pluto points out (among other juicy nuggets) “that something has happened to his power. Even playing with an elbow that would require surgery, Sizemore had 18 homers in 436 at-bats in 2009…So either there is an injury problem, or Sizemore has lost some power because of problems with his swing.”

For an answer to that, let’s turn to the beacon of light among the Tribe beat writers, one Mr. Anthony Castrovince, who addresses that very topic (amongst many) in the latest “Inbox”:
Sizemore used to generate a lot of topspin when he made contact, but he was strong enough and his hands were fast enough that he could get away with it and still drive the ball. Trouble is, such a swing can put a great deal of stress on the elbow upon contact, and all that stress caught up to Sizemore last year, prompting arthroscopic surgery.

What you’re seeing this year could be a byproduct of Sizemore attempting to shorten his swing and get more backspin on the ball. It’s proving to be a difficult adjustment for Sizemore to make, but it would certainly help his career, long-term. His old approach causes more strikeouts and more stress on the elbow, and his power numbers would have diminished with age. A shortened swing could allow him to raise that batting average over time and become a more consistent hitter.

That certainly makes more sense than the idea that Sizemore has completely fallen off of the map as a hitter as the adjustment may change his game and bears watching as the season continues.

Given the insight from both Pluto and Castrovince, I know that this gets hammered away at in this space, but isn’t it amazing the way that the coverage from those two have made nearly all other mainstream media forms of communication (other than Stephanie Storm, who is woefully underutilized at the ABJ) obsolete?

Meanwhile, the troika of beat writers who have covered the team forever claim that the Sabathia and Lee deals are ALREADY failures (I’m not providing the link, just know that it’s out there) or that still bemoan the low payroll (in a rebuilding year) as the main reason that attendance is so low, simply inflaming the masses by ignoring the greater issues at hand (both with the organization and with MLB) and content to take the sports-talk radio level potshots at the team.

To that end, with quite a bit of the “Dolan is Cheap” pieces coming out in response to the 2010 season that apparently has taken the city by surprise, I thought I would pass along a letter penned by one of the readers over at the LGT. In it, Eric Davis presents some information to the Columbus Dispatch’s Rob Oller (who I’m not familiar with) that should be on the fingertips of the media that cover the Indians. The whole letter is worth a read as it doesn’t absolve the Indians from culpability in the mess at hand (and rightfully so), but the high points include:
This mantra, oft repeated by the Cleveland.com community, conveniently forgets the widening financial equality gap that exists in Major League Baseball. I ask, would your audience had not been better suited to read an article with deeper insights concerning the frustrations of small to mid market teams to compete on the same level as teams who routinely spend up to $100 million more on payroll, rather than a simple reduction such as SPEND MORE MONEY?
--snip--
Can the Indians do better? Certainly. They are notoriously lousy at drafting talent, and have failed spectacularly in certain areas of player development (Sowers, Peralta, Carmona, etc.) Can they spend more? Maybe, but the rival Twins payroll is now pushing $100 million. How much more spending would bring about an instant winner? Would $20 million in additional payroll guarantee 10 more wins? Would that result in an attendance increase of 100,000 fans? How much more should be spent to be ‘better’?
--snip--
Isn’t the money better put into long-term player development so one, as Mark Shapiro puts it “can more aggressively manage the cycle.” The cycle, of course, is the bane of small to mid market teams that they have smaller competitive windows due to the current state of free agency. By trading Sabathia, Lee and Martinez, the Indians acquired a raft of potential big league talent. Growing pains, like those you see in 2010, are to be expected. Who knows, perhaps none of this talent (LaPorta, Brantley, Donald, Hagadone, Knapp, Carrasco, Santana et al) will pan out. But frankly, the Indians might be better positioned than some of their small market brethren to compete and win in 2012 and beyond — or until the next inevitable trading of stars on the cusp of free agency occurs.

Perhaps you see that as the “drinking the Kool-Aid” stance, but the financial realities that are listed in the letter (which have been hammered home here all Winter and Spring, among other places) are very real without much hope for substantive change in the very near future. Maybe people don’t want to hear about the disparity in revenue in MLB and tire quickly of the “we’re not the Yankees” excuse, but it brings into focus a major issue that I have with the mainstream media (how the majority of sports fans continue to get their news, for better or worse) in how the Indians’ season has been presented…by some, at least.

The question that is being missed by the majority of the mainstream media, quick to take the easy road which appeals to the base emotions of the fan base without presenting facts, would be to ask why the Indians (and their “small market brethren”) are content to exist in such an economic environment?

Is the power wielded from the large-market teams too large to overcome, even by a coalition of teams like the Indians, the Brewers (who are off to a bad start and are about to see what happened in Cleveland over the last few years happen to them), the Rays, and their ilk?

Why did Game 1 of the World Series pass without much more than a comment from the Indians that “it’s tough to see Lee and Sabathia out there, but we’re proud of them as players” when the situation was ripe for some soapbox preaching?

Is there simply THAT much money to be made, regardless of performance on the field that they’re just happy to have a seat at the adults’ table?

Until those questions are asked and answered, there’s going to be that ability to quickly deride the Dolans for “buying high” and “not being able to afford to field a competitive team” year in and year out.

Whether the answers to those questions ultimately reinforce the feelings that many fans have on the Dolans and the Indians largely depends on preconceptions coming into the situation, but the situation in Cleveland is not unlike one that is likely to develop in Milwaukee over the next year or two as well as perhaps even in Tampa, where the future looks as bright for the organization as the future of an organization back in Fall of 2007.

Today however, 2007 seems like a lifetime ago…

Tomahawks Every Which Way to…Lose

While listening to the call of the grounder going right through the wickets formerly known as Louie V (call him Louie Wickets) and the subsequent HR by Adam Lind, I could only shake my head and say to myself, “ah…2010 Indians’ baseball.” Losing them this way, losing them that way – it’s going to be coming at us from all directions this year, so we might as well grab a drink and do something that is always a good idea when drinking – throw some tomahawks…
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Back in 2007, when The Fist of Iron and the Fist of Steel resided the Indians’ bullpen (don’t ever call them Raffy Left, etc. unless you’re devoid of an ounce of originality), another nickname for the left-handed portion of the Fists once made the rounds. Rafael Perez was known (perhaps only to me) as The Scarecrow, with some hack even writing that “with his tall, slender build, long arms and legs always akimbo, and his hat pulled down low, it always remind me of a Scarecrow on the mound when Perez goes into his wind-up as Perez guards a Tribe lead like any good Scarecrow guards a field.”

While I’m not sure how the Wicked Witch of the West appeared on the North Coast, it would seem that The Scarecrow has been exposed to fire and, with his propensity to carry a gasoline can in from the bullpen with him these days, the straw is dwindling before our very eyes.

You know the ugliness (7.36 ERA, 2.87 WHIP, 1.146 OPS against in 2010) and you know that the situation hasn’t improved from his nightmarish 2009 season (7.31 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, .899 OPS against) , to the point that his earned run total since the beginning of the 2009 season exceeds his strikeout total.

Think about that – Perez has allowed more earned runs (45) in his last 64 games than he has struck people out (37)…yes, more ER than K from the beginning of 2009 to today. Long gone is the dominant reliever who, from 2006 to 2008 posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, striking out more than a hitter per inning pitched. Despite the positive reports from the Winter (why is this a theme?) and the intimation that he was pitching so well in Winter League ball that they might consider making him a starter again at some point, the train has gone off of the tracks and (given the nature of relief pitchers) is unlikely to find itself back on them.

What is to be done with Rafael Perez, one of the poster children for how things can fall so far, so quickly for Indians’ players over the past 3 years?

Unless the Indians REALLY think that he’s still a reclamation project (he isn’t) and because he’s out of options, the only choice that the Indians have is to outright him off of the 25-man roster, expose him to the waiver wire, and hope that he clears so he can be sent down to the Minors. Whether a trip to the Minors will benefit him at this point is anyone’s guess (as is the notion that some team will look past the last year and a half of his performance and claim him), but the Indians have zero confidence in Perez (and rightfully so) and should start moving some pieces and parts around in the bullpen to see if they can find, ironically enough, what they did in Perez in 2006 – a modest pitching prospect who can effectively contribute for a couple of years in the bullpen.

Is that guy Josh Tomlin or Yohan Pino?
Who knows, but the carousel is about to start in the bullpen, with Saul Rivera having an out clause in his contract if he isn’t on the MLB roster by May 15th and with Kerry Wood’s rehab assignments continuing in earnest.

Given that we have already seen Hector Ambriz come up to replace Joe Smith, and he has looked decent in his brief time with the team, you’re about to see that I-71 Shuffle begin amongst the middle relief pitchers to see who can throw up some scoreless innings. Most of the current relievers can lay claim to some success (except The Scarecrow) as Jamey Wright’s stranded all 12 stranded runners that he’s inherited and Lewis and Laffey have shown promise, if not consistency. Short of anyone not named C.F. Perez (who has given up earned runs in 1 of his 11 outings…you notice the “earned” designation) and Tony Sipp, I’m fine with moving some of these pieces and parts around in the bullpen to see if the Indians can find some of that lightning in a bottle that every other team in MLB seems to find in their crawlspace.

Wherever that lightning is coming from, the Indians shouldn’t be reticent to make some moves and the first move needs to be taking The Scarecrow out of the field before the fire spreads.
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This little “prediction” was written at the beginning of April as part of my convoluted “Season Preview” where the crystal ball may have actually had some clarity:
May 22nd vs. Cincinnati Reds
The widespread roster machinations continue as Luis Valbuena, being used increasingly in recent weeks in a platoon with Mark Grudzielanek at 2B, is sent to Columbus after failing to get to three groundballs induced by Jake Westbrook in a 7-4 loss to the Reds. After the game, manager Manny Acta proclaims that, “with as many groundball pitchers as we have on this staff, failing to get to those balls is inexcusable and Luis knows better than that”. To replace him at 2B, Jason Donald is called up as he is scorching AAA pitching for Columbus while providing stellar infield defense for the Clippers. Donald begins to play everyday for the Indians at 2B after his call-up, posting average numbers at the plate but combining with Asdrubal Cabrera to provide an airtight middle of the infield defense that improves the “luck” of the groundball starters dramatically. The move of Valbuena to AAA and Donald to MLB is one that will remain in place until Valbuena ascends after rosters expand in September as he prepares to assume his role as Future Utility Infielder with Donald using the opportunity in 2010 to cement his place as the Indians’ 2B.

Maybe the quote wasn’t there from Acta after Wednesday’s debacle and I’m not sure that you make a move simply because of one play (Louis V had the double in the 8th to make it a 2-run game), but this move is coming and it is not far off…
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While I’m not one to subscribe to the notion that one can’t drink clear liquor from Labor Day to Memorial Day, I often find that my preferences in beer do vary wildly by the season. That is, a light wheat beer certainly doesn’t play as well against the Winter wind the way that a hearty stout does…and vice versa. Call it Drinking by Season, or whatever you want to, but the fact that most beer labels have developed a full “seasonal” line lends some credence to this idea. Of course, the High Life remains in steady rotation throughout, but the idea that I like to hang with a particular beer for a season is a practice that I find to be more than enjoyable.

That being said, with Memorial Day (and Carlos Santana) fast approaching, it’s time to start narrowing down the Beer of the Summer for 2010. Realizing that some past winners (312 by Goose Island, Blonde Bombshell by Indigo Imp, Pale Ale by Bell’s) are not eligible for inclusion in the running, it’s time to ask for some suggestions.

Generally, the rules are that I won’t go with a seasonal offering from a brewery because of the variance that will go from year to year (Christmas Ale, 2009 – Tremendous; Christmas Ale 2010 – Not So Much) and don’t even THINK about including a beer brewed by a large brewery (even if it is done in an underhanded way, like Blue Moon is) or anything that is coming out of a certain Boston brewery as I have my feelings about Boston that prevent me from drinking anything brewed there.

The leader in the clubhouse is another Bell’s Brewery offering, Third Coast Beer, that I just had at the local Winking Lizard (though I have yet to find it on the shelves anywhere) and I’ve ruled out Holy Moses from GLBC because of the fruitiness. Also, all of the Dogfish Head IPA’s have been ruled out due to the way my head feels the next day after drinking more than 3 or 4…same with Stone’s Levitation Ale. I like the Southern Tier Phin & Matt’s (plus, I’ve been to that brewery), though I can’t find that on the shelves anywhere either…which is another prerequisite.

So, let’s hear it…if I’m going to be watching this Indians’ team all summer I’m going to need to be sufficiently lubricated to do so.
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While it was written a while ago, I thought that the recent uptick in Lou Marson’s performance (his OPS over the last 6 games that he has started is 1.049) merited a mention for a piece by Ken Rosenthal as he explained why the A’s Kurt Suzuki won’t end up in Boston:
So, why won’t Suzuki be in Boston by July 31?
Because A’s general manager Billy Beane would want an even better package for Suzuki, who is under club control for three-plus seasons, than the Red Sox traded for Victor Martinez, who was under control for one-plus.
The Sox parted with pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price for Martinez, and they actually had leverage over the Indians, who needed to clear payroll.
They would possess no such leverage over the A’s.
Suzuki is a better all-around player and more valuable asset than Martinez was last July. The A’s are capable of carrying him through his early years of arbitration. At least for the moment, they lead the AL West.
The Red Sox will need to target other catchers.

Lots of little nuggets in those 129 words, what with the “leverage over the Indians, who needed to clear payroll”, that the Indians are looking to move Vic to 1B (where he is decidedly less valuable, if you remember), right down to the idea that the “Red Sox will need to target other catchers”. Also interesting that the rest of the piece focuses on Steve Strasburg being in the Minors because of Super 2 concerns, which brings us back to the idea that the Indians may be sitting on some MLB catching depth in June because of the imminent arrival of Carlos Santana, who will ostensibly relegate Marson to AAA.

Just to take this a step further, on March 23rd of last year, Nick Cafardo wrote this in a story about the Red Sox looking for a defensively-minded young catcher:
The Phillies have been talking to the Sox about prospect Lou Marson, but the price tag seems to be Buchholz or Daniel Bard and the Sox aren’t going there.

Starting to connect the dots?
While the idea that the Phillies’ price tag was Buchholz or Bard (putting Marson’s value prior to the 2009 season into context, but also perhaps the reason that Marson was included in the Lee deal), wouldn’t it stand to reason that Marson would remain on the Red Sox radar?

The price tag probably would come down precipitously, but don’t be surprised in Marson is the latest in a suddenly long line of catchers to make their way from Cleveland to Boston (Bard, Victor) or vice versa (Shoppach).
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Speaking of Boston, momentum is growing in Beantown for the Red Sox to limit the playing time or even cut ties with a rapidly declining Big Papi, for reasons laid out here by Craig Calcaterra, if you’re not aware of the situation.

In hearing this (the idea that the Red Sox should SERIOUSLY consider getting rid of Ortiz), I thought it would be interesting to lay down some numbers:
David Ortiz – 2010
.171 BA / .266 OBP / .414 SLG / .680 OPS with 5 2B and 4 HR in 79 plate appearances

Travis Hafner – 2010
.213 BA / .310 OBP / .363 SLG / .692 OPS with 3 2B and 3 HR in 97 plate appearances

David Ortiz – 2009
.238 BA / .332 OBP / .462 SLG / .794 OPS with 35 2B and 28 HR in 627 plate appearances

Travis Hafner – 2009
.272 BA / .355 OBP / .470 SLG / .826 OPS with 19 2B and 16 HR in 338 plate appearances

David Ortiz
Owed $12.5M in 2010 with $12.5M club option for 2011 (no buyout)

Travis Hafner
Owed $11.5M in 2010, $13M in 2011, $13M in 2012 with $13M club option for 2013 ($2.75M buyout)

Lest you think that this path being suggested for the Red Sox (that they’re unlikely to follow) applies to the Indians’ similar struggles with their rapidly declining DH, that would be $12.5M still owed to Ortiz and $40.25M still owed to Hafner, counting this year in both cases. Hafner’s here, for better or worse, for the next couple of years (at least), which is why the company line is toed so often in that he’s going to return. GM-in-waiting Chris Antonetti recently said this to AC:
The primary issue is just getting him going. He still has all the ingredients of what we saw at the end of Spring Training. He was certainly locked in for a couple weeks, and we just need to get him back to that point. It’s still really early in the season, and there’s a lot of time to get him on track.

They’re still optimistic because they NEED to be optimistic. Whether they truly believe that a successful Hafner is somewhere in there, just waiting to break out is a completely different story.
__________

Finally, a quick reminder that I’ll be up in the Tribe Social Deck for the Friday night game, so if you’re a glutton for punishment like I am (or aren’t aware that the Cavs are playing at 7 PM on Friday as well), pop your head in to say hello.

Growing Pains

Sitting in the RF stands Monday night, actually hearing the whir of the Goodyear blimp hovering above the Gateway Plaza on Monday night (yes, it was quiet enough at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario during the game to make the noise put off by a blimp hundreds of feet overhead audible to all “enjoying” a Tribe game), the thought passed through my mind – this was coming…

This season, frustrating and depressing, was known to be on our doorstep last July when the Indians punted on the 2010 season with the trades of CP Lee and El Capitan. Forget the rest of the ancillary parts that got moved last year, when the team traded Lee and Vic in a stunning acknowledgement that the Front Office didn’t think that the Indians could win WITH their reigning Cy Young Award winner and #3 hitter…we knew this season was coming.

The inconsistency, the losses by “this much”, the losses by “THAT much”, they’ve started and they’re going to keep coming. While the glimmers of hope are difficult to discern amongst the frustration, we are left with the knowledge that the 2010 team has little to no chance to contend, even in the AL Central, where the Indians have the 2nd worst record in the AL and are ½ game out of 3rd place in their division.
And yet, this has been bearing down on us for the last 9 months.

Perhaps the frustrating aspects of the team are not where we thought they would be nor are the strengths (to date) of the team, but this inconsistency that’s been on display since day one is indicative of any team on the “rebuild/reload/whatever”. As much ink was wasted and breath was passed regarding how important that “fast start” was all Spring, the Indians were still a team in transition, a label that still applies today and will continue to apply.

The moves have been made to “manage the cycles” prevalent in the current structure of MLB and more moves are coming. Lest anyone label the moves that are coming as “Fire Sale #3” when the likes of Westbrook, Peralta (does anyone know which team is currently cutting a paycheck to former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi so I can let him know that Jhonny has a .987 OPS in his last 11 games?), and Wood (um…yeah) are sent on their way, it will essentially complete the overhaul that was started nearly 24 months ago when CC found his way to Milwaukee.

In July of last year, there was no pretense that 2010 represented much more than the first year of the Indians attempting to rebuild a contending team as they attempted to foster the young talent in the organization while trying to resurrect lost careers of veterans, either for trade purposes or for contractual purposes. That assumption that 2010 begins the transition is easy to lose sight of (particularly with the calendar just flipping to May), but it is a reality nonetheless.

Thus, as mind-numbing as it is to watch Rusty Branyan and Peralta flail away at pitches, there has to be a realization that those aren’t the guys that are going to shoulder the load for the Indians in the next few years and aren’t seen as viable candidates to be on the Indians’ roster even three months from now. Fans can get worked up about the failures of Branyan and Peralta and wring their hands over Wood, but that narrow view is not the one in play this year. The gaze is past this year (already) and, while the Indians would probably like to win some games in the process, the development and maturation of the players that do project to shoulder the load past 2010 is where the focus should remain.

Perhaps that focus is what gets blurry, made wavy and ugly by watching an obviously flawed team night after night. Night in and night out, it’s not Jamey Wright and Peralta and Branyan that should draw ire or concern…instead it’s Choo, Cabrera, Carmona and Sizemore that should be receiving the lion’s share of attention as those are the players that are most important to this team when it will matter…but that just isn’t this year.

Certainly, the first month of 2010 has already contained some surprises (Fausto and The Fury, which sounds like the name of a band) and some disappointments, most notably Hafner’s health and ineffectiveness after a Spring of optimistic, albeit prematurely optimistic, reports. All told however, the season to date has been dreadful and while some may be ready to throw dirt on the grave of most of the current players, notably Grady Sizemore’s career (something I’m not quite ready to do, unlike that of the Indians former SS/current 3B), if 2010 can be used to pull some of these veterans out of their tailspins (however unlikely they may seem at certain times), then the season will have provided blocks to build upon.

All winter, the cry among most was to “let the kids play” and with a month gone in the season, that’s what we’re getting. The young players are out there, taking their lumps and attempting to adjust to MLB, which means that there will be the bad to go hand-in-hand with the good. To wit, Dave Huff has gone from potential pillar to pariah in a matter of weeks as Lou Marson has gone from laughingstock to one of the better hitters in the lineup (not that the competition in the group is stiff) in the same timeframe.

If you’re expecting a different path to be taken throughout the season, get ready for some disappointment because that’s not going to change. As great as it would be to have an Austin Jackson burst onto the scene, remember that the last young Indians’ hitter to burst on the scene was Ben Francisco, who just as famously fizzled out and now finds himself tethered to the Phillies’ bench as a 28-year-old 4th OF. That being said, there’s no question that some signs of life from the Matt LaPorta/Mike Brantley/Luis Valbuena portion of the roster would be a welcome respite from wondering if the veterans will be able to carry any weight on the roster when (or is it if?) the young talent develops.

At the risk of beating that dead horse, that development is the crux of the season and, more specifically, flattening out the learning curve for the young talent currently in the organization from Cleveland to Kinston.

The season quickly becomes a series of “ifs”…
“If” C.F. Perez can establish himself as a viable closer and one to two more young relievers (let’s say Sipp and Jenny Lewis, just to put names on it) can assert themselves into the team legitimately having some confidence in a bullpen mix going for…

“If” Carmona can return to even a close facsimile of his former self while Huff or Talbot (or both) prove that they can legitimately lay claim to a rotational spot in 2011 and beyond…

“If” some semblance of a consistent everyday lineup can be achieved with the troika of The BLC, Cabrera, and Sizemore leading the way and the quartet of LaPorta, Santana, Donald/Valbuena, and Brantley following close behind…

“If” Travis Hafner can…well, that one doesn’t really have a sunny outlook to even dream on, but you get the idea.

That’s what this season is for, to answer those “ifs” because not all of them will come down on the positive side of the ledger. To ascertain answers to those questions, this roster needs to flesh itself out and reveal itself over the course of a season, not just over the course of a month. It’s horrible to witness every day…I know, but the individual results will dictate how near or how far away this organization is from making legitimate steps back up that mountain that looms ahead of them, so tall and so foreboding.

Truth be told, expectations weren’t that high to begin with for the season and the start has borne out those expectations. That’s not pointed out to absolve the state of the organization, only that this season likely represents the low point after the rapid descent down from near the mountain top in 2007.

We knew that this season was coming, the question that would be best served to find an answer in 2010 would be – how many more similar seasons are coming on its heels?

Lazy Mayday Sunday

May is here, Paul is in Florida, and T-Bone is here for another sub-par Lazy Sunday. All signs for a "Mayday! Mayday!" distress call from you the reader. So without further adieu...

- After watching Droobs knock in the winning run in the 11^th last night, those left in the ballpark took to the concourse to watch The King, Mo and crew take out the Celtics in Game 1 over at the Q.

- Those in the Tribe Social Deck, however, had the best of both worlds.

- In case you missed it, Hector Ambriz was activated off the 15-day DL Friday, called up and pitched a scoreless eighth in the loss to the Twinkies. Ambriz was a Rule 5 selection from the Diamondbacks, so he must stick around the rest of the season or be offered back to AZ for $25,000. Joe Smith and his 7.71 ERA through nine appearances was sent down to Columbus, although Manny Acta says not to read too much into the move.

- Those Twins new road uniforms are really sharp, aren't they? Love their home throwback as well.

- Kerry Wood will be starting his rehab assignment soon, and it looks like it will be in Akron.

- We should thank both Paul and Vince over at ’64 and Counting for giving Jhonny a kick in the pants. Over his last six games, JP is mashing (.435/.481/.783/1.264).

- More good stuff over at ’64 and Counting, as Vince touches on both the inaccuracy of the “Most-Hated Baseball Team" rankings along with the fact the Indians are among those teams considering giving their ballpark a facelift.

- Paul touched on him Thursday, but there’s more chatter out there for Jason Donald to get a call-up to the show sooner than later. Terry's Talkin' briefly touches on Donald while Tony Lastoria names him the Indians Prospect Insider Minor League Player of the Week.

- Pluto closes with two things that strike a chord with me. The first being Chris Perez not being allowed to talk after games (most recently running his mouth after losing on a squeeze bunt in Anaheim), the second being a grass-roots effort to get The Rock into the Hall of Fame. No, not Dwayne Johnson, but Rocky Colavito. I grew up in a house where Rocky was revered, so clicking through this site was time well spent, and I’ll definitely be putting in a call to my dad this afternoon to make sure he saw the site. Be sure to catch the Detroit Free Press interview with Colavito, published on the 50^th anniversary of the infamous trade for Harvey Kuenn.

- I’ll conclude with a reminder for everyone to tune into Paul and Tony Lastoria’s weekly all-things-Tribe show, Smoke Signals, airing each and every Thursday evening on The Cleveland Fan Live. Since I can rarely catch the boys live, I bring the them along on “long run days” as I prep for the CLE Half Marathon. Thanks guys for making those long ones a little easier, and thanks to all of you for making it though this Paul-less Lazy one.

Tiny Tomahawks

With The DiaBride and I heading off to a weekend wedding in Key West (sans children) and with the Indians just missing a chance to go 4-5 on their West Coast swing (and why does “just missing a chance” feel like a phrase that’s going to be in heavy rotation this year), I’m going to hold off on any heavy lifting this late in the week if only so I’m not tying up my hands (which I’m preparing to be ready to both be carrying drinks all weekend) with any big Tomahawks.

Thus, I’ll let you ruminate on just a couple of little Tommies…

…Justerson has allowed 25 hits or walks in the 46 times that a LH hitter has faced him (with 6 of those hits being for extra-bases) and is scheduled to face the Twins on Saturday afternoon…the same team that began his sudden demise after his first two “strong” starts of the season.
Enjoy that one while I sip my gin-rocks on the beach…

…Jason Donald is now sitting on an OPS of .940 in Columbus, behind some guy named Santana (1.093 OPS) and lil’ Jose Constanza (1.027 OPS…Trevor who?) and is likely angling for a promotion to Cleveland at some point, perhaps around Memorial Day. He will OBVIOUSLY be the biggest name promoted around that time…why, who is this Santana kid?

…Lou Marson nearly doubled his OPS in the last two games of the Angels’ series (yes…from .250 on Tuesday morning to .464 on Thursday morning) meaning that the calls for Carlos Santana’s promotion should abate for 30 seconds or so…

…If the lingering effects of Matt MaTola’s hip and toe surgeries mean that he’s still not ready to play every day and he’s struggling like he is (last among regulars on the team in OPS not named Marson…who’s suddenly on MaTola’s heels), at what point do the Indians consider putting him on the DL, then allowing him to come back fully healthy instead of the current plan of play infrequently and struggle while doing so? With Kearns playing like he has (SURPRISE!) and the team “committed” to giving Rusty Branyan consistent AB, what’s the harm in letting MaTola take a break for a while, build some confidence in a rehab stint and come back full force? There’s something to be said for letting a young player fight through his struggles and adjust to MLB pitching, but that assumes that the player is fully healthy…something that MaTola is obviously not.

…Travis Hafner has been sitting against LHP with Acta explaining the decision thusly, “in sports and in life, you try to put people in a position where they can have success.” Hafner is guaranteed to be paid by the Indians through the 2012 season and the manager is saying (in April of 2010) that putting him in the batter’s box against LHP is not putting him in a position where he can have success.
This…this might get awfully ugly.

…After having to pass on an invite to be in the new Tribe Social Deck (AKA “Mom’s Basement) on Opening Day, I’m pleased to pass on news that I’ll be in this newly created space for bloggers and Twitterers and Facebookers (which I guess I am all three, even if First Mate t-bone runs the last two applications) for the game on May 7th against the Tigers. The “Basement” is in Left Field (near the Home Run Porch), so if you’re attending the game, stop by and say hello to yours truly and t-bone, who will be handling the “social media” portion of the arrangement.

Finally, speaking of the esteemed t-bone, with me flying back to the North Coast (regrettably) on Sunday, t-bone has agreed to captain the Good Ship Lazy Sunday in my absence. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go pack my white linen pants and flip-flops.

Jhonny Crash

The offense has been bad, worse than bad…painful to watch, excruciatingly dismal to dissect and depression-inducing to think about. The disappointment goes up and down the lineup, from the struggles of Sizemore and Cabrera to the growing dread (if it isn’t already realized dread) that all of the positive talk about the health of Hafner was just that…talk, from the inability of ANY of the young players to adjust and flourish to the acknowledgement that Austin Kearns in the clean-up spot may actually be a good idea.

We laughed away at the aging and punchless White Sox lineup (which has now scored 12 more runs in 19 games than the Indians) while The BLC carried the offensive burden in the short-lived “winning streak” and now attempt to believe that this team HAS to get better, to rationalize that the talent in the lineup SHOULD be performing at a higher level. However, the facts remain the facts (even if it is in the early going of the season) as the Indians’ offense has prevented the team from taking advantage of some unlikely-to-continue starting pitching and getting out to that “hot start” that was so important.

While the disappointment with some of the players is tempered by either their youth or their recent performance, one stands out as the poster boy for all that is wrong with the Indians’ lineup – Jhonny Peralta.

Long gone is the idea that Peralta would thrive under the guidance of Manny Acta, out from under Eric Wedge’s thumb. It seems foolish in hindsight to think that Peralta, with a full off-season under his belt to be ready to be the “3B of the Present” would somehow morph back into the player that barnstormed his way to a 24 HR season as a 23-year-old shortstop, back when his potential seemed limitless.

From Peralta bursting on the scene back in 2005, we’ve seen Peralta swing up and down throughout the course of the season with the end result often disappointing, but with those flashes of his former self that let the imagination think that Peralta could return to the origins of his success once more.

Now, as the calendar threatens to flip to May a full 5 years removed from Peralta’s breakout 2005, no such illusion exists – Jhonny Peralta has regressed into a player undeserving of regular AB, both by his performance at the plate and in the field. Throughout the decline, Peralta has pouted about a move from SS to 3B, questioned the manner in which he was informed of said decision, and floundered even in his “hot streaks” to the point that waiting for the conclusion of his “cold stretches” simply is no longer justifiable.

At the age of 28, Peralta has not only hit his plateau…he’s coming down the other side of the mesa. Of course, everyone who has watched Peralta since the beginning of the 2009 season knows this – as he continues to flail away at pitches low and away while watching ground balls pass under his glove, all while remaining seemingly oblivious to calls for his head (or worse) – but to truly understand how Peralta’s performance at the plate since the beginning of 2009 has completely bottomed out, let’s look for the proper context.

Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Jhonny Peralta has stepped to the plate 715 times, and in those 715 plate appearances, he has compiled this line:
.247 BA / .316 OBP / .366 SLG / .682 OPS

Horrible…putrid…embarrassing, this we know…
Just wait…of the 70 players in MLB that have accumulated 700 or more Plate Appearances since the beginning of the 2009 season (meaning that they have ostensibly remained in the lineup for a year and a month for better or worse and have not battled injury), here is where Peralta ranks in MLB:
BA - .247 – 68th of 70
OBP - .316 – 65th of 70
SLG - .366 – 70th of 70
OPS - .682 – 70th of 70

That’s right…Peralta has the lowest OPS among all hitters in MLB with 700 or more plate appearances since the beginning of 2009 as well as the lowest SLG (this for a player who slugged .520 when he was 23) – lower than that of Michael Bourn, Ryan Theriot, Rafael Furcal, and so on and so forth.

To throw more dirt on his grave, let’s lower the minimum plate appearances to 550 to see all of the names that Peralta has “outperformed” at the plate (in terms of OPS) since the beginning of 2009, among the 158 MLB players who qualify:
152. Jhonny Peralta - .682
153. Randy Winn - .660
154. David Eckstein - .656
155. Yuniesky Betancourt - .653
156. Edgar Renteria - .645
157. Jason Kendall - .644
158. Kaz Matsui - .638

If you want context as to how horrible Peralta has been since the beginning of last year, there it is…there are the 6 names (that double as answers to jokes as cocktail parties) that Peralta has exceeded at the plate. The player among those 6 with the highest number of plate appearances is David Eckstein, who has a full 70 fewer plate appearances than Peralta.

While Peralta continues to be trotted out every day, with the illusory hopes that he’s “turning the corner” or believing that “Jhonny’s starting to go the other way…which means that he’s not far away” ringing as hollow as ever, the question has to be asked – how long do the Indians keep him in their lineup?

The obvious answer is whether they think that Peralta will improve at some point to increase his trade value, which is currently non-existent. I don’t think that it’s a closely guarded secret that Peralta’s club option for 2011 was unlikely to be exercised and that he was probably going to be traded at some point in the 2010 season, in which contention was unlikely…and that was before the first month of 2010.

Peralta’s slow start however, has put the team in an interesting position in that the only way to be able to net anything from flipping Peralta (be it in May, June, or July) is to continue to give him AB in the hopes that his track record of “heating up” in May rings true. Just looking at Peralta’s career numbers (and did you know that Peralta has 3,526 career plate appearances), let’s remember the insane swings that Peralta’s performance takes year in and year out, inexplicably by month:
OPS by month
March/April - .668
May - .848
June - .730
July - .831
August - .759
September/October - .687

Can they drive up his non-existent trade value by hoping (against reason) that Peralta can get hot in May or June and fool some desperate team to become interested in his services, even if it means simply flipping him and what remains on his salary for a low-level prospect?

At this point, that’s actually the best-case-scenario as the idea that Peralta’s regressed past the point of usefulness to the team (particularly at his salary in his final year) is gaining momentum. To that end, some have clamored (well…“clamored” may be a strong word…perhaps “suggested”) for Andy Marte to take over at 3B and for the Indians to send Peralta out to pasture. While that seems like an idea rooted essentially in making Jhonny disappear from our existence, let’s remember what Andy Marte’s career numbers as a Cleveland Indian in 690 plate appearances look like:
.222 BA / .279 OBP / .365 SLG / .644 OPS

Are those totals spaced out over 5 seasons of inconsistent AB?
Absolutely and the descent of Andy Marte from top prospect to “persona non grata” in The Atomic Wedgie Era to clearing waivers at the beginning of the 2009 season comes close to matching Peralta’s decline in terms of performance and frustration. But let’s remember again what Peralta has done with consistent AB since the beginning of 2009:
.247 BA / .316 OBP / .366 SLG / .681 OPS

Compared to what Marte’s put forth in his MLB career, is there evidence to suggest that Marte would improve upon Peralta’s offense?
Not definitively, and he could certainly be worse and just as frustrating as Peralta, simply replacing him as the whipping boy du jour in a town largely in need of one.

Ultimately, the Indians find themselves with two similarly flawed RH 3B and Marte’s time to play 3B on a regular basis is going to come soon enough (assuming either Grudz or Valbuena don’t inherit 3B) when Peralta is moved at some point in the next two to three months. That timeframe for which Peralta will move on is very real as Peralta’s tenure with the Indians is getting shorter by the day and his performance amazingly is not going to change the fact that he’s not long for a Tribe uniform as it would only affect where he ends up next.

That is, if Peralta appreciably improves in the month of May or June or (gasp) both, the Indians should look to move him to the first bidder for whatever the return may be. However, if Peralta does not improve by the middle of June or so (I know, a fun 6 to 8 weeks await if he’s still struggling), the Indians should not use the “he’s earned his chance to start every day” of the idea that a “long leash” is justified any more in the handling and usage of Peralta because being the worst hitter in MLB over his last 715 plate appearances being played every day constitutes a pretty long leash.

Given the precarious position that the Indians find themselves in, wishing for Peralta to improve, if only to improve his trade value and forced to play him regularly in an effort to somehow force that improvement, a breaking point still exists. If Peralta is still unable to find success even with the consistent AB being handed to him, there will be a point when the Indians simply cut ties with him or relegate him to the role of a wildly overpaid RH bat off of the bench until his contract expires.

That day may not be coming as soon as some would hope, but make no mistake…it is coming.

A Lucky Lazy Sunday

As the rain falls on the North Coast and spirits are high for Larry Asante and Clifton Geathers in a town that loves the “potential of prospects” in all sports, let’s get headed off on a Lazy Sunday as the Indians roll on in their West Coast trip and somehow miraculously find themselves just a game under .500 despite competing with a non-existent offense with multiple black holes in the lineup and a bullpen still being sorted out.

As was stated above, the team is back to within one game of .500 after Saturday’s victory n an April in which they’ll play 15 of their 22 games on the road. While most of those road games are forthcoming, there’s no question that the Indians, warts and all, are playing a style of baseball that not many foresaw when the season began. The team is 8-9 and while for some teams an early “good start” is a fallacy (the Pirates are 7-10 despite being outscored by their opponents by a total of 61 runs in those 17 games), the Indians have allowed 13 more runs than they’ve scored for the 3rd best run differential in the division.

With the Twins looking like the class of the division (and I just didn’t see their collection of what looked liked fringy starters coming out of the gate like this or the bullpen making up for the loss of Nathan and others), the Indians find themselves in an interesting spot as it’s likely that Minnesota will start to run away and hide with this division as the weeks and months drag on. However, the rest of the division looks on par with what the Indians have put forth and with the idea that Carmona may be back to some degree (more on that in a bit) and with the offensive stalwarts looking more like warts, the Indians could have an interesting summer in front of them.

For the early part of the season, all expectations have been blown out of the water (other than the bullpen being a…well, a work in progress) as the offense has fizzled while the starting pitching has sizzled.
How long that may last, however, is where we’ll set our sights for a Lazy One…

Going into Sunday’s game, the Indians have 4 starters with ERA’s at or under 3.00 with the most promising performance coming from the man who once brushed the midges aside as merely a nuisance to the task at hand. After Saturday’s win, Fausto Carmona finds himself with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP having given up 3 extra-base hits in 27 1/3 innings pitched…yes, 3 extra-base hits allowed in the equivalent of 3 full games.

On the topic of Carmona, Jayson Stark has a little bit in his Rumblings and Grumblings piece from a scout who had some thoughts on the player we all hope will be ¡Fausto! once again:
Much better rhythm, much better balance. Throwing way more strikes than at any time last year. I don't see quite the same hard sinker as before. He’s got less movement than he used to. But of the 12 balls I saw get put in play, eight were ground balls. So he's getting the same results.

The words of that scout have certainly rung true for anyone who’s watched Carmona this year as his pace is more measured and his avoidance of the “big hit” has been tantamount to his success. That success that he’s experience thus far is due partly to the influence of a certain $850K veteran catcher who was used to seeing Carmona (both Good Fausto and Bad Fausto) as an opposing hitter, Redmond explains thusly:
“I think I faced him every time he pitched against Minnesota last year,” Redmond said. “You could see the things he was doing, not that it did me much good when I came to the plate. But at times, I would see him lose his aggressiveness. He would throw too many breaking balls. That’s doing the hitter a favor.”
--snip--
“Maybe now I’m calling the game the way I thought he should be pitching when I was with the Twins,” Redmond said.

Perhaps too much is being made of this “personal catcher” thing (and I should note that there are already rumblings in Beantown to move Fausto’s former “personal catcher” out from behind the dish because of his arm and have him perhaps replace Ortiz as the DH) and everyone is so quick to heap praise upon Redmond, but Carmona looks like a completely different pitcher than he has for the past 2 years. Even if he’s not quite throwing “the same hard sinker as before”, Carmona even a few notches below his 2007 self still has more upside than nearly any other arm in the organization.

If it feels like Carmona is taking up much of my time and keystrokes this early in the season and that the hope that Fausto is coming back has been beaten to death, it’s simply because it has. However, the reason is justified (in my mind, at least) by the fact that even if Fausto v.2007 doesn’t come back (and he might be), a top-to-middle-of-the-rotation starter under club control for the foreseeable future is still the most valuable commodity in baseball, particularly to the Indians, who will likely bid Jake Westbrook farewell at some point and are left to sort through the young arms behind Fausto as they attempt to cobble together a starting rotation.

Lest anyone forget, the guaranteed years of Carmona’s contract expire at the end of next year (during which he’ll be paid $6.1M) with the Indians holding club options for 2012 (for $7M), 2013 (for $9M) and for 2014 (for $12M). None of that money is guaranteed past the end of next year, meaning that the Indians are only tied to Carmona from year to year after the 2011 season through the 2014 season, if they choose to be. If Carmona is back to being the dominant pitcher that he was in 2007 (or is even in the same area code as that pitcher) those options, which not so long ago looked laughably expensive, suddenly become bargains for the pitcher who inarguably possesses the most talented arm in the organization.

Since he’s been on the North Coast for such a long time and has gone through the peaks and valleys as a pitcher since he arrived, it’s easy to forget that Carmona is still 26 and won’t be 27 until December of 2010, meaning that he’s actually 2 months younger than the pitcher that has been Unleashing his own brand of Fury on the AL, Mr. Mitch Talbot.

Speaking of Mitch-A-Palooza, Fangraphs had a piece earlier in the week on The Fury called “Mr. Never Misses a Bat”, intimating that Talbot’s early success was a mirage and that his inability to…well, miss bats foretold of Talbot coming back down to earth (perhaps with a thud) at some point. While the piece felt a little premature at the time (given that it was after two starts and was written before he went 6 1/3 innings in Minnesota giving up only 1 run), it does bring up some salient points on Talbot, who’s only getting swings and misses on 2.3% of his pitches and has an unusually low BABIP of .192, 2nd lowest in the AL, meaning that Talbot could be certainly walking that fine line between success and blow-ups.

While it is fun to run numbers and say that, in the last 17 innings that Talbot has thrown, from the 5th inning in his season debut in Detroit through Thursday’s start, his cumulative numbers are a 0.53 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP, it does also fall into the “if you take out the 4 runs he let up in 4 random innings, he’s a GREAT pitcher” trap of statistical illusion.

Regardless of that being the case or not, Talbot’s early success has been the great revelation on the Indians and (while I muscle down this crow that’s on my plate) if the Indians are able to get that production from the player that is ostensibly their 5th starter in a rebuilding year, Talbot’s performance ranks as the most pleasant surprise of the early going. As Terry Pluto points out, “Mitch Talbot doesn’t get rattled when he has a bad inning. He throws strikes, pitches out of jams and the right-hander has done a nice job vs. lefties (.4-of-27, .148)” and while the proof is in the pudding thus far as evidenced by his total line, there are some red flags with Talbot.

To that end, the piece from Fangraphs lingers, not because the analysis in their piece is so insightful or hard-hitting (it isn’t), but rather because it causes an unflattering light to be cast upon the strong start of the Indians’ rotation in the early going. Since I mentioned that Mitch Talbot had posted an unusually low BABIP of .192, I might as well air all of the dirty laundry all at once:
BABIP – 2010
Huff - .174
Talbot - .192
Carmona - .219

If you’re not familiar with BABIP (or Batting Average on Balls in Play), here’s a great primer on BABIP from Big League Stew at Yahoo!, with the thrust of the metric being explained very well (and very simply) thusly:
Why BABIP works: A well-known sabermetrician named Voros McCracken has demonstrated that pitchers have relatively high control over strikeouts, homers, and walks, but have relatively little control over balls in play. If a ball stays in play, the only things determining whether it will fall for a hit or turn into an out are the defense and random chance. This implies that the “pitching to contact” approach is either a myth or a byproduct of a stellar defense.

How BABIP works for pitchers: For pitchers, BABIP tends to converge around .290 or .300. A pitcher whose BABIP is significantly higher than .300 will either wash out of the league or see it come down. Meanwhile, a pitcher whose BABIP is significantly lower than .300 will see it rise. There’s generally not that much variance: Greg Maddux’s career BABIP against was .286 while Jose Lima’s was .301.

The point is that whether a pitcher is Greg Maddux or Jose Lima, the Batting Average for Balls in Play ends up around .300 over the course of a season or multiple seasons. Take a look again at the BABIP numbers for the three Indians’ starters who have experienced the most success to date on the season and realize that Huff’s is the lowest among starters in the AL, while Talbot’s is second lowest, with Carmona coming in as the 7th lowest in the AL among starters.

Just for some context here, I will point out that the lowest BABIP among starters in the AL last year was enjoyed by Jarrod Washburn at .257, the same Jarrod Washburn who remains a Free Agent today because many teams see his “success” in the 2009 season as a mirage, partly because of his…wait for it…unsustainably low BABIP last season.

Certainly there are explanations as to how a particular pitcher can “enjoy” a preternaturally low BABIP, but much of it has to do with either playing in front of an elite defense (as Washburn did last year in Seattle)…which doesn’t apply to the Indians, or by limiting the amount of hard-hit balls. If you want to use the idea that line drives are hard-hit balls, the assumption translates nicely for the future success of Carmona, but not so much for the other two:
Line-Drive Percentage (ranking among AL starters)
Carmona – 9.5% (4th lowest in AL)
Talbot – 16.9% (20th lowest in AL)
Huff – 19.7% (30th lowest in AL)

Of course, limiting damage done or minimizing the balls that are put into play to singles has helped all three as they rank in the top 20 in SLG against, but it comes back to that BABIP for me as the idea that these percentages average themselves out over the course of the season leads me to believe that the same balls that are being put in play that are becoming outs for these pitchers will eventually become “seeing-eye singles” or worse. If this was the Modus Operandi for any of these guys throughout their career (that they’ve always had low BABIP), some hope might be held up that they represent an exception to the rule, but looking at the numbers for these guys in their past does not bear that out:
Huff – 2009 BABIP in MLB - .325
Huff – Career BABIP in MiLB - .276

Talbot – Career BABIP in MiLB - .330

With those two, it gives off the idea that Huff likely isn’t as bad as he his numbers for last year would indicate, but also that his early success is going to be balanced out by some rough outings, if only by virtue of more of that BABIP creeping up over the course of the season. The same can be said of Talbot, whose Minor League BABIP is actually extraordinarily high, meaning that his underwhelming MiLB numbers probably left him a tad underrated. However, that idea that his 2010 is likely going to suffer the same pitfalls as Huff’s as more of these hits fall will begin to play out at some point. Regardless, for both of these pitchers in their mid-20s getting their first (or second) exposure to MLB hitting, the results are still largely positive.

Which brings us back to Carmona and why his 2010 feels different than the other two as in 2007, Carmona’s BABIP was .281 (it was .297 in 2008 and .330 in 2009), meaning that his “stuff” was never simply immune to nearly 30% of the balls that were put into play that year turning into hits. After Saturday’s gem, Carmona’s BABIP sits at .219 (and it actually went up after the brilliant start in Oakland) and is sure to rise, but his low line-drive percentage and low SLG against show that hitters are not squaring up Carmona’s offerings, much in the same way that they were unable to in 2007.

Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto passes along word from a scout that Carmona’s “sinker isn’t quite as good as it was when he won 19 games (in 2007), but he’s throwing the ball a lot better than the last couple of years”, so perhaps there is something to Carmona simply being the beneficiary of luck in the early going more than putting his success on the shoulders of any catcher or coach, but the way that his recent outings have gone suggest that he’s keeping hitters off-balance, which results in the weak grounders and pop-ups that we’ve seen in the early going.

As a quick aside, is there just one scout who feeds guys like Stark and Perrotto these one sentence blurbs or can do different scouts see the same exact thing and word it nearly identically to two different national writers?

Back to the rotation and the idea that there’s going to be some regression coming, this is not meant to rain on anyone’s parade regarding the early success of the Indians’ rotation as I’m not saying that the BABIP is unsustainable (well, I kind of am…), but these pitchers, who are being told to pitch to contact, are simply finding fortune in terms of having the balls hit against them being hit at a defender. The rest of the numbers on Carmona foretell a different story than Huff and Talbot, who may simply be the beneficiaries of “luck” (or whatever you want to call it) in the first month of the season.

Whether there is something deeper at play here or if the Indians have figured out a way to circumvent what looks to be an irrefutable truth in the laws of pitching remains to be seen. If they haven’t, I would expect Huff and Talbot to come back to Earth a little bit as their BABIP figures to rise while Carmona is much less likely to see his performance change radically because of his ability to induce soft contact.

Regardless of how they’ve done it, the Indians’ starters have led the charge toward .500 as the offense has scuffled and, since the assumption remains that some of the members of the rotation may regress in the coming weeks which makes it all the more important for the lineup to find some offensive spark and for the bullpen to settle into some semblance of a progression of usage if the Indians have any inclination of hanging around the AL Central race this summer.

Tomahawks...or Toothpicks?

While the attention of most of the North Coast is locked into some games up in the Windy City or a now-three-day affair in Gotham, the Indians’ season rolls on in earnest. The hills and valleys of following a...um…“maturing” have revealed themselves as the highs feel pretty good but the lows take much out of the fun of watching an “evolving” team. For the most part, the offense has remained MIA in the early going while the pitching has come back to Earth to some degree, so while I place an order for my custom Mitch Talbot jersey that simply says “THE FURY” on the back, now would be as good a time as any to get some Tomahawks in the air…
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Remember that whole 7-game tear that The BLC went on to earn him AL Player of the Week honors?
The absurdly productive week included 7 games, 29 plate appearances, 12 hits, 3 doubles, 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 7 BB as Choo took the listing Indians’ offense on his back for a week or so. Needless to say, that stretch has been the lone bright spot on the offense…but do you want some context as to how dark has the offense been?

If you take the offensive numbers for the first 15 games (so this includes the offensive “outburst” from Thursday’s game) and exclude that 7-game stretch from just Choo, here’s the line for the rest of Indians’ team on the season:
.206 BA / .286 OBP / .303 SLG / .589 OPS with 29 extra-base hits in 15 games

Again, that’s taking out the numbers for Choo in that 7-game tear (which is massaging the numbers a little, I know), but that’s over nearly 10% of the games of the season for 8 ½ players in the lineup. The cumulative numbers don’t get much better even if you throw Choo’s 7-game numbers back in there, but without Choo’s little burst against the Tigers, Rangers, and White Sox (which resulted in 4 of the 7 wins to date), the Indians’ offense has been historically bad.

I’m not going to rehash the numbers for each individual player, frankly because they’re nauseating. Everybody on the team is struggling, with Hafner being the only player (other than the aforementioned Choo) with an OPS over .700 heading into Thursday’s tilt and he was sitting on a .734 OPS. Going into Thursday’s game, the team had 4 of the 9 players with the most plate appearances on the team posting an OPS of .552 or lower and only three players had slugging percentages over .400 with those same three players (Choo, Kearns, and Hafner) being the only hitters with OBP over .315.

While following this team in the early going has felt like watching a baby attempt to walk, where even the falls are met with encouragement and the moderate successes are met with wild enthusiasm, seeing the struggles of the offense to date have been disappointing and more than frustrating.

Simply put, nobody on the team is hitting with any consistency and while Acta is trying to juggle the lineup in an attempt to jostle something (or someone) into production, it will certainly be interesting to see how this all shakes out once (or is it “if”) these April doldrums are overcome. Peralta has moved all around the lineup (and sometimes out of it), all while remaining seemingly oblivious to the fact that he’s become the poster boy for the struggles of the team in the early going (and not just in the eyes of the fans, I would guess), without sniffing success despite the statistical oddity that he leads the AL in pitches per plate appearance. Meanwhile, as young players like Tofu Lou, LaPorta – or, as some have taken to call him, “Matt MaTola” (taking the lead from Ozzie Guillen who couldn’t remember Gator4God’s name), a name that could stick…at least until his OPS touches .700 – and the recently demoted Mike Brantley have experienced more than just a difficult time adjusting to regular (or even semi-regular) AB in MLB, the offense has been painful to watch.

The famine is widespread and growing as the Indians’ offense, thought to be the strength of the team, has been scuffling…to put it charitably. Now that Rusty Branyan has returned, the amalgamations of the lineup look to vary even more as Austin Kearns and MaTola (and perhaps Hafner) will start moving around and sitting to accommodate Rusty’s “presence” in the lineup four days a week. Truthfully, as for the whole ingratiation of Rusty Branyan into the mix and how it affect Kearns and MaTola, I’m not even that concerned with it other than wanting to see MaTola in the lineup as frequently as his body (hip and toe, notably) allows because if you’re looking for that RH hitter that even has a ounce of a chance to be the homegrown middle-of-the-order hitter that’s going to break up the LH monotony that resides in the Indians’ lineup, it’s Matty MaTola…not to be confused with Mariah Carey’s record producer ex-hushand.

Maybe Carlos Santana (who is thankfully merely day-to-day after fouling a ball off his leg) comes up to the parent club in June and is able to balance out the handedness lineup a little bit as he is a switch-hitter, but the assumption that Santana is not going to go through his growing pains is what led some (OK…me) to believe that this young(ish) Indians’ offense would race out of the gates, based on talent and not experience. If you’ll remember, Matt Wieters was similarly lauded as a top prospect (and probably more so than Santana) and was called up on May 29th (and do you notice that date) and proceeded to post a line of .288 BA / .340 OBP / .412 SLG / .753 OPS with 15 doubles and 9 HR in 96 games. A fantastic line for a 23-year-old catcher, but not exactly a player ready to carry a baseball team or even reside in the middle of an MLB lineup.

Thus, while expectations for Santana will unquestionably be high right out of the gate (in late May or early June), just remember that success is not immediate for most young players – something the Indians are finding out while they attempt ascertain what’s wrong with their older players. Maybe Santana is the exception to that rule, but it’s more likely that he follows that rule. So while he may be viewed as the savior to a floundering offense, it’s much more likely that the offense will continue to flounder (Santana or not) until the likes of Sizemore and Cabrera attain some success with the hope that Hafner, Branyan, and Peralta (the latter two for trade value) can contribute something close to what they have in the past. If MaTola, Valbuena (or Donald), and eventually Santana can begin to adjust to MLB pitching and perform at a level even close to league-average, the future begins to look brighter for the team, but that remains in the future.

For now, the Indians will attempt to bring some semblance of an offensive “attack” with them as they continue their road trip (though the Athletics boast the lowest ERA in the AL) and hope that the players whose track record suggests that they should be better than this start performing. Maybe Thursday’s balanced output where every player on the team reached base is the first step in the right direction (and did you notice how Peralta’s “planned off day” turned into a XX), but until the Indians can put together a string of even moderately successful efforts at the plate, the struggles will continue.
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If you missed the Jeff Passan piece on “Unalignment” at Yahoo!, it’s an interesting take on attempting to find a middle ground between the current divisional situation and the “floating realignment” that was suggested a while back. Passan’s proposal essentially boils down to eliminating the divisions within the leagues and to simply create two leagues in which all 14 to 16 teams compete for the top 4 spots to make the playoffs:
Short of a salary cap, to which the players’ union will never agree, bringing socialism to alignment is the clearest way. Treat every team as equally as possible when it comes to scheduling, travel and pathway to the postseason.
--snip--
AL teams would play everyone in the league 11 times a year, with 19 interleague games. Those in the NL would play eight teams 10 games each and seven teams nine games each, plus the 19 interleague contests. If a team goes somewhere twice one year, it would host that team twice the next season. The interleague games would rotate yearly. And if baseball prefers 15 teams in each league, it could move Milwaukee (or another willing participant) to the AL and use a schedule with at least one interleague game every day instead of confining them to two blocks a year.

This proposal has some interesting aspects, though it doesn’t really address the growing chasm in revenue that is widening in MLB. I like the idea of every team in the AL playing everyone in the league 11 times a year, etc. and always thought that the unbalanced schedule was contrived and the Interleague “rivalries” felt artificial. Playing a balanced schedule and eliminating Interleague Play does go a long way in determining which teams are the best in the league, but is the point of the proposal really just to fix the “Tampa Bay problem” as Passan calls it?

Whether the “little engine that could” is from Tampa or Cleveland or Baltimore in any given year, eliminating divisions doesn’t amend the overarching problem and more likely just opens up the two divisions to become even more top heavy than they already are. After reading this and other proposals on “floating realignment”, why does it always just feel like the league is content to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic?

Perhaps there is no stopping this runaway freight train that is the growing disparity in revenue streams in MLB (and that is the issue here, regardless of how SI.com’s Joe Sheehan says that the 162-game schedule evens things out), but these ideas that seem to acknowledge that there is no better solution than to just live with the current arrangement and give 25 or so of the teams in MLB a chance every couple years to make the playoffs is not an endearing trend.
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As long as all of Northeast Ohio is talking draft, I thought it would be interesting to pass along a piece wherein The Hardball Times had a little Q & A with Andy Seiler of MLB Bonus Baby on the upcoming June draft. While I’m not going to pretend to know anything about these guys, Seiler has the Indians (picking 5th) taking Chris Sale in his mock draft.

This is brought up not to determine who Chris Sale is or if he’s going to be a #5 pick well-spent or even to initiate that discussion, but rather to segue into a fascinating piece that was recently written for the print version of SI on the Braves’ Jason Heyward. While you may not be aware of this, the now-20-year-old Heyward was chosen with the #14 pick in the 2007 MLB Draft, one spot after the Indians chose Akron 1B/DH Beau Mills. While the issue with Heyward wasn’t signing bonus demands (Mills’ signing bonus was $1.575M, Heyward’s was $1.7M), there were other factors at play regarding the scouting and handling of Heyward, as Tom Verducci relays the story up to and including draft day:
There was still one more team to pick before Atlanta: Cleveland. The Braves weren’t too worried about the Indians because they had not seen much of the Cleveland scouts around Heyward. “We just didn’t see him swing the bat enough to feel comfortable taking him that high,” says one Indians official. “When we saw him, he walked a lot.”
The Indians took Beau Mills, a college corner infielder and son of current Astros manager Brad Mills. Atlanta’s subterfuge campaign had worked.

While you attempt to keep down whatever you’ve eaten last, if you’re wondering what Verducci meant when he wrote that “Atlanta’s subterfuge campaign had worked”, here’s how the handlers for Heyward, an Atlanta native, limited his workouts for all teams not named the Braves:
Eugene Heyward believes he knows why other teams were not as high on his son as the Braves: Baldwin and the team quietly downplayed his ability and visibility. They sandbagged the competition. “Roy Clark was a very shrewd man,” Eugene says. “They wouldn’t update his size information. I believe Jason went to a [showcase event] and was listed at 6’1”, 198. Jason was 6’1”, 198 maybe two months in his life. The Braves did an excellent job. They lowballed his size.
--snip--
Says Goetz, “He wouldn’t hit on the field before a game. He usually hit in the cage. Most teams in that [high school] league were not going to pitch to him. So big league teams would send their scouting directors to see him, and he’d hit in the cage, walk three times and ground out in the game, and they’d walk away with a lot of questions.”

With Beau Mills struggling (again) out of the gate in Akron, slipping closer to non-prospect status (if he isn’t already there), and Heyward now sitting on an OPS of .999 after his first 14 games with 4 HR, I find it interesting to look at the whole story in an attempt to understand how Mills finds himself scuffling in Akron as a 23-year-old while Heyward blisters his way through MLB as a 20-year-old.

This is not an attempt to exonerate the Indians’ Front Office from what looks like a mistake (that would be the drafting of Mills, not necessarily passing on Heyward), but…now you know…the rest of the story…
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Now, if you will excuse me for a moment…I’m going to go find out who Joe Haden is.