On the heels of a thrilling victory to split with the White Sox, let me break format here (as I'm not one for short posts or to comment on every little thing that happens with the Indians) to wish you a Happy Carlos Santana Day!
Pull those #41 jerseys out of the back of the closet (and start removing the “MARTINEZ”) and get ready for “The Axe Man”.
Steve Strasburg, consider this to be your warning...
Photo via Mangin Photography
After the Indians finally take one from the Red Sox on the power of the pitching performance of a former Red Sox player and as we all brace for the arrival of Hurricane Stephen on Sunday (that would be Strasburg...and I'll be in the Tribe Social Deck to witness the assumed carnage first-hand), let's get a couple of Tomahawks in the air and send them in Trevor Crowe's direction as we've now seen how he handles objects hurtling towards himself.
After pointing out that the Indians’ starters for the first 3 games against the Red Sox have given up 2 ER in 21 IP (0.85 ERA) and while I pat myself on the back for suggesting that Frank Herrmann (or The Hermannator, as he has been dubbed) make his way to the parent club, let’s get these going...
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While the trade discussions are on in full force and you can't read anything nationally that doesn't include a break-down of which Indians might be going where, I thought that this might be interesting to note:
The Indians are third last in the AL in Extra Base Hit Percentage (at 6.7%), which is basically a measure of how often a plate appearance results in an extra base hit...
The AL Average XBH% for individual players is 7.8%...
The players on the Indians with 100 or more plate appearances that are better than league average in XBH% are:
Austin Kearns – 10.4%
Jhonny Peralta – 9.6%
Rusty Branyan – 9.5%
The BLC – 8.3%
The Indians are tied for second last in the AL in Slugging Percentage at .364...
The AL Average Slugging Percentage for individual players is .409...
The players on the Indians with 100 or more plate appearances that are better than league average in SLG are:
Austin Kearns - .482
The BLC - .466
Rusty Branyan - .463
One Jhonny Peralta is the next highest Indian at .404...
Tell me again, who are those players that the Indians are likely to shop in July from their pop-gun lineup?
The point of this is not to depress anyone further or to throw cold water on any embers of excitement that may still exist out there, but rather to point out how overwhelmingly disappointing the players (both young and old) that were thought to be counted upon to provide some power for this lineup have led us to where we are today. Additionally, the idea that the Indians should look to move the likes of Kearns, Branyan, and Peralta (and they should...don't get me wrong on that point) mean that August and September are actually going to “feature” less offense.
Of course, we all wait with bated breath for the arrival of Carlos Santana, but even his arrival gets to the greater point that there's a possibility that he's simply going to be another young player attempting to make his way in MLB when he arrives. Maybe he has more success than Matt MaTola did (.277 SLG...4 points higher than the since-departed Mark Grudzielanek, who actually did not have an XBH in 119 PA), but inserting him in the lineup is not going to serve as a balm that suddenly solves the offensive offense, particularly when you consider that Kearns, Branyan, and Peralta are likely going to be wearing different uniforms in August.
Some of this can be blamed on the injuries to Sizemore and Cabrera, but even when those two were healthy (and it is still questionable if Grady was), take a look at where the numbers for those two stack up against MLB averages...with the inclusion of another veteran thrown in for good measure:
XBH%
MLB Average – 7.8%
Travis Hafner – 6.9%
Grady Sizemore – 5.7%
Asdrubal Cabrera – 5.4%
SLG
MLB Average - .409
Travis Hafner – .373
Asdrubal Cabrera – .368
Grady Sizemore – .289
Throw in that Matt MaTola had an XBH% of 3.8% (same as Trevor Crowe does right now) and that .277 SLG and you can see pretty clearly why this team is struggling offensively, significantly more than anyone would have thought going into the season. Unfortunately, you also see that the principals that the Indians are depending upon past 2010 as top-to-middle-of-the-lineup presences – Sizemore (assuming health), Cabrera, Hafner (gulp), and MaTola – are each full of question marks and recent struggles to hit for power for each in MLB are very real concerns.
Maybe Carlos Santana comes in and changes the whole dynamic of the offense, with Jason Donald being a spark-plug, with LaPorta and Brantley returning from Columbus with more consistent and better results, and with Cabrera coming off of an injury to re-join Choo in the lineup and to provide some offensive momentum into 2011.
Right now, that's awfully hard to see...
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That being said, the roster machinations that are probably going to go full-bore here over the next 6 weeks continued as Mark Grudzielanek found himself off of the roster, opening the door for somebody named Anderson Hernandez. I'm not going to pretend to care about Anderson Hernandez, as I hope that he ultimately becomes a footnote of the 2010 season as the hope that Donald and Valbuena will be given extended looks at 2B and SS until Cabrera returns may actually be taking hold.
As terrifying as that arrangement might be in light of what is written above, this certainly seems to set the table for a pretty standard lineup for a little while with somewhat obvious replacements as we move towards the end of the year:
C – Marson
1B – Branyan
2B – Valbuena
SS – Donald
3B – Peralta
LF – Kearns
CF – Crowe
RF – Choo
DH – Hafner
Throw your boy Shelley Duncan and my boy Andy Marte in there from time to time as a RH bat, but I could see this lineup going forward for a while with the first move being Santana being called up to replace Marson. After that, the trades will begin and LaPorta will presumably replace Branyan, while Brantley re-emerges to take over CF with Crowe sliding over to (shuddering) LF when Kearns gets traded. Additionally, it's likely that Valbuena finds himself without an everyday position when Cabrera gets healthy...unless he's going to 3B for the day when Peralta is presumably moved.
At least that movement and some new faces will generate something of interest to watch because, right now, this team is getting harder to watch by the day and the near future for the once-promising young offense is looking dimmer and dimmer because of it.
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As for those trade discussions that are likely starting (regardless of what is being said at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario), here's a little snippet from B-Pro's John Perrotto's “On the Beat”, which provides quotes from scouts on various players and this is certainly of interest:
Indians right-hander Fausto Carmona: “He's made a nice little comeback compared to where he was at last year and he's gotten himself into a lot better shape, but he's not the same guy who won 19 games in 2007. His sinker doesn't have that same bite it did back then and he doesn't strike guys out. If I were the Indians, I'd try to trade him right now since he might not rebuild his value any more than this.”
Since that is the view of a scout, perhaps it is interesting to consider in the context of some digging that Fangraphs recently did into his statistical tendencies that tend to back up the idea “he’s not the same guy who won 19 games in 2007”, when they point out the following:
This season, Carmona is having what appears to be a rebirth, as he’s running a 3.53 ERA through his first 11 starts. Looking slightly deeper, we see a similar K/BB rate to Carmona’s great 2007, but the ground ball rate just isn’t there any more. Still, with a ground ball rate as high as Carmona still runs, like his 56.2% rate this season, even a little luck can turn a mediocre season (4.18 FIP, 4.59 xFIP).
These opinions and breakdowns are extremely interesting because of the fact that Fausto is such a unique pitcher, never dependent on high K rates and relying on that sinker to induce groundballs. However, if scouts are saying that his sinker is not what it once was and his stats show that his ground ball rate is falling, what are the Indians to do with Fausto?
Remember, there was that talk of the Blue Jays scouting Fausto and you would think that there would be some serious interest in Carmona, given the…shall we say, flexible nature of his contract with the multiple club options that go all the way to 2014.
However, on a team that is pretty barren of even-mildly accomplished starting pitchers (and that number will shrink when Westbrook goes away), the importance of Carmona – even in the middle of the rotation – cannot be underestimated. I suppose that the argument exists that this team is miles away from contending and they should be selling high on Carmona, but count me as one who thinks that Carmona is on his way to coming back to form.
That form may never return to his v.2007 mastery, but even at a lower level of performance, keeping him around allows the Indians to have at least some semblance of consistency in a very young and inexperienced portion of their team. Additionally, that flexible nature of his contract (with the club options) allows the Indians to have the ability to see what Carmona puts forth from year to year, able to cut the cord if he ever regresses as he did in 2008 and 2009.
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With Tony Sipp's season officially coming off of the tracks recently and with Rafael Perez waking up every morning inexplicably still on the 25-man roster, how about this little nugget – the only LHP currently pitching in Columbus' bullpen is a name you might recognize...Jeremy Sowers.
With Laffey in the Clippers' rotation, Scott Lewis out of the organization, and Mike Gosling retiring, the nearest help for the bullpen – in terms of LHP – other than Sowers is in Kinston. In Akron, there are four LHP (Eric Berger, Kelvin De La Cruz, and Nick Hagadone), all of whom have started games exclusively for the Aeros. Kinston boasts 3 LHP (TJ House, TJ McFarland, and Chris Jones) and only one of them (Jones) is not in the K-Tribe's rotation.
There are 3 LH relievers in Lake County, but if you're looking for a reason that the Indians are so hesitant to part ways with Rafael Perez (and I have been), that's as good as any that I've found as their LH bullpen options above High-A ball are Tony Sipp and Jeremy Sowers.
Debate all you like about where Laffey is most valuable to this team (I’m starting to lean towards the bullpen) and that's not to present an argument to keep Perez around, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians start fishing for some LHP that could provide some bullpen depth beyond...you know, Jeremy Sowers and Chris Jones.
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Speaking of LHP, how about this from Craig Calcaterra as he discusses the idea that the Mariners are scouting the Yankees' farm system as the likelihood of the Bombers being interested in CP Lee is high:
Makes sense for the Mariners to at least be prepared in the event the Yankees realize that they can get one of the best pitchers in baseball to help them fight the Rays for the division and, assuming a long-term deal gets done, help anchor the rotation for the next several years.
Given his reasonable price tag, of course, there may be a lot of teams interested in renting Lee for the playoff stretch. The M's would be wise, however, to try and find a partner who could negotiate with Lee on a long term deal, thus bringing back some real value in exchange for their failed experiment at contending.
Am I the only one who's simply bracing for the inevitabilty of Clifton Phifer in pinstripes, be it this August or next April?
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It being the week of the MLB Draft, I should probably hit on something draft-related, so...after some premature reporting and back-tracking, there's this from SI.com's Jon Heymann, who has been known to break stories having to do with Scott Boras clients:
The Indians are close to a deal for about $1.55 million for second round pick LeVon Washington, a speedy outfielder at Chipola (Fla.) JC. Washington turned down an estimated $1.1 million from Tampa Bay last year. Since the deal with the Indians will be over slot, it won't be approved or official until August.
Obviously, LeVon (take it Elton) is a Boras client and not even pretending to be an expert on the varied players that the Indians took (that's better left to the experts), one thing that I do find interesting is the dollar amount being thrown out there for the Indians LeVon Washington, it being (allegedly) a $1.55M signing bonus.
This is relevant because the #55 overall pick last year received a $712,000 signing bonus and Washington's $1.55M bonus is higher than any 2nd Round Pick money that changed hands last year. In fact, there were only 18 1st Round Picks last year that received more money than the Indians just meted out to Washington, who just happens to be a Scott Boras client.
In case you were wondering, the #5 pick last year (which is where Pomeranz got taken) received a $2,420,000 bonus, something the Indians are sure to exceed with Pomeranz. While this is certainly a promising development on the surface, it should not be forgotten that the Indians HAVE spent money on Draft Picks when you look at signing bonuses from years past…the return on those investments (particularly those from 2003 to 2006 who received signing bonuses of $500K or more) have been another story:
2003
Michael Aubrey - $2,010,000
Brad Snyder - $1,525,000
Adam Miller - $1,025,000
Javier Herrera - $710,000
2004
Jeremy Sowers - $2,475,000
Justin Hoyman - $725,000
Chuck Lofgren - $650,000
2005
Trevor Crowe - $1,695,000
John Drennan - $1,000,000
Stephen Head - $605,000
2006
Wes Hodges - $1,000,000
David Huff - $900,000
Steven Wright - $630,000
Josh Rodriguez - $625,000
Ryan Morris - $500,000
The players are drafted and the Indians seem to be willing to spend money to get them into the fold, now it's a matter of seeing if the players that they're willing to take financial risks on can reap them any sort of reward.
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Finally, since I know that a number of people are heading down to Sunday’s game to see Cy Strasburg, shoot me an e-mail to meet up at some point as I will be down at the Tribe Social Deck (aka “Mom’s Basement) and would like to witness Strasburg with as many similarly-minded Tribe fans as I can.
With news that Matt LaPorta is headed off to Columbus to make room for Andy Marte (apparently fully recovered from the ingrown hair on his stomach), he does so due to losing playing time to Austin Kearns, Rusty Branyan, and recently to Shelley Duncan. Lest anyone forget, two of those players were signed to Minor League deals in the off-season and Branyan was signed to a one-year deal with an option for a second year in a contract that most people found puzzling at the time as it ostensibly placed Branyan at 1B, a position that was thought to be LaPorta’s eventual landing spot on the team.
While LaPorta was coming off of off-season surgeries to his hip and his toe, the intimation that LaPorta would bounce back and forth from 1B to LF while occasionally getting some time at DH as one of the only RH bats on the 25-man roster ruled the day when Spring Training broke. With the “emergence” of Kearns and the continued AB given to Branyan, LaPorta has found himself buried deeper and deeper on Manny Acta’s bench. Certainly his performance when given the chance to play has been a factor as he’s sitting on a line of .218 BA / .290 OBP / .277 SLG / .567 OPS with just 5 extra-base hits in 131 plate appearances.
However, a more disturbing development (other than just a young player, coming off of injury, struggling to succeed in MLB) is at hand here when you look at the frequency in which LaPorta was used, particularly recently...and, by the way, I’m using “played” to mean that he started the game and played a decent portion of it and doesn't include a pinch-hitting appearance:
Games 1-3: Played
Game 4: DNP
Games 5-10: Played
Game 11: DNP
Game 12: Played
Game 13: DNP
Games 14-18: Played
Game 19: DNP
Game 20: Played
Game 21: DNP
Game 22: Played
Game 23 DNP
Game 24-25: Played
Game 26: DNP
Game 27-28: Played
Game 29-31: DNP
Game 32-35 Played
Game 36: DNP
Game 37: Played
Game 38: DNP
Game 39: Played
Game 40: DNP
Game 41: Played
Game 42: DNP
Game 43: Played
Game 44: DNP
Game 45: Played
Game 46: DNP
Game 47: Played
Game 48: DNP
Game 49: Played
Game 50-51: DNP
Game 52: Played
Game 53-54: DNP
Game 55: Played
Just to parse through that, LaPorta has not started consecutive games since mid-May and started 15 of the 27 games in May. At first blush, given LaPorta’s off-season surgeries, one would think that the Indians were simply protecting a still-recovering LaPorta, unable to convince him to go on the DL to fully heal, rest, and rehab. That thought – that perhaps LaPorta’s lingering injuries have prevented him from playing on consecutive games – now looks to be tested as the idea that LaPorta will go to Columbus to get “more consistent at-bats” is the new organizational stance, as stated by Acta:
We just don’t think there are enough at-bats for him…The way that [Austin] Kearns has swung the bat, and the way that we arranged for Russell [Branyan] to play about five games a week, it’s not fair to the kid. We feel like he should be down there playing every day until we can find enough at-bats for him.
Just to be clear, the players that are blocking LaPorta (who was unquestionably struggling) are all over the age of 30, with two of them being signed to minor-league deals in the off-season. Particularly glaring is the fact that Shelley Duncan has started 5 games of the last 14 games while LaPorta has started 6. While results certainly play a role here, Acta continued in his explanation by saying, “we did give him an opportunity at the beginning, and he was getting some at-bats… He needs to go down there, get at-bats, improve and then, later on, if anything happens up here, he can come up and play every day. Right now, with Kearns hitting third, Branyan being one of our threats and Travis [Hafner] being our DH, at-bats are not there for him.”
There’s certainly something to be said for veteran presence in a lineup, but there’s also something to be said for giving consistent AB to players (particularly those that are now 25) that are were highly-touted prospects as long ago as 2 years ago. If this were an aberration or simply an instance where a young Indians player might benefit from taking a break from MLB pitching to gain more confidence, then a benefit of the doubt would be in order. Additionally, if the LaPorta’s injuries prevented him from playing every day, the idea that they were playing him as often as his health would allow and that they wanted him to learn and compete at the Big League level while getting healthy could buy some organizational goodwill.
However, you don’t have to look further than LaPorta’s usage last year when he was called up (only to mire on the Cleveland bench before being sent back down, starting only 12 of the 20 games he was on the 25-man roster in May) to see an instance of a young, potential “core” player who found themselves playing sporadically or not at all, blocked ostensibly by roster filler.
Lest anyone forget, LaPorta didn’t receive consistent AB last May because the Indians were playing Ben Francisco (now a 4th OF in Philly) and Ryan Garko (who recently passed through waivers and is on Texas' AAA team) as the club made one last “effort” in May and June while LaPorta, fresh off of half-of-a-season terrorizing AAA pitchers, waited patiently for his turn. Upon his return, he posted a .273 BA / .315 OBP / .489 SLG / .805 OPS before ending the season with an injury in LF in Boston.
Perhaps Matt LaPorta goes to Columbus and finds his stroke while the Indians “showcase” Austin Kearns and Russell Branyan to net better prospects…but to what end?
At what point will a player like Matt LaPorta (assuming health, which is not a given) be given an extended chance to show that he belongs or that he has the ability to adjust to MLB?
Does the quality of the prospect that the Indians figure to get for either Kearns or Branyan make up for LaPorta missing 2 months of MLB plate appearances if Matt LaPorta truly is still supposed to be the middle-of-the-order RH bat that is so sorely needed in the Indians’ lineup past 2010?
While this story may eventually have a happy ending, with LaPorta re-establishing his confidence and his stroke in AAA while getting fully healthy and able to “play every day” coming back up when Kearns and/or Branyan make their way off of the roster. However, the scary underside of recent history has told us that it is just as likely is that he toils in Columbus as other highly-touted prospects (much younger than him) have done.
With only 329 MLB plate appearances to his credit, the Indians head into mid-June with a Columbus lineup that looks closer to what most people thought the mid-June lineup would look like in Cleveland as the 25-year-old who was supposed to be the near-MLB-ready bat in the Sabathia deal heads down I-71 in an attempt to force his way into a real chance on the parent club, something that has eluded him to date.
As the great (if fictitious) Harry Doyle once said, “In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” While those wins “here and there” are ostensibly all against the Pale Hose (38% of the team’s victories are against the South Siders), a win is a win as the Indians attempt to build some momentum despite all signs pointing to them not being able to do so, what with Sizemore officially out for the year and with the Red Sox getting ready for their only visit to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario tomorrow.
Nevertheless, it is Sunday and while I have some clean-up to do around the yard after the nasty storms that tore through the North Coast early this morning, let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday…
Obviously, the biggest news of the week was that Grady Sizemore (unsurprisingly, if you remember the confusing “symptoms” and “bruises” of his injury and the fact that this is the Indians) did undergo microfracture surgery on his knee, ending the 2010 season for the Indians’ CF. Frankly, this wasn’t all that unexpected and the implications of this are that the Indians will have to hope that the procedure not only fixes what ails Sizemore, but that he will come back at a level of competition close to where he was back in 2008, something that is far from a given.
Even if Sandy Alomar Jr. blithely played off the surgery saying that “the doctors said I’d be out six months…I made it back in three months” and that “If you get that thing done, you should be OK…I played all the way from 1995 until 2007 and I was catching. The guy Steadman is pretty good. He operated on Carlos Beltran, too, and he's just about ready to come back for the Mets” adding his professional opinion that “It’s flip coin, but once you come back you should be solid…Once it becomes calcified, you should be all right.”
That’s all well and good and it makes for a good quote, but given the events concerning injuries of the past few years, I’ll wait for a quote from someone with a DR. in front of his name and not a JR. after his name before buying into Alomar’s “flip coin” theory.
A week and a half ago, I wrote that, “Perhaps it’s the Clevelander in me, but I’m just gripping for the worst, that he’s out for the season and that they ‘hope’ that the surgery solves things so he’s ready for 2011. If that were to happen, let’s hope that the Sizemore knee doesn’t join the Hafner shoulder in body parts that make the early-to-mid-2010s painful for more than just said injured players.” To that end, Todd Dery has a good piece over at WFNY on Hafner and Sizemore and how the regressions and injuries to both have played a major role to put the Indians in their current situation. I’d probably add Carmona to that mix, and if you look at how those 3 players are the ones that were signed to contracts that included guaranteed money that went the furthest into the future (albeit in option years in some cases) with the idea that that troika would be the linchpins for the pitching and offense going forward, you can see very quickly how and why things have fallen on such hard times in the past 2+ years.
Regardless, the news on Sizemore means that the Indians’ OF situation is full of opportunity for players like Kearns (MLB GM’s take note), Crowe (whose next correct read off of the bat will be his first), Shelley Duncan (who I’m oddly intrigued by, which may just be a sign of how desperate this season feels), and eventually Mike Brantley (though that will probably after the All-Star Break to manage his service time and see if he can get into a groove in AAA) to position themselves in the OF mix beyond 2010. Perhaps the idea holds true that one of the spots in the 2011 OF is going to be Brantley’s permanent spot (and does anyone else think that maybe Sizemore comes back as a LF?), but there’s going to be 2 positions up for grabs for the rest of the season and since Matt MaTola has played a total of 7 games in LF in the first 1/3 of the season, one would imagine that Kearns, Crowe, Duncan, Brantley, and maybe some other minor league players will see some time in the outfield grass of the friendly confines this year.
Other than the Sizemore injury and the fallout, sitting on the eve of the MLB Draft (with the Indians holding the #5 pick, the highest they’ve picked since 1992), it makes sense to get into some coverage of it, although I do so with an asterisk in place that I have zero knowledge about most (if not all) of these players and the actual MLB Draft system holds my interest more than projecting out 18-year-olds.
That being said, here are a couple of player preview pieces from IPI that break down the available position players and pitchers that might become the Indians’ top selection. Also, here are a few mock drafts, with one from Kevin Goldstein at B-Pro that has the Indians taking Ole Miss LHP Drew Pomeranz, as does Keith Law, while MLB Bonus Baby and My MLB Draft have the Indians taking Florida Gulf Coast LHP Chris Sale.
Pomeranz and Sale are just names to me at this point, so again I will say that I have little to no knowledge to impart on these two (or any other draft prospects), though it does strike me that Pomeranz is 6-5, 231 and Sale is 6-6, 172, meaning that if either is chosen, it would go along the lines of pitcher acquisition that we've seen recently with Justin Masterson (6-6, 250), Nick Hagadone (6-5, 230), Bryan Price (6-4, 210), Carlos Carrasco (6-3, 215), Jason Knapp (6-5, 235), and Alex White (6-3, 200).
Whether the Indians are thinking about simply building up the best intramural basketball team or that they’re continuing this newfound strategy of getting these big hard-throwers with the idea that they’ll be able to fill their rotation and bullpen with some mix of them remains to be seen.
Of course, leave it to the Indians to end up with the 5th pick in a draft that Pete Gammons (in a great piece that deserves a full read) says “is a three-player showcase -- Harper, Machado, Taillon,” adding in this wonderful quote from an NL GM, “After that, there’s virtually no difference between the fourth and 44th picks. So in many ways, it’s really a scouts’ Draft. If your scouts are really good, you will be fine, except that it will be expensive.”
If there really is “virtually no difference between the fourth and the 44th picks”, remember how the Red Sox have 3 of those top 44 picks and the Angels have 5 of those top 44 picks?
Really, the most interesting bit that I’ve seen regarding the draft came up in a piece from the print edition of this week’s SI, in which Tom Verducci takes some time away from analyzing the potential picks to discuss the merits and flaws of the current system in place:
Despite the rising costs of signing high picks, more and more franchises are realizing that the draft has become the most cost-efficient way to build a contender. That means that larger-market teams are putting more effort—and money—into the draft than ever before. “The media attention is directly tied to the fact that there’s a greater understanding of the importance of young players,” Indians general manager Mark Shapiro says. “And the draft is clearly the single greatest option to infuse [an organization with] young talent at one time. The big markets began to emphasize young talent. And frankly, the media goes where the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets go.”
--snip--
Boston, for instance, embarked on a more aggressive draft strategy beginning in 2006, when it started dangling first-round money at later-round draft picks. (Often those players sank in the draft because they were “signability” risks: low-budget teams with early picks knew they couldn't meet the players' salary demands.) From 2006 to '09, the Red Sox handed out bonuses between $500,000 and $2 million to nine players taken in the third round or later. (The Yankees also signed nine in that price range in that span.) On one Class A team alone this year, Boston has five players who signed for at least half a million dollars.
Looking past the point that the Indians’ GM (whose been taken to the woodshed recently for the failure of the team to build through the draft) was the one who went on the record to say that “the draft is clearly the single greatest option to infuse young talent at one time”, his follow-up to that gets to the point of the draft that’ been bothering me for quite a while.
Verducci hits on it perfectly as he illustrates the way that large-market teams (the ones with the larger margin of error) have taken a new approach to the draft and, by exploiting another open door made wider by the virtue of their revenue streams, have turned the draft on its collective head. Just to keep with Verducci’s example, the Red Sox are using every advantage available to them and are by no means skirting the rules in place, but look at those last two sentences again - “From 2006 to ‘09, the Red Sox handed out bonuses between $500,000 and $2 million to nine players taken in the third round or later...On one Class A team alone this year, Boston has five players who signed for at least half a million dollars.”
That’s for players from the 3rd round or later that got those big paydays and does not take into consideration Boston giving guys like Casey Kelly (1st Round Pick in 2008) a $3M signing bonus as the 30th pick in the draft, which qualifies as the 7th highest signing bonus in the 2008 draft. It also discounts how much over-slot the Red Sox are paying some of these players, as they paid a $2M signing bonus to Ryan Westmoreland, the 172nd pick of that same 2008 draft. In doing so, Westmoreland netted the 11th biggest signing bonus of the draft (tied with the #7 overall pick, Yadier Alonso) as a 5th Round Pick. Thus, in the 2008 draft, the Red Sox drafted and signed 2 of the top 11 picks (when they had one 1st Round Pick – the 30th in the draft in which they picked Kelly), if you’re going to use signing bonuses as a reasonable measuring stick of worth.
That’s not to say that this strategy is always going to work in the long run, as Kelly is a 20-year-old who has decided that he’s going to become a full-time pitcher (which was the Sox plan all along) and Westmoreland went through a scary brain surgery just this past March, but even if those players don’t pan out, the Red Sox have the deep pockets (and more highly-paid draft picks) to fill the void.
Just to put some hard numbers on this, take a look at the amount of bonus money that's been paid out by the Red Sox and by the Indians since that 2006 date that Verducci uses:
Indians 2006 - $5,349,500
1 player receiving more than $1M and 4 more players receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2006 - $7,772,000
2 players receiving more than $1M and 5 more players receiving more than $500K
Indians 2007 - $2,271,800
1 player receiving more than $1M
Red Sox 2007 - $3,505,500
0 players receiving more than $1M and 4 players receiving more than $500K
Indians 2008- $3,962,000
2 players receiving more than $1M and 2 more players receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2008 - $7,999,000
2 players receiving more than $2M and 2 more players receiving more than $500K
Indians 2009 - $3,853,000
1 player receiving more than $1M (Alex White, $2.25M) and 1 more player receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2009 - $5,983,400
2 players receiving more than $1M and 3 more players receiving more than $500K
While judging the results of these 4 drafts are still wildly premature to accurately judge (although as Adam Van Arsdale of LGT adroitly asserts, the results of the last 2 Brad Grant-run drafts for the Tribe have been more promising than the John Mirabelli-run drafts prior to that), it brings home the notion that the larger-market teams like the Red Sox are starting to figure out another angle that they can exploit.
While the difference in the total dollar amount spent doesn’t look too large, in terms of MLB payrolls, but as an AL GM told Verducci about the draft for the referenced article, “It’s the most cost-efficient thing we do in baseball. You hit with one or two picks [a year], and it makes your organization.” If you’re keeping track at home, the Red Sox have given 6 players signing bonuses of $1M or more in the past 4 drafts (the Indians have 5 players with signing bonuses of $1M in the same timeframe) and have paid 14 players a signing bonus of $500K or more, while the Indians have given 7 players between $500K and $1M in the same timeframe. While the 20 players that the Red Sox have given more than $500K to doesn’t look THAT much larger than the Indians’ 12 players that have received more than $500K, realize that the draft is a game of attrition and the more players that are given the opportunity to hit increases the likelihood that one (or more) of them do.
Go back to that quote that “you hit with one or two picks [a year], and it makes your organization” and you see the prudence of what teams like the Red Sox are attempting to do, as the intent is to hit on three to four picks a year. That may seem obvious, but the underlying strategy is to ensure that not only their pipeline remain full with young, cheap talent, but that the overflow talent can be used to acquire MLB talent from teams looking to shed payroll and add those young, talented players into the mix. As I wrote nearly a year-and-a-half ago, “the commodity of young, under-contract-for-the-foreseeable future players has become increasingly important in baseball” and there’s no greater evidence than that than the Victor Martinez trade of last year.
In netting Justin Masterson ($510,000 as a 2nd Round Pick in 2006), Hagadone($571,500 as a sandwich pick in 2007), and Bryan Price ($849,000 as a 1st Round Pick in 2008), they basically added 3 arms who had already been paid their signing bonuses and had proven that their high draft position was justified by performing in the Minors. The Red Sox spent nearly $2M to sign those three players and used the 18 club-controlled years (combined for the 3 players) as a sort of currency to add Martinez to their lineup.
The practice is likely to become more commonplace as the mid-to-small-market teams begin their rebuilds with an eye on young, cost-controlled talent who may have been high draft picks with large signing boneses. When a team like Arizona is ready to tear-down (and the linked piece that relays that they are is extremely interesting to compare what's happened on the North Coast and in the desert since 2007 in terms of injuries, regressions, and young players not developing as it was once thought that they would), teams like the Red Sox have the most sought-after currency in MLB – young, cheap talent whose signing bonuses have already been paid to them.
Now, teams like the Red Sox truly sit in the catbird’s seat, where they can pull the players that they truly want to keep off of the table (as they did with Buchholz last year) and give other teams a list of intriguing talents (even if they’re the second-tier of Red Sox prospects) for the team to choose from. Teams like the Indians remain beholden to the teams that have spent more money in the draft (though they do still need to pick the right players) as the only place to make up for a dry pipeline is to pick through the farm systems of teams that have young talent, but aren’t necessarily harvesting that talent for their own parent club.
Thus, the Indians have had to make up for their drafting deficiencies (although here’s a fascinating piece from Baseball Prospectus that works out how each team in MLB would be performing if they were working with only the players they drafted and signed as amateurs...and it has the “No Turnover” Indians compiling an average record of 88-74 from 2007 to 2009, atop the AL Central just 1 game behind both the Red Sox and Yankees in the greater AL landscape), is to pick through other organizations’ farm systems in an attempt to augment their own drafted or internationally signed players to create that “window of contention”.
That’s where the 2010 season is, watching the products of other farm systems combine with the Indians’ own products as the Tribe is now squarely coming to terms with the fact that many of their 1st Round Picks (who did get those big signing bonuses) are nothing more than marginal MLB players, something referenced in the SI piece when Yankees' vice president of scouting Damon Oppenheimer says, “But has there been longevity and impact? You can say guys touched the big leagues, but is that all that you're looking for from a first-round pick?”
On the eve of the MLB Draft and the 5th Round pick…let’s hope not.
On the heels of what will certainly be dubbed “the worst call in baseball history” by some talking head in the coming 24-hour news cycle, let’s certainly give Armando Galarraga his due as he completely flummoxed an Indians’ lineup en route to what should have been a perfect game. While the focus will be on Jim Joyce and whether instant replay should be introduced into close plays on the bases, as an Indians’ fan, was anyone else sitting there, inning after inning, dreading that this perfect game was going to happen?
Of course, seeing history is seeing history, but the Indians’ lineup was so thoroughly overmatched by Galarraga (who has spent more time in AAA than MLB this year) and the night was devoid of a hard-hit ball by an Indian until Grudzielanek’s blast in the 9th (and you had to think that the Perfecto was coming when Austin Jackson made that catch). The Tribe sent pop-up after nubber after softly hit line drive out into the field as Galarraga provided the pitches that perfectly summarize the Indians’ ineptitude at the plate to date this year – no rhythm, no life, no feeling that the team is ready to break out.
Watching the game, was there ever a hitter that strode to the box that made you think that “this is the guy” or “this guy will get on base”?
For me, that feeling never came, right up to the final out…and the one after that.
Nevertheless, while the 2010 Indians will not become a footnote in history (at least tonight), let’s get those Tomahawks down the first base line to see if Jim Joyce is paying attention yet…
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Lost in the debate over whether Justin Masterson should remain a starter, how in the world Dave Huff isn’t going to miss a start after taking a batted ball off of his head, hoping (beyond hope) that the Faustastic One has returned (ERA now at 3.53 with no BB in 8 IP tonight), and evaluating Jake Westbrook’s trade value (more on that in a bit) is the fact that Mitch Talbot has quietly put together a tremendous start to the 2010 season.
While I remain baffled as to how The Fury has succeeded (what with the low K rates, the nearly 1-to-1 K/BB rate, the BABIP that has risen without appreciably worse results, and some sort of preternatural ability to get out of jams), Talbot has clearly been the most pleasant surprise on a team in need of them.
Looking at Talbot’s body of work to date, I realized something – Mitch Talbot (all 26 years of him) is still technically a Rookie and (while end-of-the-season awards in MLB are just about the most useless “achievements” I can think of) Mitch Talbot actually has a legitimate shot at consideration for American League Rookie of the Year.
As I said, being named AL ROY doesn’t really earn you all that much (paging Ron Kittle, Bob Hamelin, Angel Berroa, Ben Grieve, and Pat Listach), but in a season in which Indians’ fans need something to cheer for, taking on the cause of “The Fury for AL ROY” is as good as any these days.
Perusing through the other candidates, there’s no question that Texas’ Neftali Feliz has certainly made a case out of the Rangers’ bullpen and Talbot’s former Durham Bull teammate Wade Davis has performed admirably in the Tampa rotation. The early “lock”, Austin Jackson, has come back to Earth a little bit (and I should note that Jackson has struck out 57 times in 49 games for the Kitties), though he figures to stay in the mix, and his teammate Brennan Boesch figures to get some attention from the voters who haven’t learned that RBI is not the definitive measure of a hitter. The Orioles’ Brian Matusz may get some consideration as he is a highly-touted prospect, although his numbers pale in comparison to that of Talbot.
And that’s the amazing thing when you put Talbot’s numbers thus far in the context of all AL starters and not just Rookies (and I’ll include the meaningless “wins” stat because that’s what BBWAA voters will consider) this year:
Wins – 6 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, tied for 4th among all AL starters)
ERA – 3.78 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, 27th among all AL starters)
ERA+ - 105 (2nd among AL Rookie Starters, 31st among all AL starters)
WHIP – 1.29 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, 25th among all AL starters)
As an interesting sidenote, since Dave Righetti won the AL ROY in 1981 (when he was still a starter), there has been one starting pitcher that has won the award – Justin Verlander in 2006.
Can Talbot keep up this pace?
I’m the wrong guy to ask, because I’ve been throwing him under the bus from the time the Indians added him for Kelly Shoppach. However, if he can keep up some semblance of this pace, he may get a look at becoming the first Indians’ Rookie of the Year since Sandy Alomar won the award in 1990.
Of course, once upon a time in a galaxy far, far away, Jody Gerut was the AL Rookie Hitter of the Year for The Sporting News, showing how fleeting success can be (particularly for an older rookie), but Talbot’s achievements thus far are nothing to scoff at and as long as he continues to bring The Fury to the mound every 5 days, the Indians may have themselves some of the rotational depth going forward that is so sorely needed.
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Speaking of rookies, the clamoring for ‘Los Santana looks to be reaching a fevered pitch and this assumption that Santana will cure all that ails the Indians’ scuffling offense is getting some roots in the ground. While I’m just as (if not more) excited for Santana’s debut, perhaps there needs to be a quick realization that there are quite a bit of expectations being placed on the shoulders of a guy that has yet to see a MLB pitch.
With that in mind, some hack over at Beyond the Box Score made the comparison to last year’s “Super-2” catcher, Matt Wieters, who was supposed to carry the Orioles’ offense on his back…something he has yet to do, even 2 months into this season. That’s not to say that enthusiasm over Santana’s arrival should be tempered to the point that we shouldn’t be excited about him, only that some perspective is needed if (or maybe when) Santana goes through some adjustment periods in MLB.
As a quick aside, I’ve seen some momentum on calling the Indians’ Carlos Santana “Smooth”, probably in reference to the song that the guitarist Carlos Santana and Matchbox 20’s Rob Thomas battered over our heads back in 1999. If you have any memory of that song being played ad nauseum for what seemed like 3 years, you would give great pause before relating this song to anything that you actually liked…or will potentially root for.
While the name “Smooth” is not bad for any baseball player, the mere idea that the impetus for said nickname came from the Top 40 garbage that Carlos Santana (the guitarist) has evolved into producing (and “Smooth” was really the first foray into that) makes me ill. What’s next – using some song from Creed or Nickelback to nickname these players? While that may be going overboard a little (and it really isn’t), the suggestion that Santana (the catcher) should be called “Smooth” because…because…because “Smooth” was the biggest hit put out by Santana (the guitarist) is just lazy.
If we’re going to “honor” the guitarist or at least bring up the coincidence that the Indians’ top prospect shares a name with a legendary guitarist, can’t we get a little more creative on this?
How about “The Axe Man” or “The Axe Murderer”, or honor a time in which Carlos Santana was putting out legitimately great songs, like bestowing a nickname such as “Black Magic” for “Black Magic Woman”?
Remember when there was a movement to refer to Matt MaTola as “White Thunder”? This is wildly premature, but what about the idea that the middle of the Indians’ lineup could be anchored by “Black Magic” and “White Thunder”?
Actually, perhaps the evolution of Matt LaPorta from “White Thunder” to “Matt MaTola” (or “Fat Matt MaTola”, if you prefer) should serve as a lesson that glossing these players before we’ve even seen them play in the Big Leagues is premature.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go see what looks better on the back of the #41 jersey I’m about to order – “The Axe Man” or “Black Magic”…
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By now you know that the MLB Amateur Draft is coming up next Monday and that the Indians have the 5th pick in the Draft on the “merits” of their 2009 season. I’m not going to claim to know anything about any of the prospective draft picks or assert that “this guy” is better than “that guy” as…well, it just doesn’t interest me.
What does interest me is this:
2010 Draft Picks
Cleveland – #5, #55
Anaheim - #18, #29, #30, #37, #40
Boston – #20, #36, #39, #57
No, that’s for real…
Because of the Supplemental Draft Picks for Type A and Type B Free Agents that are assigned to teams that lose Type A and Type B Free Agents, the Angels will have made 5 picks in the top 40 before the Indians get to make their second selection and the Red Sox will have 4 picks in the top 57 while the Indians will have just 2 picks in the top 55.
The Red Sox and Angels will receive these picks on the basis of the teams losing Chone Figgins and John Lackey (to the Red Sox coincidentally) and Jason Bay and Billy Wagner. If you don’t remember, the Red Sox acquired Wagner from the Mets by picking up the remainder of his $3.3M salary and giving them 2 non-prospects, all of which netted them the #20 and #39 picks.
Truthfully, that #5 pick is the most important of all of the picks as it gives the Indians the opportunity to pick in the top 5 for the first time since 1992 (when they took Paul Shuey #2), but given what has been written particularly about the Red Sox consistently paying their draft picks with “overslot” money, isn’t this just perpetuating the imbalance that pervades the league?
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Since news like that can drive one to drink, I’ll provide a quick update (whether you’re interested or not) in the selection of “Drink of the Summer” as we have now passed the arbitrary Memorial Day date for a choice to be made.
When questioning most of my friends, many told me that they had the perfect solution…which was to “just drink gin” and while that certainly will not be dismissed out of hand, the presence of a 4-month-old who still wakes up at night precludes the enjoyment of gin on much more than a periodic basis.
Thus, we’re back to finding a “Drink of the Summer” with the caveat that I’m looking for a beer. After trying out Magic Hat #9, Troegs’ Dreamweaver, enjoying Yuengling up in Chautauqua (which I cannot get in Ohio), and testing Founders’ Red Rye IPA, I’m still undecided.
If I had to pick a leader in the clubhouse, it would probably be Troegs’ Dreamweaver, but I could still be swayed. For now, I’ll enjoy the search and decision while keeping the High Life (which is the perpetual “Drink of the Summer”) in the icebox.
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On the trade front (and it pains me to address this stuff at the beginning of June), let me just point out some pertinent numbers that can be viewed and utilized by 29 of the GM’s around baseball if they so choose:
Jake Westbrook – Last 5 starts
3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 16 K, 8 BB in 34 2/3 IP with a .690 OPS against
Jhonny Peralta – Last 35 games
.286 BA / .353 OBP / .474 SLG / .827 OPS with 12 2B, 2 3B, and 3 HR
Russell Branyan – Last 19 games
.266 BA / .314 OBP / .625 SLG / .939 OPS with 2 2B and 7 HR
As for the other moveable parts going into this Trading Season (and Mark Grudz and Jamey Wright need not apply), Austin Kearns, whose numbers have dropped like a stone as he has 4 extra-base hits in his last 21 games, and Kerry Wood, who has allowed runs in half of his appearances and is the owner of a .999 OPS against…well, sadly…I have nothing.
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Finally, whether you’ve heard or not, Cy (or is it Sandy) Strasburg looks to be making his 2nd MLB start (against what looks to be Dave Huff, assuming the rotation stays intact) at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario on Sunday, June 13th.
While that bit of information is certainly exciting (and needed, given the Indians’ attendance to date), here’s hoping that Strasburg’s start is ruined by Carlos Santana (the catcher) making his Cleveland debut for the Erie Warriors in front of a full house of fans who have all taken the time to remove the “MARTINEZ” lettering out of their #41 jerseys while they cheer on their new hero, “The Axe Man”…or is it “Black Magic”?
After dropping 9 of their last 11 with their starting pitcher on his way to the hospital (for what would turn out to be precautionary tests, thankfully), the Indians’ Saturday fate looked grim, not an unsurprising fact given that the combined salaries for the Indians’ lineup (approximately $8.4M) represented just a little over a quarter over what the Yankees’ 3B will earn ($32M) and a just over a third over what their the Bombers’ starting pitcher for the game will earn ($23M) this season.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the loss column as the Indians’ youngsters battered Sabathia for 5 runs in 6 IP and overcame some dreadful pitching from the bullpen from Aaron Laffey (way to make your case for the rotation, Bulldog) to eventually take more shine off of Justin Chamberlain’s apple (without the help of midges) en route to a 13-10 victory.
It was the kind of game that makes a season like the one that the Indians are currently in the middle of marginally better, where the future looks brighter than it has in weeks. With extra-base hits coming off of the bats of Lou Marson (finally looking comfortable at the plate…just in time to head to AAA), Jason Donald (4 doubles, 1 HR in his last 5 games), and Matt MaTola (who actually looked like he wasn’t limping for the first time going around the bases), the offensive future looks a little clearer…even if it was just for a day.
That being said, since there’s really not that much that is news-worthy about the Indians in the here-and-now (and thank goodness that Huff has received a clean bill of health), perhaps we’ll go a different direction on this Laziest of Sundays, what with tomorrow being Memorial Day and with me about to load up the Family Truckster for a couple of days up in Lake Chautauqua.
Sure, there are some interesting things out there regarding the trade market (and the Trading Deadline is 2 months away so…get ready for 8 weeks of this excitement) with Jayson Stark saying that the Blue Jays are scouting Fausto (which could just be a team trying to find a under-club-control, youngish starter that they could get on the cheap) and with Ken Rosenthal listing out some possible destinations for Tribesman, in an interesting piece that projects that Philly might be interested in both Wood AND Westbrook, that the Indians might have an interest in keeping Westbrook around (something I still haven’t really considered and thus don’t really have an opinion on), as well as reporting that:
The team is willing to include cash in a trade to land better prospects, just as it did in the Casey Blake-for-Carlos Santana deal in ’08. The high salaries of Wood and Westbrook increase the likelihood of such exchanges.
This last bit of news is good to hear, though I’ll be interested to see how that plays out as attendance is still abysmal into July and as apathy reigns supreme on the North Coast regarding the team. All told, there’s going to be PLENTY of time to dissect which teams might have an interest in Wood, Westbrook, Kearns, Branyan, Peralta, and Grudzielanek as well as 2 months of performance by each of those players to (hopefully) build up trade value.
Additionally, there’s going to be quite a bit of time to assess the trades that have already taken place, and SI.com’s Jon Heymann has an interesting nugget when discussing Cliff Lee’s trade value:
He’s been traded twice in the past year already, and while the acquiring teams unloaded a total of seven decent or better prospects, even Lee couldn’t bring an upper echelon prospect such as Clay Buchholz last year, a straight-up request that was flat rejected. “Teams are placing significant value on their young players,” one AL GM said.
Regardless of how that makes you feel about Lou Marson, Donnie Baseball (an attempt at finding a nickname for Jason Donald) and the like, let’s go in a different direction this week as the most interesting work on the web this week come from some of our favorite writers, both of whom happen to be Cleveland natives.
While most of the analysis and reporting this week covers ground that’s been tread over for the past year in this very space (is Fausto back?, should Masterson be a reliever?, what’s wrong with LaPorta?, etc.), let’s all get on the couch to examine our psyche here as we seem to be sitting at Ground Zero (Saturday’s game still considered) of another rebuild/reload/whatever with no guarantee that it will be any more successful (or even as successful) as the one that just finished.
As the team operates with the odds stacked against the Tribe, and in an environment in which they need to be both lucky and smart (by the by, here’s a great piece from a Padres’ minority owner that explains the situation both rationally and in easy-to-understand language that should be required reading for anyone that’s quick to simply bash the Indians for this precipitous fall), we follow and support the team with the knowledge that the players that we’re currently placing our hopes in for that next window of contention won’t be around once they hit Free Agency.
It’s a cycle that I’m already preparing The DiaTot for, as much as the notion makes my stomach turn. To his credit, he’s already made the statement that once Grady’s not on the Indians anymore, he’ll just pick another Indians’ player to be his favorite…which suggests a greater grasp of the current climate in MLB than most paying customers at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
On top of those built-in disadvantages for the Indians within MLB, which played a part in the deconstruction of the team (along with the pipeline of talent running dry, key injuries, and crucial mistakes made in FA), most of us Indians’ fans bear the cross of being sports fans, in general, from Cleveland, an identity that is coming into clearer focus as a certain native Northeast Ohioan holds the city hostage.
It’s an identity that was articulated recently in an incredible piece at Deadspin from native Clevelander Scott Raab, who normally plies his craft for Esquire (and here’s something he wrote about Shaq that just appeared in my mailbox), as he examines his relationship with Cleveland sports, crystallized in the context of his “repentance”:
…Being a lifelong Indians fan transcends any of the whining from Wrigley Field or, once upon a time, Red Sox Nation. Pussies. For most of my life, the Indians had neither stars nor hope—only agony. With apologies to Bernard Malamud, to be a Cleveland fan is to suffer, and to suffer is to be a Cleveland fan.
--snip--
One of the worst parts of being a devoted fan of any crappy team, in any sport, is the sense that you’re truly only rooting for the laundry, that the players in the uniform bearing the name of your town don’t care half as much as you do. Nor should they. They may be men playing a boy’s game, but they’re also men at work at a job defined by its naked difficulty. Their every act is literally numbered, and those numbers—and, in a fan’s eyes, the players themselves—are public property. Ultimately, though, they owe us nothing beyond their best effort.
And us? I don't know that fans owe players much of anything. Then again, I'm from Cleveland: I've been suffering all my life. I always figured that since I bought my tickets with my mother’s hard-earned money, I was entitled to do pretty much whatever I wanted at the games. And though I realize now how wrong I was, that’s merely an intellectual construct that still gets swept away by the flood of feeling that defines my fandom. If you put me, Jose Mesa, and John Elway in a room with a loaded gun, I’m the only one who’s walking out alive.
While Raab paints a pretty accurate picture of what my life has been like as a Cleveland fan “rooting for the laundry” (or at least attempting to do so), native South Euclidean Joe Posnanski presents another angle of Cleveland fandom in a piece about being wrong from Slate in an interview with fellow native Clevelander Kathryn Schulz:
What I have found about Cleveland fans—and certainly it’s been true of me—is that at some point you know you’re going be wrong, so you try to play tricks with yourself. You say, “Well, I know they’re going to lose today,” in an effort to be wrong in the other direction. The expectation level of a Cleveland fan is so filled with heartbreak that at some point you just try to turn the thing in your favor. But in Cleveland, it never works, because if you say “I know they’re going to lose today,” you are going to be right, and there’s no joy at all in that kind of rightness.
Certainly, both of these pieces have a bit of the doom-and-gloom feel that I try to avoid here, but what’s amazing is that Raab accurately describes the feeling that most Clevelanders are feeling about the Indians, particularly after watching our former aCCe take some time off from counting his money to take on the Indians yesterday (“to suffer is to be a Cleveland fan”) and Posnanski nails what we’re seeing play out this summer, as the city seems to be steeling itself that LeBron James is going to leave.
As Posnanski says, “you try to play tricks with yourself” by almost projecting the worst that can happen so you’re prepared if (or is it when) that worst-case-scenario emerges. If you don’t think that’s what happening with LeBron, then you haven’t heard the arguments that “he’s never won anything here” or that “he gave up on the team” as people are steeling themselves against disappointment. You expect the worst and if something good happens, you’re ecstatic about it. But if the worst-case scenario comes to fruition…well, you’ve mentally prepared yourself for it.
Truthfully, I’ve always tried to avoid that thinking with the Indians, whether it be the irrational excitement that I have for Jason Donald or my hope against hope that Fausto v.2007 lurks somewhere under that hat (you know, the one with the sticker still on the underside of the brim)…and those are the things that I feel in a down year.
Regardless, that optimism and that hope has a tendency to set myself up for some monumental disappointment, even if you just put it in the context of Game 5 of the 2007 ALCS, when I met friends at Local Heroes before the game and (since most of us were in college in 1995 and 1997 and had never experienced being in Cleveland for a World Series) vowed that we meet up after the game (presupposing a victory and a WS berth) to celebrate together as we had never done in the past.
Well, we all know what happened in Game 5 and thereafter, but I was with one of those friends at a wedding recently and we were reminiscing about that night…something that we had always avoided. Since we never met up after the game, I told him about the absolutely silent Rapid ride from Tower City to the West Side that The DiaBride and I endured in a packed Rapid car. Despite 2 games remaining in the series (and the Indians still up 3-2), the worry was palpable, even for a pie-eyed optimist like me.
My friend told me that he left the ballpark that night knowing that the ALCS was over, that CC was going to be traded the following year, and that the Indians’ opportunity had been missed. While some of that may be embellished (he’s not that prescient, regardless of what he says), it goes back to that point that Posnanski makes as we’re programmed to expect the worst…which is often what happens to us, if you’ll remember the FOX graphic – “At Least You Still Have LeBron” – as CC and Lee squared off in Game 1 of the World Series.
Now, with the Indians at the bottom of the AL Central and in light of the consternation across the Gateway Plaza, I am reminded of a piece that I wrote back in the late summer of 2007, when the Cavs were headed to the NBA Finals and the Indians were steamrolling their way to the playoffs:
The Cleveland sports teams are trending upwards and they’re doing it together. This ascent is not automatic nor is it immediate. Growing pains and disappointment promise to litter the road. But, for once, the road represents an ascent, not a descent into the mediocrity and indifference, to which we’ve grown accustomed.
None of the Cleveland teams are taking that “one last chance” or trying to slip through the closing window, as we saw the Pistons attempt and are currently watching the Yankees struggle to do. They’re all on the rise (to borrow from the Cavaliers' playoff motto) and show no signs of taking a precipitous, unexpected tumble back to mediocrity.
Now, less than 3 years later, it looks myopic and absurd in light of what’s happened since then and what looks to be happening. What’s happened since that time (at least in terms of the Indians) was encapsulated recently by Eric Wedge, who told The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington last week that “Key guys got hurt and then there was the economics of it all. If we could have kept it together, I still believe we could have been one helluva team. It's just tough to ride that all out in that market.”
While that description of what transpired represents a cursory look at everything that went wrong (and having probably gone too far in depth into what did go wrong already), we find ourselves about to go into June watching a bad baseball team with no guarantee that the current group of youngsters are going to congeal and mature simultaneously, which represents the hope. Thus, fully realizing the flaws within the game and our inherent “Cleveland-ness”, what are we doing here?
The Indians are in a rebuilding/reloading/whatever year and while this regime proved that they are able to build a contender quickly (go look at the makeup of the 2003 team, then the 2005 and 2007 teams), they’ve also proven that the house of cards that they built in short order can come down just as quickly, if not quicker.
If we’re at the 2002/2003 stage with this current team and contention is a few years off (and that certainly looks to be the case now), what is it that brings me back to watch this team and let it occupy so much of my time?
This may be a topic that’s been discussed, but in the context of the last month of Indians’ baseball in particular, why do I allow myself to love a team that operates within the confines of an imbalanced system, one in which they’re unlikely to ever consistently produce a contender?
Why?
Because it is baseball and, more accurately, because it is Indians’ baseball.
Because looking at that 2003 team and the 2005 team gives one pause in terms of what can happen when young talent congeals and puts a team on the winning track in short order. That’s not to say that the turnaround will be identical, but it does throw water on the argument that the Indians are on the verge of another 40-year walk through the desert that some people seem to think.
Yes, “to suffer is to be a Cleveland fan” and my college friends (not from Cleveland) deride me for bringing up my sons as fans of the Indians, leading them into a life that promises to be full of heartbreak and disappointment. Most Clevelanders will play that “worst-case scenario” game that Posnanski describes so as not to put their hearts into it, for fear of more heartache, but I refuse to fall into that chasm. Perhaps it is because I haven’t yet experienced the full force of Cleveland sports yet (though it certainly feels like it) that I haven’t grown jaded and skeptical…but I just don’t see the enjoyment in that approach to following sports.
Ultimately, it is just a game and a pleasant diversion and it is “rooting for laundry”, but I want to have that moment of “I went through the tough times” if this thing ever turns into a championship. I want to see that light at the end of the tunnel and I want it to shine brightly upon my face. Whether that means that I go irrationally looking for it, getting there is half the fun and I’d rather pick up my half-full glass and enjoy a game that was meant to be enjoyed, as difficult as that is in the current economic environment and with the events on the North Coast of the past 2+ years.
A game like Saturday brings into perfect focus why following Indians’ baseball remains a part of my life. It may just be the little victories that look hollow in hindsight (and please click on that link, if only for the pictures), but it makes the light of hope burn bright, even if that light is only a flicker.
This season was coming (and more like it may be on its heels) and a season like this causes some reflection as to why we Indians’ fans subject ourselves to this suffering, why we set ourselves up for the pending disappointment and heartbreak.
For someone like me, who got inexplicably hooked on baseball rooting for Pat Tabler, Brook Jacoby, and Cory Snyder, when Sports Illustrated cruelly gave me my first dose of hope that was destined to be dashed, that answer isn’t that hard. For others, it may not be that easy and the 2010 season certainly looks to be the one that will test the mettle (and the patience) of the greater fanbase.
However, on a Sunday morning, with the sun shining on the North Coast on a holiday weekend and with the Erie Warriors having defeated their former aCCe in the Bronx because of the contributions of some of the youngsters who may (or may not) play a role in what is hoped to be the next contender on the shores of Lake Erie, let’s take a moment to simply enjoy being Indians’ fans (as difficult as that my be at certain times this season) having knocked off the big, bad Yankees.
The rest of the season figures to be painful and the next couple of seasons may follow suit; but for a day, things are sunnier in Wahooland and, really, isn’t that why we keep coming back as Clevelanders, as baseball fans, to this game that we all love?
Remember a couple of weeks ago, when the Indians took 2 of 3 from Kansas City and it was thought (prematurely, I might add) that they might be able to fatten up on some of the bottom-feeders of MLB prior to the team heading off for the Bronx?
From that time, the team has gone 4-9 (and that includes taking 2 of 3 in Baltimore) against the Orioles, Royals, Rays, Reds, and White Sox, lost their starting SS for 2 months, their starting CF for who knows how long (more on that in a minute), and are about to head to Yankee Stadium for a 4-game set.
All told, things are not looking good for the Erie Warriors and brighter days don’t look to be on the horizon…and with the events of the last week firmly establishing the Indians’ current place in the MLB pecking order (and it’s not looking down at anyone), let’s get those Tomahawks in the air…
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In case you haven’t noticed (and The DiaTot has, when he asks me every morning how Grady’s knee is feeling), the cloak-and-dagger culture around Indians’ injuries continues as most indications are that Sizemore’s “knee injury” could be something much larger and could have been something that’s been lingering since the beginning of the season.
Leading off, we’ll go to the essential source for all things Indians, Mr. Anthony Castrovince:
Grady Sizemore has consulted with the Indians' team doctors regarding the left knee injury that has landed him on the 15-day disabled list. This week, he's getting a second opinion. And a third.
Sizemore is visiting doctors in Vail, Colo., and New York this week to determine the best course of action with regard to treatment of the deep bone bruise he suffered in the knee. Head athletic trainer Lonnie Soloff told reporters last week that surgical intervention is a possibility.
The Indians are mum on how long they expect to be without Sizemore's services, though obviously his timetable is directly tied to whether or not he has the surgery.
When this new information hit, the immediate comparison was made nationally to the situation currently underway in Queens with their shelved CF, Carlos Beltran. Looking a little further into this, it’s easy to see why as here’s an excerpt from a story from the New York Daily News earlier this month in which Beltran talks about the surgery that took place in mid-January:
Since his January arthroscopic surgery on the troublesome right knee, the date for Beltran to begin running has been pushed back several times. Unable to do certain rehab exercises without severe pain, Beltran visited Dr. Richard Steadman - the Vail, Colo., physician who performed his January procedure - on April 20.
--snip--
"(Steadman) said the bone bruise in the tibia was the same (right below his right kneecap). He said that was the (bruise) causing me to feel that pain. And I probably will need to play with (the brace) until my knee recuperates from everything. If I feel comfortable and I feel like it doesn't harm my knee - it will be good protection, probably."
Everyone notice where Sizemore is getting tests this week?
Now do you notice where Beltran had the surgery in January?
Everyone notice the use of the word “bruise” in the context of impending surgery for both?
This may be a shot in the dark, but I don’t think that Sizemore being in Vail with a “bruise” that could require surgery after Beltran had surgery in Vail because a “bruise” caused him to feel pain is any coincidence. Maybe the team is just covering all of the bases on this one, but since we’re talking about the Indians and injuries, here’s the math on the worst-case scenario – Beltran had the surgery in January and is still not able to run on the knee 4 months later…see where I’m going here if Sizemore’s visiting the same doctor?
To go even further on this, Sweet Pete Gammons provides more information in the context of a piece as to how Miggy Cabrera and Grady have taken disparate paths in the past few years:
Diving back into the first-base bag, he severely damaged his kneecap, and there is question precisely what is the extent of the damage. If, as some fear, there is serious cartilage damage, Sizemore could be out for the season, this after a star-crossed 2009 in which he was limited to 109 games and ended up having operations on his left elbow and for a hernia.
--snip--
But back in April, Sizemore hurt that left knee diving back into second base. Doctors assured him that there was no structural damage, so Grady went right back to flying around center field. He didn't complain that he wasn't at full strength when the season opened and that the knee was bothering him. He thus was hitting .211 with 35 strikeouts and nine walks in 33 games.
See that part that Gammons mentions about the kneecap, the same place that Beltran identifies as where his “bruise” was?
I’m not sure if all of this news makes me feel better or worse about the future of Grady Sizemore, given that it would certainly explain his dreadful start and debunks the notion that his talent had simply left him, but it also means that Grady (as we once knew him) may be a long way off from ever returning to form…if that happens at all.
Perhaps it’s the Clevelander in me, but I’m just gripping for the worst, that he’s out for the season and that they “hope” that the surgery solves things so he’s ready for 2011. If that were to happen, let’s hope that the Sizemore knee doesn’t join the Hafner shoulder in body parts that make the early-to-mid-2010s painful for more than just said injured players.
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We’re now a week away from the beginning of June, which has been pointed to all year as the timeframe for Carlos Santana’s promotion to the parent club. While Lou Marson has improved as of late, it has been known that Santana would be promoted once his service clock was managed to give the Indians an extra year of control of him. Thus, the announcement is coming soon that Marson will give way to Santana and while the “Chuck Norris is scared of ‘Los Santana” sites may not pop-up en masse, it should generate a little bit of buzz (and improvement) for a team in need of both.
Maybe I’m just getting antsy waiting for the move, but I have a feeling that the Marson-Santana swap-out isn’t the only move that’s going to be made by the club in the next week or two. While it’s easy to say “Trade X” or “Fire Y” or “Get a New Owner” (because that’s the tenor on the North Coast, at least among Indians “fans”), here are the realistic moves that are likely to be made:
Masterson to AAA, Laffey to rotation
Since the idea that Masterson could end up in the bullpen (and the first two months has done nothing to change that), it may be finally time to pull the plug on the Justin-as-starter experiment and send him down to AAA (he has two options remaining) to clear his head, tweak whatever has gone wrong in his delivery, and get him accustomed (once again) to pitching out of the bullpen. I suppose the Indians could just slide Masterson into the Indians’ bullpen, but watching him over the last few weeks, it’s obvious that there are mechanical issues that need to be fixed, and those repairs are better suited for Columbus. Don’t get me wrong, Masterson still projects as the nasty back-end-of-the-bullpen arm that he was in Boston, it just looks more like he could be a match-up/Jeff Nelson type reliever, where the Indians will have to pick their spots to limit his exposure to LH hitters.
As for the corresponding move, while I'd be more inclined to leave Laffey in the bullpen given the way he’s pitched to date as a reliever (while he’s eating up innings) and given the…um, still-unsettled situation in the rotation (read: Huff, Dave), there should be a point when Laffey is given an opportunity to seize in the rotation and this would represent a time as good as any. Certainly, a case could be made for ‘Los Carrasco to essentially see what he’s able to contribute at the MLB level, there’s a very good possibility that Huff is not far off from a trip to Columbus himself, meaning that Carrasco would be the next man in line for a shot at the rotation.
Sizemore to 60-day DL, opening up a 40-man roster spot for a utility IF, Louie the Fifth to AAA
As noted above, I’m just fearing the worst on this and am already conceding that Sizemore is about to join Cabrera on the 60-day DL. If that happens, the Indians should use the open roster spot to promote a Utility IF from Columbus (and really, I don’t care who that is) so the Indians can send Valbuena to Columbus for the everyday AB that he needs. With the injury to Cabrera, this demotion likely was put off for Louie, but if the Indians are going to continue to use him in a quasi-utility role, with Donald at SS and Grudzielanek at 2B, it would benefit Valbuena to get down to Columbus in an attempt to recapture the momentum that his career had.
By no means has Valbuena earned the right to play regularly at 2B in the early going, and perhaps he ultimately projects as that utility IF for the Indians, but to slot him into that role now, where he’s suffering through every AB for the parent club is hindering his development.
Rafael Perez to DFA-land, promotion of Frank Herrmann to bullpen
Having worn my arm down banging this drum, I think that the tipping point for Perez is not far off where the Indians decide to cut ties with him and give another organizational arm a shot. Sure, the case could be made for Jensen Lewis (2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9 K, 1 BB in 8 2/3 IP in Columbus) or, to a lesser degree, Joe Smith (3.09 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 11 K, 6 BB in 11 2/3 IP in Columbus) as both are on the 40-man roster, as is Jess Todd (3.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 25 K, 4 BB in 21 1/3 IP in Columbus) and all of them have had a taste (or more) of MLB hitters.
However, if Perez’s DFA (and it’s going to happen) opens up a roster spot, why not give it to a player who, like Perez, is a former starter in the Minors who has thrived since his move to the bullpen, particularly this year. To date, Herrmann has a 0.37 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP with 17 K and 7 BB in 24 1/3 IP and while he may not boast the gaudy K numbers that a guy like Ambriz did in Columbus (Ambriz struck out 15 hitters in 8 IP while a member of the Clippers), there has to be something said for the Indians trying to find lightning-in-a-bottle when it comes to identifying potential relievers going forward and riding the hot hand (which Herrmann currently possesses) is certainly a strategy that has worked for them in the past, as it did in 2007 with the aforementioned Jenny Lewis and Rafael Perez.
Will Herrmann come in and prove himself to be a viable reliever?
Who knows, but there’s going to be plenty of opportunities when Masterson potentially comes to Columbus for a bit (and that may happen before a Perez DFA), Jamey Wright finds his way off of the roster or when Kerry Wood is traded, much less when injuries or ineffectiveness hit one of these relievers who retain options, so Todd and Lewis and Smiff will all get their chance again once more to lay claim to a bullpen spot past 2010…and really, that’s what this season is all about at this point.
Regardless of whether these exact moves occur, expect a lot of movement in the next couple of weeks as the roster will start to take shape to set up the trades that are coming, but also to set up the 25-man roster for the second half of the season
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Speaking of the “trades that are coming”, while it would seem that the Indians have an obvious in-house replacement for many of the veterans that figure to be moved this summer, there does seem to be one exception:
1B – Branyan to LaPorta
2B – Grudzielanek to Donald/Valbuena (when Cabrera returns)
LF – Kearns to Brantley (depending upon Grady’s health)
SP – Westbrook to Carrasco, Laffey, Tomlin, Pino, maybe even Rondon
CL – Wood to Perez/Sipp/Masterson
3B – Peralta to…Marte? Louie the Fifth?
Seriously, while a compelling case can be made for replacements for 1B, 2B, LF, the rotation, and the back-end of the bullpen, the obvious replacement for the day when (not if) Peralta is moved isn’t apparent.
What are the options?
Well, there’s Marte (more on him in a moment), but the guys who have played 3B in Columbus this year are…wait for it…Brian Bixler, Brian Buscher, Chris Gimenez, and Jerad Head. With Wes Hodges a full-time 1B now and with The Chiz on the shelf in AA (non-prospects Jared Goedert and Josh Rodriguez have filled in for him), any one have any better ideas?
Certainly, Marte’s name is in the mix, although even the public comments on Marte are less than glowing and the Indians certainly seem resigned to the fact that Marte is not much more than a RH bat off of the bench. In fact, it will be interesting to see how Marte is handled once he returns from the DL as Kearns isn’t going anywhere (for now) and the Indians may need to keep Shelley Duncan around as a backup corner outfielder if Sizemroe’s injury is serious.
Regardless, I don’t think that the organization is sold on Marte (fair or not) even as a stop-gap and I wouldn’t be surprised if June and July includes some deals for players in other organization may need a change of scenery and a long leash to see if their potential can come to any sort of fruition.
With that in mind, what about 25-year-old 3B Brandon Wood, who may be on the outs in Southern California?
Yes, he’s been terrible this season for the Angels…
Yes, he’s out of options and actually just hit the DL with a hip flexor, which buys the Angels a little more time on him, given that he’ll go out on a rehab start…
However, Wood was a Top-20 prospect for 3 straight years and the Angels don’t seem too likely to give him a full year of AB to see if that potential can be realized. Perhaps this is akin to nothing more than giving Andy Marte another look, but Wood dominated at AAA (cumulative OPS of .902, hitting more than 20 HR in fewer than 120 games each year) while being blocked by Chone Figgins in Anaheim for the last couple of years and the Indians are in need of a bridge between Peralta and Chisenhall…so why not Wood?
Wood certainly seems to fit that profile of a player needing a fresh start and the Indians may be the team to give Wood the opportunity to get consistent AB at 3B to see if he can be much more than a can’t-miss prospect that missed.
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The roster machinations are about to start in earnest and, while some are going to equate them to re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, the moves are going to start coming that set this team up for 2011 and beyond.
Some of those moves are going to make 2010 even less palatable than it already is, but the time to start separating the wheat from the chaff in terms of the prospects that have been acquired in the past two years, as well as the ones developed by the Indians, has come. Finally, “service clocks” fade into the distance and the roster should start resembling the way it’s supposed to look going into the future instead of resembling this land in-between hell and limbo.
After spending a birthday weekend spent enjoying Tribe games (regardless of the result, there’s still nothing like going to the ballpark on a summer evening), a trip to the West Side Market, and attempting to figure out the intricacies of my new Roku (which, if you subscribe to MLB.tv looks like almost too much of a natural not to have), let’s get going on a Lazy Sunday so I can stack up my Netflix queue with movies that I can now watch immediately (in my TV) thanks to Roku…
Is anyone else a little taken aback by being bludgeoned over the head with the idea that the Reds, in town for this contrived “Ohio Cup” hold the keys to the “blueprint” that the Indians should be following?
Everyone realizes that the Reds’ last winning season was 1999, that they’ve had 3 winning teams since 1991, 1 playoff appearance in the last 20 seasons, and no playoff series wins in the same timeframe, right?
Yeah…let’s follow that blueprint because they’re 7 games over .500 in a weak NL Central at the end of May. I can’t wait for the next 7 years of losing seasons so we can follow that same blueprint of finding young talent and trying to add some veterans to the mix in an attempt to win…you know, because that isn’t exactly what happened here in 2005 and 2007.
Every season presents a new small-market team that “has figured it out” for pundits to point to and ask why every small-market team can’t win. It’s akin to saying “don’t the Rays have it all figured out” after the Rays spent 10 consecutive years with more than 90 losses and with as many 90-win seasons as the Indians in the past 4 years.
Is that to say that the Rays aren’t trending in the right direction?
Absolutely not (though I’m not as sold on the Reds pointing up), but rather that back in 2005 and 2007, the Indians were the team that everyone pointed to as having the blueprint and for having “figured it all out”. Now, just 2 ¼ seasons removed from being 1 game away from the World Series, the Indians find themselves back at the beginning, attempting to bring their young talent to the Big Leagues, a fate that could easily befall the Reds or the Rays or any other example of that small-market team that currently has it “figured out”, which may turn out to be as short-lived as what we saw in Cleveland.
In case you didn’t notice, two of the young, small-market “teams on the cusp” back in 2007 and 2008 (Milwaukee and Arizona) sit below .500 as they are forced to face the very same realities that the Indians encountered over the last two seasons.
This has been beaten to death all off-season and throughout the first few months of the season, but the windows of opportunity for small-market teams are narrow and are shrinking in the current economic structure in MLB. It would seem that, for most small-to-mid-market teams, either they’re climbing up the mountain or they’re coming down – there is no treading water that amounts to anything in MLB, other than unnecessarily wearing oneself out.
With the 2010 season going as it is, is there any doubt now that the Indians have been coming down since the beginning of the 2008 season and, while there’s plenty of blame to go around for that, I bring it up in the context of hearing a local sports-talk radio host (I know, I should listen at my own risk) asserting that this team lacked a plan and that, had the Indians not traded Lee and Martinez, the product would not be nearly so reprehensible and perhaps the Indians could be…you know, winning some games this year.
Want to know something?
Last July, I thought that moving Lee and Martinez last year was a mistake because it essentially punted on the 2010 season, one in which I thought the Indians could re-group, hope for a couple of “breaks” and shorten that timeframe between contention, if not eliminate it altogether.
So what do we know now?
This team wasn’t a “break” or two away from contending and the tear-down was coming. Could the Indians have held onto these guys for another year to see if that lightning in a bottle was coming? I suppose so, but the Indians said that they didn’t think that they could contend in 2010 with Lee and Martinez while keeping the rest of the roster intact and while that rationale was questioned by many (including me), how is that decision looking today?
Does anyone doubt that, had the Indians held onto Lee and Martinez for 2010, that we would be suffering through not only the “Summer of LeBron” but a malcontent in Lee, throwing teammates under the bus on a bad team and likely requesting a trade?
In the context of the Fire Sale that took place last summer and just to debunk this idea that the Indians’ 2010 would be appreciably different had they held onto some of these players, let’s take a look at what the Indians who were traded in the 2009 calendar year have put forth with their new teams:
Victor Martinez – Age 31
.255 BA / .305 OBP / 431 SLG / .736 OPS with 9 2B, 6 HR in 164 PA
While he’s improved as of late, if you haven’t heard the wailing from Beantown, Victor ranks 21st in OPS among the 32 catchers in MLB with 75 or more plate appearances and his OBP is .022 points higher than one Louis Marson…but we’ll get to that.
Kelly Shoppach – Age 30
.250 BA / .333 OBP / .375 SLG / .708 OPS with 1 2B, 0 HR in 9 PA
Shoppach went on the DL in early April with a knee injury and has yet to return to the Rays’ lineup, although whether he returns to steady AB remains to be seen, given the early success of John Jaso.
Mark DeRosa – Age 35
.194 BA / .279 OBP / .258 SLG / .537 OPS with 3 2B, 1 HR in 104 PA
DeRosa went on the DL in early May with a wrist injury and has yet to return to the Giants’ lineup, as the Giants hope that his post-DL numbers are in stark contrast to his pre-DL numbers.
Ryan Garko – Age 29
.091 BA / .167 OBP / .091 SLG / .258 OPS with 0 2B, 0 HR in 38 PA
Garko was outrighted off of the Rangers’ 40-man roster last Tuesday, cleared waivers, and will now be plying his craft in Oklahoma City. That’s right, Garko went unclaimed by all 30 MLB teams and now finds himself in the Rangers’ organization (which has Justin Smoak and Chris Davis as viable 1B options) as a now-29-year-old player.
Ben Francisco – Age 28
.200 BA / .259 OBP / .240 SLG / .499 OPS with 1 2B, 0 HR in 28 PA
The Ben Francisco Treat has started 4 games for the Phillies in 2010 and doesn’t look to be in line for much more playing time as the Phillies are using The Frisco Kid in the role that suits him best, that of a 4th OF who receives sporadic playing time.
Cliff Lee – Age 31
3.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .614 OPS against with 32 K, 1 BB in 36 2/3 IP
WOW…just, WOW! 32 K and 1 BB in 36 2/3 IP as he just waits for the Yankees to add enough zeroes (and years) to their offer so he can replace Andy Pettitte in their rotation. Of course, the Mariners actually had a worse record than the Indians as of Friday and are further out of the AL West race than the Indians are of the Central, so it’s possible that we’ll be able to see what kind of return CP Lee would bring at 3 different points over the course of a year if Seattle parts with him, and it certainly looks that way right now.
Carl Pavano – Age 34
4.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .725 OPS against with 36 K, 7 BB in 50 1/3 IP
You read that right…7 BB in 50 1/3 IP for Hot Carl as it would seem that the BB totals for Lee and Pavano over 80 some innings look like a quick outing for Justin Masterson or Dave Huff.
Rafael Betancourt – Age 35
6.28 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .845 OPS against with 17 K, 3 BB in 14 1/3 IP
Betancourt remains a late-inning option for the Rox, despite giving up earned runs in 6 of his 15 appearances to date. He’s allowed more than a hit an inning and his low BB numbers are the only thing that’s preventing that WHIP from approaching Rafael Perez territory.
Obviously, injuries color some of this as Lee missed the first month of the season and DeRosa (who, truth be told, was a FA at the end of 2009, like Pavano and Betancourt) and Shoppach have been injured and/or shelved for a good portion of the year, but if anyone’s suggesting that putting these guys back on the Indians’ roster makes them a contender in 2010…well, they’re wrong.
As easy as it would be to say that adding CP Lee and Victor to the current roster “puts the Indians in the mix” for the AL Central or even the Wild Card, the 2009 team had both of those players going at full capacity and the team still scuffled out of the gate. Jumping to the assumption that a healthy Lee and a healthy Westbrook combined with a now-effective Carmona would have given this team a chance to contend is to overlook the main issue facing the current Indians team – the offense.
Would the presence of Martinez have helped that?
To a degree (although he’s finding out that being a slow starter in Boston is a completely different animal than being one in Cleveland), but even swapping Marson’s bat out for Vic’s stick wouldn’t put this team on par with the Twins, particularly given that the veterans that the Indians thought would carry the offensive load in 2010 have either been ineffective, injured or both.
Thus, in hindsight (even if we’re not even to the quarter-pole of the season) were the Indians correct to punt on 2010, given the talent on hand?
At this point, it looks that way (and is a stunning indictment of the lack of talent on the team two years removed from an ALCS appearance if you INCLUDE these guys in the mix), so the question (premature as it may be) becomes whether the Indians were able to maximize their return on these players, most notably Lee and Martinez.
To that end, let’s take a look at what the youngsters acquired in 2009 that have made it to the parent club (and there are 6 already) have put forth in the early going, and take note of the ages against those listed above:
Lou Marson – Age 24
.209 BA / .280 OBP / .253 SLG / .533 OPS with 4 2B, 0 HR in 102 PA
Not to wear my Pollyanna dress too tight, but in the last 3 weeks, Marson has a line of .281 BA / .349 OBP / .351 SLG / .700 OPS which isn’t going to set anyone’s world on fire, but for a 23-year-old catcher who was thought to be a high OBP/low-SLG guy when the Indians acquired him….that’s what he looks like. Of course, his time as the Indians’ starting catcher (and possibly his time within the organization) is already running out, so if his function was to be Josh Bard to Carlos Santana’s Victor Martinez, he got the job done. Not necessarily well…but done nonetheless.
Jason Donald – Age 25
.167 BA / .211 OBP / .167 SLG / .377 OPS against with 0 2B, 0 HR in 19 PA
To draw much of a conclusion on Donald on the basis of what he’s done so far in MLB is folly (but that’s the whole point of this) although he has looked the part and his numbers in AAA (.277 BA / .396 OBP / .423 SLG / .820 OPS) suggest that he’s ready for his close-up with the parent club.
Mitch Talbot – Age 26
3.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .748 OPS against with 20 K, 24 BB in 53 1/3 IP
Unleashing his own peculiar brand of Fury upon the AL, baffling hitters (and me) as to how he’s actually succeeding with more BB than K. Through a quarter of the 2010 season, Mitch Talbot has a lower ERA and a lower WHIP than Felix Hernandez…seriously.
Excuse me while I go eat this crow.
Justin Masterson – Age 25
5.65 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, .832 OPS against with 46 K, 24 BB in 43 IP
Yes, Masterson has been one of the most frustrating players on the Indians in the early going as we continue to hope (against hope…and probably logic) that he’s much more than what the Red Sox had him pegged as – which is a late-inning reliever. He’s still striking out more than a hitter an inning (though he’s walking more than one hitter every two innings) and the “stuff” seems to be there (whatever that means) so perhaps he’s most emblematic of this Indians’ team – young, talented (though the talent level is not yet fully known), struggling to find his way, and impossibly frustrating.
Chris Perez – Age 24
1.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .648 OPS against with 13 K, 8 BB in 14 2/3 IP
Regarded as the “Closer of the Future” (and maybe the present depending upon whether Kerry Wood recovered his glove from the 3B Field Boxes on Wednesday, Perez has shown to have the electric (if erratic) repertoire that the Indians have lacked for such a long time among their young relievers. While it remains to be seen if C.F. Perez can keep his emotions in check and his walks to a minimum, Perez misses bats and has proven to be among the most promising bullpen arms under the age of 25 in recent memory.
Thus, even taking a glass half-empty view of this, the Indians have a member of the middle-to-back-end of their rotation, two back-end of the bullpen arms, their likely 2B of the future, and a player who is likely to get moved in the off-season whose presence delayed Carlos Santana’s arbitration clock for trades consummated less than a year ago.
While the feeling may persist that the Indians should have received more for the reigning Cy Young Award winner and El Capitan (among others) and that may certainly be a valid concern going forward, realize that the Rangers traded Mark Teixiera in 2007 to the Braves in what is looking like an absolute heist for Texas as they acquired SS Elvis Andrus, closer Neftali Feliz, SP Matt Harrison, and “C” Jarrod Saltalamachia.
Why is it important to bring that up?
Remember, the Rangers made that trade in mid-2007 and are just now getting the kind of contributions from trading 1 ½ years of their best player to the Braves that have allowed them to sit atop the AL West. It would seem that the Indians took a different tact in their deals with the Phillies and the Red Sox, opting for prospects who were further along in their development, but perhaps without the upside of a Feliz or an Andrus.
Whether that will prove to be a sound strategy or another nail in the organization’s coffin, the 6 players who have already arrived topside from the 2009 deals only represent a portion of the acquired talent when you go down a little further in the organization, presented without comment as we have only the numbers to look at and not much more:
Carlos Carrasco – Age 23 (AAA)
4.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .834 OPS against with 31 K, 19 BB in 39 1/3 IP
Yohan Pino – Age 26 (AAA)
4.96 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .789 OPS against with 38 K, 14 BB in 45 1/3 IP
Jess Todd – Age 24 (AAA)
3.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .716 OPS against with 23 K, 8 BB in 20 1/3 IP
Bryan Price – Age 23 (AA)
4.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .805 OPS against with 19 K, 3 BB in 15 IP
Scott Barnes – Age 22 (AA)
6.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .754 OPS against with 36 K, 22 BB in 35 IP
Connor Graham – Age 24 (AA)
5.57 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, .906 OPS against with 13 K, 17 BB in 21 IP
Nick Hagadone – Age 24 (A+)
2.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .632 OPS against with 32 K, 22 BB in 29 IP
Do you notice that these are ALL pitchers, with only one of them (Hagadone) below AA with the likelihood that he’s going to find himself following 2010 1st Round Pick Alex White to Akron in short order?
Back to the deals of the 2009 season, and the Lee deal in particular, since it is still WILDLY premature to tag any particular player (or the deal as a whole) as a “bust”, take a look at the two Phillies’ prospects that most people who saw the Indians’ return for Lee and identified as the ones that the Indians were wrong to not demand from Philly, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. Lest you forget, Drabek and Taylor were moved to Toronto for Halladay, with Taylor making his way into the A’s organization. Regardless, here’s how each has fared in the early going with their new teams:
Kyle Drabek – Age 22 (AA)
3.06 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .684 OPS against with 45 K, 21 BB in 47 IP
Michael Taylor – Age 24 (AAA)
.232 BA / .290 OBP / .408 SLG / .698 OPS with 8 2B, 2 HR in 138 PA
Just for some perspective, here are the lines for Carrasco and Donald…and please take note of the ages and levels, particularly for Drabek and Carrasco:
Carlos Carrasco – Age 23 (AAA)
4.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .834 OPS against with 31 K, 19 BB in 39 1/3 IP
Jason Donald – Age 25 (AAA)
.277 BA / .396 OBP / .423 SLG / .820 OPS with 10 2B, 2 HR in 165 PA
In case you were wondering, among the 3 players that the Phillies received for Lee from the Mariners, two are above high-A ball (Phillipe Aumont and Tyson Gillies) and Aumont is currently sporting a 5.94 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in AA Reading while Gillies has put forth an OPS of .642 at AA.
Is that pointed out to assert the prospects received from Seattle are inadequate or that Michael Taylor will never be a good MLB player because he’s started slowly or that Carrasco is a better prospect than Drabek because of age and level, or vice versa because of performance?
Absolutely not…because it’s TOO EARLY to tell on these young players.
And that’s perhaps the point of this long-winded dissertation as the Indians are caught in this waiting game, as they wait for these prospects to first be ready for MLB, then to adjust to MLB with the hopes that they eventually thrive in MLB.
While it’s easy to look at the current team on the field and put forth the idea that the Indians lack a plan and point out that the team looks dreadful and how horrific the Lee deal (in particular) looks because “Marson’s a bum and Carrasco’s a 4A pitcher”, let’s take a step back and realize that we’re still not even a year removed from these deals.
If you want to complain about the organization, have at it…because there’s plenty to complain about in terms of drafting their own players to complement the players they’ve been able to acquire via trades and the couple of trades (notably the Frank the Tank deal as Louie the Fifth should be joining Joe Smiff in AAA) that do look bad with a little more time to ruminate on them, not to mention what looks like a misuse of talent that was on hand in 2007 or thereabouts.
However, with the events of the past week (the injuries, the horrific play on the field), everyone seems to think that it’s time to blow it up and that the product on the field merits such a blow-up. However, the detonation already happened over the past two years and we’re about to see whether some of the players that came over in those deals are able to play roles in what the Indians hope is the next incarnation of a contender, just as they did from 2002 to 2004, when the seeds were sewn for the (albeit brief) window of contention that followed.
We’re back at Ground Zero (or still on our way down to it), a spot that every small-market team occupies from time to time, sometimes for a long time. The length of the stay at the bottom of the chasm is going to be determined by the performance of the players acquired over the last two years and whether they are able to mature and congeal as a team the way that the team did in 2004 and 2005. While those days may be some time off, let’s realize that the Indians are back to the beginning stages of attempting to build this up from the ground up again.
Whether you want to look at it as the Indians sleeping in the bed that they’ve made for themselves or if you see it as the Indians proactively trying “manage the cycles” of contention and non-contention as aggressively as possible to shorten the timeframe between those cycles will likely bear itself out. The answers aren’t going to come quickly or obviously, but what’s being seen on the field these days is the result of the actions taken in the last two years, for better or worse.
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