How Do You Want It?

The Hot Stove is allegedly on, though you wouldn’t know it on the North Coast with the combination of the icy wind off of Lake Erie and the lack of warmth coming from the Winter Meetings in Orlando. Thus, as the rest of MLB lines up to overpay (in most instances) the FA baseball players on the open market, we are left in Cleveland to parse though talk of Jeff Francouer (now thankfully a Royal) and whether he was self-aware enough to be useful for the Tribe (in that he is only useful to face LHP...but is deluded enough to think that he’s worthy of an every day spot) and think about Louie the Fifth (who I’m curious as to where he’d play in 2011 if he remains in the Tribe organization with Donald at 2B in Cleveland and Kipnis at 2B in Columbus) perhaps going back to Seattle. With all of this “news” emerging for the Tribe at the Winter Meetings, I keep coming back to something in this boring off-season for the Indians and their fans - what should the Indians be doing this off-season?

An urban poet asked that question in different terms a number of years ago but I think that it’s instructive to review the question that he posed. And while his...ahem, thrust may have been different in posing the query, in all seriousness, “How Do You Want It” this off-season if you’re talking about the Indians?

Watching mid-level FA come off the board with high numbers associated with their signings and with top(pish) FA going for absurd rates, do you want the Indians – as they currently stand – to get involved in the spinning-out-of-control world of MLB FA?

Given the names and the numbers that we’ve seen so far this off-season, do you prefer the Indians throwing money at bad players to pacify the masses and watching guys like Tejada or Uribe or Peralta cashing in $5M to $6M next year while making the steady decline to obscurity or is looking for little pieces like they did with Austin Kearns last year and squirreling money away to be spent on going overslot in the draft and earmarking money for the talent currently on the roster when they’re due pay raises the more prudent strategy?

Supposing an argument could be made that the Indians should be doing both – being active on the FA market to improve the team in the here and now AND paying draftees overslot money to improve the team in the future – isn’t it fairly apparent that overpaying on the FA market simply isn’t a path the team should be exploring, particularly right now?

Do we all not remember Dellucci and Michaels and how paying FA veterans the “going” rate (which is to say “too much”)on the FA market is akin to throwing money away when suitable alternatives can be found and have been found by this team in years past?

Are these FA “out of their price range” or are they simply not worthy of the contracts that are being awarded to them?

Is Jeff Francouer worth the $2.5M the Royals are going to pay him in 2010 or would you like to see Matt Diaz added with a two-year deal worth $4.25M? Given that less expensive alternatives (who may be more productive) probably exist, were Frenchy and Diaz really “too expensive” for the Indians or can the Indians find comparable production from a RH bat at a lower cost?

To bring this into the topic that everyone in town is discussing (and it isn’t the Indians), people are begging for the Cavaliers to blow it up in the wake of last Thursday’s debacle and the ensuing slide into the NBA gutter. The most common refrain among those in the know (and count Brian Windhorst among them at the end of this interview) is that the worst place to be is an organization stuck in neutral, close to .500 year after year, getting no better or worse. The refrain for the Cavs that keeps emerging is that they should trade their useful pieces for youngsters or draft picks and get into the lottery, which is the only way that a team in Cleveland is going to compete is by getting lucky in the draft and by developing their own. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if an impetuous owner like Dan Gilbert is going to do in an attempt to build a contender on the fly or if he’s going to make the hard – and correct – decision for the long-term health of the franchise.

That being said, does this “hard decision” sound familiar? Isn’t the hard decision that is staring the Cavs in the face the same one that the Indians were looking at when CC was traded in 2008 and when Clifton Phifer and El Capitan were traded in 2009?

Does the effect of “The Decision” come into play here and did the Indians make mistakes from the end of 2007 to where we sit today...no question. That’s why the demise (or coming demise) of both franchises isn’t that easily compared as a homicide and a self-inflicted wound are two entirely different manners of death or near-death.

But isn’t the conventional wisdom about the Cavs that they should start from scratch and that the only way that they’re going to be competitive again is to do what the Thunder or the Blazers or the Hornets have done, by drafting wisely and trading shrewdly after effectively tearing it down.

Is this not the same path that the Indians took in 2002, then again over the last 2 ½ years? By no means am I here to assert that they have drafted wisely and traded shrewdly in the last 2 ½ years as we have no idea about too many of these guys...but that IS what they did from 2003 to 2007, did they not?

Lest anyone forget, the 2003 team went 68-94, “good” for 4th place in the Central. For context here (in case you’ve forgotten), the 2010 team was 69-93, again “good” for 4th place in the Central. After the 2003 team went 68-94, the 2004 team went 80-82 and was 63-55 on August 14th, just 1 Game Back in the AL Central, only to fall apart down the stretch but with the building blocks in place for a 93-win season in 2005 and, eventually, a division crown in 2007.

So what, you may ask, happened between 2003 and 2004 that allowed the team to improve that dramatically?

Well...after the Indians had 5 players selected in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft, they signed Ronnie Belliard as a place-holder 2B and Lou Merloni as a veteran utility player, they traded for or signed retread/injury risk relievers like Bobby Howry, Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, and Matt Miller, and they added Jeff D’Amico to their starting rotation.
Those were the off-season moves that “catapulted” the team to 17 more wins...no, really.

With those “moves” listed, it’s fairly obvious that their improvement from 2003 to 2004 had nothing to do with pieces added or money spent in December of 2003 or January of 2004 as the development of the young players (Martinez and Hafner) and young pitchers (CC and Jake) is what allowed the team to improve appreciably, with the likes of Lee, Sizemore, and Peralta still struggling in 2004.

Is the 2011 team going to contend in August as the 2004 team did?

You’re not going to find me out on that limb just yet, but it speaks to how more interest should be paid this off-season to what can reasonably expected of those acquired in-house options like Matt LaPorta (the subject of the latest “Jon & Paul Plus Baseball”, which is worth a look), Carlos Carrasco, and Justin Masterson and how the long-term success of the Indians’ organization is tied much more closely to the development of those players than it is to the addition of a couple of marginal FA.

I know, I know…that discussion about internal options is not interesting and that doesn’t warm anyone on the Hot Stove and in this Brave New World of Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors, where any mention of the Indians is dissected to the smallest detail and where roster machinations that once occupied a line in a “Transactions” column in the local fishwraps cause more consternation than humanly possible.

To wit, every time they are linked to Nick Punto or CM Wang or Adam Everett, the bleats that they’re not spending any money are deafening and while that may come from a very vocal portion of the fans, they’re not helped when the hometown paper runs a headline that says, “Cleveland Indians looking for (surprise) bargains at winter meetings” with that snarky parenthetical thrown in for no other reason than for more clicks (which I won’t provide as no link is contained there...and, trust me, it’s with your best interest in mind) and more rabble-rousing in an attempt to maintain relevancy…for the paper, not the team.

To get back to the inactivity of the off-season, isn’t it obvious to most that the team already did make their moves from July of 2008 to August of 2010 to add the young players that are being counted upon to lead the team back into contention? Aren’t they supposed to be building from within and stockpiling as much young talent as possible (by any means necessary) in an attempt to recreate the 2004 to 2007 “window” WHILE keeping it open for a period longer than four seasons?

Once these youngsters reveal themselves more fully in 2010, perhaps it will present the opportunity for the Indians to add a piece like they did prior to 2005, when they added Millwood, but now simply isn’t the time…as poorly as the Indians have articulated that fact. Thinking about Millwood, even he was seen as “dumpster diving” and the only time that they’ve dipped their toe in the big kid’s pool was when they they...wait for it...overpaid on the FA market for the services of Kerry Wood, adding a closer a year too late.

If you want to argue that the Indians failed in adding pieces when they needed to after the 2005 season and prior to the 2008 season in an attempt to capitalize on the momentum created in 2005 and 2007 (that was promptly put to an end)…have at it, there’s certainly an argument there to make.

However, if we’re talking strictly in the here and now – shouldn’t the focus be on seeing what the team has and using money on the draft, as they did last year?

Maybe what comes out as a result and certainly the strategy of building through spending in the draft is not going to bear any immediate fruit, but what does adding an Aaron Harang for $6.5M (and he would have wanted more to come to Cleveland as he took that number from his hometown Padres) do for the 2011 Indians?

More to the point, what satiates the fan base with moves that are going to be made on the FA market this Winter?

Last off-season, they turned Kelly Shoppach into Unleash the Fury and signed a bunch of castoffs (Kearns, Duncan, Redmond, and Branyan) to deals that for the most part worked out even if they did little to generate any excitement, with more optimism being generated by a couple of months of Santana or the second half of Perez than anything they did in acquiring pieces last Winter.

If you’re looking that developments that would generate interest among the fanbase, it has nothing to do with adding a Matt Diaz or a Jeff Francoeur or a DJ Carrasco in December (all of whom have now signed elsewhere) as we’re talking about anciallary pieces and depth that probably isn’t going to be around the next time the Indians find themselves in contention.

Rather, if you’re wondering what would generate the interest once more among Tribe fans, you have to wait until the events on the field in April and May as it bears asking whether anything that would be done this off-season would reverse the current feelings on the Tribe and the perception that has pervaded the team?

The only thing that is going to make people feel better about the Dolans and Antonetti is going to come from performance on the field and no contract signed in Orlando at the Winter Meetings or later in the off-season is going to change that fact.

The way that the Indians achieve relevance and interest once more is by winning on the field in 2011…a fact that is easily forgotten in the “boring” off-season that we find ourselves in the midst of.

A Lazy Sunday at the Kids’ Table

Winter has officially arrived on the North Coast and if you were expecting your belly to be warmed by the Hot Stove, you better order twice off of the Kids’ Menu if you’re an Indians’ fan as it has become painfully apparent that only a handful of teams are in position for the difference-making FA and an even smaller handful of teams are able to execute a transaction like the Red Sox did in netting Adrian Gonzalez for three prospects, none of whom has appeared above AA. If you think I’m kidding on the former claim, realize that 11 teams have added FA from outside their organization and, while some big names are still out on the market, it’s fairly obvious that about 4 to 5 teams legitimately can realistically claim a shot at the likes of Lee, Crawford, Werth, etc.

While all of that happens, here we sit in Cleveland…relegated to the Kids’ Table because of an underachieving group of talented players over the course of two years (2008 and 2009) and done in by the organization’s inability to restock the cupboard on their own accord. As depressing as that all sounds, it doesn’t mean that there isn’t conjecture to make and items to link as it is Sunday after all…

After a week in which Andy Marte said goodbye (in the PD, no less…and yes, that’s a joke) and in which some hack made the requisite joke about the Pirates’ AAA team being named the Indians over at the new “Hitting the Fan” portion of TCF (which you should bookmark, if you’re still into bookmarking), anything related to the Indians actually represented a welcome distraction from a Cavs’ team apparently didn’t read the best thing to come out of ESPN since Craig Kilborn and laid down for their King.

While very little emerged that “related to the Indians”, the rest of the AL Central remained wildly active on the FA market and the Adam Dunn signing by the White Sox meant that, at the time of the contract being finalized, $141.75M of the $300.95M that had been committed on the FA market as of Friday night came out of the AL Central…and more specifically JUST from the Tigers and the White Sox.

While Jerry Reinsdorf and Mike Ilitch’s checkbooks are wide open, the activity of the two teams strikes me in completely different ways. As much as I haven’t liked the Tigers’ moves because of the length of the moves and the stench of spending money simply to spend money around them (and...um, Mr. Heymann should be expecting his check from Scott Boras any time now as he continues to laud ANY money spent in FA as superb and calls the Tigers’ off-season signings “excellent” without reservation), the Dunn signing is a great fit for the White Sox, whose DH production last year was abysmal. Dunn breaks up their impatient RH hitters and gives their lineup an element of patience and power (in the bandbox on the South Side no less) that had been lacking, particularly last year with no Jim Thome.

Interestingly, if you want to make the assertion that Dunn will replace Thome in their lineup and could give their toothless lineup enough bite to support their great starting pitching so much so that it would make them the favorites in the Central for 2011, I couldn’t disagree as Dunn is the perfect fit for them.
It is worth mentioning however, that it is just now December…

Of course (cue the gnashing of teeth and the wailing), news of lavish spending in the AL Central brings the focus back to the biggest bit of news from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario – that the non-tender list would provide the Indians a new batch of FA to choose from, likely at a discounted rate. That beins said however, it gets back to something that I’ve been hammering away at for much of the quiet off-season, in that as much as Dunn represented a great fit for the White Sox, where is that obvious “fit” for the Indians on the FA market?

Sure, some (or maybe just me) thought that former D-Backs’ GM Josh Byrnes would be a nice “fit” in the Tribe Front Office to add a new voice by returning to his roots, but he’s off to join some other former colleagues in San Diego…so the Indians can’t even get EXECUTIVES to come to Cleveland.
Amirite?

Seriously though, would Lee and Beltre look great at the front of the rotation and in the middle of the lineup while manning 3B?
Sure, but let’s get back to reality here and let’s take a look at what’s happened at the areas of “need” for the Indians and what still may be out there for the Indians to explore to improve their team, even if only for a short time.

Starting with the spot that even Abbott and Costello consistently couldn’t figure out (“I Don’t Know…3B, get it?), lest you think that the Tribe is taking the wrong approach on finding a 3B stopgap from the scrap heap – be it the non-tender list or from “the street”, to borrow an NFL term – please consider what Juan Uribe just received from the Dodgers ($21M for 3 years) for some perspective on what FA cost and how Miggy Tejada just extracted a 1-year, $6.5M deal from the Giants. Although it appears that Uribe will be playing 2B in LA and Tejada will be playing SS in SF, in case you’re not following these FA 3B signings, Brandon Inge inked a 2-year deal that will pay him $11.5M, nearly identical to Jhonny Peralta’s deal

For some context on those numbers and the performance that is likely to be expected for $5M to $7M a year on the open market, consider this:
OPS+ in 2010
Tejada – 104 OPS+
Uribe – 99 OPS+
Inge – 94 OPS+
Peralta – 92 OPS+
Nix – 87 OPS+

While Nix appears at the bottom of this list, realize that the numbers that Nix compiled as an Indian last year amounted to a 96 OPS+. That doesn’t make me feel that much better about 3B as I still think that Nix was likely playing over his head (and it just makes me think that the Tigers and the Giants and the Dodgers are spending money foolishly on the FA market) and…this may come as a surprise…the issue for me is still defense at 3B. As much as the Indians are saying that Nix will be fine with a Winter in Puerto Rico playing exclusively 3B, I’m still on the prowl for that 3B…it’s just that the pickings are pretty slim.

In case you don’t believe me that the pickings are slim, the signing of Jack Hannahan (to a minor-league deal…and I’ll link the Indians.com, so no eyeballs are seared by the vitriol at the cle.com story) and the news of “mutual interest” for former Twin Nick Punto makes a fair bit of sense if you look at what is out there. Certainly, you would like to see a better option than Hannahan being signed and Punto being shown interest, but if we’re at the idea that the Indians are going with this “3B Derby” like they did back before the 2003 season (when Lacey Cake “beat out” Greg LaRocca and Bill Selby), guys like Nix (career 77 OPS+ in 718 PA), newly signed Jack Hannahan (career 78 OPS+ in 981 PA), and Punto (career OPS+ in 2,818 PA) at least have MLB resumes…as underwhelming as those resumes may be.

The Hannahan signing is the first sign that the “3B Derby” is coming and looking at the OPS+ that Nix and Hannahan and perhaps Punto certainly doesn’t elicit much confidence. However, while it is true that Hannahan and Punto simply cannot hit (Punto posted a 69 OPS+ in 2010, and the aforementioned 73 OPS+ on his career…and for some context on that, Trevor Crowe had a 79 OPS+ in 2010 and has a 74 OPS+ in his brief career) and are likely to never hit, if the Indians are truly interested in upgrading 3B defensively, Hannahan and Punto do represent an obvious upgrade over Nix in that department and would be able to (like Nix) move around the diamond, mainly to 2B, depending upon promotions for the likes of The Chiz and Kipnis and the performance of Jason Donald. If Punto is brought into the 3B mix (with a low price tag) to join Hannahan and Nix, it doesn’t do much harm – though it will cause some…um, consternation among a segment of the fanbase – in that it adds a versatile player to the mix while the Indians let their prospects shake out (think Mike Redmond with Santana and Marson last year) who is expendable when his usefulness is exhausted.

If you’re wondering what the point of bringing a guy like Hannahan or Punto is at all, since I’m on the record for not trusting these defensive metrics any further than I can throw them, I will refer back to that voting for John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, where Jack Hannahan was rated the 8th best defensive 3B in MLB in 2009 (he did not play an inning in MLB in 2010…ahem) and where Nick Punto was ranked as the 11th best defensive 3B in MLB and probably the highest ranked name on that list that is readily available. Some of the names above Punto on the 2010 voting (namely Kouzmanoff and Jose Lopez) were thought to be made available perhaps by the non-tender deadline, but both will be paid at rates commensurate with their service time.

The reason for that being that Kouz was tendered a deal by the A’s and Jose Lopez (who actually bested K2 in the Fielding Bible voting as the 6th best defensive 3B) was traded to the Rockies for a non-prospect arm. If you’re wondering why the Indians weren’t willing to part with a non-prospect arm for a guy like Lopez (who, it should be noted can’t actually get on base…he’s just a good defensive 3B, just like one Nick Punto), realize that Lopez wasn’t non-tendered, he was traded to the Rockies who will now tender him a contract, meaning he’s going to get paid by the Rockies at a rate that the Mariners were (rightfully) reticent to commit to.

Truthfully, the only name of note that was non-tendered that was a 3B (in name only) is Edwin Encarnacion, a noted butcher at 3B. If you want to look at Encarnacion as a RH bat that crushes LH pitching (.914 OPS vs. LHP in 2010, .847 career OPS vs. LHP), that’s about the only place I could see the Indians pursuing him as his glove is appreciably worse than that of Nix and has actually earned him the nickname E5…so that should be that on Encarnacion.

Just to check in here, anyone see those types of moves as ones that the Indians are obviously missing out on, even at their most obvious position of need?

Back to it, perhaps you see a fit there as a RH bat in Encarnacion, but the fact that he would represent (another) defensive liability would cause me to look for another player that was non-tendered that would be more versatile for the Indians that could provide some production from the right side of the plate. To that end, I’ll go back to the ol’ roadmap for the off-season and pull a little copy-and-paste to submit once again the idea that “the choice here would be Matt Diaz, who can play all 3 OF positions and is RH so he can sub for any and all of the LH OF and can spell Hafner, when needed, as the DH or allow one of the OF to slide over to DH when Hafner needs a break.”

Well, Diaz was non-tendered and granted, he’s not a great defender and is not a perfect “fit” by any stretch of the imagination, but the Indians (with their LH heavy lineup and with lingering concerns about the readiness of Grady Sizemore lingering…in my head at least), Diaz could be a nice ancillary piece. Truthfully, Diaz may generate some interest among contenders looking for a complementary platoon player, given his career .907 OPS vs. LHP, but the Indians would do well to inquire on Diaz, if just to remove Trevor Crowe from my greater consciousness, which will make it much easier to send in those season ticket checks.

As for the other interesting names on that non-tender list at areas of “need” for the Indians, the starting pitchers that join the FA fray are some names you may recognize. If you do though, it’s not for any recent performance as CM Wang, John Maine, Andrew Miller, and Ryan Rowland-Smith were all non-tendered by their respective teams and could be had on the open market. The most interesting name belongs to John Maine, who had the lowest ERA among the quartet last year…with a 6.13 ERA. He’s interesting because he is still just 29 years old and had a career ERA of 4.22 (ERA+ of 101) with a WHIP of 1.30 going into 2010. He walks too many guys (4.1 BB/9 in his career), but his numbers in his first four years as a starter for the Mets resulted in a 4.01 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, so perhaps a change of scenery and some new tutelage will allow him to re-capture his old success.

Really, that’s all we’re talking about with these guys as Wang hasn’t pitched in MLB since posting a 9.42 ERA for the Yanks in 2009 and Miller and Rowland-Smith are both former prospects whose ERA in 2010 were 8.54 (Miller) and 6.75 (Rowland-Smith). Not that it necessarily matters, both Miller and Rowland-Smith are LHP, and just to give you an idea of why these are the types of names that you’re going to be looking at, in case you missed it, Zach Duke (5.72 ERA, 1.65 WHIP in 2010) signed a deal worth FOUR AND A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS guaranteed instead of being non-tendered by the Diamondbacks, who acquired him from the Pirates.

If that’s where we’re at with SP on the open market, just get ready to don your treasured Josh Tomlin jersey all of 2011 or wait for the Ryan Rowland-Smith updates in this sweltering Hot Stove season.

While the names that figure as starting pitchers are…um, less than compelling, if you think that the Indians could use some RH bullpen help this off-season (and I do), there were a couple of names that were non-tendered that may merit some interest, most notably DJ Carrasco, Zach Miner, Manny Delcarmen, and Joel Peralta.

A reliever, you say…after the way that the Tribe bullpen performed down the stretch?
Well, if you remember that “roadmap” to the off-season, Jesse Crain was mentioned as the type of arm that I’d like to see the team target saying that “adding a Jesse Crain suddenly gives the 7th and 8th innings a more fleshed out feel with Crain, R. Perez, and Sipp serving as the set-up men, allowing the likes of Joe Smith, Jenny Lewis, Justin Germano and the gaggle of MiLB arms to sort themselves out and force themselves into that late-inning mix instead of simply being handed the keys to the 7th or 8th innings.”

You can scratch Crain’s name out of the start of that sentence as there are apparently 9 teams lining up for Mr. Crain’s services and, if we’re using the Benoit deal (3 years, $16.5M) as the basis for what a RH set-up guy is going to get on the open market, then Crain is about to get a deal that’s probably not far off what Benoit netted in terms of years and dollars.

Anyone want to give 3 years to a set-up guy?
Yeah...me neither. That being said however, I still go back to the idea that adding a RH arm would accomplish the stated desire above, to settle the 7th and 8th innings at a date earlier than the Fourth of July. Apparently I’m in the minority on this one though as there’s a note in a Hoynes’ “catch-up” piece earlier in the week that caught my eye though as it related to Josh Judy perhaps being a factor in 2011 as Hoynes says that Judy “has a chance to crack the Tribe’s stacked bullpen”.

“Stacked”...where, exactly?
Yes, C. Perez looks like a bona-fide closer and Rafael Perez pulled himself off of the sharp rocks to save his nearly-shipwrecked season while Tony Sipp (who, it should be mentioned, had the highest BB/9 rate for players that threw more than 6 innings and who was second to Heck Ambriz in HR/9) showed some promise...but “stacked”?

Maybe I can’t shake the bullpens from 2006 and 2008 out of my synapses, but even at a cursory glance, Joe Smith can’t get out LH hitters (they compiled a .979 OPS against him in 2010 and that was an improvement over the .992 OPS that they compiled in 2009), and the other RH reliever that even merits a mention out of the gate, Jensen Lewis, still evokes images of HR after HR coming off of him in 2009, fair or not. It’s not that I don’t think that Smith and Lewis are useful relievers – Smith strictly as a ROOGY and Lewis as a 6th inning guy who is able to pitch later in the games when he’s going well – it’s more that I don’t see that RH set-up guy in front of Perez jumping off the page.

To that end, in Anthony Castrovince’s final Inbox (yes, this is me shedding a tear), he had this answer as to how the back-end of the bullpen is expected to line up, writing that “the general expectation is for Joe Smith, Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp to serve as the primary setup options for closer Chris Perez.”

If Joe Smith really shouldn’t face a LH hitter (and he shouldn’t), that looks like A LOT of potential pitcher movement coming in the 7th and 8th innings with multiple Acta mound visits in terms of relievers coming in on a match-up basis. Perhaps they figure that Perez and Sipp will basically be the “setup options”, with Smith coming in to face a string of RH hitters, but if I know that Smith’s career splits are a .616 OPS against when facing RH hitters and a .925 OPS against when facing LH hitters, do you think that might be in one of those big binders that managers glance at from time to time during a game?

Realizing that the bullpen was a high point in 2011, particularly in the second half, it has fallen down the priority list of most that I have seen that list the Indians’ needs because (apparently) Justin Germano and Vinnie Pestano and Frank Herrmann elicit such confidence. Honestly, I feel good about the Indians’ bullpen future going forward as it’s not that I doubt that bullpen arms will be coming, I’m just not sure that they’re going to be coming and (here’s the important part) succeeding in 2011.

To that end (and to get back to that non-tender list), those aforementioned names of DJ Carrasco (remember him from the Pale Hose and the Royals), Zach Miner (formerly of the Tigers), Manny Delcarmen (Masterson’s former bullpen-mate in Beantown who has fallen on hard times the last two years and will turn 29 in February), and Joel Peralta (whose 2010 was not all that dissimilar from that of Rafael Soriano) are guys that are RH that the Indians should be adding to the mix for the bullpen

Certainly, cost and demand plays a role here and by no means am I saying that Carrasco or Delcarmen should be counted upon to be a RH set-up guy, nor am I saying that they should leapfrog any of the other arms that seem be lining up in the Minors. Rather, it would behoove the Indians to acquire a RH arm for the bullpen that has a track record (even if it has been spotty in the past few years) to, as I wrote when submitting the case for Jesse Crain, “give the 7th and 8th innings a more fleshed out feel with (insert RH reliever’s name), R. Perez, and Sipp serving as the set-up men, allowing the likes of Joe Smith, Jenny Lewis, Justin Germano and the gaggle of MiLB arms to sort themselves out and force themselves into that late-inning mix instead of simply being handed the keys to the 7th or 8th innings.”

With all of this flotsam and jetsam floating about, the question arrives of whether moves like this take us back to the days of Oldberto and the like…and what’s the point of even signing these guys?

For that answer, I think that you have to recognize that the Indians were much further along in their development when the Danny Graves and other scrap-heap signings of his ilk were signed, so…yeah, those were frustrating signings. But not unlike the manner in which the Indians used Heck Ambriz last year, I wouldn’t have much of a problem with them bringing in a Manny Delcarmen to see if he can recapture some of his past success while the young arms in Columbus slot themselves and start to force their way onto the parent club.

Which young arms those will be remains to be seen, but (it being prospect season) Baseball Prospectus chimed in on the Tribe farm system this week. Depth seems to be the Tribe’s calling card for B-Pro’s Top Prospects piece (and you can see the list at the link), in which Kevin Goldstein asserts that “The Indians system is a difficult one to wrap your head around. It lacks the star power of an elite system, but at the same time, don’t be surprised if it produces a greater number of big-leaguers than any organization in baseball.”

Stop me if you’ve heard that before, but Goldstein goes into tremendous detail for all of these guys, plotting out the “Perfect World Projections”, the “Path to the Big Leagues”, and other extremely relevant information in parsing through the Indians fields of crops.

One of the more intriguing piece of information that Goldstein projects is the ETA for different guys in MLB, something that allows you to see that, while a guy like LaVon Washington may be great to dream on, his ETA of 2014 means that the distance between Lake County (where he’ll play in 2011) and Cleveland is much further than a quick trip on I-90.

That being said, it should be mentioned that four of the six top prospects have an ETA of late 2011 – Kipnis, Chisenhall, White, and Weglarz. In case you were wondering, Cord Phelps’ ETA is simply 2011 (not late 2011) and Joe Gardner is late 2012, but please notice where that quartet figures into the mix in 2011...essentially at the positions of most concern – 2B, 3B, SP, and LF/1B/DH.

So if the ETA for a lot of these guys is late 2011, we’re back to the question of adding ancillary pieces and parts to serve the same purpose that Austin Kearns and Mike Redmond did in 2010 – to allow those top prospects (The Chiz, White, Kipnis, all those bullpen arms) some time in AAA, putting the onus on Kipnis or Chisenhall force themselves into the picture and to assert themselves as MLB-ready instead of simply handing them a job (and Brantley’s numbers to start the year in 2010 come to mind here) and hoping for the best.

The names of those “ancillary pieces” are sure to be met with considerable scorn as these guys are going to come with flaws (some of them major...like they can’t hit), but if you’re looking to upgrade the periphery of the roster while still giving these young guys a chance to assert themselves, this is the avenue to follow.

It’s been said far too many times in the past few months, but the success of the Indians over the next 5 years is not going to hinge on their activity in this FA market, but rather how the young players that are slotted in their system (from Santana down to Pomeranz) develop and mature individually and as a group. Guys like Jack Hannahan and Matt Diaz and Manny Delcarmen will likely become footnotes in the history of the Indians (as members of the 2003 and 2004 teams – Greg LaRocca, Lou Merloni, Karim Garcia, Josh Phelps, Rick White, Jack Cressend, and Jason Boyd have become) and it certainly doesn’t make this off-season any more enjoyable as we feel like we’re right back to where we were about 6 years ago.

Though the fruits of that rebuild bore some nice seasons in 2005 and 2007, we’re left to wait on the likes of Santana, LaPorta, Brantley, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Carrasco, Masterson, and many more to see if they’ll develop into a semblance of a contender over the course of 2011 and beyond.

While we wait for that to happen, the Hot Stove feels cold as the Indians are left to look at the Menu provided to them by MLB, with the team (and the fans) fully aware that they’ll finish the off-season with their appetite not fully satiated and thinking about trying to get a seat at the Adults’ Table sometime soon.

Jon & Paul Plus Baseball: To 3B or Not to 3B

Since the off-season thus far has been filled with visions of Manny Acta in a winter hat and an innertube, memories of Andy Marte toeing the rubber, and watching former Indians receive generational wealth from various MLB teams that don’t call the corner of Carnegie and Ontario home, perhaps now represents a tremendous new wrinkle to what we do here. While most of the pieces that you will read on the Indians represent one viewpoint or a specific expert answering questions presented to them, one exploration of the Indians that has always been lacking on front pages and in main articles is discourse and disagreement between two people who think far too much about the Indians.

With that in mind, I’m pleased to announce a new feature here with a back-and-forth conversation between myself and Jon Steiner of WFNY. While I’ll stop short of saying that we’re attempting to replicate the old “Rob and Rany” days when Neyer and Jazayerli would wax poetic on their Royals, the concept is the same as we may agree on a given topic or may take wildly divergent approaches to a particular aspect of the Indians. After this initial run-through, I’m hoping that you find it as thought-provoking and enjoyable as we did as it attempts to crystallize specific viewpoints and serves as the back-and-forth banter that many enjoy…just at a little higher level of obsession and expertise.

That all being said, the first topic that Jon and I decided to delve into is the oft-discussed 3B “issue” for the Indians (which has been covered nearly ad nauseum and nowhere more in depth than by TCF’s own Steve Buffum, who is now up to 8 pieces JUST ON THIS TOPIC, all of which you access on his writer page on TCF) , with Jon taking the stance that the Indians don’t necessarily need to add anything significant to their 3B mix and me standing at the other podium.

Enjoy…

JON: I just don’t see the point in adding a third baseman. It’s not that we don’t need one--we certainly do. Rather, I’m not sure what appreciable good a “stopgap” does us during the nadir of a rebuild. So sure, K-squared might be able to shore up the defense at third (though I’m not totally sold on even that), but to what end? This seems to be one of those “marginal improvement” type moves that doesn’t really get us any closer to where we need to be, but rather throws the masses a bone so that they stop griping about Nix et al. If we both feel--and correct me if I’m wrong--that the future third baseman is already in the system somewhere--then why add Kouz? I would argue that Kouzmanoff might add a win or two. If we were a fringe-playoff team, by all means, go for it.

But we’re not. So I say keep the spot semi-open so that if--and it’s a big if--Phelps or Chiz or even Goedert take off this spring, we have major league at bats for them to continue developing. Perhaps I’m snake-bitten, but these non-impact signings scare me. There are images of Trots and Jasons and Davids dancing through my head.

PAUL: I suppose that the impact over “marginal improvement” to me would come solely in the form of defense and would have more of an effect on the pitching staff, as opposed to strictly whose in the lineup as the 3B. With the glut of groundball pitchers (and young ones at that), I’d prefer to see the Indians load up their infield defense with great gloves (and maybe get Asdrubal on a running track to see if he can find his “great glove” among the cinders on the track) and I see the leader in the clubhose - Nix - as being more of a detriment to the development of the young pitchers. Admittedly, some of that is based on an unfairly small sample last year, when Nix was essentially playing out of position, but I’m going to have to be shown that a Winter Ball excursion at 3B is enough to make us think of him as a “2B playing 3B” on most plays to the Hot Corner to think that Nix is even a suitable “stop-gap”.

The only real cause for the K2 Train (with me throwing coal into the engine, apparently) is that he has somehow evolved into a competent defensive 3B (according to metrics I don’t trust and the Fielding Bible panel, which I do trust) and I think that if he’s non-tendered, he fits the profile of a guy that they can get on the cheap to stick in there until The Chiz is ready. If Kouzmanoff is going to cost $3M to $4M a year, then you move onto the “Blake/LaRocca/Selby” derby redux in Spring Training with Nix and Phelps and whatever other AAAA guy that they can find that has a slick glove to throw into the mix so the Tribe can bide time until The Chiz is ready. If there’s a guy who is Brooks Robinson with the glove, but can’t hit a lick, somewhere in the Minors, I’d bring him in and give him a legit shot to improve the infield defense, which is at the crux of the crusade to upgrade 3B. Trust me, I would never want “images of Trots and Jasons and Davids” to enter anyone’s head unnecessarily and I see a Kouzmanoff non-tender (assuming he’s non-tendered) more in line with the Kearns deal last year that essentially bought Mike Brantley (and the team) time to allow things to flesh out.

Another factor in this 3B situation is that most people just assume that Lonnie Chisenhall will follow the Carlos Santana path to be in Cleveland in 2011. But what if he isn’t?

The fallback options are Nix (whose better suited to be a super-utility RH bat with some pop) and Phelps (who last played 3B at Stanford...and we all saw how Nix adjusted there), so are you really all that confident in Nix and Phelps to hold down the fort if - knocking firmly on wood - Chisenhall doesn’t dominate AAA to force himself up the I-71 corridor to Cleveland next year?

JON: I actually agree with you on most counts here. Let me plagiarize them one at a time:

Infield defense benefits our pitchers, and K2 should be an upgrade.
Yes to the first. Probably yes to the second. Though if we’re talking about helping our pitchers, are we talking about making them “more confident” or “demonstrably better”? I’m dubious about these sorts of claims, though I suppose anything’s possible.

K2 (or whoever) could come in at about $3 to $4 million if he’s non-tendered. Probably, yes. And it should be said, $4 million dollars is about the going rate in free agency for a win. I tend to think this is an inefficient use of resources, especially for a team that’s not likely to contend.

If we had an internal, defensively strong 3B, this is a different story.
Sure thing. I agree that we do not.

Chiz might not be ready: don’t let Carlos Santana warp your perception of an MLB learning curve.
Indeed. I think we all were spoiled by that debut. But I would also say that I don’t like the FO telling me that Santana’s “defense wasn’t ready” when they really meant that they wanted an extra year of control. Perhaps they’ll want to manage some service clocks (something that can be done with Nix), but I don’t like the run-around. And anyway, if we’re going all-in on Chiz at some point, how much does it matter when we do it? We’ve given LaPorta a long leash because we believe he (has to be?) is the answer. At some point, you’ll have to do the same with someone at third.

But regardless, I’m talking about building a contender. And, at least to me, it’s clear that any short-term addition won’t be part of that contender. Rather, he’d be a band-aid. Now, you might say that we have to stop the bleeding. I guess that’s true, but I’m not sure why it would be. To me, the upside of a defensive stopgap at 3B is a couple wins in 2011; the downside is the hindered development of players that, rightly or wrongly, we’re going to have to sink or swim with for the next decade. I’d rather throw my chips in on the latter bet, no matter how unlikely it might be that an addition would hurt them. It’s just not a risk I want to take.

Does the advantage of an addition boil down to this: our pitchers will develop some confidence and we might win a game or two more next season? If that’s the case, I don’t want him. If there’s more, my ears are open.

PAUL: Let’s be clear as K2 at $4M is definitely not something that I’m interested in (and I’m not convinced he gets that on the open market if he’s non-tendered) as it is certainly represents the “inefficient use of resources” that you assert. My argument hinges on the development of those pitchers that “rightly or wrongly, we’re going to have to sink or swim with for the next decade” in that I’m more concerned about those guys finding MLB success as soon as possible and putting a credible infield defense behind them goes a long way to achieving that goal.

Could we have The Chiz up here on Opening Day to play 3B? Sure, but if he struggles out of the gate, we’re back to the Nix and Phelps show, with Chisenhall going to AAA to build up some career momentum again. Sure, LaPorta has struggled (and they haven’t really given him much of a long leash), but he’s a solid 5 years older than Lonnie, with a prospect pedigree that Chisenhall will probably never touch.

I think that we’re both talking about building a sustainable contender, and I guess that gets to the final question of adding a player allowing “our pitchers (to) develop some confidence” resulting in a extra “win or two more next season” as I see the long-term effect of upgrading that infield defense, even for half a year, could have a greater impact than simply a win or two next season because of that confidence gained. Again, if the price tag for that is going to be $3M or $4M, I pass...but I think that the Indians can find a player that would upgrade the left side of their infield defense for less than that and provide the insurance (and another external option) to allow Chisenhall to at least taste AAA.

JON: And yeah, I should be clear too: avoiding an acquisition is not my way of suggesting that Chisenhall--or any other minor leaguer--should start the season in Cleveland. In my plan, Nix is the primary option (what a terrible way to start a sentence!), with full knowledge that at least three guys might be able to give him some competition by June.

If, on the other hand, we sign an external guy for anything more than $2 million, the front office will likely feel the need to play that guy, regardless of whether the smarter thing to do might be give some of the younger guys some exposure/time to adjust to big league pitching.

PAUL: Let’s say that Nix is the primary option then if you’re not bringing in anyone significant. Do you basically given Phelps and Nix a shot at a two-man race in Goodyear with the idea that it’s Nix’s job to lose? Or do you bring in the Bill Selbys and...gulp, Casey Blakes (v. 2003) of the world to press these guys?

If it’s the former, I sure hope his 3B glove hasn’t left his hand this Winter...

A Snowy Lazy Sunday and Victor

With the Indians in the third row of the Cleveland Sports car or maybe even the car top carrier in the equation (because to say they’re in the backseat doesn’t paint an accurate enough picture), the off-season rolls on in earnest and there’s still plenty to discuss and dissect even if it has little to do with the Indians and player acquisition. Unless you’re following this Zach Duke-to-Arizona “situation” as breathlessly as I am – as he could be still non-tendered by the D-Backs if they’re not able to reach an agreement with him on a reduced salary – and crossing your fingers so hard that you hope that your circulation isn’t affected, things have remained quiet on the North Coast.

In all seriousness (and, yes I’m joking on Zach Duke…sort of), the only thing occurring on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario is the Indians’ inaugural Snow Days event, which opened on Friday for “Snopening Day”, attended by yours truly with the fam and the in-laws for some winter fun. Since most have read some sort of article on the concept and the execution of it somewhere (as Tribe writers have had little else to write about), from an attendee’s standpoint who took two young boys there, Snow Days is a smashing success.

Upon arrival (and signing of a waiver for all attendees), once you determine which attractions you want to get a pass for (the “Batterhorn” is the tubing portion and the “Frozen Mile” is the skating portion that require specific passes and cost more), you enter into a fully transformed Progressive Field, with scenes from “A Christmas Story” and other holiday classics on the JumboTron, right next to a feed showing the tubing (on a 30-second delay so you can watch your “run” when you get to the bottom) and with Christmas music and decorations everywhere.

Since my sons are too small for any of the tubing or skating attractions, we simply purchased the “Entry” pass ($5 a head), which they attach to your zipper on your coat as if you were going skiing. We made our way down to the field level and made our way through the hay maze (in short left field) and climbed around on the man-made snow piles (in deeper left field) as The DiaTot took cleaner routes to his snowball target (his old man) than Trevor Crow did to his glove target (the flying ball) did all season.

It being in the low 30’s, The DiaBride took her parents and The DiaperTribe up to The Terrace Club, which was open for anyone to enjoy and warm up while overlooking the entirety of the festivities…and that is the shot from the TC on Friday night. After the 3-year-old got cold enough, we joined them in The Terrace Club and, from that vantage point, saw that there was access to the Indians’ dugout and (after finishing some hot chocolate) made our way back down to the field level and ran to the home dugout.

Once in the dugout, we did what 3-year-olds and their fathers do unencumbered and unsupervised in an MLB dugout in pretending to grab a bat from the bat rack and a helmet from the helmet cubbies, went out to the “on-deck circle”, then pretended to hit walk-off HR after walk-off HR, complete with head-pounding celebrations when running back into the other side of the dugout. When the faces became redder and the text from The DiaBride arrived from the Terrace Club that we were off to go grab dinner somewhere, we made our way out of the stadium with promises to return.

While the concept of “Snow Days” has been ridiculed in the circles that enjoy ridiculing the Indians and…well, anything that they do, the experience is one that is unique and entertaining for all ages. As downtown Cleveland sits dormant most nights in the Winter, it represents a very real attempt at livening up a sleeping city on non-Cavs nights by enticing people down to embrace their region and their weather. The execution of “Snow Days” is very well-done and, while the fire pit was not yet operational on “Snopening Day”, the prospect of sitting down at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario around a hearth with some friends and family is an appealing option for those who generally go into lock-down mode in November and December (and beyond) once the weather gets cold.

Though the wailers and teeth-gnashers will complain that the Indians should be spending money in the SUMMER and not in the WINTER, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if other cold-weather stadiums turn into similar winter wonderlands in the coming years, with the trail being blazed by the Indians. What “Snow Days” means to the bottom line of the Indians is not something that I’m even interested in taking a guess at as it represents a fun family environment in a region and at a time in which they aren’t easy to come by.

If you’re going to ask whether the proceeds from “Snow Days” mean that the Indians are going to be more active on the Free Agent market, you’re asking the wrong guy as I’m too busy planning the next trip down there to see if I can get my 3-year-old on the mini-“Batterhorn” (yes, there’s a smaller one specifically for kids) with me.

Nevertheless (and with the longest Lazy Sunday intro finally done), it is Sunday and that does mean that we turn our gaze to the Indians in this space. Of course, since nothing is happening with the Indians, perhaps it may be more instructive to (eventually) turn our attention to former Indians and soon-to-be-division-rivals.

As a segue to that and keeping with the “all the news that’s fit to link” premise, Baseball America ran an article and player breakdown detailing the devolution of the Tribe in the past 3 years in terms of player movement, specifically mapping out how the 2007 team turned into the 2010 team. As depressing as looking at all of those names is, I’ll go back to the little exercise last Sunday that put dollar amounts as to what the team that ostensibly broke 2008 Spring Training will earn this year...and it will be $113.6M that the 2008 Tribe will earn for various teams without a 5th starter, a bullpen, or a bench.

By now you know where this segue is going as one of those “cashed-in chips” is returning to the AL Central as El Capitan has joined the Detroit Tigers, where he will visit the corner of Carnegie and Ontario (with Jhonny Peralta) not only as an opponent, but as a division rival.

Any mention of Victor around these parts immediately conjure up visions of Victor sitting in his locker crying saying that he “was leaving his house” when the trade was consummated in July of 2009 while his son asked him, “are we still an Indian”. Wiping away a tear, those two images still pull at the heartstrings around the North Coast as Victor, more than any other player on those late-2000s teams felt like he was different in that he wanted to be an Indian for life…like he understood what it was to be a Clevelander.

With news that Victor will visit Cleveland representing another AL Central team, it evokes the question again that wouldn’t it be great if the Indians had kept Martinez and if he represented the bedrock of the organization, regardless of total team payroll or expectations coming into an individual season?

To that end, I’m reminded of a piece debating whether Martinez fit past 2010 that was written two weeks before he was traded in this space. As painful as the conclusion was (and it is worth a read, particularly in hindsight), it detailed how he didn’t really fit into the team’s long-term plans once Hafner signed his extension and after the CC and Blake trades were made, nor did the idea of extending him make much financial sense.

Could you say that the “mistake” of signing Hafner in 2007 and the slow start in 2008 that led to the trades of CC and Casey that resulted in Santana, LaPorta, and Brantley entering the organization essentially led us to this place, where Victor didn’t make sense as an Indian past 2010?

Of course, but we all know how this ended up and please don’t take this as a defense of moving Victor, the heart-and-soul of that late-2000s team (and, remember that this is the place that you saw the love letter saying goodbye after his departure) as emotion will continue to play a role with Victor, particularly because he’ll be playing in the AL Central.

But baseball is a business (as much as we all abhor that part of it) and to that end, also included in the aforementioned piece is a bit on Martinez’s value as a C and his diminished value as a 1B and (though I didn’t mention it in the piece) as a DH. Regardless, it appears as if DH will be where he’s plying his trade in the Motor City…at least according to them. With his new position change in mind, how about looking at Martinez’s offensive production as it relates to the rest of the AL from a positional standpoint, at least in the last two years:
2009
Victor – .861 OPS
Average AL C – .721 OPS
Average AL 1B – .830 OPS
Average AL DH – .779 OPS

2010
Victor – .844 OPS
Average AL C – .684 OPS
Average AL 1B – .786 OPS
Average AL DH – .757 OPS

You see now how Victor’s bat is exceptional when he’s catching and merely above-average when he’s playing 1B or merely the DH?

If you’re thinking about Vic the Stick and the Tribe, perhaps you want to make the case that LaPorta and Brantley (or even Weglarz) weren’t/aren’t promising enough to the point that the Indians shouldn’t have been able to find a place for Martinez to remain an Indian. In light of 2010 performance (particularly by LaPorta), that argument is not without merit, nor is the idea that Victor’s offensive numbers improve without the wear and tear that comes from donning the tools of ignorance.

However, he will turn 32 next month and the Indians essentially cast their lot with Santana and LaPorta at C and 1B when Blake and Sabathia were dealt and the continued presence of Hafner as DH means that paying $10M to $12M a year to a 1B/DH who will be in his 30s throughout the life of his contract just didn’t add up for the Indians.

Certainly, Victor could have been useful to Indians this past year and probably for the next couple of years, but the Red Sox let Victor walk when the years involved became too far out in the future and as the money involved went up.

Yes, THE RED SOX – not your lowly, also-ran Indians – thought that the years and money were too high! Their reasoning was articulated by Alex Speier of WEEI, who wrote:
Multiple Red Sox sources indicated they felt that, even with the strides that Martinez made this year to perform at a respectable level, he is unlikely to remain a viable everyday catcher for more than two more seasons. After that, he would likely be consigned to duty as a designated hitter and first baseman. When that happens, his value will drop precipitously.
--snip--
If he does remain behind the plate, Martinez could face a steep offensive decline. Catchers do not gradually see their performance drop in their mid-30s. Instead, they see it get tied to a Looney Tunes-style anvil tossed into a canyon around the age of 35.
That being the case, the last year of Martinez’ deal stands a good chance of fair chance of being a poor investment.

Remember that whole positional value thing up above?
It’s the reason that SI.com’s Tim Marchman wrote that, “signing a 32-year-old catcher is by definition something you do because you want immediate benefit, and finishing in third place with 84 wins rather than 81 isn’t really much of a benefit” and that “the Tigers will either be sitting a talented kid (Alex Avila) or using Martinez as their main designated hitter, which would be a terrible waste, as while he’s a strong hitter for a catcher, there are several comparable hitters on the market who would cost nothing close to $50 million.”

At some point, his production will drop and the drop is palatable from a catcher (somewhat), it becomes much more pronounced when he’s going to be the 1B or DH. Yes, it’s true that drop may not come this year or next, but when Rob Neyer writes things like “If Martinez can’t (or won’t be allowed to) catch, he’s not worth the money the Tigers gave him. He’s not really worth what the Red Sox supposedly offered him, either (three years, $36 million, or four and $40 million)” as well as asserting that “If you make a list of the 100 worst moves in the last 30 years, you’re going to find a few trades and a bumper crop of contracts given to free agents in their 30s”, something the Red Sox have figured out and are now avoiding, you start to realize that the Tigers are taking a big risk with Martinez, one that they’ll have to allow to play out.

If you want to make the argument that Victor possessed a value that goes beyond numbers to Cleveland and that the Indians should have be taking an inordinate amount of risk by extending him, that’s fine as long as you acknowledge that the feeling is coming from your heart and not your head because of the positional value concept and that you’re ignoring that Santana is likely to put up better offensive numbers than Victor this year. Trust me, nobody’s questioning that it will be difficult to see him stride to the plate at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario with that Old English “D” on his hat, just as it was difficult to see him wear the polyester of that team from New England.

Victor conjures up many emotions and those emotions will continue to come as a member of the Tigers, regardless of whether his contract looks like a bargain or a bust in hindsight. What is troubling however, is the way that Victor’s signing by the Tigers and Detroit’s largesse thus far in the off-season is being presented as some sort of referendum on the Indians’ off-season.

While Terry Pluto is unsurprisingly a dissenting voice of reason in the media when he says that the Tigers are “the one team in the Central that continually spends beyond the bottom line and is not afraid to rack up financial losses”, most of the local reaction has been to frame the Victor signing as a simple math problem in that the Tigers are spending money to catch the Twins while the Indians sit on their hands.

But looking at the money that they’ve spent, would you be comfortable with the signings that they’ve made, regardless of big-market/small-market distinction?

The Victor deal, which has been largely questioned on a national level because of the committed years and dollars to a player that looks to be either their 1B or DH for the next five years...

Peralta, who will receive $11.25M in the next two years from the Tigers (and let’s all repeat this slowly) to...play...shortstop...

Joaquin Benoit, who will receive $16.5M over the course of 3 years despite the fact that he missed the entire 2009 season and posted a 1.67 WHIP and a 5.00 ERA in 2008, walking nearly as many hitters (35) as he struck out (43) in 2008...

The fact is that Detroit has been a one-team-wrecking crew on the FA market, if you simply take a look at the FA signings that are on the books so far this off-season. If it’s too early for you to do the math yourself from that link, here is the breakdown:
Detroit FA spending - $77,750,000
THE REST OF MLB FA spending - $79,700,000

Yeah, seriously…
And, we all know that Lee and Crawford and Werth and Beltre are going to add to that second total, but realize that the Tigers are probably not done yet and could add an OF (perhaps Werth) or maybe a reliever, so their spending spree may not yet be over.

Realizing that the relevance of money spent and victories is a…let’s say, sore subject around these parts, how about examining how the Tigers have fared since their WS loss in 2006, in terms of their win totals and their payrolls?
2007: 88-74 (2nd in Central) - $95,180,369 payroll

2008: 74-88 (last in Central) - $137,685,196 payroll

2009: 86-77 (2nd in Central) - $115,085,145 payroll

2010: 81-81 (3rd in Central) - $133,995,400 payroll

That’s an average of a $120,486,527 payroll and all of 82 wins a season, never hitting the 90-win mark since that 2006 season. With the addition of Victor, they’re now looking at about a $100.9M payroll as it stands right now and, as mentioned before, they may be adding Jayson Werth (Scott Boras client alert) or retaining the services of Mags Ordonez while still looking to upgrade their bullpen.

This is not all pointed out to guffaw from afar at the strategy of the Tigers and their inability to spend money wisely or even that these additions of Victor and Jhonny and Benoit aren’t going to catapult the Tigers into obvious contention for the AL Central. Rather, it’s to point out the difference in the manner by which the Tigers and the Indians attempt to go about building a winner.

Sure, the Tigers have spent more money and are certainly more aggressive (and more successful) in trading their young players and prospects, but since the 2005 season both teams have made the playoffs once. Without being catty and pointing out that the Tigers’ 2006 playoff appearance is the organization’s only since 1987, how about this:
The Tigers have won 495 games since the start of the 2005 season
The Indians have won 482 since the start of the 2005 season

In that time, the Tigers have spent $633.65M on payroll, with their best teams in 2006 and 2007 coming with the lower payrolls. Meanwhile, the Tribe has spent $339.7M on payroll, with (say it with me) their best teams in 2005 and 2007 again coming in at some of the lowest payroll numbers.

Does FA spending equal victories?
Of course not, as titles are won at the beginning of November (now)…not at the end of November.

While “titles” are not likely to be in the offing in Cleveland (or Detroit) next season, the fact that the swirling snow – and not any swirling rumors – is the most newsworthy happening at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario make this Indians’ off-season one that make it hard to enjoy for Tribe fans…unless, of course, you’re blazing down the “Batterhorn”.

Money Talks on A Lazy Sunday

An absence of activity.
No, I speak not of the news (or lack thereof) that has originated from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this off-season; rather, I speak of The Reservation here as my brother and his wife picked up the two boys yesterday to give their sleep-deprived parents a night off from parenting. With nearly 24 hours to ourselves in our own house, let me just say that there are watershed moments in the life of an adult that force a self-realization that may not be unexpected, but may be so forceful that it cannot be avoided. That being said, we used the time to hit Pier W’s marvelous Happy Hour, then a dinner at Don’s Lighthouse…and were home on the couch by 7:30 PM. And we were thrilled about it. Gone is the idea that we need to burn the midnight oil after being given a “free pass” for a night and sitting in our laps is the fact that we are happier about getting 8 to 10 hours of uninterrupted sleep than we are about hitting any new hot spot.

Thus, it truly is a “Lazy” Sunday around these parts as we have slept in (well, 8 AM…but that is “sleeping in”) and as I write this, there is not a 3-year-old bouncing a soft Indians’ ball off of my head, begging me to see the video of Andy Marte pitching, which makes him laugh harder than any Pixar offering. However, as refreshing as the peace and tranquility is, it’s almost TOO quiet and we’re already counting down the hours until we can go down to my brother’s house and play with them this afternoon.

It’s my life…and I wouldn’t have it any other way.
Nevertheless, off of the psychiatrist’s couch and into the writer’s chair, let’s get going on a Lazy Sunday, starting off with some appetizers before getting into the main course – the part of the meal when you’re checking the prices on the menu…

On the subject of player acquisition, if you remember the whole “Roadmap for the Off-Season” from a month ago…wow, a month ago, one suggestion was to add some arms that could be available if they were non-tendered, with the Pirates’ Zach Duke being the example used. Well, Zach Duke has been non-tendered in all of his LH glory from the Pirates and while the shouts will come from the rooftops that Duke has been non-tendered BY THE PIRATES and had a 5.43 ERA, realize that his peripheral stats in 2010 were more or less in line with those from his previous two seasons, when he posted ERA’s of 4.82 and 4.06.

Were the Pirates right not to want to pay Duke the $5M he would have earned in the arbitration process?
Absolutely, but if the Indians can get him on one of their low-base, incentive-laden deals and let Tim Belcher and company have at it, the Indians’ LH options could be upgraded over the likes of Dave Huff and Aaron Laffey.

As for the “Kouzmanoff Watch”, since Terry Pluto has latched onto the idea (a bit over a month from when it was first suggested here), let me be clear here on Kouzmanoff, lest anyone think that I’m wearing a cheerleader outfit and holding pom-poms for K2 specifically. The reality is that, after surveying the scene, I simply made the suggestion of K2 because I fail to see a better alternative out there in terms of upgrading the defense over the likes of Nix and Phelps.

Is K2 someone that the Indians should be looking to pencil in on the lineup card for the next 3 years?
No, but that’s also not what they’re looking for. If they’re looking for a stop-gap (and they should be) that provides better defense (and they BETTER be) while not breaking the bank (and that’s why I like Kouzmanoff ONLY as a non-tender, not a trade option because the Tribe would be paying him $4M unnecessarily if they traded for him), then K2 is the best I see out there.

From the pipe dream category of player acquisition, it seems that the Indians are on Justin Upton’s no-trade list…so those dreams of turning Huff, Crowe, and Goedert into Upton remain just that – dreams in the sky. As for the notion that the Indians will be able to turn a package like that (and “Huff, Crowe, and Goedert” is just an example), let’s realize that the rest of MLB is probably aware of what we – as Indians’ fans are – in terms of which of the Indians’ prospects are compelling and which are even just “sort of interesting”.

To that “sort-of-interesting” end, Adam Van Arsdale rolls on with his terrific prospect series over at the LGT, with an overview of the pitching prospects and a look at hitters, both high-performing and “sort-of-interesting” coming out and putting some great perspective on the Indians’ farm system. Since we’re talking prospects, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Call to the Pen Top 100 piece that I mentioned a few days ago released their Top 10 and…the top Tribe prospect was Jason Knapp as the top ranked prospect at #11, so no Kipnis or Chisenhall in that particular Top 100 list.

Other than the acquisition speculation (much of it user-generated) and the 40-man decisions (which always seem overblown to me as we’re talking about the fringes of the roster and given the fact that the Indians have been WILDLY successful in protecting the “right” players to prevent major losses), the big news of the week remains The BLC likely earning his military exemption by leading South Korea to an Asian Games championship.

While his performance probably merits more than just that cursory mention, the most exciting thing to me about his tenure as a player for South Korea is his jersey. If I may make a suggestion, can we have the Tribe #17 jersey PLEASE read “SS CHOO” on the back starting next year?

Admitting that I have no idea as to whatever language reasons exist for the “SS CHOO” to appear on the back of his South Korean jersey, if I wore a 2X (and two of me wouldn’t), this would be on my Christmas list.

Of course, since Clevelanders are never content to simply take good news as just that (and can we get this guy to the post-season if that’s how he performs under pressure), news that Choo’s military exemption was likely to be waived resulted not in happiness or relief from most corners. No, it prompted the obligatory, “well, now the Indians can trade him” and “that will increase his trade value” from what seems to be the growing voice of discontent this off-season as it pertains to the Indians.
If you think that the discontent is overblown by some or simply a vocal minority, consider the requisite firestorm that was set off (and it should have come to no surprise to anyone) by the payroll discussion with Paul Dolan, as his unfortunate comments to the PD basically provided a few million gallons of gas to the flaming madness among the cle.commer crowd. In case you missed the comments (and I can’t imagine that you did), Dolan’s exact comments were as follows:
“It’s not the right time to spend. No question about that. It’s not the right time to spend in the cycle of this franchise. The spending is deficit spending. When New York and Boston spend, they’re spending from their profits. It’s a riskier proposition for clubs like us to spend. We’re taking a far greater financial risk than whatever it is a large-market club spends on a large free agent. It’s the unfortunate nature of our game.”

Oof.
For an Indians’ organization, that has “consultants” for everything down to what kind of relish to offer, somebody’s coming up with “talking points” here if Dolan’s going to sit down with the PD on payroll in an attempt to mollify the masses. That being the case, I’m not sure who’s laying out the talking points for Dolan, but they should be fired as this talk of “cycles” and size of clubs has run it’s course over the last two years.

People get that the Indians are attempting to build back up and that they can’t (and shouldn’t) compete with the Yankees and the Red Sox, particularly on FA. Every time they bring up this inequality in MLB (which is valid, to a degree), the critics point to the Twins or the Rays or whatever small-market team (and Minnesota isn’t small-market anymore with Target Field) is currently thriving in MLB. The problem is how they’re framing it, and how they’ve been framing it…to no measure of success.

Every time the Indians open their mouths on this payroll situation, the problem is exacerbated because they’re coming out with the same lines that we’ve heard since Lee and Martinez were traded and all of it deals in very vague concepts and comes off sounding desperate and defeated. They must agree to these interviews thinking that they’ll be able to clarify why they’re not going to spend on FA or why they’re not going to be involved in major player acquisition this off-season, only to watch the flames of public opinion get fanned to the point that they get engulfed further in the inferno.

Let me be clear as I’m not blaming the PD for taking this absolute softball thrown at them by the Indians (and the PD did hit it out of the park in terms of how it was framed), because the blame doesn’t rest in a writer like Hoynes for passing along this old, tired, ill-conceived bit of salesmanship that keeps coming from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

If it’s not clear enough, the Indians have a MAJOR public relations issue and their endless circular explanations that, as I said, come off as “desperate” and “defeated” do nothing to change the issue as their messages feel like they’re talking down to fans and are so defensive against further criticism that it only CREATES more opportunity for criticism.

If Dolan is going to say “it’s not the right time to spend”, how about using the rationale that there aren’t options on the FA market that they feel represent a significant upgrade over their internal talent? Remember last week when I linked the Royals’ GM comment on Kansas City’s approach to FA?
“Our stance on potentially adding something (major through free agency) “is it would really have to fit long term. That guy doesn’t exist right now, and I don’t know who that would be.
“We’re not just going to add somebody to make our payroll higher for one year.”

Never would I suggest that the Indians should look to the Royals (who have had THREE winning records since 1990 and the highest win total among those THREE winning seasons is 84 in 1993) for advice on how to run their franchise or manage the public’s perception of it – but compare those two statements as one puts off a defensive and desperate and tell me which one sounds like they have confidence in their internal players and smacks of logic?

Remember the whole “Flipping the Script” idea from a couple of weeks ago, when it was suggested here that they should be trumpeting this young talent?
Use the bully pulpit from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario again to move away from the talk that “this is a rebuilding year again” and say that young in-house talent are unequivocally the players that are going to lead the Indians to their next appearance in the playoffs. If the Front Office TRULY believes it, come out and declare that the assembled young talent at all levels will prevent the team from going into this valley again.

The truth is that the Indians SHOULD NOT be spending on the FA that are going to be the mid-level FA available in this market and they should be leaning on the development of their young players, the way they did in 1991 and in 2003 to build something that could be sustainable. Wouldn’t the suggestion above go hand-in-hand with the hands-off approach that they are taking (and should be taking) on this FA market?

As mind-numbingly absurd as the “payroll message” from the Indians is, it’s not even the most frustrating aspect of this whole endeavor though, as the wailers and the teeth-gnashers are going to do just that, regardless of what comes out of anyone’s mouth whose place of “business” is at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

No, what gets lost in the “woe-is-me-in-MLB” tripe or the assertion that the Indians are “taking a far greater financial risk than whatever it is a large-market club spends on a large free agent” (because, you know, we get that idea when Travis Hafner lumbers to the plate 4 out of every 5 games) are the actual numbers that are in play here. By that I mean that if you take the time to read the entire PD piece regarding payroll, it proclaims that the Indians are only going to be spending between $50M and $59M on the team.
Harrumph, harrumph...I didn’t get a harrumph out of that guy, right?

Well, they spent $61.5M on the team last year and no longer count Wood, Westbrook, and Peralta (most notably) on their ledger...so, the payroll will drop between $2.5M and $11.5M despite the fact that those three aforementioned players (who “earned” $26.35M in 2010) will not be Indians next year.

Let me put that out there again, the Indians’ payroll was $61.5M last year and $26.35M was for Westbrook, Wood, and Peralta. Those three players are no longer Indians and the payroll looks to be dropping between $2.5M and $11.5M.

Is the “$50M to $59M” payroll number light years away from the $81.5 that they spent in 2009?
Of course, but that $81.5M number in 2009 also represented $17M that the team ADDED from the 2008 payroll when they acquired Wood, DeRosa, and Hot Carl Pavano in an attempt to keep that team (with Lee, Martinez, Sizemore, etc) in contention for a couple of more years…or at least that year.

Fans in Cleveland know all too well about the best-laid plans going awry in hindsight, but (and I don’t know the psychology of this) they LOVE the idea of a winner being built. The Indians should be exploiting this oddity of the psyche of the average Clevelander and should be pointing out that the Giants won the World Series because of home-grown pitchers and that the Indians are attempting to create a similar situation, one that they already did when they went into the mid-to-late 2000s with two players who would win the Cy Young Award.

Instead, the Indians put on this wall, and maybe that has something to do with the idea that they’re afraid of being wrong, but if the team REALLY wants to put forth the idea of “cycles”, maybe they should point to the same sequential listing of payrolls that I know I’ve referred to far too many times as it is instructive:
2011: $ 56,900,000
2010: $ 61,453,967
2009: $ 81,579,166
2008: $ 78,970,066
2007: $ 61,673,267
2006: $ 56,031,500
2005: $ 41,502,500
2004: $ 34,319,300
2003: $ 48,584,834
2002: $ 78,909,499
2001: $ 93,360,000

If you’re wondering where I’m coming up with that 2011 number, it comes courtesy of the fabulous breakdown of the Indians’ payroll commitments for the next few years at Baseball Reference..and while you’re there, take a look at those projected payrolls for the next few years, bumped by increasing salaries, options and arbitration.

See that incremental rise up from 2004 ($34,319,300) to the peak of 2009 ($81,579,166)?
That’s what the Indians are probably going to do for a while and if 2011 represents the lowest “valley” in that landscape, how about pointing out that the 2011 “valley” is about $25M higher than the one in 2004, the year that laid the groundwork for the 2007 AL Central Flag?

Don’t mistake this as a defense for the Dolans as they have made glaring errors in terms of promoting mediocrity and allowing the status quo to persist when the status quo is unproductive in terms of the Amateur Draft, but this prevailing notion that they should have just spent money in order to have just kept the 2007 team together, or at least the team that started 2008 ignores the whole idea of how contracts and FA works.

To wit, want to know what the team that started the 2008 season will earn in 2011 from their various (and prospective) employers?
CC - $23M
Lee – $21M
Westbrook - $8M
Carmona - $6.1M

Fangraphs’ crowdsourcing has CP making $21M per year (and I think that’s probably pretty conservative)…so, that’s $58.1M that the top four in the 2008 Opening Day rotation will earn in 2011.

While most fans view Pavano as a “lucky hit” for 2009, if you want to throw Pavano in there, crowdsourcing put a guess on Pavano at $9M per year, so if you add that guess for Pavano (and that number for Lee is a guess) to the numbers that are firm and you’re talking about a rotation that would cost $67.1M, which is a higher number than the estimated payrolls (as per B-Ref) for NINE teams in MLB in 2011.

Regardless, we’ll keep it just to the 2008 team and say that the top four in the 2008 Opening Day rotation will earn around $60M in 2011…

Want to keep going?
How about adding the salaries for the players that essentially started the 2008 season as Indians and how the payroll for that team would look:
Shoppach - $3M
Martinez - $12M
Cabrera - $2M
Peralta - $5.25M
Blake - $5.25M
Choo - $3.5M
Sizemore - $7.5M
Gutierrez - $4M
Hafner - $13M

The Cabrera guess is off of what Erick Aybar received in his first year of arbitration eligibility, the Choo number comes from a comp to what Ryan Ludwick received a couple of years ago and the Victor guess comes via Fangraphs’ crowdsourcing.

If you’re keeping score at home (and if you really are...we may need to talk), that lineup comes with a $55.5M price tag. Add that $55.5M for the 2008 lineup today with the $58.1M for the top four in the 2008 rotation (that’s without Pavano) and that’s $113.6M for your 2008 Indians in 2011...minus a 5th starter, a bullpen, and a bench.

Hefty numbers, no doubt, but let’s all remember that THOSE players compiled a record of 37-51 (14 GB) in 2008 when CC was traded and 45-58 (14 GB) when Lacey Cake was dealt...those two players will earn $28.5M this year.

The Tribe lost CC and Blake in 2008 and added Wood, DeRosa, and Pavano before 2009 and THOSE players compiled a record of 43-60 (11 GB) in 2009 when CP Lee and El Capitan exited stage right and were 47-62 (11.5 GB) when Pavano became a Twin...and those three players could earn $42M this year.

With the majority of those 2008 and 2009 teams out the door (and Gutz and ShopVac were off-season deals), the Indians were 42-59 (14.5 GB) last year when they dealt Peralta and were 43-61 (15.5 GB) a couple of days later when Westbrook made his way to St. Louis...those players will earn $13.25M this year.

As much as “keeping the band together” from Opening Day of 2008 may look like it was a certain recipe for consistent contention, there was never a “White Flag” deal done as the Indians made trades when they were more than 10 games back of the division leader.

While this is all sobering to analyze in the downswing of where the Indians are, if you’re going back to look at those payrolls though and looking at the build-up from 2011 to whenever (2016?) the same way that it increased from 2004 to 2009 – because the Indians’ young players are developing and have earned bigger paychecks – THAT is what the Dolans should be out in front touting, the development of their own players and the resulting money that will be spent as this group of youngsters congeals and matures.

Despite the fact that those SHOULD be the “talking points”, the Indians are reticent (or unaware) of how to manage the public perception nightmare that they have on their hand. As a result, short of them rattling off a sudden and consistent winner on the field for the next few years that energizes their fans in spite of their feelings toward ownership or the Front Office, if they’re continually reading those “talking points” out of the same book from which they’ve been reading in an attempt to engage their fan base…the end of the story is going to remain the same, with apathy and an empty ballpark being the result.

Into the Crystal Ball

While the North Coast rejoices South Korea defeating Taiwan in the Asian Games...you know, because it means that The BLC is now officially exempt from his military obligation, and in lieu of anything substantial to talk about in terms of player acquisition for the parent club, let's keep that attention turned to the internal development that is so important to the development of the Indians in the coming years.

With that in mind, since Top Prospect Lists are going to start arriving en masse here (and the Baseball Prospectus one is probably coming next week), let's start off with the Top 10 list for the Tribe that was released by Baseball America earlier in the week:
1. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b
2. Alex White, rhp
3. Jason Kipnis, 2b
4. Drew Pomeranz, lhp
5. Nick Weglarz, of
6. Jason Knapp, rhp
7. Levon Washington, of
8. Tony Wolters, ss
9. Joe Gardner, rhp
10. Nick Hagadone, lhp

Essentially ten names you've probably seen before with a ranking to them as these are always interesting to a point as the names are all generally familiar, although a number of these rankings that don't include some sort of contextualizing criteria (like B-Pro's “Star System”) always makes these cursory lists feel like they're in a vacuum. Fun to look at for a moment...but that's about it because it offers no great insight or context.

To that end (and we're not done with the BA piece yet), Call to the Pen provides some context as they reveal what I assume to be the first Top 100 Prospect list of the season. I'll admit this straight off as I have no idea who Nathaniel Stoltz (the author) is and that my eyes were directed there a few weeks ago by Ed Carroll's “Deep Left Field”, so take that Top 100 listing however you want, but realize that it's coming from an author that looks to be based in California, with no great agenda to hype up Tribe prospects.

While there may not have been an agenda to hype up Tribe prospects, check out where different Indians' prospects fit in this Top 100 (and he's only posted #11 to #100), with a little quote from the write-up of each (linked in the name) accompanying the individual player:
#11 – Jason Knapp - “Few pitchers have more upside” and, yes...that's #11 in all of MLB

#29 – Drew Pomeranz - “He could evolve into one of baseball’s top lefties.”

#43 – Chun Chen - “Chen looks to be a true two-way stud behind the plate.”

#70 – Alex White - “It’s pretty tough to turn into a front-of-the-line starter in the majors when your Double-A whiff numbers don’t impress...he could be a poor man’s Dan Haren and a fine #2/#3 starter for a playoff team.”

#73 – Nick Weglarz - “Weglarz doesn’t have much defensive value either, but he’s essentially Jack Cust with fewer strikeouts, and that’s valuable.”

#77 – Felix Sterling - “Big and projectable, Sterling features advanced velocity for his age and already touches 94-95 mph at age 17. Both his offspeed pitches are advanced as well, and he could end up a truly dominating force.”

#90 – Matt Packer - “Indians fans sick of finesse lefties may be cautious, but Packer could be the sort of durable strikethrower who works as a great complement to a flamethrowing ace.”

Honorable Mention – Cord Phelps - “I feel confident in saying he could be a well-above-average second-base starter, but there’s not enough about him that stands out to quite get him into the top 100.”

You'll notice that Kipnis and Chisenhall don't appear on this list and, as I said, this particular list has not yet posted the Top 10 prospects, so I'll guess we'll have to wait and see if the Indians would really have three in the top 11, five in the top 50 and 9 in the top 100, with an honorable mention to boot if, in fact, Kipnis and The Chiz are among the Top 10.

Again, the source of this is purely a Top 100 list that I stumbled upon, and you can head down to one of those giant piles of salt that you see on the shores of Lake Erie when you're enjoying a Guinness on the patio of The Harp if you want to when digest that, but...well, take it as you will.

Regardless, let's get back to the BA piece as the only real compelling part of the annual BA prospect ranking to me is the indulgence of predicting what a team is going to look like 3 years into the future, with BA's best guess of the 2014 Tribe looking like this:
C - Carlos Santana
1B - Matt LaPorta
2B - Jason Kipnis
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
3B - Lonnie Chisenhall
LF - LeVon Washington
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Shin-Soo Choo
DH - Nick Weglarz
SP - Alex White
SP - Drew Pomeranz
SP - Carlos Carrasco
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - Jason Knapp
Closer - Chris Perez

At a cursory glance, you notice that Choo, Cabrera, and Sizemore are all listed on their 2014 lineup (and Mike Brantley isn't), despite the fact that the current contracts for all three will run out prior to the 2014 season. Additionally, you see that BA thinks that 2011 Draftee LaVon Washington will be moving AWFULLY fast to arrive in 2014. Of course, BA is notorious for overestimating the most fruits of the most recent draft, as evidenced by the inclusion of Beau Mills as the 2011 3B in the 2008 projection...and that's an interesting one to look at in hindsight. But that overestimation is neither here nor there as the real “fun” comes when we execute this little exercise for ourselves.

For the purposes of projecting the 2014 lineup with the status of current contracts in play, keep in mind here that Hafner's guaranteed years end after the 2012 season while Sizemore's club option also runs through the 2012 season, which is the last season that Rafael Perez is under club control. Players that will be FA after the 2013 season (as of right now) will be The BLC, Cabrera, and a couple of uninteresting relievers (Joe Smith and Jenny Lewis). So for this little exercise, I'm going to assume that all of those players have moved on, something that Baseball America doesn't generally do...as you'll notice CC at the top of the 2011 predicted rotation a few years back.

Cleveland Indians – v.2014
C – Chun Chen
1B – Carlos Santana
2B – Jason Kipnis
SS – Josh Rodriguez
3B – Lonnie Chisenhall
LF – Nick Weglarz
CF – Mike Brantley
RF – Abner Abreu
DH – Matt LaPorta

SP – Jason Knapp
SP – Drew Pomeranz
SP – Alex White
SP – Carlos Carrasco
SP – Fausto Carmona

RP – Zach Putnam
RP – Josh Judy
RP – Rob Bryson
RP – Hector Rondon
RP – Nick Hagadone
RP – Tony Sipp
RP – Justin Masterson
Closer – Chris Perez

Starting off with the pitching, I'd agree with the five starters projected by BA, just in a different order and with the caveat that There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, that rotation is pretty solid looking, from a projection standpoint. Past those five, Matt Packer would be a name that could factor into the rotation, though perhaps more as a depth starter whose left-handedness could balance out the rotation. Additionally, Joe Gardner, TJ House, and others could certainly factor in here...but a lot can happen in three years in terms of those arms as it's possible that a surprise emerges or one (or two) of those starters sees Dr. James Andrews.

In terms of the bullpen, relievers are a total crapshoot, particularly if you're trying to project a solid three years into the future (Ferd Cabrera anyone?)...so those 8 names could be completely different when 2014 rolls around.

Back to the lineup though, please note what two names stand out like sore thumbs there if we're using only players that are under club control through 2014?

Yeah, that would be Josh Rodriguez, a soon-to-be-26-year-old with 86 total games over AA at SS, and Abner Abreu, a just-turned-21-year-old outfielder who just put the finishing touches on an injury-marred season in which he posted a...wait for it, .651 OPS in Kinston. If anyone has any other obvious suggestions that I missed...I'm all ears. Certainly, 2014 would be an optimistic timetable for arrival guys like for LaVon Washington (although BA doesn't think so) and Tony Wolters (another 2011 draftee), but look at those two positions that I had such trouble filling (albeit three years from now) if I'm taking current contracts into account – SS and RF.

This is tough because, well...Choo and Cabrera are obviously not included on this list. If you add The BLC and Asdrubal to that list – yeah that looks like a team that could basically be the offense going into 2012 or thereabouts, with the ability to be around for a couple of years together as a group to mature and excel as they evolve as a unit.

Given the cost certainty of the rest of that lineup (even three years from now) and the organizational holes beneath them at their respective positions, maybe the Indians SHOULD be considering long-term deals with these two this off-season, as much as the Scott Boras Factor starts to come into play...but that payroll discussion becomes another topic for another (Lazy Sun)day.