The DiaTribe

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

The Axe Man Stayeth

A few months back, the “revelation” that the Indians had no player with a guaranteed contract past the 2013 season became the topic du jour. Whether the momentum of the “topic” was carried because of the lull of the off-season or for other reasons, the “revelation” was treated with general disinterest as the Indians are a young team without many players that needed to be working under guaranteed contracts or the “revelation” was sensationalized in the interest of generating page clicks as imaginary dots were connected on imaginary pages. Fast forward to not even being through the first full week of the 2012 season and the Indians have added a year of club control to Asdrubal Cabrera’s contract (now under control through 2014) and have inked Carlos Santana to a 5-year deal with a club option for what would have been his first year of FA in 2017. With news that the deal is for $21M, now is a good time to remember that past is (as always) prologue here as the Indians lock up their young backstop to a deal that will potentially keep him in an Indians’ uniform through 2017.

While the Indians remain a “young team without many players that needed to be working under guaranteed contracts”, the Santana deal is one that shouldn’t come as much surprise, particularly if you go back to the (recent) history of the Indians and extensions meted out, particularly to young catchers. Just to refresh your memory, going into the 2005 season, a just-turned-26-years-old Victor Martinez agreed to a contract in his pre-arbitration years for a little under $375K. In April of that year, the team tore up that $375K contract for 2005 and replaced it with a deal that guaranteed $15.5M to the player that would become El Capitan over 5 years with a club option for $7M in what would have been his first year of Free Agency (2010) based on service time accumulated to that point.

The breakdown of Victor’s deal looked like this, not including the $1M signing bonus he netted as part of the deal:
2005 - $500K
2006 - $800K
2007 - $3M
2008 - $4.25M
2009 - $5.7M
2010 - $7M club option ($250K buyout)
If those numbers look impossibly low, they are…but remember that the MLB pay scale is based on service time and comparable contracts, so the Indians made this deal with Victor to lock in his arbitration salaries and to potentially buy out his first year of FA (2010) with a club option (that looked big at the time, considering how little Martinez had played in MLB) and a paltry buyout of said club option because they were the ones assuming the risk in the deal, in case injury or attrition would have taken Victor off what looked to be a path to MLB stardom between 2005 and 2010.

Almost done with that history lesson, let’s bring this back to The Axe Man and why this is relevant…
Prior to the 2005 season, Victor had played in 202 games (801 PA) with an .807 OPS after a stellar minor-league career. Victor had turned 26 in December of 2004, so he was starting his “age 26” season. Remember, he signed his extension in April of 2005…

Prior to this 2012 season, Santana (who turned 26 this past weekend) had played in 201 games (850 PA) with an .821 OPS after a stellar minor league career and is now signing an extension in April of 2012…

So these guys have more in common than just their team, their jersey number, their heritage, and their position – Santana is basically following the “Victor Plan” in Cleveland. And that’s not such a bad thing as the Indians locked in all of Victor’s arbitration years (and got him at a bargain because of it by assuming the risk associated with inking a player with as little service time as Martinez had) and included a club option for his 1st year of FA. Pending the actual nuts and bolts (dollars) of The Axe Man’s contract, they’ve likely done the same with Santana and while it might be wished that the Indians could keep Santana as long as possible, let’s remember how old Santana is going to be in the years that this contract covers:
2012: 26
2013: 27
2014: 28
2015: 29
2016: 30
Prior to this deal, that was when Santana was able to become a FA and the club option will potentially buy out Santana’s 1st year of FA (at least) in 2017, when he’ll be 31 years old. In this “new” age where players aren’t maintaining production into their late-30s/early-40s, that doesn’t represent a bad thing, particularly given Santana’s position. In fact, it’s interesting to see Victor miss the 2012 season (his “age 33” season) in what is second year of the 4-year deal that the Tigers inked him to last off-season. While other teams are taking future “largesse” and signing players to what seem to be lifetime deals, flying in the face of the idea that past production does not guarantee future results, the Indians are using their experience from the Martinez deal to keep Santana on The Reservation for the same timeframe of each player’s career.

But this is not about the past – this is about the future…
And in terms of that and as for what can be expected from Santana during the life of the contract, 2011 certainly whetted the whistle as he was one of only 4 players to hit 25 HR with 35 2B and 90 BB, joining Miggy Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Prince Fielder on that list. Just so you don’t think that those numbers are just cherry-picked to place Santana in that grouping and that the feat of those three totals aren’t that impressive, consider that only 2 players in MLB hit those marks in 2010 (Joey Bats and Teixeira) and 1 (Nick Swisher) did it in 2009. Grady was the only one to do it in 2008 and – with that name mentioned – don’t take Santana’s 2011 feats as an obvious harbinger of success going forward.

Unfortunately, most Indians’ fans saw how much risk is associated with having their best offensive player as a catcher on what-could-have-been a fateful night in Fenway and everyone remembers how Victor’s injury-filled 2008 season played a role in what looked to be such a promising time for the Indians ending in disappointment and heartbreak. While I don’t know if we’re prepared to wince every time that Santana takes a foul tip off the thumb the way that we once did with Victor, it’s not assured that The Axe Man will stay behind the plate for the life of this deal. At this point, 1B is still a wasteland for the Indians (with no great alternative in sight in the Minors) and Hafner’s contract expires after this year, meaning that Santana could be used in the DH role if needed.

Santana’s 124 OPS+ placed him 44th in MLB among qualified players and the only players that were younger than The Axe Man on that list who appear above him were Alex Avila, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, and Andrew McCutchen. Since we know that age is important here – just as it’s important in terms of how long Santana is signed for – the idea that Santana could/should improve going forward is one that’s hard to ignore. In every season except his injury-filled 2008, Victor Martinez posted an OPS over .850 and had 30 or more 2B in each of the seasons (except 2008) from 2005 to the end of his contract in 2010. It’s hard not to imagine Santana enjoying the same steady productive beginning to his career, based on what’s already been seen.

The Indians have moved again and while all they really did was set the salary numbers that they’ll be paying Santana through his arbitration years while buying out one year of FA (potentially), it throws the idea that the Indians have been “scared off” from giving long-term deals to deserving players because of the contracts for Hafner, Westbrook, Sizemore, and Carmona out the window. While that was the accepted line of thinking just a few months ago (for some, at least), the Indians know this path that they’re taking and are willing to accept the risk associated with guaranteeing money to Santana, given the potential reward that is possible – a reward that could be similar to the one they enjoyed with Victor in his prime.

Back in 2005, Victor was a promising backstop with braids who looked to be a middle-of-the-order presence, though few saw him becoming the heart-and-soul of the Indians of the mid-to-late 2000s. While the goodbye with El Capitan was tough as cried in front of his locker, the “getting to know you” part of his Tribe career is what endeared him and continues to endear him. Now, the page has turned to a new #41 behind the plate as Indians’ fans will “get to know” Santana as a player, potentially through the 2017 season as the Indians’ “core” comes into clearer focus and as that “core” remains at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario a little bit longer than most thought just a few months ago.

Lake County Captains Preview

The Lake County Captains, the low-A affiliate of the Cleveland Indians, will be the most exciting team in the system to watch this year. Led by former catcher Dave Wallace, who managed the Mahoning Valley Scrappers last year, the Captains will have my number 1, 8, 10, 11, 12 and 14 prospects in the organization on the opening day roster, and the number 2 guy (RHP Dillon Howard) will likely be there before the all-star break. This team is going to have loads of talent and be a LOT of fun for fans in Northeast Ohio to watch in 2012. So let’s take a look at some of the players the Captains will start off the season with, where they’re going to be playing and what we can expect to see out of them as the season progresses. Anytime a player is listed with a number in parentheses, it’s the overall rank of the player in my offseason organizational top prospect ranking.

Catchers

Both of the backstops who will start out 2012 in Lake County spent a significant part of the 2011 season there as well. Both Alex Lavisky (#23) and Alex Monsalve (#50) appeared in at least 49 games for the Captains, and both will be back in 2012. Lavisky is the better prospect, as his power and defense combination is tantalizing, but Monsalve had the better season at the plate last year. Look for Lavisky to feature an improved approach at the plate and a shorter swing this year, as both his pitch recognition and long swing led to his struggles with professional pitching last season.

Outfield

The Captains outfield is expected to feature LeVon Washington (#8), Luigi Rodriguez (#10) and Bryson Myles (#38) as the starters. One word to describe this outfield; fast. All three of those guys have above-average to plus speed, with Washington and Rodriguez being two of the fastest players in the system. Myles is an above-average runner, but is also one of the best baserunners in the system, a guy who stole 53 bases in college and then 20 more as a professional last year. So there shouldn’t be a lot of balls falling in the gaps between these three.

Washington had a tough year at the plate last year, struggling both with injuries and the adjustment to professional baseball. He’s one of the most talented players in the system though, and is a real breakout candidate in 2012. Rodriguez is a burner, probably the fastest player in the organization right now, but is still learning to play the outfield. The converted 2B has true top of the order skills, as what he lacks in power he makes up for in hitting ability and speed. Myles is the old man of the group at age 22, but he’s a guy who made the New York-Penn League all-star team last year and is no slouch with the stick himself. Overall, it’s an exciting trio, one that should keep fans entertained throughout the season.

Infield

If you thought the Captains’ outfield was exciting, wait till you hear about the infield. Headlining both the team and the IF is shortstop Francisco Lindor (#1). Lindor is already an elite defender and an above-average hitter. None of his tools have a future grade of lower than average. The switch-hitter could be a force both defensively and offensively for the Indians for years to come. He’ll play the entire 2012 season as an 18-year old, but you’d never know it when watching him in action out on the diamond. Everything he does just looks so natural, so smooth that he plays at a level far above his age. The pitcher-friendly Midwest League is a tough environment for a kid straight out of high school, but the Indians think he can handle the aggressive assignment, and so do I.

Lindor’s doubleplay partner will be athletic infielder Robel Garcia (#12). Garcia is an intriguing young prospect who could be a power and defense guy down the road. He’s 19, was originally a shortstop, and put up a .915 OPS in the Arizona Summer League last offseason. He needs to work on his pitch recognition and approach, but a player at his age with his skill set offers a lot of potential down the road.

Manning the corners for the Captains will be a combination of Jerrud Sabourin at 1B with Leo Castillo and Jordan Smith (#43) at the hot corner. Castillo was one of the stars of spring training, as the 18 year old showed up with some strength on what was a fairly skinny frame, and is a player who is almost assured of being a top-30 guy next season. Smith, who will also play some OF, put up a .300/.403/.391 line for short season Mahoning Valley last year, and can really hit.

Rotation

The front end of the Captains rotation is loaded, with righty Felix Sterling (#11) and lefty Elvis Araujo (#14) acting as the headliners. Both are big, young, strong kids who have really high ceilings, but also have a lot to prove as their professional experience is extremely limited. Sterling got some exposure to the Midwest League last year as an 18-year old, and struggled a little but wasn’t bad. Araujo is 20, and has yet to throw a pitch above short-season ball due to injuries. The big southpaw has already had Tommy John surgery, but is healthy and was throwing his fastball between 91-94 this spring.

Rounding out the rotation will be Kyle Blair (#33), Joe Colon and Will Roberts. Blair began 2011 as a Captain, but struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness and ended up in the complex leagues before working his way back to the Lake County bullpen. He’s still seen as a starter long-term though, and will be given another shot at the rotation which he should make the most out of if he’s healthy this year. Colon was a 12^th round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2009 while Roberts was a 5^th round selection last year. Roberts had a solid season for Mahoning Valley after he signed last year, going 1-3 with a 3.27ERA, 29 K and 7 BB in 41 1/3 IP.

Bullpen

The Lake County bullpen will be a crowded one in 2012, as the Captains are electing to go with a 13-man pitching staff. One of the most talented pitchers in the pen will be big righty Cole Cook, a 5^th round pick in 2010. Cook started 19 games for the Captains last year, going 5-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 105 IP. He’ll be the long man out of the pen and a guy who “piggybacks” on other starters when they are scheduled to go less than half the game as is commonplace in the minors. Joining Cook will be LHP Kyle Petter and RHP’s Jordan Cooper, Shawn Armstrong, Mason Radeke, Cody Anderson, Xavier De Los Santos, and Franciso Valera. Anderson is the big arm in the group, but Petter is a guy to watch as well. The lefty only threw 7 2/3 innings for Mahoning Valley last year, but managed to record two saves while striking out 14, walking 5 and allowing just two hits.

Three Things to Watch

Francisco Lindor. He’s the top prospect in the organization, was the team’s 1^st round draft pick last year, and is a kid who really has fun and plays the game the right way. He’s a great role model for any little infielder you might have in the house.

Alex Lavisky. After a rough year at the plate last year, see if you can notice any improvement in pitch recognition. If nothing else, watch him behind the plate because his defense is solid.

Dillon Howard (once he gets there). The #2 prospect in the organization and a potential front of the rotation starter, Howard will be an important player for the system going forward.

Sunday, April 08, 2012

A Lazy Sunday Off the Bat

Opening Day has come and gone and now we settle in for the long (and glorious) haul of an MLB season. As much attention is paid to Opening Day, for whatever reason, I’ve never been all that into it – of course, I’m excited about the return of baseball to the North Coast on an everyday basis until September, but if you’ve been visiting this space for any amount of time, you know that I generally eschew the “pageantry” of Opening Day and opt to sit with my people, the Game #2 crowd. Apparently, I’m not alone in that thinking (and click this and the linked piece about Opening Day in Detroit) as the Game #2 crowd is not full of the St. Patrick’s Day Party People (who see Opening Day as a reason to day-drink on a weekday in April) and don’t cause you to sit behind an Indians’ “fan” who says that a 45-year-old Omar Vizquel is the best player on the field and wonders why the Indians didn’t sign Manny or Thome in the off-season. No, my Game #2 people bundle up in their Tribe gear, pull out their scorecards, slap on the remote radio headphones to listen to Hammy and enjoy baseball...and that’s exactly what I did with my 5-year-old (well, not the radio headphones) on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon.

That’s not to get on a high horse on this and say that I like baseball more than anyone who was at the game on Thursday, and I realize that I’m seemingly in the minority on Opening Day, but enjoying baseball and seeing games that matter (and Game #2 counts just as much as Opening Day…and perhaps more because Ubaldo pitched in it) is what really matters and what this time of the year is all about. Baseball has arrived on the North Coast and the hullabaloo is over about predictions and projections as we get to actually watch some games that count.
That’s a reason to celebrate…

The rhythm of games nearly every day is back and (as the first couple of games have shown) the season promises to be a roller-coaster, full of highs and lows, complete with exhilarating moments and points in time when we all wonder why we subject ourselves to being baseball fans. Complain all you want about one game or one inning (Chris Perez…harrumph, harrumph, harrumph. Hey, I didn’t a harrumph out of that guy!), but baseball’s back and we have a LONG way to go on this journey that is the 2012 season.

As much as Opening Day events and results get inexplicably put under the microscope (well, not inexplicably – it’s when the Cleveland media and “fans” pay the most attention to the Indians until they turn their attention back to the NFL Draft and who the Browns should take in the 3rd round), let’s all take a step back and breathe. Certainly there were things that did or did not happen in the first two games that none of us hope become trends – specifically the offense looking inconsistent and not winning two games that should have been won based on the starting pitching performances by Masterson (huzzah) and Ubaldo (HUZZAH) in the first two games. However, as much as “trends” and “worries” easily consume us this early in the season, let’s remember that nothing really has happened of note as they’ve played all of two games, which breaks down to 1.2% of the season and anyone asserting anything as fact after one or two games…well, they’re not doing it right.

If you want to talk about how Perez’s performance was concerning, particularly in light of the idea that Tribe trainer Lonnie Soloff implied that he wasn’t in shape in Spring Training and how he really didn’t get “his work in” during a shortened Spring Training for him or how the onus of scoring runs is going to fall heavily onto the shoulders of Santana, Choo, Cabrera, and Kipnis in the lineup as it’s presently constructed?
That’s fine…but let’s hold off on the absolute proclamations for a while here. Remember that the 2008 Opener claimed Victor via injury and that the White Sox (whose 2011 was a disaster) beat the Indians in the 1st two games of 2011 by scores of 15-10 and 8-3, right before the Indians won 30 of their next 42 games. That’s not to say that there aren’t red flags that are starting to rise over the corner of Carnegie and Ontario…it’s just that it isn’t worth analyzing any of those “red flags” after two games.

So instead of overanalyzing the first two tilts against the Blue Jays or combing over this “manage by the book” thing that got overblown because it was Opening Day when local writers who pay very little attention to the Indians (or to Cleveland sports at all) get a burr under their saddle, let’s go back to the biggest news of the past week as Asdrubal Cabrera’s extension with the Indians became official on the day before Opening Day, which will keep the current Tribe SS on The Reservation through the 2014 season…or at least under contract through the end of 2014. So, for the rabble-rousers who spent the off-season worrying that no Indian was guaranteed a contract past 2013, relax and realize that…the Indians don’t have anyone under long-term contract past 2014.
So, delay the worrying by a year…

Tongue out of cheek, Cabrera’s deal represents a nice surprise after a Spring Training during which every report seemed to intimate that the Indians and Asdrubal’s camp were miles away from an extension of any kind. Despite the fact that Cabrera’s deal only buys out one FA year, it still does buy out that FA year as the breakdown the Droobs’ salaries for the next couple of years look like this:
2012 - $4.55M (already agreed upon prior to going to arbitration)
2013 - $6.5M
2014 - $10M

Those numbers aren’t outrageous and the $10M payday in 2014 is unquestionably what compelled Cabrera to “lose” that scheduled 1st year of FA. Truthfully, I’ve spilled too much e-ink on the possible parameters and justifications for those parameters to get too much into those salary numbers but for comparison’s sake, this is what I had suggested it would take to get Asdrubal to “give up” a FA year back at the end of September, with a couple of options thrown on there, not listed:
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M

So the Indians netted another year out of Cabrera for a little less than what was thought a few months ago and didn’t include options, which is interesting because the Indians’ contracts of the past have almost always included options. Truthfully, I probably would have preferred an option year on there for 2015 (with a buyout attached for protection), though I’m not going to pretend to know what took place during negotiations or guess why option years weren’t included when every Tribe deal over 3 years has included one since John Hart steered the ship. Perhaps Cabrera wasn’t interested in any option years (and in the presser announcing the deal, he said he’d be interested in another deal when this expires…which I’ll believe when I see because I’ve heard that before) or maybe the Indians are really only interested in Asdrubal’s services until the supposed heir apparent, Francisco Lindor, is ready to emerge. Lest you forget, Kevin Goldstein of B-Pro (who is likely sending Lindor something for Sweetest Day this fall) projected Lindor’s arrival to MLB in 2015, or the season that Cabrera will no longer be an Indian.

As we all know, a lot can happen between Lake County and Cleveland (and I’m not talking about the stretch of I-90 connecting the two stadiums) and assuming that Lindor will seamlessly take over at SS four Opening Days from now is lunacy, but the Indians bought themselves some cost certainty with Asdrubal and bought out one of his FA years in the process. While that may come as a surprise to those who were SURE that no long-term contracts were going to be handed out by the current ownership group because…well, because the Dolans are looking to sell, what the Cabrera extension does is “extend” the current group of players’ time on the field together. Sure, that “extension” may only be for one extra year past where the Indians’ controlled Asdrubal prior to this contract, but while much attention has been paid to this current “window” (admittedly by me), it certainly represents a positive step in the Indians’ taking the financial risk associated with guaranteeing money to a sometimes-less-than-motivated Cabrera in the interest of upside and keeping him in Cleveland.

What is interesting to see in the Asdrubal extension is how it relates to the other contracts meted out this past week, and one in particular. Of course, I’m referring to Joey Votto inking a…um, healthy deal to stay in the Queen City and while some have pointed to his extension as a sign that MLB is healthy, in that not just the large-market teams can keep their homegrown stars) and that the trickle-down of TV money and club value is having an effect on EVERY team, let’s all remember that there was a similar chorus when Mauer signed his deal to stay in the Twin Cities and how those deals (and particularly Votto’s) causes some major worry – particularly for small-to-mid-market teams.

By that I mean that the big news in MLB in the last couple of weeks has been the Dodgers’ impending sale for a little over $2B, which caused some warm and fuzzies this Opening Day as Selig and talking heads everywhere touted labor peace and the state of the game, but there are undercurrents here that don’t bode well for teams like Cincinnati or Cleveland. Grantland’s Jonah Keri examined the Votto deal and the message that it sent across the league, surmising thusly:
Current and prospective owners see an industry that grew revenue through a tough recession and now stands poised to rake in far more money, with media deals rising, the economy improving, and the game in the midst of its longest period of uninterrupted labor peace since the advent of free agency.
--snip--
Moral hazard plays a big role here, too: If owners know they can always sell their teams for huge profits, and general managers know they probably won’t be around to see a 10-year deal (or even a five-year deal) all the way through, why not pay a premium to lock down a top player now?

The final takeaway from Keri is where the trouble starts though as he concludes, “So you can either fight fierce headwinds playing Moneyball with your roster every year … or give in and pay whatever it takes. The Giants, and especially the Reds, have chosen the latter.”

The bit about the Giants refers to Matt Cain’s extension, but this line of thinking is interesting to look at in the context of the last year of Travis Hafner’s deal (that was only for FOUR years as Votto’s is really for 12 years) and as Joe Mauer enters the 2nd year in which he’ll be paid $23M by the Twins, a salary that will continue until 2018 as I’m not so sure that this option to “fight fierce headwinds playing Moneyball with your roster every year” looks so awful compared to the alternative for small-to-mid-size-markets. Though I’m not sure there are those two extremes – either to play “Moneyball with your roster every year…or give in and pay whatever it takes”, it is interesting to examine in the context of Cabrera’s deal as the Indians kept things pretty close to the vest the whole time and gave Asdrubal a deal that will keep him in Cleveland for an extra year, but by no means keeps him here for the remainder of his career.

Of course, I understand the difference between Asdrubal and Joey Votto, but while much of this assumed future revenue in baseball is supposed to be driven by local TV contracts, let me remind you that Cincinnati is actually the smallest TV market in MLB and as much as the Reds would like to believe that their about-to-expire TV deal is about to become more lucrative, just as the Dodgers’ price tag was tied to the impending TV deal for them, let’s go to the Nielson list for 2011 TV markets and see how many households each market contains:
CIN – 896,090
LA – 5,569,780

Yes, Cincinnati has a market size that is 16% that of LA and, even if you figure that there are two teams in LA, that doesn’t change the number of subscribers in LA per month or half it. Remember, the Dodgers were just bought for over $2 Billion, but early indications are that their TV deal could be double that (yes, $4 Billion is the number being thrown around), based on the number of TV’s in the Dodgerland market and the reason for that is all based upon the that number of TV’s and the “per subscriber per month” fee that is tied to each of those TV’s.

For a clearer illustration of that, check out these numbers:
ESPN (including ESPN HD) gets the highest fee at present for its national network, $5.06 per subscriber per month.

Among regional sports networks, the highest fee goes to Comcast Sports/Washington (D.C.), which gets $4.02 per sub. The New England Sports Network, which carries the Boston Red Sox and others, commands $3.56 per sub, according to analysis by SNL Kagan.

It is estimated that a Dodger network would get a similar $3.50 per sub. Time Warner has about 2 million subscribers in the greater Los Angeles market. That would be about $7 million a month in sub fees, or $84 million per year (not counting advertising and sponsorship revenue).

Never mind the monstrosity that ESPN has become with those numbers as it is worth noting that the “2 million subscribers in the greater LA market” refers only to Time Warner customers and does not take into account satellite subscribers or other providers that add up to that 5.5 million number from above. Though I’m not going to pretend to know what the sub fees are for the Reds (or for the Tribe, for that matter), we’re in a Brave New World in MLB. Back when Pujols was signed, that was obvious and SI’s Tom Verducci has the cause and effect broken down:
“The separation is going to grow,” said one GM, referring to the haves and have nots. “There is only so much room for growth in small and middle markets. St. Louis is a great baseball town with great fans, but they can’t generate this kind of [TV] money because the market isn’t big enough. Markets like that have a ceiling. Places like L.A. have incredible room for growth.”

What does that mean for a team like the Indians or another team in a similar situation?
Well, after watching the deals for Hafner, Sizemore, and Carmona/Hernandez weigh down the team (with Hafner’s deal being FOUR years long – signed when he was 30 – and with the deals for Sizemore and Carmona/Hernandez being seen as immensely club-friendly when they were signed), you start to worry. That is, if you really think that the Reds can absorb the 28-year-old Votto experiencing a major downturn like the Angels could with Pujols, they’re not noticing the difference between the TV money that the two markets will afford them. Maybe it could be said that the Reds are taking a “risk” with a potential “reward”, but it’s hard to see how that helps them in the short-term (perhaps hindering their ability to add pieces) or in the long-term (where “sunk cost” becomes a part of the nomenclature) and they probably won’t be alone in the coming years.

Perhaps this is all heady and (slightly) depressing stuff at a time when most of us want to focus on baseball and are looking forward to getting back to the minutiae that following a team on an everyday basis provides. But the landscape of MLB is changing dramatically and quickly before our very eyes and simply sticking one’s head in the sand or burying one’s head in the box score becomes counter-productive when trying to figure out what direction the Indians are going and why.

The Cabrera extension represents an obvious example of the Indians looking to act prudently in this “newest” age of financial imprudence. Some will paint that as apologizing for the way that the Indians are run/have been run in the last decade, but what 2012 seems to represent is the beginning of a new group of players that is supposed to mature and gel together as a team. How long the current group stays together – either due to contract status, attrition, or injury – remains to be seen and the road doesn’t always look to be smooth.

But, as we begin this 2012 season, the thrill and the agony of the ride is what always brings us back…

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

The Sounds of Summer

Opening Day is nearly upon us and since I realize that you’ve never come to this space to find a simple breakdown of the roster (and I’m certainly not going to start with this particular with this roster, which could change so quickly) before Opening Day, you may come here for something that’s become a bit of a tradition in these parts to lighten the mood before Game #1 – the annual suggestion of music to accompany each Indians’ player to the plate or to the mound. After an off-season of conjecture, a Spring Training of dissection, and before a season of heavy lifting, this little exercise in frivolity always serves to break up the tension and perhaps provide a little bit of “firing up” to those in need.

If you’d like, you can check out the history of this series in a series of links from suggestions from a few years ago (and even I’m surprised to see that I’ve been doing this since 2006) as well as checking out last year’s suggestions. Also, Castrovince provided last year’s actual songs, in case you’re interested, and his Bruce-centric suggestions for 2012 should be hitting in 3…2…1. . In the interest of brevity (for once in this space), I kept it to the lineup, the rotation, and a couple of members of the bullpen. Unfortunately, the untimely death of 107.3 has hindered my ability to really look “with it” in terms of current music, since it was the only way that a married father of three could even pretend to be up on current music and songs. Since the demise of 107.3, my listening in the car has veered towards podcasts and jazz piano, so since I’m not sure how many different Theolonius Monk songs are going to be appropriate to fire up the masses, I relied on some oldies (but goodies) and some of my favorite current songs to accompany YOUR Cleveland Indians to the plate or the mound.

With all of that said, let’s strike up the band and light this candle…
Carlos Santana – “Everlasting Light”, The Black Keys
Starting off, I’ll eschew (again) the obviousness of a Carlos Santana (guitarist) song for Carlos Santana (catcher) while acknowledging that a player that is known (in these parts) as The Axe Man needs a guitar riff to accompany him to the plate. Who better to provide that than Northeast Ohio’s own The Black Keys? Certainly, this isn’t the last time they’ll appear on this list (and not just because I own this shirt that the Keys’ drummer Patrick Carney has been known to wear), but listen to that opening drum beat and that riff and imagine Santana’s little strut up to the plate (and he does strut) to set the tone for the player that should be the Indians’ best offensive player this year. Throw the idea of the song title, “Everlasting Light” in the context of Santana’s bat perhaps being a beacon in an ocean of shadows in the lineup and The Axe Man has his walking music.

Casey Kotchman – “Betterman”, Pearl Jam
While Johnny Nash’s “I Can See Clearly Now” merited some consideration, given the credit that Kotchman’s improved vision has had in explaining his 2011 numbers at the plate, the choice for Kotchman is the song that accompanies the player like Kotchman that seems to occupy a spot on the Tribe roster every year. For whatever reason, this song usually ends up with 1B (Broussard was given this song in 2006), but once again, short of any real compelling option at 1B, the Indians will go with Kotchman (and his glove) because…well, because they couldn’t (once again) find a “Betterman” to hold down 1B.

Jason Kipnis – “Give it All”, Rise Against
Yes, Adele is the easy pick here given Kipnis’ vocal…um, stylings this Spring, but this outfit from Kipnis’ home town of Chicago provide the soundtrack that mirrors Kipnis’ hustle and effort on the field. Perhaps 2012 is the year that Indians’ fans become accustomed to (and enamored by) Kipnis’ “ability” to go from 1st to 3rd on a single, but a frenetic tune would certainly seem appropriate. It’s been written quite a bit this off-season (here and elsewhere) that the maturation and development of Kipnis this year is going to go a long way towards the Indians’ offensive effectiveness and that it’s not hard to envision his style of play becoming the embodiment of what this team can be and much of that is focused on exactly what Rise Against extols – to “Give it All”.

Asdrubal Cabrera – “Just Got Paid”, Johnny Kemp
Since there is an (unwritten) rule that a song from the old “NBA Superstars” video has to be used in this compilation…because “NBA Superstars” was a “fusion of music and sports like never before”, Droobs gets the song that accompanied the video montage of Kenny “Sky” Walker winning the 1989 Dunk Contest (with a cameo of Ron Harper sporting the ol’ Blue and Orange as a participant) that is apropos in light of the news of Cabrera’s extension. Since the details haven’t been completely revealed yet, I’m waiting to see if there are any options on top of the 2-year contract that runs through 2014. Earlier in the off-season, a possible extension was the subject of a lengthy post and linked to the original idea from September that the Indians could extend Asdrubal and pay Cabrera a guaranteed salary of $24M through 2014, with some club options and guaranteed dollars to refuse those club options. If you add Asdrubal’s 2012 salary (via arbitration) to dollars in the 2-year extension that’s being bandied about, it looks like Cabrera will earn about $21M for the next 3 years ($4.55 in 2012 and the $16.5M extension)…now, how he plays having “just got paid” is another topic altogether.

Jack Hannahan – “Roll Away Your Stone”, Mumford & Sons
If he can come up to Gaelic Storm’s “Kiss Me I’m Irish” last year, we’ll stay on that island with Mumford and Sons’ romp. Though I could pull the old snarky Wilson Phillips “Hold On” (the old “Ryan Garko Memorial Award”) as Hannahan attempts to stay the everyday 3B as long as possible, I’m going positive here and if you’re wondering why this song applies, check these lyrics out after the ol’ STOMP on the kickdrum mid-song, leading to Marcus Mumford shouting out thusly:
Stars hide your fires,
These are my desires
And I will give them up to you this time around
And so, I’ll be found
with my stakes stuck in this ground
Marking the territory of this newly impassioned soul
To me, the “stakes stuck in this ground / Marking the territory” line is great in light of Hannahan’s history in MLB and this representing his chance to lay his claim on the hot corner in Cleveland. While I may not be fully on board with Supermanahan as the everyday 3B, the chorus is pretty apropos for a surprise everyday player at the age of 32, looking to mark his “territory”.

Shelley Duncan – “I’m Still Standing”, Elton John
Though I thought I’d be including “The Comeback Kid” from Brett Deneen for one Grady Sizemore in this slot, Duncan finds himself in the Opening Day starting lineup…and not for a lack of trying to find other options by the Indians. Despite giving MANY others ample opportunity to take Duncan’s spot and even entertaining the idea that Bobby Abreu represented an upgrade (and he may have, if the Angels had picked up the tab), Duncan finds himself as the only player still standing in a LF “scrum” that could only be described as “messy”. While I’m sure that a ditty by Elton John (and the outfits he wears in the video make this worthwhile) is not what Duncan would consider to be apropos for his 1st Opening Day start in MLB (at the age of 32), perhaps his sense of humor allows him to recognize the situation for what it is and no song more accurately depicts Duncan’s current standing in the lineup…tenuous as it still may be.

Mike Brantley – “How Soon is Now”, The Smiths
While it is true that may not be good karma to give the song that I suggested for one Matt MaTola last year for the other principal player received in return for our former aCCe, Brantley is now 25 years old and if he’s ever going to project as anything much more than a “poor man’s Coco Crisp” (in that most people see him as a high-OBP, high SB guy…when he just hasn’t been to this point), this is the season that he’s going to have to assert himself. Oh, and he’s going to have to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season as the “arrival” of the Mike Brantley that many anticipated having already happened would be a welcome surprise in 2012, or else Brantley is going to find himself in a diminished role going forward.

Shin-Soo Choo – “Don’t Forget Me”, Red Hot Chili Peppers
As steady as The BLC was from mid-2008 to the end of 2011, most are discounting him returning to form for the 2012 season – a development that would go a long way to meriting some confidence in the Tribe’s offense this season. While RHCP slowly build up to the middle of this song (and this video is from their show at The Q, the guitar solo in the middle is worthy of some walking music for a player that’s looking for the folks in Cleveland – and around MLB – to remember who he was before his nightmarish 2011 season.

Travis Hafner – “Best of You”, Foo Fighters
In what will almost unquestionably be Travis Hafner’s final season in an Indians’ uniform, this introspective anthem reminds us that we’ve seen Hafner at his best, his worst, and sometimes not at all. As Hafner’s extension ends after this season, it’s hard to remember that Hafner’s extension was for FOUR years and in light of these 10-year deals being meted out to players in their late-20’s/early-30’s (at MUCH higher annual salaries), it is amazing how Hafner’s deal was just for four years. Regardless and through it all, Hafner has soldiered through major injury in attempts to contribute to the best of his ability, with the results evoking both feelings of anger (that this stuff only happens in Cleveland) and sadness. As he takes his curtain call all season, let’s hope that we get the “best” of him more often than not.

Justin Masterson – “Steady, As She Goes”, The Raconteurs
As strange as it is to realize, given the uncertainty surrounding Masterson’s best “role” going into 2011, he emerged from the 2012 as the rock at the top of the rotation, relying on a “steady” diet of two fastballs. While hitters know that one of those two pitches is coming (and please let’s not have the “Masterson threw only TWO non-fastballs in a game” stories this year since he throws two different fastballs), Masterson remained effective at the top of the rotation. For the Indians to succeed in 2012, Justin Credible will have to stay just as “steady” at the top of the rotation, particularly given the “unsettled” state of the spots that follow him.

Ubaldo Jimenez – “Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”, U2
If Ubaldo seemed like a man adrift last season, the events of this past weekend put into clearer focus a player that not only is searching for the pitcher that he once was, but is allowing petty elements of his past to affect him in the present tense. While this whole Ubaldo v. Rox “issue” seems childish at best (“he hit me”…“he called me a name”) in which nobody really looks good, Ubaldo really looks the worst, a point that AC nailed pretty succinctly. Regardless, approaching the 2012 season, Ubaldo finds himself not only looking for who he once was – the pitcher that strode to the mound in that magical 2010 season – but also wondering who he now is. With so much riding on Ubaldo’s right arm for the Tribe’s 2012 campaign, let’s all hope that the finds what he’s looking for in short order.

Derek Lowe – “Turn the Page”, Bob Seger
The veteran hurler gets a song from his fellow native son of Dearborn, Michigan as Seger sings, “Here I am / On the road again / There I am / Up on the stage / There I go / Playing the star again / There I go / Turn the page”. At this point in his career, Lowe has seen most, if not all, of what an MLB player is going to see and experience and if this feels like Lowe’s last chance to be out “one the road again” and “up on the stage”, realize that it probably is. Whether Lowe has the staying power of Seger and his Silver Bullet Band (particularly in a town like Cleveland that can’t “Turn the Page” in terms of music, where 98.5 WNCX still spins Seger on a more-than-regular basis) remains to be seen, but at least the Michael Stanley Band fans will enjoy the dulcet tones of Seger as Lowe warms up while telling everyone around them that MSB was/is just as good as Bob Seger, who (they’ll tell you) was/is Dearborn’s Michael Stanley.

Josh Tomlin – “The Underdog”, Spoon
For years, Josh Tomlin toiled in obscurity in the Minor Leagues, overshadowed by players that threw harder or looked more imposing and had a more obvious path to MLB. For ½ of a season in 2011, Josh Tomlin emerged from those shadows to be a cog in the rotation for a 1st place team and while his 2nd half caused some of the questions that have always existed about him to bubble to the surface, it would seem that Tomlin would almost prefer it that way – with him filling the role of the underdog, overlooked and underappreciated.

Fauxberto Hernandez – “Man in the Mirror”, Michael Jackson
Since Castrovince placed early dibs on Bruce’s “Brilliant Disguise”, I’ll go with another introspective song about identities as #55 probably had more than a few moments in the past few years looking at the “Man in the Mirror” and now that he’s been caught, it certainly is time for him to “make a change”. Whether that “change” involves becoming a better pitcher or harkening back to those halcyon 2007 days remains to be seen…as does when that answer is even going to come on the North Coast.

Vinnie Pestano – “Runnin’ With the Devil”, Van Halen
Everything about this song screams bullpen intro song…
From the build-up of what sounds like car horns to the boom-boom-boom-boom opening bass line that almost sounds like a knocking on a (bullpen) door to drums and guitar kicking in, it’s hard not to imagine the bullpen door bursting open as David Lee Roth issues his primal scream while Vinnie Pestano begins his sprint to the mound. If they could somehow edit out the goofy lyrics and just go with the music and the chorus, this is a song that could become Pestano’s own as he (perhaps) grows into a future closer.

Chris Perez – “Howlin’ For You”, The Black Keys
Since we started with the Black Keys, we’re ending there as well as the pride of Firestone High School belt out this anthem that can accompany the Tribe closer from the bullpen. Without getting too deep into the idea that the hirsute Perez looks a bit like a werewolf, I’m going with this one because if the bass line from “Seven Nation Army” can take over college football stadiums from time to time, imagine a packed Jacobs Field singing along with Dan Auerbach in the “da-da-da-DA-da / da-da-da-DA-da” as Perez warms up. It may not be “Wild Thing” from the movies, but that sing-along chorus and the fact that the second verse is “Throw the ball / To the stick / Swing and miss and a / Catcher’s mitt / Strike two” gets this into the rotation.

So there you have it, bookended by The Black Keys, some music to provide the score for what is (hopefully) a summer to remember on the North Coast. And though I know it’s another tradition to lay out the season predictions in a massive missive and in excruciating detail (here’s last year’s effort), realize that there are just too many variables to even take an educated guess at what is about to happen, with the season at our doorstep.

If pressed to venture a guess, I think that the offense is going to struggle, the bullpen is going to be leaned on too heavily early on because of uncertainty in the rotation (and particularly in the back-end) which could cause the bullpen to falter down the stretch, and that by the time the reinforcements (Chiz, Hagadone, CC Lee, Barnes, maybe Austin Adams, etc.), the Indians are going to be hoping that they’re not about to be lapped by the Tigers in the AL Central.

A season around .500 (and maybe a little above it) looks about right with the Indians making a 2nd half push, prodded on by their young talent starting to settle in, but with the Tribe ending the season attempting to hold off another team whose young talent looks to be settling in (the Royals) for 2nd place in the AL Central. In the end, I think that they’ll hold off the Royals and retain 2nd place in the division, finishing out of the money for the Wild Card berths (both of them), but playing meaningful baseball games (because of those 2 Wild Card berths) through Labor Day.

The curtain is rising on the 2012 season…it’s time to sit back and enjoy the show.

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Lazy Sunday Coming Into Focus

On the last Sunday before the regular season begins, things are starting to come into focus on the North Coast. The rotation, having dodged any further injury bullets, is set. The 4^th OF/bench jobs have been decided. The last bullpen spot has been assigned. Minor league teams are set and ready to break camp. The sun is starting to shine…sort of. All that’s left to do is get the big club back to the shores of Lake Erie and kick off the season.

Most of the “news” related to the club in recent days turned out to be not news at all, as a proposed trade that would have brought Bobby Abreu eastward to man LF for the Indians fell through. Reports differ as to just how close the proposed deal was to actually happening, with some of the national writers going as far as to say that it was near completion but Bastain and some of the local guys saying it wasn’t that close after all. Abreu is under contract for $9 million in 2012, so the Angels would have had to eat a significant chunk of change in order for the Indians to be able to take on that contract. The exact terms of the deal were never released, but it may or may not have involved Trevor Crowe. I’ve long thought the Angels would be an ideal trade partner for the Indians, as they have too many OF and corner INF and are in need of an extra starter, and the Indians need an OF/corner INF and have extra starters. I have a feeling that there was an unnamed pitcher in the deal from the Indians side, but of course have nothing to confirm that. Regardless, whether it was due to the player package or monetary compensation, the deal died on the vine and Abreu remains on the West Coast. BaseballProspectus’ Sam Miller actually used the Abreu situation to make an interestingcase about how the myth of the “veteran presence” in baseball is exactly that,and it’s worth a read when you’re ready to complain about your own job.

There was a great deal of discussion from Indians fans as to whether or not Abreu would even constitute an upgrade in LF. He’s getting a little long in the tooth, and is a below-average defender in the OF. However, he’d have been augmenting/supplanting an already below-average defender in Shelley Duncan, one that doesn’t have near the offensive track record that Abreu has displayed in his 16-year major league career. I’m not going to over-analyze a player that’s not going to be playing for the Indians this year, but suffice to say that while Abreu’s offense is trending downward I still think he’d be an overall upgrade for 2012. The fact that the Angels are looking to dump salary at all, especially after signing a TV deal that pays them $150 million per season, is borderline laughable, and really shows you why a team with the resources of the Indians balks at signing long term deals. The Angels got themselves into salary “trouble” by trading a guy that became one of the best offensive catchers in the league (Mike Napoli) for a salary albatross (Vernon Wells), then were still able to go out and sign the best player of our generation and one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, and are now trying to get rid of Abreu’s contract. It’s borderline crazy when you think about it, and if you’re one of those fans that wonders why the Dolans are “cheap” and don’t make impactful free agent signings…well, you just weren’t paying attention to the 2011-2012 offseason.

If the Indians do end up making a deal with the Angels, here’s an under the radar name to keep in mind; C.J. Cron. Cron is a first baseman who was selected #17 overall by the Angels out of the University of Utah in the 2011 draft, and he’s considered to be a guy who won’t need a lot of time in the minor leagues. He’s limited defensively to 1B and 1B only, but scouts rave about his bat. He played in 34 games in short season ball after signing last year, and put up an even 1.000 OPS. In case you didn’t notice, first base is pretty well blocked in LA for the conceivable future, as is DH between Pujols, Morales and Trumbo. The Indians don’t have much in AA or AAA at first base, and the 22-year old Cron would look awfully good in the organization. This is all pure speculation on my part, but Cron seems expendable for the Angels right now, and the Indians certainly have a need that he could fulfill. Just something to keep an eye on going forward…

On to players who are actually going to be wearing the Indians uniform in 2012, as news has come out that Jenmar Gomez was awarded the 5^th starter spot out of Goodyear. Gomez had a solid spring, going 1-1 with a 1.37 ERA while racking up 14 K and walking 8 in 19 2/3 IP. His main rivals for the spot were David Huff and Kevin Slowey, neither of which were particularly effective this spring. Slowey was 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA with 5 K and 4 BB in 12 IP while Huff went 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA, 8 K and 2 BB in 14 IP. Slowey was also roughed up in a couple of starts in minor league camp, and Huff strained his hamstring so really it wasn’t much of a decision to give Gomez first shot at the role. Gomez did put a scare into the organization when he suffered what they are calling a “mild hip strain,” but with the club not needing a 5^th starter until April 11, all indications are that Gomez will be able to make that start, barring any setbacks of course.

As far as the bullpen goes, veteran Dan Wheeler was told that he made the final 25-man roster, which leaves just one spot up for grabs that should be announced later today. Wheeler celebrated the good news by going out and allowing 5 runs (3 home runs) in one inning of work. Some people just can’t handle success. As far as the last spot goes, it’s coming down to either veteran Jeremy Accardo or Jairo Asencio, who was recently acquired from the Braves in exchange for cash in move that flew under the radar a bit. Asencio is a 27-year old righty who put up impressive AAA numbers last year (26 saves, 1.81 ERA 70 K and 22 BB in 54 2/3 IP) and not-so impressive MLB numbers last year (6.97 ERA, 8 K and 5 BB in 10 1/3 IP). Outside the numbers, I really can’t claim to know anything about Asencio as I’ve never seen him pitch. But he was having a good spring, with 12 K in 11 IP for the Braves at the major league level, and he’s already on the 40-man roster so there’s a chance that he could claim that final bullpen spot. Regardless, the Indians plan to announce the final roster today, so we’ll all find out one way or the other soon enough.

Derek Lowe threw a scare into Indians fans when he left his most recent Cactus League start with back spasms. Penciled into the #4 starter role, losing Lowe would have meant that both Jenmar Gomez and Kevin Slowey would have made the opening day roster, as David Huff injured his hamstring at almost the same time as Lowe was leaving the game with his back issues. Lowe and the club insist that he’s fine and will be able to make his Indians debut on schedule, so the club really dodged a bullet there. Lowe isn’t a front of the rotation, dominant starter, but he’s a valuable veteran innings eater and it would have really hurt to lose him this early in the season. Let’s hope he really is healthy and effective come the cold April games in Cleveland.

Moving from the big club down to the farm (come on, you knew it was coming eventually), Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks got another look at Francisco Lindor this spring, andcame away even more impressed than before. Here’s a snippet of what Parks had to say about Lindor:

There will come a time, perhaps in the next few seasons, when teams will look back on the 2011 draft and say that Francisco Lindor should have gone number one overall. He has that potential. With Lindor, you aren’t looking at a player that at the present is miles away from his future; rather, when you watch Lindor on a field, you see a player that is more advanced than his contemporaries. He lacks crazy speed, but he can get to anything on the diamond and his glove casts a wide net at the position. His arm is quite strong and accurate, capable of making throws from deep in the left-side hole and over the bag at second. His bat is very promising, although his offensive tools lack elite individual grades; his hit tool could be a high-six, and the power could end up as average (5). The offensive combo should allow the 18-year-old to hit for a high average, with an approach that will encourage a high OBP, and enough pop in the bat for 10-15 homers a year at maturity, with a gap-to-gap swing that will produce countless doubles. Combine the offensive skill-set with the plus defense from a premium position and you have one of the better prospects in the game.

Read that again…I’ll wait. Pay special attention to the part where Parks says that Lindor may be looked at as the best talent in the 2011 draft. Then recall that talent pundits across the board referred to the 2011 draft as one of the most loaded in recent memory. Are you excited about Francisco Lindor yet? I’ll be putting out a more in-depth article on what I saw out of Lindor this spring, but it’s safe to say that my general point of view on the kid lines up with what Parks is saying above. He just looks so natural out there, you forget that he will play the entire 2012 season as an 18-year old, and plenty of players drafted out of high school in the upcoming Rule 4 draft will be older than him. Lindor really has a chance to be special, and if you can get out to Lake County and see this kid play, do it. I promise he will be worth the price of admission.

The Indians have of course been releasing a good number of minor leaguers throughout camp. Some of these guys are going to catch on somewhere else, some are going back to school, and some are going to have to rely on their actual college degrees to make money from here on out. Indians minor league pitcher Cole Cook has an excellent and entertaining blog that he started this past offseason, and he put up a post on what it means for the team when they see their friends and formerteammates on the way out the door. It’s a sobering experience, one that guys never really get used to despite it happening every year. Give it a read, and check back in with Cook throughout the year; he’s an entertaining follow on twitter and the blog is a neat window into the life of a professional ballplayer.

On a little bit lighter note, I’m going to put up some pictures that I took in Goodyear this month as a photo-essay of sorts. I can’t stress enough how enjoyable of an experience it is to go down to spring training, and there’s really no way that I can put it effectively into words. So hopefully these pictures will help do the trick. With opening day less than a week away, I hope you’re as excited about baseball season finally getting underway as I am. Enjoy!