Lazy Sunday Looking at the Draft

It’s June 24, the sun is shining, and the Indians are in first place. Both Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez have been pitching well, Pestano and Perez have been nailing down the 8^th and 9^th innings, and the offense has, for the most part at least, been doing enough to win. They certainly haven’t run away and hid with the division lead, but they’ve avoided the “June swoon” that marked the beginning of the end of the playoff hopes for the 2011 squad. They’re an even 10-10 this month with 9 games left, enough to maintain a slim ½ game lead over the White Sox and 3.5 game lead over the Tigers. So while the referees dominate the headlines during the NBA playoffs, fans obsess over the Brandon Weeden experience in Browns OTA’s and the raging debate over the #4 pick in the NBA draft continues, maybe just sit back and appreciate what the Indians are doing this summer here on this Lazy Sunday.

The 2012 MLB draft is in the books, and we finally got a good look at how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement effected the draft process, and how the Indians decided to attack it. The first round of the draft offered more surprises than ever, as some teams took the best player available, some took a player that was more signable than talented, and some (like the Indians) seemed to split the difference. As of today, the Indians have signed eight of their top ten picks, and 17 of 40 overall. Out of the commissioner’s decreed bonus pool of $4,582,900, they’ve doled out $3,417,500. That leaves $1,165,400 to sign their remaining two picks in the top 10, plus any bonus over $100,000 for picks outside of the top 10. If the Indians go over that cap by less than 5%, they pay a 75% tax on the overage. If they go over the cap by more than 5%, they lose their first round pick next year. No one the Indians selected is worth losing next year’s first round pick, so it would be a shock if the team spent enough to suffer that penalty. So with that being said, let’s take a look at the Indians top 10 picks in the draft, how they’ve spent their bonus pool so far and what might still be to come before the July 13 signing deadline.

The Indians first round pick was Texas A&M outfield Tyler Naquin. This pick surprised many, including me as you can see when looking back at my draft preview article. I looked at a dozen players that I thought would be options for the Indians with the 15^th pick in the draft, and wrote not a word about Naquin. He was selected a little earlier than most projections, but wasn’t a horrible reach. He signed quickly for $1.75 million, which is $500k under the $2.25 million slot for the pick. With the draft pool now being a zero-sum affair, it’s unfair to look at any pick in the top 10 in a vacuum, and you have to take a more holistic look at the top 10 picks and their bonuses to see how a team did in the draft. Naquin is a talented hitter with an elite arm and his bat will play well in CF if he can handle the position defensively, something the Indians scouts obviously think he can do. Naquin is already playing CF for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers, the Indians affiliate in the short-season New York-Penn League. In his 2 games with the Scrappers, he’s 3-8 with a double and a stolen base. He’s a good player that the Indians were able to bring in under slot and save money for overslot signings later in the draft, a good strategy for bringing in the most talent possible in one draft with the new rules that are in place.

The 2^nd round pick Mitch Brown, a RHP out of a Minnesota high school, signed for $800,000. That bonus was over the $639,700 slot for the pick, something the Indians needed to do to keep the prepster from forgoing his professional career for college. Brown was selected with the 79^th overall pick, and he was a player who was rated as the 45^th best in the draft by ESPN’s Keith Law and 44^th by Baseball America. His fastball sits between 90-95 MPH, and he throws a cutter and curveball that could both be plus pitches as he matures. He’s got an athletic frame at 6’2”, 210lbs, and has a clean, repeatable delivery and should have no problem sticking in the starting rotation.

The Indians stuck with prep pitching in the 3^rd round, selecting Kieran Lovegrove out of Mission Viejo HS in California. Lovegrove signed for an even $400,000, which is a little under the $432,700 slot recommendation. I actually thought it would take an overslot bonus to bring Lovegrove into the fold, so that was a pleasant surprise. He’s a very projectable 6’4”, 180lb righthander who already has above-average stuff. His fastball sits in the 89-93 MPH range and touches 95. That velo should improve as he fills out and adds strength to his frame. His best secondary pitch is a slider with sharp, two-plane break that he uses to dominate righthanded hitters. There are some kinks to work out in his delivery, as his stride is considered to be a bit short and he doesn’t use his lower half as well as he should, and if the Indians developmental staff can get those flaws ironed out, his stuff should pick up even more. Lovegrove is a mature kid for his age, and co-founded a charity for low-income youths who want to play baseball or softball, theGoing to Bat Foundation. He was born in South Africa and came to the US when he was just 5, and actually played cricket before baseball. Like Brown, he’ll likely not debut outside of the complex leagues until next year, but is already out in Arizona working with the Indians coaching staff. Lovegrove was the 110^th overall pick, and was Keith Law’s #46 player overall and Baseball America’s #131.

Sticking with high schoolers in the 4^th round, the Indians took OF D’Vone McClure out of Jacksonville HS in Arkansas. McClure is one of the two top-10 selections who has yet to sign, and is likely holding out for an overslot bonus. Slot for the pick is $314,700, and it may well take more than that to sign him away from a full ride to play baseball for the Razorbacks. He’s considered the top prep player in the state, and is a toolsy guy that has a pretty high upside but is a ways away from reaching it. He projects to have four above-average to plus tools (power/throwing/fielding/running) down the road, and some scouts compare him favorable to Austin Jackson. He’s a real boom or bust pick simply because he’s so raw, but the potential upside is significant as a two-way impact player in CF. He was ranked as the #93 player in the draft by Keith Law and #91 by Baseball America, and the Indians snagged him with the 143^rd overall pick. Now all that’s left is to see if they can sign him.

After the first four picks, I really expected the Indians to take a signable senior with their 5^th round selection to save some money and ensure that they could have enough scratch to sign their first four picks. They stuck with upside though, and selected Western Nevada JC pitcher Dylan Baker. Baker is a 6’3”, 215lb righthander who played his high school ball in the baseball hotbed of Juneau, Alaska. He’s seen as a future bullpen guy at this stage of his development because he only has two effective pitches, but both of those pitches are plus. His fastball sits between 90-95 MPH and touches 97. His secondary pitch is a curveball that is a 12-6 hammer, movement that is made even more dramatic coming from his high over the top arm slot. He throws an occasional changeup, but it’s a pitch that will have to come a long ways to be effective as a pro. If he learn to spin a slider or cutter to give him a weapon to attack hitters laterally across the strike zone, he could be an effective starting pitcher, possibly a #2 if the third pitch could be even average. As it is though, he projects best as a backend bullpen arm who could move quickly through the system. He signed for an even $200,000, slightly under the $235,600 slot for the 173^rd pick. Keith Law pegged him as the #75 prospect in the draft, and Baseball America put him at #82 overall.

The 6^th round brought the first real “signability” pick of the draft for the Indians, as they reached down to Divison II West Chester to select 2B Joe Wendle. Wendle was not ranked in BA’s top 500 before the draft, and signed for a $10,000 bonus. That’s well under the $176,600 slot for the pick, and will help the Indians sign some of the higher upside players they selected. Still, Wendle did hit .399/.479/.768 with 12 HR in college, and has the chance for an above-average hit tool down the road. He’s not a throwaway pick, but a guy who went a few rounds earlier than he would have under the old rules. Wendle was assigned straight to Mahoning Valley where he’s appeared in two games so far, going 2-8 with an RBI, a walk and a run scored.

With the signable 6^th rounder in the bag, it was back to upside for the Indians in the 7^th round when they selected Calhoun, Georgia HS outfielder Josh Schubert with the 233^rd overall choice. Schubert signed for $250,000, which is $104,400 more than the $145,600 recommended slot for the pick. He’s another raw, athletic, toolsy outfielder out of a high school in SEC country similar to 4^th round pick McClure. He’s got a 6’4”, 215lb frame that produces plus raw power, and should get even stronger as he fills out. He’s got a plus arm, and has future RF written all over him although he was a CF in high school. His senior year, he hit .447 with 6 HR and went 6-1 with a 2.68 ERA as a pitcher. He has slightly above-average speed as it stands right now, but will likely end up as no more than an average runner down the road. He hits from the right side, and prior to the draft Baseball America rated him as the #151 prospect in the country. He’s going to take some time to develop, but there’s a potential power-hitting RF here down the road.

With their 8^th round pick, the Indians went back to pitching with their selection of prep righty Caleb Hamrick out of Cedar Hill HS in Texas. He’s a 6-3, 225lb power pitcher who sits between 89-93 with his fastball. His main secondary offering is a sweeping slider that flashes plus. Hamrick has yet to sign, and slot for the pick is $136,600. It will almost certainly take more than that to bring him into the fold, and he has a scholarship waiting to attend Dallas Baptist. The Indians have an additional $714,700 sitting around under their bonus cap thanks to underslot signings, so there’s room there to make him a competitive enough offer to have him forgo that scholarship and begin his professional career now.

The Indians selected Arkansas State righty Jacob Lee with their 9^th round pick as another senior sign, and he obliged by agreeing to a $2,500 bonus, saving the Indians $124,500 under slot. He works between 89-91 with his fastball, and touches 93. It’s actually his 2^nd best pitch behind his plus curveball, which is already above average and could be plus down the road. His third pitch is a changeup, but it lags behind both the fastball and curveball. Lee was ranked as the #307 player in the country by Baseball America, and was the #293 overall selection.

The 10^th round pick was another senior, RHP Josh Martin out of Samford. He signed quickly for $5,000, a nice $120,000 under slot. He went 12-1 with a 2.96 ERA his senior year, and is a 6’5”, 234lb who touches 93 with his fastball. He actually reminds me a little of Zach McAllister from what I’ve read about him, and although he was a cheap sign it was hardly a throwaway pick.

Outside of the top 10 rounds, there are a few unsigned players that might be worth bonuses over the $100,000 cap that the new CBA mandates for selections 11-40. Their 26^th round selection Justin Garza is an intriguing arm who can pour in a fastball in the 91-95 MPH range despite being just 5’10”, 160lbs. He has a four pitch mix that includes an above average curveball as well as a slider and changeup. He attacks hitters He’d been rising up draft boards late in the process on the strength of a good senior year for Bonita HS in California, so much so that Keith Law ranked him #100 and was BA’s #130 player in their final rankings. The Indians selected him with the 803^rd pick in the draft, and will almost certainly have to pay him over $100k to sign him away from Cal St. Fullerton.

In the 33^rd round, the Indians took multi-sport athlete Cory Raley out of Uvalde HS in Texas. He’s a 6’2”, 185lb shortstop who should have the defensive chops to stay at the position long term. He has plus speed and below-average power, but does a nice job using the whole field and sprays line drives all over the place. He’s an outstanding athlete who rushed for 1,470 yards as a QB in Texas, scoring 20 TDs and is committed to playing baseball for Texas A&M. He’s another one who will be tough to sign away from his scholarship, as he was selected well below his overall talent level; he was the #1013 selection in the draft while Baseball America listed him as the #158 player available in the draft.

So that’s a quick look at the Indians 2012 draft with signing day approaching. I’m not going to give the draft a grade or anything like that because it is just way too early to make an educated assessment, especially when I haven’t seen these guys play for myself and am just relying on what ESPN, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America have to say about them. I’m really looking forward to following the new additions to the system as they make their debuts in Arizona and Mahoning Valley, and really can’t wait to get a look at them next spring in Goodyear. From 2008 through last year, the Indians have put together four really solid draft classes; I don’t see any reason for that to end here in 2012. 

Offensive Arms

Improbably, the Indians are back in 1^st place despite the fact that the season feels like it’s been slip-sliding away since that Tigers’ sweep nearly a month ago.  While the fact that the Tribe finds themselves atop the AL Central again may be more of a function of the rest of the AL Central (the White Sox have 3 starters with an ERA over 5.60) than an indication that the Indians are a burgeoning juggernaut, let’s enjoy the view from the top. 

After the Indians finish up with the NL Central (after the Reds leave, the Tribe heads to Houston), the Tribe embarks on a vicious part of their schedule, playing 17 of their next 24 games on the road, largely against the AL East (including EIGHT games against the Rays) with a sprinkling of the suddenly resurgent Angels as the only “respite” from the upcoming AL East gauntlet.  Once they wrap up in Houston, they will not play a team that currently has a losing record until they go to Motown on July 24^th…or more than a month from now.

So, as is always the case at the end of June and in the month of July, it’s time for the Indians to either firmly establish that they’re IN this AL Central battle to be the “best” mediocre team or go the way of the 2011 season.  Much will be learned about this club in the next month and while EVERYTHING that’s being written and talked about has focused on the offensive “struggles” and how the Indians are going to find prospects to get a big bat or which players the Indians are targeting to find that big bat, let’s look at something that’s kind of instructive here in an attempt to change (or at least broaden) the prevailing focus:

Indians – 4.36 runs per game

AL Average – 4.43 runs per game

Are the Indians below average, offensively-speaking in the AL?

Yes, but their run per game average puts them 8^th in the AL in runs scored per game. That is near the middle, though a little below the middle, among the 14 AL teams.  It puts them just below the Tigers (4.45 runs/game) and the Orioles (4.40 runs/game) and one spot ahead of the Rays (4.34 runs/game).  Take that any way that you want, but we’re nearing the mid-point of the season and the offense has been just about league-average, despite Santana’s massively concerning and frustrating power outage, Hafner’s injury, and with the LF “situation” seemingly causing the I-480 bridge to fill up on a nightly basis.

It is true that they have little power to speak of (though the Indians have a higher SLG than the Rays) and please don’t take that to mean that I’m Kevin Bacon out there yelling “Remain Calm…All is Well” to the stampeding masses as the offense is being largely paced by their superb middle infielders and 2/3 of their outfield.  Certainly, I don’t need to be told/reminded that LF is an issue, has been an issue, and could remain an issue because I don’t feel like finding or navigating through all of the links on what I’ve written about what should or should not be done in LF as – quite frankly – it depresses me to no end.  While I’m well aware that Johnny Damon is taking years off of all of your lives and is being vilified (rightly, in some cases…and there are some horrifying marital infidelity details from his book detailed here that I’ve never seen before) for what he is and what he isn’t, it is worth noting that the offense hasn’t been the Indians’ MAIN problem this year.

Is it frustrating and mind-numbing at times?

Of course…but in the context of the rest of the league, the Indians’ offense hasn’t been all that bad.  That’s damning with faint praise to be sure – and again, don’t take this to mean that the Indians should stand pat in terms of looking to upgrade (although there building sense that the Indians are waiting to see when/if Sizemore is going to come back before looking at add anything) their lineup with a RH bat who can play LF/1B/DH as Sizemore (when/if healthy), Hafner (when/if healthy) and Kotchman could all use rest vs. LHP – but if you’re looking at what the Indians have done as a whole, the pitching staff is much more culpable for their recent slide and for their ghastly run differential that leads so many to (rightly) be suspicious of the Indians’ season-long viability as a contender.  In terms of that run-differential, the Indians currently have the 2nd worst in the AL (only “better” than the moribund Twins) and to figure out why, you only have to look at where the Indians’ pitching staff ranks in the AL.

Indians’ – 4.57 ERA

AL average – 4.00 ERA

So, if the Indians offense is about in line with the AL average in terms of runs scored, their pitching is a half-run worse as they now rank second-to-last (above only that trainwreck in the Twin Cities) in Team ERA...and the advanced metrics aren’t much kinder.  Remember, their run per game average is 8^th in the AL…and their pitching is 13^th in the AL.  How this team is in 1^st place in mid-to-late-June is a riddle wrapped in a mystery and, as enjoyable as it may be to relish, the ugly facts are that their starters (4.64 ERA, 11^th in the AL) and their bullpen (4.45 ERA, worst in the AL) are equally culpable for the mess that is their staff.  And for as much attention as has been paid to the offense, what’s holding the Indians back is the inconsistency of their rotation and the inability to find relievers not named Smith, Pestano, and Perez that can be counted on with any sense of confidence.  

What’s most alarming though is that things don’t seem to be improving much.  Yes, Masterson looks MUCH better in recent weeks (1.80 ERA in his last three starts, not including Wednesday) and the Little Cowboy will continue to baffle me as I can’t figure out if he’s a Flyball pitcher, a K pitcher, or a GB-inducing machine from game to game (although maybe he’s just Paul Byrd…constantly reinventing himself), but as a whole, the performance of the starters is more than a little concerning for a team that is attempting to stay atop (or at least near the top) of the AL Central.

Starters by month

April – 3.93 ERA

May – 5.03 ERA

June – 4.75 ERA

Since May 1^st, the rotation has an ERA of 4.93 and – if you can believe it – the Indians are actually over .500 (albeit by the slimmest of margins at 24-23) during that stretch since the beginning of May.  In the last month, Lowe has a 9.36 ERA (5 games), Jeanmar has a 7.92 ERA (5 games), and Tomlin has a 5.65 ERA (5 starts, including Tuesday’s) with Ubaldo (4.85 ERA) actually being the second-most reliable starter over the course of the last month…as terrifying as that is to think about.

And that’s what seems to be overlooked on this Tribe team as everything harps away at Damon, the erstwhile and misplaced LF, or Lopez as a clean-up hitter or finding that BIG BAT, in that it may not really matter what or if the Indians add to their lineup if they can’t get some semblance of consistency and consistent success from their rotation.  Maybe that means that they target an arm in the Trade Market (as alluded to here last week) or maybe that means that they bring Zach McAllister back to Cleveland to replace an increasingly inefficient Jeanmar Gomez, but the improvement in the rotation is likely going to have to be largely internal, in terms of Ubaldo and Lowe (in particular) finding something that resembles success and Masterson continuing to lower his season ERA with each start. 

But the issues aren’t unique to the rotation because just as concerning is the Indians’ middle relief corps, an aspect of the team that has struggled to such a degree that Acta put a player that was recently DFA’d by the Rockies (Team ERA – 5.38) in to the biggest plate appearance of Tuesday’s game.  Luckily (for everyone), Esmil Rogers pitched his way out of the jam, but the insertion of Rogers into that bases-loaded situation provided – in a nutshell – how much (or how little) trust Acta has in his relievers not named Smith, Pestano, or Perez.  In the highest of high leverage situations, Acta turned to…a guy named Esmil that had been on the roster for about a week.

Don’t get me wrong, that mistrust in the middle relief corps is completely valid as – just as the Indians’ offense is largely reliant on the middle of the infield – the back of the Indians’ bullpen is responsible for much of the success that the Indians have had as a relief corps.  To wit, the Indians’ bullpen ERA is 4.45 (and that is the highest ERA in the AL for bullpens), and their bullpen ERA without Pestano and Perez is an astonishing 5.23.  Unfortunately, it isn’t getting better as the season progresses:

Pestano and Perez since beginning of May – 1.70 ERA in 37 IP

Rest of bullpen since beginning of May – 5.55 ERA in 99 IP

Now, I’m not sure what’s more concerning here about that set of numbers – the inability of the other relievers to hold opponents at bay or that Pestano and Perez have thrown more than a quarter of the innings out of the bullpen since May 1^st.  If you include Joe Smith in that usage percentage, realize that Smith, Pestano, and Perez have thrown 56 2/3 of the last 136 innings by relievers for the Indians – or 41.6% of the bullpen innings for the Tribe in the last 47 games.  What’s most stunning about that is that the trio of Smith, Pestano, and Perez generally pitch an inning at a time and STILL, they’ve been called upon to pitch more than 40% of the innings out of the bullpen for nearly 2 months now.

So where do the Indians go from here with the bullpen?
If I’m bringing McAllister up to the rotation, it might be interesting to see if Jeanmar could have any success as a long man, or maybe even if Corey Kluber would find some success as a long man, as he’s been much better as of late in AAA as he continues to strike guys out.  The fact that they’re scouring the waiver wire (Rogers, etc.) rather than bringing up the gaggle of arms (Herrmann, Ray, etc.) in the Clippers’ bullpen certainly would point to the idea that adding a piece to the bullpen is a pretty sound one.  Certainly, there is promise with guys like Hagadone and Barnes, but their uneven performances for the parent club remind us that constructing a bullpen – a WHOLE bullpen – is next to impossible and it becomes a matter of finding that lightning in a bottle and that right mix of relievers to shorten the game and protect a lead or not let a game get too far out of hand.  The Tribe has the trio in the back that can shorten the game, but they’ve been unable to find that right mix of arms to get to Smith, Pestano, and Perez with any regularity.  Maybe they call up a guy like Cody Allen or Bryce Stowell and see if they can find what they did (briefly) with Jensen Lewis and (currently) with Vinnie Pestano – another arm that can extend the effectiveness of the bullpen. 

 Unfortunately, until the Indians are able to get some length and quality out of their starting rotation and unless they’re able to find more bullpen arms outside of Smith, Pestano, and Perez to lean on, it isn’t going to matter if Jose Lopez is hitting clean-up or if Johnny Damon is raising blood pressures across the North Coast.  Fully realizing that seeing Lopez as the clean-up hitter or Damon at all in the field are TOTALLY occupying the talk on the Reservation, the truth is that the rotation and the middle relievers are KILLING this teams’ chances at running away with a very winnable division. 

Perhaps the Tribe will find some consistency in their rotation and a bullpen arm will emerge on the upcoming road trip (and they better feast on the Astros before their schedule turns brutal through the end of July) but the Indians’ contention is likely to hinge on their pitching staff.  While the offense receives most of the attention (and figures to continue to), the ability of the pitching staff to keep the team in games – instead of behind in them…early – is going to dictate whether the Indians can make it through their upcoming gauntlet of the AL East teams (where runs are plentiful) as an AL Central contender or as a pretender…

A Power Hungry Lazy Sunday

As Interleague Play rolls on and as preparations begin here for a party in which beer, liquor, and various grilled meats will be consumed by deserving Fathers, let’s get off right away into a Lazy Sunday, with the “spoiler” that today’s Lazy One will be a bit abbreviated because I’ve been busy making multiple trips to Minotti’s and getting various sausages from the West Side Market to go along with the casings of meat brought down from Milwaukee by my visiting father-in-law, while readying the house (and the fridge) for today’s festivities.

That said, it is Sunday and it is time to unleash a Lazy One, so with a quick nod to Father everywhere, let’s get it going…

Though the pitching is what betrayed the Indians in the Queen City (and on Saturday night), the offense continues to get the most attention, to the point that the lack of power for the Tribe was the subject of a recent drive-by analysis from Fangraphs.  As usual, the Fangraphs (great site for stats, lousy site for analysis) piece was pretty simplistic and, though it didn’t devolve quickly into a piece relying only on WAR (while ignoring the obvious flaws in WAR, particularly in small sample), the piece boiled down to pointing out that the Indians – as a team – have a low slugging percentage and a low Isolated Power (SLG minus Batting Average) – with the conclusion that the Indians’ weak spots are in…wait for it…LF and 1B. 

While that conclusion could be reached by anyone who even took a quick look at the Indians’ stats for the Tribe regulars or anyone who has watched a couple of games, the fact that the Indians rank SO low among AL teams in pretty much all the power categories do raise some pretty bright red flags.  But looking at that link above that shows the offensive numbers for the Indians’ regulars, what’s more glaring to me is to look at the players that should be pacing the Indians’ power numbers and, in particular, the player that most assumed to be the Indians’ main power source for 2012 – Carlos Santana – and how his recent…well, “slump”, I guess have thrown the Indians’ offense into a punchless tailspin.  

In case you haven’t noticed, The Axe Man has seen his production drop precipitously (and the drop started well before the concussion) to the point that his 2012 numbers don’t even resemble what he was able to compile in 2011:

Santana

2011 – .239 BA / .351 OBP / .457 SLG / .808 OPS

2012 – .230 BA / .350 OBP / .361 SLG / .712 OPS

What’s stunning about this is that Santana still has that low batting average (that is the bane of Sports Talk Radio Hosts everywhere) and the high OBP, meaning that “good eye” is still there, but compared to last year – when Santana looked for “his” pitch and crushed it – he’s not hitting for power…at all.  Mike Brantley has a higher SLG than The Axe Man right now as he has only 15 XBH in 53 games and the last couple of XBH that he’s hit (like Friday night’s “double”…which was a grounder down the 3B line that made it into LF) have not exactly been the booming gappers that we saw last year and certainly aren’t the majestic drives that gave us something to dream on for the future.

Which brings us to the next set of comparative numbers:

Santana XBH% (Percentage of PA that end up in an XBH)

2011 – 9.7%

2012 – 6.4%

Santana HR/FB% (quite obviously, the percentage of Fly Balls that become HR)

2011 – 14.1%

2012 – 6.8%

He’s HR/FB% is less than ½ of what it was last year and if you want some perspective on the XBH%, Lou Marson – in 2012 – has a higher XBH% than Santana does right now.  And I don’t say that to besmirch Marson (who I think should be playing more than he is), but to point out that Santana’s 2012 has been disappointing, if somehow under-the-radar disappointing.  If you remember, there was concern when 2011 started that The Axe Man would be feeling the lingering effects of his knee injury and could affect his performance at the plate.  But Santana’s 2011 felt like a harbinger of an arrival…an “arrival” that hasn’t happened yet – on a consistent basis, at least.  To get some perspective on how Santana’s 2012 has disappointed, take a look at where he ranks among MLB catchers in terms of offensive production.

It wasn’t that long ago that it was thought that Santana’s bat was elite as a C and merely excellent as a 1B (using Marson as a C) and that still may happen, but to see the drop-off in Santana’s HR/FB% is startling when you see it more than halved and when you look at it combined with what’s happening among the other top 4 hitters on the team, you start to see that – while everyone wants to focus on LF or 1B for the lack of power – the players that the Indians may have been expecting to provide the punch haven’t done so for them:

Choo

HR/FB%

2011 – 6.7%

2012 – 5.9%

Prior to The BLC’s 2 HR performance against Cincy, this number was 3.7% for 2012, and he’s actually the closest of any player worth mentioning to his 2011 numbers as Choo also has a SLG in line with where it was last year and he’s hitting more XBH compared to 2011, with his frequency of XBH this year more in line with what he had done prior to 2011.  He may not be “back” to his 2008-2010 production, but seeing him even close to it is a welcome sign.

Cabrera

HR/FB%

2011 – 10.5%

2012 – 5.5%

Certainly, nobody thought his torrid 2011 HR pace would be duplicated and his numbers are pretty similar across the board compared to last year except (quite obviously) his HR totals, but he has a lower HR/FB% than every regular other than Brantley, and speaking of Mike…

Brantley

HR/FB%

2011 – 4.0%

2012 – 1.1%

His SLG is still under .400 and Andrew Clayman points out (in a great piece) that his numbers from last year at this time were better than they are now, so there still needs to be a kernel of skepticism here…even though that’s not always fun to do.  In bringing that to our attention, Clayman also notes the HR drop from this time last year (5 at this time in 2011, 1 currently) for Mike, something that you can see in the reduced HR/FB rate.

Kipnis

HR/FB%

2011 – 14.6%

2012 – 9.8%

If you can believe it, Kipnis’ numbers are down from his time with the Tribe last year and don’t take that as a complaint against Kipnis, who is the only Indian hitting HR this year.  But, his HR/FB% is down this year and it’s worth pointing out.

That said, it is also worth pointing out about Kipnis is what a scout recently told B-Pro’s John Perrotto on Kipnis:

Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis: “He’s the next Dustin Pedroia or Chase Utley; he’s that good. He has a nice, compact swing and sprays the ball all over the field, but he also knows how to turn on a pitch and hit out of the park. He’s getting better defensively all the time, and he’s a good baserunner. In a couple of years, we will likely being calling him the premier second baseman in the game.”

Where have I heard that comparison before?

Oh…that’s right.

Regardless of whether Kipnis is Pedroia or Utley, it needs to be said that before the Indians consider going out and adding anything (and again, I’m not so sure that “BIG RH BAT” is at the top of their shopping list…if such a shopping list exists), they need to get some production out of their current lineup and some more power from pieces already here – most notably Santana.

Because after a hot start, Santana has flatlined, to the point that since May 6^th (admittedly an arbitrary date), he has an OBP of .320 and his SLG is LOWER than that (.311) with just 1 HR in his last 30 games.  Maybe The Axe Man misses Hafner more than one thinks as his OPS is just .479 since Pronk hit the DL in late May of this year and that is not without precedent, if you remember last year, when Hafner was gone from May 17^th through June 17^th, Santana saw his OPS drop from .786 to .712 in that month last year as he posted a .191 BA / .312 OBP / .292 SLG / .604 OPS over the course of that month’s worth of games in 2011.

Oddly enough, from that point when Hafner returned last year (June 17^th) to the end of the season, Santana posted an .870 OPS, so maybe this is just a down time of the year for him or maybe Santana is just streakier than we all want to admit.  Let’s remember that The Axe Man has 5 HR this year as we approach the 65-game mark (40% of the season) and it is worth noting that he had 7 HR on June 16^th of last year.  That said, the Indians are going to need a flurry similar to what he did last year (he hit 20 HR in his last 92 games) to even stick around in this AL Central as the Indians need to STICK around the AL Central for the next 6 weeks or so to justify adding that BIG RH bat that dominates conversation.

And really that “big bat, big bat, big bat” is dominating conversation about the Indians, from the North Coast to a couple hours north of the Amalfi Coast, as the names “Quentin”, “Willingham”, and “Soriano” have been uttered more than current Indians in the past couple of weeks.  But let’s remember that Carlos Santana is supposed to be the big bat in their lineup and getting him back to 2011 levels may be more important to the Indians’ long-term chances of contention more than anything that they’re going to add.  That may sound odd, but let’s remember that Carlos Santana hit 27 HR last year, in his first full season in MLB, as a 26-year-old.

Those 27 HR hit by Santana last year were one less than Josh Willingham, one more than Al Soriano, and three more than Carlos Quentin.

Really…

Now, if you want to make the argument that the Indians need to add a bat to be paired with Santana, you’ll get no argument here, but for that bat to be “paired” with Santana presupposes that Santana is going to go off on a hot streak in these final months of the season, as he did last year.  For the Indians, they better hope that’s the case (offensive addition or not), because with Kipnis emerging and Cabrera and Brantley providing some XBH, the Indians do need someone to start hitting HR and the best man to fill that role may be one that’s already on the roster…

Making the Pitch

In the throes of an extended road trip that runs along with the Tribe playing the top three teams in the NL Central, the Indians are looking to continue to keep pace in a division that looks more mediocre as each week passes.  Their series victory in St. Louis was paced by their starting pitchers as (stop me if you’ve seen or heard this recently) Masterson and Ubaldo limited their walks and found some level of effectiveness as the result of the Indians’ games was (unsurprisingly) dictated by how well the starters pitched.  Certainly, that’s not anything new…as much focus gets placed on (teeth gnashing, wailing, moaning, etc.) 1B and/or LF and the lack of production coming from those two spots.

While that may sound dismissive and disingenuous after spilling too much e-ink this past weekend on LF to make fun of, the fact of the matter is that the Indians will go only as far as their rotation will take them.   That’s not any great revelation, but it’s something that was put into much sharper focus over the weekend as the Indians’ Mark Shapiro sat down with Bill Lubinger of the PD to answer a great many questions, with the final takeaway on THIS team being one that shouldn’t surprise you…though it may.

By now, you’ve probably seen Shapiro’s Q & A from Sunday’s PD that hit on a myriad of topics.  While it is interesting that Shapiro (not the GM anymore) continues to be questioned on specific player transactions (here and elsewhere), the whole piece was pretty interesting.  If you haven’t seen it, there’s a lot that’s covered on attendance, revenues/profits, big vs. small markets, STO, Progressive Field going forward (and here’s a recent “review” of our fair park at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario), Ubaldo, “Fausto”, and the Dolans…and actually probably a little more.  While it doesn’t shed THAT much more light on some situations (as Shapiro has long been the master of talking a lot, but “saying” very little), there were some nuggets that caught my eye.

Certainly, I realize that some will focus on the STO relationship in light of the current explosion of TV revenue around the league and Shapiro essentially saying that the Indians are NOT happy with the current structure in MLB as it pertains to large and small market teams, as he claims that they fight most of their battles behind closed doors.  Many will probably question that, though it is interesting to remember this little back and forth between Larry Dolan and George Steinbrenner almost a decade ago (seriously…go read those linked stories and tell me who remembers that), with very little coming from it.  But most of Shapiro’s talking points are things that we’ve heard for a while…

Most interesting to me (as it pertains to the team on the field currently) was the answer to the final question posed by Lubinger:

PD: Besides staying healthy, what has to happen with this team to be playing in October?

MS: Starting pitching. Justin Masterson has to move closer to the guy he was last year -- not the guy -- but move closer, Ubaldo has got to continue to move closer to the guy that pitched [June 5 in Detroit] ... Zach McAllister comes up and becomes a contributing pitcher for us and maybe that’s it, I don’t know. But I’m a big believer that starting pitching puts you in a position to win games every night, and I’m a huge believer that if our starting pitching gives us a chance, our lineup is more than good enough, our manager gets the most our of our lineup, creates an environment where our players play hard, and our manager puts them in a position to be successful. ... If that happens, I think we’re going to be playing meaningful games here in September.

Again, Shapiro isn’t the GM anymore and the idea that Masterson and Ubaldo will likely determine how the season goes is no great revelation to anyone who’s been paying attention.  Certainly, nearly ALL of the focus goes to 1B or LF (guilty here this past weekend), but the team will only go as far as the rotation will take them…and, more succinctly, as far as Masterson and Ubaldo will take them.  That may terrify some (although both have looked good as of late…with the obvious caveat that they’ve looked good in small spurts before), but it really is true as the Indians are going to struggle to hang around – even in the absurdly flawed AL Central – with no production or consistency coming from the “top of their rotation”.

But that all kind of goes without saying…

The money line (and you may have noticed because I put it in bold) comes when he said, “Our lineup is more than good enough” and that he is a “Big believer that starting pitching puts you in a position to win games every night”.  So, as we all sit and wonder how much the Cubs would eat on Soriano’s contract (or where he would play and if he would even prosper here) and dream about Carlos Quentin as an Indian, here’s Shapiro saying that “our lineup is more than good enough”.

Maybe you disagree…and that’s certainly a position that is easy to support and/or defend, but think back to last July.  The Indians were in the hunt in the AL Central, with an offense that was sputtering and a rotation that had carried them through the first couple of months that was showing (as Harry Doyle would put it) “signs of fatigue”.  They went out and didn’t acquire Carlos Beltran (though most of that was Beltran’s doing) or the “impact bat” that many saw as the great need for the team.  Yes…they eventually went out and added Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Thome, but those were ancillary additions later in the season.  At the Trade Deadline, they traded in their biggest chips for what they thought was another “ace” to pair with Masterson at the top of the rotation.

While the idea that Ubaldo will resemble anything close to an “ace” seems laughable at times, the thought process (and Shapiro’s recent comments) do certainly give pause to the idea that the Indians are just going to look to add a bat and see if they can gain some traction in the AL Central.  If you’re looking at the (recent) past and what Shapiro says he’s a “big believer” in, you would have to believe that the Indians would be looking to upgrade their rotation, perhaps even more than they’d be looking to add that 1B or LF bat that has eluded them for what seems like a decade.

Certainly, getting Masterson AND Ubaldo back to some level of production close to Masterson’s 2011 and Ubaldo’s…well, anything BUT 2011 is vitally important to settling the “top” of the rotation.  Lowe (which was an acquisition EARLY in the off-season as they…wait for it…immediately looked to upgrade their rotation before anything else when 2011 ended) looks like a find, even if he’s going to struggle to find consistency.  He looks as advertised – a veteran innings-eater whose presence in the rotation and in the clubhouse could provide what Millwood did in 2005 (even if he’s unlikely to win the ERA title) in that Acta can put his name down for every 5^th day and get a solid outing out of him. 

Beyond those three (to me, at least) it gets a little more interesting with Tomlin and Gomez currently in the rotation and with McAllister in AAA.  Interestingly, Shapiro named Tomlin as a “core” player (along with Kipnis, Santana, Brantley, Cabrera, and Choo on offense with Masterson, Pestano, and Perez on the pitching side) when asked by Lubinger to identify the “core” and, while I’ve been critical of the “Lil Cowboy” from time to time (once even evoking Jeremy Sowers as a comparable), Tomlin is a fine middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation starter.  While I’d probably say close to “back” of the rotation, he’s now thrown nearly 300 MLB IP and has a 4.45 career ERA with a 1.16 WHIP, improving his K rate this year to respectable levels.  Though I’m not sure that a pitcher like that counts as a “core” player as much as the other ones that Shapiro mentioned, Tomlin is certainly a useful piece who has averaged 165 IP (using both MLB and MiLB tallies) over the last three years and he’s not even eligible for arbitration until the end of NEXT year.

But even though McAllister was mentioned by Shapiro and Gomez has shown signs of being a useful piece, you can’t help but feel that the Indians might be looking to upgrade their starting rotation to stabilize it going forward, feeling that an arm may be more impactful than a bat down the stretch in the AL Central.  Gomez has been particularly inconsistent recently as he has a 5.75 ERA in his last 7 starts and had a 9.77 ERA in his last three starts prior to Monday’s game.  While you could say that Gomez’s start on Monday was a positive step (or at least a solid start), Acta certainly didn’t make it sound like that:

“It was OK…Barely 50 percent of his pitches for strikes. He really battled. He deserves some credit, because he didn’t have his slider today at all and he made some pitches in some situations where he had runners in scoring position — that helped himself out. I wouldn’t qualify it as a great start, but he deserves credit.”

What’s concerning is that since Gomez’s hot start (2.82 ERA after 5 starts), he’s walked more hitters (19) than he’s struck out (16) and he’s given up 5 HR in those last 7 starts, which include Monday.  Gomez now has the 3rd lowest K/9 among AL starters and unlike the two pitchers lower than him (Henderson Alvarez and Derek Lowe), he doesn’t have the big GB% necessary to make it work…yet, at least.  Obviously, he’s still young (24) as is McAllister (also 24), but both of those players don’t project to be much more than middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starters (at best) and a guy like Gomez is actually probably best utilized (at this point in his career) as more of a swing man.  Maybe they have confidence that Gomez or McAllister will get into a groove, but I would think that neither of those players would prevent them from looking to upgrade their rotation…and it doesn’t sound like the Carmona/Hernandez situation is any closer to resolution, despite the best efforts of the “lobbyist” hired by “Fausto’s” agents to make it look otherwise as what Al intimated a couple of weeks ago falls more in line with what Shapiro told Lubinger.

So if the Indians (or at least Shapiro) rightly thinks that the rotation holds the key to the season, if their young pitchers underwhelm, and if “Fausto” isn’t coming back anytime soon, wouldn’t it stand to reason that they may be active in looking to augment the roster, but maybe not with the “bat” that everyone seems to assume?

Certainly, they don’t have the trade chips that they did at this time last year (and you could make the argument that the Indians should have more aggressively targeted the since-traded Gio Gonzalez from the A’s, who was under team control through 2015 prior to his recent extension, last July over Ubaldo), but they could be active in looking for a starting pitcher from one of the few “sellers” come July, even if the Trade Market for starting pitchers (which every team wants) figures to be more than a little competitive and pretty thin.  Since I’ll rule out Cole Hamels outright (as I don’t think he gets traded), you have LHP Wandy Rodriguez at the top of the list.  On the positive side, he’s under club control through the 2014 season (just as Ubaldo was not a “rental”), though his price tag with that club control is high, due $14.5M next year and in 2014, with a $2.5M buyout.  He is certainly enticing, although I’m sure that the Astros would be looking to cash in their biggest trade chip as the rebuild continues in Houston, likely looking for the moon and the stars for Wandy with the Indians’ farm system boasting no moon and very few stars not named Lindor.  As is the case with Wandy, the cost for the Cubs’ duo of starting pitchers who may be made available (Garza and Dempster) could be prohibitive – in terms of what Theo and the boys would want for either – to the point that the Indians probably wouldn’t have the trade ammunition to make it work.

After that trio, you have a number of arms that you hear over and over this time every year, from Kevin Millwood to Erik Bedard (though I’m not sure the Pirates will be sellers) to Jeremy Guthrie.  At a certain point, you start to wonder if these guys are legitimate upgrades over the likes of McAllister, but there is one name that does stand out as a possible target to add to the rotation who could fit the Indians’ “need” in the rotation – Bartolo Colon.

Don’t laugh at the idea that an allegedly 39-year-old Colon wouldn’t perhaps be an upgrade to the Tribe rotation as he’s sitting on a 4.21 ERA (would be 2^nd best among current Tribe starters), a 1.32 WHIP (would be 2^nd best among current Tribe starters), and a 3.31 K/BB (would be best among current Tribe starters) for the A’s.  Obviously, I’d prefer a Brandon McCarthy if we’re picking through the bones of Oakland’s remains, but Colon’s numbers have been fairly consistent (and consistently good) since having a…um, procedure that rejuvenated his career prior to the 2011 season.

Frankly, if we’re following the modus operandi from the last few years that the team has contended and the Tribe is looking to get an old Indian back in every year that we look to be contending (Lofton in 2007, Jimmy last year), why not welcome Boogie back into the mix?

His price tag might be something that the Tribe could “afford” (and I’m talking about players to trade, not his actual salary) and don’t forget that the A’s have a couple of hitters that may be deemed expendable (like Jonny Gomes, who has always hit LHP well) by the A’s and attractive to the Tribe, so the Indians might be able to find a partner in the Bay Area.  While I’d (continue to) love to see Josh Reddick make his way to the North Coast, let’s keep on task here…

Actually, we’ll go for a quick aside because Yahoo’s Jeff Passan had a great early look at 2013 FA Class (which often includes the same players that are made available in trades mid-season), with the OF and SP (hey…we might need both of those)  in the upcoming class looking particularly strong.  Of course, since Passan wrote that, Andre Ethier signed a 5-year deal worth $85M with a vesting option for 2018 that could make the deal worth $100M, causing many to call it an overpay and making Scott Boras hope beyond hope that Mike Ilitch is still writing checks in Detroit for the day that Choo hits the open market.

Regardless (and back to the matter at hand), while EVERYTHING regarding a possible Indians’ addition (and it is still early) has focused on finding the power bat for 1B or LF, past actions and the words of the team president may point to the Indians going in another direction to augment the current club.  Certainly, if the Indians could find an arm in the way that the Tigers did last year when Fister was added (who did for the Tigers what Ubaldo was SUPPOSED to do for the Tribe), that would be the ideal, but even finding an upgrade for their rotation while allowing guys like Gomez and McAllister to slot into depth roles for the day when (not if) injuries affect the rotation may be what’s in the offing.

As much as the continued performances of Masterson and Ubaldo (most notably) are going to dictate where this season goes, it’s not difficult to see a rotation that “boasts” only one ERA+ above 100 (meaning better than league average) needing a boost.  Whether that “boost” takes precedence over anything that might be considered for the lineup, the fact that Shapiro feels that “our lineup is more than good enough” and considers himself a “big believer” in starting pitching may have tipped the organization’s hand in what they might be looking for in the next six weeks or so…and it isn’t something that fits neatly into the middle of the lineup.

A Lazy Sunday Out in Left Field

With June now in full swing, complete with Tee Ball games, neighborhood Happy Hours and the unbridled joy with (finally) finding GLBC’s The Wright Pils at my local Heinen’s, things are good on the North Coast as the Indians remain near the top of the AL Central.  Certainly glaring holes persist and continue to concern, but before getting into the “hole” on the Indians that gets the most attention, let’s take a quick look around the rest of the top of the AL Central and see  Detroit going under the microscope again, this time by Jay Jaffe of his new “Hit and Run” feature at SI (which is a new feature at SI.com that is worth a look) and a realization that the White Sox have been paced by three players on the wrong side of 30.  Though I’d never bet against Paul Konerko and the body of work he’s put up (good read here, even if it contains the words “Hawk” and “Harrelson” in the same sentence), it remains to be seen how they’d be able to handle an injury or two, particularly because their supporting cast (like the Tigers) is pretty non-supportive, with not much by way of reinforcements on the horizon.

And with that mention of “reinforcements” on the horizon, now is a good time to look at that aforementioned “hole” on the Indians that has generated more hand-wringing and hair-pulling since a “man” named Dellichaels patrolled the same hallowed ground those many years ago – LF.  Despite the fact that the offense hasn’t been the problem for the Indians (this has), since SO much focus has been placed on this “need” for a RH bat, with LF as the obvious spot for one, let’s spend a Lazy Sunday out in LF…

Seeing as how the question of “how did we get here” in LF is a rabbit hole I’ve already jumped through and since I have no intention of revisiting that cold, dark place that it led to where names like Trevor Crowe (currently in Akron) are mentioned, let’s take the opportunity to look forward.  Because “where we’re going” in terms of LF is much more interesting as we’re entering about a 6-week stretch that could determine what’s going to eventually going to happen in LF for the rest of the season.  The reason that 6-week timeframe is mentioned is because as Grady’s recovery hit (another) setback and with Damon looking better as of late (small sample size siren blaring) with Matt LaPorta (for whatever reason) on the parent club, the Trade Deadline at the end of July could serve as the endpoint to the stretch of games we’re embarking upon.

Since I’m not going to be the guy to hammer away at the “Buyers” or “Sellers” theme in mid-June in the interest of page clicks and realizing that there’s a LOT that can happen between now and then, while it didn’t seem like there was a lot of clarity on the Grady situation when Castrovince wrote this thoroughly depressing piece a while back, the news that he’s not even running right now calls into question whether he’s coming back…ever.  And that leaves us where we are, with Damon taking the majority of the reps in LF, Duncan as a RH bat off of the bench, and with LaPorta looking (once again) like the Matt LaPorta we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the last few years.

While many have (already) soured on Damon and were pleading for LaPorta to get a chance in Cleveland, it always reeked to me of the “Second-String QB” town that Cleveland has become in the past decade or so, with the argument that he “couldn’t be much worse” than Damon and/or Duncan (don’t get me started on people that are complaining about Cunningham’s presence on the roster as that’s baseball discourse at it’s lowest level) as a LF as justification to get another extended look at LaPorta in LF.  Now, with MaTola on the Indians and looking every bit as bad at the plate (just count how many off-speed pitches/curveballs he misses in between wristing fastballs JUST out of the infield) as he always has, the calls for LaPorta to get consistent playing time have diminished significantly…and in pretty short order.

Interestingly, what has been most telling about MaTola’s brief time with the Tribe – other than remembering what he looks like flailing at pitches down and away or grounding out meekly to SS on the 1^st pitch of an AB or being out of position at 1B…all in the first game – was the language that was used by both LaPorta and the organization as it related to his call-up.  Though this was admittedly from a week ago, LaPorta’s words prior to last Sunday’s games was only the first sign of an obviously growing disconnect between player and organization.  Quoth LaPorta, to reporters on Sunday:

 “I’m up here hopefully to help contribute to this ballclub…If it’s two days, three days, a week -- doesn’t matter.

--snip--

“I just need to have fun, play the game the way I know how and not worry about what [the media is] thinking, what somebody else is thinking or what a fan is thinking.  It’s been a problem that I’ve had to overcome. I can’t control what other people think. I’m not in control of somebody else’s happiness. If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry.”

Wait…“If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry”?

How does this suddenly fall at the feet of “you guys” (the media), “a fan” or “what somebody else is thinking” in terms of being disappointed with him, a 27-year-old failed power prospect with a career OPS under .700 in more than 1,000 plate appearances?

Let’s see…who did we miss here in terms of passively/aggressively finding people to blame – Ozzie Guillen for dubbing him “MaTola” (and please read this if you’re wondering where “MaTola” came from or want to read the most overtly dismissive soundbite from an opposing manager regarding one player) when he explained his reasoning to leave the RH Peavy in a game in April of 2010, instead of going to LHP Joe Thornton?  

Regardless, LaPorta knows where he stands in the organization (which isn’t very high) and almost seems resigned to the idea that he’ll make his way out of the Indians’ organization after the season because he “can’t control what other people think” and because he’s “not in control of somebody else’s happiness”.  Of course, he ignores the fact that he had over 1,000 PA as an Indian (Andy Marte had 858 PA for Cleveland) and has numbers that are basically akin to what David Dellucci did in his time on the North Coast…seriously, look at the numbers for LaPorta and Dellucci, as an Indian.

But if he’s ignoring it, don’t think that Acta was going to let this idea that LaPorta is an obvious upgrade to the roster is going to slip by his desk without throwing in his opinion on it, as he had this to say when MaTola was called up:

“At the beginning, his (AAA) numbers were a lot better at home than on the road, but the overall numbers are there…He’s been doing a good job. If you look at the amount of at-bats he’s had in [Class AAA] the last couple of years, the numbers are pretty good.

They felt that he was doing the right things over there. He was having success and hitting mistakes whenever [pitchers] made mistakes on him. We have to see that translate up here.”

And there – right there – is why I love Manny Acta.

He basically said that LaPorta’s AAA success came from “hitting mistakes whenever (pitchers) made mistakes on him” and that “we have to see that translate up here”, meaning that the organization doesn’t think that anything’s really changed with MaTola.  He was a mistake-ball hitter in MLB the last couple of years, continued to be a mistake-ball hitter in AAA (where there are more “mistakes” made by pitchers) this year and there’s no great confidence that he’s going to be anything more than that.  Ultimately, we’re still talking about a 27-year-old player with a slugging percentage UNDER .400 with 30 career HR in 270 games.  For a player that was supposed to be as close-to-MLB ready as he was purported to be (now almost FOUR years ago), that’s unbelievable.

Now, if fans want to continue to believe that LaPorta is “close to breaking out” or deserves one last chance to sink or swim as an Indian, they can have at it.  I’ll be pleased to know that the Indians are not similarly deluding themselves as an organization into believing that he is something that he is not.

So, if LaPorta isn’t the answer in LF (and he isn’t), than what is?

To date, Indians’ LF have posted a cumulative line of .184 BA / .286 OBP / .272 SLG / .588 OPS with only 9 XBH in 239 PA on the whole season.  That’s impossibly bad (plus an OBP higher than a SLG) and though the Nationals’ LF have a lower OPS, that XBH total is jarring to see past the quarter pole, particularly when Carlos Quentin just returned from the DL for San Diego and has 9 XBH in only 35 PA…but I’ll get to that.

That said, on this island of depression, what are the Indians to do if Grady isn’t coming back anytime soon, if Matt LaPorta is Matt LaPorta, if Shelley Duncan is a great RH bat off the bench and clubhouse presence but not an everyday player and if Johnny Damon has just recently started to look like an actual MLB player again?

For now, I think that you put Johnny Damon out there every day (fielding and throwing…um, “concerns” and all) to see if he’s able to settle into a groove.  You may be fighting back down the bile after reading that, but he’s looked better since coming back from paternity leave and he’s actually performed pretty well as of late (.976 OPS since May 27^th…small sample size louder than ever), so I’d be inclined to see what he could do through the month of July.  Let’s not forget that Damon had a decent year last year for the Rays (16 HR, .744 OPS) and while much of that came as a DH, concerns that he’s simply chasing 3,000 have been allayed a little as he’s sitting on a BB% this year that would rank as the highest in his career if it were to remain steady.

Additionally, Damon was unquestionably rushed to the team (he’s played in all of 29 games so far) and – if this talk of him using the month of May as Spring Training are anywhere close to true – I’d let out the rope on him and see if his early June success can continue.  Damon’s 2011 rate stats compare favorably to those from LaPorta (similar HR%, lower K%, higher BB%) and Damon actually had a higher SLG (.418) than LaPorta did (.412) last year, so this talk of “power potential” for LaPorta is more than just a little overblown, at least in terms of thinking that he’s going to hit for more power than Damon in MLB on a consistent basis.

Yes, Damon’s defense is…um…“suspect” and he’s LH, but everyone remembers LaPorta in LF, right?  Do we need to be reminded of that, in the way that his recent “performance” at the plate since being recalled has brought back his 2011 plate appearances memories so vividly? 

Also, while some paint LaPorta as the RH bat that will solve all that ails the Indians against LHP (or at least help), remember this:

MaTola vs. LHP – career (269 PA)

.209 BA / .297 OBP / .319 SLG / .617 OPS

MaTola vs. RHP – career (750 PA)

.247 BA / .304 OBP / .420 SLG / .724 OPS

Other than seeing that LaPorta has actually hit RHP better than LHP in his career to date, this is shown here to point out that MaTola’s career OPS vs. LHP (.617) would rank him 8^th when compared to how current Indians are faring against LHP this season, including behind Shelley Duncan.  So, as much as LaPorta may have mashed his way out of Columbus, my guess is that he’s going to find himself there soon enough as he is not an answer – short-or-long-term.

If it seems that I’m beating up LaPorta unnecessarily, I do so only because it needs to be pointed out that he is NOT a better option than Johnny Damon, who should be given a longer leash than what many fans want to give him because he still represents the best current option on the roster in LF, age considered.  Maybe that causes you to shudder a little bit (and we all know how we got here) and realizing he’s the best current option is certainly damning with faint praise, but this is the situation that the Indians find themselves in as it pertains to LF and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Indians keep Damon (with a sprinkling of Duncan) going until mid-to-late-July.  At that point, they can evaluate Damon’s contributions to date, see where Grady is (or is not) and perhaps explore the Trade Market. 

In terms of that Trade Market, since Buster Olney wrote this week that Carlos Quentin would be a “perfect fit” for the Indians, the Quentin idea is interesting (and one I alluded to a couple of weeks ago) as he’s played only 10 games and he’s already being mentioned as a Trade Candidate.  Sure, San Diego GM Josh Byrnes is saying all the right things publicly (“we’re still exploring signing him long-term”, “we need his bat in the middle of the lineup”, etc.), but the Padres are likely to move him at some point in the next month of so, with MLBTR putting forth that the could be one of the only “impact” bats available this Trading season…though he will not come cheap.  

In fact, the MLBTR piece provides a nice encapsulation of the Quentin situation and the dearth of power that could be available, driving up his price tag, quite nicely:

When GM Josh Byrnes acquired Quentin last December, he sent minor league left-hander Pedro Hernandez and right-hander Simon Castro, a former top-100 prospect, to the White Sox. The Padres may be able to acquire better prospects if Quentin’s knee holds up and his bat returns to form. As I mentioned before, there doesn’t seem to be much power on the trade market (Alfonso Soriano could probably be had, but he earns $18MM in 2013 and 2014, which makes things messy). And it could take a while for bats to become available because more teams than ever are within striking distance of a playoff berth.

Once Quentin plays enough to show he is healthy, Byrnes could make him available and wait for other teams to start making offers. The Indians, Orioles and Dodgers are among the teams that might have interest in adding a right-handed hitting outfielder with power in the next eight weeks. If Quentin is healthy the Padres may come out ahead this summer and trade him for better prospects than the ones they surrendered to acquire him.

Certainly, the Indians would be on the list of interested teams, but with Quentin coming off the DL and already having hit 5 HR, you’d have to think that his price tag is being driven up with each XBH.  Which brings us to the question of what young players the Indians would even have to trade for Quentin’s services?

In mid-May, it was suggested that it would take “more middle-infield depth in the high minors”, which the Indians actually have in players like Cord Phelps and Jason Donald.  Don’t take that to mean that Quentin could be had Phelps/Donald and Dave Huff and Trevor Crowe and…hmm, let’s see what other ancillary player can I think of that would not interest the Padres at all as I look (in jest) for the ESPN Trade Machine…

However, the Indians and Padres have been trade partners fairly recently, with the Friars being able to turn some of the Tribe’s young relievers (Mike Adams, Mujica, and Cory Burns…who is torching AAA bats right now) of the past into useful pieces.  Of course, the Padres have been able to turn LOTS of arms into useful relievers and you could certainly argue that the Indians simply wouldn’t have the chips to cash in for Quentin (even as a rental) that would be more attractive than offers from other teams.  But if the Padres are looking for middle infielders and/or power arms to fill in their bullpen, the Indians might (stress on that word) be able to perhaps find a match.  Don’t forget that Padres’ GM Josh Byrnes cut his teeth in Cleveland and that the Indians brought him in to find a position for him when he was fired in Arizona a few years back.  That may mean nothing in terms of a Quentin trade, but that relationship does exist, even if the Indians are going to have to sweeten any pot with more than just happy memories in Cleveland.

If it does come down to sweetening the pot for a guy like Quentin (who must have been the only Stanford guy NOT drafted by the Indians in the 2000s), I would think that any prospect not named Lindor would be fair game for me and I’d probably include that top layer of relievers (Barnes, Lee, etc.) with the exception of Hagadone because Quentin fills a need for now and for later.  Remember, Hafner’s money comes off of the books after this season, as does Grady’s, and there’s no guarantee that Carmona/Hernandez is going to be around in 2013, so the Indians could have the wherewithal to trade for Quentin with the idea that they’d offer him the contract that they should have offered to Willingham, filling a massive hole in LF and in their lineup in the process.

It was thought at the time Quentin was traded to the Padres that a stumbling block to the Indians acquiring him was the…um, contentious relationship between the Front Offices at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and on the South Side.  Don’t think that the Indians wouldn’t love to slot Quentin into their lineup for purposes more than just his bat.  Certainly, he’s had injury issues in the past (he’s never played in more than 131 games in a season), so there would be cause for concern in the long-term for a now-29-year-old Quentin, but he would represent a pretty compelling option on the FA market after this season and being able to negotiate with him by acquiring him could cause the Indians to give up more than they’d usually be willing to give up for a two-month rental.

That all said (and delving into the Trade Market WAY more than I wanted to in mid-June), there’s a long way to go in this march and there’s a possibility that Johnny Damon has found his stroke once again or that Grady Sizemore’s body somehow stops betraying him and the Indians find themselves in the market for a starting pitcher instead of a RH bat for LF.  That’s what we saw occur last July and, while the results of that addition have been…um, underwhelming, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a similar sequence of events if the Indians find themselves at or near the top of the AL Central come mid-to-late-July.

Then again, just staying at or near the top of the AL Central into mid-to-late-June is what should be the focus now as the starting pitching needs to start carrying their weight on this team, as much as all of our eyes keep finding their way back to LF over and over again.