Approaching the Deadline on a Lazy Sunday

You’ll have to forgive me if this week’s edition of Lazy Sunday is both short and a little discombobulated. I started writing it earlier in the week, and then got a bit sidetracked when I was forced to spend all day Friday and most of Saturday in the hospital. Long story short, I woke up at 3am with horrible stomach pain and finally went to the ER at around 7am Friday morning. A quick ultrasound later, I come to find out that I have gall stones and my gall bladder has to come out, immediately. Immediately is a relative term in a hospital of course, but I suppose that it’s a miracle of modern medicine that about 12 hrs after arriving at the hospital, I was lying in a recovery bed sans gall bladder. So much of this week’s article will be written under the influence of perchocet as I lie in bed on the road to recovery. Please forgive both the brevity of the piece as well as any misspellings, but with the trade deadline fast-approaching, I wanted to get some thoughts out there for you all. So with that said, let’s kick off the first ever Lazy Sunday under the influence of drugs…

The first domino in the annual July trade deadline fell at the beginning of last week, when the Texas Rangers acquired starting pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for minor league 3B Mike Olt and a pair of young arms. The Indians, looking to shore up their starting rotation heading down the stretch, were reportedly interested in Garza as well. With few legit starters on the market though, it was a sellers’ market, and the Rangers were able to meet the steep price that the Cubs were asking for the righty. Garza is going to be a free agent following the 2013 season, and with the new collective bargaining rules, the team that loses Garza won’t even be eligible for draft pick compensation since he was traded mid-season. The lack of club control and the high cost in prospect currency combined to keep the Indians out of serious contention for Garza’s services, and with good reason. A very rough guess as to a comparable package from the Indians would have included Lonnie Chisenhall, Scott Barnes and T.J. House. That’s an awful steep price for 2 ½ months of Matt Garza.

Speaking of Chisenhall, his defensive struggles are overshadowing the fact that he’s been a pretty good hitter of late. In 15 games in the month of July, Chiz is hitting .269/.333/.462 with 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB and 5 strikeouts. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s put together a solid stretch of games since being recalled from AAA Columbus. Chisenhall is still just 24 years old, and if he can just figure out how to hit lefties at the ML level (.374 OPS against LHP in 36 plate appearances with Cleveland), he can be a very solid player at the hot corner for the Tribe.  

This of course brings us to the question of what the Indians are going to do here at the trade deadline. As of now, it appears that three options are on the table; buy a bullpen arm and a starter on what has become a sellers market, try to take advantage of the sellers market by moving players of their own, or simply doing nothing. The Padres have made relievers Huston Street and Luke Gregerson available, and Gregerson would look awfully good as a setup man in what has become a terrible Indians bullpen. But in my mind, buying is the least attractive option for the Indians this season. With the market shaping up like it is, the prospect currency it would take to add even one impact arm looks to outweigh the benefit. Detroit isn’t running away with the division, but they’re a talented club that looks primed to improve their overall winning % down the stretch, not collapse. So that leaves the team with the choice to sell or sit pat.

I received an e-mail from Pauly C. down at Del Boca Vista earlier this week pointing me in the direction of this piece in the Chicago Tribune. I’ll snip the most relevant section here:

The Sox are listening to proposals. They turned down a deal involving pitcher Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals third-highest rated prospect, for shortstop Alexei Ramirez, according to a scouting source.

Martinez, 21, is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 11 starts at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Martinez, who possesses a fastball in the high-90s mph range, has struck out 44 hitters in 52 innings.

Leaving the fact that the White Sox must be crazy not to take that deal, let’s put it in the context of what the Indians could offer the Cardinals. Yes, we’re back to the possibility that Asdrubal Cabrera could be dealt to St. Louis to strengthen the most vulnerable part of their roster. If the Cards were willing to offer Martinez for Ramirez, who hasn’t posted a OPS+ over 100 since his rookie season back in 2008, what would they be willing to offer for Asdrubal? Cabrera is coming off of back-to-back all-star seasons in 2011/12, and while not setting the world on fire this year, his .737 OPS in 2013 far outpaces Ramirez’s .664 figure. Going back to that e-mail from Pauly, would the Cardinals be willing to part with Martinez, Matt Adams (blocked at 1B) and another arm for Asdrubal and a lower-level prospect? It sure seems that way, although we of course don’t know for sure. If that deal is on the table, I think that Chris Antonetti and company would be crazy to let it pass by. Martinez is a top-50 prospect who could break in out of the bullpen this year and assume a role in the starting rotation next season. Adams is under club control, and could be a long-term solution to the DH/1B woes that have plagued the Indians for so long. It wouldn’t kill the Indians playoff hopes this year due to the presence of Mike Aviles, and would really go a long way towards strengthening next year’s team. If you’re still not convinced, humor me and read this scouting report on Martinez from the good folks at Baseball Prospectus:

Martinez has always drawn considerable praise for his exceptional fastball. He consistently sits in the 94-97 mph range with his four-seamer and has regularly touched 99 mph in the past. Even his sinking two-seamer has excellent velocity, sitting in the 92-93 mph range and touching 95 when he wants a little more. Martinez likes to attack with his fastball and shows the ability to move it around the zone when he doesn’t overthrow. To back up up his fastball, Martinez offers both a very good curveball and changeup. His curveball will occasionally work as a plus pitch with tight rotation and good depth.

As if that weren’t enough, Martinez’s changeup could be a second legitimate plus-plus offering. He has tremendous arm speed when throwing it, affording him excellent deception. Martinez routinely throws strikes with all three pitches and over the last two seasons has developed his ability to work outside the zone and make the “pitcher’s pitch.” If the Cardinals decide to keep Martinez in the bullpen long term, he could become an All-Star-level closer. But many scouts still believe Martinez has a future as a no. 2 starter in a championship rotation.

That of course all depends on the Cardinals putting the right offer on the table for Cabrera. If not, I think the Indians would be served to sit tight at this year’s deadline. Normally, I’d be strongly against this option, as I feel like teams should either go all-in or move everything not nailed down in an effort to improve next year. But when you look at this Joe Ponanski piece on the Royals offseason trade for James Shields, you can see how the desire to make a move, any move, can sometimes backfire. With Salazar, Bauer and Carrasco as rotation options next year, a healthy Vinnie Pestano reclaiming the 8^th inning and an intelligent offseason addition or two, the Indians are really built more for 2014 than 2013 anyhow. That’s pretty much the thesis of this ESPN Sweet Spot article, which closes with this paragraph:

With a core of Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Justin Masterson, Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, the Indians are close to contending. However, this probably isn't their year. So while it would be fun if they tried to make a splash at the deadline, the lack of available upgrades and the fact they are not quite as good as the Tigers suggests the will (and should) stand pat. 

And that article doesn’t even mention the Indians three young starters who could contribute next year.

Everyone who expected Scott Kazmir to be pitching effectively for the Indians through August, stand up and be recognized. I was bullish on Kazmir going into the season, but didn’t expect him to stick in the rotation for this long. I figured he’d either be injured and on the DL or replaced due to ineffectiveness. Instead, the 29-year old lefty seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on. He’s pitching his best baseball of the season of late, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in a start since June 15. In his 7 starts since then, Kazmir has gone 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA, 35 K and 12 BB in 45 innings pitched. Opposing batters are hitting just .148 against him, and he’s allowed only 2 HR. Kazmir’s emergence as a consistently reliable option helps the Indians front office, as they don’t have to make a panic move to acquire a starting pitcher in a difficult trade market. When the Astros are reportedly asking for not one, but two “top prospects” in return for Bud Norris, you know it is not exactly a buyer’s market. Kazmir might just be pricing himself out of an Indians uniform, as if he can stay healthy and effective he’s in line for a decent payday this offseason. That was pretty much unfathomable just a year ago, when he was pitching in the independent leagues.

It’s hard to believe that Danny Salazar’s electric debut was just over two weeks ago; it feels like an awful lot has happened since then. Since returning to AAA Columbus, Salazar has allowed a pair of earned runs in 7 IP, striking out 10(!) without walking a batter. He’s biding his time with the Clippers, waiting until injury or ineffectiveness necessitates a return trip up I-71 for the talented young righthander. But it doesn’t have to be that way. A more effective use for Salazar this season might be out of the Indians bullpen, especially with the recent struggles of the relief corps on the North Shore. Salazar could be a dominant, multi-inning force out of the pen, and even act as a “piggyback” for Ubaldo every 5^th day. The Big U has been somewhat effective of late, but he’s been a 5-and-fly guy who can’t get through a lineup the third time through the order. If Ubaldo can go five solid innings and turn it over to Salazar for three, the Indians could have a sort of two-headed monster at their disposal. Salazar’s already electric stuff would play up even further in shorter bursts, and it would allow the Indians to manage his innings coming of Tommy John surgery last year. It would get him valuable experience pitching in pressure situations against major league hitters, and allow the Indians to shore up what has become the weakest aspect of the club this year.

As we discussed going into the all-star break, Indians top prospect Francisco Lindor was promoted to AA Akron from high-A Carolina. Lindor has appeared in 11 games with the Aeros as of Friday, and has been nothing short of sensational. The switch-hitting shortstop is batting a robust .395/.531/.579 with a HR, one 3B, 2 2B and 6 RBI. He’s walked an impressive 10 times while striking out just once. He’s 5-7 in stolen base attempts, and has scored 9 runs from the top of the Aeros lineup. When you watch the youngest player in the Eastern League (turns 20 in November) tear through opposing pitching like that, it makes it hard to believe that his best tool is his defense. I don’t expect Lindor to sport a 1.110 OPS at the end of the season, but watching him dominate AA pitching is a sight to behold. I was lucky enough to see him twice last week when the Aeros took a road trip to play the Bowie Baysox, and there’s no doubt that he’s the best player on the field when he steps between the chalk. Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball America all rated Lindor as their #5 prospect in all of baseball when their mid-season rankings were released, and it’s easy to see why. Lindor is a special talent, a kid who could be an all-star shortstop for many, many years down the road. If the Indians do end up moving Asdrubal Cabrera, it will be because they have the talented Lindor waiting in the wings, remarkably ready to move up to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as soon as the 2014 season.

Lastly, I’d like to wish former Indians manager Eric Wedge best wishes and a speedy recovery from his recent health issues. In case you hadn’t heard, Wedge suffered what was described as a minor stroke earlier this week when the Indians were in Seattle to take on the Mariners. I don’t think the words “stroke” and “minor” should really even appear in the same sentence, as something like that is always serious. At age 45, Wedgie is way too young to have to worry about things like that, and hopefully the docs can figure out what’s wrong in a hurry so it doesn’t happen again. 

Approaching the All-Star Break on a Lazy Sunday

It’s been a while since we’ve shared a Lazy Sunday together. It’s been a busy summer, with a perfect storm of work and personal life conspiring to sap me of nearly all of my free time, so I’ve unfortunately had precious little chance to write. I hope you’ve missed this column as much as I’ve missed writing it, and if I had my way there would be 6,000+ words up here at least once a week. I still have interviews with several minor league players and coaches to write up as well, and you’ll hopefully be seeing those again on a regular basis very soon. I’m not one for excuses though, so let’s jump right into what you actually came here for on this Sunday morning; a look at our 2^nd place Indians leading up to the all-star break.

The most newsworthy item of the past week occurred early Thursday afternoon, when pitching prospect Danny Salazar turned his major league debut against the Blue Jays into a 6-inning coming out party. Salazar threw 5 no-hit innings to begin his major league career and wound up allowing just one run on two hits through six innings, walking one and striking out seven. Salazar nearly wound up with a hard-luck no-decision, but the offense came alive in the bottom of the sixth, plating a pair of runs en route to a 4-2 victory in the series finale against Toronto. I’ve had a front-row seat on the Danny Salazar bandwagon since he dominated for the Aeros down the stretch last season after his return from Tommy John surgery. While I can safely say I expected him to find success last week, I didn’t see that level of dominance coming.

Salazar was every bit as good as the numbers would indicate, if not better. Using the fantastic Brooks Baseball pitchf/x data, let’s go a little deeper inside Salazar’s gem. He threw 89 pitches in the game, and 64 of those pitches were strikes. All seven of his strikeouts were of the swinging variety. Salazar worked primarily off of his fastball, throwing 51 4-seamers (39 strikes). Of those 51 4-seam fastballs, a whopping 35 were at or above 94 MPH. His AVERAGE fastball velocity was 96.58 MPH. Velocity isn’t everything of course, but a fastball with that kind of giddyup both allows for greater freedom within the strike zone and does an excellent job setting up one’s offspeed pitches. When you look at this strike zone plot of Salazar’s outing, pay special attention to the yellow squares down and out of the zone. Those are swings and misses, and they’re on pitches that aren’t particularly close to being strikes. Hitters have to make their mind up pretty early when looking at a 96+ MPH fastball, and less time for pitch recognition and selection can result in hitters offering at some pretty bad pitches.

Interestingly, Salazar threw 26 changeups (19 strikes, 6 of which were swinging) and just 5 sliders. Coming into 2013, Salazar was seen as having two potential plus pitches in his fastball and slider. His changeup was a developing offering that he was going to have to improve upon in order to have a long-term future in a major league rotation. It appears that Salazar put a lot of work in on his changeup, possibly even at the expense of his slider, because the change has been getting a much higher grade this season than his slider. If he can regain the feel for his slider and keep his changeup diving down and out of the zone, than the Indians will really have something in the young righty. He was my #6 prospect in the organization coming into the season and outperformed even that lofty ranking, going 5-5 with a 3.08 ERA, 100 K and 23 BB in 76 innings between AA Akron and AAA Columbus this season. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in the organization, and if the Indians are going to make a run at a playoff spot this season, Salazar will likely be a part of it. He’s not going to pitch like he did on Thursday every time out, but he has the physical and mental game to succeed at the big league level right now.

If you’ll allow me a brief umpire tangent; the first hit (and only run) allowed by Salazar never should have occurred. Leading off the 6^th inning, Toronto backstop Josh Thole fell behind 0-2 after chasing a changeup down in the dirt. On pitch 3, Salazar came back with another change that fooled Thole, and it crossed the plate pretty much right down the middle, thigh high. It was called a ball. Again using the Brooks Baseball chart below, you’ll see what I’m talking about; pitch #3 is a green square, indicating that it was inexplicably called a ball by home plate umpire Tony Randazzo. As usually happens, Thole singled later in the at bat and eventually came around to score on Jose Bautista’s RBI double.

By no means am I saying that Randazzo was out to get the Indians, or Salazar in particular. It’s just an example of the myriad of issues that have plagued MLB umpires all season long. The strikezone shrinks when the count is 0-2, and expands when it’s 3-0. It drove me crazy as a player, and continues to drive me crazy as a fan. A gift 3-0 strike allowing a pitcher back into an at bat can completely change the dynamic of an inning, and a 0-2 gift to the hitter can result in the pitcher losing a no-hitter, shutout, and possibly the game. That’s the beauty of baseball; every pitch fits in to the greater story of the game, and none is less important than any other. Umpires consistently changing the strike zone based on the count makes for a frustrating game to play and watch. It cost Salazar and the Indians on Thursday, and could have meant the game if the offense didn’t pick things up in the bottom half of the 6^th. Rant over, and thanks for bearing with me there.

The calendar tells us that we’re pretty much halfway through the month of July, which means that the non-wavier trading deadline is less than three weeks away. The Indians look to be in a similar position as the one they found themselves in back in 2011; close enough to contend, but a team that is likely ultimately too flawed to go deep in the postseason even if they make it past the Tigers for the Central Division crown. We all know what happened in 2011 though, as GM Chris Antonetti pushed all of his chips into the center of the table in a deal for Colorado Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Antonetti is faced with a similar quandary here in 2013, as the starting rotation for the 2^nd place Tribe has been up and down as expected, and the bullpen has been surprisingly ineffective. We’re already hearing names like Matt Garza (who would be a ½ season rental) and Yovanni Gallardo (who has Cleveland on his no-trade list) getting thrown around as potentially helping to round out the inconsistent rotation. But ESPN’s Buster Olney threw out another interesting name in his (insider required) column on Friday; shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. While the Indians are far too close to 1^st place to wave the white flag, Cabrera remains an attractive candidate to move at or before the trading deadline. Olney reports that both the Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals have inquired about Cabrera, and you’d have to think that Antonetti would listen should either club make an attractive offer that includes a high-end, close to MLB ready pitching prospect. I’ll let Olney explain:

Sources say there has been more discussion about a possible swap that was talked about in the offseason: the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera to St. Louis. 

It’s unclear just how far advanced these talks are, whether it’s more conceptual or internal at the moment, and undoubtedly, it’s a deal that would be more easily done in the offseason, with more time. 

But it’s a situation worth watching, because it could be an in-season match that could make sense for both teams. For St. Louis, Cabrera would represent an upgrade at shortstop: He’s 27 years old and a switch-hitting, two-time All-Star with power and experience. Cabrera has a .725 OPS and has demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions, which is why the Yankees have asked about him repeatedly. He could play shortstop, yes, but also third base or second or even first, so if the Yankees needed to fill in for Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez or Robinson Cano -- depending on developments ranging from injury (Jeter and A-Rod) to PED suspension (A-Rod) to free-agent departure (Cano, perhaps), Cabrera could step in. Cabrera makes $6.5 million this year, and will earn $10 million next season, before becoming eligible for free agency. 

Cabrera would be replaced by Mike Aviles in the short term, and Francisco Lindor (more on him later) in the long-term. The Indians impressive organizational depth at shortstop (and lack of impact SP prospects) would allow for the deal to take place without the team taking a significant step back in terms of playoff contention for 2013-15. Cabrera has a pair of all-star selections to his credit, but we are all very familiar with his lack of 2^nd half production and tendency to…have priorities other than conditioning. He’s as good as gone after 2014 anyway, as there’s pretty much no chance the Indians pay him $10 million or more a year with a guy like Lindor waiting in the wings. It would be a trade that doesn’t follow the “all-in” Ubaldo deal in 2011, nor would it be raising the white flag on the 2013 season because of the ability for Mike Aviles to step in and play a serviceable shortstop on a daily basis until Lindor is ready. Juan Diaz would be recalled from Columbus to play Aviles’ utility infielder role, and that would be a step down in terms of production there. But if the Indians are offered a legitimate future front of the rotation starting pitcher in return for 1 ½ seasons of Asdrubal Cabrera, I can’t see turning that down because of a downgrade in your backup SS. I’m not advocating dumping Cabrera for 75 cents on the dollar, but if the prospect-rich Cardinals make the Indians an offer that contains pitcher Carlos Martinez plus another arm, I’m certainly considering it if I’m Chris Antonetti.

Talk of trading Asdrubal midway through the 2013 season makes you wonder whether or not the Indians front office did enough to improve the team this offseason. If the Indians aren’t buyers at the deadline, then Antonetti and company failed, right? Well, not necessarily. Daniel Rathman of Baseball Prospectus took a look inside the numbers for the 2013 Indians, and found that there has been considerable improvement from the 2012 squad:

The Tribe entered play on Thursday ranked fifth in the majors in runs scored and sixth in True Average, a considerable improvement from last year, when Cleveland placed 22nd and 18th, respectively, in those categories. The Indians’ fielding also has been markedly better this year than it was in 2012, enough to bump their park-adjusted defensive efficiency up from 24th to 12th in the league.

As we all expected, the free agent signings and trades did a great job shoring up the offense, allowing the Indians to jump into the top echelon in baseball in both runs scored and TAv. Nick Swisher hasn’t set the world on fire, but he’s still managed a 118 OPS+ in an injury-effected 1^st half. Mark Reynolds has been downright terrible of late, but he carried the offense in April when other guys in the lineup were struggling, and no matter what he does this season it will be more than Casey Kotchman contributed last year. Michael Bourn has been pretty much as advertised at the top of the lineup. And just as important as the offensive contributions, having Bourn, Stubbs, Aviles and Swisher in the field has allowed the Indians to work their way from near the bottom to the top half of the league defensively. Last year’s Indians were succeeding despite being outscored by their opponents, doing it more with smoke and mirrors than anything else. The epic collapse after the Verlander game was disappointing, but not completely shocking. This year, the Indians have outscored their opponents by 21 runs going into Saturday, a number more commensurate with their 49-44 record. This team doesn’t just have a better record, but they’re better on the field (if that makes sense).

But despite the improvements in the lineup and in the field, the pitching has been disappointing, both the starters and the bullpen. The Indians team ERA ranks 27^th in the league at 4.38, a number that has to come down if the club expects to contend for a playoff spot. The major move this offseason to address the pitching staff has proved ineffective, as Brett Myers has been injured and extremely homer-prone when he was on the mound. I’m just not sure the pitching staff as a whole is good enough for the Indians to win a playoff series, even if they do manage to make it past the Tigers. So a move to shore up the starting rotation for next season, even if it costs the Indians Asdrubal Cabrera, could set the Indians up for the 2014 season. If next year’s rotation options include Masterson, Kluber, McAllister, Salazar, Bauer, Carrasco and a high-level prospect or two obtained from a Cabrera trade, I feel pretty good about the 2014 Cleveland Indians and their chances for a deep playoff run.

Speaking of Lindor, get your DVR’s ready, because you’re going to have a chance to see the talented young shortstop on national TV this weekend when the MLB Futures Game is aired on Sunday (2pm, ESPN2). Lindor will be representing the Indians and his native Puerto Rico on the World Team for the 2^nd time, and for some Tribe fans it will be the first chance to see the #1 prospect in the organization in action. Lindor enters the game as a consensus top-10 prospect, as he’s the #4 player in Baseball Prospectus’ midseason rankings, and #5 in Baseball America’s list. Keith Law doesn’t release his midseason top prospects list until next week, but he lists Lindor as having the best hit tool in the Futures Game, and one of the best gloves. I had a chance to interview Lindor earlier this season, and came away extremely impressed with the 19-year old switch hitter. He’s an incredibly gifted fielder, a better hitter than he gets credit for (3^rd in the Carolina League in hitting) and a mature leader on and off the field. He’s hitting .306/.373/.410, has 20 stolen bases, and his glove is better than his bat or his legs. The .306 average is 3^rd in the Carolina League, trailing only teammate Joey Wendle and Red Sox prospect Garin Cecchini (who was promoted to AA a couple of weeks ago). The Indians announced that Lindor will be promoted to AA Akron following the Future’s Game, so Cleveland-based fans will have a chance to see him live and in person soon enough. Watching him on the field, it’s tough to remember that he’ll play the entire season as a19-year old. #LindorBC

While we’re talking prospects, I’d be remiss to not bring up the Indians most recent 1^st round draft pick, OF Clint Frazier. Frazier signed quickly and for slightly below slot, accepting a $3.5 million bonus when the Indians were allotted $3.787 million for the pick. He seemed genuinely eager to get the contract negotiations out of the way and get back out on the baseball diamond. He reported to the Indians Goodyear complex to play with the Arizona League Indians, and promptly hit a home run in his first professional at bat. Small sample size of course, but the 18-year old Frazier is hitting .327/.357/.571 with a HR, 3 triples, 3 doubles and 14 RBI in 13 AZL contests. Just for comparison’s sake, 19-year old D’Vone McClure, the Indians 4^th round pick in last year’s draft, is hitting just .197/.269/.262 in 15 games, and he came into this season with 24 AZL games under his belt. That’s not to pick on McClure, who is a talented player, but more to show that AZL success is far from assured from high draft picks. So while it’s a small sample from Frazier, it’s an encouraging sample, and I’d expect to see him in Mahoning Valley or even Lake County before the end of the 2013 season. He’ll be easy to spot on the diamond; just look for the kid who looks like former University of Wisconsin basketball player Mike Bruesewitz.

Finally, on a fun note, Scott Lewis over at The Score blog put together an oral history of the 1989 Cleveland Indians for your reading pleasure. No, not the 73-89 Indians that finished in 6^th place in the AL East, but the fictional 1989 Indians from the classic comedy Major League. Reading Charlie Donovan, Lou Brown and Harry Doyle (among others) “reminisce” about the Indians miracle run to the 1989 playoffs was a lot of fun for me, especially having seen the movie as many times as I have. Pretty much any kid growing up in Cleveland in the ‘90s has seen the movie at least once, and if you were anything like me and my friends, you’ve seen it close to 100 times. It’s a fun piece to read heading into the all-star break as we wonder if this year’s Indians have a similar run in them…

Francisco Lindor, B.C.

It was June 6, 2011, 67 years to the day after Generals Eisenhower and Bradley ordered the combined allied troops to begin storming the beaches of Normandy, France in what was the beginning of the end for Adolf Hitler’s “1000 year” Reich. Coincidence? Absolutely. Because all we’re talking about is the 2011 Rule 4 Amateur draft. I was sitting nervously on my couch when Bud Selig announced that the Indians were on the clock. The 2011 draft was universally held as one of the most talented in years, and the Indians had the #8 overall pick. It would be almost difficult to screw up a top-10 pick in a draft that loaded, but if ESPN’s Keith Law and other “experts” were to believed, the Indians were about to do just that. Most of the so-called “experts” had the Indians selecting a low-ceiling, high-floor collegiate arm like Taylor Jungmann or Jed Bradley. A safe, signable pick, but a completely uninspiring choice that would have been a waste of the #8 pick in the draft. I had recently published a couple of articles pining for the selection of prep shortstop Francisco Lindor if he was still on the board, or flamethrowing high schooler Archie Bradley if Lindor wasn’t around. Well, Bradley went 7^th overall to the Arizona Diamondbacks, leaving Lindor (and the gaggle of college arms) on the board for the Indians at #8. As the seconds ticked off the clock, I got that all-too familiar feeling in the pit of my stomach. The feeling that most Cleveland fans get when their team is on the clock; the feeling that something is about to go terribly wrong. But when the always-excitable Bud Selig read off the Indians’ selection, it was high school shortstop Francisco Lindor. I let out a yell of excitement, and got down to business writing a celebratory article about the Indians making what I hoped and believed was the best selection possible for the future of the franchise.

Lindor signed right at the deadline in 2011 for an overslot bonus of $2.9 million. He reported to short-season Mahoning Valley in time to play in 5 games, collecting 6 hits in 19 at bats with the Scrappers during his professional debut. It was a brief taste of professional baseball for the switch-hitting prodigy, but enough to get his feet wet. The Indians aggressively assigned the 18-year old to low-A Lake County to open the 2012 season, and Lindor responded by hitting a very respectable .257/.352/.355 with 6 HR, 42 RBI and 27 SB in 122 games for the Lake County Captains. The low-A Midwest League is a notoriously difficult environment for hitters, so for the young Lindor to put up that line while at the same time providing Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, you know the Indians had to be happy with their young prodigy. Lindor came into the 2013 season as the consensus top prospect in the organization, and a top-10 overall guy in all of baseball. The Indians had Lindor stick around in big-league camp during nearly all of spring training, getting him valuable experience in a major league clubhouse before assigning him to the high-A Carolina Mudcats for opening day. Like the Midwest League, the Carolina League is known to be friendlier to pitchers than hitters. But like in the Midwest League, Lindor is more than holding his own here in 2013. He’s appeared in 63 games for the Mudcats so far this season, and is hitting a solid .296/.371/.399 with a HR, 21 RBI, 4 triples and 15 stolen bases. Probably the most impressive stat for the 19-year old is the 28 walks to just 29 strikeouts that he’s accumulated this season. That kind of plate discipline for a 19-year old in the Carolina League is nearly unheard of. And when you consider that Lindor’s lofty prospect status is built primarily on his defense, not his offense, you begin to see why the Indians are so excited for their shortstop of the future.

I caught up with Lindor a couple of weeks ago when the Mudcats were visiting the Potomac Nationals here in Virginia. I got to watch him take infield before the game, an experience I can only describe as baseball pornography. Lindor took a couple dozen routine groundballs, then proceeded to take balls far to his left and right, ranging far up the middle and deep in the hole. Bored with these seemingly routine tasks, Lindor then started fielding balls between his legs and behind his back. He would flip the ball to 2^nd with his hands, glove, and I think I even saw him kick a ball over. It was a beautiful sight, and I stood there with Mudcats radio play-by-play announcer Darren Headrick, simply awestruck at the sight of Lindor fielding groundballs. When I expressed my feelings to Headrick, he simply chuckled, shook his head and said, “He does this every day. It’s incredible.”

Unsurprisingly, when I asked Lindor about his favorite thing on the baseball field, his answer centered on defense. “Turning double plays; that’s the most fun play that’s out there. Getting a groundball is always fun, but when you can help out your pitcher by getting two outs on one play, that’s awesome.” Lindor is a very good hitter, but he’s an exceptional defender, and when you’re watching him in the field whether it’s before or during the games, it’s clear that he enjoys his ability to be creative on the defensive side of the game.

In addition to being named to the Midwest League All-Star team in 2012, Lindor was one of the Indians two selections for the MLB Future’s Game during MLB All-Star weekend last year. I asked Lindor about the experience playing with potential future stars from around baseball. “It was an honor representing the Indians, representing Puerto Rico and representing my family,” said the young shortstop. It’s a virtual certainty that Lindor will again be one of the Indians representatives to the Futures Game in 2013, so if you haven’t had a chance to see him play, that game will be televised as part of All-Star weekend. Get your DVRs ready, because it’s an experience that you won’t want to miss.

As expected, Lindor had nothing but great things to say about Mudcats manager Dave Wallace. Wallace was the skipper for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2011 and then for the Lake County Captains in 2012, so he’s had the pleasure of managing the athletic young shortstop for his entire professional career. “I haven’t had any other manager; he’s awesome. He’s a great guy, keeps the dugout loose, has fun, respects the game and respects us and that’s what he asks out of us. To respect the game, respect him and respect each other and respect the clubhouse. He’s a great guy; humble, and I’ve been with him since day one. He’s awesome.” The Indians are lucky to have someone like Wallace managing a talent like Lindor, as he’s a perfect personality to get the most out of the talented shortstop and help speed his development towards the big leagues.

Talking to Lindor, I was incredibly impressed by the teenager’s maturity and confidence. There’s very little that Francisco Lindor cannot do on a baseball field, and he knows it. That’s not to suggest that Lindor is cocky or overconfident; far from it. But he’s appropriately confident for a player of his age and ability, and is already a leader in the clubhouse despite his relative inexperience. Part of that leadership ability comes from Lindor’s experience with the major league team this spring. I asked him what he learned from the Indians in Goodyear, and Lindor responded, “I had a blast; I got to know the big leaguers and they made it pretty comfortable for me, and I learned a lot from them. It’s just a game; those guys go about their business, making sure they take care of their job and be consistent every day. Taking every pitch the same way, the same approach in the field and spending every day trying to get better.” Consistency is a theme for Lindor; it’s obvious he has the talent to succeed at the highest level of the game; he just needs to add strength/size to his frame and be more consistent. He’s created a catchphrase for himself, “Lindor B.C.” As in “Lindor, Be Consistent.” Coming soon to a bumper sticker near you.

Along the same lines, when I asked Lindor if he was working on anything specific this season, he just said that “I’m working on everything, improving every aspect of my game. Every single thing I do, I want to get better at.” Confident, but not cocky, knowing that he has to improve but also well-aware that he has the talent to succeed at the highest level of the game someday.

Despite his age and relative inexperience, we could see Lindor on the shores of Lake Erie as early as midway through the 2014 season. With shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera becoming a free agent prior to the 2015 season, that timeline lines up perfectly for the Indians. If Lindor can get his feet wet at the big league level in 2014, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could become an everyday shortstop in The Show as a 21-year old the following season. He’s a potential Gold Glove defender who should more than hold his own with the bat, a potential four-tool player who should be above-average in everything except the power department. That’s an all-star package if he plays up to his potential, and Lindor seems prepared to work as hard as it takes to reach that lofty potential. 

Previewing the MLB Draft: Part Two

Draft Day is finally upon us, Indians fans. It’s time for the team to reap the harvest that was planted the day after the Justin Verlander game last year, when the club started the epic collapse that found them picking 5^th overall in the first round tonight. That collapse and the corresponding top-10 pick did allow the Indians to sign two marquee free agents and “only” lose their sandwich and 2^nd round picks as opposed to their 1^st round pick in this year’s draft, so I suppose we can use tonight as a silver lining for the horror we all endured watching Chief Wahoo’s Tribe tailspin towards the bottom of the American League standings last season.

In case you missed my more in-depth profile of the players that the Indians will be considering with the #5 pick tonight, you can find it here. Today, I’m going to sketch out for you how I think the top 1/3 of the draft is going to go, including the only pick we really care about, the Indians selection at #5. Here’s hoping for another Lindor or Sabathia and not another Beau Mills or Michael Aubrey.

       1. Houston Astros: Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma

The Astros strategy with the #1 pick last year was to draft a talented but signable player and use the savings later in the draft. After his positive test for Adderall, the uber-talented Jonathan Gray might just be that player. He’s a candidate for 1-1 based on his talent alone, and now that the Astros will have some leverage in negotiations, they could snag the draft’s best player at a discount. It’s a perfect world scenario for the hapless Astros and their fans. If Gray makes it known that he won’t sign at below slot for 1-1, look for the Astros to take UNC 3B Colin Moran

    

2. Chicago Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford

The safest pick in the draft, Appel doesn’t repeat last year’s slide down the 1^st round. Appel will be the 1^st player drafted in 2013 to make it to the majors, and could be a mainstay in the Cubbies rotation as soon as next season. Gray might have a slightly higher ceiling, but Appel has a much higher floor and is already close to a finished product. Cubs fans will be too drunk in the bleachers at Wrigley to notice, but Theo Epstein will make this pick with a smile on his face.

       3. Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego

Kris Bryant’s raw power unleashed in Coors Field? Sign me up to watch that show. Providing Bryant can make a couple of minor tweaks to his swing, he could hit 40 HR annually in the thin Denver air as soon as 2015.

      4. Minnesota Twins:  Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X High School (Texas)

This is pretty much the only player I’ve seen them on in mock drafts all spring. Naturally, that means they’ll probably take someone else, but I’m sticking with the concensus on this one. The old Twins probably would have taken Shipley here, but these aren’t your older brother’s Twins anymore. No longer do they prefer “safe” picks like Ohio State’s Alex Wimmer. Pitchability and changeups are relics of years gone by, and the Twins are focusing on radar gun readings and upside. Stewart and his high-90’s fastball fit that bill, so it’s easy to see him heading to the Twin Cities with the #4 pick here.

    

   5. Cleveland Indians: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High School (Georgia)

So here’s the pick we really care about. Scouts are torn on Frazier’s eventual ability to stick in CF. Some see him as a surefire CF down the road, and some see a shift to an outfield corner. His proponents see a classic gym rat; a guy who plays all-out, 100% on every play, who has enormous tools and will always get the most out of his talent. His detractors see a tweener, a guy who’s undersized for the rigors of a big league season and an eventual LF. Put me in the pro-Frazier camp. I see the next Grady Sizemore, hopefully this time without all of the injuries. He has the best bat speed in the draft, and that’s a talent that simply can’t be taught. He’s a tireless worker, a plus runner and has a plus arm. Even if he does have to shift to RF, he has the potential to be an impact player in the middle of a major league batting order. He’s not the “safe” pick here and he won’t be able to help the Indians in the near future, but Frazier has the highest superstar potential of anyone on my hypothetical board here at #5 overall. If Frazier is on the board and Gray/Appel/Bryant are all gone, I hope the Indians pull the trigger on the young Georgia outfielder.

If the top 4 picks shake out like I’ve predicted here, the Indians will also be considering Shipley and Moran in addition to Frazier.

       6. Miami Marlins-Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

Moran is an advance bat who will stick at 3B as a professional. Whether or not the skinflint Marlins want to pay enough to sign him is another story, but he’s the best player available in our scenario, so I’ve got him going to South Beach. But now that Jeffrey Loria has his taxpayer funded (empty) stadium, he’ll probably have his baseball people under a strict budget, and they might be the first team in history to pass on a 1^st round pick entirely because of the cost.

       7. Boston Red Sox-Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson High School (Georgia)

Meadows is a crosstown rival of Clint Frazier, and has a pretty high upside in his own right. He’s a potential monster in the middle of a lineup, and has the size and strength to hit 40 HR in The Show someday. Like Frazier, he’s still very raw and won’t be gracing Fenway Park anytime soon, but is a potential all-star if he does refine his approach and work his way up the ladder to the major leagues.

  

   8. Kansas City Royals-Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada

Royals fans would have to be thrilled with this scenario, as one of the top-3 college arms in the draft falls to them at #8 overall. Shipley is a converted SS, an excellent athlete who still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher. He’s already an impressive arm, working in consistently in the mid-90’s with his fastball and complimenting it with one of the best changeups in the draft. He has only scraped the surface of his talent on the mound, and could end up as a solid #2 starter when all is said and done. Kansas City needs pitching in the worst way, and Shipley would be both BPA and fill a need at #8 overall.

   9. Pittsburgh Pirates-Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood High School (Washington)

I’ve seen the Pirates on McGuire pretty much exclusively this spring. He’s an incredible catch and throw guy behind the plate, a guy who is getting an 80 grade with his arm as a high schooler. That’s nearly unheard of, and the fact that he’s popping sub-1.90 to 2^nd is incredible. He’s not nearly as advanced as a hitter, but the Pirates are hoping that will progress at the plate with more experience. This is an unprotected pick that the Pirates received when they were unable to sign Mark Appel last year, so they absolutely have to sign whoever they choose here. McGuire is both talented and signable, and that fits the bill for the Buccos here at #9.

      10. Toronto Blue Jays-Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle High School (Indiana)

Ball is the top player in the entire Midwest this year, a 6’6”  lefty who throws a fastball in the mid-90’s. He’s a great athlete and was a two-way star in high school, to the point where some teams are considering Ball as an outfielder. That kind of velocity from a lefty tends to stick on the mound though, and he’s a very Toronto type of player so I see them taking him as a pitcher here at #10. There are some mechanical inconsistencies in his delivery that need to get cleaned up, but the athletic Ball should be able to make those corrections under the tutelage of a professional pitching coach.

So that’s how I see the top 10 going tonight. I think the Indians will end up with Frazier, Moran or Shipley, and I’ll be pretty happy with any of those three. I think Frazier has the highest upside of those three, but he also has the most risk. Chris Antonetti and company are looking for the best player available in the first round, and they’re going to have to select an impact talent because the Indians won’t be picking again until the #79 slot (the 5^th pick in the 3^rd round). 

Previewing the MLB Draft: Part One

Well Tribe fans, it’s that time of year again. The MLB Rule 4 Draft is set to take place this Thursday evening, and your Cleveland Indians hold the 5th pick in the first round. Because of MLB’s asinine rules artificially tying draft picks to free agents, the Indians will not pick again until #79 overall, having forfeited their “competitive balance” sandwich pick as well as their 2nd round pick with the signings of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. But you didn’t come here for (another) rant on the Collective Bargaining Agreement; you came here to learn about the player the Indians could potentially end up with at #5 overall in the draft.

Much like the past two seasons, this will be part one of a two-part draft miniseries. Today, we’ll take a look at some of the options that the Indians will consider with their pick. Tomorrow, I’ll put up my mock draft of the first 10 picks in the draft. Because let’s be honest, very few of us care who Oakland selects with pick #24 in the first round, right? So without further delay, here are 11 players that the Indians might be thinking about with their first pick in the draft come Thursday night.

Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford 
Appel was a lot of peoples’ pick to go #1 overall in last year’s draft to the Astros. He was a consensus top-5 guy in last year’s class, but due to his agent (Scott Boras) and expected bonus demands, he slid to Pittsburgh at #8 overall. The Pirates took a pretty good run at signing him, offering him an over-slot bonus of $3.8 million, but ultimately couldn’t pay him enough to play in the Steel City. So here we are again with Appel a heavy favorite for the top pick, and the Houston Astros weighing the merits of drafting (and paying) him.

Appel has top of the rotation potential. He’s a big kid at 6’5” 215lbs, and leverages that frame to generate a fastball that sits comfortably between 93-97 and touches 99. He commands the pitch well, and generates good plane making the pitch especially difficult to handle down in the zone. He complements the heater with two plus secondary offerings in his slider and changeup. Both have a future-70 grade on them, and both can flash at that level already. The slider sits between 85-87 with impressive life and tilt, while the changeup is a very deceptive pitch that just fades down and away from righthanders.

He has a very smooth, clean, easily repeatable delivery that helps with his command and allows him to go deep into games. Combining that impressive arsenal with his size and strength, and you can see why Appel is considered to be the top talent in this year’s draft. The wildcard is his agent and bonus demands, much as they were back in 2012. If a team drafts Appel and doesn’t sign him, he’d have to go pitch in the independent leagues as he has no further college eligibility. That would seem to put the leverage on the side of the team selecting him. But if a team drafts a player in the top-10 rounds and he doesn’t sign, the team loses the bonus pool associated with that pick. So that gives Appel a little leverage after all. If it were any other team besides Houston selecting #1 overall, I’d say he was a sure thing to go 1-1.

Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma 
Like Appel, Gray is a big, strong RHP who makes his living off of his impressive fastball. The 6’4” 240lbs Sooner can touch triple digits on the radar gun, and was sitting comfortably between 94-97 MPH this spring. He compliments the fastball with a slider that already grades as a plus pitch, and should round out to a plus-plus offering. It looks almost exactly like his fastball coming out of his hand, showcasing very impressive late action and tilt. The best professional comp I can think of for the pitch is Randy Johnson; not saying Gray is at the Big Unit’s level yet of course, but the fastball/slider combo is similar to what has Johnson headed to the hall of fame. Gray was able to buzzsaw through most collegiate lineups with just his fastball/slider combo, so his changeup lags behind those two offerings. The change has good potential, but his command of the pitch isn’t where it needs to be to succeed as a professional. Repetitions and experience will help make the pitch more consistent, and there’s no reason why it couldn’t mature into a potential out pitch for Gray.

Gray’s delivery is smooth and consistent, but he does land a bit stiff on his front leg from time to time. It’s not a major red flag, but when he does it his control suffers, so it’s something to keep an eye on. He’s a good athlete and experience with a professional pitching coach should be able to handle the issue with little difficulty. He does a great job maintaining his stuff deep into games, and the coaching staff at Oklahoma has done a fine job protecting his talented right arm by limiting his pitch counts.

Gray threw a bit of a wrench in this process when he tested positive for a banned substance (Adderall) prior to the draft. Some think that means he will fall out of the top-3, and some think that now Houston is more likely to take Gray because the positive test means they can secure his immense talent at a discount at 1-1. His overall ceiling might even be higher than Appel’s, but he’s also less of a sure thing. He’s one of the top 3 talents in the draft, and could go anywhere from #1 overall to #6 as an absolute floor. I don’t see him getting past the Indians if he’s on the board at #5 though.

Trey Ball, LHP-New Castle High School (Indiana) 
The top prep player in the state of Indiana, Ball is one of the best lefthanded pitchers available in the draft. The tall, lanky southpaw can run his plus fastball up to 97 MPH, and sits comfortably in the low to mid 90’s. The fastball comes at hitters on a steep downward plane, and they tend to beat it into the ground when they do make contact. It’s a two-seamer with nice arm-side run, and has the potential to be a plus-plus pitch at the major league level. He compliments the fastball with a curveball that’s raw but promising and a changeup that flashes plus. Both secondary pitches are inconsistent at this stage of Ball’s development, but he has the potential to have three pitches that grade at plus or better.

Ball is a very good athlete, and some teams are even looking at him as a hitter in this draft. I don’t see that happening, as 6’6” lefties who throw in the high-90’s have a tendency to stick on the mound. His delivery is repeatable but has a little bit of herky-jerkyness to it, which helps him hide the ball well and create deception for the hitter. He weighs in at right around 180lbs, and there’s plenty of room on his frame to add strength and have his fastball velocity tick up another notch or two. His long arms and legs keep him slow to the plate, and he hasn’t shown off much of a slide step. He still needs to shore up his command and work on his consistency, but it’s an enticing package that’s likely to come off the board in the first 10 picks of the draft this year.

Kohl Stewart, RHP-St. Pius X High School (Texas) 
Stewart is from a football-rich area of Texas, and has a full scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M. A&M will have a decent QB under center for the next two years though, so Stewart might want to consider giving this pitching thing a try. The 6’3”, 190lbs righty sits between 92-94 with his fastball, and touches 97. The pitch has nice arm-side run, and is especially tough on righties. He has an impressive slider, and is developing both a curveball and changeup. The fastball and slider could be plus-plus pitches at the professional level, and both the curve and change should be at least average.

Stewart has some issues with his delivery that affect his command, but nothing serious that can’t be fixed with additional experience and a professional pitching coach. He’s an excellent athlete and should be able to make adjustments as needed. He’s not a finished product by any means, and there’s a lot of risk involved in an arm as raw as Stewart’s. But there’s also a lot of upside in there, as much as any pitcher in the draft. Someone is going to pull the trigger on Stewart in the top half of the draft in the hopes that his immense potential can someday headline the top of a major league rotation.

Ryne Stanek, RHP-Arkansas
Stanek is a 6’4”, 180lbs righty who was seen as a potential top-3 pick going into this season. He was coming off of a solid summer with Team USA, and the 20-year old was seen as one of the top starters in the collegiate ranks. He had a solid but not dominant 2013 season with the Razorbacks, and while he’s not seen as a top-3 pick anymore, he should go comfortably in the top-10.

Stanek’s fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range, and has nice arm-side run from his ¾ arm slot. He compliments the fastball with a slider, curve and changeup. The slider is a very horizontal pitch, running hard across the strike zone. It’s his best secondary offering, and one of the better sliders in the draft. His curveball is a hard, tight breaker that could develop into an above-average pitch. His changeup shows potential, but needs to be a more consistent pitch in order to be a reliable offering at the professional level. It’s a starter’s arsenal, and the four-pitch mix helps Stanek keep hitters off balance.

Stanek has a high leg kick and lands somewhat stiff on his front leg because he extends so much so early in his delivery. He has raised his arm slot a little since high school, from below ¾ to a more traditional ¾ slot, and it’s helped make his slider a more effective pitch. His command and control weren’t where they needed to be this spring, and it’s something that’s going to have to improve at the professional level. Still, his stuff is impressive, and should have him coming off the board in the top 10 picks this week.

Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego
Most evaluators feel that Bryant is the top bat in this year’s draft, and it’s easy to see why. Bryant has passed the 30 HR mark for this season, a total that dwarfs many team totals in college baseball this year. The plus-plus raw power is (as you’d expect) his best tool, as it’s a current 70 and should play at a 70-75 level by the time he reaches the upper levels of the minor leagues. His swing is long but simple, as he hits from a wide base with virtually no stride. He basically just uses a toe-tap for timing purposes, then unleashes his hands through the hitting zone. He has plus power to all fields, driving the ball the other way better than you’d expect for a power guy.

As you’d expect from a power guy, Bryant’s hit tool suffers due to his max effort approach. He can hit a fastball a mile, but struggles a little with advanced offspeed stuff. His swing, while simple, is still long, and there’s some swing and miss in him. But if he hits .250 with 100+ K and 35-40 HR in the middle of a major league batting order, the team that drafts him is still going to be quite happy with their selection.

Bryant is an average college third baseman, and many scouts see a move off the position in his future. He’s an average runner with a plus arm, so right field seems like the logical eventual destination. But if the 6’5” 215lbs Bryant fills out much more, he’s going to be limited to 1B in the pros. That move would lower his overall ceiling, but as of now that is a worst-case scenario for Bryant. There’s a small chance he can stick at the hot corner, but his lack of range at 3B will likely see him shift to RF.

At the start of my evaluation process, I was really hoping that Bryant would fall to the Indians at #5 overall. I don’t think he’ll get there, as his massive power projection just doesn’t come around every draft and one of the top four teams (likely Colorado) will snap him up. But I’ve also cooled on him as I’ve watched video and read more in-depth scouting reports, as there’s a chance that his bat speed and swing won’t be as effective against major league pitching. I am pretty sure the Indians would take him at #5 overall if he’s there, but I’m no longer 100% sure I’d want them to.

Colin Moran, 3B-UNC 
Moran is one of the more well-rounded players in the draft, and has long been rumored as a target for the Indians at #5 overall. In 248 at bats this year, the UNC product has walked 57 times while striking out just 21. He’s hitting .351/.478/.560 for the Tar Heels, with 13 HR and 85 RBI (both team-high totals). He has an advanced approach at the plate, doing a nice job with pitch recognition/selection. He has plus power and plus hitting ability, and has done it against some of the best competition that collegiate baseball has to offer.

Moran’s swing is the polar opposite of Bryant; he uses a narrow set up and a long stride to the baseball, which makes it a little more difficult to keep his weight back. He utilizes strong hip rotation to generate his power, but the swing has a lot of moving parts and is not as consistent as you’d like to see. His swing path can vary, as his hands don’t load from a consistent spot or level. Still, Moran makes it work, and he has the raw talent so that if a professional hitting coach wants to try and make a couple of minor tweaks, Moran should be able to make the necessary adjustments.

Defensively, Moran is better than Bryant at 3B but is not seen as a potential Gold Glover at the hot corner. He should be able to stay at 3B in the pros, but a move to 1B isn’t out of the question. He’s a below-average runner, so a move to the OF is unlikely. A month ago, I thought B.J. Surhoff’s nephew would be a likely candidate for the Indians at #5 overall. But there’s a rumor going around from some pretty good sources (none of them mine, of course) that the Astros are considering taking Moran at 1-1 and offering him slot for the #4 pick to save money for the later rounds. If that happens, it could push one of the “Big Three” (Appel, Gray and Bryant) closer to the Indians at #5. The Astros did something similar in 2012, selecting Carlos Correa at 1-1 in order to get both a talented player and cost savings for later in the draft. Could it happen in 2013 as well? We’ll see very soon, but if it does then Moran could go first overall in the 2013 draft.

Braden Shipley, RHP-Nevada 
Shipley is one of the top collegiate arms in this class, but is considered a tier below the top two of Appel and Gray. A converted shortstop, Shipley is actually fairly new to pitching. He became a full-time pitcher in 2012, so he probably has more room to grow than either Appel or Gray. Shipley’s fastball sits comfortably in the 92-95 MPH range, and has touched 99. He compliments the heat with a plus changeup, a pitch that usually requires a lot more experience on the mound to master. The pitch has excellent late fade away from righthanded hitters, and can be used to attack hitters on either side of the plate. His third pitch is a curveball that grades out as average, but should be able to improve with additional repetitions.

As you’d expect from a converted SS, Shipley is an athletic player who fields his position well. His athleticism helps him consistently repeat his delivery, and he has no major mechanical flaws. He can get a little out over himself at times due to his arm speed, but it’s not considered to be a major issue. As I said, Shipley is considered to be a little behind Appel and Gray at this stage of their respective careers. But he does have more room to grow than either of those experienced arms, and the Indians do love their shortstops-turned-pitchers (see Josh Tomlin and Austin Adams). He’ll need a little more work to polish off his tools on the mound, but could mature into a solid #2 starter down the road. I haven’t heard any of the top four teams on Shipley, but he’ll likely at least be in consideration for the Indians at #5 overall.

Clint Fraizer, OF-Loganville High School (Georgia) 
Fraizer is one of the top prep bats in this year’s draft class, possessing both plus raw power and raw hitting ability. Fraizer generates a ton of bat speed from his strong wrists and quick hands, leading to some incredible tape-measure HR in high school. His swing has some natural loft, which only helps to generate backspin and power. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that could leave him susceptible to advanced offspeed stuff, but destroys fastballs and should improve his pitch recognition/selection as he matures.

Defensively, Fraizer is a CF in high school but could end up shifting to RF as a professional. He’s an average to above-average runner with good instincts and a plus arm. He could be an average defender in CF or a plus defensive OF if he has to shift to right. There’s a little concern over his arm due to a bout with tendonitis, but he’s expected to make a full recovery and regain full velocity. His style of play would remind Indians fans of Grady Sizemore; all-out, 100% effort on every play. Scouts rave about his intangibles, and he’s a guy who leads by example every day that he’s on a baseball field.

The one drawback on Fraizer is his size. I’ve seen his height listed anywhere from 5’11” to 6’1”, but most who’ve seen him are pretty sure he’s shy of 6 feet. He’s a compact 190lbs, and while he’s a good athlete for his size, that frame doesn’t leave a lot of projection. Scouts and front office types usually take high school kids with the expectation that they will continue to grow and fill out, but that doesn’t seem like it will be the case with Fraizer.

Indians GM Chris Antonetti fueled speculation that the Indians are high on Fraizer when he flew down to Georgia to personally meet with the youngster at the end of May. He offers a tantalizing package of tools for a franchise that has been unable to draft and groom a home-grown OF talent since…what, Brian Giles? Fraizer is expected to be on the board at #5, but I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota snatching him up at #4 overall. If he’s there, he’ll be an enticing option for an Indians organization that remains light on potential impact OF.

Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson HS (Georgia) 
Meadows is a high-ceiling athlete who is still fairly raw as a baseball player, but offers an alluring package of tools and athleticism that scouting directors can dream on. He’s a two-sport athlete who is committed to Clemson, and could probably play baseball or football at the collegiate level. He currently stands a solid 6’3” 200lbs, but his big, athletic frame will allow him to add another 20-40lbs once he fills out. He is a centerfielder now, but will likely end up in an OF corner once he adds all of that weight.

Meadows features a short, simple swing from the left side of the plate and has above-average pull power. As he progresses and gets bigger, scouts expect that pull power to turn into plus power from CF-RF. He hits out of a wide base with an almost imperceptible stride, keeping his swing path short and to the baseball. The swing doesn’t generate a lot of loft though, which could limit his eventual power ceiling. He’s struggled with wood in limited exposure, but his mechanically sound swing has most talent evaluators confident of an above-average hit tool down the road.

One concern about Meadows is his fringe-average arm, which would likely limit him to LF defensively if he has to move off of CF. His scouting reports have me picturing a more muscular version of Michael Brantley. A nice player, no doubt, but not a guy you’d take at #5 overall in the draft. It’s up to the Indians (and everyone else) to decide if Meadows size and strength can generate some additional power with minor swing tweaks, or if his power projection falls to the “it is what it is” category. The difference between a 30/30 player in LF and a 10/30 player in LF is massive, and players like Meadows have a tendency to get scouting directors either promoted or fired. With the power projection as an unknown, I’d prefer the Indians stay away from him in the 1st round of this year’s draft.

Hunter Renfroe, OF-Mississippi State
Hunter Renfroe was born to play right field. He has prodigious power, a cannon for an arm, and above average speed. He also has a tendency to swing and miss a lot, but he’s improved enough on the strikeouts from his sophomore to junior year to convince scouts that the power will play at the next level. Renfroe hit just .252/.328/.374 with 51 K his sophomore year, but broke out to the tune of a .352/.440/.634 line with 15 HR, 58 RBI and just 39 strikeouts as a junior. His pitch selection improved greatly, walking 34 times after drawing 21 walks as a sophomore. His stock rose appropriately, from a fringe 1st rounder to a potential top-10 pick.

Renfroe will always have a better power tool than hit tool. He handles fastballs well, but struggles with quality breaking balls. He hits out of a wide open setup, and sometimes struggles to get closed in time to handle pitches on the outer half of the plate. It’s a small mechanical flaw that can likely be addressed by a professional hitting coach. He’s going to strike out at the professional level, but he’s also going to hit a lot of home runs, and those tend to balance out the ledger.

Renfroe will be limited to RF as a pro, but he’s going to be an above-average RF. He has above-average speed, takes good routes to the ball, and is a good athlete. He also has a plus arm which will be a weapon in RF. Renfroe will almost certainly be on the board for the Indians at #5, but that’s probably a little too high to pull the trigger on the slugging OF.