Saturday, March 08, 2014

Indians Prospect Countdown: #10-6

Just two days left in the countdown, as we've reached the top ten prospects in the Indians organization. We're going to look at a pair of toolsy young SS out of the Dominican Republic today, as well as a pair of infielders whose hit tool projects to play well above their defensive abilities. Rounding out today's piece is a starting pitcher who projects to be a solid middle of the rotation piece as soon as next season if the Indians need him to step up to the major league level.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
10. Dorssys Paulino, SS
DOB: 11/21/1994
Height/Weight: 6-0/175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent in 2011
2013 Stats: .246/.297/.349 with 5 HR and 46 RBI in 120 games for low-A Lake County

Scouting Report: Signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2011, Paulino was born after the opening of Jacobs Field, the last baseball strike and around the same year that the Cleveland Browns last won a playoff game. He put up some eye-popping numbers in the complex league back in 2012 before falling back to Earth last season in the difficult hitter’s environment of the Midwest League. Still, he’s an intriguing prospect with the bat, albeit one who might end up moving off of SS as his development continues.

Paulino will play the entire 2014 season as a 19-year old, and when you consider that he already has a year of experience at the full-season level, that’s pretty impressive. He has strong, quick hands that a present can generate at least average power, and as he adds some bulk to his frame he has the potential to have plus raw power. He hit just 5 HR last year, but added 28 doubles, some of which will turn into HR as he matures. His hit tool projects to be a 5 or 5+, although at present it doesn’t play to that level due to his struggles with pitch recognition/selection. Paulino feasts on fastballs, but struggles with quality offspeed stuff. He has trouble laying off of sliders down and out of the zone, a somewhat common issue for young players coming out of the Dominican Republic. He’s very aggressive at the plate, and Midwest league pitchers were able to take advantage of that aggression last year as Paulino struck out 91 times against just 30 walks.

Defensively, Paulino struggled at SS last season. He made 39 errors in 116 games at the position, and his range can best be described as below-average. He just isn’t an instinctual shortstop the same way Francisco Lindor is, and lacks the quickness and powerful arm of a guy like Ronny Rodriguez. He’s likely destined for a move to 3B or 2B, but even if he has to move off of SS the bat could still play.

Paulino has a chance to play every day as the Carolina Mudcats SS next season, but would probably be served best by repeating the low-A Midwest League, at least for part of the year. He’s still just 19-years old, so starting out in Lake County wouldn’t be seen as a step backwards for the young Dominican infielder. The tools are all there for an above-average hitter at the major league level, it’s just going to be up to Paulino to refine them and improve his pitch selection in order to move up through the Indians system. With a solid season at the plate, Paulino could be right back near the top of the Indians prospect rankings at this time next season.

Glass half-full: He sticks at shortstop, refines his approach and the bat proves to be special
Glass half-empty: He never plays above AA

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
9. Joe Wendle, 2B
DOB: 4/26/1990
Height/Weight: 5-11/190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Acquired: 6th round pick in the 2012 MLB draft
2013 Stats: .295/.372/.513 with 16 HR and 64 RBI in 107 games for high-A Carolina

Scouting Report: Selected in the 6th round out of Division II West Chester University of Pennsylvania, Wendle has done nothing but hit since his professional debut with the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2012. He was selected as more of a signability pick than anything, but has opened eyes in and out of the organization with his hitting ability as a professional. He posted an .844 OPS in 61 games with the Scrappers that year, and after skipping low-A Lake County, improved to an .885 OPS last year in the Carolina League. He finished 2nd in the Carolina League in OPS, and tied for 4th in the league with his 16 HR.

Wendle’s prospect standing starts and ends with his hit tool. He’s a career .307/.373/.497 hitter in 168 minor league games, with 20 HR and 59 BB. He’s a legit 6 or 6+ hitter, with average power that will show up more than it should because his hit tool will allow it to play to the maximum level possible. He has a solid approach at the plate, makes adjustments from at bat to at bad, and in general just does everything right at the plate. Now, he was 23 in the Carolina League last year, which is a little old for the level, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does for AA Akron this season against more advanced pitching (specifically offspeed stuff). But it’s awfully difficult to find any holes in his offensive game so far, to the point where Wendle was named the organization’s minor league hitter of the year in 2013.

Defensively, Wendle is limited to 2B, and he’ll likely never be more than average at the position. His arm is adequate at best, and his actions can be a little stiff, particularly going to his right. He has decent range to his left and is more effective throwing when he’s already moving towards his target. He’s a below-average runner, but his speed plays up a little due to his baseball instincts. Wendle’s value will be determined by his bat, not his glove or his legs.

Caught in the massive logjam that the Indians have up the middle, Wendle hasn’t played above high-A ball yet in his career. That will change in 2014, when he will get an opportunity at Akron or possibly even Columbus. He reminds me a little bit of a (non-drunk) Carlos Baerga. No above average tool other than his bat, nothing incredibly sexy about his profile, but a guy who will just go out and spray line drives all over the ballpark on a consistent basis. If Wendle can have a peak similar to Baerga’s (3 All-Star teams, 200 hits twice, 120 OPS+ from ’92-’95), I think the Indians will be awfully happy with their investment.

Glass half-full: An everyday 2B with some pop
Glass half-empty: A utility infielder with some pop off the bench

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
8. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
DOB: 4/17/1992
Height/Weight: 6-0/170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: International free agent signed in 2010
2013 Stats: .265/.291/.376 with 5 HR and 52 RBI

Scouting Report: Rodriguez continued his steady climb up the organizational ladder in 2013, playing the entire season in AA Akron as a 21-year old after playing the previous two years in Lake County and Carolina. Statistically, 2013 was Rodriguez’s worst season as a pro, posting a sub-.700 OPS and failing to crack double-digit HR totals for the first time since signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. He was again plagued by pitch recognition and selection issues, striking out 76 times against just 16 walks in 498 plate appearances.

At the plate, Rodriguez flashes a tantalizing array of tools that make him an easy guy to dream on. He has plus power to the pull side, as evidenced by his 19 HR in the Carolina League in 2012. He can sometimes get a little too pull happy though, and advanced pitchers use this to attack him with breaking balls down and out of the zone. He’s been making a concerted effort to stay back on the ball and use all fields, but is still susceptible to good sliders thrown low and away. He has very strong hands, quick wrists and plus bat speed. Watching the relatively small and skinny Rodriguez power balls over the fence in batting practice is an impressive sight, but it’s unclear at this point whether that power will ever materialize in game situations.

Defensively, Rodriguez is a very good athlete with a strong arm at SS. Some scouts see a move to 2B in the future, but I believe that Rodriguez can stick at SS long-term. He has improved greatly at the position in his time stateside and his range at SS is adequate, if not elite. His strong arm is a weapon, and he can make the athletic jump-throw from the hole at SS with relative ease. His hands are soft and his actions are clean, and when I look at him I see an average defensive SS at the next level. He made 16 errors in 71 games at SS in 2013, down from 28 errors in 80 games in 2012. He’s clearly improving at making the routine play in addition to the spectacular ones. He has decent speed and is an average runner, stealing 12 bases last season while being caught just three times.

Rodriguez is one of my favorite players in the organization, a guy who really enjoys playing the game of baseball. He’s worked hard to refine his tools and get to where he is today, and will continue to do so in his quest to reach the major leagues. The upcoming season will be huge for Rodriguez, as he’ll likely repeat AA with Francisco Lindor ticketed for AAA Columbus, and will be playing at a level appropriate for his age for the first time in his career. It’s possible his pitch recognition/selection is a fatal flaw in his game and he’ll never be able to make it to the show. It’s also possible he refines his approach and ends up as a 1st division SS at the major league level. Either way, 2014 will be a very good indicator as to which side of the coin Rodriguez’s future lies. The Indians have a plethora of talented middle infield prospects, so it’s possible that if Rodriguez does play well, he could finish out 2014 with another organization in a July deal.

Glass half-full: A 1st division SS with some pop
Glass half-empty: Approach issues doom him to top out in AAA

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
7. Jose Ramirez, 2B
DOB: 9/17/1992
Height/Weight: 5-9/165 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Switch/Right
Acquired: International Free Agent signing in 2009
2013 Stats: .272/.325/.349 with 3 HR, 38 RBI and 38 SB in 113 games for AA Akron; .333/.429/.500 in 15 games (12 AB) with the Indians

Scouting Report: Ramirez battled an ankle injury and a logjam at the middle infield positions in 2013, but still managed to impress enough to earn a September call-up to Cleveland when rosters expanded last year. He was used primarily as a pinch runner with the Indians, but did rip a triple off of White Sox flamethrower Addison Reed in a late-season victory over the pale hose. He had a solid season with AA Akron, and his brief and unexpected showing at the major league level offered an enticing glimpse of what the future holds for the 21-year old infielder.

Ramirez projects a 6 hit tool from both sides of the plate. He does an excellent job of putting the bat on the ball, striking out just 84 times in over 1000 minor league plate appearances. He makes loud contact from gap-to-gap, but does not project to have very much over the fence power. He hit just 3 HR for AA Akron last year, and is unlikely to reach even double-digit HR at the major league level at his peak. Still, he’ll rack up plenty of doubles and triples given the opportunity, as hitting from both sides of the plate combined with his plus speed and advanced hit tool should help play up his overall profile at the plate. He has the potential to hit in the .280-.300 range with a solid OBP and high stolen base totals if he gets an everyday opportunity at the major league level.

Defensively, Ramirez fits best at 2B. He’s played some 3B and SS, but his arm is below-average and fits best on the right side of the infield. He has decent range and soft hands, and his footwork and actions around 2B improved greatly last season. He can play other infield positions in a utility role, but you shouldn’t expect him to be a team’s primary option on the left side of the infield for a full season.

His defensive limitations downplay his overall prospect standing, and on a team like the Indians where 2B is set for the foreseeable future, it really brings into question his ultimate role in Cleveland. Ramirez could play the Mike Aviles role for the club as soon as this year, but it makes more sense to keep him in the minors and increase his value to ultimately use him as a trade chip. Ramirez held his own in AA as a 20-year old having skipped high-A altogether, and he’ll likely be ticketed for AAA Columbus out of spring training.

Glass half-full: A 2nd division, everyday 2B
Glass half-empty: A solid utility INF with speed off the bench

Photo Credit: Lianna Holub
6. Cody Anderson, SP
DOB: 9/14/1990
Height/Weight: 6-4/220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 14th round pick in the 2011 draft
2013 Stats: 9-4, 2.65 ERA with 122 K and 40 BB in 136 IP between high-A Carolina and AA Akron

Scouting Report: A 14th round pick in the 2011 draft, Anderson is a big, durable righty who has “innings-eating #3” written all over him. He pitched well in 2012, going 4-7 with a 3.20 ERA for low-A Lake County, but really put himself on the prospect map with a sub-3.00 ERA in the Carolina League last year. He led the league with a 2.34 ERA in 123 1/3 IP, making the all-star team and being named Carolina League Pitcher of the Year in the process. It was a breakout season for the starter out of Feather River College, and if he can follow it up with a similar performance in Akron in 2014, he’ll find himself on the doorstep of a big league debut next season.

Anderson works primarily off of his fastball, a mid-90’s offering with excellent sink and some arm-side run. When he’s locating the pitch well, he induces a lot of soft contact, keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark (just 6 HR allowed for Carolina last year). He also throws a slider, curveball and mixes in an occasional changeup. The slider is by far his most advanced secondary offering, with sharp, late life. It’s his strikeout pitch, and one that he frequently goes to when he gets up in the count. His curveball shows promise but still needs work. It can be a very loopy pitch that is easy for hitters to decipher out of his hand. The changeup is a show pitch that the Indians are trying to get him to develop so he has an additional weapon to attack lefthanded hitters. Improving the curveball and developing/refining the changeup will help determine Anderson’s timetable and eventual ceiling. If he can’t develop a reliable third pitch, he’s not going to be effective deep into games at the higher levels.

Anderson’s calling card is his control, as he posted an outstanding 3.61 SO/BB ratio for Carolina. At one point during the season, Anderson went an impressive 26 1/3 innings without issuing a free pass. He’s probably never going to be a big strikeout guy, but as long as he keeps his fastball down he can pitch to contact well enough to be a solid middle of the rotation arm. If his curveball or changeup can jump a couple of grades, that overall projection could improve. Still, if he ends up as an innings-eating #3 starter in the majors, that’s a pretty good return for a 14th round draft pick. I think the Indians were able to get Anderson relatively late due to his relief role in college. Give the org's scouts a lot of credit for seeing past the role and being able to project him as a starter in the pros. 

Anderson should begin the 2014 season as an Akron RubberDuck, and could easily finish the year in the Columbus rotation. He’s setting himself up for a major league look as soon as 2015, which would be just 4 years after he was selected in the draft.  

Glass half-full: An innings-eating #3
Glass half-empty: An innings-eating #4/5


Friday, March 07, 2014

Indians Prospect Countdown: #15-11

We're closing in on the top ten prospect in the Indians organization. Entering the top 15, we're looking at a power-hitting 1B who had a big winter campaign, a pitcher-turned-OF who made major strides in 2013, a college reliever who is going to get a chance to start as a professional, a power relief arm who could be in Cleveland this year and an infielder-turned-catcher who is among the hardest working players in all of minor league baseball.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
15. Jesus Aguilar, 1B
DOB: 6/30/1990
Height/Weight: 6-3/250 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: International free agent signing in 2007
2013 Stats: .275/.349/.427 with 16 HR and 105 RBI in 130 games with AA Akron

Scouting Report: After a decent season for AA Akron (.776 OPS), Aguilar went down to Venezuela for winter ball and set the league on fire, popping more HR (18) in 58 games for Caracas than he did in 130 games with Akron. He was 2nd in the entire Venezuelan League in HR, and his 1.000 OPS was good for 3rd. The Venezuelan Winter League is not particularly known for its pitching, but 18 HR is 18 HR.

Aguilar has as much raw power of anyone in the Indians minor league system. He puts on a show in batting practice, frequently launching balls out of the stadium. He can turn around anyone’s fastball, as evidenced by his performance against Orioles uber-prospect Dylan Bundy in 2012. Aguilar collected three hits against Bundy (including in the Futures Game and in the Eastern League playoffs), all off of his 97+ MPH fastball. As impressive as his power is though, it will likely never play up to its potential in game situations. Aguilar’s hit tool is merely average, and he’s still very susceptible to breaking balls down and out of the zone. He struck out 107 times in 2013, marking the 3rd consecutive season where he’s passed the century mark in K’s at the dish.

Defensively, Aguilar has worked very hard to get to fringe-average. He’s a big guy, and his mobility is always going to be below average. He has soft hands and does a nice job digging throws in the dirt at 1B. During Spring Training, he’s frequently out at the fields early with members of the Indians coaching staff working on his footwork and fielding at 1B. I saw Travis Fryman hit Aguilar about 200 grounders before one practice last year. It’s not that Aguilar is disinterested or lazy in the field, it’s just that the raw tools aren’t there for him to be an above-average 1B.

Entering his age-24 season, Aguilar is getting close to being a finished product. His pitch recognition/selection hasn’t evolved to where I’d hoped it would, and that will limit his power potential. He’s got a chance to be a 2nd-division 1B, but that’s pretty much his ceiling at this point. Aguilar is ready to be the everyday 1B for AAA Columbus, and will be on call should an injury create an opening at the big league level in 2014. He should post some pretty good power numbers in the friendly confines of Huntington Park in Columbus, but take those numbers with a grain of salt. He’s a very good mistake hitter, but is still overmatched when faced with high-quality breaking balls.

Glass half-full: A 2nd-division 1B with some pop
Glass half-empty: A DH/1B type with some pop off the bench

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
14. Carlos Moncrief, OF
DOB: 11/3/1988
Height/Weight: 6-0/220lbs
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Acquired: 14th round pick in the 2008 MLB draft
2013 Stats: .284/.354/.470 with 17 HR and 75 RBI in 129 games with AA Akron

Scouting Report: Moncrief got a little bit of a late start as an OF prospect. He was drafted as a starting pitcher, and spent two season on the mound before making the transition to the OF in 2010. He has an intriguing power/speed combination, as he’s averaged 17 HR and 16 SB over the past three seasons while working his way up the Indians minor league ladder. He’s made clear strides in his approach and pitch selection along the way, going from 158 K in 2011 to 126 K in 2012 to just 98 K last season with AA Akron. His batting average has increased every year as well, from .233 to .249 to .284, and as you’d expect, his OPS has been trending upwards as well (.768/.804/.824). He was probably the most improved player in the Indians organization last year, and is on his way towards a major league debut as early as 2014.

Moncrief has above-average pop from the left side of the plate, projecting to hit 20+ HR in a full season’s worth of AB. He has good bat speed, and really made significant strides in his pitch recognition/selection last year. Moncrief posted or equaled personal bests in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, 3B, 2B, H, R and strikeouts last season. That’s an extremely encouraging developmental trend, as most young hitters start to struggle when they reach the more advance pitching of AA, but Moncrief broke out. Going into last year, I thought Moncrief’s hit tool would prevent his raw power from showing up in game situations. He proved me wrong in a big way, showing an ability to stay back on the baseball and use all fields in a way that I hadn’t seen from him before. It was an extremely impressive season, even if he was a little old for the level (owing to his two wasted seasons on the mound). He tallied 50 XBH in fewer than 500 AB last year, showcasing both his raw power and hitting ability.

As you’d expect from a converted pitcher, Moncrief has an absolute cannon in RF. He recorded 16 OF assists last year, as Eastern League coaches and baserunners tested him far more often than they should’ve. It’s a 7 arm that is both strong and accurate, and it’s a valuable weapon to have lurking in RF. With Moncrief in RF and Tyler Naquin in CF for Akron at the end of last season, the Aeros could boast two of the top arms in all of minor league baseball playing side by side. He’s also an above-average runner, tallying 15 or more SB in each of the last three seasons. The arm and mobility make him an ideal RF, and his bat should be able to play there.

After spending all of 2013 with AA Akron, Moncrief is now ready to contribute at the major league level as early as this season. The needs of the big club will dictate his timetable more than anything else at this point, but if Moncrief can continue his trend of improving his numbers across the board in every season, he’s going to force his way to Cleveland sooner or later. He jumped higher on this list than anyone else in the organization from 2013 to 2014 (33 last year, 14 this year) and has gone from intriguing skill set to a legitimate option at the major league level.

Glass half-full: A 20/20 RF at the major league level
Glass half-empty: A very useful 4th OF

Photo Credit: Lianna Holub
13. Dace Kime, SP
DOB: 3/6/1992
Height/Weight: 6-4/200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 3rd round pick in the 2013 MLB draft
2013 Stats: 0-2, 2.92 ERA with 26 K and 16 BB in 24 2/3 IP for short-season Mahoning Valley

Scouting Report: Kime was born and raised in Defiance, Ohio, and attended the University of Louisville where he pitched primarily out of the bullpen. The Indians believe he can be a starter in the professional ranks, and he pitched exclusively in the rotation with the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2013. He put up solid numbers in his 9 starts in the NYPL, striking out more than a batter per inning and putting up a sub-3.00 ERA. He did walk 16, showing inconsistent command and struggling a little to repeat his delivery in that small sample.

Kime’s fastball sits in the low-90’s and can touch 95. He delivers it from a high ¾ arm slot that gives it some arm-side run and sink. Fastball location is going to be extremely important for Kime. If he can spot his fastball and keep it down in the zone, he’ll be successful. When he struggled last year, it was because his fastball location was inconsistent. He has two secondary offerings, a curveball and a changeup. The curve flashes plus, a big, bending pitch with strong 11-5 action. It should be at least an above-average pitch at the major league level. The changeup is intriguing, as it can be a very good pitch but sometimes stays flat and hittable. Refining and improving the changeup will be big for Kime, but scouts feel like it’s a pitch that he’ll have in his arsenal moving forward.

Kime doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation arm, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have value moving forward. He has the potential for three above-average pitches, and while that doesn’t make him the sexiest prospect in the system, it gives him an awfully good chance of a future in a major league rotation. He projects as a good #4 or a low #3 right now, but if any of those pitches tick upwards to plus, he can easily be a #3 in a good rotation. He’s a big, strong kid with a starter’s body and arsenal who should open up the 2013 season in the Carolina Mudcats rotation.

Glass half-full: A #3 in a playoff-level rotation
Glass half-empty: A #4 in an average rotation

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
12. Austin Adams, RP
DOB: 8/19/1986
Height/Weight: 5-11/190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 5th round pick in the 2009 MLB Draft
2013 Stats: 3-2, 4 saves, 2.62 ERA with 76 K and 29 BB in 55 IP for AA Akron

Scouting Report: Austin Adams was a top-5 prospect in the organization heading into the 2012 season. He was a starting pitcher at the time, but injured his shoulder and went down with season-ending surgery to correct the issue. He didn’t appear in a single game in 2012, and when he returned in the spring of 2013, it was out of the bullpen. Adams pitched exclusively out of the ‘pen last year, recording 4 saves and posting a 3-2 record. It was a successful bounceback season for Adams, as shoulder injuries are more difficult to recover from than elbow injuries, and it was unclear as to whether Adams would have similar stuff compared to his pre-injury repertoire.

Prior to the shoulder troubles, Adams was able to touch triple-digits with his fastball. He wasn’t able to get it up quite that high in 2013, but was still able to touch 98 several times when I saw him last August. He compliments the plus fastball with a very good slider that flashes plus, as well as a curveball and a changeup. The slider has tight, sharp break with excellent tilt. The curveball is a weapon that Adams can use to change the eye level on hitters, and the change is a nice 4th offering to keep hitters honest. The tendency for hitters is to sit on Adams heat, and the change can really make them look silly when he throws it in a 2-0, 3-1 or other count when hitters are guessing fastball. Adams pitches to both sides of the plate, and loves to come inside on batters to make them uncomfortable in the box.

Adams has closer’s stuff, and now that he’s been fully transitioned from a starter to a reliever, he should move quickly through the system. A former shortstop at Faulkner College, Adams is an excellent athlete who does a nice job repeating his delivery. When he’s throwing strikes, Adams is successful. He posted the highest BB/9IP ratio of his career last year (4.7), but that can be expected from a guy coming off of major shoulder surgery and a full year layoff from pitching. There were only two outings last year where he allowed an earned run without walking at least one batter. His ability to miss bats (12.4 K/9IP last year) will help him overcome a higher than normal walk rate regardless, but I think that walk rate is going to come down in 2014. He’s close to being a finished product, and could easily pitch in Cleveland this season based on the needs of the big league club. Relievers who throw 97+ generally find a way to contribute to a major league ballclub, and I don’t expect Adams to be an exception to that rule. He’s the top true reliever in Indians minor league system right now, and a potential closer down the road if the need arises at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Glass half-full: A 9th inning arm in a major league bullpen
Glass half-empty: A 7th inning arm in a major league bullpen


Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
11. Tony Wolters, C
DOB: 6/9/1992
Height/Weight: 5-10/177 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Acquired: 3rd round pick in the 2010 MLB draft
2013 Stats: .277/.369/.353 with 3 HR and 33 RBI in 80 games for high-A Carolina

Scouting Report: Last year at this time, Wolters was one of several impressive middle infield prospects coming through the Indians system. He was coming off of a solid season with high-A Carolina, and figured to start the 2013 season as the everyday 2B in Akron. But at the end of March, as camp was breaking, the Indians made a surprise announcement; Wolters would be switching positions. Moving forward, Tony Wolters would be a catcher. The move took everyone off-guard, as Wolters had caught only sporadically in high school and was seen as a top-10 prospect in the organization playing in the middle infield. Moves like that are generally made out of desperation, and the Indians were hardly desperate with Wolters in 2013. In this case, the move was made because the Indians genuinely think that Wolters can be an above-average backstop, and his offensive profile plays even better behind the plate than it does at 2B or SS. Known throughout his career as an extremely hard worker, Wolters threw himself into learning the position in extended spring training before joining the Carolina Mudcats for a 2nd season. His offensive numbers in 2013 were very similar to 2012’s, but considering he was learning not only a new position but the most difficult position on the diamond, I’d consider it a successful season.

At the plate, Wolters is a patient hitter with an advanced approach from the left side. He has a smooth, level swing that offers excellent plate coverage and sprays line drives all over the field. Wolters took a huge step forward in his approach last season, walking 41 times and striking out 58 in 340 plate appearances after walking just 36 times and recording 104 strikeouts in 537 PA’s in 2012. That’s a 10% walk rate, up from 6% the year before. Wolters did see his power numbers dip slightly, slugging just .353, but I expect that to be a one-year aberration rather than a trend. It’s an enticing profile as a catcher, and if Wolters can provide even adequate defense at the position, he has a chance to catch in the big leagues.

Defensively, Wolters is still a work in progress. But he’s further along after one season at the position that I thought possible. Lucky for Wolters (and the Indians), the Carolina Mudcats manager last year was David Wallace. Wallace was an outstanding defensive catcher in his playing days, and is the ideal guy to help mold a young backstop into a solid receiver and defender. Wolters made some dramatic strides in his defensive game last year, going from a 2B who was playing catcher to an actual catcher by the end of the season. His soft hands help his receiving, and his athleticism really has him moving well behind the plate. He allowed just 6 passed balls in 58 games behind the plate with Carolina, an amazing number for a new catcher on the receiving end of high-A pitching. Teams clearly tried to run on Wolters, as he threw out 25 of 90 attempted basestealers. That 28% ratio is respectable, and it will likely improve as Wolters improves his footwork and cleans up his throwing actions behind the plate. He has all the tools to be an above-average defensive catcher, he just needs time and reps to put it all together on the field.

Wolters is one of the hardest working players in the Indians organization, which is one reason they thought the move to catcher would stick. He plays with a high baseball IQ, and will always get the most out of his tools. He’s a lot of fun to watch play, and is one of my favorite players in the system. None of his tools grade out as plus, but none are significantly below-average, either. Wolters will likely move up to AA Akron along with manager David Wallace, so the two of them will be able to work on developing Wolters as a catcher for at least one more season. He’s got a difficult road to the majors as a converted catcher, but if anyone can make it happen, Tony Wolters can.

Glass half-full: An offense-oriented 2nd division starting catcher
Glass half-empty: The transition behind the plate doesn’t take and Wolters becomes a super-utility player


Thursday, March 06, 2014

Indians Prospect Countdown: #20-16

We're halfway home in our little countdown, as we've reached the top-20 prospects in the Indians organization. We're going to look at another bonus-baby pitcher who was drafted straight out of high school, an outfielder who is short on experience but long on upside, a southpaw who has a change to make an impact in the rotation this year, a potential 2014 bullpen piece and a catcher who spurned his home state of Michigan to commit to Ohio State before agreeing to start his professional career with the Indians. 

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
20. Mitch Brown, SP
DOB: 4/13/1994
Height/Weight: 6-1/195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 2nd round pick in the 2012 MLB Draft
2013 Stats: 3-5, 6.78 ERA with 66 K and 40 BB in 67 2/3 IP between low-A Lake County and the Rookie League Arizona Indians

Scouting Report: Brown is a bit of a rarity in baseball; a high draft pick from a Northern high school. Selected in the 2nd round (79th overall) out of Rochester, Minnesota in 2012, Brown was given an over-slot $800,000 signing bonus to forgo his commitment to the University of San Diego. Brown struggled in his first go-around in full-season ball last year. He opened the season in the rotation for low-A Lake County, but was sent back to extended spring training after going 1-1 with an 11.49 ERA in 5 starts with the Captains. Brown struck out an impressive 18 hitters in 15 2/3 Midwest League innings, but also struggled with his control, walking 11 and hitting 4 batters. Brown got back into the rotation with the Arizona Indians but again struggled, going 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA in 52 IP. He again struggled with his control, walking 29 in the complex leagues. It was a step back for a pitcher that many thought was coming to the professional ranks more advanced than most high school arms, but Brown’s underlying talent hasn’t gone anywhere.

Brown features a four-pitch mix, including a 4-seam fastball, a cutter, curveball and changeup. The 4-seamer sits comfortably between 92-94 MPH, and can touch 96. It has a little natural sink to it, and when he’s spotting it well it is a very effective pitch. His best secondary offering is his cutter, a pitch that really bears in on the hands of lefthanded hitters. It has the potential to be a plus pitch at the major league level, and is really a key in Brown’s development. His curveball is inconsistent but flashes plus, it just needs some more time and repetitions to develop. His changeup lags behind his other three offerings, but will at least be a show pitch for Brown to keep hitters guessing. It’s a deep arsenal that ensures Brown will remain in the rotation long-term, provided he can command those four offerings of course.

Brown is a strong kid and a good athlete who has the strength and stamina to be an innings-eater in a major league rotation. He has outstanding makeup, as scouts, coaches and teammates alike rave about his work ethic and leadership qualities. He had a rough season in 2013, and it will be interesting to see how he bounces back this season. He has the talent and the fortitude to bounce back and have a big season and put himself right back in the mix as one of the Indians top pitching prospects, and could easily be in the top 10 of this list come next offseason. He still has the talent that made him a top-50 overall prospect in the 2012 draft, and if all breaks right he could still rise as high as a #2 in a major league rotation.

Glass half-full: A #2 starter in The Show
Glass half-empty: A back-end starter in the majors

Photo Credit: Lianna Holub
19. Anthony Santander, OF
DOB: 10/19/1994
Height/Weight: 6-2/190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Switch/Right
Acquired: International free agent signed in 2011
2013 Stats: .242/.303/.370 with 5 HR and 31 RBI in 61 games for low-A Lake County

Scouting Report: Santander was one of the Indians big $$ signings in 2011, signing out of Venezuela for a $385,000 bonus. He made his stateside debut in 2012 with the Rookie League Arizona Indians, posting a .874 OPS in 43 games in the desert. The Indians got aggressive with Santander, challenging the 18-year old with an assignment to the Midwest League last year. He struggled a little at the dish, putting up just a .672 OPS and striking out 43 times against just 13 walks. But he was able to show flashes of his potential, hitting 5 HR and 13 doubles in 219 AB in what is a very pitcher-friendly league. It wasn’t a dominant season by any means, but for an 18-year old in his first taste of full-season ball, it wasn’t a disaster either.

Santander started switch hitting just a few years ago, but he’s already showing great potential from both sides of the dish. He has smooth, level swing from both sides and projects to have plus power down the road. He’s got quite a bit of room to grow into his 6’2” frame, and once he fills out his power will develop. He has a bit of natural loft in his swing, and puts some backspin on the ball to help it carry.

Defensively, Santander projects best to LF at the next level. He has decent speed, but a below-average arm and doesn’t have the defensive chops for CF. The speed will likely decrease as he fills out, so he’s a natural fit in LF. He did play all 61 games for Lake County in RF last year, so it’s clear that the Indians are trying to keep him in RF until he proves that he cannot play there. I still see him as a LF long-term, but his overall profile would tick upwards if he is able to stay in RF. Regardless of which corner OF spot he ends up in, his hitting ability and power from both sides of the plate provide a tantalizing package for an organization that has struggled to develop an impact bat in the OF. He’s probably going to repeat the low-A Midwest League to start out 2014, but could be in line for a promotion to Carolina if he can get off to a hot start with the Captains.

Glass half-full: A switch-hitting version of Michael Brantley with more pop
Glass half-empty: We’ve got a long ways to go before we get there

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
18. T.J. House, SP
DOB: 9/29/1989
Height/Weight: 6-1/205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Left
Acquired: 16th round pick in the 2008 MLB draft
2013 Stats: 9-11 with a 4.17 ERA with 137 K and 57 BB in 164 IP between AA Akron and AAA Columbus

Scouting Report: House began the 2013 season with AA Akron, but made just 4 starts in an Aeros uniform before getting promoted to AAA Columbus. He went 2-1 with the Aeros, striking out 27 and walking just 3 in 22 1/3 IP. His K rate dropped and walk rate climbed during his first stint in AAA, but posted solid numbers, especially considering that he threw most of his innings in the friendly confines of Huntington Park. He improved as the season went on, and was at his best in the months of July and August when he went a combined 6-2 with an ERA below 3, and  55 K’s to just 21 BB. He led the Clippers in both IP and strikeouts, proving resilient and effective after his rough May and June. As is typical, he was more effective against same-siders than righties. Righthanded batters hit .301 off of House, while lefties hit just .254. He’s a good athlete, repeating his delivery consistently. He’s got a high baseball IQ, and will always get the most out of his stuff on the mound.

House sets everything up with his fastball, an above-average offering that sits consistently between 91-94 MPH. It touches as high as 96, and has nice arm-side run. House works from a high ¾ arm-slot after experimenting with a move over the top delivery after he was drafted in 2011. His best secondary offering is his slider, an above-average pitch that has nice late life. It’s especially tough on lefties, and is a real swing and miss offering for him. He rounds out his repertoire with a changeup that is still a work in progress. If he can refine the changeup to the point where it is a legitimate weapon against righthanded hitters, House’s future in the rotation would be a lot clearer.

Last offseason, the Indians had the chance to roster either House or fellow southpaw T.J. McFarland. They chose the younger House, and McFarland was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. McFarland stuck with the Orioles all season, and will be a member of their bullpen again in 2013. The Indians believe that House can start, even if it’s filling out the back end of a major league rotation. He’ll be 24 years old for the 2014 season, and while he’s almost certain to start out in the rotation for AAA Columbus, he’ll be one of the first options considered for a call-up should injury or ineffectiveness befall one or more members of the Indians starting 5.

Glass half-full: A #3/4 starter in a major league rotation
Glass half-empty: A #4/5 starter in a major league rotation

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
17. C.C. Lee, RP
DOB: 10/21/1986
Height/Weight: 5-11/190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: International free agent signed in 2008
2013 Stats: 0-0, 4.15 ERA with 4 K and 3 BB in 4 1/3 IP for Cleveland; 1-0, 2.48 ERA with 37 K and 10 BB in 29 IP between Lake County, Akron and Columbus.

Scouting Report: Lee would’ve likely been a regular fixture in the Indians bullpen last season, but he suffered an elbow injury and was able to throw just 7 innings in 2012. Still, even after the lost season, Lee was able to climb the organizational ladder to make his major league debut last year, throwing 4 1/3 innings for the Indians out of the bullpen. He’s posted some eye-popping strikeout numbers throughout his career, racking up 323 K in 263 1/3 minor league innings, good for an even 11 strikeouts per 9 IP.

Lee attacks hitters from a variety of arm angles, working from ¾ to sidearm and everywhere in between. His fastball sits between 92-95 MPH and can touch 97. It’s impressive velocity for a guy who stands less than 6’ tall, and because of the arm angles that Lee uses the pitch has a ton of movement. His 2-seamer has a lot of arm-side run and sink, bearing in on the hands of righthanded hitters. He compliments the pitch with a plus slider, a pitch with outstanding life and tilt. The pitch is murder on righthanded hitters, and I’ve seen some very good hitters look foolish when facing the pitch. He also has a forkball that acts as his change of pace pitch. It can really dive down and away from righties, and while it’s an effective 3rd pitch it’s not the swing and miss offering that his slider has been.

Lee pretty much is what he is at this point, and has a very good chance to break camp in the Indians bullpen. He could serve in the Joe Smith role in 2014, an effective weapon to neutralize an opponent’s top righthanded hitter(s) late in the game. He’s probably never going to be a closer in the major leagues because he’s not as effective against lefties as he is against righties, but he should still be a very effective back-end arm in the new and improved Bullpen Mafia.

Glass half-full: A late-inning arm, effective against hitters on both sides of the plate
Glass half-empty: A late-inning arm, used primarily against righties

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella
16. Eric Haase, C
DOB: 12/18/1992
Height/Weight: 5-10/180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 7th round pick in the 2011 MLB draft
2013 Stats: .250/.322/.439 with 14 HR and 47 RBI in 104 games for low-A Lake County

Scouting Report: Selected in the 7th round of the 2011 draft, the man who was named Michigan’s “Mr. Baseball” as a high school senior was wooed away from his commitment to The Ohio State University with an over-slot $580,000 signing bonus. He’s an example of a guy who’s projection far outpaces his actual production at this point in his career, but I’m a big believer in the tools and I think he’ll play up to this ranking.

Haase has above-average tools across the board. He has plus raw power and an above-average hit tool from the right side of the plate. His opposite-field power in particular is impressive for a player with his experience, something that Haase says came from pitchers trying to work around him when he was in high school. Haase had to learn to hit the ball where it was pitched, because it was a rare occurrence for him to see something on the inner half as a prep player in Michigan. He has quick, strong hands and can let the ball travel deep into the hitting zone before deciding whether or not to swing, and does a nice job staying inside the baseball and using all fields. He struggled a little last season in the difficult hitter’s environment of the Midwest League, striking out 117 times against just 40 walks. It was his first taste of full-season professional baseball, and his “struggles” are nothing to be too concerned about. For a 20-year old from a Northern High School, playing in the Midwest League, he held his own just fine.

Defensively, Haase has all the tools to be a 6 defender at the major league level. He moves well behind the plate, has quick feet and strong fundamentals. He’s worked on his throwing mechanics since turning pro, and his quick actions allow his plus arm to play to a level where it is a weapon in controlling the opposing teams’ running game. He threw out 49 of 137 would-be baserunners last year, good for a 36% caught-stealing percentage. He handles pitchers well and is a good receiver who uses his soft hands to frame pitches on the outer edges of the strike zone.

Haase has everything you look for in a catcher, as his baseball tools and intelligence all rate above-average. He’s an excellent athlete and a natural leader who is playing above his experience level right now. When he has a chance for his tools to catch up to the steep learning curve he’s on, look out. I’m a little higher on Haase than most, owing to both my love of catchers and just how impressed I was watching Haase play in Goodyear the past two seasons. He’s got a ways to go before he’s ready to contribute at the major league level, but I see an above-average catcher on both sides of the baseball once he gets there. Haase will likely move up to high-A Carolina in 2014, and will again be challenged by a notoriously difficult hitter’s league. So don’t worry if the stats don’t pop off the page; the tools are there, they just need a little seasoning.

Glass half-full: An all-star catcher

Glass half-empty: A solid backup catcher