Back in the Groove on a Lazy Sunday

They go to eleven

In the immortal words of Spinal Tap…Helllooooooo Cleveland! I never planned to take five months of from writing about the Indians, honest. But an unexpected and lengthy work trip to the UK this summer sapped pretty much all of my free time, so sitting down to put virtual pen to paper became even more difficult than usual. Combine that with a slow hotel internet connection that failed to stream live video and was rarely even able to keep up with Hammy’s audio feed, and I couldn’t help but feel out of the loop when it came to the 2014 Cleveland Indians. Highlights and box scores can only show so much, and I didn’t make it to a single minor league game after mid-May. I’m glad it was 2014 and not 1994 (or even 2004), because I did at least have the luxury of MLBTV’s condensed game replays, baseball reference, and #IndiansTwitter to help me feel somewhat connected to the team, but there’s no substitute to watching full games day in and day out. Of course, it did allow me to miss out on witnessing live the Indians defensive…challenges, so maybe there’s a silver lining in there after all. At any rate, I’m back in the U.S. for the foreseeable future, and want to try and make our time here at The DiaTribe a little more regular. So expect to see me here on the interwebs if not every Sunday, at least more often than once every equinox.

The good thing about not writing for 6 months is that we have plenty of good stuff to talk about. Putting aside the defense for a moment…how about that pitching staff! And on the offensive side, how about…well…um…Slamtana! Yan Gomes! And of course, our MVP candidate, Michael Brantley. It’s amazing that, after a season with so little turnover in terms of the roster, the 2013 and 2014 versions of the Cleveland Indians were so different in terms of the “stars” of the respective teams. When you look at 2013 by WAR (admittedly not everyone’s favorite stat, but bear with me here because it’s a useful tool for comparison in this instance), the 2013 Cleveland Indians top-10 players were, in order:
Jason Kipnis-5.9 WAR
Carlos Santana-4.3 WAR
Yan Gomes-4.2 WAR
Nick Swisher-3.8 WAR
Justin Masterson-3.4 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez-2.7 WAR
Michael Brantley-2.4 WAR
Ryan Raburn-2.2 WAR
Michael Bourn-1.9 WAR
Joe Smith-1.8 WAR

 

Other than Jimenez and Smith, all of those players were on the 2014 opening day roster. Of the eight players remaining, just three (Santana, Gomes and Brantley) were in the top-10 in WAR for the club this year. Swisher, Masterson and Raburn combined to be worth -3.2 WAR. Yes, NEGATIVE 3.2 wins from three guys who were worth 9.4 wins last season. So subtract those twelve wins, and consider the biggest addition in free agency this year was Scott Atchison and his 1.7 WAR, and you begin to appreciate the fact that this team was in the playoff hunt down to the last week of the regular season. If you’d told me in March of 2014 that Masty, Asdrubal, Bourn, Swish, Murphy, Vinnie, Kipnis and Raburn would combine to be worth negative WAR in the upcoming season, I probably would’ve guessed that the Indians would win somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 games. Instead, they won 85 and missed out on a Wild Card berth by a couple of games, staying in the playoff hunt down to the final few days of the season. Would I say that I’m happy with a season that resulted in the Indians watching the playoffs from home? No, of course not. But I can recognize the progression that this roster made from 2013 to 2014, and be happy with what guys like Kluber, Brantley, Cookie and Cody Allen are turning into. I can take a step back and objectively say that I think the framework is there for the 2015 Indians to be better than the 2014 Indians, and that’s not something I could say at this time last year. Like it or not, every significant contributor (and those who were not significant contributors) to the 2014 team are team control through at least next season. Most are under team control for much, much longer. The top seven starters are either short of or just entering their arbitration years. Cy Young frontrunner(!) Corey Kluber can’t be a free agent until 2019. Freshman in high school will be in college before Corey Kluber can choose to leave the North Shore. MVP candidate Michael Brantley is signed through 2017, with an $11 million club option for 2018. That option increases by $1 million every time Brantley places in the top-5 of MVP voting, so it’ll probably be at least $12 million by then, and hopefully $16 million. I know the team fell short of what we’d hoped they would achieve in 2014, but they really are set up for success in 2015 and beyond.

Despite shattering all of my hopes and dreams for the offseason (more on that in a second), Anthony Castrovice put out his predictably fantastic season recap earlier this week. Castro continues to churn out excellent and insightful Indians content despite moving on to the national beat, and for that I am grateful. He’s the LeBron of the baseball sportswriters; both are at the top of their respective games, and we have access to their brilliance mainly because each happened to grow up in Northeast Ohio. Every word of his article is worth reading, so if you haven’t had a chance to check it out yet, please do so. I promise this column will be here when you get back.

I miss you so much. Please call me. 

When I mentioned Castro crushing my dreams for the offseason, I was referring to his tidbit on Victor Martinez:

That right there is reason enough not to entertain any dreams of a Victor Martinez return, to the extent that any of you did so anyway. Amazing that Vic, at this stage of his career, stands to be arguably the best bat available in the open market, but I don’t think the Tigers will let him reach that point anyway. I do think he’ll end his career with the Indians at some point, somehow, because that’s something he wants to do. But it’s not going to be with a long-term contract signed with Cleveland. It’s more likely to be the Jim Thome-type waiver claim at some point down the road.

I’ve been onboard the “bring Vic back to Cleveland” train for a while now, but I’m slowly coming to the realization that it is probably not in the cards this year. Victor slugged his way to an incredible .335/.409/.565 line this season, good for a league-leading .974 OPS. He finished with a career-high 32 HR, and will almost certainly in the top-5 of the MVP voting this offseason. At age 35, he’s both at the top of his game and angling for his last big contract, coming off of the 4-year, $50 million deal he signed with Detroit back in 2011. If the Indians sign a bat this offseason, it probably isn’t going to be Victor. The Tigers can’t afford to lose his presence in the lineup and in the clubhouse, especially with the unexpected “decline” of Miguel Cabrera from otherworldly to just really, really good. Mike Ilitch is going to break out his checkbook this offseason to keep Martinez in Detroit, and unless his heart is dead-set on a return to Cleveland right now, I don’t see any way the Indians can make an offer that will even be in the ballpark of what he’s going to get from Detroit.

So especially in light of what is (or isn’t, as the case may be) available when it comes to offense this offseason, should the Indians #1 priority even be adding offense? It’s easy to look back at this season and point to the offense as the problem, especially down the stretch as the team was able to waste a plethora of strong starting pitching performances in close games (31 runs as a team in 13 September losses). But as Jordan Bastian details, Tito Francona doesn’t necessarily see the club selling out for offense this winter:

Potentian Indians Free Agent Target?

Is adding a “big bat” a priority this winter?

Francona: “I think that’s the easy [answer]. It’s, ‘Hey, go get a power bat.’ OK. What we’re really trying to do is see how many runs our pitching staff we think is going to give up and how many runs we’re going to score offensively, and then where does that fit moving forward. Do we think that makes us a team that can contend? I can tell you from personal experience, I’d rather win 3-1 than 8-7, because it’s a hard way to win consistently. I agree, there are times in a season when you have to win like that, but when your pitching gives you a chance… even the last couple months, as hard as runs seemed to be for us to score, we seemed to have a chance pretty much every night.”

External solutions through free agency can be pricey and risky, as we’ve seen first-hand with the recent Swisher and Bourn signings. Tito and the front office have been on the same page since he agreed to manage the club. Is it possible they’re looking to improve in other ways via the personnel already under team control? What if they think that the offense is going to be serviceable next season via bounceback years from Kipnis, Swisher, Bourn and David Murphy? I’m not saying I think that all four of those guys are going to produce at a higher level next season, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.

If the rotation and bullpen are more or less set and the offense can be “fixed” with rebound seasons from key guys, then the biggest issue this offseason becomes the team’s defense. The word “atrocious” comes to mind when I think of the Indians 2014 defense. Every starting pitcher on the team, with the exception of T.J. House, had a lower FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than ERA. Well, there just so happen to be two internal options to fix the defense as well. The first and most obvious would be to start uber-prospect Francisco Lindor at shortstop next season. Jose Ramirez did a nice job filling in at SS when the Indians traded Asdrubal Cabrera this year, but Lindor has a better glove, arm and bat than Ramirez. My feelings on Lindor are well-known, and service time be damned, I think he should be the club’s SS on opening day 2015. The second internal option would be to either trade or move to the outfield incumbent 3B Lonnie Chisenhall and use a combination of Ramirez, Mike Aviles and prospect Giovanny Urshela at 3B in 2015. Chisenhall put together his most successful season at the plate this year, hitting a solid .280/.343/.427 (120 OPS+). Per baseball reference’s version of WAR, he was worth 3.1 wins with his bat (oWAR). Unfortunately, posted a -1.5 dWAR in the field, somewhat negating his offensive contributions by giving those runs back at the hot corner. The Indians could move Chisenhall to LF, Brantley to RF and use David Murphy and Nick Swisher (sparingly) as needed to fill in. Now, I’m sure you’re all yelling at your computer screen right now that Chiz, Brantley, Bourn and Murphy are all lefthanded, which is one reason I think the Indians might elect to trade Chisenhall rather than try him in the outfield. But unless you think that his 2014 season was a stepping stone to offensive heights yet unseen by the 26 year old 3B, you can’t keep trotting him out at 3B on a daily basis.

I like Lonnie Chisenhall. I think he’s as nice of a guy as you’ll find in baseball. He’s great in the clubhouse, and a hard worker on and off the field. I also think that the spike in his offensive production in 2014 was a bit of a fluke, and that the Indians should move him if anyone shows any interest this offseason. From April 2 through July 1, the span of 68 games, Chisenhall hit .344/.399/.563 with 9 HR (224 AB). He also hit an unsustainable .382 on balls in play (BABIP). From July 2 through Sept 28 (74 games and 254 AB), Chisenhall hit just .224/.293/.307 with 4 HR. His BABIP during that timeframe was .277, a little on the low side but much closer to what we can expect than a sky-high .382. If first-half Lonnie Chisenhall is the real Chisenhall that we’ll get moving forward, then he can absolutely be an everyday 3B, even with the defensive limitations. But if he’s 2^nd half Lonnie Chisenhall, or even the .770 OPS guy that we ended up with after his two halves balanced out, then I just don’t see him as a first-division 3B moving forward. Prospect Gio Urshela projects as an elite defender, and posed an .804 (13 HR) OPS in 104 games as a 22-year old with AAA Columbus this year. When considering those offensive numbers, bear in mind that the average age of the AAA International League pitchers last year was 27.9. He probably wouldn’t have that level of offensive competence right away, but he should at least be a solid defender as soon as he comes up. Fixing the defense could be easier, cheaper, and quicker than trying to find the mythical “big bat” that some fans are clamoring for, and it could be accomplished by promoting internal options Urshela and Francisco Lindor.

One of my favorite Indians related articles of 2014 was published this week, authored by longtime DiaTribe favorite Jon Steiner. Jon and I agree on a lot when it comes to our favorite baseball team, and this piece is no different. Jon sees a lot of anger in the fandom over the Indians front office, from the GM to the Team President to the ownership. He, like me, finds much of that anger silly and misplaced. A couple of Jon’s key points:

But I also think that the fact that people are even having the discussion about firing the GM again is ridiculous. The Indians have won more games in the last two years than the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Rays, the Royals, the Angels, the Rangers, the Mariners, and the Blue Jays. Of the 30 MLB teams, only seven have won more games over this span than the Indians, three of whom reside in the American League. This front office has taken a team with the worst ticket sales in baseball and a hamstrung budget, and won more games than all but three teams in the League.

They’ve also managed to acquire the following players via trade: Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Yan Gomes, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Santana. That’s a 200-hit guy, a soon-to-be Cy Young winner, two of the best catchers in the American League, and two of the brightest young pitching talents in the game. They were smart enough not to re-sign Ubaldo or extend Justin Masterson before this season, even though they caught flack for both.  They single-handedly brought one of the most decorated managers in the game to Cleveland, to play in front of an empty house with unproven players. I think you could reasonably argue that no front office in baseball has done more with less in the last fifteen years, including the Rays and A’s.

The entire piece is filled with salient, intelligent points about the 2014 Indians, the plan for 2015 and how the Indians front office isn’t nearly as bad as some people would like to believe. Does the team need to draft better? Absolutely. But talent can be acquired from a variety of sources, and for every poor draft result, there has been a trade to make up for it. The Indians have turned Casey Blake, Jake Westbrook, Shin Soo-Choo, and Esmil Rodgers into Carlos Santana, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles. The Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia trades, long having been dismissed as abject failures, wound up producing the Indians 2^nd best starter and a probable top-5 MVP position player in 2014. Shapiro and Antonetti are not batting 1.000 on every decision they’ve ever made as leaders of this organization, but to expect them to do so is ludicrous. Anyone who thinks that the GM and Team President are the only thing holding this organization back from a championship are kidding themselves. Jon says that better than I could, and if you haven’t read the piece yet, please remedy that situation immediately. And if you have read it, read it again. It’s that good.

That’s it for this week, as I’m going to ease myself back into the groove here. The only benefit of not writing for so long is that we have a LOT to talk about. I still want to check in on the performance of the organization’s farm teams, plans for 2015, the incredible breakout of Michael Brantley, YAN GOMES and the unbelievable performance of the pitching staff in the 2^nd half of 2014. It’s a long offseason, and we’ll get into all that and much more as the winter drags on. I’d like to offer a sincere thanks for anyone who’s reading for sticking with me here on The DiaTribe, and look forward to spending our Lazy Sunday mornings together more often moving forward. Go Tribe. 

Lazy Sunday Down in the Minors

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

I haven’t been able to crank out a Lazy one the past two weeks, as Easter and my wife’s birthday conspired to make things even crazier than usual around the house. Hopefully I’ll make it up to you this week, as I’m unveiling just shy of 5,000 words on the Indians minor league system and how the performances of some of the prospects in the organization stack up after the first month of the season. The below stats are only through April 30, so they won’t include Francisco Lindor’s home run from Friday, or Clint Frazier’s walk-off single. Hopefully you enjoy the in-depth look at the org, as I’ve been able to see both Carolina and Akron several times this season already, and I’ve seen a lot of interesting stuff from players at both of those levels. The Columbus and Lake County info will be primarily statistics based, but I’ll be incorporating the views of some trusted friends and colleagues who’ve gotten first-hand looks at the AAA and low-A affiliates. So without further ado, let’s get at it here on the first Lazy Sunday in the month of May.

• Akron RubberDucks catcher Tony Wolters is hitting .286/.329/.325 with 3 2B and 6 RBI in 21 AA games. That Wolters has 22 hits in the month of April is especially encouraging, because he had just 16 hits in 28 April games in the 2012/13 seasons. The 21-year old is young for the level and still learning a new defensive position, which happens to be the most physically and mentally demanding position on the field. Wolters could hit .100 for the season with no HR and still have a productive developmental season. He’s improving every day with the glove, and talent evaluators outside the Indians organization feel confident that he can play the position at the major league level someday. Watching him catch makes you wonder if he was secretly playing the position during the offseason prior to 2013. His hands are strong, he’s already a good receiver of the baseball and he’s improving his blocking on pitches in the dirt. He’s thrown out 6 of 13 would-be basestealers (46% CS rate!) this year. Oh, and he’s still got the ability to do this if he’s called upon to play 2B (two appearances at 2B this season). Wolters has long been one of my personal favorites in the organization, and he’s got the attention of plenty of people around baseball right now as a future major league backstop.

• Outfielder Bryson Myles is another who’s off to a solid start this season. Myles is hitting .292/.350/.444 with a HR, 4 2B, 2 3B and 6 RBI. He’s swiped three bases while also being caught three times, and provides above-average defense in LF for the RubberDucks. Myles is a career .291/.363/.405 hitter in 265 minor league games, and it’s good to see him maintaining his production despite the jump to AA this season.

• Clippers catcher Roberto Perez has been playing out of his mind this season. Coming into 2014, Perez was a career .227/.359/.326 hitter with 14 HR in 461 minor league games. He was always an elite defender behind the plate, but struggled to do much on the offensive side of the game. It’s a small sample size, but in the season’s first month he’s broken out to a .409/.519/.727 line with 4 HR and 12 RBI. He’s walked 10 times and struck out 8 in 16 games with Columbus. It’s a remarkable line, and unprecedented in Perez’s career. He appeared in 67 games with Columbus last year, and hit just .176/.269/.241 with no homers. It was revealed earlier this week that Perez played the 2013 season while suffering from Bell’s palsy, which partially paralyzed the left side of his face (to include his left eye). As a right-handed hitter, Perez’s left eye is his lead eye, and problems with that eye would have to make it especially difficult to hit. It’s a great story, and it’s fantastic to see Perez finding success with his offensive game commensurate with his fantastic defense. If Perez can be even a competent hitter, then he could have a very long and productive major league career.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

• Carolina Mudcats shortstop Erik Gonzalez has always been a solid defender, but he’s been making an impact with the bat this season as well. Gonzalez is hitting .341/.368/.495 with a HR, 5 2B, 3 3B and 11 RBI. Gonzalez is a big, athletic kid who has a very projectable frame. He should add strength as he fills out, and has the potential to be an impact player in the middle of the diamond. Gonzalez used to have a big, high leg lift that created timing issues, as he was often out on his front foot on off-speed pitches and had some trouble timing up his hands and his left leg. When I saw him in early April, the high leg lift was still there. But when I saw him last weekend in Frederick, it was much lower and less pronounced. His hands were quieter prior to loading and his timing looked much better as a result. If Gonzalez can stick with and refine these mechanical adjustments to his swing, he could be a top-10 prospect in the Indians organization this coming offseason.

• Southpaw starter T.J. House started four games for the Clippers in April, and finished the month with a miniscule 1.59 ERA in 22 2/3 IP. House allowed 3 ER in his first start of the season, and has given up just 1 ER in his last three outings. He’s struck out 16 and walked just 5. He’s never been and will never be a guy who misses a ton of bats, but he does a nice job commanding the ball within the strike zone and keeps the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. House still projects best as a back-end starter, but can be an effective innings-eater in a major league rotation.

• Jordan Cooper is pitching out of the Akron bullpen to start off the season after shoulder surgery this winter, and has a 2-0 record with a 3.00 ERA in 12 AA IP. He’s struck out 11 and walked just 3 so far, and looks like he’s stretching back out to move back into the starting rotation. Cooper’s last outing was on April 29, where he went 3 innings while allowing just one baserunner and striking out a pair.

• I tried and failed to upload video straight to the site here, so to get a look at catching prospect Francisco Mejia you’ll have to hop over to youtube. Here’s video that I shot of Mejia collecting three hits in Goodyear, and here’s a slow-motion video of Mejia singling up the middle so you can get a good look at his swing mechanics. Mejia is a fun guy to dream on, and I can’t wait until the 18-year old catcher is assigned to one of the Indians affiliates so more fans can get a look at him. For now, he’s toiling away in extended spring training and will likely get another year in the complex leagues when those games start up in late-June.

• Akron reliever Kyle Crockett is picking up right where he left off last season, opening 2014 with 9 1/3 scoreless innings pitched out of the RubberDuck bullpen. Crockett has allowed just four base runners this year (3 hits and one walk) while striking out 9. The lefty now has a career ERA of 0.26 in 34 professional innings pitched, and could find himself in Cleveland as soon as this season if the need arises. He’s not a hard thrower, working more off of a deceptive motion and pinpoint control.

• After 18 games in AA to close out the 2013 season, CF Tyler Naquin is back in Akron this year. He’s hitting .267/.344/.384 with 4 2B and 3 3B this year, stealing 5 bases in 7 attempts. Naquin is struggling against same-side pitchers, hitting a robust .321/.400/.491 against righties but just .182/.250/.212 against lefties. I got to see Naquin’s best tool play in a game against Bowie a couple of weeks ago, as he preserved an Akron victory with a walk-off outfield assist in the bottom of the 9^th inning. There were runners on 1^st and 2^nd with 2 outs in the 9^th with Akron clinging to a one-run lead, and a Bowie hitter sent a grounder back up the middle and into CF. With any other player in CF, the game would be tied. Naquin charged the soft grounder, had a little trouble getting a handle on the ball but still managed to throw a perfect, one-hop strike to catcher Tony Wolters to send Akron home with a win. It was an incredible play, and a great opportunity to see just how much of an impact Naquin can make in the field.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

• Another RubberDuck who’s been opening eyes around baseball with his play this year is 3B Gio Urshela. Urshela is hitting .302/.344/.570 with 5 HR (tied for 4^th in the Eastern League), 8 doubles and 19 RBI (tied for 3^rd in the EL). Urshela put up a .676 OPS in 116 AA games last season, so his .914 mark this year is a huge leap and probably not sustainable for a full season. But he’s added strength to his frame over the offseason, and is really showing an improvement in his ability to drive balls to the opposite field. He’s still a potential Gold Glove defender at 3B, so an improvement with the bat would really make him a serious prospect. In the same game that Naquin made the play I described above, Urshela turned in a highlight-level defensive play of his own. He went deep behind the 3B bag to backhand a ball and then made a strong throw across the diamond while still running away from 1B. It looked almost like Manny Machado’s web gem from last July, showing both Urshela’s incredible range and arm strength. He’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

• Venezuelan-born 1B Jesus Aguilar is feasting on the offense-friendly environment of Clippers Huntington Park this year. Aguilar is hitting .356/.440/.667 with 7 HR, 6 2B and 16 RBI. The 7 HR are good for 2^nd in the International League. The line may prove to be a little deceiving though, as Aguilar has a 1.320 OPS and 6 HR in 14 home games and just a .795 OPS and 1 HR in 10 games on the road. Some fans are clamoring for Aguilar’s promotion as a shot in the arm for a struggling Indians offense, but I still think he’ll struggle against big-league breaking balls.

• Right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong had a rocky 2013 season, dealing with an arm injury that limited him to 37 IP (4.14 ERA) between AA Akron and the complex leagues. Armstrong has shown no lingering effects from the arm issue so far in 2014, as he’s allowed just one earned run in 9 1/3 IP, striking out 14 and walking just 3. Armstrong has been a lights-out reliever when healthy, striking out 142 batters in 116 career IP. He’s a future late-inning arm in the Indians bullpen, and like his teammate Kyle Crockett, could be there as soon as this season if the need arises.

• Righty Cody Anderson is the RubberDucks top SP prospect, and has been a little hot and cold this year. In his three good starts, Anderson has gone a combined 14 IP while allowing just 2 ER. In his two bad starts, Anderson has been roughed up for 8 ER in 11 IP. His strikeout rate is lower than you’d like to see, with just 13 K in 25 IP overall this season. He’s walked 9 and allowed 26 hits, and as of right now looks more like a future back-end starter than a future #3.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

• Lindor Watch continues. The Indians top prospect is hitting .281/.354/.416 with 2 HR, 2 2B, 2 3B and 13 RBI in 23 games with the RubberDucks. He’s stolen 5 bases in 7 attempts, and continues to play elite defense at the SS position. Asdrubal Cabrera has been struggling at the plate and in the field, and some fans have been clamoring for the Indians to replace him with Lindor. I don’t see that happening anytime soon. It’d be unfair to Lindor to put him in that role at this stage of his development, as asking a 20-year old prospect with no experience above AA to step in and be the savior for a major league team simply isn’t realistic. Indians fans have to be patient with the major league club and with their farmhands, as we’re just one month into a 162-game season. Lindor has the total package, and could be a very, very good major league shortstop for a long time. But that time isn’t quite upon us, not just yet anyway.

• Last year’s 1^st round draft pick, outfielder Clint Frazier suffered a minor hamstring injury in spring training, causing the Indians to slow-roll their multi-million dollar investment and hold him in extended spring training for a little while. Frazier only appeared in 13 games for Lake County in April, hitting .224/.339/.327 with a double, two triples and 3 RBI. He did hit his first full-season league HR on May 1, a 2-run shot to tie the game in the bottom of the 8^th inning. Frazier is a prodigious talent with elite bat speed, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting the ball out of the ballpark with regularity. The Georgia native has never played in NE Ohio weather conditions before, and I have to think that he’ll start to warm up with the weather here in May/June.

• Catcher Alex Lavisky has played only sparingly as the backup to Tony Wolters in Akron, but he’s been hitting the ball when he has been in the lineup. Lavisky has just 22 AB, but he’s hitting .318/.348/.636 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in that limited action. Lavisky is a big, strong kid who still has the potential to be a solid catcher both at and behind the plate.

• Mudcats left-handed starter Shawn Morimando has been dominant in the early going this season, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 3-0 record in his 5 Carolina League starts. Morimando is just 21 years old, and although he’s repeating the Carolina League this year he’s still age-appropriate for the level. He struggled somewhat with his command last year, walking 76 hitters in 135 innings. I talked to Morimando in Frederick last week, and he said that controlling his walks was his main goal for 2014. That goal is going well so far, as Morimando has walked just 5 in 28 2/3 IP this season. The low walk rate has helped keep his WHIP under 1, and the former 19^th round draft pick is looking like a late-round find for the Indians.

• Although C.C. Lee got the first call to Cleveland when the big club needed a bullpen arm, I still think that flame throwing right-hander Austin Adams is the organization’s top relief prospect. A former shortstop in college, Adams is an outstanding athlete who touches triple digits with his 80-grade fastball and flashes a plus slider and curve as well. He hasn’t been as untouchable as usual so far this year, allowing 7 ER in 11 2/3 IP for the Clippers. But 6 of those 7 ER came in two outings, and he’s given up just 1 ER in the other 9 1/3 innings of work. You obviously can’t pick and choose which innings to keep and which to throw out, but I am pretty sure Adams won’t have an ERA over 5 for much longer. He’s a potential late-inning bullpen arm that is ready for major league action as soon as the Indians need another reliever.

• Another of my personal favorites in the organization, Captains catcher Eric Haase started off the season on fire, but slumped in the 2^nd half of April to finish the month with a .217/.341/.507 slash line in 19 games. As you’d guess from the SLG, Haase does lead the team (and the entire Midwest League) in HR with 5 to go along with 5 2B. But he also has just 5 singles on the season, hence the relatively low batting average. Haase has an intriguing blend of tools on both the offensive and defensive side of the game, but his hit tool is going to have to improve if he’s going to catch at the major league level.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

• The Mudcats (and by extension the Indians) got a tough break, literally, when starting pitcher Dylan Baker went down with a broken fibula. Baker dealt with a nagging oblique issue in spring training, and when he was on the mound towards the end of spring he was hit in the leg by a line drive. He felt good enough to pitch, and threw 6 perfect innings in his Carolina League debut in Frederick. I was at that start, and Baker was dominant, working in the high-90’s with his fastball and flashing a plus curveball and slider. Prior to his next start though, Baker was hopping over the baseline as he always does and snapped his fibula. Baker is in extended spring training right now rehabbing the injury, and will probably not pitch again during the 2014 regular season. A really, really tough break for a talented kid and a guy who was really looking like he’d play a big role in the Indians farm system this year.

• Versatile infielder Jose Ramirez came into 2014 with 7 career HR in 231 minor league games. He’s already hit 4 in 23 games this season, to go along with an impressive .319/.365/.484 slash line. Ramirez profiles best as a utility infielder. He can spot start anywhere on the infield, but his best defensive position is 2B. That just happens to match up with a hole that the Indians suddenly have thanks to an injury to Jason Kipnis. The Indians already have a versatile utility guy in Mike Aviles, but Ramirez can come up to help split time at 2B as well as pinch run and fill in with the occasional spot start at 3B or SS.

• Reaching all the way down to extended spring training, Indians 2012 3^rd round draft pick Kieran Lovegrove was expected to begin this season with low-A Lake County. But the 19-year old had a bout of self-described “Ankiel-itis” in spring training this year, losing complete command of his fastball midway through camp in Goodyear. Lovegrove was able to throw his changeup and slider for strikes, but couldn’t get his fastball over the plate no matter what. It was more of a mental problem than physical, as Lovegrove was healthy and still throwing in the 94-97 MPH range. Lovegrove had to stick around in Arizona for extended spring training, but has worked through the issue with his fastball and has appeared in three games in Goodyear without seeing the problem re-appear. It’s just a matter of time before the 19-year old gets assigned to a full-season league now that he’s back on track. With a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90’s, a wipeout slider and a solid changeup, he’s got a chance to be one of the top SP prospects in the organization.

• Captains 1B Nellie Rodriguez has as much raw power as anyone in the Indians system, despite not turning 20 until mid-June. Rodriguez is 2^nd on the team (and the Midwest League) with 4 bombs this year, and hit .225/.337/.413 in 24 April contests. Rodriguez still needs to improve his pitch recognition/selection and hit tool, but his profile at a corner IF spot is tantalizing for an organization that’s short on big power guys. He’s struck out 29 times and walked 14 this season, continuing a trend of a 2/1 K/BB ratio throughout his career. The Midwest league can be tough on hitters, but the Indians are going to be patient with the slugging young 1B and are likely to give him a full season in low-A this year no matter what the end result looks like.

• I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the performance that Trevor Bauer has turned in this season, winning 3 of his 4 AAA starts and posting a 1.40 ERA for the Clip Show. Separate from his very good MLB spot start, Bauer has 28 K in 25 2/3 innings, and most importantly has walked just 7 hitters. I’ve written pretty extensively about Bauer already this season, so I’m not going to rehash it here. Suffice to say I expect that Bauer will be the one getting the call to replace Carlos Carrasco in the rotation, and hopefully the mechanical adjustments he’s made will stay consistent and effective over a larger sample size at the major league level this season.

• The other pitcher competing to replace the ineffective Carrasco had a pretty good month of April himself, as the Little Cowboy Josh Tomlin went 1-1 for the Clippers with a 2.77 ERA in 26 IP. Tomlin struck out 18 and walked an uncharacteristic 9 hitters, but didn’t issue a free pass in 8 innings of work during his April 25 start against Gwinnett. Tomlin was certainly shaking some rust off after not pitching at all in 2013, and looks like he’s back to his old strike-throwing self. I still think Bauer offers more ultimate upside as a member of the rotation, but Tomlin has the ability to give this team effective innings in 2014 and beyond as well. 

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

• Former UCLA Bruin Adam Plutko is doing something in the pros that he really didn’t do in college; strike out a ton of batters. Plutko was the Indians 11^th round pick in the 2013 draft, and he struck out 81 hitters in 124 innings of work his final year at UCLA. He’s managed to rack up 31 K in just 22 1/3 innings for Lake County, taking advantage of the over-aggressiveness of low-A batters with his advanced feel for pitching. Plutko doesn’t have front of the rotation stuff, but he’s a very intelligent pitcher with excellent command and mound presence. He’s an intense competitor and is going to be a guy who always gets the most out of his stuff. He’s going to run into much tougher challenges on his way up the organizational ladder, and a pitcher with his experience should really be in high-A sooner rather than later.

• Judging solely by ERA, lefty starter Ryan Merritt was the best starting pitcher in the Carolina League during the month of April. Merritt went 3-0 for the Mudcats, allowing just a single earned run in 24 1/3 IP. He doesn’t have dominating stuff, getting it done more with command and control that an overpowering fastball, but a 0.37 ERA is a 0.37 ERA. Opposing batters hit just .165 off of him, and he struck out 18 and walked just 6. He put up a 3.42 ERA for the Captains last year, and is looking like he’s on track for an even better year in Carolina this season.

• After setting the AZL on fire to the tune of a 1.015 OPS in 2012, SS Dorssys Paulino has struggled in the Midwest League the past two seasons. Paulino hit just .246/.297/.349 in 120 games for the Captains last year, and went for a .221/.275/.305 slash line in April of 2014. It’s actually an improvement for Paulino over last April when he hit just .208/.288/.208 during the first month of the season for Lake County. Paulino is another player who is much more used to playing in warm weather, having grown up in the Dominican Republic. The Midwest League in April cannot be fun for him, and hopefully he can pick up his production as the weather warms up. Paulino posted a .716 OPS in August of last season, and especially seeing as he’s repeating the level, I’d expect to see a similar uptick in production as the season wears on.

• I didn’t know a whole lot about 3B Grant Fink before seeing him in Arizona this year, but came away impressed. He made several athletic defensive plays at 3B, flashed a strong throwing arm and demonstrated a solid approach at the plate. Fink led the Captains in batting during the month of April, slashing .280/.379/.378 with a HR, 5 2B and 11 RBI. The Indians 23^rd round pick in the 2013 draft, Fink is an athletic kid that can play a very good 3B or 1B. He’s a little old for the level as a 23-year old in low-A, and is the type of player that flies under the radar and sneaks up on prospect aficionados two or three years into his career. Fink is definitely a guy that I’m keeping my eye on, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can cut down on his strikeout rate (38 in 24 games) enough to become a legitimate major league prospect.

• Imposing 6’6” RHP D.J. Brown opened the 2014 season in the Mudcats bullpen, but moved into the starting rotation on April 13. He’s made three starts, and has a 2-0 record with a 1.89 ERA in 19 total innings this season. Brown has 13 K and just 2 BB, and the James Madison graduate has been a mainstay in a Mudcats staff that’s been the best in the Carolina League so far this season (2.78 team ERA).

That’s it for this week, as our whirlwind tour of the organization is complete (for now). Status for next week’s Lazy Sunday is currently at doubtful, as I’m flying to The Netherlands today and then Sweden on Wednesday for a work trip and won’t return until Sunday. Hopefully MLB TV works on the iPad even when I’m in Europe.

Lazy Sunday Looking at Young Pitching

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Another week is in the books, and the Indians starting rotation continues to remind us of Jeckyll and Hyde. Sometimes we see the dichotomy not just from game to game or inning to inning, but from at-bat to at-bat. I’ll get into Danny Salazar’s historically odd start much more later on, but the offense is not blameless in the Tribe’s less than optimal start to the season. The Indians have grounded into 11 double plays as of Saturday, 3^rd highest in the league. Santana (4) and Brantley (3) are responsible for over half of those between the two of them, and while I don’t think that’ll necessarily continue for the entire season, it’s been really frustrating to watch here in the early going. Regardless of how good or bad the team is playing right now though, take a deep breath and realize that we are now just 7% of the way through a very long baseball season. There is a lot of baseball to be played, and I think the Indians are going to be in contention and playing interesting baseball throughout the season. So let’s get at it on a busy Lazy Sunday with all the news that’s fit to link…

Former minor league pitching coach Doug Thorburn knows more about pitching mechanics and instruction than anyone reading this right now, unless Mickey Callaway is a secret Lazy Sunday fan. He writes for Baseball Prospectus, and I’ve featured his stuff a number of times in the past and will continue to do so because he is so much better at breaking down mechanics and predicting whether a change is legitimate and repeatable than anyone else out there right now.  As you’ll no doubt notice this week and throughout my time here at The DiaTribe, I lean pretty heavily on the Baseball Prospectus guys for insight and analysis. They don’t pay me for promoting their stuff, and I don’t get a free subscription or anything, I just find that they’ve assembled a fantastic staff of major and minor league writers who provide a service that no other baseball site can replicate. It’s $40 to subscribe to them for a full year, and if the price was $100 I’d probably still pay it (but don’t tell them that.) I’m not here to tell you how to spend your money, but if you’re on the fence about subscribing, you can do a 1-month subscription for just $5. Give them a try, and I think you’ll be pleased with what you read.

Back to Thorburn and his “Raising Aces” series though; Thorburn was nice enough to take a look at Trevor Bauer’s mechanics this week, specifically comparing them to prior analysis from a November 2012 start. Thorburn loves breaking down Bauer’s mechanics, and is a believer that the talented young righty can get it together and succeed at the major league level. Bauer of course started in game 2 of the doubleheader against the Padres this past Wednesday, going 6 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 ER) on 4 hits and 2 walks, striking out 8 and hitting a batter. It was an impressive result, but one had to question the legitimacy of the numbers. It was against the light-hitting Padres after all, and Bauer had teased us with glimpses of excellence in the past only to regress to a mechanical mess in his next start. Would the scouting reports agree with the stat line? Was Bauer really making strides towards becoming a legitimate major league option? Thanks to Pitchf/x and Thorburn, we have some pretty encouraging signs that yes, this was a legitimate step forward for Bauer and not just a one-start aberration. First, let’s look at Thorburn’s mechanical grades from Wednesday’s start in juxtaposition with his November 2012 report card. Again, this is Doug Thorburn’s report card, not mine:

	Nov 2012	April 9, 2014
Balance	30	55
Momentum	70	60
Torque	60	65
Posture	30	50
Release Distance	65	65
Repetition	30	50
Overall	C	B

Bauer’s overall mechanics gained a full letter grade, and he made strides or held his ground in every category but momentum. Keep in mind that this is on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 80 would be Hall of Fame level, and 50 is considered average. Nowhere on Thorburn’s card did Bauer grade any lower than average. If you click on the link (which you should’ve done already), Thorburn provides GIFs illustrating the change in Bauer’s mechanics from the 2012 version to today’s. He breaks down the changes in very clear terms, illustrating how this could be the Trevor Bauer we’ve all been waiting for since he was acquired in the Choo trade with Arizona. Thorburn’s bottom line:

He is a student of the game who studies biomechanics and utilizes strategic methods to get an edge on the competition, but his adjustments have often overcomplicated his task and deterred Bauer from the critical component of locating pitches. He made some notable adjustments again this past offseason, and the early returns suggest that he may have found the mechanical key to unlock his ceiling.

Going a step further, the Pitchf/x data available on the also-excellent Brooksbaseball.net shows us how much better Bauer’s stuff was Wednesday than in 2013. Bauer threw 62 fastballs, averaging 94.8 MPH and topping out at 97 MPH. While he was in the majors last year, Bauer’s fastball around 93 MPH and rarely topped 95 MPH. That 2 MPH can make a difference, especially when contrasted with his mid-70’s curveball. Brooks Baseball also shows us an interesting change from last year to this year. First, take a look at this chart showing Bauer’s release points from a 2013 start:

Then, here’s the same chart for Wednesday’s start:

Why are the 2013 release points so much more varied? Bauer used to change the side of the rubber he was pitching from based on the hitter. He’d slide from the extreme right side of the rubber to the extreme left. That’s a change he’s eliminated in 2014, something that might be responsible for the greater consistency in his delivery. Bauer has always been a tinkerer, changing his approach from start to start and even inning to inning. The fact that he “only” threw four different pitches last start (no reverse sliders) and is cutting back on the purposeful variance in his delivery are signs that he’s simplifying his approach to pitching and letting his tremendous stuff do the work.

During Bauer’s start, he was victimized by MLB’s silly tinkering with the rulebook in conjunction with replay this year. I won’t belabor this because it happened a few days ago and I’m sure everyone has seen the play by now, but if you haven’t seen it you can check out Jason Collette’s site where he put up a couple of interesting videos, including the Elliot Johnson “non-catch” from Wednesday. Collette is also confused over the new rule, although by the letter of the law (that was clarified on Tuesday, the day before the controversial play) it does appear that the umpires and video replay crew in NY interpreted it correctly. A “catch” used to be pretty simple, and I’ll quote here directly from the MLB rule book:

A CATCH is the act of a fielder in getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly holding it; providing he does not use his cap, protector, pocket or any other part of his uniform in getting possession. It is not a catch, however, if simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such collision or falling, drops the ball. It is not a catch if a fielder touches a fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then is caught by another defensive player. If the fielder has made the catch and drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball shall be adjudged to have been caught. In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional.

In my mind, Johnson established secure possession and dropped the ball while in the act of making the throw. He held the ball long enough with complete control, taking several steps after catching the ball and running into the wall. But again, just the day before the play, MLB put out new guidance surrounding what is/isn’t a catch. Jordan Bastian digs into it for us here:

…umpires and/or replay officials must consider whether the fielder had secured possession of the ball but dropped it during the act of the catch. An example of a catch that would not count is if a fielder loses possession of the ball during the transfer before the ball was secured by his throwing hand.

Johnson clearly lost control of the ball before securing it in his throwing hand. So by the letter of the law, that’s not a catch. The issue here isn’t with the umpires on the field or the replay officials, but with the insane caveat that a player needs to secure the ball in his throwing hand before the umpire can deem it “caught.” By the letter of the law, an OF could secure the ball in his glove for ostensibly the 3^rd out of the inning, jog into the dugout before transferring it into his throwing hand and have taken the ball out of play, awarding all baserunners two free bases. That’s probably never going to be called, but I’m mystified as to why MLB feels the need to constantly shake things up seemingly for the sake of confusion. New replay rules and new catcher collision regulations (which I still hate) weren’t enough; let’s change a rule that has existed since players started wearing gloves in the late 1800’s. I’m going to move on now because I’m getting angry even as I sit here and relive the play, which of course proved to be extremely significant in the Indians 2-1 loss. Suffice to say that while I think replay in general is a good thing for baseball (getting the call right is always the end goal), this tinkering and resulting confusion on the field is an unfortunate and unnecessary byproduct.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Danny Salazar started his second game of the season on Thursday night, and he produced one of the most unique stat lines I’ve ever seen from a pitcher, and it gets weirder and weirder the deeper you look at it. On the surface, it’s strange enough; L, 3 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. Recording 10 strikeouts in fewer than 4 IP is something that’s been done exactly one time since 1900, so that’s remarkable in and of itself. But Salazar didn’t record a single traditional out; every batter either struck out, walked or got a hit. The only out recorded other than a strikeout was when Adam Eaton was struck out trying to stretch a single into a double. So Salazar’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) allowed was a “perfect” 1.000. He was somehow both extremely hittable and utterly unhittable at the same time. He gave up two HR and a double on the only three balls that the White Sox put in the air against him, for a 66.7% HR/FB rate. He’s ERA for the game was 9.82, but his xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching, see here for full explanation as to how it is calculated) was 0.48. These stats come from far too small of a sample size to be significant, I’m just bringing them up because it helps illustrate just how strange the outing really was.

It’s easy to see where Salazar got into trouble against the White Sox. Looking at this strikezone plot from innings two through four on Thursday, all of the hits allowed by Salazar except one were pitches left in the middle of the plate and from the mid-thigh to the beltline of the hitter. The lone hit from outside of the strikezone came on a single that Adrian Nieto reached out and slapped through the right side for a seeing-eye single. The double and home runs (indicated by the orange and pink squares on the plot below) were all right down the heart of the plate:

That’s a recipe for disaster, even with stuff as electric as Salazar’s. He threw a couple of quality sliders and splitters, but also left a couple of spinners and hangers up in the zone that got hammered. Those mistake pitches aren’t always going to leave the yard, and sometimes there’s going to be a laser hit right at someone. That didn’t happen on Thursday, so Salazar ended up getting chased after 3 2/3’s. The good news is that Salazar has excellent stuff and can strike out 10+ on any given night. The bad news is that if he continues to locate his pitches in this manner, he’s going to continue to give up way too many HR to be an effective starting pitcher. Salazar is always going to be a guy with a higher than normal pitch count. It takes a lot of pitches to strike guys out, and adding questionable command and several walks to that equation is only going to hurt that much more. It’s way too early to panic about a guy with Salazar’s talent, as evidenced by the 10 K on Thursday. It’s also way too early to pencil him into the #2 spot of the rotation moving forward, as evidenced by the walks and 5 ER on Thursday. Salazar starts are required viewing for me (they were anyway), and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds the next time on the mound. There are adjustments to be made, and I have a feeling that Salazar and Mickey Callaway will be spending plenty of time together prior to his next start in Detroit on Wednesday.

Baseball Prospectus does a “prospect 10-pack” at the beginning of each week. During the season, the 10-pack generally features players who are performing at a high level, but will occasionally look at a highly regarded guy who is struggling. Sometimes the 10-pack has a specific theme, and this is one of those weeks. The BP prospect staff took a look at the players they are most excited to scout this season, and Nick Faleris chose to focus on none other than the Indians 2013 1^st round draft pick, Clint Frazier:

Frazier is on the short list of my favorite amateur players ever scouted, with perhaps the most beautifully violent swing this side of Javier Baez. Over the years he’s shown me a little bit of everything. I’ve seen him run a sub-6.5 sixty and 4.2 home-to-first from the right side. I’ve seen plus-plus arm strength from the outfield (albeit prior to some elbow issues that stuck with him through his senior year at Loganville and first professional summer). I’ve seen him consistently square up the best of his contemporaries through the high school showcase circuit, and I saw him hit 22-plus home runs during a BP session prior to a high school game. Later that evening I saw him hit a ball so far that the second baseman congratulated him as he rounded the bases. Then he homered again. He’s set to ship to the Midwest League early this summer -- how could I not be excited to see what he has in store for me next?

So…yeah. Frazier was one of the only players I didn’t get to see in action this spring, as he was dealing with a minor hamstring issue in Goodyear and the Indians were playing it safe with their million dollar bonus baby. He was walking around the fields, coaching 1B during intersquad games, receiving instruction from coaches on situational stuff and doing some light running on the training fields. I went down there to see him hit though, so needless to say I was a little disappointed in his non-participating status. But he’ll be in Lake County before too long (likely after it warms up a little), and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. He’s got a violent swing and an ultra-aggressive approach, so there’s a chance that professional pitching could exploit that early on and he’ll have to make some adjustments. He’s immensely talented and could move quickly, but he needs to learn how to be a professional baseball player, not just a really good baseball player.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Lindor watch takes a special focus this week, as national prospect guru Jason Parks polled baseball insiders and his own Baseball Prospectus prospect team to see which top prospect shortstop they would choose to build their team around. Chicago Cubs prospect Javier Baez has been lighting the minor leagues on fire, hitting 20 HR in just 54 AA games last season. The Astros took prep SS Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft, and he’s been drawing rave reviews since his debut that year. Oakland prospect Addison Russell is a consensus top-15 prospect in the game and considered a potential force on both sides of the ball. I expected Baez to be the runaway winner of this survey, with Correa coming in second because of his offensive potential and Lindor and Russell to come in 3^rd and 4^th in some order. Boy was I wrong.

Lindor collected six of the ten industry votes to easily carry that poll. He also scored seven of the fourteen BP votes, to finish with 13 of the 24 possible votes. No other SS tallied more than 5 (Baez). I was both a little surprised and extremely excited after reading the article, as all of those that preferred Lindor talked about his superior defense and makeup, and his underrated potential with the bat as well. All agreed that he has the highest floor of any SS prospect in the minors, and has the defensive chops to succeed at the position at the highest level of the game. As Parks himself says about his choice of Lindor:

While I can’t speak for those who cast votes for Lindor over Baez, I can echo the preference and explain my own choice, even if it comes off a bit skewed. I think Javier Baez is the superior prospect, a player who has dazzled me with his bat speed since he signed, and pushed me to the point of Baezmania this spring with his offensive firestorm. But to the specific question being asked, as much as I love Baez and his pornographic offensive potential, the player I would look to build a franchise around is Francisco Lindor, mostly for the reasons that were so aptly articulated by Nick Faleris and Chris Mellen. Give me the guy I can pencil in at shortstop for the next decade who brings near-elite defensive skills to the position, in addition to a switch-hitting profile at the plate with on-base potential and gap power.

As for the industry vote--even though it’s just a small sample of front office opinion—it does speak to the value baseball attaches to premium defenders at premium spots, as well as the intangibles qualities that are sought in a franchise face. While not always documented in specific detail, several of the debates and discussions with industry personnel and prospect team staff centered around the safety and security of Lindor’s profile as compared to the volatility and uncertainty of Baez’s—both in terms of baseball skill and makeup—even though it was universally acknowledged that Baez held the highest ceiling and most impact potential should he maximize his physical tools. Baez has the most “come back to bite you on the ass potential” of anybody in the minors, but when it comes down to it, the majority of people were willing to accept that possibility in favor of a more stable player, despite the lower ceiling.

With the possible exception of catcher, shortstop is the most important defensive position on the field. A spectacular defensive shortstop can offset a lot of offensive deficiencies, something Indians fans should know better than most after having watched Omar Vizquel at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario for so long. Lindor is projected to offer more value with the glove than with the bat, but the bat isn’t going to be lifeless. He’s a switch hitter with a solid approach and a good command of the strike zone, and is filling out to the point where he could have slightly below average power. That’s an incredible prospect, one that I can’t wait to see in an Indians uniform. Oh, and he hit a walk-off HR in the 13^th inning of Friday night’s game, giving him as many HR in 2014 (2) as he hit in all of 2013. I’m going to get to see Lindor in a few days when the RubberDucks travel to Bowie to take on the Baysox, and although I’ve watched him play over a dozen times already, I can’t wait to see what he has in store for me this time out.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Speaking of minor league performances, I was in Frederick, MD this week to see the Carolina Mudcats, and was able to see Dylan Baker make the first A+ start of his career. All Baker did was set down all 18 hitters he faced, hurling 6 perfect innings to earn the victory. Baker’s fastball sat in the 94-96 MPH range with some nice arm-side run, and he flashed a plus curveball and slider as well. He did a really nice job commanding his fastball in the strike zone, getting ahead of hitters all night and inducing weak contact with his offspeed stuff. The first curveball he broke off locked up Frederick’s #3 hitter for a strikeout, and showed tight spin with excellent 11-5 movement. Baker only threw a few changeups during his start, but was clearly working on getting a feel for the pitch as he threw 2-3 in between every inning during his warm-up tosses. Baker was my #25 prospect in this offseason’s countdown, but I hadn’t seen him pitch like he did on Tuesday before. If he keeps throwing 3 potential above-average pitches, he could end up in the top-10 of next year’s list.

Last season’s extremes are already starting to show signs that they’re regressing to the mean, as the Indians 17-2 record against the White Sox last year isn’t going to be repeated in 2014. The White Sox are better in 2014 than they were last year, but there’s also a pretty significant luck factor involved when you win 17 of 19 against one opponent, and that luck is something that varies significantly from season to season. The good news is that the Indians aren’t likely to go 4-15 against the Tigers again this year, with the same caveats applying in that matchup. We’ll get to see pretty soon, as after an off-day tomorrow the Indians travel to the Motor City to renew their rivalry with the Central Division powerhouse Tigers. Will the rivalry be as one-sided as it was in 2013? I don’t think so, and here’s an early chance for the Indians to show the Tigers that it won’t be a cakewalk to the Central Division crown. It’s just a three-game series in a 162 game season, but I think it’s important for the Indians to go into Detroit and come out with a series victory. After what happened last year, the club needs to show both the Tigers and the fans that we won’t see another 4-15 record against the AL Central favorite. 

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