The Lefty Tree

After sitting in the Mezz on Monday night watching Scott Lewis run his scoreless inning total to 14 in his first two starts, the options for the 2009 rotation ran through my head. Once I got past the notion that somewhere in Winter Haven there sits a tree that grows soft-tossing LHP, I got stuck on the idea that the Indians are sitting (somewhat suddenly) on four young LHP who all figure to be in the mix for the back end of the rotation, which means that the Indians have some decisions to make this off-season in terms of those arms. Notably, the Indians need to determine whether the depth that has been deemed to be so important outweighs what looks to be a surplus of similar pitchers that all look to be MLB-ready or somewhere near MLB-ready.

Between Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Lewis, and Dave Huff, the Indians have middle-to-back-end of the rotation options that figure (at this point, at least) to slot into Cleveland and Columbus next year. But it raises a fundamental question that has emerged – which is whether the depth that they’ve been forced to rely on for the past two years needs to go as deep as 9 to 10 pitchers into the organization or, if it comes to throwing their 9th or 10th pitcher, the assumption that the season is likely lost makes some of those arms expendable via trade to fill other needs that figure to exist on the roster.

Before going any further, let’s take a quick look at what the Indians’ rotation figures to look like without any moves being made this off-season, and exactly how deep the arms look to go. As you view the list, realize that the names after #2 are not listed in order of preference, but that Anthony Reyes and Zach Jackson are both out of options and figure to break camp with the team as long as they are deemed to be somewhat valuable to the team and Jake Westbrook’s name is listed where it is with the assumption that he will be healthy and available at some point after the All-Star Break in 2009.
#1 – Lee
#2 – Carmona
#3 – Laffey
#4 – Reyes
#5 – Huff
#6 – Jackson
#7 – Sowers
#8 – Lewis
#9 – Westbrook
That list does not take into account the variables of a healthy Atom Miller (who looks destined for the bullpen) and the mystery that is Chuck Lofgren or the organizational soldiers like Frank Herrmann, Kevin Dixon, and Ryan Edell, nor the high-ceiling pitchers like Kelvin De La Cruz and Hector Rondon who may be a few years away from contributing at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

So the question becomes, is it necessary to truly go THAT deep in starting pitching depth or is the idea that once you get to #9 or #10 (hello, Matt Ginter and Bryan Bullington), the season is more than likely a lost cause and to reasonably expect pitchers that far down in the depth chart to be able to contribute at the MLB level is tantamount to plopping money on the roulette table and hoping that you hit it big one of these times. Certainly a case can be made fairly easily that having at least two arms stashed at AAA to dip into if a need arises on the big league club is fairly important, given the nature of injuries and ineffectiveness when it comes to starters. But if Westbrook truly is thought to be returning after the All-Star Break next year, he would obviously slot into the middle-of-the-rotation and it’s not inconceivable to think that the Indians may be looking to add another starter (one more established than the likes of Laffey, Sowers, Huff, etc.) to the mix, pushing all of those names down another peg.

Which brings it all back to where this started, as Scott Lewis has suddenly thrust himself into the mix on the basis of two starts, causing some to come to the premature conclusion that Lewis “has to be in the rotation…somewhere” for 2009. It’s a premature notion as for years Indians fans have fumed over and over again that “some soft-tossing LHP just up from the minors just baffled the Indians’ hitters” whenever some unknown kid from AAA is promoted to face the Indians and completely shuts them down.
Other foot, meet Scott Lewis.

This is by no means meant to discount what Lewis has accomplished in his first two starts as an Indian, but rather as a caution that unreasonable expectations based on two starts (even if they are a pitcher’s two debut starts) sets a dangerous precedent of what can really be expected. While Lewis has looked VERY good in his two starts, let’s temper that enthusiasm with what we’ve seen happen between 2006and 2008 for Jeremy Sowers and even what a few of the other starters in the mix for 2009 have pulled off this year:
Scott Lewis – 2008 (with Cleveland)
2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP with 8 K, 2 BB in 14 IP over 2 starts

Aaron Laffey – 2008 (from May 4th to May 27th)
3-2, 0.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with 19 K, 7 BB in 34 IP over 5 starts

Anthony Reyes – 2008 (with Cleveland)
2-1, 1.83 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with 15 K, 12 BB in 34 1/3 IP over 6 starts

What does all of that mean?
Mainly that two starts should not guarantee any kind of spot in the 2009 rotation, but that it certainly puts Lewis in the mix…just not much more than the other pitchers.

With that being said, then, it points to two enormous questions going forward for this organization:
As stated above, does the depth that the Indians been forced to rely on for the past two years needs to go as deep as 9 to 10 pitchers into the organization or does the assumption that the season is likely lost once that 9th or 10th organizational starter is on the 25-man make some of those arms expendable via trade to fill other needs that figure to exist on the roster?
As a corollary then, if some of those arms are deemed to be expendable, how heavily should internal scouting reports be weighed against what can be reasonably expected in return for a trade? That is to say, if the Indians’ internal scouting reports say that Scott Lewis’ ceiling is a 5th starter in the Majors and he closes out 2008 in the way he has started it on the parent club, do the Indians throw their scouting reports aside and work off of the assumption that Lewis may project higher in the rotation or do they sell high (relatively speaking) on him as part of a package deal?

Of course, the notion the idea of trading one (or more) of these young arms goes against the idea that a team can never have enough starting pitching because of the unknowns that present themselves throughout the course of a season. To put it another way, what if the Indians trade a pitcher like Sowers or Lewis as part of a package, then find themselves in need of a starter at some point in the season? To that I would say that (assuming that Reyes, Laffey, and even Westbrook figure to be some sort of healthy for 2009) enough arms exist to allow one of these players to be moved…but which one?

Obviously, the cautionary tale of Jair Jurrjens who (though as a 21-year-old was much younger than any of the aforementioned Tribe arms) burst on the scene with the Tigers last year after being promoted from AA and was moved for an “established player” from Atlanta. Now, less than a year later, the Tigers are looking for a SS not named Edgar Renteria for their 2009 team and Jurrjens has turned into the Braves’ ace…as a 22-year-old. It’s an extreme case for sure as most people were surprised when Jurrjens was moved for an aging Renteria, but it underscores the point. When he was traded, Jurrjens had thrown all of 30 2/3 innings above AA and had posted a respectable 4.70 ERA with 13 K to 11 BB. Impressive for a 21-year-old to say the least, but apparently not impressive enough for the Tigers to deem him as “untouchable”, a move that now looks foolhardy given Detroit’s advancing age and dearth of upper level arms.

I suppose that scenario is what the Indians have to avoid and hope (or is it pray) that their scouting reports are correct on these players if one is deemed to be expendable due to the depth on hand. I’m not going to pretend to know what those scouting reports say, but my guess is that they see Sowers as a 5th starter, Laffey as a 4th starter, Huff as a 3rd starter, and Lewis as the great unknown given his limited inning count. Would another team value one of those players in greater terms than the Indians do? And if they do, what would they be willing to part with to acquire one?

All told going into 2009, after Lee and Carmona, I could see Reyes (assuming the Indians aren’t checking Orbitz to make travel plans for him to visit Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham any time soon) in the rotation out of Spring Training as he is out of options and has been successful in his brief time on the Tribe. Along the same lines as Reyes, I could see the Indians carrying Zach Jackson out of Spring Training as the long man/emergency starter as he is also out of options and could provide the mop-up duty role on the parent club while not exposing him to waivers. Before you ask me if I’ve seen Jackson pitch this year, realize that the rationale for him breaking the team out of Goodyear is that the other candidates to be the long man/emergency starter on the Indians all retain options and can be slotted into the rotation in AAA to get them into a rhythm of pitching every five days rather than logging duty in the uncertain role of a long man.

Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot as Laffey, Sowers, Lewis, and Huff (who isn’t even on the 40-man yet) have options remaining and the pitchers who don’t break camp with the Tribe can fill the Columbus rotation with LHP. That is, of course, unless the Indians decide to pluck one of the shiny pieces of fruit off of their Lefty Tree and take it to town this winter as barter.

Lazy Sunday With the End in Sight

With everyone locked up by two football games happening this weekend for Cleveland/Ohio teams, let’s bring it back to Tribe Time on a Lazy Sunday as we’re running out the clock on this 2008 season.
And…we’re off…

Terry Pluto touches on Asdrubal’s emergence since his return from Buffalo and (once again) beats the drum for a “Jhonny to 3B, Asdrubal to SS, find a 2B” solution to the infield hole. I’m not sure if Pluto is so adamant about this simply because he thinks it’s a good idea or if the Indians have intimated to him that the move may be in the works. Quotes like this by The Atomic Wedgie lend credence to the fact that he may be slotting to his right come 2009. Regardless, given what’s available in terms of 2B and 3B this offseason, 2B may be the easier hole to fill.

In a mildly related article, Kenny Rosenthal identifies potential landing spots for 2B Orlando Hudson, listing the Mets or Yankees if either trade their de facto 2B, the Rangers (not sure I get that one), the White Sox, the Rockies, the Cardinals, and…YOUR Cleveland Indians. Rosie also lists Mark Ellis as the “only other quality 2B” on the FA market and points out that Brian Roberts and Dan Uggla are the two 2B most likely to be moved this offseason.
Please Brian Roberts…please Brian Roberts…

Jon Heyman identifies the Marlins as a team who may be compelled to make some moves this offseason as 18 of their players will be eligible for arbitration, and I’m guessing that having a paid attendance of fewer than 600 isn’t exactly helping that revenue stream.
One name on that list – 2B Dan Uggla.
Let me say this again… please Brian Roberts…please Brian Roberts…

Jon Heyman also thinks (in the same piece) that the Angels are readying themselves for a run at a certain Hefty Lefty, which certainly would fit the Left Coast criteria and the offer wouldn’t figure to be short on years or zeroes.

Paul Hoynes has a quick run-down of John Meloan’s first appearance for the Tribe (which some had questioned whether it would ever happen…what with the Indians dead set on seeing that Juan Rincon has nothing left in the tank and that the needle on Masa’s gas tank has broken off because it’s so far below “E”). But back to Meloan, as the Hoynes piece doesn’t do justice to his mid-90’s fastball and a breaking ball (in the low-80’s) that just drops off the table. Obviously one appearance a career does not make, but Meloan looked good, getting two SWINGING third strikes and has the presence on the mound that one would want out of a back-end-of-the-bullpen pitcher.
Then again, so did Ferd Cabrera.

SI.com’s John Donovan identifies the Indians as “spoilers” again, as if this is a new perspective. Can we PLEASE see a September in 2009 when we’re not included in these articles as “spoilers”?

Anthony Castrovince, over at his blog, identified the songs that Indians’ players come out to. Unfortunately, none of them (apparently) read my little exercise in suggestion prior to every year…although Jenny Lew coming out to the theme from the “Dark Knight” is pretty sweet.

Finally, here’s the podcast from this Thursday’s “Smoke Signals” that I do with Minor League guru Tony Lastoria. This week’s show features an in-depth analysis of the arms that may slot themselves into the back end of the Indians’ 2009 rotation as well as getting into the depth that figures to be available in Columbus (remember, that’s the AAA affiliate in 2009), in addition to going deeper into the organization. While we had about 5 topics to hit on, the conversation on starting pitching depth (prompted by Scotty Lew’s debut) lasted nearly the whole hour, with a fascinating interview that Tony did with Jeff Stevens to close it out.

If you need another carrot to listen to it, Steve Buffum (writer of the fabulous B-List over at TCF) makes a surprise phone call to lament the presence of Juan Rincon and Brendan Donnelly on the parent club.

Time for some good old couch time with the Indians’ first pitch mere moments away, followed by something happening on the Lakefront that I dare not mention given the risk of throwing my jinx down E. 9th.

Tomahawks Rounding Third and Heading for Home

With the Indians gently sidling up to measured mediocrity and only about two and a half weeks left in the 2008 Indians’ season, let’s loose the tomahawks in the direction of October and beyond and let ‘em fly:
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While I have done a few updates already pertaining to the principal horses that figure to be “Jockeying for Position” as the season marches on (crazy how that piece is now almost two months old), I thought that it had been about a month since last we saw these numbers and that we would stick with the more pertinent timeframes and splits as opposed to just examining numbers from strictly July, August, or September to date.

Just as a friendly reminder, what I mean by that is picking the specific day when these players started playing every day (or other relevant information) is much more relevant than just picking a random date like July 1 or the All-Star Break that is simply easier to find statistics for.

With that in mind, here are the numbers for the players attempting to work themselves into the 2009 mix with the date that the statistics start indicated:
Kelly Shoppach – Since June 7th (71 games)
.287 BA / .364 OBP / .598 SLG / .962 OPS with 18 HR and 47 RBI in 244 AB
Those numbers have been posted in less than ½ of a season of games and have actually IMPROVED since this little exercise was conducted. Is there any question that Mr. Show Pack is an everyday MLB catcher in anyone’s mind? While his production since hitting the everyday lineup befits that of an All-Star (which he may or may not be able to sustain), Shoppach has established himself as a bona fide option at C for 2009. The question now becomes…for what team?

Ryan Garko – Since June 10th (70 games)
.245 BA / .313 OBP / .334 SLG / .644 OPS with 4 HR and 38 RBI in 257 AB
Again, I’m picking a fairly arbitrary date if only to show how he’s compared against his “competition” in the C/1B battle…which is not good for the man who runs like a refrigerator is attached to his back. Garko’s season has been mired in a level below mediocrity since…well, since the end of May as his OPS hasn’t sniffed the north side of .800 since April 24th. When your Slugging Percentage is a poor number for On Base Percentage and your overall line approaches the “Jason Tyner Line” (higher OBP than SLG…hat tip to Steve Buffum), you should make sure that your affairs are in order. Suffice it to say, a 27-year-old base clogger who is a defensive liability who made it to MLB on the basis of his high OBP in the minors, then posts an OPS of .693 from a corner infield position is not long for an everyday job in MLB.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Since July 18th (47 games)
.310 BA / .395 OBP / .448 SLG / .843 OPS with 3 HR and 22 RBI in 145 AB
Welcome back to the parent club’s plans Asdrubal…if you ever really left them. Nice to see this rebound since Cabrera spent an extended period of time, particularly when the timeframe nearly matches the 52 games he spent topside before being sent down at the beginning of June. Compare the numbers above to what he contributed prior to his demotion (.184 BA / .282 OBP / .247 SLG / .529 OPS line over 52 games) and realize that the stint in Buffalo seems to have done the trick to allow Asdrubal to get past that “adjustment period”.

Andy Marte – Since July 5th (45 games)
.236 BA / .281 OBP / .369 SLG / .650 OPS with 3 HR and 13 RBI in 157 AB
Andy…um, I guess it’s been nice knowing you. When the GM of the Indians says that the team’s greatest need (beyond the bullpen) is an infielder and mentions, specifically, the position you play as a team weakness – that’s a pretty good indication that you are not in the team’s plans going forward. So, if you haven’t gotten the clues from being pinch-hit for at EVERY possible moment or that you lose playing time to Jamey Carroll, count Shapiro going on the record (with no surprising news, just definite statements) that 3B needs to be addressed as the nail in your coffin as an Indian.

The BLC Splits
Vs. RHP
.303 BA / .399 OBP / .547 SLG / .946 OPS with 7 HR and 37 RBI in 201 AB
Vs. LHP
.276 BA / .354 OBP / .448 SLG / .802 OPS with 2 HR and 8 RBI in 58 AB
Again, since Choo has played pretty regularly since returning from TJ surgery, the more relevant numbers to examine would be his numbers against LHP and RHP as Choo has long posted significantly better numbers versus RHP than he has against LHP. And here’s where we get to the most promising part of the exercise as The BLC’s numbers against LHP (though admittedly in a small sample size) have merited a discussion to be started if Choo is the everyday RF next year, regardless of which arm the starting pitcher throws with. Given the lineup’s relative lack of LHP (it’s Grady and Hafner), and particularly at the bottom of the order (yes, I know Victor and Asdrubal are switch hitters), Choo’s presence in the everyday 2009 lineup is looking more and more like a certainty. When you factor in that he’s still not that far removed from TJ surgery, Choo is the player (along with Shoppach) who has taken this “audition” and run with it. Now if he could only take better routes to balls…

Franklin Delano Gutierrez – The Two-Term OF
Opening Day to July 18th (76 games)
.215 BA / .263 OBP / .313 SLG / .576 OPS with 3 HR and 18 RBI in 214 AB
July 19th to Present (40 games)
.266 BA / .327 OBP / .483 SLG / .810 OPS with 5 HR and 20 RBI in 143 AB
Since his splits are equally lousy (.644 OPS vs. RHP, .754 OPS vs. LHP), we’ll at least try to make something positive out of Frank the Tank’s year and pick the date when his OPS began a slow climb to relative mediocrity. July 19th is that day as he has seen his OPS rise from the low-water mark of .576 prior to that day to where it sits today at .670. What are we to make of him suddenly hitting at respectable levels after miring for nearly half the season? Mainly that counting on him to be an everyday OF for next year would not be a good idea as his usefulness may be best served as a 4th OF/defensive replacement or as trade bait to a team that needs a phenomenal (and I do mean PHENOMENAL) defensive CF, but is able to put up with what will amount to his maturation as a hitter or accepting him for what he is as a fixture in the lineup.

The Ben Francisco Treat – A Tale of Two Bens
From Call-Up to June 4th (29 games)
.346 BA / .385 OBP / .551 SLG / .936 OPS with 3 HR and 17 RBI in 107 AB
From June 5th to present (78 games)
.253 BA / .322 OBP / .416 SLG / .738 OPS with 11 HR and 34 RBI in 293 AB
Again, since The Frisco Kid has essentially played every day since being recalled from Buffalo, it’s better to look at his numbers from the time he joined the parent club in a blaze of glory to what he’s done since. June 4th/5th is a rather arbitrary time to pick, in that the only point of reference is that June 4th represented his high-water mark for OPS on the season (.927). That being said, after his quick emergence, Francisco has settled into average to below average numbers in the 76 games since he crested in early June, which leads me to believe that the second set of numbers are a better representation of what the Indians could reasonably expect from Francisco for 2009. Whether those numbers merit a spot in the everyday lineup is certainly up for debate, but one thing isn’t – if you see BenFran in the #3 hole in 2009, something has gone horribly, inexorably wrong and I’ll be writing the exact same piece at this time next year.

Things are starting to sort themselves out and the waters that once looked so muddy are beginning to clear as some players (Shoppach, Cabrera, and Choo) have thrust themselves into the mix for 2009 while the future of others (Garko, Gutierrez, Marte) are on much more tenuous footing than when the season dawned.
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After watching the brilliant debut of Scott Lewis last night (a night after watching some guy in a Jeremy Sowers uniform baffle Baltimore hitters), is anyone else blown away by seeing these young guys effectively make use of the “Cliff Lee Playbook for Success”?

Locate your fastball, change speeds, change eye levels, and throw in the occasional breaking ball to keep hitters guessing…am I missing anything? We’ve now seen THREE guys who top out in the low-90’s with their fastball (and I don’t think Lewis touched 90 MPH last night) pitch effectively in the past week.

Obviously, we’ve seen Lee do it all year – just putting the ball where he wants to – but Scott Lewis throwing 8 innings of shutout baseball? Who saw this one coming? And is anyone else a more than a little surprised by what seems to be a stable of LHP on the cusp for the Tribe?

Add Scotty Lew (or would it be “Hang On, SLewi” to play off of his OSU affiliation) to Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and Dave Huff as fodder for the back end of the rotation next year. Throw in the intrigue of the excess of what seem to be similarly skilled pitchers into the mix and a couple of bargaining chips for the offseason may be emerging.
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To that end, did anyone else dream a little dream like I did regarding a fictional conversation that could (hopefully) have taken place between the tempestuous Orioles’ owner Peter Angelos, Orioles’ President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, and Orioles’ Executive VP of Baseball Operations Mike Flanagan after Wednesday’s game:

Angelos: “Who are these two lefties with this great control rolling through our lineup? Why do you two only give me guys that you say have ‘great arms’ but end up leading the world in HBP?”
McPhail: “That would be Jeremy Sowers on Tuesday and Scott Lewis on Wednesday…they’re young, soft-tossing LHP who figure to be back-end-of-the-rotation pitchers for the Indians.”
Angelos: “Back-end my eye, those guys could front any rotation in the League for the next 5 years. In fact, let’s make that rotation ours…get these two in Baltimore for next year. We’ll be set up like we were in the 1970’s and 1980’s with pitching. Remember those days, Flanny?”
Flanagan: “I do, sir, but you’re overestimating the value of these two. And it’s not like the Indians are going to want to part with two young pitchers for nothing.”
Angelos: “Then give them Markakis. He’s had a good year…sell high on him, right?”
McPhail: “Sell high? You’re not serious are you, sir?”
Angelos: “Damn right I am…I need these two arms in our organization, whatever it costs us?”
Flanagan: “But, sir…”
Angelos: “That’s not a suggestion, that’s an order from the Greek god himself. Oh, and see if they’ll throw in that Garko kid. I read in The Sun this morning that Millar is a Free Agent after this year and I like the cut of that Garko kid’s jib.”
McPhail: “Sir, maybe you should sleep on this…”
Angelos: “To hell with that, you always say that…I want these three players. Dangle Roberts out there for them – that should get it done.”
Flanagan: “Wait, Markakis AND Roberts for Sowers, Lewis, and GARKO?!?”
Angelos: “From your lips to me reading it in The Sun at some point this winter online aboard my yacht in the Mediterranean, Flanny. In fact, I’m off to The Motherland right now to soak in that Grecian sun until Spring Training starts. I’m not going to be reachable, so let’s make this deal the centerpiece of our offseason.”

And…scene.
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Apropos of nothing Tribe-related, with the TV Fall Season on the horizon, I thought I'd do a little DVReview to share with people I assume to be very similar to me to see what I’m missing out on and to get the DVR rolling. That is to say, here are the TV shows that are on “Record on This Channel at Any Time” that are scheduled to start soon or have started recently:
The Givens
Entourage
The Office
30 Rock
How I Met Your Mother

Have Been Told to Give Them a Shot
Chuck
Life (a t-bone fave)
Fringe (anything with the words “from the BLANK that brought you ‘Lost’” gets a look)

The DiaBride’s List
Grey’s Anatomy
ER
Brothers & Sisters
House
(She loves her some medical dramas, doesn’t she?)

Now, among you folks that love dry humor and intelligent storytelling while despising formulaic shows and being confused by CBS’ success (more specifically, the “CSI” phenomenon), let’s hear it…what am I missing?

Because right now, it looks like the “Arrested Development” DVD’s are going to get a work out awfully soon after the end of baseball season.
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Finally, a while back I professed that I was looking for a smart looking jersey to sport to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and (despite my proclamations otherwise) I do not have a closet full of “THE BLC” or “FRANK THE TANK” or “LE PRONQUE” or “FAUSTASTIC” jerseys.

I do, however, have this one thanks to The DiaBride being the best in the biz:
Boom.

While an 81-81 season certainly isn’t what most of us had in mind when the season started, it’s a far cry from the days of 16 days below .500 with your aCCe headed to Wisconsin. The race for .500 is on…something to shoot for, I suppose.

The Elephant in the Room

As Travis Hafner makes his return to the Indians’ lineup tonight and with most eyes already cast in the direction of 2009, is it time to identify that huge Half Project/Half Elephant that’s been taking up so much space in everyone’s head? Can the issue of Travis Hafner’s health and his importance to the Indians’ 2009 campaign FINALLY be broached?

On the shelf since May 30th (and allegedly playing at a capacity far below 100% before then), Hafner returns the parent club tonight after a few brief stops in the minors to rehab his mysterious shoulder injury. While the news is welcome, it is accompanied by the unsettling news that, after over 3 months of rest and attempts to rebuild strength in his shoulder, he is still unable to play everyday and will probably play every other game as he attempts to continue to return his shoulder to 100%...if that is even a possibility anymore.

Does anyone find this more than a little disconcerting?
He’s still just the DH, right?
He’s not playing the field, right…just swinging the bat?

And after (oh, I don’t know…I’ll just throw a range of numbers out there) 50 to 75 swings on a given night, his shoulder is in SUCH bad shape that he has to rest it for a full day afterwards? Can we ever find out what in the world is going on in that right shoulder – that surgery was not recommended but after months of inactivity and strength-building – that he’s still unable to swing a bat (which is his only real physical job requirement) for two consecutive days?

Allegedly, he’s come a long way back from his placement on the DL in terms of strength and mobility, but if it’s taken him this long and his shoulder is still this weak, what are we to expect for 2009?

I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the odds are pretty good that “this guy” may have made his final appearance in a Tribe uniform…you may remember him fondly as Pronk:
2004 season
.311 BA / .410 OBP / .583 SLG / .993 OPS with 28 HR and 109 RBI over 140 games

2005 season
.305 BA / .408 OBP / .595 SLG / 1.003 OPS with 33 HR and 108 RBI over 137 games

2006 season
.308 BA / .439 OBP / .659 SLG / 1.098 OPS with 42 HR and 117 RBI over 129 games

Look at those numbers and don’t you just hear Archie and Edith singing “Those Were the Days”?
Even Pronk’s “worst” season among those three would put him 2nd in the AL in OPS this year, behind only The Game Boy. Did we appreciate that while it was happening or did we simply assume that this ridiculously consistent production would continue for a few more seasons…at least? I tend to think the latter, which brings us to where we stand today, wondering where Pronk has gone and when the cliff that he seems to have fallen off appeared before him. To that end, let’s go to the numbers:
2007 season
.266 BA / .385 OBP / .451 SLG / .836 OPS with 24 HR and 100 RBI over 152 games

Meh, right?
No, here’s the problem:
2007 from Opening Day to May 2nd
.337 BA / .487 OBP / .581 SLG / 1.068 OPS with 6 HR and 19 RBI over 24 games
May 3rd until End of Season
.253 BA / .364 OBP / .427 SLG / .791 OPS with 18 HR and 81 RBI over 128 games

Nearly ¼ of his HR and RBI totals came from about 15% of the games he played last year as his OPS just spiraled downward as the year wore on. But it didn’t stop there as the fears of some were drastically realized this year:
2008 season
.217 BA / .326 OBP / .350 SLG / .676 OPS with 4 HR and 22 RBI in 46 games

Now how much of this had to do with the “Incredible Shrinking Shoulder” and distractions that may have stemmed from his father’s battle with cancer is up in the air as we’re obviously not between Hafner’s ears and his medical records seem to be on par with the original copy of The Colonel’s recipe of 11 herbs and spices. But the drop-off is significant and very disturbing – particularly for a team that owes him $49M in guaranteed money over the next 4 years.

And herein lies the main problem – the Indians have been built to rely on production from their DH, with the idea that Hafner would be providing that middle-of-the-order pop. The DH “position” in 2008 for the Indians has posted a .735 OPS, which puts them 10th among the 14 teams in the AL. This after getting the 4th most production from their DH “position” last year (.870 OPS), the most production from the “position” in 2006 (1.016 OPS), and the second most in 2005 (.954 OPS) and 2004 (.953 OPS).

If Hafner is not able to rediscover his inner Pronk or is unable to come anywhere close to it, the Indians could very seriously be looking at a Mike Sweeney-KC Royals situation from a few years ago going forward. By that I mean there would too much money tied up (in a limited payroll) on a player that either is unable to stay healthy enough to contribute or that the player is enough of an albatross on the team’s finances that he is trotted out in the lineup, lack of production be damned – just as Mike Sweeney’s 5-year, $55M deal from 2003 to 2007 crippled the Royals’ payroll as he contributed all of 74 HR over those 5 years, during which he averaged 94 games per season. And this when Sweeney was taking up as much as 29.8% of the team’s total payroll (as he did in 2005) and an average of 22.9% of the paychecks cashed by Royals’ players over those 5 years!

Even if Hafner is able to stay healthy and relatively productive for 2/3 of the game, the amount of money that he’s owed by the organization turns him from a Half Project/Half Donkey into a Half Project/Half Albatross…call him Prolbatross. Non-production from such a giant percentage of the perceived payroll going forward then handcuffs the Indians from the standpoint that they’re either forced to keep an unproductive Hafner in the lineup or are severely limited as to what they can add because of the money owed to Hafner in the chance that his injuries become more frequent and more debilitating.

Now, of course, this team without Hafner in the lineup does have some potential, and it’s actually interesting to compare how the offense fared with Hafner on the team against how the offense produced after his last game on May 25th:
Production of 2008 team with Hafner
.232 BA / .313 OBP / .362 SLG / .675 OPS, averaging 4.04 runs per game over 50 games

Production of 2008 team without Hafner
.273 BA / .346 OBP / .450 SLG / .796 OPS, averaging 5.27 runs per game over 92 games

The second set of numbers is the important one to look at here as it represents a fair to decent offense, but certainly not the offense of a contender. Of course, factors other than Hafner were in play during those two sets of games (Victor’s injury, Shoppach’s emergence, Peralta’s down-then-up season, etc.), but I think it underscores how important a healthy AND productive Hafner is to this team for next year.

If Hafner is able to augment Sizemore, Victor, and Peralta in the lineup, the middle of the order gains some stability and stretches the production further down the lineup as the likes of Choo and perhaps Francisco can slot lower in the lineup. Even if the production from Pronk doesn’t approach Pronkian levels (and really the closest we may ever see to a return of “Pronk” may come from Virginia’s 11th District), it’s vital for the team to get something from Hafner. Because if Hafner’s inexplicable shoulder injury (or whatever has caused his lemming-like descent) carries over into 2009, his ineffectiveness or absence is going to play a large role in the 2009 offense being merely adequate and thinner, particularly in the middle of the lineup.

Due to the way the offense is designed (which is to rely on production from DH) and the fiscal decisions that tied so much money to said DH, one thing has become obvious as we all welcome Hafner back to the lineup with cautious optimism and with bated breath – a lot of what is possible in 2009 sits on Hafner’s shoulders…and one in particular.

Lazy Sunday, Tailgate Edition

When CC was sent to Milwaukee, I didn’t think that meant he was taking Paul with him. Apparently it did, as PC is there yet AGAIN, leaving you to suffer with T-Bone for your Lazy Sunday Tailgate Edition.

As I post this at 7:19 a.m., I’m a few minutes away from heading down to “The Pit” for some Brownies opening week tailgate festivities. I do so hoping the Eaton HQ construction hasn’t taken up too much of The Pit, as was rumored at the Treehouse yesterday afternoon following some rec league coed touch football action. Yes, we’re tailgating at 8am for a 4:15pm start. Probably not the smartest idea, but what can you do?

Here’s your Lazy reading material, with no method to the madness…

In case you missed it, Reyes was pulled after three innings Friday night due to “right elbow soreness.” It’s not yet known if he’ll be back or shut down for the year. Scott Lewis could get a look as a result.

Mr. Pluto touches on Reyes possibly turning into our Guthrie and the BLC.

The worst kept secret in town made one step closer to being official, as the Tribe ended their 14-year relationship with Buffalo as their AAA club. Expect Columbus to be the official new home of our AAA operations by the end of the month.

The Lake County Captains will be moving from the South Atlantic League to the Midwest League in 2010 because it will just make more sense for them to be there.

And lastly in minor league news, the Tribe needed the Aeros to advance, so Pronk’s rehab assignment took him to Akron for the Eastern League playoffs. What does he do? Granny on Friday to lead the Aeros to a 6-2 win, then a two-run bomb Saturday in the series clincher against Bowie.

If I’m reading this right, if the Brewers do not make the playoffs, Milwaukee gets to decide the PTBNL in the CC trade???

Talk of going to a six-man staff for the rest of the year was put to rest when Aaron Laffey was shelved for the rest of the season with an “inflamed elbow.” Conspiracy theorists would suggest the FO wanted to make his MLB service time come to a screeching halt in order to delay his free agency by an offseason, as has been mentioned by Paul multiple times in the past few weeks.

SuperSizemore was named the team’s winner of the Clemente Award, which is awarded to a player on each MLB squad who displays not only mad skillz but also exceptional sportsmanship and community involvement. Go here to vote Grady the overall league winner. Look around on that vote and notice a few former Wahoos were also winners, even some guy in Cincinnati who seemed to show the exact opposite traits of the award while sporting a Tribe uni.

Over at The Cleveland Fan, John Hnat took the words right out of my mouth when it came to Bill Livingston somehow turning CC’s “thank you” to the fans into something bad.

Not to be outdone by Livingston, Bud Shaw feels that rather than let Cliff’s 20^th get you all warm and fuzzy inside, he’d rather predict gloom and doom in 2011 and a big payday elsewhere.

In addition to win 20, Cliff also won the AL Pitcher of the Month, which he also won in April. Charlie Nagy also won it twice in 1996.

Jeff Passan thinks Cliff should make some room on his mantle for some hardware.

Westbrook surgery update, and no, not the Tommy John surgery, the HIP surgery.

Monday marks a sad day, as the BoSox will break the Jacobs Field sellout streak of 455.

The WWL’s Jonah Keri thinks the Tribe could play the role of spoiler these last few weeks.

Jason Stark’s latest rumblings touches on what if CC stayed, Anthony Reyes, and the Lee for Quentin rumors this past offseason.

Feel good story of the week: San Fran rookie Scott McClain hitting his first major league homer… at the age of THIRTY SIX.

Also in San Fran, their backup shortstop is selling his art for charity.

OK, that should keep you busy until the Road to the Cy Young continues at 2:10pm with Cliff going for win 21, immediately followed at 4:15pm by the Road to Tampa, for as Tony Rizzo declared on The Really Big Show this week… SEE YOU AT THE SUPER BOWL BABY!

HERE WE GO BROWNIES, HERE WE GO, WOOF, WOOF!!!

Tomahawks with DJ and Hawk

As the rain falls on the shores of Lake Michigan, it looks like a charter fishing trip out of the Milwaukee Marina may fall by the wayside (unless, as “Captain Mark” says, we would enjoy not catching any fish while soldiering through 4 to 6 foot whitecaps).
So, with some time suddenly on my hands, let’s release some t-hawks:
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One of the positives of having the Indians play the White Sox and the game being broadcast on WGN while one is out of town is that Tribe fans not able to sync up with STO are able to watch the Erie Warriors in live on TV. That being said, the fact that the game is on WGN just about destroys all positives that seemed possible.
How can this be, you ask, if you’re able to catch the Tribe on TV?
As out- of-towners (and particularly Chicagoans) are aware, the broadcasting team of “Hawk” (Ken Harrelson) and “DJ” (Darren Jackson) who occupy the WGN booth ruin any possibility of enjoying a baseball game with their inane comments that seem to be directed to “young players” on the “right way to play the game”, blatant ChiSox cheerleading, and general lack of knowledge concerning baseball.

Some snippets caught during Wednesday’s game from The Hawk and DJ:
Jeremy Sowers’ greatest attribute as a pitcher is his “courage” because he lacks any kind of talent and the fact that he was a 1st round draft pick baffled them. His 5 K were merely a result of Home Plate Umpire James Hoye giving Sowers’ the outside corner as every called strike was met with a “he thought it caught the outside corner…I guess.” No mention was made on the same strike zone helping Javier Vazquez, whose 5 K came from virtue of his allegedly overpowering Tribe hitters. They also decided that the radar gun in Progressive Field was wrong because there was no way that Sowers’ fastball was sitting at 91 MPH if the White Sox hitters couldn’t hit it. He also, according to them, doesn’t throw a change-up…a fact, of course, rebutted by FanGraphs, which tells us that nearly 14% of Sowers’ pitches this year have been change-ups.

On a related note, Vazquez has the 2nd best “stuff” for a pitcher with more than 100 career wins and 100 career losses in the history of MLB. In case you were wondering, Nolan Ryan had the best “stuff” in the category of 100-100 pitchers…and Nolan Ryan once hit Harrelson in the neck in Spring Training. That, by the by, was a three inning discussion, with little discourse not pertaining to Ryan, despite both Vazquez and Sowers being perfect through the first few innings.

The White Sox announcers feel that Sizemore is the best player on the Indians, with Shin-Soo Choo closing that gap VERY quickly, given that Choo is the most “dangerous” player on the Cleveland team and a reminder that they do “have some talent over there.”

Hawk followed up his call of Jhonny Peralta’s 2-run double with a “Damn!” No, seriously, I rewound the DVR four times and had two other people verify that I actually just heard the announcer scream an epithet after the opposing team scored runs.

Cleveland is, according to Harrelson, the world’s “largest fire hazard”…an apparent attempt to remind everyone that the Cuyahoga River caught fire a few decades ago.

Without getting too deep into the “good guys/bad guys” or “we/them/us” absurdity that peppers all of their comments because I know that this has been happening for years, the fact that neither refers to a White Sox player by his last name (and I do mean ever) is sickening. Hearing “A.J” and “Paulie” from time to time is one thing as it’s not uncommon for announcers to refer to established players in familiar terms (though it would be nice to mix in a last name now and then to attain some semblance of professionalism), but when the announcers are saying “Atta boy, Josh” when youngster Josh Fields gets a hit or hearing “Go get it, Brian” when a ball is struck towards Brian Anderson in CF is beyond annoying. Maybe people in Chicago like this or don’t mind it, but my brother-in-law watching the game with me (who lives in Denver and is more of a football/hockey guy than he is a baseball guy) sat there with me as our mouths hung agape, shocked at what we were hearing from the announcers, without even an attempt at even-handedness or impartiality.

I know that some announcers come off as “homers” (and Tom Hamilton could certainly come off that way from time to time) and this is not a new topic as I know that plenty of comments (particularly from those currently residing in The Windy City) have been shared regarding everyone’s “favorite” Hawk/DJ stories, but it is appalling to go from watching a Brewers’ game on FSN Wisconsin, with their solid and insightful broadcasters who actually describe game action, to go to the WGN feed of a White Sox game that only seems to be lacking pom-poms. All told, I know I’m not revealing anything new here, but Wednesday served as a reminder to me what an embarrassment WGN broadcast is and how it has devolved into what almost sounds like a “Saturday Night Live” satire.
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Did anyone notice that reliever Jonathan Meloan, who was sometimes referred to as “Jon” while in LA, is suddenly being referred to as “John” as he was included in the September call-ups? I’m not sure why I find this fascinating, but I’m just not sure how an “H” appears out of nowhere, unless Meloan’s locker is next to a certain SS, who has already rubbed off on him.
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Want an infuriating fact to dwell upon?
Even if you don’t, here it comes:
AL Central Interleague Records (Overall Records)
Chicago: 12-6 (78-61)
Minnesota: 14-4 (77-62)
Cleveland: 6-12 (67-71)
Detroit: 13-5 (67-72)
Kansas City: 13-5 (58-79)

So while the rest of the AL Central got fat on Interleague play, the Indians lost the opportunity (and if you don’t remember, it came at the time that the season fell apart) to take advantage of a soft part of their schedule.
How soft?
Indians’ Interleague Opponents’ Overall Records
Cincinnati: 61-78
Los Angeles: 70-70
Colorado: 66-75
San Francisco: 60-79
San Diego: 53-86
So, against the dregs of the NL, the Indians’ dropped 12 of 18.

Turning that record into matching even the 2nd lowest record among AL Central compatriots in Interleague play (the White Sox are 12-6) is a 6 game turnaround that would put the Indians at 73-65, or 4.5 games back. I know that there are a lot of these things that can be played with “what-ifs” regarding certain games, but this Interleague one is the factor that just sticks in my craw and nauseates me as it shows how important each game is and how timing really is everything in baseball.
Remember this as Interleague play loomed?
Oh well.
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Spending Monday afternoon at Wrigley Field, in the midst of a playoff race, reminded me how fun it is to attend meaningful baseball games in September and just how badly I want the Indians to get back to playing for more than just being the “spoiler” next year.

The game also reminded me how fun Wrigleyville is and what gallons of Old Style does to one’s internal organs, even days after the fact.
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Finally, anyone else think this would be a good time for Jamey Carroll to address the team and bring some of that magic from the Rockies’ September of a year ago to the Tribe?

I know it’s too little, too late…but with the White Sox and Twins scuffling and 10 games against the Royals and Orioles on the horizon (and yes, I know about the Mariners series), a man can still dream can’t he?

Twinny Twin Twin

With all of the love being bestowed upon Clifton Phifer Lee (and deservedly so) in the wake of his 20th win, as Gaylord Perry’s name gets more run than it has since his HOF induction, and with the probability of the Indians netting their 2nd Cy Young in as many years after a bit of a drought, let’s take a moment to appreciate what C.P. Lee has accomplished just one year after his disastrous 2007 campaign.

I’m not going to get into how absurdly awful Lee’s 2007 was, but the fact that he was left off the postseason roster last year is a pretty good indication of where he was in the organization’s pecking order at the end of 2007. And lest anyone forget, Lee was in a dogfight for the 5th spot in the rotation with Aaron Laffey (who didn’t throw strikes in Winter Haven) and Jeremy Sowers when the team spent its final days in Florida. How long ago does that feel today, as Lee’s 20th victory is a SportsCenter staple and it’s not a stretch to say that the Cy Young Award engraver is practicing his double f’s and double e’s.

Truthfully, as I sit here in the land of the “one-hitter”, where folks in Milwaukee are somehow convinced that CC will sweep both the NL Cy Young AND the NL MVP, it’s hard not to have a bitter edge as the Indians (had their season not hit the commode, for various reasons) started the season with CC and Lee occupying 40% of their rotation. Those two should be providing the one-two punch that the Indians utilized in riding Sabathia and Carmona down the stretch last year to another playoff berth.

Nevertheless, what’s done is done and in addition to figuring who fits where for 2009, the Indians’ season has been reduced to lauding individual accomplishments and milestones. So, with a 30-30 man already in the clubhouse, the Indians have a 20-game winner to celebrate…and celebrate they should.

A celebration is in order to acknowledge what Lee has put together this year, which is nothing short of astounding:
20-2, 2.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 27 BB in 194 1/3 IP over 27 games

Look at those numbers again and you see Lee AVERAGING more than 7 IP per start with over 5 ½ K to ever BB over those 27 games. How good has Lee been in comparison to the rest of the Indians’ starters?
I know that Wins is an arbitrary statistic, with far better measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness out there, but this is how the win totals of the Indians’ starters look on the season:
Lee – 20
Byrd – 7
Carmona – 7
Sabathia – 6
Laffey – 5
Sowers – 2
Reyes – 2
Westbrook – 1
Ginter – 1
The Indians’ starters have 51 wins this year…and Lee has 20 of them!
Seeing as how Lee has started 27 of the 136 games (19.8% of the games) and is responsible for nearly 40% of the victories that starters have notched blows the mind.

To have 20 wins on a team that has 66 games total is a mind-blowing statistic, but go further and examine the five games that he started and received a no-decision:
May 12 vs. Toronto – 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 5 K, 2 BB (Indians lost 3-0 when Betancourt gave up 3 in the 10th)

June 14 vs. San Diego – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 6 K, 0 BB (Indians lost 8-3 with Kouzmanoff GS in the 10th)

June 20 vs. Los Angeles – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 1 BB (Indians won 6-4 in 10 after a JoeBo BS in 9th)

July 1 vs. Chicago – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 1 BB (Indians lost 3-2 with JoeBo BS in 10th)

July 30 vs. Detroit – 5 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 5 KK, 0 BB (Indians lost 14-12 in a shoot-out)
That’s it…those are his 5 no decisions, 4 of which include blown saves or bullpen blow-ups.

He’s given up 4 ER or more in FIVE of his 27 starts and has allowed ZERO ER in eight of his starts!
I could just go on and on about the season he’s put together – the fact that he leads all starters in the AL in ERA, in Quality Starts, is second in K/BB, is third in WHIP, and has held opponents to a .602 OPS (again, 2nd best in the AL among starters).

But to me, Lee’s 2008 is the surprise that nobody saw coming, the reclamation of a career that seemed (not too long ago) to be on the brink of derailment, a bright ray of sunshine in an otherwise cloudy season. And for those who had written him off (present company included) or are quick to call the Indians’ 2008 season a total loss or the first step in a downward descent, it’s a reminder that hope does spring eternal and that anything is possible in this crazy game of baseball – Cliff Lee’s 20th victory just proved it again.

Lazy Sunday in Sconnie

Betwixt a trip to Madison yesterday for the Badgers’ football game against Akron (and, no, I couldn’t answer the question of why they are the Zips and why the Zips’ mascot is a kangaroo…unless there are kangaroos in Akron that I’m unaware of and the guess from my father-in-law that Zip Codes were invented in Akron sounds a little made up) and a trip to Wrigley tomorrow for some day baseball, it’s time for a Lazy Sunday from the satellite office in Milwaukee.

In case you were wondering, I’m not up here for Harley Fest – although the site of tens of thousands of motorcycles and the bikers that ride them is one of the more unbelievable sights I can imagine.
Nevertheless, we’re off:

Terry Pluto reports that the organization is approaching the OF situation about the way that I have been laying out in the past few weeks, with Francisco and Chootierrez handling the corners and the addition coming in the infield. All told, this is the layout that makes the most sense if you’re prioritizing needs as Franchootierrez (yeah, I just went there) has certainly shown more than Marte and Barfield while in Cleveland.

Pluto also points out that the Indians may be looking for a “quick fix” at 1B for next year because of the struggles of Garko and because it’s likely that Victor will stay the Catcher. While that is certainly possible, and 1B are easier to find on the FA market than most other positions, what about pitting LaPorta and Garko against each other for 1B in Goodyear? If the Indians REALLY think that the OF positions are taken care of and that 1B is a problem…um, I think there’s this guy that we just traded for who’s supposed to be a near-MLB-ready impact bat who can either play LF or 1B.
So, the WangBanger moves to his natural position of 1B, right?
If the team wants to give Garko one last shot (at mediocrity) and start LaPorta in Columbus, with the idea that they can move him up like the Brewers did with Ryan Braun last year, so be it. But the way that these positions look to be shaking out, LaPorta with a 1B glove looks like a surer bet than the idea of him patrolling the OF.

Finally, Pluto hits on the players acquired for Lacey Cake, as both Bones Meloan and Carlos Santana have found immediate success in the Indians’ organization. Does anyone else think that the Blake trade is going to be looked at in the same fond terms that the Colon deal is, say two years from now…if not sooner?

Tony Lastoria hits on some of the MVP hardware being bestowed upon some of the youngsters with Beau Mills winning the MVP in the Carolina League and the aforementioned Carlos Santana winning the MVP in the California League (despite the fact that he hasn’t played for Inland Empire in a MONTH). Throw those two, presumably, on the Akron team for next year along with Nicky Weglarz and Canal Park could certainly see some offensive fireworks all season…except, of course, when Hector Rondon pitches.
By the way, look at that picture of Beau Mills in the piece again.
Do you think that Mills could get a girl like Giselle Bundchen, just like his identical brother?

David Briggs over at TBN’s The Inside Pitch has a quick blurb on the elephant in the room, the shoulder of one Mr. Travis Hafner, from Buffalo. I’ll probably have something on this later this week, but this Hafner thing (he can’t play consecutive games…at DH?) is turning into one of the biggest things to watch (if it wasn’t already) as the season plays out. With the return of Victor, one can’t help but be reminded that The Atomic Wedgie said that he wanted BOTH Vic and Hafner to log some AB in Cleveland this year so they weren’t going into 2009 without some MLB plate appearances under their belt. This “news” that Hafner’s shoulder remains balky, with little strain being put on it and no “official diagnosis” from the club…well, it doesn’t look good.

Also from TBN, Mike Harrington thinks that Aaron Laffey, Rich Rundles, Jeff Weaver, John Meloan and Tom Mastny are all coming topside when rosters expand. Remember that Laffey probably won’t get called up until next week, or later, as his accumulated service time is right on the cusp of him potentially being a FA a full year later if he’s kept down in the minors for another week or so.

Ken Rosenthal thinks that the GM carousel will be going at top speed this offseason, so don’t be surprised when Tribe Assistant GM Chris Antonetti’s name comes up in connection with a number of these looming openings. Despite the struggles of 2008, here’s hoping that the “deal” that was agreed upon last year when the Cardinals courted Antonetti is still in place (or even enhanced) to keep the chain of command in place for the Tribe and the heir apparent on the North Coast.

Finally, with a trip to the North Side of Chicago happening tomorrow, here’s a great piece by one of my favorites, Joe Posnanski, in his maiden voyage on SI.com regarding how the Cubbies may not be as universally loved as everyone seems to think. As an aside here, with the Yankees and perhaps even the Red Sox not making the playoffs, does anyone else sense that the Cubs are going to be the team that TV execs and the folks at Bristol are preparing to shove down our throats this postseason?

If you thought the Red Sox fans made a quick transition from long-suffering to insufferable, just wait to see what happens to Cubs’ fans, with an assist from the Worldwide Leader who would cover a Cubs’ WS victory with the same fervor as a certain “retired” QB who ends up in NYC. Nobody turns a good story into an annoyance like ESPN…and the Cubs’ story is just sitting there, waiting for them.

It’s not going to stop me from enjoying some Old Style tomorrow as I join the other “Ferris Bueller-wanna-be’s” on Labor Day, but you’ve been warned.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go watch a certain LHP who goes by his initials only (and is now sporting a full beard!) try to pitch his current team into the playoffs on FSN Wisconsin.
Sigh…

Who Are Those Guys?

In the days before Netflix entered our greater lexicon and even before the days of DVD’s, my family used to find a good deal of their movie fix in the aisles of Glengate Video as we perused the VHS tapes for nighttime entertainment. Often, these excursions up to Glengate would consist of my dad and I walking up and down the aisles of wire shelving loaded with tapes that either had a rubber band around it (that meant it was not available) or not.

Invariably, if one of the participants in the trip was my father, the tape that would accompany us back to the homestead would either follow the inane adventures of Inspector Closeau (which my sister “didn’t get” while my dad and I laughed until we cried), would be some tough-guy movie with Lee Marvin, or had one or both of the dynamic duo of Paul Newman and Robert Redford adorning the front of the VHS case. While I longed for the likes of RoboCop, Aliens, and Commando (never really worrying as the guys up the street always had the latest shoot-em-ups), I was exposed month after month to The Dirty Dozen, Jeremiah Johnson, Cool Hand Luke, and my favorite…Butch Cassidy and The Sundance Kid.

Where am I going with this?
Watching this Indians’ team rattle off 10 straight victories, I’m reminded nightly of the chase scene in the movie when Butch and Sundance are riding away from their pursuers, attempting to throw them off the trail by jumping off of cliffs and the like, but are never able to escape the white skimmer hat that appears on one of their pursuers on the horizon. When the two would stop to see if they had lost the following group, as soon as they saw that they were still being tailed, they would exchange forlorn glances and say, incredulously, “Who are those guys?”

Anyone else find themselves wondering the exact same thing after each victory as a team ravaged by injuries, ineffectiveness, and ultimately trades finds itself as the hottest team in MLB?
As this team somehow hits another gear, let’s rattle off what’s NOT on the field which was assumed to be givens for the season on Opening Day:
#1 Starter (CC)
#3 Starter (Jake)
#4 Starter (Byrd)
Closer (JoeBo)
#3 Hitter / Starting Catcher (Vic)
#4 Hitter / DH (Pronk)
#7 Hitter / 3B (Blake)
Perhaps I’m overstating the assumed roles of Borowski and Blake coming out of Winter Haven…but did I miss anything?

All of those players are not currently pulling their Chief Wahoo caps on and STILL the Indians have the 4th best record in baseball since the All-Star Break at 24-14. The All-Star break, you may remember, started just days after the Indians “put up the white flag” by trading their aCCe to the shores of Lake Michigan.
I mean, seriously, every night the question can be asked - “Who are those guys?”

The Indians have the 2nd best record in baseball in August (18-7, behind only the Cubs’ 18-6) with a rotation that “boasts” Jeremy Sowers, Anthony Reyes, and Zach Jackson. Their DH most nights is David Dellucci (who, truth be told, has a 1.056 OPS in August) and their lineup consists of a #3 hitter that started the season in AAA (Francisco) and their best power hitter who was a back-up when the season started (Show Pack).

How is this happening?
How does Kelly Shoppach have an OPS of .992 since the All-Star Break while SEVEN players have OPS over .800 in the month of August…and one of them isn’t Grady Sizemore? The Indians have the 3rd most productive offense (5.70 runs per game) since the All-Star Break in the AL, all without Victor or Pronk picking up a bat in Cleveland. Given what we know about the importance of those two in the lineup, what’s going on here? Are we seeing the offensive maturation of multiple players or are we just seeing a team get hot collectively, something that figures to serve as only an enticing mirage in this desert of a 2008 season?

Certain things are becoming clearer, like knowing Kelly Shoppach’s value is awfully high right now and the Indians need to decide whether they are “selling high” on him or this is what can be expected of Shoppach in 2009, either making him an integral part of the team or moving him to fill a hole via trade, and knowing that Jensen Lewis is making a strong case for being in the back end of the bullpen (in some sort of role) for 2009.

But most of those things that are “becoming clearer” usually lead to another question.

We now know that acceptable production from Chootierrez IS possible (Gutz’s August OPS is .977, The BLC’s August OPS is .936) for an extended period of time and that The Ben Francisco Treat looks to be is what he is – a valuable complementary piece, but not much else – Coco without the plus range in the outfield. But can the corners be occupied by The Frisco Kid and Chootierrez to start 2009 until LaPorta is ready?

Given the power that the team gets (and assumes to get in 2009) from Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez, and (fingers and toes all crossed) Hafner, can the corner OF positions be complementary pieces until some of the youngsters start to force themselves into the picture? I tend to think that it can, as long as nobody is overestimating Francisco as a “core” player or assumes that (at age 28 in 2009) he’s on the verge of something more than he is right now. The likes of Frisco and Chootierrez aren’t that much different than having your corners patrolled by Coco and Dellichaels, which could certainly be upgraded; but if greater needs exist, this can’t be the top priority, particularly with LaPorta, Weglarz, and perhaps Brantley (though all three are presumably LF) in the pipeline.

We seem to be getting a better idea that Andy Marte is not long for Cleveland and that Ryan Garko’s true performance probably lies somewhere between his 2007 and his 2008…which means that neither should be counted on to provide adequate production from 3B or 1B for 2009. What dominoes fall based on that notion seem infinite with the makeup of the whole infield in flux, with the only known being that (barring a trade) Peralta, Cabrera, and Victor will occupy 3 of the 5 positions when the team leaves Arizona next Spring. Where they fall figures to remain a mystery as The Kelly Shoppach Show continues on a nightly basis and as the Free Agent and trade markets are explored for a 2B or a 3B.

We know that C.P. Lee is on an incredible run and hope that it will continue into 2009 while hoping that “Good Fausto” (the one that can throw all three of his pitches for strikes) shows up more frequently than “Bad Fausto” (the one who throws 100 pitches through 4 innings…with ½ of them being balls) next year. Beyond that, the principals in the running for the rotation need a longer look, and it looks like we’ll get it as Aaron Laffey will join the rotation (to make it a 6-man rotation) in the first or second week of September. Now, should a strong finish by Sowers, Reyes, Jackson, or Laffey guarantee anything for 2009? No, nothing should be guaranteed…and Dave Huff (yes, he prefers “Dave”, according to a family member who complimented my piece on him last week) is right in that pack as well (if not leading it). But Rey-Rey is out of options after this year and a decision should probably be made on whether The Zach Attack (or is it Zachson) should go into Spring Training next year vying for a spot in the rotation or the bullpen.

Beyond Lee and Fausto, questions abound including when Jake Westbrook is thought to be returning from TJ surgery and at what capacity. Given what the Indians like to pad their rotation with in terms of depth, a middle-of-the-rotation starter should be on their shopping list this winter, if only to slot those young arms into the #6 through #8 starters in the organization so a Matt Ginter sighting or something like it isn’t forced to occur again.

We are being reminded what an effective 9th inning option can do to the rest of the bullpen while realizing what roles seem to best suit the Fist of Iron and the Fist of Steel, which would be as effective bridges to the 9th…not pitching the 9th itself.. Consider that the Indians have put up that 24-14 record since the All-Star Break with 5 blown saves in 15 opportunities, prior to Jenny Lew getting the nod in the 9th. There were 5 games that the bullpen has blown (Eddie Moo – 2, Betancourt – 1, Perez – 1, Masa – 1) since the All-Star Break…and the Indians STILL have won 63% of their games in that stretch!

Now, has this 10-game winning streak allowing us to see what a settled pen can do for a team?
Absolutely…but we thought the pen was relatively settled and stocked with arms going into THIS season, so the thought that everything is now suddenly fine with the bullpen for 2009 shouldn’t pass through anyone’s mind. While Lewis, Perez, and Betancourt are rediscovering their effectiveness down the stretch here and young hard-throwing arms like Jon Meloan, Jeff Stevens, Atom Miller (whose transition to the bullpen looks like a near certainty), and perhaps even Tony Sipp figure to be factors in filling out the 2009 bullpen, I don’t think that even the most optimistic person could think that the bullpen doesn’t need some quality and depth added to it. Certainly some pieces are slotting themselves for roles next year; but again, that’s what we thought last year.

All told, this stretch of success has been a thoroughly enjoyable ride as the lost season essentially has piqued some interest once again as winning baseball has returned…even if it is too little, too late. We know that this team isn’t content to just roll over and wait for the end of the season (anyone else think signing checks is not one of Mike Ilitch’s favorite activities these days?) and that some key youngsters are gaining (or regaining) some momentum for next year.

However, while this stretch is exciting and seeing these young players excel gets the mind racing, it’s important to remember what this team looked like in May and June and that a 2009 that could potentially start similarly will have the same debilitating effect on the season that it did this year.

Despite the recent run of success, it’s not safe to say that once this team is set once it gets Victor and Hafner back because they’ll simply enhance the performance of a winning team. If the transition from 2007 to 2008 has taught us anything, it’s to revel in the good times and prepare for the bad times to maximize the former while limiting the latter. These last 30 games could roll on in this suddenly magical manner that leaves us all smiling and excited for next year. But temper that enthusiasm with the reality of why, after a 10-game winning streak, the team is still double digits out of 1st place in a very winnable Central.

Right now feels like the best of times…just as the playoff chase and run of 2007 did. Now, avoiding the worst of times as an encore is what needs to be in the back of everyone’s minds as we revel in being able to FINALLY watching a team that consistently wins games as we try to turn “Who are those guys” into “THESE are the guys” that make this team a contender in 2009 and not another construction project.

Superman

For a moment, let’s take a break from all of the talk of uncertainty about which glove Victor is going to use in the field in 2009 or whether Jenny Lew’s performance over the last few weeks has reduced the need for a closer in the offseason. Those are all topics that can be hit on and debated from today to the end of the Hot Stove Season.

No, today it’s time to (once again) acknowledge and extol the accomplishments of one Grady Sizemore, who blasted his 30th and 31st HR in a game last night in which the scoreboard could have read “Sizemore – 2, Tigers – 1” for a portion of time as Grady’s contributions outweighed those of the entire Detroit club.

In leading the way to another victory, Grady became the 25th player in MLB history to go 30-30, and only the 2nd in Tribe history (Joe Carter being the other) to achieve the feat. The accomplishment in and of itself is a shockingly amazing feat, just by virtue of how rare it is, made even more impressive when you consider that there are 32 games (or about 20% of the season) still remaining on the schedule.

So whatever your preferred method of adulation may be, now would be a good time to get to it:
If you’re a golf clap kind of guy, let’s hear that polite acknowledgement of greatness.
If you’re still in the “Wayne’s World” mindset (that movie was made 16 years ago, people) and prefer the “We’re Not Worthy…” bow at the waist, get those arms up and start bending.
If you’re a bit more subdued and prefer the hat tip, it’s time to raise your thumb and forefinger to the brim of that cap.
If you’re a female and want to pretend you’re at a Tom Jones concert, it’s time to see Center Field at Progressive Field littered with some of Victoria’s Secrets.

However you publicly acknowledge that greatness is present before you or however you show respect, please look towards our Center Fielder the next time you’re at Progressive Field when he hustles out to the green expanse that he occupies and acknowledge away…because he’s earned it.

Because, perhaps not so surprisingly, in a season so full of disappointments and “what-ifs”, where we all focus on the volatile bullpen and the fluidity of the rotation and deal with the inconsistency of numerous position players, Grady somehow flies under the radar as almost a given and most fail to properly recognize it on a regular basis. We take his steady contributions at the plate and in the field for granted because you know you’re going to get maximum effort out of him (the ultimate “grinder” if there ever was one…just with immense talent), solid and spectacular defense in CF, and steady numbers throughout the season at the plate.

As we all sit and wonder who is going to play 3B or RF or 2B in 2009 or whether the team will “sell high” on Shoppach, what becomes overlooked is that Sizemore’s name remains in permanent ink on the lineup card. It’s almost like a discussion of the Cavs’ starting five that either starts with “Well, there’s LeBron…obviously” or LeBron’s name simply isn’t included because there’s such an assumption of his presence and his greatness.

How is the way that Grady is perceived much different?
It could be argued that EVERY single position for next year is in some sort of state of flux…except CF. There’s no debate, there’s no conjecture, there’s no “but…maybe” involved. It’s Grady – every game at full capacity.

Why is it so easy to take what he does for granted?
Consider for a moment his numbers by month:
March/April
.847 OPS, 5 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI

May
.826 OPS, 5 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 16 RBI

June
.970 OPS, 8 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 16 RBI

July
1.115 OPS, 6 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 18 RBI

August
.778 OPS, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 18 RBI

Until the month of August (which still isn’t over and, if Monday night was any indication, could still be “salvageable” in terms of maintaining his frighteningly consistent numbers), Sizemore has put up steady production across the board, including a July that put him in some pretty rarified air in the AL, made even more impressive by the fact that he’s also contributing SB and Gold Glove defense.

How impressive, exactly, in terms of how he looks against the rest of the AL?
Well, there’s a statistic (invented by Keith Woolner…who happens to now be employed by the Tribe) that is nearly universally accepted by baseball people (at least those that acknowledge the importance of statistics in the evaluation of a player) in terms of putting one hard number on a player and how valuable he is, compared to other players.

It’s known as VORP (or Value over Replacement Player) and is best described here, by the creator. Essentially, it attempts to determine how much a particular player contributes in comparison to an “average player” or “freely available talent”. It assigns a number that is easily comparable to measure a player’s value against other players with one number.

Confused?
Don’t be, and don’t try to figure out what that number means…just know that people smarter than you and I calculate it and use it to compare and evaluate players using the same criteria and with the same factors instead of looking at 40 different numbers (BA, OBP, SLG, HR, etc.) and attempting to accurately compare players, apples to apples.

Turning off the overhead projector, let’s go back to Grady and compare how Sizemore ranks with other players in the AL in terms of VORP this year:
Alex Rodriguez – 57.6
Grady Sizemore – 57.2
Ian Kinsler – 54.8
Aubrey Huff – 51.0
Milton Bradley – 51.0
Carlos Quentin – 49.2
Kevin Youkilis – 47.5
Josh Hamilton – 47.4
Brian Roberts – 46.8
Justin Morneau – 43.9
What do those numbers mean exactly?
Unless you’re ready to jump into some high-level math, don’t concern yourself with it…just know that those numbers are the ones that decision-makers in MLB look at instead of Batting Average or RBI.
So, according to VORP, Grady’s the 2nd most valuable position player in the AL – behind only A-Rod.

Is your appreciation growing yet?
If you thought he was in some rarified air in terms of July production, how about that list…or how about the fact that he’s accomplishing all of this having turned all of 26 at the beginning of August? And maybe that’s the most impressive thing that Sizemore is accomplishing, as he’s maturing as a hitter to awfully impressive levels at an age when most players are still entering MLB or going through an adjustment period to MLB pitching.

For some fun, let’s see how Sizemore’s career is progressing compared to another LH OF who some people may have heard of:
Age 22
Sizemore - .832 OPS, 22 HR, 37 2B, 11 3B, 81 RBI, 22 SB
Player A - .821 OPS, 25 HR, 34 2B, 9 3B, 59 RBI, 32 SB

Age 23
Sizemore - .908 OPS, 28 HR, 53 2B, 11 3B, 76 RBI, 22 SB
Player A - .859 OPS, 24 HR, 30 2B, 5 3B, 58 RBI, 17 SB

Age 24
Sizemore - .852 OPS, 24 HR, 34 2B, 5 3B, 78 RBI, 33 SB
Player A - .777 OPS, 19 HR, 34 2B, 6 3B, 58 RBI, 32 SB

Age 25
Sizemore - .915 OPS, 31 HR, 28 2B, 5 3B, 81 RBI, 34 SB (stats through 126 games)
Player A - .971 OPS, 33 HR, 32 2B, 3 3B, 114 RBI, 52 SB

Who is Player A, you ask?
Um, that’s Barry Bonds… when he was still playing just a couple of hours southeast of Cleveland and prior to his “unexplained” head expansion.

Forgetting for a moment what transpired with Bonds’ career when the new millennium dawned, let’s remember what everyone has always said about Bonds. All together now…“He was a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer before he started (allegedly) juicing.”
Well, Grady’s right with him in terms of progression as a hitter – even distancing himself from Bonds in terms of power at his tender age.

OK, have you ordered that Sizemore jersey yet?
It’s a safe bet to get some heavy use for a good amount of time as, in case you’ve forgotten, SuperSizemore’s club option for 2012 for $8.5M is pretty likely to get picked up…unless the Indians re-negotiate with their young CF to add more years and more guaranteed dollars to his deal.
Even if they don’t…2012?!?
Seriously…can any of us even grasp what he’ll be doing a full FOUR seasons from now?

As if this whole thing isn’t impressive enough, how about the fact that Sizemore has started to assume a leadership role on the team with the likes of Sabathia, Blake, and Byrd donning new polyester? Maybe it’s his quiet demeanor, maybe it’s the way he’s always conducted himself in the dugout, and maybe it’s just pure speculation to think that Sizemore deferred to those veterans in terms of leadership while each was on the team. And I know that this is based on nothing tangible, but this team just FEELS like it’s become Grady’s team – feeding off him, looking for him now in the dugout to be that guy on the top step or having someone’s ear.

For whatever reason though (and with Victor and Pronk also shelved), the Indians have put up these records since moving their veteran players:
Since CC trade: 26-16 (.619 winning percentage)
Since Blake trade: 18-10 (.642 winning percentage)
Since Byrd trade: 9-3 (.750 winning percentage)
Don’t ask me to explain that (and, obviously, 12 games a season does not make), but Grady assuming a leadership role and these young players taking their cues from him and following his example certainly can’t dismissed out of hand.

With the season winding down and Grady’s projected numbers looking like they could enter an even more exclusive club if he keeps up his pace, 2008 will go down as a “lost season” in many aspects of the Indians as a whole...but not for Sizemore.

When it’s all said and done, 2008 will represent the year that “what he could be” matured into “what he is” with room for growth. And that, for Tribe fans, is something that should not be taken for granted or simply assumed. It should be something admired, respected, and enjoyed every night.
Grady doesn’t take a day off or go into cruise control…why shouldn’t your appreciation of him follow his example?

Lazy Sunday in Print

With the Indians rolling up victories (while Jenny Lew racks up saves) on their way to 3rd place and my dad calling while I was still sleeping this morning to tell me that my name and this site appeared in the PD via a mention by Terry Pluto, let’s get right to it and hit “all the news that’s fit to link” on a Lazy Sunday:

As pointed out, Terry Pluto gives a quick hat tip to yours truly (specifically the Huff piece from a few days ago) in addition to hitting on topics ranging from the infield situation for 2009, where Kelly Show Pack fits in, and what help may be en route from the farm.

One piece of conjecture that Pluto puts out there is that he thinks that the PTBNL in the CC deal will be OF Michael Brantley, a 21-year-old speedster with a high OBP and the look of a potential leadoff hitter. With the two other notable names that have been thrown out there being 3B/2B Taylor Green (who would admittedly fill more of an organizational need, assuming he can make the transition to 2B) and C Matthew LuCroy (who is around the same level of advancement at the same position as newly acquired Carlos Santana…who I’ll get to soon), I have to agree that I hope that Brantley is the pick.

Detractors have pointed to his lack of power and his suspect arm in LF, but given his age (and the fact that power is often the last “skill set” to develop) and the fact that the team has won with Coco and The Looch lobbing balls in from LF, I don’t think that they’re major concerns. All told, Brantley’s positives (OBP, youth, speed) outweigh the negatives (lack of power, arm) to the point that the Indians should lean in that direction to give them what they thought they were getting with Trevor Crowe when they drafted him in 2005…you know, before he became the soon-to-be-25-year-old with all of 111 AB above AA and a career minor league OPS of .747.

Anywho, great stuff as usual from Terry, who should be expecting that check in the mail any day now.

Outside of the category of articles that mention me by name, Ken Rosenthal hits on some very pertinent Tribe topics including CC’s unbelievable pitch counts in the Cream City and what the Tribe may be targeting in terms of arms, in addition to a bit on Grady’s ascension to a leadership role. Most interesting is his take on some potential bullpen arms and how some internal parts might fit in 2009:
“Francisco Rodriguez will be out of the Indians' price range. Kerry Wood likely will stay with the Cubs. But look for the Indians to make runs at virtually every other closer on the market this offseason, from Brian Fuentes to Brandon Lyon to Rafael Soriano.

Class AAA right-hander Adam Miller almost certainly will open the season in the Indians' bullpen if he is healthy, but the Tribe will need to add at least one veteran reliever and maybe more. They also will need to use an internal option such as left-hander Zach Jackson or righty Anthony Reyes in their rotation until right-hander Jake Westbrook returns in the second half from Tommy John surgery.

Class AAA left-hander David Huff is another pitcher who could figure into the Indians' plans. The Yankees planned to take Huff ahead of Joba Chamberlain in the sandwich round of the 2006 draft, but the Indians grabbed the lefty first. Huff is a combined 10-5 with a 2.39 ERA at Class AA and AAA, with 135 strikeouts and just 27 walks in 135 2/3 innings.”

Hard to argue with the line of thinking on the bullpen and it isn’t anything too new, though a guy like a Fuentes figures to be in line for a decent payday as well as he falls behind K-Rod in terms of available closers and the teams that miss on K-Rod could have Fuentes as their fallback option, meaning he could get too expensive for the type of pitcher he is. A player like Lyon would fit more into what I see the Tribe targeting, a pitcher with closing experience, but one that has also filled multiple roles in the bullpen, in the off chance that an internal answer at closer emerges.

As for Rosenthal’s thoughts that The Zach Attack or Rey-Rey is going to simply hold a spot for Westbrook, I would have to say that Reyes (more so than Jackson) figures into the rotation independent of Westbrook and that an external arm is still necessary to augment the rotation and the arms looking to slide into that 2009 rotation.

To that end, another topic that Rosenthal touches on in the same piece is Ryan Dempster, who some thought could be a target for the Indians this offseason as a starter. Rosenthal pegs re-signing Dempster as the Cubs’ top offseason priority, a thought echoed by my future brother-in-law (whose bachelor party was the reason that the trip to Vegas was “in the cards” a couple of weekends ago) when I asked him for his opinion on the topic.

For those who don’t remember (and really, why would you), my future brother-in-law is a mildly obsessed Cubs fan who correctly predicted that the North Siders didn’t have the ammo to net CC some time ago. Anywho, here are my future brother-in-law’s thoughts on Dempster:
“With Dempster, he is definitely going to want to stay as a starter. At one point last year, Lou mentioned putting him in the rotation very soon. He got really excited in front of the media and wanted to do it ASAP. Lou decided that they wouldn't do it mid-season. Smart idea by Lou.

They told him in the offseason that they wouldn't guarantee him a rotation spot but that he could compete for one. He was ready to go from day one this spring. Lost some weight and stretched his arm out. I am sure that being a free agent season didn't hurt.

I don't know how much money he will demand but I think it will be substantial. I could see 4 years, $70 mil but that is a complete guess. Big teams are going to have money to spend this year and they will want to spend it on pitching. The tough thing is that this is his first year back as a starter. The Cubs will want to sign him but might have ownership issues and might want to put the Shark (Jeff Samardzija) in the rotation. The other factor is how far they will go this year. He has been their best starting pitcher by the numbers this year including Z. He will be high on the free agent list.

His public comments are that he wants to come back to Chicago. He has a sense of loyalty to them because they signed him while he was out with Tommy John surgery, put him in the closer role and then gave him the shot at the rotation.”
So…um, scratch Dempster off the wish list.

Back to Kenny Rosenthal (who is really coming correct and in full effect this week), who floats this balloon out there in a separate piece discussing the moves that the Dodgers made, and specifically Kinston C Carlos Santana:
“Some with the Indians, however, view Santana as an even better prospect than Class AA outfielder Matt LaPorta, the marquee player that Cleveland received in the CC Sabathia trade. Quality catchers are scarce. If the Dodgers had kept Santana, they could have used him in a bigger deal later or eventually moved Martin to third base.”
How could that be, you say…LaPorta has a nickname contest already happening for him, with WangBanger leading in the clubhouse?

How about the fact that Santana’s actually IMPROVED on those video game numbers that Santana put up in the Dodgers’ organization while in Kinston? Single A-ball is a long way from MLB, but 109 RBI in 121 games is mighty impressive…even if you don’t think much of RBI as a quantitative stat.

If that doesn’t scratch your itch, how about the fact that he’s posted a cumulative 1.001 OPS this year, good enough to put him in some pretty rarified air among players his age at his level as Matt Wieters, who appears a few notches above Santana on the list and has since moved up to AA, will likely be a Top 5 prospect…in all of baseball.

Elsewhere, ESPN’s Amy Nelson (who you might remember was the media member texting the Hefty Lefty after his trade) has an interesting and insightful piece on C.P. Lee. It focuses on last year compared to this year and how Lee’s attitude has remained unchanged, if the results have changed wildly.

Isn’t it amazing how success can turn a guy from a perceived hothead (fighting with Victor, doffing his cap in his final outing last year) and someone that most everyone was ready to write off (including me) into a fiery competitor and someone who just wants to win. Lee’s demeanor hasn’t changed, but his pitching sure has…along with the fickle winds of public perception.

Finally, some great news for one of my favorite sports writers, Joe Posnanski, who is having his brilliant blog picked up by SportsIllustrated.com which (you will learn when you read the great piece) brings him full circle in his burgeoning career.

Look out Detroit, Tribe’s on a warpath…and that brass (or would that be bronze?) ring of 3rd place is in our reach!