Time for Some Action

Maybe Wedge is staying, maybe Wedge is going – who knows at this point – but if he stays, if he goes, there’s no question that the time “to talk of many things, of shoes and ships…” has long since passed and internal meetings that should have been initiated when this team was 14-26 on May 19th (you may remember that as the FIRST time they went 12 games under .500) should now be over and the suggestion by the estimable Cypress Hill that it is “time for some action” needs to find some footing. That action needs to come, loud and decisive, to right the wrongs of the season and to attempt to cast an eye towards 2010 not turning into another lost season.

Tuesday’s moves obviously represented a good start with Sizemore coming up to replace a not-surprisingly-overwhelmed Trevor Crowe and slotting Tony “Don’t Give Up the” Sipp to replace a Jose Vizcaino who isn’t in the Indians’ long-term plans and, frankly, wasn’t really ever in their short-term plans. The next move to bring Cabrera up to play SS everyday and bat leadoff (presumably until Grady tells someone that he’s ready to ascend back to his perch at the top, with Carroll serving as a RH complement to Valbuena at 2B with Barfield almost assuredly going back to Columbus) is going to be another step in the right direction.

Guess what, though…those guys (Grady and Asdrubal) haven’t been gone all that long and their return isn’t going to be a sudden balm for all that ails the Indians and if each performs as they’re expected to, warm fuzzies aren’t going to suddenly replace this emptiness inside.

What should be done, you ask?
Well, I’m glad that you did because I’ve broken it up into things that should be done today, things that need to happen in the next month and things that need to happen as the season winds down for the Indians…and no, Eric Wedge’s name isn’t mentioned as I’ve already said my peace on him:

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN NOW
Fire Chuck Hernandez as bullpen coach, Promote Scott Radinsky
If you want heads to roll (and there is certainly a bloodlust out there), how about starting with the coach that’s presided over this mess of a pen and allow the move that should have happened in the off-season to finally occur? The Indians’ bullpen has been the Achilles’ heel of the team all season (well, one of them) and the notion that relievers emerge from AAA “fixed” or at least more effective when they left lends credence to the notion put forth by Ken Rosenthal some time back that Hernandez’s strength as a coach is not in identifying and fixing mechanical flaws.

Too often, we see players arrive from Columbus with a renewed effectiveness or a new approach and, for the lack of discerning anything else out of that, the bullpen coaches in Cleveland and Columbus would have to have some bearing on that.

Would the move be a minor one?
For sure, as I challenge anyone to tell me exactly what a bullpen coach does; but this goes back to the notion that maintaining the status quo when the status quo is not working suggests that a change is needed and what better place is there to start than the bullpen.

Once Radinsky came topside, I'd ask him who the best 6 relievers are that he’s seen this year in Columbus (everyone but Lewis and Wood have spent time there) and make that your bullpen along with Kerry Wood. If that includes Chulk, call up Chulk…if that doesn’t include Sipp, send Sipp down. Newly acquired Jose Veras and pitchers of his ilk need not apply in this scenario, but if the Indians want to search out that “lightning in a bottle” again, it’s at their own risk.

At this point, the Indians shouldn’t be married to any one of their relievers (save Wood, of course, if only because of the contract) and if a fresh set of eyes is needed to get a better picture of where this bullpen stands and what it should be, Radinsky should be the owner of those new eyes.

Call up LaPorta to play him every day at 1B, send Gimenez to AAA
Is it time to declare the “Ryan Garko Era” over yet or can we concede that the team should have sold high on Kelly Show Pack? If the answer is yes on both counts (and it is), then it’s time to give the keys to 1B to Matt LaPorta. With him at 1B, Martinez goes back to being the full-time C and is DH when Cliff Lee pitches (because you know CP wants ShopVac back there for him) to give Hafner a day off from time to time.

I’m pretty sure that everyone is aware who LaPorta is, what he’s done as a Minor Leaguer, what he’s done this year, and how he was mishandled in his first stint with the team in terms of the organization (regardless of whose intent it was) allowing lesser players with “track records” (and that’s not just The Looch) to play instead of LaPorta.

Right away, somebody needs to sit down with The GateKeeper (that’s LaPorta) to tell him that he’s going to play every day, more often than not at 1B and to just relax and play baseball. Whether that “somebody” has a facial tic while the conversation is occurring really doesn’t matter to me, but if the Indians have potential deficiencies at 1B (with Garko and Shoppach underperforming and Victor essentially slotting back to catch every day), I'd like to hear the argument that LaPorta has not earned the first shot to take the mantle of 1B and run with it or at least play out the season without interruption from “getting AB” for Frisco and Garko.

The only reason that Gimenez gets the demotion instead of Garko (who could be sent to the DL with this wrist thing just as easily) is because I'd rather see Gimenez get everyday AB in AAA and his development means something to the team as a super-utility player, a role that will be vacated by DeRosa in the next month. Thus, tell Gimenez that he’ll be back in less than a month regardless of how he performs and allow Garko to essentially turn into a late-inning pinch hitter against LHP with an occasional DH start to rest Hafner if he so needs it.

Slot Laffey into the ROTATION when healthy, move Sowers to the bullpen
This really shouldn’t even be a question, although it has been argued that Laffey’s success as a reliever after being moved there could mean that his return to the bullpen would provide some needed stability. However, if Laffey’s future is in the rotation and not in the bullpen (and it is), why not get him used to pitching every 5th day in MLB again?

Laffey has proven himself to be, right now, a credible back-end-of-the-rotation starter who could top out as high as a #3 in the rotation when he’s really rolling. For a guy that just turned 24 in April and has a career ERA+ of 106 over 177 1/3 innings pitched, isn’t it time to just put him in the rotation, give him the ball every five games and dispense with the “he warms up fast” nonsense and maximize his ability as a starter?

Speaking on “he warms up fast”, the corresponding move that goes with this should not be to send Tomo Ohka on his way (that will come soon enough), but rather to send Jeremy Sowers to the bullpen to assume the reins as the long man in the bullpen. It’s been said that he takes a long time to warm up, so…how about giving him ample time to do so and seeing if he can eat some innings for the Indians? He has nothing left to prove in the Minors (2.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but also has shown himself to not be an MLB starter.

Not that I’m breaking any new ground here, but Sowers actually does well in his first and (to a lesser extent) second times through the lineup so why not utilize him to pitch innings 3 to 7 when a starter bottoms out? I’m not saying that moving him to the bullpen immediately saves the season, but these opponents’ numbers are hard to ignore:
Facing Sowers 1st time in a game
.209 BA / .250 OBP / .343 SLG / .593 OPS

Facing Sowers 2nd time in a game
.281 BA / .347 OBP / .453 SLG / .800 OPS

Facing Sowers 3rd time in a game
.500 BA / .647 OBP / .818 SLG / 1.465 OPS

What does that mean and why does that happen?
Who knows, but if the Indians are playing the hand that’s dealt to them right now in terms of players, how about maximizing these guys and playing up to their strength? Sowers’ strength may not be going 6 shutout innings and blowing anyone away, but if he can be an effective long man and go 3 to 4 innings to save the bullpen as a whole by pitching for an extended period if a starter goes off the tracks, there’s his spot.

With Sowers out of options after this year and having proven that he’s not a viable MLB starter, how about giving him a look in another role before simply seeing another #1 pick bound away with nothing but bad feelings around? Would he thrive as a long man and potentially contribute in 2010 in that role, one that good bullpens have the luxury of carrying?
There’s one way to find out.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN SOON
Trade Mark DeRosa for arm, or arms (plural), if possible
Let’s get this out of the way at the top – Mark DeRosa shouldn’t be on the Indians this year. If the Indians acquired DeRosa to play 3B (and everything they said gave that impression and his playing patterns certainly confirm that), then the Indians’ organization was drastically misguided to make him their offensive addition of the off-season given that Peralta was playing 3B in winter ball and made the permanent move to 3B before Memorial Day (one he is not happy about apparently, in terms of the timing of it).

DeRosa essentially found himself in the super-utility role that Casey Blake was never really specifically put into and his ability to play multiple positions and play them well is a valuable commodity, just not on a team with more glaring needs in the off-season and not for a team that already had a 3B-in-training in Peralta. He was brought in to replace Casey Blake (which he has done admirably), but with issues facing the rotation and with the knowledge that Cabrera would eventually be the SS and Peralta would eventually be the 3B with no plans to play DeRosa at 2B, he finds himself just as expendable as Casey Blake last year – a tremendous complementary part on a team that is in need of principal parts, not complementary ones.
In terms of his value, the Casey Blake comparison is actually frighteningly relevant if you take a look at what Blake put forth in 2008 and what DeRosa has done to date this year:
Blake 2008 – Age 34
.289 BA / .365 OBP / .465 SLG / .830 OPS with 11 HR in 368 plate appearances

DeRosa 2009 – Age 34
.273 BA / .346 OBP / .464 SLG / .810 OPS with 13 HR in 302 plate appearances

If Blake’s trade made sense last year in terms of a 34-year-old versatile player who would command money on the FA market after the season that would be better used in other areas for the Indians, than DeRosa’s value should make sense as well. Not unlike the Blake situation, the Indians may be able to net a nice haul from an NL team in need of a versatile veteran to fill the gaps for their team as they make a playoff push and the interested teams that have been mentioned have been just about every NL team in contention.

With the Indians in need of young, MLB-ready arms in both the rotation and the bullpen and with so many teams allegedly interested in DeRosa, the Tribe may find itself in a bit of a catbird’s seat in terms of trading DeRosa. They’re in no hurry to trade him and his value only increases with each passing day that sees the Cardinals shut out or the Mets losing a game because of a thin roster. At this point, play the waiting game – if Cards won’t part with Chris Perez and Mets won’t trade Bobby Parnell right now…wait for them to become desperate enough to be willing to part with a young impact arm for a few months of DeRosa. He’s probably not going to get the Indians a legit starter, in terms of front-of-the-rotation stuff, but if trading him could throw a high-ceiling, MLB-ready arm into the bullpen…have at it.

Will the team miss DeRosa?
Almost certainly, but 3B is handled by Peralta and 1B should be LaPorta’s, so where does that leave DeRosa but in the outfield? Assuming Francisco is there as the 4th OF, depending upon how long the Indians wait, wouldn’t it be prudent to promote Mike Brantley to the parent club while he’s riding a hot streak in AAA? If he’s your 2010 LF, why not get some AB under his belt at the bottom of the order and see how he reacts to MLB pitching this year instead of watching the first experiment in 2010? As for who handles those super-utility duties that DeRosa provided, Gimenez comes back up to fill the cracks at 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and C and to give days off to regulars as they may be needed.

In the very worst case scenario, if the trade market for DeRosa doesn’t turn into the sweepstakes you want it to, add a young MiLB bat (one of the many 1B/DH types that clutter the system) to get the arm you want. The Indians need pitching at their upper levels and in Cleveland right now and DeRosa looks to be the best path to fill that vacuum quickly and with quality as they’d be selling high on him right now. If that arm still isn’t coming with just DeRosa as a return, there may be a way to up the ante a little bit and go after a couple of arms if you…

Throw Shoppach to sweeten the purse
I know…you always try to “sell high” on a guy and moving Kelly now would be the antithesis of that strategy. But I fear that the “sell high” period has passed for Show Pack and if the teams looking at DeRosa are mainly NL teams that could use an upgrade at C – MIL (Kendall), NYM (Schneider), CIN (Hannigan) – isn’t it possible that the inclusion of Shoppach in a deal could net more arms when more arms are so obviously needed?

If I may put on my salesman hat here, how about telling an NL team that Shoppach could sit an the #8 hole ahead of a pitcher in the NL and just feast on fastballs to provide some power from behind the dish?

But, he’s a windmill, right?
No question, but I go back to a comment that Terry Pluto made some time back before the season when he joined Tony Lastoria and I on “Smoke Signals” when he was asked if the Indians had missed their chance to get maximum value for ShopVac. Pluto responded that in MLB, if a player had ever experienced prolonged success (and Shoppach certainly did in the 2nd half of last year), another team would point to that success and say that “they could fix him” to get the player back to that success. I’m not sure if that would hold in terms of a team seeing Shoppach as a reclamation project, but as a catcher with power in a league full of catchers providing little or no offense, he would have to retain some value despite his prodigious K totals.

Could the Indians wait on this until the off-season?
Sure, but at this point, Wyatt Torregas is ready to come up to become the back-up catcher and the fact that Gimenez can help with the catching duties means that Shoppach’s value as CP Lee’s personal catcher who “runs into one” every so often decreases daily. Moving him now would serve as the transition to 2010, where Torregas and Gimenez figure in as a backup catchers, and clears the path for Carlos Santana to head up to AAA to play every day in anticipation of him helping the parent club sooner rather than later.

Somebody’s just going to have to break the news to Clifton Phifer…NOT IT.

Trade Pavano for…well, anything
If we’re on the topic of diminishing returns, now might be a good time to cut ties with Pavano to see if he can net anything of value for the Indians as a trading chip. The problem with Pavano at this point (at least the main one in terms of trading him) is that his value (which isn’t that great to begin with) diminishes with each poor start and the likelihood of him netting much more than cash considerations or a PTBNL dips further and further with a bad start or, worse, a skipped start because of an injury.

If his effectiveness has come to an end or his shoulder or neck (or whatever allegedly ails him) is going to continue to affect him as a starting pitcher, the Indians should be looking to move him for a part, any part, sooner rather than later as the time is not far away that Pavano is either going to become a non-chip or he’s going to find himself on the DL, removing any trade value that may exist for him today.

Unlike the potential attractiveness of a guy like a Jamey Carroll (who, as great as he’s played recently, is not unlike 20 other players in MLB, many of them already on playoff contenders), there’s plenty of teams looking for starting pitching in a market bereft of it, so maybe somebody takes a chance on Pavano – maybe someone in the NL – but the time to act is now, particularly taking into account his last few starts.

Would it be ideal to wait for Westbrook to be ready to move Pavano so the likes of Zachson and his ilk don’t get starts? Sure, but holding onto Pavano past his expiration date (which looks to have already happened) is not going to make him any more palatable as the days and weeks pass.

Don’t rush Westbrook or Lewis back, set your rotation for next year
On the topic of starting pitching, when Laffey comes back, you have Lee, Pavano (until he’s moved), Laffey, Huff, and Ohka going and the last time that I checked, that rotation is not going to win the AL Central…but guess what, they’re not going to win the division by simply adding Westbrook to that mix either. In light of setbacks and the danger that exists from a pitcher rushing back too quickly from TJ surgery, it’s time for the Indians to tell Westbrook that the spot is his when he’s ready and that coming back on some imaginary deadline date for him may be all well and good, but that his long-term health is much more important to this team going forward.

By the same token, news that SLewis has hit another bump in a road that has been filled with setbacks for him and, while his value is not as obvious or as pressing as Westbrook, Lewis is probably your first depth starting option for 2010 (Sowers is out of options, Lofgren and Rondon would both benefit from extended time in AAA), so don’t jeopardize his health by pushing him back too soon or seeing a need at the MLB level and forcing him back to action too early.

Once Westbrook is healthy, set the rotation for 2010 with Lee, Westbrook, Huff, Laffey, and a warm body (that hopefully doesn’t remove the stickers from the underside on the bill of his hat) and miss no starts once this pattern starts as the best way to get ready for next year is to get these pitchers into a rhythm in terms of gaining some much-needed steam for 2010.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE AS THE SEASON CONTINUES
Work Carmona in slowly
Fausto may be a mess right now, but if he was the key to the 2009 season, imagine what he’s going to mean in 2010 which is Lee’s contract year. If his struggles continue into 2010 and beyond, the best laid plans of having him anchor the staff past Lee’s departure go completely off the tracks and the Tribe’s rotation actually spirals further downward.

Carmona has already overcome one career-threatening stretch after his meltdown as a closer and the hope is that he can once again find himself as not only a viable MLB starter, but as the dominant one that we saw in 2007. With 2009 essentially now just playing for next year, the Indians should be breaking out the kid gloves with Carmona, if only because of his importance to this team after this year and, more obviously, after next.

Getting Carmona right should really be Priority #1 for this year because another year of him “contributing” like he did this year will only lead to discussions this time next year as to what the Indians can reasonably net for CP Lee and El Capitan.
Not sure about you, but I'd like to avoid this ugliness next year.

Fill out the bullpen with arms that may play a role in the future
Going off tangentially from the idea that Hernandez would be fired and Radinsky would be hired, wouldn’t it benefit the Indians to see what they had in their own prospects in a lost season instead of “getting lucky” with a Greg Aquino, a Jose Vizcaino, and a Jose Veras?

If Tony Sipp was purported to have closer stuff a few years back and has seen some effectiveness in MLB, isn’t it better to allow him to get acclimated to pitching against both LHP and RHP in Cleveland instead of in Columbus?

If Rafael Perez was the most effective reliever on the team over the last three years, doesn’t it make sense to try to fix him against Morneau and Mauer and not the Jeff Mantos of the world to get him right for next year?

Wouldn’t it be better to see in September or so if these guys who have made the transition to full-time relievers in the past month or so (Frank Herrmann, Zach Putnam, Steven Wright, etc.) have the arsenal that translates to MLB?

If we’re playing the “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” game, can we at least play the game with some pitchers that MAY have some upside and MAY have a future with the team instead of trying to resurrect a career, something that hasn’t happened for more than a month or two since Bob Howry?

Would it be painful to watch if these youngsters fail?
Absolutely, but have we not been subjected to some painful late innings at the hands of Vizcaino, Herges, and Aquino? If I see failure, I want to have it done by a young guy who may learn something in the process – something that may help him the next time he’s in that situation – to help him down the road, whether that be this year, next year, or beyond.

When it’s all said and done, you go with a team that looks like this:
C – Martinez
1B – LaPorta
2B – Valbuena
SS – Cabrera
3B – Peralta
LF – Brantley
CF – Sizemore
RF – Choo
DH – Hafner
Bench – Torregas
Bench – Carroll
Bench – Gimenez
Bench – Francisco or Garko (not both)
SP – Lee
SP – Westbrook
SP – Laffey
SP – Huff
SP – Carmona (when ready, before that…whomever)
CL – Wood
RP – Aw, hell…I’m not even going to venture a guess on this…

Doesn’t that look about what the Indians should head into 2010 with?
Shouldn’t they have more answers than questions about those specific players going into the off-season?

We already know how the 2009 chapter of this book is going to end, it’s time to turn that page and start writing the 2010 chapter to see what direction that’s going to take…and the writing should be starting now.

The Blame Game

As Eric Wedge apparently lives to manage another day and voices on each side of the debate as to whether he is to blame (or how much blame can be placed on him) for the mess of the 2009 season on top of the 2008 season, the question comes rattling from the rooftops – who is to blame for the mess that the Indians find themselves in?

While the fickle finger of fate has blame resting on shoulders as varied as Wedge, Shapiro, Wedge AND Shapiro, the Dolans, and Luis Isaac (OK, I made that last one up), why does this suddenly feel like the climax of “Reservoir Dogs” where everyone is staring down the barrel of a gun, voices in the room rising, and the knowledge overwhelming all of us that this isn’t going to end well?

Starting with the man who must be feeling cold steel on his forehead with the events of the past week, how culpable is Eric Wedge for the hole that the Indians find themselves in?

At the top, let’s forgo the notion that the Indians have “quit” on Wedge as their current 6-game losing streak at the hands of the Brewers and Cubs included two 2-run losses and three 1-run losses, so it’s not as if the players are simply going through the motions and getting blown out on a nightly basis. Rather, look at the manner in which they lost those games in that they were outscored by a slim margin and if you believe (as I do) that a manager earns his stripes by winning these close games as opposed to losing them as strategy often plays a factor in close games or extra-inning games, you start to see where the frustration with The Atomic Wedgie is starting to boil over.

All season long, the Indians have found themselves in winnable games only to see the bats go silent or the bullpen explode at the worst possible times, resulting in the demoralizing come-from-ahead loss that has colored the Tribe’s 2009 season. Put away for a moment that this is on the players and their lack of execution (which is certainly part of the equation) and realize that a manager’s main functions in MLB are to fill out a lineup card which divvies up AB, to set a rotation, and to decide which relievers come into the game at which time.

Sure, there’s are daily questions that come up in terms of managerial decisions (a favorite quote of mine is that every man thinks he can do two things better than anyone else on the planet – grill a steak and manage a baseball team), but a manager’s job in MLB is essentially to put his best players on the field and to give those players the best opportunity to succeed in a given situation.

For a moment, let’s remove ourselves from the emotional train wreck of the past week and take a longer overview of the Indians performance under Wedge as a manager by analyzing how he’s stacked against a formula that actually exists to predict how many games a team should win and should lose (please not the “should” and realize that this is not a hard-and-fast formula) by taking the number of runs scored by a team and the number of runs allowed by a team. Created by Bill James (and tweaked a few times), it’s called the Pythagorean Winning Percentage and it’s used to take “luck” out of the equation.

Now, if we’re taking luck out of the equation, I’d like a quick answer on why exactly a formula that generally is off by only a couple of wins and losses from year to year (with one or two outliers) has these results for the Indians for the past 5 years, which would be the years in which the Indians did contend in the AL Central or were thought to be among the contenders when the season started:
2009 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
29-42 (29th of 30)
2009 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
34-37 (19th of 30)

2008 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
81-81 (17th of 30)
2008 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
86-76 (14th of 30)

2007 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
97-66 (1st of 30)
2007 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
94-69 (3rd of 30)

2006 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
78-84 (18th of 30)
2006 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
90-72 (5th of 30)

2005 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
93-69 (5th of 30)
2005 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
97-65 (2nd of 30)

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 4 out of the last 5 years (I’m not anticipating a HUGE turnaround this year) that the Indians have underperformed their Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage, some of which happen to represent a pretty big disparity:
2009 – 5 more losses thus far
2008 – 5 more losses
2007 – 3 more wins
2006 – 12 more losses
2005 – 4 more losses

Obviously, the quick answer to why this is happening (without laying blame at any one person) is that a lousy bullpen can go a long way in losing a number of games that would otherwise be winnable, skewing the numbers to the negative.

But why is it, then, that Wedge keeps presiding over these horrific bullpens?

Is it really that the arms aren’t there to populate the bullpen to become effective as a unit or does usage of the available arms in the bullpen play a factor?

Want to know who the 4 best relievers are in the second best bullpen (ERA-wise) in MLB?
Mark Lowe – Age 26 – ERA+ 120
Miguel Batista – Age 38 – ERA+ 131
Sean White – Age 28 – ERA+ 234
David Aardsma – Age 27 – ERA+ 264

There’s the back end of the Seattle bullpen…are you telling me that those guys are that much more talented than the arms that have played a role in the Indians’ bullpen this year? Is it really just a case of getting guys who are cresting or is something more at play here?

I’m not going to pretend to know how to handle a pitching staff, but if the same guy is pulling the levers in the bullpen over a prolonged stretch and the pulling of those levers continually results in an explosion, isn’t there something to be questioned about the lever-puller, particularly when other teams are able to cobble together effective bullpens with cast-offs and young arms? I know that it’s probably unfair to simply say that Wedge is consistently pulling the wrong lever when it’s up to the players to execute, but unfortunately Wedge’s track record of handling usage for players (both pitchers and non-pitchers) has come under fire with the flame getting ever hotter this year.

Perhaps it’s the most recent issue, the handling of a particular OF being promoted earlier than expected this year only to sit on the bench while players whose track records where known and did not justify his prolonged absence from the lineup that has cast more doubt than ever before in terms of Wedge maximizing the talent available to him or, at the very least, putting his best talent on the field and putting them in the best possible situations for success. However, if we can throw doubt on the handling of LaPorta – which may be the tipping point in terms of the “attached-at-the-hip” relationship in terms of Shapiro making an option available to Wedge to improve the team and Wedge simply ignoring him for lesser players – doesn’t it suddenly (or maybe not so suddenly) become a questioning of every personnel move that he makes, where the focus of the magnifying glass grows hotter by the day?

And that’s where we stand now, unfortunately, as the news that a Wedge move may not come until after the season only allows this lost season to become an episode of “Cold Case” where we may not ever find out what happened and the longer the time gets between our last observance of any semblance of a season makes a recovery less likely. At a certain point, we just wish we could have it back.

Obviously, however, Wedge is not alone in his responsibility for the 2009 season and to simply lay the blame on his shoulders is folly. No, the issues go much deeper than that as Mark Shapiro is the man who oversaw the mishandling of personnel over the last few years, as Brendan Donnelly and Juan Rincon continued to see innings down the stretch last year and as Dave Dellucci arrived to the team this season to essentially take AB away from players that figured into the Indians future because Wedge apparently had more trust in a known quantity (even if not known for doing much good) than the development of players.

With the Indians, the buck ultimately stops at Shapiro’s desk as the Dolans have given him control of the baseball side of the team and, while maybe not always providing him with a payroll found in other larger markets, asked him to keep the product on the field competitive to a point that the playoffs was always a rational thought as each season began and to keep the flow of players coming to infuse the team with young talent.

To that end, Shapiro has not held up his end of the bargain, particularly this year where it was almost expected that the rotation would be a mishmash of players who would hopefully evolve into something effective by the time that Jake Westbrook returned. Or where it was expected that some of the players that were fighting to earn everyday AB to fall into the complementary roles that they should be finding themselves in.
Who among us counted Francisco and Garko as linchpins to the season?
How about Dellucci…Sowers?

Wasn’t the thought that if (that should be a big IF) the likes of Sowers, Francisco, Garko, and Pavano could hold on until the cavalry arrived from that the Indians could still compete in a very winnable division?

Regardless, the team wasn’t able to even hold ground in the Central and the player acquisition through the draft ultimately comes down as another culprit. Just as Shapiro is culpable for allowing Wedge to misuse and waste the players given to him, he bears just as much responsibility for “overseeing” John Mirabelli as he ran the draft from 2000 to 2007. As we sit here today, the pitcher drafted in those 8 years with the most wins (Sowers) for the Indians with 13 career wins also possesses a career ERA+ of 86 and the player drafted in those 8 years with the most HR (Garko) as an Indian with 48 now owns a .796 career OPS as a 28-year-old 1B.

There’s no question that mistakes have been made and as much as most of this was foreseen coming into the season (and exposed to the bone by injuries), the cupboard to me still doesn’t look as bare as most make it out to be. Pardon me while I put on these rose-colored glasses, but I don’t see the Indians suddenly entering a period of massive losing if only based on what the Indians lineup should look like at the end of July, with the current ages listed in parentheses below:
C – Martinez (30)
1B – LaPorta (24)
2B – Valbuena (23)
SS – Cabrera (23)
3B – Peralta (27)
LF – Brantley (22)
CF – Sizemore (26)
RF – Choo (26)
DH – Hafner (32)

Yes, the offense hasn’t been the problem this year and if you’ll remember, I was the one decrying the shortage in the bullpen and rotation as this season ground to a halt, but look again at that list above and see how the Indians have put themselves in this position, offensively at least.

The players acquired via trade include everyone listed above but Martinez and Peralta…every other piece of talent that the Indians should expect to be in their lineup some time after the All-Star Break came from elsewhere, and for whom?
Yes, CC and Colon…but also Broussard, Perez, Gutierrez, and Einar Diaz.
And, yes, the reason for that needed infusion of talent that was needed is directly related to a failure to acquire and develop young talent from within (which is precisely what we’re seeing bear out in the pitching staff), but if you’re talking about who’s acquiring that talent, you’re back to the GM whose moves to counteract problems (that truthfully shouldn’t have been problems in the first place) earn him some credit for the young talent on the offensive side of things. How he manages to do the same for the pitching side of things will likely determine his ultimate fate but the track record of overcoming obstacles (albeit self-inflicted obstacles) is there in terms of augmentation of the roster.

Ultimately, however, the culpability falls to Shapiro whose attitude of “trust us, we know what we’re doing” has come crashing around him as staying the course and sticking with people around him who seemingly do not know what they’re doing (or are some of the most historically unlucky people in history) have laid waste to the best laid plans.

If we’ve been told to trust, the statute of limitations on that has run out and the state of love and trust is moving to revolution as moves need to be made in this organization as the stability and the status quo that have run amok (and run in the wrong direction for too long) have taken us to the path that we now find ourselves upon.

Is it hopeless and are we readying ourselves for another 40 years in the desert?
I don’t think so, but a change in culture is needed and while that change may not go all the way to the top of the organization (yet), a message that the results of this season and last are unacceptable needs to be sent. If that means that Wedge is jettisoned, so be it with the idea that finding a suitable long-term replacement is not going to be as easy as simply picking up a phone in late June and seeing if Option #1 has some free time.

Change is needed and not just for change’s sake and every day that passes until a change (any change) is made makes the idea that 2010 becomes another rebuilding or re-loading year all the more obvious, where hopes and prayers take the place of known quantities and realities…because hopes and prayers are all we have now in the face of a very cold reality.

Lazy Sunday - The Aftermath

Walking out of Wrigley Field, head hanging for the second straight day as Cubs’ fans alternately told me to “go back to Cleveland” and commiserated with my experiences of the last two days in a feeling that they know all too well, the words were inescapable in my head…it’s over.

Whatever hope that may have taken up the smallest recess of my body that the 2009 season was salvageable disappeared as Kerry Wood’s offering hit the backstop as the stark realization that the Indians, outmanned as a team and outmaneuvered on every occasion by the opposing manager in this series, had dropped their 5th straight to once again fall 12 games under .500 and erase any thought that a “run” or a gallant sprint to the finish would represent anything more than too little too late at this point.

Trace it to Prince Fielder’s GS off of Rafael Perez if you like as Monday’s eminently winnable game against the Brewers served as the dropping point as the bullpen, mismanaged and ineffective regardless of whom was thrown out there, was where it had been for the better part of the early season – as the reason for the lost season.

Words are difficult to find to express my frustration as Cubs’ fans (and non-Cubs’ fans) asked me around the trough (yes, they still have troughs for urinals) if the Indians’ manager had any concept of how to match-up pitchers or how to use strategy in a baseball game. At one point, a White Sox fan pulled me aside and told me that he wanted to cheer for the Tribe against his hated Cubs, but could simply no longer bring himself to do it as he knew what the outcome was going to be…and this was after the 8th inning of Friday’s game.

What that White Sox fan was trying to avoid – inevitable heartbreak – is something that we, as Indians’ fans, cannot escape this season and as we wait for the inevitable firing of The Atomic Wedgie and the moves to come, we’re only left with what-ifs and what-could-have-beens in what is now unquestionably a lost summer.

Nevertheless, because it is Sunday and because The DiaBride has given me the hall pass to sit in her parents’ house and hammer out a Lazy Sunday (it is Fathers’ Day, after all), let’s roll right into it, if only to divert my attention from the disappointment that the games cast upon the last two days sitting under the Chicago sun, that even prodigious amounts of Old Style were unable to brighten:

It seems like the hot topic on everyone’s mind as we pass through mid-June is which teams are going to be looking to add pieces and which teams will be looking to move pieces prior to the July 31st trade deadline, and Kenny Rosenthal (not surprisingly) has the Indians as a seller. Reading the piece more closely however, reveals that he has them as a seller in terms of DeRosa and Pavano (assuming he’s healthy) as neither really factors into the long-terms plans for the team and has them moving players that DO factor into the 2010 plans (Vic and CP Lee) only if an overwhelming offer comes around.

Will that overwhelming offer come around for Lee though, as Jon Heyman states that the SP market is going to be thin and Bedard and Halladay just hit the DL? A bounty could likely be had for him, but to me there’s no reason to trade Lee unless you can legitimately get an arm that can slot into his spot at the top of the Indians’ rotation from Day 1 and would remain under club control for the next 4 or 5 years…and players like that simply don’t exist on the open market and the teams that have them certainly aren’t anxious to move them.

In fact, the best piece that I’ve read on the “Should They or Shouldn’t They” debate for CP Lee comes via Joel Sherman, who nails the argument that, realistically, Cliff Lee shouldn’t be moved under any circumstances:
So if the Indians trade Lee between now and July 31, they are not only damning any long-shot chance they have to get back into the AL Central race this year. They also are pretty much erasing contention next season. That might be more tolerable if they were playing in the AL East, where they would have to be thinking of ways to contend for the long term against the Red Sox and Yankees. But they play in the tepid AL Central.

"There is no reason in the world they can't compete in their division next year," an AL executive said. "At some point it has to be about winning and not selling off parts for a sunny day in the future."… With the chance to get healthier both physically and against a weaker set of opponents, the Indians want more time to try and contend in 2009. They can't do that without Lee, and they almost certainly couldn't contend without him in 2010 either.

While I know that Sherman is a NY Post writer who has generally made a name for himself in the Midwest as a little too NY-centric, anybody who feels that Lee should be moved this year or this off-season should simply have this piece placed in front of their nose to see the reasoning for keeping CP Lee laid out in a clear and complete manner.

Not to be outdone by Sherman, Jayson Stark lays the wood to the idea that Clifton’s headed anywhere and (rightfully) throws El Capitan into the same boat before effectively putting the argument that DeRosa is the biggest piece of bait in the Indians tackle box:
Can we pull the plug on the Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez rumors now? They're irreplaceable players, with affordable options for next year. So the Indians have no incentive to trade them, unless the payback is insane. That makes DeRosa far and away the best chip in town if they decide to sell. He's already up to 13 homers, 48 RBIs and 46 runs scored. And only six other players in the whole sport can match him in all three categories, none of them third basemen or second basemen. So Mark DeRosa gets more marketable by the minute.

This is about as good of a quick synopsis as I’ve seen in terms of identifying how important Vic and CP Lee are to the team next year and how DeRosa remains the biggest chip for the team, for whom changes are most certainly coming.

What type of changes?
According to what Terry Pluto is hearing from the Tribe, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Mike Brantley up topside soon with Trevor Crowe (of whom I was asked by a Cubs’ fan to describe when he pinch-hit for Garko yesterday, to which I responded, “a pinch runner who can’t hit”…when the guy said, “I thought that was Josh Barfield”, I sunk a little lower in my seat) being sent down and Ben Francisco being relegated to 4th OF status.

Pluto also reports that Wyatt Toregas is getting rave reviews in AAA and one has to think that with LaPorta playing 1B in Columbus and Gimenez’s ability to catch as well as Torregas being an option that something may be afoot with Kelly Shoppach in terms of him being an auxiliary part.

As for what the Indians should be doing, I’ll try to throw something together in terms of what the Indians might be able to salvage in this lost season, some of which is brought up by Tyler Chirdon at the LGT, who has a couple of little snippets about a few relievers who were thought to potentially be heavy contributors in the Indians’ 2009 bullpen (Mayday Meloan and Stomp Lewis) and what, exactly, seems to have gone wrong with each. Not to throw a total damper on the day with the piece, though, his bit about Mike Brantley…um, yeah, it has me excited.

On the topic of prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus fame (he’s their Minor League guru) was kind enough to join Tony Lastoria and I on this week’s edition of Smoke Signals, and if you’re blown away by the depth that Tony goes into in his analysis of Indians’ prospects (and put me in the “blown away” category every time I read his stuff or talk to him), to hear Goldstein go on about Weglarz, Chisenhall, Carlos Santana, and others is simply unbelievable as Goldstein knows this stuff about EVERY prospect in MLB and speaks, at length, about all of these Indians’ guys with the knowledge and passion that we’ve grown to love with Tony.
Quite simply, it’s a must listen…if only to brighten up your day.

As for me, thank goodness that I decided against going to the Sunday game prior to the trip as I don’t think the dread that filled me the last two days, knowing that the other shoe was on its way to the floor, is something that I want to continue to feel.

Finally, thanks to everyone who came out to Sheffield’s after the game yesterday as the Tribe was well-represented and while rumors that the owners of Great Lakes Brewing Company were in the bar were never confirmed, to meet serial posters like milwaukeeTribe and s_bricker, as well as hang with site stalwarts Cy Slapnicka and t-bone, was unbelievably cool for me, if only to talk some Tribe after a tough weekend with some guys who were feeling it just as much as me.

See you on the other side as I’m heading back to Cleveland tomorrow…not sure if I can say the plans are as concrete for The Atomic Wedgie to accompany the team to Pittsburgh for Tuesday’s tilt.

Tommies from 'Sconnie

Coming to you LIVE from the satellite office in Shorewood (always up to no good), Wisconsin in anticipation of a weekend spent watching the Erie Warriors compete in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, let’s get off some Tomahawks before getting off down I-94 towards Illinois:
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After struggling through a couple of ESPN broadcasts of games on Sunday and Monday, in which the production value was unbelievable (OPS listed for each player, relevant stats by count for each hitter listed as pitching count evolves, etc.) but is ultimately undermined by the wet blanket of idiocy provided by Steve Phillips, I’ve now been in the ‘Waukee for the final two Tribe games here and caught them both on FS Wisconsin. Out-of-towners are very aware of the difference in watching an Indians broadcast emanating from the North Coast versus one coming from the Tribe’s opposing team, but if you’re not used to it (and I am not), it’s fascinating to listen to opposing broadcasters talk about the team.

Some of their insight is nonsensical (at one point Ben Francisco was referred to as “Cleveland’s speedy CF”) while other tidbits are downright depressing, if only because of the truth involved (at one point, the Brewers’ broadcast team stated that “with this Indians’ bullpen, you never really feel out of the game”), and even others make you question what in the world the Indians are doing (they couldn’t stop talking about how Brewers’ hitters couldn’t wait to face Huff because they had JUST seen Sowers the night before with a similar repertoire).

All told, it certainly provides a different perspective in terms of how the Indians are viewed from afar and what the perception about the team is outside of Northeast Ohio, even if it means that everyone else in the room is cheering while you’re dying a little on the inside.
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Staying in the realm of the Milwaukee media, there was a blurb in the Journal-Sentinel on Wednesday that caught my attention. It went like this:
CLUBHOUSE CONFIDENTIAL
For the first time since left-handed-hitting Mat Gamel was called up from Class AAA Nashville in mid-May, manager Ken Macha started him against a left-handed pitcher (Jeremy Sowers). “Doug told me he hit left-handed hitters very well in Triple-A,” Macha explained, referring to general manager Doug Melvin. Yes, he did. Gamel hit .425 against lefties at Nashville (17 for 40) with a 1.465 OPS. He batted .291 against right-handers.

You may remember Gamel’s name as his was a name that was bandied about when the Brewers began their interest in CC Sabathia, not to mention him being one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, whose deficiency to this point has been his defense and where he will eventually end up in the field. But all of that aside, look again at the amount of time that Gamel has been up in MLB before getting a start against a LHP, and read again how it took some urging from the GM for Gamel to get a start against a LHP.

Is this even possible?
Could a big-league manager really not be privy to this information as to how a particular player performed in AAA?
A quick search online yielded these numbers for Gamel in AAA this year:
Gamel vs. LHP
.425 BA / .490 OBP / .975 SLG / 1.465 OPS

Gamel vs. RHP
.291 BA / .404 OBP / .494 SLG / .898 OPS

Obviously, sample size plays a role here (the numbers against LHP are in 40 AB), but Gamel’s had 68 AB since his call-up in mid-May and 12 (!) of them have come against LHP…why, because he’s a LH hitter and Macha is too “old-school” to think that a young LH hitter could hit LHP at the MLB level?

Why is this relevant to the Indians?
Remember when Matt LaPorta was called up and the Indians stated that he would face LHP in some sort of platoon, with the only plausible reason for this arrangement being LaPorta being RH? While the platoon didn’t exactly happen (LaPorta was ignored against both LHP and RHP and left to rot on the bench for games at a time for probably the first time in his baseball career while Dellucci and Garko continued to see AB at his expense), this idea seems to be prevalent for young players, logic be damned.

However, assuming that the RH hitting LaPorta makes his way topside soon enough (the Super-2 thing, which was mishandled by the Front Office and the field manager, should be cleared soon), if the inclination that he’ll only face LHP again arises, let me take the opportunity to preemptively illustrate how absurd that notion is for LaPorta, based on what he’s doing in Columbus:
LaPorta vs. LHP
.269 BA / .387 OBP / .538 SLG / .925 OPS

LaPorta vs. RHP
.325 BA / .383 OBP / .550 SLG / .933 OPS

With numbers that are nearly identical across the board facing both LHP and RHP, if LaPorta (again, assuming he’s back topside soon) is “protected” against playing against any type of pitcher while a player like a Garko continues to face the RHP that his “track record” (upon which the justification of him playing at all is based upon) is horrific against…well, I just don’t know what I’ll do.

The logic of not exposing players like Gamel and LaPorta to a particular kind of pitcher to “protect” them more than likely, in fact, stunts their development as it prevents them from being exposed to all types of MLB pitchers and, in the process, runs the chance of throwing them off of the fast-track that they’ve rightfully found themselves on.
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In terms of who will be filling out the lineup card once LaPorta makes his return (and he has played 7 of his last 10 games in Columbus at 1B…so, um…it’s time to make sure your affairs are in order Kelly, or at least stop thinking you’re going to catch anyone but Clifton Phifer), the answer is getting a little murkier with each passing day as now always even-handed Terry Pluto has cast his lot with the growing “time for a new voice” crowd.

What’s different about Pluto’s indictment of Wedge is that it doesn’t come with the baggage of anti-Wedgisms that are prevalent in many of the other things that you read about why Wedge may no longer be the man for the job. There is no mention of “The Franchise” Brandon Phillips or Dellichaels or even a man-crush on Lacey Cake; rather what makes Pluto’s piece compelling is that it deals only in the here and now and points out the major changes that Wedge has made recently in terms of how he deals with his players in the media and his sudden propensity to throw one player after another under the bus when in the past a harsh word was rarely uttered with the caveat that “this stuff doesn’t need to be aired in the public”.

Now, it’s being aired very publicly as The Atomic Wedgie has now called out Peralta, Shoppach, and Carmona (not mentioned in the Pluto piece, but condemned by Wedge for reporting to camp out of shape the last two years) with his comments cutting a lot deeper than the normal “these guys are pros, they know what they need to do” Wedge-speak that have laced his comments to the media for years now.

That change, and not anything that’s happening on the field (as ugly as it may be) to me is the reason that a change may be coming. Wedge’s comments about his players are suddenly sounding like a guy who feels like he’s backed into a corner and is deflecting blame away from himself on onto the players that he’s charged to manage. Obviously, there’s plenty of blame to go around, and certainly the players bear some responsibility for the mess of the season, as do injuries and questionable player management (both during games and in lineup cards) throughout the season.

Generally, a managerial change in MLB will occur on an off day, today of which is the 3rd for the Indians since April 20th. There’s an off day scheduled once a week for the next three weeks, so if the struggles continue, those storm clouds that seem to be gathering may be finding their mark soon enough.
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Back to more concrete (and frankly more pressing) matters, a while back I mentioned that there will be a group of us getting together at a bar called Sheffield’s (which is a few short blocks away from Wrigley) after Saturday afternoon’s game to hang out and hopefully celebrate a Tribe victory triggered by a DeRosa HR and sealed by a Kerry Wood save.

I know that a number of Chicagoans or people visiting the Windy One for the series have e-mailed me or contacted me to let me know that they’ll be there, so it should be a great time to just meet up and talk some Tribe over some tasty adult beverages.


I’ll be there in my vintage Sizemore jersey (with The DiaBride, who will be observing from a safe distance), so be sure to say hello to me and dissect the vagaries of our beloved Indians over a drink or two at Sheffield’s (named by Esquire Magazine as one of the best bars in America) or just come to hang out with other Tribe fans and enjoy what should be a beautiful afternoon in Wrigleyville.

Time to get down there and let your Indians’ flag fly over Chicago.

Hope to see some DiaTribers there…

Head v. Heart

As the Indians season rolls on and the calendar keeps flipping, a dichotomy has emerged within me in terms of how I am viewing this evolving 2009 season. On one hand (call it my head), I see an eminently flawed team, now trying to overcome injury and stick around long enough to make their suddenly-patented 2nd half run. However, in my heart, I want to believe that this flawed team, seemingly going uphill, attempting to get back in the race against all odds can pull this off by getting healthy and by taking advantage of their second half schedule and the soft underbelly of MLB that is the AL Central.

Both parts of me (head and heart) have the ability to present compelling arguments and, at the risk of sounding schizophrenic, here’s a little glimpse into the battle within:

Heart: How about them Indians, baby! We’re on a roll, making up some ground in the Central, winning with smoke and mirrors and Matt Herges. Look out AL Central, here we come!

Head: “Making up ground” where, exactly – this Indians team is still in last place in the AL Central and is now closing in on the 70-game mark with the 3rd worst record in the AL and the 2nd worst team ERA in the AL. I keep hearing this argument to “just wait” until the Indians make their run, but how many times does it need to be pointed out that they’re at the bottom of the worst division in baseball for anyone to realize that they’re…well, that they’re in last place in the worst division in baseball.

Heart: But that’s just it, this division is so bad, that even mediocrity may be able to get it done for the Indians because the AL Central is weak and none of these teams is going to run away with the division. Look around the division – the Tigers are winning because Edwin Jackson has an ERA more than 2 runs lower than what he put up in Tampa last year and because Rick Porcello is a wunderkind who at some point is likely to hit an innings threshold, the Twins are winning with an otherworldly combination of Mauer and Morneau and Kevin Slowey’s pitching and not much else, the White Sox are a team that whose principal hitters are receiving AARP advertisements in the mail and whose pitching isn’t strong enough to overcome their shortcomings offensively, while the Royals have the arms to make a run at this thing, but can’t put together any semblance of a potent offense to even keep things close. If the Indians are flawed, so is every other team in the division and no team looks to have that stretch in them where they’re just going to run away with the division.

Head: You know, I keep hearing this argument, but if the AL Central is so weak and the Indians are poised to stay in this and “make this run”…well, why are they still in last place with three teams to still leapfrog ahead of to get to 2nd place even? It’s one thing to be chasing down one team or two teams and winning while hoping that other team or other teams are losing, but it’s quite another thing to see that the Indians have to be winning consistently AND four teams ahead of them have to be losing at a pace that allows them to get back into it.

Heart: Point taken, but take a look at how many games each team in the AL Central has played against the AL East and the AL West and their respective records in those games:
Against AL East
Tigers – 14 games (4-10)
Twins – 22 games (6-16)
White Sox – 14 games (5-9)
Royals – 17 games (7-10)
Indians – 26 games (12-14)

Against AL West
Tigers – 18 games (14-4)
Twins – 17 games (10-7)
White Sox – 16 games (7-9)
Royals – 10 games (4-6)
Indians – 3 games (0-3)
If we can agree that the AL East is the class of the AL with 4 of the 5 teams sporting records of .500 or greater, the Indians have played 12 more games against the East than the Tigers and the White Sox, both of whom have already struggled in their brief times against the East and have only played 3 games against the West, against whom both the Tigers and Twins boosted their overall records.

Since these things all come out in the wash in terms of divisions playing each other an equal amount of times (and realizing that winning games against AL Central teams is more important than anything), once this Interleague madness is over the Indians should be looking at a 2nd half schedule that they can take advantage of while their divisional rivals will be staring down the barrel of the schedule that the Indians limped through over the first 40% of the season.

Head: OK, so they’re poised to make this BIG run…with Jamey Carroll leading off and Luis Valbuena and the everyday SS. Yep, sounds like everything is turning the Indians’ way.

Heart: Hey, don’t knock Carroll, who happens to be nestled between El Capitan and The BLC on the team in OBP, just because he doesn’t look the role of an everyday player. In fact, he’s done more than his part to keep the Indians close in this thing, just like DeRosa, and Cabrera (before the injury) as players who have stepped up into the void created by Sizemore’s ineffectiveness and injury, Jhonny’s inconsistency, and The Atomic Wedgie’s predilection for playing mediocre players when better alternatives exist. Beyond the performance of those guys that have stepped up, it looks like this team finally getting healthy with Hafner back and Sizemore perhaps returning soon to everyday action.

Head: Stop, stop, stop…I’ve heard this one before – once the team gets healthy, they’re just going to bulldoze their way through the second half. But who’s saying that Hafner can play everyday or that Sizemore is legitimately healthy? Aren’t these the same guys, who didn’t have surgery this year to correct any problems, that were on the roster when Spring Training broke and “contributed” to the Tribe’s awful April?

Heart: Fine, I’ll give you that…nobody knows what Hafner’s shoulder can take or what Grady’s going to look like; but with Laffey coming back soon and Westbrook (bump in the road in his rehab considered) maybe coming back to contribute, the rotation could get right again soon which would certainly help things out.

Head: Wait, let me get this straight – now you’re counting on the season being saved two pitchers coming off of injury, one of them having a Tommy John surgery done only a year ago and with news that his rehab hit a “bump in the road”? These are the saviors for the season…a guy who hasn’t pitched in a year and a young LHP coming off of the dreaded oblique strain injury? What’s next, the assertion that a healthy Scotty Lewis will go all Francisco Liriano, circa 2006, to lead the Indians to the playoffs? A little optimistic about these guys aren’t we?

Heart: Maybe, but with the continued maturation of Dave Huff and Jeremy Sowers looking like he’s finally putting together some quality starts, as long as Pavano goes back to forgetting that he’s Carl Pavano and CP Lee keeps throwing like he is, all the Indians need to do is get some reinforcement to stabilize the rotation. Whether that come from Laffey or Lewis or Westbrook, as long as one of them can step up and stabilize the middle-to-back-end of the rotation, the Indians will finally boast a respectable staff.

Head: Fine, I’m not going to continue to argue with you on the hopes and dreams that you have for the rotation and just give it to you. But, haven’t we seen this before though this season – suddenly the rotation will get right and something else will break down, like the clock striking midnight on Herges, Vizcaino, and Aquino, who all suddenly turn back into pumpkins, which is exactly what we may have seen on Monday night?

Heart: If you’re willing to concede my optimism on the rotation, I’ll give you your pessimism on the bullpen. I have no idea how this batch of relievers finally became effective and, with Betancourt out with what looks to be a major groin injury, Perez an absolute mess, and Jenny Lewis only showing up on the side of a milk carton, those bullpen problems could become just that again very quickly.

Head: I suppose this is the part when you tell me that the Indians can always trade DeRosa for a bullpen arm to stabilize the bullpen a little bit as he’s a man without a position and that he has more value to a team not named the Indians because of his versatility.

Heart: Sure, we can do that now. The fact is, as well as DeRosa is playing, once Sizemore and Cabrera return to play CF and SS, the Indians will move Francisco back to LF, keep Choo in RF on an everyday basis, and since they’ve shown no interest in DeRosa playing 2B and seem to have committed to Jhonny playing 3B, where is DeRosa going to play everyday…and don’t say 1B.

Head: So, let’s take the player with the most HR on the team, the 2nd most RBI on the team, and 3rd highest OPS on the team for players with 200 AB or more and flip him because he “has more value to a team not named the Indians”…sign me up for that one!

Heart: No, you’re oversimplifying it. The fact is that if Cabrera and Sizemore come back, DeRosa’s a man without an everyday position (though the argument that he should be the everyday LF can be made) and if a starter comes back to stabilize the rotation, the only real ongoing concern may be the bullpen. Even there, if the relievers that have thrived there for a month now can somehow keep this up, the Indians could move DeRosa to net an arm and still not affect their team that greatly.

Head: Go back and look at that above - “IF Cabrera and Sizemore…”, “IF a starter comes back to stabilize the rotation…”, “IF the relievers that have thrived…” and so on. I hate to do this to you, but “If ifs and buts where candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.” You’re living in this world of hopes and dreams that are all predicated on these things MAYBE happening or everything breaking just right for the Indians in a season that everything has broken horribly for them. Am I to believe that suddenly everything is going to turn around and this team is just magically turn into a contender after looking like a pretender all year?

Heart: No, that’s too much of a stretch, but you’re looking for the 1995 Indians team to rise from the ashes here when that’s not what is needed to win this AL Central this year. The Indians only need to stick around in the division and make up some games every week on the teams ahead of them by taking advantage of a favorable 2nd-half schedule and what should be improved health. I’m not looking for a miracle or a “Merry Christmas” here, just a steady climb up the AL Central to make August and September a little more interesting in terms of enjoying a pennant race or at least a run at this thing.

Head: Fine, you just go on living that pipe dream as you watch this flawed team tread water for the next two months, I’m going to miss you in reality.

Heart: Just know that I’m still saving your seat in the bandwagon that you’re going to be asking me about in a month or so when the Indians have pushed their way back into your mind and into the divisional race.
Hey, hey, hey…Let’s Go Tribe!

Tomahawks Aimed at Third Place

Passing the Royals in the standings (hopefully for good), it’s time to set our sights another step up that ladder – 3rd place in the Central. With the idea that the Indians are have to go one rung at a time, let’s get off with some tomahawks:
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The big news of the week was the MLB Draft occurring over the course of a couple of days, which is really just like the NFL Draft except for the fact that there’s no Mel Kiper, Jr. involved. Oh, and you’ve never heard of 99.9% of these guys prior to the Draft and the next time that you may hear one of their names is in about 2 or 3 years.

Obviously, that’s going a little overboard in terms of minimizing the draft and its impact on an organization; but the MLB Draft is an oddity in terms of looking at where players are drafted and which players are actually the most significant acquisitions. To wit, the Indians’ second pick last year, Trey Haley (#76 overall) received a $1.25M signing bonus, or about $50,000 more than their first pick, Lonnie Chisenhall (#29 overall). The player they gave the third biggest signing bonus to last year, TJ House (who got $750K as a signing bonus, didn’t get drafted until the 16th round, and the 22nd round pick, Bryce Stowell, got the 5th biggest bonus…more than the 5th round pick Zach Putnam and the same amount as the 7th round pick Tim Fedroff.

If all of that sounds confusing it is, but what I think I’m getting at is that it takes a while to parse through what exactly happened in the MLB Draft until the actual signings take place and information begins to emerge regarding who signs for what.

All of that being said, looking through Tony Lastoria’s snapshot analysis of the picks that the Indians did make, it’s hard not to notice these facts via Tony:
- 20 of the top 30 picks were pitchers
- 28 of the top 30 picks were from college
- No High School player was taken until the 24th round

With the caveat that the casual fan doesn’t really have a good sense of which players are available and if the draft is “heavy” on a particular position (where are you Todd McShay?), there is probably something that can be gleaned from the way that the Indians drafted. That is that the Indians saw their depth issues in the organization, particularly with pitching, and decided to add arms that would factor in over a shorter amount of time and might be able to move quickly into serious consideration at the upper levels rather quickly.

What that means for a guy like Alex White or Joe Gardner (our guest on Smoke Signals) remains to be seen, but the advancement of a Zach Putnam to AA only a year after being drafted must have played a role in the Indians hopefully filling out their depth in the bullpen and rotation with some arms, preferably power arms like White and Gardner. According to Tony, both White and Gardner have a 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, sinker for each) which could be a factor in both ultimately slotting in the bullpen rather quickly which, as we’ve seen this year, is a priority and one that may have been addressed this week in the MLB Draft.
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Back topside, here’s a little amusing story about what it feels like to be an Indians fan these days – even if it’s a 2 ½ year old Indians fan. For some background, I should mention that The DiaperTribe is now at a stage where everything merits a question and has developed an irrational attachment to one Grady Sizemore…yes, irrational even by my measure. He sleeps under a Grady blanket, says that he’s Grady whenever we play catch (according to him, Grady is the pitcher, the hitter, the catcher, AND the umpire), and says prayers for Grady every night…right after Grandma and Grandpa.

Anywho, as Tuesday night’s game started against the Royals, he asked me if Grady was playing and (somehow) knows that he bats first. No sooner could I get out of my mouth that Grady was, in fact, not playing than did The DiaperTribe spot Francisco striding to the plate.

His reaction was not unlike what we’ve all been feeling for a while now:
DiaperTribe – “No Francisco daddy…me want Grady!”
Me – “Grady’s still hurt, buddy.”
As a quick aside here, around these parts we’re blaming Grady’s elbow injury on him banging it on the table because a 2 ½ year old has trouble grasping inflamed lining around the left elbow.
DiaperTribe (in the whining voice that is becoming the bane of my existence) – “Me want Grady better…no Francisco.”
Me – “Maybe Grady will play later.”
DiaperTribe (tears welling) – “No later…me want Grady now.”
Me – “Tell me about it. Now stop crying and let’s work on that curveball.”
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Watching this lineup get shuffled around on a nightly basis in terms of who’s playing where and with a different lineup seemingly every night, is anyone else impressed by the Indians are 3rd in MLB in runs scored with only three players with an OPS in the top half among the 170 qualified players in MLB? That would be, by the by, El Capitan (20th in MLB in OPS), The BLC (48th in MLB in OPS), and Asdrubal just making the cut (79th in MLB in OPS).

How is this happening?
Maybe The Atomic Wedgie does, in fact, know what he’s doing with this lineup. Lord knows he does one whale of a job running the Parks & Recreation department of Pawnee, Indiana.

Wait…that’s not him?
You mean he doesn’t grow a mustache in the offseason and work a second job like Lou Brown used to sell tires?
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Speaking of Lou Brown, is it too early to say that it’s going to take 85 wins to capture the AL Central and the Indians are going to need 58 wins to get there? Is it too early to see a little cardboard cut-out to get this thing into gear because (and I’m paraphrasing here), “I figure it's gonna take 32 more victories to win this thing. Every time we win, we peel a square.”



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That’s it for me for the week.
No Lazy Sunday this weekend as I’ll be in Dayton for a college reunion (to claim my rightful spot at the bw-3 on Brown before some late night Tim’s hijinks), which will also be attended by the designated pinch-hitter for Lazy Sundays, Mr. t-bone.

See you when we’re perched in 3rd. looking to track down the Twins for 2nd.

Holding Onto The Ladder

Is anyone else finding themselves going from soaring highs to abysmal lows with this Indians’ team from day to day, with very little in-between ground? After a solid win in which the team puts it all together, the thought process enters my mind that the eminently winnable AL Central looks feasible to take, only to be replaced by the thought that all is lost the very next day after a loss in which the bats go silent or the starter implodes to questioning the whole season and, even deeper than that, the whole organization?

Obviously, an MLB season is not a nice straight line in terms of game to game emotion, but watching this team every game is a struggle – from the frustration of seeing the lineup posted and seeing which amalgamation of complementary and fringe players are playing where, to gripping every pitch thrown by a “retread” reliever, to just waiting for the other shoe to drop in any game – basically, waiting for the dirt to be thrown on the grave that the 2009 feels like on those down days.

But, guess what?
Despite that sickening feeling and despite that the fact that the team is limping and flawed, this Indians team is somehow making up some ground in the AL Central. No, the “ascent” has certainly not been pretty or a pleasure to watch, but since the Indians’ low-water mark of 14-26 (which they “achieved” after the Kerry Wood implosion in KC), here are the records for the AL Central:
Cleveland – 12-8 (.600 winning percentage)
Minnesota – 10-9 (.526 winning percentage)
Chicago – 11-10 (.523 winning percentage)
Detroit – 11-10 (.523 winning percentage)
Kansas City – 3-15 (.167 winning percentage)

The Indians, playing through injuries and dealing with the loss of ineffective players, demoted to work through their issues, are slowly making their way up the ladder in the AL Central, the only thing that really matters right now. Step one was accomplished on Tuesday night, working out of the cellar and seeing the Tigers get rolled by the Red Sox and Angels and seeing the broken down (and seemingly already beaten) White Sox up close and personal this past weekend, one realizes that the Indians have been playing just as well (or poorly, depending upon how you look at it) as the rest of the division…and that none of these teams is going to run away and hide with the AL Central.

Essentially, all the teams have come back to the pack in terms of playing at or near .500 baseball and the Indians, as imperfect as they are and as unimpressive as they look on paper, are putting together some quality baseball games to close the gap in the Central.

The thin rotation has shown signs of stability with Lee and Pavano leading the way and Huff and Sowers showing promise in their last few starts. Yes, Tomo Ohka is in the rotation, but Ohka will only get a few more starts before Jake Westbrook is allegedly ready to return to the rotation, with Aaron Laffey following closely behind to either replace the pitcher who has proven himself to be less effective between Huff and Sowers or to return to the bullpen if a greater need is found there and Huff and Sowers are able to cobble together consistency over the next month. Could the Indians simply hang on in their rotation until the cavalry arrives and keep it close in the Central until the rotation becomes whole with Lee, Pavano, Westbrook, Laffey, and Huff?

Who knows, but even if the rotation has their off days, the Indians’ offense may be able to carry the load. Inexplicably, the team is third in MLB in runs scored with only three offensive players with an OPS over .800 with 75 or more AB (El Capitan, The BLC, and Asdrubal) and won a game on Sunday, scoring 8 runs (!) with a lineup that looked like this:
Francisco – RF
Carroll – 2B
Martinez – DH
Choo – LF
DeRosa – 3B
Shoppach – C
Gimenez – 1B
Valbuena – SS
Crowe – CF

See what I mean now by the players designed to be complementary pieces being asked to fill key roles on the team and the AAA players being asked to step in immediately to become complementary pieces?

But, the results are there and can’t be argued with as the Indians offense, somehow…some way, is putting together an impressive body of work with Sizemore out (and really not 100% to begin with), Cabrera out, Hafner not being able to play everyday, Garko revealing himself to be a platoon player who is a defensive liability, and Shoppach striking out an alarming rate.
Is the augmentation of this lineup happening from the minors saving the season?

I wouldn’t go that far yet, but some of the players contributing like Gimenez and Valbuena (and even to a lesser extent Crowe) are playing the roles of the complementary players pretty well. Rather than giving too much credit to the youngsters, the onus is being carried by the heart of the lineup, namely Martinez and Choo, who are providing stability while players like Carroll and DeRosa are stepping up, in terms of production, at a time when their contributions are badly needed. If they can continue to excel until Hafner can get into a groove, and until Cabrera can come back healthy, the Indians may be able to continue this surprising offensive onslaught.

As for the Achilles’ heel of the team to date, the bullpen, the group of veteran “retreads” that saved the Indians’ relief corps from themselves continues to provide steady and consistent innings. While realizing that Matt Herges is currently the 8th inning set-up guy (and is doing one whale of a job doing it) and seeing guys like Aquino and Vizcaino come into games to protect a lead and succeed, it’s time to acknowledge that these vets have saved the bullpen. While the “save” may not have been expected and while it may not last, Rafael Perez has returned with some semblance of his former self and Joe Smith has now returned, so the bullpen may finally be getting right and deep.

All told, the Indians are hanging on ever so loosely and, while it may not be according to plan, but the kinks are getting worked out and the Indians are keeping pace (and even climbing the divisional ladder) because they’re in the AL Central and not the AL East or AL West

Prior to Tuesday’s game, the Indians were 3 games back of 2nd in the AL Central with the rest of the division running in place and allowing the Indians to not become buried in this swampy mess of a division. With players potentially returning to the rotation (Westbrook and Laffey) and the lineup (Cabrera and Sizemore) from injury and perhaps more help coming from the minors to help the bullpen (Sipp, assuming he returns, and Putnam) and the lineup (LaPorta and perhaps even Brantley or Santana), the Indians find themselves attempting to stay close in the AL Central until they can get healthy and, let’s face it, get better.

Until that happens though, the Indians will continue to attempt to win games, or at least play .500, with a team that may not look pretty or merit much optimism; but they’ve been doing it for about three weeks now, much to the surprise of…well, everyone.

Lazy Sunday Trying to Tread Water

One step forward and two steps back is certainly not the way to make up ground in a race, but the Indians find themselves once again simply trying to tread water in an increasingly winnable AL Central…just maybe not winnable for them the way that injuries have forced their complementary players into core roles and their fringe players into complementary roles. As this all shakes out over the next three weeks though before the DL (hopefully) gets a little less crowded, let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday:

The big news of the week was the deep demotion of Carmona, whose apparent Faustian Bargain of 2007 has come due as he now finds himself under the hellishly hot summer sun in Arizona to find what has apparently left him. It seems as if the depths to which Carmona found himself sinking to with each passing start are just as deep as the Indians think Carmona’s problems appear to be as he’s not going to Columbus or Akron or even Lake County (and all of the “bright lights” there)…no, he’s going back to be rebuilt from the bottom up in the hopes that the 23-year-old pitcher whose 2007 season was on par with that of Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia can be found amongst the cacti.

Whether that can be accomplished or not remains to be seen, but there’s no question that this move was going to come if it wasn’t already overdue as ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer asserted, saying:
The only thing Carmona did well last year was keep the ball in the ballpark, which presumably was due to a combination of his sinking fastball and his unwillingness (or inability) to throw the ball through the strike zone…I suspect that the Carmona Experiment is over for not just today, but for some time. Whatever made Carmona a Cy Young candidate in 2007 seems to have completely disappeared. And now, every time Carmona pitches he just embarrasses himself and the rest of the organization.

Can anybody find the counter-argument to that?

Back on March 12th, I wrote this regarding Carmona’s importance to the Indians’ season:
As much hand-wringing as there has been about the middle-to-back-of-the-rotation (admittedly by me), I still think that the key to the Indians’ season is which Fausto Carmona shows up in 2009… as the difference between Carmona v.2008 and Carmona v.2007 showing up this year has the potential to be a huge factor in the difference between an AL Central Championship and irrelevance by the All-Star Break.

I think it’s fair to say that we have an answer on one of the counts at the beginning of June – that would be Carmona v.2008 and the “irrelevance by the All-Star Break” may not be far behind if this team can’t at least tread water until Westbrook and Laffey are (allegedly) ready to come back in about three weeks.

Terry Pluto hits on the descent of Carmona (amongst other things) and puts the ugly numbers out there for all to see in terms of his inability to throw strikes. The whole ordeal is frustrating, if not completely mystifying, but what the Indians are doing with him may be just what he needs and is not without precedent (as Pluto references in his piece) as Doc Halladay underwent a similar “rebuild” back in 2001, the comprehensive story of which can be found told very effectively here.

By the way, if anyone is in Goodyear reading this and spot this book (referenced in the Halladay story) arrive at the facility from a Cleveland address, please forward it along to Fausto.
Thanks.

Staying with rotational issues, one of the “ones that got away” that fans often bemoan can apparently be had for the “right price”, according to Ken Rosenthal, as the Orioles are listening to offers for Jeremy Guthrie. Depending upon what the Orioles are looking for in terms of a return, it would be interesting to see how the Indians’ brass approaches his alleged availability as they’re obviously intimately familiar with Guthrie and, now that he has blossomed into a middle-of-the-rotation starter (and don’t misread this as me saying that Guthrie is “the answer” for the rotation as his career ERA+ is 114), it would be an interesting return for a pitcher who the Indians had high hopes for and has turned into exactly the middle-of-the-rotation innings eater that we all took for granted with Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd in terms of performance and consistency for the past few years.

What would the Orioles be looking for?
Who knows and whether the Indians would have an interest in Guthrie just as he’s becoming arbitration-eligible is certainly up for debate – but it raises a good question in terms of how the Indians are likely going to be looking to make some moves to re-make their roster over the next few months.

By now, everyone’s pretty aware that the old George Costanza idea that “I think I figured out a way to get Griffey and Bonds…and it wouldn’t cost us that much” application to moving multiple players with limited ceilings for one great player is nothing more than a pipe dream. But is it possible that some of their more highly-touted prospects who play the same position as one another could become the bait that the Indians use to fill organization holes that have revealed themselves this season?

That is, if the Indians have what looks to be depth at the 1B/LF position in players like LaPorta, Mills, and Weglarz all in AA and AAA without even looking at guys like Brantley or Jordan Brown or the players already topside in Frisco and Garko, doesn’t it stand to reason that they may be able to deal from a position of depth to add some much-needed arms, even if these guys are included in some sort of a package to net some MLB-ready pitchers?

Whatever pieces they may eventually decide to be arbitrary or redundant, can I…um…make a case that Akron catcher Carlos Santana should be held pretty tightly?
Not sure if you’ve heard of this Matt Wieters fella who just came up to catch for the Orioles after topping nearly every prospect list going into the season. If you haven’t, here’s a piece that JoePos did on him with Bill James that puts how much hype he’s received into perspective.

OK, got that?
Check this:
Matt Wieters – AA Bowie 2008 – Age 22
.365 BA / .460 OBP / .625 SLG / 1.085 OPS with 12 HR, 14 2B, 38 BB, 29 K in 250 PA

Carlos Santana – AA Akron 2009 – Age 23
.284 BA / .417 OBP / .547 SLG / .964 OPS with 9 HR, 12 2B, 37 BB, 25 K in 192 PA

While Wieters numbers are a bit better, look at the HR, 2B, and BB/K rates of the two with Wieters having more plate appearances and know that Wieters BABIP in Bowie last year was .378 while Santana’s in Akron this year is .293, which is obviously going to have some bearing on the BA and OBP numbers to date.

While we may not see any websites like this pop up about Carlos Santana or see statements (shamelessly stolen from the linked site above and altered for my own pleasure) emerge that “Carlos Santana Sometimes Impatiently Homers From The On Deck Circle” and “Carlos Santana Picked Himself To Be The Best Man At His Wedding. It Was His Only Option”…um yeah, he still looks like the real deal he was purported to be.

Back to the burgeoning trading season that seemed to be kicked off with the McLouth deal, Nick Cafardo at Boston.com has an interesting piece taking a look at the landscape of what teams are looking for and what teams are offering as well as asking GM’s “when” the right time to make a deal is. Milwaukee GM Bob Melvin (who may have some interest in a certain Cleveland IF) has an interesting comment about multiple teams looking for hitting but not being willing to part with pitching to get it. Isn’t that the situation that the Indians likely find themselves up against in an attempt to look for MLB-ready arms?

Deeper in the Cafardo piece, he notes that Carl Pavano (if he were to be traded) could not be dealt until after June 15th (which is, of course in about a week) and touches on the Mark DeRosa trade rumors, saying that “there are still a lot of rumblings about his availability. With so many teams needing hitters and good chemistry guys, the Indians may have to consider a deal. The Giants are pounding the door for hitting, and DeRosa's name has popped up in their internal meetings. The Giants would part with lefty Jonathan Sanchez.”

Let’s see, Sanchez is a 26-year-old LHP who throws a low-90’s fastball and has compiled an ERA of 5.06 with a WHIP of 1.50 over the last two years starting in the dreadful NL West while walking 6.2 batters per 9 innings this year, which is a little higher than that of FAUSTO CARMONA’s 6.1 this year.
A soft-tossing LHP on the south side of 25 with control issues?
Pass.

With the 2009 Draft coming up on Tuesday (quick show of hands who knew that), now might be a good time to get an update on some of the principals of the 2008 Draft class, via Tyler Chirdon at the LGT. Tyler wrote a tremendous piece in the IA2K9 regarding how the amount of the signing bonuses doled out to the draftees/signees of the 2008 crop are a better indication of which players were thought most highly of after all of the signings were complete.

Finally, Indians’ fans everywhere bid a fond farewell to former owner Dick Jacobs, who passed away late this week. In my 32 years as an Indians’ fan, there have been players that have donned the Tribe uni and need only to be mentioned by their first name for recognition of their accomplishments on the field – Jimmy, Manny, Albert, Sandy, Omar, Kenny, Charlie, CC, Grady, Victor, and so on.

But none of these players would have existed in Cleveland if not for the one man about whom Terry Pluto so eloquently wrote about at his passing in terms of what he did for the city and for the Indians’ organization. For that reason, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dick Jacobs is the greatest Cleveland Indian of my lifetime.
Rest in Peace, Mr. Jacobs…and thank you.

Tomahawks Still Looking Up

Well, starting a crucial 9-game set against divisional foes with a 1-2 record is not ideal and watching the player that many identified as the key to the season in Fausto Carmona likely headed to the minors to see if he can find our beloved Focused Fausto somewhere between his ears.

Nevertheless, it’s time to watch those tomahawks fly…
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Watching Jeremy Sowers and Dave Huff log their most successful starts of the year to date with some guy with a fantastic beard behind the dish, I thought it might be interesting to see how all of the Indians’ starters are faring with different catchers calling the games for them.

Obviously, Lee always uses Shoppach and generally Carmona always uses Vic as their personal catchers; but did anyone realize that Shoppach has caught every one of Pavano’s innings this year as well?

I sure didn’t…and digging deeper, there may be something that these numbers tell us that foretell what the arrangement at C and 1B may look like for the foreseeable future. Here are the opposing hitters’ batting lines for each pitcher currently residing in the Indians’ rotation with the respective catchers calling their games through Wednesday’s game:
Lee
To Shoppach - .292 BA / .329 OBP / .375 SLG / .704 OPS in 349 plate appearances

Pavano
To Shoppach - .292 BA / .332 OBP / .452 SLG / .784 OPS in 268 plate appearances

Carmona
To Shoppach - .400 BA / .500 OBP / .867 SLG / 1.367 OPS in 18 plate appearances
To Martinez - .266 BA / .374 OBP / .399 SLG / .773 OPS in 259 plate appearances

Huff
To Shoppach - .333 BA / .350 OBP / .487 SLG / .837 OPS in 40 plate appearances
To Martinez - .412 BA / .487 OBP / .853 SLG / 1.340 OPS in 39 plate appearances

Sowers
To Shoppach - .188 BA / .381 OBP / .188 SLG / .568 OPS in 21 plate appearances
To Martinez - .298 BA / .375 OBP / .579 SLG / .954 OPS in 64 plate appearances

Noticing anything about those last two?
Now, how about the player that might re-enter the starting rotation once he’s healthy?
Laffey
To Shoppach - .258 BA / .303 OBP / .290 SLG / .593 OPS in 33 plate appearances
To Martinez - .255 BA / .375 OBP / .340 SLG / .715 OPS in 112 plate appearances

Yes, these are based on wildly small samples and how much of this is the pitcher or how much of it can be attributed to the match-ups in each game is up for debate, but there is an interesting trend that is obvious in these limited samples.

That is that Lee and Pavano always use Shoppach and, while the sample sizes may be small, here are the differences in OPS Against for the young LHP, whose numbers are better when throwing to ShopVac:
Laffey - .122 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C
Sowers - .386 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C
Huff - .503 OPS Against lower with Shoppach as C

Think now about Laffey coming back with the very real possibility that Carmona does go down to AAA to work on his mechanics – isn’t there a greater possibility of Show Pack catching more frequently with Victor at 1B more often if Shoppach has better results with Lee, Pavano, Sowers, Huff, and Laffey?

Remember how Sowers said that he felt comfortable throwing to Sal Fasano last year?
Maybe there’s something to this whole “personal catcher” thing as Show Pack’s season behind the dish for CP Lee’s Cy campaign could have taught him something about calling a game for a LHP who throws in the low-90’s. It stands to reason that Shoppach could find himself getting everyday starts as Catcher, depending upon what the Indians do with Carmona, which would then move Martinez into a full-time role at 1B and decrease any…and I mean ANY chance that El Capitan would join the other players on the DL by having him shed the tools of ignorance for an extended period of time.
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But wait, you say, if Vic’s going to be relegated to 1B, where does that leave our RBI hero, Ryan Garko…Polo?

Since we’re working on batting lines, how does this strike you?
Garko vs. LHP
.344 BA / .432 OBP / .594 SLG / 1.026 OPS in 37 plate appearances
Garko vs. RHP
.217 BA / .321 OBP / .337 SLG / .658 OPS in 110 plate appearances

Now if this discrepancy was unusual for Garko, you give him more AB against RHP given that the lineup is awfully thin these days. But the fact of the matter is that Garko’s career OPS against RHP is .756, while his career OPS against LHP is .906, meaning that this isn’t a new development.

With the lineup pretty decimated, Garko still probably merits a start or two until Hafner is ready to come back, regardless of pitcher; but once Hafner makes his way back from the DL, wouldn’t the perfect arrangement be to give Hafner a day off to rest his shoulder from time to time against LHP, let Garko DH for him when they face a LH pitcher?

Please notice that the intimation was that Garko should DH…not play 1B, not play LF, not play RF…no, DH.
Garko hammers LHP and struggles against RHP…Hafner needs days off from time to time to rest his shoulder.
Two birds, one stone.
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Seeing Josh Barfield make his way back to Cleveland after posting a line of .220 BA / .239 OBP / .266 SLG / .505 OPS at age 26 in AAA, cementing his status as a non-option for a start, I thought I'd take a look down at that Columbus roster…and I think I have some exciting news.

What if I told you that there’s a player in Columbus who has posted a line of .328 BA / .359 OBP / .519 SLG / .878 OPS for the Clippers, all this at the still-relatively young age of 25 who seems to have overcome a slow April (.742 OPS) with a strong May (.904 OPS) and has seen his success continue into June (.923 OPS)?

Now, what if I told you that he plays 3B, which would look to be a position of need with Peralta back at SS and DeRosa moving around the field prior to (hopefully) netting a young arm for the team?

Excited yet?
What if I told you that we’re talking about Andy Marte?
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Keeping the gaze fixed on the capital city, watching Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp return from Columbus with some of the kinks (hopefully) worked out, does anyone else wonder why these guys are able to go to AAA and “figure everything out”?

If that’s the case, what’s being done in AAA that isn’t being done in Cleveland…is it just pitching in lower-pressure situations or is it getting more work?

We saw Stomp Lewis come back from Columbus like a house afire last year and, thus far, the results have been positive for Perez and Sipp since their return. Seeing as how a good portion of our bullpen has now spent some time in Columbus before coming up and finding some semblance of effectiveness, what’s going on here?

Could it have something to do with this little nugget, buried in a Ken Rosenthal piece about the new Tigers’ pitching coach and the difference between him and their old pitching coach, Chuck Hernandez?
The Tigers lead the American League in ERA after finishing 12th in pitching last season. Their improved defense is one significant difference. Knapp, it stands to reason, is another. Chuck Hernandez, the team's previous pitching coach, was stronger than Knapp at developing game plans, one Tigers official says. Knapp is stronger at fixing pitchers' mechanics.

Is this an indication that Hernandez struggles at fixing pitchers’ mechanics?
Isn’t this the same Hernandez that sits out in the Indians’ bullpen and watches these guys before they come out?

Obviously, a bullpen coach can only truly do so much since he is…you know, the bullpen coach; but the performance of young relievers after going to AAA to “right themselves” and the rebound of the Detroit pitching staff without Hernandez definitely raises some eyebrows.
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The AL Central race continues to see some teams limp along, where the Twins are suddenly 2 ½ games out despite being 1 game under .500 and where news that Miggy Cabrera has tweaked a hamstring comes on the heels of a Boston sweep of the Motor City Kitties.

Up next, the White Sox then the Royals…not so coincidentally the two teams ahead of the Tribe in the Central standings.

Insult, Then Injury

As the Indians’ nightmarish season rolls on, when not even the midges could save them from Justin Chamberlain’s best start of the season, the newest development in the tumble down the hill is…injuries! With Grady’s elbow finally sending him to the shelf, with El Capitan taking one off of the knee (though it seems he’s OK, and now with Asdrubal walking off the field like Martin Riggs after getting out of a strait-jacket, the Indians’ season just on as the hits just keep on coming…and they’re not coming off of anyone’s bat.

While the injuries may be the reason du jour of what’s gone wrong with the Indians, it goes a lot deeper than that if you simply take a quick look at the Opening Day roster and realize that the players in bold are the only players who have remained on the 25-man roster for the whole year:
C – Martinez
C – Shoppach
1B – Garko
2B – Cabrera
SS – Peralta
3B – DeRosa
LF – Francisco
RF – Choo
CF – Sizemore
OF – Crowe
IF – Barfield
IF – Graffanino
DH – Hafner

SP – Lee
SP – Carmona
SP – Pavano
SP – Reyes
SP – Lewis

RP – Wood
RP – Lewis
RP – Perez
RP – Betancourt
RP – Smith
RP - Kobayashi
RP – Jackson

By a quick count, 13 of the 25 players that the Indians broke Spring Training with have remained on the team, without interruption, for the first 53 games, just shy of the 1/3 mark of the season.

The reason that this is important to look at is because while injuries have certainly played an issue in the decimation of the Opening Day roster, ineffectiveness has played a role that is just as significant. Since you could argue that Carmona and Lewis would have found themselves in Columbus if Rome wasn’t burning around them and that Asdrubal could be headed to the Tribe DL, the number of players that remained healthy AND effective throughout the season from this list is staggeringly low.
CP Lee, Victor, Cabrera (who may have to be scratched from this list tomorrow), The BLC…am I missing anyone?
Pavano? I guess if we’re reaching…but that’s it.

We knew at the outset of the season that some cavalry would be arriving from AAA to fill holes that exposed themselves throughout the course of the season, but watching the roster turnover gives off a sense that leaks are springing up everywhere in the dyke and the fingers that the Indians are sticking in either don’t fit or they’re simply out of fingers to prevent the coming deluge that looks to be all but a certainty at this point.

Of course the news that Grady could be out for two months – which would take us to August – hurts quite a bit in terms of the Indians losing their best player. But, not unlike last year when Victor and Hafner hit the DL after nursing injuries (and where is the learned lesson in all this?), what the Indians were getting from Sizemore prior to the DL stint wasn’t having too much of an effect on a very productive offense, sitting 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 1st in the AL in OBP…all with Sizemore sporting an OPS of .726 in 235 plate appearances.

Yes, Sizemore hurts as he is the Indians’ best player (when healthy), but Betancourt’s injury could be the kill shot to the team’s 2009 hopes (if any still remained) because the majority of the “effective” relievers in the bullpen (Herges, Aquino, Vizcaino) have the capability to stop pitching above their heads and regress back to the veteran bullpen fodder that we all thought they were when they were signed in the off-season to basically fill out the Columbus relief corps.

Essentially, what we’ll see with Sizemore and Betancourt hitting the DL is a further watering down of what was already a flawed team. The Indians, going into the season, hoped that their Opening Day roster could remain moderately productive (and obviously healthy) long enough for some of the reinforcements to arrive; but that just didn’t happen.

There were too many question marks going into the season relating to health and related performance, from Hafner’s shoulder to Martinez’s power and from the hope against hope that Pavano, Reyes, and SLewis could all stay healthy and contribute some meaningful innings, that the Indians needed EVERYTHING to go right for the season to not be what it is today, which certainly looks like a lost cause.

Before anyone throws the white flag up as we’ve just hit June, though, let’s be very honest about this – if the Indians tread water against the Central and don’t make up significant ground in the next three series before Interleague play starts, the writing is on the wall that the team is too flawed and playing too far below optimal capacity to compete. If the Indians flounder, or even just play .500 baseball against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals (the three teams that separate them from 2nd place) before next Friday, it’s very much time to acknowledge that the AL Central (weak as it may be) simply isn’t attainable for this group of players.

If the Indians can start to make up ground and leapfrog some of these teams ahead of them at a time when the other teams’ schedule gets tougher (the Tigers’ next two series are against the Red Sox and Angels) or the other teams’ are losing as a direct result of the Indians winning, the thought would be to attempt to hang on for the expected returns of Jake Westbrook, Aaron Laffey, and maybe Travis Hafner to fortify the roster for what could be a long, winding road to .500 with the hopes that the Tigers fall on hard times.

However, even if the team sticks around or makes things interesting, the shortfalls or questions as to whether some of the principals in the rotation will return at 100% and the lack of viable internal options still point to a trade for this team to augment the rotation and/or bullpen, particularly if Carmona’s struggles continue or if Betancourt’s injury looks to be serious enough that a lengthy DL stint looks likely.

The obvious move is to take the player with the most worth to other teams on the roster who essentially became a redundancy on the roster and an unnecessary luxury when Jhonny Peralta made the move to 3B and move Mark DeRosa for some pitching that can help right off the bat, be it in the rotation or the bullpen. It could be argued that Cabrera’s injury potentially affects this thinking, as Peralta would likely move back to SS, meaning that DeRosa’s old 3B spot would likely be his again, but Jamey Carroll may be able to fill the 3B void for a short time (or even Valbuena) and DeRosa’s usefulness diminishes for the Indians with every start for him in LF and 1B as the Indians organization is awash with guys able to play LF or are playing out of position at 1B.

Before taking a brief hiatus, Castrovince implied that something could be afoot with the Cardinals, looking for a 3B to replace Troy Glaus whose versatility would become an asset upon Glaus’ return. The Cardinals, however, wouldn’t be the only suitor for DeRosa, Teams like the Cubs, the Braves, and the Mets would all figure to have an interest in upgrading their infield and versatility with a veteran like DeRosa.

According to AC, the Cards would offer Mitch Boggs, Chris Perez, or J.P. Walters for DeRosa and if Perez is on the table, this deal should have been done last week. The other teams that may have an interest may have young arms that would intrigue (Cubs – Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart; Braves – Kris Medlen; Mets – Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese), but potentially moving DeRosa goes back to the idea that the Indians need arms as soon as possible to contribute at the MLB level, be it in the rotation or the bullpen. If DeRosa is the piece most likely to net such a piece (and trading him now gets a better return for 4 months of him instead of waiting for July 31st, which would translate into 2 months of him), then the Indians shouldn’t wait to make this move. Plus, seeing how the (allegedly) interested teams have a rooted interest in keeping DeRosa potentially out of the hands of a divisional rival, maybe some sort of bidding war for DeRosa could drive up the price to…say…keep him out of returning to the North Side.

The Indians’ Front Office has some success stories pertaining to flipping veterans for position players (Benuardo for Choo and Cabrera, Blake for Santana), but it’s time to add some arms to this mix, whether the idea be to augment the team for a run at .500 and to get back into the AL Central mix (throwing caution and logic to the wind) or simply to finally load up on some hard-throwing impact starters and relievers that don’t seem to be found internally at the upper levels.

Regardless of whether the Indians make a move with DeRosa or anyone else, the injuries suffered by the Indians in the past week or two certainly has put a damper on any hope that the Indians would be able to hold it together until some of their stalwarts could remain healthy. By no means, however, should these injuries be used as an excuse as the Indians’ season had plenty of unfortunate incidents that took place before these injuries started piling up and made 2009 look more and more like a lost season.