Tomahawks Breaking Bad

Fresh off of a 4-4 road trip and about to welcome the Royals, the not-as-good-as-their-record Reds, and the somehow-behind-the-Indians-in-the-standings White Sox to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, the Indians say goodbye to two of their best players (one of their best players who was actually playing well this year and the one who has an OPS .008 higher than AJ Pierzynski), suddenly destined for stints on the DL.

Say it with me here…“ah, 2010 Indians baseball”, and while attempting to choke down the bile that has accompanied those 3 words, let’s release some mid-week Tomahawks:
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Obviously, the news of the week revolves around the former Tribe shortstop exacting some measure of revenge on the current Tribe shortstop for taking “his” position (yes, I’m kidding…I think) and Grady heading off to the 15-day DL with a deep bone bruise. So, let’s put on the stethoscopes and the scrubs and immerse ourselves in some medical intrigue and the accompanying fallout.

While a nasty rumor has floated around that characterizes Asdrubal’s injury as potentially season-ending (and I suppose anything is possible), I’ll rely on Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus to lay out a timeframe while he also addresses the other Tribe player who could have been hurting more than we know:
Cabrera should be out until about the All-Star break, but shouldn’t have any long-term consequences. As a lot of young kids can tell you, arm bones heal pretty cleanly. I am curious to watch the timing on this with a lot of the interesting research on bone stimulation coming out of the Cleveland Clinic. The Indians are all about the bones right now, as Sizemore had an MRI to see what his problem is. His knee was thought to be just bruised, but he has had severe pain and some inflammation. He’d had some minor issues with this same knee back in April, so there may be some connection or we could be seeing some underlying pattern that suggests a problem.

Perhaps I missed it, but I don’t remember ever hearing that Sizemore had “minor issues with this same knee back in April” and this idea that an “underlying pattern” could “suggest a problem” just gave me the shivers, as does the intimation that surgery is possible for Sizemore, which is no small procedure given that it would take place in the knee.

Regardless of the results of the MRI for Sizemore, perhaps he can benefit from the 15-day DL stint to rest his body and his mind and if this is a lingering issue (Acta was on the pre-game radio broadcast saying that Sizemore injured it in Los Angeles in the final days of Spring Training), then perhaps an explanation for his slow start (to be charitable) finds an answer. As both Cabrera and Sizemore hit the DL, it would certainly seem that we have an answer to that question from earlier in the week as to “how are the Indians going to work the young guys in” as opportunities and plate appearances seem to be there for the taking all around the diamond.

The obvious beneficiaries of Cabrera’s injury are Jason Donald, whose timeframe for promotion was accelerated as he now takes over at his natural position of SS for about 2 months, and Louie V, who lives to fight another day in the Indians’ lineup despite not really doing much on the field for the parent club this season to merit his stay in Cleveland. Of course, the pessimist would say that Cabrera’s injury screws up the management of Valbuena’s service time issue which was about to be rectified when he was sent down in favor of Donald, but if Valbuena continues to perform as he has (even with a long leash considered), he’s going to find himself in Columbus for that service clock maintenance/wake-up call soon enough.

Certainly, nobody is suggesting that Donald (who is actually 14 months OLDER than Cabrera and has played 98 games above AA) is going to come in and save a listless offense or even replace Cabrera’s presence in the lineup, even if Cabrera was struggling in terms of comparing them to his 2009 season. Rather, Jason Donald has now been handed the opportunity to play for 2 months, likely without respite, for the parent club and is probably going to be paired (intermittently) with Luis Valbuena in the middle of the diamond. During the course of Cabrera’s rehab then, the Indians will have the opportunity to evaluate both Donald and Louie the Fifth in a convoluted “battle” to see which of the players remains in the lineup as the 2B when Cabrera returns.

Is there a chance that Donald going to go all Chase Utley on the Indians here, as a late-blooming middle infielder who came up through the Phillies organization?

I suppose in a happy, dream-filled world, I could make the comparison as Utley’s career totals in MiLB (.282 BA / .357 OBP / .465 SLG / .822 OPS IN 1,877 PA) compare with those that Donald has accumulated (.284 BA / .371 OBP / .434 SLG / .806 OPS in 1,694 PA) to date in the Minors. Utley also made his first extended appearance in MLB as a 25-year-old in a year in which he had 144 AAA plate appearances, whereas Donald is a 25-year-old hitting MLB for the first time after logging 165 AAA plate appearances.

Is this pie-in-the-sky thinking and simply thinking of a best-case scenario while pointing out what could be largely coincidental similarities?

No question, as Utley has outperformed his MiLB line for each of the last 6 years in Philly (posting an OPS over .900 every year), but Donald’s going to get the opportunity in 2010 to see if he can become a legitimate option at 2B going forward for this team. That doesn’t presuppose that he’ll suddenly become Chase Utley (however the transition to the one we see know in Philly happened from a prospect who cracked the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list once…at #89), only that if he puts up average offensive numbers from the middle-of-the-infield while playing above-average defense for the next two months, you can likely pencil him in as the Indians’ starting 2B for the next 4 to 5 years at a position that has largely been a long-term problem (other than Asdrubal playing out of position there) since the trade of Roberto Alomar.

As for Grady’s injury, the Indians have already made the corresponding move to bring Shelly Duncan up from AAA. While the move is confusing in that Duncan does not exactly fit into the future of the team, my guess is that the promotion of Crowe for Marte and Duncan for Sizemore essentially balance each other out as Crowe will take the place of Grady in the lineup and Duncan will take the place of unused RH bat off of the bench until Marte is ready to return from the DL.

Not that anybody asked, but if it were up to me, I'd promote Brantley to play CF (and I do think that he gets the call if Sizemore undergoes surgery as they try to avoid the yo-yo game with Brantley from Columbus and Cleveland) and play the mildly-resurgent Matt MaTola (.838 OPS in his last 7 games) in LF. The benefits would be two-fold, to get both Brantley and MaTola some needed MLB AB, but more importantly so we’re not subjected to Crowe’s defensive deficiencies in CF (and he cost the Indians the game on Monday by misplaying both Crawford’s triple AND breaking back on Blalock’s single before diving for it unsuccessfully), much less hoping that Crowe is able to go on some Ben Francisco-esque hot start to build up the hopes of Indians’ fans that Crowe is anything more than a “poor man’s Ben Francisco” which, if you think about it means that he’s a “poor man’s 4th OF”.

Lest anyone forget, Crowe is a 26-year-old OF (15 months older than Grady) whose cumulative OPS by level above A ball are .636 (OPS in A-ball), .724 (OPS in AA), and .761 (OPS in AAA); so while he may look the part and provide some athleticism and speed for the team, athleticism and speed without ability or instincts will take a player only so far. Nevertheless, Crowe will get the opportunity to show that everything that he has done in the Indians’ organization is an aberration and that he belongs on the 40-man roster as much more than a fill-in.

Even before these injuries, it appeared that the plate appearances are going to be there for these young guys to assert themselves into the mix for 2010 and beyond. Now, with these injuries presenting more opportunities (and with Carlos Santana just hammering away at that MLB door), the rest of the season looks to be shaping up to be an audition of sorts for a lot of young players.

How do they balance all of those youngsters with attempting to win, or at least generating some interest at the box office (although that ship may have already sailed) at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario?
I suppose we’re about to find out…
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In terms of this development and attempting to win, if you remember the hypothetical question from last Sunday on playing time and developing young players, Joe Posnanski has a similar piece on SI.com in which he asserts that the built-in “advantage” that small-market teams have over teams (he uses the Royals as the example) with higher revenues is time to allow players develop:
Well, the big thing is to know that while, sure, you want to win, the goal must be bigger than that. You are building a team to win down the road. Everything -- and I mean EVERYTHING -- must be pointed in that direction. Every break you take, every move you make, every smile you fake, every bond you break should have 2011 and 2012 and 2013 in consideration. And with time, you can do things. If you have some young and reasonably talented players, you can give them opportunities to learn and grow at the Major League level. If you have prospects you are not quite sure about you can FIND OUT what they have inside.
--snip--
But it seems to me that if they are going to be about developing young players, they actually have to DEVELOP YOUNG PLAYERS. No, nobody wants to go through another 90-100 loss season. But the Royals are going to lose those games anyway. The question is: What will they get out of all those losses? What will they get out of this season?

This is certainly the intent of the thought process from last Sunday (and the comments by Acta that they did have a laid out plan in terms of working these young players in is comforting), and if you want to see the manner in which this “treatise” applies to the Indians (or at least a realistic application of it in the here and now for the Tribe), Steve Buffum tackles the whole Indians’ roster and who should and should not be seeing the field at the present time. Going through Buffum’s assessment, I can’t say that I could make a compelling argument against any of his assertions in terms of where playing time should be allotted.

That being said (and back to the Posnanski “treatise”, as Buffum calls it), I think that the fundamental truth that Posnanski ignores is the idea that this “time” and development is certainly well and good, but that the seeds of that development don’t always bear the fruit all at the same time to make winning feasible.

That is, the endgame of successful development needs to happen in such a perfect timeframe for these small-market teams that it also becomes nearly impossible. As the Indians have proven (in the not-too-distant-past), not only does this development of talent need to occur in the small markets over “time”, but it has to occur up and down the lineup and throughout the pitching staff simultaneously to close the talent gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots” in MLB in any given year, much less consistently.

If you think that the situation that occurred in Cleveland from 2007 to 2009 was the aberration or the result of faulty leadership (and truthfully, some of it was), take a look at what Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote about the situation unfolding in Milwaukee:
With 124 games to play, assuming that they’ll need to win 92 games to give themselves a good chance of winning the NL Central or the Wild Card, they would have to play .621 baseball the rest of the way to make that happen.
--snip--
Realistically, the playoff chances for the Brewers appear slim for 2010, and with that reality staring them in the face, it’s probably time for them to put Prince Fielder on the trading block.
--snip--
It’s not the outcome that Milwaukee had in mind when they put this roster together, and they do have enough talent to right the ship and get back to a winning record, but they are far enough back in the NL Central where its getting to be time to change directions. Six weeks of bad baseball can sink a season, and in the case of the Brewers, it probably has.

Where have I seen that situation unfold before, where “six weeks of bad baseball can sink a season” causing a team with limited resources and with their best players staring Free Agency in the face to confront very harsh realities and perhaps attempt to fight another day?
That’s right…I remember now.

And it’s not just the situation in Cleveland and Milwaukee, which DID develop and acquire young talent that DID mature and succeed together. As great of a story as Tampa is these days, the Yankees likely have already made Carl Crawford pinstriped jerseys to sell in the team shops in the Bronx and Carlos Pena will likely find himself elsewhere next year as well. As stocked as the Rays’ farm system is purported to be (and 10 years of Top 5 picks SHOULD do that) and as great as their young pitching looks, all that needs to happen is a couple of bad breaks and the Rays are back to this state of limbo that most small-market teams encounter as they hope that Desmond Jennings can succeed in short order and hope that their starting pitching holds up and isn’t done in by a bullpen or any other extenuating circumstances or before David Price (only signed through 2012) and Matt Garza (signed through 2013) find themselves inking contracts too large for the Rays to legitimately consider or before they’re considered trade bait 1 ½ years before Free Agency as Fielder may be.

Those “extenuating circumstances” deep-sixed the Indians’ intentions of contending in 2008 and 2009 and are threatening the talented squad in small-market Milwaukee. Whether Tampa’s next on the list of teams to follow the slow ascent and quick descent remains to be seen, but the “blueprint” is there, as are the system-imposed limitations that lead to following that “blueprint”.
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Attempting to lighten the mood, since we’re nearing that “magical” 40-game mark at which teams often say that they can start to get a sense of the team that they have, how about a quick look at what was thought to the be the weakness of the team going into the season – the starting pitching.

April Numbers for Starters
Carmona – 4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 15 K, 14 BB in 33 1/3 IP
Westbrook – 5.53 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 18 K, 13 BB in 27 2/3 IP
Talbot – 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7 K, 11 BB in 26 1/3 IP
Huff – 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11 K, 10 BB in 26 1/3 IP
Masterson – 5.68 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 24 K, 11 BB in 19 IP

May Numbers for Starters to date
Carmona – 2.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11 K, 7 BB in 18 IP
Westbrook – 2.41 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 13 K, 8 BB in 18 2/3 IP
Talbot – 4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 12 K, 10 BB in 21 IP
Huff – 7.47 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 5 K, 6 BB in 15 2/3 IP
Masterson – 5.63 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 22 K, 13 BB in 24 IP

What does all of that mean?
If I would have said at the beginning of the season that the Indians would have three legitimately even-average starting pitchers on a semi-consistent basis at the 40-game mark, how surprised would you have been?

If I would have said that two of those three legitimately even-average starters would be Carmona and Talbot, how long would it have taken for me to peel you off of the floor?
As frustrating as it is to go watch Masterson and Huff completely come off the rails as starters, it can’t overwhelm the pleasure in seeing Carmona hold opposing hitters to a .630 OPS or when he strikes out 7 in 6 2/3 on Monday night (in a game he should have won) against the Rays. Nor can it cast a gray cloud over the unexpected sunshine inexplicably coming from “The Fury” as he continues to pitch well despite all the numbers (and the eye test) that say that he simply shouldn’t be doing as well as he is. Westbrook’s days are numbered in Cleveland, but the way that he’s pitching (and doesn’t it feel strange to root for some of these guys so their trade value is peaking in July) should net the Indians more than what they could have expected in return for him when the season started.

While the inclination and the knee-jerk reaction would be to send Huff off to AAA and Masterson off to the bullpen, I hate to be the one to break this to you but the Indians aren’t going to contend in 2010 for the Central or the Wild Card and giving these guys a long leash (even if it means that they hang themselves with it) is the prudent path to follow.
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They tell me that patience is a virtue and, as Cleveland fans, ours has certainly been tested. However, this Indians’ season is built on development and answering questions about players in this organization going forward. That development and those answers aren’t going to come without ugliness and dark days, so until the light at the end of the tunnel becomes visible (and it isn’t yet), we’re left with a young team that’s about to get younger and less experienced due to injury/injuries.

How the young players adjust to those opportunities in 2010 are going to go a long way in determining where the Indians find themselves in this new age of development, whether the players struggle (as Marson, Valbuena, MaTola, Huff, and Masterson have) or whether they thrive (as Talbot, Sipp, and…well) will give the Indians a better idea as to when contention (and by that I mean legitimate contention) is plausible.

A Lazy Sunday Balancing Act

With the DiaBride off visiting her sister and our new niece in Wisconsin for the weekend, it’s been a boys’ weekend here on the North Coast, full of take-out pizza, tee-ball, grilled cheeses from Melt, and a birthday party that actually included pony rides…all while trying to forget the ugliness of the end of the Cavaliers’ season. The attention will be diverted today by watching some friends finish the 10K downtown, so since we’re off to cheer them on at the finish line, let’s get off on a Lazy One…

While you wouldn’t know it from any sports coverage (national or local) there is a pro sports team from Cleveland playing these days and if you’ve been watching, you’re aware how disjointed and cobbled together the Indians have looked over the past few weeks as the youngsters have continued to struggle to adjust to MLB and (much more importantly) the likes of Sizemore and Hafner have remained decidedly ineffective. Due to the ineptitude of the offense all season, the makeup of the lineup has changed decidedly in the past couple of weeks as the veterans signed to deals (both minor league and Major League) in the off-season are finding themselves on the field with startling frequency.

The inclusion of players like Kearns, Branyan, and Grudzielanek (mainly) was a topic recently broached by Manny Acta, who addressed the issue of playing time, development, and trying to win games:
“It’s a tough balancing act because you owe it to the rest of the team and you owe it to the fans and the franchise to try and win on an everyday basis, but you can’t lose track of the big picture. You want to try and find the other pieces that are going to go along with Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo for the long ride here. You still have to try and develop those guys.”
--snip--
“As we’ve said over and over these kids are going to get a legit opportunity to see if they’re going to be part of the supporting cast. If the other [veterans] click the way they’ve been clicking, it makes life easier for us. I believe on any given day, any player can help you win a ballgame. You come to the ballpark every day hoping it’s going to be Marson or LaPorta or Valbuena and not that it’s always going to be Choo, Sizemore, Hafner, Branyan and Cabrera and Kearns.”
--snip--
“It’s tough because you want to win and I believe we can win,” Acta said. “But you don’t want to lose the focus of building a [winning] team that is going to be here for years to come. There is a very fine line between winning two or three more games at the end of the year by playing a guy who is probably not going to be here next year [or] playing a guy who is going to be part of the future.”

Those comments are particularly interesting in the context of Wednesday’s game against the Royals (a win, by the way), in which the number of Indians’ players in the lineup for both teams that were younger than 27 was…wait for it…one. Asdrubal Cabrera (24 years old), was the only Indian in the starting lineup for a team that finished 65-97 at the bottom of the Central last year. Sure Sizemore and Choo are only 27, but 5 of the 9 players in the lineup were 30 or older…this in a rebuilding/reloading/whatever year.

While the game was a bit of a yawner (unsurprisingly and not helped by two rain delays), it brought under the hot glare of attention this advanced state of limbo that has afflicted a number of teams in MLB, unsure whether to go full bore into an attempt at rebuilding (or whatever it’s being called) mode, or whether to lean on some veteran presence in the lineup (in Wednesday’s case, steaming heaps of “veteran presence”) in an attempt to win games in the here and now, with less of an eye towards the future.

That brings up a fundamental question as a team like the Indians unquestionably needs to break in their young players with an eye past 2010, but does that “breaking-in” process do more damage as the youngsters struggle and the team slips further into ignominy, a slide that can be tempered (somewhat) by inserting the likes of Kearns, Branyan, and Redmond into the mix to buy goodwill, some local attention, and perhaps even wins?

In the Indians’ case, the early season experiments of giving jobs out of Spring Training to Luis Valbuena, Matt MaTola, Lou Marson, and Mike Brantley have resulted in OPS+ of 64 (Valbuena), 45 (LaPorta), 44 (Marson), and 19 (Brantley) in 292 cumulative plate appearances. That strategy certainly seems to have recently given way to increased playing time for Austin Kearns (162 OPS+), Rusty Branyan (127 OPS+), and Mark Grudzielanek (81 OPS+) as the Indians attempt to actually start winning some games…perhaps at the cost of development and flattening out the learning curve for players that do realistically figure into their plans past this year.

It becomes a greater question however for a team like the Indians that is unlikely to be players in the Free Agent market (the one that includes elite players and not all players) year after year and that have very little chance of retaining their own players, assuming they do excel, once those established players reach FA, compete in the here and now while keeping an eye to the future.

If the Front Office decides to flip some “Go Young” switch that exists in the Teams’ Offices, the growing pains will certainly begin and the possibility exists that players like LaPorta and Brantley never match the production of Kearns and Branyan. In the present however, players like Kearns and Branyan are performing and helping their teams win games…infrequently as it may be.

Whether the development of young players as they adjust to MLB and attempt to get their sea legs under them is compromised in the process of infrequently winning these games becomes the great debate as to how to build a team capable of contending in the uneven competitive structure of MLB. Certainly, drafting and development (or lack thereof in the case of the Indians’ in recent history, whose talent has largely been acquired via trade) plays a role in teams facing this quandary, but in the current financial climate in MLB, how do small-market teams play this balancing act between youth being the only thing on the menu, going through those requisite growing pains and attempting to win games to keep fans interested, if the better chance of winning comes with players that don’t figure into their future?

Perhaps this issue comes about by the organization’s own doing, but the chasm between the “haves” and the “have-nots” is growing in MLB and teams that are fighting upstream to begin with in the revenue race often find themselves in this death spiral that was on display on Wednesday night in Kansas City. How the Indians can pull themselves out of that vortex (and they did as recently as 2004) will be the interesting theme to watch this season and there’s going to be no shortage of opinions of how to improve the team both for the short-term and the long-term.

To that end (and off of the soapbox for a moment), some compelling lineup suggestions were recently asserted by Steve Buffum (of TCF) when sitting in Rob Neyer’s chair at ESPN that could provide some ointment for the rash that is the Indians’ offense.

Reading through Acta’s comments from an interview with Baseball Prospectus’ David Laurila and looking at that idea that development and contention are mutually exclusive ideas, it would seem that the Indians had a plan coming in regarding how AB were going to be distributed, so whether any of this out-of-the-box thinking (as logical as it may be) suggested by Buffum will take hold:
MA: Here, it’s fantastic. We’re pretty much on the same page. We talk almost on a daily basis, but it’s not exactly about what I’m doing managing. Before the season starts, we put a plan together and we know who we’re going to try to give a certain amount of at-bats to, and who we want to be out there, or not out there, and also what we have coming from the minor leagues. The plan is pretty much in order, so unless I feel like I need to make a drastic adjustment or something, I don’t need to communicate it to our baseball people.

DL: If you make a move—for whatever reason—that is counter to what data shows might have been a better option, do you get a call from Mark Shapiro or assistant GM Chris Antonetti after the game, asking why?

MA: No, not at all. These guys, they let me work; they’re not that way. They’re not hands-on when it comes to that kind of stuff and that’s something that I make sure of wherever I go. I’m not going to have to put up with stuff like anyone making up a lineup for me, anybody calling me about a player, or anything like that. I think here, they did all their research, and they’re very thorough on what they do with the interviews and stuff to have a feel of how I’m going to do things.

Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus also had Mark Shapiro sit down for a Q & A that largely focused on how the Indians went about their managerial search, but he did have some interesting comments in the context of hiring Manny Acta because he understood the place that the Indians found themselves and how Acta was familiar with the situation, in Cleveland, both in terms of personnel and market:
He was educated to our situation and he saw positives here, whereas a lot of people around us, in our market, see the negatives here. Manny saw the positive attributes here, and I don‘t think you can overlook that positive energy. This game has so much inherent negative built in, and this market has a lot of negative energy in it right now, so that positive energy was important.

While the “inherent negative built in” to the game isn’t something that could be misunderstood by anyone who’s been paying attention (here, at least) all off-season, the comment about the “negative energy” in “this market” can be taken a number of ways. Whether it be the perception among fans that the Indians are a flawed organization, from top-to-bottom with no discernible sign of changing course, or whether it speaks to the manner in which the team has been raked over the coals by the majority of the local media for dismantling the team over the past two years, blissfully ignoring the financial realities that caused that dismantling…along with the horrific starts, of course.

Of course, the other possibility in terms of the “negative energy” in “this market” came to light in a recent web chat when Pete Gammons told WEEI in a recent interview (as he was discussing the disinterest in Tampa, despite a winning team) that the financial situation for the Indians is dire because of the struggles of the city:
And Cleveland is a serious concern now, too, because they have no Fortune 500 companies left and 30 percent of the households in greater Cleveland have left in the last two years. The economy there is absolutely dead. What might save the Indians is if LeBron [James] leaves, because we all know it is a football town, but if you have the Browns and LeBron there isn’t enough money to support three teams. A lot of people doubt that.

While Gammons is embellishing a little bit to prove his point, as Greater Cleveland has 7 Fortune 500 companies and Akron has two more, anyone whose spent a minute of time in downtown Cleveland in the past few years knows that these concerns are not entirely unfounded. The Indians are last in attendance in MLB (and not by a small margin) and interest in the team is at the lowest levels in recent memory.

Where this all goes (in terms of both the city and the organization) is fodder for a whole year’s worth of conjecture and analysis, but the 2010 season could be more than just the “balancing act” that Acta references as he discusses who plays and how often. While the future of one team in Cleveland is largely reliant on the decision of a 25-year-old (whose potential final game in a Cavaliers’ uniform was brilliantly summarized by native South Euclidean here), the future of the team that occupies the stadium across Gateway Plaza may be done in by the growing chasm in team revenue, one that may only grow wider as the city that the Indians call home slips further into the abyss.

Tomahawks on the Move

As the North Coast reels from the latest failure to bring a championship to Cleveland (with a vicious thunderstorm rolling in, as if on cue, after the game ended), perhaps I was the only one who was struck by the similarities to the last unsuccessful attempt to win the city’s first title since 1964.

A Cleveland team, with championship aspirations, is done in by a more experienced team from Boston, their hopes dashed by a series of questionable coaching strategies and by their best player simply failing to show up when the team needed him most. That best player, in both instances, stared Free Agency in the face after the series (though Sabathia was under contract for 2008) and the sense that the opportunity lost would represent the last opportunity in some time prevailed.

For the sake of the Cavaliers (and all of Cleveland), let’s hope that the team does not suffer the same cataclysmic decline that has occurred since the 2007 ALCS for the team, as pieces and parts are moved quickly, that they call their Gateway brethren. While we hold out that hope heading into the summer, let’s release some Tomahawks about that “other” team that calls Gateway home because…well, because that’s what we do here…
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Since the Royals are apparently the cure for what ails the Indians, perhaps the schedule-makers could do the Erie Warriors next year and front-load some series with Kansas City so the Tribe can be seen as getting off on the same way that Detroit did this year, playing the Royals in 6 of their first 9 games. If you’re wondering, the Tigers started the season 6-3 and are 13-12 since, so opponents do have something to do with how the AL Central standing look to date.

That’s not to say that the Indians are getting CRUSHED by a tough early season schedule. Rather, that these things balance themselves out over the course of the months of the baseball season and the Indians chance to peek at respectability may be coming.

The Tribe is playing 8 of their next 13 at home and while their home record is not exactly reminiscent of UCLA Basketball in the 1970s, their opponents in those 13 games could be telling as to how the remainder of the first half of the season progresses.

After starting out in Baltimore to play the worst team in the AL (11-24), they make their way for a quick 2-game series in Tampa everyone’s new example of a small market team “doing things the right way”, the Rays. After those games, the team heads back to the North Coast to face these very same Royals for 2 games, followed by three-game homestands against the and the “could-be-a-mirage” 19-15 Reds (who have a negative run differential and have swept BOTH the Pirates and Astros in the early going) and the 4th place White Sox, who have actually allowed more runs per game than the Indians.

This is not to assert that the Indians are suddenly going to find themselves neck and neck with the Twins for the Central, but a quick look around .500 wouldn’t hurt in the next 13 games before they head out to the Bronx for the final series of the month.

Since the team is 13-19 now, if the team ends Memorial Day around 23-26 (that would be 10-7 from now until the end of May…which may be a tall order even considering who they’re playing) or thereabouts, then May will have been a smashing success (relatively speaking) as the moves that figure to take place that first week in June figure to galvanize (again, relatively speaking) the fan base.
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Speaking of moves that will take place in that first week of June (and I mainly refer to the Santana promotion), my guess would be that a couple of moves are coming before Memorial Day. The first would figure to be the promotion of Saul Rivera, who has an out clause in his contract if he isn’t on the Tribe roster by Saturday and has a 0.56 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 16 IP in Columbus to date. Yes, he’s struck out only 9 and walked 7 in those 16 IP (which shows that he may be the beneficiary of some luck as a Clipper), but he did post a 3.72 ERA and an ERA+ of 115 in 215 games and 237 1/3 IP as a member of the Nationals’ bullpen from 2006 to 2008.

Is that an exciting addition, given that he’s now a 32-year-old RH reliever who gave up more than a hit per inning pitched last year in the NL?

Certainly not, but the Indians are still struggling to find that right mix of relievers (past Sipp and Laffey) that can rely on to contribute meaningful innings out of the bullpen with some consistency (even if it just means pitching multiple innings while the team is losing) and if 6 weeks is devoted to finding out if Saul Rivera has anything left in the tank to get out MLB hitters.

A case could certainly be made that Frank Herrmann should get a look before Rivera (same ERA, same WHIP, more K, fewer BB), but the terms of Rivera’s contract give him an out if he’s not an Indian by Saturday and Herrmann isn’t even on the 40-man roster, meaning that his option clock hasn’t even started.

Additionally, there would certainly seem to be an open spot for Rivera to test his mettle against MLB hitters as the clock struck midnight long ago on Rafael Perez and the pumpkin act that he’s been taking out to the mound no longer needs to be seen in Cleveland. The time to DFA Perez has come and gone and come again and there may be some thought that a team will claim Perez and rehabilitate him as a viable reliever, but that thought process was once applied to Fernando Cabrera (who was historically a highly-thought of arm, unlike Perez who appeared out of nowhere in 2006 to contribute) and countless other bullpen arms who eventually end up bouncing around the Minors after experiencing success (as wildly surprising and enjoyable as it was in 2007) in MLB, a success that eludes them into eternity.
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The other move that is probably being considered (other than the Donald to SS, Louie V. to Columbus…which will be done soon and for more reasons than just performance as Valbuena’s service time could be managed by spending some time in AAA) would have to be to take a look at Dave Huff making his way back to Columbus as his 2010 season has come off of the rails.

Since his complete game, Huff has posted a 7.77 ERA a 2.00 WHIP and has compiled 10 BB and 8 K in his last 22 IP over 4 starts. That…that’s not the results you want to see out of 25-year-old former 1st Round Pick.

That all being said, while I think that consideration will be paid to sending Huff down to AAA in an attempt to build his confidence back up, I don’t see the corresponding move that makes a lot of sense. Maybe the Tribe moves Aaron Laffey into the rotation and puts Rivera in the bullpen (saving Perez once again), but to me, Aaron Laffey has adjusted nicely to his role in the bullpen (as undefined as his actual “role” might be) and given that he’s one of the more dependable relievers out there, I’m inclined to let him continue that odyssey in the bullpen. Maybe the Indians start stretching Laffey out to slide back into the rotation, but at this point in the season, I would leave Laffey in the bullpen until Huff has been given a chance to attempt to apply some of the “fire-lighting” points from Acta to his next few outings.

Past the idea that Laffey is most valuable to this team in the bullpen (currently, not necessarily all season), the starters in Columbus are not compelling the Indians to make a decision by forcing their way into the rotational conversation. With Carrasco struggling with inconsistency and Rondon headed to the DL with a strained forearm, the most obvious replacement for Huff in the rotation would be Yohan Pino, for whom a 40-man move would have to be made to add to the mix. That’s not to say that some 40-man maneuvering is a bad thing, but I’m not ready for a Huff-for-Pino exchange…yet.

That’s not to say that Huff should be trotted out there in perpetuity regardless of results and while he could perhaps benefit from the boost to his confidence that facing AAA hitters would give him, I would continue to keep him on that long leash as a starter to see how he performs with regular turns in the rotation for a longer timeframe than 6 starts before deeming him unworthy of a rotation spot when no obvious answer exists.

It’s been said before, but it bears repeating – in 2010, the focus is on development and casting an eye to the future. Perhaps Huff doesn’t ultimately project as a legitimate MLB starter (much the same way that Masterson looks like the will end up in the bullpen), but if there was ever a year to dole out the innings to form a more complete answer based on a larger amount of data, this is the year.

That doesn’t necessarily bode well for the attempted peek at respectability by the end of May mentioned above, but finding out where guys like Huff or Masterson fit in this organization going forward is more important than reaching .500 by Memorial Day.

Doing both (finding out where some of these guys fit AND reaching .500 by Memorial Day) would be nice, but if you think that’s possible…you haven’t been watching the games.
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Beneath Cleveland, I like the way that the Indians are being aggressive with some of their arms to challenge them at higher levels or moving them into roles into which they ultimately project. In case you missed it, Zach Putnam moved from the rotation to the bullpen in Akron, where he could be fast-tracked to help the parent club in short order. Additionally, Joe Gardner has been promoted from Lake County to Kinston on the strength of striking out 38 hitters in 25 IP. Gardner actually notched as many strikeouts as walks and hits allowed in Lake County.

Putnam was a 5th Round Pick in 2008 and Gardner was a 3rd Round Pick just last year, so as the Indians start to press the fast-forward button on some of their more talented arms, whether it be transitioning to the bullpen or jumping levels early in the season, it would certainly seem that the organizational philosophy of seeing how many guys can be kept as starters is starting to evolve as is the previously followed blueprint that pitchers should spend the majority of a season at one level.

The thing to watch going forward would be to see how quickly the Tribe moves some of the more highly-touted arms like Nick Hagadone and Alex White, both of whom are finding success in Kinston and are both a little too old for the league. Perhaps the Putnam and Gardner moves are a sign that the Indians are being more aggressive in the promotion and development of their arms, attempting to stock the upper levels with the most talented arms as quickly as possible, whether those arms project as starters or relievers.
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With the Indians these days, it’s all about projection and development, but in the here-and-now, we have a summer that promises to be full of “will he stay or will he go” on the North Coast and the continued growing pains of a young team in a city that could be as far away from a legitimate championship contender in the last 20 years.

Austin City Limits

Although the calendar tells me that it is only May, I ran across the first article attempting to identify which players are going to be possibly available prior to the July 31st Trade Deadline, a date that has become almost as active in terms of Indians’ movement over the past few years as the off-season. Regardless, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports listed his early-season candidates to possibly be moved in the next 10 weeks (and you’ll notice that Victor and CP Lee top the list) with the only appearance by an Indian coming with Kerry Wood.

Before making a comment that the Indians may have to include an MRI machine with Wood, Rosenthal writes that “the remainder of Wood’s $10.5 million salary will be an obstacle to any deal, but the Indians surely would pay some of that down to get a legitimate prospect in return.” Don’t forget that the last time that the Indians covered the remaining money on a traded player’s salary, they paid the entire 2008 salary of Lacey Cake, which…as we all know, netted them Los Santana.

Nevertheless, the piece got me thinking as to which veterans are likely to make their way out of Cleveland this year, assuming that some team would want them. It’s not even mid-May, I know, and there will be plenty of time to pore over potential landing spots for the players that the Indians are likely to move at some point, but the current list of those players is pretty well-known, fairly long, and (to date) largely undistinguished.

The obviousness that the likes of Wood, Peralta, Westbrook, and Branyan (none of whom have a guaranteed contract for 2011) has been apparent since the off-season…or in the case of Branyan, from the day that he was inexplicably signed. None of those players is going to be around in 2011 and if the second half of 2010 is going to be the continued ingratiation of the young players that WILL be around in 2010, it would behoove the Indians to acquire something of value for all of those players. Lest you think that the Indians can’t find takers for these guys, the Indians were able to find a trade partner for Ryan Garko last year…sure he netted them a AA starter that has a 7.62 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in the early going, but that pitcher (Scotty Barnes) also is likely headed for a transition to the bullpen (given his proclivity for the K as he’s striking out more than a hitter an inning) adding on to that pile of arms that lies beneath.

Beyond the obvious veterans that aren’t going to be around in September, while the local media decries the payroll-slashing ways of the team, ignoring that none of the players are part of the Indians’ future (just as they did in the case of free-agents-to-be DeRosa, Betancourt, and Pavano), there are the Jamey Wrights and Mark Grudzielaneks of the world. To me, those guys (and their ilk) but they fall more in line with the Jamey Carroll situation of last year where players like Wright and Grudzielanek (and maybe even Saul Rivera) are available anywhere, so their attractiveness if muted.

If you think that I’m just looking up and down the roster for everyone that isn’t under contract for next year and suggesting that the Indians considering jettisoning the whole lot, realize that there is one veteran player who is not under contract for next season represents the exception to the rule – Austin Kearns.

Perhaps this is jumping the gun a little and misinterpreting a solid start by Kearns into an indication that the player that averaged a line of .265 BA / .359 OBP / .450 SLG / .810 OPS the 113 games he averaged per season from 2002 to 2007 is somewhere close to returning, but the first month and a half of the season has revealed the Indians’ offense to be both left-handed centric and still wet behind the ears.

Kearns is neither of those things (LH or wet behind the ears) and he has been one of the only steady offensive performers on the team who has asserted himself into the everyday lineup the way that neither veterans (Peralta, Branyan) nor youngsters (Matt Matola, Brantley, Marson) seem to be doing with much aplomb. Whether he can continue to exceed expectations remains to be seen, but unlike the other veterans who figure to be moved this summer, Kearns may offer some value to the team throughout the 2010 season (and not just because of his $750K salary), but also past the 2010 season.

His performance to date has been reminiscent of the way that Marty Cordova emerged from nowhere in 2001 to re-establish his MLB value. Maybe Kearns parlays his 2010 season into being assured of a starting spot in 2011 somewhere the way that Cordova did with that strong 2001 (.855 OPS with 20 HR and 20 Doubles in 122 games) in Cleveland, leading the Orioles to sign him to a 3-year, $9.1M contract. Whether Kearns’ 2010 season will prompt a team to act as foolishly as the Orioles did with Cordova remains to be seen, but with the performance of Kearns to date considered (and given the makeup of the Indians’ roster, in terms of position players, going forward), the Indians have compelling reasons to keep Kearns on the North Coast past 2010, much less past July of this year.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think that Brantley and Matola are the LF and 1B of the future, both near and far (present performance considered), but on a team that looks to have 3 LH OF and a LH DH in Hafner for the foreseeable future, keeping Kearns around for the remainder of the 2010 season and even exploring the option of bringing him back to the team in 2011 (on a short deal) makes more sense than simply flipping him and entrusting the LF and 4th OF spots to Mike Brantley and Trevor Crowe, the two players who would most obviously fill those spots in Kearns’ absence.

Again, with the caveat that I do still feel that Mike Brantley is the starting LF of the very near future AND of the “Future”, his cumulative numbers in AAA (which include his time in Columbus this year) result in a line of a .272 BA / .353 OBP / .361 SLG / .714 OPS with just 31 extra-base hits in AAA in 592 plate appearances over 129 games. Think about that now…31 extra-base hits in nearly 600 plate appearances in AAA. For a player with Brantley’s speed, that seems almost impossible to do but it has been done. Seeing as how his adjustment to AAA pitching continues (and let’s remember that he does turn just 23 this Saturday), it doesn’t seem as if his adjustment to MLB is going to be much smoother. Perhaps Brantley simply will need time and AB to find success in MLB, but in the interim, it’s not hard to see how Kearns slots nicely as a LF, eventually moving to the 4th OF role if Brantley earns that opportunity to come to Cleveland.

With Kearns’ ability to play all three OF positions, unless you feel that Trevor Crowe is anything more than the beneficiary of 1st Round Draft Pick hype (and he’s not) meaning that he should be in line for that 4th OF spot, Kearns profiles quite well as a player who can fit into this lineup in either a starting capacity or a bench role…or both. Because he’s been around for such a long time, it’s easy to forget that Kearns is not-quite-yet 30 years old and him being a RH bat balances out both Sizemore and Choo as well as the Indians top 2 LF prospects, Brantley and Weglarz, both of whom are LH.

While I’m not advocating a perennial appearance of a Rusty Branyan or a Dellichaels to keep seats warm past this year, 2010 is providing proof that the development of prospects is not smooth or linear. Having a back-up plan that makes sense as either a part-time starter (subbing for any of the 3 OF or Hafner at DH) or as insurance for Brantley struggling or one of the OF getting injured without having to dip into the likes of Crowe is something that the Indians should consider with Kearns past 2010.

Trades are coming over the next 2 ½ months…don’t fool yourself into thinking that they’re not regardless of what the team’s record looks like in June or July. Most of the players that will obviously be on the block find themselves there not only because of contract status, but because their usefulness to a team without an obvious timeframe of contention is not compelling. That said, not all of the veterans on the 2010 team fall into this category as the case for Wood, Westbrook, Peralta, Branyan to remain on the team is not nearly as compelling as the case to keep Kearns for the remainder of the 2010 season and perhaps beyond, with the obvious caveat that his performance will likely make that decision.

That performance to date however, should give the Indians pause when considering about including him in the next batch of players that will find themselves elsewhere by the end of the season.

Swinging at a Lazy Sunday

Being Mother’s Day (or “St. Mother’s Day” as The DiaTot calls it…and I think he could be onto something here), let’s dispense with the pleasantries and get right going on a Lazy Sunday to give you something to read while you’re waiting for your Stadium Mustard and Jobu shirt to arrive and after you’ve had a chance to see Bruce Drennan provide the greatest 5 minutes of TV in recent memory…

As mentioned for the last couple of weeks, I was fortunate to be able to make it over to the Tribe Social Deck for Friday’s (non) game against the Tigers. After ignoring the pleas of meteorologists everywhere, we arrived to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario (after the prerequisite oil can of Miller Lite at Local Heroes) to head over to the Tribe Social Deck, excited to watch some Tribe baseball and with the knowledge that a TV exists in the TSD, which shall heretofore be referred to as “Mom’s Basement” (because if this misconception about bloggers is never going to go away, let’s embrace it) because the Cavs were facing off with the Celtics in Game 3.

Upon arrival, with the Doppler showing all of the colors of the rainbow, we were told that we wouldn’t actually be sitting in “Mom’s Basement” due to the weather (“Mom’s Basement” is in the front of the bleachers) and were given tix under the overhang behind home plate. While the game didn’t ultimately count, the highlight of the game (other than Hafner looking like…dare I say it…I do not) was hanging and sipping some 16 ouncers with t-bone and Craig Calcaterra, of The Hardball Times and blogger-in-chief of the terrific NBC Sports’ Hardball Talk. As the rain started to fall, Craig and I began to chat, as he says, “for a long time about life, baseball, Mad Dog 20/20 in brown bags at the University of Dayton and everything” as we realized that we had actually attended the same party at UD (confirmed by his memory that the bathroom in the house had autographed 8 x 10’s of Young MC and Joyce DeWitt hanging on the wall…which my college house did) many moons ago.

As the hail started to fall, and with the Cavs’ game no longer on the big screen (yes, it really was during the rain delay) with the victory in Boston secured, and we contemplated our drives home (his to Columbus more than mine to the West Side), we decided to leave the friendly confines as the tarp blew around the diamond, a choice that looks even wiser in hindsight as the game would be called 90 minutes later.

Next time, perhaps the experience will actually involve “Mom’s Basement” and I think that our suggestions to Rob Campbell of the Indians (who could not have been more accommodating) that anyone sitting in the Tribe Social Deck should be given bathrobes and have access to an unlimited supply of Hot Pockets may find a toehold in The TSD…er, “Mom’s Basement”.

Nevertheless, it is a Sunday, so moving on is what we do…
Thus, as the debate over what ails the Indians’ offense continues, I thought that it would be interesting to introduce a piece from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated examining the alarming increase in walks and strikeouts all over MLB baseball. Verducci says that, “baseball has become a game of attrition -- a kind of passive/aggressive pursuit - and it’s largely because of the way hitting is taught. Wait out the pitcher. Run up his pitch count. Swing early in the count only if the ball is in the middle of the plate. Take your walks.”

Sound like any team you know?
Reading Verducci’s piece however, it would certainly seem that this “swing-and-miss” or “don’t-swing-at-all” mentality doesn’t just exist on the North Coast and has some mind-boggling statistics to back it up:
In April, 28 percent of all major league plate appearances ended in a walk or a strikeout, continuing what has been virtually an unchecked increase in such non-contact plate appearances since the game was invented. Ten years ago, for instance, the rate of plate appearances without the ball being put into play was 26 percent; 20 years ago it was 24 percent; 30 years ago it was 21 percent . . . all the way back to 15 percent in 1920.
--snip--
When you combine strikeouts and walks, teams average 10.8 non-contact plate appearances per nine innings -- up 37 percent from 1980 and 24 percent even from 1968, in what famously became known as The Year of the Pitcher and helped convince baseball owners to lower the mound and adopt the designated hitter rule within the next five years.

If you’ve been watching the Indians, who are 5th in MLB with a 10.2 BB% and are 4th in MLB with a 24.4 K%, you’re quite familiar with this trend. Combining those two numbers means that 34.6% of Indians’ AB either ended with a walk or a strikeout, or more than 1/3 of the AB in any given game.
For some perspective on that, that percentage of Indians’ AB that either ended with a walk or a strikeout over the past 20 years (in 5 year increments) goes like this:
2005 – 27.5%
2000 – 29.1%
1995 – 24.7%
1990 – 22.7%
While those numbers are certainly interesting and seeing that number increase two-fold in a twenty year window is shocking, it’s likely that they’re more of a league-wide trend and the higher the number doesn’t necessarily equate into a worse offense. To wit, the two teams that have a higher percentage of AB that have had ended in a K or a BB are the Diamondback (35.5%) and the Padres (34.7%), and the Diamondbacks have scored the 2nd most runs in MLB with the Padres ranking (19th of 30 MLB teams) still making the Indians look positively toothless.

Perhaps the Indians are swinging and missing at pitches they shouldn’t be as Jon Steiner over at WFNY asserts. His conclusion (which isn’t surprising if you’ve been watching the games) that he backs up with some great leg work is that the most culpable players in wasting AB in the early going (most notably Sizemore, Hafner and, to a lesser extent, Peralta and Branyan) by chasing pitches are the very players that the offense is designed to rely on for run production.

It’s been said here before, but the onus of the offense does not fall onto the shoulders of the Lou Marsons, Matt Matolas, Luis Valbuenas of the world, but very squarely on those of Sizemore, Choo, and Cabrera with Peralta, Hafner, and Rusty designed to complement those three while the youngsters get their sea legs under them. Since Sizemore, Peralta, Hafner, and Rusty have all been wildly inconsistent and, at times, downright putrid, the offense has been…wait for it…wildly inconsistent and, at times, downright putrid. Again, this is taking a couple more swipes at that dead horse on the ground over there, but until those players (most notably Sizemore) turn things around, that inconsistency and propensity for putridness (if that’s not a word, I’ve just created one to describe the Tribe offense) will continue.

On the topic of Sizemore, Terry Pluto points out (among other juicy nuggets) “that something has happened to his power. Even playing with an elbow that would require surgery, Sizemore had 18 homers in 436 at-bats in 2009…So either there is an injury problem, or Sizemore has lost some power because of problems with his swing.”

For an answer to that, let’s turn to the beacon of light among the Tribe beat writers, one Mr. Anthony Castrovince, who addresses that very topic (amongst many) in the latest “Inbox”:
Sizemore used to generate a lot of topspin when he made contact, but he was strong enough and his hands were fast enough that he could get away with it and still drive the ball. Trouble is, such a swing can put a great deal of stress on the elbow upon contact, and all that stress caught up to Sizemore last year, prompting arthroscopic surgery.

What you’re seeing this year could be a byproduct of Sizemore attempting to shorten his swing and get more backspin on the ball. It’s proving to be a difficult adjustment for Sizemore to make, but it would certainly help his career, long-term. His old approach causes more strikeouts and more stress on the elbow, and his power numbers would have diminished with age. A shortened swing could allow him to raise that batting average over time and become a more consistent hitter.

That certainly makes more sense than the idea that Sizemore has completely fallen off of the map as a hitter as the adjustment may change his game and bears watching as the season continues.

Given the insight from both Pluto and Castrovince, I know that this gets hammered away at in this space, but isn’t it amazing the way that the coverage from those two have made nearly all other mainstream media forms of communication (other than Stephanie Storm, who is woefully underutilized at the ABJ) obsolete?

Meanwhile, the troika of beat writers who have covered the team forever claim that the Sabathia and Lee deals are ALREADY failures (I’m not providing the link, just know that it’s out there) or that still bemoan the low payroll (in a rebuilding year) as the main reason that attendance is so low, simply inflaming the masses by ignoring the greater issues at hand (both with the organization and with MLB) and content to take the sports-talk radio level potshots at the team.

To that end, with quite a bit of the “Dolan is Cheap” pieces coming out in response to the 2010 season that apparently has taken the city by surprise, I thought I would pass along a letter penned by one of the readers over at the LGT. In it, Eric Davis presents some information to the Columbus Dispatch’s Rob Oller (who I’m not familiar with) that should be on the fingertips of the media that cover the Indians. The whole letter is worth a read as it doesn’t absolve the Indians from culpability in the mess at hand (and rightfully so), but the high points include:
This mantra, oft repeated by the Cleveland.com community, conveniently forgets the widening financial equality gap that exists in Major League Baseball. I ask, would your audience had not been better suited to read an article with deeper insights concerning the frustrations of small to mid market teams to compete on the same level as teams who routinely spend up to $100 million more on payroll, rather than a simple reduction such as SPEND MORE MONEY?
--snip--
Can the Indians do better? Certainly. They are notoriously lousy at drafting talent, and have failed spectacularly in certain areas of player development (Sowers, Peralta, Carmona, etc.) Can they spend more? Maybe, but the rival Twins payroll is now pushing $100 million. How much more spending would bring about an instant winner? Would $20 million in additional payroll guarantee 10 more wins? Would that result in an attendance increase of 100,000 fans? How much more should be spent to be ‘better’?
--snip--
Isn’t the money better put into long-term player development so one, as Mark Shapiro puts it “can more aggressively manage the cycle.” The cycle, of course, is the bane of small to mid market teams that they have smaller competitive windows due to the current state of free agency. By trading Sabathia, Lee and Martinez, the Indians acquired a raft of potential big league talent. Growing pains, like those you see in 2010, are to be expected. Who knows, perhaps none of this talent (LaPorta, Brantley, Donald, Hagadone, Knapp, Carrasco, Santana et al) will pan out. But frankly, the Indians might be better positioned than some of their small market brethren to compete and win in 2012 and beyond — or until the next inevitable trading of stars on the cusp of free agency occurs.

Perhaps you see that as the “drinking the Kool-Aid” stance, but the financial realities that are listed in the letter (which have been hammered home here all Winter and Spring, among other places) are very real without much hope for substantive change in the very near future. Maybe people don’t want to hear about the disparity in revenue in MLB and tire quickly of the “we’re not the Yankees” excuse, but it brings into focus a major issue that I have with the mainstream media (how the majority of sports fans continue to get their news, for better or worse) in how the Indians’ season has been presented…by some, at least.

The question that is being missed by the majority of the mainstream media, quick to take the easy road which appeals to the base emotions of the fan base without presenting facts, would be to ask why the Indians (and their “small market brethren”) are content to exist in such an economic environment?

Is the power wielded from the large-market teams too large to overcome, even by a coalition of teams like the Indians, the Brewers (who are off to a bad start and are about to see what happened in Cleveland over the last few years happen to them), the Rays, and their ilk?

Why did Game 1 of the World Series pass without much more than a comment from the Indians that “it’s tough to see Lee and Sabathia out there, but we’re proud of them as players” when the situation was ripe for some soapbox preaching?

Is there simply THAT much money to be made, regardless of performance on the field that they’re just happy to have a seat at the adults’ table?

Until those questions are asked and answered, there’s going to be that ability to quickly deride the Dolans for “buying high” and “not being able to afford to field a competitive team” year in and year out.

Whether the answers to those questions ultimately reinforce the feelings that many fans have on the Dolans and the Indians largely depends on preconceptions coming into the situation, but the situation in Cleveland is not unlike one that is likely to develop in Milwaukee over the next year or two as well as perhaps even in Tampa, where the future looks as bright for the organization as the future of an organization back in Fall of 2007.

Today however, 2007 seems like a lifetime ago…

Tomahawks Every Which Way to…Lose

While listening to the call of the grounder going right through the wickets formerly known as Louie V (call him Louie Wickets) and the subsequent HR by Adam Lind, I could only shake my head and say to myself, “ah…2010 Indians’ baseball.” Losing them this way, losing them that way – it’s going to be coming at us from all directions this year, so we might as well grab a drink and do something that is always a good idea when drinking – throw some tomahawks…
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Back in 2007, when The Fist of Iron and the Fist of Steel resided the Indians’ bullpen (don’t ever call them Raffy Left, etc. unless you’re devoid of an ounce of originality), another nickname for the left-handed portion of the Fists once made the rounds. Rafael Perez was known (perhaps only to me) as The Scarecrow, with some hack even writing that “with his tall, slender build, long arms and legs always akimbo, and his hat pulled down low, it always remind me of a Scarecrow on the mound when Perez goes into his wind-up as Perez guards a Tribe lead like any good Scarecrow guards a field.”

While I’m not sure how the Wicked Witch of the West appeared on the North Coast, it would seem that The Scarecrow has been exposed to fire and, with his propensity to carry a gasoline can in from the bullpen with him these days, the straw is dwindling before our very eyes.

You know the ugliness (7.36 ERA, 2.87 WHIP, 1.146 OPS against in 2010) and you know that the situation hasn’t improved from his nightmarish 2009 season (7.31 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, .899 OPS against) , to the point that his earned run total since the beginning of the 2009 season exceeds his strikeout total.

Think about that – Perez has allowed more earned runs (45) in his last 64 games than he has struck people out (37)…yes, more ER than K from the beginning of 2009 to today. Long gone is the dominant reliever who, from 2006 to 2008 posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, striking out more than a hitter per inning pitched. Despite the positive reports from the Winter (why is this a theme?) and the intimation that he was pitching so well in Winter League ball that they might consider making him a starter again at some point, the train has gone off of the tracks and (given the nature of relief pitchers) is unlikely to find itself back on them.

What is to be done with Rafael Perez, one of the poster children for how things can fall so far, so quickly for Indians’ players over the past 3 years?

Unless the Indians REALLY think that he’s still a reclamation project (he isn’t) and because he’s out of options, the only choice that the Indians have is to outright him off of the 25-man roster, expose him to the waiver wire, and hope that he clears so he can be sent down to the Minors. Whether a trip to the Minors will benefit him at this point is anyone’s guess (as is the notion that some team will look past the last year and a half of his performance and claim him), but the Indians have zero confidence in Perez (and rightfully so) and should start moving some pieces and parts around in the bullpen to see if they can find, ironically enough, what they did in Perez in 2006 – a modest pitching prospect who can effectively contribute for a couple of years in the bullpen.

Is that guy Josh Tomlin or Yohan Pino?
Who knows, but the carousel is about to start in the bullpen, with Saul Rivera having an out clause in his contract if he isn’t on the MLB roster by May 15th and with Kerry Wood’s rehab assignments continuing in earnest.

Given that we have already seen Hector Ambriz come up to replace Joe Smith, and he has looked decent in his brief time with the team, you’re about to see that I-71 Shuffle begin amongst the middle relief pitchers to see who can throw up some scoreless innings. Most of the current relievers can lay claim to some success (except The Scarecrow) as Jamey Wright’s stranded all 12 stranded runners that he’s inherited and Lewis and Laffey have shown promise, if not consistency. Short of anyone not named C.F. Perez (who has given up earned runs in 1 of his 11 outings…you notice the “earned” designation) and Tony Sipp, I’m fine with moving some of these pieces and parts around in the bullpen to see if the Indians can find some of that lightning in a bottle that every other team in MLB seems to find in their crawlspace.

Wherever that lightning is coming from, the Indians shouldn’t be reticent to make some moves and the first move needs to be taking The Scarecrow out of the field before the fire spreads.
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This little “prediction” was written at the beginning of April as part of my convoluted “Season Preview” where the crystal ball may have actually had some clarity:
May 22nd vs. Cincinnati Reds
The widespread roster machinations continue as Luis Valbuena, being used increasingly in recent weeks in a platoon with Mark Grudzielanek at 2B, is sent to Columbus after failing to get to three groundballs induced by Jake Westbrook in a 7-4 loss to the Reds. After the game, manager Manny Acta proclaims that, “with as many groundball pitchers as we have on this staff, failing to get to those balls is inexcusable and Luis knows better than that”. To replace him at 2B, Jason Donald is called up as he is scorching AAA pitching for Columbus while providing stellar infield defense for the Clippers. Donald begins to play everyday for the Indians at 2B after his call-up, posting average numbers at the plate but combining with Asdrubal Cabrera to provide an airtight middle of the infield defense that improves the “luck” of the groundball starters dramatically. The move of Valbuena to AAA and Donald to MLB is one that will remain in place until Valbuena ascends after rosters expand in September as he prepares to assume his role as Future Utility Infielder with Donald using the opportunity in 2010 to cement his place as the Indians’ 2B.

Maybe the quote wasn’t there from Acta after Wednesday’s debacle and I’m not sure that you make a move simply because of one play (Louis V had the double in the 8th to make it a 2-run game), but this move is coming and it is not far off…
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While I’m not one to subscribe to the notion that one can’t drink clear liquor from Labor Day to Memorial Day, I often find that my preferences in beer do vary wildly by the season. That is, a light wheat beer certainly doesn’t play as well against the Winter wind the way that a hearty stout does…and vice versa. Call it Drinking by Season, or whatever you want to, but the fact that most beer labels have developed a full “seasonal” line lends some credence to this idea. Of course, the High Life remains in steady rotation throughout, but the idea that I like to hang with a particular beer for a season is a practice that I find to be more than enjoyable.

That being said, with Memorial Day (and Carlos Santana) fast approaching, it’s time to start narrowing down the Beer of the Summer for 2010. Realizing that some past winners (312 by Goose Island, Blonde Bombshell by Indigo Imp, Pale Ale by Bell’s) are not eligible for inclusion in the running, it’s time to ask for some suggestions.

Generally, the rules are that I won’t go with a seasonal offering from a brewery because of the variance that will go from year to year (Christmas Ale, 2009 – Tremendous; Christmas Ale 2010 – Not So Much) and don’t even THINK about including a beer brewed by a large brewery (even if it is done in an underhanded way, like Blue Moon is) or anything that is coming out of a certain Boston brewery as I have my feelings about Boston that prevent me from drinking anything brewed there.

The leader in the clubhouse is another Bell’s Brewery offering, Third Coast Beer, that I just had at the local Winking Lizard (though I have yet to find it on the shelves anywhere) and I’ve ruled out Holy Moses from GLBC because of the fruitiness. Also, all of the Dogfish Head IPA’s have been ruled out due to the way my head feels the next day after drinking more than 3 or 4…same with Stone’s Levitation Ale. I like the Southern Tier Phin & Matt’s (plus, I’ve been to that brewery), though I can’t find that on the shelves anywhere either…which is another prerequisite.

So, let’s hear it…if I’m going to be watching this Indians’ team all summer I’m going to need to be sufficiently lubricated to do so.
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While it was written a while ago, I thought that the recent uptick in Lou Marson’s performance (his OPS over the last 6 games that he has started is 1.049) merited a mention for a piece by Ken Rosenthal as he explained why the A’s Kurt Suzuki won’t end up in Boston:
So, why won’t Suzuki be in Boston by July 31?
Because A’s general manager Billy Beane would want an even better package for Suzuki, who is under club control for three-plus seasons, than the Red Sox traded for Victor Martinez, who was under control for one-plus.
The Sox parted with pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price for Martinez, and they actually had leverage over the Indians, who needed to clear payroll.
They would possess no such leverage over the A’s.
Suzuki is a better all-around player and more valuable asset than Martinez was last July. The A’s are capable of carrying him through his early years of arbitration. At least for the moment, they lead the AL West.
The Red Sox will need to target other catchers.

Lots of little nuggets in those 129 words, what with the “leverage over the Indians, who needed to clear payroll”, that the Indians are looking to move Vic to 1B (where he is decidedly less valuable, if you remember), right down to the idea that the “Red Sox will need to target other catchers”. Also interesting that the rest of the piece focuses on Steve Strasburg being in the Minors because of Super 2 concerns, which brings us back to the idea that the Indians may be sitting on some MLB catching depth in June because of the imminent arrival of Carlos Santana, who will ostensibly relegate Marson to AAA.

Just to take this a step further, on March 23rd of last year, Nick Cafardo wrote this in a story about the Red Sox looking for a defensively-minded young catcher:
The Phillies have been talking to the Sox about prospect Lou Marson, but the price tag seems to be Buchholz or Daniel Bard and the Sox aren’t going there.

Starting to connect the dots?
While the idea that the Phillies’ price tag was Buchholz or Bard (putting Marson’s value prior to the 2009 season into context, but also perhaps the reason that Marson was included in the Lee deal), wouldn’t it stand to reason that Marson would remain on the Red Sox radar?

The price tag probably would come down precipitously, but don’t be surprised in Marson is the latest in a suddenly long line of catchers to make their way from Cleveland to Boston (Bard, Victor) or vice versa (Shoppach).
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Speaking of Boston, momentum is growing in Beantown for the Red Sox to limit the playing time or even cut ties with a rapidly declining Big Papi, for reasons laid out here by Craig Calcaterra, if you’re not aware of the situation.

In hearing this (the idea that the Red Sox should SERIOUSLY consider getting rid of Ortiz), I thought it would be interesting to lay down some numbers:
David Ortiz – 2010
.171 BA / .266 OBP / .414 SLG / .680 OPS with 5 2B and 4 HR in 79 plate appearances

Travis Hafner – 2010
.213 BA / .310 OBP / .363 SLG / .692 OPS with 3 2B and 3 HR in 97 plate appearances

David Ortiz – 2009
.238 BA / .332 OBP / .462 SLG / .794 OPS with 35 2B and 28 HR in 627 plate appearances

Travis Hafner – 2009
.272 BA / .355 OBP / .470 SLG / .826 OPS with 19 2B and 16 HR in 338 plate appearances

David Ortiz
Owed $12.5M in 2010 with $12.5M club option for 2011 (no buyout)

Travis Hafner
Owed $11.5M in 2010, $13M in 2011, $13M in 2012 with $13M club option for 2013 ($2.75M buyout)

Lest you think that this path being suggested for the Red Sox (that they’re unlikely to follow) applies to the Indians’ similar struggles with their rapidly declining DH, that would be $12.5M still owed to Ortiz and $40.25M still owed to Hafner, counting this year in both cases. Hafner’s here, for better or worse, for the next couple of years (at least), which is why the company line is toed so often in that he’s going to return. GM-in-waiting Chris Antonetti recently said this to AC:
The primary issue is just getting him going. He still has all the ingredients of what we saw at the end of Spring Training. He was certainly locked in for a couple weeks, and we just need to get him back to that point. It’s still really early in the season, and there’s a lot of time to get him on track.

They’re still optimistic because they NEED to be optimistic. Whether they truly believe that a successful Hafner is somewhere in there, just waiting to break out is a completely different story.
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Finally, a quick reminder that I’ll be up in the Tribe Social Deck for the Friday night game, so if you’re a glutton for punishment like I am (or aren’t aware that the Cavs are playing at 7 PM on Friday as well), pop your head in to say hello.

Growing Pains

Sitting in the RF stands Monday night, actually hearing the whir of the Goodyear blimp hovering above the Gateway Plaza on Monday night (yes, it was quiet enough at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario during the game to make the noise put off by a blimp hundreds of feet overhead audible to all “enjoying” a Tribe game), the thought passed through my mind – this was coming…

This season, frustrating and depressing, was known to be on our doorstep last July when the Indians punted on the 2010 season with the trades of CP Lee and El Capitan. Forget the rest of the ancillary parts that got moved last year, when the team traded Lee and Vic in a stunning acknowledgement that the Front Office didn’t think that the Indians could win WITH their reigning Cy Young Award winner and #3 hitter…we knew this season was coming.

The inconsistency, the losses by “this much”, the losses by “THAT much”, they’ve started and they’re going to keep coming. While the glimmers of hope are difficult to discern amongst the frustration, we are left with the knowledge that the 2010 team has little to no chance to contend, even in the AL Central, where the Indians have the 2nd worst record in the AL and are ½ game out of 3rd place in their division.
And yet, this has been bearing down on us for the last 9 months.

Perhaps the frustrating aspects of the team are not where we thought they would be nor are the strengths (to date) of the team, but this inconsistency that’s been on display since day one is indicative of any team on the “rebuild/reload/whatever”. As much ink was wasted and breath was passed regarding how important that “fast start” was all Spring, the Indians were still a team in transition, a label that still applies today and will continue to apply.

The moves have been made to “manage the cycles” prevalent in the current structure of MLB and more moves are coming. Lest anyone label the moves that are coming as “Fire Sale #3” when the likes of Westbrook, Peralta (does anyone know which team is currently cutting a paycheck to former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi so I can let him know that Jhonny has a .987 OPS in his last 11 games?), and Wood (um…yeah) are sent on their way, it will essentially complete the overhaul that was started nearly 24 months ago when CC found his way to Milwaukee.

In July of last year, there was no pretense that 2010 represented much more than the first year of the Indians attempting to rebuild a contending team as they attempted to foster the young talent in the organization while trying to resurrect lost careers of veterans, either for trade purposes or for contractual purposes. That assumption that 2010 begins the transition is easy to lose sight of (particularly with the calendar just flipping to May), but it is a reality nonetheless.

Thus, as mind-numbing as it is to watch Rusty Branyan and Peralta flail away at pitches, there has to be a realization that those aren’t the guys that are going to shoulder the load for the Indians in the next few years and aren’t seen as viable candidates to be on the Indians’ roster even three months from now. Fans can get worked up about the failures of Branyan and Peralta and wring their hands over Wood, but that narrow view is not the one in play this year. The gaze is past this year (already) and, while the Indians would probably like to win some games in the process, the development and maturation of the players that do project to shoulder the load past 2010 is where the focus should remain.

Perhaps that focus is what gets blurry, made wavy and ugly by watching an obviously flawed team night after night. Night in and night out, it’s not Jamey Wright and Peralta and Branyan that should draw ire or concern…instead it’s Choo, Cabrera, Carmona and Sizemore that should be receiving the lion’s share of attention as those are the players that are most important to this team when it will matter…but that just isn’t this year.

Certainly, the first month of 2010 has already contained some surprises (Fausto and The Fury, which sounds like the name of a band) and some disappointments, most notably Hafner’s health and ineffectiveness after a Spring of optimistic, albeit prematurely optimistic, reports. All told however, the season to date has been dreadful and while some may be ready to throw dirt on the grave of most of the current players, notably Grady Sizemore’s career (something I’m not quite ready to do, unlike that of the Indians former SS/current 3B), if 2010 can be used to pull some of these veterans out of their tailspins (however unlikely they may seem at certain times), then the season will have provided blocks to build upon.

All winter, the cry among most was to “let the kids play” and with a month gone in the season, that’s what we’re getting. The young players are out there, taking their lumps and attempting to adjust to MLB, which means that there will be the bad to go hand-in-hand with the good. To wit, Dave Huff has gone from potential pillar to pariah in a matter of weeks as Lou Marson has gone from laughingstock to one of the better hitters in the lineup (not that the competition in the group is stiff) in the same timeframe.

If you’re expecting a different path to be taken throughout the season, get ready for some disappointment because that’s not going to change. As great as it would be to have an Austin Jackson burst onto the scene, remember that the last young Indians’ hitter to burst on the scene was Ben Francisco, who just as famously fizzled out and now finds himself tethered to the Phillies’ bench as a 28-year-old 4th OF. That being said, there’s no question that some signs of life from the Matt LaPorta/Mike Brantley/Luis Valbuena portion of the roster would be a welcome respite from wondering if the veterans will be able to carry any weight on the roster when (or is it if?) the young talent develops.

At the risk of beating that dead horse, that development is the crux of the season and, more specifically, flattening out the learning curve for the young talent currently in the organization from Cleveland to Kinston.

The season quickly becomes a series of “ifs”…
“If” C.F. Perez can establish himself as a viable closer and one to two more young relievers (let’s say Sipp and Jenny Lewis, just to put names on it) can assert themselves into the team legitimately having some confidence in a bullpen mix going for…

“If” Carmona can return to even a close facsimile of his former self while Huff or Talbot (or both) prove that they can legitimately lay claim to a rotational spot in 2011 and beyond…

“If” some semblance of a consistent everyday lineup can be achieved with the troika of The BLC, Cabrera, and Sizemore leading the way and the quartet of LaPorta, Santana, Donald/Valbuena, and Brantley following close behind…

“If” Travis Hafner can…well, that one doesn’t really have a sunny outlook to even dream on, but you get the idea.

That’s what this season is for, to answer those “ifs” because not all of them will come down on the positive side of the ledger. To ascertain answers to those questions, this roster needs to flesh itself out and reveal itself over the course of a season, not just over the course of a month. It’s horrible to witness every day…I know, but the individual results will dictate how near or how far away this organization is from making legitimate steps back up that mountain that looms ahead of them, so tall and so foreboding.

Truth be told, expectations weren’t that high to begin with for the season and the start has borne out those expectations. That’s not pointed out to absolve the state of the organization, only that this season likely represents the low point after the rapid descent down from near the mountain top in 2007.

We knew that this season was coming, the question that would be best served to find an answer in 2010 would be – how many more similar seasons are coming on its heels?

Lazy Mayday Sunday

May is here, Paul is in Florida, and T-Bone is here for another sub-par Lazy Sunday. All signs for a "Mayday! Mayday!" distress call from you the reader. So without further adieu...

- After watching Droobs knock in the winning run in the 11^th last night, those left in the ballpark took to the concourse to watch The King, Mo and crew take out the Celtics in Game 1 over at the Q.

- Those in the Tribe Social Deck, however, had the best of both worlds.

- In case you missed it, Hector Ambriz was activated off the 15-day DL Friday, called up and pitched a scoreless eighth in the loss to the Twinkies. Ambriz was a Rule 5 selection from the Diamondbacks, so he must stick around the rest of the season or be offered back to AZ for $25,000. Joe Smith and his 7.71 ERA through nine appearances was sent down to Columbus, although Manny Acta says not to read too much into the move.

- Those Twins new road uniforms are really sharp, aren't they? Love their home throwback as well.

- Kerry Wood will be starting his rehab assignment soon, and it looks like it will be in Akron.

- We should thank both Paul and Vince over at ’64 and Counting for giving Jhonny a kick in the pants. Over his last six games, JP is mashing (.435/.481/.783/1.264).

- More good stuff over at ’64 and Counting, as Vince touches on both the inaccuracy of the “Most-Hated Baseball Team" rankings along with the fact the Indians are among those teams considering giving their ballpark a facelift.

- Paul touched on him Thursday, but there’s more chatter out there for Jason Donald to get a call-up to the show sooner than later. Terry's Talkin' briefly touches on Donald while Tony Lastoria names him the Indians Prospect Insider Minor League Player of the Week.

- Pluto closes with two things that strike a chord with me. The first being Chris Perez not being allowed to talk after games (most recently running his mouth after losing on a squeeze bunt in Anaheim), the second being a grass-roots effort to get The Rock into the Hall of Fame. No, not Dwayne Johnson, but Rocky Colavito. I grew up in a house where Rocky was revered, so clicking through this site was time well spent, and I’ll definitely be putting in a call to my dad this afternoon to make sure he saw the site. Be sure to catch the Detroit Free Press interview with Colavito, published on the 50^th anniversary of the infamous trade for Harvey Kuenn.

- I’ll conclude with a reminder for everyone to tune into Paul and Tony Lastoria’s weekly all-things-Tribe show, Smoke Signals, airing each and every Thursday evening on The Cleveland Fan Live. Since I can rarely catch the boys live, I bring the them along on “long run days” as I prep for the CLE Half Marathon. Thanks guys for making those long ones a little easier, and thanks to all of you for making it though this Paul-less Lazy one.