Cleveland Indians Prospect Countdown: #51-46

And so it begins. We kick of the 2012 countdown with a LOOGY, a couple of catchers, an outfielder that suffered an untimely injury, a starter who took a step back last season and a prospect who had fallen off the map proving that it was a little too early to write him off after all. As my boss at work likes to say; let's kick this pig.

51. Eric Berger, RHP
DOB: 4/22/1986
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Acquired: 8^th round pick in 2008
2011 Stats: 2-1 with a 4.04 ERA, 87 K and 36 BB in 71 1/3 IP between AA Akron and AAA Columbus

Scouting Report: If this were a moustache countdown, Berger would be at the top, not the bottom. But he’s not just a pretty face. The University of Arizona product has a chance to be a left specialist in the show, as he put up some really solid numbers in AA Akron last year. In 57 innings for the Aeros, Berger went 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA, striking out 67 and walking 22. His fastball sits in the low-90’s, and he has a big, sweeping 12/6 curveball to go along with it. He was a starter through the 2010 season, but after 2010 the Indians made the choice to go with him in a relief role in order to accelerate his timetable to the show. He’s going to play 2012 as a 26-year old, so he need a big year in AAA to put himself ahead of the plethora of relief options that the Indians have in the upper levels of their system.

Berger’s career numbers are solid, but not spectacular. He’s 19-16 in his 4 year career in the Indians organization, with 355 strikeouts and 180 BB in 365 2/2 innings pitched. His K/9 rate took a nice bump last year in the conversion to a full-time relief role, as he struck out more than a batter per inning at both AA and AAA Columbus. He was used against both righthanded and lefthanded batters, but his stuff was really more effective against southpaws. If he’s used a little more selectively, the results could be even better.

With as much success as Berger has had at AA, he’s struggled to have his stuff translate to the International League. His career AA ERA is 3.59 with 173 K and 90 BB in 178 innings pitched. But in AAA, his ERA balloons to 7.38. Part of that is usage, as he’s frequently been called up to Columbus to either make a spot start or pitch out of the bullpen on short notice. It’s awfully tough to settle into a routine when you’re driving down I-71 to pitch against hitters that you don’t even have a scouting report on. Berger has a good chance to pitch in the AAA bullpen full time this year, and he could establish himself as one of the better lefthanded relievers in the system.
Glass Half-Full: A LOOGY in the show, with an 80-grade moustache
Glass Half-Empty: AAA LOOGY, with an 80-grade moustache

50. Alex Monsalve, C
DOB: 4/22/1992
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: International Free Agent in 2008
2011 Stats: .264/.313/.356 with 5 HR and 44 RBI in 117 games with low-A Lake County

Scouting Report: Monsalve is a big, strong catching prospect out of Venezuela. He played the 2011 season at just 19 years old, and showed lots of improvement from his 2010 season where he went just .220/.243/.313 for the Arizona League Indians. Monsalve made the Midwest League midseason all-star team, and finished 5^th on the Captains in OPS among players with at least 50 Midwest League games. He still needs to work on his pitch recognition and approach, as he struck out 96 times last year against just 31 walks, but after a 4/52 ratio the season before, that was actually a nice improvement.

Monsalve has the raw tools to catch, as he is a good athlete has a solid arm. His actions are quick for his size, and he transfers and gets rid of the ball in a hurry. He needs to move better behind the plate and get experience working with a pitching staff, but the ability is there. More than anything, he just needs more reps behind the dish. He outplayed high draft pick and bonus baby Alex Lavisky in the Midwest League, despite being a year younger than the St. Ed’s product. So while Monsalve is raw, there’s a lot to like here. There’s a chance he ends up moving to 1B down the line, which would cause his prospect standing to take a bit of a hit because he’d really need to improve his bat to play at 1B.

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo ranked Monsalve as the number 9 prospect in the entire organization. Obviously, I don’t like him THAT much, but Mayo usually puts his rankings together after talking to people inside each organization. He did have a solid season, but his OPS was just .669 and I don’t think his raw tools are as good as Lavisky’s or some of the other catchers in the organization. Still, he’s a guy to keep an eye on this year, and will likely open up at high-A Carolina. If he can follow up his 2011 with a better year in the Carolina League in 2012, we might have something here. Until then, I’m comfortable having Monsalve ranked where I have him.
Glass Half-Full: A solid backup or 2^nd division starter
Glass Half-Empty: AAA backup

49. T.J. House, LHP
DOB: 9/29/1989
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: Right/Left
Acquired: 16^th round pick in 2008
2011 Stats: 6-12, 5.19 ERA with 89 K and 66 BB in 130 IP for high-A Kinston

Scouting Report: House took a step backwards in his development last year, struggling to get outs while repeating high-A Kinston. He was originally an overslot signing out of Picayune High School in Mississippi, and was committed to Tulane before the Indians came in with a $750,000 bonus offer. He throws a fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. The fastball sits between 90 and 93 MPH and can touch 95. It comes from a 3/4 arm slot and has nice arm-side run that helps it tail away from righthanded hitters. The slider is his best secondary pitch, as it has outstanding late life and good, hard break. His changeup is an average pitch that flashes plus, and he added the curveball in 2010 to have something in his arsenal that will change the eye level of hitters and keep them honest.

House ran into trouble with his command last year in Kinston, seeing his walk rate rise and his strikeout rate fall. His home run rate also went up, as he gave up 12 after only allowing 7 in 2010. He was repeating the level, and I really expected a better season out of the young southpaw. He had some issues with his delivery, and the Kinston staff helped him work through and become a little more consistent. His last start of the year was one of his best, going 6 1/3 innings, giving up 2 runs and striking out 8 and walking 3. Hopefully, it is a sign of things to come for House. He should open 2012 in AA Akron, and needs to have a bounceback season to get back on the right track in becoming an important part of the organization going forward. He has the talent to be a middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues, he just needs to pitch up to his ability. I actually like House a lot, and think there’s a good chance he can put himself back in the upper half of the organizational rankings. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but reports are that House is in the best shape of his life heading into spring training this year, and if he can get off on the right foot in 2012, things could really take off for the young lefty.
Glass Half-Full: A middle of the rotation starter
Glass Half-Empty: A swingman out of the bullpen

48. Bo Greenwell, OF
DOB: 10/15/1988
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Acquired: 6^th round pick in 2007
2011 Stats: .282/.341/.411 with 4 HR, 29 RBI and 6 SB in 69 games between high-A Kinston and the Rookie League Arizona Indians

Scouting Report: Greenwell was having a nice season for the Kinston Indians last year, but it ended up getting sidetracked by injuries. He only ended up playing in 65 games for the K-Tribe, and was really locked in and hitting the ball hard when he went down with a broken bone in his hand after getting hit by a pitch. He was injured on June 12, and wasn’t back in the Carolina League until August 30. Missing basically two and a half months makes it pretty tough to put together a solid statistical season, but there was still plenty to like for Greenwell in 2011.

Despite not putting up amazing numbers, Greenwell had a good year from a scouting perspective. The former high school football player put on some weight, filling out what was a wiry strong frame. He has a much thicker lower half now than he did in 2010, in a good way. His lower body strength should add a considerable amount of pop to his game. He has a pretty lefthanded swing, uses his hands well and already engages his lower half well. He uses his hips well, and does a nice job barreling the ball. He projects to hit for a decent average and have at least average power down the road.

Greenwell is an outstanding athlete with good prospect pedigree. He’s the son of former Red Sox all-star Mike Greenwell, and has been around baseball all of his life. He turned down a full scholarship offer to play baseball at Miami to sign with the Indians out of his Florida high school. He has good speed and is an aggressive defender, but his arm is just fringe-average which will limit him to LF down the road. He’s an intelligent player who you can tell loves to be on the field, and he’s a real leader no matter what team he’s on. Greenwell is a tireless worker who you can count on getting the most out of his tools. He hit mostly out of the #3 hole for Kinston last year, so he was a guy that opposing pitchers really had to focus on and he didn’t have a chance to sneak up on anyone. He’s got great intangibles, and the sum of his parts will be greater that all of his tools taken separately. He’s probably stuck in LF long term defensively, but his bat profiles better in CF than it does in a corner OF position. Still, if the strength he added last season carries over to his production in 2012, Greenwell could hit enough to play LF after all. He might start back in high-A Carolina in 2012, but should move up to AA Akron quickly. Greenwell is a kid that you can’t help but like, and I’m really excited to see what he can do in AA Akron once he gets called up to the Eastern League.
Glass Half-Full: A LF who hits well out of the #2 hole
Glass Half-Empty: Trevor Crowe

47. Beau Mills, 1B
DOB: 8/15/1986
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Acquired: 1^st round pick in 2007
2011 Stats: .289/.347/.513 with 18 HR and 67 RBI in 96 games between AA Akron and AAA Columbus

Scouting Report: Most people were ready to write off the former 1^st round draft pick as a non-prospect, myself included. He won the Carolina League MVP award with an .880 OPS in 2008, then struggled through two poor seasons in AA Akron in 2009-2010. He hit just .241/.312/.377 in 2010, and that was him repeating AA. He began 2011 injured, and was more or less a forgotten man when he made his debut for Akron in mid-May. A funny thing happened though…Mills started hitting. Credit the Indians coaching staff for tinkering with his swing and shortening his stride to improve his balance and timing, but Mills went for a .300/.358/.522 line with 11 HR and 49 RBI in 61 games for the Aeros. Still, this was his 3^rd consecutive season in the Eastern League, so this wasn’t as much a breakout as it was Mills doing what he was supposed to do.

Mills was called up to AAA Columbus, and continued to hit, putting up a .269/.326/.496 line with 7 HR and 18 RBI in 35 International League games. Hitting can be contagious, and Mills’ success at Akron gave him the confidence to keep producing in Columbus. He’s still not a great athlete, he’s still not going to be a great defender, but at least he is back hitting again. Now, Mills is already 25 years old and will turn 26 in August, so time is starting to run out for him to make good on his prospect pedigree. He needs to build on last year’s season, and keep hitting for power in AAA Columbus this year. He’s always been a bat-only prospect, and his bat will be the only thing that can carry him to the big leagues. His approach and pitch recognition could still use a little work, as he had 32 walks against 59 strikeouts last year. But for a guy who I never even considered putting on this list last year, 2011 was a really encouraging season. He’s not a top rated guy anymore and isn’t someone I expect to be an option in Cleveland this season, but maybe, just maybe, there’s still something there.
Glass Half-Full: 2011 Beau Mills
Glass Half-Empty: 2010 Beau Mills

46. Roberto Perez, C
DOB: 12/23/1988
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 33^rd round draft pick in 2008
2011 Stats: .225/.365/.310 with 2 HR and 30 RBI in 94 games for high-A Kinston

Scouting Report: It’s no secret to those who have read my work in the past that I’m a little biased towards catchers. It’s the position I’ve always played, from little league through college and now in adult leagues, and so I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for those players that willingly don the tools of ignorance. Of all of the catchers in the Indians organization, Roberto Perez is one of my favorites. He’s an outstanding defensive catcher, one of the best in all of minor league baseball. He has great catch and throw skills, recording consistent pop times in the sub-2 second range. I had him at 1.8 on a couple of throws last spring, which is outstanding. He moves well behind the plate, doing an excellent job blocking pitches in the dirt and keeping the ball in front of him. He calls a great game and does a nice job handling pitchers. Every pitcher in the organization that I’ve talked to that has thrown to Perez has raved about his ability behind the dish, and they all love throwing to him. He controls the opposing teams running game with his arm, and loves throwing behind runners if he notices them napping on the basepaths. Defensively, Perez simply has no weaknesses. He’s above-average to plus in every aspect that you can measure with your eyes or the stopwatch. There’s no doubt that Perez has the defensive chops to catch in the major leagues someday, if not right now.

As good as Perez is behind the plate, he still has his struggles at it. Perez posted an OPS of just .675 last year for Kinston, a number built largely on his .365 OBP. He has below average power, a below average hit tool and has shown very few signs that either of those tools will improve dramatically as he advances up the ladder. It’s not all gloom and doom at the dish for Perez though, as he does have a solid approach and knows how to take a walk. In 1049 career minor league plate appearances over 3 seasons, Perez has drawn 167 walks while striking out 218 times. He has a career OBP of .373, despite just a .242 batting average. So while he’ll never be an impact bat, he’s not completely useless at the plate either.

Regardless of his below-average offensive potential, Perez could still be a useful part of a major league roster. He really doesn’t profile as anything more than a backup catcher in the majors, but if he can come off the bench to provide plus defense a couple of days a week, he has a shot to have a long and fruitful major league career. Sal Fasano played 11 seasons in the major leagues with a career OPS of .687. Perez can be that type of guy, providing a steady defensive presence and leadership off the bench, contributing to the team in spite of his bat, not because of it. There have been plenty of players similar to Perez who just never quite made it to the show, but he has a chance to make a career out of being nothing more than a dominant defensive catcher. He should move up to AA Akron this year, and if you have a chance to get out to an Aeros game I would highly recommend taking some time to watch Perez in action behind the plate. You’ll learn a lot about how the position was meant to be played.
Glass Half-Full: Lou Marson, with more defense and less stick
Glass Half-Empty: Remember Wyatt Torregas?

Indians Prospect Countdown: System Overview

Well sports fans, it's that time of year again. The clocks have changed, the sun is shining, spring training is in action, there's only a few snowfalls left for the North Coast; it's prospect countdown time. The Cleveland Indians have an…interesting minor league system right now. Four of the top five players on last year’s list are no longer eligible for the list, as Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall graduated to the majors in 2011 and Drew Pomeranz and Alex White were dealt to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jiminez.

The fifth player in my top 5 last year didn’t throw a single pitch due to injury issues (Jason Knapp). So a system that was considered last year to be extremely deep with a few top guys is now more or less just a deep system. The Indians still have a lot of talent in the pipeline, but there is really only one blue-chip guy. They did the best they could to infuse talent in last June’s MLB draft, signing several players to overslot deals including 2^nd round pick Dillon Howard, but there’s only so much a team can do in one draft.

The one thing that really stands out is just how far from the majors most of these guys are. AAA Columbus has a number of quality bullpen arms and a couple of starters that could pitch in the majors in 2012, but most of the talented position players are years away. That means that while Low-A Lake County will be a fun team to watch this year, the cavalry is not on the horizon should something happen at the big league level.

One of the strengths of the system last year than was maintained through to 2012 is the abundance of quality bullpen arms that have the talent to pitch in the major leagues. C.C. Lee, Nick Hagadone, Rob Bryson, Tyler Sturdevant, Bryce Stowell…all of these guys have the potential to be impact arms in the back end of a major league bullpen. As a note, relief pitchers Zach Putnam, Josh Judy, Cory Burns and Adam Miller would have all been on this list if they were still in the organization, with Putnam ranking in the top-15. Even after dealing some of their bullpen depth, the Indians have a plethora of arms to plug into the major league bullpen should the need arise.

Another strength of the system is young, toolsy infielders. Francisco Lindor, Tony Wolters, Ronny Rodrigues, Robel Garcia, Dorssys Paulino, Jorge Martinez…all of these guys are young, raw and oozing with talent. The highest level any of them will play at in 2012 is likely high-A, with some not even getting out of the complex leagues. None of them played a single inning of college baseball. So while these kids are all quite a ways away from contributing at the big league level, it doesn’t take away from the impressive collection of infield talent the Indians have been able to stockpile between the draft and international free agency over the past couple of years.

This is going to be a really, really fun year to follow the Cleveland minor league system. Even with a relative lack of elite, top level talent, there are a lot of guys who are solid breakout candidates. As always, I highly recommend getting out to as many games as you can, because the raw athleticism of these kids is simply not going to show up in the box scores. Francisco Lindor ranging up the middle and throwing a strike on the run to nail a runner by half a step isn’t a category on Baseball-Reference.com. There are so many young, exciting, athletic kids in the system, especially in nearby Lake County, that you really have to get out and see them. There’s a chance that this system could still be in the 20’s overall next year, but there’s also a really good chance that a few of these guys make the leap to become well-regarded prospects and the system breaks out to be back in the top half of baseball.

Because of the young and unproven nature of the talent in the Indians system, it was extremely difficult to rank. I considered about 65 players for my top 51 countdown, and even when I was finally able to settle on the 51, I moved them around quite a bit throughout the process. I’ll be seeing several of these guys for the first time when I head down to Goodyear next week for my annual Spring Training trip, which is something I’m (obviously) really looking forward to. I had a lot of fun putting together this list, and I really hope you enjoy reading it. And yes, you read that right; we’re counting down 51 prospects here at The DiaTribe, not just 50. Much like Kevin Goldstein and his top-11 and top-101 lists, I’m going the extra mile to provide you with the best coverage that your money can buy.

Before we kick of the countdown though, let’s take a look at some of the “bests” throughout the system:
Best Defensive Catcher: Roberto Perez
Best Defensive Infielder: Francisco Lindor
Best Defensive Outfielder: Tyler Holt
Best Outfield Arm: Carlos Moncrief
Best Power: Jesus Aguilar
Best Hit Tool: Francisco Lindor
Best Speed: Luigi Rodriguez
Most Intriguing Prospect: Dorssys Paulino
Deepest Position: Bullpen arms
Shallowest Position: Corner infielders

2011 Top 50:
1.Jason Kipns
2.Lonnie Chisenhall
3.Drew Pomeranz
4.Jason Knapp
5.Alex White
6.LeVon Washington
7.Nick Weglarz
8.Chun Chen
9.Joe Gardner
10.Cord Phelps
11.Bryce Stowell
12.Rob Bryson
13.Zach Putnam
14.Tony Wolters
15.Hector Rondon
16.Alex Lavisky
17.Kelvin De La Cruz
18.Nick Hagadone
19.Scott Barnes
20.C.C. Lee
21.Austin Adams
22.Kyle Blair
23.T.J. House
24.Vinnie Pestano
25.Tyler Holt
26.Josh Judy
27.Jordan Henry
28.Bryan Price
29.Cory Burns
30.Matt Packer
31.Jared Goedert
32.Cory Kluber
33.Abner Abreu
34.Gio Urshela
35.Gio Soto
36.Felix Sterling
37.Jess Todd
38.Kyle Bellows
39.Juan Romero
40.Clayton Cook
41.Bo Greenwell
42.Alexander Perez
43.T.J McFarland
44.Jeremie Tice
45.Cole Cook
46.Preston Gulimet
47.Chris Jones
48.Zach McAllister
49.Matt McBride
50.Roberto Perez
So check back tomorrow for prospects 51-45, and every day for the next 10 days as we countdown to number one.

A Lazy Sunday with the Head and the Heart

Clocks have sprung forward, 60 degree days are upon us (albeit briefly), and the Madness of March is at our doorstep. What that means in baseball terms is that Opening Day is not far away and as Spring Training continues in Goodyear for the Indians, our insatiable appetite for images, descriptions and box scores are at the “fever pitch” state. Despite this, while the anticipation is building for the 2012 season, it is tempered this early in Spring Training by the knowledge that nothing of note is really happening under the Arizona sun, even if the constant barrage of “information” from Goodyear has you thinking otherwise.

By that I mean that stories and scores and stats come flying at us all day long from Goodyear, but generally those stories revolve around “Player X looking for a turnaround” or “Player Y is looking to build momentum from last year” or “Player Z looking for an opportunity”. In all of these stories (and this is no slight on the reporters in Goodyear as…well, this is what Spring Training is every year), there is hope and warm fuzzies and “ifs” and “maybes” that rule the day. The reason for this is that everybody knows that very little of what happens in Spring Training affects regular season performance and nobody knows at this point what the regular season will bring…even the most astute observer.

That doesn’t make us feel any less warm or any less hopeful when we read these stories about how “Ubaldo is looking for a turnaround” (and you could plug Choo, Brantley, and Lowe into that first group) or “Kotchman is looking to build momentum from last year” (include Hannahan, Santana, Kipnis, Cabrera, Pestano, etc. in this group) or “Duncan is looking for an opportunity” (put Donald, the bevy of 5th starter candidates, and any other young player in here) because they’re necessary to thaw us out from a long winter. It’s just that their hopeful tones and the intimation that everything’s going to break right for every player in camp needs to be accompanied by some perspective or the occasional grain of salt. While our heart hopes for all of these things to break just right for all of these players in Goodyear, our head tells us that…well, that’s just not how baseball works. With that said, let’s get loose on a Lazy One, attempting to provide some perspective on one of those aforementioned story lines that pit the heart against the head, and the one that figures to play out all Spring and perhaps in June…

That story line pertains to one D. Shelley Duncan and his ascension into the conversation as an everyday LF in light of the Sizemore injury, with his “case” being strengthened by a solid start to Spring Training. You could argue that too much e-ink has been spilled on Duncan this Spring, just since the team arrived in Goodyear, but the Grady injury and the uncertain timeframe for his return has put Duncan front and center in most discussions involving the Indians as, while most of the camp “battles” involve ancillary parts of the roster, Duncan’s role could be greatly increased in Sizemore’s absence. And it seems that some people are just fine with that, as after a recent power output, Jordan Bastian tweeted, “Just give the guy the dang job” in regards to Duncan and LF. While I know that Bastian is dealing in a 140-character world and it sounds more like something you’d say to the guy next to you at the barstool after such an event instead of ACTUALLY thinking that Bastian’s in the press box during the first couple of games in Spring Training, throwing up his hands, proclaiming that “IT’S OVER…DUNCAN WINS THE LF JOB” with every well-struck Duncan ball, it struck me in the way that the idea that Duncan’s viability as the everyday LF – for what could be a significant part of the season – is what is starting to gain some steam here.
And, fair or not, that doesn’t sit well with me…

It didn’t sit well with me when I saw Bastian’s tweet, as it began a little tête-à-tête between yours truly and Bastian (even inspiring a synopsis piece of said tête-à-tête from Jon Steiner, who inserted his own thoughts) about the viability of Shelley Duncan as the everyday LF to start the season. Bastian expanded on his feelings a bit a short time later and that piece (which makes the case for Duncan) should be read in full. It is true that Duncan rising from the ashes of an NRI last year to possibly be the everyday LF is a great story (there are those tugs on the heartstrings), and far be it from me to be the wet blanket on this, but this coronation of Duncan as THE LF (in early March) in light of the absence of Grady is premature at best and short-sighted at worst.

Don’t confuse this as a screed against Shelley Duncan as a player or even as the best option that’s in camp right now, because he probably is. Maybe that sounds like a complete contradiction to what I just wrote, but the question becomes what the Indians are going to do in Grady’s absence (however long that might be) and Duncan looks like a large part of the answer. Sure, maybe Aaron Cunningham or one of the NRI’s (Spilborghs, Pie, Lewis) impress enough this Spring to catapult Duncan, but unless the Indians make a move (and, remember, I think that they should…and don’t take that to mean NOW as camps still need to shake out and if they’re going to add someone, it’s coming much later), Duncan seems to figure pretty prominently in the Indians’ LF plans.

But based on what?
Has he started out strongly in Goodyear?
Absolutely, and that’s great. But let’s remember what can be taken from Spring Training stats…which is not much, with Andrew Clayman putting the hard numbers together in an entertaining and insightful piece, as we all fondly remember Springs put forth by Travis Buck and Jason Dubois, then recalling how those Springs translated into Summers.

Which brings us all back to Shelley’s hot start in Goodyear and how a solid start and a great September (along with the Grady injury) have catapulted him into actual conversations about how the Indians should just “give the guy the dang job”. All of which brings me back to something that I wrote before Christmas on the Indians’ need for a fall-back plan for if (when) Grady or another OF went down in 2012.
It goes a little something like this:
Let’s not forget what Shelley Duncan’s career line was from the start of his career in 2007 through September 2, 2011:
.234 BA / .308 OBP / .413 SLG / .721 OPS with 23 HR and 24 2B in 582 PA

Of course, we all know that Duncan went on a tear in those last 3 weeks of the season, posting a .981 OPS in his final 87 PA in 24 games, stroking 7 HR in those 24 games. But which player do you think is closer to the real Shelley Duncan…the one that posted a .721 OPS in 205 games to start his career or the one that posted a .981 OPS in his last 24 games of 2011?

Truthfully, Duncan’s career line up to that little hot streak in September isn’t all that dissimilar to what Matt LaPorta did in 2011 (.247 BA / .299 OBP / .412 OBP / .711 OPS), with LaPorta being a full 5 years younger than Duncan and people (present company included) can’t wait to move on from MaTola at 1B, so the idea that Duncan represents something on par with what was/is available on the FA market or via trade makes sense how?

Don’t take this to mean that Duncan is without value as he’s a RH bat that can be used (and here’s the key word) sporadically as a pinch-hitter or occasional starter against a tough LH starting pitcher. A role that is larger for him is akin to simply going back to the idea that LaPorta will become a player that he has not shown to be.

Is this to say that LaPorta is part of the answer for the Indians at 1B in 2012?
Absolutely not, as he’s destined for Columbus…and with good reason. Rather, it’s an attempt at providing some perspective on counting on Shelley Duncan to be any kind of platoon-mate or deserving of more than an occasional start or a stint as a PH for this 2012 team. Essentially, it’s a way to point out that if Duncan is part of a Plan A at 1B or Plan B in the OF if (when) Grady gets hurt…yeah, that’s bad planning on the part of the Indians as a fundamental failure to upgrade from even Shelley Duncan.

That “fundamental failure to upgrade from even Shelley Duncan” transpired before our very eyes (although the Indians’ pursuit of Willingham, then Beltran AFTER Grady was signed is telling in terms of conveying that they knew that they needed to upgrade) and maybe that’s why this movement is building steam that Duncan should be handed LF for a while to see what he can do. Again, what is that based on?

Maybe this movement is gaining steam because of Shelley’s likability as he’s easy to root for as he emotes a certain level of frustration/enjoyment that we’d like to see more out of professional athletes. Whether he’s coming out of the dugout like a mad man to protect his teammates, expressing surprise after making spectacular catches or even signing autographs for young Red Sox fans that read, “RED SOX SUCK!, Shelley Duncan”, Duncan is an easy guy to get behind and to wish good things for. But just because he snaps a bat over his knee after striking out instead of looking beaten down and confused the way that Matt LaPorta does after whiffing doesn’t change the fact that both players struck out.

Perhaps there is something to this idea that Duncan just needs regular playing time to thrive, and there have been many to point out how well Duncan performed over the course of the final month in 2011, once he was given regular playing time, let’s remember how small of a sample size that really is and how the player that NOBODY wants to see in Cleveland this year actually started out the year on a pace that was somewhat on par with what Duncan did in September:
LaPorta’s start – first 25 games of 2011
.274 BA / .351 OBP / .512 SLG / .862 OPS with 6 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR in 97 PA

Duncan’s finish – final 24 games of 2011
.273 BA / .345 OBP / .636 SLG / .981 OPS with 7 2B, 7 HR in 87 PA

Let me be clear on this – PLEASE don’t take this as an intimation that the Indians should just go with Matt LaPorta because he can show promise over the course of a month as well, but let’s remember that LaPorta is 26 when he’s doing that while Duncan is 31 and LaPorta’s doing that in April and May against what could be considered better competition than that which Duncan faced in September. Maybe that means nothing in terms of competition and maybe Duncan’s power potential was just starting to show itself in September of 2011, but there are a number of players who thrive over the course of a month or half of a season, who never replicate that success.

Without boring you with another trip down “Karim Garcia Lane” (that was done in November), let’s remember that Kelly Shoppach was one of the best hitters in the AL in the 2nd half of 2008 (better than A-Rod and Miggy that year post-All-Star Break), and ended the year with an .865 OPS as a 28-year-old. In case you lost track of Kelly, he’s posted a .625 OPS since leaving Cleveland and has yet to replicate the success that he enjoyed for those few magical months in 2008. Maybe that’s unfair to Duncan as it needs to be noted that the other player that surprisingly thrived in the 2nd half of the 2008 season was Choo, who took full advantage of his regular playing time to post terrific seasons from that point through the 2010 season.

Maybe you want to argue that this has the look of an opportunity that can be seized by a player that has largely been a career minor-leaguer/role player to this point, the way that Casey Blake took advantage of opportunity in 2003 and similar to how Jack Hannahan made the most of his situation last year. That may be true and Duncan could certainly come out gangbusters in 2012 as the starting LF, but let’s remember that the Tribe team that Blake was trying to break into had won 78 games in 2002 and would lose 94 games in Blake’s 1st year as an Indian. Similarly, Hannahan was entering a situation where the Indians had just lost 97 games in 2009 and 93 games in 2010 as they were unquestionably still attempting to build a core for the team. Compare those situations to the one facing the Tribe in 2012, with the Ubaldo trade signaling the “window” of opportunity, when the Indians need to maximize every chance they have to take advantage of the assembled talent that they have before players have the option of leaving via FA.

This isn’t meant to be a total downer on a Sunday morning, but context is needed here as the fact that Duncan looks like the best option feels like more of an indictment of the group as a whole more than it feels like an endorsement of Duncan in particular as an erstwhile LF. Reading what Acta has said about Duncan, you get the sense that the Indians feel the same way:
“We already know what we’ve got in Shelley…We’re going to see all the other guys that we don’t know and at the end of camp we’ll decide whether he’s going to be the guy, or somebody else. But we dont need to be running him out there every day just to try to win that job. We’ve seen him. We need to see the other guys and find out.”

That…um, that’s not a ringing endorsement for Duncan and you would think that if the Indians were satisfied with Duncan as an option without Grady in the picture, they wouldn’t have gone after Willingham or Beltran AFTER Grady was signed and Manny Acta wouldn’t be saying things like this.

That all said, I’ll be the first to admit that Duncan looks like the best option at this point in camp (though some of that is because I’ve never seen Cunningham or Spilborghs or any of the other guys play on a regular basis), but I’ll go back to this idea that it isn’t as if the Indians need to find a different LF RIGHT NOW applicable as camps are going to be continuing for the better part of another month and “logjams” in other camps may not be apparent yet. Admittedly, a lot of this goes back to when Grady is legitimately expected to return (and that doesn’t seem all that clear yet), as if Sizemore is expected to come back (and keep your “scheduled setbacks” comment to yourself) in mid-May or June, then a month or so of Shelley Duncan/Aaron Cunningham becomes a little more palatable. But if Sizemore’s going to be out for a while, they need to start looking to add something that inspires more confidence as an everyday player than Shelley Duncan.

In my heart, I want Shelley Duncan to have the chance that’s eluded him to this stage of his baseball career…but my head tells me otherwise as a month of excellence to end last year and a hot start in Goodyear shouldn’t change a body of work that provides a much more comprehensive picture of Duncan. Given the Indians’ comments (Acta saying that they know what they have in Duncan…while not giving him the job) and their actions (loading up on OF all off-season and continuing to scan the external options), it would seem that they’re pretty aware of this reality as well.

Looking for Plan B on A Lazy Sunday

While the North Coast collectively wonders if the future “Face of the Franchise” for another one of their organizations is worth the cost to go up and get him in the NFL Draft, the past week has been noteworthy on The Reservation as the man once considered the “Face of the Franchise” (present and future tense) found his way to a doctor’s operating table…again. While the Grady injury has allowed every local comedian – who works in 140 characters or less – to take their shots at the organization, at Grady, and at whatever cloud hangs over Cleveland in terms of players that we assume to thrive in Cleveland, it’s time to look at something that is very real – life without Grady.

It could be argued that this reality (life without Grady) is something that the Indians should have come to grips with and planned for in August of last year, but the news that Sizemore will be 8-12 weeks due to the back surgery puts it right in that gray area of what to do now. There’s plenty of time to get to all of that, so let’s get it rolling on a Lazy Sunday…

Starting off, and before getting too in-depth into all of this, there’s a great piece from Pete Gammons at MLB.com on the nature of the way that Grady plays (or are we now saying “played”) the game and draws the comparisons to Darin Erstad and other players whose style of play contributed to their early demise. While saying “demise” has a sense of finality to it, seeing that Grady had a back injury that numbed parts of his leg, simply by bending down for a grounder in practice certainly portends the idea that Sizemore’s body is breaking down on him.

Regardless of whether that is true or not, what’s being reported is that Sizemore is out for 8-12 weeks while he recovers from back surgery, with his knee rehab (which apparently is still going on) continuing within that time period. The announcement came around March 1st, meaning that Sizemore figures to miss a significant amount of the regular season. How much of the regular season is up for debate as 8 weeks from March 1st is May 1st and 12 weeks from March 1st is June 1st. Despite that, the PD at the apron of my driveway (thanks for making getting the paper even more pleasant, new delivery guy) trumpeted that Sizemore would be out until July…and perhaps mid-July. Perhaps that’s a more reasonable return date, given what we’ve seen from Sizemore in the recent past, but that is a solid 16 to 18 weeks out, not the 8 to 12 week timeframe that was reported.

Maybe that’s just all semantics and calendar counting because we don’t want to think about how Grady’s going to perform when (if) he returns, but let’s get into the nuts and bolts of the injury (for a while) before moving on. On the specific injury – as it’s been reported – Grady had a “microdiscectomy”, a word that looks like it has an extra “c” in there…but that’s neither here nor there. Being fortunate enough to have a healthy back to this point in my life (knocking firmly and unmistakably on wood), I’m not going to pretend to know what a “microdiscectomy” is, so I’ll give the floor up to Corey Dawkins and Rebecca Glass, who write the regular “Collateral Damage” piece at B-Pro:
Sizemore underwent a microdiscectomy in his lower back and will be out at least eight to 12 weeks. In terms of surgeries for herniated discs, a microdiscectomy is about as minimally invasive as you can get, and has a good track record of full recoveries. It doesn’t guarantee an elimination of the herniation forever, but it can be years before symptoms start to return.

Again, that 8 to 12 week timeframe comes up and this write-up certainly is cause for some optimism. Of course, we don’t know how Grady’s body will react to the surgery or what other of Grady’s body parts is waiting for its turn to go “SPROING”…so maybe there is something to the July/mid-July return date. More relevant about any of these timeframes is to put some real “time missed” numbers on the ledger as even if Sizemore is out for 12 weeks and returns at the beginning of June, he misses the 50 games that will be played in April and May – or about 1/3 of the season.

If you want to say he’ll be out 8 weeks from March 1st and will return May 1st, he misses 21 games…
If he misses the month of June and comes back July 1st, he misses 77 games…
Go to Independence Day, and you’re at the exact mid-point of the season…
This may seem odd to plot out, but the “Half-Full” crowd will trumpet his return as a great July pick-up, except for that…well, the team has to be in a position where they’d be looking to add (and not subtract) for that to even make sense at that point in the season.

By that I mean that you have to remember that the 2006 team (pretty much the same team as the talented 2005 team that would have made the playoffs in the new configuration) was 10 ½ GB by Memorial Day of that year. Yes, two months into the season, they had a 10 ½ game deficit. Of course, it’s true that those April and May struggles meant that the Indians started flipping non-essential pieces (resulting, most famously, in Benuardo becoming Choo and Asdrubal), building some of the core of the team that we see today, but it’s meant to point out that a slow start can bury a team.

Lest you forget, that 2008 team (basically the same roster that was one game away from the WS the previous year) was 8 GB on June 8th of that year and in 2009, with the reigning Cy Young Award winner on the team and after adding Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa in the off-season, the Indians were 8 GB a week earlier by the beginning of June.
I know, I know…The Atomic Wedgie is elsewhere touting “the grind” and “one game at a time”, but the point remains. With so many question marks facing the team, getting off to a slow start could do some damage to this “window” that is supposed to be open/opening for the Indians in terms of contention and the loss of Grady (or the threat of Grady, as we once knew him) could contribute to a slow start, mainly because of the in-house options past Sizemore.

How confident are the Indians in going with the likes of Cunningham or Duncan or Spilborghs for 50 games or 80 games, realizing that their two other OF (Brantley and Choo) are also coming off of injury-plagued seasons, with Brantley’s health being an issue throughout his career?

For the answer on that, let’s go to Antonetti, via Bastian:
“We tried to build in some depth to our roster in some of the alternatives that are already in camp. We feel like we have some quality in-house candidates who will go out and compete for some of that playing time, and our scouts will continue to be out there evaluating other camps to determine if there are potential upgrades from somewhere else.”

Read that again and notice that Antonetti said that those “in-house candidates…will go out and compete for some of that playing time” and while that may be looking too deeply at the choice of wording, realize that Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted on Saturday that, “With Grady Sizemore out (which moves Brantley to CF), Indians are looking around for a left fielder.”

After spending some time earlier in the week (prior to the announcement regarding the extent of the Sizemore injury) wondering how pro-active the Indians would be in looking for external options…well, huzzah for that.

That said, after spending the off-season looking for “external” options in the OF and coming back with Aaron Cunningham and some NRI’s, would the landscape have changed that much for the Indians to now be able to find a trade partner to land the OF that they need for the present AND for the future?

For that, you have to go out and look around those “other camps” that Antonetti referenced and realize that the Indians’ interest is no longer confined to a 4th OF/RH bat type that they may have been earlier when they thought they were looking for a compliment to Sizemore (and Brantley) in the OF, but may now be looking for that player that profiles more as an everyday player. Essentially what the Indians have to look for is a team with a “crowded” OF or a team that may have a veteran who may get pushed out by a prospect this Spring so the Indians could benefit from another teams’ largesse in the OF.

The first two such teams that come to mind on this are Oakland and Toronto. Remember that the Athletics added Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, and Seth Smith…all this off-season, THEN went out and added Yoenis Cespedes and, if the A’s are thinking that Cespedes is going to be playing in Oakland this year, that’s suddenly a crowded OF with Crisp’s 2-year contract saying something about his likelihood to leave the Bay Area. So could the Indians pry Smith or Reddick away?

Since this isn’t the first time that I’ve mentioned Reddick’s name, it is worth mentioning that the A’s parted with their young closer and a Brantley-esque OF in Ryan Sweeney to acquire him, so his cost may be prohibitive, but the A’s do have a sudden need that the Indians may be able to fill. In what was a bad week for baseball players named “Sizemore”, Scott Sizemore was lost for the year last week, so the A’s would be looking for a 3B, with the Indians having the player that was supposed to be their starting 3B going into last year in Jason Donald perhaps being the bait, along with some arms.

Similarly, Toronto has Colby Rasmus in CF, Joey Bats in RF and Eric Thames and Travis Snider battling it out for LF. Would the “loser” of that competition represent a better everyday option for the Tribe?
The 25-year-old Thames posted a .769 OPS (104 OPS+) last year and Travis Snider, a former uber-prospect, posted a .616 OPS (65 OPS+ last year), so whether they represent much better than some odd amalgamation of Duncan/Cunningham/Spilborghs/add a name remains to be seen.

Outside of Oakland and Toronto, the Red Sox have Ellsbury and Crawford (though injured) locked in with Ryan Sweeney, Cody Ross, and Darnell McDonald to shake out in the RF/4th OF mix, which may make Ryan Kalish available. Though most people remember Kalish for his…um, ill-advised “slide” into the leg of The Axe Man, he’s a compelling option, even if he’s included in that Gammons article about players going “hard” with Kalish saying “This is the way I’ve played every sport, I’m not going to change.”

Maybe that’s something that hits a little too close to home in light of Grady’s fall from grace, but Kalish is interesting as I linked this bit from B-Pro’s Kevin Goldstein a few months ago while making the case that the Indians should make a play for Reddick, but Kalish is the other name mentioned here:
Kalish and Reddick have come up together through the Red Sox system and have similar potential as corner outfielders. Kalish is the more athletic of the pair, but Reddick has more power and the stronger arm. As of right now, Reddick is the starting right fielder in Boston, but as one scout put it, "They're both good enough to play every day in the big leagues… just not for the Red Sox." Both could be involved in potential deals that return older, more expensive upgrades.

Are Kalish and Reddick and Seth Smith AND Thames AND Snider all LH?
Sure, but beggars can’t be choosers at this point in terms of handedness and if the Indians are looking for a long-term option, and they should, because Albert Jojuan Belle (great piece of his return to camp here) isn’t walking through that door and there are no compelling bats in the Minors in the OF…well, anywhere.

If you want to continue through other teams’ OF situations, the Cubs have Al Soriano, added David DeJesus and re-signed Reed Johnson this off-season with uber-prospect Brett Jackson waiting in the wings. The North Siders are in rebuild mode (29-year-old Bryan LeHair will be their clean-up hitter this year…you know the Pacific League MVP last year), so one has to wonder what it would take to (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) pry Marlon Byrd out of Wrigleyville, with Theo and the boys picking up the majority of Byrd’s $6.5M salary for 2012 if a decent prospect was sent to the North Side.

This could go on for a while, but the Diamondbacks added Jason Kubel, presumably pushing Gerardo Parra into a 4th OF role and the Phillies seem reticent to give Domonic Brown a chance, seeing as how they’re planning on giving John Mayberry, Jr. the first chance at Raul Ibanez’s spot in RF with the plan (right now) to start Brown in AAA for the season, but it’s all just looking at it from Cleveland’s perspective and not wondering if the Indians would even have what it would take to pry a player like Allen Craig (injury issues considered, even if he fractured his kneecap, which causes shades of Grady) from the Cardinals since they added Carlos Beltran or Chris Heisey (who is in a platoon that…get this, is based on whether the opposing pitcher is a “high-ball” or “low-ball” pitcher) from the Reds.

Kyle Blanks of the Padres…
Tyler Colvin of the Rockies…
David Murphy of the Rangers…

Again, this could go on for a while, making stops in every Spring Training camp, but it certainly looks as if the Indians know that the options for an everyday LF AND for that depth 4th OF are tenuous at best, particularly considering that there are other spots in their lineup that may not be the most offensively intimidating. This was known when last season ended, but the OF was the spot that the Indians could least afford an injury, particularly early on and one has to think that the mess of the 2011 OF, when Kearns, Zeke, and Buck combined for 560 PA (with Crowe and Jered Head combining for 57 PA) that they realize that the “depth” that they’ve built is – while impressive as “depth” – underwhelming if you’re talking about any of those players (Duncan, Cunningham, MaTola, Spilborghs, etc.) as an every day player. Maybe a guy like Russ Canzler surprises and emerges and if this wasn’t the Indians and wasn’t the Indians’ LF situation, I’d say that this would be the perfect opportunity for a player like LaPorta to make the most of a situation but, frankly…I know better than that. Perhaps that’s a little too much of the skeptical Cleveland fan there, but the current group of LF options (and 4th options, considering the injury factors with Brantley and Choo) underwhelm.

Would the Indians even have enough trade bait to make something like this happen?
For whatever reason, they built up an odd and solid amount of middle-infield depth with Jose Lopez and Christian Guzman to go on top of Asdrubal, Kipnis, Donald, and Phelps. Whether the Indians could actually move Donald or Phelps (and don’t take this as a condemnation of either of those players, both of whom I like…because you have to give up something to get something) to add something that resembles an everyday LF?

Probably not on their own, but bullpen depth is something that the Indians could pick from as well, particularly because the arms that they brought in as non-roster invitees (Wheeler, Ray, Accardo, Tejada) are interesting enough that you could see how they might be comfortable to continue to dip into those bullpen arms to sweeten pots in potential trades.

Regardless of this whole infuriating Chris Perez injury – and can anyone remember Soloff being so blunt in his language of an injury, that Perez’s body “was clearly not ready for the intensity of that bullpen session” or why Chris Perez would go 100% on Day 1 because, “that’s not who I am. I get work in at 100 percent. I’m not going to throw a bullpen at 50 percent, miss all my spots and pretty much waste a day” and how he now has 4 to 6 weeks to “waste” – the Indians bullpen is still well-positioned to handle losses to augment the team elsewhere.

That said, it always takes two to tango on the trade market and while it looks like the Indians are attempting to find a “Plan B” in Grady’s absence (the length of which still remains to be seen) in LF. Perhaps they have been attempting to find that “Plan B” all off-season, but when Grady’s back went under the knife, those attempts hopefully found some new momentum.

Grady & The Alternatives

Though the news about Grady’s suddenly balky back broke late last week, the topic is sure to dominate the discussion throughout Spring Training as the Indians’ OF…um, “situation” figures to be a rather fluid one. Quite suddenly, the idea that the bevy of OF “depth” options would be fighting it out for a 4th OF spot and some sporadic playing time this season has been replaced by the reality that one of those “depth” options is likely to be the Opening Day LF, with that title perhaps not being relinquished for some time.

How long that “winner” of the new LF Derby figures to be counted on as an everyday player is the first question in all of this as, while others can moan and wail and gnash over Grady’s re-signing and the idea that the Indians were counting on him to return to the 162-game warrior that he once was (and they weren’t), the more pressing issue at hand is what to do in his absence. The Indians have been down this road before with the OF options being affected by Grady’s injuries, but this idea that Sizemore hurt his back bending over for a ground ball in the OF portends all sorts of bad news in terms of any hope for health – of any kind – for Grady this year.

If the Indians think that this back injury is just a delay to the start of Sizemore’s season (and they probably figured they’d get about 100 games out of Grady…and that is still possible, with the games missed this early injury simply representing a portion of the time that they figured he’d be unavailable), then keeping this mish-mash of players in camp involved as Plan A or Plan B to man LF for a while is fine. However, if this back injury is the harbinger for what the season holds for Grady – whose knee rehab has to go on a break while the back heals – then the Indians have to look very hard at the players that are in camp and whether they need to act to bring another body to Goodyear.

Certainly, the idea that they needed to bring another body to Goodyear existed all off-season, but if Grady’s back injury is just the start of a season spent largely rehabbing for him, a new urgency may set in for the Tribe. Perhaps it could be argued that the urgency should have been there all off-season to have a “Plan B” in mind for if/when Grady went down, but the thought that Grady’s body is betraying him and is breaking down is hard to ignore. If that is the case, the question becomes whether this group of players currently in Goodyear (Duncan, Cunningham, Spilborghs, Pie, Lewis, etc.) represents a viable level of production so the Indians could be comfortable with beginning the season with any one of them AND have the confidence that a viable level of production is a long-term possibility.

Adam Van Arsdale over at LGT has a nice round-up of some career stats for the players that figure to benefit from the opportunity afforded by Grady’s balky back, but I think that it’s worth including what some of the projections are for these players in 2012. With that in mind, here are the relevant Bill James projections in terms of LF options (with Grady in there for context), via Fangraphs:
Duncan - .800 OPS, .344 wOBA
Sizemore - .783 OPS, .334 wOBA
LaPorta - .768 OPS, .333 wOBA
Spilborghs - .755 OPS, .330 wOBA
Fred Lewis - .740 OPS, .320 wOBA
Donald - .718 OPS, .318 wOBA
Pie - .713 OPS, .312 wOBA
Brantley - .690 OPS, .309 wOBA
Carrera - .660 OPS, .305 wOBA

Cunningham did not (gulp) merit a Bill James projection, though his ZiPS projection pegs him near the bottom of the list with a .697 OPS, .305 wOBA projection. Donald is included in there despite the fact that I don’t think that he’s seen as much more than a super-utility guy…and yes, it terrifies me that the one player on that list who is guaranteed a starting spot (and is being promised the leadoff position in the lineup) is only prevented from being at the bottom of the list by Zeke. Regardless, as Mike Brantley seems to have a pretty wide berth to prove his skeptics wrong, that list of projected output is pretty depressing. Perhaps Shelley Duncan takes this opportunity and runs with it, but I’m still skeptical of the effect of his September of 2011 and how his strong finish (against watered-down competition) affected his year-end numbers. Truthfully, the inclusion of MaTola at the top of the list could be the most damning indictment of this group of players as 24th and 25th man fodder.

Perhaps a pleasant surprise is in store for the Indians – like a fully healthy Nick Weglarz or Aaron Cunningham making the most of an opportunity – the way that Brennan Boesch emerged for the Tigers (from the middle-bottom of their prospect lists) a few years back. Short of that, while the idea might exist to wait for mid-season to see what might shake loose on the Trade front, that presupposes that the Indians have a solid enough start to merit the “let’s add a piece” discussion in July. And if those are your options from Day 1 (as they exist right now) to start in LF, the question comes blazing back…
What can ACTUALLY be expected of Sizemore in terms of a return and, more importantly games played in 2012?

Most people assumed that Sizemore would be available for about 100 games or so this season, but that those games would be spread out over the course of a season, with Grady getting periodic days off as Brantley would slide to CF and one of the “depth” options would log some time in LF. But what if Sizemore’s back injury is just the beginning?

At this point, we all know that the Indians gambled on Sizemore, given his health and his potential (Castro’s piece outlines this, along with other options that the Indians may have had) and, while it may be unpopular to say, it’s still a gamble that I would have taken as well. While many can point to his voluminous recent injury history, remember that Sizemore had 16 XBH in those first 18 games back last year, with those 16 XBH coming in 84 plate appearances. Yes, he unfortunately (or is it “unsurprisingly”) sustained injuries that affected him from that point forward, but if the Indians could get any part of that dynamic player, that was the upside.

If you’re not impressed by that simple statement of XBH or can’t see the upside to a healthy Sizemore (who WAS healthy when he came back last year), here’s the context – Matt LaPorta had 35 XBH in 396 PA last year and Mike Brantley had had the same amount (35 XBH) in FOUR HUNDRED AND NINETY SIX plate appearances.
Again, Sizemore had 16 XBH in his first 84 PA’s…

Is that to say that Sizemore would have had nearly 100 XBH if he would have sniffed 500 PA last year?
Of course not, but let’s remember this quote on Grady from a scout last April via John Perrotto at B-Pro:
“He’s finally healthy for the first time in two years, and he’s back to being the dynamic player he was before he got hurt. He’s given that a club a lift, no question about it, not just with his production, but from a morale standpoint. They are playing with confidence, and I really think part of that stems from knowing he’s batting leadoff and playing center field.”

Sure…you say, but he wasn’t “finally healthy” and his body broke down just after that was written last year, just like it already has this Spring, meaning that the Indians should have gone in another direction with their gambling cash. If that’s the stance – have at it, but I still fail to see the deal that was made this off-season, or the FA that signed (that the Indians weren’t in on) that represented a more compelling gamble than Grady.

Certainly, it could be argued that they should have done more in terms of insurance policies for the eventual Sizemore injury (and I did make that argument), but if no other options offered themselves in the off-season market, you start to see the real conundrum facing the Indians if there is doubt that Sizemore will be healthy for any portion of the season in terms of still looking to acquire a viable alternative that may not be out there. Maybe the Indians REALLY think that Grady is going to come back and they aren’t just putting on a strong public face about it, figuring that they can handle some amalgamation of Duncan/Cunningham/Spilborghs/Lewis until Grady returns to settle the OF issues.

But the back injury and the recent knee injuries allow for a certain amount of skepticism as the Indians may very well be burning up the phone lines to see what it would take to get Josh Reddick out of Oakland (even if he just got there) or are thinking that the Fauxberto money could be used (if he’s not coming back any time soon and the fact the Oviedo/Nunez is still not cleared throws some doubt into the idea put forth by Hoynes this weekend that “according to sources, the Department of Homeland Security is expected to grant him a waiver to join the Indians”, as that sounds optimistic to me) to absorb some salary on a player like Marlon Byrd or even Carlos Lee.

However, all of this is predicated on what can be expected of Grady – both in terms of health and, obviously, performance – as the spectre of an underperforming LF (and CF, if those projections for Brantley come true) looms over Goodyear. Though it feels like we’ve been wondering “what can be expected of Grady” for too long now (as here’s the obit as an Indian that I wrote about him last July), the Indians need to be honest with themselves from a medical standpoint and from the reality of looking at what can reasonably be expected from the alternatives that stand to “benefit” from Sizemore’s absence.

The 2012 Indians have been full of gambles and “ifs” since the beginning of the off-season and, while the Sizemore injury may have a profound effect on how the Indians handle their lineup/roster construction or if they even STILL look to go out and add the piece that didn’t seem to be there/eluded them this off-season, keep this in mind…we haven’t even seen a Spring Training game yet.

Spring Cleaning on A Lazy Sunday

Workouts have just commenced in Goodyear under the high Arizona sky and Grady Sizemore is already hurt (cue the Late Night Talk Show band to prepare for the inevitable one-liners here, if you can hear them over the cavalcade of “I told you so’s”) as the Indians prepare themselves for a 2012 season that could go so many different directions that it almost makes one’s head spin.
Can this player do that…
Can that player stay healthy…
Which version of this player can we count on seeing this year…

The questions are numerous and the answers (right now) are few – other than this whole Grady thing, which pushes Brantley to CF to start the season and opens the door wide for Aaron Cunningham or Shelley Duncan or Ryan Spilborghs or even Fred Lewis to take advantage of an opportunity. While we don’t know how long Sizemore figures to be out because of this “back issue”, it is being reported that he’ll be out at least on Opening Day and, if you Opening Day is still a solid 6 weeks away and they’ve ALREADY ruled him out for that, this may be a while. If you figure that rehab is going to be needed after he is healthy enough to play along with the idea that Sizemore hasn’t really been healthy in…hell, I’ve forgotten how long, this is not a good first step for an Indians’ team that needed to make it through camp healthy as a starting point.

Regardless, since there’s plenty of time to ruminate on the Sizemore situation (Spring Training is going to be a while, even if Castro nails the whole risk/reward thing here and why I still think the Grady gamble was worth taking while I remind you that Tyler wrote a few months ago about Mike Brantley – erstwhile CF, something even more relevant than when it was written, given the Grady news), let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday, examining what can be gleaned from Spring Training, both in terms of performances and revelations.
And, we’re off…

Heading into camp, the goals of the Indians’ Spring Training are fairly obvious – continued and continuous health (particularly among those who have had recent…um, issues staying healthy) and getting key players prepared for the 2012 season. While that first “goal” has already taken a major hit with Grady’s injury which will sideline him for an indefinite amount of time and could have an impact on his performance when (or is it…gulp, if) he returns, the second “goal” is perhaps the more important one as the Indians have a number of players that either need to bounce back from lackluster 2011 seasons or are young players that need to keep the momentum of their 2011 seasons moving them in the right direction.

Truthfully, that second “goal” of getting key players prepared for the 2012 season may seem pedestrian to even mention, but getting – most notably – Ubaldo Jimenez and SS Choo (the two most important players this season in terms of having a track record and a potential impact for 2012) back on track to the type of production that each enjoyed before their nightmare 2011 seasons is essential to any idea that the Indians can contend in 2012. Obviously, monitoring the health of particular players is easy enough via reports from Goodyear, but in terms of that second “goal”, gleaning much from Spring Training performance is much more difficult…particularly when it comes to pitching.
Because simply looking at Spring Training numbers (and for pitchers in particular) doesn’t mean anything most of the time…

That isn’t said to burst any bubbles, but as much as Spring Training represents a welcome change from “nothing” to “something” in the baseball world, there’s really not much that can be truly learned from the numbers or even from the daily reports coming from Goodyear, even if you just go the recent past with the Indians in terms of translating Spring Training success/failure to project regular season performance.

Consider the fact that Cliff Lee had a 5.68 ERA in Spring Training prior to the 2008 season, giving up 27 hits and walking 5 in his 19 Spring innings, while striking out 16 hitters and posting a 1.68 WHIP. Remember, this was after the 2007 season in which CP Lee was not on the Tribe’s post-season roster as trade rumors swirled during that 2008 Spring Training about whether Lee would be the 5th starter to open the 2008 season or if he would perhaps be traded because he no longer had options remaining. Coming out of Spring Training, Lee’s 1st start was even delayed by a game so CC could pitch on his normal days rest as Lee unquestionably started that 2008 season as the 5th starter.
Lest you forget, Cliff Lee won the Cy Young Award that year…

That’s the exception…obviously, as nobody is expecting one of the arms fighting for the 5th spot this year to run away with the Cy Young in the way that CP Lee improbably did back then, but even more than the example of Lee’s Spring Training numbers meaning NOTHING once the regular season started, let’s remember how loose the grip can be on any of these spots out of Spring Training, once injuries and attrition show up. To wit, Scott Lewis was the 4th starter to start the 2009 season (after the Indians spent the off-season adding Wood and DeRosa) with Anthony Reyes as the 5th starter out of the gate. Those two pitchers COMBINED for 9 starts (8 of them by Reyes) and 42 2/3 innings that year…or about 3% of the innings thrown by the 2009 pitching staff.
Again, those were the pitchers that “won” the 4th and 5th starters spots out of Spring Training…

How does that mean anything for this year and this Spring Training?
Well, it’s not really meant to point out much more than that there are a bunch of guys going for the 5th starter spot and a TON of guys going for the last two bullpen spots and while these pitching staff “battles” are compelling at some level, most if not all of these guys are probably going to get a shot and whoever gets it first doesn’t really matter that much to me. How each of them performs in Arizona is obviously going to play a role in who breaks camp with the team, but it probably means very little in terms of projecting performance once the regular season starts. We will read stories (that are admittedly fun to read, in that they foster hope) about guys like Huff and his mechanics or how Ubaldo is ready to go after a “normal” off-season, but the proof is going to be in the pudding once those players make their way North for Opening Day. Regardless of what is done in or what is reported from Arizona, between Slowey, Gomez, Huff, and McAllister – most or all of those guys are going to see time in Cleveland this year as each retains options and each has upsides and downsides.

Keeping with the starting staff, things are going to change throughout Spring Training and beyond and, just to use Jeanmar (probably one of the presumed favorites, with Slowey) as an example, according to Bastian, Gomez spent the off-season resting his right knee which “gave him some trouble throughout last season” and, unless I missed it, no procedure was done to remedy that “trouble”. That’s not meant to assert that Gomez is sure to end up on the DL at some point in 2012, just that the odds are that one or two or (gasp) three of these guys is going to go down because of injury or will fall further down the pecking order just based on attrition.

Does that mean that we should all just ignore Spring Training games and results?
Of course not, as Spring Training is that glorious time when everything seems possible and hope builds upon hope. But if you’re even just talking about these arms that are slotting themselves for the first (and second…and third) shot at the 5th starter spot, I’m actually more interested in whether Scott Barnes and/or Austin Adams can make some progress in becoming more than that 5th starter/swing man fodder that the previous group seems to represent. Maybe that is simply preferring the devil I don’t know to the one that I think I do, but whoever “wins” the 5th starter spot will be on a tight leash while the other guys sort themselves out in Columbus.

Short of an injury or a sudden resolution to the Carmona/Hernandez situation (and I’m having trouble seeing that for a while, regardless of what Carmona/Hernandez and his agent may think), that last spot in the rotation could be in flux for a while. Realistically, that 4th spot could be in play as well if Josh Tomlin is not able to remedy the issues that plagued him in the second half of 2011 as he retains options, just like the pitchers that figure to be sitting in Columbus, waiting for a shot at the rotation.
As a quick aside here, one has to wonder if the money that would have been owed to Carmona/Hernandez is going to go towards a OF in light of this Grady situation. Suddenly, Marlon Byrd isn't looking so bad…

Regardless, this logic applies to the final couple of spots in the bullpen, as who comes North with the team is much less interesting to me than which players are going to have the unexpected impact that a player like Vinnie Pestano did in 2011. In a way, knowing who the 5th starter is on the Opening Day roster or who the last two guys at the front of the bullpen are fun to follow in an odd sort of way, but I’m more interested in how the Indians are going to make the talent on hand work throughout the course of the season.

This is all fairly rudimentary, but which arm will be in the Indians’ rotation in mid-July or who which reliever will surprise and climb that back-end-of-the-bullpen ladder, perhaps displacing an injured or ineffective arm that always finds his way out of the bullpen once the season gets underway, are the real “questions” that need “answers”.
Sadly, those answers aren’t going to be completely fleshed out in Arizona, as much as we’d like them to, though we will start to get a taste…

That’s not to say that Cactus League action is completely useless and isn’t meant to douse your well-deserved enthusiasm about baseball being played after a long and uneventful winter. It’s just a reminder that as much as people will pore over the numbers for a start by Kevin Slowey or an appearance by Dan Wheeler or Nick Hagadone, those final spots on the roster are tenuous at best and figure to be used throughout the season to include most, if not all, of the “competitors” in these Spring Training “battles”.

That all being said (and as you consider canceling your trip to Goodyear…although you shouldn’t), there are events that happen in Spring Training that provide a peek into what a team is going to do in the usage of talent that makes much more of an impact than how the 22nd through 25th spots on the roster get filled. Certainly, one of those “peeks” is going to come as the Indians start to mete out playing time in LF in the absence of Sizemore, but one of those moments occurred earlier in the week as Manny Acta tipped his hand (rather surprisingly) on how the Indians see the usage pattern for Carlos Santana this year in a convoluted platoon now that Kotchman is in the fold, with the explanation coming via Bastian:
“You do have a first baseman now,” Acta said. “What it does is -- probably this year more times than in the past -- we’re going to have to take a chance and probably DH Santana, and take the chance that, if [backup catcher Lou Marson] goes down during the game, that we lose the DH.”
The situation is such that the Indians want to keep Santana’s bat in the lineup as much as possible. That means that, on days he is not catching, the switch-hitter could either work as a first baseman or a DH. It is most likely that those starts would come against left-handed pitching.

If you’re following here, Acta (rightfully) doesn’t care about the possibility of losing the DH as he would have Santana slotting to DH against LHP, with Hafner sitting on the bench vs. LHP as Marson would assume the C duties in those situations. Truthfully, I think that defense plays more of a role here than you might think at first glance as Santana is probably not going to spend too much time at 1B this year (thankfully) and as Marson figures to spend more time behind the plate…which is interesting to consider when you figure that Keith Woolner (a former B-Pro writer who now works for the Indians) wrote this seminal work on the effect of catchers/game-calling over a decade ago.


But I digress…lest you forget, this “loss” of the DH was one of the main concerns that came up in response to something that I wrote in this space a few months back, proposing this exact scenario. Pardon the massive cut-and-paste, but in it, I wrote:
Starting off, this makes loads of sense from the Marson vs. LHP perspective as Marson has a .763 career OPS vs. LHP and a .529 career OPS vs. RHP. In fact, Marson’s .793 OPS vs. LHP in 2011 ranked him 3rd on the Tribe against LHP among players with more than 90 AB against LHP (Santana and Hannahan were higher)…
--snip--
Truthfully, that’s the way I would handle the Marson/Santana “platoon”, by using this alignment for that duo and Hafner, dependent upon the starting pitcher:
Vs. LHP
C – Marson
DH – Santana

Vs. RHP
C – Santana
DH– Hafner

Is it ideal to have a $13M a year platoon player in Hafner?
Of course not, but as disparate as Marson’s splits have been the last couple of years, check these…
Hafner Splits 2011
.886 OPS vs. RHP
.638 OPS vs. LHP

Hafner Splits 2010
.863 OPS vs. RHP
.706 OPS vs. LHP

Hafner Splits 2009
.866 OPS vs. RHP
.696 OPS vs. LHP

If you’re saying that those numbers aren’t THAT bad against LHP, consider that Hafner has 22 XBH in his last 309 PA against LHP and has 5 HR against LHP in his last 219 PA…seriously. That’s not to say that Hafner would become a largely “part-time” player as it is worth mentioning that the average number of AB per team in MLB vs. LHP was 1,470 while the average number of AB per team in MLB vs. RHP was 4,053. So if each team has about 5,500 AB to give out per season, only about ¼ of those AB come against LHP, so Hafner would be more of a ¾-type player which, given the chance that there are only so many swings in Hafner’s shoulder every year, sounds just about right.

However, the idea behind not having to use Santana at 1B in that piece was predicated on the idea that the Indians would add an “everyday” 1B. In theory (and maybe in their public comments), they have with Kotchman…but remember Kotchman has historically struggled against LHP (.245 BA / .305 OBP / .305 OBP / .610 OPS in his last 367 AB vs. LHP), so this idea that he should be playing everyday – including against any and all LHP – looks like wishful thinking. Perhaps that’s because of a lack of an obvious compelling alternative, but in looking a little deeper, maybe an option to take those ¼ of the PA at 1B (against LHP) referenced above does exist on the current roster.

By that I mean, go back though to the top of that part in italics above where Marson’s success in 2011 vs. LHP makes him a compelling alternative for Hafner in the lineup and see that the only two players that had more success against LHP for the Tribe in 2011 (with at least 90 PA) were Santana (who should play every day, naturally) and one John Joseph Hannahan IV.

Yep, Hannahan…and here’s an interesting off-shoot to the most compelling of the Spring Training “battles” as it relates to the only real intrigue down in Goodyear in terms of who the 3B figures to be and whether Hannahan’s glove at 3B outweighs Chisenhall’s promise and his bat. Given that the Indians should be looking to bring the best team North with them (given this whole “window” thing), wouldn’t it stand to reason that the Indians could come up with a solution to use Hannahan and Chisenhall effectively, given that Hannahan has some experience at 1B and would actually serve as a decent platoon partner for Kotchman at 1B because of Kotchman’s…um, struggles against LHP?

As much as everyone wants the definitive answer to “WHO’S THE OPENING DAY 3B”, does it need to be that black-and-white, given Hannahan’s versatility and due to Kotchman’s shortcomings?

That is to say, perhaps the alignment should be Chisenhall playing in the majority of the games at 3B with Hannahan bouncing back and forth between 3B and 1B, based on the pitcher (he’d play 3rd when Masterson or Lowe pitched) and the opposing pitcher (he’d play 1B when Kotchman needed a rest against LHP) with Chisenhall perhaps slotting into some plate appearances at DH, as the Indians attempt to keep Hafner as healthy and fresh as possible throughout the season.

Certainly this is all predicated on Chisenhall having a solid Spring Training, but how the Indians work this could be pretty flexible. In terms of who plays 3B when, maybe there’s a place online that shows where batted balls go for these pitchers that I can’t find (although I imagine the Indians do and during my search, I did find this for Masterson, which is amazing) that would lend a clue as to which pitcher would benefit most from Hannahan’s glovework at 3B, but everyday AB may not have to be as “this” or “that” when it comes to Chisenhall and Hannahan at 3B.

While the argument may be that using Chisenhall in any kind of “platoon” situation doesn’t do his development any great favors, perhaps everyday AB would be there for him, particularly in the light that the Indians are going to want to keep Hafner as rested as possible in the interest of maximizing his usefulness. And that’s really what this all boils down to – maximizing the talents of an imperfect group of players to put them in the best positions possible to succeed. These numbers are overly simplistic, but why couldn’t the Indians figure out usage patterns that looked like this:
C
Santana – 120 (vs. RHP)
Marson – 40 (vs. LHP)

1B
Kotchman – 120 (vs. RHP)
Hannahan – 40 (vs. LHP)

3B
Chisenhall – 120 (based on CLE pitcher)
Hannahan – 40 (based on CLE pitcher)

DH
Hafner – 100 (against RHP only, with other days off)
Santana – 30 (filling in around that)
Chisenhall – 30 (filling in around that)

Breakdown
Santana – 150
Chisenhall – 150
Kotchman – 120
Hafner – 100
Hannahan – 80
Marson – 40

Yes…the numbers wouldn’t be that “clean” on any given position (particularly DH), but you get the main idea here, which is to maximize the effectiveness of these players – keep Hafner healthy and as effective as he can be, allow Santana and Chisenhall to remain in the lineup as much as possible to continue their development while allowing their defensive-oriented back-ups to shine when asked to, prevent Kotchman and Hafner from playing against LHP, prevent Marson from playing against RHP, put the best defensive IF in there when the GB pitchers are going, etc.

Essentially, this is cobbling together a lineup as the 1995 team, this is not…when Mike Hargrove had a laminated lineup card that he took out to the ump before the game and sat back and watched the ball fly out of the park. But this is may present the best option for the Indians and while “Lonnie Baseball” and “Supermanahan” have their pros and cons (as Bastian pointed out), using their strengths to complement each other is how the Indians are going to maximize not only their offensive potency, but their defensive prowess as well.

Maybe you’ve seen the Bill James projections that put the 2012 projected numbers for each player on equal footing at Fangraphs:
Chiz – Bill James 2012 Projections
.248 BA / .302 OBP / .400 SLG / .702 OPS, .305 wOBA

Hannahan – Bill James 2012 Projections
.244 BA / .335 OBP / .360 SLG / .695 OPS, .311 wOBA

Frankly, if that’s what is really expected of the two of them, you go with Hannahan and ship Lonnie off to Columbus and don’t think twice about it, but I think those projections sell Lonnie’s offensive potential short. As does Jonah Keri, who wrote in a well-balanced season preview of the Tribe at Grantland, that “Chisenhall struggled in his rookie season, posting a .284 on-base percentage; he’s got the skills to do a lot better.”

You’d have to think that the Indians feel the same way if Acta is telling Fangraphs that Lonnie is “going to probably be the most important piece of the puzzle in our infield” (and that link is an interesting Q&A with The Chiz) and, given that the Indians are going to be looking to get out to that fast start, sending Lonnie down to Columbus so he can play everyday seems short-sighted and perhaps unnecessary, in light of the scenarios laid out above.


Essentially, there’s going to be a lot of moving parts around the lineup and around the field all season because you’re really only talking about Choo, Cabrera, and Kipnis figuring to be a true “everyday” player at one position. Some of that is predicated on a particular player’s strength (getting Hannahan’s glove into the lineup) or weakness (making sure Hafner and Kotchman don’t face LHP) and if you wanted me to do the same thing with what’s going to happen in LF and CF to protect Brantley from LHP, protect Grady from…well, himself, and how Duncan and Cunningham or Spilborghs fit into that mix, I could do it – and probably will because of this whole Grady situation which blows LF wide open.
But you get the general idea and I’ve taken too much of your time already…

That said, the Indians have to maximize their talent on hand to find the right mix of players to compete from Day 1. In terms of pitching, that may take a while to flesh out – much longer than the time under the Arizona sun allows – but in terms of finding spots for the pieces that figure around the diamond (and in the infield in particular), prudent usage of players is tantamount to the Indians remaining that yapping dogs at the heels of the Tigers all season long in the Central.

Of course, since they haven’t even played a Spring Training game and the pieces are already moving around because of the Sizemore injury, it all remains to be seen as we’ve only just begun…