A Lazy Sunday Out in Left Field

With June now in full swing, complete with Tee Ball games, neighborhood Happy Hours and the unbridled joy with (finally) finding GLBC’s The Wright Pils at my local Heinen’s, things are good on the North Coast as the Indians remain near the top of the AL Central.  Certainly glaring holes persist and continue to concern, but before getting into the “hole” on the Indians that gets the most attention, let’s take a quick look around the rest of the top of the AL Central and see  Detroit going under the microscope again, this time by Jay Jaffe of his new “Hit and Run” feature at SI (which is a new feature at SI.com that is worth a look) and a realization that the White Sox have been paced by three players on the wrong side of 30.  Though I’d never bet against Paul Konerko and the body of work he’s put up (good read here, even if it contains the words “Hawk” and “Harrelson” in the same sentence), it remains to be seen how they’d be able to handle an injury or two, particularly because their supporting cast (like the Tigers) is pretty non-supportive, with not much by way of reinforcements on the horizon.

And with that mention of “reinforcements” on the horizon, now is a good time to look at that aforementioned “hole” on the Indians that has generated more hand-wringing and hair-pulling since a “man” named Dellichaels patrolled the same hallowed ground those many years ago – LF.  Despite the fact that the offense hasn’t been the problem for the Indians (this has), since SO much focus has been placed on this “need” for a RH bat, with LF as the obvious spot for one, let’s spend a Lazy Sunday out in LF…

Seeing as how the question of “how did we get here” in LF is a rabbit hole I’ve already jumped through and since I have no intention of revisiting that cold, dark place that it led to where names like Trevor Crowe (currently in Akron) are mentioned, let’s take the opportunity to look forward.  Because “where we’re going” in terms of LF is much more interesting as we’re entering about a 6-week stretch that could determine what’s going to eventually going to happen in LF for the rest of the season.  The reason that 6-week timeframe is mentioned is because as Grady’s recovery hit (another) setback and with Damon looking better as of late (small sample size siren blaring) with Matt LaPorta (for whatever reason) on the parent club, the Trade Deadline at the end of July could serve as the endpoint to the stretch of games we’re embarking upon.

Since I’m not going to be the guy to hammer away at the “Buyers” or “Sellers” theme in mid-June in the interest of page clicks and realizing that there’s a LOT that can happen between now and then, while it didn’t seem like there was a lot of clarity on the Grady situation when Castrovince wrote this thoroughly depressing piece a while back, the news that he’s not even running right now calls into question whether he’s coming back…ever.  And that leaves us where we are, with Damon taking the majority of the reps in LF, Duncan as a RH bat off of the bench, and with LaPorta looking (once again) like the Matt LaPorta we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the last few years.

While many have (already) soured on Damon and were pleading for LaPorta to get a chance in Cleveland, it always reeked to me of the “Second-String QB” town that Cleveland has become in the past decade or so, with the argument that he “couldn’t be much worse” than Damon and/or Duncan (don’t get me started on people that are complaining about Cunningham’s presence on the roster as that’s baseball discourse at it’s lowest level) as a LF as justification to get another extended look at LaPorta in LF.  Now, with MaTola on the Indians and looking every bit as bad at the plate (just count how many off-speed pitches/curveballs he misses in between wristing fastballs JUST out of the infield) as he always has, the calls for LaPorta to get consistent playing time have diminished significantly…and in pretty short order.

Interestingly, what has been most telling about MaTola’s brief time with the Tribe – other than remembering what he looks like flailing at pitches down and away or grounding out meekly to SS on the 1^st pitch of an AB or being out of position at 1B…all in the first game – was the language that was used by both LaPorta and the organization as it related to his call-up.  Though this was admittedly from a week ago, LaPorta’s words prior to last Sunday’s games was only the first sign of an obviously growing disconnect between player and organization.  Quoth LaPorta, to reporters on Sunday:

 “I’m up here hopefully to help contribute to this ballclub…If it’s two days, three days, a week -- doesn’t matter.

--snip--

“I just need to have fun, play the game the way I know how and not worry about what [the media is] thinking, what somebody else is thinking or what a fan is thinking.  It’s been a problem that I’ve had to overcome. I can’t control what other people think. I’m not in control of somebody else’s happiness. If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry.”

Wait…“If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry”?

How does this suddenly fall at the feet of “you guys” (the media), “a fan” or “what somebody else is thinking” in terms of being disappointed with him, a 27-year-old failed power prospect with a career OPS under .700 in more than 1,000 plate appearances?

Let’s see…who did we miss here in terms of passively/aggressively finding people to blame – Ozzie Guillen for dubbing him “MaTola” (and please read this if you’re wondering where “MaTola” came from or want to read the most overtly dismissive soundbite from an opposing manager regarding one player) when he explained his reasoning to leave the RH Peavy in a game in April of 2010, instead of going to LHP Joe Thornton?  

Regardless, LaPorta knows where he stands in the organization (which isn’t very high) and almost seems resigned to the idea that he’ll make his way out of the Indians’ organization after the season because he “can’t control what other people think” and because he’s “not in control of somebody else’s happiness”.  Of course, he ignores the fact that he had over 1,000 PA as an Indian (Andy Marte had 858 PA for Cleveland) and has numbers that are basically akin to what David Dellucci did in his time on the North Coast…seriously, look at the numbers for LaPorta and Dellucci, as an Indian.

But if he’s ignoring it, don’t think that Acta was going to let this idea that LaPorta is an obvious upgrade to the roster is going to slip by his desk without throwing in his opinion on it, as he had this to say when MaTola was called up:

“At the beginning, his (AAA) numbers were a lot better at home than on the road, but the overall numbers are there…He’s been doing a good job. If you look at the amount of at-bats he’s had in [Class AAA] the last couple of years, the numbers are pretty good.

They felt that he was doing the right things over there. He was having success and hitting mistakes whenever [pitchers] made mistakes on him. We have to see that translate up here.”

And there – right there – is why I love Manny Acta.

He basically said that LaPorta’s AAA success came from “hitting mistakes whenever (pitchers) made mistakes on him” and that “we have to see that translate up here”, meaning that the organization doesn’t think that anything’s really changed with MaTola.  He was a mistake-ball hitter in MLB the last couple of years, continued to be a mistake-ball hitter in AAA (where there are more “mistakes” made by pitchers) this year and there’s no great confidence that he’s going to be anything more than that.  Ultimately, we’re still talking about a 27-year-old player with a slugging percentage UNDER .400 with 30 career HR in 270 games.  For a player that was supposed to be as close-to-MLB ready as he was purported to be (now almost FOUR years ago), that’s unbelievable.

Now, if fans want to continue to believe that LaPorta is “close to breaking out” or deserves one last chance to sink or swim as an Indian, they can have at it.  I’ll be pleased to know that the Indians are not similarly deluding themselves as an organization into believing that he is something that he is not.

So, if LaPorta isn’t the answer in LF (and he isn’t), than what is?

To date, Indians’ LF have posted a cumulative line of .184 BA / .286 OBP / .272 SLG / .588 OPS with only 9 XBH in 239 PA on the whole season.  That’s impossibly bad (plus an OBP higher than a SLG) and though the Nationals’ LF have a lower OPS, that XBH total is jarring to see past the quarter pole, particularly when Carlos Quentin just returned from the DL for San Diego and has 9 XBH in only 35 PA…but I’ll get to that.

That said, on this island of depression, what are the Indians to do if Grady isn’t coming back anytime soon, if Matt LaPorta is Matt LaPorta, if Shelley Duncan is a great RH bat off the bench and clubhouse presence but not an everyday player and if Johnny Damon has just recently started to look like an actual MLB player again?

For now, I think that you put Johnny Damon out there every day (fielding and throwing…um, “concerns” and all) to see if he’s able to settle into a groove.  You may be fighting back down the bile after reading that, but he’s looked better since coming back from paternity leave and he’s actually performed pretty well as of late (.976 OPS since May 27^th…small sample size louder than ever), so I’d be inclined to see what he could do through the month of July.  Let’s not forget that Damon had a decent year last year for the Rays (16 HR, .744 OPS) and while much of that came as a DH, concerns that he’s simply chasing 3,000 have been allayed a little as he’s sitting on a BB% this year that would rank as the highest in his career if it were to remain steady.

Additionally, Damon was unquestionably rushed to the team (he’s played in all of 29 games so far) and – if this talk of him using the month of May as Spring Training are anywhere close to true – I’d let out the rope on him and see if his early June success can continue.  Damon’s 2011 rate stats compare favorably to those from LaPorta (similar HR%, lower K%, higher BB%) and Damon actually had a higher SLG (.418) than LaPorta did (.412) last year, so this talk of “power potential” for LaPorta is more than just a little overblown, at least in terms of thinking that he’s going to hit for more power than Damon in MLB on a consistent basis.

Yes, Damon’s defense is…um…“suspect” and he’s LH, but everyone remembers LaPorta in LF, right?  Do we need to be reminded of that, in the way that his recent “performance” at the plate since being recalled has brought back his 2011 plate appearances memories so vividly? 

Also, while some paint LaPorta as the RH bat that will solve all that ails the Indians against LHP (or at least help), remember this:

MaTola vs. LHP – career (269 PA)

.209 BA / .297 OBP / .319 SLG / .617 OPS

MaTola vs. RHP – career (750 PA)

.247 BA / .304 OBP / .420 SLG / .724 OPS

Other than seeing that LaPorta has actually hit RHP better than LHP in his career to date, this is shown here to point out that MaTola’s career OPS vs. LHP (.617) would rank him 8^th when compared to how current Indians are faring against LHP this season, including behind Shelley Duncan.  So, as much as LaPorta may have mashed his way out of Columbus, my guess is that he’s going to find himself there soon enough as he is not an answer – short-or-long-term.

If it seems that I’m beating up LaPorta unnecessarily, I do so only because it needs to be pointed out that he is NOT a better option than Johnny Damon, who should be given a longer leash than what many fans want to give him because he still represents the best current option on the roster in LF, age considered.  Maybe that causes you to shudder a little bit (and we all know how we got here) and realizing he’s the best current option is certainly damning with faint praise, but this is the situation that the Indians find themselves in as it pertains to LF and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Indians keep Damon (with a sprinkling of Duncan) going until mid-to-late-July.  At that point, they can evaluate Damon’s contributions to date, see where Grady is (or is not) and perhaps explore the Trade Market. 

In terms of that Trade Market, since Buster Olney wrote this week that Carlos Quentin would be a “perfect fit” for the Indians, the Quentin idea is interesting (and one I alluded to a couple of weeks ago) as he’s played only 10 games and he’s already being mentioned as a Trade Candidate.  Sure, San Diego GM Josh Byrnes is saying all the right things publicly (“we’re still exploring signing him long-term”, “we need his bat in the middle of the lineup”, etc.), but the Padres are likely to move him at some point in the next month of so, with MLBTR putting forth that the could be one of the only “impact” bats available this Trading season…though he will not come cheap.  

In fact, the MLBTR piece provides a nice encapsulation of the Quentin situation and the dearth of power that could be available, driving up his price tag, quite nicely:

When GM Josh Byrnes acquired Quentin last December, he sent minor league left-hander Pedro Hernandez and right-hander Simon Castro, a former top-100 prospect, to the White Sox. The Padres may be able to acquire better prospects if Quentin’s knee holds up and his bat returns to form. As I mentioned before, there doesn’t seem to be much power on the trade market (Alfonso Soriano could probably be had, but he earns $18MM in 2013 and 2014, which makes things messy). And it could take a while for bats to become available because more teams than ever are within striking distance of a playoff berth.

Once Quentin plays enough to show he is healthy, Byrnes could make him available and wait for other teams to start making offers. The Indians, Orioles and Dodgers are among the teams that might have interest in adding a right-handed hitting outfielder with power in the next eight weeks. If Quentin is healthy the Padres may come out ahead this summer and trade him for better prospects than the ones they surrendered to acquire him.

Certainly, the Indians would be on the list of interested teams, but with Quentin coming off the DL and already having hit 5 HR, you’d have to think that his price tag is being driven up with each XBH.  Which brings us to the question of what young players the Indians would even have to trade for Quentin’s services?

In mid-May, it was suggested that it would take “more middle-infield depth in the high minors”, which the Indians actually have in players like Cord Phelps and Jason Donald.  Don’t take that to mean that Quentin could be had Phelps/Donald and Dave Huff and Trevor Crowe and…hmm, let’s see what other ancillary player can I think of that would not interest the Padres at all as I look (in jest) for the ESPN Trade Machine…

However, the Indians and Padres have been trade partners fairly recently, with the Friars being able to turn some of the Tribe’s young relievers (Mike Adams, Mujica, and Cory Burns…who is torching AAA bats right now) of the past into useful pieces.  Of course, the Padres have been able to turn LOTS of arms into useful relievers and you could certainly argue that the Indians simply wouldn’t have the chips to cash in for Quentin (even as a rental) that would be more attractive than offers from other teams.  But if the Padres are looking for middle infielders and/or power arms to fill in their bullpen, the Indians might (stress on that word) be able to perhaps find a match.  Don’t forget that Padres’ GM Josh Byrnes cut his teeth in Cleveland and that the Indians brought him in to find a position for him when he was fired in Arizona a few years back.  That may mean nothing in terms of a Quentin trade, but that relationship does exist, even if the Indians are going to have to sweeten any pot with more than just happy memories in Cleveland.

If it does come down to sweetening the pot for a guy like Quentin (who must have been the only Stanford guy NOT drafted by the Indians in the 2000s), I would think that any prospect not named Lindor would be fair game for me and I’d probably include that top layer of relievers (Barnes, Lee, etc.) with the exception of Hagadone because Quentin fills a need for now and for later.  Remember, Hafner’s money comes off of the books after this season, as does Grady’s, and there’s no guarantee that Carmona/Hernandez is going to be around in 2013, so the Indians could have the wherewithal to trade for Quentin with the idea that they’d offer him the contract that they should have offered to Willingham, filling a massive hole in LF and in their lineup in the process.

It was thought at the time Quentin was traded to the Padres that a stumbling block to the Indians acquiring him was the…um, contentious relationship between the Front Offices at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and on the South Side.  Don’t think that the Indians wouldn’t love to slot Quentin into their lineup for purposes more than just his bat.  Certainly, he’s had injury issues in the past (he’s never played in more than 131 games in a season), so there would be cause for concern in the long-term for a now-29-year-old Quentin, but he would represent a pretty compelling option on the FA market after this season and being able to negotiate with him by acquiring him could cause the Indians to give up more than they’d usually be willing to give up for a two-month rental.

That all said (and delving into the Trade Market WAY more than I wanted to in mid-June), there’s a long way to go in this march and there’s a possibility that Johnny Damon has found his stroke once again or that Grady Sizemore’s body somehow stops betraying him and the Indians find themselves in the market for a starting pitcher instead of a RH bat for LF.  That’s what we saw occur last July and, while the results of that addition have been…um, underwhelming, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a similar sequence of events if the Indians find themselves at or near the top of the AL Central come mid-to-late-July.

Then again, just staying at or near the top of the AL Central into mid-to-late-June is what should be the focus now as the starting pitching needs to start carrying their weight on this team, as much as all of our eyes keep finding their way back to LF over and over again.

Tomahawks Hitting on More Cylinders

Though the recent slide by the Indians has had some in town using “trapdoor” more regularly while invoking last year’s team and using words like “other”, “shoe”, “dropping”, the Indians remain 1 ½ back of the White Sox and haven’t fallen as far out of the AL Central race as the Tigers (6 GB), the Royals (6.5 GB) and the Twins (10 GB) have in a division in which they may only have to be “better enough”.  Certainly, their performance after sweeping the Tigers at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario (which feels like a LONG time ago) has raised more red flags than we can count, but let’s realize that in their last 16 games, the Indians have gone 7-9.  Interestingly, they’ve gone 4-0 against the Tigers and 3-9 against the Marlins, the Royals, and the moribund Twins (all at home) as their rotation has spun out of control and as they sustained injuries to key spots in their lineup. 

Don’t take that to mean that everything is just fine on The Reservation as the season will be determined by how quickly (or slowly) the Indians’ rotation (and particularly Masterson and Ubaldo) can find some semblance of stability and the frequency in which Smith, Pestano, and Perez are being used could come back to bite the Tribe down the stretch.  However, things don’t look much rosier in Motown (Jackson still hurting, Fister back to the DL, Avila now to the DL, Raburn to the Minors, etc.) and the Twins don’t look to be rebounding anytime soon…like any time in the next decade or so, so the Indians may just have to keep pace for a while in the AL Central.

While “keeping pace” and being “better enough” may not quicken the pulse (nor does the fact that 60% of the Indians’ current rotation has an ERA that is 5.00 or higher…with Gomez creeping in that direction as well), the AL Central is an eminently winnable division, recent White Sox hot streak or not.  Though I’m not going to point to Ubaldo’s start on Monday night as a possible turning point back up the ladder (fool me once, shame on you…) as I’ll wait for about a month of effective starts before assuming that Ubaldo is “back” in any sense of the word, the Indians are attempting to get back to their winning ways as they embark on this road trip, trying to figure out where their season is going.

While the pitching is really what needs to get figured out, the attention figures to continue to be turned to LF; but since that’s a topic for another (Sun)day, let’s get some Tomahawks in the air…

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Lost in this mess of a pitching rotation over the last couple of weeks has been the performance of some young Indians at the plate and no player has taken greater advantage of the opportunity in front of him more than Lou Marson.  Yes, Lonnie Chisenhall has arrived (not sure if that should be in capital letters or not) and thrived to this point, but after Santana’s concussion and after his own health issues, Marson has started to look like a player that could provide some contributions beyond the normal “backup C” role that so many seem inclined to simply slot him into.

While it’s difficult to believe, given that the Indians should have been resting Hafner more consistently and limiting Kotchman’s exposure to LHP, Marson had only TWENTY-THREE plate appearances in the 1^st 30 games of the season and he (quite predictably) looked bad during those sporadic AB, posting a .053 BA / .217 OBP / .105 SLG / .323 OPS line, leading many to use him as an “offensive” punch line  Since that time, he’s played in 13 of the last 22 Tribe games as he has seen his playing time increase significantly in recent weeks (outside of his mouth issue), responding positively to the point that he’s hit to the tune of .321 BA / .406 OBP / .464 SLG / .871 OPS and actually has the second highest OPS on the team over the last 30 days, coming in behind only a splendidly resurgent Choo.

Yes, Marson is still struggling against RHP (.429 OPS this year) and hammering LHP (.941 OPS this year), but the Indians need to continue to keep Marson behind the plate as Santana continues to shake off the after-effects of this concussion.  Maybe you say that Santana’s already been cleared to play, but concussions are scary things (see Morneau, Justin) as they affect a baseball player’s ability to play every day and Santana as a catcher would be more at risk to taking a foul ball of the mask and shelving the Indians’ young backstop longer than he would need to be.

Maybe the Indians want to get Santana right back behind the plate to get his confidence back up, but I’d prefer to essentially slot Santana at DH for a while or maybe put him at 1B against LHP (because Kotchman really can’t hit LHP) and play Marson every day at C while the DH spot is ostensibly open because of Hafner’s absence.  In a short time, Marson (who is younger than every position player on the roster save Chiz, Kipnis, and Brantley) has shown that he may be more valuable than just as a straight back-up catcher.  While Santana’s defense is unquestionably improved this season, protecting Santana and finding out what the Indians have in Marson (who was the 43^rd best prospect in MLB going into 2009, according to MLB.com, and #66 according to BA that same year) could be a nice by-product of the Hafner injury, particularly going forward, if you figure that Kotchman is a one-year “band-aid” at 1B and that Hafner doesn’t figure to come back next year, meaning that Santana could slot into one of those spots eventually with a viable Marson (if he proves to be such) asserting himself as a catcher with excellent defensive skills who holds his own offensively.

Perhaps the Indians’ long-term answer at 1B lies somewhere in Laser Lou’s…(gasp) bat.

__________

While Marson has been a pleasure to watch over the past week, he hasn’t been the hottest young Indians’ hitter or even the hottest young Indians’ hitter acquired for a Cy Young Award winner.  That distinction belongs to…no, not the guy who doesn’t seem real pleased with the organization or anyone else, with the manager being less than optimistic about his long-term viability.  It belongs to one Mike Brantley and, though I’ve been more than a little hard on Brantley and the enthusiasm generated by his approach and swing while most ignored his largely transparent production to date, I’m more than happy to point out that Brantley has been on a tear as of late.

To say nothing of his defense in CF recently (and I thought his catch on Sunday was as impressive as the HR robbery in Chicago), over the last 23 games, he’s posted a line of .348 BA / .376 OBP / .483 SLG / .859 OPS with TEN XBH (8 2B, 2 3B) in his last 93 PA.  He’s also stolen 7 bases in that stretch, looking more like the high-OBP, speed player that he was projected to be than he ever really has.  Some of that has been paced by a .389 BABIP (and I don’t expect him to continue to keep up this pace), but Brantley has started to emerge as a consistently viable hitter, something that you would only be able to project a few weeks ago.  Really, over the last couple of weeks, he’s hit at a pace closer to what the elite in the AL have done (and look at Kipnis in the Top 10 on that list) and while I’m not going to suggest that production like that is sustainable for Brantley, it certainly represents a positive direction.

Obviously, it’s up to Brantley to sustain some level of success (and again, I don’t expect him to keep up this pace), but it is worth mentioning that Brantley is tied for 7^th in the AL with 16 doubles.  Not to overplay the “on pace” game here, but with the season essentially 1/3 of the way over, Brantley is “on pace” for 48 2B on the season.  If he were, in fact, to tally that many two-baggers, it would tie him for 13^th most hit in a single season by an Indian and would be only the 4^th player since 1940 (Belle in 1995, Ronnie Belliard in 2004, and Grady in 2006) to notch 45 or more doubles.  Also, his 9 SB now ranks him tied for 8^th in the AL in SB (behind league leader Jason Kipnis) and, if we’re going to continue the “on pace for” exercise, there is a possibility that he finishes the year with 30 SB (remember, he’s stolen 7 in his last 23 games), a number that only Grady has reached (in 2007 and 2008) since Roberto Alomar left.

Maybe this is just a tease with Brantley or maybe we’re actually turning promise and potential turn into production.  If it’s the latter, it certainly comes at a welcome time as the Indians are going to have to be firing on all cylinders offensively until (?) their starting rotation is able to turn things around.

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Over Memorial Day, I spent the weekend in Milwaukee (the “Best Bar City in America” – or so says my most recent issue of Esquire, which includes my friend Vince Grzegorek’s write-up of the Velvet Tango Room) helping my in-laws move into a condo…well, in between attempting to load up on Fat Tire and Spotted Cow with my brother-in-law.  While there, I was perusing the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel sports section and saw this advertisement at the bottom of one of the pages of sports page, hyping Brewers’ C Jonathan Lucroy as a “Rising Star”.  Keep in mind, this was before his wife dropped a piece of luggage on his hand that will put him out of commission for a while and at the time, the Brewers were 20-26.  Regardless, this “Home is Where a Rising Star Is” push seemed a little optimistic to me, in light of the fact that Lucroy had a .674 career OPS coming into the season.  Certainly, he was off to a hot start this year (.969 OPS in the first ¼ of the season) before breaking his hand in the aforementioned freak luggage accident, but it got me to thinking about the manner in which the Brewers’ market their team to the fans. 

Lucroy out to a fast start?

Run an ad calling him a rising star…

Though I don’t want to make this an attendance-driven issue, realize that Milwaukee is a smaller market than Cleveland and is 9^th in the league in attendance, drawing TWICE what the Indians do in average attendance per game.  Sure, they made the playoffs last year and they made it back in 2008 and their aggressiveness in acquiring players (CC, Grienke, Marcum, Aramis) has certainly kept their town’s focus on them, but the Brewers go out of their way to promote individual players – from Ryan Braun all the way to Jonathan Lucroy.

Compare that to the Indians, whose advertising push seems to be stuck somewhere between nostalgia (Baerga bobblehead) and pleading the fans to get out to the ballpark without using their most marketable assets – their young players, some of whom are perhaps burgeoning stars.  While I’ll admit that the Indians have given away replica jerseys for Masterson and Perez this year and the area around Progressive Field is covered in banners touting individual players, the fact that I see more than just a few “KIPNIS 22” jerseys at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario these days suggest to me that some fans are getting excited about these players and giving them an organizational marketing push seems to be in order.  Realizing that the “What If”campaign strikes a nerve among a certain segment of the fanbase, in this age of INTENSE coverage of players and storylines by a certain 4-letter network (that still somehow dictates the narrative) on the East Coast, it might be time to put these players into the local spotlight.

Of course, I understand the double-edged sword of promoting the name on the back of the jersey over the name on the front of the jersey (think Victor sitting in front of his locker crying), but between Santana, Kipnis, Asdrubal, and The Chiz, the Indians have the makings of an infield that could be among MLB’s elite…regardless of who’s playing 1B.  And each of those players is under club control through 2014, at least with Santana, Kipnis, and The Chiz all under club control THROUGH 2017.  So it’s not as if any of these guys are about to go the way of each star we’ve seen since Al Belle (either via FA or trade) in 1996.

Maybe the Indians are just waiting for these guys to fully develop into established, bona-fide stars, but it would seem that Santana, Cabrera, and Kipnis are well on their way to being among the elite players at their positions at their respective positions.  Unfortunately, without the reminder of how well these players are playing and without them getting the marketing push that they should, fans continue to focus on what the team is not (LF) instead of what the team looks to be and could be going forward.  Certainly, the Brewers didn’t have an ad campaign prior to the season that would come close to calling Lucroy a “Rising Star”, but (injury or not) they promoted one of their own in an effort to familiarize their fanbase with a player that was out to a hot start.

With the starts that some of the Indians are out to, maybe it’s time to start seeing those faces gracing the promotional material with the focus being on those players instead of a tug of nostalgia or simply a hopeful feeling.

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Finally, I hope that you’ve enjoyed Al’s coverage as much as I have in terms of the 2012 Draft and while I don’t get into it nearly as much as many Tribe fans do, I will suggest that we avoid the whole “wait, they drafted who…AWWWW” mentality until we actually see what these guys can do.  Some believe that Tyler Naquin is Trevor Crowe v.2.0 (please no) while others want to envision him as Jacoby Ellsbury (10 HR in 259 Minor League games) and since I’m not going to pretend to know if he’s either or somewhere between, let’s see how this shakes out.

It looks like they took some high upside players in the rounds after Naquin and I’m not all that convinced that the Indians didn’t think that Naquin was a player that has a nice hitting stroke that may not generate a ton of HR (the Tribe’s current RF has 70 career HR in 8 seasons…and I’m OK with him) but has other tools (strong arm) that harkens back to a time when…well, when people weren’t supplementing themselves and that may translate to MLB pretty cleanly.  Certainly, I’m not suggesting that the Indians just drafted a guy like Dwight Evans – strong arm, tall, lanky, good on-base skills, perhaps late-developing power – but let’s see how Naquin looks against some players that are his age or a little older than him on the Farm before really coming up with an opinion on him. 

Over the last few years, I’ve developed a bit of an idea that I want to see a player succeed at AA (at a young age) before getting REALLY excited about him (although Lindor is challenging this) because the distance between Akron and Cleveland is much longer than a quick trip up I-77.  With that in mind, let’s wait and see what Naquin or any of these guys look like and enjoy the hard work and terrific analysis that Al does in breaking these guys down in easy-to-understand concepts while avoiding the temptation to get too high or too low on these guys…way too early.

Don’t Forget to Write

A note from Paul...

Now 64 (kind of a famous number around town) years and counting since the Tribe’s last World Series Championship, I’d like to welcome longtime Cleveland journalist and sportscaster Dan Coughlin for a guest post on the engine that made that 1948 Indians’ team run, Lou Boudreau, and his magical 1948 season.  In case you didn’t know, Boudreau’s offensive contributions that year rank among the best ever compiled for a SS in a single season as Boudreau captured the league MVP trophy (nearly unanimously, besting both a 33-year-old DiMaggio and a 29-year-old Williams), putting together a season that ranks among baseball’s best in the IntegrationEra (since 1947)…all while managing the Tribe to a World Series victory.

But enough from me, here’s Dan…

I believe that in the year 1948 Indians player-manager Lou Boudreau put together the greatest season in baseball history.

My epiphany occurred one winter day in the late 1990s. The Indians had just signed a free agent and we interviewed him in the Tribe’s empty locker room. All the locker cubicles were cleaned out. But in front of Albert Belle’s former locker was a large cardboard box full of mail. The box was the size of a washing machine and the mail was literally overflowing.

“What are you going to do with Albert’s mail?” I asked one of the clubhouse boys.

“It will be thrown away,” he said. “Albert doesn’t want it.”

I didn’t say anything, but inside I was outraged. Those letters were from kids, love letters to an entirely unlikable human being. They did not send only letters. There were packages. The kids sent Albert their gloves, caps, T-shirts, hoping he would sign them and mail them back.

On the ride back to the television station – I was with Fox 8 at the time – I told this story to our photographer, Ted Pikturna. In 1948 every drugstore in Greater Cleveland had a rack of penny postcards featuring pictures of Cleveland landmarks, such as the Mall, the Art Museum and the Terminal Tower. There also were postcards featuring glossy black and white photographs of the Cleveland Indians stars. Cleveland was in a baseball frenzy that summer. The postcards cost maybe a dime and it cost one cent to mail them.

Well, I bought a Lou Boudreau postcard. I was nine years old and he was my hero. Hell, he was everybody’s hero. I wrote Lou a love letter and enclosed the post card, beseeching him to sign it and send it back.

Three weeks passed. Maybe the Indians were out of town. Finally the post card came back. Lou addressed it to me, signed the picture side and licked the one cent stamp. (Lou had to retrieve my home address from the outside of the envelope I mailed him.) Now I had Lou’s picture, his handwriting and his DNA.

Years later when I was in the Army my sister threw away all my childhood treasurers.

Having told that story, photographer Pikturna suggested that I write a column about it and I thought that was a good idea. That night I called Lou Boudreau at his home outside of Chicago. He picked up the phone on the second ring.

“What are you doing, Lou?” I said.

“I’m sitting here in my living room answering my mail,” he said. “I’ve got a lapfull of mail. Here’s one from Florida. Here’s another from Boston. Isn’t it nice? They still remember me.”

That was unscripted but it was a dramatic response.

Returning to 1948. Baseball hysteria reached its all-time peak that year and Lou was under intense pressure and scrutiny. The Indians, you will recall from your history books, tied the Red Sox for the pennant and had to win a one-game playoff in Boston to propel them into the World Series. The Indians then beat the Boston Braves in six games for the world championship.

Lou was the shortstop. He ran the team from the middle of the infield. Owner Bill Veeck had brought in old timer Bill McKechnie as baseball’s first “bench coach” to advise the young manager, but the responsibility still fell on the shoulders of Boudreau, who turned 31 years old that summer.

That is only part of the story, however. Boudreau responded with the greatest offensive season of any Indians’ shortstop ever – maybe the best year by a shortstop in baseball history.

Boudreau batted .355 – second only to Ted Williams’ .369. Lou hit 18 home runs and 45 doubles. He drove in 106 runs and scored 116. Lou was a shortstop and he put up numbers that would have made Joe DiMaggio proud.

He walked 98 times and struck out only nine times. Put that in upper case. He struck out only NINE times in 152 games.

Frankly, a couple of other player-managers also had great years, including Tris Speaker, the centerfielder who managed the Indians to the 1920 world championship. Speaker batted .388, second to George Sisler’s .407 average. Speaker drove in 107 runs and scored 137 and he had 50 doubles. That pennant race also went down to the last two days of the season but for all practical purposes it was over with a week left when the Chicago Black Sox were exposed for dumping the World Series the previous year and several starters were suspended for the final week of the season.

Rogers Hornsby managed the St. Louis Cardinals to the National League pennant in 1926 while having a hellacious year at the plate. He played second base.

But the atmosphere surrounding the Indians’ 1948 season was unprecedented at the time. The Indians set a major league attendance record with 2.6 million admissions. The cavernous old Stadium often was not big enough.

And most importantly for a nine-year-old kid, Lou answered his mail.

Dan Coughlin has covered the Cleveland sports scene for 45 years, as a sportswriter for The Cleveland Plain Dealer (1964-1982) and on WJW-TV 8 (since 1983). He was twice named Ohio sportswriter of the year and was honored with a television Emmy. Dan has written two books: Crazy, With the Papers to Prove It and Pass the Nuts. He blogs at Coughlin Forever. 
Photo (c) Danny Vega

Indians Select College OF Naquin

The Indians surprised everyone last night, selecting Texas A&M outfielder Tyler Naquin with the 15^th overall pick in the first round of the MLB draft. I profiled twelve players as potential picks for the Indians, and never in the process of writing either the draft preview or my mock draft did I consider Naquin for the pick. I didn’t have him going anywhere in the first 20 picks. To say that this caught me off guard would be an understatement. In fact, the pick caught pretty much everyone off guard, as most of the conventional wisdom had the Indians taking a college arm, right up to and including the time the Indians were on the clock ready to make their pick. I say pretty much everyone, because I did get an e-mail from one Paul Cousineau a couple hours before the draft asking me if I thought Naquin was in the mix. I chuckled to myself a little, thinking there was no way that was happening. As always, Paulie knows best!

Naquin is a 6’2”, 175lb outfielder who throws righthanded and hits from the left side. He played right field for the Aggies, where he showcased his plus throwing arm. He hit anywhere from first to third in the order, and led the team in hitting with a .380 average. His season line for the Aggies is a solid .380/.458/.541 with 3 HR, 49 RBI and 21 steals in 26 attempts. He hit 6 triples, 18 2B and scored a team-high 56 runs. In 242 at-bats, he’s struck out 37 times and walked 25. The production is there, and in one of the top college programs in the country. His hit tool is considered to be one of the best in the draft, with scouts hanging a 50 current grade with a future 60 on that aspect of his game. He has a sweet lefthanded swing, and when he gets a ball down in the zone he does a nice job dropping his hands but keeping his swing level and hitting line drives. As the 3 HR this year would indicate though, his power is a below-average tool, and projects to stay that way. Because of that, many experts are calling him a “tweener” in the OF. He’s seen by some as a guy who can’t quite play CF defensively, but also won’t hit for enough power to play in a corner. He has a narrow base and high hands atsetup, both things that cause his swing to be a little longer than it shouldbe, and both things that the Indians developmental staff will likely try toadjust once they get their hands on him. 

Defensively, Naquin’s best tool is his arm. It’s being called the best in the draft by many, and grades out as high as a 70. As the 21 SB would indicate, he’s also got plus speed. He wasn’t necessarily in RF collegiately because he couldn’t handle CF, but because A&M had an even faster player on their roster that they had in center. He’s not a sure-thing to be able to handle the transition up the middle of the diamond, but he’ll probably get a shot to prove he can make the switch. In his pre-draft rankings, ESPN’s Keith Law wrote that “…there’s no reason Naquin couldn’t handle center in pro ball given reps out there…his ceiling is an above-average everyday CF who adds value with his glove, his legs, and by getting on base.” He’s made atleast one spectacular play in RF, robbing a HR in conference play against theBaylor Bears. 

Pre-draft rankings aren’t everything, but Keith Law had him ranked #42 overall, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo had him pegged at #30, and Baseball America slotted him as the #25 player in the draft. All numbers indicative of a first round or at worst sandwich pick, but no one had him going in the top 15. It’s unclear as to whether he was really the top player on the Indians board when the 15^th pick came around, or if they saw him as a good value pick that they could sign for less than slot and save the remaining $$ for picks later in the draft. With the new draft rules giving teams a finite amount of money to spend, it’s important to plan well and get the most out of all of your picks. If Naquin can play CF and he signs for less than the $2,250,000 slot, then the pick could be a steal. If he proves to lack the defensive chops for CF and his power projection is what it is, then it could end up being a reach. His ceiling is probably a .310/.380/.450 guy with 15 or so HR and 30 SB, with above-average defense in CF. If he turns into that, then Antonetti and company have hit a home run. Bottom line, unlike last year, we really won’t know how good of a pick this was in context until the rest of the draft plays out. Have I mentioned that I hate the new draft rules?

MLB Mock Draft

The 2012 draft kicks off tonight when the Houston Astros go on the clock at 7pm EST. It’s going to be televised live on the MLB Network, and the Indians pick 15^th overall in the first round, then have a long wait until their 2^nd round pick at #79 overall. Most of the “experts” have the Indians looking at a college arm, but most of them said that last year when they stole high school shortstop Francisco Lindor with the 8^th overall pick. A lot can change in the next few hours, but here’s how I see the first 20 picks of the draft shaking out. When the Indians do get on the clock, I’ll use that time to get in last-second tweets on who I think the Indians will pick, and who I think they should pick. If you missed yesterday’s draft preview, check it out here as it has more in-depth scouting reports for most of the guys the Indians will likely consider at #15.

1.  Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford

Appel has been talked about as the potential top pick all spring, and he’s done nothing to dissuade that notion. He has a clean, easily repeatable delivery that generates plus-plus velocity, as his fastball sits between 94-97 and can touch 99. He’s not on the level of a Strasburg, Harper or even Gerrit Cole, but he’s a worthy #1 pick who could be a front line starter down the road.

2.  Minnesota Twins: Bryon Buxton, OF-Appling County HS (Georgia)

Buxton is an elite athlete, a potential two-way superstar in CF. He’s going to be an outstanding defender in CF, a potential gold glover with one of the better outfield arms in the entire draft. His power ceiling is questionable, but he has strong wrists and a quick bat, so most talent evaluators are convinced that with the right coaching he will hit for both average and power as a professional. He’s not a sure thing, but he probably has more upside than anyone that will be selected in the 2012 draft.

3.  Seattle Mariners: Carlos Correa, SS-Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

The Mariners passed on 2011’s fast rising shortstop (Lindor) and will not make the same mistake this year. Correa is a dark horse for the top overall pick, and has one of the best skill sets in the entire draft. He’s a potential 2-way star at SS, but his bat is his main tool and there are thoughts that he could outgrow SS and end up at the hot corner. Even if that happens, his bat will play there, and his cannon arm will serve him just as well at 3B. He’s just 17 years old and has incredible upside. I think Seattle would be making a big mistake if they pass on him here.

4.  Baltimore Orioles: Kevin Gausman, RHP-LSU

Gausman is seen as a bit behind Mark Appel in the class of college arms, but not much. He sits between 93-96 with the fastball, and has touched 99. His best secondary pitch is his slider, which he throws at 83-86 with excellent tilt and late life. He also features a solid changeup that can flash plus, as it has good down and away action from lefthanded hitters giving him a nice weapon to attack them with. His command isn’t elite, but it’s improved and most scouts see at least #2 starter upside here, if not #1. He’d be a great addition to an Orioles system that already features a ton of young pitching.

5.  Kansas City Royals: Kyle Zimmer, RHP-San Francisco

This is a spot that might feature a dark-horse pick, because I’m not sure the Royals are as high on Zimmer as most. But they are in dire need of advanced arms, and while you don’t draft for need in the MLB draft, I can see Dayton Moore picking the best remaining college arm on the board. Zimmer is an athletic starter who sits between 92-96 with a solid changeup, but lacks a go-to breaking ball. He’s a converted infielder, so he has more room to grow than most college starters, but he’s also not as polished as most college starters. This is one of those picks where I have to slot someone in and I have to slot Zimmer somewhere, so I’m basically making a SWAG that he ends up in KC.

6.  Chicago Cubs: Albert Almora, OF-Mater Academy (Florida)

Almora is a potential all-star CF, the second best prep bat in the draft behind Buxton. He’s not as fast as Buxton and doesn’t have as strong of an arm, but he’s got a better power projection and should still be an above-average defender in CF. He has a compact swing and quick hands that explode through the zone, and most scouts see him as having 20-25 HR power eventually. He has above average speed that plays up due to his baseball instincts, and while not a burner should still be able to steal bases in the show. The Cubs have been high on Almora throughout the process, and it’s almost unanimous that this will be the pick if he’s on the board.

7.  San Diego Padres: Max Fried, LHP-Harvard Westlake HS (California)

Fried is the draft’s top lefthanded high school arm, and has a lot of scouts predicting a future #2 starter in the big leagues. He already sits between 90-93 with his fastball, and does a nice job locating it to both sides of the plate. He has an above-average curveball that flashes plus, and an extremely advanced changeup for a high schooler. He’s a good athlete and has a very clean, repeatable delivery so there won’t be much for his professional pitching coaches to fix. He’s a rare high school arm that isn’t high risk, as he’s already got some polish and pitchability so he should move fairly quickly through the system.

8.  Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Zunino, C-Florida

Pittsburgh would have to be thrilled if Zunino fell to them, as he’s one of the better college bats in the draft. He’s not going to be an elite defensive catcher, but he should be able to remain at the position. That, plus above-average hit and power projections, have him coming off the board anywhere from 4-8. I can’t see him getting past Pittsburgh here, despite rumors of them taking Arizona State SS Deven Marrero (which I think would be a reach here.

9.  Miami Marlins: Courtney Hawkins, OF-Carroll HS (Texas)

Breaking the hearts of Tribe fans desiring a toolsy outfielder, the Marlins take the best remaining prep bat on the board with Hawkins. For a more in-depth scouting report on Hawkins and some of the other guys who I have going off the board in the next few picks, check out yesterday’s MLB Draft Preview.

10.  Colorado Rockies: David Dahl, OF-Oak Mountain HS (Alabama)

Colorado would love Hawkins if he’s here, and are reportedly on Fried as well if he drops. Another toolsy HS OF off the board, and another heartbreaker for Adam Burke. Dahl’s scouting report is also in yesterday’s piece.

11.  Oakland A’s: Joey Gallo, 3B-Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada)

Gallo has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but he also has probably the best raw power in the entire draft. The 6’5”, 220lb lefthanded hitter has also touched 97 on the mound, but has made it abundantly clear that he wants to play the field at the next level. His defense is so-so, but if he can shorten up his swing to generate more contact but still maintain his power profile, his defense will not be a concern. Still, there’s a chance that he flames out as a hitter and ends up back on the mound at some point, which would be a nice fall-back option for whoever drafts him.

12.  New York Mets: Lucas Giolito, RHP-Harvard-Westlake HS (California)

Here’s where things start to get weird. As I explained yesterday, Giolito has 1-1 talent, but is hurt. Teams are going to be scared off by both the injury and bonus demands, but if the Mets can work out the parameters of a deal beforehand, Giolito makes a lot of sense here. If he doesn’t go here, he probably doesn’t go till the later rounds as a backup in case a team can’t sign their high 1^st-round pick. Have I mentioned that I hate the new draft rules? If not Giolito, look for the Mets to grab a college arm.

13.  Chicago White Sox: Marcus Stroman, RHP-Duke

This would be the most White Sox pick ever. Kenny Williams, not a patient man by any means, would love to pick a guy who could help the pennant run this year, and if they move Stroman to the bullpen that’s exactly what he could do. Very similar to the Chris Sale pick, Stroman has outstanding stuff but it’s unclear as to whether he can hold up physically in the rotation. If this pick happens, expect Stroman to get jerked around between the bullpen and starting role for the next few years, similar to what we’ve seen with Sale. I’d love to see Stroman on the board at 15, but this seems like too easy of a pick for the Sox.

14.  Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Heaney, LHP-Oklahoma State

Heaney, Stratton and Wacha are all in play here. Pretty much everything I’ve seen has the Reds on a college arm, and with Stroman gone those are the only three that make sense. All else being equal, take the lefty.

15.  Cleveland Indians: Chris Stratton, RHP-Mississippi State

Sigh. This is who I think the Indians will take, not necessarily who I want them to take. With the way the board shakes out, really only a few options make sense here; Clemson 3B Richie Shaffer, high school arm Lance McCullers, or one of the reaming college arms (likely Wacha). I’d love to see them gamble on McCullers, who has much higher upside and much higher risk, but the sensible pick here is Stratton. I’d also rather see them take Shaffer, who has top-10 upside with the bat. I’d even prefer Wacha. This is probably a case of me planning for the worst and hoping for the best.

16.  Washington Nationals: Michael Wacha, RHP-Texas A&M

The Nats jump on the remaining 2^nd tier college arm. The Indians could take Wacha, leaving Stratton for Washington as well. Wacha is actually decent value here, as he was seen as a potential top-10 pick earlier this spring. Deven Marrero is also a possibility here.

17.  Toronto Blue Jays: Lance McCullers, RHP-Jesuit HS (Florida)

The Jays have always drafted for upside; expect that trend to continue here. McCullers is a real boom or bust guy, and I think Toronto would love to see him fall to 17. He might be a tough sign with the new draft rules (that I hate).

18.  Los Angeles Dodgers: Ty Hensley, RHP-Santa Fe HS (Oakland)

With new ownership, the Dodgers are a bit of a wildcard; no one’s really sure what the mandate from on high will be, or if they will just step back and let the baseball people do their thing. Either way, Hensley makes a lot of sense here.

19.  St. Louis Cardinals: Addison Russell, SS-Pace HS (Florida)

An athletic SS who could stick defensively, Russell lost 25 pounds this winter to try and show scouts that he will be a shortstop long-term. Still, if he fills back out and has to move to his right on the diamond, the bat should play. He has plus raw power that could still improve, and while he’s not a great overall hitter he should improve to above-average after experience against better pitching. He’s got a couple of mechanical flaws that need to be worked out, but he’s a good athlete and should have no problem adjusting and getting coached up at the dish.

20.  San Francisco Giants: Matt Smoral, LHP-Solon HS

I think that Clemson 3B Richie Shaffer makes more sense here, but supposedly the Giants are locked in on a HS arm. It’s not everyday you can add a 6’5” lefty who throws in the mid-90’s to your system, and Smoral only falls this far due to the foot injury that kept him off the mound most of this spring. 

Lazy Sunday Feeling a Draft

The first round of the 2012 Amateur Draft (the Rule 4 Draft) will take place tomorrow at 7pm and be aired live on the MLB Network. That means that you’re stuck with me for a 2^nd straight Lazy Sunday, and Paulie gets another weekend off. The Indians have the 15^th overall selection in the draft after picking 8^th last year. For the 2^nd straight season, the Indians have no compensation picks for losing free agents, so after the 1^st round they do not pick again until #79 overall with their 2^nd round pick, then their 3^rd round choice at #110. After the third round, things go back to normal and the Tribe will select 15^th in each round. The overall talent pool this year is not nearly what it was last year, as 2011’s draft class was universally regarded as one of the best in years. Still, the Indians should be able to add an impact prospect with their first round pick, just not on the level of a Francisco Lindor. As you’ll see when we get to the player previews, the crop of college bats this year is especially poor.

This year’s draft is going to be drastically different from the past because of the new rules handed down from the Commissioner’s office regarding bonuses. The Indians have a total of just $4,582,900 to spend on not only their first ten picks, but on any bonuses of over $100,000 for the rest of the draft. To put it lightly, this is a game-changer in terms of draft strategy. For example, Lucas Giolito is a high school righty that was being considered for the #1 overall pick until an elbow injury took him off the mound in March. He’s back to throwing, but not pitching. There’s a chance he could fall to #15 overall and be there when the Indians pick. He would likely demand at least a $4 million bonus, likely more. If the Indians paid him $4 million, they’d have just $582,900 to spend on the rest of their top-10 picks. If the Indians decide to go just 5% over their bonus pool, they get taxed at a 75% rate and lose their 1^st round pick next year. Obviously, that’s not something the Indians (or any other team for that matter) can afford to do. I’m not going to delve too deeply into the new structure for a couple of reasons; one, I already did it and you can just click on this handy link to read my extensive thoughts. Two, because it makes me really, really angry. So check out the link for details on how BudSelig “fixed” the draft, then come back when you’ve calmed down and read therest of our little preview here.

Oh, and the other change this year is that instead of 50 rounds in the draft, there will be 40. This is where I remind everyone that Mike Piazza was a 62^nd(!) round draft pick.

Before we get to the players the Indians will be considering for their first round pick, let’s take a refresher as to the rules of the game. To be eligible, players must:

·  Be a resident of the United States, Canada, or a U.S. territory such as Puerto Rico. Players from other countries are not subject to the draft, and can be signed by any team (unless they are current members of college teams in the aforementioned countries).

·  Have never signed a major or minor league contract.

·  High school players are eligible only after graduation, and if they have not attended college.

·  Players at four-year colleges are eligible after completing their junior years, or after their 21st birthdays.

·  Junior and community college players are eligible to be drafted at any time.

While it is difficult to get a read on who will be on the board for the Indians at #15, we can at least take an in-depth look at some names that could be there and that the Indians would consider with the pick. Like last year, we’ll take a look at the collegiate players that are in the mix first, followed by the high schoolers. I will again caveat this preview by telling you that I’ve never seen any of these players play baseball live, and I’m going purely off of scouting reports and video.

College Pitchers

Andrew Heaney, LHP-Oklahoma St.

Heaney is the top collegiate lefty in the draft. He has a smooth, easily repeatable delivery that easily generates velocity in the 89-92 range, and he touches 94. He delivers it from a three quarters delivery, giving the pitch nice armside run. His curve is his best secondary pitch, and it’s a hard curve with good depth and break. He compliments it with an above-average changeup to give him a starter’s arsenal, and scouts are unanimous in their belief that he has the stuff to stick in the rotation long-term. All of his stuff plays up due to his feel for pitching, as he really knows how to attack hitters and is a smart player on the mound. He’s listed at 6’2”, 175lbs but actually looks skinnier than that, so there are some concerns about his durability and chance to be a 200+ inning workhorse in the bigs. He doesn’t have one pitch that stands out as a dominant offering, but all three of his pitches project to be average or better. His ceiling is probably a #3 starter, but his floor is probably a #4 starter, so that’s a pretty valuable player when it’s all said and done. Plenty of “experts” are linking the Indians to a college arm and Heaney is scheduled to come off the board between 10-16, so he could very well end up being the selection.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 40%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 50%

Chris Stratton, RHP-Mississippi St.

Stratton was one of the top starters in the SEC this season after starting the year in the bullpen. He had been a starter for the past two years, then moved temporarily to the bullpen, then back into the rotation where he became the Friday starter for Mississippi State. He’s a 6’3, 190lb righty that sits between 91-94 and can touch 96. His best secondary pitch is his slider, which is already plus and could be a plus-plus pitch down the road. He also features an average and improving changeup as well as a curveball that’s not a major league pitch yet, but could develop into one down the road. Stratton is already 22, old even for a collegiate pitcher, so there’s concern that he doesn’t have as much room for development as some of the other arms in the draft. He’s seen as a safe pick, but one without an extremely high ceiling who will likely top out as a #3 starter if all goes well. He’ll likely be on the board at 15, but I think the Indians can select someone with a higher ceiling even if he is.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 80%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 20%

Michael Wacha, RHP-Texas A&M

Wacha is a 6’6”, 200lb righty out of Texas A&M. He sits comfortably in the 90-93 MPH range with his fastball, and can reach back for 95 when he needs to. His best secondary pitch is actually his changeup, which is a plus pitch already and has great life down and out of the zone. He reminds me of former Indians prospect Alex White coming out of college; good but not elite velocity, plus secondary pitch (in White’s case it was his splitter), and no real breaking ball to speak of. Wacha throws a hard curveball that is pretty flat, and is really more of a slurve. The refinement of that breaking pitch is going to be the difference between a potential #2 starter and a #4. He has good command to both sides of the plate, and a deceptive delivery that hides the ball well. He has a little turn at his balance point back towards 2^nd base that helps him keep the ball out of sight for a split second longer, then it just explodes out of his long frame to help his velo play up. Wacha is another polished collegiate arm that should move quickly through the system, and is projected to go off the board anywhere from 10-20, putting him squarely in the Indians territory. I would not be at all surprised to see Wacha wearing a Chief Wahoo cap tomorrow night.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 50%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 50%

Marcus Stroman, RHP-Duke

Stroman is an intriguing prospect. He has some of the best stuff in the draft, sitting consistently in the mid-90’s with his fastball and touching 99. He has a wipeout slider that scouts see as a plus-plus pitch, a true swing and miss offering that can make hitters look silly. He also has a hard curveball, a slurvy pitch that ends up on lefthanded batters back foot. Just for fun, he throws a changeup that grades out as at least average, giving him four major-league quality pitches. So with all that said, why is there even a possibility that he’s going to be around at #15 for the Indians? Well, he stands just 5’9” tall and is righthanded, and that’s not usually a recipe for a front-line starting pitcher. Many worry that he won’t be able to stand up to the rigors of throwing 200+ innings a year in the rotation, and have him pegged for the bullpen. He served as the closer for Team USA this past summer, and his stuff plays up even more in a relief role. He’s seen as an extremely fast mover who could pitch out of a major league bullpen this year, and almost a sure thing to be at least an effective reliever. He could go anywhere from 10^th to 25^th, depending on whether teams see him as a starter or reliever. He should be an easy sign, and would be a tempting pick for the Indians at #15. The more I read about him the more I like him, and think he could be a steal for the club if he can remain in the starting rotation.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 40%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 50%

College Hitters

Richie Shaffer, 3B-Clemson

Shaffer is the only college bat that’s projected to go anywhere near #15. There are a couple that will likely go before him, and one or two that could go after him in the 1^st round, but that’s about it. This draft is universally agreed to be a very poor draft for college bats. Shaffer is a 3B that projects to have 25-30 HR power once he matures. He has an excellent eye and good patience at the plate, and does a nice job picking out his pitch and driving it. Because of his pitch recognition abilities, he should be a high OBP guy as well. He uses all fields at the plate, and has a smooth, line drive swing. Scouts differ as to his defensive ability, with ESPN’s Keith Law saying “…there’s little doubt he can stay at 3^rd barring injury,” and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein reporting “…many see him as a bat-only prospect who will need to move to 1B as a pro.” The more I read about him the more he sounds like Lonnie Chisenhall with a little more pop. That sounds like a pretty valuable player to me.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 60%

Chance the Indians take him if he's there: 50%

High School Pitchers

Lucas Giolito, RHP-Harvard-Westlake HS (California)

Giolito is the biggest wildcard in the draft. He could go anywhere from 2^nd overall to the 2^nd round. Why? Well, he’s the most talented high school pitcher in the draft, a 6’6” righty with a triple-digit arm. He sits comfortably between 94-97 and can touch 100. His secondary stuff is just as impressive, as his power curveball is ranked among the best in the draft, and he has an advanced changeup as well. The changeup is unusual for a high school pitcher, and helps make him one of the better RHP to come out of the prep ranks in years. His stuff is comparable to Dylan Bundy’s, and we’ve seen how Bundy has buzzsawed his way through minor league hitters so far in 2012. So why is there a chance that Giolito goes undrafted in the 1^st round? Well, he strained his UCL earlier this year, and he’s only throwing off of flat ground right now. The UCL of course is the ligament in the elbow that’s been responsible for so many Tommy John surgeries, so that tends to worry teams. Still, if the draft rules were the same as last year, Giolito would go somewhere by the early teens for sure. But with the new rules regarding bonuses, teams with smaller commissioner-imposed budgets will have to shy away from Giolito for fear that he will spurn the lower bonus for the chance for much bigger dollars as the first overall pick three years from now. He’s got a scholarship to UCLA waiting, and if he’s healthy he’s virtually assured of being the top selection when he’s eligible again after his junior year. If it’s last year, I would say that the Indians would jump on him in a heartbeat if he’s there at 15. But this year, they can’t afford to take him unless they negotiate a deal at or near slot ahead of time. The Indians slot for their 1^st pick is just $2,250,000, compared to $7,200,000 for the first pick in the draft. If Giolito decides that he wants to get his professional career started and sign for less than $3,000,000, great. If not though, the Indians would be better off passing on him and letting another team take that risk.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 40%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 10%

Matt Smoral, LHP-Solon HS

Smoral is a local kid who, like Giolito, is a bit of a wildcard due to an injury he suffered this year. The big difference is that Smoral’s injury was a stress fracture in his foot, not a strained ligament in his pitching elbow. Smoral is a 6’8”, 225lb lefty who sits between 90-93 with his fastball and touches 95. He throws from more of a three-quarters delivery, which helps him get really nice arm-side run on his 2-seamer. He compliments the plus fastball with a slider that is already average and flashes plus, and most scouts see it as growing into an out pitch at the next level. His third pitch is a changeup that needs a lot of work, as it is a pitch he didn’t really need to refine in order to dominate high school hitters. Smoral is a high risk, high reward guy as scouts didn’t even get to see him pitch his senior year, but he has the frame and the velocity to tantalize front offices around baseball, and the fact that he throws lefty is just icing on the cake. Smoral has had injury issues besides the foot, which concerns some that he’s just not going to be able to stay healthy long-term. I’ve seen him go anywhere from 9^th to 20^th in mock drafts, so there’s clearly a wide range of opinions out there. I haven’t seen him linked to the Indians anywhere, but that doesn’t mean they won’t consider him if he’s on the board at 15. 

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 80%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 20%

Ty Hensley, RHP-Edmond Santa Fe HS (Oklahoma)

Hensley doesn’t have the skills of either of last year’s prep arms out of Oklahoma, but Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy both have future #1 potential, so it’s nothing to be ashamed of to be considered a cut below that class. Still, Hensley is a power arm with a good chance to be in the front end of a major league rotation someday. He sits between 91-94 with his fastball and has touched 98, and the fastball is his best pitch. His main secondary offering is his power curve, a 12-6 offering that looks like it’s falling off a tabletop when it gets to the plate. His changeup lags behind both of those pitches, as like most prep arms he didn’t need to work on it much to get through high school batting orders. Hensley doesn’t have the cleanest delivery out there, as his motion is downright violent and isn’t easily repeatable. That will likely get cleaned up as he gets coached up at the next level, but it means that he could have unlocked potential in his frame and be able to throw even harder. Hensley projects to come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, but he’s really not the type of player the Indians target, so I doubt he’ll be on the North Coast after tomorrow night. There’s an awful lot of risk here, and the ceiling isn’t so incredibly high to make the gamble worthwhile.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 80%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 10%

Lance McCullers, RHP-Jesuit HS (Florida)

The son of a big league pitcher, McCullers is a real boom or bust prospect. He was primarily a hard-throwing reliever and shortstop until his senior year, when he cleaned up his mechanics and improved his command enough to be a starting pitcher. He has plus-plus velocity, sitting between 93-96 and has touched triple digits with his four seamer. In addition to the four seamer, he throws a two-seamer that sits in the low-90’s with nice arm side run. He has a hammer curveball that is already above average and projects as plus, a pitch that he used to make high school hitters look downright silly in some of the footage I’ve seen. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but he has a developing changeup that he didn’t really need in high school, but it’s a pitch that he’ll need if he wants to stick in the rotation as a pro. His delivery has been cleaned up, but is still a little rough around the edges, as his lower half gets well ahead of his arm and he sometimes needs to rush too much to catch up. It’s an interesting delivery that generates a lot of hip torque, and we’ll see if coaches at the next level try to tweak it or just leave well enough alone. McCullers doesn’t have great command, leaving some scouts to peg him as a reliever down the road. But he’s still just a high schooler, and an arm like his will be given every chance to stick in the starting rotation. Whoever selects him does so accepting some level of risk, but with the potential of a big reward down the line. Personally, I’d like to see the Indians take a shot on him.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 70%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 30%

High School Hitters

Stryker Trahan, C/OF-Acadiana HS (Louisiana)

Trahan probably has the coolest name in the draft. In addition to that, he’s a toolsy bat-first catcher that some feel could end up in the OF long-term. He was seen as a possible top-10 pick before the spring, but didn’t have a great season for his high school team and has fallen down the boards as a result. Still, the tools are there, and the tools are impressive. He has a plus arm that will serve him well either behind the plate or in RF. His footwork is slow and he needs to clean up his release, but these things are fixable. Still, if the team that selects him decides they’d rather move his bat along through the system quicker, he can move to RF and his bat will still play. It won’t be elite the way it would be if he can stick behind the dish, but it will play. He shows average power with plus potential, and has strong, quick hands that get his bat through the zone in a hurry. He makes good, hard contact with good hip rotation to generate power, but his game has a lot of swing and miss in it, which is concerning because he’s going to be facing much better pitching once he signs. He starts from a very narrow base and has a toe-tap, both things that will likely be tweaked at the next level. Still, he has a powerful lefthanded swing and the tools to catch; that alone assures him of a spot in the first round.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 80%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 20%

Courtney Hawkins, OF-Carrol HS (Texas)

Hawkins is an extremely toolsy outfielder who’s considered one of the better power hitters in the draft. He’s got quick hands and an explosive swing that generates a lot of pop. He’s got a lot of swing and miss in his game though, and there’s a risk that his hit tool never develops enough to let his power materialize in game situations. He has a plus arm (he’s hit 90 on the mound) and average speed, and profiles as a classic RF at the next level. He’s shown the ability to punish a fastball, but is an extremely aggressive pull-hitter and that approach leaves him prone to being attacked with offspeed stuff, something that he’s going to see an awful lot of as a professional. High school breaking balls are nothing compared to even high-A, and he’s going to have to work on staying back on the ball and avoiding back-side leak in his swing. His swing has a lot of moving parts, as he has a toe tap and his hands are constantly in motion as he loads. You sometimes hear about pitchers not having an easily repeatable delivery; Hawkins does not have an easily repeatable swing. Still, he has outstanding raw talent and profiles as a potential all-star RF down the road. That package has most experts seeing him come off the board in the 8-12 range, and if he makes it to the Indians at 15 it will be a mild, but pleasant, surprise.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 10%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 90%

David Dahl, OF-Oak Mountain HS (Alabama)

Dahl has garnered some comparisons to Johnny Damon…not the current iteration of Johnny Damon, but more the vintage Red Sox version. He has solid gap power that has the potential to mature into more, plus speed and is a good enough defender to stick in CF long-term. He has a simple, compact swing from the left side that results in a lot of line drives. He hits from a very wide base and has virtually no stride, which leads to a quick and fluid weight transfer. His throwing arm is above-average, and there’s really no weakness in his game. He’s going to be an above-average defender with speed who can hit and will pop a few HR as well. He’s a good athlete who will continue to improve with experience against quality pitching. He’s more of a tools guy than performance at this point, but the tools are impressive. All in all, it’s a tantalizing package that will take him off the board in the first 15 picks, and likely in the 8-12 range. He’s a potential 20/20 centerfielder, and those types of players don’t tend to last too long. If he’s there when the Indians pick, expect them to snatch him up with a smile on their faces. But it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll be there at 15.

Chance he’s there when the Indians pick: 10%

Chance the Indians take him if he’s there: 90%

So now you have an idea of some of the prospects the Indians are considering with their first pick in tomorrow’s draft. It could be one of these guys, or the top of the board could get crazy and it could be someone else entirely. There are still more questions than answers at this stage of the game, and the draft is barely 24 hrs away. Check back tomorrow for my mock draft of the first 20 picks to see who I think the Indians actually end up with, and who I actually want them to end up with. And of course follow along during the draft on twitter (@Gotribe31), where I’ll make my predicted pick and preferred pick when the Indians go on the clock.