Look At All These Rumors

With all of the crazy things that are flying around in the paper and the Internet in the past few days, it reminds me of the classic Timex Social Club song, Rumors.

With so much happening though, here are some thoughts:
When the PD reported that Paul Byrd was in town to meet with the Tribe brass, it occurred to me that Byrd is the type of pitcher likely to sign with the Tribe: a solid, if unspectacular, starter who will sign for a 2 year - $12M deal and perform solidly for the life of the contract.

The Tribe is looking for a RH to slot between Sabathia and Lee who can give them innings and keep them in games. Loiaza signing with the A’s has set the market (though I think that Oakland overpaid for Loaiza, to go along with every other ridiculous pitching contract handed out so far this offseason), but at least there are some parameters to get a deal done. Pitchers like Byrd and Matt Morris fit into the mold of the Indians’ desire for this year, more so than giving a Millwood or a Burnett a 5-year deal.

Remember that the Indians’ farm system is loaded with young arms, so if you lock up too many pitchers on long-term deals, those young arms never get a chance to prove themselves.
At the beginning of the 2005 season, if someone had told you that B.J. Ryan was going to get $47M on the FA market after the year, you would have thought they were crazy. So, what’s changed? He had one nice year and has great potential as a closer. But a 5-year deal? For that money? No chance.

Reportedly, the Yankees are close to signing Kyle Farnsworth as their set-up guy and the Phillies are making a strong push for Tom Gordon, so those two “targets” may be off the radar very soon. Both players have closed in the past, but have their warts, just like a Wickman, so neither is a sure thing.

On the other hand, a possible HOF closer who was “insulted” by his former team’s initial offer may be just what the doctor ordered. IF Trevor Hoffman is able to baited off of the Left Coast and into Jacobs Field, it would be a major coup for the Indians. Apparently, he’s looking for a 2-year deal worth about $16M with a vesting option for a third year. Considering what the Tribe “allegedly” offered B.J. Ryan, I don’t think that’s an impossible request. Yes, Hoffman is 38 and has had arm trouble, but he does also have a track record and was his usual dominant self last year. Who knows what he might be able to do in the AL. But with the number of closers dwindling, time is of the essence on the Hoffman front.

Wedgie was on the radio over the weekend, singing the praises of Hoffman, using a lot of the same adjectives used about Millwood prior to his signing last year: Veteran, Presence, Clubhouse Leader, Poise. The Hoffman thing could be a replay of the Millwood thing from last offseason, where the Tribe “missed out” on the big names (Pavano, Clement, Wright of last year, Ryan and Wagner of this year) to take a chance on a veteran looking to prove his worth. The fact that Wedge (who normally is so vanilla in interviews) was so over the top in his evaluation of Hoffman makes me think that Hoffman will be the one closing games for the Tribe next year.

Think about this: Would Hoffman have the same effect on the young bullpen (Cabrera, Betancourt, Brown, etc.) that Millwood did last year on the rotation? A future HOF teaching those young arms how to prepare themselves for games, how to get out of jams, how to keep their emotions in check, etc. would be invaluable considering the talent that is out in the pen.
So with one starter taking up about $6M-$7M next year and a closer costing about $8M for next year, you’ve added about $15M to solidify the pitching staff (remember, I’d like to see Cabrera in the Howry role and have the young guns Carmona and Sowers battle for the 5th spot). My thinking is that the Tribe is probably going to add about $20M-$25M in payroll to what is there, so you’ve taken up about 2/3 of it.

The final $5M-$10M goes toward that bat. The two names now being thrown around are Brian Giles (still) and Nomah (new). Despite my feelings for Jimmy Fallon, Ben Affleck, and that whole hack SNL skit that skewered Sawx fans, if Nomar came to the North Coast, I’d be shouting NOMAHHH with the rest of the fans.

Nomar seems to fit into the Indians’ line of reclamation projects (if you want to call them that), or players who have something to prove and are given the opportunity to prove them. I have no problem with Nomar filling the “Tony Phillips role” as Buster Olney suggests, having him move around the field. As a SS, one has to be a pretty good athlete, certainly good enough to play 1B (RF may be another story, even though Kasey Blake acquitted himself nicely to the outfield). There’s one thing that Nomar has always been able to do: drive in runs. The presence of his RH bat between Hafner and the Stick would look great to Tribe fans and like a nightmare to opposing pitchers. But I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself because these rumors (about Nomar and Giles) are just that.

Before my final spiel about salaries and perception vs. reality, here’s what the always-perceptive Terry Pluto had to say about the Tribe’s rotation next year from his online newsletter:

• Even without Millwood, I am very optimistic about the Tribe's starting pitching. C.C. Sabathia looks like he'll be a consistent 15-game winner, and Cliff Lee can be the same. Jake Westbrook can win 12-15 games. Most teams would love to build their starting rotation around those three guys. Then the Indians will face a decision on their prospects: Jason Davis, Jeremy Sowers, Fausto Carmona, Brian Tallet and Kaz Tadano. One Tribe executive told me that he believes Carmona is very close to big-league ready. I saw Sowers, and I believe the same is true for him. Tallet is an interesting prospect. I like Tadano, and Davis better in relief.
• One plan for the Tribe might be to sign a modestly priced veteran starter, such as Scott Elarton, for the fourth spot in the rotation, then shuffle through the kids to find a fifth starter. Let's remember how Lee and Westbrook established themselves. It happened because someone said, "These guys have the talent, now let's hand them the ball.''

Finally, I’m tired of hearing all of the talk about whether the Dolans are “going to step to the plate and pay some players or just pay us lip-service.” Last I checked the contracts that have been signed thus far have been ludicrous (see Perez, Neifi and Eyre, Scott), so the question isn’t whether the Indians will pay for their players, it’s whether they’ll pay prudently for their players.

Last year, the Tigers signed Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival (two players many thought the Indians should have signed) and were perceived to have really improved their team. Meanwhile, in reality this year the Tigers are in the market for…a big RH bat and a closer. There’s a big difference between shelling out big bucks for quality talent and shelling out big bucks for marginal talent. The system put in place seems to be working pretty well and, within that, there has to be some level of restraint. Sure, it would be great to have B.J. Ryan, but not at those numbers. It’s about spending wisely, not spending the most. Just ask all those teams that spent more than the White Sox this past season and watched the WS the same place that we did…at home.

If you’re not checking out the comments that are posted, start. There’s enough links and dirt flying around in there to keep everyone fat and happy.

The Fleecing of Toronto

Imagine the range of emotions this morning, as I see that B.J. Ryan reportedly agrees to a deal on the front page of the Sports section. Disappointment and a little bit of surprise, as Ryan had stated his intent to join a team ready for playoff contention.
Open the paper to the article detailing in the terms. Incredulously say out loud, “5 years for $47.5M?!?”. My thoughts turn to how the negotiations must’ve gone, probably over a nice dinner:
John Courtright (Ryan’s agent) – B.J. would really like to play for a contender next year.
J.P. Ricciardi (Toronto GM) – We feel we’re right there in the AL East, with money to spend.
Courtright – There are other teams in the running a lot closer than the Jays.
Ricciardi (going into used-car salesman mode) – OK, tell me what it will take to get B.J. into a Jays uniform. Throw out a number.
Courtright – I don’t know…5 years, $47 and a half million.
Ricciardi – Done.
Courtright (getting up, shaking hands, and throwing money on the table) – OK, great I’ll send over the paperwork tomorrow morning, (under his breath) before you realize what you’ve just done.

That may be a bit of a stretch, but let’s look at some hard numbers. Now in no way am I discounting that B.J. Ryan is a nice relief pitcher, certainly with the potential to close for a very long time in the majors. However, let’s do a comparison, using Mariano Rivera’s contract from 2001-2004:

Ryan 2005 - 31 years old, 42 career saves, 1 year of closing.
-Contract for 5 years worth essentially $9.5M a year
Rivera 2001 – 31 years old, 165 career saves, 4+ years of closing.
-Contract for 4 years worth essentially $10M a year
-Did I mention he also had 19 postseason saves and a WS MVP under his belt?

I realize that players’ salaries go up every year, but this is ridiculous. Billy Wagner, the consensus best FA closer is 33 with 284 career saves during 9 years of closing games.
Guess whose price just went up. Do you think that Omar Minaya reacted well to the report?

I assumed that Wagner would get about $9.5M a year over 3 years with Ryan’s deal settling at about $8M a year over 3. So, this just completely threw those numbers out the window, not only in terms of money, but also in terms of years. Who gives a reliever a 5-year deal? He may perform at a nice level for a few years, but to lock up a closer with a short track record for that amount reeks of desperation.

Now there are conflicting reports of whether this deal is truly done (probably as Ricciardi went back to the office, looking for congratulations and receiving only gasps of, “how long…and for how much…for B.J. Ryan?), but it illustrates the FA concept that It Only Takes One Team:

• It Only Takes One Team to offer two more years than everyone else.
• It Only Takes One Team to outbid everyoe (sometimes outlandishly) to set the tone for the whole FA market, causing everyone's prices to go up.
• It Only Takes One Team to “make a splash for their fans” by getting the player they want, regardless of any other circumstances.
  

We'll see if this deal goes through and, if so, who the Indians turn their attention to (Farnsworth, Hoffman, Gordon, or good ole Wicky) in the continuation of their bullpen restructuring project.

Trade Thoughts

With the trade market taking off (Delgado, Thome, Beckett, etc.), expect the Indians to join the festivities shortly, either via FA or trade. Some thoughts on recent happenings:

The White Sox acquisition of Thome puzzles me. Granted they got $22M of the $43.5M owed over his last 3 years, but the timing of it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Thome is essentially a DH, whose contract makes him attractive to very few AL teams (meaning that they weren't bidding against a ton of teams). Yet the White Sox jump at the chance to get Thome, before the Konerko situation is even resolved. He’s essentially the replacement for Frank Thomas, and insurance for 1B if Konerko moves on. But that’s assuming that his back is healthy enough to play the field. The White Sox were pushing hard to make this happen, but couldn’t they have waited until the asking price came down a little?
That being said, it was a great trade for Philly, whose lineup looks pretty tough for next year (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Abreu, Burrell, Rowand).

Even more curious is what the White Sox gave up to get Thome. Last offseason, Chicago traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik which seemed to set the tone for the season, as it moved the focus of the team from Rock 'Em, Sock 'Em to pitching, speed, and defense. It worked pretty well, obviously. So, the first move they make after winning a championship is to trade a Gold Glove caliber CF, and a grinder who epitomized their philosophy for … a slugger, capable of the big HR, but also the big K.
Brian Anderson is a nice OF prospect, but he remains just that. For every Grady Sizemore that emerges, there are a lot more Alex Escobars and Ryan Ludwicks.
I can’t tell if my personal feelings for Thome (that he always said all the right things, until he jumped town for “a better shot at the playoffs”) is influencing my thoughts on the trade, but it will certainly be intriguing to hear the reaction that Thome steps to the plate for the first time at the Jake.

You want a rival for the Indians, there’s your rival. Complete with a former teammate becoming the face of your nemesis, with Jim Thome in the Jack Parkman role from Major League II. Bad reference and a bad movie, but the similarities are just too eerie.

Now, the Philadelphia media is reporting that the Thome sweepstakes came down to the White Sox and the Tribe, with the Indians offering David Riske and Coco Crisp for Thome and Jason Michaels. I’m not sure if that’s true or not, or if it was “leaked” to give Tribe ownership some credence that “they went hard after Thome”. That trade would only be made if Thome’s back was guaranteed to be healthy enough to play the field, and the Phillies threw in a similar financial package. The Tribe was hesitant to give Thome these last 3 years when originally negotiating with him, so why suddenly would they want him for ONLY these 3 years?

The interesting aspect of the trade rumor is the names that came up in it for the Tribe. I don’t think that there’s any question that Shapiro is trying to deal Riske, seeing as how he just had a good year (stats-wise), even as he fell out of favor with Wedge. Shapiro will almost certainly try to move him in a package for a bat.
Coco’s name is more surprising, until you look at the big picture. Coco was always seen as a 4th OF as he progressed through the organization, fighting his way into the picture. After a solid year, Coco’s value may be at its peak and the fact that he doesn’t fit the mold of a corner outfielder (he’s really a CF/leadoff hitter, which we’re set on) leads me to believe that if Brian Giles becomes an Indian, Coco’s days may be numbered. Even if Giles doesn't join the Indians, when either Brad Snyder of Franklin Gutierrez is ready for the bigs, expect Coco (assuming he’s still around) to be the odd man out. With that being said, Coco’s stuck around a lot longer than other more ballyhooed prospects, so he may retire an Indian at this rate.

Coco would draw some interest in the trade market as he's a prototypical leadoff hitter (in some people's eyes who look only at his speed) and a good defensive OF (despite a weak throwing arm). He could always be packaged with Brandon Phillips and some arms for a starter (Javier Vazquez, Barry Zito) at some point to solve the hole in the rotation, rather than giving Millwood the 5-year deal that he is almost assured of getting somewhere.

Back to the Giles front, it seems that Giles may be willing to return to the place it all started, as he’s ruled out the Yankees. The Padres, the Cardinals, and the Cubs remain the other suitors, but Giles seems like the kind of guy who takes comfort and environment into consideration more than most. I would imagine that his personality would fit in well to the loose clubhouse where Hafner walks around in Battista T-shirts (from the WWE, for the uninformed), but is he willing to leave the San Diego sun or more money on the table for a return to the Jake?

It seems like the Indians are more concerned about locking up a bat and bullpen help as opposed to locking up the rotation, from the reports of who they are courting. B.J. Ryan is reported to be very interested in signing with the Tribe because he wants to close for a winner. Take the Yankees (set-up role), the Orioles (losers), and the Blue Jays (losers) off of the list. It seems that the loser of the Billy Wagner Sweepstakes (Mets or Phillies) will make a hard push for Ryan, which is why Shapiro is working hard to stage a pre-emptive strike. Unfortunately, since Wagner’s contract will set the market, you can’t have it both ways.

The next week or so should set up for some action coming from the Indians’ offices, as the there may be more money to spend, and moves are now being made, so the precedent is set.

WOW!

Jim Thome was dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Rowand and cash.

How's that for a return to the Midwest and the Indians' backyard?

What this means for Konerko and his status with the White Sox and what it means to the AL Central and specifically the Tribe, I'm going to need some time on.

Bullpen Option?

The FA "Visiting Period" has started as B.J. Ryan was in Cleveland on Monday night, being courted by the Indians. Ryan, the Orioles' closer, would look great at the back end of the bullpen, but he will not come cheap. Ryan is one of the top closers available and will be looking for a long-term deal like Alfonseca and Percival did last off-season (we saw how those worked out).

Ryan, a tough lefty, would give the Tribe 3 lefties in the pen (with Rhodes and Sauerbeck) and if Rhodes is thought to be the 8th inning guy right now, that's a lot of southpaws. Additionally, if Fernando Cabrera is not far away from closing, what's the point of giving Ryan a 3-4 year deal? And what's the harm in giving Wickman another year to raise my blood pressure?

Initially, I was pretty excited about hearing that Ryan was in town, but the more thought that I gave to it, the more I think that the money can be better spent elsewhere (rotation, RF, 1B) as bullpens always seem to be a bit of a crapshoot. Remember that Bobby Jenks closed WS games last year.

I think that the Tribe will go in the direction of re-signing Wickman on another one-year deal and signing another bullpen RH, like Julian Tavarez, to give the Tribe the bullpen depth that was so important in 2005.

Lastly, it looks like Bob Howry will join Scott Eyre in the Cubs' bullpen (for $12M) as the Cubs have made the decision to overpay for all of their FA signees this offseason. Bidding against yourself is not a good strategy.

Nibbles on the Hook

With most of the focus right now on the FA market, I have a feeling that there will be more action on the trade front for the Indians this offseason. With some parts that can be moved, the Indians can fill holes by trading for value. Obviously, many trades involve prospects in leagues so low that very few people know about them. But, since we had previously looked at players who may be viable options for the Tribe to acquire, it’s time to take a look at the flip side of the equation, because to get value, you have to give up value.

Players Who May be Trade Bait:
Ben Broussard –
If Bono Broussard is not brought back into the fold for next year (i.e. the Tribe signs or trades for another 1B or gives the job to Garko), Broussard will likely be non-tendered and shopped in the offseason. Broussard, whose streakiness has made Clevelanders feel that he’s the player on the outside looking in this offseason, seems unlikely to be the Indians lone starting 1B next year. He may remain as part of a lefty/righty platoon, but a lot of that would depend upon what kind of dollars he may command in an arbitration hearing.
That being said, Broussard is an attractive player to a team that does not require a lot of power from their 1B. He will likely remain a .250 hitter who will hit about 20 HR with 65-75 RBI. Not bad numbers for some team, particularly one in need of a LH bat and a decent glove at first (maybe an NL team). Broussard may be dangled for another bullpen arm, depending upon the outcome of the Wickman/Howry/Riske situations.
If Broussard were to leave, I would equate him to the Paul Sorrento of this era. A nice player, unlikely to really catch on elsewhere; but produced some nice memories while here. Plus, he can promote his album.
David Riske –
Riske (whose spell as the closer was derided by my bride as “not such a good sign…having your closer named Riske”) is another player who may be more attractive to another team, other than the Indians. He, like Broussard, could be non-tendered and traded to avoid the Indians going to arbitration with him. Riske is a nice reliever who seemed to fall out of favor with Wedge as the season wore on. His appearances grew less and less frequent as Betancourt, and then Cabrera, became more established in the bullpen.
Riske does have nice career stats, averaging 47 appearances a season in 6 seasons. His career ERA is 3.55 with a WHIP of 1.26, which could be very attractive to a team looking for a 7th inning reliever. With the Indians having Rhodes, Betancourt, and Cabrera all set to fill the 6th through 8th innings, Riske could be the casualty of numbers. If that is the case, most teams are looking for bullpen help and Riske could certainly bring something in return, as he is somewhat of a “known commodity”. He has limited closing experience (which didn’t go well), but he would be useful to most teams in the back end of the ‘pen; again, probably more so for teams other than the Tribe. This one may come down to dollars – whether the Indians think that Riske’s arm and experience is worth that much more money (he made $1.425M last year) than that of an Andrew Brown, Jason Davis, or Matt Miller.
Jason Davis -
With Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Sowers having seemingly leapfrogged Davis in the Tribe rotation’s future, Davis will probably figure into next year’s plans in the bullpen or on another roster. There is no debate over the fact that Jason Dangerously has a live arm, capable of dominating at the big league level. The internal debate for the Indians is whether his stuff translates better to starting or reliving.
Personally, I’m of the belief that his stuff would be better out of the bullpen, BUT (a big but) I’m not sure if his emotions are best suited for the bullpen. When he pitched for the Tribe, he was always victimized by that big inning or seemed to lose his cool, often with disastrous results. That is not the kind of track record or mentality you’re looking for in a reliever, where you have to almost be amnesiac. So, while his stuff may be best suited for the pen, I don’t think that he’s necessarily best suited for the pen.
With all of that being said, it takes us back to the fact that Carmona and Sowers would have to go into Spring Training as the top contenders for a spot in the rotation (if one exists). And other arms in the bullpen might be further along than Davis. So where does that leave JD? Trade bait?
Davis would be sure to bring some value back from a pitching-starved team. While trading young pitching is normally not a good idea, Davis may be the victim of the numbers game. The strength of the Indians’ farm system is pitching, and if Davis does not translate anymore into one of the top prospects (remember that the studs from Akron last year will be one step closer next year), Davis may be able to bring a young bat into the fold. Or he could be packaged to acquire a more established hitter. His potential (and his fastball) could enamor another team to overvalue Davis and give up something decent in return. Or, this could all just be conjecture and Davis could take a spot in the bullpen (or even the rotation) in 2006.
Brandon Phillips -
As has already been determined, the re-signing of Ramon Vazquez and Jelly Belliard’s option being picked up means the end of B-Phil’s time in Cleveland. Once the jewel of the Colon deal, Phillips’ head never caught up to his talent. Whether it was a maturity issue or being given too much, too early is hard to say. But with Phillips out of options and no spot available on the big-league roster, Phillips will be playing elsewhere next year. He may just need a fresh start or to go to another organization where he is not always referred to as “the main player in the Bartolo Colon” trade (particularly with the success of Lee and Sizemore staring him in the face).
The question becomes whether the Indians can get anything of value for Phillips. He is still young and nobody has ever questioned that his glove his ML caliber. He needs to shorten his swing and become the player he is, not the player he thinks he is. A couple more years in the minors would do that. Expect Phillips to be packaged up this offseason to a team in need of a utility player or an upper level 2B/SS prospect.
Jeremy Guthrie -
The Stanford grad and former 1st Round Pick’s career has stalled at the time when the Indians’ brass thought he would more than likely be in the rotation (or at least challenging for that spot). Guthrie, however, lost his confidence in his first trip to Buffalo (after cruising up to that point) and hasn’t gotten his mojo back. Maybe Dr. Evil took it. He is under contract for 2006 (the last year of a 4 year, $4.5M deal) and the Tribe would like to see some return on their investment. Whether that comes in the form of production in Cleveland or in the acquisition of some other talent is the question.
Right now, Guthrie wouldn’t bring much in return (he posted a 5.08 ERA in Buffalo in 25 starts and he’ll be 27 by Opening Day next year), so expect Guthrie to go to Spring Training “competing” for a spot in the rotation (in name only. Next year, he would fill the “6th starter” role that Jason Davis filled last year. The loser of the 5th spot (Carmona or Sowers) would probably be sent back to Buffalo and be kept on a schedule until a regular starting gig became open in Cleveland. Guthrie, meanwhile, could yo-yo back and forth, with no set day to pitch. He could just fill-in where he was needed, either helping the Tribe, showcasing himself for a midseason trade, or putting the final shovel of dirt on his Major League career.

Other players could be traded (Tallet, Stanford, Tadano, etc.), but they’d all fall under the category of a “throw-in” like Tim Drew in the Colon deal.
Remember that Shapiro talked about acquiring Barry Zito last off-season, so the trade market is always a fluid one. You never know who is “available” and what it would take to get them. Shapiro has pulled off some beauties in the past (acquiring Hafner, Sizemore, Lee, Crisp, Westbrook, and Rhodes via trade), so a trade is certainly a possibility. Maybe even moreso than a big FA signing.

With that being said, the more I read about this FA starting pitching market, the more inclined I am to believe that the Indians will sign a player like Paul Byrd to a 2 year deal. Something like that retains the financial flexibility that Shapiro preaches, while not locking down a rotation spot if (when) the young arms are ready for the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Incidentally, Billy Traber was signed by the Washington Nationals. Witnessing Traber's one-hit gem against the Yankees at the Jake is one of my greatest memories at the Jake. Half for Traber's performance, half for my confrontation with 4 New Yorkers in our section. After being told by the bride that she didn't "have my back" if it went down, things simmered to the point that we had beers with them at Cooperstown afterward. Seeing as how I was outweighed by them, collectively about 85o lbs. to 150 lbs. (soaking wet), and I escaped without bodily injury, it remains a feather in my cap.

Here and There

Since I don't want to give any more credence to Scott Boras' comments on Millwood, the Indians, and budgets; you can check them out in the Paul Hoynes article from Sunday's PD.

Other than Scott Boras proving he's the smarmiest agent this side of Bob Sugar, I take issue with the PD running this article and giving some credence to this blowhard. The problem is that Joe Bandwagon wakes up on Sunday and reads this article, saying to himself, "Boy, is Dolan cheap. If they don't give Millwood an 8 year contract - I'll never buy another ticket."

Knowing the (unfortunate) influence that the PD Sports Section has in this town, that's just irresponsible. Why don't they just float a story that Manny wants to come back to town (regardless of money still owed on a bloated contract or what the Red Sox would want in return). Oh, wait.

With article titles like "Time to Pay Up", is it any wonder there's so much defeatism in this town when it comes to sports?

Meanwhile, in reality, it's INSANE to give any pitcher a 5 year deal, much less one with major arm problems in his past. I'm all for getting Millwood back on this team for the innings, leadership, and guidance that he adds to the Tribe. But 5 years!?! Let Mike Ilitch sell some more Little Caesers' pizza to pay off that contract. A 5 year deal for a 32 year old pitcher with arm problems sounds tailor made for the Tigers or Orioles.

Word around the Stove has the Tribe offering Tom Gordon a contract, presumably to close. Howry seems to have priced himself out of the Indians' plans. While Howry had a great year with the Tribe, he too is still only a few years removed from major arm surgery and just pitched a ton of innings. Howry will probably get closer money and close somewhere next year, just not the Jake. Wickman remains a name not often seen or heard as to 2006.

If the Tribe signs Flash Gordon to close, expect them to sign another veteran reliever to solidify the bullpen. Perhaps a return to Cleveland by that famous bw-3 (when it was still bw-3) pitchman Julian Tavarez? I would pay to see him do another commercial where the umpire goes out to the mound to see wing sauce on the ball. Or maybe he'll come back to hit Brecksville's senior prom again (which Tavarez did in 1995).

All of this is probably just smoke coming out of the Hot Stove, but with pitchers and catchers scheduled to report on February 18th, the clock is ticking.

Hot Stove Tomahawks

Some quick hitters with all of the awards and Hot Stove League talk:

• Mark Shapiro was named TSN's Executive of the Year. Warranted for sure, but interesting that he was thought to have done a better job then Ken Williams, who (in a year) transformed his club from a group of underachieving sluggers to small ball playing WS Champs.
• The Atomic Wedgie came in second in AL Manager of the Year voting, behind Ozzie Guillen. Maybe if he had started the year out without the Magnum P.I. mustache, he could have avoided the slow start and won the Central and the Manager of the Year. Who said anything about superstition?
• Booger Colon won the AL Cy Young, with Cliff Lee and Kevin Millwood receiving votes. It seems that Colon has finally turned into the ace that everyone thought he would always become. Luckily, the Indians have something to show for it, unlike the Expos and the White Sox. Yesterday, today, and every day I still make that trade.
• Huston Street won AL ROY, only because Sizemore had too many AB in 2004. Otherwise, Sizemore would have (more than likely) been the first Indian ROY since Sandy Alomar, Jr.
• Bob Howry is allegedly looking for a 3 year deal worth between $10.5M and $12M. Wow! Basically, he's looking for closer money in the market. Here's the question: Do you re-up with Howry at those numbers, or go after a B.J. Ryan or Tom Gordon. And where does Sticky Wickman fall into this? Luckily, Shapiro is addressing the bullpen now, before all of the arms are pulled off of the market.
• According to Scott Boras, Kevin Millwood is looking for a 5 year deal, while the Indians' limit seems to be 4 years. All it takes is one team (Baltimore, Detroit, etc.) to make that commitment and Millwood is pitching elsewhere next year. Before you just say, "give him another year, we need him on this team" - remember similar comments were made about Jim Thome and the length of his deal. The Phillies gave Thome the extra years and now have to wear that contract like the albatross around their neck that it is. I'm not sure where I come down on this one, knowing the thinness of the FA starting pitching market, but also knowing that C.C., Lee, and Jake are a pretty solid nucleus of a rotation.
• Texas and Cleveland are talking trade. David Riske's name has come up, as has Coco Crisp. Paul Hoynes reports that the Indians may be going after Adrian Gonzalez, but what about Riske and Jason Davis for Kevin Mench? Throw in Jason Cooper if they want a young OF.

That's it for now, Lost is starting with that delicious Evangeline Lilly.

LOOGY on Board

The Indians' officially announced the re-signing of Scott Sauerbeck, who never even filed for Free Agency. The rationale for the Tribe is pretty obvious as Sauerbeck fills a need in a familiar place. Couple that with the idea that his now being two years removed from arm surgery should allow him to become more than just a situational lefty.

Sauerbeck's comments that the Indians' stuck with him and he wanted to reward them fall in line with those heard from Aaron Boone last year (when he extended his deal). It seems that the Indians' organization is quickly developing a reputation for taking care of players, taking chances on players, and sticking with them.

That respect is becoming a two-way street. In this time of Players vs. Management (see Owens, Terrell), the Indians actually seem to have a good relationship with most of their players. Whether that edict comes from the Dolans or it's just the way that Shapiro and his front office have decided to conduct their business - it's a welcome respite from the 25 minutes that SportsCenter devoted tonight to a malcontent. Let's hope that Howry and Millwood follow suit.

Off the soapbox, as I look more at this Sauerbeck move and hear that the Tribe is looking not only for a closer, but also a veteran set-up man, I have to wonder: Where is Arthur Rhodes in all of this? I'm assuming that he would be back next year to pitch the 8th until Cabrera was ready, but there remains a possibility that the Indians try to move Rhodes (possibly to a West Coast team to be closer to whatever problems exist at home) and pursue another set-up man.

If Rhodes (and Riske) are moved, there better be some other alternatives wearing Chief Wahoo next year that don't remind anyone of Scott Stewart and Jose Jimenez. There are young arms on the farm, but I have a feeling that Shapiro give veterans the first shot, forcing those young arms earn their way into the bullpen of 2006. Remember that it took Matt Miller getting hurt last year before Cabrera and his filthy stuff finally got the call.

While Brian Giles, Mike Sweeney, etc. will sell the papers, the bullpen and rotation remain the keys. As Justice Hill put it so eloquently in his mailbag on the official site:

I think until people realize that you don't need a roster of star players to be a good team, I'll keep getting questions about trading a boatload of talent for one aging, overpriced player (Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome fit into this category). Look at the White Sox. The priority should be on pitching, a strong bullpen, good defense and smarter production on offense.

The re-signing of Sauerbeck, though it won't make 216-420-HITS ring off the line, may be one of the most important moves of the off-season.

Jelly Belly

With the Indians’ picking up Ronnie Belliard’s option for 2006 (which had been widely assumed), the Tribe has essentially gotten almost all of their position players under contract for next year. There was some thought that Shapiro would try to rework Belliard’s deal to give him a couple of more years (similar to what they did with Boone during the season) because of the lack of legitimate 2B prospects on the farm, but something like that could certainly happen during the season.

Belliard certainly earned this contract with a career year at the plate and some sparkling D. Does anyone turn the DP faster than him? Plus it means one more year (at least) of untucked shirts, pants dragging on the ground, and our 2B playing a softball position (short outfield). The Jelly Roll is great to watch; especially when he’s wearing the vintage 1987 Oakley’s and looks like he has a tennis ball in his lower lip, tongue flapping every which way but loose.

It’s also being reported that Scott Sauerbeck is nearing a deal with the Tribe, which would be a coup to keep the veteran LOOGY in the bullpen. Signing Sauerbeck (probably with the promise of an expanded role in 2006) keeps some continuity of the fantastic bullpen of 2005.

It would also essentially mean that Rhodes, Betancourt, Cabrera, and Sauerbeck would all be under contract with decisions necessary only on closer (Wickman vs. Howry…which is kind of a big one), whether to offer Riske arbitration, and on the final bullpen spot (which can be filled by Matt Miller, Andrew Brown, Jason Davis, Kaz Tadano, etc.).

If Sauerbeck is signed, it could also signal the end of the line for the BT Boys (Traber and Tallet), whose best shot of sticking on the 25 man roster next year was as a LOOGY.

Additionally, giving Sauerbeck a one-year deal with an option year (as is being reported) means that Sauerbeck would serve as a bridge until the minors produces a quality LH reliever (a likely option would be Tony Sipp, who could follow the Fernando Cabrera arc into the bullpen in a couple of years) capable of giving the Tribe a homegrown product.

Did you ever think that the re-signing of Scott Sauerbeck could be analyzed to such an extent? These are the things that pop into my head when the gerbil gets on the wheel. Sad, but true.

Interestingly, Sports Illustrated’s Daniel Habib made some Hot Stove League predictions in the latest issue and touched on a few Indians-related matters. He’s predicting that:

• Kevin Millwood will sign with the Orioles, presumably to reunite with Leo Mazzone and to put lots of Peter Angelos money in his pockets.
• Manny will be traded back to the Indians, one of seemingly only 2 teams (the Angels being the other) that he has agreed to be traded to. Remember that he’s now a 10 and 5 guy, which means that he can veto any trade, if the destination is not a place he wants to go.
• Bob Wickman will retire at age 37.
  

The first thought on this would be, “Who in the world are we going to trade to Boston to get Manny back, and how much of his contract will they pay?” Unless Boston is content to take some package of Broussard, Phillips, Davis, and Riske with some lower level prospects included, I don’t make this deal. Yes, Manny would look great in this lineup (unbelievable in fact), but I would rather spend those dollars on Millwood. The ‘90s proved to us that a potent offense (while exciting) does not guarantee a World Series Championship. History has shown us that pitching wins championships, and I would value Millwood’s potential contributions over those of Manny (as ridiculous as his numbers have always been).

So, for those of you dusting off the #24 jerseys from the back of the closet - hold off for a while. The Red Sox would want a run-producer to replace Manny in the lineup (remember A-Rod for Soriano) and unless the Tribe gives up a great young bat (really Sizemore since DH, SS, and C are spoken for in Boston), it won’t happen. I can’t imagine Dan Shaughnessy writing a column that Casey Blake is a great fit in front of the Green Monster.

In the meantime, enjoy the emergence of the Cavaliers as a legitimate playoff team (last night’s meltdown in San Antonio notwithstanding) and the continued ruined Sundays due to ugly Browns’ losses. Is anyone else reading less and less, and caring less and less about this team? Apathy in longtime fans is not a good sign for the franchise.

Homecoming...Sort Of

With reports that the Indians have contacted Brian Giles’ agent, let’s all take a deep breath before we pencil him in at RF for 2006. It’s November 2nd. Right now, teams are just expressing interest, not even able to talk dollars with free agents that aren’t theirs until November 11th.

With the deep breath out of the way, let’s return to reality and take a look at the possibility of Giles returning to the Tribe. Reports state that Giles, a San Diego native, is looking for a 3 year deal worth around $8M-$9M per. If the Indians give him that much, it means that Millwood is pitching elsewhere next year (barring an about face from ownership on the 2006 budget). Sorry to put it that way, but it's based on more than a guess.

Giles would fit nicely into the Indians lineup, and he does have a history with the Tribe (though few outside Cleveland remember those 297 AB) and, more specifically, Mark Shapiro. Various stories on the freewheeling days of John Hart (as he traded top prospects for the likes of Kevin Seitzer, John Smiley, Ricardo Rincon, and Dave Burba...nothing against Slurva) paint a vivid picture of Shapiro, then the Director of Minor League Operations, banging the table against the trade of Giles for Ricardo Rincon.

Giles does have that relationship with Shapiro, with his minor league years mirroring those of Shapiro. And he is familiar with Cleveland and Jacobs Field (which would help his overall numbers after a few years at Petco Park), so the possibility is out there.

Whether this is just talk or there is something to this remains to be seen, but it brings up an interesting question: If Giles (or another veteran LH run-producer is signed) where does he hit in the lineup? Does he hit 6th behind Victor, leaving 7, 8, & 9 as (probable) RH bats? Or does he work his way into the top, which risks disrupting the emerging force that is the first five spots in that lineup? If this does happen, it will be interesting to see how the Atomic one handles it.

But those are questions for another day as we are still at the beginning of November and the Cavaliers season is starting on TV.

Oh, before Ronnie Duncan deafens me for the first time, ESPN has the Tribe ranked #1 in their first 2006 Power Rankings. Not bad for some has-beens and a couple of never-will-bes.

Tomahawks

Some quick hits to cover the last few happenings in the Teepee:

• The Indians signed Ramon Vazquez to a one-year deal, officially eliminating any chance of Brandon Phillips playing for the Tribe next season. With the Tribe certain to pick up Belliard's option, Peralta entrenched at SS, and Phillips out of options expect Phillips to be packaged as part of some trade (major or minor). It's too bad that things never worked out for Phillips here, but his Felix Ferminesque play never really caught up to his Hall of Fame ego. Despite the fact that the primary prospect (Phillips) in the Colon deal never panned out, two out of three ain't bad.
• Signing Vazquez means that 2 spots remain open for position players. With Casey Blake likely to fill either RF, 1B, or a Utility position (comparable to what Jose Hernandez did last year), Shapiro can really survey the landscape for those spots and not have to worry about a backup catcher or anything else, position-playerwise.
• Millwood, Elarton, Howry, and Wickman all filed for Free Agency. Remember that last year Elarton never filed, opting instead to just re-sign with the Tribe. His filing does seem to indicate that he will at least test the FA waters. Plus, didn't Wickman say that the only place he wanted to play in 2006 (if he did play) was Cleveland? And he files on the first day? Curious.
• Cliff Lee underwent hernia surgery, but should be fully recovered by Spring Training. Lee can probably also expect to be approached about a long-term contract this offseason as the Tribe will try to lock up the young southpaw.
• Ryan Garko (whom the luminaries at the PD has deemed unfit to play until midseason of next year) is getting hits in the Arizona Fall League (as Phifer says) like Kid Capri makes tapes. Interesting poll on the official site:
  Who would you like to see start at first base for the Indians next season?
  Incumbent Ben Broussard 340 votes (14%)
  Rookie Ryan Garko 551 votes (23%)
  Free agent Paul Konerko 1269 votes (53%)
  Free agent Kevin Millar 127 votes (5%)
  Free agent J.T. Snow 124 votes (5%)
• Does anyone else see a combination of Ryan Garko and J.T. Snow as the hidden meaning in this poll?

The World Series matchup (and all the playoff games really) proved that the success in the postseason begins and ends with pitching. The White Sox won the championship with position players that (overall) most would think to be equal to, or on par with, the Indians. Chicago got great pitching, overcame their toughest competition from the Indians, and got some lucky breaks and calls on their way to the trophy. The Astros went to the Series with players like Mike Lamb and Chris Burke in their lineup because their pitching staff was able to shut down a potent Cardinals' offense.
I think watching the playoffs should only reinforce the belief that the Indians (with their strong pitching) should continue to focus on putting together a strong staff on the big league level, while cultivating an excess of arms on the farm. Sure, it would be great to add big time run-producers like Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez to the Indians; but last I checked they were both watching the World Series at home, just like Ben Broussard and Casey Blake. Baseball is about pitching, then pitching, and finally pitching. Luckily for Indians' fans, Mark Shapiro and his staff seem to understand that and prioritize it accordingly.

Heard it Here First

From an actual post on the DiaTribe from June 12th by serial poster Cy Slapnicka, in a mocking reference to one man’s opinion of how long the White Sox could keep their winning up:

"Seriously, how long can the White Sox keep this up?”
-The DiaTriber during Game 6 of the 2005 World Series

Maybe not Game 6, but we should ask Nostradamus who he's got winning Super Bowl XL.

Playing Some “9” Ball

Using the criteria that the Indians are looking for in a RF – a veteran hitter, preferably right handed, who can be placed in the lineup (either behind Hafner or behind Martinez) to give the Tribe another run-producer – this is what I’ve come up with. I’ve ranked them in terms of productivity, not necessarily availablility.
1) Pat Burrell - .281 – 32 – 117 - .892
We said that we are looking for a run-producing RH outfielder and Burrell is certainly that. The reason he may be available is the Jim Thome/Ryan Howard situation in Philly. Thome, unless he is traded, is only capable of playing 1B; leading to speculation that Ryan Howard could be moved to the outfield. Burrell’s contract (about $7.5M for the next few years) isn’t too outlandish and he can hit, but the Phillies would be looking for a heck of a lot more than Jason Davis and Brandon Phillips for Pat the Bat. They’d probably ask for Lee, or at least Westbrook and some prime prospects. Another downside to Burrell is an alleged attitude problem or “lack of heart” (so says Larry Bowa), but the same was said of Scott Rolen when he was in Philly, and he seemed to be OK once out of the glare of the Philly press.
2) Bobby Abreu - .286 – 24 – 102 - .879
See above for the reason that Abreu may be available, though it’s very unlikely. Abreu is a serious masher, who may be beyond what the Indians are looking for. Don’t get me wrong, his numbers would look good in the lineup, but at $13+M for the next couple of years, I don’t see Shapiro taking much interest in Abreu.
3) Cliff Floyd - .273 – 34 – 98 - .863
With the Mets most likely playing Victor Diaz in RF and with their top prospect Lastings Milledge on the cusp of the Majors, Cliff Floyd might be available. His OPS and run-producing bat would look awfully good in the Tribe lineup. He is LH, but his $6.5M salary makes him a more than palatable. The Mets aren’t likely to just give Floyd away (particularly with two largely unproven commodities as their corner outfielders as the alternatives), but I’m just trying to give an idea of middle-of-the order hitters that may be out there.

As a sidebar as we move on, now do we understand the problem of “just going out and getting that big RH bat”? Last time I checked, Pujols, Sheffield, and Chipper aren’t exactly available.

4) Kevin Mench - .264 – 25 – 73 - .797
The departure of John Hart leaves some uncertainty in Arlington, as it remains to be seen if new GM Jon Daniels (who is 28, by the way) is from the John Hart Knock ‘Em Sock ‘Em, Worry About Pitching Later school, or if he actually values pitching. The Rangers are stacked in their infield with hitting and seem content to go with David Delucci and Gary Matthews in OF (with prospect Adrian Gonzalez possibly getting a look).
That leaves Mench as the potential trade bait to bring in some pitching to a team that counts Chris Young as their ace going into 2006. The Rangers are sure to overpay for some FA pitcher (A.J. Burnett?) whose contract will replace Chan Ho Park’s as the albatross around the team’s neck, but they need depth, in both their rotation and bullpen. This may be the ideal trade partner for the Tribe, with a history of similar trades (pitching for hitting) on the books. Although, with the fleecing of Travis Hafner for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz, I wonder if Daniels would be gun-shy.
The Rangers might be interested in a combination of David Riske, Jason Davis, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Tallet, Billy Traber, Kaz Tadano, and lower level pitching prospects to fortify their weak pitching staff.
Mench has been rumored in the past to be on Shapiro’s radar, and though he is arbitration eligible, he made $345K this past year, which would fit in nicely to the budget. Even if the Tribe were to give him a Victor/Hafner type deal (with less years), it would be a coup to put the 28-year-old RH Mench in the 5 spot, between Pronk and the Stick, for the next few years.
5) Mike Cameron - .273 – 12 – 39 - .819
With Cameron not even guaranteed a starting job for next year (thanks to the emergence of Victor Diaz), Cameron could probably be gotten on the cheap from the Mets, looking to unload his $7+M salary. The two-time Gold Glover’s defense has never been questioned (except perhaps by Carlos Beltran’s face one afternoon last year), but his offensive numbers drastically declined last year. That being said, a return to the AL might do some good for him. He did hit 30 HR with 80 RBI in 2004, so he may just need to be placed in the right situation. On the downside, he tends to be a windmill, averaging 152 K’s per year (Blake, who always seemed to be whiffing, had only 116 last year for comparison’s sake), and he doesn’t always necessarily hit for average (.249 career hitter).
6) Wily Mo Pena - .254 – 19 – 51 - .796 (in 311 AB)
See the Sean Casey analysis for why Wily Mo may be available for the right package this offseason. The 23-year-old certainly has power (with 51 HR in 830 AB), but, again his K totals (averages 154 a season) and his average (.248 lifetime hitter) remind us that with power potential, there are always drawbacks and risks. His salary of $440K is certainly attractive, and he may blossom when surrounded by a talented lineup and regular AB, but the Reds have been known to ask for the moon and the stars in trade negotiations. In their eyes, C.C. for Wily Mo might be an even trade. Also, the youngster Pena is certainly not the veteran presence that has been clamored for.
Interestingly, similar hitters to Pena through the age of 23 in history include Jesse Barfield, Rocky Colavito, Harmon Killebrew…Pete Incaviglia and Dave Kingman. This is one where Shapiro better have a pretty thick folio from scouts, full of glowing reviews, before making a move on Wily Mo. If he did, however, make no mistake that I would be the first online to order a jersey with WILY MO on the back.
7) Austin Kearns - .240 – 18 – 67 - .785 (in 387 AB)
See the Sean Casey/Wily Mo analysis for why Kearns may be available (if the Reds ever thought that decent pitching would help their cause), and he may be more attractive than Pena because of his consistency. Despite a lousy 2005 (by his standards), Kearns has averaged 24 HR, 95 RBI, a .266 BA, and a .821 OPS for his career. Like most on this list he swings and misses too much (average of 145 K’s per 162 games), but the 25-year-old may be just what the Tribe lineup is in need of: a solid RH bat who can produce runs and serve as a bridge between Hafner and the Stick in the lineup. As stated above, the Reds may ask for a lot to acquire Kearns (Gammons reported that the Reds were looking for 3-4 Major League ready prospects when Kearns was DEMOTED in the middle of the season!), but the young pitching depth of the Tribe may be enough to pry Kearns loose.
I believe that he is arbitration eligible (playing for $930K), but see the Mench analysis for how Shapiro would likely handle that dilemma. After Mench, I would say that Kearns might be the best fit for the Tribe. He may not bring the WOW factor of a bigger name, but he may go further than that bigger name in the solidification of the lineup.
8) Jay Gibbons - .277 – 26 – 79 - .833
Despite the fact that he looks like Sloth from The Goonies (OK, that was mean), Gibbons is a consistent hitter with some nice power numbers. He averages 27 HR and 89 RBI per season, without the gaudy K numbers (only 84 a season); so he actually might be a nice option. Whether he’s available from the O’s (with new VP Mike Flanagan in charge) will depend on where the Orioles decide to waste their money this off-season (Let’s see Sammy Sosa? No we tried that…Sidney Ponson? No, we tried that too) and if Gibbons is deemed worthy of playing in Camden by Peter Angelos. Though he is LH, he would fit nicely into the lineup behind the Stick, ahead of Jelly Belliard.
9) Aubrey Huff - .261 – 22 – 92 - .749
The crowded outfield in Tampa Bay becomes more crowded with the return of Rocco Baldelli and the imminent promotion of Delmon Young. Factor in Carl Crawford, Joey Gaithright, Jonny Gomes, and Damien Hollins PLUS the possibility that B.J. Upton may end up in the outfield, and it’s plain to see that Huff is not long for the Tampa Bay outfield. Huff, a LH, has averaged 26 HR and 96 RBI over his 6 MLB seasons, and his strikeout numbers (average of about 85) make Huff an attractive option. His reasonable $4.9M salary and versatility may move Huff onto the short list, but the possibility remains that the Rays could keep Huff as a 1B. The Rays need more pitching and a package of some young talented arms could pry Huff out of Florida.
10) Trot Nixon - .275 –13 – 67 - .804
Last season’s numbers don’t exactly dazzle (nor do his 2004 numbers), but Nixon is a solid RF whose numbers average 23 HR and 88 RBI. Whether his career is on the downswing, or if he’s worth $7.5M per would be the questions. He is 31, so his best days could be behind him, but his grittiness and experience could play out well on the young Indians. The Red Sox are sure to shake some things up, calling up some talented youngsters and signing some big FA’s, so Nixon could be available. The Red Sox could use some bullpen help and some young arms to groom for the rotation. Does that sound like Riske and Davis?

For comparison’s sake:
Casey Blake - .241 – 23 – 58 – .746

So, again, what are the options presented to the Tribe in RF? Here would be my Plan A and contingency plans

Plan A: Sign a Right-handed RF
Place into lineup behind Hafner, in front of Martinez. The order in which I would pursue the players listed above (based on productivity and availability, or what it would take to get them) would be:
Mench
Kearns
Burrell
Pena
Cameron

Plan B: Sign a Left-handed RF
Place into lineup behind Martinez, in front of Belliard. The order in which I would pursue the players listed above (based on productivity and availability, or what it would take to get them) would be:
Gibbons
Huff
Floyd
Abreu
Nixon

Plan C: Play Casey Blake
And pray that 2005 was an aberration, rather than a true indication of the player that he is. Remember that Blake hit 28 HR with 88 RBI in 2004, so he may have just needed to work out some kinks…or 2005 exposed him as something else: just a solid big leaguer, not good enough to merit a spot in a big league lineup every day.

I think it’s fairly obvious that the answer in RF for 2006 lies outside the Indians. With the only attractive FA outfielders being Giles, Sanders, and maybe Juan Encarnacion, the RF will probably come via a trade.

If I missed anyone on the trade options list, let me know. It’s difficult to determine what each and every team is thinking going into the off-season, but the players listed above have a better than average shot of being available.

Next, we’ll take a look at trade bait that the Tribe can throw into the water of trade talks, like the chum of Shark Week going after the Great White.

Farewell, Hal

Hal Lebovitz passed away today, at the age of 89.
The "Man in the Know" was the grandfather of Cleveland sportswriting.

It is a loss for all of Cleveland sports fans.

Getting to First Base

With the FA’s available not exactly knocking anyone’s socks off, let’s take a look at what could be available in the trade market for 1B (in order of preference):
1) Lyle Overbay - .276 – 19 – 72 - .816
With Prince Fielder ready for the majors, Overbay will probably be stroking doubles somewhere other than Miller Park in 2006. Honestly, though, he may be only a slightly better version of Broussard, a gap LH hitter with a nifty glove. Is it worth giving up prospects for another Broussard?
2) Sean Casey - .312 – 9 – 58 - .795
There WILL be an odd man out at SOME point in Cincinnati with Griffey, Dunn, Casey, Kearns, and Pena all fighting to play 4 positions. If this is the year, the Tribe may have an interest in the odd man. Casey, a Tribe product would probably like to return to the North Coast, but is he that much of an upgrade, with his dwindling power numbers? Or will the Reds continue to inexplicably hold onto too many position players, while their pitching staff continues to struggle?
3) Shea Hillenbrand - .291 – 18 – 82 - .792
Whether Hillenbrand is on the block or not remains to be seen. With the Blue Jays new ownership wanting to make some splashes in the FA market, they’re unlikely to move an established player. I put Hillenbrand on this list to compare an “established major leaguer” to the numbers that Broussard put up (shown below and in less at bats) in 2005.
4) Tino Martinez - .241 – 17 – 49 - .767 (in 303 AB)
Tino, if he decides not to retire, would fit the bill of a veteran presence in the lineup and the clubhouse that many decried as lacking in the final week of the season. With the Yankees likely to pick up his 2006 team option as insurance against another “tumor” attacking Giambi’s pituitary (what would cause that?), he probably won’t be available (why would they pick up his option only to trade him?) but this might be the kind of player added to the Tribe for the 2006 season, much like Easy Eddie Murray and El Presidente brought some veteran savvy to a very talented 1994 team for the 1995 campaign.
5) Matt LeCroy - .260 – 17 – 50 - .798 (in 304 AB)
LeCroy is a nice stick (and looks a lot like Wickman), but his glovework at first (or lack thereof) would probably prevent LeCroy from donning the Chief in 2006.

For comparison’s sake:
Broussard - .255 – 19 – 68 - .771

So, what are the options presented to the Tribe? Here would be my Plan A and contingency plans:
Plan A: Platoon Broussard & Garko
Terry Pluto called Garko the best young hitter in the organization, putting him in a class with the likes of Sean Casey, The Stick, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez as great homegrown hitters. He said that the ball jumped off of Garko’s bat at AA Akron much in the same way that it did with the aforementioned players.
Keeping both Broussard and Garko allows Garko to take a break against tough RH pitchers as he adjusts to the majors and gives the Tribe some insurance (Broussard) if Garko fails to make the transition to 1B, not to mention a late-inning defensive replacement. All indications in the Arizona Fall League are that Garko’s hitting in the minors is far from an aberration and his glove may be adequate. As the year progresses, if Garko proves himself to be a competent major leaguer, Broussard can always be moved.
Plan B: Platoon Broussard & Blake
Ugh.
Plan C: Plug Acquisition (see above) into #6 hole
None of the names above excite me enough to merit trading some prospects for what may or may not be much of an offensive upgrade.

I think that the organization is high enough on Garko and realizes that Broussard is not the “lost cause” that many people think because of his streakiness to go with Plan A as listed above.

Broussard is certainly not the long-term answer, but may serve as a bridge to Garko, much like Paul Sorrento did in the mid-90s, until the young Stanford grad gets comfortable enough to establish himself as another “core player” for the Tribe.

Next up, the trade options that may be out there for RF, the most likely spot for that “Big Bat” to solidify the lineup.

122 days until pitchers and catchers report. After Sunday’s debacle in Baltimore (thanks go out to the Baltimoran for taking his patented “jinx” to the game), it’s time to start the countdown.

A Good Listen

Terry Pluto's thoughts on the 2006 Tribe are available through a podcast. As usual, his comments are well-thought-out and take all the factors into consideration when discussing the off-season and the 2006 season.

Going Shopping

Available Free Agents with 2005 Stats:
First Base / BA / HR / RBI / OPS
Paul Konerko / .283 / 40 / 100 / .909
Tony Clark / .304 / 30 / 87 / 1.002
Dmitri Young (TO) / .271 / 21 / 72 / .796
Travis Lee / .272 / 12 / 49 / .757
Kevin Millar / .272 / 9 / 50 / .754
J.T. Snow / .275 / 4 / 40 / .708

Ben Broussard / .255 / 19 / 68 / .771

The drop-off is obviously pretty big after Konerko, with Tony Clark (who the D-Backs did a favor by signing this past year) rating as the second best 1B available. Somebody (hopefully not the Tribe) will overpay for Clark because of his 2005 campaign, one which is not likely to be duplicated. The Tigers hold a team option on DaMeatHook, though I’m not sure he would work in Cleveland because of his poor fielding. Lee and Snow represent two veteran players who are good defenders who can spell a 1B who may be a defensive liability (Garko).

It’s interesting to see how our boy Benny stacks up against this list - not too badly. Though his streakiness causes many headaches, Broussard is a solid defender and did knock in nearly 70 runs, not facing left handed pitching. I’m not saying he’s the answer, but brace yourself (because Konerko is likely to command top dollar, probably from the ChiSox) for the possibility that he may be back in a platoon with either Garko or Blake at 1B. What this FA list essentially tells us is that the answer at 1B isn’t on the FA market. The solution will come either via trade or from within.

Outfield / BA / HR / RBI / OPS
Brian Giles / .301 / 15 / 83 / .906
Reggie Sanders / .271 / 21 / 54 / .886
Juan Encarnacion / .287 / 16 / 76 / .796
Jacque Jones / .249 / 23 / 73 / .757
Preston Wilson / .261 / 10 / 43 / .772
Jay Payton (TO) / .267 / 18 / 63 / .769
Jeff Conine / .304 / 3 / 33 / .777

Casey Blake / .241 / 23 / 58 / .746

A couple of nice names at the top of this list, though Giles and Sanders are unlikely to leave San Diego and St. Louis, where they’ve grown comfortable. I would love to see Reggie Sanders come to Cleveland on a 1-2 year contract, but I think that the Redbirds will get the first shot at him. It’s also not likely that Giles would leave a comfortable situation in Southern California, unless the money is REALLY right. Encarnacion, Jones, Wilson (though he was hurt), and the others may not be that much of an upgrade over our Iowa farmboy. There certainly isn’t that “big RH stick” here that will miraculously solve all of the Tribe’s problems.

Shapiro has recently been talking up Blake as an adequate #9 hitter, hitting 20+ HR and knocking in some runs. So much so, that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Casey keep a starting role (1B or RF) or become a “super-sub” playing nearly every day. Again, like at 1B, the immediate answer doesn’t jump off the page at you.

Starting Pitcher / W-L / ERA / IP / WHIP / BAA
Kevin Millwood (R) / 9-11 / 2.86 / 192.0 / 1.22 / .300
Paul Byrd (R) / 12-11 / 3.74 / 204.1 / 1.19 / .301
Matt Morris (R) / 14-10 / 4.11 / 192.2 / 1.28 / .315
Jeff Weaver (R) / 14-11 / 4.22 / 224.0 / 1.17 / .305
Jamie Moyer (L) / 13-7 / 4.28 / 200.0 / 1.39 / .331
Esteban Loaiza (MO) (R) / 12-10 / 3.77 / 217.0 / 1.30 / .318
Scott Elarton (R) / 11-9 / 4.61 / 181.2 / 1.30 / .315
Jason Johnson (R) / 8-13 / 4.54 / 210.0 / 1.34 / .328
Brett Tomko (R) / 8-15 / 4.48 / 190.2 / 1.37 / .329
Joe Mays (R) / 6-10 / 5.65 / 156.0 / 1.56 / .361

Also Available:
A.J. Burnett (R) / 12-12 / 3.44 / 209.0 / 1.26 / .312
Jarrod Washburn (L) / 8-8 / 3.20 / 177.1 / 1.33 / .330
Kenny Rogers (L) / 14-8 / 3.46 / 195.1 / 1.32 / .323
Tony Armas Jr. (R) / 7-7 / 4.97 / 101.1 / 1.52 / .355
Ted Lilly (L) / 10-11 / 5.56 / 126.1 / 1.53 / .348

The thinness of this list has a two-fold effect on me:

1) It makes the Indians’ efforts to re-sign Millwood that much more important because of the limited number of impact pitchers available through FA this off-season.

2) It makes me think that the market for Millwood (who is clearly the best available pitcher) is going to spiral out of control in a hurry.

Don’t you think that the Yankees and Red Sox (or even teams like the Blue Jays and Tigers who are looking to spend money this off-season) are sharpening their pencils right now to get a shot at Kevin Millwood? What’s their alternative? Jason Johnson or Matt Morris? Burnett and Rogers (attitude), Washburn, Armas, and Lilly (injuries) don’t interest me. But neither do Tomko, Johnson, and Mays (performance)! That leaves 7 attractive starting pitchers hitting the market at a time when (as always) pitching is at a premium.

All it takes is one team. We learned that with Manny and the Sawx and Thome and the Phils. All it takes is one team wanting to make a splash or wanting to “send a signal to their fans” to take Millwood out of Cleveland. Either that, or The Boss sinking another $40M into the pinstripes.

The alternatives, were Millwood not to sign, would be to lock up Byrd or Moyer (or even Loaiza) to a 2 year deal or go after Elarton (who is eminently signable). Let the Tigers go after Matt Morris (more damaged goods to join Percival and Ordonez) and let Weaver stay on the West Coast. Bottom line, the FA starting pitching market all starts with Millwood, and we should hope that the Tribe is in on those discussions to the bitter end.

LOOGY /G / IP / ERA / BA vs. LH
Chris Hammond / 55 / 58.2 / 3.84 / .164
Mike Myers / 65 / 37.1 / 3.13 / .158
Scott Sauerbeck / 58 / 35.2 / 4.04 / .162
Terry Mulholland / 49 / 59.0 / 4.27 / .202
Mike Stanton / 59 / 42.2 / 4.64 / .235
Buddy Groom / 47 / 41.0 / 4.83 / .244
Joey Eischen / 57 / 36.1 / 3.22 / .250
David Weathers (TO) / 73 / 77.2 / 3.94 / .265

The ever-popular LOOGY (Lefthanded One Out GuY) is one that is usually the last to be filled, but can have dire consequences (see Paul Assenmacher vs. Scott Stewart). The Tribe may fill this one from a bunch of LH arms in the minors (Tallet, Traber, Stanford, Zerbe, etc.) because players like Hammond and Sauerbeck like to pitch in the NL, where their role is expanded. An interesting name on the list is Terry Mulholland, who is a former Featherhead. Despite the fact that he’s probably 55, he can be used in the role of a LOOGY or of an innings eater.

Closer / S / ERA / WHIP / BAA
Bob Wickman / 45 / 2.47 / 1.26 / .310
Bob Howry / 3 / 2.47 / 0.89 / .237
Trevor Hoffman / 43 / 2.97 / 1.11 / .274
Billy Wagner / 38 / 1.51 / 0.84 / .229
B.J. Ryan (L) / 36 / 2.43 / 1.14 / .284
Braden Looper (TO) / 28 / 3.94 / 1.47 / .345
Todd Jones / 40 / 2.10 / 1.03 / .276
Mike Timlin / 13 / 2.24 / 1.32 / .319
Tom Gordon / 2 / 2.57 / 1.09 / .272

As I’ve said before, the dominoes on this one all start with Wickman. If Wickman wants to come back, you weigh signing him vs. signing Howry vs. bringing someone else in. If Wickman wants to retire, you weigh re-signing Howry vs. going after a B.J. Ryan or Tom Gordon (who are still going to cost a ton, in guaranteed years and money). Only one thing is for certain: the closer next year will have closer experience. Shapiro has gone on record that he would not give the closer role to someone who has never closed before.
But it all starts with the Sticky One.

The Free Agent period is always a kind of poker game, but expect Shapiro to bring some serious chips to the table to bring continuity and strength (again) to the pitching staff. The offensive help will probably come through other avenues.

Next we’ll take a look at players who may be available via trade for these same positions (with one of the offensive needs likely being filled via trade) and what players on the Indians’ roster may be expendable or attractive to a trade partner.

Enjoy the playoffs, where I’m throwing my weight behind the Cardinals (though we all saw what 150 lbs., soaking wet, did for the Tribe this season).

A Look Back Before the Look Ahead

With the October rain falling on the North Coast, it presents a good opportunity to look at that main cog of the off-season – Free Agency. To look at Free Agency, I thought it might be best to take a look back at the past off-season to gauge Shapiro’s success and see if it lends any clues as to the direction of the team entering the 2006 season. Here’s a comparative look at the FA’s that Shapiro considered (or the player the Indians ultimately used in certain spots, namely OF – Grady/Blake instead of Gonzalez – and SS):

Player W-L ERA WHIP BAA
Millwood 9-11 2.86 1.22 .248
Clement 13-6 4.57 1.36 .260
Lieber 17-13 4.20 1.21 .263

Again, the list shows that Shapiro had the right FA pitchers targeted in the off-season, and essentially hit the jackpot by giving Millwood a one-year, incentive-laden deal. Clement’s season took a nosedive after getting hit in the head by a line drive, while Lieber proved to be a steady presence in the Phillies rotation all year long.

I would expect Shapiro’s targets (in case Millwood moves on, of course) would be similar to a Clement or Lieber, in that they would be expected to play a large role in the stabilizaition of the pitching staff for 2006 and beyond. The FA starting pitching crop is thin, but we’ll look at that in a future post.

Player S ERA WHIP BAA
Wickman 45 2.47 1.26 .247
Benitez 19 4.50 1.37 .229
Percival 8 5.76 1.20 .207
Hermanson 34 2.04 1.10 .222

There can’t be much debate on the prudence of re-signing Wickman for 2005. Though most people thought that giving Benitez or Percival a long-term deal seemed like a safer bet, that couldn’t have been further from the truth. The fact that San Francisco and Detroit are stuck with their perpetually injured closers, while the Indians maintained the flexibility with a one-year deal with Wickman (plus getting the best results) is hard to argue against. I threw Hermanson in here because his name was bandied about as insurance for Wickman. It turns out that Howry was more than adequate in that role.

Where Shapiro goes in this spot for 2006 becomes a set of dominoes, set to fall once it’s determined whether Wickman will return. After that determination, the Indians will go through a check-list to fill that back end of the bullpen and hope for a repeat of 2005.

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Sizemore .289 22 81 .832
Blake .241 23 58 .746
Alou .321 19 63 .918
Burnitz .258 24 87 .757

I wasn’t sure whether to include Grady or Casey in this comparison, since Grady was called up initially when Gonzo got hurt in Spring Training, but would have been called up once the deficiencies of Casey Blake reared their ugly head. There’s no question that Sizemore is the best player on this list (at 23, no less). In fact, Tom Verducci ranked Sizemore 6th in his MVP race in the latest issue of SI (Pronk was 3rd).

The RF position will be the most intriguing of the off-season, as I expect Ryan Garko (who is one of 6 Tribe prospects to hit the Arizona Fall League) to be given every opportunity to win the 1B job in Spring Training. Whether that means Bono Broussard is non-tendered or not, I’m not sure.
But back to RF – Blake certainly isn’t the answer, which means that the Indians will target an OF with a big stick to shore up the bottom part of the lineup, either via FA or trade..

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Peralta .292 24 78 .886
Omar .271 3 45 .691

Any questions?


So, after looking at the almost universal success of the past off-season, we can only hope that it serves as a harbinger of things to come in this off-season. We all know the decisions to be made and the holes to be filled, so next we’ll take a look at what’s available – first through FA, then through possible trades. I wish I could figure out how to put a table in this blog so the stats aren't so confusing.

Also, I’ll compile the 1st Annual Tabbies (in honor of Pat Tabler) to recognize some of the top performers of the 2005 Indians’ season.

Some new links on the Baseball Sites Section of the sidebar dealing with MLB contracts. The Hardball Dollars link is especially interesting.

Welcome to the 6 months of the year when living in Ohio is like living inside a dirty milk carton – always cloudy.

Wait 'Til Next Year

As much as I hate those four words, that’s what we have to look forward to after Sunday. And, there is quite a bit to look forward to. This young Indians team took some huge steps this year, finishing the season with 93 games, and narrowly missing the playoffs. So, despite the hanging heads in the picture, there’s a lot of talent and potential here (particularly with the four players pictured).

By the way, the Red Sox just took it on the chin from the AL Central Champion. Feel any better about the weekend? Me neither. But I digress.

The “core” that was talked about for so long has not only taken shape in one season, but the cement has started to harden.

“Core” position players under the Indians control for at least next year include: Vic, Grady, Pronk, Coco, and Jhonny. That happens to be 5 out of the 9 players in the lineup, and also happens to be the top 5 in the batting order. Throw in Boone and Belliard (whose option may not just be picked up, but may be negotiated for a longer deal with the Brandon Phillips situation as it is) as complementary players and you’re looking at a strong team. The weaknesses, as has been mentioned here since about June are 1B and RF, but more on that later. The strength of this team is the youthful talent converging at the right time to create a very competitive offensive team.
“Core” pitchers under the Indians control for at least next year include: C.C., Lee, Westbrook, Betancourt, and Cabrera. Obviously, the holes and needs are bigger and more obvious with the pitching staff, but Shapiro did one whale of a job this past off-season, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t do it again. The rotation needs to be filled in and the back end of the bullpen needs to be finalized, but the maturity and growth that C.C., Lee, and Jake showed as starters this year were above and beyond most expectations.

With all of these positives on the table, it’s time to look at the question marks, in order of importance to the 2006 incarnation of the Indians:
1) Is Kevin Millwood’s health bankable enough to be given a 3 to 4 year deal?
Millwood proved his worth his weight in gold by winning the AL ERA title and, more importantly, teaching the Indians’ young starters how to prepare to pitch, how to handle adversity, and how to be professionals. Shapiro will make a pitch to Woody, but the question is whether the Indians will guarantee a 3rd or 4th year in a contract that will probably be worth $8-$10 million per. The track record shows that the Indians will lean heavily on the advice of their medical and training staff (they thankfully wouldn’t guarantee the latter years of Thome’s deal because of health concerns), but the re-signing of Millwood would be a big boost to the fan base. It’s the age-old question: Do we do what’s popular or what makes sense? Shapiro has shown that he does what he thinks makes the most sense. ESPN.com is reporting that the Tribe is planning on offering a long-term deal, so priority #1 may be resolved, for better or worse, relatively soon.
2) If Millwood is not brought back, what do the Indians do with Scott Elarton?
The FA starting pitching market is dreadfully thin, so if the Tribe misses on Millwood, they may sign Scott Elarton (his agent is Shapiro’s father) and throw a young gun (Carmona, Sowers, Davis, or Guthrie) into the mix as the fifth starter. Regardless of who the Indians sign (Millwood, Elarton, or another FA), I think that their fifth starter will be a rookie, to break him in with the hopes that he would progress along the same path as Lee and Sabathia did. Scott Elarton was a nice pitcher for the Indians this year and would come at a reasonable price, but the preference (obviously) is to sign Millwood, thank Elarton for his performance in 2005, and wish him congratulations on the 2006 payday he earned himself.
3) What About Bob?
The Indians bullpen decisions start with which Bob to sign (Wickman or Howry) as both will command closer money on the open market. We all saw last year how an unsettled back end of the pen can destroy a team early in the season. If Wickman wants to return, and according to MLB.com, he does, Shapiro will probably give him another 1-year deal and slot the rest of the bullpen accordingly. If Sticky wants to go the northern woods of Wisconsin to live the High Life, Howry will be approached with a 2 to 3 year deal with closer money involved. Once the closer role is determined, look for Rhodes, Cabrera, and Betancourt to slot in accordingly in the 6th, 7th, and 8th. Andrew Brown, Riske (if he’s not traded), Matt Miller (if he’s healthy), Jason Davis, and Kaz Tadano will battle to join a left-handed specialist (probably not Sauerbeck) to fill out the pen. But, as we learned in 2004, you start in the back of the bullpen and work your way up.
4) Which of the Filler B’s is Gone?
The lack of offense from 1B (Broussard/Hernandez) and RF (Blake) proved to be magnified in the final week of the season, causing the seemingly apparent to become painfully obvious. With Boone and Belliard in the fold for 2006, one of those positions will be upgraded via FA or trade. Looking at the available FA at both positions and the prospects at those same positions, the Indians can play this a couple of ways. They can platoon Broussard and Ryan Garko (who has just mashed in the minors) at 1B, and acquire a RF via FA or trade, allowing Blake to fill the Jose Hernandez role for 2006. They can package Broussard (with Riske and Brandon Phillips?) for a RF and bring in a veteran 1B (J.T. Snow?) to push Garko in Spring Training. They can sign or acquire a big bat at 1B (Konerko, Overbay) and let Blake play another year, until Brad Snyder or Franklin Gutierrez are ready. They can sign or acquire a big bat at RF (Encarnacion, Floyd, Mench, Trot Nixon, Giles, Jacque Jones) and hand Garko the 1B job. And so on, and so on. There are a lot of possibilities for these two positions. The one certainty is that on Opening Day 2006 you won’t see Broussard at first AND Blake in right.
5) Which Prospects become the Grady and Jhonny of 2006 and which ones are expendable for trades?
Hot Prospects: Andrew Brown, Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, and Ryan Garko
Expendable: Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie

Those are the questions off of the top of my head for the off-season. There’s more, but The Office is about to start and, with the Tribe season over, I can finally enjoy Arrested Development, The Office, and Lost when they happen on not via TiVo.

For those of you who thought that The DiaTribe would take an offseason, realize this: There is no offseason - unless your name is Alan Trammell, Jack McKeon, Jim Tracy, or John Hart.

I’ll try to convince one of the most passionate Cavalier fans that I know (he owns a Mark Price old school jersey) to start one of these forums for the Wine and Gold. As soon as he is convinced, I’ll pass along the address, as long as the DiaTribe remains the active and passionate forum that it has become over its inaugural season. Thanks for a great season and let’s enjoy the offseason.