Two Game Tomahawks

Attempting to hold off on any wild overreactions from the to two games played to date, it is not a stretch to say that Carmona walking the first two batters of his start put a pit in my stomach that I feared would be there until October or so. With Carmona eventually settling in (to a degree) and the offense finally scoring some runs (which is either a condemnation of the lineup or an indication that the White Sox rotation may be pretty good), let’s get going on some Tommies.

Before we do, realize that this is the most difficult part of the season to actually glean anything from because everything is under the magnifying glass and while Jake Westbrook’s control simply wasn’t there and Jenny Lewis looked like the “Stomp” of old, we’re talking about drawing conclusions on 18 innings of baseball and if this were the NFL, we’d be sitting on about 4 minutes left in the first quarter of the first game.

While that attempts to put some perspective on the marathon that the MLB season has become, let’s finally let the ‘Hawks loose…
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What was it that was said all Spring about the importance of a long man to this team, particularly in the early going, with The Babyfaced Bulldog eventually drawing the short straw in the rotation “battle” and heading out to the bullpen?

With the uncertainty in the starting rotation, some thought that it was kind of an important role, right?
Not that anything can really be taken from a couple of games, but Laffey proved his worth to the team as long man almost immediately, relieving an obviously out-of-whack Westbrook to stop the bleeding in Monday’s opener. Given the uncertain nature (and that’s putting it kindly) of the Indians’ rotation, there’s a very real possibility that the role that Laffey finds himself in could be the most valuable on the team in the early going if the Indians are going to have any hope of getting out to the fast start that they have deemed to be so important. He followed that up with a crucial 1 1/3 innings in a 1-run game as the LHP out of the pen, meaning that Laffey has been used both in mop-up work and with a lead.

What does all that mean in the context of the idea that Laffey could eventually move back to the rotation?
Back in the early-90s (not to go too far back on you) when the Indians had a young, burgeoning offense and a pitching staff full of question marks, guys like Rod Nichols and Tom Kramer played the role of the swing man on those teams. The swing man would appear between 30 and 40 times and start around 10 to 15 of those games, accumulating about 120 innings over the course of the season in their dual role. If that’s what Laffey’s role boils down to, are there many other players or roles that would be as vital to maintaining some semblance of consistency on this particular pitching staff? Even if he evolves into a dependable 6th or 7th inning reliever, are those not in short order as well for the club?

While Aaron Laffey’s future should be brighter than what Nichols and Kramer turned out to be (and the fact that he doesn’t wear glasses like those two (here and here) did must mean something favorable), at this point in the organizations developmental curve, the idea that the Indians should be maximizing Laffey’s ability to eat innings from the bullpen is not without merit, particularly if the Indians find themselves consistently behind early in games.

Given the expectations for the current starting rotation, how many innings do you think that he would get as the long man (assuming he doesn’t go into the rotation, and he will at a certain point) if he throws between 2 to 3 innings every 3 or 4 games?

All told, Laffey’s going to see his share of innings this year and given that there was some thought that Laffey’s eventual spot would be in the bullpen, using the 2010 season to ultimately determine where his value is the greatest to the organization while attempting to keep the Indians in some games where the starting pitcher falters early holds merit not just in April but well beyond.

Given that Laffey is arbitration-eligible after this season, it behooves the Indians to find out what his best spot is on the team (be it the rotation or the bullpen) as his salary is about to increase substantially for 2011. The argument could be made that Laffey should be put into the rotation and given a long leash (in fact, I think that I’ve made that argument), but Laffey’s role as a swing man allows the Indians to evaluate him both as a starter and as a reliever.
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Speaking of Laffey, did anyone know that Laffey remains the only player from the 2003 Draft that remains on the Indians’ roster or even in the organization? That year, Laffey was a 16th round pick and this week alone has shown that even the players that now find themselves outside of the organization from that draft have underwhelmed.

With 2003 1st Round Pick (11th overall) Michael Aubrey being outrighted off of the Orioles’ 40-man roster and clearing waivers and Ryan Garko (2003 3rd round pick) being outrighted out of Seattle to be a waiver claim for the Rangers, this has not been a particularly good two weeks for the 2003 Indians’ draftees.

The only player, besides Laffey, from that draft who finds himself in a meaningful MLB role entering the 2010 season is Kevin Kouzmanoff (2003 6th round pick), who is now the starting 3B for the Oakland Athletics. As we all know, K2 was traded to for Josh Barfield who finds himself going into the 2010 season as the now 27-year-old 2B for the…wait for it…Portland Beavers of the Pacific Coast League, after not making the Padres (they of the $37M payroll) out of Spring Training.

Seeing as how Aubrey and Barfield were DFA’d by the team and how no other 2003 draftee still finds themselves in the organization, the players that the Indians have to show for the 2003 draft are minor-league pitcher Scott Barnes (acquired for Garko) and one Aaron Laffey.

Obviously, some of the disappointment of that draft rests in Atom Miller’s finger not cooperating…and remember when he was in SI’s “Dream Rotation” back in 2007? However, in the same two-week timeframe that saw 2004 1st Round Pick (6th overall) Jeremy Sowers ALSO get outrighted off of the 40-man roster AND clear waivers, just like Aubrey did in Baltimore, it brought home another reason that the Indians find themselves where they are in 2010. As a quick aside, it is worth noting that 2005 1st Round Pick (14th overall) Trevor Crowe may not be far behind the path now taken by Aubrey and Sowers off of the 40-man and into AAA at some point in the near future as his usefulness to the organization as a 4th OF (and he certainly doesn’t look to be more than that) will run out once his affordability does.

Just to leave this on rosier terms, now might be a good time to mention that Lonnie Chisenhall (2008 1st Round Draft Pick) may make it to the Majors sooner than anyone drafted in 2006 and 2007, other than Dave Huff who is the only player from either draft to make it to Cleveland from those two drafts. While Josh Judy (34th round, 2007) may improbably be the second, the 2008 draft may already have an impact by the end of the year with The Chiz hopefully on the fast track to the hot corner in Cleveland.
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Not sure if you caught this beauty from Yankees’ president Randy Levine, responding to Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio complaining about Milwaukee’s difficulties in signing Prince Fielder to a contract extension, so cue the insanity:
“I'm sorry that my friend Mark continues to whine about his running the Brewers,” Levine told ESPNNewYork.com in a phone interview Tuesday morning. “We play by all the rules and there doesn’t seem to be any complaints when teams such as the Brewers receive hundreds of millions of dollars that they get from us in revenue sharing the last few years. Take some of that money that you get from us and use that to sign your players…The question that should be asked is: Where has the hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue sharing gone?”

Just for a point of comparison, the largest contract that the Brewers have ever handed out was a $45M deal to Ryan Braun in 2008 that spanned 8 years. Prince is going to be looking for a deal comparable to what Teixiera and Mauer recently signed for (8 years, upwards of $175M) with Scott Boras as Fielder’s agent.
Anyone want to venture a guess how this is going to end up?

Getting past the absurdity that there is an ESPNNewYork.com (given that it is a redundancy), I’m not sure why I’m rooting for more comments like this from the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox, in which they lord over their serfdom. The superiority and utter disdain for facts in these arguments while asserting that they are simply playing “by all the rules” is appalling as they attempt to question why a team like the Brewers aren’t able to simply go to the money tree when they need something while they happily sign their own (did anyone else see how the Beckett extension that locks him up until he’s 34 is relatively minor news) and simply wait to sign the best players (Carl Crawford’s Yankee jersey may already be available in Team Shops) that they didn’t develop.

The financial disparity in MLB is something that you’re likely tired of hearing about here (because I’m tired of writing about it with no discernable end in sight), but I want the Yankees and their like to assert this position as often and as loudly as possible. Reason being that at a certain point, there’s going to be a national writer or a person with the national stage who points out the absurdity of the Yankees’ “argument” that small-to-mid-market teams should simply “sign their players” and that they demand to know where the “hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue sharing” has gone?

If an owner like Attanasio in Milwaukee, who sells out his stadium and has built through the draft, is the one who’s going to be rattling his saber on this, I’m all for it because this issue HAS to come to a head at some point, does it not?

While Game 1 of last year’s World Series certainly seemed to present the perfect opportunity for somebody to get up on a soapbox and rail against the unleveled playing field in MLB, the hope would be that the discussion is coming and that the league has a commissioner and a bloc of owners in place to push for real changes and not just ones that inexplicably embrace the system, as “floating realignment” would have.

If the “haves” in this argument ignore basic tenets of their built-in advantage and look down upon the “have-nots”, how do the “have-nots” (of which there are more) not rebel against this system?

Maybe everyone’s truly making too much money because of the current system (although in Attanasio’s response to Levine’s comments he said that the Brewers “need” their piece of revenue sharing), but at a certain point, the league becomes more laughable than ever in terms of competitive balance as teams with deeper pockets get as smart (or smarter) than teams reliant on out-smarting because they cannot outspend.

If the Brewers are used as a team that is showing “how proceeds given to them by wealthier teams can be reinvested to assemble good rosters and draw fans” as they were in the article accompanying Forbes’ recent franchise valuations (and have some fun with that link, even if there are unsurprising teams at the top of the list), and their owner is being taken to task by the bully on the block, the day of reckoning has to be coming…doesn’t it?

If we’re lucky, the battle lines are starting to be drawn between the large-market teams and likes of Milwaukee and Cleveland with the collective voice of the small-to-mid-market teams growing loud enough to force serious changes at the way that business is conducted in a game that is still intrinsically beautiful, but a sport that remains fundamentally flawed.

A Lazy Sunday with 162 Games Coming

It being Easter and with the fickle winds of Spring in Cleveland casting a favorable eye on us over the past couple of days, I’m not sure if anyone is aware of this but…um, Opening Day is tomorrow. While talk in Cleveland has revolved around the Cavs’ imminent playoff push (and rightfully so) and the build-up NFL Draft (not so justifiably, though it is Cleveland), the Indians’ season ranks somewhere ahead of the Gladiators (I think) and behind a team from CSU’s conference making the national championship game. Nevertheless, it isn’t Spring on the North Coast if the Erie Warriors aren’t getting ready to step onto a green patch and play the kids’ game that we all live and die for.
Regardless of the disappointments of the last few seasons and the lowered expectations heading into this year, watching baseball that counts is close once again and, because of that, the world is feels nearly complete once more.

Off of the pulpit and off to settle a 3-year-old down who has attempted to eat his body weight in sugar by noon, let’s get this going on a Lazy Sunday that’s a little out of the ordinary, but a little more in-depth (OK, more than “a little” than most season previews that you’re going to find out there.

Before getting into it however, it is worth noting that the Season Previews have come out en masse, from Castro’s piece on the rotation dictating the Indians’ season, to Vince Grzegorek’s…um, “admittedly unorthodox” preview, to Pete Gammons calling the Indians a “team to watch” while SI.com’s Jon Heyman calls them a team that “could surprise”, over to Joe Posnanski’s SI preview on the AL Central, right down to Terry Pluto’s multiple part season preview (with pieces on the rotation, the bullpen, the offense, the defense, and the definitive overview, which is not yet online), there is no shortage of reading material for tomorrow…if you haven’t already caught up on all of those pieces worth more than just a cursory glance.

In addition to all of those pen-to-paper (so to speak) previews, Tony Lastoria and I were lucky enough to welcome the two members of the local mainstream media that make all other writers superfluous as Terry Pluto and Anthony Castrovince (who accepted the challenge to create his own Bruce Springsteen-only playlist for the Indians) to last Thursday’s “Smoke Signals”. The information and insight from both was (unsurprisingly) solid and puts the events of Spring Training and the season that lies ahead into the proper context.

With all of that out of the way, let’s get right into a “season preview” that has become a bit of a tradition around these parts and take a look at the events about to transpire over the next 162 baseball games played by YOUR Cleveland Indians…at least according to one fertile imagination:

April 5th vs. Chicago White Sox
Setting the tone for the 2010 season for the White Sox’ rotation, Mark Buehrle throws a complete game for the South Siders in a 3-2 victory over the Indians on Opening Day. Jake Westbrook, in his first appearance since 2008, allows only one run in 6 innings, leaving with a 2-1 lead after the 6th. However, in what will become a familiar theme for the early portion of the season, the pitchers meant to serve as the bridge to Chris Perez in the 9th inning struggle as Tony Sipp and Joe Smith give up 2 runs in the 7th inning, leading to the first Indians loss of the season.

April 14th vs. Texas Rangers
Matt LaPorta hits two HR to key a 10-8 victory over the Rangers as the Indians are able to overcome a rough outing from Justin Masterson and are saved by 3 scoreless relief innings from Aaron Laffey. LaPorta, settling in at 1B over the first two weeks, will continue to impress at the plate throughout the season, eventually moving up to the 4th spot in the order by the end of the season, breaking up some of the LH bats that populate the Indians lineup and firmly establishing himself as a “core” player for the Indians with 1B being his position of both the present and the future.

April 28th vs. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim within Orange County
Fausto Carmona pitches a complete game with 85 pitches against the Angels as the Indians win the day by a 6-1 margin, avoiding a series sweep. Angels’ CF Torii Hunter attempts to wave away reporters assembled at his locker after the game saying, “I thought that guy was gone…man, I hoped that guy was gone forever. I don’t want to see that sinker ever again. With Reddy (Indians’ catcher Mike Redmond, a former Minnesota teammate of Hunter) in my ear all game, I’m telling Skipper to forget my name when he’s filling up the lineup card if we’re scheduled to face him later in the season…I want none of what he’s dealing again.”

April 30th vs. Minnesota Twins
Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta launch back-to-back 9th inning HR in a walk-off win for Tribe against Twins’ closer Jon Rauch in what will be Rauch’s final game as the Twins’ 9-inning reliever. The victory allows the Indians to finish the first month of the season with a 9-13 record, in 3rd place in the Central ahead of the similarly bullpen-challenged Minnesota club and the hapless Royals.

May 7th vs. Detroit Tigers
After some “minor setbacks” that push his return back about a month, Russell Branyan is activated off of the DL as Mike Brantley (struggling to get his sea legs under him in the first month) is optioned to Columbus to make room for Branyan as the original plan of Branyan at 1B-LaPorta in LF looks closer to becoming a reality. That “reality” is short-lived however when Branyan “tweaks his back” swinging (and missing) at a Max Scherzer fastball. While Branyan and the Indians insist that rest and therapy will return Branyan to the lineup in short order, he will be placed on the DL once again on Monday’s off day as Brantley returns without ever having unpacked his bags in Columbus to assume the LF duties once again, duties he will not relinquish.

May 19th vs. Kansas City Royals
The Indians return to town after a road trip and are joined by Kerry Wood, who returns from the DL to fortify the bullpen, responsible for the club’s recent 5-game losing streak and still struggling as roles and uses were never truly sorted out in Wood’s absence. To make room for Wood, Tony Sipp is sent to Columbus as his struggles to find the strike zone have moved him out of any thought of contributing past the 5th inning. The bullpen makeover goes further when Jensen Lewis, having given up 5 HR in 8 appearances, accompanies Sipp on the trip to AAA as Saul Rivera is called up to take his spot. With Wood back in the bullpen, the Indians use the progression of Rafael Perez in the 7th, Chris Perez in the 8th, and Wood in the 9th to finally provide some semblance of consistency at the back end of the bullpen as the Indians top the Royals by a 6-5 margin, giving Mitch Talbot his first victory as an Indian.

May 22nd vs. Cincinnati Reds
The widespread roster machinations continue as Luis Valbuena, being used increasingly in recent weeks in a platoon with Mark Grudzielanek at 2B, is sent to Columbus after failing to get to three groundballs induced by Jake Westbrook in a 7-4 loss to the Reds. After the game, manager Manny Acta proclaims that, “with as many groundball pitchers as we have on this staff, failing to get to those balls is inexcusable and Luis knows better than that”. To replace him at 2B, Jason Donald is called up as he is scorching AAA pitching for Columbus while providing stellar infield defense for the Clippers. Donald begins to play everyday for the Indians at 2B after his call-up, posting average numbers at the plate but combining with Asdrubal Cabrera to provide an airtight middle of the infield defense that improves the “luck” of the groundball starters dramatically. The move of Valbuena to AAA and Donald to MLB is one that will remain in place until Valbuena ascends after rosters expand in September as he prepares to assume his role as Future Utility Infielder with Donald using the opportunity in 2010 to cement his place as the Indians’ 2B.

May 29th vs. New York Yankees
After a particularly demoralizing outing in a Tribe loss against the best lineup money can buy to drop the Wahoos to 19-29, Dave Huff is demoted to Columbus as the beating that he takes at the hands of the Yankee hitters is representative of the way that his 2010 season has started. Huff is replaced in the rotation by Carlos Carrasco, who is dominating AAA hitters while striking out nearly 13 hitters every 9 innings in Columbus. Carrasco uses the momentum gained in Columbus to assert himself the rotation behind a still-blazing Carmona and steady-as-she-goes Westbrook. With Talbot and Laffey thriving (relatively speaking) in their new roles as back-of-the-rotation starter and long man, and Masterson’s wild inconsistency from start to start, Carrasco establishes himself as the 3rd best starter on the team as the season progresses by avoiding the big innings that had previously plagued him and by using his superb change-up to keep MLB hitters off-balance.

June 3rd vs. Chicago White Sox
On the same day when he finishes just a triple shy of the cycle, Shin-Soo Choo (with Scott Boras singing his praises and perhaps pulling the strings to get the story in the magazine) is featured in a Sports Illustrated story on Choo being “Baseball’s Best-Kept Secret.” The headline rings true as, pacing the Indians’ potent offense from the #3 hole, Choo enters June with little fanfare despite leading the league in doubles and in the Top 5 in the AL in OPS, where he will stay consistently throughout the course of the season. In the SI piece, Boras declares, “if you don’t know about Chewie yet, you’re going to get to know him soon and someday he’s going to get paid like the elite player that he is”.
The groans from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario are audible.

June 17th vs. New York Mets
Mere days after being called up from Columbus, Carlos Santana hits 2 doubles and a HR off of Johan Santana and Mets’ relievers, as he sets the pace for a 10-8 victory. Santana’s extra-base hit total for the 6 games that he’s spent with the parent club (7) match the total put forth by the now-Columbus-bound Lou Marson in the first 2 months of the season. Santana will continue to rake offensively, though opposing teams run wild on the young catcher, stealing bases at a Hendersonian clip with few Caught Stealings to prevent them from continuing to run on Santana.

June 24th vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Rafael Perez enters the 7th inning with the bases loaded and nobody out preparing to face the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. After striking out Chase Utley, Perez induces a weak grounder to 2B from Ryan Howard, which is turned into the inning-ending twin killing. Perez bounds off of the mound, pumping his fist, looking like the Rafael Perez of old, as he has for the better part of the season, solidifying the 7th inning. Chris Perez and Kerry Wood mow down the Phillies in the 8th and the 9th, preserving the victory for former Phillies’ farmhand Carlos Carrasco, who strikes out 9 in 6 innings while walking none on his way to getting the win in a 4-2 game in favor of the Tribe, now sitting in 4th in the Central with a 31-40 record.

July 9th vs. Tampa Bay Rays
After a loss at the hands of the AL East leading Rays, the Indians’ top-of-the-order is rightfully recognized as Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore are named reserves to All-Star team on the strength of their contributions to a top 3 offense in the AL. While Choo is universally listed as the biggest “All-Star snub” (presumably at Scott Boras’ urging), each player occupying the top of the Indians’ lineup prove themselves to be elite players at their position. Cabrera’s OPS leads all AL Shortstops throughout the season and his defense at SS (with Jason Donald as his running mate) makes him a highlight-reel fixture. Fully healthy, Sizemore shows that 2009 proves to be the aberration in his body of work as he adjusts seamlessly into the #2 spot in the lineup and finds himself on pace for a 30 HR/30SB season at the All-Star break. By the end of the season, he will continue to go long and go hard, finishing the season with 36 HR and 34 SB.

July 20th vs. Minnesota Twins
After giving up 6 runs in only 2/3 of an inning against the LH-laden lineup of the Twins in a loss that will keep the Indians tethered to 4th place in the Central with a 48-58 record, the Indians announce that Justin Masterson will be moved from the rotation to the bullpen. The question of which pitcher will be leaving the bullpen to make room for Masterson finds its answer when Kerry Wood is traded to the St. Louis Cardinals late that night for RHP Lance Lynn, giving Cubs’ fans fits and giving the Indians another arm to sort through in their future rotational mix. Wood’s exit and Masterson’s move to the bullpen shakes up the back-end-of-the-bullpen as Chris Perez ascends once again to the closer role while Masterson is handed the keys to the 8th inning. To replace Masterson in the rotation, Dave Huff is recalled from Columbus, where he has been striking out hitters at a clip above his 8.5 K/9 rate from 2008 in AA/AAA. Huff will remain in the rotation through the end of the season as his performance evens out to the point that he is seen as a viable 4th starter going into the 2011 season.

July 28th vs. New York Yankees
After a 4-1 win against the Bronx Bombers in which Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez, and Chris Perez combine for a three-hitter, the Indians trade Jake Westbrook to the Colorado Rockies for LHP Rex Brothers. After some early rust is shaken off, Westbrook has proven to be the workhorse that he was from 2004 to 2006, capable of eating innings in a rotation in need of just that. While conventional wisdom presupposes that this trade opens the door for Aaron Laffey to rejoin the rotation, the Indians decide to keep Laffey in the bullpen, where he has been performing (to some critical acclaim) as the long man and 2nd LHP since Tony Sipp’s demotion. Instead, they promote Hector Rondon to the MLB rotation as Rondon has shown himself to be above AAA competition in his time as a Clipper.

July 30th vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After blasting his 14th HR of the year in a 12-9 victory over the Jays, Jhonny Peralta is dealt to the San Francisco Giants for MLB LH reliever Dan Runzler, who immediately takes a spot in the Indians’ bullpen at the expense of warm body Saul Rivera. Andy Marte, still miraculously existing on the fringes of the 25-man roster because of Rusty Branyan’s extended DL “stint” takes over at 3B where he proves to be the 26-year-old former prospect that has trouble going the opposite way that all in Cleveland have come to know and…just know. Despite his struggles at the plate, Marte’s defense sparkles at 3B as he combines with Cabrera and Donald to back a rotation that is starting to show some semblance of settling in.

August 4th vs. Boston Red Sox
In his first start of the season, Hector Rondon goes 7 shutout innings against Red Sox hitters, contributing mightily to a 3-1 victory for the Indians. With Rondon in place in the rotation, the rotation of Carmona, Huff, Carrasco, Rondon, and Talbot settles in for the remainder of the season, with few exceptions. While Rondon will prove to still be wet-behind-the-ears as the season closes out and Talbot will ultimately reveal himself to be a fringy 5th starter, the 2010 does provide some answers in the rotation. Carmona proves to be close to his 2007 form (if not quite as dominant) while Carrasco starts to fulfill some of the promise predicted for him all those years on the “Top Prospect” lists as he limits his meltdown innings and strikes out batters at a clip well above the rest of the rotation. Beyond Carmona and Carrasco asserting themselves as a top-of-the-rotation horse and a #3 starter for 2011 and beyond, Huff’s consistency after his mid-July call-up lends credence to the idea that he can legitimately be penciled in as a fringe #3 or solid #4 starter going forward.

August 13th vs. Seattle Mariners
Facing off against their former ace, the Indians beat up on Cliff Lee to the tune of 5 runs in the first 2 innings. The victory is not assured in the least however, as the punchless Mariners beat up on Mitch Talbot to tie the score at 7-7 in the 4th inning. The game is essentially won when Mike Brantley and Asdrubal Cabrera start with the pitch on a hit-and-run in the 8th inning, with Grady Sizemore poking the ball into shallow RF at the plate. Both Brantley and Cabrera score as the Indians take a 9-7 lead, en route to a 9-8 victory. The game is ostensibly saved when Aaron Laffey and the recently-promoted Josh Judy lock down the Mariners for 4 innings, allowing the Indians to take the win. Judy will continue to pitch well as he joins the burgeoning mix of 6th and 7th inning relievers (Laffey now included, along with Jess Todd who has made his way topside) that are currently serving as the bridge to the now-effective back-end of the bullpen progression of Perez-Masterson-Perez.

August 30th vs. Chicago White Sox
In a victory over the division-leading White Sox that will bring the Indians into 3rd place in the Central with a 62-69 record, Travis Hafner deposits a Jake Peavy fastball into Pronkville for his 24th HR of the season in what is, most importantly, his 110th game of the season with 30 games left to play. Attempting to resurrect himself as Pronk, Hafner has made leaps and bounds throughout the course of the season as his OPS puts him at the top of AL DH list. After some days off early in the season, Hafner has played without prolonged absences since the beginning of June as his shoulder issues in the past look to be just that…in the past.

September 10th vs. Minnesota Twins
Facing off against a 2nd place Twins’ team trying to catch the White Sox in the Central, the Indians provide a vision of their future as Carlos Carrasco goes 7 strong inning in shutting down the Minnesota lineup in a 8-1 victory. The offense is paced by Mike Brantley, red-hot since the All-Star break with his OBP approaching .375 after struggling early on, Carlos Santana, who is garnering Rookie of the Year attention despite spending the first two and half months in Columbus, and Matt LaPorta, whose emergence as a RH bat provides the Indians’ lineup the balance that it has lacked against certain pitchers.

September 17th vs. Kansas City Royals
Fausto Carmona puts finishing touches on a remarkable turnaround season as he records 27 outs while throwing only 79 pitches against a completely overmatched Royals’ team headed to the AL Central cellar for another year. The offense provides more than enough firepower as both Sizemore and Choo hit HR in the first inning as the Indians coast to a 9-0 victory as they run their overall record to 68-79 with two weeks left in the season.

September 28th vs. Detroit Tigers
In the final homestand of the season, the Indians defeat a Detroit team that has been undone by injuries and burdened by overpaid veterans and underperforming rookies as the Indians cement a 3rd place finish in the Central. The 5-4 victory is sealed when Justin Masterson strikes out all 6 Tiger hitters that he faces in the 8th and 9th innings to close out the game for the Indians.

October 3rd vs. Chicago White Sox
Playing against a White Sox team that is resting the majority of their regulars after capturing the AL Central the night before, the Indians close out their 2010 season with a victory keyed by 3 doubles by Asdrubal Cabrera and Dave Huff continuing his second-half consistency that will earn him a 2011 rotation spot as he shuts down the White Sox “B” lineup. The 7-1 victory puts the Indians’ final won-loss total at 78-84, placing them in third place in the division, 5 games behind the 2nd place Twins and 2 games ahead of the 4th place Tigers.

In the locker room after the game, Manny Acta has nothing but positive things to say about the team (as he has all year) despite the club’s losing record and despite the staggering turnover in the pitching staff. Acta says, “we knew when we started this season that we were looking for some things to build on for the future and I think we did. Nearly every position is firmed up for next year and the one spot that isn’t has a kid down in AAA in Lonnie Chisenhall that could have been up here this September if we wanted him to be. The pitching was a roller-coaster and made me lose enough hair that I didn’t have to shave my head nearly as much as I should have, but I think we made some progress. Fausto came back like a monster and Carrasco and Huff showed that they belong in a good team’s rotation. Once we got through some of those growing pains in the bullpen, I felt good about almost everybody I had out there…those boys that we have out there can miss some bats, I’ll tell you that.”

When he is asked to put the season that has just finished into some perspective, Acta winks and tells the assembled media, “we’re growing a garden here, we didn’t expect this thing to bear fruit as soon as the seeds were planted. This year provided some of the rain and the sunlight that we need to continue to grow. Trust me when I tell you that we’ll get there, to that point when this thing is in full bloom, and that day is not far away.”

Enjoy the season…

The Sound of Music

While the tradition has always been to celebrate the first full workout of Spring Training with a little ritual called “The Soundtrack of Life” (and a detailed explanation of which can be found here). Since sometimes life gets in the way of the best-laid plans, after a bit of a delay, I thought that Opening Day being just a few days away presented a nice opportunity to finally roll this out as the edges of the 25-man roster are finally reconciled.

If you’re not familiar with the concept (or didn’t feel like using the link above), simply take this as one man’s humble suggestions for what songs each Indian should bring with them to the plate or the mound down at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. If you’re interested in years past, here are the suggestions for 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009…and, to my knowledge, none of them to date have been used by any player at any time.

In determining who was “worthy” of such thought and work, guys like Jamey Wright and the like don’t interest me in as much that I don’t think that they’ll make huge contributions for 2010 (or at least I hope they don’t) and as much as I'd like to drop some obvious Carlos Santana (the guitarist) reference in for a certain stud catcher, I’m going to keep this limited to guys that look to have a chance to break camp with the team and project as more than just organizational filler.

As always the names of the songs link to the songs, whether it be in YouTube format or something called iLike, which I was not aware of. Regardless, without further ado…I present the 2010 Soundtrack of Life:
Asdrubal Cabrera
“Swagga Like Us” – T.I. and Jay-Z
If there would be one word to describe the way that Asdrubal carries himself around the diamond, the basepaths, and the batter box – I would choose “swagger”, or it’s familial relation, “swagga”. With Asdrubal sitting at the top of the lineup, this little ditty from some hip-hop heavyweights would project some confidence for the team right off the bat…because some early leads would be nice this season, given the fragile state of the rotation.

Grady Sizemore
“I’ll Be Your Man” – The Black Keys
Go ahead, get all of the picture-related suggestions out of your system…“Centerfold” by J. Geils, “Photograph” by Def Leppard, and so on and so forth. For me, I’ll go with the band that (hopefully) reminds Grady that something cool and soulful can still emerge from the North Coast. With Patrick Carney laying down the beat and Dan Auerbach growling out the lyrics, this duo from Akron continues to set the standard for blues-rock. The fact that they’re the biggest band to emerge from Northeast Ohio since…Devo(?) is not something to focus on here. That would be the riff, oh…and the fact that this is the theme song to HBO’s series “Hung”.
See, you didn’t think I'd leave that one alone, did you?

The BLC
“No Leaf Clover” – Metallica
As Choo calmly strides to the plate, about to inflict the damage that we’ve come to expect, an apropos line would be James Hetfield screaming that “then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, it’s just a freight train coming your way”.
American League, don’t be fooled by the subdued demeanor of the Indians’ RF, just get ready for the “freight train coming your way”.

Travis Hafner
“No Easy Way Out” – Robert Tepper
In Rocky IV, one of the defining moments of the movie occurs as Rocky goes for a night drive after Apollo has been killed in the ring, with flashes of Drago killing Apollo and Drago yelling at the Rock, as the soundtrack screams in the background. Watching the montage, you can’t help but think that Rocky has some unfinished business in front of him as he’s destined to avenge the recent events that have shaped his life and perhaps his legacy.
Everybody knows this scene, right…so, why is this relevant?

If I may make a suggestion to someone with some skills in creating videos (perhaps if they were employed at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario all the better), a montage should be made for Hafner to be played before every at-bat based loosely upon that very scene in which he looks around Jacobs Field, as images of him grounding out weakly to the pitcher or slamming his bat down in disgust are interspersed and accompanied by the same song that ultimately drove Rocky to Russia to train.

When (or is it “if”) Pronk returns in all of his glory, we can talk about a Hafner montage with “Burning Heart” or “Hearts on Fire” in the background, but in Hafner’s current situation, we’re going with “No Easy Way Out”.

Jhonny Peralta
“September” – Earth, Wind and Fire
Way back in Fall of 2007 (if anyone can still remember those halcyon days), the best player for the Indians happened to be one Mr. Jhonny Peralta, when he had 5 doubles and 2 HR in the 11 Indians’ playoff games. His 8 RBI in the ALCS against Boston is likely to represent the high point of Jhonny’ career as an Indian as his phenomenal 2005 season at the age of 23 looks to be just a tease in the entire body of work. Yes, I know that all the games were in October, but is there a more fitting way to say goodbye to Jhonny and to the feelings of that 2007 season than to sing along to Earth, Wind, and Fire as they sing…
“Say do you remember…dancing in September…never was a cloudy day…”

Matt LaPorta
“Spaceman” – The Killers
With the introduction of the term “LaPortaisms” into our greater vocabulary, I thought that a nod to another…um, “quirky” MLB player was in order as homage to Bill “Spaceman” Lee could provide LaPorta’s walk-out music. With LaPorta providing fodder like “Is it bad that I’m dehydrated in one leg?” and “It comes naturally. I just have to think about it”, LaPorta’s…um, quirkiness harkens back to the days of Bill “Spaceman” Lee uncorking beauties like “The only rule I got is if you slide, get up”, leading to The Killers providing the accompaniment for LaPorta, a suggestion that he actually may be interested in.

Luis Valbuena
“Chaconne de M. Couperin” – Louis Couperin
Since the only time that Roman Numerals are used anymore are in the designation of the Super Bowl, maybe now would be a good time to explain again that the nickname evolution for Valbuenan goes that Luis V. begat Louie the Fifth, or in some instances, Louie the Slugger. With the introduction of the French monarchy to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, the walking music would almost have to be something that recalled the indulgent days of Versailles, even if those days would come some 650 years after the real King Louis V.

Russell Branyan
“Money for Nothing” – Dire Straits
Not sure much explanation is needed here, other than to say that I don’t think that this music is going to be heard too frequently at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this season, hence the song selection.

Lou Marson
“Use Somebody” – Kings of Leon
With Carlos Santana’s defense not-quite-ready-for-primetime, it would be nice if the Indians could “Use Somebody”. You know that they could “Use Somebody” to be used as a bridge to fill in until Santana’s ultimate ascension to the team.
Wait for it - “Somebody like…Lou”

Michael Brantley
“Rebirth of Slick” – Digable Planets
With the service time issue still hanging over his head, has Mike Brantley ever projected more than a care in the world over whether this whole thing would take care itself? Seeing Brantley come up last season and handle himself similarly, is it time to assume that Brantley preternatural maturity just be a by-product that he’s “Cool Like Dat”?

Andy Marte
“Hanginaround” – Counting Crows
Want to know which of the current Indians pre-date Marte, who received his first AB with Cleveland on Opening Day of 2006?
4 – Sizemore, Peralta, Hafner, and Westbrook.
“I’ve been bummin’ around this old town for way, way, way, way too looooooooong.”

Trevor Crowe
“Far Behind” – Candlebox
Turn back the page to 1994 when, as an impressionable youth, I was happy to pin my hopes on any “Next Big Thing” that came along in the grunge genre (or anything that came close to it), buying into the long-term potential of bands like Silverchair, Bush, Collective Soul, and of course, Candlebox. Fast-forward to a few weeks ago when a local station played Candlebox’s biggest hit, “Far Behind”. Hearing this remnant of the mid-1990s music scene, I found the song ill-suited for human ears and immediately embarrassed at the way that I could be so wrong about Candlebox, lo those many years ago. For whatever reason, this station kept the song in heavy rotation (yes, I know satellite radio and podcasts are the way to go) and every time that I heard the first few notes in the ensuing weeks, the song depressed me as it morphed into becoming emblematic of some of the misplaced hope and optimism of my youth.

Why is this relevant?
Trevor Crowe, the alleged “future lead-off hitter” whom Red Sox scouts once called “Ty Cobb” and who has since revealed himself to be…well, Trevor Crowe – he is my “Far Behind” of the Indians of the mid-to-late-2000s. That stretch of time when unreasonable hopes were pinned on lesser prospects because of draft placement and organizational hype is symbolized by one Trevor Crowe. The more I am reminded of this lesson in the context of the Indians and prospects, the better.
Just let me tell you about this Jason Kipnis kid…

Jake Westbrook
“Alive” – Pearl Jam
Want to know how many MLB pitchers have thrown more than the 34 2/3 innings that Westbrook has accumulated over the last two years?
562 MLB pitchers have thrown more innings than Westbrook (who ekes out Jason Davis’ two-year total by 2 outs), with 19 Indians among those 562, including Edward Mujica...no, seriously. Despite all this, Westbrook is still “Alive” and rumors of his demise look to be false as he is, by nearly all accounts, fully healthy and looks to be ready to contribute his middle-of-the-rotation production…albeit at the top-of-the-rotation.

Fausto Carmona
“Control” – Janet Jackson
Since it is tradition to include at least one song that appeared on the original “NBA Superstars” video, we’ll go with the song that signaled the dawn of a new day for Janet Jackson. Thus, not only is the time for the “dawn of a new day” overdue for the Faustastic One, and if the “Control” that he’s shown in Arizona is any indication, that day may finally be arriving.
Plus, “NBA Superstars”…Magic Johnson, how can you not like this?

Justin Masterson
“Come Find Yourself” – Fun Lovin’ Criminals
For the pitcher whose role (not roster spot) on the team would be the least defined going forward, a little self-evaluation may be in order. As much as I'd like to go with “Get In Where You Fit In” by Too $hort (on an album that I think I actually have somewhere), I’m going to guess that the son of a minister is Southwest Ohio is not a huge fan of Too $hort.

Dave Huff
“Plush” – Stone Temple Pilots
Not to go all Cliff Clavin here, but it’s…a…eh…little known fact that Dave Huff went to the same high school as Scott Weiland of STP and Velvet Revolver fame. While perhaps Huff could benefit from some Gaylord Perry “Vaseline”, I’m going with the classic STP anthem and “wait for tomorrow” on the potential of Huff in the rotation.

Mitch Talbot
Unleash the Fury scene from “Road Trip”
As much as I'd like to go with “Papered Up”, which is the song that Snoop Dogg performs in the movie “Old School” during Mitch-A-Palooza, I’m eschewing the song in the traditional sense here and going with just the intermittent strumming of Tom Green on a single guitar string, instructing the snake to “Unleash the Fury” on an unsuspecting rodent.

Aaron Laffey
“The Underdog” – Spoon
Those sad eyes, that baby face and his slight build almost cast Laffey as the role of the underdog, where he’s perpetually overlooked for something that is bigger, faster, and (hopefully) better. Heading into 2010, he seems to be filling that spot again as The Babyfaced Bulldog will start the season in the bullpen and while he may not stay there for long, guarantees have never come Laffey’s way with the Indians.

Chris Perez
“Black Betty” – Ram Jam
Yes, I know that the real theme song for “Eastbound and Down” is “Going Down” by Freddie King, but the closing credits of the pilot for the show has Kenny (um…Firetruckin’) Powers riding a jet ski to the beat and cymbals that set the tone for this classic. If CFP (that’s Chris…Firetruckin’ Perez) is going to endear himself to the 98.5 WNCX crowd that still looks forward to “Born to Run” at 5 PM every Friday (and really, who doesn’t despite the ironic lyrics being loved in Cleveland), then going with a rock anthem is the route to go. As much as I'd like to go with the extended version of The Scorpions’ “Rock You Like a Hurricane” because CFP went to the University of Miami, that still belongs to John Rocker – and I was sitting in the Mezz, watching him running maniacally out of the bullpen in his debut appearance to the adoring crowd, in what was possibly the greatest entrance I’ve ever seen. Additionally, let’s keep the Kenny Powers/John Rocker comparison to Chris Perez on the fictional side of the ledger.

Kerry Wood
“Here Today, Gone Tomorrow” – The Ramones
The day is coming (probably sometime in July) when the Indians are going to sit down with Wood and initiate the whole “it’s not you, it’s me” conversation as the inevitable break-up is coming. It shouldn’t be a surprise and it shouldn’t be unexpected as the only questions that still remain are whether Wood will be healthy enough to trade and which NL Central team (not based in Chicago) will acquire him at the Trading Deadline to twist the knife in the open wound of Cubs’ fans everywhere.

Rafael Perez
“Fistful of Steel” – Rage Against the Machine
A long time ago in what feels like a galaxy far, far away, Rafael Perez made up the ½ of the famous bullpen combination of “Fist of Iron”/“Fist of Steel” with Rafael Betancourt. Legend had it that the bullpen boasted “one fist of iron, the other of steel / if the right one don’t get you then the left one will”. If anything can be gleaned from Spring Training (it usually can’t), Rafael Perez as the “Fist of Steel” may be making his way back to the North Coast. While that may constitute wishful thinking, a bullpen without that “Fist of Steel” may not be that much different than the ones since that nickname was bestowed on The Two Rafaels in 2007.

Tony Sipp
“On the Vista” – Blakroc
While Sipp’s long-term importance to the Indians’ bullpen is obvious as a potential back-end of the bullpen LHP, his actual effectiveness may be somewhere off in the future or, “On the Vista” if you will. Plus, working in as many tunes by The Black Keys (and this is their collaboration with Mos Def) is obviously on the agenda.

Joe Smith
Sidewinder – Avenged Sevenfold
Joe Smith is a sidearming RHP so….yeah, I don’t know that much about Joe Smith either.

Finally, with the news that Jeremy Sowers has been optioned off of the 40-man roster, it likely prevents Sowers stepping out to what will heretofore be known as the “Ryan Garko Memorial Song”, (and Garko was just waived by the Mariners). That song would be, of course, “Hold On” by Wilson Phillips.
Sowers, like Garko before him, could not hold on for one more day and, thus things did not go his way.

Little different feel to a Lazy Sunday this weekend, so enjoy the tunage above and sync up your iPods with the proper music listed so, if nothing else, you can make your own “walk-in” music for the players from the comfort of your home…or at least your mother’s basement.

A Lazy Sunday with the Roster Coming Into View

With a house full of in-laws for the big baptism this weekend, let’s get rolling right away on a Lazy Sunday before anyone figures out that I’m hammering away at a computer keyboard…

Much of the uncertainty regarding the fringes of the 25-man roster has focused on the “winner” of the back-end-of-the-rotation competition as Huff, Laffey, and Talbot continue to battle for the spots in the rotation. With Talbot now having already secured a spot in said rotation, I’d like to put in my order for some crow with some Sriracha sauce…though it is still March. The corresponding move of The Babyfaced Bulldog heading to the bullpen shouldn’t come as much of a surprise if you’ve been coming here regularly as the idea that a long man for this team would seem to be a pretty important role to fill to perhaps eat more than a few innings, particularly in the early going.

With Talbot in the rotation and Laffey headed off to the bullpen, the last spot in the rotation has now come down to Dave Huff now, quite suddenly, Los Carrasco. The inclusion of Carrasco comes as a bit of a surprise (though he has had a good camp) and frankly, I have trouble believing that Carrasco is seen as a legitimate option to break camp in the rotation. To me, his sudden inclusion is not much more than a veiled attempt to build Carrasco’s confidence and to put a sense of urgency in Huff’s push. In fact, I think that Terry Pluto probably has it right in the new “battle” between Huff and Carrasco when he writes, “hard to know if the Indians are serious about Carrasco making the rotation, or if this is designed to push Huff to throw more strikes early in the count.”

As the Opening Day rotation is finally coming into focus, and with all of the hand-wringing (admittedly done here) about which of these pitchers are going to fill out the back-end of that rotation, I thought it would be a nice time to introduce a piece from Marc Hulet at Fangraphs, who asserts that “Fifth Starters Don’t Exist”. While the “analysis” at Fangraphs can tend to overly weigh their own curious formulas and valuations and get bogged down in some newly created metrics, Hulet’s piece (and subsequent one…which is coming) has some fascinating numbers on how many teams in MLB realistically had five bona-fide starters throughout the course of the season.

Hulet’s research found the following regarding starting pitchers and 5-man rotations:
If we look back to the 2009 season, only two teams had five starters on their pitching staffs that made 24 or more starts: the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.
• All 30 teams had at least one pitcher make 24 or more starts.
• Twenty-six teams had two pitchers make 24 or more starts.
• Then the number drops to 22 teams that had three pitchers make 24 or more starts.
• Then we hit a cliff. Only nine teams were able to rely on four pitchers to make 24 or more starts.

Think about that – less than a 1/3 of teams in MLB had 4 pitchers make 24 or more starts last season!

Obviously, the Indians weren’t one of those teams as Carmona was the only pitcher to log 24 starts, meaning that the 24 number may have been created to include the Indians in the “All 30 teams…” portion of the exercise. Considering that Ant Reyes, Tomo Ohka, Scott Lewis, and Zach Jackson combined for 16 starts last year or nearly 10% of the 2009 games, does anyone have trouble believing this idea that the back-end-of-the-rotation for most teams falls somewhere between “hope” and “prayer”?

Regardless, in light of Hulet’s findings, I find his proposal to this issue that he finds in teams always chasing that 5-man rotation (sometimes to the detriment of developing players or receiving value from overpaid veterans like Livan Hernandez or Sidney Ponson) even more fascinating as he takes the next step and presents “A New Approach to Fifth Starters”.

While the idea that the Indians are chasing that mythical 5-man rotation doesn’t apply to what we’re looking at for 2010, his “approach” does hold some merit in attempting to figure out which pitchers are going to start games for the Indians in 2010 as it goes a little something like this:
The best bet is to focus on securing four starters that can make 24 starts or more. In the fifth spot in the rotation, a three-man job-share could then be developed and it would break down like this:
1. A long reliever who would serve as the seventh arm in the ‘pen and be expected to make eight to 10 starts on the year. Ideally, this would be a proven veteran who could stick at the MLB level all season.
2. A pitching prospect that projects to be a fringe No. 3 or 4 with two or three minor league options remaining. He would be introduced to the Majors in this low-pressure role over the next two to three seasons before officially (hopefully) graduating to the role of a reliable third or fourth starter. In this role, the pitcher would need to make about 10 starts at the MLB level each season.
3. A minor league “veteran” pitcher (somewhere in the 25-30 year old range) who has been unable to stick in the Majors – and still has at least one minor league option left – and can be relied on to make at least five starts on the season.
--snip--
So, to recap… This job-share plan is good because…
A) The inevitable pitching injuries will have a lesser (negative) impact
B) It will help train young pitchers for an eventual larger role
C) It’s cost efficient

While there is not a clean application of this for the Indians (and while the “best bet is to focus on securing four starters that can make 24 starts or more” leaves the Indians out at the first sentence), I think that the idea of concocting a witch’s brew of arms for the rotation does hold some merit in that it points out that there are certainly going to be games available for starting and innings out there for these guys to pitch.

Thus, if we’re looking at the 2010 Indians, who are really looking to fill out two of the final spots in the rotation and not just one and, they would seem to have fringe-MLB 6 arms that factor into the rotational mix this year, some more obviously than others.

While Hulet’s idea of a “veteran long reliever” may not necessarily apply to the Indians in the sense that the Indians are probably not going to give Jamey Wright 8-10 starts this year, they do have two guys who are out of options who would have to “stick at the MLB level all season” in Unleash the Fury, Mitch Talbot, and, to a lesser extent, Jeremy Sowers.

If we’re extrapolating out two rotation spots instead of one (as Hulet does), expecting Talbot and Sowers to combine for 16 to 20 starts is more than reasonable…assuming Talbot gets 15 to 19 of those starts.

Hulet’s criteria of “a pitching prospect that projects to be a fringe No. 3 or 4 with two or three minor league options remaining” to be “introduced to the Majors in this low-pressure role over the next two to three seasons before officially (hopefully) graduating to the role of a reliable third or fourth starter” could apply to either the tandem of Huff and Laffey or the duo of Carrasco and Rondon. For the purposes of this exercise, I’ll go with Carrasco and Rondon in that they’ll both be slowly introduced into the Indians’ rotation this year. While each (hopefully) has a higher ceiling than being a “fringe #3 or #4”, ingratiating each into the rotation win an eye past 2010 makes a lot of sense. Expecting them to combine for 10 starts this season is likely to be on the conservative side because of circumstances outside of those #4 and #5 spots, but I’ll get to that in a bit.

For the final criteria of “a minor league “veteran” pitcher (somewhere in the 25-30 year old range) who has been unable to stick in the Majors – and still has at least one minor league option left”, I'd put the likes of Huff and Laffey above this designation and I'd certainly expect them to start more than 10 games between the two of them, but it gets back to the idea that “back-end-of-the-rotation-by-committee” that offshoots from Hulet’s proposal is one that’s going to take place in Cleveland this summer. What Hulet asserts makes sense on a number of levels in that it allows the team to discern as much as possible about a number of different players (at a reasonable cost) and allows multiple arms to see starts in MLB.

Given that there is so much uncertainty around the back-end-of-the-rotation (as well as the front), as much attention is paid to who breaks camp with the team (again, admittedly by me), it’s more likely that the question of who starts the season in Cleveland or Columbus or in the rotation or in the bullpen is ancillary to the better discussion of how many starts and innings are each of these pitchers going to throw for the parent club.

Tony Lastoria and I touched on in this week’s “Smoke Signals”, but the starts and the innings are going to be there for these guys, regardless of who starts the season where and how the initial slotting of Talbot, Laffey, Huff, Carrasco, and Rondon plays out on April 5th. I don’t think that it’s much of a stretch to say that it’s going to be a veritable carousel at the back end of that rotation, not to mention a bullpen in which pitchers like Sipp and Smith and even Chris Perez retain options…and those are the guys guaranteed a spot out of Goodyear.

Back to that rotational mix, while the Indians are on record as saying that their top 3 is essentially set in stone, that tune is certain to change as the hills and valleys of the season present themselves. That is, if Westbrook gets traded or if Masterson is not able to improve his command or struggles against LH hitters or if Carmona shows that his Spring performance is just a mirage (breaking my heart in the process), the opportunities to start games are going to be there for the taking for the “losers” of the Spring Training battle or the pitchers that figure to start the season in Columbus.

While Masterson in the rotation and, most notably, Smith and Sipp in the bullpen may be guaranteed spots out of Goodyear, that means little on Memorial Day (or sooner) if any or all of them are struggling with options remaining and with plenty of other arms waiting for their turn in Columbus.

That being said, I’m all for a long leash for a couple of these guys (particularly in the rotation) in an attempt to give them consistent starts in MLB to see if they can be counted on for the rotation past 2010. Even with those long leashes for a couple of these guys, I don’t think that it’s a stretch to say that there’s a possibility that we see 5 to 6 starters (I would probably exclude Sowers from that sextet that was used to flesh out the Fangraphs’ piece) get anywhere from 12 to 20 starts this year for the Tribe as they attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff not just at the back-end-of-the-rotation, but throughout the whole pitching staff.

Who gets closer to 12 starts and who gets closer to 20 starts will bear itself out based on results in Cleveland (and Columbus) instead of just in Goodyear. Regardless, with Laffey going to the bullpen and either Huff or Carrasco heading to Columbus, their role and standing in the organization is going to evolve throughout the season and the opportunity will be there for them (and others) to assert themselves in what is likely to be a constantly fluctuating pitching staff.

Moving on to the local fishwraps, Terry Pluto (and it nice to have him on the ground in Goodyear, where he combines with Castro to make all other outlets obsolete) had an interesting bullet-pointed column on Friday, in which he pointed out that Matt LaPorta has yet to play an inning in the OF this Spring.

Still thinking Rusty’s the Opening Day 1B?
I don’t (and neither does Shelly Ocker)…but I still don’t think that means that Brantley’s the Opening Day LF.
Not that I don’t WANT Brantley to be the Opening Day LF, I just don’t think that he is. Unless Manny Acta brings with him a new philosophy that he’s able to convince the organization otherwise, the strategy of the Indians (love it or hate it…and I probably know which one of those feelings apply) is to start the season with their young ‘uns in AAA, calling them up later in the season to replace the player that has proved to be the washed-up veteran. The clause in Austin Kearns’ contract (and the service time issue with Brantley) makes me think that Kearns will get the nod in LF over Brantley.

Maybe this is Juan Gone-Grady all over again, but I think the extra year of control over Brantley in six years (when he’s 28) means more to the Indians than two months to start the 2009 season with a 22-year-old Brantley.

Moving on, if you remember from last week (or even if you don’t), Fangraphs is running an organizational ranking rundown (with the Tigers, White Sox, and Royals all coming in within the bottom 1/3 of MLB) and YOUR Cleveland Indians have made their appearance on the list, which attempts to measure the talent on hand for each team and the talent in the pipeline.

Since I know you’ve been waiting breathlessly to find out where the Indians rank, according to Fangraphs, in MLB so I’ll delay the announcement no longer.
The Indians came in at…#13…cue the applause and the backslaps all around!

Obviously this is a wildly subjective ranking (and Fangraphs admits as much), but it is interesting to see a perspective in the context of how the team stacks up (in their eyes at least) against the rest of MLB, and not just at the MLB level.

While the piece evaluating the future talent is erroneous at times (asserting that “Choo might be a platoon player when looking back at the recent swaps for other teams’ minor-league talent) and laughable at others, the one evaluating the current talent is a nice, clean (if not overwhelmingly insightful) look at the MLB roster, and here’s the big finish from Dave Cameron at Fangraphs in the summary piece:
The core of the team is young and cheap, as the organization has quality players or high level prospects at nearly every position on the diamond. The rotation is a big question mark, but there are a quantity of arms to sort through with differing levels of potential.
The bullpen is full of young power arms who rack up strikeouts. Give this team a year to mature and figure out how many starters they need to add, and they could be a serious contender in the AL again. There’s that much young talent in place.

And, despite the backlash against the Indians front office for the lack of results, this is still one of the best run organizations in the game. They have a large enough payroll to win, especially considering how many below market contracts they’ll have on the team, and the farm system is deep enough to provide necessary trade chips for when the organization shifts into go-for-it mode.

Don’t sleep on the Indians – they’re on the verge of being good once again.


While I know that few people who read this are “sleeping on the Indians”, with Opening Day 8 days away, the question of where that “verge of being good once again” actually exists is where answers need to come in 2010.

The roster is starting to flesh itself out, with the final decisions on the last spot in the rotation (my guess – Huff), the last two spots in the bullpen (my guess – Jen Lewis and Jamey Wright), the Branyan fiasco (my guess – Branyan to DL, Brantley to AAA, Kearns in LF, LaPorta at 1B), and the remaining bench spots (my guess – Marte, Crowe, and Hernandez) coming later in the week. However, the turnover from the Opening Day roster to the roster at even Memorial Day could be pronounced and heavy while the Indians filter through their options (particularly in the rotation) as they attempt to answer more questions about the team going forward instead of creating more questions past 2010.

If that can be accomplished, with certain players asserting themselves into the club’s future plans (again, particularly in the rotation), 2010 could be viewed as a success, regardless of record, and as a jumping-off point for the Indians to be “good once again”.

Tomahawks Where Hope Springs Eternal

Opening Day is only a week and a half away and with that in mind, let’s get some tomahawks in the air to catch up on the latest and greatest (comparatively speaking) from The Reservation as well as hitting on the activity of another certain AL Central team…
__________

While the news of Joe Mauer re-upping with the Twins being met with nearly universal praise, there is a feeling about it that I just can’t shake. As much as I love the fact that Mauer is staying in his hometown of the Twin Cities from the perspective of a local prep star achieving greatness in his hometown, the risk associated with the Twins meting out a deal like this (which again, I LOVE from the standpoint of a player staying with the team that drafted and developed him) is too big to ignore in that a huge portion of the Twins’ overall payroll figures to be given out to one player for a better portion of the next decade.

When Mark Teixiera was inked to a contract similar to Mauer’s, his 2009 salary ($20M) contributed a little less than 10% of the overall Yankee payroll for 2009. If Joe Mauer is going to be paid $23M annually starting in 2011, how much of the overall Twins’ payroll do you think he will make up?

Yes, the Twins have more revenue streams now that they’re moving into a new ballpark and they HAD to sign Mauer, but the Twins’ highest payroll prior to the 2010 season over the past 10 years was $71.4M in 2007. Maybe Mauer’s signing signals the beginning of a brand new day in Minnesota, but short of the Twins bumping up their annual payroll to the $125M range, it’s more likely that the Twins will attempt to build a team, ostensibly around Mauer, surrounding him with the same cheap talent that they’ve come to rely on for years.

The bigger issue than that however, is that while some will point to the Mauer deal as proof that competitive balance is alive and well in perpetuity and a sign that it’s up to teams like the Twins to “pony up” the cash for their own stars, the opposite is true as the risk that the Twins are exposing themselves to is a burden that will never fall onto the shoulders of the large-market teams.

Despite everything that you will read to the contrary in the coverage of this deal, the Mauer deal only further highlights the disparity in MLB’s competitive balance as (God forbid) if something should happen to Joe Mauer, in terms of injury or effectiveness, the Twins will find themselves with an albatross around their necks through the 2018 season.
Let me repeat that - through the 2018 season.

By no means am I suggesting that this injury or regression is obviously in Mauer’s future, but just consider the Hafner deal that the Indians meted out in the middle of the 2007 season.

First, take a look at the statistics for each player in the three years leading up to their extensions:
Hafner 2004 – Age 27
.311 BA / .410 OBP / .583 SLG / .993 OPS with 41 2B, 28 HR and 109 RBI in 573 PA

Hafner 2005 – Age 28
.305 BA / .408 OBP / .595 SLG / 1.003 OPS with 42 2B, 33 HR, and 108 RBI in 578 PA

Hafner 2006 – Age 29
.308 BA / .439 OBP / .659 SLG / 1.097 OPS with 31 2B, 42 HR, and 117 RBI in 563 PA

Mauer 2007 – Age 24
.293 BA / .382 OBP / .426 SLG / .808 OPS with 27 2B, 7 HR, and 60 RBI in 471 PA

Mauer 2008 – Age 25
.328 BA / .413 OBP / .451 SLG / .864 OPS with 31 2B, 9 HR, and 85 RBI in 633 PA

Mauer 2009 – Age 26
.365 BA / .444 OBP / .587 SLG / 1.081 OPS with 30 2B, 28 HR, and 96 RBI in 606 PA

We all can see the age difference in the comparison and by no means am I suggesting that Joe Mauer and Travis Hafner are similar players as Mauer’s positional value as a catcher (for the time being) trumps the restrictions that Hafner being a DH places on the flexibility of the Indians. Further, Mauer’s prime years are still ahead of him while Hafner’s are obviously behind him…and perhaps already were when he signed his extension in 2007 in hindsight.

Also, by this is not an attempt to besmirch Joe Mauer as a baseball player, just to remind people that Hafner ranked in 2nd in OPS in the AL during the 2004 and 2005 seasons and topped all AL batters in terms of OPS for the 2006 season. So as much as Indians’ fans are quick to point to Hafner being on the current roster as a contractual mistake, the 3-year body of work was there to justify his extension, just not in hindsight. That extension (the one that weighs the Indians’ ability to be financially flexible on a number of levels), it should be noted was for 4 additional years of Hafner at a price of $57M additional to his previous contract, a paltry sum compared to the 8-year, $184M that the Twins just committed to Mauer.

The introduction of the Hafner comparison is simply to serve as a startling reminder that past performance does not guarantee future success. Realizing that Travis Hafner (circa 2007) and Joe Mauer (circa 2010) exist on different planes, there is compelling evidence to suggest that a significant drop-off is possible for Mauer because of the possibility of a major injury (he is a catcher and has caught 600 games, a milestone that Sandy Alomar did not hit until 1996, when he was a 30-year-old, 6 years removed from his Rookie of the Year season of 1990) or serious regression because of a lingering injury.

While all of MLB is flush in flowery tones and “this is right for baseball” talk, the cautionary tales of Travis Hafner and Mike Sweeney (lest anyone forget that Sweeney averaged a .931 OPS in the 4 years prior to his extension in KC, after which he never played more than 122 games in a season while earning $55M over 5 years) are what bears worth mentioning in the context of Mauer’s new contract. They need to be referenced not to douse the excitement for the Mauer family and fans of the Twins, but instead to point to specific instances in which small-market teams were “doing right” in extending their own productive players, only to regret the contracts not too long after the signatures were dry.

With the opening of Target Field and with the Mauer signing, the Twins seem to entering a new era of their existence, with a new ballpark and new revenue streams, allowing them to offer a player like Mauer a deal commensurate with his abilities. What comes with that however, is risk and while an extension to Mauer can certainly work out just as beautifully as everyone sees it today, it can just as quickly devolve into the organization-choking contracts that burdened the Royals and the Indians with Sweeney and Hafner, new revenue streams or not.

The risk has been assumed by the Twins and it’s a risk that the large-market teams could only assume if they committed 20% or more to one particular player on their roster, a preposterous proposal. How Mauer’s performance stacks up against his contract will go a long way in determining whether the Twins just opened the door to consistent contention in the AL Central or whether it will serve as an anchor to the organization to the depths of the division.
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Quickly returning to the topic of Hafner, the topic du jour certainly seems to be that Pronk (or some facsimile of Pronk) has returned based on his Spring Training numbers (2 2B and 2 HR in 26 AB) and that may certainly be the case. However, I’ve played this “get-my-hopes-up” game too long (since about mid-2007) with Hafner’s shoulder and his inability to play (much less perform) in consecutive games prevents me from wholeheartedly buying into what some may be selling.

Look, I want to believe that the monster that put the numbers up at the top of the piece lurks somewhere within that #48 jersey, but I’ll wait until Hafner is playing in consecutive games, turning on fastballs and turning pitchers’ mistakes into Pronkville (if The Mezz still bears his nickname) souvenirs before declaring definitively that Pronk has returned.

The ball flies in the desert air and there’s only so much optimism (much less that of the type that has come back to bite me before) in me to go around…
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In fact, since there’s only so much unfounded optimism and hope to go around, I might as well be forthright about why the idea that Pronk is back is relegated to the borders of my brain. Truth is, I’m in the process of emotionally vesting myself completely in the return of one Senor Fausto Carmona.

I know…I know, the same thing applies with Carmona, in that I’ve played the “get-up-my-hopes” game with Carmona probably more than I have with Hafner. However, if Spring Training is all about pitchers “catching up” to the hitters, explain to my irrational mind how Carmona is leading the Cactus League in ERA and flat-out dominated the Cubs’ regulars earlier in the week?

If you’re not on board on the “Fausto is Back” bus that I’m driving, let’s go to the quotes on record after Fausto went 6 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and, most importantly, no walks…

Mike Redmond – “I can’t believe he was any better in ‘07 than he was today…Those last two innings, he took it to another level. He was phenomenal.”

Manny Acta – “That was great to see -- especially against the Cubs’ ‘A’ lineup…He didn’t even reach his pitch limit. That he could go six on 68 pitches tells you a lot.”

Lou Piniella – “The best Spring Training start I’ve seen here of any of the Spring Training pitchers who’ve faced us. He made it look relatively easy…hard sinker, pitched inside, had a nice breaking ball. He made it look easy. He was impressive.”

Redmond – “I know I’d much rather catch him than try to hit against him… [Cubs batters] weren't having a lot of fun. You could see him get more confidence with each inning. You could see him get stronger as the game went along.”

Redmond – “Today, nobody could go up there to take pitches. They had to swing, because he was pounding the strike zone.”

Sound like the same soundbytes that we heard from Victor and the rest of the merry band of 2007 Tribesman?

The final quote is obviously the most important quote among them all (and remember that Redmond was on that Minnesota team with Torii Hunter, who said that facing Carmona in 2007 “felt like being hung-over”), in that the issue that has arisen with Carmona since that 2007 season has been his sudden predilection for walks, a trend that reared its ugly head for him after the 2007 season.

While I attempt to temper my enthusiasm that some semblance of an effective pitcher has been found in the Arizona desert, let’s all remember that Carmona just turned 26 this past December (Trevor Crowe is a month older, by the by) and even if he never fully re-captures the dominance of his 2007 season (see how I’m tempering my enthusiasm), the prospect of having Carmona as an effective upper-portion-of-the-rotation starter goes longer in making this team competitive in a shorter timeframe than any other (mildly conceivable) possibility on the roster.

Again, let us not forget that the Indians still hold club options on Carmona through the 2014 season (during which he’d be paid $12M), when he’ll be all of 30 years old. If he’s even a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater and no longer the ¡Fausto! that so famously could not be distracted by midges, the most questionable portion of the Indians in the short-and-long-term future can find an answer.
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While we’re on the topic of promising signs this Spring, realizing that Spring Training stats are just that, how about the fact that after Monday’s tilt against the Cubs, the Indians led all MLB teams in Spring Training with 6.63 runs per game?

Sure, but the offense was supposed to be the strength of the team, right?
Well, consider that (after Monday’s game) the Indians’ pitching staff had the lowest ERA in Spring Training at 3.38, the lowest WHIP in Spring Training at 1.20, the lowest H/9 in Spring Training at 8.20, and the second lowest Batting Average Against in Spring Training at .241

Curiously, the team ranked 28th in K/9 among all MLB teams this Spring, meaning that the Indians aren’t blowing anybody away this Spring (OK, Masterson is with 13.94 K/9), but they’re minimizing damage done by compiling the second lowest BB/9 this Spring and, as a result of that, ranked 7th in K/BB.

Maybe this is all a desert mirage, or maybe this “revolutionary” virtue of pounding the strike zone currently being preached is finding some attentive ears. Regardless, it’s hard not to notice the BB/9 being put up by the “competitors” for the rotation:
Talbot – 0.79
Carmona – 1.38
Huff – 1.46
Masterson – 2.61
Westbrook – 2.84
Laffey – 3.38

Beyond those guys, Carrasco has compiled a 2.25 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with 8 K and only 3 BB in his 12 Spring innings while Rondon did not allow a run in 5 2/3 innings, notching 5 K against 0 BB en route to a 0.88 WHIP before being cut late last week.

If those are your 8 top starting options for 2010 (sorry, Jeremy), maybe some surprises are coming in terms of the Rotation…or maybe it is not yet April and Spring Fever is running rampant on the North Coast.
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In case you haven’t noticed (and judging by comment activity and activity on various Tribe forums…you haven’t), Austin Kearns has made a little bit of a push recently in Goodyear as he attempts to claim a spot on the 25-man roster out of Spring Training. With the likelihood that Rusty Branyan’s going to start the season on the DL growing (and with Tony Lastoria reporting that Mike Brantley’s likely to start the season in AAA and stay for “a month of two”, regardless of extenuating circumstances), it would certainly seem that LF would be there for the taking for Kearns at the outset of the season.

With Kearns starting to perform in Spring Training, throw this log on top of that fire as Jon-Paul Morosi at Fox Sports reports on the stipulations contained in the “minor-league” contracts signed by Kearns and Jamey Wright:
Two players competing for spots on the Indians’ Opening Day roster have “out” clauses in their contracts, but one club official said those provisions “will not have an impact” on the makeup of the team.

Right-hander Jamey Wright can ask for his release if he’s not on the major-league roster by April 2. Wright, who is competing for a bullpen spot, is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in five appearances this spring.

Outfielder Austin Kearns can make a similar request if the Indians don’t place him on their roster by April 3. Kearns has batted .250 in 11 games while making a bid for playing time in left field.

Um…so, Opening Day is April 5th, so both basically need to be on the MLB roster by Opening Day or they’re free to go wherever they wish. Given the Branyan injury and the Brantley service time “issue”, does anyone else get the feeling that Kearns is going to make this team and is likely to be the starting LF? You could believe the lead-in to Morosi’s snippet that “those provisions ‘will not have an impact’ on the makeup of the team”, but I have a hard time believing that given the injuries to Branyan and Wood (plus the service time management of Brantley) that so obviously open the door for those two players to make the club out of Goodyear.

If Brantley heads to Columbus and Branyan heads off to the DL, that would put Kearns in LF, LaPorta at 1B, Crowe as the 4th OF, and Andy Marte as the back-up 1B/3B to start the season…sound about right?

As for the other player mentioned by Morosi, you might as well as pencil Jamey Wright into one of the three spots now open in the bullpen, with Jensen Lewis likely getting another and either Aaron Laffey or Mitch Talbot getting the final spot.

Fully aware of the school of thought that exists that Laffey or Huff is better served starting the season in Columbus to “keep them stretched out” in case a starter is needed, I’m still of the belief that there’s going to be A LOT of innings for these long men to eat up, particularly in the early going, and having the cavalry (if you can really call these guys the “cavalry”) in the bullpen instead of in Columbus continues to make more sense to me. Regardless, all of these guys are going to get plenty of starts this year, but that’s a topic for another day.

Back to the “out clauses”, if Wright isn’t on the team on April 2nd (and there’s no reason for him not to now that Wood is injured and the Indians seem to be sitting on an abundance of opportunity in the bullpen), then he can explore options on his own and one would have to think that the Indians would give Wright the first shot at sticking with the parent club over players retaining options or without those “out clauses” in their Minor League deals.
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Finally, it is worth noting that MLB Network has been running their “30 Clubs in 30 Days” series and on Wednesday night…YOUR Cleveland Indians went under the microscope.

In case you missed the first airing, the show will re-air on Thursday at 9:00AM, 11:00 AM, 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM on the MLB Network.

A Lazy Sunday with the Future Creeping Closer

As my bracket has been shredded by the Madness of March and while Winter attempts to make one final pass over the North Coast, let’s get rolling right away on a Lazy Sunday to think of warm, sunny days at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and of whether a certain team from Cleveland could fit into Cinderella’s slipper this summer.
And with that, we’re off…

The biggest news of the week obviously is the news that Kerry Wood will be missing 6 to 8 weeks because of an upper back injury. While this development causes the dominoes to fall in the bullpen, perhaps the most important factor in this injury news is that the vesting option in Wood’s contract (if he finishes 55 games in 2010, his 2011 option for $11 vests) is not going to be possible for Wood to reach, considering that he’s not going to be seeing action until May at the earliest, assuming he’s even healthy at that point and won’t need multiple rehab appearances to get back to the Indians.

Of course, the fact that his option is unlikely to vest could make Wood MORE attractive on the trade market come July as teams won’t have to entertain the possibility of acquiring an $11M commitment in 2011 if they traded for Wood to augment their 2010 bullpen. Of course, his attractiveness in July makes the assumption that he comes back healthy AND effective, which is no given as there exists a very real possibility that Wood attempts to come back too early to justify his contract or to put a body of work forward in what could be his Free Agency season that would make him attractive in the off-season, compromising his effectiveness as a late-inning reliever.

As a quick aside on Spring injuries and Free Agency seasons, did anyone catch that CP Lee has been sidelined with a “right abdominal strain”, which is supposed to set him back for a week?

Everyone remembers the last time Clifton Phifer battled this same injury in Spring Training, right?
It was 2007, the year that saw Lee rush back and never find his rhythm, causing a late-season demotion, the tip of the cap, and his exclusion from the postseason roster. Everyone knows that Lee’s pitching for a giant contract at the end of this season (likely with the name “Steinbrenner” somewhere in it), right?
This could get interesting up in the Pacific Northwest…

But I digress, back to Wood and the immediate impact on the team as the Indians immediately will slot Chris Perez (or CFP, which would be “Chris…um, Firetruckin’ Perez, as Nino at The Tribe Daily has taken to calling him because of Perez’s professed love of “Eastbound and Down”) into the role of closer in Wood’s absence. There was certainly a prevailing school of thought that Perez would be closing games for the Indians at some point in 2010…just not to start the season.

Perez has been thought of as a “Closer-of-the-Future”, even when a member of the Cardinals, and his 10.74 K/9 rate ranked 16th among all MLB pitchers with more than 40 IP last year (career MiLB K/9 rate of 12.0) showed why he was seen as a power pitcher with a bright future at the back end of the bullpen. However, the greatest strides that Perez made last season had little to do with the strikeout totals and more to do with his BB totals. As Andrew Simon adroitly points out in a 2010 preview for the Indians, “after the Indians acquired him in the middle of last season, Chris Perez cut his walks per nine innings from 5.7 to 3.2.” If you want something to watch with Perez once he toes the rubber in the 9th, his BB rate may be more telling than any other statistic as he walked an improbable 75 batters in 108 innings in the Minors and his success may be tied very neatly by his ability to limit the free pass.

However, the biggest effect of Wood’s injury does not have anything to do with Perez slotting into the closer role, but rather the way that Perez’s ascension to the role of closer pushes everyone else in the bullpen up that ladder of roles. With CFP out of the set-up role, that 8th inning now falls into the lap of either Rafael Perez (and his 1.89 WHIP and .899 OPS against from 2009), Tony Sipp (who has walked 6 and given up 5 hits, while striking out only 2 in his 5 innings of work this Spring), and Joe Smith (who has given up 7 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings this Spring and is better suited as a straight right-on-right reliever). Sorting out those arms in the 6th or 7th innings is a completely different animal from seeing these guys vie for the spot in the 8th inning, with the recent bullpen struggles in Cleveland bearing testament to that.

Essentially, this is the same reason that Minnesota should be worried with Joe Nathan likely to be out for the season, in that losing a 9th inning reliever forces pitchers who would normally slot into middle relief into the 7th inning and pushes arms that a team wouldn’t generally use late in a game with a lead into those very games. Of course, this could open up some opportunities for guys like Sipp or Rafael Perez to assert themselves as back-of-the-bullpen mainstays and could even open up meaningful spots in the bullpen for guys like Jesse Ray Todd or even Josh Judy earlier than expected, but in the short-term, it throws what looked to be a fairly pleasant progression in the bullpen into a bit of confusion.

All told, it looks like the “future” starts earlier than expected in the bullpen and the young arms will have more opportunities (particularly later in games) to show that they should be counted on for 2010 and beyond.

If the “future starts now” in the bullpen, what is to be made of the recent reports concerning 2B?

In the midst of some notes from Goodyear, Tony Lastoria reported that:
The real interesting story may come later in camp as I’m hearing if Mark Grudzielanek continues to play well and makes a run these last few weeks that Luis Valbuena may be the odd man out and be sent to Columbus to start the season. Even though the Indians have played him some at third base this spring, Grudzielanek is viewed strictly as a second baseman at the moment.

So…is the organization hedging on the idea that Louie V is the Opening Day 2B?
I found it interesting that Hoynes decided to do a piece on Louie the Fifth right after this nugget from Tony, with Hoynes writing that:
When spring training opened, Acta said Valbuena was his second baseman. Acta added that the Indians weren’t in the business of turning 24-year-old infielders into platoon players…“Valbuena has played well the whole camp,” Acta said. “He hasn't done anything to hurt his chances to be our everyday guy. We like Grudzielanek and Rodriguez has done well. We’ve got two weeks to go, but Louie has done everything we’ve asked him to do…He’s had some good at-bats against left-handed pitchers. He has done nothing to change our minds.”

The “we aren’t in the business of turning 24-year-old infielders into platoon players” comment from Acta is still a highlight of the Spring for me (if only because it represents such a departure from managerial comments in years past), but let’s not pretend that there aren’t issues with Valbuena’s ability to hit LHP. While he only has 48 MLB plate appearances against LHP in MLB (even though he’s played in 121 MLB games), consider what Valbuena’s splits looked like in the Minors:
2005 vs. LHP - .624 OPS
2005 vs. RHP - .808 OPS

2006 vs. LHP - .748 OPS
2006 vs. RHP - .738 OPS

2007 vs. LHP - .510 OPS
2007 vs. RHP - .795 OPS

2008 vs. LHP - .717 OPS
2008 vs. RHP - .843 OPS

In 2009, he only had 78 AB in Columbus, so the samples are just too small to develop any kind of opinion in his AAA time last year; but those numbers account for 441 plate appearances against LHP and 1,230 against RHP, so the disparity in those numbers (except for 2006) do cause some pause in terms of Valbuena’s ability to hit LHP if he’s only show proficient in doing so in one of the last 5 years.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d still prefer to see Valbuena get everyday AB from the beginning of the season to see how he adjusts to playing everyday (against RHP and LHP) in MLB. Looming over the whole “splits” concern, there is the service time issue and, while I know that people don’t want to hear about that and want to throw the young guys out there now and allow them to sink or swim on their own, Valbuena (with 1 year and 12 days of MLB service time) needs to spend some time in the Minors to…here it comes…manage his service time to push off his first year of arbitration and of Free Agency.

That being said, I think that there is an easy solution to this service time issue that doesn’t include thinking about a season starting with Grudzielanek and Branyan (although Terry Pluto reports that the Indians “have to be concerned” about Rusty’s back…even if they’re not saying so publicly) on the right side of the infield to start the season. Quite simply, the Indians can start the season with Valbuena in MLB and demote him at some point in the season for a month or so. They can blame the demotion on the aforementioned struggles against LHP (regardless of what he’s doing in MLB) and simply call up Jason Donald (who would, like Valbuena, be playing 2B every day) to take his place, while Valbuena’s service time issue is rectified. In that scenario, the Indians get to see a body of work put forth by both Louie the Fifth and Donald while ensuing that Valbuena’s service time issue is fixed.

Regardless of the machinations in the bullpen and in the lineup, the big issues are still in the rotation as outlined by Ryan Richards (usually of the LGT), who wrote a great piece for The Hardball Times. In it, he is right to assert that “by this time next year, the Indians will have taken a big step forward if they have only a couple spots in the rotation to fill, instead of having to fill the entire rotation” and absolutely nails the major issue staring the Indians in the face as 2010 dawns:
The absence of starting pitching throughout the organization was what largely led to last year’s mid-season trades of Lee and Martinez, and while the Indians now have some depth thanks to those deals, they don’t yet have a credible rotation. The three pitchers who are expected to head the staff (Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona) all have serious flaws, and in most rotations would be classified as back-end projects. Westbrook hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in almost two seasons, Carmona was a disaster in 2009, and Masterson is still transitioning from the bullpen. Again, that’s the top of the rotation.

As a quick aside, here’s a little snippet about one of the guys at the top of the rotation from Nick Cafardo’s Sunday Baseball Notes column in the Boston Globe:
Looking for a good trade-deadline pitching option? Westbrook will be Cleveland’s Opening Day starter after spending the last two seasons recuperating from Tommy John surgery. Westbrook, 32, won 44 games from 2004-06 and will earn $11 million in the final year of a three-year, $33 million deal. He has had a strong spring training and looks to be healthy.

As for the back of the rotation (and it will be interesting to see how the Wood injury affects the Indians’ decision on who starts the season in the rotation and if one of the pitchers starts the season in the bullpen), here’s an interesting little quote from Acta concerning Spring Training results against what the coaching staff may be looking for in terms of performance:
“Talbot wasn’t as sharp as he was the last time, but he did make pitches when he had to. Too bad he ran out of pitches,” Acta said, alluding to Talbot having reached his pitch limit by the time he struck out Corey Brown for the first out in the fourth.
“Huff stayed aggressive and continued to pound the strike zone,” Acta added, discounting the home runs off the lefty by Kevin Kouzmanoff and Matt Carson.

Acta said this after “Unleash the Fury”, Mitch Talbot, went 3 1/3 scoreless innings on Saturday and Dave Huff gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings, also on Saturday. How much of this is empty quotes or motivational tactics or even the truth remains to be seen, but it’s a lesson to not look too closely at Spring Training numbers or even quotes in an attempt to read the tea leaves.

Back to the piece on issues facing the Indians, here’s a piece on the Detroit pitching staff from Rob Neyer at ESPN, reacting to the rumors that Dontrelle Willis may be working his way back into the Tigers’ rotation:
* Max Scherzer averaged fewer than six innings per start in the National League last season;

* Jeremy Bonderman is 14-14 with a 4.96 ERA over the last three seasons;

* Nate Robertson is 18-27 with a 5.52 ERA over the last three seasons; and

* Dontrelle Willis is ... well, you know about Dontrelle Willis.

They say Eddie Bonine's in the rotation mix, too.

If you choose whichever three of those you like, and add them to Verlander and Rick Porcello, do you think you’ve got the rotation of a contending team? All those bad contracts -- Willis and Bonderman and Robertson, but also Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen -- eventually had to roost, and it looks like this is the Year of the Chicken.

To go further with the topic of the Central, Fangraphs has been running a countdown of organizations from #30 to #1 with Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explaining the evaluation process thusly:
Having a chance of winning it all this year is great. Having a great farm system is great. Having a forward thinking management staff is great. But by themselves, none of those things are enough to earn a high grade overall. We’re really trying to highlight the balance between winning now and winning in the future. There will be teams that are high on the list because of how good they may be in 2011 or 2012, while teams that are better in 2010 will be behind them. It’s not just a short term thing, and these aren’t projected order of finish for 2010. It’s our perspective on the total health of where each team is, relative to their peers, going forward.

The countdown has only made it to #21 and it is more than informative as they’ve analyzed both current and future talent for each team. You may find it interesting that 3 of the teams in the Central rank among the bottom 10 ranked to date…and none of those three teams in the bottom 10 are the Indians:
Detroit Tigers - #21
You can’t build a long term winner through free agency alone, and the Tigers are now paying the price for some of the contracts they’ve handed out in years past. They’re attempting to rebuild the core of the team while also contending, but from my perspective, it looks like they’re not going to get maximum results from either effort. The effect – an older team with lots of future question marks that isn’t quite good enough to win in 2010. That’s not a great spot to be in.

Chicago White Sox - #24
But while this is not a bad team, neither is it a good team, and the future doesn’t look especially bright...With the Twins moving into a new park that should increase their revenues, the division will only get more challenging, and the White Sox are in danger of getting left behind. 2010 is going to be a critical year this team. With some breaks, they could challenge for a playoff spot, but they also need to continue to add young talent to the organization. Trying to do both at the same time is not easy.

Kansas City Royals - #29
The Royals are behind the curve, and they’ve got a lot of catching up to do before they can contend again. Moore may believe in his process, but he shouldn’t. The Royals are bad now, they’re going to be bad next year, and they’ll be bad until someone injects some new thought into that front office.

Take all that for what it’s worth (and the Indians could easily show up as #20 on the list, not too far removed from the rest of their AL Central brothers), but the analysis on both the White Sox and Tigers attempting to simultaneously compete and add young talent does bring to mind those Indians’ teams of the early 2000s. Back then, the Indians thought that they could have their cake and eat it too as they attempted to contend and rebuild at the same time. We all know how that worked out for them in that it just delayed the “tear-down” that began with the Colon deal, so how the newest “tear-down” plays out should be begin to have answers in 2010.

To that end, in case you haven’t seen it, there’s an even-handed and (dare I say) optimistic season preview for the Indians at CBS Sports.com that gets into the whole “managing the cycles” speech that we’ve been hearing for a while now.

Past that “old news” here’s a bit that I haven’t seen elsewhere that gets to that point of contention vs. rebuilding, which is a quote attributed to Sandy, talking about the team today compared to the teams of the early 90s, when he arrived in Cleveland:
“I think the amount of talent we have here now is a little more we had back then,” Alomar, now the team’s first-base coach, says of those early-‘90s Indians. “We had some talent then, but there was no mix of veteran players. Now there's Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook. There are a few front-line players.
“Back in ‘90, ‘91 and ‘92, it took a little while until Eddie Murray, Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser came. That’s when everything got put together and we were really good.
‘When John Hart felt guys were ready to compete, that’s when he brought in Murray, Martinez, Hershiser, Tony Pena.”

At first blush, it looks like an extremely positive comment until you see the years that Alomar references. The records of the three teams that he mentions were:
1990 – 77-85
1991 – 57-105
1992 – 76-86

As long as Alomar’s not talking about the 1991 season (his second with the club…and did you know that he only averaged 70 games a year from 1991 to 1995?), when the Indians lost 105 games, I think I’m OK with the comparison. It should be noted that in 1993, the team went 76-86 again just before the break-out (if interrupted) 2004 season, so while Alomar’s words look great in that “the amount of talent we have here now is a little more than we had back then”, putting it in the proper context and timeframe is important.

Is the team destined for a couple of 76 to 77 win seasons before (hopefully) breaking out into contention, or is the team only a few steps away from that break-out?

With Wood on the shelf, Branyan still yet to play in a Cactus League game and the roster finally rounding into shape, the future may be starting sooner than previously thought on the North Coast…and that may not be such a bad thing.