Living in the Now On a Lazy Sunday

On the day in which we all (hopefully) properly appreciate our Mothers and Wives, maybe it’s time to appreciate what’s happening with this Indians’ team and attempt to live in the “now” instead of overanalyzing the past (admittedly guilty here) or waiting impatiently for that other shoe to drop.  It is nearly mid-May and this Indians’ team is once again in 1^st place and, while the end of 2011 (after an even hotter start) left…um, a little to be desired, as have the years since 2007, when did we all become so bitter and cynical that we can’t enjoy a 1^st place team and are preoccupied by ancillary topics?

Maybe that bitterness and cynicism is ingrained in us as Cleveland fans, but has the collective misery grown to such a degree that instead of talking about a 1^st place team in mid-May and what they ARE and COULD BE, we’re talking about and listing all the reasons that people are giving for not enjoying this or creating excuses to justify their extended misery to the point that a diversion from life – like baseball or sports – becomes a source of vitriol and unpleasantness?

For the past week, I’ve seen that dead horse on the ground over there – the Tribe’s attendance issue – get worked over…not that it means that there weren’t pieces that don’t deserve your eyes, with Let’s Go Tribe providing eye-opening hard analysis, Zach Meisel giving the pertinent quotes and story, and with Anthony Castrovince penning the takeaway that I’ve felt about this apparent new rite of Spring on the North Coast for long enough that I’m tired of forming an “opinion” on this attendance “issue” year after year.   Back in July of 2007, I wrote a piece wondering “Where is Everyone?” as the Indians ranked 25^th in attendance, despite being 52-30 (!!!) and with the team about to run away with the AL Central, en route to the ALCS.  Much of what was written then still applies (though the names have changed) and I’m tired of pretending that this attendance “issue” is one that we’re just opening our doors to find staring us in the face.  This has been happening for nearly a decade now, through two complete tear-downs and rebuilds and anyone who feigns surprise or attempts to posit an individual reason (because there are many) for why this is the case isn’t being honest with themselves or wants to stand on some higher moral ground.

The attendance conversation is a conversation that takes place every year as it represents a lazy talking point for a local media that has grown increasingly lazy and uninterested in the team as a whole or in what transpires on the field, instead racing for page clicks by feeding the beast of pessimism and negativity that has pervaded this town.  Instead of reading or hearing thoughtful analysis about the team, the conversation turns to the hot-button issue (the attendance), and maybe some of that is a by-product of the times we live in and maybe some of it comes as a result of the Indians’ place in the pecking order (as I’m forced to watch TJ Ward tackle a Chris Farley impersonator in front of a car on a TV commercial over and over again), but what disappoints is that it (the attendance, or lack thereof) becomes SOLELY the focus of the Indians’ coverage, despite the Indians being in 1^st place.

Now, if you want to have a discussion about whether Cleveland is still a 3-team town or if the soon-to-open casino is going to take people AWAY from coming to Tribe games –as Clevelanders can’t seem to get in line fast enough to continue to give Dan Gilbert their money (and the benefit of the doubt), despite his history – that’s an interesting conversation…even if it’s one that nobody really wants to have.  Regardless, the attendance issue has been here, is here, and is likely to be here and I’m tired of it detracting from my enjoyment of this team.  Because in case you haven’t noticed (and here is where I show restraint to not quote Harry Doyle), the Indians came out of the gates fast (again) and are atop the AL Central (again) as we approach the 40-game mark.

And while everyone is off thinking, kvetching, or attempting to justify the lack of attendance, they’re missing a young team that (again) has gotten off to a hot start and is making strides toward what could be an awfully fun summer.  While the attendance talk may be compelling at some level, the fact that Shapiro told Zach Meisel that the Indians are “not surprised and not worried” about the attendance means that the Indians aren’t in the same situation as the White Sox were last year and may not be all that relevant to the way that the ballclub operates or anticipates its revenue…so why should we even pay attention to it?

What deserves our attention is THIS team and, despite the fact that we’re still getting to know these players (while subconsciously attempting to NOT get too attached to them because we know how MLB works), this Indians’ team has exciting, likable, and compelling players that are quickly becoming part of our sports enjoyment.  Now, the excitement may not be fully palpable as the fact that a lot of these players don’t have a long track record that guarantees any future success, meaning we’re all kind of (as my friend Tyler put it) “waiting for the Tigers to ignite” and take off in the division.  But that hasn’t happened and while there is concern in the rotation (as Ubaldo goes under the video “microscope” again) as well as dark spots in the lineup and front end of the bullpen, there are players and trends that are emerging on this team that have to excite even the most bitter and cynical Indians’ “fan”.

Perhaps my thinking on this is colored by watching many of the games thus far this season with my baseball-obsessed 5-year-old, who gets genuinely excited every time that Kipnis comes to the plate and jumps up when Kotchman (whom he quite innocently calls “Katie” before I correct him, leading to his embarrassment) makes a phenomenal play at 1B.  He gets worried when Sipp loads the bases and makes innocuous statements like, “you know Ubaldo isn’t really pitching that well Dad, because he keeps walking people”, but it doesn’t detract from the interest and building love that he has for baseball and for the Indians.  Maybe that’s setting him up for a lifetime of disappointment (and I often wonder this as a parent), but baseball is fun for him – fun to watch, fun to talk about, and fun to think about. 

Frankly, isn’t that why we spend our time following a sport like baseball and a team like the Indians…for the fun of it?

Certainly, what’s transpired since those halcyon days in October of 2007 have left many people wondering when the “fun” starts again, but the current Indians’ team does have a bit of that spark to them.  No…they’re not perfect and yes, this might not last, but let’s all acknowledge that the team has 5 players right now that are among the top 35 or 40 AL hitters in a number of categories and for a fanbase (present company included) that spent a good majority of the off-season complaining about being a “bat away”, check out where these players rank in some offensive categories among AL hitters:

Cabrera

.950 OPS (8^th in AL)

168 OPS+ (6^th in AL)

.410 wOBA (8^th in AL)

Kipnis

.844 OPS (22^nd in AL)

136 OPS+ (22^nd in AL)

.373 wOBA (21^st in AL)

Hannahan

.843 OPS (24^th in AL)

138 OPS+ (18^th in AL)

.364 wOBA (24^th in AL)

Hafner

.839 OPS (26^th in AL)

138 OPS+ (20^th in AL)

.367 wOBA (23^rd in AL)

Santana

.803 OPS (36^th in AL)

128 OPS+ (28^th in AL)

.351 wOBA (33^rd in AL)

Check out those lists (here and here) to fully grasp how other teams’ players rank in those categories and how that Indians’ quintet stacks up…right now, at least.

While that may not necessarily be sustainable for some of them (Hannahan is higher on each of these lists than BOTH Miggy and Prince), there are pieces and parts that are becoming more than just “pieces and parts” and it (surprisingly) may not include The BLC.  Certainly, the “return” of Choo would make this offense that much more potent (as I note that Brantley and Kotchman are at the bottom of most of those lists, even if they’re each improving and the 29-year-old Kotchman has a higher OPS in the month of May in MLB at .772 than the 27-year-old “He Who Shall Not Be Named” does in the month of May in AAA at .669), but the troika a Cabrera, Kipnis, and Santana form quite a triumvirate…and one that isn’t going away for a while.

Beyond the offense (which is still tops in the AL Central in runs scored per game), the bullpen boasts some strong arms and, even if the relievers are not universally dominant, to see the back-end of a bullpen emerge this early in a season is nearly unprecedented in these parts.  Throw in the personas of this crew (and I’m talking individually, not as a group) and the Indians’ bullpen is full of talented young players that are still rising and don’t figure to go away for a while.

So how about enjoying the “rise” of these players?

How about the organization touting THESE players to generate fan interest instead of relying on nostalgia – either real (like Lofton) or perceived (the Joe Carter bobblehead) – to draw the interest of the fanbase?  Sure, there may be some hesitation to promote individual players, knowing what we know about how these players eventually end up wearing uniforms that don’t say “CLEVELAND”, but this is an exciting group of players who is winning games in a compelling way, night in and night out.

Certainly, there are question marks and points of concern that may be distracting, but outside of that team from Arlington (that the Tribe took 2 of 3 from) that is lapping the field in the AL West, most MLB teams have question marks and concerns.

Rather than endlessly focusing on those deficiencies (and admittedly, I’m as guilty of this as anyone by revisiting past drafts and the failure of certain trades or picking a whipping boy(s) to wail away at), why not see players like Cabrera, Kipnis, Santana, Masterson, Pestano, Perez for what they are – a new “core” of a still-building, yet burgeoning, team?

Often, I think of that brilliant rethinking of the “What If” that Scott Bricker did at LGT last year (which, at the time, represented a sharp departure from what that ad campaign had been, with the Indians adopting something close to this after Brick put it together) and wonder why we can’t wonder what’s going to happen in the positive sense?

This is a young and exciting team and Johnny Damon said as much to B-Pro’s John Perrotto in a recent interview:

On what he can bring to the American League Central-leading Indians: 

“Hopefully I can teach these guys a few things, but this is a pretty good club with or without me. This team is pretty awesome. They have a chance to win now, but they’re also developing for the future and not too many teams can say that. That was very enticing to me to join this club, plus the fact they wanted me. Over the last couple years, I’ve been a mentor to teams, probably teaching them too much if you look at the Tigers and Tampa Bay. But that’s what I do. I want everyone to have a fair shake at this game and approach the way I approach it. Hopefully we’ll be very good here this year and these young kids will be great for the future.”

--snip--

On joining a franchise that hasn’t won a World Series since 1948: 

“I know Cleveland needs something to grasp on to right now. I remember coming here from 1995-2000 and how crazy this place was and how the fans rallied behind the team. It was special and we feel this is a team that can do it, too. Hopefully it happens this year but I know in the years to come they think they can help revive the city.”

Certainly, Damon’s always been good for a solid quote (here’s a great piece from the New York Times on Damon and this Tribe team) and he may or may not actually believe this, but whether HE does or not, why can’t we?

Damon says that the Indians “have a chance to win now, but they’re also developing for the future and not too many teams can say that” and while you can take that with a grain of salt if you want to, it doesn’t change the fact that it is mid-May and the Indians are in 1^st place…so, how about enjoying this?

So much time is spent analyzing the past to figure out how we got here or worrying about a future to wonder where we’re going, we forget to enjoy the present…the “now” that we’re seeing as this team is winning exciting games, with marketable, bankable young players that can’t really be boasted anywhere else on the Cleveland sports landscape, if you’re looking at actual production and not just projection.

Maybe you don’t want to hear (or believe) that “Cleveland needs something to grasp on to right now” with Damon remembering the never-going-to-happen-again electricity of the late-90’s as it invokes the attendance “discussion” once more, but this town needs something tangible to appreciate.  The Indians have, once again, come out of the gates fast as they attempt to capture the hearts of a town that so badly wants a winner with all of its heart while attempting to avoid the heartbreak that has caused our skepticism.

Whether or not they can capture those hearts or continue to capture those wins remains to be seen, but it sure will be fun finding out…

Catching Up With the System

It’s no secret that I believe that catcher is the most important position on the baseball field. The catcher controls the game defensively, works with the pitching staff, and is basically the quarterback on the field. The Indians are fortunate to have an offensive star and underrated defender behind the plate in Carlos Santana, a guy who clearly put in a lot of work this offseason in improving his defense. They’re also lucky enough to have former Gold Glove catcher Sandy Alomar on the big league coaching staff, and former catcher Dave Wallace as their minor league catching coordinator. Wallace was an elite defensive catcher in his own right, spending seven seasons in the minor leagues but never quite hitting enough to get a shot in the show. Having Wallace shepherd the catchers in the organization is a fantastic opportunity, as if anyone knows how to play the position it is Wallace. He’s managing the Lake County Captains this year as well after spending last season at the helm of the Mahoning Valley Scrappers. Wallace is a rising star in the organization, and has future major league manager written all over him. I got a chance to sit down with Wallace in spring training and talk to him about the catchers in the organization, and we had a really good talk about the players he has come to know so well.

The first catcher we talked about isn’t really a catcher anymore, as the Indians decided this offseason that Chun Chen’s bat was too far ahead of his glove and have moved him primarily to first base. Signed as an international free agent in 2008, Chen has caught just three games for AA Akron this year, while playing 16 at 1B and 7 at DH. I asked Wallace what Chen had to do in order to stay behind the plate, and he talked about how much Chen has improved behind the plate in the past couple of years, but still how far he had to go in terms of cleaning up his release, working on his footwork, and just not rushing things when he’s behind the dish. Wallace believes that with time, Chen could become an adequate defensive catcher, but with an organization that’s so stocked with catchers and relatively barren at corner infield though, the decision was made to move Chen from catcher to 1B.

The 23-year old converted 3B is now hitting .289/.367/.392 for AA Akron this year, with just 1 HR, 7 RBI, 12 BB and 26 K in 26 games. He hit .262/.330/.451 with 16 HR in the Eastern League last year, so while the AVG and OBP have improved, the power hasn’t really materialized yet this year. As a catcher, Chen’s bat is outstanding, but as a first baseman it is merely average. If he’s going to have a future as a first baseman at the major league level, the bat is going to have to improve. I think that if the Indians didn’t have such an embarrassment of riches at the catcher position in the system, Chen would still be a full-time catcher today. As Wallace said in our interview, “to have this many quality catchers in the system is a little rare; we’ve talked about it amongst the staff how fortunate we are as an organization back there.”

Going from one extreme to the other, we next discussed AA Akron’s primary catcher, Roberto Perez. When I told Wallace that Perez was the best defensive catcher I’d ever seen up close, he agreed, saying “I would agree with that; he’s special back there. A lot of times we like to use big league guys as examples for these guys to watch film, and the guy I compare Roberto to is Yadier Molina. I do not do that without the utmost respect for Yadier, as he’s the best in the bigs right now, but mannerisms, skill, talent…Roberto looks like him back there and really does some stuff that reminds you of Yadier.” That’s the ultimate compliment that you can pay to a guy defensively, and the outgoing Wallace used a hushed, almost revered tone when making the comparison. Perez is a tremendous catch-and-throw guy who moves well behind the plate, blocks everything in the dirt, really handles his pitchers well and absolutely controls the other teams running game.

With all that being said, why is Perez not regarded more highly as a top prospect in the system? Well, as good as his defense is, Perez struggles with the bat. His career line as a professional is .241/.369/.350 with 12 HR in 288 games. He’s got good patience, a little bit of power, but not much of a hit tool. This season with AA Akron, he’s put up a line of .234/.315/.344 with 1 HR, 6 BB and 17 K in 21 games. Because of his struggles with the bat, Perez’s ceiling is probably a defense-oriented backup catcher in the major leagues. Still, that can be a valuable role on a team and Perez can carve out a long career in that role. He’s got one major-league quality tool already, and that’s more than most players in AA can say.

Drafted in the 4^th round in last year’s draft, catcher Jake Lowery played for Wallace last year in Mahoning Valley and jumped straight to high-A Carolina this year. He started out hot for the Scrappers last season, but started to wear down as the strain of a full college season plus the New York-Penn League season took their toll on the young catcher, but still ended up hitting .245/.377/.415 with 6 HR and 43 RBI in 69 games for the Scrappers. He’s an offense-oriented catcher who won the Johnny Bench Award out of James Madison University last year. I asked Wallace about Lowery’s offense as well as his defense. “He won the Johnny Bench award, but that’s an award based mostly on offensive stats. Obviously we like his bat, but he’s got the tools to be a very good defensive catcher as well. His arm strength is very apparent, especially when you see him throw from his knees. That isn’t necessarily something we go out of our way to teach guys but he’s proven to us that he can do it consistently, accurately, then we’re not going to make him stop.”

Lowery is off to a decent start this year with high-A Carolina, hitting .257/.330/.356 in the pitching-dominated Carolina League. He has one HR, 7 2B, 11 BB and 34 K in 27 games for the Mudcats. More than anything, he’s provided solid defense and leadership from behind the plate, something Wallace expected out of the youngster. “In the short time he’s been with us, he’s show the intangibles and leadership abilities necessary to be back there. He does a good job calling a game, and is another guy we’re really excited about coming out of last year’s draft.”

Another talented young backstop in the system is local boy Alex Lavisky out of St. Edward’s High School in Lakewood. Lavisky was aggressively assigned to low-A Lake County in 2011 after being selected in the 8^th round of the 2010 draft for his professional debut. He struggled offensively, but had no problems with the glove. I asked Wallace about his defense, and he responded by telling me that, “he’s (Lavisky) solid defensively, he’s guy that with two strikes and the winning run on 3^rd, the pitcher’s not scared to throw a slider in the dirt because he knows Alex is going to block it. His work ethic is 2^nd to none; no one is going to outwork him out there.”  Lavisky doesn’t look like a kid less than 2 years removed from high school out there. He’s a physically mature kid who moves well behind the plate and has a cannon for an arm.

As good as Lavisky was defensively last year, he really struggled at the plate. He hit just .207/.251/.391 with 8 HR and 24 RBI in 49 games for the Captains, striking out 66 times against just 9 walks. Those are ugly numbers no matter how you slice them, and Lavisky was sent down to the New York-Penn League when short season play opened in June. He didn’t fare any better against that competition, hitting .201/.276/.328 with 5 HR in 68 games. The tools and raw talent are there, they just aren’t materializing in games just yet. Wallace isn’t worried about Lavisky’s offensive future though. “We don’t worry about his offensive production last year. He probably worries a lot more about it than we do. He’s got a bright future ahead of him.” Back in Lake County this season, Lavisky opened the season on a hot streak but has cooled off of late and is hitting a familiar .229/.283/.333 with a HR and 13 RBI in 24 games for the Captains. He has improved his K/BB ratio, but it’s still not pretty as he’s drawn 7 free passes and struck out 30 times. From a tools perspective, Lavisky has everything you’d want in a catcher. He just needs to work on pitch recognition and selection, improve his approach and start swinging at pitches that he can drive so his tremendous raw power can present itself more in game situations. 

A guy who’s flown under the radar after being selected in the 7^th round last year is Michigan native Eric Haase. Haase was committed to come south to Columbus and play his college ball at The Ohio State University, but never made it past I-90 and was diverted East to Cleveland. Haase made a brief debut in the instructional league last year after signing, and really impressed the coaching staff with how much good weight he put on last winter. “Just to see how he grew up physically over the offseason was impressive; the intangibles are all there, the skills are all there, it’s just a matter of refining them.” Haase is still just 19 years old, but was one of the more impressive players I saw in Goodyear. He’s the rare catcher that really does have all five tools, as he was his team’s leadoff hitter, best pitcher, starting catcher and occasional third baseman in high school. He’s got outstanding speed for a catcher, has touched the mid-90’s on the mound, and has downright shocking power to the opposite field. I saw him hit several balls out to right field in batting practice, and it’s easy power that comes from a fluid, line-drive swing. It’s still awfully early to make any kind of assessment on a kid who hasn’t even played in short-season ball yet, but the Indians may have really gotten themselves a steal in the 7^th round last year. There’s no doubt that the tools are there, they just need to be refined and show up in game situations as well. And did I mention that Haase wanted to get out of Michigan and play at The Ohio State University? I mean, the kid clearly has outstanding judgement.

The bottom line here is that from Akron all the way down to extended spring training in Goodyear, the Indians are loaded at the most important position on the diamond. The players are not without flaws and by no means are they all going to end up as productive major leaguers, but there’s a lot of talent back there. If you like defense, there’s Roberto Perez. If you like offense, Chun Chen’s still catching a little. If you want to dream on the future, Alex Lavisky and Eric Haase are probably more your taste and if you want a well-rounded guy who was productive in college, Jake Lowery is your guy. Any way you look at it though, the Indians have a bright future behind the dish, and that’s not even including potential all-star Carlos Santana, who is just 26-years old and under club control through 2017. For a guy who loves to watch quality catchers, it doesn’t get much better than that.  

Finding Someone Like Choo on A Lazy Sunday

In the midst of a Mr. Mom weekend (with The DiaBride off in the Windy City with her sister getting pedicures or massages or whatever happens on these types of trips) that will culminate in a trip down the corner of Carnegie and Ontario for me and my two boys and as the Indians continue to stick around atop the AL Central, something is starting to build.  Maybe it’s building because the Tigers are looking no better than the rest of the division (though this is when I remind you that they didn’t take off until the last quarter of the season last year) or maybe it’s because the Indians are playing some solid baseball.  Are the Indians the well-oiled machine that the Rangers look like, able to club their way to victory while enjoying solid pitching, playing in games that they just look like they’re going to eventually win?

Of course not as red flags are flying everywhere around this team, but they’ve pieced together some wins, and as their schedule remains tough this week (or at least tougher than it’s been), the Indians figure to keep pace in an AL Central that looks weaker and weaker with each passing week as the Indians (!) have highest runs per game average in their division…really, the Indians have averaged 4.625 runs per game to the Tigers’ average of 4.30 runs per game.

Despite the fact that there are obvious holes in the Indians’ lineup, the fact that the Tribe (going into Saturday night) has the 2^nd most runs per game of any team in the AL Central and AL West (the Rangers are better, as is EVERY team in the AL East to date) and with the arrival of Johnny Damon to lengthen the quality of their lineup, it’s worth examining what each of the offensive regulars have done to date and compare it to the rest of the AL to provide to proper context because (as you can tell by the title) the Indians are doing this offensively with some players that have pleasantly surprised, some that have just about lived up to what was expected of them, and one player who may hold the key to the Indians season.

And with that, let’s get it going on a Lazy One…

In an attempt to really quantify what the offensive regulars have done (even if it’s just for 24 or so games), it’s laughable to use any stat that uses defense as a component for 25 games (or even 162 games), but let’s take a look at where the Indians’ regulars rank in wOBA (explanation here…and the 2011 leaderboard here to point out that it’s a worthwhile metric) and OPS, two pretty accurate measures of a players’ offensive contributions.  Remember context is important here as comparing players on the Indians to players that play their positions reveal how they stack up against their peers and, more pointedly, their peers at their own positions.

Though I have no idea why there aren’t 14 players listed in each of these categories (info via Fangraphs), since I’m pretty sure you get it, here we go:

C – Carlos Santana

.368 wOBA – 3^rd among AL C

.840 OPS – 3^rd among AL C

1B – Casey Kotchman

.238 wOBA – 11^th among AL 1B (ahead of Justin Smoak and…wait for it…PUJOLS!)

.506 OPS – 12^th among AL 1B (behind Smoak, but still ahead of Pujols)

2B – Jason Kipnis

.396 wOBA – 1^st among AL 2B

.898 OPS – 2^nd among AL 2B (behind Kinsler)

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera

.367 wOBA – 2^nd among AL SS

.859 OPS – 2^nd among AL SS

3B – Jack Hannahan

.363 wOBA – 5^th among AL 3B

.844 OPS – 5^th among AL 3B

LF – Shelley Duncan

.327 wOBA – 8^th among AL LF

.744 OPS – 8^th among AL LF

CF – Mike Brantley

.261 wOBA – 11^th among AL CF

.626 OPS – 11^th among AL CF (last among qualified in both categories)

RF – Shin-Soo Choo

.310 wOBA – 8^th among AL RF

.665 OPS – 12^th among AL RF

DH – Travis Hafner

.380 wOBA – 5^th among AL DH

.878 OPS – 6^th among AL DH

Certainly, I’m not going to make any grand pronouncements after 24 games on any of these players, but a couple of things stand out here.  First, Hafner has looked great (though they should be resting him more) as the numbers being put up by the other DH’s in the AL are ludicrous enough that his rankings don’t quite do justice to what he’s contributed.  Of course, some of that is based on expectations for him coming into the season, but those numbers are nice to see out of Pronk…regardless of where we are in the season.

As for the other players under long-term contracts, Santana and Asdrubal are…um, awesome.  But that’s old news…

As for the other player that ranks among the Top 3 at his position, did anyone know that Kipnis was tops among AL 2B in wOBA?

Lest you forget, that’s a group that includes Ian Kinsler and Dustin PEDroia as those comparisons that Acta made in Spring Training of Kipnis to Utley, Pedroia, and Joe Morgan…OK, he never said Joe Morgan, but you get the idea that it may not be all that far-fetched.  Interestingly, in his 1^st 60 MLB games, he has an .864 OPS (141 OPS+) and 12 2B and 11 HR…again, that’s in 60 games.  Extrapolating any of these stats out is always dangerous stuff, but B-Ref puts his 162-game average at 32 2B, 11 3B, and 30 HR if he would continue at this clip.  

That’s special for a 25-year-old middle infielder.

For that quartet (Cabrera, Santana, Hafner, and Kipnis) there was hope that they could carry this offense and they’ve done just that.  And although one name is missing in the parentheses from the previous sentence, in terms of players that we had high hopes for, let’s just dispense with the Kotchman disappointment.  There’s no question that he’s been otherworldly bad at the plate, but not atrocious enough for “He Who Shall Not be Named” to re-enter the lexicon…at least not to me, not yet.  Also, if we’re talking about expectations, unless you were buying that Kotchman-Lasik garbage (and you shouldn’t have been), we kind of knew that Kotchman couldn’t hit.  It’s likely that we didn’t think he’d be this bad at the plate, but expectations were never really high for him.

Keeping with expectations, Brantley hasn’t done anything to change the low expectations that he now carries around like an anchor and Duncan did about what you would have thought he’d do.  Hopefully they can maximize Duncan’s effectiveness now that Damon has arrived as he, like Hannahan (who has wildly exceeded expectations, as we continue to see how long this can last) has firmly established himself as a solid contributor on a winning team.

If you’ve noticed who has avoided being placed under the microscope’s glass (and, again, the title should let you know where this is going), the real outlier here, in terms of expectations and performance to date is Shin-Soo Choo.  After essentially carrying this team’s offensive burden on his own for 2+ years, The BLC now finds himself in an extended rut.  Certainly, his performance on Friday night offered a reminder of what he’s been and provides hope for what he perhaps could be once again, but those performances have been in short supply since the start of the 2011 season.  Obviously, Choo’s…um, “difficult” 2011 season has been well-documented, but without getting into the contract distraction, the DUI and the fallout from that (locally or, more pointedly, in his native South Korea) or the injuries, it’s interesting to look at where Choo has been in the past and in the more recent past, in an attempt to see if Choo – as we once knew him – could be coming back…because it would sure provide a spark to this 2012 team.

While this has seemingly been forgotten as Choo has struggled for more than a year, Choo’s cumulative wOBA (since we’ve already used that) from 2008 to 2010 was .390.  While that may not be all that impressive because it lacks context, how’s this for context – that was the 14^th highest wOBA in that 3-year stretch, with Choo coming in just behind Josh Hamilton.  He finished just ahead of (in order) Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, and…hell, here’s the list.  During that time, Choo’s offensive contributions for the Indians so vastly outpaced anybody else on those teams (that weren’t all that good) that he was taken for granted – partly because of the fact that he didn’t have much around him, but more accurately because of his consistency.

Just to illustrate that “consistency”, here’s what Choo did in 2009 and 2010:

Choo – 2009 (156 games)

.300 BA / .394 OBP / .489 SLG / .883 OPS with 38 2B & 20 HR in 583 PA

Choo – 2010 (144 games)

.300 BA / .401 OBP / .484 SLG / .885 OPS with 31 2B & 22 HR in 550 PA

Over more than 1,100 plate appearances, that consistency (and consistent excellence) is absurd.  Now, since the beginning of the 2011 season to now, Choo’s numbers are decidedly less consistent and certainly less than excellent:

Choo – 2011 to now (103 games)

.250 BA / .343 OBP / .378 SLG / .721 OPS with 16 2B and 9 HR in 443 PA

Maybe we’re seeing a normalization of BABIP for Choo (as his BABIP was always – though consistently – high) as his BABIP has dropped significantly in the last two years (his BABIP is .280 this year after being in the .360 to .380 range from 2008 to 2010) or maybe his injuries have prevented him from getting into the groove that he occupied for the better part of 2+ years. Perhaps the injuries that have festered have robbed him of his effectiveness or aggressiveness to the point of self-doubt, although his K rates, BB rates and Line Drive rates have all stayed relatively similar to where they were when he was among the AL’s elite at the plate.

Regardless “what’s” happened to Choo, something has certainly occurred as his production has fallen off of a cliff.  And as much hand-wringing is done with Ubaldo (and justifiably so…and this piece from Zach Meisel is a terrific look and numbers while Kyle Boddy takes an actual look at his mechanics, with some astounding revelations), the offensive player on this team – other than Hafner – that has a track record of elite production in the lineup is Choo (who makes more than Ubaldo this year), production that hasn’t been seen since the beginning of 2011.

Don’t think that the Indians don’t know that Choo represents what could be the tipping point for their offense, if you’ll remember Hannahan’s comment after the KC melee, in which he said, “You hit our studs, we hit your studs” (as Gomez plunked Moustakas).  While Choo hasn’t been a “stud” for longer than a year, his performance in MLB has earned him that reputation in the Indians’ clubhouse and one has to think that Hannahan standing up for Choo could have been more about the player he was protecting (Choo) in an effort to show Choo how much his teammates think of him (and perhaps need him back) more than words can convey.

Watching the current offense rely on the production of Santana, Cabrera, Kipnis, and Hafner (with occasional offense from Hannahan or some other source) one can’t help but wonder what a Choo v2008-v2010 could do to this lineup.  Inserting the Choo that we saw (and probably underappreciated) for the better part of 2+ years would dramatically alter this offense and team.  Seeing his performance on Friday night was a startling reminder of that as the Indians (behind Choo) stood toe-to-toe with the team that could be the best team in baseball right now.

Less than a year ago, The BLC attempted to philosophize his struggles to Anthony Castrovince, famously saying, “You know a frog goes down, because he wants to go forward more?  I try to think like that” meaning that (as AC put it last June) “Choo hopes what’s transpired the last three months will prove to be his low point before a sudden surge that eclipses anything he’s done previously at the Major League level”.

If last June represented Choo in a “crouch”, he’s only slipped deeper into said crouch.  If that “sudden surge” out brings him forward and anything close to his past level of production, the entire Indians’ offense could “leap” into the driver’s seat in the AL Central and take the whole city on a summer ride that won’t soon be forgotten.

Tomahawks Coming, Going, Hitting, & Missing

Though most of the North Coast is embroiled in a backup QB debate (a favorite past time in Cleveland, although new to May), the Indians’ season rolls on into a decidedly more difficult part of the schedule.  After leaving Chicago, the Indians welcome the big, bad Rangers (who are a cresting juggernaut right now) to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, before welcoming these same Pale Hose to Cleveland in what could be a pivotal week or so as the Indians try to keep pace in the Central against what seem to be more staunch opponents.

Whether they are able to find their offense or gain some consistency in the rotation remains to be seen but as the Indians attempt to carry their April success into May, while adapting, augmenting, and (hopefully) improving on the fly, let’s get some Tomahawks in the air.

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As the hand-wringing and wailing (justifiably) reaches a fever pitch with Ubaldo, after Tuesday night’s disaster on the South Side, we have unquestionably reached a tipping point with the player that the Indians acquired last year to front their rotation.  Having seen Ubaldo since he’s arrived to the North Coast (and particularly this year), we know what the problems are – that he’s throwing too many pitches, that he’s walking too many hitters, that he’s not missing many (any?) bats, but do you realize how poorly he’s pitching in the context of MLB pitchers in some pretty important categories?

First, he’s averaging 18.6 pitches per inning, 3rd highest among qualified pitchers in the AL, and that’s fine if you’re a GB pitcher like Derek Lowe or are a strikeout pitcher like David Price as you’re either setting the hitter up to make weak contact or to make no contact at all…but Jimenez is neither.  His GB rate this year is 38.2% (he was close to or above 50% in his last 2+ years in Colorado) and his K/9 this year (4.4) is almost HALF of what it was going into the 2011 season.

Most concerning about that 2^nd number (his K/9) is that he’s just not missing bats, something that was once his trademark.  Jimenez is getting hitters to swing and miss at only 4.9% of his pitches, which is the 7th lowest amount among the 130 pitchers with 20 or more IP this year.  For a player that had a swinging strike rate near or above 9% for most of his career, it means that Ubaldo has devolved from being among the elite in swinging strike rates to the bottom of the league in the same category…and that is not insignificant.

As a result, as Ubaldo seems to know that he’s not going to miss many bats and has no faith in his fastball, we get the nibbling that we’ve seen (which accompanies the high pitch counts – that I could care less about with him as we’re not “protecting” him from anything) and the high number of free passes handed out.  How high of a number?

He has walked FIFTEEN percent of the batters he’s faced this year, highest among MLB starters and, just to provide some context here, the highest BB% last year was Gio Gonzalez’s 10.5%, which was preceded by Jonathan Sanchez’s 11.9% as the high percentage in 2010.  Again, Ubaldo has walked 15% of the hitters he’s faced to date.

While all of this may be just going deeper into what we already know (while depressing us to no end), there’s no question that the Ubaldo we’re seeing is a different pitcher than the one that plied his trade in Denver.  Whether the change is physical (his velocity is down and his command has deserted him) or mental (as this whole tiff with seemingly ALL of his old Rockies’ teammates is suddenly relevant), the fact is that this v.2012 isn’t even who Ubaldo was last year, as he seems to have regressed from his uneven 2011 season.

Without even getting tied up in what was given up for Ubaldo (Pomz recently missed a start with “forearm tightness”…not a good thing for a young arm, while Al White is in AAA after being beat out by Jaime Moyer for a spot in the Rox’ rotation), the tipping point is upon us as something has to give here in terms of what the Indians do with Jimenez.

Is there something physically wrong with him?

If not, do they “find” an injury to send him off to clear his head and re-work his mechanics?

Is he even open to that idea?

As for whether he’s open to it, Jordan Bastian passes along some interesting info in his latest blog, reporting that:

Manager Manny Acta and Jimenez both noted that the pitcher is working on some mechanical adjustments that will take a few starts. Jimenez said it involves his front shoulder, and the hope is that it will help generate more power. He said pitchign coach Scott Radinsky noticed a flaw between the pitcher’s 2010 form and what he’s been doing over the past two years. Fingers crossed.

“Fingers crossed” indeed…

Perhaps Radinsky found that flaw, as he (or someone else) made adjustments to Lowe’s mechanics in 2011 and made the changes, with the results looking GREAT to date, and maybe Ubaldo puts the brakes on this rapid descent down the mountain.  At this point, that feels hard to imagine, as getting Ubaldo back to even mediocre feels like a long climb.  After Ubaldo failed to live up to (much less exceed) expectations last year as his performance played a role in the Indians’ slide in the standings (though he was certainly not solely culpable), it is now on him and the organization to fix what has broken him in the last few years.

That is, if he is fixable…

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The other big news in the Windy City is the arrival of Johnny Damon to man LF and to sit (for now) at the top of the lineup.  Damon’s arrival is the culmination of a long and winding road for the Indians to find somebody (anybody) to man LF after Grady Sizemore went down with his back injury.  Though it’s not worth re-hashing the whole timeline, the Indians tried to find some value in the scrap heap of OF and, as those players revealed why they were on the scrap heap, nearly acquired Bobby Abreu (since cut) from the Angels.  That (as well as some serious misses in trades and drafts) brings us to Damon’s debut as it sounds as if Damon will play nearly every day, with most of that time coming in LF.

As a quick aside here, prompted by the link above that plots out how integral the failure of Matt LaPorta has been to get us to this point, there will now be a moratorium in this space on Matt LaPorta/Matt MaTola (or any other reference to the player that wore #7 last year for the Indians) as the Indians have now spent more than $9M (Sizemore, Kotchman, and now Damon) to NOT have LaPorta even sniff Cleveland.  While I’m forced to endlessly read about his feats in Columbus (and this is when I point out that he’s struck out 20 times in 91 plate appearances against AAA pitching as a 27-year-old), I refuse to believe that he is a viable option at 1B or LF in 2012 or at any point going further in the eyes of the organization…and I have no issue with that.  If you figure that the two players who were NRI’s prior to the 2011 season started on the 2012 Tribe in what would have been the two options for Laporta to fill (1B and LF) and talk was given to Bobby Abreu and Ryan Spilborghs and a whole other cast of characters this Spring while LaPorta remained largely invisible in the conversation. 

“Invisible” is how he will remain in this space – 2012 performance in AAA considered…

Off the soapbox and back to Damon’s debut, having Damon on the roster essentially means that the Opening Day LF – Shelley Duncan – will revert back to his role as a LF/1B/DH who hits from the right side, a role that has always suited him best.  That’s not to say that Duncan isn’t a valuable piece for a team like the Indians, just that Duncan isn’t really a suitable everyday option, something that the Indians obviously believed from the time that Sizemore went down with his injury.

Many have asserted that Duncan’s recent stretch indicate that he is not suited as an everyday player (while I think his entire body of work is a better indicator), though it is interesting to note a particular date in Duncan’s backslide:

Duncan’s 1^st 37 PA this year through April 17^th

.333 BA / .514 OBP / .593 SLG / 1.106 OPS with 6 K, 10 BB, 3 XBH

Duncan’s last 43 PA this year after April 17^th

.189 BA / .256 OBP / .297 SLG / .553 OPS with 16 K, 4 BB, 1 XBH

That second batch of numbers includes Duncan’s HR on Tuesday and it’s an interesting comparison to see to illustrate that just as it’s dangerous to draw conclusions on Duncan’s start (and people were hopping on the Shelley Wagon early on), it’s just as foolhardy to draw them on what’s happened to him since April 17^th.

In case you were wondering about the significance of that date, Damon’s signing became official on…wait for it…April 17^th.  Regardless of the effect that Damon’s signing had on Duncan’s performance, to know what Shelley Duncan is going to do this year as he’s not as good as that one set of numbers would indicate, nor is he as bad as the second set intimates.  

While we see how Acta begins to shuffle Damon and Duncan around (and I’d put Damon in LF every day and put Duncan at 1B vs. LHP to spell Kotchman), what may be even more interesting to see evolve is how Damon, Duncan, and Brantley perform in the next month or so.  What will make that interesting is that most assume that when Sizemore returns, Brantley will slot back to LF and Damon will use his “gentleman’s agreement” to find his way out of Cleveland.  But what if Damon outperforms Brantley over the next four to six weeks and Sizemore is ready to return in mid-June or so?

Is it THAT hard to envision the Indians holding on to Damon and slotting Brantley as a glorified 4^th OF/continued insurance against another Sizemore injury?

Certainly, a lot can happen between now and then, and Brantley has looked better but Brantley has the lowest wOBA among regular CF in the AL, with only Francoeur, Viciedo, and Boesch lower than him among all OF in the AL.  While he has continued to be hailed a top-of-the-order hitter and a speed merchant, his career OBP is now .315 in 1,030 PA and he has 29 career SB in 233 career games. 

For context on that SB total, Jason Kipnis has 10 SB in his first 57 MLB games.

While I’m not saying that Damon will be appreciably better than what we’ve seen from Brantley (or Duncan), it’s not outrageous to envision Sizemore returning and Brantley settling into the 4^th OF role (around Damon, Sizemore, and Choo) with Duncan as the RH 1B/DH that suits him.  Just as the Damon signing lengthens the roster by putting Duncan in the role previously occupied by Jose Lopez, you’d be talking about jettisoning Cunningham and keeping Damon around as the LF with Brantley as the 4^th OF/protection for Sizemore.

Given Sizemore’s (well-documented) injury history as well as Brantley’s injury history and struggles to date in MLB, I’m not so sure that Damon is the “rental” that some (OK...me) assumed him to be.  But there’s plenty of time for all of that to bear out as Johnny Damon is officially a Cleveland Indian as the Tribe attempts to improve their offense and overall roster, even if the improvement is incremental as any improvement – even “incremental” – is something this offense needs right now.

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With Vinnie Pestano having struck out a hitter in EVERY one of his appearances (which is wild if you think about it) and now that it looks like Nick Hagadone has arrived for good, the Indians’ bullpen is suddenly boasting some legitimate strikeout arms.  While the Tribe may not be K-heavy up and down the bullpen ladder, realize that Pestano has struck out 14 of the 41 hitters he’s faced (34% of the batters) and Hagadone has already struck out 5 of the 17 hitters he’s faced (29%) in his brief time as an Indian.  Going back to the idea that Ubaldo isn’t missing many (any) bats, realize that Hagadone (13.5%) and Pestano (12%) are the team’s leader in swinging strike rates.  Certainly, the small sample size siren blares away, but that’s all you really have with relievers and as the Indians’ bullpen continues to be a strength, see Tribe relievers miss bats (small sample or not) is exciting.

Interestingly, the propensity to miss bats among relievers is not limited to the relievers in Cleveland though as Bryce Stowell was put squarely under the microscope when Buster Olney tweeted about Stowell’s numbers to date being “very, very interesting”.  The reason they’re so interesting is that Stowell has struck out 15 and walked none in his first 7 innings pitched, but just to continue the K/Batter Faced idea above, realize that Stowell has faced 23 batters in 7 innings, or he’s recorded 21 outs in 23 batters and FIFTEEN of his 21 outs have been via the K and he’s faced only 2 above the minimum in his first 7 IP of work in Akron.

While you may want to chalk this up to a pitcher in a level that is beneath him, talent-wise, realize that these K totals are nothing new as he struck out 37% of the batters he faced in 2010, when he spent time in Kinston, Akron, and Columbus and matched that Whiff Percentage (37%) in his 2011 campaign.  Now, he’s back to his whiffing ways, striking out SIXTY-FIVE percent of the hitters he’s faced so far this year.

Yes, Stowell is 25 and dominating AA hitters and the 22^nd Round Pick in 2008 probably could use some time in AAA to refine his repertoire, but his performance conjures memories of another late-round pick reliever that started his age-25 season in AA and thrived, using it to catapult him into the Indians’ bullpen and eventually into the back-end of said bullpen.  Of course, the precedent (and a hopeful one at that) is Vinnie F. Pestano, who started his 2010 season (age 25) in AA, where he struck out 33% of the batters he faced in AA in 2010, then proceeded to whiff 31% of the batters he faced in AAA later that same year.

In 2011, he whiffed 34% of the hitters he faced in MLB as he continued to miss bats, something that has continued this year in the back-end of the Tribe bullpen.  The lesson with Pestano – in hindsight – is that when these guys miss that many bats, you start to take notice.  Unless you’re talking about a mid-to-late-20s arm in low-level Minors, if a player is able to strike out more than 1/3 of the batters he faces, there seems to be a correlation that he would continue to miss bats as he climbs the Minor League ladder, assuming his BB rates stay in control.

Fortunately for the Indians, it doesn’t end with Stowell as Bryan Price (though older and in AA also) would be another arm to watch as he’s whiffed 19 of the 48 hitters (39%) he’s faced in Akron this year, a serious jump from his previous year at the same level.  While I’m not going to present a possibility for the jump in strikeouts for Price (the 3^rd pitcher the Indians netted from Boston for Victor), it will be interesting to see if he can continue the momentum early in his 2012 campaign into positioning himself for a chance at a spot in the Tribe’s rotation going forward.

Hard as it may be to believe, the K/Batter Faced numbers for Price (while impressive) actually pale in comparison to what Cody Allen has done at three (Kinston, Akron, and Columbus…already) levels this year.  Allen has struck out a staggering 20 of the 45 batters he’s faced (44%) and has now moved up to Columbus, leapfrogging both Stowell and Price in the process.  While Allen’s success may be fleeting, realize that he’s walked 14 of the 215 batters he’s faced since joining the Indians’ organization and has struck out 95 of those hitters, meaning he has struck out nearly 7 times the batters he has walked.

How the continued promotions of that trio plays out remains to be seen, but there is one other aspect here that is worth noting, and that has to do with usage.  In case you forgot, I went off on a bit of a manifesto a couple of weeks ago as to whether a better “mouse trap” could be devised for building bullpens, given the idea that the modern bullpen has proven to be no more effective than the bullpen configurations of the past.  While I never went in-depth as to how this would be implemented in MLB, one thought that has often existed was to have relievers throw more than just one inning, to limit the amount of relievers needed per game.

Interestingly, Bryan Price has thrown 2 or more innings in each of his 5 outings this year while Bryce Stowell’s last two outings were for 3 innings (on 4-16), then 2 innings (on 4-20), and Cody Allen went 2 innings in his first (and only) appearance as a Clipper.  To provide some further intrigue, in Hagadone’s last 4 outings in Columbus, 3 of them were for multiple innings.  Seeing this, are the Indians conditioning these guys (in the Minors) to be able to pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen?

Maybe these multiple inning outings are nothing more than these arms hitting pitch counts, but if you’re looking at the top 4 reliever prospects that are closest to Cleveland, it’s probably Hagadone, Allen, Stowell, and Price (and probably in that order…although I’d put CC Lee in there as well) and all of them have thrown multiple innings in their last few appearances in Columbus and Akron

While I won’t call that the seeds of a “bullpen revolution”, it is interesting to note that these guys are throwing multiple innings and are missing A LOT of bats in Columbus and Akron.  Whether they can continue that success – the way that Vinnie Pestano did and Nick Hagadone seems to have – remains to be seen, but the Indians’ bullpen could continue to be a strength of this team as the Indians have lined up some power arms that rack up strikeouts up and down the system.

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Finally, you may or may not have noticed this, but while the Rangers run away with the AL West (yes, at the beginning of May) and as EVERY team in the AL East has a positive run differential, the AL Central boasts what look like the worst two teams in the AL (KC and Minnesota) in the early going.  Interestingly, while the Indians got fat on their early schedule, the Tigers are 2-7 in their last 9 games, including going 1-4 against the Mariners and Royals.

This AL Central race, flawed as it may continue to be, could continue to hold our interest…even longer than the annual Browns’ QB derby.

A Lazy Sunday of Appreciation and Anticipation

While most of the North Coast takes their magnifying glass to the NFL Draft (said by many to be the Browns’ Annual Super Bowl…and one that they’ve not exactly thrived in since their return) and as another portion of Clevelanders prepare for the NBA Lottery on May 30^th (as the Cavaliers finish a two-year stretch in which they posted the fewest wins since the 1982 to 1984 teams…not that I don’t “approve” of them getting the third most ping-pong balls), you may or may not have noticed, but the Indians are preparing to enter May in 1^st Place in their division. 

Are they tied for 1^st Place?

Yes…and it can certainly be argued that the Indians simply took advantage of a favorable schedule in the early going (and I’ll actually make that argument if you want to hear it) and that this is still ultimately a flawed team (again, no dissension on that point as they have a negative run differential), but in a town where “hope” is the operative word for sports franchises in recent years, the Indians are once again off to a hot start and – while that hasn’t been reflected at the turnstiles – they finish their April comparing favorably to the other teams in their division and…well, maybe it’s time to appreciate that.

Since so much of the conversation in the past week revolves around what young players “could be” or how they project in the NFL or NBA or how “promise” is there to build upon, maybe it’s time to take a look at a couple of players who have graduated from the “could” side of the ledger into the “are” side and whose “promise” has been realized in short order.  While the Browns and the Cavs certainly have talented young players (who may or may not live up to the projections being heaped on them), the Indians have some very exciting players that have established themselves as elite players and have positioned themselves to perhaps occupy the upper echelon among MLB players going forward and appreciating them for what they are while anticipating what’s to come is something that’s not done often enough in a world in which the negatives are examined to death (guilty here) while the positives are taken for granted to some degree.

So while the sports-talk radio crowd (when they’re not talking about how a 4^th Rounder fits into a “scheme) and the Twitterverse harps away at the deficiencies of Kotchman, Brantley, Wheeler, and others, what often gets lost is that we’re watching a couple of players cement their position as the pillars that the Indians figure to be built on…and not just for 2012, but for years after this. 

Of course, I speak of Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana as we let loose on a Lazy One…

With the wonderful juxtaposition of the struggling Angels being in town as the back-drop, given their spending spree this off-season, Cabrera and Santana were the two players that inked extensions this off-season for the Tribe and, while their deals may have only “bought” out one year of FA for each of those players, Cabrera is now potentially in the fold through 2014 (with $21.05M guaranteed) and Santana under club control potentially through 2017 (with $21M guaranteed), it’s worth noting that the Angels will pay at least one player $20M or more every year until 2021, which is the year that my oldest son, now 5 years old, will be entering High School.

Seriously…

Though I don’t need a refresher course of service time, arbitration, FA, or even TV contracts as I know that the Indians (unlike the Angels) are never going to pay for past production and will pay for perceived future production, to see Cabrera and Santana under the Indians’ control for the next three seasons together (and through 2017 in Santana’s case) can’t help but generate some enthusiasm.  And that enthusiasm and optimism is building as 2012 begins since the Indians’statistical leaderboard starts to morph back into some semblance of normalcy, as it is worth noting that the Indians’ C and SS have continued to establish themselves as two players for whom their 2011 success seems to have carried over.

Now, I don’t know if you noticed in that link above, but Cabrera and Santana are the 3^rd and 4^th youngest regulars for the Indians (Brantley and Kipnis are younger) and while that may depress you to see that they have three players over 30 (with another on the way in Damon) that are getting regular time, given that they were supposed to have loaded up the farm system to get similarly-aged and similarly-controlled players, Cabrera and Santana are both 26 years old and are just hitting their years of peak production.  Given what they’ve done in the last couple of years (and so far this year) that’s exciting enough to forget that Mike Brantley has a career .315 OBP in 1,018 PA and 29 career SB in 230 games (though he’s admittedly looked better at the plate in the last 2 days than I think he ever has) or that Kotchman, Duncan, and Hannahan are taking significant AB this season.  Because complaining about the black holes on the roster is missing the bright, shining stars and complaining about the less significant portions of the team is taking for granted the development and contributions of the more important players on this team…for this year and beyond.

That’s not to say that complaining about a teams’ inability to develop a LF or the persistent black hole at 1B aren’t justifiable endeavors, but what happens while we moan and project about what the team is going to do at 3B (again, guilty in this space) or scan the rosters of other teams to find a LF to target for trade, we miss out on the development and establishment of the players who HAVE fulfilled potential or HAVE surprised us (in the pleasant way) with the player that they’ve become.  As we (inexplicably) are reminded seemingly every day how Matt MaTola is doing in AAA or how Trevor Crowe is “lining himself up for a chance” and can’t help but be depressed by this (and the fact that the Indians are playing Shelley Duncan and Casey Kotchman on a regular basis and just signed Johnny Damon should tell you everything you need to know about how likely a LaPorta or Crowe sighting is in Cleveland this year), we somehow take the burgeoning stars in the middle of the Indians’ lineup – the players that have fulfilled their potential – that constitute the “up-the-middle” talent for granted.

Often, I think about how Victor Martinez was a topic of discussion or debate as an Indian only when he was hurt or how he was fondly appreciated mainly on that day that he sat in front of his locker crying as so much time and words were put into finding a solution for 3B or LF or 1B (yes, even back then) in those years that we failed to truly appreciate Victor for the player that he became and for the Indian that he was.  Certainly, he was the favorite player for many and he was far from ignored, but too often we took his steadiness and his excellence for granted, only broaching it as a topic when he was injured or when he was…well, gone.

While that “gone” doesn’t really apply for Cabrera and Santana (with their extensions in hand), to see the way that the duo has started 2012 is to realize that their 2011 seasons may not have been aberrations or red herrings.  Lest you forget, Santana posted the 3^rd highest wOBA among C in MLB last year and Asdrubal was 5^th among MLB SS in wOBA.  This year (with that small sample size siren blaring), Santana ranks 7^th in wOBA among C in MLB and Asdrubal ranks 4^th in MLB among SS, perhaps showing that the duo is ready to pace this offense (or at least lead it) throughout the 2012 season and beyond.

With a hot start in 2012, Asdrubal continues to establish himself as an elite offensive SS, despite questions as to whether 2011 was the aberration and as whispers about his off-season conditioning grew audible.  Interestingly, he seems to have filled a leadership void in the clubhouse that has existed since El Capitan headed to Beantown, looking more and more like the heart and soul of this Indians’ team.  While his defense remains a point of contention between stats and eyes, to realize that the Indians acquired him for ½ of a season of Eduardo Perez reminds us that things have worked out in some areas for the Indians, even if the team’s main beat writer spend his Sundays answering questions about where Scott Lewis has gone…apparently because nobody asked him about the whereabouts of Anthony Reyes or Jeremy Sowers.

The Venezuelan SS (whose at-bat music is “Super Estrella”, which I believes translates to “Super Astro” or “Super Star”…and thanks to AC for dropping all of the actual walk-in music for the Tribe on us) has emerged as a perennial All-Star – not that the All-Star selection process is the most scientific way to quantify worth – and while Francisco Lindor continues to bepraised in Lake County, it’s again important to remember not what a certain player “could” be (though I’m irrationally excited about Lindor) but to appreciate a player for what he has become…and Cabrera has become a star.  Even when Asdrubal arrived in that magical 2007 season, there was hope (that at times seemed unfounded) that he would develop into the player that he is today.  But that hope has materialized into reality and, while it proves that stars can emerge from relative obscurity (and the Seattle farm system), that is something that is not appreciated enough.

As for emerging from “relative obscurity”, Santana didn’t follow that path as he was a highly-touted prospect from the time he arrived from LA for Lacey Cake and (while other “top prospects” acquired by the Indians in those dark days of 2008 and 2009 have fallen by the wayside) Santana kept climbing the Minor League ladder and every Annual Prospect ranking.  Upon arrival to the parent club, he immediately put his offensive imprint on the team and, despite an…um, harrowing night in Boston in his rookie year, his performance at the plate is something that I don’t think is truly grasped, in terms of context.

By that I mean that among players with more than 900 PA since the beginning of 2010, Santana’s OPS of 129+ puts him 27th inMLB, just ahead of Ryan Zimmerman and Andre Ethier and if you really want to get some perspective about how impressive Santana’s performance in MLB has been, look at the players ranked for their numbers from 2010 to now, onlyincluding players that are in their 1st to 5th seasons intheir career.  That is, among players who are still young and are only just starting their careers (relatively speaking), Santana’s OPS+ ranks behind only Votto, Hamilton, Braun, Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez.

That’s it…

Those are the only players under the age of 30, early in their careers that have performed better than Santana at the plate since 2010, which is when The Axe Man arrived to MLB.  Santana is that “big bopper” that some thought (or “hoped”) he would become, the middle-of-the-order presence that gets taken for granted far too often and is noticed more for the “protection” in the lineup that he does not have more than for his excellence at the plate.  As for “behind” said plate, Santana’s defense has unquestionably improved this season and, while it remains to be seen where The Axe Man ends up on defense, his game is becoming more complete as he continues his assault on MLB pitching.

Over at LGT, Jay Levin penned a great piece dissecting the (absurd) Fangraphsian suggestion that the Indians did not get much of a discount in Santana’s extension.  After a logical foray into the “how does Johnny Damon fit” question, Jay’s piece that asserted that the Indians received what could be potentially quite a discount, comparing the money received by Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder in arbitration to what the Indians will be paying Santana.  If those names look ambitious in terms of comparison, Levin opines thusly:

These are not logical comps for Santana, clearly. And yet, one scenario that the Indians do have to consider in their planning is the one where Santana becomes a straight-up superstar. All he has to do is hit 35 bombs — and he doesn’t even have to do it this year. He can do it in 2012, or in 2013, or in 2014. Santana’s age in those three seasons: 26, 27 and 28.

That – in a nutshell – reminds us what Santana already is and what he can (quite easily) become if he follows on his current path. “What he is” and “what he can become” are unquestionably exciting notions and, as there is much hand-wringing over Kotchman’s start or concerns over Ubaldo’s inconsistency (both legitimate gripes), let’s not take Santana’s ascension to the upper echelon of MLB hitters for granted.  Sure, the local beat writers are going to continue to harp away at The Axe Man’s batting average because…well, that’s what they do instead of attempting to contextualize his impact, but to watch Santana develop has already been a joy.  The feeling that he’s just scratching the surface is impossible to ignore and seeing him in the middle of the Indians’ lineup (potentially) through 2017 should cause some warmth on a cold Sunday morning on the North Coast.

How the Indians’ offense ultimately performs throughout the season remains (seriously) in question as it becomes more and more apparent that this offense is going to have to be paced by Santana and Cabrera with the hope that Choo can get healthy (and effective) and Hafner can STAY healthy (and effective) forming the heart of the order.  If Kipnis continues to develop as an offensive presence and Brantley’s weekend foretells of future success (and this is me not holding my breath), the top-to-middle of the Indians’ offense could excite and amaze this year. 

While much e-ink will be spilled on the other spots in the lineup and concerns in the rotation and bullpen, it’s important to not lose sight of the way that Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana have emerged as legitimate stars in the last two years or so.  Maybe the onus is on the Indians for not surrounding them with more talent at the corners of the diamond and in the corners of the outfield, but complaining about those issues (which are justified) sometimes takes away from the enjoyment of watching a young player mature and develop into an impactful star in MLB.

With both Asdrubal and The Axe Man, that enjoyment is unmistakable and – regardless of what happens around that duo in the lineup or in the field – to appreciate them for what they are and to anticipate what they can be is the reason that most of us became baseball fans.  Rather than irrationally focusing on the (continued) deficiencies of the team all season long, placing that focus on seeing what the young players that are on hand have evolved into allows one to envision an enjoyable summer.

Whether the summer is enjoyable or not, the Indians have pillars for their team up the middle of the diamond and – thanks to their newly inked extensions – those pillars can be appreciated now and into the future…