Enjoying the Ride on a Lazy Sunday

The roller-coaster ride that has been the 2013 Indians season continued this week, as the Indians swept a 3-game series on the road from the The Angels Angels of Anahiem after dropping two of three in Oakland. After splitting the first two games of a 3-game set with Minnesota, the Indians currently stand at 70-59 on the season, 6 games back in the division and 2.5 games out of the 2^nd Wild Card spot and a playoff berth. A roller coaster seems like a pretty good analogy for this years’ installment of the Cleveland Indians. They’ve had no fewer than seven separate streaks of 5+ wins or losses in a row throughout the season thus far, resulting in the fanbase feeling alternately very positive or very negative about the clubs playoff chances. Individual players like Jason Kipnis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Carlos Carrasco and others have run alternately hot and cold, sometimes from game to game. And while a roller coaster can sometimes make you nauseous from all the ups and downs, we will often pay good money to ride them, because despite the occasional stomach flip they can be an awful lot of fun. As we head down the last hill and towards the final turn of our little ride this season, the Indians are getting ready to play meaningful baseball in October for the first time since 2007. With so many other teams fighting for one of two Wild Card berths, scoreboard watching can be a confusing and time-consuming proposition. So I’m just going to sit back, cheer for the Indians and enjoy the ride. They’ve already surpassed their win total from 2012, and they have a great shot at finishing the season with 90+ wins.

There’s no real way to measure the overall affect a manager has on a baseball team. It’s pretty clear that managers look a heck of a lot better when they are managing better players. But everyone in and around the club this season agrees that Terry Francona is going a pretty good job with the Indians this year. Scott Miller of CBS Sports wrote an article on the impact Tito is having on the club, talking to everyone from Francona himself to Sandy Alomar Jr. and several of the players. Way back in March when I talked to Indians president Mark Shapiro, he talked about finding “levers” that affect more than one piece of the ballclub. There’s little doubt that Francona has been a lever that has positively impacted the team this year, even though there’s no way to assign a specific win total to the hiring of Francona over Manny Acta. I don’t think Acta was a terrible manager, and Francona has clearly had better players than Acta did at his disposal, but I do believe that Francona has done a very nice job with the team this season.

Danny Salazar has continued to impress as a member of the major league rotation, flashing two above-average to plus pitches with a level of consistency that few (present company included) saw coming in his first taste of big-league action. In his four MLB starts, Salazar has posted a 3.52 ERA with 29 K and 7 BB in 23 innings of work. His fastball is averaging in excess of 95 MPH, and is touching triple digits. His changeup is so good that he’s got people who should know better mis-identifying it as a splitter. When asked about Salazar in his most recent chat for ESPN.com, prospect guru Keith Law replied that he “looks like ace stuff so far. The splitter is filthy and he can hold 96-97 as a starter. Seems fair to call him at least a future 2 if he holds up.” If anything, Salazar has been unlucky; an unsustainable 1 in 4 flyballs allowed by Salazar have left the yard. Five of the fifteen hits he’s given up have left the yard, and four of those have been off his fastball. It’s a pitch that Salazar could blow past minor league hitters without worrying as much about location, but major league hitters (and Miggy Cabrera in particular) can handle velocity if it isn’t properly located. Once the 23-year old Salazar starts doing a better job spotting his mid-90’s heat, the HR rate will normalize and the ERA should drop. I think Salazar is the Indians #2 starter next year behind Masterson, and could be the high-impact arm at the front of the rotation that the Indians have been so desperately trying to develop. It will be interesting to see how the Indians manage his innings the rest of the season, as he’s 116 innings in 2013 after recording just 87 2/3 in 2012. He’s was pushed back a day prior to his most recent start, which helps but doesn’t really answer how he’ll be handled for the rest of the season. Chris Antonetti has come out to say that there’s no strict innings limit on Salazar, and the club is considering pitch counts and not just a hard innings ceiling the way the Nationals famously handled (mishandled?) the Steven Strasburg situation last year. They’re bound to be cautious with the prized young righthander, but it will be awfully tempting to try and ride his electric arm to and through the playoffs this season.

One of the more disappointing players this season (for me at least) has been OF/1B Nick Swisher. The first (and primary) big $$ free agent signing for the Indians this offseason, Swisher went into Saturday night’s game hitting just .241/.339/.404 with an 111 OPS+, 15 HR and 43 RBI in 112 games. All of those figures would represent his worst totals since his 2008 season in Chicago. After four remarkably consistent seasons in the friendly confines of New Yankee Stadium, his overall production has really fallen off this year back in his home state of Ohio. Looking inside the numbers though, there’s hope for Swisher to regain last year’s form. His HR rate is down 1.1%, but BB%, K%, GO/AO ratio and other numbers are virtually identical from his time in NY. His BABIP is down .020, even though his line drive rate has jumped from 20% to 27%. So part of his down season can be put down to bad luck, as his flyballs aren’t leaving the yard at the same rate and his line drives aren’t finding holes as often as they have in the past. Since the (admittedly arbitrary) date of August 7, Swisher has shown signs of returning to his old self, hitting .254/.338/.508 with 4 HR and 10 RBI (15 games). It’s a small sample size, but it is an encouraging trend as the Indians offense has struggled to find someone to rely on from month to month. If Mark Reynolds could carry the team through April (1.019 OPS, 8 HR and 22 RBI), then it doesn’t seem crazy to think that Swisher can get hot and be “THE GUY” ™ in September.

If you’ll indulge me for a moment, Indians beat reporter Jordan Bastian wrote an article with a quick blurb on an argument that manager Terry Francona had with home plate umpire Mike DiMuro in a game against Oakland. Tito was arguing an erroneous strike three call that DiMuro blew with Jason Kipnis at the plate, and despite seemingly knowing that he was wrong, DiMuro refused to change his call. As Francona relayed to Bastian:

"He foul tipped it, but the ball hit the dirt," said Francona, who argued the play on the field. "There was a big mark where the ball hit. The umpire kept saying, 'You're making a good point.' I said, 'I know, but you called him out.' He goes, 'Well, I can't change it.' I go, 'But look at the mark.' He just kept saying, 'You're making a good point.'"

I had to read that three times before I believed it; “you’re making a good point,” said the umpire. DiMuro knew he was wrong, but it would have been embarrassing to admit that. So he carried on with the call, and Kipnis remained an illegitimate strikeout victim. If DiMuro had simply swallowed his pride and made getting the call right his first priority, he’d have admitted his mistake and returned Kipnis to the batter’s box. But MLB umpires have some sort of absurd code that never allows for them to admit that they’ve made a mistake. It’s as if they believe that they’re infallible, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Umpires are people too, and they’re never going to get every call right. But at the very least, when they realize that they have blown a call, they should have the courage to admit it and do the right thing. Carrying themselves with inexplicable arrogance and refusing to change an obviously incorrect call only serves to intensify the calls for instant replay. The good folks over at Baseball Prospectus came together to build a list of 11 plays that they wished had the benefit of instant replay, complete with video. It’s a fun list that contains some of the more egregious blown calls throughout history, is an entertaining article to read when you have the time. Thanks for bearing with me there, and the #umpshow rant is now over.

Those who have read my stuff for a while now know that back in my playing days, I would don the tools of ignorance and settle happily behind home plate on a daily basis. As such, I’m probably a little harder on Carlos Santana’s defensive effort than most. I think he has the raw tools to be an average to above-average defensive catcher, it just seems like he’s more interested in the offensive side of his game. He has an above-average arm and is a good athlete, but throwing mechanics and footwork are sloppy, and he’s a very poor receiver. He doesn’t do his pitchers any favors with his attempts at framing close pitches, and probably costs them more strikes that anything. In that vein, I’d like to point you to Ben Lindbergh’s (free!) weekly column over at Baseball Prospectus in which he takes an in-depth look at catcher framing around the league. Lindbergh’s fantastic and incredibly in-depth work lists Santana as one of the league’s worst at framing (backing up my amateur guesswork) and shows that a whopping 445(!!!) pitches that Santana has caught in the strike zone this season have been called balls, while he’s turned 208 balls into strikes. Favorite Tom Hamilton whipping boy Jesus Montero appears on the worst list as well, with Ryan Doumit leading the way as the worst of the worst. Lindbergh includes some of the best and worst frame jobs from the past week in GIF form throughout the article, and they’re worth watching if only for the batters reactions when pitches that are clearly out of the zone are snapped back in by a Molina brother, resulting in a strike call from an umpire that is clearly both confused and impressed by the sleight of hand. Yan Gomes doesn’t appear on either the best or worst lists, but this earlier article from Lindbergh features Gomes as his “frame of the week” as he took a pitch from Joe Smith that was more than 6 inches outside of the strike zone and turned it into a called strike.

The Indians most visible fan, drummer John Adams, celebrated his 40^th anniversary as a fixture in the leftfield bleachers on Saturday. It’s hard to believe that Adams and his bass drum have been attending nearly every Indians game since August, 1973 when he was a young man of 21. Interestingly, it was a reporter’s lie that helped Adams decide to show up at the ballpark, rain or shine, night after night for the last 40 years. As Indians.com reporter Zach Meisel relates to us:

A photographer for the Cleveland Press snapped a portrait of him, and Sudyk later called him for an interview. The reporter asked whether Adams planned to attend the Indians' next game that Tuesday. Adams told him, "No."

"When the article came out," Adams said, "at the very end, it said: 'If you want to hear John's drum, come to the game tonight.' So not to make a liar out of the fifth estate, I said, 'Oh, why not?' So I went down there that Tuesday night and Wednesday night."

Still, for an English major at Cleveland State who worked in a phone company's accounts information department and was pursuing his Water Safety Instructor certification, there were not enough hours in the day to accommodate a daily trek to the ballpark.

Even when approached by Indians promotions director Jackie York, Adams declined.

"She said, 'We really like what you're doing here, banging on the drum for the team. Would you come to every game?'" Adams said. "And I said, 'No.' And I've come to virtually every game since."

Adams never brought his drum out to the ballpark looking to become a celebrity, local or otherwise. I’ve seen fans approach him for autographs or pose for pictures, and he always sheepishly agrees. He’s been to over 3,000 Indians games in his lifetime, having missed just 38 games in 40 years. That’s less than half of one season’s home games, spread out over 40 years. It’s crazy to think about, and Adams does it without his own webpage, publicist or stylist. He does have a (seldom used) twitter account and Anne Keegan in the Indians front office does sometimes bring him ice cream, but that’s about it. He’s not banging on his drum because he’s trying to land a spot on a reality TV show; he’s doing it because it is fun and he’s a big Indians fan.

Sorry for the short column this week, but work responsibilities and (bleh) house hunting have been grossly interfering with my “free time.” Anyway, the Indians now have 33 games left this season. It’s going to take 20+ wins to secure a playoff berth, regardless of what the teams in front of them do. Can they make it? Will John Adams and the rest of us get to watch playoff baseball at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this season? I’m honestly not sure, but I know I’m going to enjoy watching them down the stretch to find out. The updated Baseball Prospectus playoff odds gave then a 26.6% shot at the postseason as of Saturday afternoon, which sounds about right. Would I have taken those odds at the beginning of the season? Probably, especially considering the question marks in the starting rotation that we were all wondering about back in March. I feel like those odds will be much better at this point next season, but for once, we’re not stuck with looking towards next year in late-August. It’s been a fun ride, and I have a feeling that this roller coaster still has a few surprises before it pulls into the station at the end of the season.

Picking up the Pieces on a Lazy Sunday

So…that was an interesting week. The Indians came into August within shouting distance of 1^st place in the AL Central with a big series against the division-leading Tigers looming. Trailing the Kitties by 3 games headed into the 4-game series, even as poor a mathematician as myself could connect the dots and see the significance of the Indians protecting their home turf and at least winning the series against the Tigers. As we all know, game one started off well enough until Chris Perez picked a poor time to have his first bad outing in quite a while, giving up 4 runs in a 4-2 loss. Perez hadn’t allowed a crooked number on the scoreboard since his disastrous blown save in Boston back on May 26, (and as we know he landed on the DL after that outing). Worse even than losing that game to the Tigers, starter Corey Kluber wound up with an injury of his own, spraining his finger and going on the shelf for at least the next 4 weeks. The Indians then proceeded to drop the final three games in the series, and then Friday night’s game against the Angels for good measure. A three game deficit in the division suddenly turned into a 7.5 game chasm, and control of the 2^nd wild card spot ceded way to a 3.5 game hole. After Friday, the Indians found themselves just a half game above the streaking Royals for 2^nd place in the Central Division. What a difference a week makes.

None of this means the Indians are out of the playoff hunt, mind you. The Central Division may be a foregone conclusion at this point, as the Tigers have a 7.5 game lead and the best run differential in the major leagues. They’re going to be awfully tough to catch at this point, depressing as that may be to admit. But the other contenders for the two AL Wild Card spots are having their own issues. Tampa Bay is the favorite for one of the spots, but their #2 starter (Matt Moore) is on the DL. Texas lost Nelson Cruz to the Biogenesis suspensions, although they did manage to trade for Alex Rios (and Alex Rios’ contract) on Friday. Baltimore’s starting pitchers have struggled all season, and they play a far more difficult schedule the rest of the way out than the Indians will face. It’s an uphill climb and it’s going to involve a lot more scoreboard watching than the usual September playoff fight, but there’s still a chance for the Indians to snag a wild card slot for the first time in team history. Even after the Tigers debacle, Baseball Prospectus playoff odds had the Indians at a 28.5% chance of making it to the postseason (and a 1.1% chance of winning the World Series). That’s a far cry from the Tigers MLB-best 99.5% chance at the playoffs and 23.9% chance at taking home the hardware, but hey, at least we’re not the White Sox. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played, and the Indians schedule remains undaunting. This team is much better than last year’s edition that skidded to an 18-45 finish after The Verlander Game™, and I fully expect to be able to watch interesting baseball down the stretch in September. I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict a playoff spot or anything, but I’m also not ready to write off the season just yet. When the Indians lost 8 in a row back in June, the club responded by going 14-5 over the next 3+ weeks to get right back in playoff contention. Do they have a similar bounceback run in them after the August debacle? Time will tell, but I certainly think they’re capable.

Speaking of writing things off, the Indians finally got around to DFA’ing Mark Reynolds last week, a move that has been several weeks in the making. After an uncharacteristic and electric start to the season that saw Reynolds hit an impressive .291/.367/.645 with 11 HR and 29 RBI in the first 31 games of the season, he hit just 4 HR the rest of the way and was sporting a paltry .680 OPS when he was finally designated last week. Besides the stunning demise at the plate, word around the team suggested that Reynolds wasn’t exactly a leader in the clubhouse, either. Whispers from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario started leaking out a few weeks ago that Reynolds was not handling his reduced role with a veteran’s poise, and was particularly galled when he was (more and more frequently) pinch hit for late in games. As Francona put it to reporters following the move, “I think it was becoming harder for Mark to handle not playing.” Simple words from Tito, but read into that how you will. I know from watching the walkoff celebrations against the White Sox, Reynolds was nowhere to be found, having hit the showers early rather than sit in the dugout and support his teammates.. Giambi, Kip, Swish, Asdrubal and even Santana were front and center in the traditional home plate mobbings, but not once did I notice Mark Reynolds join into the fray. I’m not sure exactly how long that trend has been in place, but if in addition to his well-documented struggles at the plate, Reynolds became a drain in the clubhouse, then it really was past time for the Indians to cut bait and move on.

The primary beneficiaries of the Reynolds release in terms of playing time will of course be Lonnie Chisenhall at 3B and Yan Gomes behind the plate. In my mind, anything that gets us more Yan is a good thing. He’s a far superior defensive catcher in comparison with Santana, having gunned down an eye-popping 12 of the 23 runners who have attempted to steal on him this season. That’s an outstanding ratio, one that almost has to fall off at some point. He’s allowed just two passed balls and 19 wild pitches in 408 innings behind the dish, and the ERA of pitchers throwing to Gomes is 3.77. In comparison, Santana has thrown out (hide the women and children) just 5 of 49 would-be basestealers. He’s allowed five passed balls and 41(!) wild pitches in 607 innings, and the Indians staff has a 4.27 ERA when throwing to the Axe Man. I don’t find catcher ERA to be the end-all, be-all stat for determining how a backstop handles a pitching staff, but that’s a pretty big difference. Gomes is a much better receiver than Santana, moves better behind the dish and has much, much cleaner/faster throwing mechanics. And at the plate, Gomes has simply been a revelation. He’s hitting .303/.344/.527 with 8 HR in 165 AB this year, and that’s after a slow start. Since May 12, Gomes has played in 37 games and is hitting .328/.376/.531. It will be interesting to see what the Indians do this offseason, but it’s possible that they’ve solved their long-term hole at 1B by finding a catcher, allowing Santana to play more and more 1B. It’s still hard to believe that the Indians acquired both Gomes and Aviles for just Esmil Rodgers this offseason.

Ryan Raburn had a pretty big week, making his first career appearance on the mound in the 9^th inning of a blowout loss to the Tigers and agreeing to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million and a $3 million club option for 2016 ($100k buyout). After posting just a .480 OPS in 66 games with the Tigers last year (and spending a couple of stints in AAA), Raburn has responded with the best season of his career in selective action with the Indians here in 2013. He’s hitting .274/.366/.559 with 13 HR and 38 RBI in just 68 games on the North Shore, good for a 159 OPS+. It’s not as though Raburn is doing it with smoke and mirrors; his .322 BABIP in 2013 is just a tick over his career mark of .315. It’s actually a very similar season to his 2009 campaign, in which he hit .291/.359/.533 with 16 HR in 113 games with the Tigers. The Indians have been able to play him primarily in the OF rather than at 2B/3B to hide his defensive deficiencies, and he’s been a very useful contributor to the 2013 Indians. Still, this feels like a case of “buying high,” and a team like the Indians should be able to develop their own Raburn at a much cheaper cost. Cord Phelps and Jason Donald are just two names that I thought would develop into Raburn-esque pieces, but it just never happened. Still, Raburn has been worth nearly 2 wins to the Tribe this year (1.9 WAR), and if he can keep up that sort of production in selective duty, that contract will be a bargain. Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus discusses whether or not we should expect this sort of production from Raburn through the remainder of the contract:

As a corner outfielder/DH, Raburn’s bat isn’t as valuable as it once was at second or third, and since his platoon splits past tell us more than his platoon split present, his success against righties might be a mirage. But there is some real improvement here: Raburn has become more selective, swinging at only 44.1 percent of pitches, his lowest rate on record. And his O-swing rate is also down, to 21.2 percent, the 16th-lowest mark among the nearly 300 hitters who’ve seen at least 800 pitches this season. There’s also some small-sample fluke: Raburn has hit .305/.339/.746 with runners in scoring position, the kind of clutchness that endears a player to his new teammates and fans but shouldn’t influence a front office.

And yes, there was that inning on the bump against the Tigers. Raburn and the rest of the Indians sure looked like they were having fun despite the score, and RR did manage to set down the side in order. He even blew a 89 MPH fastball past Matt Tuiasosopo for a strikeout. I’ll provide the Brooks Baseball strikezone plot below for those who are really interested, and you’ll notice that Raburn lived exclusively above the belt with his 13 pitches, and was probably lucky to face the bottom of the Tigers order and not have any balls land in the seats beyond the outfield fence.

ESPN’s Buster Olney put together an interesting piece opining that this could be a very busy offseason on the trade front, owing primarily to the weak free agent class ready to hit the market. To that end, he again lists Asdrubal Cabrera as a potential piece that may be moved, shifting Mike Aviles to an everyday role to keep SS warm until Francisco Lindor is ready to assume his eventual spot at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. Asdrubal has been allegedly on the block since before the 2013 season even began, and Olney reported that the prospect-rich Cardinals were again inquiring about Cabrera leading up to the trading deadline. I’ve been advocating moving him pretty much all along provided the right offer is on the table, but I’m wondering if the Indians missed the window that would have generated the most return. From the all-star break through August 8, Asdrubal has hit a paltry .203/.229/.316 (.545 OPS) with 7 XBH (1 HR) in 83 plate appearances. He’s also walked just twice while striking out 16 times. Maybe it’s just a bad stretch, and I’ll fully acknowledge the arbitrary endpoints, but it’s part of a season where Cabrera has declined to an OPS+ of just 96. He seems to be pressing at the plate, and the advanced metrics have never loved his defense at SS (although he’s on pace for a career-low error total for a full season).

If you and I can sit here and see that Cabrera isn’t the same player he was in his all-star seasons of 2011/12, surely the Cardinals and other teams are coming to the same conclusion. So what are the chances the right offer is even on the table? Well, if you look at the shortstop market this season (courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors), you’ll be exceedingly underwhelmed. The “best” player on the list is none other than Jhonny Peralta, and he has some…off the field issues that drag his value down. So for a team like the Cardinals who will be in the market for a shortstop, it’s pretty much the trade market or bust. I traded tweets with Zach Mortimer, one of the prospect guru’s over at Baseball Prospectus, asking if he thought the Indians could get 1B Matt Adams and pitching prospect Carlos Martinez for Asdrubal this offseason. Not only did he say yes, but thought that the Cards would throw in an additional flyer as well. If the Cardinals came calling with that offer, I would encourage Chris Antonetti to take it and run. Not sure if that offer is going to be on the table, but the weak FA crop is sure going to make for an interesting hot stove this winter.

@Gotribe31 sounds about right to me I'm sure they throw in a flyer too.
— Zach Mortimer (@ZachMort) August 9, 2013

On a more cheery note, Doug Thorburn of Baseball Prospectus penned a very informative and positive article detailing the re-emergence of Justin Credible this season, focusing primarily on the increased use of his slider. It’s a premium article requiring a subscription; while I’m not qualified to tell you how to spend your money, I will say that if you do pay for a baseball related website, it’s impossible to find better writing for your dollar than at BP. Anyway, Thorburn does an excellent job breaking down pitching mechanics and overlaying his scouting expertise with statistical evidence. It’s a perfect hybrid of the sabermetric and scouting communities, and helps prove that the two can exist in harmony with each other (despite those on the fringes of each side who foolishly insist that some sort of “stats vs scouting” dichotomy must exist). In the full version of the article, Thorburn provides some .gifs of the action on Masterson’s fastball and slider, showing how each pitch moves and can be effective to hitters on both sides of the plate. As he explains though, the improvement from 2012 to 2013 rests on the laurels of Masterson’s increased use of the slider:

Fastballs of various types make up 72 percent of Masterson's pitches this year, but his performance on heaters is very similar to 2012, a year in which he had a 4.93 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. As is the case with Liriano, the slider is the key to Masterson's statistical gains this season. The strikeouts tell the whole story: batters have struck out 99 times in 174 at-bats that ended with a slider, a ridiculous rate of 56.9 percent (compared to his 44.9 percent rate last season). Meanwhile, his fastballs have resulted in just 72 strikeouts in 430 pitch-ending at-bats (16.7 percent).

Masterson throws the slider to batters on both sides of the plate, but he favors the pitch to right-handed batters by a five-percent margin. The breaker has a more vertical trajectory than a typical slider, despite his sidearm delivery, and the downward movement aids the pitch's effectiveness against lefty bats. The slider has easily been Masterson's most dominant pitch from a performance standpoint, but what it has done to opposing righties in 2013 is downright criminal: in 85 at-bats that finished with the slider, right-handed batters have just two hits (both singles), for a .024 average and .000 ISO, in addition to 57 strikeouts. The pitch has just been filthy.

In the comments beneath the article, I asked Thorburn if he thought the improvement was something we could expect to see over the long term with Masty. His response:

Pitchers can be different entities year-to-year, but I really like the overall trend of his rising release point as an indicator of his physical improvements. 
The slider is Masterson's most effective pitch, and he has been using it more and more over the last few years, with a 3-yr frequency of 15.0% - 19.3% - 27.9%, so he is throwing it nearly twice as often now as in 2011. 

The downward movement on all of his pitches is key, and the increased use of the slider as a wipeout pitch bodes well for his K rate moving forward. Time will tell if that all carries over into 2014, but I think that you can trust him for the rest of this season.

Regardless of what happens the rest of this year, the Indians rotation is shaping up well for 2014. Between Masterson, Salazar, Kluber, McAllister, Bauer/Carrasco/House, the Indians have plenty of internal options for the rotation next season. This is good, because the rotation depth will allow Chris Antonetti and company to focus on straightening out the bullpen and augmenting an already-solid lineup.

Sticking with the rotation theme, the Indians have announced that Scott Kazmir will miss his next scheduled start due to arm fatigue, which can’t be too surprising. Kazmir has thrown 114 innings in 2013 after throwing just 1 2/3’s MLB innings between 2011-12. Carlos Carrasco is going to get the start for Kazmir next week, and it was Carrasco who came on in relief of Kazmir when the latter was roughed up in his most recent start this past Friday. Carrasco threw 5 innings of one hit ball on Friday, walking three and striking out four. It was the 1^st relief appearance on the season for the 26-year old out of Venezuela, and the Indians are still holding out to see if he can harness his considerable talent for good instead of evil. His most recent MLB start was a disaster, as he allowed 7 runs (6 ER) in a loss to the Tigers back on July 6. His well-documented struggles at the MLB level this year notwithstanding, he has actually been pretty good for AAA Columbus. He’s 3-1 in 14 starts for the Clippers, posting a 3.14 ERA and recording 79 K and 21 BB in 71 2/3 IP. I’ve long been one of Cookie’s more devoted believers, but even I’m down on the not-so-youngster after his well-documented struggles this season. I still believe in the talent, but I’m getting more and more concerned about his ability to handle the mental side of the game. A good start on Wednesday won’t mean he’s figured it out, but it sure would be a good sign after the season he’s had.

Lastly, Grantland’s Jonah Keri did a fun piece on the somewhat subjective topic of the “bestcoolest” hitters he’s seen in his time as a baseball fan. Keri’s memories start in the early 80’s, and (spoiler alert) Barry Bonds snags the #1 overall spot on his list. Cleveland does feature prominently on his list, as the entire 1995 Cleveland Indians take the #5 slot (the only team to appear on the list). There’s a classic YouTube video embedded in the article, one that brought back some of my favorite moments as a sports fan. So enjoy that as we wonder if the 2013 version of Chief Wahoo’s Tribe can pull a rabbit out of the hat and put together another run to the postseason.

Approaching the Deadline on a Lazy Sunday

You’ll have to forgive me if this week’s edition of Lazy Sunday is both short and a little discombobulated. I started writing it earlier in the week, and then got a bit sidetracked when I was forced to spend all day Friday and most of Saturday in the hospital. Long story short, I woke up at 3am with horrible stomach pain and finally went to the ER at around 7am Friday morning. A quick ultrasound later, I come to find out that I have gall stones and my gall bladder has to come out, immediately. Immediately is a relative term in a hospital of course, but I suppose that it’s a miracle of modern medicine that about 12 hrs after arriving at the hospital, I was lying in a recovery bed sans gall bladder. So much of this week’s article will be written under the influence of perchocet as I lie in bed on the road to recovery. Please forgive both the brevity of the piece as well as any misspellings, but with the trade deadline fast-approaching, I wanted to get some thoughts out there for you all. So with that said, let’s kick off the first ever Lazy Sunday under the influence of drugs…

The first domino in the annual July trade deadline fell at the beginning of last week, when the Texas Rangers acquired starting pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for minor league 3B Mike Olt and a pair of young arms. The Indians, looking to shore up their starting rotation heading down the stretch, were reportedly interested in Garza as well. With few legit starters on the market though, it was a sellers’ market, and the Rangers were able to meet the steep price that the Cubs were asking for the righty. Garza is going to be a free agent following the 2013 season, and with the new collective bargaining rules, the team that loses Garza won’t even be eligible for draft pick compensation since he was traded mid-season. The lack of club control and the high cost in prospect currency combined to keep the Indians out of serious contention for Garza’s services, and with good reason. A very rough guess as to a comparable package from the Indians would have included Lonnie Chisenhall, Scott Barnes and T.J. House. That’s an awful steep price for 2 ½ months of Matt Garza.

Speaking of Chisenhall, his defensive struggles are overshadowing the fact that he’s been a pretty good hitter of late. In 15 games in the month of July, Chiz is hitting .269/.333/.462 with 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB and 5 strikeouts. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s put together a solid stretch of games since being recalled from AAA Columbus. Chisenhall is still just 24 years old, and if he can just figure out how to hit lefties at the ML level (.374 OPS against LHP in 36 plate appearances with Cleveland), he can be a very solid player at the hot corner for the Tribe.  

This of course brings us to the question of what the Indians are going to do here at the trade deadline. As of now, it appears that three options are on the table; buy a bullpen arm and a starter on what has become a sellers market, try to take advantage of the sellers market by moving players of their own, or simply doing nothing. The Padres have made relievers Huston Street and Luke Gregerson available, and Gregerson would look awfully good as a setup man in what has become a terrible Indians bullpen. But in my mind, buying is the least attractive option for the Indians this season. With the market shaping up like it is, the prospect currency it would take to add even one impact arm looks to outweigh the benefit. Detroit isn’t running away with the division, but they’re a talented club that looks primed to improve their overall winning % down the stretch, not collapse. So that leaves the team with the choice to sell or sit pat.

I received an e-mail from Pauly C. down at Del Boca Vista earlier this week pointing me in the direction of this piece in the Chicago Tribune. I’ll snip the most relevant section here:

The Sox are listening to proposals. They turned down a deal involving pitcher Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals third-highest rated prospect, for shortstop Alexei Ramirez, according to a scouting source.

Martinez, 21, is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 11 starts at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Martinez, who possesses a fastball in the high-90s mph range, has struck out 44 hitters in 52 innings.

Leaving the fact that the White Sox must be crazy not to take that deal, let’s put it in the context of what the Indians could offer the Cardinals. Yes, we’re back to the possibility that Asdrubal Cabrera could be dealt to St. Louis to strengthen the most vulnerable part of their roster. If the Cards were willing to offer Martinez for Ramirez, who hasn’t posted a OPS+ over 100 since his rookie season back in 2008, what would they be willing to offer for Asdrubal? Cabrera is coming off of back-to-back all-star seasons in 2011/12, and while not setting the world on fire this year, his .737 OPS in 2013 far outpaces Ramirez’s .664 figure. Going back to that e-mail from Pauly, would the Cardinals be willing to part with Martinez, Matt Adams (blocked at 1B) and another arm for Asdrubal and a lower-level prospect? It sure seems that way, although we of course don’t know for sure. If that deal is on the table, I think that Chris Antonetti and company would be crazy to let it pass by. Martinez is a top-50 prospect who could break in out of the bullpen this year and assume a role in the starting rotation next season. Adams is under club control, and could be a long-term solution to the DH/1B woes that have plagued the Indians for so long. It wouldn’t kill the Indians playoff hopes this year due to the presence of Mike Aviles, and would really go a long way towards strengthening next year’s team. If you’re still not convinced, humor me and read this scouting report on Martinez from the good folks at Baseball Prospectus:

Martinez has always drawn considerable praise for his exceptional fastball. He consistently sits in the 94-97 mph range with his four-seamer and has regularly touched 99 mph in the past. Even his sinking two-seamer has excellent velocity, sitting in the 92-93 mph range and touching 95 when he wants a little more. Martinez likes to attack with his fastball and shows the ability to move it around the zone when he doesn’t overthrow. To back up up his fastball, Martinez offers both a very good curveball and changeup. His curveball will occasionally work as a plus pitch with tight rotation and good depth.

As if that weren’t enough, Martinez’s changeup could be a second legitimate plus-plus offering. He has tremendous arm speed when throwing it, affording him excellent deception. Martinez routinely throws strikes with all three pitches and over the last two seasons has developed his ability to work outside the zone and make the “pitcher’s pitch.” If the Cardinals decide to keep Martinez in the bullpen long term, he could become an All-Star-level closer. But many scouts still believe Martinez has a future as a no. 2 starter in a championship rotation.

That of course all depends on the Cardinals putting the right offer on the table for Cabrera. If not, I think the Indians would be served to sit tight at this year’s deadline. Normally, I’d be strongly against this option, as I feel like teams should either go all-in or move everything not nailed down in an effort to improve next year. But when you look at this Joe Ponanski piece on the Royals offseason trade for James Shields, you can see how the desire to make a move, any move, can sometimes backfire. With Salazar, Bauer and Carrasco as rotation options next year, a healthy Vinnie Pestano reclaiming the 8^th inning and an intelligent offseason addition or two, the Indians are really built more for 2014 than 2013 anyhow. That’s pretty much the thesis of this ESPN Sweet Spot article, which closes with this paragraph:

With a core of Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Justin Masterson, Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, the Indians are close to contending. However, this probably isn't their year. So while it would be fun if they tried to make a splash at the deadline, the lack of available upgrades and the fact they are not quite as good as the Tigers suggests the will (and should) stand pat. 

And that article doesn’t even mention the Indians three young starters who could contribute next year.

Everyone who expected Scott Kazmir to be pitching effectively for the Indians through August, stand up and be recognized. I was bullish on Kazmir going into the season, but didn’t expect him to stick in the rotation for this long. I figured he’d either be injured and on the DL or replaced due to ineffectiveness. Instead, the 29-year old lefty seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on. He’s pitching his best baseball of the season of late, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in a start since June 15. In his 7 starts since then, Kazmir has gone 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA, 35 K and 12 BB in 45 innings pitched. Opposing batters are hitting just .148 against him, and he’s allowed only 2 HR. Kazmir’s emergence as a consistently reliable option helps the Indians front office, as they don’t have to make a panic move to acquire a starting pitcher in a difficult trade market. When the Astros are reportedly asking for not one, but two “top prospects” in return for Bud Norris, you know it is not exactly a buyer’s market. Kazmir might just be pricing himself out of an Indians uniform, as if he can stay healthy and effective he’s in line for a decent payday this offseason. That was pretty much unfathomable just a year ago, when he was pitching in the independent leagues.

It’s hard to believe that Danny Salazar’s electric debut was just over two weeks ago; it feels like an awful lot has happened since then. Since returning to AAA Columbus, Salazar has allowed a pair of earned runs in 7 IP, striking out 10(!) without walking a batter. He’s biding his time with the Clippers, waiting until injury or ineffectiveness necessitates a return trip up I-71 for the talented young righthander. But it doesn’t have to be that way. A more effective use for Salazar this season might be out of the Indians bullpen, especially with the recent struggles of the relief corps on the North Shore. Salazar could be a dominant, multi-inning force out of the pen, and even act as a “piggyback” for Ubaldo every 5^th day. The Big U has been somewhat effective of late, but he’s been a 5-and-fly guy who can’t get through a lineup the third time through the order. If Ubaldo can go five solid innings and turn it over to Salazar for three, the Indians could have a sort of two-headed monster at their disposal. Salazar’s already electric stuff would play up even further in shorter bursts, and it would allow the Indians to manage his innings coming of Tommy John surgery last year. It would get him valuable experience pitching in pressure situations against major league hitters, and allow the Indians to shore up what has become the weakest aspect of the club this year.

As we discussed going into the all-star break, Indians top prospect Francisco Lindor was promoted to AA Akron from high-A Carolina. Lindor has appeared in 11 games with the Aeros as of Friday, and has been nothing short of sensational. The switch-hitting shortstop is batting a robust .395/.531/.579 with a HR, one 3B, 2 2B and 6 RBI. He’s walked an impressive 10 times while striking out just once. He’s 5-7 in stolen base attempts, and has scored 9 runs from the top of the Aeros lineup. When you watch the youngest player in the Eastern League (turns 20 in November) tear through opposing pitching like that, it makes it hard to believe that his best tool is his defense. I don’t expect Lindor to sport a 1.110 OPS at the end of the season, but watching him dominate AA pitching is a sight to behold. I was lucky enough to see him twice last week when the Aeros took a road trip to play the Bowie Baysox, and there’s no doubt that he’s the best player on the field when he steps between the chalk. Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball America all rated Lindor as their #5 prospect in all of baseball when their mid-season rankings were released, and it’s easy to see why. Lindor is a special talent, a kid who could be an all-star shortstop for many, many years down the road. If the Indians do end up moving Asdrubal Cabrera, it will be because they have the talented Lindor waiting in the wings, remarkably ready to move up to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as soon as the 2014 season.

Lastly, I’d like to wish former Indians manager Eric Wedge best wishes and a speedy recovery from his recent health issues. In case you hadn’t heard, Wedge suffered what was described as a minor stroke earlier this week when the Indians were in Seattle to take on the Mariners. I don’t think the words “stroke” and “minor” should really even appear in the same sentence, as something like that is always serious. At age 45, Wedgie is way too young to have to worry about things like that, and hopefully the docs can figure out what’s wrong in a hurry so it doesn’t happen again. 

Approaching the All-Star Break on a Lazy Sunday

It’s been a while since we’ve shared a Lazy Sunday together. It’s been a busy summer, with a perfect storm of work and personal life conspiring to sap me of nearly all of my free time, so I’ve unfortunately had precious little chance to write. I hope you’ve missed this column as much as I’ve missed writing it, and if I had my way there would be 6,000+ words up here at least once a week. I still have interviews with several minor league players and coaches to write up as well, and you’ll hopefully be seeing those again on a regular basis very soon. I’m not one for excuses though, so let’s jump right into what you actually came here for on this Sunday morning; a look at our 2^nd place Indians leading up to the all-star break.

The most newsworthy item of the past week occurred early Thursday afternoon, when pitching prospect Danny Salazar turned his major league debut against the Blue Jays into a 6-inning coming out party. Salazar threw 5 no-hit innings to begin his major league career and wound up allowing just one run on two hits through six innings, walking one and striking out seven. Salazar nearly wound up with a hard-luck no-decision, but the offense came alive in the bottom of the sixth, plating a pair of runs en route to a 4-2 victory in the series finale against Toronto. I’ve had a front-row seat on the Danny Salazar bandwagon since he dominated for the Aeros down the stretch last season after his return from Tommy John surgery. While I can safely say I expected him to find success last week, I didn’t see that level of dominance coming.

Salazar was every bit as good as the numbers would indicate, if not better. Using the fantastic Brooks Baseball pitchf/x data, let’s go a little deeper inside Salazar’s gem. He threw 89 pitches in the game, and 64 of those pitches were strikes. All seven of his strikeouts were of the swinging variety. Salazar worked primarily off of his fastball, throwing 51 4-seamers (39 strikes). Of those 51 4-seam fastballs, a whopping 35 were at or above 94 MPH. His AVERAGE fastball velocity was 96.58 MPH. Velocity isn’t everything of course, but a fastball with that kind of giddyup both allows for greater freedom within the strike zone and does an excellent job setting up one’s offspeed pitches. When you look at this strike zone plot of Salazar’s outing, pay special attention to the yellow squares down and out of the zone. Those are swings and misses, and they’re on pitches that aren’t particularly close to being strikes. Hitters have to make their mind up pretty early when looking at a 96+ MPH fastball, and less time for pitch recognition and selection can result in hitters offering at some pretty bad pitches.

Interestingly, Salazar threw 26 changeups (19 strikes, 6 of which were swinging) and just 5 sliders. Coming into 2013, Salazar was seen as having two potential plus pitches in his fastball and slider. His changeup was a developing offering that he was going to have to improve upon in order to have a long-term future in a major league rotation. It appears that Salazar put a lot of work in on his changeup, possibly even at the expense of his slider, because the change has been getting a much higher grade this season than his slider. If he can regain the feel for his slider and keep his changeup diving down and out of the zone, than the Indians will really have something in the young righty. He was my #6 prospect in the organization coming into the season and outperformed even that lofty ranking, going 5-5 with a 3.08 ERA, 100 K and 23 BB in 76 innings between AA Akron and AAA Columbus this season. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in the organization, and if the Indians are going to make a run at a playoff spot this season, Salazar will likely be a part of it. He’s not going to pitch like he did on Thursday every time out, but he has the physical and mental game to succeed at the big league level right now.

If you’ll allow me a brief umpire tangent; the first hit (and only run) allowed by Salazar never should have occurred. Leading off the 6^th inning, Toronto backstop Josh Thole fell behind 0-2 after chasing a changeup down in the dirt. On pitch 3, Salazar came back with another change that fooled Thole, and it crossed the plate pretty much right down the middle, thigh high. It was called a ball. Again using the Brooks Baseball chart below, you’ll see what I’m talking about; pitch #3 is a green square, indicating that it was inexplicably called a ball by home plate umpire Tony Randazzo. As usually happens, Thole singled later in the at bat and eventually came around to score on Jose Bautista’s RBI double.

By no means am I saying that Randazzo was out to get the Indians, or Salazar in particular. It’s just an example of the myriad of issues that have plagued MLB umpires all season long. The strikezone shrinks when the count is 0-2, and expands when it’s 3-0. It drove me crazy as a player, and continues to drive me crazy as a fan. A gift 3-0 strike allowing a pitcher back into an at bat can completely change the dynamic of an inning, and a 0-2 gift to the hitter can result in the pitcher losing a no-hitter, shutout, and possibly the game. That’s the beauty of baseball; every pitch fits in to the greater story of the game, and none is less important than any other. Umpires consistently changing the strike zone based on the count makes for a frustrating game to play and watch. It cost Salazar and the Indians on Thursday, and could have meant the game if the offense didn’t pick things up in the bottom half of the 6^th. Rant over, and thanks for bearing with me there.

The calendar tells us that we’re pretty much halfway through the month of July, which means that the non-wavier trading deadline is less than three weeks away. The Indians look to be in a similar position as the one they found themselves in back in 2011; close enough to contend, but a team that is likely ultimately too flawed to go deep in the postseason even if they make it past the Tigers for the Central Division crown. We all know what happened in 2011 though, as GM Chris Antonetti pushed all of his chips into the center of the table in a deal for Colorado Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Antonetti is faced with a similar quandary here in 2013, as the starting rotation for the 2^nd place Tribe has been up and down as expected, and the bullpen has been surprisingly ineffective. We’re already hearing names like Matt Garza (who would be a ½ season rental) and Yovanni Gallardo (who has Cleveland on his no-trade list) getting thrown around as potentially helping to round out the inconsistent rotation. But ESPN’s Buster Olney threw out another interesting name in his (insider required) column on Friday; shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. While the Indians are far too close to 1^st place to wave the white flag, Cabrera remains an attractive candidate to move at or before the trading deadline. Olney reports that both the Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals have inquired about Cabrera, and you’d have to think that Antonetti would listen should either club make an attractive offer that includes a high-end, close to MLB ready pitching prospect. I’ll let Olney explain:

Sources say there has been more discussion about a possible swap that was talked about in the offseason: the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera to St. Louis. 

It’s unclear just how far advanced these talks are, whether it’s more conceptual or internal at the moment, and undoubtedly, it’s a deal that would be more easily done in the offseason, with more time. 

But it’s a situation worth watching, because it could be an in-season match that could make sense for both teams. For St. Louis, Cabrera would represent an upgrade at shortstop: He’s 27 years old and a switch-hitting, two-time All-Star with power and experience. Cabrera has a .725 OPS and has demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions, which is why the Yankees have asked about him repeatedly. He could play shortstop, yes, but also third base or second or even first, so if the Yankees needed to fill in for Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez or Robinson Cano -- depending on developments ranging from injury (Jeter and A-Rod) to PED suspension (A-Rod) to free-agent departure (Cano, perhaps), Cabrera could step in. Cabrera makes $6.5 million this year, and will earn $10 million next season, before becoming eligible for free agency. 

Cabrera would be replaced by Mike Aviles in the short term, and Francisco Lindor (more on him later) in the long-term. The Indians impressive organizational depth at shortstop (and lack of impact SP prospects) would allow for the deal to take place without the team taking a significant step back in terms of playoff contention for 2013-15. Cabrera has a pair of all-star selections to his credit, but we are all very familiar with his lack of 2^nd half production and tendency to…have priorities other than conditioning. He’s as good as gone after 2014 anyway, as there’s pretty much no chance the Indians pay him $10 million or more a year with a guy like Lindor waiting in the wings. It would be a trade that doesn’t follow the “all-in” Ubaldo deal in 2011, nor would it be raising the white flag on the 2013 season because of the ability for Mike Aviles to step in and play a serviceable shortstop on a daily basis until Lindor is ready. Juan Diaz would be recalled from Columbus to play Aviles’ utility infielder role, and that would be a step down in terms of production there. But if the Indians are offered a legitimate future front of the rotation starting pitcher in return for 1 ½ seasons of Asdrubal Cabrera, I can’t see turning that down because of a downgrade in your backup SS. I’m not advocating dumping Cabrera for 75 cents on the dollar, but if the prospect-rich Cardinals make the Indians an offer that contains pitcher Carlos Martinez plus another arm, I’m certainly considering it if I’m Chris Antonetti.

Talk of trading Asdrubal midway through the 2013 season makes you wonder whether or not the Indians front office did enough to improve the team this offseason. If the Indians aren’t buyers at the deadline, then Antonetti and company failed, right? Well, not necessarily. Daniel Rathman of Baseball Prospectus took a look inside the numbers for the 2013 Indians, and found that there has been considerable improvement from the 2012 squad:

The Tribe entered play on Thursday ranked fifth in the majors in runs scored and sixth in True Average, a considerable improvement from last year, when Cleveland placed 22nd and 18th, respectively, in those categories. The Indians’ fielding also has been markedly better this year than it was in 2012, enough to bump their park-adjusted defensive efficiency up from 24th to 12th in the league.

As we all expected, the free agent signings and trades did a great job shoring up the offense, allowing the Indians to jump into the top echelon in baseball in both runs scored and TAv. Nick Swisher hasn’t set the world on fire, but he’s still managed a 118 OPS+ in an injury-effected 1^st half. Mark Reynolds has been downright terrible of late, but he carried the offense in April when other guys in the lineup were struggling, and no matter what he does this season it will be more than Casey Kotchman contributed last year. Michael Bourn has been pretty much as advertised at the top of the lineup. And just as important as the offensive contributions, having Bourn, Stubbs, Aviles and Swisher in the field has allowed the Indians to work their way from near the bottom to the top half of the league defensively. Last year’s Indians were succeeding despite being outscored by their opponents, doing it more with smoke and mirrors than anything else. The epic collapse after the Verlander game was disappointing, but not completely shocking. This year, the Indians have outscored their opponents by 21 runs going into Saturday, a number more commensurate with their 49-44 record. This team doesn’t just have a better record, but they’re better on the field (if that makes sense).

But despite the improvements in the lineup and in the field, the pitching has been disappointing, both the starters and the bullpen. The Indians team ERA ranks 27^th in the league at 4.38, a number that has to come down if the club expects to contend for a playoff spot. The major move this offseason to address the pitching staff has proved ineffective, as Brett Myers has been injured and extremely homer-prone when he was on the mound. I’m just not sure the pitching staff as a whole is good enough for the Indians to win a playoff series, even if they do manage to make it past the Tigers. So a move to shore up the starting rotation for next season, even if it costs the Indians Asdrubal Cabrera, could set the Indians up for the 2014 season. If next year’s rotation options include Masterson, Kluber, McAllister, Salazar, Bauer, Carrasco and a high-level prospect or two obtained from a Cabrera trade, I feel pretty good about the 2014 Cleveland Indians and their chances for a deep playoff run.

Speaking of Lindor, get your DVR’s ready, because you’re going to have a chance to see the talented young shortstop on national TV this weekend when the MLB Futures Game is aired on Sunday (2pm, ESPN2). Lindor will be representing the Indians and his native Puerto Rico on the World Team for the 2^nd time, and for some Tribe fans it will be the first chance to see the #1 prospect in the organization in action. Lindor enters the game as a consensus top-10 prospect, as he’s the #4 player in Baseball Prospectus’ midseason rankings, and #5 in Baseball America’s list. Keith Law doesn’t release his midseason top prospects list until next week, but he lists Lindor as having the best hit tool in the Futures Game, and one of the best gloves. I had a chance to interview Lindor earlier this season, and came away extremely impressed with the 19-year old switch hitter. He’s an incredibly gifted fielder, a better hitter than he gets credit for (3^rd in the Carolina League in hitting) and a mature leader on and off the field. He’s hitting .306/.373/.410, has 20 stolen bases, and his glove is better than his bat or his legs. The .306 average is 3^rd in the Carolina League, trailing only teammate Joey Wendle and Red Sox prospect Garin Cecchini (who was promoted to AA a couple of weeks ago). The Indians announced that Lindor will be promoted to AA Akron following the Future’s Game, so Cleveland-based fans will have a chance to see him live and in person soon enough. Watching him on the field, it’s tough to remember that he’ll play the entire season as a19-year old. #LindorBC

While we’re talking prospects, I’d be remiss to not bring up the Indians most recent 1^st round draft pick, OF Clint Frazier. Frazier signed quickly and for slightly below slot, accepting a $3.5 million bonus when the Indians were allotted $3.787 million for the pick. He seemed genuinely eager to get the contract negotiations out of the way and get back out on the baseball diamond. He reported to the Indians Goodyear complex to play with the Arizona League Indians, and promptly hit a home run in his first professional at bat. Small sample size of course, but the 18-year old Frazier is hitting .327/.357/.571 with a HR, 3 triples, 3 doubles and 14 RBI in 13 AZL contests. Just for comparison’s sake, 19-year old D’Vone McClure, the Indians 4^th round pick in last year’s draft, is hitting just .197/.269/.262 in 15 games, and he came into this season with 24 AZL games under his belt. That’s not to pick on McClure, who is a talented player, but more to show that AZL success is far from assured from high draft picks. So while it’s a small sample from Frazier, it’s an encouraging sample, and I’d expect to see him in Mahoning Valley or even Lake County before the end of the 2013 season. He’ll be easy to spot on the diamond; just look for the kid who looks like former University of Wisconsin basketball player Mike Bruesewitz.

Finally, on a fun note, Scott Lewis over at The Score blog put together an oral history of the 1989 Cleveland Indians for your reading pleasure. No, not the 73-89 Indians that finished in 6^th place in the AL East, but the fictional 1989 Indians from the classic comedy Major League. Reading Charlie Donovan, Lou Brown and Harry Doyle (among others) “reminisce” about the Indians miracle run to the 1989 playoffs was a lot of fun for me, especially having seen the movie as many times as I have. Pretty much any kid growing up in Cleveland in the ‘90s has seen the movie at least once, and if you were anything like me and my friends, you’ve seen it close to 100 times. It’s a fun piece to read heading into the all-star break as we wonder if this year’s Indians have a similar run in them…