Francisco Lindor, B.C.

It was June 6, 2011, 67 years to the day after Generals Eisenhower and Bradley ordered the combined allied troops to begin storming the beaches of Normandy, France in what was the beginning of the end for Adolf Hitler’s “1000 year” Reich. Coincidence? Absolutely. Because all we’re talking about is the 2011 Rule 4 Amateur draft. I was sitting nervously on my couch when Bud Selig announced that the Indians were on the clock. The 2011 draft was universally held as one of the most talented in years, and the Indians had the #8 overall pick. It would be almost difficult to screw up a top-10 pick in a draft that loaded, but if ESPN’s Keith Law and other “experts” were to believed, the Indians were about to do just that. Most of the so-called “experts” had the Indians selecting a low-ceiling, high-floor collegiate arm like Taylor Jungmann or Jed Bradley. A safe, signable pick, but a completely uninspiring choice that would have been a waste of the #8 pick in the draft. I had recently published a couple of articles pining for the selection of prep shortstop Francisco Lindor if he was still on the board, or flamethrowing high schooler Archie Bradley if Lindor wasn’t around. Well, Bradley went 7^th overall to the Arizona Diamondbacks, leaving Lindor (and the gaggle of college arms) on the board for the Indians at #8. As the seconds ticked off the clock, I got that all-too familiar feeling in the pit of my stomach. The feeling that most Cleveland fans get when their team is on the clock; the feeling that something is about to go terribly wrong. But when the always-excitable Bud Selig read off the Indians’ selection, it was high school shortstop Francisco Lindor. I let out a yell of excitement, and got down to business writing a celebratory article about the Indians making what I hoped and believed was the best selection possible for the future of the franchise.

Lindor signed right at the deadline in 2011 for an overslot bonus of $2.9 million. He reported to short-season Mahoning Valley in time to play in 5 games, collecting 6 hits in 19 at bats with the Scrappers during his professional debut. It was a brief taste of professional baseball for the switch-hitting prodigy, but enough to get his feet wet. The Indians aggressively assigned the 18-year old to low-A Lake County to open the 2012 season, and Lindor responded by hitting a very respectable .257/.352/.355 with 6 HR, 42 RBI and 27 SB in 122 games for the Lake County Captains. The low-A Midwest League is a notoriously difficult environment for hitters, so for the young Lindor to put up that line while at the same time providing Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, you know the Indians had to be happy with their young prodigy. Lindor came into the 2013 season as the consensus top prospect in the organization, and a top-10 overall guy in all of baseball. The Indians had Lindor stick around in big-league camp during nearly all of spring training, getting him valuable experience in a major league clubhouse before assigning him to the high-A Carolina Mudcats for opening day. Like the Midwest League, the Carolina League is known to be friendlier to pitchers than hitters. But like in the Midwest League, Lindor is more than holding his own here in 2013. He’s appeared in 63 games for the Mudcats so far this season, and is hitting a solid .296/.371/.399 with a HR, 21 RBI, 4 triples and 15 stolen bases. Probably the most impressive stat for the 19-year old is the 28 walks to just 29 strikeouts that he’s accumulated this season. That kind of plate discipline for a 19-year old in the Carolina League is nearly unheard of. And when you consider that Lindor’s lofty prospect status is built primarily on his defense, not his offense, you begin to see why the Indians are so excited for their shortstop of the future.

I caught up with Lindor a couple of weeks ago when the Mudcats were visiting the Potomac Nationals here in Virginia. I got to watch him take infield before the game, an experience I can only describe as baseball pornography. Lindor took a couple dozen routine groundballs, then proceeded to take balls far to his left and right, ranging far up the middle and deep in the hole. Bored with these seemingly routine tasks, Lindor then started fielding balls between his legs and behind his back. He would flip the ball to 2^nd with his hands, glove, and I think I even saw him kick a ball over. It was a beautiful sight, and I stood there with Mudcats radio play-by-play announcer Darren Headrick, simply awestruck at the sight of Lindor fielding groundballs. When I expressed my feelings to Headrick, he simply chuckled, shook his head and said, “He does this every day. It’s incredible.”

Unsurprisingly, when I asked Lindor about his favorite thing on the baseball field, his answer centered on defense. “Turning double plays; that’s the most fun play that’s out there. Getting a groundball is always fun, but when you can help out your pitcher by getting two outs on one play, that’s awesome.” Lindor is a very good hitter, but he’s an exceptional defender, and when you’re watching him in the field whether it’s before or during the games, it’s clear that he enjoys his ability to be creative on the defensive side of the game.

In addition to being named to the Midwest League All-Star team in 2012, Lindor was one of the Indians two selections for the MLB Future’s Game during MLB All-Star weekend last year. I asked Lindor about the experience playing with potential future stars from around baseball. “It was an honor representing the Indians, representing Puerto Rico and representing my family,” said the young shortstop. It’s a virtual certainty that Lindor will again be one of the Indians representatives to the Futures Game in 2013, so if you haven’t had a chance to see him play, that game will be televised as part of All-Star weekend. Get your DVRs ready, because it’s an experience that you won’t want to miss.

As expected, Lindor had nothing but great things to say about Mudcats manager Dave Wallace. Wallace was the skipper for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in 2011 and then for the Lake County Captains in 2012, so he’s had the pleasure of managing the athletic young shortstop for his entire professional career. “I haven’t had any other manager; he’s awesome. He’s a great guy, keeps the dugout loose, has fun, respects the game and respects us and that’s what he asks out of us. To respect the game, respect him and respect each other and respect the clubhouse. He’s a great guy; humble, and I’ve been with him since day one. He’s awesome.” The Indians are lucky to have someone like Wallace managing a talent like Lindor, as he’s a perfect personality to get the most out of the talented shortstop and help speed his development towards the big leagues.

Talking to Lindor, I was incredibly impressed by the teenager’s maturity and confidence. There’s very little that Francisco Lindor cannot do on a baseball field, and he knows it. That’s not to suggest that Lindor is cocky or overconfident; far from it. But he’s appropriately confident for a player of his age and ability, and is already a leader in the clubhouse despite his relative inexperience. Part of that leadership ability comes from Lindor’s experience with the major league team this spring. I asked him what he learned from the Indians in Goodyear, and Lindor responded, “I had a blast; I got to know the big leaguers and they made it pretty comfortable for me, and I learned a lot from them. It’s just a game; those guys go about their business, making sure they take care of their job and be consistent every day. Taking every pitch the same way, the same approach in the field and spending every day trying to get better.” Consistency is a theme for Lindor; it’s obvious he has the talent to succeed at the highest level of the game; he just needs to add strength/size to his frame and be more consistent. He’s created a catchphrase for himself, “Lindor B.C.” As in “Lindor, Be Consistent.” Coming soon to a bumper sticker near you.

Along the same lines, when I asked Lindor if he was working on anything specific this season, he just said that “I’m working on everything, improving every aspect of my game. Every single thing I do, I want to get better at.” Confident, but not cocky, knowing that he has to improve but also well-aware that he has the talent to succeed at the highest level of the game someday.

Despite his age and relative inexperience, we could see Lindor on the shores of Lake Erie as early as midway through the 2014 season. With shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera becoming a free agent prior to the 2015 season, that timeline lines up perfectly for the Indians. If Lindor can get his feet wet at the big league level in 2014, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could become an everyday shortstop in The Show as a 21-year old the following season. He’s a potential Gold Glove defender who should more than hold his own with the bat, a potential four-tool player who should be above-average in everything except the power department. That’s an all-star package if he plays up to his potential, and Lindor seems prepared to work as hard as it takes to reach that lofty potential. 

Previewing the MLB Draft: Part Two

Draft Day is finally upon us, Indians fans. It’s time for the team to reap the harvest that was planted the day after the Justin Verlander game last year, when the club started the epic collapse that found them picking 5^th overall in the first round tonight. That collapse and the corresponding top-10 pick did allow the Indians to sign two marquee free agents and “only” lose their sandwich and 2^nd round picks as opposed to their 1^st round pick in this year’s draft, so I suppose we can use tonight as a silver lining for the horror we all endured watching Chief Wahoo’s Tribe tailspin towards the bottom of the American League standings last season.

In case you missed my more in-depth profile of the players that the Indians will be considering with the #5 pick tonight, you can find it here. Today, I’m going to sketch out for you how I think the top 1/3 of the draft is going to go, including the only pick we really care about, the Indians selection at #5. Here’s hoping for another Lindor or Sabathia and not another Beau Mills or Michael Aubrey.

       1. Houston Astros: Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma

The Astros strategy with the #1 pick last year was to draft a talented but signable player and use the savings later in the draft. After his positive test for Adderall, the uber-talented Jonathan Gray might just be that player. He’s a candidate for 1-1 based on his talent alone, and now that the Astros will have some leverage in negotiations, they could snag the draft’s best player at a discount. It’s a perfect world scenario for the hapless Astros and their fans. If Gray makes it known that he won’t sign at below slot for 1-1, look for the Astros to take UNC 3B Colin Moran

    

2. Chicago Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford

The safest pick in the draft, Appel doesn’t repeat last year’s slide down the 1^st round. Appel will be the 1^st player drafted in 2013 to make it to the majors, and could be a mainstay in the Cubbies rotation as soon as next season. Gray might have a slightly higher ceiling, but Appel has a much higher floor and is already close to a finished product. Cubs fans will be too drunk in the bleachers at Wrigley to notice, but Theo Epstein will make this pick with a smile on his face.

       3. Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego

Kris Bryant’s raw power unleashed in Coors Field? Sign me up to watch that show. Providing Bryant can make a couple of minor tweaks to his swing, he could hit 40 HR annually in the thin Denver air as soon as 2015.

      4. Minnesota Twins:  Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X High School (Texas)

This is pretty much the only player I’ve seen them on in mock drafts all spring. Naturally, that means they’ll probably take someone else, but I’m sticking with the concensus on this one. The old Twins probably would have taken Shipley here, but these aren’t your older brother’s Twins anymore. No longer do they prefer “safe” picks like Ohio State’s Alex Wimmer. Pitchability and changeups are relics of years gone by, and the Twins are focusing on radar gun readings and upside. Stewart and his high-90’s fastball fit that bill, so it’s easy to see him heading to the Twin Cities with the #4 pick here.

    

   5. Cleveland Indians: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High School (Georgia)

So here’s the pick we really care about. Scouts are torn on Frazier’s eventual ability to stick in CF. Some see him as a surefire CF down the road, and some see a shift to an outfield corner. His proponents see a classic gym rat; a guy who plays all-out, 100% on every play, who has enormous tools and will always get the most out of his talent. His detractors see a tweener, a guy who’s undersized for the rigors of a big league season and an eventual LF. Put me in the pro-Frazier camp. I see the next Grady Sizemore, hopefully this time without all of the injuries. He has the best bat speed in the draft, and that’s a talent that simply can’t be taught. He’s a tireless worker, a plus runner and has a plus arm. Even if he does have to shift to RF, he has the potential to be an impact player in the middle of a major league batting order. He’s not the “safe” pick here and he won’t be able to help the Indians in the near future, but Frazier has the highest superstar potential of anyone on my hypothetical board here at #5 overall. If Frazier is on the board and Gray/Appel/Bryant are all gone, I hope the Indians pull the trigger on the young Georgia outfielder.

If the top 4 picks shake out like I’ve predicted here, the Indians will also be considering Shipley and Moran in addition to Frazier.

       6. Miami Marlins-Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

Moran is an advance bat who will stick at 3B as a professional. Whether or not the skinflint Marlins want to pay enough to sign him is another story, but he’s the best player available in our scenario, so I’ve got him going to South Beach. But now that Jeffrey Loria has his taxpayer funded (empty) stadium, he’ll probably have his baseball people under a strict budget, and they might be the first team in history to pass on a 1^st round pick entirely because of the cost.

       7. Boston Red Sox-Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson High School (Georgia)

Meadows is a crosstown rival of Clint Frazier, and has a pretty high upside in his own right. He’s a potential monster in the middle of a lineup, and has the size and strength to hit 40 HR in The Show someday. Like Frazier, he’s still very raw and won’t be gracing Fenway Park anytime soon, but is a potential all-star if he does refine his approach and work his way up the ladder to the major leagues.

  

   8. Kansas City Royals-Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada

Royals fans would have to be thrilled with this scenario, as one of the top-3 college arms in the draft falls to them at #8 overall. Shipley is a converted SS, an excellent athlete who still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher. He’s already an impressive arm, working in consistently in the mid-90’s with his fastball and complimenting it with one of the best changeups in the draft. He has only scraped the surface of his talent on the mound, and could end up as a solid #2 starter when all is said and done. Kansas City needs pitching in the worst way, and Shipley would be both BPA and fill a need at #8 overall.

   9. Pittsburgh Pirates-Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood High School (Washington)

I’ve seen the Pirates on McGuire pretty much exclusively this spring. He’s an incredible catch and throw guy behind the plate, a guy who is getting an 80 grade with his arm as a high schooler. That’s nearly unheard of, and the fact that he’s popping sub-1.90 to 2^nd is incredible. He’s not nearly as advanced as a hitter, but the Pirates are hoping that will progress at the plate with more experience. This is an unprotected pick that the Pirates received when they were unable to sign Mark Appel last year, so they absolutely have to sign whoever they choose here. McGuire is both talented and signable, and that fits the bill for the Buccos here at #9.

      10. Toronto Blue Jays-Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle High School (Indiana)

Ball is the top player in the entire Midwest this year, a 6’6”  lefty who throws a fastball in the mid-90’s. He’s a great athlete and was a two-way star in high school, to the point where some teams are considering Ball as an outfielder. That kind of velocity from a lefty tends to stick on the mound though, and he’s a very Toronto type of player so I see them taking him as a pitcher here at #10. There are some mechanical inconsistencies in his delivery that need to get cleaned up, but the athletic Ball should be able to make those corrections under the tutelage of a professional pitching coach.

So that’s how I see the top 10 going tonight. I think the Indians will end up with Frazier, Moran or Shipley, and I’ll be pretty happy with any of those three. I think Frazier has the highest upside of those three, but he also has the most risk. Chris Antonetti and company are looking for the best player available in the first round, and they’re going to have to select an impact talent because the Indians won’t be picking again until the #79 slot (the 5^th pick in the 3^rd round). 

Previewing the MLB Draft: Part One

Well Tribe fans, it’s that time of year again. The MLB Rule 4 Draft is set to take place this Thursday evening, and your Cleveland Indians hold the 5th pick in the first round. Because of MLB’s asinine rules artificially tying draft picks to free agents, the Indians will not pick again until #79 overall, having forfeited their “competitive balance” sandwich pick as well as their 2nd round pick with the signings of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. But you didn’t come here for (another) rant on the Collective Bargaining Agreement; you came here to learn about the player the Indians could potentially end up with at #5 overall in the draft.

Much like the past two seasons, this will be part one of a two-part draft miniseries. Today, we’ll take a look at some of the options that the Indians will consider with their pick. Tomorrow, I’ll put up my mock draft of the first 10 picks in the draft. Because let’s be honest, very few of us care who Oakland selects with pick #24 in the first round, right? So without further delay, here are 11 players that the Indians might be thinking about with their first pick in the draft come Thursday night.

Mark Appel, RHP-Stanford 
Appel was a lot of peoples’ pick to go #1 overall in last year’s draft to the Astros. He was a consensus top-5 guy in last year’s class, but due to his agent (Scott Boras) and expected bonus demands, he slid to Pittsburgh at #8 overall. The Pirates took a pretty good run at signing him, offering him an over-slot bonus of $3.8 million, but ultimately couldn’t pay him enough to play in the Steel City. So here we are again with Appel a heavy favorite for the top pick, and the Houston Astros weighing the merits of drafting (and paying) him.

Appel has top of the rotation potential. He’s a big kid at 6’5” 215lbs, and leverages that frame to generate a fastball that sits comfortably between 93-97 and touches 99. He commands the pitch well, and generates good plane making the pitch especially difficult to handle down in the zone. He complements the heater with two plus secondary offerings in his slider and changeup. Both have a future-70 grade on them, and both can flash at that level already. The slider sits between 85-87 with impressive life and tilt, while the changeup is a very deceptive pitch that just fades down and away from righthanders.

He has a very smooth, clean, easily repeatable delivery that helps with his command and allows him to go deep into games. Combining that impressive arsenal with his size and strength, and you can see why Appel is considered to be the top talent in this year’s draft. The wildcard is his agent and bonus demands, much as they were back in 2012. If a team drafts Appel and doesn’t sign him, he’d have to go pitch in the independent leagues as he has no further college eligibility. That would seem to put the leverage on the side of the team selecting him. But if a team drafts a player in the top-10 rounds and he doesn’t sign, the team loses the bonus pool associated with that pick. So that gives Appel a little leverage after all. If it were any other team besides Houston selecting #1 overall, I’d say he was a sure thing to go 1-1.

Jonathan Gray, RHP-Oklahoma 
Like Appel, Gray is a big, strong RHP who makes his living off of his impressive fastball. The 6’4” 240lbs Sooner can touch triple digits on the radar gun, and was sitting comfortably between 94-97 MPH this spring. He compliments the fastball with a slider that already grades as a plus pitch, and should round out to a plus-plus offering. It looks almost exactly like his fastball coming out of his hand, showcasing very impressive late action and tilt. The best professional comp I can think of for the pitch is Randy Johnson; not saying Gray is at the Big Unit’s level yet of course, but the fastball/slider combo is similar to what has Johnson headed to the hall of fame. Gray was able to buzzsaw through most collegiate lineups with just his fastball/slider combo, so his changeup lags behind those two offerings. The change has good potential, but his command of the pitch isn’t where it needs to be to succeed as a professional. Repetitions and experience will help make the pitch more consistent, and there’s no reason why it couldn’t mature into a potential out pitch for Gray.

Gray’s delivery is smooth and consistent, but he does land a bit stiff on his front leg from time to time. It’s not a major red flag, but when he does it his control suffers, so it’s something to keep an eye on. He’s a good athlete and experience with a professional pitching coach should be able to handle the issue with little difficulty. He does a great job maintaining his stuff deep into games, and the coaching staff at Oklahoma has done a fine job protecting his talented right arm by limiting his pitch counts.

Gray threw a bit of a wrench in this process when he tested positive for a banned substance (Adderall) prior to the draft. Some think that means he will fall out of the top-3, and some think that now Houston is more likely to take Gray because the positive test means they can secure his immense talent at a discount at 1-1. His overall ceiling might even be higher than Appel’s, but he’s also less of a sure thing. He’s one of the top 3 talents in the draft, and could go anywhere from #1 overall to #6 as an absolute floor. I don’t see him getting past the Indians if he’s on the board at #5 though.

Trey Ball, LHP-New Castle High School (Indiana) 
The top prep player in the state of Indiana, Ball is one of the best lefthanded pitchers available in the draft. The tall, lanky southpaw can run his plus fastball up to 97 MPH, and sits comfortably in the low to mid 90’s. The fastball comes at hitters on a steep downward plane, and they tend to beat it into the ground when they do make contact. It’s a two-seamer with nice arm-side run, and has the potential to be a plus-plus pitch at the major league level. He compliments the fastball with a curveball that’s raw but promising and a changeup that flashes plus. Both secondary pitches are inconsistent at this stage of Ball’s development, but he has the potential to have three pitches that grade at plus or better.

Ball is a very good athlete, and some teams are even looking at him as a hitter in this draft. I don’t see that happening, as 6’6” lefties who throw in the high-90’s have a tendency to stick on the mound. His delivery is repeatable but has a little bit of herky-jerkyness to it, which helps him hide the ball well and create deception for the hitter. He weighs in at right around 180lbs, and there’s plenty of room on his frame to add strength and have his fastball velocity tick up another notch or two. His long arms and legs keep him slow to the plate, and he hasn’t shown off much of a slide step. He still needs to shore up his command and work on his consistency, but it’s an enticing package that’s likely to come off the board in the first 10 picks of the draft this year.

Kohl Stewart, RHP-St. Pius X High School (Texas) 
Stewart is from a football-rich area of Texas, and has a full scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M. A&M will have a decent QB under center for the next two years though, so Stewart might want to consider giving this pitching thing a try. The 6’3”, 190lbs righty sits between 92-94 with his fastball, and touches 97. The pitch has nice arm-side run, and is especially tough on righties. He has an impressive slider, and is developing both a curveball and changeup. The fastball and slider could be plus-plus pitches at the professional level, and both the curve and change should be at least average.

Stewart has some issues with his delivery that affect his command, but nothing serious that can’t be fixed with additional experience and a professional pitching coach. He’s an excellent athlete and should be able to make adjustments as needed. He’s not a finished product by any means, and there’s a lot of risk involved in an arm as raw as Stewart’s. But there’s also a lot of upside in there, as much as any pitcher in the draft. Someone is going to pull the trigger on Stewart in the top half of the draft in the hopes that his immense potential can someday headline the top of a major league rotation.

Ryne Stanek, RHP-Arkansas
Stanek is a 6’4”, 180lbs righty who was seen as a potential top-3 pick going into this season. He was coming off of a solid summer with Team USA, and the 20-year old was seen as one of the top starters in the collegiate ranks. He had a solid but not dominant 2013 season with the Razorbacks, and while he’s not seen as a top-3 pick anymore, he should go comfortably in the top-10.

Stanek’s fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range, and has nice arm-side run from his ¾ arm slot. He compliments the fastball with a slider, curve and changeup. The slider is a very horizontal pitch, running hard across the strike zone. It’s his best secondary offering, and one of the better sliders in the draft. His curveball is a hard, tight breaker that could develop into an above-average pitch. His changeup shows potential, but needs to be a more consistent pitch in order to be a reliable offering at the professional level. It’s a starter’s arsenal, and the four-pitch mix helps Stanek keep hitters off balance.

Stanek has a high leg kick and lands somewhat stiff on his front leg because he extends so much so early in his delivery. He has raised his arm slot a little since high school, from below ¾ to a more traditional ¾ slot, and it’s helped make his slider a more effective pitch. His command and control weren’t where they needed to be this spring, and it’s something that’s going to have to improve at the professional level. Still, his stuff is impressive, and should have him coming off the board in the top 10 picks this week.

Kris Bryant, 3B-San Diego
Most evaluators feel that Bryant is the top bat in this year’s draft, and it’s easy to see why. Bryant has passed the 30 HR mark for this season, a total that dwarfs many team totals in college baseball this year. The plus-plus raw power is (as you’d expect) his best tool, as it’s a current 70 and should play at a 70-75 level by the time he reaches the upper levels of the minor leagues. His swing is long but simple, as he hits from a wide base with virtually no stride. He basically just uses a toe-tap for timing purposes, then unleashes his hands through the hitting zone. He has plus power to all fields, driving the ball the other way better than you’d expect for a power guy.

As you’d expect from a power guy, Bryant’s hit tool suffers due to his max effort approach. He can hit a fastball a mile, but struggles a little with advanced offspeed stuff. His swing, while simple, is still long, and there’s some swing and miss in him. But if he hits .250 with 100+ K and 35-40 HR in the middle of a major league batting order, the team that drafts him is still going to be quite happy with their selection.

Bryant is an average college third baseman, and many scouts see a move off the position in his future. He’s an average runner with a plus arm, so right field seems like the logical eventual destination. But if the 6’5” 215lbs Bryant fills out much more, he’s going to be limited to 1B in the pros. That move would lower his overall ceiling, but as of now that is a worst-case scenario for Bryant. There’s a small chance he can stick at the hot corner, but his lack of range at 3B will likely see him shift to RF.

At the start of my evaluation process, I was really hoping that Bryant would fall to the Indians at #5 overall. I don’t think he’ll get there, as his massive power projection just doesn’t come around every draft and one of the top four teams (likely Colorado) will snap him up. But I’ve also cooled on him as I’ve watched video and read more in-depth scouting reports, as there’s a chance that his bat speed and swing won’t be as effective against major league pitching. I am pretty sure the Indians would take him at #5 overall if he’s there, but I’m no longer 100% sure I’d want them to.

Colin Moran, 3B-UNC 
Moran is one of the more well-rounded players in the draft, and has long been rumored as a target for the Indians at #5 overall. In 248 at bats this year, the UNC product has walked 57 times while striking out just 21. He’s hitting .351/.478/.560 for the Tar Heels, with 13 HR and 85 RBI (both team-high totals). He has an advanced approach at the plate, doing a nice job with pitch recognition/selection. He has plus power and plus hitting ability, and has done it against some of the best competition that collegiate baseball has to offer.

Moran’s swing is the polar opposite of Bryant; he uses a narrow set up and a long stride to the baseball, which makes it a little more difficult to keep his weight back. He utilizes strong hip rotation to generate his power, but the swing has a lot of moving parts and is not as consistent as you’d like to see. His swing path can vary, as his hands don’t load from a consistent spot or level. Still, Moran makes it work, and he has the raw talent so that if a professional hitting coach wants to try and make a couple of minor tweaks, Moran should be able to make the necessary adjustments.

Defensively, Moran is better than Bryant at 3B but is not seen as a potential Gold Glover at the hot corner. He should be able to stay at 3B in the pros, but a move to 1B isn’t out of the question. He’s a below-average runner, so a move to the OF is unlikely. A month ago, I thought B.J. Surhoff’s nephew would be a likely candidate for the Indians at #5 overall. But there’s a rumor going around from some pretty good sources (none of them mine, of course) that the Astros are considering taking Moran at 1-1 and offering him slot for the #4 pick to save money for the later rounds. If that happens, it could push one of the “Big Three” (Appel, Gray and Bryant) closer to the Indians at #5. The Astros did something similar in 2012, selecting Carlos Correa at 1-1 in order to get both a talented player and cost savings for later in the draft. Could it happen in 2013 as well? We’ll see very soon, but if it does then Moran could go first overall in the 2013 draft.

Braden Shipley, RHP-Nevada 
Shipley is one of the top collegiate arms in this class, but is considered a tier below the top two of Appel and Gray. A converted shortstop, Shipley is actually fairly new to pitching. He became a full-time pitcher in 2012, so he probably has more room to grow than either Appel or Gray. Shipley’s fastball sits comfortably in the 92-95 MPH range, and has touched 99. He compliments the heat with a plus changeup, a pitch that usually requires a lot more experience on the mound to master. The pitch has excellent late fade away from righthanded hitters, and can be used to attack hitters on either side of the plate. His third pitch is a curveball that grades out as average, but should be able to improve with additional repetitions.

As you’d expect from a converted SS, Shipley is an athletic player who fields his position well. His athleticism helps him consistently repeat his delivery, and he has no major mechanical flaws. He can get a little out over himself at times due to his arm speed, but it’s not considered to be a major issue. As I said, Shipley is considered to be a little behind Appel and Gray at this stage of their respective careers. But he does have more room to grow than either of those experienced arms, and the Indians do love their shortstops-turned-pitchers (see Josh Tomlin and Austin Adams). He’ll need a little more work to polish off his tools on the mound, but could mature into a solid #2 starter down the road. I haven’t heard any of the top four teams on Shipley, but he’ll likely at least be in consideration for the Indians at #5 overall.

Clint Fraizer, OF-Loganville High School (Georgia) 
Fraizer is one of the top prep bats in this year’s draft class, possessing both plus raw power and raw hitting ability. Fraizer generates a ton of bat speed from his strong wrists and quick hands, leading to some incredible tape-measure HR in high school. His swing has some natural loft, which only helps to generate backspin and power. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that could leave him susceptible to advanced offspeed stuff, but destroys fastballs and should improve his pitch recognition/selection as he matures.

Defensively, Fraizer is a CF in high school but could end up shifting to RF as a professional. He’s an average to above-average runner with good instincts and a plus arm. He could be an average defender in CF or a plus defensive OF if he has to shift to right. There’s a little concern over his arm due to a bout with tendonitis, but he’s expected to make a full recovery and regain full velocity. His style of play would remind Indians fans of Grady Sizemore; all-out, 100% effort on every play. Scouts rave about his intangibles, and he’s a guy who leads by example every day that he’s on a baseball field.

The one drawback on Fraizer is his size. I’ve seen his height listed anywhere from 5’11” to 6’1”, but most who’ve seen him are pretty sure he’s shy of 6 feet. He’s a compact 190lbs, and while he’s a good athlete for his size, that frame doesn’t leave a lot of projection. Scouts and front office types usually take high school kids with the expectation that they will continue to grow and fill out, but that doesn’t seem like it will be the case with Fraizer.

Indians GM Chris Antonetti fueled speculation that the Indians are high on Fraizer when he flew down to Georgia to personally meet with the youngster at the end of May. He offers a tantalizing package of tools for a franchise that has been unable to draft and groom a home-grown OF talent since…what, Brian Giles? Fraizer is expected to be on the board at #5, but I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota snatching him up at #4 overall. If he’s there, he’ll be an enticing option for an Indians organization that remains light on potential impact OF.

Austin Meadows, OF-Grayson HS (Georgia) 
Meadows is a high-ceiling athlete who is still fairly raw as a baseball player, but offers an alluring package of tools and athleticism that scouting directors can dream on. He’s a two-sport athlete who is committed to Clemson, and could probably play baseball or football at the collegiate level. He currently stands a solid 6’3” 200lbs, but his big, athletic frame will allow him to add another 20-40lbs once he fills out. He is a centerfielder now, but will likely end up in an OF corner once he adds all of that weight.

Meadows features a short, simple swing from the left side of the plate and has above-average pull power. As he progresses and gets bigger, scouts expect that pull power to turn into plus power from CF-RF. He hits out of a wide base with an almost imperceptible stride, keeping his swing path short and to the baseball. The swing doesn’t generate a lot of loft though, which could limit his eventual power ceiling. He’s struggled with wood in limited exposure, but his mechanically sound swing has most talent evaluators confident of an above-average hit tool down the road.

One concern about Meadows is his fringe-average arm, which would likely limit him to LF defensively if he has to move off of CF. His scouting reports have me picturing a more muscular version of Michael Brantley. A nice player, no doubt, but not a guy you’d take at #5 overall in the draft. It’s up to the Indians (and everyone else) to decide if Meadows size and strength can generate some additional power with minor swing tweaks, or if his power projection falls to the “it is what it is” category. The difference between a 30/30 player in LF and a 10/30 player in LF is massive, and players like Meadows have a tendency to get scouting directors either promoted or fired. With the power projection as an unknown, I’d prefer the Indians stay away from him in the 1st round of this year’s draft.

Hunter Renfroe, OF-Mississippi State
Hunter Renfroe was born to play right field. He has prodigious power, a cannon for an arm, and above average speed. He also has a tendency to swing and miss a lot, but he’s improved enough on the strikeouts from his sophomore to junior year to convince scouts that the power will play at the next level. Renfroe hit just .252/.328/.374 with 51 K his sophomore year, but broke out to the tune of a .352/.440/.634 line with 15 HR, 58 RBI and just 39 strikeouts as a junior. His pitch selection improved greatly, walking 34 times after drawing 21 walks as a sophomore. His stock rose appropriately, from a fringe 1st rounder to a potential top-10 pick.

Renfroe will always have a better power tool than hit tool. He handles fastballs well, but struggles with quality breaking balls. He hits out of a wide open setup, and sometimes struggles to get closed in time to handle pitches on the outer half of the plate. It’s a small mechanical flaw that can likely be addressed by a professional hitting coach. He’s going to strike out at the professional level, but he’s also going to hit a lot of home runs, and those tend to balance out the ledger.

Renfroe will be limited to RF as a pro, but he’s going to be an above-average RF. He has above-average speed, takes good routes to the ball, and is a good athlete. He also has a plus arm which will be a weapon in RF. Renfroe will almost certainly be on the board for the Indians at #5, but that’s probably a little too high to pull the trigger on the slugging OF.

Looking at the Rotation on a Lazy Sunday

After a roller-coaster start to the 2013 season, the Indians enter this Lazy Sunday with a very appropriate record of 5 wins and 5 losses. It could be better, but it could also be worse. The new outfield has come as advertised, with Brantley, Bourn and Stubbs running down flyballs all over the outfield. Mark Reynolds has hit some titanic shots, and struck out a few times as well. Nick Swisher’s excitement and leadership has been infectious, and his walk-off single on Friday helped secure Masterson a victory in a lights-out pitching performance. And the starting rotation, which came in to the season with question marks, has also both lived up to and pitched down to preseason expectations. The Indians have already used six starting pitchers this year, and only back-to-back rain delays prevented them from using a seventh. The performance of those six starters has ranged from great (Masterson) to terrible (Brett Myers), and one has been Carlos Carrasco, whose outing against the Yankees must be considered in a classification all of its own. As Anthony Castrovice summed up expertly earlier this week, the Indians start has been nothing if not interesting. It’s still awfully early, but we can take the information we have to make some judgments about the starting rotation based on our expectations going into the 2013 season. So with that, let’s set off on a pitching-centric Lazy Sunday here in early April…

So far in 2013, we’ve seen the return of the Justin Credible version of Masterson, as the Indians ace is reminding Tribe fans of his fantastic 2011 season. With Friday’s complete-game shutout victory over the White Sox, Masteron moved to 3-0 this year. He’s allowed just a single earned run in 22 IP while striking out 20 and walking 8. If you want to pick nits, the 8 walks are a couple more than we would prefer to see, but with Masterson allowing just 10 hits his WHIP is still a paltry 0.818. Per Elias, Masterson is one of two Indians pitchers to ever win his first three starts of the season while allowing one run or less. The other pitcher was Luis Tiant, who accomplished the feat when he opened the 1966 campaign with three straight shutouts. Masterson’s ERA+ currently stands at a league-leading 1074. That is probably an unsustainable number, but it helps to illustrate just how much better Masterson has been in comparison to the rest of the American League. His velocity is already in the mid to high 90’s, a level that it did not reach until May of 2013. His sinker is sinking, and he’s commanding the slider well to both sides of the plate when he’s needed it. His GO/AO ratio is an outstanding 2.15, which is high even for Masterson. The noted groundball artist isn’t going to benefit from the improved OF defense as much as some of the other members of the staff, but having the firm of Brantley, Bourn and Stubbs patrolling the grass certainly isn’t going to hurt him, either. One of the big “ifs” coming into this season was the question of whether or not Masterson could re-establish himself as legit front of the rotation arm. It’s still awfully early, but so far the returns on that question are extremely encouraging.

The excitement of the home opener was dampened in a big way by the incredibly disappointing performance of starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Coming off of a 3-3 roadtrip against what will likely be the 1^st and 2^nd place teams in the AL East this year, the new-look Indians were returning home against the hated Yankees, a team that stumbled their way to a high-priced 2-4 start. These are not the powerhouse Yankees of years past, as injuries and age are finally catching up with the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees came into Cleveland starting Travis Hafner as their cleanup hitter, Vernon Wells in the 5-hole, Eduardo Nunez at SS, Lyle Overbay at 1B and Chris Stewart behind the plate. A far cry from the A-Rod, Jeter, Texieria and Posada of old. There was blood in the water, and we all expected that this was the series that the Indians could pound the despised pinstripes from NY. Alas, it was not to be. Hafner helped the Yankees jump out to an early lead with a 3-run HR in the top of the 1^st (wow, that sentence felt weird to type), and while the Indians struck with three in the bottom of the first to equalize, Ubaldo just couldn’t get outs. He allowed 7 ER on 7 hits in 4 1/3 innings, and even compared to his disastrous 2012 he didn’t have very good stuff. Ubaldo’s fastball sat in the high-80’s during the opener, a far, far cry from the high-90’s heat he featured as an ace in Colorado. The Indians, via PD reporter Paul Hoynes, explained that the radar gun responsible for the PITCHf/x data was faulty, resulting in the slow readings displayed on the stadium radar gun. Wait, what??

Forgetting for a moment that Ubaldo’s decline in velocity has been a concern since even before the Indians acquired him from the Rockies, this explanation just doesn’t pass the smell test. And neither does it hold up to closer inspection; the other pitchers in the game did not show a similar decline in velocity from their previous appearances this season. My TCF colleague Adam Burke doesn’t buy it, and helped to pull together some links on the issue. Kyle Boddy of the Hardball Times was gracious enough to do all of the necessary research for us, so I’ll just steer you to this link for the full explanation. It doesn’t seem as though the other pitchers in the game were affected by the slow radar gun that plagued Ubaldo. Was the gun really off? Who knows. I don’t understand why the Indians would say so if it were not, and I certainly don’t know who within the organization actually provided Hoynes with that info. It could have been a well-meaning lower-level source within the org who was trying to get Ubaldo to relax, trust in himself and quit trying to throw the ball through a brick wall at the expense of pitch location. But what I do know is that there’s something wrong with Ubaldo Jimenez. There’s something wrong with his arm, with his mechanics, and likely between his ears as well. And despite the multitude of opinions on what’s happening with his mechanics and what to do to fix them, a long-term solution has yet to present itself. There may be a few more starts this year where Ubaldo finds some measure of success, similar to the one in Toronto in the season’s opening series. But unless something dramatic happens, I don’t see him sticking in the Indians rotation for all of of 2013.

Of all of the free agent additions this offseason, only one looked to improve the starting rotation. The Indians gave the 32-year old Brett Myers a $7 million contract to stabilize the middle of the Indians rotation, hoping he’d return to his innings-eating form of 2011/2010 when he posted a combined 3.79 ERA in 439 2/3 innings for the Houston Astros. Myers has made two appearances (one start) this year, and has given up 14 earned runs in just 10 1/3 IP. He’s allowed 7 HR in that timeframe, which would be high even if he were the Indians batting practice pitcher. By any measure, Myers has been downright awful here in 2013. But I’m actually a lot less worried about him than I am some of the other members of the Cleveland rotation. Myers is a proven commodity at this point in his career, a guy who hasn’t posted an ERA over 4.84 since 2004. He doesn’t have to go out and contend for the Cy Young award this year, he just has to go out and give the Indians 5+ innings and turn the ball over to the bullpen with the Indians offense still in the game. I still think Myers can do that, and believe he has earned the benefit of the doubt as a veteran pitcher who has been getting the job done despite a decline in his stuff from early in his career. If he still has a 12.19 ERA in May, I’ll be concerned. But I’m willing to give him a grace period in his return to the rotation, and think that other Indians fans should feel the same. There are plenty of other issues with the starting rotation to keep us busy while we give Myers a bit of a grace period to settle down in his new/old role as a starting pitcher.

To paraphrase former Arizona Cardinals head coach Denny Green, Trevor Bauer is what we thought he is so far here in 2013. Bauer is immensely talented, throws several above-average to plus pitches, and both walks and strikes out a lot of hitters. He’s made one start in Cleveland and one in Columbus, going a combined 1-1 while allowing 4 ER on 6 hits in 11 innings pitched, striking out 11 and walking 10.  That’s more or less what we expected out of the 22-year old righty when the Indians acquired him this offseason, although I was of course hoping for fewer walks. Bauer is the most talented pitcher in the Indians organization, and that includes Justin Masterson. If the Indians are going to make a playoff run in 2013, Bauer is going to have to play a major role for the big club at some point this season. And for that to happen, he’s going to have to improve his command and control to a point where he’s walking fewer than four hitters per 9 IP. His ability to miss bats and record strikeouts means that he’ll be able to survive with a higher walk rate than most, but more than one free pass per inning just isn’t sustainable. I’ve written about this in the past, but Bauer needs to trust his stuff and throw strikes rather than trying to make the perfect pitch in every situation. As the great Crash Davis once said, “Quit trying to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring, and besides that they’re fascist. Throw some more groundballs…they’re more democratic.” Bauer is young enough that he could use some time to develop in the minors, but the Indians don’t necessarily have the same luxury. Their starting pitching is in a state where they need Bauer in order to contend for the World Series, whether that happens in 2013 or in the future. Regardless of when it happens, I fully expect Bauer to be in the rotation to stay ay some point this year, likely at the expense of Ubaldo Jimenez.

And then we have Carlos Carrasco. I had (have) high expectations for Carrasco this year. He’s the 2^nd or 3^rd most talented pitcher in the Indians organization right now. He has the stuff to be a #2 starter in a major league rotation, something the Indians desperately need.  He pitched well in stretches in 2011 before going down in September with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. He was showing glimpses of his potential in his return to the rotation last week, sitting consistently in the mid to high-90s with his fastball and flashing an above-average slider. He was struggling to locate his pitches, and had given up 7 ER in 3 2/3’s of an inning before drilling Kevin Youkilis with a pitch which resulted in Carrasco being ejected from the contest. I’m much, much less worried about the lack of command than the HBP. It was Carrasco’s first major league appearance since undergoing the surgery; it’s well known that both fastball command and consistent secondary pitches take some time to re-emerge after TJ. My main concern is that very little about Carrasco has changed since his days as a prospect in the Phillies organization. Allow me to cut and paste from the great Kevin Goldstein’s Phillies top-11 prospect list following the the 2008 season:

The Good: Carrasco is the total package, combining a power frame with three above-average pitches and plus command. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph, but his best pitch is an outstanding changeup with plenty of late life. He also has a nice curveball that he can throw for strikes or use as a chase pitch.

The Bad: Carrasco doesn't have a real out pitch in his arsenal, as none of his offerings are plus-plus. He's had a career-long habit of turning bad innings into horrible ones; in clutch situations he tends to shy away from contact and falls behind in the count. (bold my emphasis)

When you go back and read Carrasco’s scouting reports in the minor leagues, they’re full of comments like this. All rave about his talent on the mound, but nearly all also caveat that by commenting on his struggles with the mental side of the game. He’s always been a guy who’ll let an inning get away from him to the point where he takes himself out of the game, sometimes literally. Even as he was delivering the pitch that hit Youkilis, he looked like he wanted to be anywhere other than on the center of the diamond at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Physical flaws in a pitcher are difficult enough to correct (just ask Ubaldo Jimenez). But changing muscle memory, while difficult, is possible and has been done in the past with many a pitcher to career-changing results. Mental flaws are much more difficult to conquer. I’m not going to pretend to know anything at all about psychology or other such things, but I’ve played the game and know how difficult it is to change ones nature. Coaches, teammates, psychologists and family members can talk to Carrasco all they want and try to get him to calm down and be more mentally tough. But to fundamentally change the way you think about a game you’ve been playing since you were a kid is not something that just happens. Off the field, Carrasco is a soft-spoken, nice guy. I watched him spend nearly an hour of his time with a church youth group in the Goodyear complex this spring, signing autographs and talking with the kids. But when he steps between the lines, something happens that causes him to lose focus and his composure. Are we to the point where Carrasco simply is what he is? At age 26, I certainly hope not, but the possibility exists. Carrasco was optioned down to AAA Columbus after his disastrous outing against the Yankees, and it will be interesting to see when we see him in Cleveland again. He maintains that the pitch that hit Youkilis was an accident; I and most fans don’t see it that way. He has the talent to be the Indians #2 starter as soon as this year, but it remains to be seen whether he can advance his mental game to the point where that talent plays consistently on the field.

Like most of you, I have a strong dislike for the New York Yankees. Always have, probably always will. I didn’t like them when I was a kid, and that dislike grew in my formative years when the Indians were constantly battling the pinstripes for AL supremacy. I don’t like their players, their ownership, their stadium and especially their obnoxious fanbase. But what Mariano Rivera is doing this season is pure class. Rivera has announced that this will be his final season in the major leagues, and with the Yankees making just one scheduled trip to Cleveland this year he wanted to meet with some of the behind the scenes people in the Indians organization to say thanks. Anthony Castrovice details the visit in an outstanding article, telling of how Rivera asked to meet John Adams, and discussed the famous 1997 HR that Sandy Alomar hit off of him in Jacobs Field during the playoffs. Rivera holds that home run as one of the most important moments of his career, saying that “If that wouldn’t have happened, God only knows where I would have ended up. But because that happened, it pushed me to be better in moments like that and in situations like that.” I’m sure the rest of the league would prefer that Alomar’s home run didn’t unleash the full fury of Rivera’s dominance in 9^th innings throughout his career, but it sure worked out well for the Yankees. Despite my dislike for the Yankees as a franchise, it’s impossible not to acknowledge what Rivera is doing in his farewell tour around baseball.

If you’re looking for a minor league fix, I’m back to doing my daily “Around the Farm” recap of the Indians system on The Cleveland Fan. I’ll have more detailed articles on individual players as the season goes on, but hopefully you’re finding the ATF’s are a good way to keep tabs on the day to day goings on within the system. That being said, I do want to highlight the performances of a couple of players here for you today. The Indians 2011 1^st round pick and consensus top-10 prospect in all of baseball, Carolina Mudcats SS Francisco Lindor has started off the season on fire. After Friday night’s game, Lindor has hit in all seven games this season, going 12-28 with two triples, a double and five stolen bases. He’s hitting .429/.484/.607 while playing outstanding defense at SS, and is living up to the lofty expectations that Indians fans have for the 19-year old shortstop. Not to be outdone, his teammate in Carolina and fellow 1^st round draft pick Tyler Naquin has hit in 5 of 7, going 11-30 with a HR, 3B, 2 2B and 6 RBI from the leadoff spot in the Mudcats lineup. It’s early in the season and all of the standard small sample size caveats apply, but it’s great to see these two get off to such a hot start. The Indians remain loaded with up the middle talent throughout the organization, and the continued development of these two players is going to be key to a future window of contention for this Indians franchise.

Finally, from the credit where credit is due department; MLB has made some improvements to their MLB TV ap, making it an even better product than it was last season. Living out of the Cleveland viewing area as I do, MLB Extra Innings or MLB TV is a necessity. I used to get MLB Extra Innings through cable, but found that to be sorely lacking. For $200 a season, I got to watch standard definition games with other teams announcers. Listening to Hawk Harrleson is bad enough, but listening to him without even the luxury of HD video? And for $200?? Not much of a deal if you ask me. Fortunately, MLB TV is available on your computer, tablet, Xbox, Playstation etc. MLB TV is always in HD, gives you choices of which announcers to listen to, and costs “just” $130. It also includes the MLB At Bat ap for your phone, which means the ability to listen to Tom Hamilton anytime, anywhere. That alone is nearly worth the price. During the games, MLB TV displays pitch FX data in real time, showing us exactly where pitches did (or did not) cross the strike zone and at what speed, break etc. It also provides real-time access to highlights around the league, something that’s particularly useful the day after the west coast games that end well after I go to bed. In fact, it makes watching baseball highlights on the four-letter network obsolete and unnecessary, as all of the webgems, home runs and everything in between are available on-demand at your fingertips. I’m not a paid endorser of MLB TV or anything, but I really am happy with the product they’re putting out this season. Compared to the NFL, who seems bound and determined to restrict access to their product as much as possible, it’s refreshing to have options to follow your favorite team from out of town. Now if only they could fix that Fox exclusive window at 4pm on Saturdays…

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A Lazy Sunday with the Season in Full Swing

Few things have pleased me as much over the last 6 months as seeing the way that this site has continued on since I’ve left here as Al has brought his expertise and writing talent into the fray to grow this site since he’s assumed stewardship of the site.  But sometimes (actually oftentimes) things come up that take precedence over a simple post on a Sunday and I’ve been called out of the bullpen…think of it as a LOOGY situation.  With Al occupied this weekend (with a wedding…his own!), I’ve decided to come off of the shuffleboard courts here at Del Boca Vista and drop a (very quick) Lazy One down because…you know, games are actually underway.  And while very little can be gleaned from a couple of days worth of games, there have been positive signs (Ubaldo, with a FANTASTIC piece delving into his recent issues here) and some negative ones.  Certainly the same concerns that existed at the start of the season – namely the Starting Pitching (and here is another great piece on the Rays’ continued development of Starting Pitching that stands in stark contrast to the Tribe’s recent past and their current rotation, where it is unlikely that a player drafted and/or developed by the Tribe will start a game for the Erie Warriors this year) – persist, but nobody’s running away and hiding with the AL Central…and certainly not the Tribe.

That all said, a couple of weeks ago, my friend Vince Grzegorek (correct spelling…ahem, Esquire) at Scene Magazine asked me to pen one of my “season previews” for him to include in this weekend’s edition, right next to Vince’s terrific Q & A with Chris Perez.  So, without further ado, I’ll direct your eyes here to it and retreat once again into retirement so I can take a look at the Early Bird menu and figure out what The DiaBride are going to have for dinner…around 2 PM this “evening”.

With a hearty congrats to Al on his exciting day and with the knowledge that he’ll be back here soon enough, let’s all just enjoy the season and Go Tribe.