A Signing, a Release and the Tao of Mickey on a Lazy Sunday
The World Series is over, and the long-suffering
Boston fans are finally toasting to another championship. The city hadn’t won a
title since way back in 2011, when the Bruins hoisted Lord Stanley’s Cup. To
think, there were 2-year olds in Boston who hadn’t had the chance to witness a
title parade! In all seriousness though, I am happy for Boston winning a title
so soon after the horrifying marathon attacks in April of this year. That
senseless and meaningless act by two loser brothers who immigrated here to
leech off of our benevolent society energized a Boston fanbase that saw the Red
Sox stumble to a last place finish in 2012, and a team with fewer stars than
we’re used to seeing in Beantown made a somewhat unlikely run to the 2013
title. Only one Sox regular had an OPS over .842 and hit the 30 HR threshold (Ortiz)
and their best pitcher (Buchhoz) was hurt for most of the season. I’m not
trying to paint the big-market and big-money Sox as some sort of underdog
story, but to show that they weren’t THAT much better than this year’s Indians.
If the Red Sox could do it in 2013, what’s to stop an improved Indians team
from making a similar run in 2014?
The Indians made two significant personnel moves on
Thursday, resigning
Jason Giambi to a minor league contract with a spring training invite and cutting
ties with beleaguered former closer Chris Perez. The Giambi signing was
pretty predictable, and it will allow him to at the very least fulfill his
roving hitting instructor role in Goodyear next spring. Pauly and I discussed
Giambi pretty extensively a couple of weeks ago, and we both agreed that Giambi
would be back with the 2014 Indians in some capacity. Signing him the day after
the World Series sends a statement about just how important the club feels
Giambi was last year and how important he is moving forward, and I wouldn’t be
surprised at all if he was a coach in the Indians organization somewhere in
2015. But for now, Tito has his MVP back in the dugout, and Giambi will serve
as a pinch hitter extraordinaire with the occasional start at DH against tough
righties. He can thank the versatility of Raburn, Aviles and Swisher for that,
as many clubs don’t have the luxury of carrying a player with Giambi’s current
skill set regardless of his impact in the clubhouse. Giambi won’t take up a
spot on the 40-man roster this offseason, which will allow some additional
roster flexibility come time for Rule 5 cuts.
Giambi will almost certainly begin the season on the
active roster, but might not have enough gas in the tank to play the entire
season. With that being said, there’s a real wild card possibility for Giambi at
some point in 2014; hitting coach or even manager for the Mahoning Valley
Scrappers. Before you start thinking that I’m completely crazy, I put this at maybe
a 2% chance of happening, but wanted to throw it out there. If Giambi realizes
in May/June that he’s just not able to help the ballclub, there’s really no
immediate role for him to transition to at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
Brad Mills and Sandy Alomar aren’t going anywhere in mid-season. Moving Giambi
to the short-season New York-Penn League would allow Giambi to work with young
hitters, something he excels at, and remain in the organization to await a TBD
role in the offseason. Sandy Alomar is likely to receive manager consideration
next offseason, and if he departed to run a ballclub, it would create a natural
slot for Giambi to slide in to. That is, if Giambi isn’t starting somewhere
else as a manager himself. Another option would be minor league hitting
coordinator, a role that would allow him to work with players throughout the
organization while still spending time in BrOhio with Swisher, Kipnis and his
other friends in Cleveland.
That brings us to the unceremonious dumping of Rage
Perez. Again, both Paul and I predicted Perez’s departure, but the manner of
his dismissal from the team caught me by surprise. The non-tender deadline is
December 2, just shy of a month away from today. The Indians could have held
onto Perez’s rights until then, hoping a closer-hungry team would come along
and offer them something, anything, for the right to offer Rage salary
arbitration (and pay him upwards of $9 million in 2014). The Tigers, Rays, Mets
and others lack a proven Closer©, and the Indians could have used the month of
November to dangle Perez on the trade block in the hopes of recouping a player
or two in exchange for the mercurial righthander. Instead, they cut ties with
him about 12 hours after the Red Sox popped their first champagne corks,
sending a clear message that Perez was more trouble than he was worth this
season, and they’re ready to move on.
On the field, Perez had an up-and-down season. From
the beginning of the season through May 17, Perez saved 6 games, blew only one
save opportunity and allowed just one earned run in 14 IP. In the three
appearances after May 17, Perez allowed 7 ER (3 HR) in 2 2/3 IP, blowing a
save, taking a loss and winding up on the DL for nearly the entire month of
June. Coming off the DL on June 28, Perez put together his best stretch of the
season. From June 28-August 4, Rage saved 11 straight games, allowing just 2 ER
in 19 IP. Then came August 5, and the real unraveling of the Chris Perez Era in
Cleveland. In a high-profile game against the Tigers with the Indians still
very much in the hunt for the AL Central Division crown, Perez came on in the 9th
inning of a 2-0 game and promptly allowed 4 ER without recording an out. The
Indians never recovered in the division race, and the already-angry fans never
forgave Perez for blowing that game. From August 5 through the rest of the
season, Perez did manage to save 8 games, but blew 3 save opportunities and
allowed 16(!) earned runs in 18 1/3 IP. He came dangerously close to costing
the Indians a home Wild Card game on Sept. 24, blowing a save against the White
Sox but was bailed out by
the 9th inning heroics of Jason Giambi. Simply by his
performance on the field, Chris Perez was playing his way out of Cleveland.
But there was so much more than just that on-field
performance to worry about. Perez dealt with minor injuries in Goodyear the
past two springs, causing head trainer Lonnie Soloff to famously remark in 2012
that “His body was
clearly not ready for the intensity of that bullpen session.” That could mean a
couple of different things, but the implication that Perez didn’t head down to
Goodyear in optimal shape was what many read into the comment. That it happened
again in 2013 only reinforced that opinion. The best closers usually only throw
between 55-75 innings in a season; if you’re paying a guy upwards of $7 million
to throw fewer than 100 innings, it’s pretty frustrating to see him spend time
on the DL every year.
In
addition to the injury woes, Perez and his wife faced some off the field legal
trouble in 2013. Perez famously had a package containing marijuana delivered to
his house, resulting in 4th degree misdemeanor charges being filed
against both Perez and his wife Melanie. Perez plead no contest to the charge,
and in September was fined $250 and sentenced to one year of probation. He
canceled his twitter account and instituted a season-long media ban, refusing
to speak with reporters after wins, losses or anything in between. Rebuffing
reporters after tough losses and leaving your teammates to clean up your mess
does not exactly speak to positive leadership qualities, and there were
rumblings around the clubhouse that Perez was providing more of a distraction
by his refusal to talk than if he would just step up and take responsibility
for his struggles on the mound.
When
you look at all of the on and off the field issues, it became clear that the
Indians were likely to cut ties with Perez this offseason. Eligible for
arbitration for a third year, Perez was due for a raise despite his less than
stellar 2013, and the two-time All-Star closer was expected to be awarded
around $10 million in arbitration. Even if Perez were still performing at an
all-star level, $10 million is too much for a team like the Indians to be
paying a Closer©. Internal options such as Vinnie Pestano If He’s Healthy, Cody
Allen and Bryan Shaw will likely be given a crack at the role, as will Joe
Smith if he resigns with the club. Grant Balfour is an external name to keep an
eye on, but the closer of the future is almost certainly already in the
organization, which will free up a great deal of money for more economical use
elsewhere. The Chris Perez Era in Cleveland is over, and he departs in 3rd
place in franchise history on the saves leaderboard behind Doug Jones and Bob
Wickman.
In news
that should surprise absolutely no one, Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2014 option was picked
up by the Indians, and just as quickly voided by Jimenez. The Big U is now a
free agent, but the Indians can (and should) extend a qualifying offer so that
if (when) he leaves town, they secure a draft pick in compensation. The
deadline to extend the qualifying offer is 5pm on Monday, but by the time
you’re reading this on Sunday I’d expect that the offer has been made. It’s
really a no-brainer after Ubaldo’s remarkable 2013 season, a sentence that I
did not expect to be typing 12 (or even 5) months ago. Once the qualifying
offer is extended, Ubaldo will have seven days to decide whether to accept it.
My guess is that he’ll reject it in search of a multi-year deal with a little
more security, even if the final AAV isn’t as high as the $14.1 million
qualifying offer. With Tim Lincecum getting 2 years and $35 million from the
Giants, someone is likely to come along and pay Ubaldo even more than that. If
that’s the case, he’s almost certainly thrown his last pitch in an Indians
uniform.
Heading into the 2013 season, the biggest question
mark surrounding the club was thought to be the Indians starting rotation. The
lineup would be greatly improved with the free agent additions of Nick Swisher,
Michael Bourn and Mark Reynolds, and the bullpen would be anchored by Rage
Perez and Vinnie F. Pestano. But the starting rotation had no fewer than five
question marks. Could Masterson bounce back to 2011 form, or was the 2012
version the “real” Masterson? Could Brett Myers make a return to a starting
role after pitching out of the bullpen for the past two seasons? What could be
expected out of youngsters Trevor Bauer, Zach McAllister, Cory Kluber and
Carlos Carrasco? Could former Sugarland Skeeters ace Scott Kazmir make it back
to the majors, and if so how long would it last? Could Ubaldo ever be Ubaldo!
again? Heck, could Ubaldo ever be a legitimate starting pitcher in the major
leagues again? With a couple of notable exceptions (namely the dumpster fire
that was Brett Myers and Trevor Bauer), those question marks turned out to be
the strength of the 2013 club. How exactly did this come about? Every team
enters April with a few “what ifs?” on the roster. Rarely are so many of those
question marks answered with a resounding “yes” than we saw with this year’s
Indians. We’ve touched on it a few times in this space over the past several
months, most
recently two weeks ago when Paul referred to the “Tao of Mickey,” but
Indians 1st-year pitching coach Mickey Callaway deserves a lion’s
share of credit for the team’s surprising playoff run.
Callaway was hired into the org in 2010 when he was
named as the pitching coach for the Lake County Captains. He moved quickly
through the org, serving as the Kinston (now Carolina) pitching coach in 2011,
and then as the minor league pitching coordinator in 2012. When Tito was hired
in the fall of 2012, he looked internally to fill his coaching staff and
Callaway was promoted to fill the role of big league pitching coach. The
results were immediate and drastic. As you’ll see in the below table that
stressed both the limits of my Excel and math expertise, every member of the
Indians rotation had their FIP decrease from 2012 in their first season under
Callaway.
2012 FIP
|
2013 FIP
|
1-year delta
|
|
Masterson
|
4.16
|
3.35
|
-0.81
|
Ubaldo
|
5.4
|
3.3
|
-2.1
|
Kluber
|
4.29
|
3.3
|
-0.99
|
McAllister
|
4.24
|
3.75
|
-0.49
|
Kazmir
|
5.94*
|
4.04
|
-1.9
|
*Kazmir’s
FIP is from 2010, his last full season as a starter in LA
For those wondering what FIP stands for, it is
Fielding Independent Pitching. Basically, what a pitcher’s ERA would look like
if the defense behind him were removed from the equation. As our friends
at Fangraphs explain in more detail:
Fielding
Independent Pitching measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over
a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were
league average…pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken
outlined a better way to assess a pitchers talent level by looking at results a
pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs.
If you really want to see the raw math as to how FIP
is calculated, feel free to click on the link above. Looking at the immediate
and dramatic improvement in EVERY starter’s FIP lends a sabermetric side to the
eye-test assessment that Callaway helped fuel the Indians 2013 playoff run.
While it’s true that pitching coaches are only as good as the pitchers that
they have the opportunity to coach, the ability of a guy like Callaway to come
in and return immediate results in getting the most out of the talent at hand
cannot be overstated. One year samples are usually not enough to draw
meaningful conclusions, and it’s possible that the rotation regresses next
season. But rarely do you see across the board improvement from an entire
starting pitching staff like we witnessed with this year’s Indians. The
improvement of one pitcher is generally offset by the regression of another.
Not so under the tutelage of Callaway. While it is impossible to quantify just
how much of that improvement was due to the pitching coach, it’s pretty easy to
see that he had some sort of positive effect on the staff. Callaway especially
deserves kudos for his handling of Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez had been tinkered
with extensively over the past two seasons, trying to re-create the mechanics and
results from his electric 2010 season in Colorado. Callaway recognized that the
2010 Ubaldo was no more, and rather than trying to radically alter his
mechanics, Callaway made an effort to work with the new version of Jimenez to
get the most out of the righthander. The result was a 10-5 record with a 2.01
ERA in 94 IP from July 9 through the end of the season, fueling a somewhat
unlikely Indians playoff run. If Jason Giambi was Tito’s MVP this year, there’s
no doubt that Callaway was the org’s MVC.
The Indians AA affiliate made headlines around the
country this week, renaming and rebranding the franchise from the Akron Aeros to
the Akron RubberDucks. My
TCF colleague Andrew Clayman did an excellent job laying out the finer points
of the decision to change the team’s
name on Thursday. Personally, the name of the team means
very little to me, and if anything I’m glad that the teams purple uniforms are
no more. If cheering for the RubberDucks rather than the Aeros gets more kids
(and their parents) out to Canal Park (aka The Tub), so much the better. Akron
owner Ken Babby, a 32-year old marketing guru, has taken the team in an
exciting direction since he acquired it last year, and he clearly understands
that people (myself included) do not attend minor league baseball games because
of the teams’ won/lost record. Some attend to see what the clubs’ next big
prospect looks like, some attend to get autographs, and some attend because
it’s much cheaper to take a family of 5 to a minor league baseball game than a
movie, theme park or big league baseball game. Rebranding the franchise has
already generated more headlines for the club in a week than they would
generally receive in an entire offseason. People are going to buy new
merchandise. They can tie in a variety of promotions to the new name, something
that was surely part of Babby’s decision. Even the people who are making fun of
the name are still talking about the name, and if the old adage holds, any
publicity is good publicity. So the RubberDucks will join the Clippers,
Mudcats, Captains and Scrappers as mascots of the Indians affiliates, and I
can’t wait to see them on the field in April of 2014. Which, not that I’m
counting, is just fiveshort months away…
Follow @Gotribe31