Approaching the Deadline on a Lazy Sunday
You’ll have to forgive me if this week’s edition of
Lazy Sunday is both short and a little discombobulated. I started writing it
earlier in the week, and then got a bit sidetracked when I was forced to spend
all day Friday and most of Saturday in the hospital. Long story short, I woke
up at 3am with horrible stomach pain and finally went to the ER at around 7am Friday
morning. A quick ultrasound later, I come to find out that I have gall stones
and my gall bladder has to come out, immediately. Immediately is a relative
term in a hospital of course, but I suppose that it’s a miracle of modern
medicine that about 12 hrs after arriving at the hospital, I was lying in a recovery
bed sans gall bladder. So much of this week’s article will be written under the
influence of perchocet as I lie in bed on the road to recovery. Please forgive
both the brevity of the piece as well as any misspellings, but with the trade
deadline fast-approaching, I wanted to get some thoughts out there for you all.
So with that said, let’s kick off the first ever Lazy Sunday under the
influence of drugs…
The first domino in the annual July trade deadline
fell at the beginning of last week, when the Texas Rangers acquired starting
pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for minor league 3B Mike Olt and a
pair of young arms. The Indians, looking to shore up their starting rotation
heading down the stretch, were reportedly interested in Garza as well. With few
legit starters on the market though, it was a sellers’ market, and the Rangers
were able to meet the steep price that the Cubs were asking for the righty.
Garza is going to be a free agent following the 2013 season, and with the new
collective bargaining rules, the team that loses Garza won’t even be eligible
for draft pick compensation since he was traded mid-season. The lack of club
control and the high cost in prospect currency combined to keep the Indians out
of serious contention for Garza’s services, and with good reason. A very rough
guess as to a comparable package from the Indians would have included Lonnie
Chisenhall, Scott Barnes and T.J. House. That’s an awful steep price for 2 ½ months
of Matt Garza.
Speaking of Chisenhall, his defensive struggles are
overshadowing the fact that he’s been a pretty good hitter of late. In 15 games
in the month of July, Chiz is hitting .269/.333/.462 with 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5
BB and 5 strikeouts. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s put together
a solid stretch of games since being recalled from AAA Columbus. Chisenhall is
still just 24 years old, and if he can just figure out how to hit lefties at
the ML level (.374 OPS against LHP in 36 plate appearances with Cleveland), he
can be a very solid player at the hot corner for the Tribe.
This of course brings us to the question of what the
Indians are going to do here at the trade deadline. As of now, it appears that
three options are on the table; buy a bullpen arm and a starter on what has
become a sellers market, try to take advantage of the sellers market by moving
players of their own, or simply doing nothing. The Padres have made relievers
Huston Street and Luke Gregerson available, and Gregerson would look awfully
good as a setup man in what has become a terrible Indians bullpen. But in my
mind, buying is the least attractive option for the Indians this season. With
the market shaping up like it is, the prospect currency it would take to add
even one impact arm looks to outweigh the benefit. Detroit isn’t running away
with the division, but they’re a talented club that looks primed to improve
their overall winning % down the stretch, not collapse. So that leaves the team
with the choice to sell or sit pat.
I received an e-mail from Pauly C. down at Del Boca
Vista earlier this week pointing
me in the direction of this piece in the Chicago Tribune. I’ll snip the
most relevant section here:
The
Sox are listening to proposals. They turned down a deal involving pitcher
Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals third-highest rated prospect, for shortstop
Alexei Ramirez, according to a scouting source.
Martinez, 21, is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 11 starts at Double-A
Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Martinez, who possesses a fastball in the
high-90s mph range, has struck out 44 hitters in 52 innings.
Leaving the fact that the White Sox must be crazy
not to take that deal, let’s put it in the context of what the Indians could
offer the Cardinals. Yes, we’re back to the possibility that Asdrubal Cabrera
could be dealt to St. Louis to strengthen the most vulnerable part of their
roster. If the Cards were willing to offer Martinez for Ramirez, who hasn’t
posted a OPS+ over 100 since his rookie season back in 2008, what would they be
willing to offer for Asdrubal? Cabrera is coming off of back-to-back all-star
seasons in 2011/12, and while not setting the world on fire this year, his .737
OPS in 2013 far outpaces Ramirez’s .664 figure. Going back to that e-mail from
Pauly, would the Cardinals be willing to part with Martinez, Matt Adams
(blocked at 1B) and another arm for Asdrubal and a lower-level prospect? It
sure seems that way, although we of course don’t know for sure. If that deal is
on the table, I think that Chris Antonetti and company would be crazy to let it
pass by. Martinez is a top-50 prospect who could break in out of the bullpen
this year and assume a role in the starting rotation next season. Adams is
under club control, and could be a long-term solution to the DH/1B woes that
have plagued the Indians for so long. It wouldn’t kill the Indians playoff
hopes this year due to the presence of Mike Aviles, and would really go a long
way towards strengthening next year’s team. If you’re
still not convinced, humor me and read this scouting report on Martinez from
the good folks at Baseball Prospectus:
Martinez has always drawn considerable praise
for his exceptional fastball. He consistently sits in the 94-97 mph range with
his four-seamer and has regularly touched 99 mph in the past. Even his sinking
two-seamer has excellent velocity, sitting in the 92-93 mph range and touching
95 when he wants a little more. Martinez likes to attack with his fastball and
shows the ability to move it around the zone when he doesn’t overthrow. To back
up up his fastball, Martinez offers both a very good curveball and changeup.
His curveball will occasionally work as a plus pitch with tight rotation and
good depth.
As if that weren’t
enough, Martinez’s changeup could be a second legitimate plus-plus offering. He
has tremendous arm speed when throwing it, affording him excellent deception.
Martinez routinely throws strikes with all three pitches and over the last two
seasons has developed his ability to work outside the zone and make the
“pitcher’s pitch.” If the Cardinals decide to keep Martinez in the bullpen long
term, he could become an All-Star-level closer. But many scouts still believe
Martinez has a future as a no. 2 starter in a championship rotation.
That of course all depends on the Cardinals putting
the right offer on the table for Cabrera. If not, I think the Indians would be
served to sit tight at this year’s deadline. Normally, I’d be strongly against
this option, as I feel like teams should either go all-in or move everything
not nailed down in an effort to improve next year. But
when you look at this Joe Ponanski piece on the Royals offseason trade for
James Shields, you can see how the desire to make a move, any move, can sometimes
backfire. With Salazar, Bauer and Carrasco as rotation options next year, a
healthy Vinnie Pestano reclaiming the 8th inning and an intelligent
offseason addition or two, the Indians are really built more for 2014 than 2013
anyhow.
That’s pretty much the thesis of this ESPN Sweet Spot article, which closes
with this paragraph:
With
a core of Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Justin Masterson, Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, the Indians are close to contending. However,
this probably isn't their year. So while it would be fun if they tried to make
a splash at the deadline, the lack of available upgrades and the fact they are
not quite as good as the Tigers suggests the will (and should) stand pat.
And that article doesn’t even mention the Indians
three young starters who could contribute next year.
Everyone who expected Scott Kazmir to be pitching
effectively for the Indians through August, stand up and be recognized. I was
bullish on Kazmir going into the season, but didn’t expect him to stick in the rotation
for this long. I figured he’d either be injured and on the DL or replaced due
to ineffectiveness. Instead, the 29-year old lefty seems to be getting stronger
as the season goes on. He’s pitching his best baseball of the season of late,
and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in a start since June 15. In his 7 starts
since then, Kazmir has gone 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA, 35 K and 12 BB in 45 innings
pitched. Opposing batters are hitting just .148 against him, and he’s allowed
only 2 HR. Kazmir’s emergence as a consistently reliable option helps the
Indians front office, as they don’t have to make a panic move to acquire a
starting pitcher in a difficult trade market. When the Astros are reportedly
asking for not one, but two “top prospects” in return for Bud Norris, you know
it is not exactly a buyer’s market. Kazmir might just be pricing himself out of
an Indians uniform, as if he can stay healthy and effective he’s in line for a
decent payday this offseason. That was pretty much unfathomable just a year
ago, when he was pitching in the independent leagues.
It’s hard to believe that Danny Salazar’s electric
debut was just over two weeks ago; it feels like an awful lot has happened
since then. Since returning to AAA Columbus, Salazar has allowed a pair of
earned runs in 7 IP, striking out 10(!) without walking a batter. He’s biding
his time with the Clippers, waiting until injury or ineffectiveness necessitates
a return trip up I-71 for the talented young righthander. But it doesn’t have
to be that way. A more effective use for Salazar this season might be out of
the Indians bullpen, especially with the recent struggles of the relief corps
on the North Shore. Salazar could be a dominant, multi-inning force out of the
pen, and even act as a “piggyback” for Ubaldo every 5th day. The Big
U has been somewhat effective of late, but he’s been a 5-and-fly guy who can’t
get through a lineup the third time through the order. If Ubaldo can go five
solid innings and turn it over to Salazar for three, the Indians could have a
sort of two-headed monster at their disposal. Salazar’s already electric stuff
would play up even further in shorter bursts, and it would allow the Indians to
manage his innings coming of Tommy John surgery last year. It would get him
valuable experience pitching in pressure situations against major league
hitters, and allow the Indians to shore up what has become the weakest aspect
of the club this year.
As we discussed going into the all-star break,
Indians top prospect Francisco Lindor was promoted to AA Akron from high-A Carolina.
Lindor has appeared in 11 games with the Aeros as of Friday, and has been nothing
short of sensational. The switch-hitting shortstop is batting a robust
.395/.531/.579 with a HR, one 3B, 2 2B and 6 RBI. He’s walked an impressive 10
times while striking out just once. He’s 5-7 in stolen base attempts, and has
scored 9 runs from the top of the Aeros lineup. When you watch the youngest
player in the Eastern League (turns 20 in November) tear through opposing
pitching like that, it makes it hard to believe that his best tool is his
defense. I don’t expect Lindor to sport a 1.110 OPS at the end of the season,
but watching him dominate AA pitching is a sight to behold. I was lucky enough
to see him twice last week when the Aeros took a road trip to play the Bowie
Baysox, and there’s no doubt that he’s the best player on the field when he
steps between the chalk. Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball America
all rated Lindor as their #5 prospect in all of baseball when their mid-season
rankings were released, and it’s easy to see why. Lindor is a special talent, a
kid who could be an all-star shortstop for many, many years down the road. If
the Indians do end up moving Asdrubal Cabrera, it will be because they have the
talented Lindor waiting in the wings, remarkably ready to move up to the corner
of Carnegie and Ontario as soon as the 2014 season.
Lastly, I’d like to wish former Indians manager Eric
Wedge best wishes and a speedy recovery from his recent health issues. In case
you hadn’t heard, Wedge suffered what was described as a minor stroke earlier
this week when the Indians were in Seattle to take on the Mariners. I don’t
think the words “stroke” and “minor” should really even appear in the same
sentence, as something like that is always serious. At age 45, Wedgie is way
too young to have to worry about things like that, and hopefully the docs can
figure out what’s wrong in a hurry so it doesn’t happen again.