Loving Lindor on a Lazy Sunday

The Kansas City Royals have swept their way through three rounds of the playoffs. The Kansas…City…Royals…look like an unstoppable juggernaut destined to win the 2014 World Series. It’s starting to sink in, but it still doesn’t make a ton of sense. The Indians went 10-9 against the Royals this year, finishing up four games behind them in the chase for the 2^nd AL Wild Card berth. The two teams appear similar when you look at those two stats, but in reality they couldn’t be more different. The Royals are winning with defense, speed, timely hitting, a lights out bullpen and two really good starting pitchers. The Indians won this year with incredible starting pitching, horrible defense, and enough hitting to support the former and overcome the latter. In the end, the defense and bullpen of the Royals won out over the pitching and offense of the Indians. There’s a lot more that I’d like to touch on when it comes to KC, but first I want take an in-depth look at everyone’s favorite shortstop prospect, Francisco Lindor. 

“When is Francisco Lindor coming up?” That’s one of the biggest questions for the Indians heading into next season, as Lindor represents by far the cheapest opportunity to dramatically improve the roster in 2015. One only need look at the Indians before and after Jose Ramirez replaced Asdrubal Cabrera in the starting lineup to see how much of an effect a decent defensive SS can have on a team. The Indians were floundering at 53-55 on July 31 when Cabrera was dealt to the Washington Nationals. With Ramirez as the primary shortstop, the Indians closed the season on a 32-22 run. Not all of that was solely due to Ramirez of course, but the switch certainly played a significant role in the club’s improvement. Then consider that Lindor projects to be a better defender and hitter than Ramirez (.646 OPS in 266 PA last year), probably from day one, and it’s easy to see why Tribe fans are drooling over the toolsy young SS. So will the three-headed decision making monster of Shapiro, Anonetti and Francona opt to have the soon-to-be 21-year old SS on the big-league roster from day one? That decision depends not just on whether or not they feel he’s ready to contribute, but whether or not it makes financial sense to start his service time clock in April rather than June or July.

To gain some insight into whether or not Lindor is “ready,” I wanted to take a look the performance of some of his recent contemporary SS prospects. Fortunately, being in the golden age of the shortstop as we are, there were several guys that we can take a look at who are similar to Lindor. I chose the below shortstops because they made their MLB debuts at age 22 or earlier and were ranked in the Baseball Prospectus top-100 prospect rankings. This first table will be the selected SS comps from their respective final minor league seasons:

Name	Age	PA	Slash	HR	BB	K
Xander Bogearts	20	515	.297/.388/.477	15	63	95
Javier Baez	21	434	.260/.323/.510	23	34	130
Chris Owings	21	575	.330/.359/.482	12	22	99
Jurickson Profar	20	166	.278/.370/.438	4	21	24
Manny Machado	19	202	.266/.352/.438	11	48	70
Jean Segura	22	451	.304/.358/.413	7	23	57

As you see, pretty solid numbers across the board. Jean Segura had the lowest OPS at .771. Javier Baez was one of the most prolific sluggers in all of minor league baseball last year, popping 23 HR in just 434 plate appearances. Machado was the only one on the list who was still 19 in the MiLB season in question, and he ended up leading the AL in doubles and making an all-star team as a 20-year old. Chris Owings put up really good numbers that have to be taken with a grain of salt, as they were accumulated in the offense-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League. All in all, the average season for the six players in our sample was an .818 OPS, 12 HR, 35 BB and 79 K over 390 plate appearances. For comparison’s sake, Francisco Lindor accumulated 567 plate appearances last year between AA Akron and AAA Columbus, putting together a .276/.338/.389 (.727 OPS) line with 11 HR, 49 BB and 97 K. That would put him on the lower end of this sample when talking about offensive production only.

Now that we’ve taken a good look at minor league production from our sample, let’s see how those same six guys did in their first exposure to major league pitching:

Name	Age	PA	Slash	HR	BB	K
Xander Bogaerts	21	594	.240/.297/.362	12	39	138
Javier Baez	21	229	.169/.227/.324	9	15	95
Chris Owings	22	310	.261/.300/.406	6	16	67
Jurickson Profar	20	324	.234/.308/.336	2	26	63
Manny Machado	19	202	.262/.294/.445	7	9	38
Jean Segura	22	166	.258/.315/.325	0	13	23

Yikes. That’s…that’s not pretty. Bogaerts was the only player in the sample to play a full season at the MLB level, and he responded with a .659 OPS and a 3.5/1 K/BB ratio. And that was after getting a cup of coffee with the Sox during his age-20 season. Javier Baez struck out in 41% of his plate appearances. Jurickson Profar, tabbed by many as the top prospect in all of baseball, put up an OPS 164 points lower in MLB than MiLB. All in all, our sample averaged 304 plate appearances with a .656 OPS, 6 HR, 19 BB and 70 strikeouts. That’s not a knock on these guys, two of whom have already appeared in the Midsummer Classic and all of whom still have the potential to be fantastic shortstops (or 2B, or 3B depending on the player) at some point in the near future. The point is that making the jump from the minors to The Show is very, very difficult. Expecting Lindor to come up and make an impact right away with his bat is farfetched. He probably won’t be a total zero, but certainly won’t provide a dramatic upgrade to the Indians offensive issues in 2015. If I had to project offensive numbers for him at the major league level next season, I’d guess that he could end up in the .250/.310/.380 range.

With all that said, Lindor’s main tool isn’t his bat, it’s his glove. Fans who were thrilled with the defensive upgrade that Jose Ramirez offered last year are going to be beside themselves when they watch Lindor play the position. Going from Asdrubal to Ramirez was like upgrading from a McDonalds burger to Five Guys. Going from Ramirez to Lindor will be like getting a Ruth’s Chris bacon-wrapped fillet. And it’s very possible that the most important improvements to the Indians going into 2015 will be on the defensive side of the ledger, not offense like many fans are clamoring for.

Getting back to the World Series-bound Kansas City Royals for a second; they hit 95 HR to the Indians 142, scored 651 runs to the Indians 669 and posted an OPS+ of 91 to the Indians 102 (100 OPS+ is league average). The Indians were an above-average offensive team in the AL last year, and the Royals were well below average (lowest OPS+ of any team in the league). The Royals pitching was a little better by ERA (3.51 to 3.57) but the Indians FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.42 to the Royals 3.69. The big difference came on the defensive side of the ledger. The Royals allowed 59 unearned runs in 2014, compared to the Indians 72. KC committed 104 errors, while the Indians made a league-leading 116. But the real hammer comes when you look at the advanced defensive metrics. By Baseball-Reference.com’s Defensive Runs Saved formula*, the Royals were able to prevent 41 more runs from scoring than the average American League team. The Indians allowed 74 more runs (again, worst in the league) than average. So by that formula, the Indians were 115 runs worse than Kansas City, a team that beat them out for the AL Wild Card by four games. A team that has swept their way through the playoffs to a World Series berth. A team that had three players hit double-digit HR, none more than 19 (the Indians had 3 hit over 20). Maybe, just maybe, the Indians offense is going to be good enough to win in 2015, especially when you consider what the pitching staff is capable of. Maybe what the team needs more than a “big bat” is a defensive wizard at shortstop. Based on his 56 games at SS last year, Jose Ramirez projects to be worth 10 runs above average at SS (Asdrubal was worth -10 in 2014, -17 in 2013). Lindor could be worth 20 or more, right from the moment he steps onto the diamond. Combine that with expected regression from Ramirez (I like him a lot, more than most, but I don’t think he’s going to be a +10 run SS for his career), and you see the type of impact that Lindor could have on the Indians 2015 pennant chase.

*B-Ref explains their “Rdrs” formula: The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made.
This number combines the Rpm, Rbdp, Rbof, Rbcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution. Provided by Baseball Info Solutions

So now that we’ve looked at what we might be able to expect out of Lindor the player when he does come up, let’s shift our attention to the Indians front office to try and predict when he will come up. Conventional wisdom holds that ready or not, Lindor will start the season right where he finished last year, playing SS for AAA Columbus. In a recent chat, ESPN’s Keith Law was asked where he thought Lindor would be to open the 2015 season, and his response was “service time uber alles.” Managing service time does have its advantages, but to me, some of those advantages are overblown. Let’s start with the commonly-used “Super Two” argument. For the uninitiated; players must accrue three years of MLB service time before they are eligible for salary arbitration, then three years of arbitration-eligible seasons before they are eligible for free agency. “Super Two” grants players in the top 22% (changed from 17% in the most recent CBA) of two-year service time an extra year of arbitration. If the Indians keep Lindor in the minors long enough, they can make sure to avoid Super Two with their top prospect. I have two counter-arguments to this line of reasoning. One, since that 22% figure is based on that season’s eligible players, the cutoff date is different every year. So it’ll likely be sometime in late-June to mid-July, but no one knows exactly when. It’s possible the Indians could keep Lindor in the minors until Independence Day, and still end up with a Super Two case. My second counter-argument is that this doesn’t affect free agency, only arbitration. Lindor won’t be able to become a free agent any earlier if he ends up a Super Two player. It could wind up costing the team money, but if they end up buying out arbitration years (and at least a year or two of free agency) as they’ve been doing with their young position-player stars (Gomes, Kipnis, Brantley), it’ll wind up being irrelevant anyway. If the Indians miss the playoffs by a game or two and Lindor could’ve been up helping the ballclub even a 

week earlier, then we’ll all be second-guessing the timing of the call-up.

So we’ve looked at some of Lindor’s shortstop contemporaries, broken down how he could potentially contribute to the ballclub on both sides of the baseball and talked about contract issues. Let’s take it one step further and try and predict how the Indians front office might time the call-up based on how they’ve handled top prospects in the somewhat-recent past. I’m going to call upon my Excel “expertise” one last time and throw another chart at you:

Name	Age	Date	AAA PA
Matt LaPorta	24	3-May	1235
Carlos Santana	24	11-Jun	246
Jason Kipnis	24	22-Jul	409
Lonnie Chisenhall	22	22-Jun	543
Andy Marte	22	28-Jul	2509
Michael Brantley	22	2-Jun	844
Trevor Crowe	25	9-Apr	1407
Yan Gomes	25	9-Apr	373

All of these guys came up under the Shapiro or Antonetti regime. LaPorta, Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall and Marte were all consensus top-100 guys in their final minor league seasons. All of the “blue chip” guys came up after May 1. None came up before they turned 22. The only two players who started a season in MLB with the Indians were Trevor Crowe and Yan Gomes, neither of which were considered to be top prospects at the time of their call-up, and both of whom were 25 years old at the time. None came up before they collected at least 246 plate appearances at the AAA level. For reference, Francisco Lindor will be 21 on opening day next year and has just 180 AAA plate appearances under his belt. Super Two or no Super Two, the Indians may feel like Lindor could benefit from some additional seasoning in AAA Columbus before he’s ready to jump up to the big league level.

We’re 2000+ words into answering the Lindor question, and I’m not sure if we have any better of an idea when he’s actually going to make his Indians debut. I’ve long been on the Opening Day train (we need some sort of hashtag…#LindoronApril6 just doesn’t flow), but I’m becoming less and less convinced that is going to happen. No less than Anthony Castrovice thinks the Indians are going to pick up Mike Aviles’ option for 2015, so that would leave he and Jose Ramirez splitting SS to start the season with Lindor opening up in back AAA Columbus. Indians beat writer Jordan Bastian was asked about Lindor in his inbox this week, and here feels like the job is Lindor’s in 2015, just not right away:

Barring an injury or unexpected trade, I would be absolutely stunned if we don't see Lindor in the big leagues with the Indians at some point during the 2015 season. I do not expect that to be on Opening Day. The job out of the gates would seem to fall to Ramirez, who played admirably at shortstop in the second half of this season.

I of course have no insight into the Indians thought process (#sources) on the matter, nor am I a professional scout who can claim to accurately project how Lindor will handle the rigors of a major league schedule. I have seen Lindor play more than most though, and would stake my very insignificant internet reputation on his defense not only playing, but excelling at the highest level. Can his glove justify burning a year of service time for a 21-year old prospect who might not be quite “ready” for The Show? If you expect the Indians to contend for a playoff spot next year (and I do), then I think the answer has to be yes. So yes, I want Lindor up in April. But if you’re asking when I think he should get the call to the big leagues? This may sound like a cop out, but I think he should come up as soon as the Indians brain trust feels he’s ready to contribute. If Antonetti and Tito think he can be the best option in April, bring him up in April. If they don’t think he’s ready right away but are convinced that June 6 is the day, then bring him up on June 6. I trust them to know their own assets better than I do, and will suck it up and soldier on if they don’t feel he’s ready to be The Guy right away. I just hope that decision is made based on what happens between the foul lines, not what may or may not happen in a negotiating session sometime in 2020.

Bringing everything back to Anthony Castrovice and the Royals, Castro penned a predictably outstanding piece on Friday about the Royals unpredictable playoff run, and how the Indians can be encouraged by the success that KC is having this postseason. If you haven’t read the entire thing, you should do so now, but I want to draw your attention to one paragraph in particular:

No, it wouldn’t have happened this year, even if the Indians had somehow snuck into the Wild Card game. The Royals play D, the Indians didn’t. To me, it’s really that simple. Nothing separated the Royals from the O’s in this ALCS more than their ability to make it seem as if they routinely had 18 gloves in the field. So let’s not indulge in any undue fantasies. Stick to the Super Bowl beliefs borne out of a 3-2 start, or go watch LeBron and the boys stroll through the NBA’s plodding and predictable regular season.

The Royals play D, the Indians didn’t. Assuming Castro is right (and Castro has never steered me wrong…Castro is gold), let’s take Occam’s Razor to this issue. What if the Indians improve their defense next year instead of their offense? If Lindor starts the season at SS, that’s a big step in the right direction. Then say the team decides to move Lonnie Chisenhall (to OF, DH or another team) to make way for Gio Urshela, another guy who might not hit right away but who should have no trouble providing above-average defense at the hot corner? Suddenly the left side of the infield turns from a liability to an asset. Maybe Lindor and Urshela don’t contribute much on the offensive side, but Cabrera/Ramirez and Chisenhall weren’t exactly setting the world on fire at the plate during the 2^nd half of 2014 anyway. Imagine the Indians starting pitching with a non-putrid defense behind them? All of this sounds more effective, simpler, lower risk and much cheaper than chasing a mythical “Big Bat” on the free agent market this year. Especially when you consider just how scarce offense is around the league right now. Jordan Bastian took an in-depth look at how baseball is shifting away from waiting for the 3-run HR to a more balanced approach, and how that middle-of-the-order thumper that you can pencil in for a 40 HR season doesn’t really exist right now. And if there is a legit power bat on the open market, it’s unlikely that the Indians can afford to pay him.

Maybe Nick Swisher stays healthy next year and regains his pre-2014 form at the plate. Maybe Kipnis bounces back to another all-star season at 2B. Maybe Victor really wants to come back to Cleveland and cuts the team a dramatic and unexpected hometown discount. But absent that, I think the Indians quickest path to contention in 2015 lies on the defensive side of the diamond, not at the plate. Lindor can and should be a big part of that solution, and I hope he’s there in April. Service time be damned. 

Back in the Groove on a Lazy Sunday

They go to eleven

In the immortal words of Spinal Tap…Helllooooooo Cleveland! I never planned to take five months of from writing about the Indians, honest. But an unexpected and lengthy work trip to the UK this summer sapped pretty much all of my free time, so sitting down to put virtual pen to paper became even more difficult than usual. Combine that with a slow hotel internet connection that failed to stream live video and was rarely even able to keep up with Hammy’s audio feed, and I couldn’t help but feel out of the loop when it came to the 2014 Cleveland Indians. Highlights and box scores can only show so much, and I didn’t make it to a single minor league game after mid-May. I’m glad it was 2014 and not 1994 (or even 2004), because I did at least have the luxury of MLBTV’s condensed game replays, baseball reference, and #IndiansTwitter to help me feel somewhat connected to the team, but there’s no substitute to watching full games day in and day out. Of course, it did allow me to miss out on witnessing live the Indians defensive…challenges, so maybe there’s a silver lining in there after all. At any rate, I’m back in the U.S. for the foreseeable future, and want to try and make our time here at The DiaTribe a little more regular. So expect to see me here on the interwebs if not every Sunday, at least more often than once every equinox.

The good thing about not writing for 6 months is that we have plenty of good stuff to talk about. Putting aside the defense for a moment…how about that pitching staff! And on the offensive side, how about…well…um…Slamtana! Yan Gomes! And of course, our MVP candidate, Michael Brantley. It’s amazing that, after a season with so little turnover in terms of the roster, the 2013 and 2014 versions of the Cleveland Indians were so different in terms of the “stars” of the respective teams. When you look at 2013 by WAR (admittedly not everyone’s favorite stat, but bear with me here because it’s a useful tool for comparison in this instance), the 2013 Cleveland Indians top-10 players were, in order:
Jason Kipnis-5.9 WAR
Carlos Santana-4.3 WAR
Yan Gomes-4.2 WAR
Nick Swisher-3.8 WAR
Justin Masterson-3.4 WAR
Ubaldo Jimenez-2.7 WAR
Michael Brantley-2.4 WAR
Ryan Raburn-2.2 WAR
Michael Bourn-1.9 WAR
Joe Smith-1.8 WAR

 

Other than Jimenez and Smith, all of those players were on the 2014 opening day roster. Of the eight players remaining, just three (Santana, Gomes and Brantley) were in the top-10 in WAR for the club this year. Swisher, Masterson and Raburn combined to be worth -3.2 WAR. Yes, NEGATIVE 3.2 wins from three guys who were worth 9.4 wins last season. So subtract those twelve wins, and consider the biggest addition in free agency this year was Scott Atchison and his 1.7 WAR, and you begin to appreciate the fact that this team was in the playoff hunt down to the last week of the regular season. If you’d told me in March of 2014 that Masty, Asdrubal, Bourn, Swish, Murphy, Vinnie, Kipnis and Raburn would combine to be worth negative WAR in the upcoming season, I probably would’ve guessed that the Indians would win somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 games. Instead, they won 85 and missed out on a Wild Card berth by a couple of games, staying in the playoff hunt down to the final few days of the season. Would I say that I’m happy with a season that resulted in the Indians watching the playoffs from home? No, of course not. But I can recognize the progression that this roster made from 2013 to 2014, and be happy with what guys like Kluber, Brantley, Cookie and Cody Allen are turning into. I can take a step back and objectively say that I think the framework is there for the 2015 Indians to be better than the 2014 Indians, and that’s not something I could say at this time last year. Like it or not, every significant contributor (and those who were not significant contributors) to the 2014 team are team control through at least next season. Most are under team control for much, much longer. The top seven starters are either short of or just entering their arbitration years. Cy Young frontrunner(!) Corey Kluber can’t be a free agent until 2019. Freshman in high school will be in college before Corey Kluber can choose to leave the North Shore. MVP candidate Michael Brantley is signed through 2017, with an $11 million club option for 2018. That option increases by $1 million every time Brantley places in the top-5 of MVP voting, so it’ll probably be at least $12 million by then, and hopefully $16 million. I know the team fell short of what we’d hoped they would achieve in 2014, but they really are set up for success in 2015 and beyond.

Despite shattering all of my hopes and dreams for the offseason (more on that in a second), Anthony Castrovice put out his predictably fantastic season recap earlier this week. Castro continues to churn out excellent and insightful Indians content despite moving on to the national beat, and for that I am grateful. He’s the LeBron of the baseball sportswriters; both are at the top of their respective games, and we have access to their brilliance mainly because each happened to grow up in Northeast Ohio. Every word of his article is worth reading, so if you haven’t had a chance to check it out yet, please do so. I promise this column will be here when you get back.

I miss you so much. Please call me. 

When I mentioned Castro crushing my dreams for the offseason, I was referring to his tidbit on Victor Martinez:

That right there is reason enough not to entertain any dreams of a Victor Martinez return, to the extent that any of you did so anyway. Amazing that Vic, at this stage of his career, stands to be arguably the best bat available in the open market, but I don’t think the Tigers will let him reach that point anyway. I do think he’ll end his career with the Indians at some point, somehow, because that’s something he wants to do. But it’s not going to be with a long-term contract signed with Cleveland. It’s more likely to be the Jim Thome-type waiver claim at some point down the road.

I’ve been onboard the “bring Vic back to Cleveland” train for a while now, but I’m slowly coming to the realization that it is probably not in the cards this year. Victor slugged his way to an incredible .335/.409/.565 line this season, good for a league-leading .974 OPS. He finished with a career-high 32 HR, and will almost certainly in the top-5 of the MVP voting this offseason. At age 35, he’s both at the top of his game and angling for his last big contract, coming off of the 4-year, $50 million deal he signed with Detroit back in 2011. If the Indians sign a bat this offseason, it probably isn’t going to be Victor. The Tigers can’t afford to lose his presence in the lineup and in the clubhouse, especially with the unexpected “decline” of Miguel Cabrera from otherworldly to just really, really good. Mike Ilitch is going to break out his checkbook this offseason to keep Martinez in Detroit, and unless his heart is dead-set on a return to Cleveland right now, I don’t see any way the Indians can make an offer that will even be in the ballpark of what he’s going to get from Detroit.

So especially in light of what is (or isn’t, as the case may be) available when it comes to offense this offseason, should the Indians #1 priority even be adding offense? It’s easy to look back at this season and point to the offense as the problem, especially down the stretch as the team was able to waste a plethora of strong starting pitching performances in close games (31 runs as a team in 13 September losses). But as Jordan Bastian details, Tito Francona doesn’t necessarily see the club selling out for offense this winter:

Potentian Indians Free Agent Target?

Is adding a “big bat” a priority this winter?

Francona: “I think that’s the easy [answer]. It’s, ‘Hey, go get a power bat.’ OK. What we’re really trying to do is see how many runs our pitching staff we think is going to give up and how many runs we’re going to score offensively, and then where does that fit moving forward. Do we think that makes us a team that can contend? I can tell you from personal experience, I’d rather win 3-1 than 8-7, because it’s a hard way to win consistently. I agree, there are times in a season when you have to win like that, but when your pitching gives you a chance… even the last couple months, as hard as runs seemed to be for us to score, we seemed to have a chance pretty much every night.”

External solutions through free agency can be pricey and risky, as we’ve seen first-hand with the recent Swisher and Bourn signings. Tito and the front office have been on the same page since he agreed to manage the club. Is it possible they’re looking to improve in other ways via the personnel already under team control? What if they think that the offense is going to be serviceable next season via bounceback years from Kipnis, Swisher, Bourn and David Murphy? I’m not saying I think that all four of those guys are going to produce at a higher level next season, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.

If the rotation and bullpen are more or less set and the offense can be “fixed” with rebound seasons from key guys, then the biggest issue this offseason becomes the team’s defense. The word “atrocious” comes to mind when I think of the Indians 2014 defense. Every starting pitcher on the team, with the exception of T.J. House, had a lower FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than ERA. Well, there just so happen to be two internal options to fix the defense as well. The first and most obvious would be to start uber-prospect Francisco Lindor at shortstop next season. Jose Ramirez did a nice job filling in at SS when the Indians traded Asdrubal Cabrera this year, but Lindor has a better glove, arm and bat than Ramirez. My feelings on Lindor are well-known, and service time be damned, I think he should be the club’s SS on opening day 2015. The second internal option would be to either trade or move to the outfield incumbent 3B Lonnie Chisenhall and use a combination of Ramirez, Mike Aviles and prospect Giovanny Urshela at 3B in 2015. Chisenhall put together his most successful season at the plate this year, hitting a solid .280/.343/.427 (120 OPS+). Per baseball reference’s version of WAR, he was worth 3.1 wins with his bat (oWAR). Unfortunately, posted a -1.5 dWAR in the field, somewhat negating his offensive contributions by giving those runs back at the hot corner. The Indians could move Chisenhall to LF, Brantley to RF and use David Murphy and Nick Swisher (sparingly) as needed to fill in. Now, I’m sure you’re all yelling at your computer screen right now that Chiz, Brantley, Bourn and Murphy are all lefthanded, which is one reason I think the Indians might elect to trade Chisenhall rather than try him in the outfield. But unless you think that his 2014 season was a stepping stone to offensive heights yet unseen by the 26 year old 3B, you can’t keep trotting him out at 3B on a daily basis.

I like Lonnie Chisenhall. I think he’s as nice of a guy as you’ll find in baseball. He’s great in the clubhouse, and a hard worker on and off the field. I also think that the spike in his offensive production in 2014 was a bit of a fluke, and that the Indians should move him if anyone shows any interest this offseason. From April 2 through July 1, the span of 68 games, Chisenhall hit .344/.399/.563 with 9 HR (224 AB). He also hit an unsustainable .382 on balls in play (BABIP). From July 2 through Sept 28 (74 games and 254 AB), Chisenhall hit just .224/.293/.307 with 4 HR. His BABIP during that timeframe was .277, a little on the low side but much closer to what we can expect than a sky-high .382. If first-half Lonnie Chisenhall is the real Chisenhall that we’ll get moving forward, then he can absolutely be an everyday 3B, even with the defensive limitations. But if he’s 2^nd half Lonnie Chisenhall, or even the .770 OPS guy that we ended up with after his two halves balanced out, then I just don’t see him as a first-division 3B moving forward. Prospect Gio Urshela projects as an elite defender, and posed an .804 (13 HR) OPS in 104 games as a 22-year old with AAA Columbus this year. When considering those offensive numbers, bear in mind that the average age of the AAA International League pitchers last year was 27.9. He probably wouldn’t have that level of offensive competence right away, but he should at least be a solid defender as soon as he comes up. Fixing the defense could be easier, cheaper, and quicker than trying to find the mythical “big bat” that some fans are clamoring for, and it could be accomplished by promoting internal options Urshela and Francisco Lindor.

One of my favorite Indians related articles of 2014 was published this week, authored by longtime DiaTribe favorite Jon Steiner. Jon and I agree on a lot when it comes to our favorite baseball team, and this piece is no different. Jon sees a lot of anger in the fandom over the Indians front office, from the GM to the Team President to the ownership. He, like me, finds much of that anger silly and misplaced. A couple of Jon’s key points:

But I also think that the fact that people are even having the discussion about firing the GM again is ridiculous. The Indians have won more games in the last two years than the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Rays, the Royals, the Angels, the Rangers, the Mariners, and the Blue Jays. Of the 30 MLB teams, only seven have won more games over this span than the Indians, three of whom reside in the American League. This front office has taken a team with the worst ticket sales in baseball and a hamstrung budget, and won more games than all but three teams in the League.

They’ve also managed to acquire the following players via trade: Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Yan Gomes, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Santana. That’s a 200-hit guy, a soon-to-be Cy Young winner, two of the best catchers in the American League, and two of the brightest young pitching talents in the game. They were smart enough not to re-sign Ubaldo or extend Justin Masterson before this season, even though they caught flack for both.  They single-handedly brought one of the most decorated managers in the game to Cleveland, to play in front of an empty house with unproven players. I think you could reasonably argue that no front office in baseball has done more with less in the last fifteen years, including the Rays and A’s.

The entire piece is filled with salient, intelligent points about the 2014 Indians, the plan for 2015 and how the Indians front office isn’t nearly as bad as some people would like to believe. Does the team need to draft better? Absolutely. But talent can be acquired from a variety of sources, and for every poor draft result, there has been a trade to make up for it. The Indians have turned Casey Blake, Jake Westbrook, Shin Soo-Choo, and Esmil Rodgers into Carlos Santana, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles. The Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia trades, long having been dismissed as abject failures, wound up producing the Indians 2^nd best starter and a probable top-5 MVP position player in 2014. Shapiro and Antonetti are not batting 1.000 on every decision they’ve ever made as leaders of this organization, but to expect them to do so is ludicrous. Anyone who thinks that the GM and Team President are the only thing holding this organization back from a championship are kidding themselves. Jon says that better than I could, and if you haven’t read the piece yet, please remedy that situation immediately. And if you have read it, read it again. It’s that good.

That’s it for this week, as I’m going to ease myself back into the groove here. The only benefit of not writing for so long is that we have a LOT to talk about. I still want to check in on the performance of the organization’s farm teams, plans for 2015, the incredible breakout of Michael Brantley, YAN GOMES and the unbelievable performance of the pitching staff in the 2^nd half of 2014. It’s a long offseason, and we’ll get into all that and much more as the winter drags on. I’d like to offer a sincere thanks for anyone who’s reading for sticking with me here on The DiaTribe, and look forward to spending our Lazy Sunday mornings together more often moving forward. Go Tribe.