Lazy Sunday Hitting All the Bases

Creeping closer to Spring Training as the snow continues to fall on the North Coast (with a wonderful sheet of ice under the newest layer of white fluff), let’s warm our bones by rolling right into a Lazy one:

Terry Pluto has a column that focuses on how two key players for 2009, Fausto (and is that picture to the right still the greatest thing you’ve ever seen, if only for the memories) and Hafner, may be on the road to recovering their past success. He reports that the Indians have found a “small flaw in Carmona’s delivery” which will hopefully improve the command that left him in 2008. Though some could spend thousands of words on the rotation (overly verbose, me?), I think it goes without saying that Carmona could be the key to the Indians’ 2009 season as Lee is assumed to be a solid pillar in the rotation (even if his 2008 Cy Young-worthy campaign is not replicated) and questions abound for starters #3 to #5 as the Indians will try to recognize and utilize the pitchers that best fill those spots earlier rather than later (not that you asked, but I see Laffey, Reyes, and Huff as the three pitchers who fill out the rotation for the bulk of the season) in 2009.

But the wild card remains Carmona as an effective Carmona gives the Indians two potential aces to head the rotation and, while it’s not exactly “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” because the candidates for the back-end aren’t exactly slouches, it puts less pressure on the back-end-of-the-rotation guys to perform at a level higher than perhaps what they’re capable of at this point in their careers. On the flip side, a Carmona who continues to struggle with command and spends the season correcting whatever mechanical flaw has invaded his delivery means that the serious question marks in the rotation start right behind Lee.

As for the other player of note that Pluto addresses in terms of bounce back seasons, he asserts that the Indians, when talking about Carlos Quentin as a possible trade target last off-season, said that Quentin’s numbers would improve in 2008 wherever he played because of the shoulder surgery that he had after the 2007 season. Why is this relevant? Because, according to the Indians, it’s similar to the shoulder surgery that Hafner went through a few months back and in case you forgot how Quentin burst onto the AL after a couple of lousy years in Arizona when he didn’t have a lot of power (where have I seen that recently), he was the leader in MVP field when he decided to punch a bat.

As a quick aside here, Pluto points out later in his piece how the Browns are missing the boat by not making any of their new employees available to the media and by starving their fans, hungry for any morsel of information about the Browns. In comparison, after reading the “information” that came out of the Indians’ Winter Press Tour, does anyone else think that the Indians are pretty aware that putting something (ANYTHING) out there for their fans in even the slowest of times is a way to stay front-and-center in the minds of their fans? Unfortunately for the Indians, the Browns’ fans will continue to seek out anything that they can find and mindlessly flock to fill CB Stadium every Sunday while the Indians figure to struggle to meet their attendance projections despite an off-season that resulted in a team that many are calling the prohibitive favorite in the AL Central…whatever that means in January.

But I digress,
Back to the Winter Press Tour, apparently something of value CAN come out of it and not just the canned responses to the obligatory “how do you feel” or “how do you think the team’s going to do this year” questions. Leave it to Castro to muddle through the muck to summarize the items of interest from the past two weeks.

Going through the notable entries, Castrovince asserts that Dellucci’s going to be on a “short leash”, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, though I'd be very surprised if he didn’t at least break camp on the 25-man if only to let the Columbus OF sort itself out for a couple of weeks/months. Also pertaining to players on the fringe, he sees Barfield as the likely 25th player on the roster, which again shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise as Andy Marte’s ticket out of the organization seems to have been stamped and Barfield represents a player earning the league minimum who possesses some speed that can sit on the bench without blocking a real prospect (Valbuena) by playing 2B at all in Columbus.

On the bullpen, AC says that Atom Miller has to be considered the leader in the clubhouse saying that “If he's healthy and throwing well in camp, it's hard to imagine the Indians using an option on him to send him to Triple-A.” I don’t doubt that bringing Miller north may be a course of action that they’re considering, particularly because reports out of the Dominican League had him buzz-sawing through hitters with 98 MPH heat and a wicked 89 MPH splitter, but let’s all hope that Miller (assuming he’s that 7th bullpen arm) isn’t used like the 7th relievers out of the pen in the past. That is, if Miller is going to be on the 25-man roster on Opening Day, his talent should be what determines where he pitches as opposed to simply slotting him at the bottom of the bullpen ladder because it’s assumed that the progression goes Wood, Lewis, Perez, Betancourt, Smith, and Kobayashi from one to six.

Ideally, Miller’s performance in the Spring should dictate where he slots in the pen and if he’s dominating hitters in Goodyear like reports from the Dominican Winter League purported him to be, there’s no reason that the Indians should have him leapfrog immediately over Masa in the bullpen ladder and be on par with Betancourt and Smith in terms of where he slots. If Miller’s dominant in Arizona, give him a crack at that 6th inning role right away instead of putting him into that 7th reliever role that we saw Mujica and Mastny flounder in, where The Atomic Wedgie’s usage patterns are erratic at best.

Finally, Castro relays that Mike Brantley is “as mature a 21-year-old as you'll ever meet”, a notion that struck me as well when Tony Lastoria and I were lucky enough to welcome Brantley and his agent Josh Kusnick to the radio show some time ago. I don’t know about you, but the 21-year-old version of myself was not the most impressive or mature person that you would meet and Brantley’s poise at a young age, not to mention the fact that he doesn’t turn 22 until May and figures to start the season in AAA, speaks to a self-confidence (not a cockiness) that the special players often exhibit.

On the topic of Brantley, Tony Lastoria mentioned on this week’s show (during which we welcomed RHP Frank Herrmann) that he met Brantley at an event in Lake County and says that Brantley is about 6’2” or 6’3” and a “rock-solid” 200 lbs (which, ironically, is what Grady’s measurements are purported to be), attempting to put to rest any idea that Brantley is simply a slap-hitting speed guy that sits at the top of the lineup with no power. His stature and the fact that he’s still a 21-year-old growing into his body give some validity to Brantley’s comments during our interview a few months ago that scouts had told him that a comp for him was Garrett Anderson…which, at the time, I scoffed at. Certainly appearances are just that, but the on-base skills have always been there for Brantley (.399 career minor-league OBP) and he walked twice as much as he struck out last year in AA Huntsville, so it will be interesting to see if his power grows as his body matures and he moves himself further up the ladder.

Obviously, Brantley’s ability to hit for extra-base hits in AAA will go a long way to determining where he projects to be as a hitter, but know that Garrett Anderson had 42 extra-base hits as a 21-year-old in AAA in 1993 before becoming a fixture in the Angels’ lineup for the next 13 years, so if Brantley shows an ability to drive the ball in Columbus (now that he’s completely healthy and not hampered by the ankle injury that robbed him of some power in the 2nd half of 2008), it could portend good things for the PTBNL in the CC deal.

While we’re talking prospects and Mike Brantley, Keith Law’s Top 10 prospect list for the Indians came out this week (via the LGT, which also links that Law has the Indians possessing the 5th best farm system in MLB) and Brantley is not listed among Law’s Top 10. Law puts 5 Indians’ prospects in his Top 66 overall (including “why-did-the-Dodgers-trade-him-for-Lacey-Cake Carlos Santana” at #13 in all of baseball) and has some interesting comments regarding where he thinks his #27 prospect overall, Matt LaPorta, will end up (that would be in the middle of the lineup because of his “ready for the majors now” bat and at 1B because of speed, or lack thereof) going forward. Law is also high on the two young pitchers who could perhaps contribute mightily to the parent club this year, with Atom Miller (#58 overall) potentially becoming a pillar in the bullpen and with Dave Huff (#66 overall) factoring into the rotation mix for sure at some point in 2009.

These rankings (many of which are also linked at the above LGT link) always come off as a bit arbitrary and are certainly very subjective, a topic that Tony and I touched on in this past week’s show as I asked him how exactly he ranks these guys. Because if you haven’t noticed, Tony has been ranking the Indians’ prospects from #100 (!!!) and will be working his way to #1 on his website and is in the process of publishing a book with all 100 Top Prospects along with 30 more “bonus” scouting reports…because 100 simply wasn’t enough. If you’re interested in the book, it’s an absurdly exhaustive resource that probably takes you deeper into the Indians’ organization than you ever thought you would go. Regardless, information on how to purchase the book, as well as Tony’s rankings (I think he’s down to about #70 or so these days) can be found at his website.

To me, these prospect rankings are good reference points but I look at them in a little bit of a different way as I usually focus on the parent club quite a bit more than the farm. I often look at these players in terms of when they’re likely to surface in Cleveland and, in turn, who among each group excites me the most in terms of how much they’ll help. For instance, among the Indians’ farmhands, I see Dave Huff and Atom Miller making the biggest impact, in that order, on the Indians in 2009, with the possibility that LaPorta, Valbuena, Brantley, and Gimenez may help at some point, but more likely that they’ll contribute to the Indians in 2010. Everyone else below them may show up on the 25-man roster, but I’m not enthused about them the way that a guy like Huff excites me. If you’re talking about a 2010 list, I’m probably optimistic that Carlos Santana, LaPorta, Brantley, and Valbuena make an impact, again in that order. The rest of the guys that figure to start in Akron or below, to me at least, are fun to imagine who they might become (like a Carlos Rivero), but there’s just too much that can happen between now and…let’s say 2012 for me to really get excited about them.

For now, I’ll figure to worry about the 2012 lineup and rotation another day as a nap is in order, thanks to The DiaperTribe’s new favorite time of the day to play with his old man…that would be a little before 5:00 AM. And after an evening that only furthers my obsession with the new Indigo Imp Brewery’s products (which you need to find on the shelf of your local Heinen’s and try if you’re on the North Coast), I need a nap if only to dream of “the crack of the bat…the roar of the crowd…catch the fun, it’s here everyone!”
It’s getting closer…

Arizona Dreamin’ – Starting It Off

Since the Spring Training Countdown Clock tells me that Pitchers and Catchers report less than three weeks from now, I thought that this would be as good a time as any to get into some of the different issues that figure to be sorted out in Goodyear for the 2009 season. Unless you REALLY have an interest in the WBC rosters (and as long as no Indians’ pitchers are on said roster, I don’t) or want to deeply examine why the prospect of Garko running around in the outfield makes me think of John Belushi as a Decathlete plugging “Little Chocolate Donuts”, there’s not a lot that figures to be happening on the Reservation between now and February 12th, outside of the wildly entertaining Winter Press Tour.

Thus, to pass my time until February 12th (get here already!), I thought that I would try to break down the different aspects of the Tribe roster in a series of pieces and get into some of the questions facing the Tribe that will hopefully find an answer before the team heads East from Goodyear to Arlington for the Season Opener against the Rangers on April 6th. Starting out the series, let’s get right into what looks to be the area of the team that is probably the most important part of the team, but also arrives to Arizona with the most question marks around it – the starting rotation as a whole and, more in depth as to how the middle-to-back-end of the rotation looks to be filled out by the candidates to fill out the rotation to start the season. Obviously, there’s a lot of folks who plan on attending that middle-to-back-of-the-rotation party, but how about we start with a little bit on some things to watch in Spring Training for the pitchers that figure into the top two slots in the rotation, whose importance cannot be underestimated given the question marks behind them.

Starting at the top, Cliff Lee’s 2008 remains the great (and wonderful) mystery of the season as he elevated himself from presumed back-end-of-the-rotation fodder to winning the Cy Young. While his 2008 seemed to come out of nowhere as his numbers had all declined to some degree from his 2004 and 2005 seasons to the point that him getting the 5th spot out of Winter Haven last year was no sure thing (remember this one?), there’s no debate that Lee’s season was a revelation, as he outperformed every pitcher in the AL by attacking hitters, getting ahead in counts, and looking to be in total control with every pitch. His success can be traced to his ability to spot his fastball and limit baserunners, which resulted in his ability to get strikeouts to rise, without compromising the amount of hitters he walked.

To that end, it will be interesting with Lee this Spring to watch his K rate to see that he’s striking batters out with the consistency that he did last year, after seeing it drop for a couple of previous years, and watching to see that he’s keeping with the low BB rate that helped his tremendous 2008 season. If he can keep up the tremendous ratio of K to BB as he did in 2008, or at least show the similar signs in Spring Training that mean that he’s still attacking hitters with his fastball and throwing strikes with location. If he is, there’s no reason to believe that 2008 simply will be remembered as the year that Cliff turned the corner into an elite pitcher, and not the aberration that some believe it to be.

With Carmona, you’re really looking at a total body of work that started with the mostly forgettable 2006 season that saw him get into one whale of a groove when he entered the bullpen (0.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26 K, 7 BB over 28 1/3 IP in his first 22 games as a reliever) until the wheels famously came off when he was given the chance to close. He followed that off with his breakthrough 2007 as a starter, when he was statistically one of the top five pitchers in baseball, only to come back with his downright disappointing 2008 season, during which his 0.83 K/BB ratio (that would be more BB than K) didn’t…um, rank real high in terms of MLB pitchers and puts in perspective how “off” he was all season.

Anyone else feel like they’re riding the Blue Streak or the old Big Dipper on this one…up, down, up, down…
So this should be an “up” year, which means the third consecutive Cy Young for the Tribe, right?
It’s pretty hard to predict what to expect with him as when he’s on, he’s essentially unhittable (one more drink before last call, Torii?) but when he’s off, he allows things to domino on him in terms of allowing baserunners by giving up consecutive walks and hits. Let’s just say that if he stays healthy, that’s step one, which hopefully leads to him finding more success as he attempts to iron out the mechanical problems that allowed batters to simply sit on his sinker and wait for him to throw strikes. But if you’re looking something to watch in Spring Training for Carmona, watch his walk totals as the number of walks he gave up in 2007 (2.55 per 9 innings) more than doubled in 2008 (5.22 per 9 innings) to see if he’s hitting the strike zone consistently and if he’s forcing hitters to swing at his sinker by throwing it for a strike. Additionally, watch the pitch count for him as the number of pitches that it took him to get through an inning in 2007 (14.59 on average) saw an uptick in 2008 (to 16.8 on average). While 14.59 to 16.80 isn’t a huge jump, realize that Carmona’s sinker is designed to initiate grounders and is meant to be swung at and put into play, so the more pitches that he throws, the more that it means that hitters are simply sitting back, waiting for him to throw strikes.

Past those top two, there are players assumed to be starters in the rotation, if only because of their lack of options (Reyes) or a guarantee from the GM (Pavano), assuming health and some semblance of effectiveness in Goodyear. For the 5th spot then, the Indians look to have a gaggle of LHP who will be vying to break camp with the parent club and not simply fill out the Columbus rotation and wait for their chance.

For the pitcher that could be assumed to be the de facto #3 starter entering Goodyear, it must be asked - will the real Anthony Reyes please stand up? A hotshot prospect that turned into a suspect over the course of a few years, The Man with the Flat Brim came to Cleveland and put up some phenomenal numbers, posting a 1.83 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, over 6 starts for the Tribe. While he didn’t miss many bats (only 15 K in 39 1/3 IP, admittedly a small sample size) for the Tribe, he did go through the St. Louis system as a strikeout pitcher of sorts, striking out 136 batters in 128 2/3 IP for AAA Memphis as a 23-year-old in 2005. After that season, Reyes famously ascended to the Majors in time for the Cards’ 2006 WS victory before, perhaps more famously, butting heads with St. Louis Pitching Coach Dave Duncan on what type of pitcher Reyes should be. Whether getting out from under Duncan is a good thing in the long-term remains to be seen, but the early results in his time with Carl Willis portend good things for 2009. If you buy into projections at all (and, if you do, B-Pro’s book should be out by Valentine’s Day), know that the Bill James projection for Reyes in 2009 (3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 135 K to 53 BB in 168 IP) has him re-capturing the magic that seemed to leave him in 2006. If those numbers shake out, or even come close to shaking out, Reyes slots very nicely as the #3 starter that can go a long way to settling the middle of the rotation and serving as the bridge between the top two in front of him and the bevy of LHP behind him.

After Reyes in terms of pitchers who, assuming health and with the expectation that they don’t spike themselves in Goodyear, look to have a spot in the rotation going into Spring Training, Carl Pavano is the veteran reclamation project whose signing has received probably more attention than it truly deserves. If he can truly be counted on to stay healthy and, if healthy, effective will be one of the Spring’s more intriguing developments. I’m interested to see how the Indians handle his inning load in Arizona – if they’re going to treat him with kid gloves with the idea that they want him to stay healthy of if they’re going to throw him out there with the rest of the pack and see what he has left in the tank. Beyond that, obviously his performance will be closely monitored and it will be interesting to see what the Indians do if he’s obviously struggling in Spring Training. That is, if Pavano goes out this Spring and just gets blown up in every outing, will the Indians eat their $1.5M gamble and let the youngsters slot themselves for one more spot or do they give Pavano a few shots in the regular season before the cord is cut?
Of course, Pavano could make all of these points moot and just pretend that the year is 2004 again and become a fixture in the rotation right out of the gate.
As for me…I’m not going to hold my breath for that to happen.

If Reyes and Pavano are assumed to have spots in the rotation to begin the season, there really is only one spot left in the rotation for the likes of Laffey, Sowers, Huff, and Jackson to battle it out for. Out of those names, probably the leader at the starting gate for the 5th spot is Laffey, who has thrived at every level that he’s pitched at (save his time in Buffalo last year when arm discomfort compromised his effectiveness) and his performance after being promoted to the Indians last May. How much has the still-23-year-old Laffey dominated the minors? Take out his 2008 in Buffalo, during which he experienced arm issues, and his minor league statistics are pretty impressive - 3.38 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 583 2/3 IP. Unlike some of the other pitchers in the mix, Laffey has experienced a modicum of success in MLB over the course of two seasons now, enough that the Tribe coaching staff may have a level of confidence in that they know what to expect from him after the last two years, over which he’s posted an MLB line of a 4.34 ERA (104 ERA+) and a 1.40 WHIP. Not exactly top-of-the-rotation stuff, but if that’s what the Indians are getting out of their 5th starter (or perhaps 4th, dependent on how this all shakes out), they could do quite a bit worse. With Laffey, maybe his ceiling is as a 4th or 5th starter, but if he’s 4th or 5th starter right now who can eat innings and post respectable numbers from that spot, it’s worth giving the Babyfaced Bulldog the first crack at showing he belongs out of Goodyear.

In the interest of full disclosure, if we’re talking about a LHP who has shown that he can thrive in the minors, and has experienced success in the Bigs, Jeremy Sowers fits the bill as well as Laffey. Sowers has a minor-league career line of a 2.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 413 2/3 IP, with a tremendous 2008 in Buffalo that saw him post a 2.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with 43 K and 17 BB in 60 2/3 IP. Upon that unbridled minor-league success, throw the second half of his 2006 season (3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 88 1/3 IP in 14 starts) that remains etched in everyone’s memory to some extent as he showed flashes of brilliance, even if nobody could figure out how he was achieving the results he was. Since that run of innings in 2006, though, Sowers hasn’t been able to find MLB success, compiling a 5.88 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP for the Tribe over the last two years. The question needs to be asked as to why Jeremy Sowers has not been able to replicate his 2006 success and why is he able to dominate AAA hitting, only to see MLB hitters tee off on him? I don’t know…and truthfully, some small part of me wants to believe that Sowers can come back to something close to his 2006 success or that he can finally translate his minor-league success to the Bigs. But at this point, it’s going to take quite a bit of convincing for me not to believe that Sowers is not unlike that AAAA position player who thrives against AAA competition but is unable to translate that success to a prolonged MLB career.

If Laffey is the leader at the gate in this field, Dave Huff is the definite dark horse as Huff proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can be successful in AAA with the type of performance in his 16 starts in Buffalo (particularly the 81 K to 15 BB in his 80 1/3 AAA innings) that would translate to success in MLB. Based purely on potential and statistics that portend MLB success, Huff has a leg up on the rest of the candidates with his ability to miss bats and his varied and effective pitch repertoire, which revolves around his ability to spot his fastball and using his change-up to complement his fastball. An X-factor with Huff is that he only pitched 146 1/3 innings in AA and AAA last year after being limited to 59 2/3 innings in 2007. Limiting innings in MLB, particularly for young pitchers, is something that the Indians have always been very cognizant of and limiting Huff’s innings may be in the Indians’ minds when deciding which LHP is going to break camp in the rotation. Huff isn’t likely to throw more than 150 or 160 innings this year and where he throws those innings remains to be seen as is Huff is going to be on an inning limit for the season, so do the Indians want Huff to throw most of those in Columbus? Finally, unlike the rest of the candidates, however, is not on the Indians’ 40-man roster and would have to be added – which would be an easy hurdle to clear if Huff forces his way onto the team out of Goodyear.

As for the long shot in the starting gate, the idea that Zach Jackson figured onto the 25-man roster out of Goodyear as it was (incorrectly, it turns out) assumed that he was out of options. The thought was that Zachson could fill the role of the long man/spot starter out of the gate to allow the rest of the bullpen to settle in Cleveland and Columbus and to give the Indians the luxury of having a pitcher whose workload and frequency of work was not one that they had to closely monitor. With the extra option however, it’s pretty obvious that Jackson at this point will fill that role…just not on the 25-man roster. He looks like a depth starter who is likely to shuttle back and forth between Columbus and Cleveland if he’s called to do so. It’s likely that a number of these other pitchers slot ahead of Jackson in terms of long-term viability in the rotation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a spot start at some point in 2009, if only because he’s already on the 40-man and a scheduled start for him in Columbus may coincide with a need in the big-league rotation. The thought that Jackson could fill the role of a long man for the Tribe in 2009, able to eat innings and pitch without the promise of regular appearances went by the wayside a bit in the past few weeks as the Indians loaded up on veteran depth to go along with their high-ceiling young prospects. At this point in his career, he’ll turn 26 in May without any real MLB success (career MLB ERA of 5.49, career MLB WHIP of 1.52) or a minor-league track record (career MiLB ERA of 4.62, career MiLB WHIP of 1.43) that would project that he just hasn’t been able to turn the corner in MLB, so it’s getting late soon for The Zach Attack to show that he’s a legitimate option in a legitimate rotation and not just the spot starter/long man that he looks to be right now.

When it comes to breaking down the rotation going into Spring Training, Arizona may give us a peek as to whether the Indians can reasonably expect Lee v.2008 and Carmona v.2007 to anchor their rotation and let the rest of the starters sort themselves out. If either is close to as good as they have been, the Indians’ rotation could boast one of the top pitchers in the AL. If both can come close to replicating their successful seasons of the past, the Indians will have arguably the best 1-2 punch in MLB, not just the AL.

Past those two, if Reyes and Pavano are healthy and don’t completely implode in Goodyear, both are going to be breaking Spring Training in the rotation. Where they slot in the rotation really doesn’t matter that much to me as if both are healthy and even moderately effective into…let’s say May, then the Indians will be thrilled with them in the middle of their rotation.

As for the rest of the candidates going for the 5th spot, I would think that the spot is Laffey’s to lose at this point as he had the most success in MLB in recent years and the fact that the all of these guys all have options remaining means that they can all be stashed in Columbus to sort themselves out and to allow the Indians to mix-and-match and dip into their depth to find the hot hand as the season progresses.

Lots of questions face all of these candidates and the idea that Jake Westbrook returns to the rotation in July still seems to be out there as a bit of a wild card in the deck. How much can reasonably expected out of Westbrook remains to be seen (if, in fact, he even comes back that early and is ready to pitch in MLB), but the 2009 rotation looks to be a pretty fluid situation, Jake or no Jake, where the Indians may be seeing their rotation evolve from the Season Opener all the way into the Fall, depending upon the performances of the individual pitchers. It’s always possible that a guy like Scott Lewis emerges to jump ahead of everyone, but to me most of these guys that don’t get the 5th spot (Lewis included) simply serve as the depth that figures to be leaned on to find the right mix of pitchers to fill out the rotation.

The rotation is likely to play a big role in what the 2009 Indians do, and some of the questions that need to be answered to ensure that the rotation remains a pillar of this team (or at least close to it) figure to find some answers in Goodyear.

Lazy Sunday With a View From Pluto

More snow is falling as another Sunday is upon us and before we try to avert our eyes from the AFC Championship Game, let’s get rolling with another Lazy Lazy:

In what was the biggest news of the week (at least to me), Tony Lastoria and I were lucky enough to have Terry Pluto join us on this past week’s edition of “Smoke Signals”, which turned out to be not only an exciting moment for me (given that Pluto, to me, is the crème de la crème of Northeast Ohio writers), but also tremendously enlightening on a myriad of topics. The audio can be listened to here in a podcast, but if you don’t have a spare hour, here are some of the high points:

Rotation
He doesn’t think that the Pavano signing represents much more than a lottery ticket for the Indians, in that they might get lucky with it, but it’s not something they should count on to “pay the mortgage”. Pluto thinks that Pavano will be on a pretty tight leash and won’t continue to get starts, regardless of performance, into June if he’s obviously a shell of what he was in 2004. He thinks that the rest of the names past Lee and Carmona in the rotation represent just as big in terms of question marks as Carl Pavano, saying that the youngsters (Laffey, Huff, Sowers, etc.) are all far from sure things and putting Pavano in the mix goes along the idea that another arm is better than just going with the youngsters and hoping for the best. To Pluto, how the two at the top of the rotation perform and how the youngsters emerge to fill out the rotation remains the key to the 2009 season.

Shoppach
In a discussion about how particular pitchers work well with particular catchers (with Pluto lending some tremendous insight as to why this may be), I pointed out that Wedge had said in an interview on WTAM that Shoppach was likely to always catch Lee and that Victor was likely to always catch Carmona because of the way that those two batteries clicked (something Pluto expands on with some fascinating numbers with in today’s PD). The conversation then turned to whether the Indians “missed the boat” on trading Shoppach at what could be his peak value and Pluto pointed out that as much as he read about that possibility in our blogs that he NEVER heard a rumor regarding the Indians trading Kelly Shoppach in any sense all off-season. He said that he had the discussion with Paul Hoynes as to whether Hoynes ever heard Shoppach’s name mentioned in trade talks and neither could come up with one legitimate rumor that they heard involving Mr. Show Pack. Pluto said that the reason that he had heard for this is that many teams feel that they have a good young catcher (like Matt Wieters in Baltimore) with whom that team felt comfortable going forward, meaning that the demand for Kelly may not have been what it was thought to be here. Additionally, Terry pointed out that whether or not this is the “peak” of Kelly’s trade value, there will always be a team (regardless of what Shoppach does from this point forward) that will look to Kelly’s 2008 season and see enough potential there for the Indians to find an interested party (see Gutierrez, Franklin Delano).

Hafner
Quoth Pluto – “I will be stunned…I will grow hair, if this guy has more than 500 AB.” Because of the arthritis and injuries that have been sustained in Hafner’s shoulder, Terry thinks that it would be a “disservice” to Hafner to give him 500 or more AB because maximizing Hafner’s effectiveness in 2009 may be accomplished by minimizing his playing time and the amount of strain that he puts on that perpetually troublesome shoulder. Pluto points out that Hafner’s shoulder trouble goes back as far as his days with the Rangers (which is one of the reasons the Indians were able to acquire him for a pittance), and that playing Hafner without giving him shoulder time off to rest on a regular basis is only going to further weaken the shoulder.

Bullpen
Pluto says that he put a phone call into Mark Shapiro last season when he was writing the article (he thinks it was in May…which sounds about right) writing off the 2008 season because of how bad the bullpen was. Shapiro’s off-the-record response of “well, I’m not going to disagree enormously with you…although I think it’s a little early” went further when Pluto told him that he had a bad bullpen, to which Shapiro responded, “yeah…tell me about it.” Pluto thinks that the depth of the arms in the bullpen will prevent that conversation from happening again in 2009 and asserts that The Atomic Wedgie was the driving force behind going after Kerry Wood to settle that back end of the bullpen (something he touched on in a piece earlier this week) and allow the team (as well as the fans) to not dread the 9th inning in 2009 as they have in years past.

Infield
While the Indians would never come out and say it (for fear of taking anything away from Casey Blake, whom they still hold in high regard), Pluto says that the Indians feel that DeRosa is a significant step-up from Blake at 3B because of DeRosa having more range than Blake at the hot corner. In Pluto’s mind, he still would have put DeRosa at 2B, if only to allow Asdrubal to slot over to SS, but points out that the infield arrangement, as it looks today, is “written in pencil”. When I asserted that the players who figure to start the season in Columbus could have a large impact on where Peralta eventually ends up, Pluto mentioned that he’s been underwhelmed by Wes Hodges the couple of times that he’s seen him and that the Indians are high on Valbuena’s ability to hit and that he figures to play an adequate 2B.

Overall, it was a thrill for me to talk to a writer whose opinion and style I respect so much and find it amazing the way that Pluto has an ability to put things in proper perspective, pointing out that the baseball season is enough of a crapshoot that nobody knows what’s going to happen with a team from year to year and all the Indians attempt to do is put multiple contingency plans (without the fear to initiate said plans) in place for those unseen events. If you didn’t come away from the podcast feeling awfully good about what has been done this off-season and what 2009 could become, well…go back to drinking your perpetually half-empty glass.

One of the things that I mentioned in the show was the video from Peter Gammons that referenced the strength of the Indians’ farm system at the upper levels, which includes an absurdly awkward introduction by Karl Ravech.

If you’re looking for more optimism regarding what the Indians have done in comparison to the rest of the AL Central, here’s a piece from The Sporting News. Speaking of TSN, is anyone else on this Sporting News Daily service that basically delivers a Sports Page to your in-box every morning? It’s an interesting concept (while not holding a candle to Google Reader), though it’s awfully long to sort through in the AM.

Back to the off-seasons in the AL Central, it’s true that the Indians’ off-season does look pretty strong, particularly compared to the rest of the Central. But remember that the folks in Motown were clearing space in their trophy case after netting Miggy Cabrera last year (despite the fact that their pitching, which was their downfall, remained a question mark), so being the assumed front-runner in January is a tad bit different than being the actual front-runner in August.

As for what can happen for the Tribe in 2009, here’s a little bit from Castro, quoting Wedge saying that we may see Garko and Barfield perhaps getting some reps in…the OUTFIELD!?!
Is this the moment when you know that the team is making alternate plans at your primary position (Cabrera, DeRosa, Carroll, and Valbuena ahead of Josh at 2B with Victor probably getting a lot of time at 1B this year and more talent at 1B in the minors), when they give you an OF glove?

Shapiro: So, I’m not seeing where Garko’s going to get a lot of playing time at 1B.
Wedge: Hmm…well, it’s not like we’re going to put him back behind the plate and I suppose he’s done enough in the Bigs that we’re not going to send him down. What do you think?
Shapiro: Let’s give him a chance in LF and see if he can force his way into those plans.
Wedge (fighting diabolical laughter): OK…

Somewhere, Ben Broussard is strumming his guitar, laughing, remembering the “good old days” when he patrolled LF at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

On the topic of Garko and Barfield perhaps being involved in the outfield in some sense (and let’s just say that the day that Garko is in LF in a game for the Indians will be a dark day because it means that A LOT has gone wrong in 2009) and the assertion by The Atomic Wedgie that Mark DeRosa will see some time in the outfield, is anyone else noticing the name that has yet to pass through the Indians’ brass lips when it comes to the OF arrangement?
Umm…one Mr. Dave Dellucci?

Not that I’m upset that he’s not being counted on for much of anything, given his performance since becoming an Indian, but does anyone else sense that the Indians are ready to eat The Looch’s contract and go in another direction at some point this year?
The silence regarding Dellucci’s role in 2009 is deafening.

Moving on, Paul Hoynes has some interesting tidbits in today’s piece (done in an entirely more informative format than usual), including reporting that Brad Penny wanted to go to Boston and would have demanded more than the $5M that the Red Sox gave him to come to Cleveland as well as reporting that the Indians did kick the tires on Jon Garland, but found his demands for a multiyear deal less than appealing.

On that topic, take a look at the remaining FA that are still out on the market (notably starters like Sheets, Looper, Oliver Perez, Pettitte, Wolf, etc.) and realize that Spring Training is now less than a month away. Or how about guys like Bobby Abreu, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson (something Rosenthal hits on), Brandon Lyon, and a certain guy named Manny still being out there?
It’s a brave new world out there…

As for the movement by the Indians, they continue to add these arms to the bullpen (Aquino, Saarloos, Vinnie Chulk, Jack Cassel, Matt Herges), most of whom spent time on some MLB roster in 2008. Granted, most of them had varied degrees of success, if you can even say success with most of them given their ERA+ last year (Aquino-36, Saarloos-74, Chulk-91, Cassel-75, Herges-91), but let’s throw it all up against the wall and see what sticks, no?

The nice thing about seeing these names signed is knowing that none of them are being counted on, in any sense of the word, to contribute to the parent club in 2009 and anything that the Indians may be able to squeeze out of them (with their reputation as a place to go for pitchers to stay healthy and rediscover effectiveness) is icing on the cake.

Speaking of relievers, remember when the JJ Putz-to-New York deal went down, how I thought that some of the subtext could be that the Indians’ willingness to get Franklin Gutierrez in on the three-way deal is what helped make it happen? Jon-Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press (who is a very good beat writer, by the by) sheds some light onto those shadows, saying that the Mariners did want to hold out for a CF in the deal and that the Tigers’ Matt Joyce was not what they were looking for. After the Rays rebuffed the M’s and the Mets in an attempt to include Fernando Perez on the deal (because, as it turns out, BJ Upton has shoulder issues), the two teams turned to the Tribe to get the M’s their CF in Frank the Tank.

Just fantastic to keep Putz out of Motown, made better by Morosi’s closing paragraph:
“The Tigers, meanwhile, traded Joyce to Tampa Bay for hard-throwing starter Edwin Jackson. But they did not leave the winter meetings with a closer. And they are still looking for one today.”
I know burns…and that was a burn.

Finally, a big thanks to t-bone for replacing all of the Bisons’ links with Clippers’ links and for, most importantly, putting the Countdown Clock on the main page, particularly as I ready myself for what looks like another day spent with my Toro.

Columbus Day

While the 25-man roster looks to be ostensibly set in mid-January with the signing of Carl Pavano and the assumption that (if healthy) he’ll be in the Indians’ rotation, there are still a few minor questions that look to be answered in Spring Training (who is the 5th starter, who gets the 7th bullpen position, who is the 12th position player) – but you’re talking about the back end of the roster with those positions as the bulk of the Indians’ 25-man roster is in focus. Beyond the mere 25 players that figure to make up the roster coming out of Goodyear, though, the flexibility of said players figures to make 2009 a little more interesting in terms of figuring out who fits where and how everyone fits. Beyond that, then the Indians have depth in Columbus at AAA that could serve as the cavalry to fill holes created by ineffectiveness or injury not unlike the 2007 reinforcements that helped the team to the ALCS.

On the parent club, the Indians have a couple of players who have a multiple positions where they can eventually fit (like Victor at C or 1B) and have a few players who are fighting to become fixtures in the Indians’ plans going forward and not just placeholders until something better arrives (Garko, Francisco) from AAA. To put it in tangible terms, it looks like the Indians are set at CF, RF, DH (God and Dr. James Andrews willing), 2B, SS, and 3B in their lineup with the assumption being that those positions will be filled by everyday players that have a body of work that justifies their inclusion in nearly every lineup card that The Atomic Wedgie fills out. The other 3 positions, however, are in a bit of a state of flux as Garko’s 2008 (does everyone know that before his torrid 14-game stretch to end the season, he had posted a line of .252 BA / .327 OBP / .360 SLG / .687 OPS over 502 plate appearances, which is impossibly bad…particularly for a 1B with limited defensive range) figures to have him on a pretty short leash, which affects both C and 1B and the final 80 games that Ben Francisco played in for 2008 saw him posting a .246 BA / .325 OBP / .416 SLG / .741 OPS over 331 plate appearances, which means that the Indians could very easily move around some pieces and parts in the outfield if he comes out of the gate in 2009 struggling the way he did to end 2008.

First and foremost, C and 1B figure to be affected by the performance of Garko out of the gate as the Indians (very obviously) need to find AB for Kelly Shoppach and their oft-stated stance that “Victor is our Catcher” could go by the wayside pretty quickly if Garko is struggling while Kelly is searching for plate appearances. The short term strategy could be that the Indians will start the season with some sort of plan for Kelly to play maybe 2 or 3 out of every 5 games (perhaps matching up with Cliff Lee’s starts as Chris Kreitzer of Tribe Times Online asserts from his experience at the Town Hall meeting on Tuesday), allowing Victor to move up to 1B and moving Garko to the bench. If, however, Garko is unable to re-capture the success (moderate at that) of his 2006 and 2007 campaigns (or at least raised his OBP to respectable levels), the Indians should not hesitate to make a much more permanent switch of giving Victor more time at 1B and Kelly more time behind the dish. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Garko could even be sent to Columbus, as he does still retain an option, but he would be joining a pretty crowded 1B situation there (more on that in a bit) and would likely stay topside to provide some insurance (albeit minimum coverage) against Hafner’s injury or give Hafner a day off now and then.

As for other options in LF, this is where it gets a little interesting as it’s HIGHLY unlikely that the player that the Indians figure to carry as the “4th OF” out of Goodyear (The Looch) is going to figure into the Indians’ 2009 plans too seriously. If, then, Francisco struggles out of the gate to provide even league-average offense and his defensive circus act continues in LF, what do the Indians do?

The answer is likely to come out of one of the 3 OF that figure to start 2009 patrolling the Columbus outfield – Matt LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, and Michael Brantley. Though Crowe is the only one of the three on the 40-man roster, if Francisco struggles and one of these three (more notably LaPorta and Crowe given their age and advancement, though they’d have to be added to the 40-man) starts the year on a tear in Columbus, the Indians shouldn’t be afraid to cut ties with Dellucci and promote whomever merits the promotion, move Francisco into the 4th OF role and strengthen the lineup in terms of quality and depth (particularly if LaPorta’s the guy) by jettisoning Dellucci and adding a bat ready to ascend to MLB, slotting Francisco into a role that may suit him better than that of an everyday OF.

The beauty of the AAA OF situation is that any of the three Clippers’ OF could make a move into the Indians’ 2009 plans, but looking further at (what is admittedly an educated guess) the Columbus position players, check out how many of these names you recognize and how the dreadful 2008 AAA non-prospect roster (where 9 of the 11 players who had 200 or more AB were 26 or older) was in comparison to this:
C – Wyatt Torregas
1B – Jordan Brown
2B – Luis Valbuena
SS – Andy Cannizaro
3B – Wes Hodges
OF – Matt LaPorta
OF – Michael Brantley
OF – Trevor Crowe
Utility – Chris Gimenez
1B/DH – Michael Aubrey
2B – Josh Barfield
OF – Warm Body
With the exception of Cannizaro (who was signed to be the Bisons’ SS last year), Aubrey (who cleared waivers and may or may not be on this team), and the Warm Body, most of these guys still project as prospects and potential MLB players in some capacity.

Even Barfield, still just 26 and with some measure of success in MLB, is a better option than some of the roster fodder that was seen in Buffalo last year. And, really with Barfield, he may end up on the parent club as the 13th spot among position players looked to perhaps come down to Barfield and Marte with Shapiro pretty much throwing Marte out the window with this comment, “at this point, in all honesty, it’s tough road for Andy. Barring an injury, it’s hard to see him as a fit on our club.”

Not unlike 2007, when the Indians used their farm system to fortify the team for the stretch run and use it for depth effectively, the AAA team figures to be full of players fighting for position to get the attention of the Indians and slot themselves into a pecking order for promotion in 2009 or 2010.

By the same token, the pitching staff in Columbus figures to be absolutely loaded with talented arms, and could look like this depending on who breaks camp with the Tribe (for my guess, I’m putting Laffey in the 5th starter role behind Reyes and Pavano and have Mujica getting the 7th bullpen spot), which again is full of talented youngsters, nearly all of whom are still considered prospects:
Rotation
Dave Huff
Scott Lewis
Jeremy Sowers
Zach Jackson
Tomo Ohka

Bullpen
Atom Miller
John Meloan
Tony Sipp
Rich Rundles
Randy Newsom
Greg Aquino
Kirk Saarloos
Quite a change from the John Halama, Jeff Harris, Jeff Weaver, Matt Ginter, Brian Slocum starters in AAA last year with Rick Bauer closing, no?

Depending upon what happens in Spring Training and what decisions are made, there are 4 of those starters that I wouldn’t have too much of a problem filling the #5 spot in the rotation at some point in 2009 (sorry, Tomo) and think that the top 3 names in the Columbus bullpen (health willing) are probably legitimate back-end of the bullpen options going forward in Cleveland with Rundles and Newsom projecting as bullpen specialists (LOOGY and ROOGY, respectively) that can find a role on the team as early as 2009 depending upon the health and effectiveness of the players ahead of them.

What this all means is that the days of Matt Ginter starting with Juan Rincon and Brendan Donnelly coming in to relieve him are hopefully over as the names that figure into the mix as depth options for 2009 are legitimately considered part of this team’s future and how they perform in Columbus should determine how they arrive to Cleveland to fill the holes that are sure to present themselves as the season progresses.

Luckily, the Columbus players will sort themselves out a couple of hours away on I-71 with the promise that STO will be airing games this season so fans can see for themselves what a Dave Huff start looks like or what Atom Miller looks like as a reliever or how the three OF who could find their way up I-71 at some point this season look at the plate and on the field before they make it to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

The road between Progressive Field and Huntington Park figures to traveled regularly by more than just Indians’ fans this year, with the players available in Columbus this year will hopefully serve as the depth that the Indians may need as 2009 wears on.

In a wildly unrelated programming note, don’t forget that Terry Pluto will join Tony Lastoria and I for this Thursday’s edition of “Smoke Signals”, which will start at 9:30 PM here and will be available as a podcast as soon as the show is complete.

Lazy Sunday Looking for Spring

Having hopefully concocted the proper mixture of 32 parts gasoline to 1 part oil (as Toro suggests) for the snowblower for the last time on a weekend spent ostensibly indoors as the City of Cleveland plows made it to my street at…oh, about 10:30 PM last night, it’s time to launch off into a Lazy Sunday, if only to break up the monotony of snow removal from various driveways and sidewalks in my neighborhood.
Nevertheless, we’re off:

Starting off where we often do, Terry Pluto gets our appetites whetted for Spring Training with some news and notes on players like Ben Francisco and Anthony Reyes, noting how those two players are players whose 2009 seasons could go in a variety of directions as their respective careers (to date) have been up and down. Either could work his way into the long-term plans of the team with a strong 2009, but both could just as easily become roster fodder with a poor 2009.

Pluto also has some quotes from Shapiro on Hafner’s health and how the team scored the 6th most runs in baseball without Hafner and Victor and how the return of Pronk (or even some variation of the monster that wore the #48 jersey for a few years) can propel the team to having “an elite offense”.

More Shapiro comments come on Aaron Laffey and how Pluto asserts that “Shapiro feels strongly about Aaron Laffey claiming a spot in the rotation.” It’ easy to forget what Aaron Laffey did in 2008 because of the way his season fizzled away, but in his first 14 starts for the parent club last year, Laffey posted a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP with a .696 OPS against. He lasted 5 innings or more in all 14 starts with a stretch of 21 consecutive scoreless innings mixed in while essentially replacing Jake Westbrook in the rotation with what could be perceived as Westbrook at his very best – inducing grounders, minimizing damage, and attacking hitters.

To me, as 2009 rolls forward, the presence of Laffey and Dave Huff in the rotation may have a greater impact than any of the other candidates for the back-end of the rotation. It’s conceivable that Reyes stays healthy and becomes a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and less conceivable that Pavano does (in terms of health and effectiveness), but it’s easy to forget that Laffey doesn’t turn 24 until mid-April and has a career 3.47 ERA in the minors with a career minor-league WHIP of 1.28. At his tender age (a full year younger than Huff, who also excites me) and with 143 career MLB innings under his belt, Laffey could become that steady middle-of-the-rotation presence that we all know Jake Westbrook to be – perhaps as early as this year.

Back to the addition to the rotation, Hot Carl Pavano, Castro has an interesting bit as to how the team settled on Pavano as the “veteran” that they were looking for, saying that, “the Indians plucked Pavano out of a discount bin of starters trying to revive their careers after major injuries. The Tribe also looked at Mark Mulder, Kris Benson, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon before ultimately deciding Pavano had the best combination of performance upside and the sheer physical ability to take the mound early and often this season.”

Whether or not that’s the case remains to be seen as this Pavano signing comes with a giant grain of salt with me (as would the signing of any of those other names above) simply because of the health issues and because there’s no guarantee that Pavano will somehow become anything close to the pitcher he was in 2004 (his only really great year) after so many arm troubles.

After getting a number of e-mails from people who thought I was overly hard on the Pavano signing and who thought that the Pavano deal was exactly the kind of deal the Indians should have been targeting, let me say this (and if you feel like you’re reading it for the 2nd time, it is mainly what I put up in the comments section a couple of days back) – I didn’t mean to throw cold water on the Hot Stove with my piece on Pavano, it’s just that I’m kind of indifferent to this deal as it I just don't see Pavano staying healthy, given that he hasn't been since 2004. What I was trying to project was that Pavano just looks like another question mark to me and doesn't really make me feel any better about the state of the rotation.

Certainly it's a low-risk option and maybe he does have something to prove, I just don't see Pavano adding much more to the rotation than the hope that he'll miraculously return to his 2004 form after too many injuries to even count.

I think a lot of people see the name “Carl Pavano”, know that he was (for at least a season) one of the better pitchers in baseball, know that the Yankees gave him all of that money, and get excited for Kevin Millwood redux when the two scenarios are very different. All I was trying to point out was that he simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy and that one season was now a full four years ago.

It's not that I HATE the deal, it's just that I don't love it the way that I do the Wood, DeRosa, Smith, and Valbuena acquisitions and don't think it does anything to settle what still looks to be a questionable back of the rotation. There’s no question that the off-season has been a wild success, in terms of addressing issues, but I don’t put the Pavano signing in the “plus” side of the ledger with the rest of those additions just yet.

Moving on to other potential moves, with John Smoltz heading to Boston, could the Indians and Red Sox be getting back into talks that could result in Kelly Shoppach returning to Boston to fill their need at Catcher. The logic goes that the Red Sox adding Smoltz and Penny to their rotation results in some of their young arms (notbably Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson) potentially being trade bait to add that catcher.

If you’re wondering what the thought in Boston is, look no further than Sweet Pete Gammons himself, who when asked about the Red Sox finding a starting catcher, says that “there's a difference between wish list and realistic wish list, but right now, they seem to be focused on Miguel Montero from Arizona, with Saltalamacchia in Texas a possibility. Early in the fall, they tried to make a run at Russell Martin of the Dodgers and Mike Napoli of the Angels, but without success.”
I missed the inclusion of Kelly Shoppach’s name there.

Additionally, Tony Massarotti is still thinking that Jason Varitek will re-sign with the Red Sox or that Jarold Saltalamachia is still the target if they go the trade route to add their starting Catcher.

While the roster looks about set on January 11th, there’s still quite a bit can happen in the next month for the Indians and for most other teams that will affect their needs going into the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 25-man roster goes through a few changes as the season progresses as a lot of the players that figure into the 2009 mix retain options and flexibility in terms of what positions they can play. Additionally, the AAA team looks to be pretty loaded with high-ceiling players who could very easily force their way onto the big league club if an opportunity presents itself. The 25-man roster in 2009 could be a very fluid entity as players go from Cleveland to Columbus and back and positions sort themselves out in the proper way – on the field.

Elsewhere, The Zach Attack (which I’m happy to see Castro has picked up) has a 4th option to use because of some MLB roster rule that I’m not going to pretend to understand. It’s a nice development as it gives the Indians more flexibility in filling out the 7th spot in the bullpen. If you’re looking at the top 6 of Wood, Lewis, Perez, Betancourt, Smith, and Kobayashi, the candidates for the 7th member of the bullpen out of Spring Training would stand to be Jackson, Mujica, and Rundles.

The effect that Jackson’t extra option has is that the Indians now have the option to either keep Mujica (who is out of options) to see if he can ever find some semblance of consistency and effectiveness to turn into a bona-fide bullpen option. If they don’t feel that he can, Jackson can take the role of a long man out of the bullpen or Rundles can become the 2nd lefty in the pen (as Jackson doesn’t count as a LOOGY like Rundles does, given that LHB have a .899 OPS against him in his time in MLB).

While it’s possible that the Indians could go with one of their high-ceiling flamethrowers out of the gate, breaking camp with Atom Miller of John Meloan as the 7th reliever, I’d prefer if those guys started the season in Columbus, only to allow the Indians’ bullpen to sort itself out independent of them, allowing either to get steady work in Columbus to build confidence and a routine instead of being used sporadically in the bullpen the way that the 7th man usually is by Wedge, which may hinder their development. Obviously, either is preferable to having the likes of Kobayashi or Mujica in the bullpen as the season progresses, but I’d prefer those guys to start the season in AAA to adjust to a full season of being a reliever again (in the case of Meloan) or ever (in the case of Miller). After either (or both) forces his way into the plans of the team, the Indians can make a move – but to just put either in that Mujica/Mastny role that we know doesn’t get steady work just slows down their development as back-end-of-the-bullpen options.

Around the AL Central, Joe Posnanski has a piece that should make you fall to you knees and thank whomever you thank when things like this are revealed to you regarding the track record of Royals’ GM Dayton Moore when it comes to the FA market in light of the Willie Bloomquist signing.

In case you missed it, Tony and I were happy to welcome Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub (who you may recognize as the 3 players dealt for Mark DeRosa) in Thursday’s episode of “Smoke Signals”. It was fascinating to hear from the players’ perspective how this whole process works and how they leave the Indians/join the Cubs with mixed emotions.

In a GIANT bit of news, Tony and I will be happy to welcome Terry Pluto (yes, that one) for the show this week with more details to come as well as a link later in the week to serve as a reminder.

And finally, courtesy of poster Andrew in the comments section, here’s Episode 1 of The DietTribe via itunes. If you haven’t visited the comments board lately…well, that’s on you because there’s some great thoughts over there:


Nice.

Looking outside at the mounds of snow, just keep repeating to yourself that Spring Training is coming, Spring Training is coming, Spring Training is coming…

Idling Into Cleveland

After the Indians filled their holes in the bullpen and in the infield (for the short and long term) with a sizzle, it seems that the off-season will end with a bit of a fizzle as the Tribe has signed Carl Pavano to the 2009 rotation mix on a one-year, incentive-laden deal that guarantees Pavano $1.5M with $5.3M additionally available if certain incentives are reached, ostensibly ending the Indians’ off-season. The rationale behind the Pavano deal is that adding him to the rotation gives them some depth in the rotation, allowing Pavano to be a candidate to fill one of the three spots in the rotation behind Lee and Carmona. Since a number of the candidates for those 3 spots still have options (notably Laffey, Sowers, Huff, and Lewis), it would stand to reason that Pavano (who was dubbed “American Idle” by the brutal New York tabloids), even if remotely healthy or effective, will given a spot out of Spring Training to sit in the #3 or #4 hole in the rotation.

A low risk signing with potential to pull that “Kevin Millwood Miracle” of 2005 out of the hat again, right?

I guess, but this move doesn’t really do much for me as Pavano has really only had two good years (OK, one very good and one decent) in his 11 MLB seasons. While both of those years were his final two in Florida (during which he complied a cumulative line of 3.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.78 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 2.76 K/BB, which is certainly an impressive performance), that was in 2003 and 2004. He’s only pitched 145 2/3 innings since then over the last 4 years, and has pitched more than 140 innings only twice (those two final years in Florida) in his 11-year career.

When healthy, Pavano’s a good middle-of-the-rotation starter…except that he hasn’t been healthy in four full seasons now. I suppose if Pavano somehow finds a way to stay healthy, he’s another arm to throw into the mix, but his performance (when allegedly healthy) in 2008 doesn’t exactly scream that he’s turned a corner as a pitcher or that he’ll re-discover his 2004 form. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher or had dominant stuff, so he’s a decent middle-of-the rotation option…if healthy (which, if I have failed to mention it, is no certainty).

It’s true that the Indians are buying low on him, like Millwood, and giving him the opportunity to pitch his way into a bigger contract and back into legitimacy, right?

Maybe, but prior to Millwood signing his reclamation contract with the Indians (for $7M guaranteed, if you’ll remember), he had put up 200+ innings 4 out of his 7 full years in MLB (the lowest inning total being 121) and had put up inordinately better numbers year after year than Pavano, who seems to still be living off the 2004 (which looks to be the aberration when looking at Pavano’s body of work) that netted him his payday in the Bronx.

Maybe Pavano, out of the bright lights of the big city, can re-capture some semblance of the career that derailed in 2004. I’m not that optimistic that he can, given his varied and illustrious injury history and the fact that his career and reputation have been built on one admittedly fantastic season. Shapiro’s saying all of the right things about his health and his hunger, but the Indians are protected against him being injured or being ineffective enough to be cut loose as the incentives in the contract are pretty straightforward as “Pavano gets $100,000 each for reaching 18, 20 and 22 starts, $200,000 each for reaching 24, 26 and 28 starts, $250,000 for 30 starts, $300,000 for 32 starts, $350,000 each for 33 and 34 starts and $400,000 for 35 starts. He gets $100,000 each for reaching 130, 140 and 150 innings pitched, $150,000 each for 160 and 170 innings, $200,000 for 180, $250,000 for 190, $250,000 for 200, $300,000 for 215, $400,000 for 225 and $500,000 for 235.”

He’s had 24 starts twice in his 11-year career and has reached 140 innings only twice, so he’s going to have to come ROARING back into shape for most of those incentives to kick in. Being very optimistic, let’s say he has 23 starts and 130 IP – his salary bumps from $1.5M guaranteed goes to $1.9M guaranteed.

Overall, the signing itself and adding Pavano doesn’t do much for me other than to know that there’s another arm to add to the rotation mix to perhaps eat some innings until Jake Westbrook returns from injury (hopefully) in the middle of the season. Realistically, a healthy Pavano, is better than simply giving innings to Jeremy Sowers and it adds the depth that the Indians love, where they can go 7 or 8 starters deep, with the top of the AAA rotation serving as insurance against injury or ineffectiveness. It certainly sets up an interesting battle for the 5th spot in the rotation (remember, Reyes is out of options) as Laffey, Sowers, Huff, Zach Jackson (who does have an option left) and Scott Lewis all fight NOT to go to Columbus.

But (while I never wanted to remember or invoke this name ever again) let’s all say right now that the “Lesson of Jason Johnson” should be in full effect with Pavano. That is, if Pavano is not healthy, or is obviously ineffective, while the talented youngsters that now figure to start the season in AAA (notably, Dave Huff) prove that they’re further along than AAA (and Huff may have already proved that in his 16 starts in Buffalo last year), he should be on an awfully short leash and that this low-risk contract should be one that the Indians are not afraid to eat early and admit a mistake before it’s…I don’t know mid-June or so.

More interesting to me than simply adding Pavano is what the signing means in the long-term as it’s likely that this is the last move that the Indians make this off-season as they’ve now added to their bullpen, their infield, and their rotation. Unless Pavano was added to create more depth to allow one of the young LHP to be part of a package for a surer thing in the rotation, this looks to be the 2009 Indians, which brings some things to light.

First off, for the first time in what seems like a long time, the rotation figures to go into Spring Training with a lot of “ifs” around each of the principals that figure to make up the rotation:
What if Cliff Lee shows that 2008 IS NOT who he is as a pitcher?
What if Fausto Carmona shows that 2008 IS who he is as a pitcher?
What if Carl Pavano can’t stay healthy or has had injuries take their toll on his effectiveness?
What if the injuries that shut down Anthony Reyes and Aaron Laffey rear their ugly head again in 2009?
What if the Aaron Laffey we saw when he was promoted is nothing more than a Sowersesque mirage?
What if Jeremy Sowers’ career descent cannot find a bottom?
What if the young pitchers like Huff and Lewis fail to take that next step?

For an organization that has been designed to be built on strong starting pitching, that’s a lot of variables at play to fill out the top 5 spots in the rotation. Perhaps we’ve been spoiled by knowing who would be getting the majority of the starts during the season when the team got to Spring Training as far back as 2005, but the middle-to-back of the rotation still looks to be built on sand to me, Pavano or no Pavano.

Going further than that, the Pavano signing removes, for the most part, the thought of trading Kelly Shoppach for a middle-of-the-rotation starter as Pavano is designed to fill that need. What that means to me is that concerns about the health of Hafner and Martinez and the long-term production of Garko are significant enough that the Indians don’t want to part with their insurance policy against another lost or poor year by any of them. Because, on the surface, everyday AB don’t look to be there for Shoppach (despite him earning them in 2008) as the Indians’ oft-stated stance is that Victor is the catcher, which would mean that Garko remains the de facto 1B. If Hafner is supposed to be healthy for 2009, how does this not suddenly look like a part-time position for Shoppach or maybe some sort of platoon with Garko, when Shoppach far outperformed Garko in 2008?

The Indians claim that they can find regular AB for all four players at three positions, but I’m just not seeing how that’s going to happen with one of these players being out of the lineup every game. How they’re going to balance it out remains to be seen (if, in fact, no more moves are coming) and it will be interesting to see how Shoppach performs in 2009, whether this off-season will come to represent his peak value or if 2008 was simply an appetizer for the main course that Show Pack has in store in 2009.

As an aside, this essentially means is that I can stop writing the piece that I was working on suggesting why Ricky Nolasco (FLA), Wandy Rodriguez (HOU), and Mike Pelfrey (NYM) would all be attractive trade candidates for the Indians to target in that their team would be in need of a catcher and each of them represented tangible upgrades (a few years away from FA) over the in-house back-end-of-the-rotation candidates.

Regardless, the Pavano signing looks to be it this off-season…so without further ado ladies and gentleman, YOUR 2009 Cleveland Indians!

Lazy Sunday Putting a Bow on DeRosa

OK, everyone…stop Googling George Kokinis for a moment, stop trying to become his “Facebook” friend, and join me in a little jaunt lovingly referred to as “Lazy Sunday”.
Without further introduction or ado, let’s get it on:

Starting at the top, Terry Pluto hits all of the high points of the DeRosa trade, many of which were addressed in the New Year’s Day post here, but laid out very nicely by Pluto. Interestingly, Pluto’s comment regarding the lower level prospects in the online piece to, “check Tony Lastoria's excellent farm system blog at www.indiansprospectsinsider.com” ended up on the cutting room floor for the print edition.

As a quick aside in something else that Terry gets into in his Sunday column having little to do with the Indians on the surface, isn’t it interesting how Browns’ fans are clamoring for Randy Lerner to hire a strong GM who establishes an organizational identity, then to give that GM the authority to hire a Head Coach who shares his philosophies? After Savage and Romeo parted on messy terms, it seems that everyone wants a GM and Head Coach on the same page to cultivate that organizational philosophy.
Sounds good, right?
Just a quick question – isn’t this what the Indians have? And isn’t it that arrangement that causes a segment of the fan base to complain about how Shapiro and Wedge are “joined at the hip” and “finish each other’s sentences like they’re reading from a script”? Ever hear the term “Wedgiro”?
Which is it Cleveland – if it’s good for the goose, doesn’t it stand to be good for the gander?

But I digress.
From a national perspective, Buster Olney has a bit on DeRosa, and his importance to the 2008 Chicago team, in a piece about how the Cubs are headed in the wrong direction with the moves they’ve made so far this off-season:
“One of those evaluators made the argument that DeRosa may have been the Cubs' best player last season. He finished third among the everyday players in on-base percentage, at .376, and was fourth in slugging percentage, at .481. He finished the season with a club-high 103 runs scored, partly because he's such a good baserunner. What he may have done best, however, was provide the Cubs average-to-above average defense at four different positions: second base, third base, left field and right field (he also played a game at first base and another at shortstop). If Aramis Ramirez came up sore, DeRosa could step in, and when Alfonso Soriano got hurt, DeRosa provided Lou Piniella flexibility to better cope with the problem, allowing him to shift DeRosa to the outfield and play somebody else in the infield. The Cubs are going to miss DeRosa in a big way next season.”

Here’s Baseball America’s take on the deal, calling DeRosa one of the top 2B in MLB and versatile enough to play multiple positions, while pointing out the possibility of netting the Indians a 1st Round draft pick when he leaves after 2009, depending upon whether he’s deemed to be a Type A or Type B Free Agent after the season.

From the Chicago perspective of the deal, Cubs’ GM Jim Hendry is saying that DeRosa was traded because he wanted “three, four, potentially five [left-handed hitters] on the field at the same time, then second base was an area we felt like we possibly could make a change.”
I’m not sure I get that from the sense that adding Aaron Miles as a switch hitter or giving more time to LH Mike Fontenot to replace the RH DeRosa makes the team better for 2009, but there’s the answer.

From the other paper in town, Gordon Wittenmyer isn’t buying that logic as a reason to make the deal and also thinks that DeRosa will be missed by the Cubs for 2009 more than they think. Wittenmyer thinks that between his versatility in the field (including the line “playing an exceptional third base” in the piece), his on-base ability, and his clubhouse presence, the loss of DeRosa will have a greater impact on the Cubs’ 2009 season than their Front Office thinks.

Interestingly, a lot of people see DeRosa’s departure from Chicago as a way for the Cubs to free up payroll to add Milton Bradley. Let’s see…getting rid of (quoting Wittenmyer here from the linked piece above) “one of the steadiest, most positive clubhouse influences in a room full of good chemistry, pro-attitude guys - with one of his greatest contributions being his willingness to draw the pregame media mobs off the shoulders of teammates on a regular basis in the cramped home clubhouse” to add…um, this guy?
Good luck with that Sweet Lou.

Finally from the Chicago perspective on the deal, is anyone else sick of seeing “DeRo” as the accepted nickname for DeRosa? Jim Hendry even refers to him by that unimaginative nickname…it’s kind of embarrassing.

Back to the reaction on the North Coast, in case you were hoping for another channeling of my inner Ken Tremendous again to put Sheldon Ocker in his place for suggesting that the Indians were going to be an incomplete team on Christmas Day, only to see the DeRosa trade happen 6 days later, let’s just say that this article on the DeRosa acquisition represents the last time that Ocker’s going to make an appearance on this page. He leads with “the Indians snagged their third baseman today, and never mind that he has played mostly second base the past two seasons” and I didn’t make it much past that.
If you did, you’re not aware of better beat writers that cover the Tribe.

In the vein of “better beat writers”, here’s Anthony Castrovince’s recap of the DeRosa deal as well as a “Season Preview” from him at the Official Site, which lays out (pretty accurately) what has happened and what it means for 2009. It’s still awfully early for this kind of preview piece (though it simply looks like one of a series that MLB.com is running for each team), but it effectively examines how much of the heavy lifting was done in the bullpen and why it was needed there the most.

Speaking of looking ahead to 2009, Tim Kurkjian of ESPN has a similar piece pegging the Indians as a potential team to watch in the coming year as he says, “they spent most of their money on Wood. But if he can be the healthy closer he was in Chicago all last year (the last pitch he threw was clocked at 97 mph), Carmona has a bounce-back season, they find another infielder and another starting pitcher, corner outfielders Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo continue to progress and Martinez and Hafner produce like they're supposed to, that hot finish by the Indians last season could be followed by a hot start in 2009.”
Infielder was checked off…now let’s spend the next 5 or so weeks trying to find that starting pitcher.

Elsewhere on these Interwebs, there’s a nice exchange regarding the 2009 Indians from Jay Levin of the LGT and Vince Grzegorek of Cleveland Scene Magazine, in which they cover topics from “Valbarfield” (an entity that looks unlikely now to be unleashed upon us) to whether or not Vince is on crack to expect a good season out of Anthony Reys.
Good stuff from two good writers.

On a programming note, Tony and I were happy to be joined by Michael Brantley’s agent Josh Kusnick, followed by minor-league RH starter Ryan Morris in this past week’s Monday edition of “Smoke Signals” (audio link here). Kusnick relayed a funny story about running into Shapiro at the Winter Meetings after the announcement of the Frank Gutz deal as Kusnick (who represents a number of Brewers’ minor leaguers) has a relationship with new Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, whose previous job was the Brewers’ scouting director, who acquired Frank the Tank in the deal. Kusnick said that Shapiro raved about how highly Michael Brantley was considered in the organization and that the Indians were very excited to have Brantley in the system. From an agent’s standpoint, Kusnick was thrilled with the Gutierrez deal as it removes a player in front of Brantley in the pecking order for the Indians’ OF and Kusnick re-asserted his position that Brantley would make it to Cleveland in 2009. Seeing as how Kusnick is Brantley’s agent, it’s not a surprising assertion; but the tone that Shapiro took with Kusnick (according to him) when discussing Brantley seem to indicate that Brantley figures very prominently into the Indians’ plans going forward.

In addition to Kusnick, we were joined by RH starter Ryan Morris, who figures to begin the 2009 season in the Kinston rotation at the tender age of 21. He provided some insight into the development of a pitcher through the lower levels of the minors, as adjustments and new pitches are the norm as players (who often were BMOC’s in High School or College) begin to trust their coaches and attempt to evolve as players to realize their MLB dream.

On the topic of the radio show, here’s the link from our conversation with the since-departed Jeff Stevens at the end of October. One of the funny things about the interview is that we (OK…I) threw in the standard Brandon Phillips question there at the end of the interview, with Stevens obliging me with a response – regardless of how many times he’s been asked that question. Now, with Stevens on the North Side of Chicago, the B-Phil question may be in his rearview mirror, but the question about being the principal in a trade for another 2B that not a lot of fans were happy to see leave may be in his future. Regardless, all the best to Stevens as he takes his MLB dreams north with him to Wrigleyville.

Finally on the radio show, Tony has lined up interviews with all three of the minor-league players involved in the DeRosa deal (Stevens, Archer, and Gaub) for our next show this Thursday. Stay tuned for that as talking to these young guys always sheds quite a bit of light on the business of baseball.

In an unrelated programming note, The MLB Network debuted on Thursday and is airing Ken Burns’ Baseball documentary every Tuesday at 8 PM if you’re looking for something to set your DVR for. The MLB Network looks pretty strong to date, pushing ESPN further into the background for me when it comes to quenching my thirst for baseball. Now if only Time Warner would update their programming guide so I knew what was on MLB Network or what was to come instead of the “NO DATA AVAILABLE” that keeps showing up.

Finally, something that was caught by serial poster Fios this past week has me more excited for a show on the Lifetime network since…well…ever. While I’m not entirely certain why Fios is privy to this information, it seems that Lifetime is starting a show called “The DietTribe”, a reality show that follows a group of friends as they all attempt to lose weight.

While the whole reality-show genre is one that I normally eschew and look down upon (I snubbed one of my college buddies for weeks when he asked me if I was into “The Biggest Loser”), I cannot wait to see this one. Obviously, my interest is likely to be limited to the comments section on the website (which I will use sporadically to present random thoughts about the Cleveland Indians…and encourage others to do the same), though I found out the other night that another member of the Teepee may have been privy to the fact that the show was starting prior to Fios pointing it out:

The DiaBride – “What are you giggling about?”
Me – “You’re not going to believe this – the Lifetime network has a show that follows a group of friends around as they all try to lose weight together. Get this – the name of it is…”
The DiaBride – “…The DietTribe. I already knew that.”
Me (incredulous) – “You KNEW that? How did you keep that under you hat or not make the correlation to the blog or at least the Indians?”
The DiaBride – “Because my mind does not immediately associate everything that I see, read, or casually observe to the Cleveland Indians.”
Me (after two beats) – “What’s that like?”

Regardless, here’s the link again to check out the comments board – which looks to have its first Indians-centric entry:

That, of course, was followed up by what looks to be (judging by the thumbs-up) by a very popular comment from another Tribe fan, who looks to be from Milwaukee.

I love it.
Premiere of “The DietTribe” tomorrow at 10 PM!
I’ll be there…what do you mean, “The Fiesta Bowl”?

Marking the New Year

The ball has dropped, the calendar has flipped, and the smoke has cleared to a degree on the New Year’s Eve move that saw the Indians acquire IF Mark DeRosa from the Chicago Cubs for three minor league pitchers. The move fits one of the remaining needs on the Indians’ roster for 2009 as DeRosa projects immediately into the infield mix, while also allowing newly acquired 2B Luis Valbuena more time to mature in AAA instead of being thrust immediately into a starting role or allowing the 2009 infield to include heavy doses of Jamey Carroll, Josh Barfield, or Andy Marte.

DeRosa arrives to Cleveland with one year left on his deal for $5.5M and with a reputation as a super-utility player with on-base skills and some pop in his bat. He grew up in the Braves organization, before making his way onto the Rangers, where he was given his first real chance to become a regular contributor at the age of 31 in 2006. After the 2006 season, DeRosa fled Arlington to sign with the Cubs, where he became a gap filler for the team, logging time at 2B (188 games over 2 years), RF (60 games over 2 years), 3B (59 games over 2 years), LF (28 games over 2 years), in addition to a rare game at 1B or SS.

According to numerous published reports, the Indians see DeRosa as their full-time 3B, replacing Casey Blake on the roster in more than just that regard as DeRosa is essentially the same type of player that Blake was in his unappreciated time with the Indians – one that can play wherever the team needs him most while providing steady, if unspectacular, numbers at the plate.

To wit, here are the lines for the last two years for DeRosa and Blake:
DeRosa 2007
.293 BA / .371 OBP / .420 SLG / .791 OPS with 28 2B, 10 HR, and 72 RBI in 502 AB

DeRosa 2008
.285 BA / .376 OBP / .481 SLG / .857 OPS with 30 2B, 21 HR, and 87 RBI in 505 AB

Blake 2007
.270 BA / .339 OBP / .437 SLG / .776 OPS with 36 2B, 18 HR, and 78 RBI in 588 AB

Blake 2008
.274 BA / .345 OBP / .463 SLG / .808 OPS with 36 2B, 21 HR, and 81 RBI in 536 AB

Pretty similar players, no?
DeRosa has better on-base skills than Blake, with a higher likelihood to take a walk (DeRosa had 127 BB in 118 fewer AB than Blake had in accumulating 103 in the last 2 years) and not much less power than Blake.

If there was a school of thought out there that Casey Blake coming back to the Indians was the right stop-gap move, Mark DeRosa joining the club trumps it. The main problem with bringing a player like Blake back was the financial commitment it was going to take (3 years) to get him to return to Cleveland when it was unnecessary for the club to lock down that role on the roster for that long given the acquisition of Luis Valbuena.

One of the other prevailing ideas about the Indians augmenting their infield was to Orioles’ 2B Brian Roberts to the club to improve the team’s overall infield and to add a player with high OBP to the top of the lineup. Here’s how Roberts fares against the numbers for DeRosa for the last 2 years (I’ll show DeRosa’s again for comparison’s sake):
DeRosa 2007
.293 BA / .371 OBP / .420 SLG / .791 OPS with 28 2B, 10 HR, and 72 RBI in 502 AB

DeRosa 2008
.285 BA / .376 OBP / .481 SLG / .857 OPS with 30 2B, 21 HR, and 87 RBI in 505 AB

Roberts 2007
.290 BA / .377 OBP / .432 SLG / .809 OPS with 42 2B, 12 HR, and 57 RBI in 621 AB

Roberts 2008
.296 BA / .378 OBP / .450 SLG / .828 OPS with 51 2B, 9 HR, and 57 RBI in 611 AB

Roberts’ game relies more heavily on speed than that of DeRosa, but the on-base skills are similar, and that is what the Indians were really targeting Roberts for to fill the hole in the #2 spot in the everyday lineup. Considering that the Orioles were allegedly asking for Fausto Carmona and Asdrubal Cabrera for 1 year of Roberts, how do you feel about getting a comparable player for 1 year for Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, and Chris Archer?

To that end, the Indians gave up some arms in their organization to net DeRosa, with the most notable name being Stevens, who projects as a potential late-inning option in MLB and is ready to play a role in an MLB bullpen in 2009. But the Indians, to their credit, dealt from depth again as the names in front of or on par with Stevens who figure to start the season in Columbus (Meloan, Miller) remain in the system and ready at beck-and-call when needed for the parent club. Giving up Stevens hurts in the long-term, given that DeRosa is only under contract for one year, but due to the organizational depth at reliever, the dearth of infield options, and the alleged demands of the Orioles for Roberts, it’s a move that you make.

Beyond Stevens, I’m not going to pretend to know too much about Gaub and Archer, so I’ll let Tony Lastoria’s scouting reports on all three (that he had compiled for his annual prospect book) clue you in on those two. Just know that neither has thrown an inning past Lake County, so if the Indians do ever regret giving up either, it’s not going to be anytime in the near future.

So now with all of that out there, let’s get to the idea that the Indians plan on playing DeRosa primarily as the 3B and plan on keeping Peralta at SS and Cabrera at 2B. Given that these 3 players are going to fill 3 infield spots in the lineup, regardless of where they’re playing, it would only make sense to put them in the strongest defensive alignment possible and, while Cubs’ sources have listed 3B as DeRosa’s best position, keeping Cabrera away from SS remains the elephant in the room. Perhaps the Indians feel that Peralta’s transition to 3B was not going to go well or that DeRosa and Garko on the right side of the infield was not an ideal alignment. Regardless of the thought process, I think that DeRosa playing 3B only delays the inevitable move of Peralta to 3B, if only for a year. There’s a chance that the Indians could give Peralta some time at 3B in 2009, because of the versatility of DeRosa, Cabrera, and Carroll – though I would think that the transition would be made over a longer period of time than that, perhaps in anticipation of him moving to 3B in 2010.

For now, though, it keeps Peralta at SS and Cabrera at 2B with Carroll as the Futility Infielder and buries Andy Marte deeper on the bench (if he’s even on the team in 2009, though it’s not like DeRosa took his spot on the roster) and clouds Josh Barfield’s future with the organization as Barfield is only able to play 2B and the acquisition of Luis Valbuena precludes Barfield from playing 2B in Columbus.

So maybe more moves are afoot to fill that last need in the rotation as DeRosa’s acquisition is precisely what the Indians were looking for after the first two moves of the off-season. They’ve augmented the bullpen by adding a closer (Wood) and depth (Joe Smith), they’ve shored up the infield for 2009 (DeRosa) and added quality depth at the upper levels of the minors in the middle of their infield (Valbuena) for beyond 2009 and they’ve done all of this while trading only Franklin Gutierrez, Jeff Stevens, and two low-A pitchers.

They have addressed their needs through FA and by dealing from depth in the organization (young OF and young relievers) to fill holes that were identified as problems for 2009. The losses of Gutierrez and Stevens don’t affect the 2009 club that drastically and the players that were acquired for them change the face of the club quite significantly.
Right now, the Indians are looking at a pretty-fleshed out 25-man roster:
Starting Lineup
Martinez
Garko
Cabrera
Peralta
DeRosa
Choo
Sizemore
Francisco
Hafner

Bench
Shoppach
Carroll
Marte
Dellucci

Rotation
Lee
Carmona
Reyes
Laffey
Sowers

Bullpen
Wood
Lewis
Perez
Betancourt
Kobayashi
Smith
Jackson

The starting 9 and the bullpen look pretty set (remember, I see Jackson as the long man in the bullpen), with some players that still represent “depth” in the organization to perhaps add that middle-of-the-rotation starter that remains on the “To-Do” List. The Indians have filled most of their holes without firing their potential biggest bullet in the trade market (Show Pack) or compromising all of their MLB-ready depth that could serve as throw-ins for a deal (Sowers, Barfield, Marte, etc.) in that they would fill out a roster at the league minimum.

With the DeRosa trade, the Indians filled an enormous hole on their 2009 team, laying waste to any idea that the team was gearing up for 2010 when the likes of Matt LaPorta, Luis Valbuena, Dave Huff, or Michael Brantley may play more important roles, if they don’t make it topside at some point this season. The $5.5M they’ll spend on DeRosa likely means that they money that they had to spend is gone ($16M on Wood and DeRosa to come from Wrigleyville) and that a starter (if added) is either coming via trade or from the bargain bin (which, to me, is no better than simply going with the in-house options). The $5.5M they’ll pay him will be $500,000 more than Casey Blake will earn with Dodgers (plus it will buy DeRosa’s wife some nice things to wear), but unlike Blake, the financial commitment runs only through 2009, giving the Indians’ youngsters time to develop and ease onto the club this year or in 2010 instead of being thrust onto the club ill-prepared out of Spring Training.

All told, the Indians crossed off another off-season need for the 2009 club by adding a versatile veteran to their infield and to the top of their order while not compromising the 2009 roster in terms of who they gave up and retaining financial flexibility beyond this year with DeRosa’s contract running only through this season.

42 Days Until Pitchers and Catchers Report!