The Axe Man Cometh

To date, I’ve held off on any great pronouncement trumpeting the arrival of Carlos Santana as there have been enough of those to go around and I prefer to take on the angles that generally aren’t covered by the mainstream media, among other places. Yes, we got him for just Lacey Cake and yes, he looks a lot like El Capitan (right down to the number on his back). Yes, the way that he wears his Indians’ uniform is the sloppiest since Jelly Belliard and yes, he shares a name with a well-known guitarist.
These things we’ve known for quite some time...

However, now that he’s arrived and since we can put away the Major League Equivalent calculator, we’re finally able to watch Santana face MLB pitching and fill the batter’s box from both sides. The obvious first impression is that he has looked the part of a stud hitter, posting some of the better AB against Cy Strasburg and more than holding his own since his arrival. After Thursday’s game, he’s posted a batting line to date of .272 BA / .385 OBP / .546 SLG / .931 OPS. So even with the small sample size alarms going off as loudly as they can, yeah…his bat has been as good as advertised.

Santana’s presence in the lineup has revealed two things about him, things that we’ve heard about him since he arrived in the organization – that he has a tremendous batting eye and that, when he finds his pitch to hit, he makes solid contact and drives the ball. While the translations from Minor League numbers are still on the fuzzy side, perhaps it’s better to take a look at Santana’s tendencies at the plate to see if his batting eye and his ability to pick a pitch to put a good swing out have arrived with him from the Minors.

Even in the early going, his numbers have borne much of what we’ve heard about him out as he’s walked in 15.4% of his plate appearances, outpacing every Indians’ regular in that category (the two league leaders in the AL who have enough plate appearances to qualify are Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis, who have each walked in 17% of their plate appearances) and he has struck out in only 7.7% of his plate appearances, just twice in his first 26 PA. On a team like the Indians, where swings and misses are common (every Tribe player with more than 150 plate appearances has struck out at least 17% of the time), Santana’s selectivity is a welcome respite. This particular percentage may be unsustainable (you’ll see why below), but the more important thing to note here is that Santana’s percentage of strikeouts to walks (right now, it’s 2 K to 4 BB) is the one to watch and be impressed by.

Additionally, on a team that is sorely lacking in the power department in terms of extra-base hits, Santana’s 4 extra-base hits in just 26 plate appearances (and it should have been 5 had he not slid over 2B on Wednesday night) put him at an extra-base % of 15.4%, infinitesimal sample size duly noted. To go further on that, Santana has 5 hits in 6 games and 4 of those 6 hits are for extra bases (3 2B and a HR...and again, it should have been 5 of 6 after Wednesday night), meaning that the book on Santana – that he drives the ball when he finds his pitch to hit – has carried through in his first week in MLB.

While it remains to be seen if The Axe Man can continue this early success (and really, we’re just talking about 6 games here), the important point to make is that these numbers are simply a continuation from what Santana has been accomplishing over the past two years in the Minors.
Just check these out...
Percentage of Walks per Plate Appearance (MLB League Average: 8.9%)
2010 – Cleveland: 15.4% (4 BB in 26 PA)
2010 – Columbus: 18.3% (45 BB in 246 PA)
2009 – Akron: 16.8% (90 BB in 535 PA)

Percentage of Strikeouts per Plate Appearance (MLB League Average: 17.4%)
2010 – Cleveland: 7.7% (2 K in 26 PA)
2010 – Columbus: 15.8% (39 K in 246 PA)
2009 – Akron: 15.5% (83 K in 535 PA)

Ratio of Strikeouts to Walks (MLB League Average: 1.95)
2010 – Cleveland: 0.50 (2 K to 4 BB)
2010 – Columbus: 0.86 (39 K to 45 BB)
2009 – Akron: 0.92 (83 K to 90 BB)

Percentage of Extra Base Hits for All Plate Appearances (MLB League Average: 7.8%)
2010 – Cleveland: 15.4% (4 XBH in 26 PA)
2010 – Columbus: 11.3% (28 XBH in 246 PA)
2009 – Akron: 10.3% (55 XBH in 535 PA)

Percentage of Base Hits for Extra Bases (MLB League Average: 34%)
2010 – Cleveland: 67% (4 XBH among 6 H)
2010 – Columbus: 45.2% (28 XBH among 62 H)
2009 – Akron: 44.4% (55 XBH among 124 H)

Other than a preternaturally low K rate and the absurdly high percentage of extra base hits among all hits in the early going, what he’s been doing in his first week in Cleveland falls pretty much in line with what he's done in Columbus and Akron. While the mistake is to assume that Santana can simply continue this torrid pace of hitting that he's enjoyed for the past 1 ½ years, the realization that adjustments will be made to him may scale back some of these numbers in the short-term. However, the track record is there for him in the Minors to excel at a level that he’s sustained since the beginning of 2008 (and his 2008 cumulative numbers fall in line with those above) so his adjustment period at the plate will be interesting to watch...assuming there is one.

Of course, the “alleged” reason that Santana stayed down in the Minors until mid-June was that his defense and his handling of a pitching staff needed tweaking. All of that may be true to some degree (and the disappointments abound on the Clippers’ pitching staff as evidence to back it up), but him staying in Columbus was an issue with the Indians ability to control Santana for an extra year and delay his arbitration years by keeping him in AAA. This is old news, I know, but to listen to the Mainstream Media and even the Indians’ broadcasters, who ignore this point and attempt to crucify the organization for keeping Santana down “when he was clearly ready” means that those people simply aren’t paying attention to the fact that the Indians aren’t the only team employing this strategy as Strasburg and Stanton arrived for the Nationals and Marlins, nearly simultaneously to Santana.

Off that soapbox, what can be made of Santana’s defense and handling of the pitching staff to date?
Outside of getting plowed over by Adam Dunn because he was wandering around home plate on Sunday, Santana has certainly looked like he’s holding his own back there. He’s thrown out 2 of the 6 runners who have attempted to steal on him, keeping with the percentages that he’s put forth for the past two seasons in the Minors as he had thrown out 23% of would-be basestealers in Columbus this year, after gunning down 30% in Akron last year.

As for handling the pitching staff, the staff's ERA pitching to Santana is 5.20, striking out 27 and walking only 9 in the first 5 games that Santana’s been behind the dish. What those numbers mean is anyone’s guess and is just as dependent on who’s pitching (Tony Sipp, please pick up the white courtesy phone) as who’s catching at this point. All of the defensive idiosyncrasies will bear themselves out over the course of this season and the coming seasons; but for now, he has the opportunity to learn in MLB, with a number of pitchers that he figures to receive for the foreseeable future.

Carlos Santana has arrived and his first week has shown that he is indeed a special talent, capable of making a significant impact for the Indians as he begins his career as The Axe Man in the Rock and Roll Capital of the World.

Tomahawks A.S. (After Strasburg)

Is there a way for us to adjust our calendar to re-classify everything that happened before Sunday as “Before Strasburg” and everything hereafter as “After Strasburg” because the way that the media, both local and national, handled Sunday's game, you would have thought that Strasburg was going to wear flowing white robes and sandals to the mound instead of a uniform and cleats. None of this is Strasburg's fault obviously, and I appreciate an exciting prospect story probably more than anyone, but the 24/7 media (particularly one that calls Bristol home) has a way of overexposing these kind of events to the point that it becomes difficult to be excited because you're being TOLD to be excited instead of just letting your own emotions take hold.

That said, I had butterflies driving on the Inner Belt on Sunday afternoon heading down to the game and couldn't wait to see Cy Strasburg myself. Before getting into this Strasburg thing however, let's get some Tomahawks in the air to see if we can get them to land on that spot on the mound that the Indians' ground crew should somehow name after Steve Strasburg.

Get 'em in the air...
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As the local media takes their swipes at the Indians for only being able to draw people to the ballpark to see an opposing pitcher, perhaps something has been missed in terms of placing the proper context of the 2010 season against recent seasons. Much has swirled around that this is rock-bottom and that THIS is the worst Indians' team people have seen in X amount of years and that the talent on this team simply isn't there as it has been in years past.

Check this...
Cleveland Indians After 62 Games
2010: 25-37 (10.5 games back)
2009: 27-35 (7.0 games back)
2008: 28-34 (7.5 games back)

No, seriously.
As much hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth that's been happening, the current Indians are 2 games worse at this point than the 2009 team and 3 games worse than the 2008 team. Lest you forget, both of those teams had reigning Cy Young Award winners and each season started with the expectation that the Indians would compete for, if not win, the AL Central title and more.

The 2008 team was 62 games removed from the 2007 ALCS, with CC and Lee in their rotation and was 28-34 at this point. That 2009 team that had added Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa in the off-season to make one last push at it was 27-35 at this point.
This team, with few expectations and disappointment everywhere on the roster is 25-37.

That's not brought up to point out how the current team is overachieving (they're not) or to assert that there's more much more talent on the 2010 club than they're getting credit for (there's some, but it's still a roster in flux); rather, it's meant to point out how absolutely soul-crushing the starts for last two years have been for this team and how those two records shown above from 2008 and 2009 are the VERY reason that this team is where it is today.

Is it at rock-bottom?
It depends on your definition, but more importantly, your feelings on 2010 reveal how you contextualize disappointment in a team. Perhaps 2010 is the low point or brings to a head the failures of the last two years with the team on the field being the constant reminder. However, in the context of what was expected in 2008 and 2009 against what transpired on the field, 2010 ranks pretty far down in the category of disappointment. This season has arrived as a result of the previous two years and the performances of the players acquired over the past two years (plus those already in the system, both in the Majors and the Minors) will determine how quickly (or slowly) this team makes it back to some level of contention. Regardless of that timeframe, to characterize 2010 as the ultimate disappointment and as the worst year in recent memory does not put the horrifying disappointments (and the dominoes that fell as a result of those disappointments) into proper perspective.

Has watching the 2010 team been difficult to watch?
At times...absolutely, but certainly no more difficult than watching teams that were built to win RIGHT NOW lose game after game (for a myriad of reasons) and sink lower in the standings, as the Indians did in 2008 and 2009. When things went wrong to start the last two years, the idea that the team would turn it around because of the talent on hand lent some level of optimism for near-term success and while that optimism may be further out in the distance, I would say that the Indians acted decisively to make major changes to their roster (whether you agree with them or not) instead of simply trying to squeeze one last bit of success (however unlikely it seemed) out of a team that hadn't won consistently in two years. Whether anything positive comes out of that decisiveness remains to be seen, but to say that 2010 is as bad as it gets comes only if you're blocking out what happened over the past two Aprils, Mays, and Junes.

At the end of the day, it becomes about expectations versus results – 2008 and 2009 were wildly more disappointing (and should have been more difficult to watch) because MLB-proven talent and mature players were losing at the same clip that the young talent on hand in 2010 is putting forth – and whether that makes you feel better or worse about 2010 depends upon how you contextualize your disappointment in the team.
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Back to the hot topic of the weekend, despite spending Sunday roasting in the hot Cleveland sun (which are not three words you see strung together too often) and me forgetting that a day in the bleachers at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario regularly turns my skin red, the pain on the tops of my knees and top of my head (where a proud community of hair once resided) is a small price to pay to watch Steve Strasburg in Cleveland in the Tribe Social Deck.

My brother and I arrived down there about 12:30 (for the 1:00 game) and proceeded to Will Call, where our tix were waiting for us...with tickets for what must have been about 2,000 other people. After a Colt McCoy sighting (by the way, he's my size, plus about 25 lbs...and I'm 5'10”, $1.50 soaking wet), the marvelous Rob Campbell of the Indians located our tix for us and we made our way into the Social Deck area in the bleachers.

Upon arrival, we grabbed some Summer Shandys (Shandies?) and staked out a spot with my friend Craig Calcaterra of Circling the Bases, Joel Hammond of Crain's Cleveland, and Ed Carroll of Deep Left Field. Craig has already posted a terrific blow-by-blow of the game (to which I would like to say...“this”) as he details the excitement over “Strasmas”, including the guy behind us who was heckling Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn accidentally lowering the boom on The Axe Man, and Strasburg's issues with the mound.

Going to the game, I wondered how the home crowd would treat Strasburg if he started mowing down hitters at a Kerry Woodsian clip, not quite sure if Indians' “fans” would be cheering him on to strike out Indians' hitters or if there would be that feeling of dread/excitement that was prevalent in the Galarraga Non-Perfect game. The question was never answered as the Indians worked up his pitch count with Hafner and Santana putting up solid AB against Jesus Strasburg and the rest of the lineup looking like...well, like the Pirates did in Strasburg's debut. By the time the grounds crew came out the second time (this time not carrying the giant watering can that they had used the first time), the crowd had turned on Strasburg for delaying the game and acting, some perceived, as a prima donna, particularly because the second visit from the grounds crew came after consecutive walks.

By the time that Strasburg had left, Trevor Crowe essentially put any thought of the Indians keeping it close out of the question by taking the worst route to a ball that I've ever seen by a MLB player (and we had the perfect view, so that is not hyperbole) in person as his unsurprising defensive deficiencies led to the opening of the dam, with Tony Sipp making sure the spigot remained on for the Nats until the end of the game.

All told, Strasburg was impressive with his lighting up of the radar gun and his “drop off the table” curveball, but the most enjoyable part of the day (which was purported to have the potential to be “history in the making”) was watching baseball with friends who like baseball on a warm summer afternoon on the North Coast.

Steve Strasburg or no Steve Strasburg, I'll take that any time I can...
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Speaking of warm summer days, while I'm not sure that anyone even cares about this, the race to be named “Beer for the Summer” has been whittled down to three. After having dinner last weekend at Fat Head's in North Olmsted and enjoying some fine pilsners, I decided that a pilsner would be a suitable choice for the summer months.

One of the pilsners that I enjoyed at Fat Head's (Sunshine Pils by Troeg's) immediately vaulted to the top of the list, but I enjoyed a couple of Lagunitas Pils' throughout the course of the weekend and located some Victory Prima Pils on a trip to Heinen's on Sunday, so the race is on between those three for the vaunted (?) spot in one man's quest for the ultimate summer beer, circa 2010.

Having located a local source for each, let the games begin...
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Moving on to more relevant matters, with the recent promotion of OF Jordan Henry to Akron, that means that three of the 2009 draft picks have already made it to AA, almost exactly a year after each was drafted. Henry joins Jason Kipnis (2nd Round), who has played 2 games in Akron and Alex White (1st Round) who has started 4 games for the Aeros already. Henry (7th Round) figures to make his debut soon and will likely join Kipnis (now a 2B) up the middle of the diamond to back Alex White (1.47 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19 K, 13 BB in 30 2/3 IP over his first 4 starts in Akron) for the rest of the summer at Canal Park.

Obviously, these guys were all college players and Kipnis (23), Henry (22), and White (21) are still just getting their feet wet in AA, but it continues the trend of the Indians pushing their prospects up the organizational ladder much more quickly than they had in the past.

It would seem that the Indians are loading up, as much as possible, their top two farm teams to line these players up (while competing at a “high” level of competition) for Cleveland. While some people don't want to hear about prospects and “what could be”, with the influx of talent that has come from outside of the organization because of trades, it is positive to see players drafted by the Indians as recently as last year move so quickly through the organization to ascend to the upper levels.
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Speaking of prospects (and it seems like I have a lot recently), since the Cliff Lee trade talks are going to dominate the national coverage for a while, let's revisit the CP-to-Philly move one more time as SI.com's Jon Heymann puts a bow on it when he talks about how Clifton Phifer is going to be traded at some point in the next 6 weeks:
Lee's value is pretty well set, having been traded twice in the past 12 months. In July 2009, the Indians dealt him to the Phillies for four solid-to-good good prospects and last December the Phils sent him to Seattle for three prospects of similar ilk. The value of top-flight prospects is so high now that last year the Red Sox turned down a straight-up offer of Lee-for Clay Buchholz, even before Buchholz raised his worth by being Boston's most consistent starter early this season.

This is not to make another assertion that it's too early to judge the Lee deal for the Indians, but rafter to rebuff the idea that the Indians are merely given free reign over the selection of prospects, even it it does involve 1 ½ years of the reigning Cy Young Award winner. According to Heymann (and it was reported other places at the time), “turned down a straight-up offer of Lee-for Clay Buchholz” and the Indians likely entertained various packages before deciding to accept the offer on the table for Lee and shipping CP to Philly.
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That being said, now that we're “After Strasburg” and before the real Trading Season starts, the Indians look to finish out their homestand on a high note as they attempt to slow the suddenly resurgent Mets down while showcasing one Jake Westbrook to the Mets' brass on Thursday night.

Pitching In On a Lazy Sunday

As I ready myself for Steve Strasburg’s visit to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario today, let’s get going on this Lazy Sunday with the hope that some Carlos Santana jerseys will join this collection of jerseys at the Merchandise shops…with a hat tip to Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk (who will be joining me today on the Tribe Social Deck aka “Mom’s Basement”) this afternoon. While much of the national focus is going to be on Strasburg and whether he’s going to throw a perfect game or a no-hitter or strike out all 27 hitters, perhaps we’ll take the opportunity to talk about pitchers...except it will be about the ones that don the Chief.

And with that, we’re off…
While this 4-game winning streak may be coloring my outlook a little bit and as absurd as it sounds when looking at the Indians’ overall record, the Indians’ pitching staff has emerged as a great source for optimism for the Erie Warriors. The old news is that Tampa Bay cast-off “The Fury” has an ERA of 3.59 in mid-June (good for 23rd best in the AL) with a WHIP of 1.35 (good for 35th in the AL) in his rookie year and even him performing at some level below that, the Indians may have found a middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation cog for the team (at a reasonable cost) for the foreseeable future. While Talbot is a nice story and certainly is a player to root for, the greater development has been among the two players in the rotation who legitimately project as top-of-the-rotation arms – Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson.

Just to reiterate, we are just in mid-June here, but it would seem that the Indians are seeing the emergence of two potential dominant front-of-the-rotation RHP. While this would seem to be premature to label Justin Masterson as such (more on him in a minute), let’s realize that after Carmona’s performance last night (in which he faced one batter above the minimum throwing not to Mike Redmond, but to his assumed batterymate for the next 5 years or so), his ERA has dipped to 3.23 (13th in the AL) and his WHIP has dropped to 1.24 (22nd in the AL) and he’s trending in the right direction, posting a 2.72 ERA with 30 K to 18 BB over his last 8 starts.

Most impressive about Carmona’s rebirth is the manner in which he’s dominating opposing batters, using an economy of pitches to induce soft contact (his 13.1% Line Drive Percentage is 3rd lowest in the AL) and inducing ground balls at a 55.5% clip (4th in the AL, behind leader Justin Masterson) which is still below his 2007 level of inducing ground balls on 64.3% of the balls put in play against him, which was the highest GB% in AL. Perhaps The Faustastic One (the one from 2007) never fully re-emerges, but Fausto Carmona – the more composed, more efficient, more complete pitcher that has been on display this season – remains a pitcher capable of fronting a rotation, something that he has the capability to do in Cleveland through the 2014 season.

Then there is the curious case of Justin Masterson…
As he morphs back and forth, Jekyll and Hyde style from Justin Consistent (say it out loud to realize what I’m getting at here) or Justin Credible, he remains an enigma. While the debate over whether he belongs in the rotation or bullpen is going to rage for some time (with the people “ahead” in the argument being the ones who can clearly back up their position by his most recent start – so the “keep him in the rotation” crowd is ahead), his success is largely determined by his ability to throw his fastball for strikes. This is not ground-breaking stuff (for anyone), but the fact that he really throws 3 pitches effectively means that his success (or lack thereof) is largely dependent on his ability to throw his fastball for strikes, setting up his sinker and his slider.

While that may be true of most pitchers, compare the data from Masterson’s start against the Red Sox this week to a game against the Orioles on May 14th, when he gave up 6 ER, 8 H, and 5 BB in 5 1/3 IP:
Vs. BOS (6-9-10)
Sinker – 55 thrown / 34 strikes (61.8%) / 4 swinging strikes (7.27%)
4-seam fastball – 37 thrown / 27 strikes (72.97%) / 3 swinging strikes (8.11%)
Slider – 18 thrown / 14 strikes (77.78%) / 3 swinging strikes (16.67%)

Vs. BAL (5-14-10)
Sinker – 31 thrown / 19 strikes (61.29%) / 2 swinging strikes (6.45%)
4-seam fastball – 39 thrown / 20 strikes (51.28%) / 0 swinging strikes (0%)
Slider – 29 thrown / 19 strikes (65.52%) / 6 swinging strikes (20.69%)
Change-Up – 8 thrown / 4 strikes (50%) / 1 swinging strike (12.5%)

The numbers for the sinker and the slider are remarkably similar, but the big difference is Masterson’s ability to throw that fastball for strikes. When he does, as he did against the Red Sox (nearly 75% of the time), he’s effective and can utilize his secondary pitches more than when he’s not throwing that fastball consistently for strikes, with the Orioles game (just over 50% of his fastballs were strikes) being the obvious example.

Maybe the Indians did find a mechanical flaw in Justin Credible’s delivery and tweaked it (and we sure are hearing a lot of “he’s staying on top of the ball”) that have contributed to his newfound success (1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .551 OPS against in his last three starts), something that will continue. If they have, the Indians have the potential to have two big, RH arms at the top of their rotation, inducing ground balls at an absurd rate and flummoxing opposing batters. Whether Masterson is able to continue his success in the rotation remains to be seen, but his last three starts show why the Indians are so willing to give him that long leash in the rotation as his repertoire has the ability to dominate good lineups (like the Red Sox, whose lineup included 5 LH hitters when he mowed his way through them), but the ability to repeat that success seems to be tied to his ability to repeat his delivery.

That being said, he remains a favorite among the statheads as he racks up the K’s and the groundball outs when he’s on (and FanGraphs goes in-depth as to how good he really was against the Red Sox, going so far as to wonder who had a better outing during the week – Masterson or...wait for it, Strasburg. No, seriously), so the Indians have the “opportunity” of a lost season to see if he can find the consistency that has eluded him in the rotation.

Watching Carmona and Masterson assert themselves over the last two months (Carmona) and two weeks (for Justin Credible) brings something that reader Kevin Holz wrote into focus. He wrote, “is it just me or are you placing more emphasis on seeing Masterson or Carmona continue to develop (or re-develop in Fausto’s case) than on anything else. If those two guys can develop into top of the rotation homeboys then that seems infinitely more important than a simple W.”

In this lost season of 2010, where development and looking past 2010 has become the focus, Kevin is absolutely right. As frustrating as a Rafael Perez outing might be or as much venom has been thrown in the direction of Rusty Branyan, there is no greater need for this team going forward than legitimate top-of-the-rotation arms. If Carmona and Masterson can assert themselves as such (and each has the repertoire to do it), then 2010 becomes a season that provides the bedrock for the organization, with both Carmona and Masterson under club control through 2014.

Masterson dominating his former team brings an interesting sidebar to the 2010 season as the trades of last July have been analyzed, re-analyzed, and condemned in some circles, that it is easy to brush aside a performance like that of Masterson. In fact, the Victor deal has taken a back seat this year as there has been SO much talk about evaluating the Lee deal, be it to label Jason Donald a “future Utility IF” (and I’d like a word with anyone who thinks that about Donnie Baseball) or bemoan the fact that Lou Marson is already destined for a back-up position (not realizing that he’s already trade bait, seeing as how he currently ranks 3rd in MLB by gunning down 38% of would be base stealers...a stat that I’m sure is not lost on the Red Sox), or point to Carlos Carrasco’s inconsistency (although his last outing had him going 8 IP giving up 0 ER and 3 H with 9 K) while pointing out that Jason Knapp has yet to throw a pitch in the Cleveland organization, that the haul of Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price often gets overlooked.

Before getting into those other two, can we just acknowledge that Lee’s going to get traded again?
When he does, there will be specific players that will have been moved for him with 1 ½ years remaining on his deal, 1 year remaining on his deal, and ½ year remaining on his deal, plus whatever draft picks his acquiring team will get when Lee leaves via FA to go to the Bronx (if they’re not the acquiring team). Thus, we’ll be able to stack up what the Indians got for him against what the Phillies got for him and what the Mariners get for him into eternity

This is brought up to point out that it is still far too early to judge the Lee deal (as much as everyone wants to), particularly in the context of the fact that he’s about to join his 4th team in one calendar year. However, it is equally early to judge the Martinez deal...although that trade seems to be bearing some immediate fruit.

Beyond Masterson, the Indians received the much-ballyhooed Nick Hagadone, who has now ascended to Akron and has put up cumulative 2010 numbers of a 2.86 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP with 57 K to 38 BB in 50 2/3 IP. While his control remains somewhat of an issue, he is a LH power pitcher that projects either to the front of the rotation or the back end of the bullpen. While projections are just dreams and wishes (paging Atom Miller), Hagadone has gained the attention of scouts by still averaging nearly a K per inning since his promotion to AA. How quickly he moves in the system will remain a point of interest as he is 24 years old and fills an obvious void in the organization as a LH power arm.

Hagadone’s journey and possible destination is well-noted and well-documented, while the same can’t be said for the 3rd pitcher involved in the Martinez deal – Bryan Price. I’m not sure how many people realize this, but Price was the highest draft selection among the three pitchers acquired (#45 overall to Hagadone’s #55 overall and Masterson's #71 overall) with the biggest signing bonus among the 3 pitchers.

Currently, he sits in the bullpen in Akron and has struck out 30 hitters while walking just 5 in the 25 innings that he’s worked for the Aeros. This is his first real venture into the bullpen as the Red Sox worked him almost exclusively as a starter in 2009 and the Indians have shown a sudden prescience for converting some of these MiLB starters to relievers in the hopes of FINALLY building a home-grown (and effective) bullpen, so don’t be surprised if Bryan Price’s name starts being bandied about as a legitimate bullpen option, perhaps as early as late this year.

All told, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility that the Indians have all 3 of these pitchers on their staff (in some capacity) in 2011, a year-and-a-half after the Victor trade. All of them being strikeout pitchers (something that was lacking in the organization previously, if you hadn't noticed), all of them under club control for the next 4 to 6 years (or longer, depending upon when Hagadone and Price arrive), and all of them being 25-years-old or younger means that the Indians did add projectable high-level arms into their organization that was lacking them. Whether any or all of them make an impact remains to be seen, but the return from the Martinez trade plays a large role in the whole “Layers of Arms” (not to be confused with the now-defunct “Waves of Arms” strategy) that the Indians have taken in all of these trades over the last 2+ years.

Regardless, the jury is still out on both the Lee and Martinez rades and will remain out, regardless of how quickly anybody wants to deride it or chalk it up to malfeasance. If you remember, by the end of 2004 – 2 ½ years after Colon was dealt – the Indians had “enjoyed” an OPS of .556 from Brandon Phillips in 136 MLB games, a 4.88 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP from Cliff Lee in 44 starts, and had received 159 plate appearances from Grady Sizemore.

Again, that was 2 ½ years AFTER Bartolo Colon was dealt and the Indians’ return for Colon looked like it was lacking in a return on investment. Is this pointed out to justify the Sabathia deal, or the Lee deal, or the Martinez deal? Absolutely not, it’s meant simply to put the timeframe of evaluating these trades into the proper context by reminding everyone of the Colon deal, which looks fabulous in hindsight but lacked immediate results...or even results 2 ½ years after the fact.

Speaking of trades (and ones that are probably coming), in case you were wondering how seriously the Indians should consider retaining Jake Westbrook through the end of the season with the rationale being that even if he leaves, they’ll still get some draft pick compensation, realize that Westbrook is not currently designated as even a Type B Free Agent (due to his injuries limiting his past few years) and the Indians would not receive any draft pick compensation (as of right now) if Westbrook were to stay with the team through the season and leave via Free Agency this Fall/Winter.

That could be subject to change, but while the Cardinals seem to have filled their need for a starter as they inked Jeff Suppan (although it remains to be seen how that will work out), it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Indians get with their veteran players as, you may not remember this, but Mark DeRosa was dealt on June 27th of last year, so if you think that the Indians are going to wait to make moves here, you’re mistaken...

Speaking of DeRosa, does anyone else marvel that the Indians were able to turn 3 months of him into what looks like their Future Closer (who probably should be their Present Closer) in Chris F. Perez and into Jess Todd, who is now sitting on an ERA of 3.58 in Columbus after a rough start to the year, striking out more than a batter an inning in AAA?

For years, the Indians were lambasted for “not developing a homegrown closer” or for not “being able to promote legitimate relief arms” (neither of which are incorrect) and now the Indians seem to be sitting on a bounty of them, largely because of making trades like the DeRosa one that netted them what looks to be a “homegrown closer” (kind of) and a potentially legitimate relief arm less than a year after the DeRosa deal.

While the Blake deal has been getting so much attention this week (and rightfully so as I prepare myself to see “The Axe Man” in person for the first time this afternoon), but the DeRosa deal could go down as an equally impressive heist.

How many of those can be pulled off in the next 6 weeks or so will be interesting to watch as Austin Kearns is sure to generate some interest (even if Terry Pluto tells us that the Indians are interested in keeping him) and should be moved in the next 6 weeks, despite my earlier assertions that he should be retained. Additionally, if the Angels are in the market for a 1B (and their DH situation has been awful as well all season), I happen to know a guy that The DiaTot (adamantly) refers to as “Muscle” Branyan who might fit the bill. They may not simply want a rent-a-player, but to that I would add that…wait for it…don’t forget about Branyan’s 2011 club option. Anaheim, we’ll be expecting a call…

Regardless of how the Trading Season shakes up, during a week in which the White Flag has gone up over the South Side of Chicago (and do you think that they're regretting trading those prospects for Peavy now), it now seems apparent that 3 teams in the AL Central are in the midst of rebuilds, and the Indians’ effort actually looks to be ahead of the not-yet-started process in Chicago and the interminable “Process” in Kansas City.

On the topic of Kansas City, here’s a fantastic piece by Rob Neyer on how watching what the Royals do over the next 6 weeks will be the most telling actions/non-actions that their Front Office can do:
So what should the Royals do? Podsednik’s played decently this season. At third base (Gordon’s old position), Alberto Callaspo has played decently. In right field, David DeJesus has played better than decently. Here's the thing, though: If the Royals are somehow competitive in 2012, none of those guys will be significant contributors; their value will probably never be higher than it is today (or in a few weeks, when contending teams are a little more eager to make deals).

The interesting line to me is “if the Royals are somehow competitive in 2012, none of these guys will be significant contributors”, which can be applied to the likes of Branyan, Kearns, Westbrook, Wood, and Peralta. What the Indians’ Front Office has shown (unlike the Royals in recent years) is that they’re unafraid to make decisions that are wildly unpopular and that weaken the team in the short term because the long term vision is in place.

While that “long term vision” still looks a little fuzzy at times in a season like this one, which has certainly felt like rock-bottom more than a few times, on a day like today when Carlos Santana is sitting in the #3 hole against Cy Strasburg, with some of the young talent already on hand in Cleveland (most notably Choo and Donald) and more on the way when these veterans are moved (when LaPorta, Brantley, and perhaps more pitching), that “long term vision” starts to come into focus.

Of course, I may just be excited about the prospect of an afternoon spent under the summer sun watching Carlos Santana face off against Cy Strasburg in mid-June, drunk with the “momentum” of a 4-game winning streak…

Black Magic

On the heels of a thrilling victory to split with the White Sox, let me break format here (as I'm not one for short posts or to comment on every little thing that happens with the Indians) to wish you a Happy Carlos Santana Day!


Pull those #41 jerseys out of the back of the closet (and start removing the “MARTINEZ”) and get ready for “The Axe Man”.

Steve Strasburg, consider this to be your warning...

Photo via Mangin Photography

Up and Down Tomahawks

After the Indians finally take one from the Red Sox on the power of the pitching performance of a former Red Sox player and as we all brace for the arrival of Hurricane Stephen on Sunday (that would be Strasburg...and I'll be in the Tribe Social Deck to witness the assumed carnage first-hand), let's get a couple of Tomahawks in the air and send them in Trevor Crowe's direction as we've now seen how he handles objects hurtling towards himself.

After pointing out that the Indians’ starters for the first 3 games against the Red Sox have given up 2 ER in 21 IP (0.85 ERA) and while I pat myself on the back for suggesting that Frank Herrmann (or The Hermannator, as he has been dubbed) make his way to the parent club, let’s get these going...
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While the trade discussions are on in full force and you can't read anything nationally that doesn't include a break-down of which Indians might be going where, I thought that this might be interesting to note:
The Indians are third last in the AL in Extra Base Hit Percentage (at 6.7%), which is basically a measure of how often a plate appearance results in an extra base hit...
The AL Average XBH% for individual players is 7.8%...
The players on the Indians with 100 or more plate appearances that are better than league average in XBH% are:
Austin Kearns – 10.4%
Jhonny Peralta – 9.6%
Rusty Branyan – 9.5%
The BLC – 8.3%

The Indians are tied for second last in the AL in Slugging Percentage at .364...
The AL Average Slugging Percentage for individual players is .409...
The players on the Indians with 100 or more plate appearances that are better than league average in SLG are:
Austin Kearns - .482
The BLC - .466
Rusty Branyan - .463

One Jhonny Peralta is the next highest Indian at .404...
Tell me again, who are those players that the Indians are likely to shop in July from their pop-gun lineup?

The point of this is not to depress anyone further or to throw cold water on any embers of excitement that may still exist out there, but rather to point out how overwhelmingly disappointing the players (both young and old) that were thought to be counted upon to provide some power for this lineup have led us to where we are today. Additionally, the idea that the Indians should look to move the likes of Kearns, Branyan, and Peralta (and they should...don't get me wrong on that point) mean that August and September are actually going to “feature” less offense.

Of course, we all wait with bated breath for the arrival of Carlos Santana, but even his arrival gets to the greater point that there's a possibility that he's simply going to be another young player attempting to make his way in MLB when he arrives. Maybe he has more success than Matt MaTola did (.277 SLG...4 points higher than the since-departed Mark Grudzielanek, who actually did not have an XBH in 119 PA), but inserting him in the lineup is not going to serve as a balm that suddenly solves the offensive offense, particularly when you consider that Kearns, Branyan, and Peralta are likely going to be wearing different uniforms in August.

Some of this can be blamed on the injuries to Sizemore and Cabrera, but even when those two were healthy (and it is still questionable if Grady was), take a look at where the numbers for those two stack up against MLB averages...with the inclusion of another veteran thrown in for good measure:
XBH%
MLB Average – 7.8%
Travis Hafner – 6.9%
Grady Sizemore – 5.7%
Asdrubal Cabrera – 5.4%

SLG
MLB Average - .409
Travis Hafner – .373
Asdrubal Cabrera – .368
Grady Sizemore – .289

Throw in that Matt MaTola had an XBH% of 3.8% (same as Trevor Crowe does right now) and that .277 SLG and you can see pretty clearly why this team is struggling offensively, significantly more than anyone would have thought going into the season. Unfortunately, you also see that the principals that the Indians are depending upon past 2010 as top-to-middle-of-the-lineup presences – Sizemore (assuming health), Cabrera, Hafner (gulp), and MaTola – are each full of question marks and recent struggles to hit for power for each in MLB are very real concerns.

Maybe Carlos Santana comes in and changes the whole dynamic of the offense, with Jason Donald being a spark-plug, with LaPorta and Brantley returning from Columbus with more consistent and better results, and with Cabrera coming off of an injury to re-join Choo in the lineup and to provide some offensive momentum into 2011.
Right now, that's awfully hard to see...
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That being said, the roster machinations that are probably going to go full-bore here over the next 6 weeks continued as Mark Grudzielanek found himself off of the roster, opening the door for somebody named Anderson Hernandez. I'm not going to pretend to care about Anderson Hernandez, as I hope that he ultimately becomes a footnote of the 2010 season as the hope that Donald and Valbuena will be given extended looks at 2B and SS until Cabrera returns may actually be taking hold.

As terrifying as that arrangement might be in light of what is written above, this certainly seems to set the table for a pretty standard lineup for a little while with somewhat obvious replacements as we move towards the end of the year:
C – Marson
1B – Branyan
2B – Valbuena
SS – Donald
3B – Peralta
LF – Kearns
CF – Crowe
RF – Choo
DH – Hafner

Throw your boy Shelley Duncan and my boy Andy Marte in there from time to time as a RH bat, but I could see this lineup going forward for a while with the first move being Santana being called up to replace Marson. After that, the trades will begin and LaPorta will presumably replace Branyan, while Brantley re-emerges to take over CF with Crowe sliding over to (shuddering) LF when Kearns gets traded. Additionally, it's likely that Valbuena finds himself without an everyday position when Cabrera gets healthy...unless he's going to 3B for the day when Peralta is presumably moved.

At least that movement and some new faces will generate something of interest to watch because, right now, this team is getting harder to watch by the day and the near future for the once-promising young offense is looking dimmer and dimmer because of it.
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As for those trade discussions that are likely starting (regardless of what is being said at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario), here's a little snippet from B-Pro's John Perrotto's “On the Beat”, which provides quotes from scouts on various players and this is certainly of interest:
Indians right-hander Fausto Carmona: “He's made a nice little comeback compared to where he was at last year and he's gotten himself into a lot better shape, but he's not the same guy who won 19 games in 2007. His sinker doesn't have that same bite it did back then and he doesn't strike guys out. If I were the Indians, I'd try to trade him right now since he might not rebuild his value any more than this.”

Since that is the view of a scout, perhaps it is interesting to consider in the context of some digging that Fangraphs recently did into his statistical tendencies that tend to back up the idea “he’s not the same guy who won 19 games in 2007”, when they point out the following:
This season, Carmona is having what appears to be a rebirth, as he’s running a 3.53 ERA through his first 11 starts. Looking slightly deeper, we see a similar K/BB rate to Carmona’s great 2007, but the ground ball rate just isn’t there any more. Still, with a ground ball rate as high as Carmona still runs, like his 56.2% rate this season, even a little luck can turn a mediocre season (4.18 FIP, 4.59 xFIP).

These opinions and breakdowns are extremely interesting because of the fact that Fausto is such a unique pitcher, never dependent on high K rates and relying on that sinker to induce groundballs. However, if scouts are saying that his sinker is not what it once was and his stats show that his ground ball rate is falling, what are the Indians to do with Fausto?

Remember, there was that talk of the Blue Jays scouting Fausto and you would think that there would be some serious interest in Carmona, given the…shall we say, flexible nature of his contract with the multiple club options that go all the way to 2014.

However, on a team that is pretty barren of even-mildly accomplished starting pitchers (and that number will shrink when Westbrook goes away), the importance of Carmona – even in the middle of the rotation – cannot be underestimated. I suppose that the argument exists that this team is miles away from contending and they should be selling high on Carmona, but count me as one who thinks that Carmona is on his way to coming back to form.

That form may never return to his v.2007 mastery, but even at a lower level of performance, keeping him around allows the Indians to have at least some semblance of consistency in a very young and inexperienced portion of their team. Additionally, that flexible nature of his contract (with the club options) allows the Indians to have the ability to see what Carmona puts forth from year to year, able to cut the cord if he ever regresses as he did in 2008 and 2009.
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With Tony Sipp's season officially coming off of the tracks recently and with Rafael Perez waking up every morning inexplicably still on the 25-man roster, how about this little nugget – the only LHP currently pitching in Columbus' bullpen is a name you might recognize...Jeremy Sowers.

With Laffey in the Clippers' rotation, Scott Lewis out of the organization, and Mike Gosling retiring, the nearest help for the bullpen – in terms of LHP – other than Sowers is in Kinston. In Akron, there are four LHP (Eric Berger, Kelvin De La Cruz, and Nick Hagadone), all of whom have started games exclusively for the Aeros. Kinston boasts 3 LHP (TJ House, TJ McFarland, and Chris Jones) and only one of them (Jones) is not in the K-Tribe's rotation.

There are 3 LH relievers in Lake County, but if you're looking for a reason that the Indians are so hesitant to part ways with Rafael Perez (and I have been), that's as good as any that I've found as their LH bullpen options above High-A ball are Tony Sipp and Jeremy Sowers.

Debate all you like about where Laffey is most valuable to this team (I’m starting to lean towards the bullpen) and that's not to present an argument to keep Perez around, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians start fishing for some LHP that could provide some bullpen depth beyond...you know, Jeremy Sowers and Chris Jones.
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Speaking of LHP, how about this from Craig Calcaterra as he discusses the idea that the Mariners are scouting the Yankees' farm system as the likelihood of the Bombers being interested in CP Lee is high:
Makes sense for the Mariners to at least be prepared in the event the Yankees realize that they can get one of the best pitchers in baseball to help them fight the Rays for the division and, assuming a long-term deal gets done, help anchor the rotation for the next several years.

Given his reasonable price tag, of course, there may be a lot of teams interested in renting Lee for the playoff stretch. The M's would be wise, however, to try and find a partner who could negotiate with Lee on a long term deal, thus bringing back some real value in exchange for their failed experiment at contending.

Am I the only one who's simply bracing for the inevitabilty of Clifton Phifer in pinstripes, be it this August or next April?
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It being the week of the MLB Draft, I should probably hit on something draft-related, so...after some premature reporting and back-tracking, there's this from SI.com's Jon Heymann, who has been known to break stories having to do with Scott Boras clients:
The Indians are close to a deal for about $1.55 million for second round pick LeVon Washington, a speedy outfielder at Chipola (Fla.) JC. Washington turned down an estimated $1.1 million from Tampa Bay last year. Since the deal with the Indians will be over slot, it won't be approved or official until August.

Obviously, LeVon (take it Elton) is a Boras client and not even pretending to be an expert on the varied players that the Indians took (that's better left to the experts), one thing that I do find interesting is the dollar amount being thrown out there for the Indians LeVon Washington, it being (allegedly) a $1.55M signing bonus.

This is relevant because the #55 overall pick last year received a $712,000 signing bonus and Washington's $1.55M bonus is higher than any 2nd Round Pick money that changed hands last year. In fact, there were only 18 1st Round Picks last year that received more money than the Indians just meted out to Washington, who just happens to be a Scott Boras client.

In case you were wondering, the #5 pick last year (which is where Pomeranz got taken) received a $2,420,000 bonus, something the Indians are sure to exceed with Pomeranz. While this is certainly a promising development on the surface, it should not be forgotten that the Indians HAVE spent money on Draft Picks when you look at signing bonuses from years past…the return on those investments (particularly those from 2003 to 2006 who received signing bonuses of $500K or more) have been another story:
2003
Michael Aubrey - $2,010,000
Brad Snyder - $1,525,000
Adam Miller - $1,025,000
Javier Herrera - $710,000

2004
Jeremy Sowers - $2,475,000
Justin Hoyman - $725,000
Chuck Lofgren - $650,000

2005
Trevor Crowe - $1,695,000
John Drennan - $1,000,000
Stephen Head - $605,000

2006
Wes Hodges - $1,000,000
David Huff - $900,000
Steven Wright - $630,000
Josh Rodriguez - $625,000
Ryan Morris - $500,000

The players are drafted and the Indians seem to be willing to spend money to get them into the fold, now it's a matter of seeing if the players that they're willing to take financial risks on can reap them any sort of reward.
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Finally, since I know that a number of people are heading down to Sunday’s game to see Cy Strasburg, shoot me an e-mail to meet up at some point as I will be down at the Tribe Social Deck (aka “Mom’s Basement) and would like to witness Strasburg with as many similarly-minded Tribe fans as I can.

The Same Old Song?

With news that Matt LaPorta is headed off to Columbus to make room for Andy Marte (apparently fully recovered from the ingrown hair on his stomach), he does so due to losing playing time to Austin Kearns, Rusty Branyan, and recently to Shelley Duncan. Lest anyone forget, two of those players were signed to Minor League deals in the off-season and Branyan was signed to a one-year deal with an option for a second year in a contract that most people found puzzling at the time as it ostensibly placed Branyan at 1B, a position that was thought to be LaPorta’s eventual landing spot on the team.

While LaPorta was coming off of off-season surgeries to his hip and his toe, the intimation that LaPorta would bounce back and forth from 1B to LF while occasionally getting some time at DH as one of the only RH bats on the 25-man roster ruled the day when Spring Training broke. With the “emergence” of Kearns and the continued AB given to Branyan, LaPorta has found himself buried deeper and deeper on Manny Acta’s bench. Certainly his performance when given the chance to play has been a factor as he’s sitting on a line of .218 BA / .290 OBP / .277 SLG / .567 OPS with just 5 extra-base hits in 131 plate appearances.

However, a more disturbing development (other than just a young player, coming off of injury, struggling to succeed in MLB) is at hand here when you look at the frequency in which LaPorta was used, particularly recently...and, by the way, I’m using “played” to mean that he started the game and played a decent portion of it and doesn't include a pinch-hitting appearance:
Games 1-3: Played
Game 4: DNP
Games 5-10: Played
Game 11: DNP
Game 12: Played
Game 13: DNP
Games 14-18: Played
Game 19: DNP
Game 20: Played
Game 21: DNP
Game 22: Played
Game 23 DNP
Game 24-25: Played
Game 26: DNP
Game 27-28: Played
Game 29-31: DNP
Game 32-35 Played
Game 36: DNP
Game 37: Played
Game 38: DNP
Game 39: Played
Game 40: DNP
Game 41: Played
Game 42: DNP
Game 43: Played
Game 44: DNP
Game 45: Played
Game 46: DNP
Game 47: Played
Game 48: DNP
Game 49: Played
Game 50-51: DNP
Game 52: Played
Game 53-54: DNP
Game 55: Played

Just to parse through that, LaPorta has not started consecutive games since mid-May and started 15 of the 27 games in May. At first blush, given LaPorta’s off-season surgeries, one would think that the Indians were simply protecting a still-recovering LaPorta, unable to convince him to go on the DL to fully heal, rest, and rehab. That thought – that perhaps LaPorta’s lingering injuries have prevented him from playing on consecutive games – now looks to be tested as the idea that LaPorta will go to Columbus to get “more consistent at-bats” is the new organizational stance, as stated by Acta:
We just don’t think there are enough at-bats for him…The way that [Austin] Kearns has swung the bat, and the way that we arranged for Russell [Branyan] to play about five games a week, it’s not fair to the kid. We feel like he should be down there playing every day until we can find enough at-bats for him.

Just to be clear, the players that are blocking LaPorta (who was unquestionably struggling) are all over the age of 30, with two of them being signed to minor-league deals in the off-season. Particularly glaring is the fact that Shelley Duncan has started 5 games of the last 14 games while LaPorta has started 6. While results certainly play a role here, Acta continued in his explanation by saying, “we did give him an opportunity at the beginning, and he was getting some at-bats… He needs to go down there, get at-bats, improve and then, later on, if anything happens up here, he can come up and play every day. Right now, with Kearns hitting third, Branyan being one of our threats and Travis [Hafner] being our DH, at-bats are not there for him.”

There’s certainly something to be said for veteran presence in a lineup, but there’s also something to be said for giving consistent AB to players (particularly those that are now 25) that are were highly-touted prospects as long ago as 2 years ago. If this were an aberration or simply an instance where a young Indians player might benefit from taking a break from MLB pitching to gain more confidence, then a benefit of the doubt would be in order. Additionally, if the LaPorta’s injuries prevented him from playing every day, the idea that they were playing him as often as his health would allow and that they wanted him to learn and compete at the Big League level while getting healthy could buy some organizational goodwill.

However, you don’t have to look further than LaPorta’s usage last year when he was called up (only to mire on the Cleveland bench before being sent back down, starting only 12 of the 20 games he was on the 25-man roster in May) to see an instance of a young, potential “core” player who found themselves playing sporadically or not at all, blocked ostensibly by roster filler.

Lest anyone forget, LaPorta didn’t receive consistent AB last May because the Indians were playing Ben Francisco (now a 4th OF in Philly) and Ryan Garko (who recently passed through waivers and is on Texas' AAA team) as the club made one last “effort” in May and June while LaPorta, fresh off of half-of-a-season terrorizing AAA pitchers, waited patiently for his turn. Upon his return, he posted a .273 BA / .315 OBP / .489 SLG / .805 OPS before ending the season with an injury in LF in Boston.

Perhaps Matt LaPorta goes to Columbus and finds his stroke while the Indians “showcase” Austin Kearns and Russell Branyan to net better prospects…but to what end?

At what point will a player like Matt LaPorta (assuming health, which is not a given) be given an extended chance to show that he belongs or that he has the ability to adjust to MLB?

Does the quality of the prospect that the Indians figure to get for either Kearns or Branyan make up for LaPorta missing 2 months of MLB plate appearances if Matt LaPorta truly is still supposed to be the middle-of-the-order RH bat that is so sorely needed in the Indians’ lineup past 2010?

While this story may eventually have a happy ending, with LaPorta re-establishing his confidence and his stroke in AAA while getting fully healthy and able to “play every day” coming back up when Kearns and/or Branyan make their way off of the roster. However, the scary underside of recent history has told us that it is just as likely is that he toils in Columbus as other highly-touted prospects (much younger than him) have done.

With only 329 MLB plate appearances to his credit, the Indians head into mid-June with a Columbus lineup that looks closer to what most people thought the mid-June lineup would look like in Cleveland as the 25-year-old who was supposed to be the near-MLB-ready bat in the Sabathia deal heads down I-71 in an attempt to force his way into a real chance on the parent club, something that has eluded him to date.

A Lazy Sunday Drafting the Lead Car

As the great (if fictitious) Harry Doyle once said, “In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” While those wins “here and there” are ostensibly all against the Pale Hose (38% of the team’s victories are against the South Siders), a win is a win as the Indians attempt to build some momentum despite all signs pointing to them not being able to do so, what with Sizemore officially out for the year and with the Red Sox getting ready for their only visit to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario tomorrow.

Nevertheless, it is Sunday and while I have some clean-up to do around the yard after the nasty storms that tore through the North Coast early this morning, let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday…

Obviously, the biggest news of the week was that Grady Sizemore (unsurprisingly, if you remember the confusing “symptoms” and “bruises” of his injury and the fact that this is the Indians) did undergo microfracture surgery on his knee, ending the 2010 season for the Indians’ CF. Frankly, this wasn’t all that unexpected and the implications of this are that the Indians will have to hope that the procedure not only fixes what ails Sizemore, but that he will come back at a level of competition close to where he was back in 2008, something that is far from a given.

Even if Sandy Alomar Jr. blithely played off the surgery saying that “the doctors said I’d be out six months…I made it back in three months” and that “If you get that thing done, you should be OK…I played all the way from 1995 until 2007 and I was catching. The guy Steadman is pretty good. He operated on Carlos Beltran, too, and he's just about ready to come back for the Mets” adding his professional opinion that “It’s flip coin, but once you come back you should be solid…Once it becomes calcified, you should be all right.”

That’s all well and good and it makes for a good quote, but given the events concerning injuries of the past few years, I’ll wait for a quote from someone with a DR. in front of his name and not a JR. after his name before buying into Alomar’s “flip coin” theory.

A week and a half ago, I wrote that, “Perhaps it’s the Clevelander in me, but I’m just gripping for the worst, that he’s out for the season and that they ‘hope’ that the surgery solves things so he’s ready for 2011. If that were to happen, let’s hope that the Sizemore knee doesn’t join the Hafner shoulder in body parts that make the early-to-mid-2010s painful for more than just said injured players.” To that end, Todd Dery has a good piece over at WFNY on Hafner and Sizemore and how the regressions and injuries to both have played a major role to put the Indians in their current situation. I’d probably add Carmona to that mix, and if you look at how those 3 players are the ones that were signed to contracts that included guaranteed money that went the furthest into the future (albeit in option years in some cases) with the idea that that troika would be the linchpins for the pitching and offense going forward, you can see very quickly how and why things have fallen on such hard times in the past 2+ years.

Regardless, the news on Sizemore means that the Indians’ OF situation is full of opportunity for players like Kearns (MLB GM’s take note), Crowe (whose next correct read off of the bat will be his first), Shelley Duncan (who I’m oddly intrigued by, which may just be a sign of how desperate this season feels), and eventually Mike Brantley (though that will probably after the All-Star Break to manage his service time and see if he can get into a groove in AAA) to position themselves in the OF mix beyond 2010. Perhaps the idea holds true that one of the spots in the 2011 OF is going to be Brantley’s permanent spot (and does anyone else think that maybe Sizemore comes back as a LF?), but there’s going to be 2 positions up for grabs for the rest of the season and since Matt MaTola has played a total of 7 games in LF in the first 1/3 of the season, one would imagine that Kearns, Crowe, Duncan, Brantley, and maybe some other minor league players will see some time in the outfield grass of the friendly confines this year.

Other than the Sizemore injury and the fallout, sitting on the eve of the MLB Draft (with the Indians holding the #5 pick, the highest they’ve picked since 1992), it makes sense to get into some coverage of it, although I do so with an asterisk in place that I have zero knowledge about most (if not all) of these players and the actual MLB Draft system holds my interest more than projecting out 18-year-olds.

That being said, here are a couple of player preview pieces from IPI that break down the available position players and pitchers that might become the Indians’ top selection. Also, here are a few mock drafts, with one from Kevin Goldstein at B-Pro that has the Indians taking Ole Miss LHP Drew Pomeranz, as does Keith Law, while MLB Bonus Baby and My MLB Draft have the Indians taking Florida Gulf Coast LHP Chris Sale.

Pomeranz and Sale are just names to me at this point, so again I will say that I have little to no knowledge to impart on these two (or any other draft prospects), though it does strike me that Pomeranz is 6-5, 231 and Sale is 6-6, 172, meaning that if either is chosen, it would go along the lines of pitcher acquisition that we've seen recently with Justin Masterson (6-6, 250), Nick Hagadone (6-5, 230), Bryan Price (6-4, 210), Carlos Carrasco (6-3, 215), Jason Knapp (6-5, 235), and Alex White (6-3, 200).

Whether the Indians are thinking about simply building up the best intramural basketball team or that they’re continuing this newfound strategy of getting these big hard-throwers with the idea that they’ll be able to fill their rotation and bullpen with some mix of them remains to be seen.

Of course, leave it to the Indians to end up with the 5th pick in a draft that Pete Gammons (in a great piece that deserves a full read) says “is a three-player showcase -- Harper, Machado, Taillon,” adding in this wonderful quote from an NL GM, “After that, there’s virtually no difference between the fourth and 44th picks. So in many ways, it’s really a scouts’ Draft. If your scouts are really good, you will be fine, except that it will be expensive.”

If there really is “virtually no difference between the fourth and the 44th picks”, remember how the Red Sox have 3 of those top 44 picks and the Angels have 5 of those top 44 picks?

Really, the most interesting bit that I’ve seen regarding the draft came up in a piece from the print edition of this week’s SI, in which Tom Verducci takes some time away from analyzing the potential picks to discuss the merits and flaws of the current system in place:
Despite the rising costs of signing high picks, more and more franchises are realizing that the draft has become the most cost-efficient way to build a contender. That means that larger-market teams are putting more effort—and money—into the draft than ever before. “The media attention is directly tied to the fact that there’s a greater understanding of the importance of young players,” Indians general manager Mark Shapiro says. “And the draft is clearly the single greatest option to infuse [an organization with] young talent at one time. The big markets began to emphasize young talent. And frankly, the media goes where the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets go.”
--snip--
Boston, for instance, embarked on a more aggressive draft strategy beginning in 2006, when it started dangling first-round money at later-round draft picks. (Often those players sank in the draft because they were “signability” risks: low-budget teams with early picks knew they couldn't meet the players' salary demands.) From 2006 to '09, the Red Sox handed out bonuses between $500,000 and $2 million to nine players taken in the third round or later. (The Yankees also signed nine in that price range in that span.) On one Class A team alone this year, Boston has five players who signed for at least half a million dollars.

Looking past the point that the Indians’ GM (whose been taken to the woodshed recently for the failure of the team to build through the draft) was the one who went on the record to say that “the draft is clearly the single greatest option to infuse young talent at one time”, his follow-up to that gets to the point of the draft that’ been bothering me for quite a while.

Verducci hits on it perfectly as he illustrates the way that large-market teams (the ones with the larger margin of error) have taken a new approach to the draft and, by exploiting another open door made wider by the virtue of their revenue streams, have turned the draft on its collective head. Just to keep with Verducci’s example, the Red Sox are using every advantage available to them and are by no means skirting the rules in place, but look at those last two sentences again - “From 2006 to ‘09, the Red Sox handed out bonuses between $500,000 and $2 million to nine players taken in the third round or later...On one Class A team alone this year, Boston has five players who signed for at least half a million dollars.”

That’s for players from the 3rd round or later that got those big paydays and does not take into consideration Boston giving guys like Casey Kelly (1st Round Pick in 2008) a $3M signing bonus as the 30th pick in the draft, which qualifies as the 7th highest signing bonus in the 2008 draft. It also discounts how much over-slot the Red Sox are paying some of these players, as they paid a $2M signing bonus to Ryan Westmoreland, the 172nd pick of that same 2008 draft. In doing so, Westmoreland netted the 11th biggest signing bonus of the draft (tied with the #7 overall pick, Yadier Alonso) as a 5th Round Pick. Thus, in the 2008 draft, the Red Sox drafted and signed 2 of the top 11 picks (when they had one 1st Round Pick – the 30th in the draft in which they picked Kelly), if you’re going to use signing bonuses as a reasonable measuring stick of worth.

That’s not to say that this strategy is always going to work in the long run, as Kelly is a 20-year-old who has decided that he’s going to become a full-time pitcher (which was the Sox plan all along) and Westmoreland went through a scary brain surgery just this past March, but even if those players don’t pan out, the Red Sox have the deep pockets (and more highly-paid draft picks) to fill the void.

Just to put some hard numbers on this, take a look at the amount of bonus money that's been paid out by the Red Sox and by the Indians since that 2006 date that Verducci uses:
Indians 2006 - $5,349,500
1 player receiving more than $1M and 4 more players receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2006 - $7,772,000
2 players receiving more than $1M and 5 more players receiving more than $500K

Indians 2007 - $2,271,800
1 player receiving more than $1M
Red Sox 2007 - $3,505,500
0 players receiving more than $1M and 4 players receiving more than $500K

Indians 2008- $3,962,000
2 players receiving more than $1M and 2 more players receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2008 - $7,999,000
2 players receiving more than $2M and 2 more players receiving more than $500K

Indians 2009 - $3,853,000
1 player receiving more than $1M (Alex White, $2.25M) and 1 more player receiving more than $500K
Red Sox 2009 - $5,983,400
2 players receiving more than $1M and 3 more players receiving more than $500K

While judging the results of these 4 drafts are still wildly premature to accurately judge (although as Adam Van Arsdale of LGT adroitly asserts, the results of the last 2 Brad Grant-run drafts for the Tribe have been more promising than the John Mirabelli-run drafts prior to that), it brings home the notion that the larger-market teams like the Red Sox are starting to figure out another angle that they can exploit.

While the difference in the total dollar amount spent doesn’t look too large, in terms of MLB payrolls, but as an AL GM told Verducci about the draft for the referenced article, “It’s the most cost-efficient thing we do in baseball. You hit with one or two picks [a year], and it makes your organization.” If you’re keeping track at home, the Red Sox have given 6 players signing bonuses of $1M or more in the past 4 drafts (the Indians have 5 players with signing bonuses of $1M in the same timeframe) and have paid 14 players a signing bonus of $500K or more, while the Indians have given 7 players between $500K and $1M in the same timeframe. While the 20 players that the Red Sox have given more than $500K to doesn’t look THAT much larger than the Indians’ 12 players that have received more than $500K, realize that the draft is a game of attrition and the more players that are given the opportunity to hit increases the likelihood that one (or more) of them do.

Go back to that quote that “you hit with one or two picks [a year], and it makes your organization” and you see the prudence of what teams like the Red Sox are attempting to do, as the intent is to hit on three to four picks a year. That may seem obvious, but the underlying strategy is to ensure that not only their pipeline remain full with young, cheap talent, but that the overflow talent can be used to acquire MLB talent from teams looking to shed payroll and add those young, talented players into the mix. As I wrote nearly a year-and-a-half ago, “the commodity of young, under-contract-for-the-foreseeable future players has become increasingly important in baseball” and there’s no greater evidence than that than the Victor Martinez trade of last year.

In netting Justin Masterson ($510,000 as a 2nd Round Pick in 2006), Hagadone($571,500 as a sandwich pick in 2007), and Bryan Price ($849,000 as a 1st Round Pick in 2008), they basically added 3 arms who had already been paid their signing bonuses and had proven that their high draft position was justified by performing in the Minors. The Red Sox spent nearly $2M to sign those three players and used the 18 club-controlled years (combined for the 3 players) as a sort of currency to add Martinez to their lineup.

The practice is likely to become more commonplace as the mid-to-small-market teams begin their rebuilds with an eye on young, cost-controlled talent who may have been high draft picks with large signing boneses. When a team like Arizona is ready to tear-down (and the linked piece that relays that they are is extremely interesting to compare what's happened on the North Coast and in the desert since 2007 in terms of injuries, regressions, and young players not developing as it was once thought that they would), teams like the Red Sox have the most sought-after currency in MLB – young, cheap talent whose signing bonuses have already been paid to them.

Now, teams like the Red Sox truly sit in the catbird’s seat, where they can pull the players that they truly want to keep off of the table (as they did with Buchholz last year) and give other teams a list of intriguing talents (even if they’re the second-tier of Red Sox prospects) for the team to choose from. Teams like the Indians remain beholden to the teams that have spent more money in the draft (though they do still need to pick the right players) as the only place to make up for a dry pipeline is to pick through the farm systems of teams that have young talent, but aren’t necessarily harvesting that talent for their own parent club.

Thus, the Indians have had to make up for their drafting deficiencies (although here’s a fascinating piece from Baseball Prospectus that works out how each team in MLB would be performing if they were working with only the players they drafted and signed as amateurs...and it has the “No Turnover” Indians compiling an average record of 88-74 from 2007 to 2009, atop the AL Central just 1 game behind both the Red Sox and Yankees in the greater AL landscape), is to pick through other organizations’ farm systems in an attempt to augment their own drafted or internationally signed players to create that “window of contention”.

That’s where the 2010 season is, watching the products of other farm systems combine with the Indians’ own products as the Tribe is now squarely coming to terms with the fact that many of their 1st Round Picks (who did get those big signing bonuses) are nothing more than marginal MLB players, something referenced in the SI piece when Yankees' vice president of scouting Damon Oppenheimer says, “But has there been longevity and impact? You can say guys touched the big leagues, but is that all that you're looking for from a first-round pick?”

On the eve of the MLB Draft and the 5th Round pick…let’s hope not.

Toothless Tomahawks

On the heels of what will certainly be dubbed “the worst call in baseball history” by some talking head in the coming 24-hour news cycle, let’s certainly give Armando Galarraga his due as he completely flummoxed an Indians’ lineup en route to what should have been a perfect game. While the focus will be on Jim Joyce and whether instant replay should be introduced into close plays on the bases, as an Indians’ fan, was anyone else sitting there, inning after inning, dreading that this perfect game was going to happen?

Of course, seeing history is seeing history, but the Indians’ lineup was so thoroughly overmatched by Galarraga (who has spent more time in AAA than MLB this year) and the night was devoid of a hard-hit ball by an Indian until Grudzielanek’s blast in the 9th (and you had to think that the Perfecto was coming when Austin Jackson made that catch). The Tribe sent pop-up after nubber after softly hit line drive out into the field as Galarraga provided the pitches that perfectly summarize the Indians’ ineptitude at the plate to date this year – no rhythm, no life, no feeling that the team is ready to break out.

Watching the game, was there ever a hitter that strode to the box that made you think that “this is the guy” or “this guy will get on base”?
For me, that feeling never came, right up to the final out…and the one after that.

Nevertheless, while the 2010 Indians will not become a footnote in history (at least tonight), let’s get those Tomahawks down the first base line to see if Jim Joyce is paying attention yet…
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Lost in the debate over whether Justin Masterson should remain a starter, how in the world Dave Huff isn’t going to miss a start after taking a batted ball off of his head, hoping (beyond hope) that the Faustastic One has returned (ERA now at 3.53 with no BB in 8 IP tonight), and evaluating Jake Westbrook’s trade value (more on that in a bit) is the fact that Mitch Talbot has quietly put together a tremendous start to the 2010 season.

While I remain baffled as to how The Fury has succeeded (what with the low K rates, the nearly 1-to-1 K/BB rate, the BABIP that has risen without appreciably worse results, and some sort of preternatural ability to get out of jams), Talbot has clearly been the most pleasant surprise on a team in need of them.

Looking at Talbot’s body of work to date, I realized something – Mitch Talbot (all 26 years of him) is still technically a Rookie and (while end-of-the-season awards in MLB are just about the most useless “achievements” I can think of) Mitch Talbot actually has a legitimate shot at consideration for American League Rookie of the Year.

As I said, being named AL ROY doesn’t really earn you all that much (paging Ron Kittle, Bob Hamelin, Angel Berroa, Ben Grieve, and Pat Listach), but in a season in which Indians’ fans need something to cheer for, taking on the cause of “The Fury for AL ROY” is as good as any these days.

Perusing through the other candidates, there’s no question that Texas’ Neftali Feliz has certainly made a case out of the Rangers’ bullpen and Talbot’s former Durham Bull teammate Wade Davis has performed admirably in the Tampa rotation. The early “lock”, Austin Jackson, has come back to Earth a little bit (and I should note that Jackson has struck out 57 times in 49 games for the Kitties), though he figures to stay in the mix, and his teammate Brennan Boesch figures to get some attention from the voters who haven’t learned that RBI is not the definitive measure of a hitter. The Orioles’ Brian Matusz may get some consideration as he is a highly-touted prospect, although his numbers pale in comparison to that of Talbot.

And that’s the amazing thing when you put Talbot’s numbers thus far in the context of all AL starters and not just Rookies (and I’ll include the meaningless “wins” stat because that’s what BBWAA voters will consider) this year:
Wins – 6 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, tied for 4th among all AL starters)
ERA – 3.78 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, 27th among all AL starters)
ERA+ - 105 (2nd among AL Rookie Starters, 31st among all AL starters)
WHIP – 1.29 (1st among AL Rookie Starters, 25th among all AL starters)

As an interesting sidenote, since Dave Righetti won the AL ROY in 1981 (when he was still a starter), there has been one starting pitcher that has won the award – Justin Verlander in 2006.

Can Talbot keep up this pace?
I’m the wrong guy to ask, because I’ve been throwing him under the bus from the time the Indians added him for Kelly Shoppach. However, if he can keep up some semblance of this pace, he may get a look at becoming the first Indians’ Rookie of the Year since Sandy Alomar won the award in 1990.

Of course, once upon a time in a galaxy far, far away, Jody Gerut was the AL Rookie Hitter of the Year for The Sporting News, showing how fleeting success can be (particularly for an older rookie), but Talbot’s achievements thus far are nothing to scoff at and as long as he continues to bring The Fury to the mound every 5 days, the Indians may have themselves some of the rotational depth going forward that is so sorely needed.
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Speaking of rookies, the clamoring for ‘Los Santana looks to be reaching a fevered pitch and this assumption that Santana will cure all that ails the Indians’ scuffling offense is getting some roots in the ground. While I’m just as (if not more) excited for Santana’s debut, perhaps there needs to be a quick realization that there are quite a bit of expectations being placed on the shoulders of a guy that has yet to see a MLB pitch.

With that in mind, some hack over at Beyond the Box Score made the comparison to last year’s “Super-2” catcher, Matt Wieters, who was supposed to carry the Orioles’ offense on his back…something he has yet to do, even 2 months into this season. That’s not to say that enthusiasm over Santana’s arrival should be tempered to the point that we shouldn’t be excited about him, only that some perspective is needed if (or maybe when) Santana goes through some adjustment periods in MLB.

As a quick aside, I’ve seen some momentum on calling the Indians’ Carlos Santana “Smooth”, probably in reference to the song that the guitarist Carlos Santana and Matchbox 20’s Rob Thomas battered over our heads back in 1999. If you have any memory of that song being played ad nauseum for what seemed like 3 years, you would give great pause before relating this song to anything that you actually liked…or will potentially root for.

While the name “Smooth” is not bad for any baseball player, the mere idea that the impetus for said nickname came from the Top 40 garbage that Carlos Santana (the guitarist) has evolved into producing (and “Smooth” was really the first foray into that) makes me ill. What’s next – using some song from Creed or Nickelback to nickname these players? While that may be going overboard a little (and it really isn’t), the suggestion that Santana (the catcher) should be called “Smooth” because…because…because “Smooth” was the biggest hit put out by Santana (the guitarist) is just lazy.

If we’re going to “honor” the guitarist or at least bring up the coincidence that the Indians’ top prospect shares a name with a legendary guitarist, can’t we get a little more creative on this?

How about “The Axe Man” or “The Axe Murderer”, or honor a time in which Carlos Santana was putting out legitimately great songs, like bestowing a nickname such as “Black Magic” for “Black Magic Woman”?

Remember when there was a movement to refer to Matt MaTola as “White Thunder”? This is wildly premature, but what about the idea that the middle of the Indians’ lineup could be anchored by “Black Magic” and “White Thunder”?

Actually, perhaps the evolution of Matt LaPorta from “White Thunder” to “Matt MaTola” (or “Fat Matt MaTola”, if you prefer) should serve as a lesson that glossing these players before we’ve even seen them play in the Big Leagues is premature.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go see what looks better on the back of the #41 jersey I’m about to order – “The Axe Man” or “Black Magic”…
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By now you know that the MLB Amateur Draft is coming up next Monday and that the Indians have the 5th pick in the Draft on the “merits” of their 2009 season. I’m not going to claim to know anything about any of the prospective draft picks or assert that “this guy” is better than “that guy” as…well, it just doesn’t interest me.

What does interest me is this:
2010 Draft Picks
Cleveland – #5, #55
Anaheim - #18, #29, #30, #37, #40
Boston – #20, #36, #39, #57

No, that’s for real…
Because of the Supplemental Draft Picks for Type A and Type B Free Agents that are assigned to teams that lose Type A and Type B Free Agents, the Angels will have made 5 picks in the top 40 before the Indians get to make their second selection and the Red Sox will have 4 picks in the top 57 while the Indians will have just 2 picks in the top 55.

The Red Sox and Angels will receive these picks on the basis of the teams losing Chone Figgins and John Lackey (to the Red Sox coincidentally) and Jason Bay and Billy Wagner. If you don’t remember, the Red Sox acquired Wagner from the Mets by picking up the remainder of his $3.3M salary and giving them 2 non-prospects, all of which netted them the #20 and #39 picks.

Truthfully, that #5 pick is the most important of all of the picks as it gives the Indians the opportunity to pick in the top 5 for the first time since 1992 (when they took Paul Shuey #2), but given what has been written particularly about the Red Sox consistently paying their draft picks with “overslot” money, isn’t this just perpetuating the imbalance that pervades the league?
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Since news like that can drive one to drink, I’ll provide a quick update (whether you’re interested or not) in the selection of “Drink of the Summer” as we have now passed the arbitrary Memorial Day date for a choice to be made.

When questioning most of my friends, many told me that they had the perfect solution…which was to “just drink gin” and while that certainly will not be dismissed out of hand, the presence of a 4-month-old who still wakes up at night precludes the enjoyment of gin on much more than a periodic basis.

Thus, we’re back to finding a “Drink of the Summer” with the caveat that I’m looking for a beer. After trying out Magic Hat #9, Troegs’ Dreamweaver, enjoying Yuengling up in Chautauqua (which I cannot get in Ohio), and testing Founders’ Red Rye IPA, I’m still undecided.

If I had to pick a leader in the clubhouse, it would probably be Troegs’ Dreamweaver, but I could still be swayed. For now, I’ll enjoy the search and decision while keeping the High Life (which is the perpetual “Drink of the Summer”) in the icebox.
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On the trade front (and it pains me to address this stuff at the beginning of June), let me just point out some pertinent numbers that can be viewed and utilized by 29 of the GM’s around baseball if they so choose:
Jake Westbrook – Last 5 starts
3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 16 K, 8 BB in 34 2/3 IP with a .690 OPS against

Jhonny Peralta – Last 35 games
.286 BA / .353 OBP / .474 SLG / .827 OPS with 12 2B, 2 3B, and 3 HR

Russell Branyan – Last 19 games
.266 BA / .314 OBP / .625 SLG / .939 OPS with 2 2B and 7 HR

As for the other moveable parts going into this Trading Season (and Mark Grudz and Jamey Wright need not apply), Austin Kearns, whose numbers have dropped like a stone as he has 4 extra-base hits in his last 21 games, and Kerry Wood, who has allowed runs in half of his appearances and is the owner of a .999 OPS against…well, sadly…I have nothing.
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Finally, whether you’ve heard or not, Cy (or is it Sandy) Strasburg looks to be making his 2nd MLB start (against what looks to be Dave Huff, assuming the rotation stays intact) at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario on Sunday, June 13th.

While that bit of information is certainly exciting (and needed, given the Indians’ attendance to date), here’s hoping that Strasburg’s start is ruined by Carlos Santana (the catcher) making his Cleveland debut for the Erie Warriors in front of a full house of fans who have all taken the time to remove the “MARTINEZ” lettering out of their #41 jerseys while they cheer on their new hero, “The Axe Man”…or is it “Black Magic”?