A Post-Decision Lazy Sunday

In light of the whole LeBron thing, I took a break from Tomahawks or any other such attempt to make the Indians relevant at the end of the work week, but now that we’ve all had some time to remove the knife from our collective back, placed there by one of “our own” for all of the world to see, let’s attempt to move past this. With a quick reminder that it’s important to root for the front of the jersey, not the back of it, perhaps we can move past this and right into a Lazy Sunday...

Ah, who am I kidding?
Even though this is the space that you come to read about the Indians and I’m not going to pretend to provide the perfect encapsulation of the past week, I can’t help but use this Lazy Sunday platform (which was originally conceived to include all the “news that’s fit to link”) to link some of the best pieces that were out there on “The Debacle” before riding headlong into the Indians-related portion of our program.

Among MANY of the high points hit on by Bill Simmons in his pre-announcement piece was the astute observation that the way that sports media changed (perhaps forever) with this whole mess:
The way media people have been speculating in a way that seems like a cross between learned information and opinion, except we're never really sure what’s real and what’s conjecture. Thanks to Twitter and the 24/7 news cycle, the lines have been blurred completely. Chuck Klosterman thinks the true hero of the LeBron saga is Brian Windhorst, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter who cranked out articles and Tweets by the boatload -- never speculation, always facts, always backed up by sources, and there were a couple of times when he made you wonder, "Wait a second, is Windhorst hiding under a table in LeBron’s office right now?" Maybe he was.

Without question, Windhorst really did come off as the “true hero” as everyone else participating seemed to be playing a game to see who could find the lowest road to take. Not only was Windhorst setting the bar high in print (and if you haven’t seen his ground-breaking piece today, take some time out for it), he was breaking down the situation as clearly as anyone, evidenced by his appearance on Tony Rizzo’s show on WKNR on the morning of the announcement. In case you haven’t heard it and if you think that there’s nothing else that can illuminate this whole situation, just take a listen and prepare to have your mind blown.

Post-announcement, probably the best piece of the whole mess came from Yahoo Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski, who justifiably cast the net of blame far and wide in a piece that I have trouble disagreeing with at any point. Taking it further, we have pieces relaying personal perspective from South Euclid native Joe Posnanski (who also throws another log on the fire about something I’ve been thinking about – the danger of impetuousness in the NBA and how it relates to Dan Gilbert’s approach going forward) and Cleveland native Scott Raab, and in a broader sense from Will Leitch, who brilliantly nails the feeling that every sports fan should have had watching “The Debacle” that was Thursday night:
We are all pouring our hearts and souls into cheering for men (and women) who do not care about us, who are not like us, who are not the type of people we would ever associate with (or even meet) in real life. We deify them because it is hard to find people to deify in the real world: Sports spans every age group, ethnic group, political persuasion, and all else that serves to divide us, separate us. We cheer for athletes because sports does not matter, not really. We cheer because sports is, ultimately, harmless.

And we trust that they will at least pretend. We trust that they will recognize the ultimate ludicrousness of this whole enterprise, that these are grown men wearing tank tops, throwing a ball up and around, running on wood, that this all exists because we allow it to exist, that the illusion must be maintained. We trust that they understand how good they have it, how much we give them, against our own self-interest. We trust that they are not laughing at us.

That trust felt broken tonight...
--snip--
The fear is that we’ve truly seen the ugly, dark heart of sports, and we won’t be able to come back. It feels extremely stupid to be a sports fan. It feels pointless. None of this felt harmless tonight. And we allowed this to happen. Perhaps this is what we deserve. Perhaps this will be good for us, all of us.

All told, it was…well, it was not a good night to be a Cleveland sports fan. So when I woke up the next morning, just looking for that escape from the abomination of Thursday night, I opened my Friday PD Sports Page and attempted to read the recap of Thursday’s loss to the Rays, for a diversion, when I came across this in the “game description” from Paul Hoynes:
Strange and unexpected things keep happening in the world, but the Indians remain a safe haven. More often than not throughout their history they have consistently produced one thing -- defeat. In an ever-changing landscape, they provide us with a comforting continuity.

Seriously?
On a morning when the region feels betrayed and vulnerable, Hoynes takes THAT cheap shot at the Indians?
As the Indians’ beat writer following a team that has won 90 games in 7 of the last 15 seasons, advancing 4 times to the ALCS of further in that timeframe, Hoynes has no business inserting his little jab in and as I read him twisting the knife a quarter turn for no apparent reason, I couldn’t help but think that the manner in which Windhorst handled the whole situation and the way that Hoynes took an absurd cheap shot in the one paragraph in which he “editorialized” on this whole LeBron thing illustrates more clearly than I could ever explain why some writers become necessary and others become ancillary. If you want a shining example of the former, simply look at Anthony Castrovince’s post-announcement post that succinctly teaches a lesson and relates it to, you know, the team that he actually covers.

Off the soapbox and moving to the Trading Post, Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier in the week that there are “multiple teams interested in Indians’ Kerry Wood” though “nothing close” as well as that there is “interest in Westbrook, less on Kearns, little on Peralta”. Obviously, I can’t imagine that the Indians picking up some of those remaining salaries could have a major impact on the attractiveness of a couple of those players (notably Westbrook and Wood) and paying the money remaining on those deals could make the Indians’ veterans that much more attractive in the next couple of weeks.

Going further on that, here’s B-Pro’s John Perrotto on Kerry Wood being an option for contenders for relievers:
Contending teams do not consider him closer-worthy but are intrigued enough to try to acquire him to help in a set-up role if the Indians eat at least part of the approximately $5 million left on his salary for this season. Among the teams believed to be interested are the Reds, Angels, Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees.

Interestingly, Perrotto also relays that “the Indians are leaning toward hanging on to right-hander Jake Westbrook because they want the veteran to serve as anchor for their young rotation” and that may be well and good, but I’d go back to what I wrote last weekend that “perhaps the Indians are serious about approaching Westbrook about re-signing with the team for 2011 and maybe longer, but him pitching in St. Louis (or wherever) for two months isn’t going to change that possibility too profoundly.”

Want to know why?
Because teams are going to be looking for starting pitching...nearly every team close to contention will be looking for an upgrade in their rotation and once most of the bigger pieces (and more dominoes will fall after CP Lee) are no longer available, the Indians shouldn’t hesitate to move Westbrook for the remainder of the 2010 season.

Just as one example, via Craig Calcaterra at HBT (relaying a story from MLB.com), the Dodgers are looking to add “cheap” pitching, which could play right into the Indians’ hand…again, assuming they are willing to pick up some or all of Westbrook’s remaining money. Going through the other names in the linked piece, I can’t imagine that the D-Backs are willing to assume all of the cash left on Haren’s deal ($29M going forward, plus whatever is owed yet this year) or that the Astros will pick up any and all guaranteed remaining money ($18M plus the remainder of his 2010 salary) on Oswalt’s deal.

Not to continually play this up, but can we PLEASE pay the rest of Westbrooks contract so we can move him to the Dodgers for another Carlos Santana…or maybe even another Josh Bell, whom the Dodgers inexplicably gave up last year for reliever George Sherrill?

Then again, with Brad Penny experiencing a setback in his recovery, the Cardinals could be just as desperate for starting pitching, pending the results of the tests that Penny will undergo. Plus, if the Cardinals are willing to sign Mike MacDougal to a minor-league deal in an attempt to shore up their bullpen, do you think that they might also have an interest in a certain closer who used to reside in their division?

See what I’m getting at here with Westbrook and Wood?
As unattractive as they may look after a particular start or after a particular appearance, they likely represent an upgrade for some contender at some level of their rotation and bullpen and, for the stretch run, that could be a desired commodity around baseball. Granted, Westbrook and Wood are still not even a Type B Free Agents (meaning the any acquiring team would get no draft pick compensation if either leaves as a Free Agent this off-season), but the interest will come around and the Indians should deal both of them, regardless of what they’re saying now.

Of course, the first pitching domino has been felled has CP Lee will make his way to the Rangers in exchange for four prospects with the headliner being 1B Justin Smoak. Almost universally, Smoak has been identified as the “best player to be traded for Cliff Lee”, quite a feat considering that Lee’s now on his 4th team in less than a calendar year. While that certainly may be the case (that Smoak is the best player to change hands in exchange for Lee), the praise and adulation for him is certainly not universal. B-Pro’s Christina Kahrl says that “his track record as a hitting prospect has been something less than excellent, making him more of a deep purple than a true-blue prospect.” He’s 23 years old and is thought of as a Top 10 or 20 prospect in all of MLB, so there must be some fire with Smoak (see what I did there), but he also has a career .473 OPS against LHP in MiLB, so it’s not as if Smoak is the perfect prospect that some have made him out to be in a cursory glance.

There’s no question that he comes with a pedigree that can’t be matched by any player that has previously been traded for Lee and, as a quick aside, it is interesting that Fangraphs notes that “Smoak is probably better than Matt LaPorta was at the time of the Brewers acquisition of CC Sabathia in 2008, the gold standard of pitcher rental deals” which is the first time that I’ve heard the term “gold standard of pitcher rental deals” associated with a trade that was deemed a bust until…well, until Matt LaPorta started hitting upon his return from Columbus a couple of weeks back.

Back to this Lee situation and seeing the “centerpiece” being a 1B, I’m reminded of something that Ken Rosenthal recently wrote about the Diamondbacks possibly trading Dan Haren. He wrote that “a team that moves an ace under long-term control would need young starting pitching back, and such deals rarely materialize” which certainly holds some legitimacy if you look at how infrequently young starting pitching is dealt. If the Indians were targeting pitching in last year’s “Trading Season” – and they were in an attempt to create that “Layer Cake of Arms” that we’ve been talking about, even if a mid-season review of their pitching prospects is less than encouraging – perhaps it speaks to the idea that Smoak is the highest-rated prospect dealt for Lee.

Smoak certainly seems to be the key part in this deal (and color me surprised that the Mariners allegedly passed on Yankees’ prospect Jesus Montero in favor of Smoak…which only delays the inevitability of Lee going to the Bronx), but remember that the Indians did receive two arms in the Lee deal, one a perennial Top-100 prospect in Carlos Carrasco and the “key to the deal” in Jason Knapp. While Knapp still hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2010, Carrasco remains the piece that can make the Lee deal a marginal success in the next year or so, if what Jon Steiner at WFNY comes to pass:
If he can keep his MLB strikeouts and walks close to his AAA rates, and slightly cut his home run rates, he can be a sub-3.50 ERA pitcher. This was the sort of upside that the Indians’ front office likely saw when they asked that Carrasco be included in the Cliff Lee deal.

Interestingly, one of the “big names” that was supposedly on the table from the Twins was their AAA catcher Wilson Ramos and, while he was somehow universally regarded as a bona-fide top catching prospect in all of this hullabaloo, let me drop this knowledge on you…

Ramos is currently a 22-year-old backstop in AAA who was rated as the #58 prospect by Baseball America heading into the season. He’s struggled mightily at AAA this year, posting only a .208 BA / .244 OBP / .319 SLG / .563 OPS in 218 plate appearances there, but he’s still very highly regarded as a catcher (remember, he’s only 22) whose eventual chance in MLB almost certainly isn’t going to come in the Twin Cities.

Why is this relevant?
Last year, a 22-year-old catcher was traded for the services of Clifton Phifer...you may know him as Tofu Lou or simply as Lou Marson. Going into the 2009 season, the 23-year-old Marson was ranked as the #66 prospect by Baseball America and struggled somewhat in AAA while still in the Phillies' organization, posting a line of .294 BA / .382 OBP / .370 SLG / .751 OPS in the 241 PA that he accumulated prior to getting traded.

Let me put this in clearer terms:
Wilson Ramos - #58 Prospect in MLB heading into 2010
.563 OPS in AAA (218 PA) as a 22-year-old in 2010

Lou Marson - #66 Prospect in MLB heading into 2009
.751 OPS in AAA (241 PA) as a 23-year-old in 2009 prior to trade

That year makes a difference though with Ramos in AAA as a 22-year-old is more impressive than Marson being there as a 23-year-old, right?
Sure, age plays a factor in any prospect’s development...but Marson turned 23 on June 26th of 2009 while Ramos will turn 23 on August 10th of 2010. So yes, there is an age difference between the two but it's about 6 weeks, not the full year that you may think. Certainly, Marson’s performance in MLB in 2010 has colored our view of him and his capability to be an everyday MLB catcher, but Ramos is seen as what could be the centerpiece of a deal that would bring Lee to Minnesota. Obviously, I’m not attempting to pass off Lou Marson as a player that should be deemed as the centerpiece of any trade involving CP Lee, I’m only trying to provide some perspective in terms of players that were acquired by the Indians for Lee and how they relate to these names (like Ramos’) that have been bandied about as “top prospects”.

Just to keep it on this topic, Jason Donald currently has a 112 OPS+ and (not sure if you’re ready for this) but among middle infielders in the AL with more than 150 plate appearances, that would put Donald as the player with the 4th highest OPS+ behind Robbie Cano, Dustin PEDroia, and Ian Kinsler. It puts him ahead of Derek Jeter, Orlando Hudson, Howie Kendrick, Marco Scutaro on that list. The only other player that is 25 years old (other than Donald) is the Rays’ Sean Rodriguez.

His defense has been shaky at best (to be kind) and 29 K to 10 BB in 44 games is not all that encouraging, but the Indians are not quite a year removed from the Lee deal and are about to promote Carrasco to the big-league rotation (something that should have been done when Huff was sent down), Donald has shown that he should be in the mix as a middle infielder for the foreseeable future and Lou Marson remains in AAA attempting to resurrect his trade value (did you notice that he was passed over by Gimenez to replace Mike Redmond as the back-up catcher), something he’s struggled with as he’s sitting on a .618 OPS currently in Columbus.

How is that haul going to compare to the one that Seattle just received for Lee, or even the trio that made their way to Philly for Lee? Ask me in a couple of years, as Smoak comes with the highest prospect ranking attached to his name, but realizing that Andy Marte was ranked as the #11 Prospect in all of MiLB prior to 2004, as the #4 Prospect in MiLB prior to 2005, and the #14 Prospect in all of MiLB prior to 2006

Back to Jason Donald in terms of the Lee deal, the recent (and inexplicable) success of Sonny Nix begs the question of what do the Indians should do at 2B when Asdrubal Cabrera returns with Donald and Nix both playing relatively well. Terry Pluto asserts on Donald that “he will see action (along with Nix) at second base when Asdrubal Cabrera returns from his broken arm to play short in a few weeks”, but I think an easier solution exists.

While Nix is certainly a nice story and has earned playing time, let’s remember that Nix’s MLB OPS was .658 coming into the season and that his offense on the South Side was bad enough (.513 OPS) that the offensively-challenged White Sox actually cut him. Certainly, he’s benefited from everyday plate appearances in Cleveland and has earned the chance to show that he’s closer to the player he’s been in Cleveland (with his .953 OPS) than he was in years prior. However, seeing as how Nix’s career OPS in AAA is .748 and in AA is .642, one would think that a GIANT regression is somewhere on the horizon for him at the plate.

That being said, even with a offensive drop-off, I wouldn’t simply dismiss Nix out of hand and remove him from the discussion going forward as he’s earned more than that, even in his limited time. Thus, if you want the solution as to what the team could do with Nix and Donald after Cabrera returns, I think that Nix is the “bridge” who could play 3B once Peralta gets dealt (he’s played 28 of his career 139 MLB games there) or even who plays RF once Kearns gets dealt (he’s played 5 games in RF in MLB) as Nix could turn into a jack-of-all-trades very quickly for the Tribe.

Who knows where Peralta’s going to go, as AC points out, Peralta’s “.245 batting average is second-lowest among qualifying AL third basemen, while his slugging percentage (.383) and on-base percentage (.307) are third-lowest. Jayson Nix has been here two weeks and has the same number of home runs for the Tribe as Peralta does. Hard to imagine there being much of a market for Peralta’s services this summer, unless he gets extremely hot.”

While the interest may not be great in Peralta, I could see the Indians essentially pulling a Paul Byrd-for-Mickey Hall dump with him.
“A Paul Byrd-for-who”?
Exactly…

Regardless of where Jhonny goes (and it may just be to the bench if the Indians really can’t find a taker for him), if the Indians want to give Jared Goedert a shot at 3B when Peralta disappears, perhaps Nix can become that late-blooming Casey Blake-type player who fills in the gaps around the young talent while providing a solid glove, some RH pop in the lineup, and the flexibility to do exactly what Lacey Cake did (to little critical acclaim) when he established himself in the early stages of the mid-2000s rebuild/reload.

Debating Sonny Nix’s eventual role with the team going forward is where we find ourselves in mid-July as the Indians’ transformation into the young team that many thought they would look like out of Spring Training is finally gaining traction. Of course, compared to the developments across Gateway Plaza over the last week, “deciding” upon the landing spot for a 27-year-old middle infielder that was cut by a divisional rival, it actually provides a needed respite from the fallout of “The Decision”.

The Sun Will Rise Tomorrow

The Groundlings

While the Indians’ season passes over the real half-way point and draws closer to the “Midsummer Classic” with their best three offensive players coming into the season on the DL and with the extended auditions continuing in earnest around the diamond, the opinion that the starting staff has been the most pleasant surprise of the 2010 season isn’t really an opinion at all – it has become a fact.

While the overall 4.49 ERA of the starters remains underwhelming, as it ranks the team 11th of the 14 MLB teams, the perception coming into the season that the rotation would not only be the team’s undoing, but also the weak link well past this season has to be amended to a degree. Though the Indians’ current rotation isn’t going to remind anyone of the 1954 staff of Garcia, Lemon, Wynn, and Feller, coming into the season, the thought was pervasive that the Indians’ rotation would be a constantly-evolving, consistently nauseating group of arms either attempting to re-establish themselves in MLB or gaining a toehold in a Big League rotation.

With Carmona headed off to the All-Star team, Justin Masterson riding a 7-game “mini-wave” in which he’s posted a 3.59 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, and Mitch Talbot sitting on a 3.86 ERA after more than 100 MLB IP, the Indians may have essentially identified three pitchers that whose names they can write in pen into the rotation, for 2011 at least. While those three still may represent middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation arms for a perennial contender, the renaissance of Fausto and the recent adjustments of Masterson in particular project some optimism for the future from the rubber.

While looking at those two players in particular (Carmona and Masterson) an interesting statistical trend jumps out at you and looking into it further, a bona fide trend is emerging in the Indians’ organization. Once you look past the fact that the Indians’ rotation strikes out the fewest batters (5.22 K/9) in the AL and have the second highest WHIP (1.45) in the AL, you start to realize that the fact that the Indians seem to be loading up on big, power, groundball-inducing arms starts to take shape. However, the trend isn’t just applying to the likes of Carmona and Masterson as it goes up and down the organization.

Before delving into that, consider for a moment how the Indians’ starters this year rank in Ground Ball Percentage, Fly Ball Percentage, and Ratio of Ground Balls to Fly Balls:
GB% - 52.5% (highest in MLB for starters)
FB% - 30.6% (lowest in MLB for starters)
GB/FB – 1.72 (highest in MLB for starters)

It bears mentioning that no team’s rotation has topped the 52% GB rate since the 2005 Cardinals and those Cardinals’ starters are, in fact, the only rotation to top that number in the last 10 years in MLB...yet that’s where the Tribe’s rotation sits more than half-way through the season.

Realizing that the average GB% for MLB pitchers is about 45%, take a look at the Indians' rotation and their GB% in the context of all qualified MLB Starting Pitchers:
Masterson – 64.2 GB% (2nd in MLB)
Carmona – 58.1 GB% (4th in MLB)
Westbrook – 52.8 GB% (12th in MLB)
Talbot – 49.7 GB% (26th in MLB)

How about those same players’ GB/FB and rank among all qualified MLB Starting Pitchers:
Masterson – 3.11 GB/FB (2nd in MLB)
Carmona – 2.01 GB/FB (7th in MLB)
Westbrook – 1.90 GB/FB (9th in MLB)
Talbot – 1.49 GB/FB (31st in MLB)

Talbot’s ratios certainly pale in comparison to the numbers of the other three bona-fide sinkerballers, but consider that Talbot’s GB% in his MiLB career was 53.9% and was over 54% for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons in AAA, which (unlike his 2009) were uninterrupted by injury.

Going further, while Westbrook does not necessarily figure into the mix for 2011 and beyond, let’s not forget that The Babyfaced Bulldog just re-joined the rotation – Aaron Laffey, he of the 61.3 GB% in his MiLB career. Although, as an aside here on Laffey, it is interesting to note that the GB% for Laffey has continuously dropped, both in the Minors and in MLB:
2006 (Kinston/Akron) – 62.5 GB%
2007 (Akron/Buffalo) – 62.2 GB%
2007 (Cleveland) – 62.4 GB%
2008 (Buffalo) – 54.4 GB%
2008 (Cleveland) – 51.1 GB%
2009 (Akron/Columbus) – 45.5 GB%
2009 (Cleveland) – 48.9 GB%
2010 (Columbus) – 45.1 GB%
2010 (Cleveland) – 49.3 GB%

Laffey’s GB/FB has remained pretty consistently in the 1.6 range in MLB (still way down from his career MiLB GB/FB of 2.49), but his GB% has plummeted over the last three years in partcular, something that certainly bears watching...and something that maybe even provides an answer as to why Laffey seems to have flat-lined in the past three years.

But I digress...
Back to this high GB% that the Indians’ two most promising arms going forward (Carmona and Masterson) share as, after reading the phenomenal write-up by my Beyond the Boxscore colleague Satchel Price (and it really is worth a read), I was struck by him writing that last year's #1 pick Alex White has been inducing groundballs at a rapid rate on the farm this year.

Look a little deeper into the Layer Cake of arms and there’s Alex White and his 57.8 GB% in Kinston and Akron this year (his GB% is 55.5% in his MiLB career) perhaps projecting as a rotational option in 2011 or 2012 with the Indians’ next logical promotion to the rotation, Carlos Carrasco, posting the highest GB% of his MiLB career since low-A ball in Columbus.

No seriously, Carrasco’s 47.8 GB% in Columbus, while not reaching Mastersonian levels, is an uptick from the 40.6% last year and represents a healthy increase over his career 43.8 GB% that he’s compiled in his MiLB career. While these high GB% numbers certainly aren’t universal among all Indians’ starters up and down the system, it is worth mentioning that the 3rd Round Pick from last year’s draft, Joe Gardner, is sitting an on almost incomprehensible 70.8 GB% in Lake County and Kinston this year as he has rocketed into relevance (he’s also struck out 99 hitters in 88 1/3 IP this year) on the prospect map. Just to put what Gardner has done in his first professional season, he has faced 345 batters, has struck out 97 of them (28.1%) and has induced groundballs from 138 of the hitters (40%), meaning that nearly 70% of the hitters that he’s faced have either whiffed or hit grounders.

It has to be asked about all these groundball pitchers then…what gives here – is this merely a statistical anomaly, or maybe simply a matter of finding and analyzing the pitchers most likely to induce grounders in the organization?

Given the fact that Masterson, Talbot, White, and Gardner all joined the organization last year and that Carrasco’s GB% number has jumped significantly this year in AAA, I think that something is larger at play here. While I’m not going to jump to the “groundball pitchers are the new market inefficiency” card, it represents more than just a mere coincidence that the Indians suddenly find themselves with pitchers whose GB% project to be higher than the MLB average, sometimes MUCH higher.

Whether the Indians have attempted to target pitchers who may have fallen “under the radar” because of lower K rates and higher GB rates (because every team is looking for high-K pitchers) in some of their recent acquisitions can certainly be debated. It is possible that, given that the team could be looking for angles to stockpile as many arms as possible to overcome attrition and injury rates, it certainly represents an interesting strategy.

One would think that the movement toward more GB pitchers would prompt some acquisitions to improve the infield defense (how does everyone like Sonny Nix?) and the trade of Branyan and the coming trade of Peralta will likely improve the infield defense, if even by virtue of addition by subtraction. However, the sudden predilection that the Indians have for groundball-inducing pitchers (and a lot of them) is too obvious and top-heavy in the organization to ignore.

While watching Carmona and Masterson (and maybe Talbot and Laffey) serve up those pitches that quickly find their way into the ground for the rest of the year, realize that there could be more of that on the way to the pitching mound in the coming years as the infield grass and dirt at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario could become well-worn.

A Lazy Fourth with More Bad News

On a Sunday in which the All-Star rosters are announced and some other prolonged nonsense is occurring on the Cleveland sports scene, let’s get going right off the bat to talk about the fact that The BLC (the assumed All-Star Rep for the Indians prior to today) is off to the DL, where he’s likely to stay for 6 to 8 weeks. Just doing some quick math, that would put Choo’s return sometime in late August or September as the Indians are about to spend the rest of the month of July without the three players who projected as their best players (Sizemore, Cabrera, and Choo) going into the season. While Choo’s injury is certainly unfortunate, as the offense had finally started to show prolonged signs of life with a Choo-Santana-Hafner middle of the order with other pieces complementing that mix (mainly LaPorta since his recall), the Indians ready themselves for more time without a key component to their team.

If there was any thought that everything (and I do mean EVERYTHING) had to go perfectly for this team to sniff contention and get a look at .500, the injuries to Sizemore, Cabrera, and Choo just provide another sobering realization that the Indians are quite a bit away from being able to absorb the loss of one of those players, much less all three.

In Choo’s place, Mike Brantley returns to the North Coast with the assumption that Kearns would move to RF, Crow would move to LF, and Brantley will assume the CF spot and presumably the leadoff spot. While that may look to be optimistic in terms of putting Brantley right back into the mix at the top of the order after his struggles earlier this season with the parent club, he’s just replacing Trevor Crowe (who I think stays in the everyday lineup, just further down it) and his .306 OBP (with a .280 OBP in his last 20 games from the leadoff spot)...so yeah, why not?

One aspect of the Brantley call-up that bears watching is where he plays as it could be telling in terms of where Grady Sizemore’s eventual position will be. Most indications are that Brantley will be playing CF, which could mean that the Indians see Brantley-CF, Sizemore-LF as the alignment for 2011 and beyond. While any intimation that Sizemore wouldn’t automatically return to CF could be seen as heresy in some parts, the assumption that Sizemore will come back from a very serious knee surgery in the same shape as he was before it shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Thus, where Brantley spends most of his time through the 2010 season in the field could provide som clues as to what the Indians realistically expect from Sizemore in the OF after his surgery. That may be overanalyzing it, but you would imagine that the Indians would want to get Brantley as much experience as possible in the outfield of Carnegie and Ontario in what is assumed to be his permanent position for the next 6 years or so.

As for Choo’s injury preventing him from being the All-Star Rep for the Tribe, my esteemed TCF colleague Steve Buffum (as usual) nails the case for the player who was all but certain to be the lone Indians’ All-Star representative as he lays out the case for The BLC to be included on the All-Star roster for 2010.

Truthfully, I’m of the mind that the All-Star game selection process and inclusion /exclusion of certain players simply doesn’t really interest me. Like Buffum, maybe I would have stayed up to watch Choo hit once and go to bed, so if you care about the All-Star Game, bully for you as there’s going to be a waterfall of pieces coming at you on “who made it who shouldn’t have” and “who got screwed the worst”. For me, it’s a three day break from baseball that I care about, so…no, I’m not a fan of it.
As for who makes it instead of Choo…sorry it just doesn’t interest me that much.

Back to the news of Choo hitting the DL coming after the Indians have won 6 of their last 7, some will take the injury as a sign that “just as the Indians were getting some momentum…this happens”. While that may be true to some extent and certainly the last week has been much more enjoyable to watch and follow than the previous three months, isn’t there something to seeing a lost season go deeper into the wilderness?

My first reaction when I heard that Choo was out for 6 to 8 weeks was not one of anger, more one of resignation, as in “well, if this is going to happen…this might as well be the season for it”. It’s not going to make the next two months that much more compelling to watch, but the Indians now have ANOTHER opportunity for a young player to establish himself in MLB with consistent AB. Seeing as how the Indians know what they have in Choo, why not keep the conveyer belt going to the parent club to find out as much as possible about as many players as possible in 2010?

It’s an interesting concept in the context of a Tim Marchman piece in SI.com as he relates the idea that the early success of the Padres and Blue Jays, conveying that the teams winning in the beginning of the 2010 season may not necessarily be the best thing for both of those franchises, who are in need of a continued overhaul:
There is always a broader picture, and playing to win today is not always the same thing as playing to win. This is generally understood in baseball, a sport where executives will in certain circumstances privately admit to being more interested in high draft picks than in fielding their best team.
--snip--
Winning is of course a good thing, the best thing, and no real fan or real ballplayer is ever going to care a whit for the carefully laid schemes of executives when weighed against the prospect of their team not embarrassing itself...A win now is not the same as a win when it counts.

That’s not brought up to intimate that this feeling of rock-bottom that pervaded every thought in the first couple of months of the season is preferable to the excitement that some in San Diego and Toronto (though the turnstiles there don’t suggest that the excitement is translating to attendance as each ranks in the lower third of MLB attendance, both DOWN from last year’s average attendance number), nor is it to suggest that this tear-it-down then build-it-back-up mentality is the most prudent path to take every 5 years or so, as the answer to that is coming in the...well, next 5 years or so.

Rather, it raises an interesting question that needs to be asked to all of MLB, less about 6 to 8 teams, which would be – is it better to muddle along in a middling sense, trying to hit 82 wins every year on a nice even plane, hoping to get lucky and sneak into the playoffs once a decade or is it better to ride the roller coaster and hope that the peaks of the hills are high enough that they take the sharp edges off the depths of the valleys?

As frustrating even as the down years were in the late-2000’s and as soul-crushing as the horrific starts were, let’s not forget that the “down” years of the late-2000’s were actually instrumental in some of the bright spots that we’ve seen over the last few years and are seeing today in terms of young players.

Not following me?
Well, the 2006 “issues” that undermined the momentum from the 2005 push ultimately brought Choo and Cabrera in for Benuardo and that the 2008 “struggles” that likely deep-sixed the idea that 2007 was ever happening anytime soon brought Santana in for Casey Blake.

Anybody miss Benuardo or Lacey Cake, players who almost certainly would have stayed on the roster through the 2006 and 2008 season if things had gone according to “The Plan” and the Indians had contended throughout?

Sure, the CC deal is one that certainly turned the knife a little, but the last week has seen the Matt LaPorta that we all thought we were getting back in 2008. After hitting just 5 XBH in his first stint with the Tribe over 131 PA, LaPorta has 4 in the 28 PA that he’s accumulated since returning en route to a 1.189 OPS (small sample siren) since his return.

As horrifying as 2006 and 2008 were, where would this team be without Choo and Santana and Cabrera and (perhaps) LaPorta and Brantley?

Certainly that, if nothing else, is a stunning indictment of the teams’ inability to generate the type of players who should be arriving WITH the likes of Choo and Santana and LaPorta instead of playing bit parts like Trevor Crowe is, but some good can come from these completely lost seasons and we’re going to see more of the fruit from the seeds sown during the 2006 and 2008 trainwrecks. What the seeds of the 2010 abomination will bear won’t be known for quite a while, but the Indians certainly have mastered the “lows of the low” rather than walking that line of mediocrity.

As a quick aside here in light of some intimations that the Dodgers should consider trading Matt Kemp because of his regressions this year and his clashing with Joe Torre, does anyone remember this report back in the summer of 2006 about Los Angeles’ owner Frank McCourt nixing a deal that would have sent Sabathia, Blake, and Carroll to the Dodgers for a package of players:
Shortly after the Milwaukee Brewers finalized a trade for reigning American League Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia on Monday, the Daily News learned that sometime in the days leading up to that deal, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt nixed a trade that would have brought Sabathia to Los Angeles, along with Indians third baseman Casey Blake and utility man Jamey Carroll.
--snip--
The Indians are looking to fill several holes for the future, with a corner outfielder believed to be high on their wish list. That probably means power-hitting Matt Kemp, arguably the Dodgers’ hottest commodity as the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline nears, would have been included in the deal.
It also is unclear whether the Indians would have been willing to pay a portion of the salaries of the players the Dodgers would have been acquiring. If not, the trade presumably would have pushed the Dodgers’ payroll to somewhere between $125 and $130 million.

In case you clicked on the link, you’ll notice that the link is to a forum as it looks like the original piece is not in the archives of the paper in which it originally appeared. Nevertheless, have you noticed where Blake and Carroll are currently drawing paychecks (it’s Chavez Ravine...if you didn’t know) and did you catch the part about “whether the Indians would have been willing to pay a portion of the salaries of the players the Dodgers would have been acquiring” as the Indians DID pay all of the remaining money on Blake's deal to net Santana and the already-forgotten Bones Meloan.

What could that haul have meant?
Obviously, this is all conjecture (even on the part of the original writer), but Kemp, Santana, and one of their young starters like James McDonald or Scott Elbert (both of whom have struggled to date in MLB) or a young infielder like Blake DeWitt or Chin-lung Hu (both of whom have also struggled to date in MLB) could have certainly been an agreed-upon deal.
Ultimately, it was nixed by Frank McCourt so that answer remains out in the air somewhere…

What is interesting about that bit of conjecture in hindsight is to look at all of the pieces being written about Cliff Lee’s perceived value as he now is in the same place that Sabathia was in 2008, where his acquiring team is renting Lee for only a few months with draft picks likely to come their way when (not if) CP Lee dons the pinstripes in 2011.

To wit, check out what Sweet Pete Gammons had to say on the topic of Lee’s current trade value:
But before you start to thinking about the Mariners getting the equivalent of what the Indians stole from the Expos (Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips) for Bartolo Colon, consider what Lee brought the Indians and Phillies. After he won the Cy Young Award. And had a favorable contract.
The Indians traded Lee to the then-reigning World Series champion Phillies for Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp. Donald has done a creditable job as a utility infielder, hitting .254, with promise. Catcher Lou Marson has been a disappointment, hitting .191; he is better than that, but now Carlos Santana is in town, and Santana is a franchise player. Carrasco is 6-3 in Columbus but has yet to prove he can pitch in the Major Leagues, while Jason Knapp is working to get healthy and is 2-7 in low A ball.
That, from a big market team with a fabulous fan base that thought it could win it all again.
Then when the Phillies traded away top prospects for Roy Halladay and were told that it would take CC Sabathia money to extend Lee, they moved him to Seattle for Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez and Tyson Gillies. Aumont was demoted to A ball and has a 7.01 ERA, Ramirez is at Double-A and has a 4.31 ERA on the year, while Gillies is hitting .238 in Double-A.

Gammons then goes on to list all of the young players who will NOT be traded for Lee, saying that “those deals are hard to come by in today’s economy, with what some traditionalists feel is an overinflated worth of young, low-salaried players.”

Of course, the Indians’ third annual “Sale of Everything That Isn’t Nailed Down” doesn’t coincide favorably with this “overinflated worth of young, low-salaried players”, but the Indians’ returns even since 2008 (Santana, LaPorta, Masterson, C. Perez, Talbot, Donald, Brantley, Hagadone, Price, Todd, Carrasco, Marson, Barnes, Bryson, etc.) surely don’t embarrass.

Moving on (and as long as we’re talking that third annual sale), here are a couple of nuggets from John Perrotto at B-Pro having to do with the possible comings and goings of the next few weeks:
Indians right-hander Jake Westbrook is drawing increased trade interest with the Cardinals reportedly at the top of the list. … The Indians are also likely to call up Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus and install him as their center fielder and leadoff hitter no later than right after the All-Star break.

Since Brantley’s already on his way to Cleveland…Westbrook to the Cardinals, eh?
You think they have any other hard-throwing relievers they’d be willing to part with?
Lord knows the Indians are familiar with the arms in the system as they chose Jess Todd as the PTBNL last year, allegedly passing on Francisco Samuel. If the Indians eat the remainder of Jake's deal, is it still too greedy to look at Eduardo Sanchez?

While Terry Pluto reports that the Indians are looking for a “compelling trade” to move him, how about the Indians realizing that the compelling fact that Westbrook isn’t likely to be pitching for the Indians next year and some of the pitchers who could be taking his starts for the last 2 months DO figure into the future?

Perhaps the Indians are serious about approaching Westbrook about re-signing with the team for 2011 and maybe longer, but him pitching in St. Louis (or wherever) for two months isn’t going to change that possibility too profoundly. “Compelling” would be the idea that the Indians need to find out what they can about Carlos Carrasco in MLB, among others, and that Westbrook could net them a lottery ticket of a prospect, something that the organization has had success with in recent years.

For more perspective on what the next 27 days looks like for the Tribe, Jon Heymann files his report thusly:
They have been busy sellers the past couple years, as they are one small-market team that understands the need to retool, and they have two viable starters in Fausto Carmona (7-6, 3.68 ERA) and Jake Westbrook (5-4, 4.69) to shop this time. They are said to want to keep outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, young catcher Carlos Santana (of course) and a few of their younger pitchers, but there could be decent activity around them again. Carmona especially looks like a decent fall-back option for the teams that can’t get Lee.

Carmona’s name keeps popping up in all of this innuendo, but I’ll take the word of AC on this when he wrote that “the Tribe isn't going to move Fausto Carmona (contrary to rumor and speculation)” to settle my nerves on that one.

Apropos of absolutely nothing, how about Arizona GM Josh Byrnes being fired (with Jeff Passan of Yahoo having a great piece on Byrnes’ ouster) in Arizona?

Not sure if anyone remembers this, but Byrnes cut his teeth, among others (and this is a must-click link), in the Indians’ organization and since most indications are that he won’t be without a job for long (and that could mean he goes back to Boston), how about the idea that he could return to his “roots” and re-join the Tribe Front Office.

Finally, as we all settle in for some cold drinks at the barbecue before watching the night sky light up with fireworks, here’s a bit of info that you can take to any Independence Day function and stop any sports fan dead in their tracks. It comes from Craig Calcaterra at HBT, who is relaying a Darren Rovell report from CNBC on the Yankees' revenue in 2009. There are too many punches to the stomach (like the fact that “the Yankees’ postseason ticket revenue alone brought in enough money to cover the payroll for 12 Major League teams this year”) to count, but if we’re staying with the beatdown/bully analogy, here’s the set-up...
Rovell goes on to report that the Yankees are suspected to take in about $600 million. Even with a $200 million payroll, a luxury tax of $25 million and however much they pay in revenue sharing, they’re still able -- if they choose to anyway -- buy and sell more or less anyone they want.

...and the haymaker deeper in Rovell's piece:
A baseball insider told CNBC that the Yankees will have sold almost as many seats as they did all of last season by the all-star break.

Lest you forget, Forbes listed the Yankees’ revenue as $441M a mere three months ago (the Indians’ was $170M) and now the intimation is out there that the Yankees’ revenue is closer to $600M and will likely increase as their attendance goes higher. Yep, the Yankees’ money-making machine is just getting started once all of the ticket revenue becomes the icing on an already rich cake.

Enjoy a safe Independence Day everybody...

Tomahawks Turning the Page

On the heels of the Indians winning three in a row (with Kerry Wood saving all three games) and the team winning games that they’ve made a habit of losing all season long, let’s get the Tomahawks out there so as not to jinx this newfound “success”.
And with that, they’re in the air as long as a Matt MaTola bomb to CF…
__________

With Russell Branyan off to re-join the Mariners as M’s GM Jack Z is given the benefit of the doubt once again in national coverage (despite the fact that the team he put together to contend in 2010 is not much closer to the top of the AL West than the Indians are in the AL Central), an interesting thought occurred to me – with Branyan gone, who becomes the Whipping Boy and Public Enemy #1 of Indians’ fans? That is, Branyan’s mere presence on the roster made stomachs turn for some as the feeling that he was blocking Matt LaPorta at 1B and that he represented a unnecessary veteran signing for an organization with a history of such unnecessary veteran signings.

For some, Branyan fell right in line with the likes Dellichaels (David and Jason), Oldberto Hernandez, and Jason Johnson – all of whom spent their time on the whipping post for fans and media alike. Of course, Branyan hit well in his brief time with the Tribe, posting the 3rd highest OPS on the team, but he became a lightning rod for criticism as the poster boy for all that was wrong with the Indians’ manner of bringing in veterans to play in front of prospects.

If you’ll remember, Casey Blake spent most of his career in Cleveland reviled as “just a guy” and as Wedge’s Wichita State buddy as intimations that he had some sort of incriminating photos of Indians’ brass represented the only reason that Blake remained in the lineup. While Blake was largely under-appreciated as an Indian, the feelings about him came not as a result of his play as much as the perception that he represented something disappointing about the organization. The same could be said of Branyan coming to “represent” all that is wrong in the offices of Carnegie and Ontario, as he spent his 3 (most recent) months as an Indian with writers constantly questioning what he was doing on the roster and remaining firmly in the cross-hairs of the fanbase.

That all being said, with Branyan now gone to the Pacific Northwest, who assumes that place on the mantle, as the subject of public derision. Which Indians’ player will induce the most profanity or eye-rolls or general contempt?

Will it revert back to Peralta, with the idea that he (like no other) represents that unfulfilled potential that was never realized from 2005 to 2010?

Maybe for a little while, but even if they can’t move Peralta via a trade (and other than the Padres, I fail to see a contender for whom Jhonny represents an upgrade at 3B), he’s not long for Cleveland. Similarly, Kerry Wood or even Jake Westbrook (who has largely been given the benefit of the doubt in terms of fan reaction to his contract) aren’t here for much longer to be pointed to as massive contract mistakes. Sure, Hafner’s going to be floating around for a while as a “massive contract mistake”, but the feelings for him range closer to pity than anger.

Perhaps it becomes a player like Trevor Crowe or Dave Huff as they become roster reminders of the struggles of the Indians’ recent draft history. Or maybe one of the recently acquired young players becomes that whipping boy, as the symbol for the failure to bring in real talent for the likes of Sabathia and Lee (MaTola...I’m looking at you if you need some motivation) or maybe the Indians will give the fans what they “need” this coming off-season in terms of a new sacrificial lamb.

Make no mistake, Cleveland fans do “need” that player upon whom they heap their unhappiness – the player who represents all that is wrong with the team and whose mere presence serves as a reminder of organizational shortcomings. Branyan is gone, as is Derek Anderson, with Mo Williams possibly on their heels out of town.

Whichever Indian assumes the role of whipping boy that is now off of Branyan’s shoulders will reveal itself on sports talk radio and online message boards and in the local fishwraps over the coming months, it’s a target that's been worn by many before and will be worn by many after.
__________

As a quick aside on the Branyan trade, Ken Rosenthal has this little bit from an MLB GM, which sound about right in terms of evaluating the trade:
“They aren’t real good prospects, but they aren’t nothing, either,” one rival GM said. Other executives shared that opinion, and one said that his team viewed Diaz as a decent prospect.

Regardless of whether those two are just organizational fodder and depth or something more (and I tend to think the former), does anyone else love the fact that the AAA OF that the Indians acquired has a first name of “Ezequial”?

Making the assumption that it’s pronounced like “Ezekial”, how does this guy (assuming he ever makes it to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario) not use some sort of reference to the Samuel L. Jackson monologue from “Pulp Fiction”, during which he recites Ezekial 25:17?

Is it premature to simply refer to him as “Zeke” Carrera?
Yes, these are the things that clutter my head...
__________

With the small sample size sirens ringing as loudly as possible and me attempting to rein in my excitement for The Axe Man, it bears mentioning of where Santana’s performance to date at the plate puts him in the context of MLB leaders with at least 60 PA.
Why 60...because Santana had 64 going into Tuesday’s game:
OPS+: 221 (1st)
OPS: 1.179 (1st)
OBP: .453 (3rd)
SLG: .725 (1st)
XBH%: 18.8% (1st)
K/BB: 0.50 (1st)
AB/HR: 12.8 (3rd)

Too soon...too much hype?
Probably, but let me point this out:
Jason Heyward – Through First 63 PA in 2010
.269 BA / .397 OBP / .558 SLG / .955 OPS with 3 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 10 BB and 19 K

Carlos Santana – Through First 64 PA in 2010
.333 BA / .453 OBP / .725 SLG / 1.179 OPS with 8 2B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12 BB and 6 K

Remember the hype that surrounded Heyward’s start, dubbing him the “J-Hey Kid” and proclaiming him as the next superstar in baseball?

Yes, Heyward is 20 and Santana is 24 but Heyward is also an OF while Santana is a C, meaning that the positional value of The Axe Man’s weapon at the plate makes him infinitely more valuable than a slugging OF. Whether he can keep up this absurd pace (or anything close to it) remains to be seen, but in a lost season, it’s certainly become a fun development to follow.
__________

On the topic of Santana, allow me to put on my rose-colored glasses here, but is anyone else seeing a top-to-middle-of-the-order that genuinely elicits excitement built around Santana and Choo? Throw in a healthy Cabrera above them, and you can start to see how the pieces could start to come together among the assumed top 5 in the lineup for 2011. Sizemore and his health are still a HUGE wild card here and Hafner’s going to be in the mix somewhere (here are the numbers for Hafner’s last 41 games....272 BA / .387 OBP / .456 SLG / .843 OPS with 8 2B and 5 HR), but the Indians actually have the makings of a potent lineup somewhere in there.

Of course, much still has to go right for those projected contributors to form a dynamic, run-scoring offense and when you look at those presumed 5 (Santana, Choo, Cabrera, Sizemore, and Hafner), there is one obvious missing element – a RH bat. Sure, Santana is a switch-hitter as is Cabrera, but looking at those 5, you start to realize how important the development of Matt LaPorta is to augment those 5 in the lineup to not only break up the LH bats, but also to provide the power that he was supposed to arrive with from Milwaukee.

Obviously, this is wildly premature, but the 6 players likely figure into the top 6 slots of the lineup for 2010 (Santana, LaPorta, Cabrera, Sizemore, Choo, and Hafner) could go a long way by the end of the season (well…except Sizemore) to establishing some stability in the lineup going forward into 2011. If those 6 can gain some momentum, the final three positions of 2B, 3B, and LF/CF (depending upon where Sizemore ends up playing) can involve breaking in the likes of Donald/Valbuena, Goedert (and eventually The Chiz), and Brantley/Crowe/Carrera in the bottom third of the order in an attempt to flesh out the whole lineup.

Given what we’ve seen all season, does that seem wildly optimistic?
Sure, but that glimmer of positivity was something that was awfully hard to see in the first half of 2010…
__________

As for the future and those positions that could still be up in the air, there was suddenly a lot of conjecture about that LF/CF position with the idea that Mike Brantley will follow Matt LaPorta up to Cleveland, with AC laying out Brantley’s case for a promotion thusly:
Brantley has hit and scored in each of his last six games, batting .464 (13-for-28) with three doubles, a homer, eight RBIs and eight runs. In 21 June games, Brantley is batting .352 (31-for-88) with four doubles, a triple, two homers, 13 RBIs and 14 runs scored while walking 10 times against just eight strikeouts. Consider that before June, Brantley had just six extra-base hits in about a month and a half of action with the Clippers. That lack of power was the biggest knock against him, and he’s addressing it.

It remains to be seen if Brantley can sustain that clip and calling him up after a good month can be taken as either counter-productive to his development (as he’s finally hitting the ball for power in AAA and could fall into bad habits against MLB pitching) or as rewarding him for working on improving a particular aspect of his approach.

As for who’s going to be moving out to make room for Brantley, a case can be made that Trevor Crowe could be sent back to Columbus although the remainder of this season seems tailor-made to see if Crowe can stick as a cheap, 4th OF option for the next couple of years.

Thus, the only other logical step would be that Austin Kearns is not too far behind Branyan heading out of Cleveland. Much of the talk has surrounded Kearns heading to Boston, but given the fact that Kearns can play all 3 OF positions, that he’s cheap, and that he’s had a successful 2010 season (even if he’s struggled recently), there should be a market that might be a step below where it was for Mark DeRosa at this time last year. Plenty of teams could use a versatile OF and a teams like the Padres (cumulative OPS of their LF - .572) and Braves (cumulative OPS of their LF - .636) could use a major improvement in LF, just as the Phillies could likely benefit from giving Raul Ibanez a break in LF (and with their 3B, Placido Polanco, heading to the DL, can anyone say “package deal”?); so the suitors out there for Kearns shouldn’t be lacking.

What he brings back is another story as Kearns looks like a natural fit for the Red Sox (and wouldn’t it be interesting if Lou Marson is involved in a deal like that with Victor hitting the DL, although this idea that Santana could see some time at 1B next year could be a signal that the Indians aren’t done with Tofu Lou just yet), but the Indians can move Kearns now to maximize their return without salary remaining on his contract being an issue the way that it is for players like Westbrook, Wood, and Peralta.

Regardless of when it happens, it’s likely that Kearns is not long for the North Coast and Mike Brantley will ascend to replace him, looking to improve on the .416 OPS he compiled in his brief time with the Indians to start the season. While it is encouraging that the Indians feel that Brantley is ready for the everyday lineup in Cleveland, it is worth mentioning that his career line in AAA is .282 BA / .362 OBP / .376 SLG / .738 OPS over what has now been 790 plate appearances a step away from MLB.

Perhaps the “light has gone on” for Brantley (now 23 years old) and maybe the Indians are right to promote him while he’s going good, but Brantley still has a .231 BA / .278 OBP / .231 SLG / .509 OPS against LHP this year in AAA and June represents the first month all season that he’s had an OPS over .740 (his June OPS is .914) after doing so only in July (.764) and August (.783) of last year.

The Indians are certainly not flush with other options for LF, so it remains to be seen if Brantley’s recent hot streak in AAA is just that (a hot streak) or a decided shift in his approach. When he does return to Cleveland and when Jason Donald’s wrist allows him to get back into the game, the lineup will look closer to what most thought it would look like this year. The return of Asdrubal Cabrera will only make that “projected” lineup closer to reality as the Indians attempt to finally work in this talented youth en masse to a lineup that is showing signs of life.
__________

The page is starting to turn at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and, after reading the words on the previous pages that made up the first half of 2010, the page turn was certainly needed.

A Lazy Sunday Off the Bus

After having been saved from watching the Indians fall further and further away from even sniffing respectability by being out of town all week, a Sunday morning after an all day drive from Wisconsin is a welcome respite from the traffic in Chicago and travelling with two young boys. While I was away, the Indians, continued to mire in this ugly state of limbo that’s been on hand since the Sizemore/Cabrera injuries, as the Indians attempt to walk the balance beam by “showcasing the veterans” and working in the young players who, with the exception of Santana, simply aren’t taking the opportunity and running with it. If the Indians have been trying to walk that aforementioned balance beam, the result in the first half of the season has been that they’ve put a product on the field that has given the feeling of straddling the balance beam…and I don’t mean in the good way, more of the painful variety.

This state of limbo, where players that have no future in Cleveland have not yet fully given way to players who are supposed to have a future in Cleveland is what we’ve been waiting for all year to finally come to an end as the strategy of treading water until the veterans would be moved and the prospects would arrive en masse has eluded us thus far. Of course the beginning of that “strategy” possibly changing occurred late last night as the Mariners inexplicably acquired Rusty Branyan, giving up AAA OF Ezequial Carrera and Single-A SS Juan Diaz. Just a day after Paul Hoynes asserted that the Indians might be looking to finally make some moves, referencing the fact that the Indians turned Benuardo (that’s Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez to the uninformed) into The BLC and Asdrubal, the Indians move another limited 1B/DH to the Emerald City for a AAA OF and a younger middle infielder.

While the comparisons to Choo and Cabrera should end there, the move was made obviously to make room for Matt MaTola to FINALLY perhaps get some consistent AB as an Indian, something that has eluded him since entering the organization, at least for the parent club. LaPorta’s struggles in Cleveland qualify as one of the greater disappointments of the early season (though he was given no favors in the way that the Indians bounced him around the lineup and sat him regularly) and he returns to Cleveland hoping to continue the success he found in his (albeit brief time) in Columbus.

As for what was ailing MaTola in the early going, according to Terry Pluto, “when he was playing with a bad hip and turf toe (both requiring surgery), he stopped using his legs to power his swing -- swinging mostly with his arms. After he was healthy, the bad habit remained, robbing him of power. He has returned to his original swing.”

We’re now nearly two full years removed from the Sabathia deal in which LaPorta was purported to be the “near-MLB ready bat” and he now returns looking to finally make good on those projections…or at least show some signs that he is capable of being the middle-of-the-order hitter that this team sorely lacks. That being said, I’m not sure when this revelation on MaTola’s swing was made and it could certainly be argued that MaTola could have possibly made adjustments in Cleveland, but he was able to regain confidence (and hopefully his power stroke) in 68 AB in Columbus, so any lineup that doesn’t include “1B – LaPorta” from this point on in the season is akin to gross negligence on the part of the Indians.

LaPorta should be playing 1B every day from now on and “The Curious Case of Russell Branyan” ends without much fanfare as his inclusion on the team to begin with was odd (other than it being insurance against LaPorta’s injuries…the extent of which are still not really knows and to provide some pop in what was obviously a power-starved lineup) and he heads back to Seattle to play for a team that is as far away from the top of their division as the Indians are.

In terms of the players coming to the Indians, Carrera is a 23-year-old who likely projects as a fringy CF/4th OF because of his speed (27 SB in 2009, 28 SB in 2008) and his high-OBP, with a career MiLB OBP of .374, including an OBP of .441 last year in AA, where he actually won the Southern League batting title by hitting .337. John Sickels put him as the #12 prospect on the M’s farm, with the description of a “speed demon, hits for average, draws walks, good glove, no power, future reserve outfielder but a useful one”. Just to put a bow on it, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus lists him as the 14th best prospect, including this money line on Carrera – “he’s a tiny, speedy outfielder who led the Double-A Southern League in batting and on-base percentage, but he has less power than my cat.”

While not knowing Kevin Goldstein’s cat, Carrera likely slots into the Trevor Crowe/Mike Brantley mix to see if the Indians can get two of the three of them to fill the LF (or CF, depending on this microfracture surgery that Sizemore underwent) and 4th OF roles for the foreseeable future.

As for Diaz, he comes to the Indians as a 21-year-old SS who will go to Kinston as the Indians continue their obsession with middle infielders developed by Seattle. He was named to the All-Star team in the California League, if anything can be gleaned from that. Overall, his numbers for 2010 are promising (.295 BA / .345 OBP / .433 SLG / .779 OPS), particularly for a young middle infielder, but at this point he simply enters into a organizational need at SS, evidenced by the presence of Andy Hernandez, Brian Bixler, and most recently Sonny Nix.

Maybe the two prospects the Indians received turn into something as even Rob Neyer doesn’t seem that dismissive of the return:
In addition to that promising young outfielder (Carrera), the infielder (Diaz) isn’t exactly chopped liver, either; he wasn’t listed among the Mariners’ notable prospects this spring, but he’s only 21, has been solid for two straight seasons in the California League, and seems to have at least a moderately decent shot at someday making the majors.

But just moderately. And Carrera, who played well enough last year in Double-A to establish himself as a decent prospect, is hitting .268/.339/.315 this year in Triple-A. He’s 23 with room to grow, but didn’t figure to beat Ichiro Suzuki or Franklin Gutierrez or even Michael Saunders out of a job anytime soon.

Where they eventually fit will come out in the wash over the next few years as this move was made nearly exclusively to get a now-healthy (body and confidence, apparently) Matt LaPorta back into the mix. While it can be argued that his inclusion in “the mix” should have come from Opening Day, the extent of his injuries have never fully been revealed and Branyan essentially came in the form of a lottery ticket of sorts, as the Indians hoped that Branyan would hit well enough that the prospects they would eventually receive from would be worth 3 months of Branyan providing the insurance against LaPorta’s injuries and putting some pop (albeit intermittently) into the lineup.

What happens next is anyone’s guess on the trade front as the timing of the Branyan deal was made to get LaPorta up to Cleveland now, with the sense of urgency of getting a young player onto the parent club simply not as compelling in LF (where Kearns will be dealt), 3B (where the Indians will hope to find a landing spot for Jhonny), or in the rotation (with Westbrook probably going once all of the bigger names find new addresses). It’s likely that Kearns is the next one to go, perhaps after the All-Star Break as the Indians will begin to filter in more of the names that we’ve heard about in trade hauls over the past few years.

As Buster Olney points out, “Kearns is owed approximately $417K the rest of the season” and while he’s struggled in recent months (while remaining in the middle of the order because no better alternative exists), some team will look for Kearns as a cheap bench option. While that may not merit much by way of a return, let’s all remember that at this time last year, Mark DeRosa was moved to St. Louis, netting the Indians a player that immediately factored into the back end of their bullpen in Chris Perez with him projecting as a Future Closer, regardless of how the “WAR-obsessed” FanGraphs staff may see it.

What’s going to be interesting to see is what kind of return the Indians get for the likes of Kearns and others as last year the obvious emphasis was on adding arms, arms, and more arms. As much as the Indians would probably like to continue to add arms (as their organizational failure to build even a league-average bullpen from year to year continues to baffle), they’re no longer sitting on what could be perceived as big trading chips the way that they were in 2008 and 2009.

To that end, maybe I’m the only one still interested in this, but I’m fascinated by what the Mariners are going to get for CP Lee, with an answer perhaps even coming soon as per Rosenthal…although their acquisition of Branyan certainly muddies those waters:
A number of other teams, however, could enter the mix, attracted by Lee’s relatively low salary and the idea that the acquisition cost should be less than what the Indians received for him last season, when he was a year and two months away from free agency.

The Phillies obtained Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco for four young players – catcher Lou Marson, infielder Jason Donald and pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp.

Of the four, Knapp had the highest ceiling, and he has yet to pitch this season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September. None of the other three projects as an impact player. Only Donald is currently in the majors.

The Indians actually might have fared better in their return for half a season of Sabathia the previous year, landing outfielders Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley as part of their four-player package from the Brewers.

That idea that Lee’s “acquisition cost should be less than what the Indians received for him last season, when he was a year and two months away from free agency” certainly looks to be tested in terms of what he’s doing (again) this season and will again give us names against which we can compare the Carrasco/Donald/Marson/Knapp package in perpetuity.

Moving on, in the midst of all of this change and coming upheaval, I found two pieces particularly striking as they represent the stability that the Indians value in their organization and present some “big-picture” ideas from the Indians, something that has been awfully hard to see in the early going of 2010 as prospects disappointed and lineups induced nausea.

The first comes by way of John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus, who reports that Manny Acta’s sunny outlook on the future of the organization remains unchanged, despite compelling evidence from the first half of 2010:
“There are a lot of things to feel good about here,” Acta said. “Our record isn’t as good as we hoped it would be and that’s disappointing. If you look at the big picture, though, look at the organization as a whole, there are good things happening.”
--snip--
The Indians will continue to look to the future, as they have three starting pitchers 26 or younger in Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, and Mitch Talbot, a closer-in-waiting in 24-year-old Chris Perez, and a young middle-infield combination of second baseman Luis Valbuena and shortstop Jason Donald. Acta also talks excitedly about many of the Indians’ prospects in the upper levels of the farm system, including first baseman Beau Mills, second baseman Jason Kipnis, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, outfielder Nick Weglarz, right-handed starters Carlos Carrasco and Hector Rondon, and left-hander Nick Hagadone. Furthermore, Acta believes two players who were in the Indians’ Opening Day lineup before being sent to Columbus, first baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta and outfielder Michael Brantley, will eventually return to the majors and play big roles.

While these types of pieces always present the “glass-half full” outlook (although Perrotto throws in some sobering facts in his asides) or , if you prefer, the “head-in-the-sand” outlook, I find it fascinating that the likes of Talbot, Valbuena, and Beau Mills (arrest not even taken into consideration) are thrown in there with the legitimately real reasons to be optimistic like CF Perez and The Chiz.

The second piece that explores the offices above Acta comes from Albert Lyu at Full Count Pitch, who did an exhaustive piece on GM-in-waiting Chris Antonetti and the DiamondView system that the Indians have had in place as far back as the Bartolo Colon deal in 2002. The piece is informative and attempts to rationalize the role that DiamondView plays in the Indians’ decision-making process:
While DiamondView provides an objective look at players, Chris Antonetti and the Indians maintain that DiamondView is only one tool in the front office toolbox. Antonetti may rely on the business side of him when valuing objective evidence and technology, but he also understands that a team of 25 players that look great on a laptop does not necessarily translate into a winning ballclub. Not only does the organization want the best analysts to provide research, but also the best scouts to provide opinions and the best medical personnel to provide diagnoses. In nearly all cases, the Indians’ scouting department has more of an impact on the front office’s decisions than recommendations made solely on information that DiamondView provides. DiamondView is, after all, just a powerful tool that allows the management to gather information quickly in order to make informed and balanced personnel decisions.

In the end, however, the value of objective analysis in baseball is undeniable, especially with the declining economy, escalating salaries, and the rapidly approaching deadline of the current labor agreement set to expire after the 2011 season. Among the low payroll organizations, the Indians have remained a stable and statistically-informed organization, armed with several full-time statistcal analysts in addition to a deep scouting department.

The enlightening piece gives a bit of a glimpse into how the Indians make decisions and how they weigh particular variables when coming to those decisions. While it sheds no great light on how the Indians got to where they currently reside at the bottom of the AL Central, it’s likely that it played a role in the decision to not only sign Rusty Branyan, but also to trade him for the two former Mariners that now find themselves in the organization.

The trading season has started and the Indians should begin to more closely resemble the team that most of us thought we would see in the rebuilding/reloading/whatever season of 2010 in the coming weeks. That won’t make the “experience” of the first half of the season look any better in the rear view mirror, but hopefully it will represent the idea that the ugliness of the first half of the season is right there…in the rear view mirror.

A Tale of Two Cities

After spending a lovely Thursday afternoon watching some baseball (not involving the Indians) as the Brewers completed a three-game sweep of the Twins here in Milwaukee, one aspect of the game was particularly striking to me in the context of following the Indians. No, it wasn’t that Yovani Gallardo was perfect through 5 or that the AL Central leading Twins looked eminently beatable all series, unable to match the Brewers in NL baseball strategy.
No, one thing stood out…35,898.

That was the attendance for a Thursday afternoon game in Milwaukee on the first day of SummerFest (and if you don’t know what that is, Google it) for a team that went into the game with a 31-40 record, 9 games out of the NL Central race. The Brewers won the game, their 4th in a row, raising their record to 32-40, not quite good enough to lift their projected loss total for the year above 90 as they’re now on pace for a 72-90 season.

And yet, 35,898 came to see it at 1:00 on a weekday.
Thing is, that attendance number is no great surprise in Southeast Wisconsin as the Brewers are averaging 34,833, good for 10th highest in MLB. What’s worth noting here as the immediate response that “yeah, well the Brewers are good and have been good” is that the Brewers finished 80-82 last season and are now two years removed from their only 90-win season since 1993, when they went 90-72 in 2008, making it to the NL Playoffs as the Wild Card before bowing out in the LDS.

What’s so interesting about this in the context of the Indians and their recent history?
Let me move the years around to get these records lined up, but here’s where I’m going with this:
Indians 2005: 93-69
Average Attendance: 24,861

Brewers 2006: 75-87
Average Attendance: 28,835
__________

Indians 2006: 78-84
Average Attendance: 24,666

Brewers 2007: 83-79
Average Attendance: 35,421
__________

Indians 2007: 96-86 (lost in ALCS)
Average Attendance: 28,448

Brewers 2008: 90-72 (lost in NLDS)
Average Attendance: 37,882
__________

Indians 2008: 81-81
Average Attendance: 27,122

Brewers 2009: 80-82
Average Attendance: 37,499
__________

Indians 2009: 65-97
Average Attendance: 22,492

Brewers 2010: 72-90 (projected)
Average Attendance: 34,833

This is not pointed out as any sort of referendum on why individual Indians’ fans didn’t cause the appreciable bump in attendance that was enjoyed in Milwaukee, only to point out that two small-market teams who experienced success in the latter part of the 2000s have had wildly divergent results at their box office.

The Brewers saw a HUGE increase in attendance on the heels of a 75-87 season in 2006, bringing in 25% more fans to the ballpark for a team that would ultimately finish 83-79 in 2007. The Indians experienced no such bump after their 2005 season (93-69) and actually saw a lower average of fans in 2006 for a team that would finish 78-84.

The oft-repeated refrain in response to why the Indians were never able to capture the excitement of the town was because of their inconsistency from season to season and their inability to remain in contention. However, looking at the Brewers’ record on the heels of their 2008 playoff season, it shows that the Milwaukee team was just as disappointing on the field, with those disappointments simply not making their way to the box office as they did in Cleveland. Additionally, two years removed from the playoff appearance, the Brewers have continued to draw despite a slow start and despite some particularly soul-crushing losses in early 2010.

That all being said, extenuating factors unquestionably play a role as the late-2000 Brewers represent the first baseball contender for a city in 25 years while the Indians’ fans are still largely playing the “show-me” game after the sustained success of the champion-free “Era of Champions” of the late 1990s. To date, the Brewers have been more pro-active than the Indians, firing their manager in the midst of a playoff hunt and trading for Sabathia to spur that playoff hunt. Additionally, the Indians traded their reigning Cy Young Award winners in consecutive years in 2008 and 2009, a fate that has not yet occurred in the Cream City.

Maybe that day is coming for the Brewers, who have yet to conduct a full-scale fire sale as the Indians have for the past two years. However, it is worth mentioning that every fan I spoke to felt that the Brewers should be trading Corey Hart and Prince Fielder this year (2 of the only 3 good hitters on the team) because of “baseball economics”. None of them seemed to project that trades of Hart or Fielder would lessen their desire to come to the ballpark in 2011 or beyond.

So what gives in Cleveland?
How did the Indians not get an appreciable bump in attendance after the 2005 season and the 2007 season the way that the Brewers did by hovering around .500 for most of the time and putting forth one playoff season?

Of course, it’s easy to say that the contempt for the ownership and the Front Office has kept people away, but we’re not talking about 2010, where the team slides below rock bottom with each passing day. What factors contributed to the Indians simply not capturing the hearts of a city back in 2005 and 2007 while the Brewers team, with 2 over .500 seasons in the past 5 years has been able to do so may remain unanswered in perpetuity. Maybe the Brewers slide down that slippery small-market slope to the bottom of the mountain once again, joining their former AL East counterparts from Cleveland. Maybe the attendance numbers will drop just as precipitously in Milwaukee once the known names make their way out of town for faceless prospects.

On a Thursday afternoon, making my way through the tailgaters outside of Miller Park, all decked out in Brewers gear, ready to root on a team that sat 9 games back, that startling drop in attendance is hard to see. Even with trades that will affect their offensive output on the horizon and with one good starting pitcher and a bullpen that calls to mind those of the Indians of the past few years, the people keep coming.

As the brats and the beer flowed freely and while that spigot never really got going at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario over the last 5 years, it doesn’t look to be turning off any time soon in Milwaukee.

Starting Anew

The dominoes have started to fall in the Indians’ rotation as Dave Huff is on his way to Columbus with Joe Smith on his way to the Indians to replace him on the 25-man roster in the short term before Aaron Laffey will re-emerge from Columbus on Friday to take Huff’s spot in the rotation. With Laffey’s Friday start, it will represent the first time that the Indians will start a pitcher that was not in their Opening Day rotation, a surprising development given the uncertain nature of the rotation all Winter and through Spring Training. Before getting into the roster machinations, how about a quick aside, where we count how many pitchers started a game by mid-June of 2009:
CP Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
Aaron Laffey
Jeremy Sowers
Dave Huff
Zach Jackson
Tomo Ohka

That’s 10 pitchers that had started games for the Tribe before mid-June of last year and the fact that only 2 of those guys have started games for the Indians (Laffey hasn’t yet) as they near the halfway point means something in the long haul, but I digress…

Back to the matter at hand as it seems that Aaron Laffey gets the nod over Carlos Carrasco for the first shot to break back into the rotation. While some consideration may have been given to the likes of Pino and Tomlin, the only real candidates really were Laffey and Carrasco, with Laffey finally getting the nod, likely on the basis of his relative success as a starter in MLB and because of his left-handedness (the other 4 remaining starters are all RH, as is Carrasco). The move is unsurprising as Laffey’s put together a decent resume as a starter, compiling a 4.42 ERA (102 ERA+) in 252 1/3 IP over 44 starts as an Indian. His peripheral numbers always look shaky, in terms of not striking many guys out and having a tendency to nibble when starting games in the last few years for the parent club.

Laffey’s success comes when he’s throwing strikes and the puzzling thing to me about Laffey’s ascension to the Indians’ rotation is that throwing strikes is precisely what Laffey did NOT do after his demotion to Columbus, as he walked 15 batters in only 20 1/3 IP. Yes, I’m the same guy who said to give Laffey a long rope in the rotation to start the year…just like I did for Huff (ahem), but after seeing Laffey thrive (for a while at least) in the bullpen to start the season, I’m not so sure that Laffey’s aggressiveness when he’s coming out of the bullpen isn’t the best spot for him. Lest anyone forget, Laffey was one of the only reliable relievers out of the bullpen to start the season, despite the variety of roles he was used in (long man, LOOGY, set-up man, mop-up duty) and was sitting on an ERA of 2.37 in mid-May after 15 games, relying on a high groundball rate (60%) to get himself, and usually the Indians, out of trouble.

Seemingly out of the money for now is Carrasco, whose uneven year in AAA has shown a somewhat muted ability to post solid strikeout-to-walk numbers (65 K to 27 BB in 79 IP), and a year that has been undermined by Carrasco’s inability to avoid giving up the longball, now a whopping 12 HR allowed in 79 IP and 13 games, which is nearly an HR allowed per game. Carrasco has now thrown 273 1/3 innings in AAA and you would have thought that Huff’s demotion certainly merited a chance to see if Carrasco could benefit from a change of scenery or even just to see what he could do in an extended stay in the Indians’ rotation because…well, because Carrasco is SUPPOSED to figure into the Indians’ rotation past 2010 and bringing him up in mid-to-late June allows the Indians the opportunity to legitimately see what he can do against competition that doesn’t include September call-ups.

Maybe Carrasco hasn’t necessarily “earned” that chance, but if we’re talking about 2010 performance in AAA, neither has Laffey.

That all being said and being very aware that Huff was in an obvious need of a break from MLB hitters – and how he returns from AAA is going to be telling as to whether he can locate his fastball against MLB hitters the way that CP Lee eventually did or if his command will relegate him to the land of Sowersia…and, believe it or not, I’m still inclined to believe that he’s not destined to live on a AAAA island with Jeremy – have you noticed that there’s another LHP that could use a similar break on the Indians?

I speak, of course, of Tony Sipp.
Since Sipp’s Waterloo in the Bronx (nearly a month ago now), he’s allowed 16 H, 15 ER, and 7 BB in only 3 2/3 IP while giving up 5 HR (!) and striking out only 5 hitters among the 35 that he faced. Since that game, opposing hitters have posted an astonishing 2.066 OPS and while one can say that the small sample size rule applies here, realize that he’s thrown in 9 games and has allowed at least a baserunner in every game. Prior to that meltdown that caused Sipp’s precipitous decline, he had posted an ERA of 1.40, striking out more than a batter an inning, while posting a WHIP of 1.03 and limiting opposing hitters to a .510 OPS. He’s also the same guy with a career Minor League ERA of 2.80, with a career Minor League WHIP of 1.08 while posting a 11.7 K/9 rate on the farm. So, Tony Sipp (not unlike Dave Huff…though there is compelling evidence otherwise) is not a lost cause – just maybe a lost sheep.

The last month has revealed that Huff and Sipp need to go to Columbus to re-discover what made them prospects in the first place – namely their command and their ability to locate their fastballs and throw strikes. Of course, Sipp’s demotion may be the corresponding move to get Laffey on the 25-man roster, which would keep Joe Smith around, but if you want a novel idea – bring both Laffey and Carrasco up…

No, I’m serious. If you’re asking me to make a decision as to who should replace Huff, I’m going with Carrasco even if it means 5 RHP as the Indians are strictly in development phase and giving Carrasco an opportunity could answer some questions about him that aren’t going to come in AAA. Additionally, I’d like to see the Indians promote Laffey to return to the place that he experienced the most success in 2010 – as a reliever on the parent club. If you haven’t noticed, the LHP in the Indians’ bullpen are vying to see which can bring the bigger gasoline can with them out to the mound and if Sipp is the guy that’s going to be going down to make room for Laffey, that would mean that the only LHP coming out of the bullpen is one Rafael Perez.

It is worth noting that, in his last 14 games, Perez has posted an ERA of 1.46, struck out 7 and walked only 2 (although he has given up 12 hits in that stretch) and has given up 2 extra-base hits since the beginning of May over 20 games and 75 batters faced. However, Perez is still the guy that’s given up more earned runs (51) over the last two years than struck batters out (47). He’s given up more than a hit an inning over the last two years and has posted a WHIP of 1.91 since the beginning of 2009.

Yes, I understand how starters are more valuable than relievers and “wasting” Laffey in a bullpen role when he could be starting games may not be the best utilization of a limited talent base. However, I still don’t think that Perez is going anywhere soon, as the fact that he’s being used in semi-meaningful situations is more telling than you might think. Not sure if you remember this, but the Indians’ first LHP that is currently pitching out of the bullpen in the Minors (other than Jeremy Sowers…and he doesn’t count) is in A-ball.

Does Laffey deserve a shot at starting in Cleveland, given his overall body of work as a starting pitcher for the Indians? That case can certainly be made (and, again, I was the one that made it), but the aggressiveness that Laffey brings out of the bullpen may be the determining factor in where he ends up helping this team in the long haul.

Perhaps he eventually ends up there and Carrasco will find himself in the Indians’ rotation once Jake Westbrook is moved meaning that there will be plenty of opportunities for these players in the rotation. Just as possible is the idea that I’m at the point where I want to see an Indians’ rotation and bullpen that’s going to be closer to the way it COULD be constructed in 2011 and beyond (a season like this will do that), but promoting Carrasco to take Huff’s spot in the rotation and sliding Laffey into Sipp’s spot in the bullpen (and don’t ask me who would go down to accommodate all these moves…maybe Joe Smith goes back down) could answer substantial questions about where both Carrasco and Laffey fit. The case can be made that answering whether Laffey fits into the rotational mix past this year also remains unanswered, but the Indians need to start cycling through some of these arms that project past 2010 in the second half of the season and finding out if Carlos Carrasco is anywhere close to being ready for a MLB rotation spot and seeing if Aaron Laffey can thrive out of the bullpen, as he did to start 2010, could represent a nice start.

A Lazy Father’s Day Sunday

Coming to you live from the satellite office that is the in-laws’ house in Wisconsin, it would seem that we’re just waiting for the news that Dave Huff is heading to Columbus from Pittsburgh in a drive that is actually quite nice this time of year. As for the corresponding move, you would have to guess that Carrasco and Laffey are the first two options and neither has exactly forced the Indians’ hand in “not being able to keep them out of Cleveland”…which just goes along with the whole vibe of the 2010 season. In his last 5 starts, Carrasco has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 32 K to just 6 BB in 35 IP while Laffey has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP and 9 K to a whopping 15 BB in 20 1/3 IP since joining the Clippers’ rotation. If I had to venture a guess, I’d give the edge to Carrasco, although “edge” is a relative term here when we’re talking about a pitcher who’s given up 10 HR in 77 1/3 innings in AAA.

Regardless of who will be coming up to replace the all-but-departed Huff, let’s get going on a Lazy Sunday so I can get downstairs to enjoy the breakfast strata that is filling the house with aromatic goodness and while my Bloody Mary awaits…

Leading off with one of the only reasons to still be reading about these Indians, Anthony Castrovince has a great Inbox as usual, in which he rationalizes how to judge a “rebuilding” process:
Right now, the Indians are utilizing a lineup simultaneously geared toward development and contention, but that figures to change. Calling up top prospect Carlos Santana last week was an important step. Going forward, this club needs to find meaningful opportunities for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley in the everyday lineup. That could/should mean moving Russell Branyan and/or Austin Kearns, as neither of those guys fits into the Tribe's long-range plans.
--snip--
The Indians still have a wealth of unresolved issues in the outlook for their future rotation. Fausto Carmona has shaken off the instability he had shown the last two years, and Mitch Talbot has been a pleasant surprise in the No. 5 spot. It’s a little more difficult to be sold on David Huff and Justin Masterson, though Masterson’s last three outings, particularly his brilliant effort against Boston last week, are encouraging.
--snip--
We’re seeing the Indians attempt to construct a homegrown bullpen that will eventually revolve around Chris Perez, who figures to take over the closing duties in 2011, if not sooner. Frank Herrmann has stepped up of late, but little has been reliable in the 'pen this year.

Ultimately, what you want to see this season is reason to believe that the next wave of talent is going to be able to contribute on a consistent and meaningful basis at this level. Thus far, the Tribe has been hit and miss in that department in 2010.

You want a couple of sentences that can sum up the 2010 season to date?
That last paragraph is the money shot and brings the whole 2010 season into focus in terms of the veterans and the youngsters and what has transpired to date. Some youngsters were given opportunities (albeit limited) and struggled, while other youngsters have been given a longer leash and…well, struggled. If you’re looking for pleasant surprises or even young players that figure in past 2010 that have met or exceeded expectations, the list is confined to Carmona, Talbot, CF Perez, and Santana (small sample size considered) as definites and Masterson, Donald, and…well, that’s about it for even the maybes.

The hope would be that the vision PAST 2010 is what starts to reveal itself here in the final 90+ games of the season and that the likes of LaPorta and Brantley can do what Santana has been able to accomplish in short order – to prove that they belong in the Indians future AND current plans. While looking at that list above of which players have been pleasant surprises (or potential pleasant surprises), it is comforting that 3 of the players are starting pitchers, one is a closer and two represent up-the-middle-of-the-diamond talent, which figures to be augmented if and when Cabrera and Sizemore regain their health and (ideally) their effectiveness.

That being said, the periphery of the roster (and that “periphery” is not that far removed from any semblance of a “core”) seems wide open for a multitude of players to assert themselves into that mix of being future AND current options. We know names like LaPorta and Brantley and some of the starting pitchers in AAA, who have disappointed to date. However, even outside of that group, opportunity would seem to be there for some young players (although we thought the same thing going into the season and look where we stand today...almost in July) who may have fallen through the cracks in their journey to MLB. What that says about the Indians’ organization and their ability to draft or sign and develop legitimately impact talent is up to you, but the second half of 2010 could represent a perfect opportunity for the Indians to give an opportunity to some younger names that we may have heard about some time ago in an attempt to determine the level of production capable from any and all internal options before augmenting the organization.

On that topic, Adam Van Arsdale has a tremendous piece at LGT regarding “sorting through the detritus” of the Indians’ farm system that is simply too good not to read. It effectively analyzes which of the older “prospects” could potentially contribute, and which ones should legitimately have a chance at doing so.

One of the names that stands out to me (and I know that Tony Lastoria hit on this in his Minor Happenings) from Van Arsdale’s piece is Jared Goedert. Remember that whole question of who's going to play 3B once Peralta gets traded…um, what about Jared Goedert?

This is not breaking any new ground as I think that the aforementioned Mr. Van Arsdale has essentially made this comparison at some point over the last couple of weeks at LGT, but Jared Goedert’s 2010 season calls to mind another older “prospect” who thrived in AA and AAA in a particular season and was able to parlay that success into a solid MLB career. I speak, of course, of Mr. K2…no, not the one who flipped over the handlebars of his crotch rocket:
2006 – Kevin Kouzmanoff (Age 24)
AA - .389 BA / .449 OBP / .660 SLG / 1.109 OPS with 15 HR, 19 2B in 276 PA
AAA - .353 BA / .409 OBP / .647 SLG / 1.056 OPS with 7 HR, 9 2B in 115 PA
Cumulative - .379 BA / .437 OBP / .656 SLG / 1.093 OPS with 22 HR, 28 2B in 391 PA

2010 – Jared Goedert (Age 25)
AA - .325 BA / .382 OBP / .540 SLG / .922 OPS with 7 HR, 14 2B in 186 PA
AAA - .391 BA / .429 OBP / .804 SLG / 1.233 OPS with 4 HR, 7 2B in 49 PA
Cumulative - .340 BA / .391 OBP / .598 SLG / .990 OPS with 11 HR, 21 2B in 235 PA

Just to put a bow on this, Kouzmanoff was a 6th Round Pick in 2003, who actually was promoted to MLB in that same 2006 season, never to return to the Minors and Goedert was a 9th round pick back in 2006, meaning that Goedert’s prospect path has not been as linear as that of Kouzmanoff. To that end, certainly the continued success of K2 in the Minors (.975 OPS in 2005, .910 OPS in 2004) is not something that Goedert can claim (.657 OPS in 2009, .709 OPS in 2008), although Goedert did burst onto the scene in his first full season in the organization, when he posted a 1.020 cumulative OPS as a 22-year-old in 2007 in Lake County and Kinston.

When Peralta gets moved (not if), it’s possible that the Indians give 3B to Andy Marte or some platoon of Andy Marte and Luis Valbuena. As I shudder at the latter possibility, let’s realize that it’s entirely possible that the Indians use the remainder of the 2010 season to see what they have in guys like Goedert and Josh Rodriguez. We’re already seeing it somewhat with Trevor Crowe (and color me unimpressed) in terms of the Indians giving some of these guys who have been labeled as “prospects” at one time or another and give them an extended look at MLB, whether it be Crowe trying to prove that he’s even a suitable 4th OF or giving Goedert a chance to serve as the bridge between Peralta and The Chiz.

Moving on, Mitch Talbot is getting some run as a legit AL ROY candidate, with SI.com’s Cliff Corcoran listing him as #3 on his ballot right now, saying (among other things) that:
Talbot is playing with fire with his miniscule strikeout rate, but has gotten by thus far with an excess of infield pop ups and double plays and some luck on balls in play, the last of which runs counter to his team's poor defensive showing thus far. Correction is coming, but I can no longer deny his performance to this point.

I’ve been saying it for a while, but I don’t know how he’s doing it and the last Indians’ rookie who started strong out of the gates (one Mr. Jeremy Sowers, circa 2006) with poor peripherals eventually had his “correction” come with a vengeance. I’m not saying that a similar fate awaits The Fury, but whether he’s able to keep up his current level of success will be an interesting subplot for the rest of the season.

As for the other subplot in the rotation that figures to play out in the next 5 weeks or so, the inclusion of Fausto Carmona on every list of “available” starting pitchers at the Trade Deadline nationally has continued to raise eyebrows. To date, I have always scoffed at the notion that the 2010 season is the time to trade Carmona as he’s still working his way back from the no-man’s land in which he has resided for the past two years. That being said, David at the terrific SABR Tribe site put forth the best case that I’ve seen for trading Fausto Carmona in that it’s well-researched, wildly logical, and certainly gives pause to the idea that holding onto Carmona is the best path for the Indians to take.

While the piece raises some excellent points, the reason that I would balk in considering a trade of Carmona to be the most prudent path to take for the Indians is one that he himself mentions in the piece when he discusses Carmona’s walks. He says that Carmona’s “walk rate has lowered each month the season so there is some logical optimism in thinking that his improvements are not only legitimate but will even continue to progress” and that’s where I think that the Indians need to let Carmona’s “recovery” play out. After his performances recently, I think that he’s closer to coming back than many people are giving him credit for (and it’s folly to think that he’d recapture v.2007 immediately) and after nursing the wounded animal back to health, it behooves the Indians to find out if Carmona can recover a level close to his 2007 form.

What is lost sometimes when looking at a total body of work for a season is the improvements, however incremental, that a player is making. Carmona, who was literally “lost in the desert” out in Arizona last year has put together a 3.21 ERA in his last 7 starts, but more importantly has struck out 33 and walked 13 (6 of those coming in one start) in 47 1/3 IP. His groundball rate over those last 7 starts is 65% and his K rate is 6.97 K/9 with a K/BB rate of 2.53.
Want to know what those numbers were in 2007?
2007 GB rate – 54%
2007 K rate – 5.7
2007 K/BB rate – 2.25

Obviously, those improvements from even his 2007 peripherals come in just his last 7 starts and 7 starts is not enough to draw conclusions, but one of those 7 starts included a 2 K, 6 BB “performance” and in his last 2 starts, he’s struck out 14 and walked only 1.

Ultimately, Carmona’s career (in Cleveland or elsewhere) could be a roller-coaster ride rising to the peaks of v.2007 and falling to the valleys of v2008/v.2009 throughout the course of the season. However, with his performance finally trending in the right direction and with the club-friendly contract that he has (he’s guaranteed just $6.1M next year with club options for $7M in 2011, $9M in 2012, and $12M in 2013…and compare those numbers to what’s been paid to Westbrook since 2007), I would prefer to keep him around to see if he can front a rotation and set the tone for some young arms around him.

Perhaps some of that is still emotional (and we all know how well emotional attachments work out in the realm of following the Indians) as the idea that Fausto – the pitcher that made Torii Hunter feel hung-over, the one that pitched his way through the midges to plow through the Yankees – could be coming back to his former self is too much for me to divorce myself from as this guy, who bounced off of the mound in Game 2 of the ALDS is not one I’m ready to give up on.

An interesting corollary to the handing of Carmona and the potential trading of him is that what the Indians decide to do with Carmona is going to tip their hand in terms of how close the Front Office thinks this team is to legitimately contending. If they move him (and Westbrook, assuming they do), they go down to a rotation devoid of many MLB starts, much less MLB success. That, to me, would signal that they don’t think that they're close and they’re willing to throw in the towel for 2011 and probably 2012. Certainly, that’s a conclusion that they could draw (they did it when they decided to move CP Lee and Vic, deciding that the 2010 team would not be a contender with or without Lee and El Capitan), but the manner in which the affordable – and club-controlled – contract of Carmona goes so far out into the future is going to be telling as to how the Indians’ Front Office realistically views the timeframe for this “rebuilding/reloading/whatever” that’s currently underway.

What that timeframe for this current build-up is may reveal itself in the coming weeks with the Trading Deadline inching closer. Until then, it’s time to kick back on a Father’s Day, enjoy some baseball on the XM, some golf on the TV, all while having the drink in my hand replenished by somebody throughout the course of the day…in an ideal world, of course.