Lazy Sunday with the President, v. 2014
Al
Ciammaichella: This offseason was much quieter/different than last offseason.
Were the moves you made last year looking forward to this year’s free agent
class where you signed guys like Swisher and Bourn knowing this offseason would
be quieter?
Mark Shapiro: We always have to take an
opportunistic lens when it comes to free agency. When we look at free agency,
if we’re dependent upon it to build our team, then we’re in a very difficult,
if not impossible, spot. The reality is that we’re either looking for where the
value is in the market or looking to be opportunistic. Last offseason there
happened to be two guys that fit multiple year, positional needs for us at values
we thought we could afford and who have some other special attributes,
especially in the case of Swish, but really Bourne too, as a leader as well.
They filled gaps we had in our system, where we felt like we didn’t have anyone
coming up at all. And we also knew that this offseason there was a lot national
TV money coming into the system and a lot less guys, so there were going to be
more resources available, greater demand and less supply. So while it’s already
a tough market, that was going to make it nearly an impossible market. So I
look at last year as our chance to make a bigger splash in free agency, and
this year was going to be “are there little things we can do?” I think we
studied David Murphy, who I think is a good pick up for us. He’s going to
improve both the defense, and give us a really good platoon and depth in the
outfield.
AC:
We talked a lot about levers last year, which became one of my new favorite
buzzwords. How did you decide what levers to pull this year, with Murphy, and
how did you decide which not to pull, with not bringing back guys like Ubaldo
and Kazmir?
MS: Those decisions are never as simple as “do you
want the player or not?” I think that the fan tends to look at it as “you
didn’t want the guy.” We loved what Kaz did for us, we wanted him, but the
level of risk involved with multiple years and the level of risk involved with
those dollars just didn’t fit our payroll parameters this year with the
natural, built in escalation of contracts. I think with Ubaldo, same thing. It
ended up being a good deal for us, particularly in light of what we gave up,
but it wasn’t the right fit for us this year. When you talk about levers, I
think the neat things to think about from last spring to this spring are the
evolution of a guy like Yan Gomes. Where all of a sudden, you look at Gomes and
there’s a guy who leverages his ability to impact a game at more than just his
position because of what he means defensively, what he means for his passion
for making pitchers better, for helping to call a game. So I always like to
think about, “where are the guys that can impact a game beyond objective
statistics? Beyond just their own performance?” And Gomes is a guy who when he
started to catch last year, I think that was one of the keys to our team really
taking off.
MS: Any GM or front office guy who tells you he
knows exactly what he was getting when he traded for a guy is just pounding his
own chest. What you do is you try and find something you like, a defined
attribute that you like about a guy. Even when we traded for Asdrubal or
Shin-Soo Choo, there were always questions. We never thought they’d both be as
good as they were, never. So when we traded for Yan Gomes, we thought that
maybe he could catch, but really what he was, was right handed power, and a guy
who could play multiple positions. That’s what we thought. When we got him, I
think we did a smart thing, similar to when we traded for Justin Masterson. We
didn’t know Masterson could start, but we knew he could be a dominant bullpen
guy. But in our situation it’s important to maximize the value because we can’t
go out and buy those things. So we put Yan back there, and right away Tito and
the staff said “this guy’s got pretty special hands, he’s got some strength
behind the plate.” When you go back and look at his career, whether it’s in
Tennessee (in college) or in the Toronto system, he played behind Arrencebia
both places, and they had D’Arnaud there as well. So he was behind two of the
best young catchers in the game and he never got to catch much. He just took
right to it. He got better and better. He’s a worker, he’s smart, he’s tough,
he has a lot of the attributes you look for in a catcher.
AC:
It’s nice having guys like Sandy (Alomar) and Wally (AA manager Dave Wallace)
around who can help young catchers develop. I’m sure they spent a decent amount
of time with him.
MS: Yeah, and he’s a sponge too. He wants more.
AC:
You can tell. Just the framing metrics, things that were probably previously proprietary
stats that are now out in the public showing just how many runs a catcher can
save just by framing pitches helps show why he’s so valuable.
MS: Yeah, like Molina. I think there are just some
things that you can’t measure, like his game calling and the way pitchers feel
about him being a student of the advanced (scouting) report.
AC:
And we haven’t even talked about his bat yet.
MS: Yeah, he’s got right-handed pop, which was the
one thing we thought when we got him. He’s got right-handed power, which is
hard to find.
AC:
Last September was great experience, but such a roller coaster, winning 10 in a
row to claim the 1st Wild Card and having it all end in just one day
against the Rays. What was that like?
MS: Backing off the emotion, and looking at it from
a more intellectual level, my take on that game in general was, we had just won
ten in a row, and the nature of regressing to the mean was that we actually played
a decent game. I thought we had more hard-hit balls than Tampa had. We could’ve
won that game. But the odds just reversed on us. We had won ten in a row, and
the time came for us not to have balls fall in. Two hard-hit balls right at
people, and our ten game streak came to an end. It just happened to come to an
end in a time where we were playing a single-elimination game. My thoughts,
bigger picture reflecting were, “hey, I was on the committee that put that
structure in place.” I was a little reluctant to go to a one-game playoff, but
the managers lobbied hard for it in the intent to make it more difficult for a
Wild Card team to advance. My takeaway was that it is definitely more difficult for a Wild Card team to advance.
AC:
Right, a couple of years ago, you’re planning for the Red Sox as the Wild Card
team. That had to creep into the back of your mind a little bit.
MS: A little bit. In the end, I still think it’s
better for us and better for the game that more teams are involved in the
playoffs, but yeah, what an abrupt halt to an incredible run. A little bit of
an improbable run, so just to get in and play playoff baseball again in
Progressive Field was pretty cool.
 |
| Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella |
MS: I think that Tomlin is an interesting guy to
keep an eye on, Tomlin or Carrasco. I was really excited about Carlos coming in
because of some of the changes he made this offseason, but the reality is that
we’re going to need starters to step up. Carlos has got probably the highest
ceiling and the most weapons and really has worked hard on some delivery
changes that have shown extremely well early in camp. Obviously he’s struggled
the last two times out. Josh is a guy that you’ve followed a little bit…I love
the guy. Getting back to my earlier comments to you, looking for things you
know about a guy? I know he competes. I know he’s an athlete, I know he throws
strikes. I know he’s going to make you beat him. He is an extra infielder there
in the infield, and you can’t run on him. Look at the numbers, you just cannot
run on him. Is he going to give up some homers? Yeah, he’s going to give up
some homers, but this spring there’s been some swing and miss with him, he’s
had some more weapons. He’s a good guy to bet on, a good guy to win or lose
with. And Carlos is a guy who is one step away from everything clicking, and
you don’t want to give up on that. I think that can come from those guys. The
bullpen…it’s hard to say. We’ve got some depth there. C.C. Lee is a guy that we
feel strongly about, that he can have an impact soon.
AC:
Austin Adams is another guy…
MS: Yeah, a good guy, a battler, competitor, hard
thrower. Yesterday he was 97-98.
AC:
Since we’re talking about pitching, let’s talk about Mickey Callaway. What a
lever that guy has been, effecting the whole organization from top to bottom.
You see what he was able to do with Ubaldo, and what he’s done with a lot of
the young kids on the way up in Lake County, Carolina. How important is he to
the club, and can he work his magic on other talented guys like Trevor Bauer
and Carlos Carrasco, those high-ceiling, high talent guys who haven’t quite
made that last step yet?
MS: One of the things to think about with Trevor is
that he’s only 23 years old. So he’s still so young, but his path was almost
artificially sped up just because of where he was drafted. Ross Atkins did a
marvelous job in identifying Mickey, and hiring Mickey, and knowing that he had
something special when he hired him. I remember vividly Ross telling me when he
hired him. I’ve always told every farm director we’ve had, from John Farrell,
Neil Huntington, Ross Atkins, all of the guys who’ve followed me in that job,
“every time a job comes open, you need to think that pitching coach you’re
hiring, that could be the next major league pitching coach.” You can’t just
fill the job. You’ve got to look for impact guys, and Ross did that with
Mickey, obviously, but he’s done that with numerous guys that he’s hired. But what
makes Mickey special is his ability to communicate, and his openness to adapt
to whoever he’s teaching. It’s not that he has some sort of sage insight into
pitching mechanics or crazy proprietary philosophies, it’s more of the ability
to connect, communicate, and individualize instruction. Develop trust and
respect and help guys get better. Ensure that they know that he’s there for
them. Mickey does that at a really elite level. His magic secret is his ability
to communicate that other guys don’t have, and his ability to be selfless and
really be there for the player.
AC:
Positional flexibility is something that this team has, and not Garko in the
outfield type of flexibility. But Santanta at 3B/1B/C, Raburn pretty much
anywhere on the field, Swish 1B/OF, Aviles can play anywhere. How important is
that to Tito and the club?
MS: I think that we look at having a nimble roster,
having the ability to withstand the fact that not all guys can play 162 (games)
as being important. One of the separators for us was having a bench with Raburn
and Aviles on it last year. You look at a guy like Elliott Johnson, having a
good camp, extremely versatile, a guy who can play all three outfield positions
in addition to two or three infield positions, he’s another guy like that. So
having good big-league players who are also versatile helps you in the
endurance test of a 162 game season. And it may give you an opportunity to make
up some ground on some higher revenue teams with superstar type players. It’s
inevitable that most players are not going to play all 162.
AC:
The Qualifying Offer. You’ve been on both sides of the Qualifying Offer now.
Last year you were able to get a couple of guys who had that QO, with maybe a
little less interest in a guy like Bourn than if he had not been under the QO
protection. Then this year, with Ubaldo, getting an extra first round pick back
after losing him. What are your feelings on the QO? Do you think that’s a
positive aspect of the current CBA?
MS: I think it’s worked in the way that clubs have
hoped it would work. It provides some compensation for losing a free agent, and
I think we have a better understanding of the value of what those picks are
worth now, and we can put a cash value on that. We factor that in to a free
agent offer and we determine whether to offer the player something beyond the
Qualifying Offer or not. To hear people on the other side diminish the value of
the QO…we offered those guys $14.1 million for a one-year deal. That’s a whole
lot of money. So it’s hard to feel like anyone is being take advantage of. They
make the decision that they’ve earned the right to make, whether to accept it
or not.
AC:
So talking about whether or not to make that very large financial commitment, did
you consider extending a QO to Kazmir?
MS: We never take anything lightly, and we walk very
carefully through everything.
those, in 2006 and 2008 the team started pretty slow out of
the gate, being forced to trade C.C. in 2008 because you were out of it before
the all-star break. Is there anything that the 2014 team can or has learned
from that to try not to backslide?
MS: I wouldn’t say that we learned much from that,
other than just how fragile it is which I think we already knew. I think we all
understand that there’s still some good fortune that has to factor in to us
being that team. Last spring training we were trying to figure out who three of
our starters were. Now we’re agonizing over three or four good choices for one
spot, our last spot. But we may end up worse this year than last year, starting
pitching wise. Some things really hit for us last year, with Ubaldo and Scotty
Kazmir. In our situation, we’re never going to build the perfect team. We’re
always going to have some question marks heading in. Our job is to reduce the
number of “ifs.” If this happens, if that happens…have as few of those “ifs” as
possible heading into the season. And I think this year’s team has less “ifs”
than last year’s team. The question is whether we can build off of what we did
last year. Not, can we improve? Because 92 wins is pretty tough, but to build
off of that and play good baseball. Part of the way we got to 92 wins was by
winning ten in a row at the end. I don’t want to have to do that again.
AC:
Going 4-15 against the Tigers last year essentially killed your chances to win
the division. Other than having better luck, what can you do to close that gap specifically
against the Tigers this year?
MS: That’s true. They’re objectively the best team
in baseball, so I’m not sure that we were able to close the gap on them. I just
think we need to focus on being as good as we can be. I think we’re going to be
better than 4-15 against them this year. But the reality is the Royals are
going to be better, and regardless of how good they’re going to be both the
White Sox and the Twins are going to be better than they were last year. It’s a
hard division, and the Tigers are still objectively either #1 or #2 in all of
major league baseball. And they should be, with the resources they’ve got. So
we’re going to have a challenge, a real battle. It wasn’t easy last year. You
could argue that Kansas City, down the stretch, was the best team we played in
September last year. They beat us more than anyone else beat us in September.
AC:
We talked a little about TV money last year, and again today already. When you
saw the contract that Kershaw got (7 years, $215 million), what was the first
thing that flashed through your mind?
MS: First thing that flashed through my mind is that
is one of the most special, most unique players and people that exists in the
game. And if we were in similar circumstances, we would probably do the same
thing. He represents not just a talent, but a man of character and work ethic,
and I think those things factor in when you stretch and make big decisions.
That being said, if you scale revenue and the resources to our market, that
offer in our market gets a lot smaller.
AC:
The season ticket base is not at the level that you want it right now.
MS: Our single biggest challenge.
AC:
Still, revenue did go up last year. Is that from dynamic pricing?
MS: It’s a factor of more efficient pricing in
general. I think we got ourselves into a position because of reflexively
discounting and promoting for a period of years, which is pretty standard
sports marketing, instead of focusing and understanding where the most
important fans are and how we effectively price and what we’re doing to our
business by just discounting year after year. The ultimate challenge is, and I
always tell people this, is the concert analogy. If Pearl Jam is playing in
Boston, they’re getting paid the same thing as if they were playing in
Cleveland. But they can charge a lot more for the tickets in Boston. The talent
in baseball gets paid no matter what city it plays in, but tickets cost a lot
more in cities other than they do in Cleveland. That’s because of the size of
the market and the wealth of the market. So we’re in a tough spot. But I think
that what we need to do, more than raise prices, is just to get people to buy
in advance. That’s the most important thing for us. Try to change behaviors.
Any more in today’s world, when you have a ballpark in a downtown where there
are only 170,000 people working downtown, if the decision is left up to the
last minute then weather is a significant variable. Really the home TV product
is a significant variable. You’re tired at the end of your day, you didn’t buy
already and make that decision already, it’s not so bad to sit down on the
couch and watch with your surround sound on your 60” screen. I think our fans
are out there. It’s just, how do we make it more compelling to come to the
ballpark, and how do we shift that behavior to buy in advance, to commit
earlier.
AC:
Talking about enticing people to come to the ballpark, you’ve got a lot of
really neat promotions this year, new food items, cheaper beer…what are you
most excited about on that front?
MS: I’m actually most excited about one that we
haven’t announced yet, one that we’re going to announce after opening day.
We’ve got a big technology driven one that we’re really excited about.
AC:
Free iPad day at the ballpark?
MS: Haha, exactly, right. I do think it will be a
platform for us to do a lot more technologically at our ballpark.
 |
| Photo Credit: Colorado Rockies |
MS: We’ve been looking at concepts a lot like that,
not that exact same one. But I think, as you and I talked about last year,
we’re very intensely involved in the evolution of our ballpark in two levels.
One, it’s 20 years old, so there’s just infrastructure that we have to think
about. Second, is how do we help the ballpark without ever violating the
incredible architectural integrity of it, how do we help it evolve for the next
generation of fans, the next 20 years. Because we do have some things that are
outdated, some things that don’t fit our market or fit today’s fans. So how do
we make it a compelling entertainment environment. We are quietly working on
those things, very closely, and I think when we get to the point where we have
firm plans you’ll start to see us roll those out. It could be as soon as this
year, we’re getting closer on some of those things. It’s a lot of work.
AC:
Last year we talked a little bit about the draft, and you stressed how
important it was going to be with a top-5 pick to hit on a star. Do you think
you hit on that guy with Clint Frazier?
MS: Well, we hit on a guy with big-time pop,
big-time power who loves to play the game of baseball and who is still learning
to play his position defensively. When you take a high school position player,
one that has a pretty good profile, pretty good pedigree, there’s upside there.
You have the chance to have a star. But the draft business in general is highly
speculative, so for me to say we hit on that…we have a talent. Now we have to
help make him a talented professional player. Because it’s difficult for any
19-year old to come into this environment…this is not the right environment for
everyone. For a guy like Francisco Lindor, he’s a baseball rat, he was made to
play baseball. It’s what he’s always thinking about, it’s what he wants to do,
he’s very at ease in this environment. I’ve seen other 18-year old kids come in
and it’s just uncomfortable for them from day one.
AC:
Two of your top starting pitching prospects, Cody Anderson and Dace Kime, were
relievers in college. Is that an under-exploited market? Are college RP a new
market inefficiency?
MS: We haven’t looked at it that way. We have some
very specific things we’re looking for as we’ve evolved in our amateur scouting,
and really our pitching scouting in general. We have a checklist of things we
think about, and those guys were guys who happened to not be starting based on
what their college coaches saw that we think have the capability to be
starters. When we look at college relievers, some of them are relievers for a
reason. Some of them are guys like Cody Allen that we’ll bring in here and put
in the bullpen because we feel like that’s the right role for them because of
either arm action or pitch development. Other guys we think can maybe start,
and we’ll give them a chance to start.
AC:
Two big rule changes this year with expanded instant replay and catcher
collisions rule. I refuse to call it a ban on homeplate collisions, because it
isn’t that.
MS: Not this year, no. Hopefully next year it will
be.
AC:
You’re in favor of that one then, obviously.
MS: I’m in favor of it. I’m not sure I’m in favor of
the incremental step, but that was part of the negotiation
with the union. I
think the rule has worked pretty efficiently and pretty effectively at the NCAA
level. When we talked to those umpires and those coaches, they were surprised
at how quickly it was adapted to. But the union had some concerns,
understandably, that these guys have been away from that for so long that it
could be a big adjustment, so they put an incremental step in place with the
intent of having it go all the way next year, so we’ll see how that works.
AC:
And with replay, I saw you hired a replay coordinator, a former coach (Gregg
Langbehn), a guy who really knows the game and will be able to help out on what
calls should be challenged. Do you see replay as being a big thing this year?
MS: I love the fact that we’re moving in that
direction. I think that it was positioned extremely appropriately, that it’s
going to be a learning process, that there’s no way, as (Braves Team President)
John Schuerholz said,
that we’re going to be able to peel all the layers back from the onion. We’re
going to have to adjust as we go. I think that admitting that up front, that
saying that we expect that within three years we’ll have a more perfect system
but that it’s going to be a work in progress. I see some issues that might need
some adjustment pretty quickly, but that’ll bear out and we’ll adjust as time
goes on. I think that in the end, it’s a step in the right direction. We can’t
have people in the stands watching it on their hand held devices, their phones
and tablets, watching it and saying “how could that happen?” Sooner or later
that’s going to happen in a World Series game or a pennant stretch game, and
that would be a bad thing for the industry to not have the ability to reverse
that call.
AC:
This offseason, you guys hired (Baseball Prospectus reporter and author) MaxMarchi, who literally wrote the book on baseball analytics? How big of a hire
is that for you guys?
MS: Mike or Chris would probably be better to talk
about that, but he’s a guy who we’ve been very aware of for a long period of
time, obviously his work, like you, and respect it, and we feel like as we
continue to grow and evolve analytically that he has a chance to make an impact
for us. I think it’s an area where we continue to grow in.
AC:
Looking down south in Atlanta, John Hart gets hired and you see them start
buying out a slew of arbitration and free agent years for their young guys.
That can’t be a coincidence.
MS: (Smiling broadly) I just got off the phone with
him an hour ago. Multi-year deals. When I talked to him today, I said, “hey,
Scott Scudder, Dave Otto, sign ‘em all up!” (laughing). John is an incredible
influence in my career, an incredibly wise guy, an astute evaluator of talent
and a strong leader. John Schuerholz
knows that, I think he’s also probably John’s best friend. So John Schuerholz is going to
clearly take advantage of John Hart’s wisdom, as is Frank Wren, and one of
those things is probably that philosophy, although not the same parameters, not
the same operating conditions with the insurance industry being different, still
has its advantages, particularly in the first generation of contracts.
AC:
So how has your perspective, your approach to contracts evolved since those
Scott Scudder and Dave Otto contracts?
MS: It’s just a much harder, more finite window on
the multi-year contract process. Trying to find that value, where the shared
risk aligns. It’s just a lot more difficult.
AC:
When looking at contracts, do you ever factor in WAR/$ (Wins Over Replacement)?
That’s certainly something that goes in…we’re
looking at measuring the value of the player. The replacement value of the
player and what that costs. So absolutely, we factor that in. I’m not saying
that’s the only stat we use, we have our own proprietary stats. But we are
making clear valuations on the player, and cash is the easiest way to measure
that value.
AC:
So, I have to ask about Justin Masterson. Obviously, he’s a very important part
of the ballclub, and it was reported last night that talks on a multi-year deal
broke down. Any thoughts on Masty’s future in Cleveland?
MS: We make it a habit not to negotiate in public.
That’s never constructive, it’s never respectful for the other side and it
never results in a good outcome. The things that I will say about Masty are that
we appreciate him, we like him as a player, we respect him as a person and we
want to keep him here. That’s never the question. The question is, can we do it
at a level and still effectively build a team around him. So that’s more the
challenge for us, when you look at a guy who has accomplished as much as he has
accomplished and is staring free agency in the face.
.JPG) |
| Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella |
MS: I try to temper that, putting my player
development hat on and just knowing that, and Ross and I have talked about
this, that he (Lindor) needs to focus on his clock ticking. Using every single
at bat, every single ground ball and every single inning in the minor leagues
as a pearl that’s going to be going away pretty quickly. So we need to make
sure he’s as prepared as he can humanly be when he comes up and gets a chance
to play up here. So I’m trying to put that aside to get him to focus on not
where he’s going, but where he is. And the best thing for his major league
career is going to be for him to focus on those limited opportunities he has in
those minor league at bats where he’s not going to get overly scrutinized, or
hurt his earning potential, and focus on getting developmentally squared away
so that his foundation is strong when he gets to the big leagues. That’s kind
of where I’m trying to stay, where all of us are trying to stay right now.
AC:
So Swisher’s “Unfinished Business” t-shirts…do you have one? Is that something
the organization is really getting behind?
MS: I do…but it took me a while to get one! Limited
edition (laughs). I’m going to have to tweet out here, I have a couple to give
a couple away, I managed to get ahold of some extras.
AC:
Thanks a lot for taking the time to talk with me, I know how busy you are this
time of year.
MS: Any time, I enjoyed it!
.JPG)
.JPG)
.jpg)
.JPG)
Posts
