Tomahawks Back to Even

While these interwebs are all atwitter with pieces about LeBron, the Indians’ freefall out of 1st place has occurred and while the wailing and moaning may be audible from the North Coast, the only wailing happening around these parts is coming from a one-week old that sleeps in the basinet in our room. Regardless, the Tigers have officially now caught the Indians (even if they’re technically tied again) as the slates have been cleared and we’re back to sitting at even with the Motor City Kitties.

That hot start is now for naught as the cushion that was so fully inflated just a few weeks back now sits limply, bereft of air. The Indians’ season is at a crossroads for sure as the next few weeks of Interleague Play are likely going to determine if the Good Ship Wahoo is one that is just starting to take on water or if the Tribe can right the ship, get their bearings and start to move forward once again.

And with that, let’s get some Tomahawks in the air…
__________

Realizing that recent performance is going to play a major role here, is anyone THAT convinced that the Tigers are the cream of the AL Central? While the recent standings may say otherwise, I’m not convinced that the Tigers are this much better than their AL Central counterparts, much less this much better than the rest of the AL. The Tigers have gotten hot at the perfect time as the Indians went frigid, but just as people were quick to point out that the Indians weren’t going to win at a .600 clip for the season, couldn’t the same be said for the Tigers?

Over the first 46 games of the season, the Tigers were exactly .500, going 23-23 as they struggled with problems that don’t figure to go away for them (modest starting pitching past Verlander, age, injuries, regression, etc.) as the season wears on. That said, it is true that they’ve been playing at a .666 clip, going 14-7 over their last 21 games as they’ve been hitting on all cylinders as of late. However, it begs the question as to which team are the Tigers closer to being?

The answer to that is fairly obvious (closer to .500 team) and there was a point in the season in which the Tigers went 5-10 over 15 games (including 3 losses to the Indians in Cleveland) and Detroit has endured a 7-game losing streak and a 5-game losing streak ALREADY this season and while they’ve balanced that out with a 7-game winning streak and a couple of 4-game winning streaks, the Tigers are an impossibly streaky team and, given how much they lean on one or two players (Verlander and Miggy), they’re prone to stretches of losing baseball…not unlike most other teams.

Just to bring this around to the Indians, take a look again at those numbers for the Tigers over their first 46 games and their last 21 games and realize that the Indians won at a .666 clip, going 30-15 and have since played .250 baseball with a 5-15 record in their last 20.
Again, which team are the Indians closer to being?

Isn’t it reasonable to assume that the Indians are likely somewhere between that .666 clip and .250 clip? Of course, that’s a pretty wide berth but it speaks to the importance of the Indians establishing over the next two weeks as a legitimate contender who can stick around in this AL Central race and, most importantly, start playing the way that they played for nearly 1/3 of the season. Remember, the larger of the two groups of games that the Tigers and Indians have played had the Indians with a decided advantage, but things have evened out as the lead that the Indians had built up has disappeared and even turned into a deficit for a short time.

While everyone wants the answer as to whether the Indians are able to stick around in this or if the Tigers are going to run away with the division, let’s remember what everyone wrote and said about the Indians being atop the Central a month ago and amend it a little bit – it is still mid-June and both the Indians and Tigers have experienced and success and failure in the first two and half months during this season.

In this “what have to done for me lately” culture that we live in, where perception is somehow reality and where conventional wisdom is a constantly moving target, the Indians and Tigers have changed seats from where they sat just over a month ago when the Tribe swept Detroit in late April/early May. It stands to reason that they may keep changing seats for the better part of the season as the AL Central is full of flawed team, Detroit and Cleveland included.

As to who ends up still standing when the music stops is an answer that isn’t going to come over three days in Detroit in June (just as it didn’t come in three days in Cleveland 6 weeks ago), but will reveal itself as the season wears on and as the band plays on…
_________

Despite the struggles of the Tribe of late, the recent performances by individuals on the team are definitely bright spots and are some building blocks upon which the Indians can start to develop some momentum as portions of the starting rotation have started to come into their own once more. After a rough stretch for the starters, the troika of Carrasco, Masterson, and Talbot have all provided the Indians with some much-needed momentum in terms of outings, if not necessarily wins.

As I wrote this weekend, if the Indians are going to win some games while the offense continues to thrash about in the quicksand, it will be because of their starting pitching and Cookie Carrasco (yes, the team calls him “Cookie”) has led the way for the rotation, posting the 13th lowest ERA (at 3.03) among AL starters over the last 30 days, the 13th lowest WHIP (at 1.11) among AL starters in the last month. Going past just Carrasco, in the last two weeks, Carrasco, Masterson, and Talbot have all posted ERA’s under 3.50 throwing 52 2/3 of the 114 innings that the Indians have played. Despite this, the team is 3-10 in the last 14 days with three of their starting pitchers putting them in position to win games.

That’s almost hard to do and to understand why that is doesn’t take much understanding at all as the issue is still the issue that’s plagued the team since Hafner hit the DL – they can’t score any runs.

This is not telling secrets or cracking codes, I know…and I wrote that the onus was on the players to start to get back to being productive, but each game makes it all the more apparent. Until Santana and Choo show some consistency for more than a week and until Grady starts to look closer to the player that emerged from the DL in May and until Hafner returns both healthy AND effective, the offense is going to struggle and the team is going to have trouble putting together a winning streak.

As much wailing and gnashing of teeth that may be happening while wholesale changes are being suggested in some (dark) corners, not to go all Rick Pitino on you, but Manny Ramirez v.1995 isn’t walking through that door and a young Albert Belle isn’t about to show up to clear up these offensive issues. The Indians need the players that are in place, that have a track record of production, and on whom the effectiveness of this offense relies upon to start producing and scoring runs.

There is no magic bean out there that can be planted that’s going to lead this offense back up into the sky. While the offense continues to work through these…uh, “issues”, the aspect of the team that needs to keep the team in these close games is that starting pitching. While the success of the rotation has not been universal (and anytime Fausto wants to try to limit damage with runners on would be a nice change of pace), the Indians need to take advantage of the starting pitching that they’re getting and allow the recent performances of their starting pitchers to turn into some victories…and I don’t just mean “victories” of the 1-0 variety.
__________

As for where the Indians stand right now and where they’re going, there are a couple of schools of thought emerging in terms of how to approach this team. The first sees the Indians still at the top of a winnable division, meaning that the Tribe has been presented with a (surprise) opportunity that they should be taking advantage of, whether that means straying from the “best-laid” plans or not. Maybe that means calling up more players to “shake things up” or to explore trades to supplement the current roster. This is the one that is touted in ink and on the airwaves, PLEADING for the Indians to do something to stop the bleeding, generally ignoring what happened over the first two-and-a-half months of the season. This point of view aches for something/anything to change because change can only be good at this point.

While there are emotional aspects of this that make sense (and let’s remove the Bobby Phelps/Uncle Orlando “change” from this because that actually represented – and still should represent – the team improving internally, even incrementally), to take this viewpoint as a concrete stance is to say that what happened over the first two or so months of the season was a fluke and that what happened over the last two weeks is not.

Let me say that again as this is what is presupposed here in the idea that the Indians have to make MAJOR changes immediately:
Success in two-and-a-half MONTHS = Fluke.
Failure in two-and-a-half WEEKS = Reality.

Maybe this is oversimplifying things, but it’s something that was included in a great piece from B-Pro’s Marc Carig on Manny Acta and how the Tribe skipper is still trying to take a long view:
Acta expects things to eventually get back to normal, which is perhaps the most important point. It’s one that he recently hammered home to his players in a team meeting, and one that will surely surface again as the Indians face off with the Tigers. “We’re not a fluke,” Acta said. “You’re not a fluke for 2 1/2 months when you’re in first place for that long. Still, there’s a lot of games left. We’ve built up that lead at the beginning. That’s why right now we’re still in a good spot.”

While “good spot” is a relative term, that leads us into the next school of thought that is out there on the Indians, which is that the players that put the Indians at the top of the division for two months are pretty much the same guys that are in there now and that “waiting it out” and weathering this storm is the course of action that is most advisable. You may not buy that – and the perception of this team has certainly swung 180 degrees in about three weeks – but that last point above made by Acta is what’s troubling to simply letting this play itself out as the Indians did build up “that lead” and watched it fritter away as the offense fell on its collective face.

Maybe no changes were going to prevent this widespread regression and maybe this is a number of players regressing back to who they are, but the second school of thought (which is probably closest to rational) suggests that the Indians need to stick with the current group of players that they have to allow them a significant amount of time to pull themselves out of this tailspin. If they’re not able to do it as individuals (and some will while others won’t) over the course of the next month or so, then the Indians need to start augmenting the roster internally. Of course, the season may be too far gone to save at that point and whether that means a Kipnis or a Putnam or a Gomez/McAllister addition to see if the Indians can stabilize some of their weak links, it’s not something that has to happen immediately, but maybe over the next month or so.

A “month or so” may seem like an eternity, given what we’ve seen the past two weeks, but the Indians need to find a delicate balance of patience and urgency. Those two words may not go together all that cleanly, but the Indians need to continue to be patient with guys like Santana, Choo, and even LaPorta to see if their past production and/or pedigree is going to eventually come shining through. At the same time, there needs to be some urgency to improve this team where they can, whether that means eventually going to Kipnis at 2B (though giving Phelps even a cursory shot would be nice before replacing him with The OC as a DEFENSIVE REPLACEMENT late in the game) or adding bullpen arms remains to be seen. Ultimately, the prevailing idea with this school of thought is that there’s help that come, but that the help should arrive on its own, not as the panic button is continually pressed.

Regarding that “help”, the final school of thought (and this one is the most comforting, if not satisfying) is that this early-season contention is unexpected and a year ahead of “schedule” and that the best course of action let this all play out and simply enjoy any pleasant surprises that may be enjoyed on the road to contention…in 2012. In a recent post at Hardball Talk, Craig Calcaterra wrote that, “The early season surge notwithstanding, everyone knew that this was not going to be a competitive year. That they occasionally win a game they have no business winning is a bonus; that they occasionally stink on ice should not be taken too hard.”

Before anyone gets too fired up about the “stink on ice” line, Calcaterra was writing about the Royals – not the Indians, so I’m being a little sneaky here by including it. But that being said, when the season started for the Tribe, wasn’t there this overwhelming sense that “this was not going to be a competitive year” and that the Indians were just going to look for some improvement from their burgeoning core of players that was going to be supplemented at some point by Al White, Jason Kipnis, and The Chiz?

Certainly, the surprise of the first two months changed those expectations but as the Indians sink back towards .500 (which was the optimistic expectation of most going into the season) is that what we’re back to…this “let’s stay the course” rationale that puts across the idea that the team was “happy to be there” for the first two months. Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I can’t imagine how that’s the prevalent line of thinking down at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and the only evidence that I can cite to support my belief that the Indians are closest to the 2nd school of thought (ride this group out…but only for so long) is that Al White was promoted when he was.

Was it just a mirage?
The Indians were playing solid baseball for, as Acta pointed out, 2 ½ months and while “June Swoon” may be the phrase carrying the day right now, the Indians are still at the top of a winnable division. Major changes are probably not the best course of action for this team that needs to find its legs underneath them once again, but neither is simply letting this whole thing play out as the Indians continue to sink.

As much as these arguments over what the Indians should or should not be doing, it is worth pointing out that there’s too much “black” or “white” in these discussions. Just like everyone said, “the Indians aren’t this good”, isn’t it fair to assert that “the Indians aren’t this bad”? Where that middle ground exists is what we’re going to find out, but the Indians need to do some climbing to find that middle ground.
__________

Finally, there are times when fandom does funny things to even the most rational among us as, for whatever reason, we (as fans) think that our actions somehow affect a play, a game, or a season. Given the abyss that the Indians have fallen into, I thought I’d come clean as to role that I’ve played in the freefall in the standing for the Wahoo Warriors. Realizing that this is going to paint me as a wildly irrational person, just bear with me as this has been weighing on me and I’m in need of some help on this…and not in the psychiatric sense.

About a month and a half ago, I joined a friend at the always-solid ABC Tavern on West 25th Street for a happy hour and some grub while we talked about whether the hot start of the Indians was sustainable. On the recommendation of the bartender, we each ordered up some cans of Bombshell Blonde, a “perfect summer beer” from Southern Star Brewing Co. While enjoying our Blondes and talking Tribe, we politely nodded at the bartender’s assertion that Josh Tomlin (who led the AL in WHIP at the time) would “probably be traded by the All-Star Break…because that’s what the Indians do” and attempted to keep the bartender’s attention on the terrific canned beer that we were enjoying.

Later that week, while on the weekly shopping trip to Heinen’s, I happened upon a 6-pack of the Bombshell Blonde and settled in for some Tribe baseball on a Friday night…which just happened to be the Friday night that Carlos Santana attempted to make “believers” out of all of us. A few weeks later, I cracked open another recently purchased 6-pack of the Blondes…on the Friday night in which Travis Hafner would provide the walk-off HR magic.
And suddenly, a correlation was identified between the Blondes and Tribe magic.

Just a week after that Hafner HR, I went searching for the Blondes on the weekly shopping trip…but found none in the cooler or in the stacks of cans at Heinen’s. About a day or two later, Hafner hit the DL and the bottom started to fall out of the Tribe, with me furiously searching for Blondes (not at Minotti’s, not at other Heinen’s) in an attempt to play my part in pulling the Tribe out of their losing streak.

Since it is necessary to drink beer by “season” (that is not an opinion, it is fact) and seeing as how I’ve largely avoided hard alcohol (read: gin) since the birth of baby #2, I went searching for an alternative as I tried to replicate the Blonde magic by pouring other “summer” offerings. Since I find GLBC’s Holy Moses White and Bell’s Oberon Ale too fruity (and I love this whole retro-can phase from craft brewers and can’t believe that the environmentally-conscious GLBC hasn’t embraced it yet), I went from Brooklyn’s Summer Ale (delicious, but helpless in ending streaks) to Avery Brewing Co.’s Joe’s Pilsner…to no avail. Thinking maybe it was the “summer” beer and not the can, I tried Goose Island’s 312 and hit up Bell’s Lager of the Lakes…and still the Tribe muddled.

All solid beers and terrific for passing a summer night, but the Tribe’s losing ways carried on, with the Tribe’s offense looking like they were the ones putting down the “summer beers” in the dugout instead of me on my couch. At one point, I texted my friend (the one who was in on the original “Blonde” session) and told him that I was considering a hard-target search of the West Side (though not for “The Sponge”, for “The Blonde”), to which he wondered openly if these Indians were “Blonde”-worthy…zing.

Regardless, now that the Indians has spent even a day in 2nd place, we may be in full panic mode here as I’m going to have to find this Bombshell Blonde to see if I really was playing a part in this or if my flights of fancy are just that in terms of my “role” in this losing streak. So, if you’re out on the West Side of Cleveland (and maybe I shouldn’t limit it like that) and have seen the Blonde that I can bring home to see if I can play my part in the Indians recapturing that lost magic, a quick heads-up would help.

If nothing else, a great summer beer – and perhaps an Indians’ season – could be at stake here…

Arms Raised on A Lazy Sunday

The slide into ignominy continues for the Tribe, now caught by Detroit in the Central, with the Cleveland offense only able to score 2 runs in 16 2/3 innings against – get a load of this list – Ivan Nova, Mo Rivera, Bartolo Colon, David Robertson, and Boone Logan over the past two games. Sure, The Sandman is The Sandman and Robertson has his uses, but the Indians’ offense scored 2 runs against Nova on Friday and couldn’t get to Boogie Colon (stem cells or not) on Saturday as the Indians’ offense has fallen on hard times…then fallen a few more for good measure. Yes, the Indians scored 5 runs in the 8th and 9th innings on Friday night…against Kevin Whelan (in his MLB debut…as a 27-year-old), Amauri Sanit (in his 4th career MLB appearance) and Lance Pendleton (in his 9th career MLB appearance), so you can count those late-inning runs on Friday if you’d like, but any thought that the momentum gained from whacking away at non-MLB pitchers would lead to a break-out game on Saturday quickly gave way to the realization that the 8th and 9th innings on Friday were more aberration than announcement that the Indians’ offense has broken out of its collective funk.

What makes it all the more frustrating is that all of this is coming against the Yankees and while the Indians’ “rivalry” is one that’s only considered a rivalry on the North Coast, to see the Indians look like a non-contender in the Bronx is especially disheartening. Even more disheartening is to read Mark Teixeira’s lips after being hit by Carmona to “throw the ball over the plate” and – for the first time – find myself in complete agreement with a Yankee as the slide that the Indians are riding down the AL Central W-L column seems to be covered in grease.

Certainly, the Yankees are just as deplorable as ever as a group of unlikable mercenaries, as evidenced by Alex Rodriguez inexplicably writhing around in pain, getting tended to by two trainers, and limping into the dugout…all after being hit by an 88 MPH Mitch Talbot “fastball”, but watching the Indians and the Yankees square off for the first two games of the series evokes thoughts (or is it a reminder) that the Indians look out of their league in the Bronx, despite what the overall records of the two teams might be. Realizing that there are still two games left to be played against the Yankees, the problems that have existed for the Tribe in the past few weeks are just as obvious and, even against the lesser lights of the Bombers’ thin rotation, the Indians have struggled (still) to get on track offensively, while the Yankees’ hitters predictably feasted on the pitching that they always feast upon.

Despite the efforts of Talbot on Saturday, the offense remained offensive and I’ll be honest with you in admitting that the offense probably cannot be analyzed any more than it has been – the team misses Hafner, nearly the entire lineup (and Choo and Santana most importantly) have been disappointingly inconsistent while Sizemore is still working through an injury and the veterans brought in that weren’t thought to hit much…well, haven’t hit much.

The Indians have already acted in rectifying one of the issues as Cord Phelps has arrived (although the DiaTot prefers “Plug” Phelps and I suggested on Twitter a couple of weeks ago that he be referred to as “Bobby” or “Bob”, given that his full name is Robert Cord Phelps) and the offense has continued to look listless. Certainly nobody was suggesting that Bobby Phelps (which has a kind of “Bobby Grich” ring to it…and a “Grichian” mustache would definitely look tremendous on the baby-faced Phelps) would serve as the savior to the offense – just an upgrade over one of the worst offensive players in the league – and while it’s too early to make any kind of pronouncement on Phelps, the recent performance of the offense brings to the forefront the deepest fears about this season as it slips away. Mainly, the notions that some of the prospects that need to take steps this year (mainly LaPorta) aren’t going to improve, that the health of Sizemore and Hafner are never going to approach 100% again, and that something has gone horribly wrong with Choo (whose routes in the OF have looked progressively worse) have not only started to simmer…those fears are bubbling over the side of the pot.

That said – and realizing that this topic has been beaten to death as the onus is squarely upon the players to pull out of this – let’s get going on a bit of an abridged Lazy One as The DiaBride and I welcomed our third child (and first girl) onto the Reservation earlier in the week. Perhaps that will please those among you, for whom 2,500 to 4,000 always seems like overkill…but I’ll be overkilling it again soon enough. For now, let’s get loose on a Lazy Sunday while I wolf down my fourth cup of coffee on the day…

Remember, I’m not talking about the offense today (as I’d like to keep my breakfast down) and while the pieces are going to start flying as to whether the Indians can hold the fort or if the invaders are over the wall, finding the Indians with arms raised or holding white flags, what’s going to dictate whether the Indians stay in this playoff race or slink back into the depths of the division as the Royals did is their starting pitching. What paced the Indians’ hot start this year and what represents the only path to redemption for this team (that’s conceivable right now, watching the lineup) is for the rotation to string together a consistent stretch of games to keep the team in games to see if they can back to even treading water.

Realizing that writing that a couple of days after Carmona looked like an absolute trainwreck at this point (and did anyone notice the sweat dripping from the BRIM of his hat during Friday night’s game), there is cause for some optimism for the Indians on the starting pitching front. Yes, Mitch Talbot and Josh Tomlin have performed at a level at or above what is expected of them, or any other middle-to-back-of-the-rotation arms, but the real cause for optimism came in the final two games against the Twins.

Yes, it was against the Twins and their injury-ravaged lineup, but Masterson’s 8-inning start on Tuesday (8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) was followed up by Carrasco’s near-complete game shutout (8 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K), perhaps providing a glimpse into what could be (or maybe what is not all that far away from “being”) for those two in the Tribe rotation. While Masterson’s success this year has been well-documented, to see Carrasco dominate a lineup like that serves as a reminder of what Carrasco was purported to be (by the organization, among others) when he was the key “close-to-MLB” arm acquired in the Lee deal.

Realizing that the timing of pointing out these numbers is not too coincidental given Carrasco’s last start, since CarCar returned from his stint on the DL, he has posted an ERA of 4.17, a WHIP of 1.20 and has struck out more than twice the batters that he has walked in his last 36 2/3 IP over 6 games. While most of these numbers are admittedly influenced by Carrasco’s gem on Tuesday night, Carrasco now has the 15th highest GB% in the AL on the year – and 3rd highest GB% in the AL in the last 30 days – among starters (despite the fact that Hoynes wrote that he is “usually a fly ball pitcher” after the 1-0 win against the Twins), meaning that the success that Masterson has enjoyed (thanks to inducing GB and missing bats) is perhaps on the way for the other big arm added by the organization in late July of 2009.

Maybe it’s hard to imagine sustained success for Carrasco at this point because of his inconsistency to date, but since we saw ol’ Bartolo yesterday, it’s worth remembering that Colon’s first year in MLB with the Indians (as a 24-year-old, which is how old Carrasco is now) resulted in a debut season that saw him post a 5.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 94 2/3 IP over 19 games. Even after that inauspicious debut, Colon regularly struggled with inconsistency from start to start, although the potential was always there as Colon began to harness his talent into production on the mound.

Since his late-season call-up last year, Carrasco has a 4.24 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.30 K/BB in the 110 1/3 IP over his last 30 starts.
Is that going to have anyone running out to dub him another “aCCe”?

Certainly not, but remembering his age and his potential is important here as is realizing that he’s going to be inconsistent as a young starter still adapting to MLB. At this point, he’s a 24-year-old starting pitcher in MLB with 132 2/3 career innings under his belt and I’m not sure if anyone remembers how every prospect publication’s preseason darling – Kyle Drabek – looked when he faced off against the Indians in Toronto…but it wasn’t good.

You remember Drabek, right?
The player that the Indians were panned for missing out on when they moved Lee to Philly, the one whose “pedigree” and “upside” made Carrasco’s slow, steady trip through the minors made prospect “experts” pen love letters to Drabek while questioning Carrasco’s toughness, makeup, and ability to be much more than back-end-of-the-rotation fodder?

Since I haven’t done this in a while, here’s how the two of them stack up with the numbers for each coming in MLB rotations this year, with Drabek being the younger of the duo…by 8 ½ months:
Carlos Carrasco – 2011
4.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP over 11 starts
3.49 FIP / 3.82 xFIP

Kyle Drabek - 2011
4.98 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 0.90 K/BB in 68 2/3 IP over 13 starts
4.97 FIP / 4.98 xFIP

Yes, Carrasco has only 3 fewer innings pitched despite starting TWO fewer games and Drabek leads the league in BB (hence the K/BB rate under 1), but I included the FIP and xFIP on a separate line to show how Drabek’s ERA has fallen exactly in line with his FIP and xFIP, while Carrasco’s FIP and xFIP are much lower than his 2011 ERA. Remember that FIP is a metric that attempts to “measure all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible” while attempting to “understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded” while xFIP is an extension of FIP that attempts to “normalize” the HR component of what a pitcher can control and while it’s far from perfect, it “theoretically should be a better predictor of a pitcher’s future ERA”.

Of course, “expectations” and “fielding independence” and “normalizing HR rates” go only so far as the numbers attached to a player in terms of ERA or OPS is what ultimately sticks close to them as it represents what they are doing, rather than what they should be doing. But it is worth noting where Carrasco fits in among AL starters and (since it’s time to bring Masterson back into the conversation) how Carrasco and Masterson are among the AL’s best in both FIP and xFIP:
FIP - 2011
Masterson – 3.18 (9th among AL starters)
Carrasco – 3.48 (16th among AL starters)

xFIP – 2011
Masterson – 3.53 (14th among AL starters)
Carrasco – 3.85 (27th among AL starters)
There’s 54 eligible pitchers on that list and perhaps that duo is not Jared Weaver and Dan Haren (#1 and #2 on the FIP list) or Dave Price and James Shields (#1 and #2 on the xFIP list), but seeing them in that rarified air (relatively speaking) is a reminder as to what the Indians could have in the duo. Masterson’s inclusion and placement on those lists probably doesn’t come as much of a surprise (although Masterson does have a better FIP than Verlander and a better xFIP than CC), but Carrasco’s almost certainly does. As a quick reminder, Masterson is 26 years old and under club control through 2014 and Carrasco is 24 and under club control through 2016.

And maybe that’s where the excitement should exist with this Indians team, as frustrating as they’ve been to watch, as if there’s going to be anything that carries this team going forward for the remainder of 2011 and beyond, it is that the idea that these two pitchers can front a rotation isn’t as far-fetched as you would have thought just two months ago. Perhaps you scoff at that notion because of the inconsistency of Carrasco and the fact that Masterson still has trouble with LH hitters, but if you start to think of the idea that these two can constitute 40% of a solid, and possibly spectacular, rotation that’s starting to congeal right now, the context of the steps being made this season start to gain some perspective.

Certainly more of that “possibly spectacular” rotation was supposed to also be in place as Al White’s injury sabotaged the idea that Masterson, Carrasco, and White would all log significant MLB innings this year with an eye on today and off in the distance. While the nature of White’s injury was particularly scary for Indians fans (and you should read this superb piece from Al Ciammiachella on Atom Miller, complete with pictures of his middle finger), Jordan Bastian passes along in the most recent (and always excellent) “Inbox” that “Indians head athletic trainer Lonnie Soloff said the only similarity is that both injuries deal with the right middle finger. Miller’s was far more serious. White is expected to be back on the mound and potentially available for the Tribe later this season.”

Maybe the Indians’ history in reporting injuries doesn’t buy them a lot of goodwill in terms of expectations of a return for White, but if White can return – even next year – and can be joined by Drew Pomeranz, who has struck out 63 of the 196 batters faced in Kinston this year – go read those numbers again – and is likely to be on his way to Akron at some point soon to continue his quick climb up the ladder towards Cleveland, the Indians’ “rotation of the future” doesn’t look all that far off. Truthfully, it’s not that hard to picture Masterson, Pomeranz, Carrasco, and White filling out the Indians’ rotation for years to come and the time that they all might be together may not be much further away than this time next year (if White is healthy and Pomeranz’s ascent follows that of White)…and that is reason for excitement, regardless of what’s happening in the Bronx.

While “best-laid plans” are just that when lining up rotations of the future, you don’t need to remember Jaret Wright or Atom Miller or Jerry Sowers to know that sometimes the “best-laid plans” go awry for young pitchers as TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect) is an acronym for a reason. History is full of promising rotations that were supposed to arrive together and carry a franchise with the latest exhibit coming across the diamond this weekend as Joba joins Phil Hughes on the list of “Future Yankee HOF”, whose paths took an…um, detour on the way to Cooperstown.

While that last comment is put forth tongue-firmly-in-cheek, the idea that pitching prospects can (and do) go wrong in every conceivable manner, as detailed by Tom Verducci of SI this week. Just cherry-picking from Verducci’s piece, remember these “can’t miss” future rotations, all from the last 20 years?
• The “Four Aces” of Oakland from the 1990 draft: Todd Van Poppel, Dave Zancanaro, Kirk Dressendorfer and Don Peters: Total games they won for the Athletics: 21.
• “Generation K” of the mid-90s Mets. Total games won for New York by Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen: 29.
• The Big Three of the 2003 Cubs. Mark Prior, 22, Kerry Wood, 26, and Carlos Zambrano, 22, combined for 45 wins and 636 1/3 innings for a team that came within five outs of the World Series. Prior and Wood began breaking down the next year and the franchise hasn't won a postseason game since.
• The DVD Rotation of the 2006 Texas Rangers system. John Danks, Edinson Volquez and Thomas Diamond won three games combined for the franchise (two of the pitchers -- Danks and Volquez -- were traded).

That’s not meant to scare anyone (although the White finger injury was/has been scary enough), but if anything positive can be taken from the first two months of the season and even the last two weeks, it’s that Masterson and Carrasco have the potential to slot into the rotation and anchor that rotation, awaiting either the arrivals of White or Pomeranz, or to supply some top-to-middle-of-the-rotation stability for the rest of the arms in the system to slot around.

And don’t get me wrong…those “rest of the arms” have some potential to fill out a rotation nicely. While Tomlin and Talbot have shown what is possible for pitchers who know HOW to pitch this year – in that they can keep teams in games – the Indians would seem to have a number of “ancillary” arms that are as close as Columbus that have the potential to fill out the rotation around Masterson and Carrasco and maybe White and Pomz going forward. Past Tomlin and Talbot, there is Zach McAllister (who admittedly has fallen on hard times recently) and Scott Barnes (featured in Adam Van Arsdale’s “Farm Fresh”), and about who Al writes “has not given up more than 2 ER in a start since May 8. In his 6 starts since then, he’s thrown 29 2/3 innings and given up just 9 ER while striking out 40 and walking 12.”

What’s even more interesting about McAllister and Barnes is that each is 23 and in AAA (just like Jeanmar Gomez, who has thrived since returning to Columbus), so if the pair of 22-year-old 1st Round Picks – White and Pomz – go the way of Atom Miller or Joba or any of those other cautionary tales (and this is me knocking wood furiously), the Indians have some in-house options that could fill the Tomlin/Talbot role…just as well as Tomlin (still just 26) and Talbot (still just 27) have this year.

That said, it all starts – and has started – with Masterson and Carrasco starting to show the potential as legitimate pillars of a rotation and (this is important) seeing that “potential” actually turn into production, something that has started to materialize this year. While the Indians’ are currently an absolute mess on offense and as the likelihood that Carmona is a member of the team next year (remember those club options) decreases with each start, the Indians are going to have to start relying on the right arms that they acquired at their lowest point in July of 2009.

How the right arms perform in the coming weeks and months will play a role in whether the Tribe is able to pull themselves out of this tailspin and whether they can assert themselves once again as an AL Central contender. Obviously, they’re going to need some help (and here is where the word “offense” finally appears again), but if Masterson and Carrasco can begin to show a glimpse of their bright future for the next few months, perhaps their two bright stars in a largely dark sky can start to shed some light on the North Coast.

Right now, things are looking awfully dark…

Offensive Tomahawks

As the Indians finally leave the “friendly confines” of Carnegie and Ontario, after dropping 5 of 6 at home in the past week, there is an inescapable feeling that all of this momentum that the Indians had built over nearly two months has been put to a sudden and uncomfortable halt. While the idea existed that the Indians could perhaps tread water and prey on the cellar-dwelling Twins this week in an effort to keep afloat, the same problems that had been exposed in recent weeks continued to sabotage the Indians chances at pulling out victories in winnable games as the offense’s silence became deafening and as the late-inning magic has disappeared in a poof.

The Indians now find themselves only 1 ½ games up on the Tigers in the Central as their lead has evaporated not only because they’ve been losing at an unmatched pace, but also because Detroit is about as hot as a team can be right now, as they’ve gone 11-5 over their last 16 games. So, while this may be lost on many as we watch the Indians give up ground in the Central, if you were to put the Tigers in the AL East, they would be 2 games back and they would be 1 game back if they were in the AL West.

Of course, they reside in the Central, where they remain 1 ½ games back and while looking at where they would be in other divisions doesn’t make me feel as good as it should given the Indians’ lead just a few weeks ago, it speaks to how quickly the Tigers have catapulted themselves up the ranks of not just the AL Central, but in all of the AL thanks to their recent run. As much as I’d like to say that “baseball is a game of streaks” and that “these things happen”, the performances of the last two weeks (for both the Indians and the Tigers) are more than a little disconcerting as the Tribe and the Motor City Kitties seemed to have changed places from where they were only a month ago as the Indians are seemingly incapable of a winning streak and the Tigers just keep cutting into that lead.

While the Indians’ recent struggles have been jarring (as they look like a completely different team from the one we saw in April), it is not untrue to say that everyone saw this stretch of the schedule coming, if you think back to the beginning of the Reds’ series when they were faced with some tough challenges. They’ve gone 8-11 since the Reds arrived to the North Coast and while that’s disappointing for a 1st place team, it could have been a LOT worse, given the Tribe’s struggles. All told, they won two series (Reds and Blue Jays) and lost three series (Rays, Rangers, and Twins) being swept once (against the Rangers) and sweeping an opponent (the Reds) since the “meat grinder” portion of their schedule began.

Don’t take that rationalization of the tough schedule for the recent struggles and don’t expect the argument that, “well…they didn’t plan on being here, so we should just enjoy it while/if it lasts”, because the Indians are still in 1st place in early June and the Front Office has shown some level of urgency with the call-ups of Al White and Cord Phelps (albeit a couple of weeks late for my liking) as they’ve acknowledged that the Indians are not content to simply batten down the hatches, attempt to ride this out, and see if they could have recaptured the magic of the first few months with what was a flawed team, despite what the record showed.

Now that the Front Office has started to tinker and as the Manager’s lineup card continues to represent attempts at jump-starting the team, the sense of urgency needs to arrive now for the players (and it coincides with a trip to the Bronx, obviously) as the onus is now on the players to prove that their success in the early going was not a mirage. While nobody expects them to get back to the .700 winning percentage that they once boasted, the Indians need to find that happy medium between what they were when they were winning 2 out of every 3 games and this recent stretch when they’ve lost 2 out of every 3 games (and they’ve lost 14 of their last 21) to even out a little and get their sea legs back under them.

Perhaps it comes back with one great push of a game that gets the offense on track or perhaps it comes gradually as the players that should be carrying this team start to shoulder the load while the young players get back to playing the developmental, complementary roles that they were thought to fill when the season started.
Then again, perhaps it doesn’t come back at all…
__________

Obviously, most of the focus on the Tribe’s recent struggles has (rightfully) been aimed at the toothlessness of the offense and the inability of the team to put enough runs on the board to sustain a run of consistent victories. That said, I thought I’d pass along some interesting quotes from B-Pro’s John Perrotto earlier in the week from a manager, a CF, and a SS from a struggling offensive team.
Quotes from the manager:
“I think this lineup is going to hit. It has to hit…I don’t see any reason why we won’t hit. We can get started any time we want, though. That’s how I look at it. I like the lineup, but we’ve got to start scoring some runs.”
--snip--
“I don’t sit back and worry about the ones we won or lost, I just think about today’s game and putting my best team on the field. Hell, tomorrow might never come.”

And…from the CF:
“Our team has relied on our pitching, and they’ve done a great job. We need to get going as an offense, though. I think it’s good timing that we’ve got everybody together now. We’ve relied on the pitching staff all year, and we need to start giving them help.”
--snip--
“To have the season we’re having so far, I think we have to step back for a second and say we’re playing pretty well. Still, you always want to do better, and I know we can do better.”

Finally from the SS:
“Teams have won 114 games and still had times when they didn’t score runs. When a team goes 162-0, then you’ll see a team that never had a slump.”

Those words must be coming from Acta, Sizemore, and Asdrubal looking for some patience, right?
Actually, those are quotes this week from Cholly Manuel, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins on the Phillies’ recent struggles at the plate, passed along by B-Pro’s John Perrotto.

Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat this and attempt to put some lipstick on a pig and tell you that the Indians’ offense is a thing of beauty or that it’s something that it’s not, but those quotes are fascinating in terms of how most Indians’ fans have tunnel vision on the Tribe (with good reason) and to see a team like the Phillies having similar struggles (over the same timeframe) at least lends some perspective on the Indians’ offensive situation. That said, the two situations are much different as the Phillies have players that DO have a track record of hitting, something that the Indians do not boast…outside of Choo, Sizemore, and Hafner.

However, even with those “established” offensive threats in Philly, in their last 30 games, the Phillies’ hitters have “boasted” the following hitting line:
.237 BA / .308 OBP / .357 SLG / .656 OPS
In that span, the Phillies have averaged 3.5 runs per game for a team that has gone 15-15 in those 30 games.

How do the Indians compare to that?
Well, in the Tribe’s last 30 games, their offense has posted this line:
.241 BA / .306 OBP / .386 SLG / .691 OPS
Just to further the comparison, the Indians have averaged 4.0 runs per game as the team has gone 13-17 in their last 30 games.

Now, is it true that the Indians scored 44 of their 120 runs over the last month or so in 3 games as they scored 19 against KC, 13 against the Blue Jays, and 12 versus the Reds?

Yes, meaning that they’ve averaged about 2.8 runs per game in the other 27 games, but if you take out the 3 highest scoring games for the Phillies over their last 30, they have averaged 2.9 runs per game in the other 27 games. While this is all semantics and “fun” with numbers, it is interesting that the “juggernaut” Phillies are experiencing the same offensive “issues” that the Indians have over the past month.

Of course, the Phillies rotation is light years ahead of the Indians’ starting staff and they’re able to weather the storm a little better, but for as bad as the Indians have looked at time over the past month, the Phillies – the team with the best record in the NL – has been just 2 games better in their last 30, done in by an inconsistent and underachieving offense…which is a familiar tune on the North Coast.
__________

That all said, the main issue with the Indians’ recent offensive struggles is that it’s so widespread you would think that a haz-mat suit would be necessary in the Tribe locker room, if only to prevent infection. As I mentioned on Twitter on Monday, since Hafner was placed on the DL, the entire lineup has gone limp, with the obvious exception of Asdrubal. While it doesn’t take a genius to figure that out, the cumulative numbers are stunning as here is what the Indians’ lineup has put forth since Hafner was shelved, if you exclude the contributions of Asdrubal in those 21 games:
.212 BA / .277 OBP / .320 SLG / .597 OPS

To put that another way, if you combine the contributions of every player not named Asdrubal since Hafner hit the DL, the team has a sub-.600 OPS over 21 games. For as much talk as Mike Brantley gets for being the Boy Wonder to Asdrubal’s Batman recently, Brantley has a .732 OPS over that 21-game stretch (Asdrubal’s OPS is .960 in that timeframe), so maybe Brantley has been better than the rest of the lineup and has shown flashes that he is just scratching the surface, but his contributions since Hafner hit the DL have hardly been Herculean, or even Asdrubalian.
__________

The obvious issue is that the players that are SUPPOSED to carry the offensive load need to…and for longer than the one or two week stretches that Choo or Santana may have gotten hot when they looked to be breaking out of it. What needs to happen with the offense is they need another player (or more) to step up beside Asdrubal and drive the ball with power as the power outage in the Indians’ middle of the lineup is nothing short of jarring. While the Batting Average for some players may dominate the airwaves or get more ink than necessary, if you want to know why the Indians’ offense is struggling, you need to look no further than the SLG for Santana and Choo.

Certainly that duo has been under the microscope in recent days, but I have yet to see mentioned what is obviously the major issue with both players – their alarming lack of power and a dearth of extra-base hits who generally drive the ball with authority and rack up XBH at steady clips.

Choo now has a .353 SLG (his OBP is .316) meaning that the only everyday player on the roster that Choo is outslugging is Orlando Cabrera…who is thankfully no longer an everyday player. Going further, Santana has a .386 SLG (his OBP is .362), meaning that the everyday players that Santana is outslugging are Uncle Orlando, Choo, and Hannahan.
Yes, Jack Hannahan has a higher SLG than SS Choo on June 9th…

While Santana at least has his OBP to fall back on as a point of some promise, Choo hasn’t gotten on base and hasn’t driven the ball with any authority all season. Just to put it into the proper context, The BLC has 14 XBH on the year, equaling the total put forth by…check this out…Adam Kennedy, Alberto Callaspo and Denard Span and fewer than Erick Aybar, Sam Fuld, and Miguel Olivo. Of course Evan Longoria and Eric Hosmer have only 13 XBH, but Longoria has played in 34 games and Hosmer has played in 32, while Choo has participated in 58 games. Up to this point in the season, Mark Ellis has had a higher percentage of plate appearances end result in an extra-base hit than Choo, who averaged 66 XBH over the last two seasons.
Yes, that Mark Ellis…

Of course, just eking out Choo in the XBH category is Carlos Santana, who has 18 XBH, which is lower than the amount tallied by noted slap-hitters Coco Crisp, Maicer Izturis, and Johnny Damon and while Santana’s OBP and batting eye certainly seem to be harbingers of an elite hitter, he needs to start driving the ball with the same frequency as he did when he arrived in Cleveland last year. Lest you forget, Santana had 18 XBH in his first 32 games as an Indian, as he drove balls around the park.

Now into June, the onus is on Choo and Santana to show that their past performance and their pedigree are going to start shining through. As the recent record has shown, Asdrubal (whose OBP is the same as Choo’s SLG) cannot carry an offense on his own, as much as he seems to be trying to do so. Choo and Santana need to make adjustments to carry this offense that has been in hibernation since Hafner went on the DL and the surest way to know that either player has turned the corner is going to be when they start driving the ball and generating some extra-base hits.

Despite reports that Hafner is almost ready to take BP, it’s obvious that he’s going to need some rehab starts and – as has been noted here before – the Indians head out to NL ballparks on June 24th for 9 games in which they will not be able to use a DH. Certainly, Hafner could come back to play against NL teams at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, but even if he were to return by the end of next week, the Indians will only have his services until they head out to the Left Coast for some NL baseball.

Thus, the burden falls onto the shoulders of Choo and Santana (plus Sizemore, still obviously not 100%) – to step into the chasm that is the Indians’ offense and start to provide the offensive production that was expected of them when the season started to drive the engine of the Tribe offense.
Until they do, the Indians’ offense figures to remain in neutral.
__________

Finally, while I realize that the fact that many of the eyes that find these words do so because they realize that better and more insightful analysis of the Indians exists outside of what gets delivered to doorsteps around Northeast Ohio, I would be remiss if I did not pass this along as it is simply to unbelievable to be true.

With the Indians in 1st place and in the midst of a serious downturn for the team, this “Q & A” actually appeared in this past weekend’s Akron Beacon Journal in Sheldon Ocker’s “The Write Stuff” in which Ocker answers “questions” that are posed to him by readers. This is merely a cut-and-paste, so this has not been altered in the least as here is the “question” and “answer” as they appear on the ABJ site:
Sheldon:
I am glad I don’t have to go to work every day doing something I hate. You hate what you do, and we hate the way you do it.
Alan Cartwright
A fan of 63 years

Dear Alan:
A fan of what? Mean-spirited emails? Your fandom has paid handsome dividends, because you are a master of executing (pun intended) these kinds of messages.
You think I hate what I do? Do you think I loathed writing this response?
S.O.

Again, with a 1st place team mired in a losing streak and a fanbase full of questions about how the team got to 1st place and whether they would/could stay there is surely more interested in The OC or the rotation or what was wrong with Choo…but THIS gets printed in the Sunday paper.
Really, THIS was really selected as a “question” for Ocker to “answer”…

Realizing that things are not what they once were in the newspaper business (and particularly at the ABJ), this is unbelievable to me that not only was this selected as one of the “questions” that Ocker replied to, but that an editor somewhere agreed to actually put it into print.

Perhaps I’m beating away at a the fossilized remains of a dinosaur (the story has no comments on it on the ABJ site), but to think that a percentage of Indians’ fans get their Indians’ information and opinion from the people responsible for that “question” being recognized, selected, “answered”, and printed is Exhibit V for why people who have wised up as to where to get their sports insight and opinion aren’t going to the newspapers anymore.

As for me, I find newspapers increasingly useful as I’m saving my fishwraps for packing items in boxes for the move later this summer. Other than that…no, there are diminishing reasons for the paper to arrive at anyone’s doorstep, particularly a newspaper with Sheldon Ocker on the payroll.
__________

That all said, it’s off to the Bronx to see if the Indians’ offense can be revived by Nova, Colon, Garcia, and Burnett while the Tribe pitchers attempt to keep the Yankee offense at bay as the Indians attempt to build some momentum or at least change course.

Indians Select Prep Shortstop Lindor

With the 8th overall pick in the 1st round of the 2011 MLB Draft, the Indians selected high school shortstop Francisco Lindor out of Monteverde Academy in Monteverde, FL. Lindor is just 17 years old, and won’t turn 18 until November 14 of this year. He’s 5’11”, 170lbs but is far from done growing. He’s wiry strong, and will likely add some more muscle to his frame but is not expected to bulk up so much that he outgrows the SS position.

Lindor is a switch hitter, which is somewhat rare for a high school SS. I actually predicted the Lindor pick last week in my draft preview, before changing my mind and having the Diamondbacks select him one pick earlier in my mock yesterday. So the only reason I didn’t have us taking Lindor yesterday is because I thought he’d be off the board.

Lindor’s calling card is his defense. He’s a smooth, athletic fielder with soft hands and a strong arm. He makes difficult plays look easy, and throws well on the move. He’s a plus defender who will have no problem sticking at SS for the long haul. He’s very good moving to his right and making the jump-throw to 1B on balls in the hole behind him. In addition to making the spectacular plays, Lindor is a steady fielder on the routine groundballs as well, posting a fielding % over .900 his senior year. ESPN’s Jason Churchill called Lindor the best HS defensive infielder in the entire draft, saying that “Lindor makes ‘crazy play after crazy play’ at shortstop, according to scouts who have seen him this spring, and the arm is at least a 60 on the scouting scale. He also possesses plus lateral range and moves as well to his left as any prep shortstop in recent memory.”

In addition to his plus defense, Lindor is no slouch at the plate. A switch hitter, he projects to have an above-average hit tool and at least average power for the position. Not seen as a big power guy, he opened some eyes by winning the the AFLAC HR Derby last year. The derby was held in Petco Park, a notorious pitchers park where even major league hitters struggle to hit home runs. Lindor surprised everyone by muscling out 4 HR to beat out some guys who are much bigger than he is and seen as more “power” guys. This isn’t to guarantee that he’ll have plus power down the road, but it’s a good sign that he will hit at least 15-20 HR a season once he develops. Here’s some footage of Lindor at the prelims for the AFLAC HR Derby, which were held at the University of San Diego.

Lindor had an outstanding senior season at Monteverde, hitting a stellar .528 with 6 HR. He had 28 hits on the season, 15 of which went for extra bases. Lindor also stole 20 bases in 21 attempts, showcasing above average speed and his outstanding baseball instincts. He has played the game of baseball virtually since he could walk, growing up in Puerto Rico before moving to Florida when he was 12.

Lindor was a member of the U16 National Team that won a gold medal in Taiwan in 2009. He hit an even .500 in Taiwan, with 3 triples and 6 SB. Lindor was seen as a leader on that team, and his coaches have always loved his makeup. He’s been described as a baseball rat who is always on a field somewhere, which is great to hear about your top pick. There are no off the field issues or on the field attitude problems with Lindor. He’s a leader on the field and his high school coach absolutely raves about not only his talent, but his leadership and the great example he sets every time he steps foot on the diamond.

A lot of experts were expecting the Indians to stay “safe” and select a college arm with their 1st round pick. That’s the formula they followed the past two years, taking Alex White and Drew Pomeranz with their 1st pick. But scouting director Brad Grant maintained all along that he wanted the best player available when the Indians went on the clock, and he didn’t waver from that strategy one bit. "There's certainly more of a risk with a young high school player," said Grant. "He’s still 17 years old. When you look at that, the development path is going to be a little bit longer. But at the same time, to get a young shortstop in our system is something that was too good to pass by. He's a special player."

Lindor had a late push to go as high as #2 overall to Seattle, as reports had him wowing the Mariners brass in his private workouts. He doesn’t have one single plus-plus tool, but projects to be above-average across the board. He actually profiles very similarly to our current shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera although he isn’t built as thick and doesn’t project to have quite as much pop as Droobs is showing this season. There’s little doubt that he was the best player on the board at #8 overall, and I’m thrilled that the Indians selected him.

Now it comes time to get a contract done, and that is something that will probably go right down to the August 15 deadline. Lindor is committed to Florida State, and will almost certainly want over slot dollars. The Indians knew this going in though, and won’t be surprised by his bonus demands. The MLB commissioner’s office doesn’t like over slot deals to get done too early because it sets a bad precedent, so look for him to sign for around $2.5 million sometime on August 15. With the uncertainty of the new collective bargaining looming and the possibility of hard slotting on the horizon, Lindor would be wise to sign a deal for whatever he can get this year. It won’t be an easy process, but I think there’s a 90% chance that a deal gets done eventually.

Rounds 2-30 of the MLB draft kick off today at noon. Expect the Indians to stay aggressive and follow their 2010 model where they take quality talent later in the draft and offer them big $ to sign. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; the most cost-effective way to build a quality organization is through the draft, even when paying over slot. I fully expect that the club will continue their recent trend of taking the BPA throughout most of the draft, then doing what it taked to get those players signed and in the organization when it's all said and done.

-Got a draft or prospect question? Ask Al on Twitter, @gotribe31

2011 MLB Mock Draft

The 1st round of the MLB Draft kicks off tonight at 7pm when the Pittsburgh Pirates go on the clock. The Indians select 8th overall, and then don’t pick again until the 2nd round, after all of the supplemental picks. So there’s going to be an awful long wait from #8 to #67, including 10(!) picks for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Last week, I did a two-part profile of some of the players the Indians are likely considering for the #8 pick, first focusing on the college players and then looking at the high schoolers who are options for the Tribe in the 1st round. I cannot stress enough how important it is for the Indians to nail this pick, as the draft really is the most affordable way to build a team. Lefty Drew Pomeranz, last year's 1st round pick who is dominating high A right now, signed for $2.65 million. That sounds expensive until you realize that they will have him under club control for SEVEN years. For the sake of comparison, we're paying Austin Kearns half that for one season to be the 4th OF. So while bonuses at the top of the draft have been escalating over the past few years, it's still bargain IF you get the right guy.

Due to popular demand, I’m going to put up my mock draft for the first 10 picks of the draft. This is who I think will go in these slots, not necessarily who I think should go. If you’re interested in how I see the players talent-wise, my personal board will be included (free of charge!) at the end. With that being said, on to the mockery:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP-UCLA
Cole has been at or near the top of everyone’s board all season long. He has two pitches that already grade out as plus; his 96-98 MPH four-seam fastball that touches triple digits, and a nasty changeup that he throws between 84-97. The change is especially effective because he throws it with the same arm speed as his fastball. His slider is already above average, and could develop into a third plus pitch. He’s a tremendous competitor, and at 6’4”/220lbs has a workhorse body. He’s pretty much everything you’d want in a #1 starter, and will arrive on the scene before last year’s blue-chipper Jameson Tallion.

2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B-Rice
Rendon went into 2011 as the top position player in the draft, and he maintained that status despite a shoulder injury that sapped him of some of his power. The injury isn’t expected to effect him past this season, and he should be back to his old self by spring training next year. Rendon has played some 2B for Rice this spring, but is expected to be a plus defender at 3B in the pros. He’ll hit for average and power, and has an advanced approach at the plate to the point that he rarely swings at a pitch outside the strike zone. Seattle made some waves by giving high school SS prospect Francisco Lindor a private workout and there’s some speculation that he could end up going here, but in the end I think Rendon will be too tough to pass up. He’ll slot in well in a future infield with Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Trevor Bauer, RHP-UCLA
Here’s where it gets interesting. Arizona has been high on Hultzen throughout the process. He’s a polished lefty who doesn’t have a sky-high ceiling, but he also has a very high floor and is considered as close to a sure thing as there is in the draft. But Bauer might be too tempting to pass up. He had a dominating season for UCLA, striking out in IP. He’ll move quickly through the system, although he probably won’t pitch anywhere this year regardless of when he signs. The UCLA coaching staff rode him hard down the stretch, and he threw over 120 pitches in a number of outings. The smart money is for him to rest in 2011, then open 2012 at high A or even AA.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Danny Hultzen, LHP-Virginia
Baltimore would be thrilled for Hultzen to make it to #4, given that he was projected just a month ago as a possible choice for #1 overall. High school righty Archie Bradley has more upside, but Baltimore is a little gun shy towards prep arms given their past draft history. Hultzen is similar to Brian Matsuz, and will move quickly through their system to join an already young and talented rotation in a year or two. Hultzen has made it know that he wants upwards of $10 million to sign, but college juniors don't have a whole lot of leverage and he'll likely settle for less than that.

5. Kansas City Royals: Dylan Bundy, RHP-Owasso HS (Oklahoma)
The Royals want an advanced college arm to arrive on the scene sooner rather than later because they have a "wave" of prospects that are already close to major league ready. With Bauer and Hultzen off the board in this scenario, they take the next best thing; an advance high school arm that should move quickly through the system. Bundy has as much upside as any pitcher in the draft, and that includes Cole. He has a four-pitch mix including a plus fastball that touches triple digits, and has shown outstanding command and control. One thing that could cause the Royals to pass; he's made it known that he wants a $30 million signing bonus. That would shatter the current record, and he'll probably end up signing for more like $7 or $8 million.

6. Washington Nationals: Bubba Starling, OF-Gardner-Edgerton HS (Kansas)

Washington is picking all the way down at #6 after selecting 1st overall the past two drafts. If they pick Starling here though, they could get the best talent in the draft for the third year in a row. Starling is committed to Nebraska on a football scholarship, but he's a potential 5-tool superstar in centerfield. A smooth defender with a cannon for an arm, Starling also has the hitting tools to bat 3rd on a championship level team. He's going to cost a bundle to sign, but the Nationals have seen a nice fan boost in the past after taking Strasburg and Harper so they know what it would mean to the franchise to walk away from this draft with a talent like Starling. I know a lot of Indians fans want him, but I just don't see him falling to #8 overall.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Francisco Lindor, SS-Monteverde Acadamey (FL)
This pick is a huge wildcard for me. It's an unprotected pick that Arizona was given for their failure to sign last year's 1st round pick, Barrett Loux. So if they take a guy here and can't come to terms with him, they lose the pick entirely with no compensation next year. Still, they have a chance to snag two really elite talents, and I can't see how they would pass on Lindor with the board looking like it does here. Lindor is a potential impact talent in the field and at the plate, and he's even being considered #2 overall for Seattle. If talent is the main factor here, Lindor is the pick. If not, look for a college arm like Sonny Gray, Matt Barnes or Jed Bradley.

8. Cleveland Indians: Archie Bradley, RHP-Broken Arrow HS (Oklahoma)
I'm trusting Brad Grant to have the authority to spend some $$ here and take the best player available. That player would be high school righthander Archie Bradley. He has a triple digit fastball, and what ESPN's Keith Law and others have stated is the "best curveball in the draft." He's a big, physical guy at 6'3", 215lbs and offers a lot of projection. He's committed to play QB at Oklahoma and wants a big signing bonus, but should sign eventually. He offers more projection than even Drew Pomeranz, and has true ace potential. It would be a few years before he made it to the majors, but the payoff down the road could be tremendous. If the Indians decide they would rather go slot here and spend more money later in the draft, look for a college arm. There has been some talk of Jed Bradley to the Tribe here, but that doesn't make sense to me. Jed Bradley is a collegiate lefty with a good fastball and a decent changeup, but really no third pitch. Jed has struggled for Georgia Tech this year, and doesn't have a great track record of success. I'll be really, really upset if they Indians walk away from this draft with Jed Bradley in the first round.

9. Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez, 3B-Arlington Country Day HS (FL)
Baez is a name that the Indians were reportedly considering at #8. He's a high school shortstop that is expected to outgrow the position and move to 3B. He's got possibly the quickest bat in the draft, and projects to have plus power at the major league level. He has soft hands and a strong arm, and should be a plus defender at 3B. Teams are a little worried about his makeup, as he's seen as a "me first" guy on the field and aloof off of it. Still, he's a top-15 talent no doubt, and would fit well in a Cubs system that doesn't have a lot of position player prospects.

10. San Diego Padres: Taylor Jungmann, RHP-Texas

Another unprotected pick, San Diego will likely go with a college arm here. Jungmann has a great track record of success with Texas, and is seen as a surefire #3 or possibly a #2. Like Hultzen, he's seen as a very safe pick with a very high floor. He doesn't have the ceiling of a Hultzen, but should be a productive member of a major league rotation in a couple of years. He's got outstanding makeup, and scouts rave about his composure and competitiveness on the mound. He profiles as a Justin Masterson type guy, with a heavy, sinking fastball and above average slider. Jungmann is a possibility for the Indians at #8 if they end up going with a college arm.

My Board:

So if I had a chance to send a draft board to Brad Grant and company to use today, here is what it would look like:

1. Gerrit Cole

2. Anthony Rendon

3. Bubba Starling

4. Dylan Bundy

5. Trevor Bauer

6. Archie Bradley

7. Danny Hultzen

8. Javier Baez

9. Taylor Jungmann

10. Taylor Gurrieri

11. Alex Meyer

12. Sonny Gray

13. Matt Barnes

14. George Springer

15. Mikie Mahtook

We'll see who they end up with. Only the first round is tonight, with rounds 2-30 tomorrow and then 31-50 finishing up on Wednesday. Regardless of who is selected in the 1st round, there's plenty of talent out there that can be acquired in rounds 2-50. But the 1st round pick is the best chance to land an elite talent, and we're all hoping that the Indians pick the right player with that choice. Because if all goes as planned the rest of this summer, we'll be picking about 23 spots later in next June's draft....

-Got a draft or prospect question? Ask Al on Twitter, @gotribe31

The Tribe Abides on A Lazy Sunday

Around the time that Tony Sipp allowed his 2nd HR of Friday’s game against the Rangers, I decided that I needed to spend the remainder of my Friday night in a better mood. With The DiaBride having gone to bed, as we await the arrival of child #3 to the growing Tribe in these parts (literally) any day now, it was time to relax with a little viewing of “The Big Lebowski”. While I enjoyed the umpteenth viewing of the Coen Brothers’ second best movie (this is clearly the best), I started to drift away to sleep, snapping awake oddly enough at the conclusion of the movie. While I realize that my audience does not need to be reminded of the final scene of “The Big Lebowski”, it involves The Dude and The Stranger at the bowling alley bar, with the final words of The Dude hanging out in the air, “The Dude Abides”…

After spending the better part of Saturday still waiting for a child to arrive (counting intervals between contractions), the words stuck with me, much in the way that The Stranger savors them and repeats the philosophy of a beloved SoCal slacker…“The Dude Abides”.

In thinking about this Indians’ team, the one that has looked so horrible recently and has remained atop the AL Central despite some warts that are being shown under the bright lights, is it apropos to say that “The Tribe Abides”?

While I point out that three AL teams had winning records in BOTH April and May (the Yankees, the Rays, and YOUR Cleveland Indians), there is a growing sense that this ride is about to veer completely off course. With every national (and local) columnist and talking head wondering openly if the Indians are “returning to Earth” or were invoking a “pumpkin watch” for the Tribe, the Indians have simply continued to hang around, inexplicably playing around .500 baseball while all signs on their roster would point to a complete and utter bottoming out, particularly over the last two weeks.

What’s happened in the last two weeks?
The Indians have faced off against the Reds, the Red Sox, the Rays, the Blue Jays, and the Rangers and have looked dreadful at times, oftentimes more in line with what was expected of them by most at the season’s dawn than the team that was on display for the first 6 weeks or so of the season. On one hand, you can blame the brutality of the schedule and some of their pitching match-ups as they faced Beckett, Lester, Shields, Price, and Hellickson. But they also faced Volquez, Jo-Jo Reyes, Drabek, and a spot starter in Dave Bush, with neither rhyme nor reason lending any insight into which of those games would turn into victories.

They’ve looked bad and worse at times over these last two weeks…and yet, the Tribe abides, still sitting atop the AL Central, inexplicably going 7-8 over their last 15 and while that may not conjure up images of a playoff contender, things could be a LOT worse for the Indians, as evidenced by what the team has put forth over those last two weeks, in terms of individual and collective performance.

Despite that 7-8 record, things have been ugly for the Indians at most times and the main reason has been the performance of the starting pitchers, which had been the strength of the team to this point. In an alarming turn of events, the Indians have given up 7 or more runs in 6 of the last 10 games and, more acutely, 5 of the last 7 games. Certainly, any teams that put up that amount of runs against another team are going to benefit from bashing away at the rotation, and the last two weeks has certainly shown some kinks in the Tribe rotation’s armor.

Just to jump off of something pointed out in AC’s minutiae and update it for Friday’s game, the Indians’ rotational ERA over the last 14 days is now 6.00 (worst in the AL) with a 1.58 WHIP, which is 2nd worst in the AL over that timeframe. Compare that to the Indians’ starting five posting a 3.88 ERA for the month of April (with a 1.26 WHIP) and you start to see whey the Indians have started to struggle to piece together consecutive wins at the same frequency that they did during their magical April.

With the small sample size siren blaring, what’s even more disconcerting is that the Indians’ rotation has not only collectively dropped off, but they’ve done it individually as well if you look at the numbers for the current Tribe starters over the last month. While Talbot has only started two games in the last month, the other current quartet have all started at least 5 games, with their totals for the last month looking like this:
Masterson – 4.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 3.34 FIP
Tomlin – 4.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.84 FIP
Carrasco – 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.18 FIP
Carmona – 6.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 5.17 FIP
Talbot – 8.38 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, 5.32 FIP
Yet the Indians are 14-15 in that stretch though the numbers for the starters over the last month are unquestionably a cause for concern as no starter has accumulated a sub-4.00 ERA over the last month.

Interestingly, some of this may not be their fault as I included FIP in there to show how the Indians’ starters have been adversely affected by the Indians’ recent shoddy defense as the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) – which attempts to “measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible” as it (ideally) “helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded” – for each starter is significantly lower for the same last 30-day timeframe.

The inclusion of that FIP is not meant to absolve the Indians’ starters for their struggles over the last 30 days, or even the last 14 days, where NO Indians’ starter has an ERA below 5.00. Rather, what’s amazing is the Indians is that the Indians are 7-8 in their last 15 games in which their rotation has been inconsistent…to be kind as Masterson (5.68 ERA over last 3 starts), Tomlin (5.21 ERA over last 3 starts), Carrasco (5.50 ERA over last 3 starts), Carmona (7.36 ERA over last 3 starts), and Talbot (8.38 ERA over last 2 starts) have sabotaged the Indians’ chances at winning most of their games…but the Indians still have won at nearly a .500 clip despite this.

As much as “wins and losses are the only things that matter”, the recent performance of the rotation is obviously cause for concern. Perhaps it was inevitable that the Indians were due for some regression, given how they raced out of the gate, but remember that run differential that was pointed to as a manner of asserting that the Indians were not a fluke and that they were winning games that they should win, based on outpacing their opponents at an absurd pace?

Well, that +66 run differential (built over 44 games) back on May 22nd has shrunk by more than half as of Saturday (+26 entering Sunday’s tilt) in the last 12 games. Perhaps their divisional lead hasn’t been THAT affected, as the Tigers have only gained 3 ½ games in that stretch of 12 games in which the Indians had a -40 run differential. Regardless, this swing in run differential means that the pitching has been pretty bad as run differential is (obviously) going to be affected pretty severely by some bad pitching performances and the Indians have been sabotaged by some as of late, as the numbers above bear out.

To pull out of this tailspin for the rotation, the Indians don’t really have much by way of much more than hope that the top of their rotation (Masterson and Tomlin) can revert back to their April ways and that the middle-of-the-rotation can fix their (mostly self-inflicted) afflictions so the team can continue to tread water at the very least. Maybe playing .500 ball shouldn’t be the stated “goal” right now, but with the Rangers about to leave town and with the Yankees’ arrival not far off, “treading water” doesn’t sound that bad.

To even do that however, it would be a lot easier if Masterson were to recapture some degree of his dominance, for Tomlin to get back to his beguiling ways and for one of either Carrasco or Carmona to start to figure out how to not let things unravel for them in particular situations or innings. Maybe that’s being overly optimistic, but if the Indians could even get some consistency out of their top 3 (whoever that “third” may be), their staying power at the top of the AL Central only increases. As for what happens at the back of the rotation, don’t overestimate what a 4th or 5th starter should be in MLB, but also don’t forget that the Indians could dip into some of their depth in AAA (McAllister or Jeanmar) if need be to see if they represent an upgrade over Talbot or even Carrasco.

Don’t take that to mean that I think either McAllister or Gomez is better than Talbot or Carrasco right now (and I’m still irrationally holding out hope that CarCar is that “3rd starter” who will start to shoulder some of the load) as I would expect both ‘Los and The Fury to outperform the duo currently in the Minors for the long haul. However, if compelling options in Columbus become more compelling, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Indians tweak their rotation in an attempt to keep their divisional lead or to find the right mix of arms (at the right time) going forward.

Whatever may happen, what remains stunning is that the Indians are 7-8 in their last two weeks or so as their rotation has fallen apart…which means that the offense has carried the flag for the team, right?

Well…no, not at all actually.
Over that same “last 14 day” timeframe, the Indians’ offense has a collective .691 OPS (10th in the AL) and has scored 49 runs in the 13 games in that timeframe. So, as the Indians’ rotation started to falter (with a 6.00 ERA), the Indians’ offense averaged 3.76 runs per game, striking out in nearly 25 PERCENT (24.5%) of their AB…and STILL the Indians played nearly .500 ball in that stretch.

Yes, the Tribe abides…
Whether that’s simply good luck, good managing, or some stunning reversal of karmic forces that have always worked against the city of Cleveland, it’s a nice thing to point out – that they’ve overcome bad starting pitching and an inconsistent offense to continue to win any games. Or…it’s not really a “nice thing to point out” as it represents some serious underlying issues that are starting to show their head above the surface.

Perhaps the starting pitching rounds back into form (“back” being the key word there), but if the Indians are going to continue to keep their lead in the Central through the month of June, they’re going to need a serious turnaround offensively. While this is still the team that posted a 19 on the scoreboard in Kansas City, a 12-spot on the Reds at home, and plated 13 runs in the Rogers Centre (and these games are all within the last month), the Indians’ offense has been inconsistent – particularly recently – as they’ve struggled to get multiple players going at once, except for a game here or there.

By that I mean that certain players have been hot for a time (then cold for a time) and that particular players have carried the offense at various stages in the year, but if you’re attempting to minimize small sample sizes here, the consistency for the team’s offensive components just haven’t been there. To get a good look at this, consider the OPS by month for the Tribe’s principal position players. While I realize that the “month-by-month” numbers are simply separated by the flip of a calendar and nothing more, check out these numbers:
OPS by Month
Player – April/May
Sizemore – 1.251/.523
Hafner - .959/.955
Hannahan - .859/.494
LaPorta - .818/.701
Asdrubal - .791/.947
Brantley - .766/.760
Choo - .725/ .681
Santana - .722/.786
Orlando - .681/.537

Yes, months are just easy endpoints to reference and this new “Era of the Pitcher” plays a role here (LaPorta’s OPS is .790, while his and OPS+ is 122), but the only player to post an OPS over .800 for each month is Hafner – the guy who might not play in June – and the only two players who posted an OPS of even just .750 or over in BOTH April and May are Asdrubal and Brantley.

So there has been little consistency from a pack of position players whose past and whose pedigree would suggest that more than one player among that group would have an OPS over .800 for each of the first two months. But they haven’t and it points out the importance of what a healthy and productive Hafner and Sizemore means to this lineup as it takes pressure off of players who are struggling with consistency.

As much as there is a feeling that Choo is “ready to break out”, it’s a feeling that has now come and gone a couple of times and, without Sizemore and Hafner in there, Choo is really the only proven player in the lineup (prior to this year) upon whom you could reasonably expect to turn things around. Up to this point, Asdrubal has been the straw that has stirred the drink (with AC giving a nice overview of what he’s done), but the Indians are going to need more consistency out of their lineup.

Realizing that Sizemore and Hafner have been gone for stretches and seeing as how Choo has been more inconsistent in this one year than he’s been in any of the previous three, to see the hot-and-cold nature of the offense is to realize that this is still a young offensive team with Santana (192 career MLB PA entering 2011), Brantley (446 career MLB PA entering 2011), and LaPorta (623 career MLB PA entering 2011) being asked to carry more than a small share of the load when they’re still adjusting to MLB as young players.

What we’ve seen bear itself out in the last two weeks is that inconsistency up and down the lineup as the Indians’ offensive contributors over the past two weeks have gone into a bit of a collective rut as the performances for the players with more than 25 PA in the last 14 days looks like this:
Asdrubal – 1.138
Buck – .776
Santana – .765
LaPorta – .678
Brantley – .669
Hannahan – .667
Sizemore – .628
Choo – .560
Orlando – .359
While I’ll hold off on any snide remarks or mention any crusades concerning the final name, there are major causes for concern here as every player but Asdrubal, Buck, and Santana has a sub-.700 OPS over a two week stretch and as much as it’s fun to picture a lineup of a healthy and productive “one-to-nine” that includes Brantley, Asdrubal, Sizemore, Santana, Hafner, Choo, LaPorta…and a couple of youngsters, most of the names in that list (save Asdrubal) have struggled or have been injured this year, sometimes for long stretches of time.

And yet, they are 7-8 in their last 15 games as they may be thrashing about in the water, drawing more attention to themselves for how “in danger” they look, but they continue to tread water and they continue to abide.

Perhaps a time comes when the water overcomes them because of their lack of experience with their head above the water or for lack of simple survival skills, but for now they continue to hang on. Whether they can keep up the winning while underperforming in some pretty important aspects of the game (you know…starting pitching, defense, offense, etc.) will bear itself out going forward as they can’t keep playing like they have and expect to remain atop their division, regardless of the flaws that may exist on their divisional rivals’ rosters.

The warts that have been exposed are ugly and perhaps not that easily remedied, but if I may paraphrase a White Russian-loving, “Jellies”-wearing bowler whose philosophy on life happens to appeal to me, particularly as I ready myself for two kids in diapers, a new minivan and a new house that will all hit this summer…
“Yeah, well the Tribe abides.”

So as I break out my best slow-paced, Sam Sheppard whiskey-soaked voice here and continue the paraphrasing to suit myself and ease my growing concerns:
The Tribe abides.
I don’t know about you, but I take comfort in that.
Its good knowin’ they’re out there.
The Tribe.
Makin’ it fun for all us in need of winners.
Shoosh.
I sure hope they make the playoffs.

Actually, I just hope they continue to abide…