A Lazy Sunday Planning Ahead

As the events in Madison last night ensure that 2010 will go down as one of the most disappointing news for sports on the North Coast, and not just in recent memory, we wait for Colt McCoy to be thrown into the fire in the Steel City and await what figures to be a Sunday on par with what we’ve been experiencing all year. Nevertheless, the weather is beautiful outside and the leaves are various stages of turning and falling, so let’s enjoy the best time of the year in Cleveland…regardless of the events in the sporting world that have affected us over the last year. Before we go out to enjoy said weather though, let’s get loose on a Lazy One…

With the news that The Atomic Wedgie will be heading out to the Emerald City (where I can’t imagine Milton Bradley sticks around), allow me to direct your eyes to a terrific piece from Andrew Humphries of LGT that effectively shines a light on Wedge’s shortcomings and oversights as the Indians’ manager (Garko in LF, among other topics, brilliantly skewered) under the guise of Wedge’s “convincing” nature in an interview.

Other than Wedge being a man-in-demand as teams interviewed for managerial openings, the only real happenings in the Wigwam this week came courtesy of the Choo “story” that he had given an interview to some Korean reporters in LAX, setting off the requisite firestorm of manufactured negativity and outrage locally, as the doom-and-gloom that Choo wanted to leave (and the intellectual leap that he was “right” to leave because the Indians were a minor-league team) became an accepted reaction to this “story”.

Of course as you can see in the linked story, the Indians refuted the story came out in Wednesday’s print edition, and with the PD waiting until Friday morning to pass along the rebuttal of fact as well as the original reporters “apology” online. However, it is interesting in this timeline that until the PD printed the “apology” piece in Saturday’s paper (page D4, no less), despite the fact that another Korean journalist attempted to clear the air in the message below that was picked up both by the link provided by Castro and Calcaterra hours after the PD ran the initial story:
Choo said, purely out of envy, he wanted to play on a winning team after watching other guys pop champagne for clinching playoff berths. But he didn’t say the word “transfer” (should have been translated into ‘trade’' It’s baseball, not soccer) as far as I know. But he also said he wants to stay with one club for a long time and Cleveland would be his first choice. Then he said his agent would take care of his contract situation and that he hadn’t heard anything special from the agent.

This is all pretty fuzzy stuff as it was clearly a he-said-he-said situation made cloudier by translation and the context of the answer (in terms of what question it was in response to) or even what Choo really said remains a mystery. Choo was probably asked if he’s been watching the playoffs and responded that it would be nice to be in a position to “pop champagne for clinching playoff berths”, which he obviously has not in Cleveland.

Really though, we don’t know what he said as we have the original story (passed on by the PD) and the rebuttal (passed along by Castro and Calcaterra...and two days later, by the PD) providing disparate messages. Ultimately, it was a non-story (though it did remain the lead Indians’ story on cle.com for a solid two days, garnering all sorts of outrage and inane baseball philosophizing from those who specialize in outrage and inanity) that was refuted quickly after it was published by multiple media outlets.

So, yeah…nothing to see here, please move along…
Regardless, since The BLC is the Tribe’s top priority (the way that getting Aerosmith tickets was once the “top priority of the summer” for some high-schoolers in the mid-70s), let’s use the Choo story as the segue into what the Indians should be looking to do this off-season since...well, there are no real “stories” to talk about, other than the miraculous possible return of (knocking firmly on wood) Atom Miller.

Since all of the “here’s what happened” pieces have been written and the 2010 season has been examined by the coroner and the funeral directory and now lies 6 feet deep, the attention has to turn to the future and what the off-season holds (or should hold) for YOUR Cleveland Indians. What they should do, besides obviously making some changes to their uniforms (and from the looks of the front of the 2011 schedule that was handed out at the last home game, it looks as if a switch to the white border around the “C” may be in the offing), can be broken down into moves that are going to happen, like re-signing arbitration-eligible players (though the manner in which they happen is up for debate), and the moves that could happen, like acquiring new players via Free Agency or via trades.

Thus, if I may be so bold, allow me to present to you the one man’s blueprint for the Indians’ off-season. It may not lead to a rush on the Tribe Box Office or jam up the 216-420-HITS line, but it presents a realistic approach to the off-season, acknowledging where this team is (not simply one or two players away from obvious contention) and what the organization should be using 2011 as in an effort to create a legitimate contender in the AL Central...just not necessarily in 2011.

Perhaps you feel that the team is closer to making a run at the AL Central in 2011, but this season showed (me, at least) that the Indians are going to be counting on injured players returning to form AND young players taking the a step out of the abyss AND continued the health and maturation of nearly all of their young talent. Maybe one of those things happens and we’re all pleasantly surprised as the 2011 begins, but I’m having trouble seeing it all come together for the team next year and figure that 2012 is what the team should realistically shoot for in terms of arrival, instead of deluding themselves that just a few pieces and parts need to be added this off-season.

Thus, without further ado or introduction, here are the moves that I’d like to see the Indians execute in this off-season, getting as specific as possible in most cases:
Money Now, Options Later
This has gotten more “ink” than probably any first-year arbitration-eligible case in recent memory (other than Ryan Howard’s) and revisiting this topic is taking the 9-iron to that dead horse on the ground over there as nobody knows what approach Scott Boras is going to bring to the table, nor does anyone know how Boras is going to manipulate the media into painting Choo as a “victim” in this process. Boras could come to the bargaining table with a portfolio that puts Choo on par with the game’s elite (and I could probably put that portfolio together for him) in the last three years and could ask for the moon.

It’s not likely that Boras gives away a year or two (or more) of FA without some serious dollars being involved and, seeing how Choo will be 31 when the 2013 season ends (the last year he’s under Tribe control right now), I’m not sure if committing huge dollars to a player that will be 32 or 33 or 34 in the later years of a guaranteed contract is the path the Indians should be taken given recent contracts to similarly-aged players, positional value or not.

Regardless of all of that, this arbitration process is still a process and the precedents are there for both Boras and the Indians to use as parameters. Jon Steiner at WFNY (the Choo-contract expert) lays out those parameters very well and ultimately sees one of three outcomes this off-season:
• They go to arbitration. ChooBoras lose their $5.5 million demand. Choo makes $3.9 million.
• They sign a one-year deal worth $4.5 million.
• They sign a three-year deal: 2011 – $4 million; 2012 – $6.5 million; 2013 – $10.5 million.

I think that the numbers there are about right (and Scenario #3 pays him $21M over 3 years), but if you’re asking me how I approach it, I still think that “front-loading” or “leveling the numbers” in the contract and giving Choo money in 2011 and 2012 that he certainly wouldn’t earn in the arbitration process is the only way that the Indians entice Choo to add an extra year, or an option, on the deal past 2013.

What that means would be something along the lines (as I said a while back) of doing something where the Indians give him, “a 3-year deal worth $24M to buy out his arbitration years...and work the numbers so he’s getting paid $8M annually and not on some sort of escalating scale” as these arbitration years usually progress.

If the Indians give Choo $3M to $4M more than he’d likely earn in arbitration for 2011 and a couple million dollars more than he’d likely earn in arbitration for 2012, is it enough of an enticement to have Boras agree to a $12M club option for 2014, with something like a $2M buyout?

Who knows, and the Indians have a history of locking up “key” arbitration-eligible players in the past, but we certainly haven't heard the end of this one...whether we want to or not.

Holding off on Extensions
Speaking of that history of locking up “key” arbitration-eligible players in the past, I realize that I’m probably in the minority on this, but I don’t offer either Chris Perez or Asdrubal Cabrera long-term deals, attempting to (as the Indians have done in the past) buy out arbitration years and maybe a year of FA, with a club option on top of that.

As I said, this may not be the popular move among many, but the reality is that Perez is coming off of his best season to date (with the question of whether it is sustainable in the volatile world of relief pitchers being EXTREMELY relevant) and Cabrera is coming off his worst (in terms of performance vs. expectations), so the question is whether the Indians should attempt to parlay more guaranteed money in 2011 and 2012 into gaining club control past 2013.

If I’m making that decision right now, as much as Chris F. Perez asserted himself down the stretch for the Indians in 2010 and looks to have finally stabilized the 9th inning for the Tribe, I still go year-to-year right now with Perez, simply given that volatility of relievers and with the idea that there are no guarantees (Ferd Cabrera v.2005, Jenny Lewis v.2008) for success from one year to waterfall into the next for relievers. Maybe Perez is that exception (and, truthfully, I hope that he is), but I’d exchange numbers with Perez’s people and sign him to a one-year deal.

The intent is not to screw Perez out of guaranteed money or to intimate that I don’t think that 2010 is him just scratching the surface, but in Cleveland we’ve become so USED to the idea that we HAVE to lock all of these guys up because that’s what has been done. In reality, with positions like relievers and with players who are still relatively unproven (sorry, as great as that post-All-Star break ERA is, it is still less than 30 innings of MLB), the idea to go year-to-year (or simply delay a decision on a long-term deal) is a luxury that the Indians have, and in the case of Perez, they should use it.

Similarly, with Cabrera coming off of his worst season (in terms of what we thought we would see from him), the arbitration process should be used by the Indians to not only determine whether Cabrera will fulfill the potential that seemed to high in 2007 and 2009 and even potentially motivate Cabrera to prove his worth to the team.

While it may not have been widely reported, the fact is that Cabrera has come into the last few years out of shape, certainly affecting his range in the field and perhaps affecting his performance at the plate. If he’s coming into Spring Training out of shape and has not shown the commitment to conditioning to maximize his talent (particularly defensively), is that the type of player that you’d like to “reward” with a long-term deal?

The sentiment may exist that the Indians should be “buying low” on Cabrera, with the opportunity to lock up his services at a discounted rate, but motivation may be a factor and, after seeing Fausto Carmona sprout a spare tire after signing his long-term deal, I’d be more inclined to use 2011 as a proving ground for Cabrera, for him to utilize it to show that he is worthy of receiving a long-term deal and that he should be thought of as a “core” player for the Tribe.

Memories of Jhonny Peralta’s decline from 2005 to 2009 are too fresh to not let it serve as a lesson as to how a promising player can get stuck in neutral (or worse) and the decreasing range and the expanding waistline of Cabrera in the past two years play too much into my fear that Peralta’s career arc is the one that Asdrubal is following. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d use 2011 to find out instead of simply rewarding Cabrera for past performance instead of future production.

All told with these two, just because it has always been the Tribe’s MO to lock up arbitration years and buy a couple of years of FA doesn’t mean that it’s unequivocally a great idea for every player as soon as they hit arbitration. Look at Rafael Perez, who righted the ship in 2010 (his first arbitration-eligible year) but certainly isn’t looked at as a candidate for a long-term deal because sometimes you just don’t know. Sometimes, going year-to-year with players isn’t a horrible strategy and with Perez (let’s see if he can sustain it) and Cabrera (let’s see if he can arise from his ashes), the Indians shouldn’t be too eager to sign either...even from a PR standpoint.

Jettison the Flotsam and Jetsam
In terms of keeping it with players currently on the 40-man roster, this one should be fairly easy and won’t get a lot of fanfare, but the Indians used 2009 and 2010 to “clear the decks” of their veteran players who didn’t obviously fit in past this year, and now it’s time to do the same with the young players that don’t obviously fit in past this year. My short list includes Crowe, Hodges, Marte, and Brown...and those are just the position players.

To all, I would wish the best of luck, but point out that if you were unable to seize the opportunity presented to you in 2010 (Crowe, who cannot field or hit) or were so far down the organizational pecking order given how much opportunity was out there in 2010 (Hodges, Marte, Brown), it would appear that your services are no longer required by the organization.

Perhaps you want to make the case for Crowe and Brown (most notably) to stick around, given their remaining options and the question marks that remain around 1B and LF, but I would counter that this team should be focusing on developing players that have the potential to be difference-makers (or at least better than replacement level) and these former prospects, now a little long in the tooth, have become redundancies in the organization and should be replaced by players, either internally (Ezequiel Carrera, for one, in the 4th OF mix) or from outside the organization (getting a RH bat to play 1B and/or LF usurps Brown’s usefulness) in an effort to truly upgrade the roster.

Certainly roster fodder like Drew Sutton and Luke Carlin fall into this category, so the Indians should thank them for their contributions while receiving thanks from the players for the opportunity and move on. If either wants to see how beautiful Columbus can be in the summertime next year, fine...but these players should have seen their last of the home locker room at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Lest you think I’m ready to simply throw everyone under the bus, Jensen Lewis does not get included here on the strength of the manner in which he closed out the season. Maybe that’s foolhardy (as Lewis has closed out seasons strong before) and maybe Lewis being out of options will prevent him from sticking around for too long. But maybe...just maybe, Lewis has finally figured out his role on this team – not as a 9th inning option, but rather as an organizational arm that bounces around the bullpen depending his effectiveness – and can at least settle into a 6th or 7th inning option while the arms in AAA sort themselves out. Additionally, for whatever reason and against my better judgment, I’m not including Chris Giminez on this list, mainly because of his status as the designated “pile-jumper” on the team and because his versatility (particularly as a C) holds some value, even if his bat does not.

At the end of the day, the time to move past some of the high draft picks (or, in the case of Marte, players traded for) who were supposed to represent the talent infusion that took place between 2008 and now. That “infusion” didn’t happen and the Indians should cut their losses with these guys and move on.

An Old Face for a Troubled Place
Moving onto the portion of the program that involves the acquisition of talent, the most obvious hole that will be filled (to some degree) this off-season is at the Hot Corner. As has been stated numerous times, given the Indians’ gaping hole at 3B and their lack of an obvious internal candidate at 3B (sorry, Nix is a miscast utility player who was forced into 3B and looked incapable of handling it defensively), the Indians will add to the MLB roster with a player that they hope can serve as a bridge to top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall, who figures to start the 2011 season in AAA.

Given what we saw from Indians’ 3B in 2010, it has been (correctly) asserted that the Indians should be looking after a 3B capable of settling their infield defense and the name on the FA market that continually comes up is...no, not Adrian Beltre...one Brandon Inge. Truth be told, the pickings are very slim among FA 3B and maybe you’re in the “Brandon Inge would be a great fit”camp, but realize that Inge’s offense from last year was not that far above what Jayson Nix put forth in Cleveland:
Inge 2010
.247 BA / .321 OBP / .397 SLG / .718 OPS in 580 PA

Nix 2010 (with Cleveland)
.234 BA / .283 OBP / .422 SLG / .705 OPS in 306 PA
I know...I know, defense is the thing and I’ve been the one touting that, but Inge is probably going to sign with Tigers for too many years and for too much money, based on his age and his production and for the Indians to lure Inge away from Detroit (which probably isn’t a great idea anyways) is going to involve multiple years and too much money for a 3B in his 30's fresh off a .718 OPS season. Yes, his defense is fantastic, but not for the years and the money that would predicate that defense arriving on the North Coast.

Looking at the list of what could be available, if defense is the focus (and it should be), guys like Edwin Encarnacion (who will possibly be non-tendered) need not apply, which brings us to an intriguing name to watch as other teams decide who they non-tender. The name is a familiar one as it belongs to former Tribe 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, who could get non-tendered by Oakland, making him available on the FA market.

If K2 is, in fact, non-tendered, by the Athletics, the Indians should attempt to add him to the mix as he’s a solid, if unspectacular defensive 3B (who has never played a defensive position other than 3B...unlike one Jayson Nix), who would be a RH addition to a LH-heavy lineup. He earned $3.1M last year in Oakland and while his offensive numbers were far from good (.247 BA / .283 OBP / .396 SLG / .679 OPS), he wouldn’t be too expensive, nor would it take a multi-year deal to lock him up and to add his glove to the defensive infield. If the A’s tender Kouzmanoff, the Indians will have to go in another direction (which could involve attempting to acquire Kouzmanoff) and that idea that they could replicate the approach that they used in 2003 – sign a bunch of older guys who are still looking for their first MLB opportunity to battle with Nix to see if a Casey Blake can emerge – could be the path of least resistance, mainly because the other MLB options aren’t really all that compelling.

As AC says in his “Inbox”, Joe Crede could also be had, but that would be the same Crede that didn’t play in 2010, so none of these alternatives come without red flags or major issues. If you want to extend the interest out to the likes of Miggy Tejada and Mel Mora, that’s fine, but defensive liabilities like Edwin Encarnacion and Jorge Cantu shouldn’t be considered, nor should Felipe Lopez who the Cardinals were so eager to get out of their clubhouse. You could make a case for a failed prospect like Andy LaRoche benefiting from a change in scenery, but improving the infield defense should be the primary objective here.

Since I’m not too keen on delving into the black hole that I see in attempting to parse through defensive metrics (as they contradict each other and I’m not smart enough to tell you what metric is the definitive one to look at), the Indians should simply be looking for a place-holder that plays good defense. I know that the approach to simply find a place-holder is not going to sell more tickets, but unless you see that one special player on the FA market that I do not, I think that the glove-first 3B is the way to go until The Chiz is ready.

Of course, the Indians have internal options in Nix and Phelps, but I’m more inclined to let Nix evolve into the super-utility role in which he is most valuable and allow Phelps some time at 3B in AAA before handing the keys over to him. As I’ve said before, I’m not including Jared Goedert in this “internal options” list as his main liability (defense) is what the Indians are looking to improve.

If The Chiz is truly waiting in the wings, then the Indians should not over-commit to any one player and look for that place-holder and, among the many unappealing options, the Indians should go after a guy like Kouzmanoff (assuming availability), relegate Nix to the super-utility role and wait for The Chiz to arrive to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario (hopefully by mid-season) to theoretically settle what has been an unsettled position.

Pitching Tiers...or Tears
If adding a 3B to the mix is viewed as a necessity, inserting another arm into the rotation could perhaps be viewed as a luxury. That is said not because an arm is not needed, but rather because of what “another arm” that would be an upgrade over the current rotation is going to cost and whether spending that kind of money is what this team should be doing NOW, at this stage of the “cycle”.

To wit, Fangraphs (who actually provided an article worthy of mention here) conducted an exercise called “Crowdsourcing” for Carl Pavano, attempting to predict what Hot Carl would receive on the open market as a Free Agent. The result of the Pavano Crowdsourcing was a 2-to-3 year deal at about $9M to $10M per year...um, so there’s that.

Anybody want to commit those years and that type of money to an arm like Hot Carl Pavano, given where the Indians currently stand as an organization?

As much as I want to believe that it isn’t the case, as I said earlier, this team isn’t one pitcher away from obviously contending...they’re a couple of position players rebounding from major injury and a few pitchers continuing their maturation away from legitimately looking like a contender for 2011. Maybe that happens in 2011 and the Indians look at add an arm as the season progresses, but throwing money and years at marginal-to-good starting pitchers shouldn’t interest the Indians this off-season.

For one, you have to remember how expensive even marginal starting pitching is on the FA market. On top of that, as much as 2010 gave us a glimpse at what COULD be with some of the starters, they are far from known quantities and adding a top-shelf veteran arm makes the rotation deeper and stronger, but to what end?

Yes, perhaps Jake Westbrook comes back to take care of “unfinished business” in Cleveland after “earning” $33M from the Tribe over the last 3 years and, if he does so for less money...well, then he’s my favorite Indian ever. The reality of the Westbrook situation is that Jake posted a 3.38 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP after going to St. Louis and some NL team (maybe St. Louis) is going to give Jake more than a couple of years on a deal for money that will probably be closer to $10M than it will be to $5M per year. Should the Indians be in on that?

As I said, maybe Jake defies the logic of all professional sports and returns to Cleveland for fewer years and less money because of what happened in the last three years, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Outside of Pavano and Westbrook, the FA pitcher that interests me is Hiroki Kuroda...but again, it comes back to how expensive starting pitching is on the FA market, particularly for players that thrived in 2010, as Pavano, Westbrook, and Kuroda (3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 2010 with the Dodgers) did.

So if the Indians aren’t going to be willing to offer multiple years to second-tier guys like Pavano, Westbrook, and Kuroda (and perhaps rightfully so), they move onto the third-tier of FA pitcher – the scratch and dent section. Included in this tier are the likes of Bruce Chen, Brandon Webb, Javier Vazquez, Chris Young, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, all of whom come with injury or performance concerns and all who are likely to be available on a shorter, incentive-laden deal...but with good reason.

The Indians can mine this group to see if they can find another diamond in the rough, like they did with Kevin Millwood – who is also available and may be able to impart on the current young staff the same “lessons” that he did on a young staff back in 2005 – and later with Carl Pavano. Who among that group of Webb, Sheets, Bonderman, etc. fits that profile is above my pay grade, and the Indians’ track record of picking the guy about to rebound has earned them the benefit of the doubt in this department.

However, it is important to allow past to be our prologue as it has been noted that the 2010 season and the 2003 season could be similar in terms of placement on the developmental cycle of the team being built up. That being said, let’s all remember that the additions made to a young starting rotation in the off-season between the 2003 and 2004 seasons were...wait for it...Jeff D’Amico and Jeriome Robertson

D’Amico was an instance of dumpster diving, but the ill-fated acquistion of Robertson is perhaps an interesting precedent. As bad as the Robertson deal looks in hindsight (the Indians gave up Luke Scott for Robertson, who would throw all of 14 1/3 innings for them in 2004 and never make it back to MLB), perhaps the 2010 fill their rotational need by exploring a trade for a starting pitcher.

The instant corollary to that would be who the Indians would have to offer in a trade in as much as we’d all like to say, “go out and get a young starter” on the Trade Market like Jair Juerrjens (who one AJC columnist thinks should be moved), the question becomes which players on the Indians are that compelling to make and whether trading our young players is, again, what the Indians should be doing now. If it takes trading guys like Kipnis or Chisenhall, I don’t think that they make that move, unless a team is high on a Tribe prospect whose place in the future lineup or staff isn’t obvious.

If we’re talking trade, the likely avenue would be to buy low on a guy like Zach Duke (if the infield defense is truly going to be improved) or someone of his ilk, with the Indians asking Neal Huntington which of the failed Indians’ prospects he would like in the Steel City and taking on Duke in exchange in the hopes that some semblance of an MLB pitcher still resides in his body or that a change of scenery would benefit him. Similarly, always-suggestive reader John Mast floated the name of Homer Bailey out there as a player who could also benefit from a change of scenery.

Regardless of how they add an arm, I have the feeling that an arm will be added…and maybe even two. Those arms, however, will come either with major recent injury and the risk that comes with it (Webb, Sheets, etc.), major recent performance issues (Duke, Brian Bannister, etc.) or with the obvious warts that accompany forays into the lower tiers of available starting pitching. To me, I think that you go out and buy a lottery ticket like Webb in the hopes that he can re-gain his stature with the Tribe (who have a history of being the springboard for players looking to increase value) and go out and get another arm from another organization, like Duke, to lengthen out the starting rotation and to allow Tomlin and Gomez start the season in AAA, if only until the newly acquired arms reveal themselves.

Mighty Righty
Going back to the position player side of things, an obvious need of the team (past 3B) is to add a RH bat that factors into the OF/DH/1B mix as Travis Hafner’s shoulder is likely to prevent him from playing every day in 2011 and his disparate splits from 2010 (.863 vs. RHP, .706 vs. LHP) necessitate the Indians bringing someone in to take some AB away from him, particularly when facing LHP. Additionally, given that the three presumed OF for 2010 are all LH, the ability of that RH bat to play OF would assist in filling a couple of holes all at once.

While that wish for a RH bat that plays the OF may be the ideal set up, I’ll bang the drum again for a player like Mike Napoli (although he doesn’t play the OF, obviously), as his name the one that keeps jumping out to me. Of course, he would need to be traded for and will earn some cash because of arbitration, but Napoli could probably be had from the Angels and he posted a .966 OPS vs. LHP in 2010. On a team that is largely LH, Napoli could prove his mettle by being a big RH bat against LHP and could ostensibly operate in a 3-way platoon at C, 1B, and DH with the various incarnations looking like this:
Against RHP
DH – Hafner
C – Santana
1B – LaPorta

Against LHP
DH – Santana/LaPorta
C – Napoli
1B – LaPorta/Santana

If they followed through with that, it gives Santana a bit of a break from behind the plate, although it does leave Lou Marson out of the equation. While leaving Marson out of the equation may be just fine for some, realize that Marson had a .759 OPS vs. LHP in 2010 and, while that pales in comparison to what Napoli puts up against LHP, maybe the Indians use a similar utilization against RHP and LHP, with internal options, looking something like this:
Against RHP
DH – Hafner
C – Santana
1B – LaPorta

Against LHP
DH – Santana/LaPorta
C – Marson
1B – LaPorta/Santana

If that becomes the arrangement (though it wouldn’t necessarily be hard and fast as Marson and Hafner probably wouldn’t be in a straight platoon), it would give Hafner some days off WHILE allowing Santana to come out from behind the plate every once in a while to limit the wear and tear on his body. If that is the case, the question becomes how the Indians still add that RH bat, with the focus moving almost completely to the OF. Perusing through the list of potential FA, playoff hero Cody Ross would be an option (.883 OPS vs. LHP in 2010), as would Matt Diaz (.830 OPS vs. LHP in 2010) and while neither of those players is going to set the world afire, each can play a competent OF and provide some security against Sizemore not being able to play every day or right out of the chute. Truthfully, we’re talking about upgrading Trevor Crowe’s spot here and...those are not the biggest shoes to fill.

Of course, they could stick with Shelley Duncan (.857 OPS vs. LHP) in the role that he played to some critical acclaim but, as I said, they really could be looking to replace Crowe with a RH bat that could provide some pop against LHP. If they’re simply replacing Crowe, they keep Duncan around and add a player like Ross or Diaz to be a legitimate RH OF (sorry, Duncan’s not a legit OF...as hard as he may try) and give the lineup multiple looks with Marson, Duncan, Ross/Diaz, and Nix all coming off of the bench as RH options.

Given Ross’ recent playoff heroics and the unnecessary cost that may accompany his newfound stature, the choice here would be Matt Diaz, who can play all 3 OF positions and is RH so he can sub for any and all of the LH OF and can spell Hafner, when needed, as the DH or allow one of the OF to slide over to DH when Hafner needs a break.

Stabilizing the Back-End
While 3B, the rotation, and a RH bat have been well-publicized “needs” of the team, the final one that I see to be just as glaring involves adding an experienced RHP to the back-end of the bullpen. Though the Indians are touting the performance of the bullpen in the second half, let’s realize that the RHP that figure into the 2011 bullpen past Chris F. Perez are Joe Smith, Jensen Lewis, Justin Germano and a bunch of promising AAA pitchers, like Vinnie Pestano and Zach Putnam.

Do you really feel comfortable that one of those guys can assume that 7th or 8th inning RH role for 2011?

Maybe this is from the experience of watching the bullpen deep-six the 2006 and 2008 seasons (among other reasons), but I don’t and I think that a priority this off-season would be to add a RH reliever to the late-inning mix to assist Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp in serving as the bridge from the 6th to the 9th innings, when necessary. However, dealing in the FA market for relievers is a dicey proposition because of the Elias Rankings of Type A and Type B players and the fact that signing a Type A player means that the Indians would have to give up their 2nd Round Pick in next year’s draft (our 1st Round Pick would be protected because it is top 15) to sign a reliever that would ostensibly be a set-up man. Maybe you think that a set-up man is that important, but seeing as how Jason Kipnis was the 2nd Round Pick in 2009, I’m staying away from the Type A Free Agent relievers.

For a quick look at Type A and Type B Free Agents, here’s the exhaustive list and just parsing through the relievers, you can quickly scratch off your Type A Free Agents, which would be Rafael Soriano, Mariano Rivera, Matt Thornton, Matt Guerrier, Scott Downs, Dan Wheeler, Jason Frasor, Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco, Arthur Rhodes, and Takishi Saito.

Sure, Matt Guerrier or Scott Downs would look great in that 8th inning role, but the crazy Elias rankings and the cost of a top draft pick would preclude much interest for me in those players as Type A FA. Much more interesting is the list of Type B Free Agents, whose signing would not result in the Indians giving up a draft pick for 2011. That Type B List is as follows, in terms of Relief Pitchers that are RH, with each player’s ERA+ for 2010 indicated after the name:
Joaquin Benoit – 295 ERA+
JJ Putz – 154 ERA+
Koji Uehara – 149 ERA+
Trevor Hoffman – 141 ERA+
Jesse Crain – 137 ERA+
Jon Rauch – 134 ERA+
Kerry Wood – 133 ERA+
Kevin Gregg – 119 ERA+
Chad Durbin – 106 ERA+
Octavio Dotel – 101 ERA+
Randy Choate – 94 ERA+
Aaron Heilman – 94 ERA+
Chad Qualls – 57 ERA+

A couple of those guys are going to be signed to closer money next year with the idea that they will be closing – I’d put Benoit, Putz, Rauch, Gregg, and probably Wood on that list – meaning that you’re talking about guys like Jesse Crain and Chad Durbin who might be on the Indians’ radar. If the Indians could pull off a guy like Benoit or even Kevin Gregg (who saved 37 games last year in Toronto) to further solidify the back-end of the bullpen, I’m all for it. But my guess is that some team (or teams) is going to look at Benoit, Putz, Rauch, Gregg, and (again) probably Wood as legitimate closing options and offer them more years and money than the Indians should be looking to commit for a set-up guy.

If you’re asking me to put one name out there, I’d say Jesse Crain in that he would strengthen the back end of that bullpen with a legitimate RH option to slot in front of Perez. Adding a Jesse Crain suddenly gives the 7th and 8th innings a more fleshed out feel with Crain, R. Perez, and Sipp serving as the set-up men, allowing the likes of Joe Smith, Jenny Lewis, Justin Germano and the gaggle of MiLB arms to sort themselves out and force themselves into that late-inning mix instead of simply being handed the keys to the 7th or 8th innings.

Pulling it All Together
In sum, what are we looking at here?
Other than the internal machinations of arbitration and 40-man housecleaning, I’d like to see the Indians add Kouzmanoff, an injury reclamation project like Brandon Webb, a performance reclamation project like Zach Duke, a RH OF like Matt Diaz, and a RH set-up man like Jesse Crain. While I’m not smart enough to know what the FA market or the trade market will dictate in terms of acquiring those players, it would seem that the Indians should be able to add those ancillary pieces and parts (without breaking the bank) so you go into the 2011 season looking something like this:
C – Santana
1B – LaPorta
2B – Donald
SS – Cabrera
3B – Kouzmanoff
RF – Choo
CF – Brantley
LF – Sizemore
DH – Hafner

Bench – Marson
Bench – Nix
Bench – Diaz
Bench – Duncan

SP – Carmona
SP – Masterson
SP – Carrasco
SP – Duke and, later, Webb
SP – Talbot

Closer – C. Perez
RP – Crain
RP – R. Perez
RP – Sipp
RP – Smith
RP – Lewis
RP – Germano/Laffey/name a MiLB reliever

You may look at that and say that the roster is not all that dissimilar from the 2010 roster and wonder what improvement would be expected by simply adding those auxiliary pieces like Kouzmanoff or Diaz or Crain, but let’s be honest about – this in that the major improvement that the Indians have to see is not from pieces they add from the FA market or through minor trades, but from the development of their own players.

The recoveries of Sizemore and Santana and the improvement from guys like LaPorta, Brantley, Masterson, and Carrasco are MUCH more important to the long-term health of the team than adding one or two players from outside the organization. Thus, you pick and choose where you add those players and how you add them in an effort to augment what will hopefully be the burgeoning “core” of players already in place.

At first glance, this off-season list doesn’t look like a blueprint necessarily for instant success, but the Indians shouldn’t necessarily be looking for instant success (as much as it pains me to acknowledge that) and should be looking to continue building the foundation for something more special than simply a .500 season and a shot at the AL Central. If recent history has shown us anything, the ability to compete with the elite of the AL is what the Indians should be looking towards and adding a piece or two to the current group of players doesn’t accomplish that.

That may not be the popular approach, given where the Indians currently sit in terms of attendance and PR, but the “popular” approach doesn’t always mean the same thing as the “prudent” approach and the “prudent” approach for the Indians should be the continued development of their internal talent and augmenting that talent in specific places while not deluding themselves to go further than they should in terms of adding talent from the outside.

Some day soon (hopefully), the Indians should be active in attempting to add that one piece to flesh out a roster that looks to be on the cusp of being special…that day just hasn’t arrived yet for these Indians.

Untime-Lee

Realizing that the events of this post-season continue to be agonizingly painful for Tribe fans, in light of what has transpired from this time in 2007 to now, what happened on Tuesday night forces us all to re-visit what is, what has happened, and what could have been, particularly in terms of Cliff Lee's playoff performance the last three times his teams made the playoffs...
Cliff Lee
2010 Postseason - 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 21 K, 0 BB in 16 IP (2 victories)


Cliff Lee
2009 Postseason - 1.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 33 K, 6 BB in 40 1/3 IP (4 victories)


Cliff Lee
2007 Postseason - Did not participate, left off of post-season roster


Do not take this as a cry that Lee deserved on the 2007 post-season roster, but rather that the timing of "Cliff Lee: middle-of-the-rotation-starter" turning into "Clifton Phifer Lee - absolute stud and playoff hero" didn't exactly jibe with when the Indians could have used said "absolute stud and playoff hero".

Such is baseball...particularly in Cleveland as of late.

A Lazy Sunday with Lacoste Nostra

As another gorgeous Fall weekend is upon us on the North Coast, and with the requisite trip to the apple orchard completed yesterday with the boys (and a day at the Zoo in front of us), let’s wade back into the Indians’ season, now done for nearly a full week. While you can’t help but see former Indians on the TV these days in the playoffs (and at whose feet does the blame of having guys like CC, Lee, Pavano, and Wood…just to name a few, fall in that the Indians were unable to compete WITH those guys on the roster in the past two years), the MLB playoffs for me are fun to watch, if depressing.

The fun comes, obviously from watching baseball being played well, with tremendous starting pitching and with the pressure of postseason baseball being palpable, almost on every pitch. Unfortunately, the competitive balance of the league has devolved to the point that, as Cleveland Frowns puts it in his (albeit late) playoff preview, “the playoffs are for the big boys…the ones with $100,000,000 more to spend on world class baseball players than you have.”

Interestingly, the Phillies seem to have realized that they play in the 3rd largest Metropolis area with just one team and the Rangers (and their new owners) have awoken to the fact that they play in the 2nd largest Metropolis area with just one team (that team in New England is 1st, in case you were wondering); so it would seem as if MLB has some new “big boys” at the table as the disparity between the teams with the financial wherewithal (or a healthy and steady revenue stream that a large market can bring in TV revenue, like this deal) grows as the big-market teams continue to figure out how to use their built-in financial advantages…you know, to their advantage in the final standings.

All of which brings us to the topic of the day as the Indians, find themselves with a “new” structure in their Front Office with Mark Shapiro moving into the role of President (where he is suddenly the MORE compelling character in all of this because of his new role as keeper of the purse strings and because his job is to figure out a way to compete with – or at least live in the same zip code – as the aforementioned “big boys) and Chris Antonetti moving up to the position of General Manager.

This “announcement” of the GM baton passing from Mark Shapiro to Chris Antonetti has been one of the worst-kept “secrets” in Cleveland (worse that LeBron’s tipping), dating back to when the Cardinals courted Antonetti, who “re-worked” his contract, never officially saying that the “re-work” included this ascension to the GM spot. Thus, since very little else is happening on The Reservation (unless you want to delve into the “season in reviews” from the beat writers…and I don’t), we’ll keep the focus today on the new “Don” in the “Polo Shirt Mafia” at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

If you’re confused by the language of that last sentence, the term of the Polo Shirt Mafia gained traction when Antonetti (and others) started giving interviews and as his picture (along with others) started to appear in the paper and online. As Antonetti (and others) matched Shapiro in dialect, diction, body language, and linguistic filler, even succeeding in evasiveness while answering and specializing in an ability to use many words while actually SAYING very little, it became obvious that this group of executives were all cut from the same cloth.

To that end, in terms of their wardrobe choices, it seemed that they were actually “cut from the same cloth” as all were nearly always pictured donning Polo Shirts and Khakis. While I’ll be the first to admit that I have, from time to time, worn the same garb, the “business casual”-ness of it all was hard to ignore. They ran in groups, spoke the same language (even if it was decipherable to only a few), and always wore something with a collar and usually a crest.

Along the shores of Lake Erie, the Polo Shirt Mafia, or as it later became known in a brilliant off-shoot Lacoste Nostra (coined by Anthony from Willoughby…currently watching baseball in Cincinnati), ruled with Shapiro leading the Family and Antonetti learning the trade at Shapiro’s right hand. Now, Shapiro has stepped aside (or up, depending upon how you want to see it) and the Indians are left with the hand-picked “co-GM” of Shapiro and, as I said before, this was hardly a surprise.

In fact, the title transfer was made official back in February and was hit on in this very space at length. Going back and looking at that piece again, I’ll stand by what I wrote back then (as little has changed) with the high points (relatively speaking) coming in the timing of the change, in terms of Shapiro stepping aside with the tear-down pretty much complete:
Shapiro could have insisting on sticking around until after the 2011 or the 2012 season, when the prospects of the team competing look to be brighter or when he could hand the reins off to Antonetti, with the team contending or at least closer to contention. Instead, the transition will come about half of a season after the second rebuild/reload/whatever began in earnest, with Antonetti coming in more or less after Shapiro will have been the point man on most unpopular decisions.
--snip--
Now, realize that Shapiro will still be the GM (again, at least in terms of public perception) when…not if, when the Indians trade (or at least attempt to trade) Westbrook, Wood, Peralta, and maybe even Branyan this coming season. By the time that Antonetti will assume the GM reins, all of the dirty work will have been done in the rebuild, with the roster purged and the contract situations of Lee, Victor, Wood, Westbrook, and Peralta in the rearview mirror…all completed in the “Shapiro regime”.

Remember, that was written back in February…but that was pretty much the script for the season, was it not?

Going further from the old piece (and I don’t mean to just re-use this stuff, but it is wildly relevant again), the question of whether Antonetti was merely a Shapiro clone was examined:
If you’ll remember, Shapiro was (a long time ago) the protégé of John Hart and Hart’s hand-picked successor, and while there is a difference here as Shapiro will stay in the organization (which Hart did not), time will tell what kind of GM Antonetti will be.

That is to say, as much as these guys sound like they could finish the trains of thought for one another, much less sentences, anyone who has ever worked in a business realizes that even the closest of allies do not see eye-to-eye on EVERY single issue. When a decision has been made, as much back-room complaining can be done about it, a good business (or organization) has the soldiers fall in line, toe that company line and articulate it clearly, as if they believe every bit of it.

While Shapiro and Antonetti always seem to be reading from the same script, the truth (with any situation involving human beings) is that if you’re not in charge, you generally have your own ideas about doing things. That doesn’t mean that Antonetti is going to stray wildly from what is already in place with the Indians’ organization (as he had a hand in building the structure), but does anyone truly believe that this is simply an extension of Shapiro’s reign, with Antonetti playing the role of marionette and Shapiro pulling the strings from a higher office?

Perhaps the most cynical and pessimistic among us believe that, but I’m more inclined to see how Antonetti acts as a GM and HOW he arrives to those actions as well as WHY he ends up there. Perhaps it will reveal itself to be a continuation of Shapiro’s beliefs and maneuverings, but seeing as how Antonetti is, in fact, a different person (though it is difficult to discern between the two at times), I’ll see what he brings to the table and decide from those actions and not simply from what everyone “thinks” will happen.

By the way, just to jump back to the February piece, please note that I did nail the Mike Chernoff promotion (exciting for everyone…I know) to his new position:
As for a best guess as to who plays the role of Assistant GM (formerly occupied, to some critical acclaim, by Antonetti) in the new arrangement, a name to remember would be Mike Chernoff, the current Director of Baseball Operations.

Additionally, I will point out (as I did in February) that Chernoff was listed #6 on a list of potential future GM’s that Will Carroll put together back in June of 2008.

But back to Antonetti and wondering what, exactly, the Indians are getting as a GM, what I wonder about (not that I’ll ever get this answer) is what moves of the past 5 years were the ones that Antonetti was the dissenting voice in the room…again, assuming that the Front Office isn’t so completely on the same page that they agree about everything. For whatever reason, I remember the story told about Mark Shapiro (then Farm Director) banging his fist against the table, protesting the Brian Giles-for-Ricky Rincon deal and (again, while this would NEVER become public knowledge, given the CIA-level of secrecy of the Indians) I wonder at which points Antonetti reluctantly went along with a decision, or saw a move happen that he wasn’t all too fond of.

While one would hope that this kind of insight could have been gleaned by the current beat writers (and I don’t count Castrovince as one of these anymore, given his promotion at MLB.com…so, read him here now), nearly every interview is so narrow-minded in terms of asking specifically about the team as it exists right now, instead of where the team has been and where it SHOULD be going. If you haven’t been reading the sit-downs with Antonetti recently, you haven’t missed much:
Beat Writer - “So…um, what are you going to do at 3B?”
Antonetti - “We’re going to look for a 3B, probably one who is a good defender.”

Beat Writer - “What are you going to do with Choo?”
Antonetti - “We’re going to approach him about a multi-year deal and, if that doesn’t happen, we’ll sign him to a one-year deal.”

Seriously, at a certain point, I could create a faux Q & A anticipating the mind-numbing questions from the local media and the evasive, non-committal answers from the Front Office that has taken place for far too long, with the enlightened opinions of Castrovince no longer at our disposal to wade through the muck. After reading everything about Antonetti in the last week, I actually think that I know less about him or what he’s going to do and, while some of that is by design, all of this brings us to the entrée of today’s brunch.

In case nobody remembers (and this feels like much longer ago than it really is), before the 2009 season, I contributed on an Indians’ Preview book with some of the guys at LGT, as well as some other terrific writers…including Joe Posnanski. Regardless, one of the meatiest pieces in the Indians Annual 2009 (or IA2K9, as it was lovingly called) was an extended interview that Jay Levin of Let’s Go Tribe conducted with then-Assistant GM Chris Antonetti.

Given the recent events regarding Antonetti’s promotion, Jay convinced the publisher, Maple Street Press, to make the story available online for reading. In the article, you will find the most insight that you likely ever will read into the inner workings of the Indians’ Front Office and their decision-making process. Despite the fact that, as Jay says in the opener, “the Indians are notoriously tightlipped about the proprietary statistics they’ve developed to evaluate hitting, defense, and pitching” but continues that the team “emphasizes strong, candid communication, and Antonetti seemed to be fighting his own natural cordiality in order to protect the team’s trade secrets”, the interview is insightful and probing.

Although it does, at times, devolve into vagaries because Antonetti is coy about tipping his hand on much more than generalities, Levin was able to glean information from him on topics that are fascinating to examine, particularly with the benefit of hindsight…remember, these interviews too place in December of 2008 and January of 2009. Among the many topics hit on in the now-published piece were Kerry Wood and medical issues, the value of a player on the trade market versus the value to the team (in this case, with Kelly Shoppach as the example), how they approach Free Agency, and their due diligence before making a deal.

If you’re waiting for the snippets from the piece, they’re not coming as the complete interview is worth a read so again, here’s the link…I’ll wait until you finish it…

Not to simply let sleeping dogs lie, Jay posted the unpublished portions of the interview over the course of the 2009 season and just recently posted the final part of the interview that had not yet been published in any space. The topics hit in the portions of the interview that did not make IA2K9 are a fascinating look at the value of closers (made more interesting by the fact that Chris F. Perez would not become an Indian for another 6 months or so), an unbelievably insightful piece on the contract given to Travis Hafner and whether there was any buyers’ remorse that existed in the Winter of 2008 (there didn’t seem to be and sheds some light as to how the Indians approached the extension from all angles), the ongoing issue at 3B (one that remains unresolved), and finally a bit on Antonetti on a personal level (a topic he was obviously not interested in discussing or pulling back the curtain on) and on the perception that he is among the “new age” baseball executives, separate from the “old school” scouts and traditionalists.

Again, there are links embedded in each of those that will give you about 15,000 of Chris Antonetti’s words, perhaps more insightful in hindsight (when everyone’s glass was still half-full) than anything that will pass through his lips these days, which will be even more measured and evasive than that…if that is possible.

In terms of the “transition of power” to Antonetti, much has been made about the Indians essentially having everyone move up one step with Shapiro “graduating” to role of Team President. In fact, when you see it all broken down in one place (as Stephanie Storm does), it is jarring to see how the structure essentially remains the same, with new titles being the main change.

To that end, as for the rest of the Front Office promotion looking like a continuation of the status quo (when the status quo has looked woefully underprepared and unprepared in the 2008 and 2009 seasons), perhaps the rumors that former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes could be joining the Indians in a Front Office role (first reported by Ken Rosenthal) can find some favor on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, if only to bring in that “fresh set of eyes” who has been in other organizations and is not simply resigned to accept the process because “that’s how it’s done around here” and could instead bring a discerning (and perhaps dissenting) voice to an organization that could be stuck in a rut because of tunnel-vision.

If you don’t remember, back when Byrnes was fired from Arizona, I advocated a return to his “roots” back in July, in the hopes that he would return (yes, return…and you should read this) to the Tribe Front Office. If you want a prudent use of money this off-season, use it to acquire a talented executive who will question why the Indians do what they do and provide some fresh perspective (or at least an outside perspective) on the road they’ve already laid out in front of them for the past 2 ½ years.

If Josh Byrnes does make his way to Cleveland, would his relationship with Brandon Webb put the Indians in the running for a rehabbing Webb, who is probably going to receive a contract that would be “very heavy on incentives and very light on guaranteed money”?

Nobody knows, but it gets back to the question of what can really be expected from Antonetti this off-season. That’s hard to say as their “shopping list” (SP, 3B, RH bat, 4th OF, RH reliever) is pretty well known…assuming that is their “shopping list”. Again, most of the “dirty work” (clearing off contracts, unpopular trades) has already occurred and if, as it has been stated, Antonetti’s fingerprints can be found on specific deals, starting with the Cliff Lee deal, it bears mentioning again what they have targeted since July of 2009 – big, strong pitchers who have the potential to miss bats.
Take a look at the list of acquired arms, just from the CP Lee and Victor deals:
Masterson – 6’6”, 250 lbs.
Carrasco – 6’3”, 220 lbs.
Knapp – 6’5’, 235 lbs.
Hagadone – 6’5”, 230 lbs.
Price – 6’4”, 210 lbs.

You can mention the likes of Corey Kluber, Zach McCallister, Scott Barnes, Connor Graham and others, but those names listed above (with heights and weights…ding) get to the point as to what the Indians are attempting to do with these arms. Given the astonishing attrition rate and injury rate for pitchers, the Indians have been targeting high-upside arms, capable of being dominant starters (assuming health and projection) or, at worst, relievers at the Big League level. Throw guys like White, Gardner, and Pomeranz on this list if you’d like, but the Indians (after years of going for the “polished” product or the player “close to contributing”) have gone after the potential difference makers in terms of pitchers.

Whether or not those arms pan out remains to be seen, but as we’re seeing this off-season, the importance of pitching, and more importantly DOMINANT starting pitching, rules the day in the post-season. From Halladay to Hamels to Lincecum to Cain to Hughes to…yes, even Sabathia and Lee, the team with the better starting pitchers (and the bigger studs at the front end of their rotation) are generally going to have an advantage in the playoffs.

Don’t think that the reason for the success of the 2007 team (CC and Fausto at the top end) was lost on the Front Office and, while it could be said that every team is attempting to find those front-of-the-rotation studs, the moves that the Indians have made since the Lee deal show that they have some concrete plans to resort back to that reliance on superb starting pitching.

If you don’t think that the Indians had that stable in place (albeit with poor timing) in the mid-to-late-90s, consider what SI.com’s Jon Heymann wrote about CP Lee’s off-season value rising because of his postseason performance, with that value reaching some dizzying heights:
Before Halladay took a $60-million, three-year extension with Philly, Lee turned down a similar offer, believed to be for three years and somewhere in the mid-$50-millions from Philadelphia, who eventually traded him to Seattle. Word was, he was thinking about more than double that, maybe something close to Johan Santana’s $138-million, six-year Mets contract.

Now, word going around the game is that Lee might seek three times what Philly offered. In other words, Lee might try to match his old Indians teammate CC Sabathia’s deal, which is for seven years and $161 million. “Why not?” one club executive said. “He’s as good as Sabathia.”

Look at that second quoted paragraph again and realize that, when we enter the 2011 season, the two biggest contracts ever handed out to starting pitchers in baseball history may come in the course of two off-seasons for players that made their MLB debuts with the Tribe and who were teammates for four full seasons (2004 to 2007) and who resided in the 2008 rotation together for a team that was 37-51 when CC was dealt.

There’s plenty of blame to go around in those circular arguments (and I’ve laid more that my share of blame here), but the Indians (as they were constructed from 2003 to 2009) were designed to be reliant on strong starting pitching (CC, Lee, Carmona, Westbrook, etc.) and the blueprint doesn’t seem to be all that different now.

Granted, there’s no way to know now how all of these arms shake out, but the Indians have started to stockpile young, big, swing-and-miss pitchers (some from Brad Grant’s drafts, that have looked to potentially bear some immediate fruit) and how those arms project to MLB is going to determine where the Indians go, just as the maturation of those young, undeveloped arms in the early-to-mid-2000s dictated the franchise’s trajectory.

If the Indians get production from Carrasco (or even Masterson) and the likes of White, Pomeranz, and Knapp develop in a manner in which the Indians hope, the Indians will find themselves in a position rivaling (and probably exceeding, because of the positional talent) where they were only five years ago, when their potential seemed limitless.

However, if that situation were to play out, which GM takes the “credit/blame” for that as most of the names listed above were technically acquired under Shapiro’s watch. Regardless of whether Antonetti played a major role in that decision, those players will be identified as “Shapiro’s guys”, just as the drafting of CC coming under John Hart’s watch remains another blemish on the draft record of Shapiro’s tenure.

To that end, it gets to what Chris Antonetti should be doing this off-season, in that he should be looking to not simply continue the status quo for the sake of status quo. He should be attempting to separate himself from Shapiro, if at all possible, to debunk the notion that he is simply “Shapiro, Jr.” or is in his new office to continue to do Shapiro’s bidding. While I’m not suggesting that Antonetti should suddenly start exploring how to get Jeff Francouer on the roster or see if Oliver Perez can be had (as I’m not suggesting stupidity for stupidity’s sake), he’s coming into a situation that he can put his stamp on over the course of the next couple of years. His ability (or inability) to do so will go a long way towards coloring public perception of him (fair or not) and whether he is simply an extension of the status quo in the name of stability or if he brings a different opinion and approach to the position…his own.

Lessons Learned

The 2010 season is officially in the books and while the MLB playoffs will roll on for the next month or so, the eulogies, obituaries, and post-mortems have been rolling in front of our eyes for the better part of a couple of days. While The DiaBride will be happy to catch her “Glee” and “Private Practice” on the nights that they actually air (instead of sitting through a Tribe game, then catching up on the DVR when possible), the end of the season means that most Tribe fans move on to a period in which we miss the pattern of baseball, the regularity of it, and the promise that each game provides. Nevertheless, an off-season awaits (along with my plan to re-watch “The Civil War”...obviously unbeknownst to The DiaBride), and before we tackle all of the issues facing the Tribe, perhaps it would be better to tie up the season in a nice tidy package. Since the highs and the lows, the hits and the misses have been discussed (with an absurd number of words) in this space, I’m going to hold off on doing any full-blown season recaps because…well, if you’ve been paying attention, you know what happened.

That being said, much transpired over the course of the last six months (as it often does) and while it does provide some levity to go back to see what was written in anticipation of the season (and here’s mine, which I am oddly proud of), the more important things to take from the season come in the learned lessons, the questions that remain, and what answers lie out there in the darkness of the off-season.

Thus, without going too deeply (relatively speaking) into stats or “what’s coming next” (as there is plenty of time for that), let’s realize that 2010 has shed some light on particular corners of the organization. While others remain shadowy (at best) going forward, questions were answered and while other answers remain out there in space, let’s take a moment to recap what we learned, what we didn’t, and (for another day and another couple thousand words) what may be coming…

What We Learned
First and foremost, we learned that SS Choo is a tremendous player who has provided stability in the ocean of uncertainty that has surrounded this team for the last two years. Looking back at The BLC and where he came from (and I don’t just mean from Seattle for Broussard), does anyone remember when Choo returned from TJ surgery back in 2008 and was out of options and there was some thought that he would a platoon option for Frank the Tank, who was struggling mightily?

In that 2008 season, he did bounce around the OF with Gutierrez and Francisco, for the remainder of the year, the trio flanked around Sizemore in the hopes that the Indians could finally find a suitable corner OF for the future incarnation of the Tribe. Well...Since he’s returned from injury in 2008, Choo has posted an OPS of .897 since his return in 2008 and his OPS+ of 144 in that timeframe ranks as the 9th highest mark in MLB over that 3-year stretch, ahead of Holliday, Morneau, and Teixeira, among others whom he’s outpaced…no, seriously.
Click on the link...do it.

Interestingly, his terrific season has given an opening for this groundswell that Choo “needs to be signed right away” sports-talk radio mantra, which is wildly misleading for those who hear or read only headlines and see Choo as the next Indian who will make his way out of Cleveland. While that perception may be ultimately true, what it fails to take into consideration is that, you know... he’s under club control THROUGH THE 2013 SEASON!

So yes, he needs to be signed in his first year of arbitration eligibility to avoid the arbitration process (which can turn ugly) and the Indians can approach he and his agent about giving up some of his Free Agency years, but the first of those FA years comes four full seasons from now. If there were any indication that Indians’ fans have grown a little paranoid on this whole “players leaving” thing, here it is as most of the city acts as if Choo’s time in Cleveland is about to expire when he is, in fact, under club control longer than Travis Hafner...seriously. So as much as everyone moans that the team is “stuck with Hafner for two more years”, realize that they control Choo for one more year past that.

For now, let’s appreciate Choo and know that he’s going to get paid handsomely (and rightfully so) for the next three years, whether the contracts come as three one-year deals or as a three-year deal or even as the first three years of a multi-year deal that buys out some FA year. While that last scenario is unlikely, the first and second still keep him here until he’s 31 years old, which does not present such a bad scenario going forward.

As for the player that looks most obviously to be Choo’s running mate in the middle of the lineup, Carlos Santana showed why he is one of the top prospects in the game as he put an OPS+ higher than the Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez did and, while it was admittedly in 1/3 of the plate appearances, he did it from behind the plate and not a traditional power position, like the OF. Santana’s all-too-brief time in Cleveland this year proved that he was worthy of the hype as he arrived with his bat barrel blazing and looking like he was prepared to stabilize the middle of the lineup from Day 1. While he may move him to 1B from time to time going forward (or even to DH), Santana looks like the best pure hitting rookie (in terms of readiness and immediate impact) the Indians have had since the Baby Bull burst on the scene in the early 90s.

While Santana provided some stability to the middle of the order, Chris F. Perez did what no Indians’ reliever has been able to do for the better part of the last decade as he took complete control of the 9th inning, dominating at a clip that hasn’t been seen since the halcyon days of the mid-1990s. Perez was given the opportunity to be the full-time closer after Wood was dealt and ran with it, posting the lowest ERA (0.63) in the second half of the season among all MLB pitchers with more than 20 IP after the All-Star Break. In that timeframe, Perez whiffed 32 and walked just 10 in his last 28 1/3 IP and limited opposing batters to a .445 OPS, proof to the dominance that Perez brought to the mound in the 9th. Even more compelling than that dominance was the air of invincibility that accompanied Perez as he strode out to record the final three outs as the Indians seem to have finally found that bad-ass at the back-end of the bullpen, capable of shortening the game to 8 innings for opposing teams, something that has been sorely missed for far too long.

After the three obvious bright spots (The BLC, The Axe Man, and Chris F. Perez) that provided clarity, the other rays of light come with some remaining questions as Carmona (3.77 ERA) has returned from the abyss…but to what degree not being known, and while Carrasco utilized his September opportunity (unlike last season), his ability to pitch like he did in 2010 for an extended period of time remains to be seen. The pitching staff posted a 3.89 ERA after the All-Star Break (5th best in the AL), but many members of that staff still face serious obstacles before they become definitively “known” assets.
But I’m getting ahead of myself as those questions fall into the next section…

Back to what we definitively learned, the idea was always out there that injuries can crush a season for any team, but for a team like the Indians, losing their four best position players (Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, and Santana) for extended periods of time were simply too much for the lineup to bear. If the injuries revealed anything about the team, it shone the light on the thinness of the roster as the team was forced to rely on players who were thought to either be nothing more than organizational fodder or not even on the organizations’ radar when the season started.

Through all of these injuries, we learned that this team is willing to exercise a good deal of patience with their young players. While a good deal of that “patience” came as a result of the aforementioned injures, some of it was rewarded as players (R. Perez, Masterson, and Brantley...somewhat) showed steady (or even drastic) improvement as the season progressed, while some of it looks foolish in hindsight (most notably Crowe and Valbuena...who had 310 PA, by the way) and likely represents the last bit of “patience” that some of these players are going to see at the MLB-level.

To that end, a number of players who were thought to be part of that organizational cavalry, who should have arrived back between 2006 and 2008, are ostensibly at the end of their (limited) usefulness – Marte, Crowe, Jenny Lewis, Laffey...just to name a few, and that’s not even including Aubrey, Sowers, Garko, Snyder, etc., who have already been relegated to a perpetuity of minor-league detritus.

Those “waves of arms”, much less talent?
Yeah, most never hit the shore and the ones that did make landfall will never be mistaken for whitecaps. Perhaps there are more out on the distance or closer to the shore, but that particular group of players (aged 26 to 28 or so) who have struggled to adjust to MLB seems to have hit its expiration date.

Past the injuries and the “patience”, we saw that the internal bullpen arms are starting to arrive, and while the relievers (past Perez y Perez) are still question marks, some optimism abounds that the days of Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, Oldberto Hernandez, and Danny Graves have given way to Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Frank Herrmann, and (eventually) guys like Bryce Stowell, Zach Putnam, Josh Judy, Rob Bryson, and Bryan Price. Hard-throwing, bat-missing relievers that can be plugged into the bullpen in a manner that has been the status quo in the Twin Cities but has remained elusive for the Tribe may be on its way to being remedied from within, which provides optimism on two fronts – that they’ll have an effective bullpen AND that they’ll do it with homegrown players.

Finally (and with the names of Oldberto and Graves invoked), we learned that the Indians’ use of the FA scrap heap is not as abhorrent as some make it out to be, as the team gave Minor League deals to Kearns and Duncan and saw them contributing positive attributes (Kearns OPS+ of 117, Duncan OPS+ of 106) to a team in need of some stop-gaps as injuries hit around the same time that some of the youngsters revealed themselves to be “not ready for prime-time players”. Even the much-maligned Rusty Branyan would end the 2010 campaign with 25 HR on the season, one of only 19 players to do so in the AL and while he may not have been much by way of a “scintillating” player (or even all that necessary) while in Cleveland, the Indians paid him $1.5M for 10 HR in 52 games played. Realizing that this “scrap heap” stuff is nails on a chalkboard for some, as long as the usage for those ancillary players does not take away from young players that obviously are part of the future of the team, I’m OK with these forays into the land of Kearns, Branyan, Pavano, and others as the Indians have actually shown to be surprisingly effective in finding some players on the cheap in the last two years.

What Remains a Mystery
While some questions found answers (some good, some not so good), too many remain unresolved after a full season to count 2010 as too much of a success in terms of overall development. That is to say, while Choo, Santana, and Perez look to be pillars to build upon, questions surround nearly every other position and player on this roster and deeper into the organization. While some of those questions are to be expected given the youth and inexperience on the Indians, enough intriguing mysteries remain to fill a bookshelf.

First and foremost is the multitude of questions in the rotation, as the starting pitching was a surprise, but whether it is sustainable is another story as (nearly) every pitcher in the rotation has presented reason for optimism, but a reason that comes with a caveat. Each question leads to another question with these players and this is worthy of probably a whole series of pieces, but the crux of issues for each pitcher that figures into the 2011 rotation can be quickly summarized by wondering…

Can Carmona continue to improve, armed with a new weapon in his change-up, or is his “recovery” complete and is what you see now what you get...

Was Carrasco’s September a harbinger of things to come or is it simply a mirage against post-September-call-up competition…

Did Masterson really “figure it out” as the season wore on or is the bullpen still his landing spot because of his disparate splits…

Which Mitch Talbot (still out of options) will appear in 2011, as his first 15 starts (3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) run in sharp contrast to his last 13 starts (5.23 ERA, 1.71 WHIP)…

Are Tomlin and/or Gomez viable options for the 2011 rotation or simply organizational depth/fodder for next year and beyond…

Will Dave Huff, now 26 years old with a 5.84 ERA (70 ERA+) with 208 MLB IP in 38 career starts and on the outs after an ill-timed Tweet, even be a member of the organization when 2011 starts...

How close/far away are the likes of Alex White and the rest of the recent draftees (Joe Gardner, Matt Packer, Drew Pomeranz) from legitimately being considered as even depth options…

As much as you’d like to say that a season and 162 starts (well…161 if you don’t count Germano’s start) would give a clearer idea of what the Indians have in their stable of starting pitchers and while some optimism exists for many (and not all) of these pitchers going forward, 2011 figures to be a continued look at all of these arms to glean what the team truly has in each and where each pitcher ultimately figures into the short-term and long-term future of the organization.

If the rotation looks to be wrought with questions but some possible answers, the biggest obvious “hole” on the team remains 3B, which is still a “work in progress”, to be kind. With Andy Marte likely on his way out of the organization and the underwhelming/unproven internal options of Jayson Nix and Cord Phelps (sorry, I’m not buying Jared Goedert as a legit option after his offense fell apart in the 2nd half and because of his defensive…um, “issues”) looking underwhelming and unproven, the Indians have to determine how to approach their 3B issue and weigh the importance of improving their infield defense (important) with solidifying 3B with a multi-year deal for a veteran (not important) and act accordingly this off-season.

Outside of 3B, the Indians appear to have logical options at every other position and, while uncertainty still surrounds how 2B plays out next year for some (Donald will start the season with Kipnis pushing him mid-season), 8 of the 9 positions seem to have players that are likely starters for 2011. That being said, most of those players disappointed in 2010 for various reasons and while the Indians have to wade through how to separate “development/maturation” curve from a “this is who this player is” flatline, and few of the young players are immune from having to separate themselves by excelling in 2011.

The topic has been dissected from all angles (in multiple overviews and specifically) to no end, particularly in this second half of the season. However, it is obvious that major steps need to be taken in 2010 by young offensive players – LaPorta chief among them – and while all figure to be on a long leash in 2011, this year showed that they are either young players struggling to adjust to MLB or are simply players ill-equipped to adjust to MLB. The answer may come in 2011 for some of those young players, because 2010 just cast more doubt on too many of them.

If a long leash exists for many of the young position players that struggled, the (relative) success of bullpen in the second half didn’t answer too many questions as bullpen consisted of players with varying degrees of an obvious future with the team. Though the past has taught us not to look too closely at periods of the season for relievers (and I’m excluding C. Perez here), the second half of the season represented a bullpen that showed signs of life, if from some unlikely sources:
C. Perez – 0.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .445 OPS against
Jenny Lewis – 1.76 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .497 OPS against
R. Perez – 2.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .701 OPS against
Tony Sipp – 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .654 OPS against
Joe Smith – 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .534 OPS against
Justin Germano – 3.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .664 OPS against
Vinnie Pestano – 3.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .614 OPS against
Frank Herrmann – 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .795 OPS against

How does everyone feel about the 2011 bullpen looking like this?
That may be overly dismissive of players that DID perform down the stretch in 2010, but Jensen Lewis and Justin Germano represent those kind of “stop-gap” players that the Indians are hopefully getting away from in the bullpen. That being said, each thrived in the second half of the season and while Perez y Perez and (the still-inconsistent) Tony Sipp look like they should be part of the bullpen in 2011, do you see any of these names and immediately recognize who should be pitching the 7th or 8th inning as a RH reliever?

Maybe that name is there and will simply emerge over time (as relievers are wont to do, as Rocky Betancourt did), but going into 2011 with that group of RH relievers (outside of C. Perez) does not evoke confidence. While it is true that more compelling options exist down the road, the trajectory of Frank Herrman’s season should serve as a warning against getting overly excited about AAA numbers (Herrmann in Columbus – 0.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 28 2/3 IP) or a small-sample (Herrmann’s first 19 appearances in Cleveland – 2.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) with these young relievers.

While all of the questions about the rotation, the infield, and the bullpen have to do with players still trying to establish their value in MLB, the bigger questions exist with players who have established themselves in previous years (or in a brief stint this year), but who now find themselves returning from injury – be it a recent injury or a lingering one.

All of the team’s five best offensive players (Choo, Hafner, Sizemore, Cabrera, and Santana) missed significant time due to injury in 2010 and perhaps the biggest question facing the Indians (after which members of the rotation are legitimate MLB starters, and to what degree) is how those players return from those injuries. While the answer already exists for Choo (who did miss time this year, though not as much as initially thought) and the hope that Cabrera will rebound in 2011 from his struggles in 2010 (whether those struggles were caused by injury or not), how Sizemore and Santana (most notably) return from their injuries will go a long way in determining the direction of the 2011 season.

This season for both players could be marked as “incomplete” and while Sizemore’s performance prior to the injury call into question what can be expected of him (as well as wondering when the injury occurred) and Santana’s performance gave a glimpse as to what is possible, you want a crazy stat?

Austin Kearns, the player signed to a Minor-League deal with no 40-man guarantee, traded on July 30th, had more Plate Appearances than Santana and Sizemore combined this year...

While the idea that Hafner is getting healthier and healthier will be floated out there all off-season, the realization that Hafner’s is what it is at this point (incapable to playing prolonged effective stretches without rest), which will likely lead to the Indians adding a RH bat to complement him, Sizemore and Santana remain wild cards. If Sizemore can return to the form that saw him posting a cumulative OPS+ of 128 from 2005 to 2008, the offense could find some traction, particularly in terms of lengthening out. Additionally, if Santana can pick up where he left off last year (before Ryan Kalish unceremoniously ended his season), the offense comes into clearer focus and becomes more than just The BLC.

Health has, unfortunately, become a topic that Indians’ fans have grown all too aware of in the past three years and how important players on the team (both young, “youngish”, and old) recover from those injuries could stabilize the lineup in a way that an emerging group of young position players may simply not be ready for.

All told, 2010 was a painful year to live through and, while the hope that the pain was a result of the team building up in the way that a muscle aches as it grows, the fear that it is simply a gaping wound cannot be escaped. Much was learned, but more needs to be surmised in terms of particular players and groups of players as the season wore on.

So, if this is what we learned in 2010, what can be done leading up to 2011 to put the Indians closer to contention or at least to seeing that “window of contention” crack open, even a few more inches?
Stay tuned...

Attending to a Lazy Sunday

As the rhetoric has changed from “will the Indians avoid 100 losses” to “can the Indians really win 70 games” (not that 70 wins is any great shakes) on the strength of their sprint to the finish line over the last week or so, the 2010 will thankfully draw to a close today and the Indians will head into the off-season with a list of hits, misses, and hopes for the future incarnations of this team. While the entire off-season awaits to examine the moves that should and should not be made and the moves that will and will not (and I’m thinking that “will not” will rule the day) be made, perhaps today represents a day as good as any to the 2010 number that has been getting the most attention recently - 1,391,644.

That’s right, as the season winds down and the Indians come off of a 7-game winning streak, a good deal of focus has been placed onto the Indians’ “setting” the attendance record since they arrived in Jacobs Field as they drew the fewest fans since 1992, the year prior to the final season in Municipal Stadium…and remember, that 1993 number was inflated by people who wanted ticket priority for Jacobs Field.

If you don’t think that much attention has been paid to it, realize that the Editorial section of Sunday’s Plain Dealer had a piece about attendance and the economic impact that it has on the city, while taking the requisite swipes at the Dolans and the organization. This is an important topic apparently, despite the fact that elections are about a month away, local corruption has made the area a laughingstock once more, Cuyahoga County is ushering in a brand new regional governmental system with a new county executive and county council, none of whom have been elected, there is a state-wide race for Governor and Senator…and THIS is what graces the paper for me this morning for a medium that can’t figure out why they’re struggling to remain relevant.

Regardless of how a dying elephant chooses to draw attention to itself, there’s little question tha the attendance issue is an issue nonetheless and much of it has to do with a state of apathy that has settled on the North Coast. That apathy has come mainly from the perception that the Indians are ill-equipped to compete with the “haves” in MLB on a regular basis (which is true) and that the latest “Reloading/Rebuilding/Whatever” is full of empty promises and a place where “hope” is a plan.

How the Indians address, or don’t address, this perception this off-season will be fascinating to watch as Joe Posnanski has a great piece (unsurprisingly) questioning whether a team like the Royals (to use his example) should take the same avenue of marketing that Domino’s Pizza is currently taking, where they’re owning up to their inadequacies, apologizing for it, and promising to get better. The crux of it is that fans are tired of hearing that a team is “three years away” from contending, particularly when that refrain lasts for 15 years.

This is brought up because the most common reasoning that I hear from people who are disgusted with the current state of the Indians (well, second most common…after MLB disparity) is that the Indians constantly try to sell their future to the general public, just as the Royals have done, as Posnanski points out. As a sidebar, while the 2009 and 2010 seasons have been wildly disappointing in terms of end records, I’d put 2008 as inordinately more soul-crushing, given what was at stake.

But that idea of “what was at stake” is where I think the Indians in recent years separate themselves from those aforementioned Royals, or even the Pirates and Orioles, whom the Indians have suddenly been lumped in with as teams built merely on “hope” and “luck”. To get to the idea of why the Indians, even in recent years, don’t fit into that group of the MLB dregs, peep this:
The last time the Royals won 80 games or more was in 2003, when they won 83
The last time the Pirates won 80 games or more was in 1992, when they won 96
The last time the Orioles won 80 games or more was in 1997, when they won 98

In the last 15 years, here is the number of 80 win seasons for each franchise:
Kansas City 1 (3 in the last 20 years)
Pittsburgh – 0
Baltimore – 2 (1996 & 1997)

For some context, the Indians have 4 seasons in which they’ve won 80 or more games SINCE BARTOLO COLON WAS TRADED in 2002 (and those 4 have occurred in the last 7 seasons), with two 90 win seasons in that 7-year stretch and while the dissenting voices will say, “great, so we’re better off than those three dreadful franchises and we can win 80 games every other year…let’s throw a parade”, they’re missing the point.

The point is that every team who finishes a year well out of the playoff mix (like the Royals, Pirates, and Orioles...just to further the use those as examples) has bright spots and players they can point to as building blocks for the future, with the idea that the whole plan will fall into place and the team will become the latest in the list of “surprise” teams (like the Reds and Padres this year) and bear the fruit of their developmental efforts. Year after year ends with those bright spots, and players to build on, and a litany of “could be” statements.

Unlike many other teams, the Indians DID pull themselves out of the “could be” side of the ledger already in the last decade as they built, in short order, a contender from the ground up. Sure, the contender didn’t last long enough, but 2002 and 2003 certainly felt like the Indians were about to enter the realm of the bottom of the barrel in MLB and, while that feeling is pervasive to some now, the Indians should have made the playoffs in 2005 and were one win away from the World Series in 2007…this after the trade of Colon that made it feel like the Indians would never sniff the playoffs again.

The talk can go to why the Indians were unable to sustain that success, and that’s a legitimate conversation, but the Indians did climb that mountain of MLB competitiveness (something not easy to do) and they did it in the last 5 years, something that few teams can lay claim to that lie in similar financial standing to the Indians.

Would it have been great if the Indians simply transitioned from one group of contending groups to another in terms of players, with a sustained level of contention?

Absolutely, but while the baseball world cries over the fact that the Rays are about to break up (and they are about to break up and their window could be closing), the realities of sustaining success in MLB for small-market teams (solid drafting and development) are evident to anyone who takes even a moment to pay attention to this team and to MLB as a whole. On that side of the ledger, this organization has failed in recent years, but that “draft and develop” our own players thing has been beaten to a pulp in this space.

Regardless, the team is attempting to climb out of the crater again and while the crater may be of their own doing, it brings us back to the attendance issue as fans have stayed away and the question sits like the 800 pound elephant in the room - how does this team attract the fans?

Well, winning is an important component here, something that is not lost on the Indians as here’s Acta in a piece from AC that we’ll get back to in detail a little more later:
“People pick and choose what they want to support,” he said. “I can’t tell people what to choose. I am excited about this franchise. It’s a fact that we have to do things a certain way. It’s tough to tell people that’s what we have to do. But this is the way we have to operate. Our best chance is to draft and develop our players and make as few mistakes as we can. That’s the reality. All I can do is try to accelerate the process as much as I can to make this an exciting, blue-collar unit that people will want to come watch play.”

There is that optimism among the organization and among some fans that the talent to succeed, and perhaps sustain success, lies in wait already within the levels of the team. But will winning truly bring people back on a regular basis to the ballpark?

This is brought up (and I’m sure I’ve brought this up before) because here are the records and attendance for the team, starting with the 2005 team. For the sake of context, included is the rank in attendance as well as stadium capacity (which measures more accurately apples to apples because of disparate stadium sizes) for the last five years:
2005: 93-69
2,013,763 - 24th of 30 MLB teams
57.3% Capacity - 23rd of 30 MLB teams

2006: 78-84
1,997,936 - 25th of 30 MLB teams
56.8% Capcity - 22nd of 30 MLB teams

2007: 96-66
2,275,916 - 22nd of 30 MLB teams
65.6% Capacity - 17th of 30 MLB teams

2008: 81-81
2,169,722 - 22nd of 30 MLB teams
62.5% Capacity - 18th of 30 MLB teams

2009: 65-97
1,776,904 - 26th of 30 MLB teams
51.8% Capacity - 24th of 30 MLB teams

2010: 69-92
1,391,644 - 30th of 30 MLB teams
40.1% Capacity - 28th of 30 MLB teams

We all know about the slow starts and the inability of the team to put together two consecutive years of contention, which allowed some to be able to fall back on the “last year was a mirage, when they put a consistent winner on the field, I’ll go back” argument. But look at that number in 2007, where they ranked 22nd in attendance and 17th in stadium capacity filled, for a team that was one win away from the World Series. Even after that year, 2008 saw an attendance DROP, where fans still stayed away despite the Indians being the darling for many media members, who picked them to win the World Series before the season started.

So, if winning (albeit inconsistently) isn’t necessarily the panacea that most people think that it is, it goes back to the question of what this organization needs to do to engage a disenfranchised fanbase. While the cleveland.com crowd will howl about spending money on the FA market, remember that the Indians did spend money (imprudently, it turns out) on Kerry Wood prior to the 2009 season and the result at the box office was no different than a continuation of the downward trend. Some of that had to do with the performance on the field and with the trades of CP Lee and El Capitan mid-season, but the precipitous drop continued, despite wading into the FA waters.

Though it flies in the face of everything that sports-talk radio holds dear, spending money on FA for this organization is simply not the manner in which they should be building this team, particularly at this time in their developmental cycle. Remember when Billy Beane told Pete Gammons this on payroll:
“The way the system is right now, there really is no difference between a $75 million and $40 million payroll,” said Oakland GM Billy Beane. “I think a lot of small-market clubs look at that and ask, ‘Why pay $75 million when $40 million will buy me as many wins?’”

In case you don’t remember, here’s a quick reminder on recent payrolls on the North Coast, along with an absolutely fascinating graphic that compares the payrolls of all 30 teams over the last decade to the amount of wins they’ve averaged in that timeframe.
2003: $ 48,584,834
2004: $ 34,319,300
2005: $ 41,502,500
2006: $ 56,031,500
2007: $ 61,673,267
2008: $ 78,970,066
2009: $ 81,579,166
2010: $ 61,453,967

But I digress and will try to bring this back into the present tense in terms of what the Indians should be looking to do THIS off-season, in terms of improving their team but also to put out some sort of measure of good faith to the public that they are not content to slip into the dregs of MLB.

With that in mind, here are the payroll commitments for 2011 that have numbers already set – Hafner ($13M), Sizemore ($7.667M) and Carmona ($6.288M), which adds up to $27.455M

There will be bumps in arbitration for Rafael Perez (2nd year of arbitration), but more notably for Choo and Cabrera and perhaps CF Perez. That list finally leads us back to the idea of how this team should be approaching this off-season as most assume the first priority to be locking up The BLC on a long-term deal. While most fans don’t realize that Choo is under the Indians’ control for three more seasons and are wildly unfamiliar with arbitration and only see Scott Boras looming while the idea that Choo is not long for Cleveland takes off, let’s take a step back and analyze this Choo situation.

To get us to where we’re going, let’s first address this garbage story from Detroit about Choo wanting to join the Tigers, which comes from this particular columnist who has been (inexplicably) banging the drum for the Tigers to pick up Peralta’s option because Peralta has experienced a “turnaround” in Detroit when he’s really just been hot recently...and when has Peralta ever been hot to close out a season…no, not Jhonny. Additionally, this “turnaround” is largely false as Peralta’s OPS+ in Cleveland was 95. His OPS+ in Detroit is 97…so maybe these glowing remarks that Peralta had to say about Motown had to do more with him being “happy” (partly because he’s back to playing SS) because it is “so different” playing for the Tigers. And why wouldn’t Jhonny feel more comfortable in a place where he’s not seen as a profound disappointment, who peaked at age 23 and regressed at the plate and in the field ever since.

Regardless, back to Choo and this intimation that SS Choo told Peralta, “When I'm a free agent, I want to go to Detroit.”…um, everyone knows that Scott Boras is The BLC’s new agent right?

Perhaps this has nothing to do with Peralta at all when you consider this story last year on MLB.com that listed the Tigers as front-runners for the services of Johnny Damon, who was essentially out of other options, before Detroit swooped in and gave him $8M, likely due to the “relationship” between Boras and the Tigers, which is explained in some detail in the piece:
In 2004, clubs were reluctant to negotiate a multiyear agreement with catcher Ivan Rodriguez, a Boras client, because of concerns that his aging body wouldn't hold up to the grind of catching. The Tigers came through with a four-year, $40 million contract (though only two years and $19 million were guaranteed to Pudge). He played four strong years for the Tigers, batting .298 with 67 home runs and 268 RBIs while playing in at least 129 games each season.
In 2005, Boras client Magglio Ordonez was the last prominent free agent available on the market, due to concerns about his surgically repaired right knee. The Tigers didn’t just take a chance on him; they gave him a five-year, $75 million contract. He played just 82 games in 2005 but bounced back to play in an average of 147 games a season over the next four years. Ordonez topped 20 HRs and 100 RBIs each season from 2006-08 before dropping off last year, although he still hit well enough (.310 average) to vest his option for 2010.
Both the Rodriguez and Ordonez contracts came shortly before the opening of Spring Training camp, so the Damon deal, if consummated, would not be without precedent.
In fact, Boras’ ties to the Tigers run deep, as he has also represented the likes of Kenny Rogers, Bobby Seay and Rick Porcello. And in Ilitch, Boras seems to have found a successful negotiating partner.
“The thing I like to say,” Boras said last week, “is that Mike knows his investments. His businesses are successful.”

Starting to see where this comes from now, even if it is just a conversation between two players who may not have had that much to talk about on the field before a game?

This Boras/Tigers thing is actually pretty pervasive and you can throw Jacob Turner on to that list and, if you don’t know who that is, he’s the Tigers’ 2009 1st Round Pick who received the largest signing bonus ever given to a high school player ($4.7M in a MLB deal that could pay him $4M more) and you start to see why the Tigers have been whispered in Choo’s ear by Boras, who has been the beneficiary of Mike Ilitch’s largesse for quite some time. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Scott Boras has an unusual amount of pull in the Tigers’ contract decisions, but don’t be surprised if Jayson Werth is suiting up for Detroit next year…and that Werth’s new agent (one Scott Boras) is smiling broadly at the press conference.

Back to Choo and this looming contract issue, MLB Trade Rumors had an interesting piece a while back, bringing in some comparable players and what they earned in their first year of arbitration, settling somewhere around a $3M to $4M salary for The BLC next year, then making the case for Choo in terms of an extension:
If Choo is making $3-4MM next year and is set to receive raises in 2012 and 2013, the Indians would likely have to be prepared to spend considerably to sign Choo for the next three seasons. Antonetti could go year to year, especially if it looks like Choo will have to serve in the South Korean military, but if the Indians do sign their right fielder for the next three years, it probably won’t be for less than $20MM.
Nick Markakis, who signed a long-term extension with the Orioles after the 2008 season, then had remarkably similar numbers to the ones Choo has now. Markakis, who also has a strong throwing arm and plays right field, edges Choo in average, runs and homers, but Choo has more RBI and steals and better on base and slugging averages. Markakis’ extension could be a model for Cleveland and he will earn $20MM for his three arbitration seasons.

Markakis contract is actually a 6-year deal worth $66M, so the $20M that he earned in the first 3 years (and the breakdown was $3M in the first year, $6.75M in the second year, and $10.25M in the third year) is technically true, but it’s also lost in the fact that Markakis has 3 years on that deal worth an additional $46M.

That being said, I could see the Indians using that 3-year, $20M number as a starting point, but I don’t see it going much past that, based on Scott Boras’ likely plan for Choo past those three years (which could or could not involve Detroit) and Jon Steiner from WFNY summed this up quite well in a piece from some time ago, but that certainly rings true:
While I agree that Boras won’t let Choo sign a contract longer than three years, I do think it’s likely that Choo will sign rather than going to arbitration. For one thing, I would think that a 29 year old outfielder might want some job security. All it would take is one injury to end Choo’s earning potential were he to go to arbitration (arbitration settlements last for one year only). If, on the other hand, he signs a three-year deal with the Indians, he would be protected financially in case he were to get injured, even if he did believe he was leaving some money on the table to do so.

Let me say this...I love Choo, I love the fact that he is The BLC and that he came out of nowhere to become the player that he has become. I have a deep appreciation for the fact that he truly is a 5-tool player whose worth is likely understated by the fact that he’s currently playing with a group of prospects. However, the question is whether the Indians should be looking to give a long-term deal to Choo as he’s still under club control for three years and he’s going to get his money, whether it’s in a series of three one-year deals (arbitration or not) or some other amalgamation that combines to give him three years under contract with the Indians.

Should the Indians be looking to lock up Choo past those three years, given his recent performance and given what we’ve seen at the box office at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario?

The fact is that Choo’s going to be 30 when his contract expires and 31 in his first year of FA and if you don’t remember, there was another slugger who signed an extension when he was 30 and whose performance has dipped considerably since he signed that deal. For teams like the Indians, long term deals for 30+ year old players generally aren’t a good idea and, as unpopular as this may be to say on the heels of Choo’s 2010 season, the Indians always have to be paying for future production, not past results.

Perhaps Choo is an exception and his recent play certainly looks as if he’s among the best players in the AL (or at least in the conversation), but the Indians need to balance what’s right for the organization today against what’s best for the organization tomorrow. That may not be a popular opinion, but signing Westbrook and Hafner certainly looked like great deals for the Indians of 2007, but turned out to be poor decisions in hindsight.

Ultimately, the Indians should let other teams fight over a six or seven year deal for Choo and if they want to take a logical approach to Choo this off-season, I like the idea of going after that 4th year as an option year, even if it means front-loading some of this deal which is to say that if they use, say a 3-year deal worth $24M to buy out his arbitration years, they work the numbers so he’s getting paid $8M annually and not on some sort of escalating scale, where he would get paid $3M, then $7M, then $10M in the next three years.

Would that be enough to entice Boras into agreeing to a $12M (which is what Markakis’ contract includes for the first year that he gave up FA) or thereabouts club option?
Not bloody likely, but it gets back to the idea of what this organization is going to do to “prove” to the fanbase that they’re above the likes of Pittsburgh and Kansas City this off-season to entice the folks back to the ballpark.

Regardless of the fact that they may not even care and may simply keep their heads down as they attempt to carry through with an existing plan, I’m hoping that the Indians don’t make a foolish foray into the world of FA to pacify the fanbase by throwing bad money at a mediocre player. Reason being that the way that teams like the Indians are built isn’t through Free Agency. Generally, that avenue should only be taken when drafts and trades have left a crater at a particular position, with no immediate or coming help being apparent.

For this current Indians’ team, the question becomes whether adding a FA turn this team into an immediate contender?

Sure, there were bright spots in the second half, as the team was 34-38 after the All-Star Break and the pitching, specifically the turnaround for Carmona and the September starting pitching, along with the performance of the bullpen, specifically CF Perez (who is currently 3rd in ERA+ for pitchers with more than 60 IP in all of MLB with an ERA+ of 229, which ranks behind only Billy Wagner and Joakim Soria, in front of Rafael Soriano and Brian Wilson) are undoubtedly signs of life.

But if you’ve been following the recent history of the team, the Indians are probably better served staying the course that they’ve already laid out and while most think that the Indians are going to get that starter for the rotation, Acta’s comment that they go after “not a veteran, but a good pitcher…you can’t just bring in a 40-year-old guy to say you brought in a veteran” brought this from Castrovince, who waded waded through the post-mortem press conference as only Castrovince can:
Because good pitchers cost good money, I would say it’s somewhat safe to assume the Indians will stick with the arms they have in place. But I’ve been wrong before.

Since most assume that the “good pitcher” essentially boils down to a return from Jake Westbrook, with him accepting less money to come back to Cleveland, this is fairly interesting from St. Louis:
Cardinals’ starter Jake Westbrook, nearing the eve of his first shot at free agency, said he shares the club's interest in his return and wouldn't be resistant to discussing a deal before hitting the open market.
“I’m definitely going to be open-minded about pretty much everything,” Westbrook said. “If they had interest, I’ve definitely enjoyed my time here. I’ve gotten to know the guys well. The organization is definitely one that everybody knows about, that I’ve certainly heard a lot about, and now, firsthand, I’ve gotten to see that everybody was right.”

Pieces like this come out at the end of every season for every veteran, but if “the Cardinals coveted Westbrook for several years, and pitching coach Dave Duncan is among those advocating Westbrook’s return” as the piece asserts, Jake may be squarely in the crosshairs of the Cardinals and may not be making a return to the North Coast

If Jake does stay in St. Louis, is the idea of getting a “good pitcher” even feasible or prudent?
When you look at other players that are out there, you start to wonder. Just to use an example, always-alert reader John Mast points out that Joel Sherman of The New York Post sees Javy Vazquez getting a “one-year, $4 million gamble with incentives” (and, truth be told, the guess is at the end of a piece that questions whether Vazquez is the WORST YANKEES PITCHER EVER...oh, the humanity), so is that the way that you’d like to see the Indians go in “adding” to their rotation?

Interestingly, since 2003 Vazquez has inexplicably operated on this bad year followed by a good year cycle and if you look at the pattern (to which there's probably nothing), he’s “in line” for a good year:
2003 – 139 ERA+
2004 – 92 ERA+
2005 – 101 ERA+
2006 – 98 ERA+
2007 – 126 ERA+
2008 – 98 ERA+
2009 – 143 ERA+
2010 – 81 ERA+
It is worth noting that, except for 2007 with the White Sox, all of the years with ERA+ above 100 occurred in the NL, while all of the years with ERA+ under 100 occurred in the AL...so, perhaps there’s something to that. Additionally, I’m scared off a little by the fact that he can’t seem to stick anywhere and I think I remember Ozzie Guillen calling him a “loser” or thereabouts questioning his heart and I’m not sure we need that (if there’s even a kernel of truth to it) rubbing off on young, impressionable pitchers.

To that end, serial poster Cy Slapnicka sent me an interesting proposition as he doesn’t see Westbrook taking the Indians’ discounted offer and wonders whether a better tact to take in terms of adding a veteran presence to the pitching staff to serve as “an assistant pitching coach, basically a recently retired veteran, with a good idea how to approach the game from the pitchers perspective – not a pitching coach fixing mechanics – but a Millwood-type player, to help the young staff mature, as Millwood did in 2005 or even as Byrd did later”.

The idea is not without merit if you remember what CC and Westbrook said they learned from Millwood that one year in terms of pitching and maybe the Indians already have a person like that in Charles Nagy, who did an effective job with Carlos Carrasco in Columbus.

Regardless of what they do, it comes down to the question of what the best use of money is and whether the Indians are better served taking a chance on a reclamation project, like the aforementioned Javy Vazquez or someone of similar ilk, or if the Indians should simply keep going on this track that they’ve laid out. It should be noted that the off-season between 2003 and 2004 saw the Indians add Jeff D’Amico to their rotation and traded for Jeriome Robertson, so if the past provides any clues as to what they’re going to do…it’s not a lot.

But that brings it all back to this idea about how this off-season is important to the Indians in terms of public perception. If they generally stand pat on the FA front (which is probably the right move) or simply sign Choo to a one-year deal, how will that affect how they are seen by most fans?

Perhaps them staying out of the FA market and going year-to-year with Choo is the most prudent way to approach both situations. But neither of those actions (or non-actions) is going to bring the droves back to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. Ultimately, winning will…or at least it should, and the Indians have to hope that the players that they’ve put into place for 2011 and beyond are able to return the team to its winning ways.

While those “winning ways” in recent years were all too brief and bittersweet in terms of where we sit now, they find themselves (again) at a place in which they need to separate themselves (again) from organizations that constantly sell the idea of “next year” or “three years from now” because the Indians are dealing with a fanbase that has been sold “next year” or “three years from now” from all of its teams for the last 40 years and the Indians’ ability or inability to come through on providing “next year” in short order (as they did in 2005 and 2007) will ultimately determine the future of the franchise in Cleveland.