The Sum of All Fears

Heading into the 2008 season, the Indians’ offense was not generally thought to be the strength of the team or an incarnation of “Murderers’ Row” that was thought to reside in that city Northwest of Cleveland; but was instead considered a decent offense built around a few exceptional hitters (Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez), a couple of young RH power bats who projected to develop into bigger run-producers (Garko and Peralta), some very young hitters (Gutierrez and Cabrera) thought to be capable of maturing into MLB hitters, and a few role players who filled out the roster (Blake and Dellichaels).

Instead of those pieces revealing themselves, the Indians’ offense has fallen flat on their collective face with no obvious turnaround and a lineup full of players not meeting (much less exceeding) expectations that were held for them as 2008 dawned. Throughout the frustrating games, the Indians’ brass has stated that the Indians’ hitters were “better than they were showing” or that they were “close to the breakout that was coming”. Even AL Central managers Trey Hillman, Jim Leyland, and Ozzie Guillen went on record to say that the Indians’ offense was better than the team their clubs faced in April. Unless we’re dealing with lip service from many sources, how could they have that optimism or opinion based on the poor plate appearances and the inability to string together a rally that we’ve become accustomed to watching from the Tribe offense in this young season?

The only factor that I can find that would support that the team is simply slumping (albeit in unprecedented ways) and that the Indians’ hitters truly are “better than what they’re showing” is by comparing the 3-year averages for players from 2005-2007 to their production for this year. The line of thinking being that MLB players show their true colors not over two weeks or one month, but rather over the track record that they themselves put in the books over the course of multiple seasons. Every player on the Indians except for Asdrubal has such a track record, which the Indians no doubt use to create expectations for a player entering a season. With the exception of Cabrera (and realizing that Garko and Gutierrez don’t have lengthy track records), the comparison of the Indians’ hitters 3-year averages to their 2008 numbers to date is both jarring and disturbing.

For the sake of comparing apples to apples, I’m only comparing BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS as the comparison of runs, HR, and the like is only going to murky the waters. The comparison of the track record that the hitters have entering this year, compared to what they’ve put forth in the first 30-plus games of the season goes a little something like this:

Martinez
3-year - .308 BA / .381 OBP / .482 SLG / .863 OPS
2008 - .347 BA / .380 OBP / .411 SLG / .791 OPS
If you need an indication of truly how bad this team is hitting, realize that their best hitter this year is still markedly off his 3-year averages. Victor has seen his BA raise and his OBP stay in line with his 3-year track record, but the drop-off in his SLG is puzzling unless his hamstring is robbing him of some power or the lack of production from ANYWHERE else in the lineup is causing his approach to simply getting on base and trying to get rallies started. Yes, he’s hitting very well…but still not at the rate that he’s established for himself from 2005 to 2007.

Garko
3-year - .290 BA / .358 OBP / .479 SLG / .837 OPS
2008 - .242 BA / .361 OBP / .354 SLG / .715 OPS
While Garko really has only played a full season once (last year), he did post limited AB in 2005 and 2006 so the track record is there - it’s just not as lengthy (only 670 AB prior to 2008) as the other players on this list. That being said, Garko’s OBP has remained consistent while (like Martinez) his power numbers are off which, again, could be a result of him being mainly concerned about getting the bat on the ball versus getting something behind his swing.

Peralta
3-year - .272 BA / .342 OBP / .442 SLG / .784 OPS
2008 - .216 BA / .279 OBP / .392 SLG / .671 OPS
Peralta’s numbers are just too similar to the rest of the players shown as his numbers are down across the board. His OBP has fallen to ridiculously low levels as his 3-year track record show that there is a better hitter there….we’re just not seeing it now. Maybe it’s time to check the warranty on that LASIK surgery that we’ve heard so much about.

Blake
3-year - .263 BA / .333 OBP / .448 SLG / .781 OPS
2008 - .202 BA / .286 OBP / .340 SLG / .626 OPS
Being the RBI leader on this team is like being the prettiest girl in the Omega Mu Sorority at Adams College, so let’s get the argument that Blake is producing out of the way as 63% of his RBI (12 of the 19) have come in 11% of the games he’s played (3 of 28). Lacey Cake’s 2008 numbers, like the rest of the lineup, are significantly down from his 3-year averages. The difference, though, is that Blake’s 3-year average is lower than anyone else on the team to begin with more than two full years under his belt – which means that the drop in his production comes from a lower ceiling, the production at a lower level is going to be below the rest of the lineup. Looking at those numbers again, you have to ask if Casey is a valuable piece on this team. I would say yes…just not as an everyday player.

Dellucci (vs. RHP)
3-year - .264 BA / .359 OBP / .502 SLG / .861 OPS
2008 - .268 BA / .346 OBP / .451 SLG / .797 OPS
Like Victor, everyone has hailed Dellucci as one of the players still hitting on the Indians (he is somehow hitting 3rd), which is true…to a point. I’m only comparing numbers against RHP here as he only has 1 AB against LHP all season and his role remains that of the LH stick in the Dellichaels platoon. That all being said, Dellucci’s numbers are also down across the board from what should reasonably expected of him, even with that 3-year average being affected by his dreadful .240 BA / .306 OBP / .403 SLG / .709 OPS line against RHP last year. Is his 2008 an improvement on 2007? Absolutely, but it is still not reaching the levels that should be expected from the track record he’s established in the last three years.

Michaels (vs. LHP)
3-year - .299 BA / .380 OBP / .437 SLG / .817 OPS
2008 - .125 BA / .250 OBP / .167 SLG / .417 OPS
With the news that Michaels has been Designated for Assignment today, this .417 OPS against LHP will disappear from our greater consciousness as The Ben Francisco Treat will join the Indians in the Bronx. Not much more can be written about the anchor that Michaels has been against LHP that hasn’t already been said here or how his presence on the roster and in the lineup effectively set the Indians back in terms of seeing what they had in their prospects. Regardless, a .400 drop in OPS is pretty staggering. For Michaels to post an average OPS of .817 against LHP for the last 3 years only to see it cut nearly in half is a precipitous drop unlike any this side of the Indians’ DH (whose comparison is forthcoming). With all of those ugly numbers, Michaels’ roster spot has been cleared for The Frisco Kid, who will hopefully see the field and (should) perform at a higher level than Michaels.

Sizemore
3-year - .285 BA / .372 OBP / .493 SLG / .865 OPS
2008 - .277 BA / .393 OBP / .446 SLG / .839 OPS
Ever-steady, Grady has actually performed as close to anyone on the roster in terms of coming close to matching his 3-year average. This should be viewed as an “OK” thing and not much more as it means that Sizemore seems to be settling into these numbers instead of gradually improving (if not breaking out) as he matures as a hitter. I suppose in the grand scheme of this lineup, Grady simply walking the line he’s drawn for himself falls pretty far down the line of issues for this team. That being said, it sure would be nice to see him take that next step as a hitter, particularly in terms of power.

Gutierrez
3-year - .267 BA / .308 OBP / .434 SLG / .743 OPS
2008 - .253 BA / .295 OBP / .364 SLG / .659 OPS
Even more than Garko, Gutierrez’s 3-year average isn’t really a great indication of the hitter that he is as he only posted 408 AB from 2005 to 2007. As a player still adjusting to MLB, Gutierrez has to be allowed much more breathing room in terms of his 2008 as he’s still establishing the type of hitter he will be, as opposed to the majority of the lineup having a track record to serve as a comparison. A maturing Gutierrez is the least of this team’s problems, particularly with his defense in RF.

Hafner
3-year - .292 BA / .409 OBP / .562 SLG / .971 OPS
2008 - .209 BA / .305 OBP / .345 SLG / .650 OPS
What was that about Frank the Tank being the least of this team’s problems?
Ladies and gentleman of the jury, here is the largest of the team’s offensive problems. I’ve already addressed (along with about 40 other people) what I think is wrong with Hafner, so I’m not going to bore you again with the percentage of pitches and strikes that he’s swinging at. Just realize that the 3-year average that Hafner put up from 2005 to 2007, with a sub par (for him) 2007 was nothing short of remarkable and the fact that Hafner has the 3rd lowest SLG on this team (just 5 points ahead of Blake and Cabrera…I’m not counting Michaels as his ticket off this team has hopefully been punched) shows that the drop off we’re watching every night bring to mind Jim McKay and Vinko Bogataj, with the difference being that when Hafner strides to the plate these days there is a “can’t look” feeling instead of the “can’t look away” attitude that usually accompanies such a horrific fall.

Not one (NOT ONE!) player on the Indians is hitting at a level equal to or higher what their 3-year average would indicate to be a reasonable expectation. It’s true that certain players have downturns or off years, but to see a regression as sever and widespread as the numbers above is nothing short of remarkable. Realizing that the drop-offs go from (to borrow an old rallying cry) “One Through Nine”, here’s the breakdown of the regressions from the biggest downturn to the least severe in terms of OPS from 2005 to 2007 compared to this year, thus far:
Michaels: -400
Hafner: -321
Blake: -155
Garko: -122
Peralta: -113
Gutierrez: -84
Victor: -72
Dellucci: -64
Sizemore: -26

Outside of Gutierrez, Victor, Dellucci, and Sizemore, every player in the lineup has an OPS more than 100 points lower than what should reasonably be expected of them based on their track record of the last 3 years. Look at those four names again…look familiar? It’s the top four in The Atomic Wedgie’s most recent lineups as they’re trying to at least lump together the players that are hitting (relatively speaking) well and somewhat in line with what is to be expected of them.

The problem, obviously, is that the slump is not unique to one or two spots in the lineup and that the players thought to be the #3, #5, and #6 hitters in the lineup have seen significant regressions from what was expected of them entering the season. The net result, obviously, has been an offense without claws and without any semblance of consistency as the team remains fortunate that their strong starting pitching has not forced them to become absolutely buried in their division.

So what do the numbers of this offensive offense tell us?
One school of thought would be that the Indians’ hitters are undergoing a team-wide slump of historical proportions and that the individual hitters will eventually levitate toward the numbers that their 3-year track record indicates them to be capable of achieving. The opposite view would be that the Indians’ hitters are flawed to the point that their regression is an indication that the hitters that they have shown to be in 2008 is closer to their true selves and that little to no improvement is to be expected.

I tend to side with the former and I don’t think it’s just because I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy. Baseball remains a game of averages where a good month balances out a bad month with the numbers coming out in the wash at the end of the season. If that is truly the case, the Indians’ hitters almost HAVE to emerge from the doldrums to approach the benchmarks they’ve set for themselves in recent years. The struggles of the team are simply too far-reaching and too extreme (look again at those OPS drops) for this to be who these hitters are optimally.

Until that day comes, though, when the hitting finally comes around (maybe Benny Francisco will serve as the spark that Asdrubal did last year for a scuffling offense) and the players start to approach the numbers expected of them, the Indians will continue to rely on their starting pitching, hope that their bullpen can right itself, and try to win some low-scoring games before they get too deep in the standings, no matter what the calendar on the wall says.

Lazy Sunday Looking Into the Abyss

A little late on the clock here with the DiaBride gallivanting around the NYC for the weekend, doing her best “Sex in the City” imitation, as I am left playing the role of Mr. Mom – which has left my time to reflect on the Indians to a minimum. In reality, with the way that they’re playing right now – that might not be a bad thing…

The starting pitching is great…the offense is pathetic…the bullpen is suddenly a mess again.
How’s that for a succinct summary of what this homestand has looked like?

Plenty of time for analysis as the weeks goes on, but for now (as my admiration for single parents grows with each passing moment), let’s take a Lazy one:

Terry Pluto has his own take on the struggles of the man now simply known as “Travis” as “Pronk” hasn’t lived here in a while. In the same linked piece, Pluto also thinks that something will happen this week when The Ben Francisco Treat can come back to Cleveland in the middle of this week (players need to spend 10 calendar days in the minors after being optioned unless a player for the parent club goes on the DL) and that his promotion will come at the expense of Carson Kressley.
I hope that Pluto has some inside information on this and isn’t just stating what’s been said in most places since the second week of the season. It’s not going to solve all the problems of this offense (and there are many), but at least it would represent the first step in acknowledging that there is a problem.

Paul Hoynes revisits the Jason Bay talk from the off-season, saying that current AL Pitcher of the Month Cliff Lee may or may not have been part of a deal that may or may not have been taking place, on his conclusion that “sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you don’t make”. His mention of Carlos Quentin as a possible return for Lee, though, has me thinking (again) how nice Quentin would look in LF as I’m sure Cliff Lee’s inclusion wasn’t the dealbreaker for the D-Backs.

Speaking of the trade market, Ken Rosenthal comes correct with his identification of some players that may be available in the coming months.

Masa Kobayashi wants to be the Indians’ closer one day. After another 9th inning HR given up by Betancourt to put an already out of reach game (at 1-0) completely unattainable…how’s Tuesday sound?

On a related topic, can I get the schedule of when and where JoeBo will start making his rehab appearances to ensure that he is not healthy enough to simply re-assume the closer role? Not that I’m going to do anything rash, I’ll just find the scouts in the seats that will be the judge of Brodzoski (The Close)’s health and be a little bird, chirping on their shoulder that there’s no way that he’s healthy.

Again, much more as the week progresses (and the DiaBride returns), but for now I’m going to figure out a way for Aaron Laffey to stay on this roster after I go to the Yankees’ transaction log to see what injury has befallen one of their players today.

Tomahawks Flying

In an AL where no team has separated itself (whether it be in the Central or elsewhere), the Indians remain right in the thick of things as the calendar turns to May with certain players (Pronk, Garko, Brodzoski, C.C., just to name a few) more than happy to rip the “April” page off their desk calendars than others (C.P. Lee, Masa, um…I guess Dellucci).
Perhaps the April showers have passed and May promises to be full of, well…let’s just let ‘em fly before I get all poetic:
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As good as Sandy Koufax…I mean Steve Carlton…I mean Warren Spahn…I mean Cliff Lee (there, I got it) has been and as much as his numbers are a mind blowing anomaly in comparison to his previous two seasons, here’s the greatest part of his 2008 season – three of his five victories have ended three game losing streaks for the Indians. If CLIFF LEE is playing the role of “Stopper”, what will that mean when C.C. finally gets fully untracked, when Jake returns, and when Fausto stops walking people – that the Indians won’t have a losing streak longer than two games?
The way that the starting pitching is setting up, the Indians are one offensive hot streak (even if it’s just 4 to 5 runs a game) from putting a string of victories together that could put some distance between them and the rest of the AL Central.
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Interesting to see the Mariners jettison both OF Brad Wilkerson and 1B Greg Norton after Tuesday’s victory over the Tribe. Granted, Norton was playing very little and his replacement on the roster (Jeff Clement) is a highly thought-of prospect and Wilkerson had posted an OPS of .652 to that point in the season, but the Mariners hadn’t even played 30 games when the move was made. Generally, we all hear that the “magical” 40-game mark is the point that organizations wait for before making significant changes on their roster.

Whether getting rid of two aging veterans who weren’t really contributing and didn’t have much upside represent “significant changes” is debatable, but it may serve as the first among many moves as teams around the league switch gears or move some plate appearances around. If that is the case (and I know that my harping on Carson Kressley is bordering on the irrational as his inclusion in the lineup is simply an irritation and not a HUGE problem), I happen to know of a certain blonde-locked OF taking time away from other potential players (presently in Cleveland and Buffalo) whose OPS cracked the .500 mark after ONLY 48 AB while playing in 20 of the first 28 games of the season.
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I’m certainly not one to the live in the past (the suggestion that Omar Vizquel should return to Cleveland at this point in his career to “upgrade our defense” and “recapture the magic of Jacobs Field” puts my stomach in knots), but does anyone else miss seeing the Rally Pies fly in the post game interviews?

Fully realizing that the Trotter was the burr under everyone’s saddle last year, the looseness of the clubhouse that seems to be notably lacking this year is one big difference between this year’s team and last year’s incarnation of the Tribe. It’s obviously an attribute that doesn’t show up anywhere on paper and is certainly is not quantifiable, but I long for the mischief and mayhem of a whipped cream concoction in a post-game interview.

On a somewhat related note, somebody’s looking pretty good in AAA this year, and I don’t mean the “Just For Men”-free goatee. His OPS for Tucson is 100 points higher than anyone in Buffalo.
Whose blood pressure just went up?
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In case you haven’t noticed, since the Bronx Bombers have left town on Monday night, their transaction log has been rather full:
Placed Jorge Posada on the 15-day DL (Right Shoulder)
Placed A-Quad on the 15-day DL (Strained Quadriceps)
Placed Phil Hughes on the 15-day DL (Strained Oblique)

Regardless of how effective “surefire HOFer” Phil Hughes has been, we all know what a strained oblique does to a pitcher (see Jake and C.P. Lee circa 2007) and I can’t imagine that a throwing shoulder injury to a catcher is something that is easily ironed out (made worse that the Yankees’ DH queue is already full with Damon and HGHiambi), so this is not good news in the Bronx. Throw in the fact that Brian Bruney, one of their only reliable relievers not named Joba or Mo, just learned that his foot injury will keep him out until August at the earliest and you see that the depth that the Indians have, and the Yankees lack, could make a big difference down the stretch in the AL…unless you think that Jose Molina, Morgan Ensberg, Alberto Gonzalez, and the likes of Billy Traber, Kei Igawa (seriously), and Ross Ohlendorf (who sounds like a goon from “Slap Shot”) are going to carry the flag for the Yanks as their roster ages before our eyes.
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With all of that said (that is, about the Indians’ depth and how it relates to the rest of the AL), an interesting batch of players to watch on the farm for the next few weeks is going to be the arms that constitute the Indians’ starting pitching depth. With Laffey figuring to stay on the parent club while Jake rehabs, the Indians’ #7 through #9 starters look to be Sowers, Atom Miller, and Smoke ‘Em Brian Slocum. Further down the ladder, former 1st round pick David Huff seems to have turned a corner in Akron and could figure into the depth going forward.

Why will this be interesting to watch shake out? Let’s say that Laffey performs well in his stint in Cleveland, that Atom Miller (whose starts since returning have been playing to glowing reviews) shows that his talent is real and that he is healthy, that Slocum fills the role of a #7 to #8 depth starter by eating innings in Buffalo, and that Huff continues his progression as a prospect into Buffalo. Would the Indians entertain trading Sowers, who they see (trust me) as no more than a #5 starter and could have some trade value with his 2005 season, his start against the Yankees, and continued success in Buffalo?

I know that the Indians figure to have two spots to fill in the rotation for 2009 and the trade of Sean Smith thinned out their depth already, but if the Indians count on Laffey and Miller and possibly add an arm in FA, as well has having a comfort level with the development of players like Huff or even a Ryan Edell, there’s a good possibility that they can sell high on Sowers to fill another organizational hole. Would he bring a huge return? No, not by himself…but he could be a piece that the Tribe dangles in front of other teams as a young, cheap, talented arm that may be more valuable to an organization that doesn’t play their home games at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
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Maybe I’m late to the game on this, but I recently learned that Rocky Betancourt’s entrance music is not some absurd Venezuelan death metal, as I had previously thought. It’s actually the White Stripes song “Conquest”, whose linked video has me walking around all day whistling the horn intro that accompanies the Fist of Steel to the mound. Regardless of his terrifying HR rate this year (he’s given up 3 HR in 11 1/3 IP after giving up 4 HR throughout all of his 79 1/3 IP in 2007), I know that he will come to “make a…conquest”.
Cue the horns.
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After the recent foibles of the Tribe bats, you may be in the dumper on this team and it’s all-or-nothing offense, but Cheer Up, Charlie – the Indians are 13-15 with Pronk’s OPS sitting at .642, with Brodzoski (The Close) blowing 2 games before the revelation that his right arm may have been held together with chicken wire and bubble gum which have now failed him, and their reigning Cy Young winner’s first 4 starts of the season netting a ERA of 11.57.
How are they not hopelessly out of the race already with those factors?
Very simply, consistent and consistently excellent pitching.

If the formula really is pitching, pitching and more pitching, you have to remain optimistic about this team, regardless of how difficult that may seem on certain nights. The starting pitching will keep this team in most games and, assuming that the progression of relievers is solidified, the bullpen will keep opposing offenses at bay – allowing the offense to find its footing and some semblance of consistency and traction.
And when (not if) it does, watch out.

What the Pronk?

The Indians’ offense has, once again, become the hot-button issue in town (despite my buddy Dozer’s insistence to talk about 4th round picks and that Beau Bell is a “diamond in the rough”) and the disturbing trends that reared their ugly heads earlier in the season are seeing daylight again as the Indians’ main cogs of offense are underperforming and putting unnecessary pressure (and a bright spotlight) on the bottom of the order and the players designed to be complimentary parts of the roster.

Consider that the most RBI in the Tribe lineup has come from the #8 hole (19 RBI).
Next up? The #9 hole and, of course, the #2 hole with 16 RBI.
That’s right, the #3 hole (14 RBI), the #4 hole (11 RBI), and #5 hole (13 RBI) don’t even crack the top three run producing spots in the order to date.

What gives? We all know that Garko is hitless in his last 23 at-bats, that Peralta is maddeningly inconsistent, and that Victor has only 4 extra base hits (all 2B) in his 27 hits and is sitting on an OBP (.397) that almost matches his SLG (.417). Since when did Vic the Stick become Ichiro?

Let me throw an answer out there for you…and don’t stop me because you’ve heard this one before – it’s Pronk, or better yet, a lack of Pronk. Going into Tuesday’s game, Travis Hafner’s OPS sat at .667, slightly ahead of Julio Lugo (.663) and slightly behind David Eckstein (.673) as the Tribe approaches their 30th game. LUGO?!? ECKSTEIN?!?

Regardless of what Big Papi’s doing (.611 OPS, in case you were wondering), Hafner’s 2007 struggles look to be carrying over to 2008 and weighing down the lineup like an anchor. It’s true that the #2 hole remains a work in progress (though Dellucci has acquitted himself nicely against RHP), but the fact that Hafner is looking more timid at the plate than ever and is sabotaging rally after rally is killing the Indians’ offense.

Those situations that Pronk used to stride into like a WWE wrestler making his way to the squared circle have become a distant memory. Those pitches that Pronk used to (as Rick Manning so eloquently puts it) “spit at” are finding their way into the catcher’s mitt with a raised right hand of the umpire behind it or are barely making the infield grass.

What in the name of Bruce Banner is going on here?
Let’s start to examine the numbers, starting with Hafner’s “famous” eye that drove him to having an OPS over 1.000 in 2005 and 2006. Hafner’s BB rate is the lowest (11.1%) since 2003, peaking at 18.1% in his superb 2005 campaign. Conversely, his K rate is the highest it has been (at 27.1%) since that same 2003 season. So, the combination of walking less and striking out more means that he’s not seeing the ball as well, right? Well, actually the percentage of strikes that he’s swinging at (66%) and the overall pitches he’s swinging at (about 40%) have remained pretty steady since 2004 with him actually swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone this year than he ever has in his career, only swinging at 14.5% of pitches outside of the zone in 2008. He’s making worse contact on pitches outside of the strike zone (hitting only about 31% of the non-strikes he’s thrown) than he has in the past, but he’s chasing fewer pitches out of the zone, so that’s not too big of a concern.

Want a shocker? In his brief 2008 season, Hafner has the highest percentage of contact of strikes he swings at (88%), the highest percentage of contact when he swings (78%), and seeing the highest percentage of strikes (50%) of his career.

All of that tells us that he’s swinging at about the same rates that he’s always swung the bat, both in terms of swinging at strikes and making contact with strikes and is making better contact when he swings and, more importantly, when he swings at strikes…which he’s seeing more than he ever has.

But, in reality, those pitch and swing statistics (acquired via Hafner’s Fangraphs.com page) don’t get to the heart of the problem with Hafner, which has nothing to do with WHEN he’s swinging or how often he’s simply MAKING contact. To me, it comes down to HOW he’s swinging and HOW he’s making contact as the answer to both HOW’s right now bring to mind one word – weakly.

It looks like Hafner’s having difficulty recognizing pitches and, by the time he decides whether to swing or not, he’s either watching the ball fly by him or he’s waving at it, weakly grounding to points in the infield (the balls he’s hit in the infield is DRASTICALLY up from years past…about three times his 2006 totals). So maybe he is making contact with pitches and swinging at the right pitches…he’s just doing it with weak swings because of late recognition. His Home Run per Fly Ball percentage (how many fly balls he hits go for HR) is down to 12.5% from the likes of 24% in 2005 and 30% in 2006, so the lack of power, when he is making contact, is very disconcerting.

Whether his lack of power comes from him not making an early decision to swing at a ball and not getting much behind the swing or if the “shift” has caused him to overthink his approach as teams dare him to try to hit it down the LF line remains unsolved. Whatever the cause of his lack of power or putting the bat solidly on the ball, the Indians can’t continue to allow his struggles squash run-producing opportunities in the middle of the lineup. Perhaps a move down the lineup will take some pressure off of Hafner; of course, it could just as easily further damage his fading confidence.

At this point, though, the Indians need to remedy this offense and simply giving Andy Marte or Ben Francisco plate appearances isn’t going to serve as a saving balm. The only thing that will rescue this offense is the return of Pronk. Maybe a move down the lineup will release the inner Pronk that the Indians need to solidify their whole lineup. Until Pronk returns and the rest of the lineup can feed off of his productivity, the Indians’ offense will remain as toothless as their DH.

Lazy Sunday with a Pad of Butter

Because we’re on a roll…get it?
OK, enough Stu Scott, right?
Sorry, I’m having trouble containing myself after witnessing two victories over the Bronx Bombers in two nights, with seats for yesterday’s game basically IN the visitors’ dugout…but more on that later.
Let’s take a quick trip around a Lazy Sunday:

Baseball Prospectus is impressed with Cliff Lee’s start, and with pretty good reason. A person who would know tells me that Lee is throwing essentially fastball after fastball (Pluto says it’s 80% of the time), but is throwing it to the catcher’s mitt with alarming ease. For Lee’s next start, watch where the catcher’s mitt starts when Lee goes into the windup and observe how frequently Vic or ShopVac move even an inch…assuming, of course, that Warren Spahn keeps taking the ball for Cliff Lee’s starts.

Pluto also mentions that Sabathia’s mechanics were off and that hitters were able to pick up when his breaking ball was coming because of the delivery. Makes sense to me now as an explanation as to why he wasn’t throwing his breaking ball if he thought people knew it was coming, leading to the trickle-down effect of batters being able to sit there on his fastball and wait to square one up.

Shelly Ocker comes through with something rational and logical today, which makes me wonder if Pluto’s ghostwriting for him. Seriously, though, Ocker has a decent piece on how the Indians’ have taken advantage of revenue opportunities in a mid-sized market to retain their own players and stick to “The Plan”.

It seems that the two injured Tribe pitchers are taking longer than expected to recover. For one of them, I would like to see him back ASAP. For the other, I’m OK with him taking as long as he needs…then waiting 60 days. You can probably figure out which is which.

Speaking of Westbrook, he’s scheduled to appear on a streaming radio show online called “Country Fastball” at 6 PM tonight. Not sure if his injury will be covered, but most Cleveland sports events should be done by then, so it might be worth a listen.

In case you missed it, Atom Miller returned to the Bisons’ rotation in sparkling fashion last week. Truthfully, I could see Miller as a dark-horse candidate to take the next start after Laffey’s on Monday that’s not handled by C.C., Fausto, Lee, and Byrd. The Indians will have a lot of roster shuffling to do, and throwing the big RH in an MLB game may be in the cards for the Tribe. He, like Laffey and Sowers, is on the 40-man, so his option is already being used this year. Let’s see what the kid can do while Jake’s on the mend…why not? It certainly would be interesting to see him against some MLB hitters.

Finally for the LS, what does Pronk mean? Watch away…

Now, back to yesterday, when the DiaBride and I were lucky enough to take in the Victor-y from a dugout suite. To give you an idea of how close these are (and I had only been in one during a Ballpark Tour), check this:


You’re actually closer to the plate than the pitcher’s mound is…no zoom on these pics.
THAT is insanity.

Our seats were essentially behind where the Yankees’ on-deck circle was (which is about 10 feet closer to home than the actual “on-deck circle”), allowing us to be privy to Jeter telling A-Rod (standing on the top step) that Sowers was throwing a cutter in the 1st inning, and to hear every word uttered by the ballplayers as they stood on-deck. The highlight of the Yankees being on-deck in front of us? When Jeets and A-Snob had to move out of the “dirt” track as they waited to lead off an inning for the…Hot Dog Derby. The expression on their faces and the way they sllloooowwwllly moved out of the way of the approaching hot dogs made me hate them more.


We had a great view of the maelstrom that erupted when the ump blew the call at 2B, from Wedge flying out of the dugout as soon as the ump signaled an out, to the Atomic Wedgie running by a screaming Joel Skinner as Wedge waved Skins off, as if to say “I’ve got this”, to Wedge’s eventual glorious ejection.


The highlight, though obviously, came from Grady running right into our kitchen as he scored the go-ahead run and the ensuing celebration on the field.








Today is a perfect time for C.C. to re-establish himself as the de facto aCCe of this team and ensure a series sweep from the Spankees.
Hey, Hey, Hey, Let’s Go Tribe!

If the Left One Doesn't Get Ya...

With all of the hullabaloo about the Indians’ hitters finally finding their bats and Cliff Lee turning into Sandy Koufax, the underappreciated performance of the back of the revamped bullpen (sans JoeBo) has been just as vital in the Tribe rattling off four in a row. In the Indians’ last 8 games, in which they are 6-2, the back end of the bullpen has started to gel with Betancourt finally closing games and Perez and Masa serving as his primary set-up men. With the demotion of Jensen Lewis (whose velocity still sits in what will heretofore be known as “BrodzoskiLand”), the Indians seem to have settled on The Two Rafaels and Mr. Death Ball to close out the 7th, 8th, and 9th in close games.

In the aforementioned 8 games, both Kobayashi and Betancourt have pitched extremely well, with Perez scuffling (albeit ridden hard and often by the Atomic Wedgie)…that is until last night. Going into last night’s game, the back end of the bullpen posted these performances in their previous 7 games:
Kobayashi – 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Perez – 4 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Betancourt – 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Then last night arrives, with the Indians clinging to a lead against that “vaunted” Yankee lineup with more than three innings to go to close out the game. What happened in the 5th inning and beyond last night may serve as the moment that the back end of the bullpen settled itself as Rafael Perez righted himself in a very large and in charge manner (2 1/3 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K), getting an improbable 7 outs with a mere 23 pitches (17 of which were strikes) while allowing only one baserunner.

Following the Scarecrow, Senor Slo-Mo emerged to the sound of gavels hammering down and the crowd being commanded to “All Rise…Betancourt is in Session”. How did the Fist of Steel react to facing A-Rod, Matsui, and Posada with a two run lead? He threw 9 pitches (8 for strikes), retired A-Rod on a weak pop-out, whiffed Matsui, and got Posada to lift a fly ball that Sizemore nestled under for the 27th out.

From the time that Perez entered the game in the 5th, just after Matsui’s HR brought the game to a 5-4 lead for the Tribe, the Fist of Iron and the Fist of Steel threw all of 32 pitches to record 10 outs, allowing only one baserunner via the walk (who was promptly erased via the DP) against the “feared” (notice I use quotes) Yankees lineup.

The dominance from the two of them served as a reminder of how good the Indians’ bullpen was last year and how the fact that The Two Rafaels and Kobayashi have settled into their roles this early in the season (almost immediately after the nominal closer went down with “nothing left in the tank”) figures to play a huge role in the Indians’ defense of the AL Central. As a corollary, the fact that the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning roles have been claimed, the youngsters in the bullpen (namely Lewis and Mastny) can try to find their groove and slot themselves into the 6th inning man, when needed, in low-pressure situations or even allow the organization to audition even younger arms (Stevens, Newsom) for bigger roles on the parent club.

Last night served as a preview of the punches that the Indians’ bullpen possesses, with a Left-Right combination that can’t be matched by many teams.
If you see them coming, better step aside…

Welcome Back!

Let us not forget the last time the Yankees descended upon our fair city:



Meanwhile...


Bring It On...

Tomahawks with an Offensive Juggernaut

What should a struggling offensive team do to fix what ails them? Very simply, head to KC…as the Tribe tallied 24 runs in the first two games of the series to take their first series since the opening series against the ChiSox in Cleveland. With the DiaBride sitting in all of her “Casey Blake is a lot better than you think he is” glory, release the ‘Hawks:
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Let me first give credit where it is certainly due as Casey Blake went 6 for 8 with 6 RBI in the first 2 games of the series after going 10 for 56 (.179) with 10 RBI in the 17 games leading up to them. Now, I’m not going to say that Lacey Cake has exactly proven that he’s worth everyday AB with 2 games (as we all know that he’s prone to these types of games followed by stretches of mediocrity), but I’m off his back for a while.
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How wonderful was it to see our old aCCe back in the fold? Pounding the strike zone, throwing his slider with authority (who said he’s hurt?), and whiffing 11 during 6 dominant innings. Did he throw too many pitches (102 through 6 innings)? Probably, but if that’s what it takes for him to get back into the groove and get some confidence back in locating his fastball and mixing in his slider…throw away, Big Fella.
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It looks as if Jeremy Sowers will actually be making the start on Saturday against the Yankees, a decision that was likely only made after last night’s rain out that prevents Fausto from making his scheduled start on Monday. So, we’ll have Sowers on Saturday and Laffey on Monday (both against NYY in the hopes that two fresh arms from Buffalo won’t overly tax a bullpen that plays two tonight in KC and won’t have an off day until May 5th.
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Speaking of the bullpen, if you want an indication of which relievers The Atomic Wedgie is comfortable throwing in a tight game, look no further than last Sunday’s game, when only Masa Kobaysahi and the Fist of Iron (Perez) were used to relieve Byrd. Sure, Betancourt was up in case the team took the lead, but I didn’t see any other reliever even getting warm. Perez pitching two full innings (and eventually absorbing the loss) shows that Wedge has no faith in Lewis (he of the diminished velocity that still has to “ramp up” – bah), Julio, Mastny, or Breslow. Not having enough faith in nearly 60% of your bullpen to bring them in during a tight game does not bode well for the Tribe.

That progression of Perez, Masa, and Betancourt was further solidified in Game 1 of the doubleheader tonight as the game, particularly after Lewis was pulled after pitching only 2/3 of an inning in the 6th. I have no problem with Kobayashi moving up the ladder and Lewis moving down as their performances to date have dictated the flip-flop, but the Indians are going to need a 4th reliever to step up (as Perez, then Lewis did last year) if they’re going to be able to go any sort of distance in close games.
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Heading down to 3 of the 4 games against those hated Yankees this weekend, so let us all remember why THAAAAA Yankees Suck!

The First Domino

In a surprise move, a starting pitcher for the Tribe hit the DL today…but his name wasn’t Carsten. Jake Westbrook was placed on the 15-day DL with a rib cage strain – this just after going all 9 innings of Saturday’s game in Minnesota without a hint of any kind of injury. In his place, the Indians promoted The Ben Francisco Treat – but it’s not too likely they’ll be asking him to throw every 5th day, so follow the logic on this announcement and what it likely portends.

With Westbrook’s injury, Lee and Byrd obviously move up in the rotation and can pitch with their regular rest this week thanks to Monday’s off day. So the pitching schedule will look like this:
Tonight – Sabathia
Wednesday – Carmona
Thursday – Lee
Friday – Byrd

Saturday’s game against the Yankees (nationally televised, no less) is where the Indians will need a replacement starter for the rotation. As mentioned here previously, Aaron Laffey (who pitched last Saturday’s game for the Herd, the same day that Westbrook pitched against the Twins) has proven by his performance in Buffalo that he should be ready to step into the spot vacated by a starter (surprisingly Jake, not C.C.) due to injury.

Until Saturday, though, the Indians have time to determine what player is not long for the 25-man roster, being effectively replaced by The Frisco Kid today. In effect, instead of promoting Laffey today, the Indians get themselves another position player and (unless Francisco is sent down on Saturday, which I can’t even get my sometimes-circular logic to buy) have about four days to jettison a player on the 25-man roster, either via trade or being designated for assignment.

The two most logical candidates would be Jason Michaels (which was addressed here) and Andy Marte, who the team has shown no interest in playing to this point. If it is indeed Michaels, then I suppose being late to the party is better than never arriving at all. However, if it is Marte, then the Indians’ brass better have some hard data and reasoning as to why Marte was never given more than the 57 at-bat tryout that he went through a year ago before deeming him unworthy of sticking in an organization without many other viable 3B alternatives for this year, and certainly next year after being so universally highly thought of when being traded from Atlanta to Boston, then to Cleveland – all for MLB talent.

Is placing your 2nd best pitcher (thus far this year) on the DL the preferred method of shaking up the roster? Absolutely not, but if the injury brought all of the simmering ineffectiveness to the surface in terms of the team having to make a move, in addition to having the luxury of buying a couple of days to figure out who just drew the short straw, consider the first domino felled.

For now, we’ll hope that Westbrook’s injury doesn’t have the same effect that the oblique strains had on his 2007 season (or that of C.P. Lee last year) and wait, with bated breath, to see how (or is it if?) Francisco is ingratiated into the lineup as well as waiting for the news of which position player is on their way off of the 25-man prior to Laffey’s start Saturday against the Bronx Bombers.

Prognosis Negative

With the offense stuck in neutral and the bullpen still in preliminary stages of an evolution, what’s most frustrating about the last week for Indians’ fans? How about that the Tribe starters (not including the reigning Cy Young winner’s 1 start) have compiled the following numbers over the last 7 games:
49 IP (an average of 7 IP per start)
1.29 ERA
0.90 WHIP
36 K
6 BB
What is the Indians’ record in those 7 starts (again, I’m not including C.C.)?
3-4…with the starters included allowing less than a baserunner per inning, posting a 6 to 1 K to BB ratio, and averaging 7 innings per start.

Their 3 best starters’ respective rankings in the AL in terms of ERA thus far are #1 (Lee – 0.40), #5 (Carmona – 1.96), and #12 (Westbrook – 2.73). Additionally, Lee has the best WHIP in the AL, with Westbrook #12 among AL pitchers. From Lee, Westbrook, Carmona, and Byrd, the Indians have received 12 Quality Starts in their 15 starts….from the #2, #3, #4, and #5 spots in the rotation.

Obviously, the offense and the bullpen are letting this team down in terms of supporting the starting pitching, as they continue to come up short in the runs department or blowing the leads (or ties) handed to them by the starters, who are certainly not struggling.

Not struggling, that is, save one.
I’m going to link this article from Beyond the Box Score again because it comes to an interesting conclusion after proving that Sabathia is not throwing his slider, but takes the next step as to trying to determine why. With the caveat that Sabathia could just have no confidence in his slider and doesn’t want to throw it, Peter Bendix comes up with this:
As much as I hate to say it, there is one potential answer to this question. Let’s say you’re CC Sabathia, pitching in the last year before you are set to earn a bagillion dollars on the free agent market. Perhaps last season, perhaps in spring training, or perhaps in your first start of the season against the White Sox, you feel something strange in your arm or shoulder. Maybe it’s tingling. Maybe it’s pain. Maybe it’s just uncomfortable. But no matter what it is, you only feel it (or it’s exacerbated) when you throw an off-speed pitch. Like a slider. What do you do?
You stop throwing as many sliders. And other teams sit on your fastball. And if you can’t command the fastball (which may or may not have to do with that strange feeling in your arm), you walk guys and get hit hard.

Of course, this is the extreme case of projecting an injury on somebody and, since I’m not in the practice of trying to figure out what’s going on in Sabathia’s substantial head, it’s about as good as I’ve seen thus far in terms of an explanation as to why his velocity is unaffected, but opposing batters have been able to sit on his fastball, wait for it to meander over the plate, and hit it wherever they want.

If Sabathia is truly hurt (and I’m not saying he is, I’m only taking the next step from Bendix’s conclusion), where do the Indians go? As much as Sheldon Ocker would like to see C.C. work out his problems in the minors or the bullpen, it’s fairly obvious that a DL stint may be what’s best for everyone. If that is the case, I don’t think the Indians will blink before the decision to promote Aaron Laffey is made. Laffey’s posted a 3-1 record in Buffalo with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. He’s struck out 18 batters in 23 innings and, in his last two starts he’s posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. Moreso than Jeremy Sowers, Laffey has shown that AAA may be beneath him and that the 23-year-old (turned 23 on April 15th) is ready to, once again, contribute at the MLB level.

If Laffey if promoted, it would bring the 3rd groundball-inducing pitcher into the rotation (with Fausto and Jake) and brings up a greater question – namely, what in the name of the DiaBride is Casey Blake still doing starting every day at 3B?

I’ll get into the offensive struggles of Lacey Cake and his counterparts later, but for a moment consider Blake’s standing in MLB for “Zone Rating”, which is a defensive statistic that measures the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive “zone”. Blake is getting to only 2/3 of the balls hit into his zone, BEHIND Fat Miguel Cabrera, whose range has become somewhat of a joke league-wide.

Meanwhile, Andy Marte, who has been voted the best defensive 3B in his league during his stint in the minors a few times (though he’s never shown much consistency in Cleveland) continues to languish, unused, on the bench. Perhaps Marte wouldn’t represent much of an upgrade over Blake overall, but isn’t his defensive upside enough to merit a chance against LHP, whom he’s had better success against throughout his career?
2007 – Buffalo (AAA)
.827 OPS vs. LH
.748 OPS vs. RH

2006 – Buffalo (AAA)
.894 OPS vs. LH
.730 OPS vs. RH

2005 – Richmond (AAA)
.936 OPS vs. LH
.848 OPS vs. RH

It doesn’t seem so, as Marte has yet to face a LHP this year while Casey LOBlake has posted a .143 BA / .200 OBP / .143 SLG / .343 OPS in the (admittedly small sample size alert) 15 plate appearances that Blake has had against LHP thus far this year. But really, amending the Marte-Blake situation (as obvious of a decision as this seems unless the Indians have ZERO interest in seeing what they have in Marte this year) is just the tip of the iceberg as the guy who’s batted #8 or #9 in the order (as Blake has) is not going to make or break your offense.

No, there’s plenty of blame to go around here when you take a moment to consider how each position (an easy way to compile Dellichaels’ stats) compare against the rest of the AL. I’ll use OPS as the barometer of production and how each position stacks up against the AL:
C - .807 OPS (4th of 14)
1B - .876 OPS (4th of 14)
2B - .558 OPS (11th of 14)
SS - .742 OPS (4th of 14)
3B - .527 OPS (13th of 14)
LF - .629 OPS (12th of 14)
CF -.740 OPS (7th of 14)
RF - .530 OPS (13th of 14)
DH - .713 OPS (7th of 14)

What does all of this tell us?
Well, what we already knew, in that the holes are at 2B, 3B, LF, and RF – all ranking in the bottom four. Of those vacuums, we know that the defense and youth of Frank the Tank and Asdrubal give them a bit of a longer leash, leaving us with the shocking conclusion that…wait for it…Blake and Michaels are playing terribly no matter how you look at the numbers.

Guess what though? While those two are painful to watch, they’re not the real problem as a closer at those numbers shows that the WHOLE lineup is struggling. Even Victor and Garko, the two players having the best offensive seasons thus far (even if Vic’s SLG is just .400!) aren’t outpacing their counterparts in the AL by any great measure. Grady and Pronk have middle-of-the-pack production from the #1 and #3 holes in the lineup and THEIR struggles are hurting the team much more than the fact that it feels like hitters #7, #8, and #9 often look like a free inning to opposing pitchers.

When your main cogs are not producing at any level of consistency offensively, the rest of the lineup (which is really complementary on most MLB teams) becomes exposed and draws the ire of the fans (see my above rant on Casey Blake’s inclusion in the lineup and my piece on Jason Michaels called “One Man’s Trash” for proof of that), merited or not. In reality, when Sizemore (whose OPS over his last 7 games is .540, nearly .240 points lower than Casey Blake’s OPS over the same timeframe) and Hafner (whose .593 OPS over the last 7 games is all of .013 points higher than Asdrubal) are struggling as they are, the whole offense is going to remain in neutral…or worse.

What can fix the offense?
You’d like to say patience, but that runs low when you see that Peralta’s posted an improbable .376 OPS over the last 7 games while sitting in the #5 hole, stranding runner after runner or when you consider that 35 of the 79 runs they’ve scored have come in 4 games, leaving them with an average of scoring 2.93 runs a game in the other 15 games they’ve played.

Improbably, despite those stats, the team stands at 7-12…and not worse.
Thanks to a starting staff (save one big part of the rotation) that has carried the team to this point, the Indians figure to remain in games until the right combination of players can be found to generate some offense.
Until then, however, get used to 2-1 losses in 10 innings.

Lazy CCunday (the C's are soft...so far)

As the Indians’ attempt to take the series in the Twin Cities today after, once again, being shut down by a pitcher that they’ve never seen before, let’s take a twirl around a Lazy Sunday:

Ken Rosenthal weighs in on the “What’s Wrong with C.C” conversation with a piece that was written PRIOR to his clunker against the Motor City Kitties on Wednesday. Jon Heyman from SI does the same. With the national media descending on this story and nobody from the big boys (ESPN, SI, Fox, etc) coming up with anything substantial, can they all just say that they don’t know what in the world has happened to the reigning Cy Younger and move on?

On the local C.C. front, Shelden Ocker comes through with another stellar effort of an article, this one on how the Indians should consider making changes to their roster and their handling of Sabathia (after four, admittedly bad, starts) before 40 games are played.
With four starts in the books, he actually wrote these words on the Hefty Lefty:
“Sabathia's past two starts have been so embarrassingly off the charts it's difficult to know where to begin resurrecting his career. If you're thinking Buffalo, forget it. Sabathia cannot be sent to Triple-A without his permission. Nor are Shapiro and Wedge likely to ask him to accept a demotion. Moreover, he is not about to be replaced by one of Buffalo's starters: Jeremy Sowers or Aaron Laffey. That would require moving someone off the roster.“

Then, after batting around all the recycled theories and writing what is shown above (which, to recap, intimates that the Indians should entertain sending the reigning Cy Young Award winner to the minors after four starts…which makes no sense, Ocker asserts, mainly because someone would have to be moved off of the roster) he comes back with this to finish the article that, “as dark as the near future looks for Sabathia, whatever he is doing wrong for whatever reason probably will be only a faded memory in a few weeks.”Another superb piece from Ocker, who comes up with no real hard facts on Sabathia, outlines what the Indians won’t do (for all of the wrong reasons), then concludes that C.C. will be fine.
Yikes.

But back to coherent thought and actual baseball knowledge and insight on C.C., according to the most in-depth analysis that I’ve seen about the Crooked Cap from Beyond the Box Score (if you click only one link today, make sure this is the one), it appears that he HAS been throwing his slider less, resulting in fewer swings-and-misses for the Big Fella. It goes back to what I said after the Oakland start (and backs it up in a way), but C.C. is pitching differently this year and because he hasn’t been able to command his fastball properly, his pitch mix is off and batters are just sitting, waiting on the fastball that they know he’ll throw with two strikes.

A final link on C.C., a terrific piece of satire from woodsmeister over at LGT (who also mans the Pronk Needs You site), who penned a “press release” from Indians fans saying, essentially, that Tribe fans would like to break off contract negotiations themselves so WE, as fans, can focus on baseball.

On to the LHP that has picked up the mantle for C.C., Jayson Stark thinks that C.P. Lee v.2008 may be “for real”. He’s sitting on a 0.40 ERA with a 0.44 WHIP and 20 K to his 2 BB in his three starts; so (after acknowledging that my eulogy for Cliff Lee’s career was premature) yeah, I’ll go with Stark’s conclusion. This early in the season, I’m more than happy to eat crow on Lee, whose numbers had deteriorated in two seasons to the point of wondering if he was still a viable MLB starter. With the command of his fastball back and with him getting ahead of hitters, allowing him to throw his breaking pitches…ahem…C.C., Lee looks to be returning to 2005 form with a level of improvement that boggles the mind.

In case you missed the ESPN broadcast of the Red Sox-Tribe game on Monday, it included some time with Mark Shapiro in the booth with the ESPN broadcast team, including Orel Hershiser and Steve Phillips. His inclusion for the 5th inning included a “Behind Closed Doors” segment that showed what Shapiro’s day consisted of, as well as showing (multiple times) the Indians’ “Big Board”, which lists all 30 MLB rosters, potential FA after this year, and their own organizational depth. Through the magic of DVR and “pause”, I was able to fancy some looks at how they have the potential FA after this year rated in terms of pitchers and infielders. I’ll get more into those as the season goes on, but I will tell you that C.C. still tops the LH starting pitcher list, just ahead of Randy Wolf. Those particular rankings interest me (that is, the potential FA) because it gives some insight as to what players may be on the Indians’ radar for a mid-season acquisition in the rent-a-player variety, but also to see where the starting pitchers not named Carsten Charles slot in, shedding some light on some other possible targets after this year for a rotation without C.C.

Back to Shapiro in the booth though, there was quite an exchange between Shapiro and former Mets’ GM and resident ESPN village idiot Steve Phillips that the brilliant Fire Joe Morgan perfectly breaks down and should make you feel awfully good regarding how decisions are made in the Cleveland Front Office.

Elsewhere, SI’s Jon Heyman says that the Indians are one of the six teams identified by “club executives” who may actually benefit from the rash of injuries in the early season, as the Tribe is a team recognized for having the deep bench necessary to help teams in this age of “more stringent” drug testing. Whether this means that relievers are going to be in short supply as the season wears on or if players are just going to be bothered by nagging injuries throughout the year, it sounds like people outside the organization see the likes of The Ben Francisco Treat, ShopVac, and Laffey as pieces that just don’t exist for many teams and could play a role in the dog days of summer.

You may notice that I don’t have a lot by way of the beat reporters comments here (for the record, Anthony Castrovince of indians.com is better than the rest of them combined) and really haven’t in a while. There is, in fact a reason for that.
Remember how during last year’s playoffs I mentioned that the beat reporters are fed “notes” from the team that usually shows up in the next day’s paper (something that t-bone confirmed from his days in Sports Information)? Well, here’s where you can find every game’s notes for every MLB team via the MLB Press Pass. Each game has about four pages of notes and contains more information than what is filtered into a beat reporter’s column.
You’re welcome.

On the topic of reporters, Jeff Pearlman (the reporter who famously wrote the John Rocker story in SI many years ago) tells a tale from the Locker Room over at Deadspin (not PG). It’s a fascinating look at the relationship between athletes and the reporters paid to cover them, essentially comparing it to different cliques of children in the schoolyard with very little in common and very little interest in one another. Interestingly, a few days after Pearlman wrote about his interaction with “Will the Thrill”, this exchange between Miguel Tejada and an ESPN “journalist” took place, which certainly isn’t going to help said relationship.

Hopefully, Paul Byrd has found a pharmacy in Minnesota that will fill his dentist’s prescription because it would be nice to leave the Land of 10,000 Lakes tied with the Twins, heading into KC, where the Tribe can make up more ground in the Central…slowly, but surely.

One Man’s Trash

Obviously one game a season does not make - but…boy, did that feel nice and HOPEFULLY will serve as the impetus for some sort of turnaround for this team, both in terms of pitching (the bullpen is still a work in progress and Indians’ Farm Guru Tony Lastoria tells me that Stomp Lewis was hitting 93 MPH last April in Akron, so throw the “his velocity has historically taken a while to warm up” explanation out the window when trying to explain why his MPH tops out at 87 MPH) and to get the hitters to stop pressing. But, as I began, one game doesn’t mean that all of the problems magically disappear, it just makes you feel better until the next game starts.

In the same vein, it’s time to acknowledge what we’ve all said for a while – that Jason Michaels has no place on this team – and start thinking of solutions to the “problem”. Now, for a moment, let’s all forget that Carson Kressley is currently posting a .139 BA / .195 OBP / .167 SLG / .362 OPS line with 5 RBI on the season (this INCLUDES his 2 for 3 night last night with 3 RBI) for the Indians, that he’s not overcoming his offensive deficiencies by playing an outstanding LF, and that he’s ostensibly blocking two youngsters with higher upsides from getting everyday AB for the Tribe…OK?

Remembering the famous “Garbage Barge” of 1987, rather than just moaning about our situation and hopelessness of it, let’s try to figure out a way to get Michaels off of our roster without resorting to the final option, which would be to simply cut him and eat his salary, which I’m not saying shouldn’t be done and very seriously think could happen very soon. But before simply throwing the flotsam overboard, let’s see if we can find a port that we can pull this pontoon into.

Remember, we’re talking about trying to unload a useless piece of our roster, so let’s put some spit on this rotten apple and try to shine him up real pretty so another team might find him useful.

Jason Michaels is, ideally, a RH outfielder who has experienced success against LHP in his career, has the ability to play all three OF positions, and possesses some speed on the basepaths (assuming he can get on). In reality, he is essentially a depth OF or a 4th OF who can augment a LH heavy OF or, at the very least, represent a pinch-hitting option from the right side of the dish and serve as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner for a team.

Knowing then what he is, or what he should be, what teams may actually find have a use for a player like Michaels on their roster or could find some worth in Mr. Perfect?

As promised earlier in the week, let’s take a trip around MLB:
Mariners
Probably the best destination that I can come up with, mainly because the Mariners boast three LH OF (Raul Ibanez, Ichiro, Brad Wilkerson) with RH Willie Bloomquist and RH Greg Norton constituting the team’s OF depth.

Is Michaels an upgrade over Bloomquist or Norton against LHP to perhaps pinch-hit for Wilkerson against a nasty LHP?
Here are their career numbers vs. LHP:
Michaels - .294 BA / .376 OBP / .450 SLG / .826 OPS
Bloomquist - .266 BA / .322 OBP / .362 SLG / .684 OPS
Norton - .225 BA / .306 OBP / .334 SLG / .641 OPS

On the surface, Michaels would be a better option than the current back-up outfielders for the Mariners, particularly given his versatility (Norton can only play the corners and Bloomquist has played only 71 games in CF…about ½ of Michaels’ career 139 games in CF). Given the Mariners’ propensity for trading for our platoon players (Benuardo, who netted the BLC and Asdrubal) or players going nowhere with the Tribe (Jason Dangerously), why interrupt this time-honored tradition of useless Indians finding a new home in the Pacific Northwest? The only speed bump to the deal may be that Adam Jones was included as part of the Bedard deal and can’t find his way to the North Coast in exchange for Jason the Wet…I kid, I kid.

Padres
Anyone else think that Michaels needs to go back to the NL…you know, from whence he came? Maybe sunny San Diego is the place for him to maximize his “Sun-In” use. And, amazingly, Michaels may actually be better than their current starting LF, Scott Hairston, and the team has no real options past him to take AB away from him or provide insurance for him, particularly from the right side of the dish.

Hairston is a 28-year-old who played well for the Padres in his brief stint with the team last year, but (like Michaels) he is what he is. Even if Michaels is an upgrade over Justin Huber on the bench, maybe the San Diego Front Office feel that their second addition from the Indians in the past couple of years could improve the overall depth of their team or even provide insurance for their starting CF Jim Edmonds (age 38) or starting RF Brian Giles (age 37).

Giants
The OF not named Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn on their roster are Rajai Davis (R) , Dan Ortmeier (R), Fred Lewis (L), and John Bowker (L). Surely Jason Michaels would be seen as a better option than ONE of the two right-handed 27-year-old outfielders (Davis and Ortmeier) with 433 career at-bats BETWEEN them. While the amount of career at-bats certainly doesn’t count as the end-all indicator of a player’s value, Michaels had 494 AB in one SEASON.

Certainly the 32-year-old Michaels would fit in better with the Giants’ team concept of starting almost exclusively over-the-hill has-beens (5 of their 8 position players are over 30…and that doesn’t include the injured Omar) than Rajai Davis, who is “only” 27.

Blue Jays
With John McDonald AND Super Joe Inglett taking up two spots on Toronto’s roster, they’ve shown a predilection for offensively-challenged former Indians, so let’s throw another log on the fire. As of today, the Blue Jays’ LF options include Shannon Stewart, who hasn’t posted an OPS over .800 since 2004 and a 40-year-old Matt Stairs.

The 34-year-old Stewart’s game was, at one point, a high OBP and SB; but an OPS of .581 vs. LHP last year show that he’s simply no longer an everyday player. While Stairs had some success against LHP in 2007 (.818 OPS), he does have a .752 career OPS vs. LHP (remember, Michaels’ is .826) and at 40, it’s not as if Stairs is going to show marked improvement as he gets older (unless he’s on the Barry Bonds career arc).

Other possible options:
Mets
The only RH bats off of the Metropolitans’ bench are Damion Easley and Brady Clark. Is Michaels an upgrade over those two? Who knows, but with so many of their players being registered AARP members, if Michaels went to Queens it would constitute a “youth movement”.

Phillies
A return to the “Cradle of Liberty” didn’t make the main list as Jayson Werth is essentially a younger, more productive version of Michaels, making the need for Michaels in Philly not a real pressing one.

Rangers
They count Marlon Byrd as their RH option of the bench to augment the starting outfield of David Murphy (L), Josh Hamilton (L), and Milton Bradley (S). Marlon Byrd to me is just like Jason Michaels, so the Rangers would just be spinning their wheels here. However, since this “spinning their wheels” strategy seems to be their modus operandi, it can’t be ruled out.

Regardless of where he ends up, he’s not going to be in an Indians’ uniform for very much longer if he continues to play as he has. If the Indians can get something for him, all the better; if not, his perpetually wet hair will be missed…by very few.

Punched and Punchless

It takes quite a bit for me to leave my perch in the Mezzanine prior to the 27th out being squeezed at a Tribe game. But watching the reigning Cy Young winner giving up 9 ER in 4 IP while seeing a player (who may or may not be The Big Cat) who was traded by the pitching-starved Texas Rangers (for a AA outfielder named Michael Gonzalez in February of this year, by the by) give up 1 hit through 6 innings while mowing through a toothless Tribe lineup swinging early and often?

Yeah, that will get me out of my seat and en route to the Family Truckster. As I post this, the Indians are coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th and let’s just say that I’m opening my 2nd High Life at home.

If it were one aspect of the team, I would say that a problem and solution could easily be identified; but the starting pitching, the bullpen, and the offense have all played a part in this team looking complacent and, quite honestly, very bad. Night after night, opponents are working their way into situations to score runs as the Indians squander opportunity after opportunity. That formula...um, that does not translate to a lot of wins.

At the risk of throwing an irrational overreaction on the stovetop, it’s time for something to happen – whether it be a message sent to the players by way of a player being jettisoned or roles being changed to change the dynamic on this team…which is simply not working at this point.

Perhaps that means the buffet table gets flipped, perhaps that means that Jason Michaels finds a one-way ticket to Seattle (more on that in a couple of days) in his locker, perhaps that means that the 3B-LF situation is finally rectified to find out if Andy Marte figures into the future.

At this point, who the hell knows?

As serial poster minktrapper says, “what is the cut-off for saying, ‘hey, it’s early’”?
Judging by the effort and results that have been put forth by this team since departing for their West Coast trip, it’s coming up on the horizon a lot quicker than I’d like to acknowledge.
While I remain convinced that this team is talented and is scuffling, it’s getting more difficult to believe that brighter days are ahead with each passing game as this team is getting hard to watch.

Searching for Answers

Not too much to be happy about as the Red Sox scurry out of town, having swiped two games out from under the Indians’ noses thanks to the efforts (or lack thereof) of two different bullpens: “The Borowski Bullpen” and “The Non-Borowski Bullpen”. While the situation with Brodzoski (The Close) has caused much hand-wringing and rising blood pressure on the North Coast and elsewhere, I think that we’ve seen the last of the JoeBo. While a “strained triceps” sounds a lot like “we have no idea what happened to him other than that the guy who threw in the Speed Pitch booth for a Shell Gas card in the 7th inning had comparable velocity, so here’s an injury”, it’s obvious that Borowski has little to nothing left in the tank after years of “grinding it out” and bringing a “warrior mentality” to the mound. Ultimately, his lack of stuff and velocity caught up with him and, unless he’s magically able to suddenly find those missing 7 MPH on his fastball in rehab starts, or through rest, I can’t see a way that he makes it back to Cleveland in any capacity, much less a closer.

Of course, Borowski’s implosion has caused the argument to surface that the Indians should have addressed their tenuous closer situation in the off-season by not entering 2008 with Borowski as their assumed 9th inning option. I suppose there’s something to that, until you consider the options that were out there in terms of available relievers not already in the Tribe organization – Brad Lidge (really, is he a better option, particularly considering he’d be going from the NL to the AL?), Francisco Cordero (who got a 4-year, $46M contract), Eric Gagne (whose last appearance in the AL for Boston didn’t excite anyone outside of opposing batters?), Scott Linebrink, David Riske…you see where I’m going here? Obviously, Mo Rivera wasn’t leaving Gotham and teams aren’t exactly in the practice of putting effective relievers, much less closers, out on the trade market if they think that said reliever is going to remain effective.

So, with few better alternatives available outside of the organization, the Indians went into Spring Training sticking with the closer that led the AL in saves, as terrifying as many of them may have been, with the idea that the other relievers (namely the two Rafaels, the Fist of Iron and the Fist of Steel, because “if the left one doesn’t get you, then the right one will”) could be elevated to the closer role if Borowski struggled at any point.

Now, in Spring Training is where things get interesting and where this whole Borowski thing could have ostensibly been avoided with some preemptive measures. In the past few days, our crack Indians’ beat reporters have reported that Borowski actually injured himself on March 14th in Winter Haven and the Indians effectively hid his injury from the press and protected Borowski from any kind of radar gun that would have exposed the reduction in his velocity.

This, right here, is the moment that the Indians needed to act on this…in Spring Training. The Indians should have shelved Borowski, installed Betancourt as the de facto closer and allowed the rest of the bullpen to shake out through the last couple of weeks of Spring ball, perhaps ingratiating the likes of Perez and Lewis into the progression of relievers that we now see the Indians attempting to establish in the third week of the season.

With knowledge of Borowski’s injury and ineffectiveness that accompanied it, the plan should have had their relievers ready to start the season in these roles, right out of Winter Haven:
Betancourt - 9th
Perez and Lewis - 8th, depending upon who's coming up (LH or RH)
Kobayashi and Julio - 6th and 7th
Breslow - LOOGY
Mastny - Long relief
That’s what we’re looking at today, but instead of those roles being established in Winter Haven, these pitchers are going to have to acquit themselves to a new progression (now in the season, facing the likes of Manny and Youkilis in games that count), something that didn’t look to be a smooth operation last night as both Julio looked lost pitching with a lead and Perez and Lewis seemed uncomfortable in their trips to the mound.

Is anyone really surprised that Borowski’s arm gave out this year?
Not really, given numerous reports of looming arm trouble.

Did anyone expect it to be this early?
Only if you knew that he was hurt on March 14th….which, apparently, somebody (or somebodies) did without acting on it.

So right now, the Indians’ bullpen is forced into the mode of evolving on the fly and hoping that some semblance of a progression can be established before the bullpen sabotages multiple games for the team. The current bullpen (without Borowski) is talented, if generally unproven in the roles that they are thought to fill and there may be other options that present themselves if one of the current inhabitants of the bullpen continually…oh, I don’t know, walks two batters to start the 6th inning with a lead.

Atom Miller is still in Winter Haven but certainly could help at some point, so it will be interesting to see where Miller pitches when he finally makes the trip north to Buffalo. If he’s pitching out of the bullpen for the Bisons, he won’t stay down there much longer than to get used to the routine of a reliever as his arm certainly qualifies as an upgrade over the likes of Julio and Mastny.

Outside of that, the team could look at Aaron Laffey as a reliever (assuming that Cliff Lee and Paul Byrd pitch well out of the Cleveland rotation) if the bullpen casualties start mounting. Laffey, while obviously more valuable in the long-term as a starter, is a groundball pitcher who pounds the strike zone and has good K/BB rates, which could translate into becoming a solid contributor out of the bullpen.

Obviously, it’s a little early to start looking for replacements for relievers that are still beginning the process of settling into their new roles, but the fact that the pitchers are just now settling into their new roles (and not with two weeks left in Spring Training) is an error that the team will have overcome in the early season and hope that it can be overcome before the bullpen puts the team further behind the 8-ball than they are with the suddenly resurgent Tigers (only two games back of the Tribe despite numerous eulogies about 10 days ago) arriving tonight.

At this point, in terms of the bullpen, only one thing is a certainty in mid-April – the Brodzoski (The Close) Era is over in Cleveland, likely never to begin again, and the rest of the bullpen has little time to pull themselves into shape before the season starts circling the drain, sabotaged by a gas can-wielding bullpen.

"Seventy-Nine"

Fortunate enough to sit behind home plate for the Indians opener against the Red Sox, my brother and I enjoyed 8 innings of marvelous baseball at Progressive Field (or was it Fenway Park with all of those Boston fans drowning out Cleveland cheers all night)…you notice I said 8 innings.

One of the perks of sitting as close as we were (really, the best seats I’ve ever been in) was being privy to the exchange of banter between the scouts behind home plate, just to the left of us, checking their JUGS guns and charting pitches throughout the game. I mention this because, as the 9th inning dawned and Brodzoski (The Close) began his warm-up pitches to the “Rocky” theme music, both of our eyes were fixed on the scout with the JUGS behind home plate to see if we could get an indication as to where JoeBo’s velocity was.

After he threw his final warm-up pitch, the scout turned to the rest down the aisle and said (obvious to even the amateur lip-reader), “Seventy-Nine”, dropped his head and shook it.

My brother and I exchanged glances and looked to the Progressive Field radar reading for Borowski’s first offering to Julio Lugo – 81 MPH. I immediately said to him (and this is no lie), “at least we’ll have Grady leading off the bottom of the 9th”.

The ball struck Lugo’s bat and you know the rest of this story.


This one’s going to hurt for a while.

Lazy Sunday Looking for a Pair of Aces

Had you told me Friday afternoon that the Indians’ two aces would look more like a 2 and a 9 (off suit, to boot), I would have called you crazy. But a combined 6 2/3 IP between the two over the last two games, yielding 14 combined hits, 10 combined walks, and 10 combined earned runs have netted a combined 3.60 WHIP and a 16.20 ERA for C.C. and Fausto against that staggering offensive juggernaut, the Oakland Athletics.

I’m not going to dwell on those two (especially after the title of Saturday’s piece combined with the performances of Fausto and The Fist of Steel) in the best interests of my blood pressure; and, remember, I’m the one saying that it’s still early…but this team is playing with no sense of urgency, seeming to go through the motions, whether it be an inordinate amount of walks from the pitching staff or the hitters meekly making outs inning after inning.

Maybe we’re looking at 2006 again, when the players read and believed what was written about them following the 2005 season, believing the press clippings and thinking that they can show up and just win games by virtue of being the more talented team. You may remember that the Indians were 9 games behind the “surprising” Tigers in mid-May and 16 games out by mid-June?

It’s early, it’s early, I know.
But it can get late quick in these parts if someone doesn’t step up and put an end to this detachedness and disinterest emanating from the clubhouse. That someone is usually your best pitcher, who sets the “tone” for the rotation and the team every fifth game. Well, our two best pitchers just laid eggs – and I’m hoping the rest of the pitching staff and the team isn’t thinking that the trail that they’ve blazed over the laast two nights is the path to October…because it’s not.

With that off of my chest and realizing that I’m suddenly putting all of my eggs in Cliff Lee’s basket again on a Sunday to avoid a sweep, let’s take a Lazy Sunday:
Tim Brown of Yahoo.com has a piece that I’ve read probably 15 times as frustration mounted during these Oakland games to remind me that the Indians remain a talented team. It just doesn’t look that way right now.

As the Fausto contract hit the newswires this week, everyone was weighing in with Jim Ingraham offering the best synopsis of the situation.

Also on the Fausto front, Terry Pluto took some time to review the Indians’ philosophy and the players locked into Cleveland through 2010 (and yes the link is page 6 of 13 from Pluto’s article as the boys at cleveland.com remain oblivious as to how to properly include lists or tables on the web). Terry identifies the players working under contracts (with final option years indicated):
Betancourt – 2010
Carmona – 2014
Hafner – 2013
Lee – 2010
Martinez – 2010
Peralta – 2011
Sixemore – 2012
Westbrook – 2010
He fails to mention, though, the players that are still not even arbitration-eligible who COULD figure into the burgeoning “core” listed above.
Notably, those names (with their last year under club control as of today indicated) would be:
Cabrera – 2013
Garko – 2012
Gutierrez – 2012
Lewis – 2013
Perez – 2013
And that doesn’t include the players still in the pipeline who haven’t made an appearance topside yet. All in all, some nice planning by the Tribe brass…of course, considering that these guys can start playing like they ARE one of the top teams in MLB and stop playing just like they THINK they are one of the elite teams.

Tony Lastoria, who is actually IN Kinston (despite the fact that this remains a “hobby” for him and not his livelihood…I think) to watch the K-Tribe, continues to provide exhaustive coverage of the minors. His piece on Kelvin De La Cruz makes me want to check the Captains’ schedule to see what all of the hubbub is about.

Keeping it on the farm, I know it’s a little late to the party, but Indians’ prospect Jordan Brown (he of the consecutive MVP awards in Kinston and Akron) has started an online diary (though he’s only done this first post) which reminds us that these “prospects” that some people obsess over are little more than kids trying to fulfill their dream simply by doing the best they can.

Apropos of nothing having to do with the Indians, two fantastic articles appeared this week in two of my favorite places, Deadspin and Fire Joe Morgan…before clicking, though, be warned that these are not PG, or even PG-13 pieces.
First, Deadspin takes aim at the way that many sportswriters have become as detached as the players they cover, as the people who read their columns have no way to relate to the types of experiences that these guys write about. The column asserts that the sportswriter is no more of a “common man” than an athlete and the lack of shared experiences with their readers makes them no more of a peer of the reader than the players. It’s an interesting look at what people want to read and how they want their information presented to them.

Over at the brilliant FJM, they take an AOL writer to task for his article that “Baseball Stats Mania Rates a Zero”, which basically calls all statistics not called “Batting Average” and “Home Run” stupid and used only by nerds. As they always do, FJM breaks down the article sentence-by-sentence, pointedly exposing the writer while breaking down the old “this is what baseball should be because this is what baseball has always been” argument one glorious one-liner at a time. Whether or not you fully subscribe to the idea of Sabermetrics (and if you visit here often enough, my guess is you at least are aware of it), the breakdown and dismissal of the old, tired argument that people have trotted out for years (“I don’t need stats to tell me what my eyes see”) is absolutely terrific.

Just so we keep this section in threes (because…you know…everything in baseball happens in THREES…ba dum dum), here’s another great article from Deadspin who somehow got ESPN’s Kenny Mayne to sit down with them and answer their questions, despite ESPN purportedly instructing all of their employees to limit their references and recognition of the “blogosphere”.
In completely unrelated news, ESPN announced Kenny Mayne will now be hosting “Around the Horn”…I’m kidding…it hasn’t been announced yet.

With the weather outside feeling more like Cleveland and the Masters’ Final Round going up against Cliff Lee’s ascension to the “stopper” role on this team (yes, this is what I’m reduced to), enjoy a Lazy Sunday giving the “PREVIOUS” button on your remote a workout.
Thank goodness for DVR,