Saturday, April 01, 2006

2006 BP Projections

Recently, I purchased a book that hardcore baseball fans and sabermatricians view as the Bible called “Baseball Prospectus”, who also operates a website. It does, among MANY other things, project (with mathematical theories and historical comparables) what an individual player will do in an upcoming season. While I’m still digesting the AMAZING amount of information that’s contained in the 550+ pages, I thought I would pass along what their projections of the principal Indians are for 2006.

Position Players – BA / OPS / HR / RBI
Martinez - .277 / .808 / 17 / 79
Broussard - .261 / .791 / 18 / 65
Perez - .270 / .846 / 8 / 26
Belliard - .267 / .722 / 10 / 58
Peralta .274 / .807 / 19 / 73
Boone - .261 / .719 / 14 / 57
Michaels -.283 / .819 / 10 / 46
Sizemore .286 / .816 / 19 / 82
Blake - .254 / .754 / 17 / 66
Hafner - .286 / .942 / 33 / 103
The numbers of note here would have to be Peralta’s numbers taking a bit of a downturn from last year, which would be surprising, and the lack of RBI. Hafner is the only regular with more than 100-projected RBI, with Sizemore next at 82. The numbers for Blake and Broussard are decent, but Belliard and Boone’s projected OPS are abysmal.
Of note, Broussard’s numbers are based on 505 plate appearances, which he may not reach and Jason Michaels’ numbers were projected before the trade, so his numbers are reflective of a platoon players’ plate appearances (380).
As I said, I’m still digesting the vast amount of data in the book, but these are the projected numbers for the 2006 position players.

Starters – W / L / K / WHIP / ERA
Sabathia – 13 / 10 / 154 / 1.29 / 3.85
Westbrook – 13 / 10 / 109 / 1.33 / 3.97
Lee – 11 / 9 / 127 / 1.33 / 4.26
Byrd – 10 / 10 / 92 / 1.27 / 4.34
Johnson – 11 / 11 / 95 / 1.39 / 4.51

It seems that the win totals are low in the projections (and not just for the Indians), but the WHIP’s and ERA’s look pretty good for these pitchers. C.C.’s projected ERA would be his lowest since his rookie season as he continues his development as an ace. Westbrook also would tend to be more in the middle of his 2004 breakout year and his 2005 season (4.49 ERA) which means that his production is probably somewhere between those two. They are projecting a bit of a downturn for Lee (though how he won 18 games last year while Millwood won 9 will remain a mystery) and for Byrd and Johnson to post years close to their career averages.
For comparison’s sake, here are the 2005 Tribe starters no longer with the Indians:
Millwood – 11 / 10 / 133 / 1.34 / 4.38
Elarton – 8 / 10 / 75 / 1.53 / 5.08
Compared to Byrd and Johnson (and taking into account the money and years involved in Millwood and Elarton’s contracts), the Tribe’s rotation should perform comparably to 2005.

Relievers – Saves / WHIP / ERA
Wickman – 20 / 1.41 / 3.88
Mota – 3 / 1.42 / 4.54
Cabrera – 3 / 1.33 / 3.93
Betancourt – 4 / 1.22 / 3.56
Sauerbeck – 1 / 1.48 / 4.30
From what I can gather, the projections are more geared toward ratios and comparisons than the “traditional” baseball statistics, particularly for pitchers. As I try to wrap my head around all of these crazy percentages, I’m sure that I’ll get the hang of it. But for now, it seems that the numbers don’t project good things for ANY relievers (Indians or otherwise), maybe lending credence to the idea that putting together a bullpen is really a crapshoot.

Hopefully, you found this interesting. While I, admittedly, don’t understand of the weighted averages that are contained in the book, it is fun to look at what people who do this for a living (or a VERY involved hobby) have come up with for the Indians’ players in 2006.

Opening Night – Tomorrow.

9 comments:

Baltimoran said...

that book is witchcraft, no way a regular doesn't hit over .300. Watch some hoops tonight and stop reading that thing. Lebron is amazing...only 24 more hours

Rockdawg said...

There should be no doubt that Lebron is the MVP of the league after that game yesterday. That may have have been the best performance I've ever seen. If the Cavs need some beef for the playoff run, I just read that Shawn Kemp slimmed DOWN to 290 and is looking at a comeback.
Cy - One of the better nicknames I've ever heard...great Happy Gilmour reference.
That "projections" book should be burned along with all those Harry Potter books....all that black magic is for witches and sorcerers. Imagining PTC reading those things reminds me of myself trying to digest Doyle Brunson's poker books. I KNOW the books are about poker somehow, because I see a bunch of cards in the book, it just seems impossible to put it all together.
Just jamming to a little Phil Collins...Can you feel it, coming in the air TONIGHT!!!
Back to school tomorrow after a week off...

Brother said...

Go Tribe in '06!

T-Bone said...

LET'S GET IT ON!!!

T-Bone said...

as this thing cranks back up at 1230am, boy am i going to need a million cups of coffee at work in... christ, less than 8 hours...

T-Bone said...

seeing MWIMR (my wife is my rock) in a phillies uniform was tough enough, but seeing him hit moonshots in the enemy's uniform is just... urgh.

Baltimoran said...

uuuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhh...at least Grady didn't get hurt

T-Bone said...

Sandy in any other uniform isnt as angering as much as it's just weird, but the Dodgers uni and #25 on him may be the weirdest yet.

T-Bone said...

sorry to abuse this board, but also, be aware that the MLB extra innings is free this week. i took a late lunch today and was flipping through the 6 games that were on, and now have atl/la and det/kc on picture in picture. I LOVE OPENING DAY!!!