Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick...Nothing

The July 31st trading deadline has come and gone with the Indians (and most teams, for that matter) standing pat. One of the bigger trades involved two familiar names as Matt Lawton was traded for Jody Gerut (making a short stay in Chicago for Gerut); but the Tribe, A's, Twins, Yankees, Rangers, and Orioles made no moves today. The Blue Jays were the only Wild Card team to make a significant move, trading John McDonald to the Tigers for a PTBNL on July 22nd (oh wait, they traded him away). The Tigers, interestingly, traded Kyle Farnsworth for a highly touted Braves prospect (despite the fact the Tigers are 3 games behind the Tribe).

While there is disappointment for not adding the needed right handed RF or 1B, it sounds like the "Sellers" are asking for the sun, moon, and stars to make significant moves. The report this morning from the New York Times that Soriano was going to the Twins for Lohse, Bret Boone, and two minor leaguers was probably the most ridiculous one that was circulated. That would be like the Tribe trading Elarton, Aaron Boone, and two minor leaguers for Soriano. Nice work, did Jayson Blair come back to write that article?

While looking at the Wild Card standings and seeing those teams stand pat made me realize that the teams in the hunt for the Wild Card are all "flawed" teams, just like the offensively-challenged Wahoos. So, here are the contenders (assuming that the Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels win their respective divisions) in their current pecking order with a bit of analysis:

• A's - The A's are probably the most dangerous team in the hunt due to their momentum, their tremendous starting pitching, and the fact that GM Billy Beane filled their two needs with the additions of Jay Payton and Jay Witasick after the All Star break. Oakland's offense, though, is still not the strongest. Though the pitching staff can overcome a lot of their offensive flaws, the A's have 33 less HRs, and only 20 more runs, than the Tribe. The A's look like the front-runner, riding Harden and Zito for the rest of the season.
• Yankees - Despite a ridiculously strong lineup, the Bombers were forced to acquire Hideo Nomo, Shawn Chacon, Al Leiter, and Alan Embree (with 3 of the 4 being released by their former teams) to shore up a pitching staff that looks like a Veterans' Hospital. With Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Chien-Ming Wang (not to be confused with the immortal Long-Duck Dong) on the DL, the Yankees are going to have to outslug their way into the playoffs. Unable to add another arm, the Yanks are going to have to go with what they've got on the mound and hope that they can win a lot of 12-9 games (when the Big Unit and Mussina aren't pitching).
• Twins - The injury to Torii Hinter and the struggles of Justin Morneau have made the Tribe offense look like the 1927 Yankees compared to the current Twinkies O. Bret Boone has knocked all of 9 hits (all singles) and 13 Ks since joining the Twins. On a sidenote - this is the same guy that hit 37 HRs in 2001 and 35 HRs in 2003, before the advent of any kind of drug testing; not that I'm saying anything. Santana, Radke, Mays, and the bullpen will be pressured to throw some gems with the way that the Twins offense is producing. For comparison, the Twins have 16 fewer runs, 29 fewer HRs, and 18 fewer hits that the "anemic" Tribe offense. And now Spiderman is gone for 4-6 weeks, which means mid-September is the target return date. Can Kirby Puckett still suit up?
• Rangers - Failing to move Soriano for any pitching help means that the Rangers are going to have to MASH to try to stay in this. Factor in that Kenny Rogers will be suspended for 20 games and Chan Ho Park is in sunny San Diego, and Chris Young will be their "ace" through August, not to mention their only available pitcher with more than 8 starts this season (the immortal Ricardo Rodriguez has 8). Is that enough to discount the Rangers, despite a phenomenal offense (does that sound familiar to any Tribe fans?). If the consensus is that pitching wins championships, why hasn't John Hart caught on?
• Blue Jays - Despite a strong push by this forgotten team, Ted Lilly just hit the 15 day DL, leaving Gustavo Chacin, Dave Bush, and Josh Towers behind the dominant Roy Halladay. Toronto is capable of a run, but seeing as most of their remaining games will come against the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Orioles (with a series at the Jake in late August to boot), the Blue Jays have a tough path to follow to October.
• Orioles - The Orioles' young pitchers have struggled and injuries have mounted for the fading O's. Unless Tejada can pitch from the SS position and Sammy gets back on the juice (allegedly), the O's are on their way down. The O's dropped under .500 yesterday and look like more of a spoiler down the stretch (against the Sox, Yanks, and Jays) than an actual player in the Wild Card race.

Feel any better about the Tribe's chances? With Millwood, Lee, and Westbrook leading to a solid bullpen, the Tribe needs a few offensive players to find their groove to really stay in this.

Combine The Stick's revival, SuperSizemore's hot streak, and Jhon's nice transition to batting higher in the order to the return of Hafner (who is 2nd in the AL in OPS, behind the other-worldly A-Rod) and I like our chances. With all of the negativity surrounding the team, though, I feel like the only optimist in town. I feel like Lloyd Christmas telling Mary Swanson (after being told his chances are "more like one-in-a-million"), "so, you're telling me there's a chance".

Seriously, watching the Baseball Tonight Deadline Special, the focus on the Indians was whether they would be "Sellers", with Steve Phillips saying that Millwood and Wickman were their two biggest chips. Meanwhile, according to Harold Reynolds, Minnesota just needs to add that one big right-handed bat. What!?!

Wait, aren't the Indians one game back of the scuffling Twins? And isn't the Indians' schedule littered with games against Tampa Bay and Kansas City? Why the lack of respect or national attention? It's baffling.

On another note, with the Tribe not making a deal for a bat, Terry Pluto has an interesting suggestion to get a RH bat into the lineup. Call up Ryan Garko (the Sharko), when B-Phil goes to Buffalo to test his "Atomic Wedgie Hitting & Life Lessons", to platoon with Broussard. Broussard has been shredded by left-handed pitching, while Garko's hit .292 with 15 HRs and 60 RBI in Buffalo. Sounds good to me - as always, the level-headed Pluto simply calls it like he sees it.

A win today puts the road trip at 6-4. 16 of 28 games in August against the Royals, Devil Rays, and Tigers.

"So, you're telling me there's a chance"

Goodbye, Joseph Diego

The trade of Jody for Jason Dubois is probably not the kind of splash that Shapiro was hoping to make in his pursuit of a RH upgrade. I doubt that the walk-up ticket lines tonight exploded to see Jason "Let's Hear it For" Dubois (a dime to TB) bat 8th and DH.
But could this move be the first of a few to get this team ready for the home stretch?

Dubois looks like a solid RH minor leaguer who hasn't had much of a chance in Wrigley, blocked in years past by Sosa and Alou, and by his own defensive shortcomings this year. Whether he is this year's Ryan Ludwick/Josh Phelps or can become another Tribe "find" (in the vein of Broussard, or dare I say, Hafner) remains to be seen. We'll have to see how the next few weeks play out before passing judgment on Dubois.

Jody wasn't fitting into the Indians future, with Grady and Coco entrenched in the outfield, and Wedge forcing Blake into the lineup. Add into the equation the strength of the Indians' farm system (offensively) is in the outfield and at 3B, and Jody becomes expendable (and probably marketable as a 4th outfielder). Better to get something for him now before his already long swing gets longer and he is further exposed as a career singles hitter who burst on the scene in 2003 after a new summer "training regimen".

The question now is whether Dubois will be banished to the bench (as Phelps was) in favor of Blake, Boone, and Broussard or if Wedge will give him some AB's. The guess here is that he gets some AB's quick, but at whose expense? The most likely candidates are Blake, Broussard, and Boone; as Dubois is a RF, 1B, and DH (with Pronk pretty entrenched at DH). Blake may be used as more of a 4th outfielder and reserve 3B/1B, with Hernandez becoming trade bait (along with Howry, Broussard, and Blake).

As I said earlier, I think that this is a first small step to re-creating this lineup to compete for the Wild Card. Shapiro sees what he has and realizes the strengths and the deficiencies.

The positions that have been lacking in production all season are 1B, 3B, C, RF, and to some degree LF. Dubois MIGHT be able to fill one of those holes. But with the asking price so high on the established hitters on the market, Dubois presents a nice alternative without disrupting the team too much.

Now, though, I have to convince the bride (whose 2 favorite players are Gerut and Blake) to embrace Dubois for putting on the Tribe uni. It did not go over well that he chose Jody's #9. It was likened to taking the clothes off of a corpse at a funeral.

New links on the right bar to check out at your leisure.

At 2-0 in the 6th, let's get some offense for Millwood tonight. He's earned it.

Gerut for Dubois Trade Analysis

Jerry Crasnick has some interesting thoughts on his analysis of yesterday's OF swap:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2096378

More in the next posting.

At the Break

With the Indians pulling into the station at 47-41, I decided to look at the rest of the schedule to attempt to predict an overall record. If the Tribe keeps up their current pace (.534 winning percentage), we're looking at a 86-76 record. However, as has been noted before, 31 of the final 74 come against KC, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. If we take 2 out of every 3 of those games and play .500 ball against the rest of the schedule (a pretty conservative estimate), the record would look like this:
47-41 Current Record
21-10 Against the dregs of the AL
22-21 Against the rest of the schedule
90-72 Final Record

I think that the 90-72 comes about after a pretty conservative approach. I don't know if that record is good enough to win the Wild Card, but it puts us right there "in contention" (those 2 magic words that the naysayers have been throwing in Shapiro's face since the Colon deal). We have to remember that this is a maturing team, taking steps in the right direction. I'd rather have the team take progressive steps towards the playoffs, as opposed to one big leap (like the ChiSox this year) and be destined to be knocked out in the first round (like the Mariners of the 116 win season). That way, when it's time to contend for the World Series (and not just the playoffs) the team has been through a few battles together, ready for the war.

Since baseball is a statistic driven sport, here's the breakdown, by position, of what we can expect from the Tribe players (assuming they keep their current pace). I kept it to the regulars for position players:
(Numbers shown are Average - HR - RBI - OPS)
C
Victor Martinez
.236 - 16 - 64 - .692
1B
Ben Broussard
.255 - 16 - 65 - .750
2B
Ronnie Belliard
.283 - 14 - 63 - .740
SS
Jhonny Peralta
.297 - 20 - 60 - .874
3B
Aaron Boone
.211 - 16 - 57 - .628
LF
Coco Crisp
.297 - 14 - 60 - .806
CF
Grady Sizemore
.287 - 16 - 74 - .810
RF
Casey Blake
.228 - 18 - 53 - .697
Jody Gerut
.276 - 2 - 20 - .741
DH
Travis Hafner
.319 - 33 - 116 - 1.020

What's alarming about the numbers is how similar they are. Look at how many players are on pace to hit between 14 and 20 homers and have 55 to 65 RBI! Despite different players getting hot and cold, everyone's numbers are very similar.

Biggest Surprise:
The development of SuperSizemore and Jhon has been astounding. Had Peralta been anywhere in the lineup, other than behind Boone and Blake, he and Sizemore (who is driving those runs in from the leadoff spot!) would be on pace to be the second and third run producers on this team. And they began the season as 22 year olds!

Offensive MVP:
Not a surprise, but unbelievable to watch is Pronk (the AL Player of the Month for June AND the Player of the Week for the first week in July). Look at those projected numbers, and if he stays this hot, they could go higher! The only thing that reminds me of Pronk's hot streak was when Joey Belle used the HR Derby as a launching point for his 50 HR/50 2B season. Vive Le Pronque!

Biggest Disappointment:
Besides the obvious choice of Boone's anemic start, The Stick's inability to protect Pronk has hurt this lineup badly. Victor is finally starting to get some consistency, but he's going to have to step it up even more to protect our MVP candidate. His numbers are way off from last year's breakout campaign. Broussard has better numbers (even Boone's HR & RBI numbers are there), while people rail about how we are getting no production from the corners.

Also interesting to see is that the RF platoon of Blake and Gerut is on pace for 20 HR and 75 RBI. Not bad numbers, though it's obvious we need a stick to be in the ballpark of 25 HR and 100RBI somewhere in the lineup.

Tomorrow, we'll take a look at the pitchers.

On another note, Z and Hughes are in the fold, but there's only $6M to get a PG (Daniels is looking for $5M) and a big body to intimidate in the paint. In Danny We Trust?

Enjoy the All Star Game. I watched Bottle Rocket, a classic film (the first one made by Wes Anderson, who made Rushmore) that I TIVOed last week instead of the mockery that is the HR Derby. Thank God for TIVO.

Crawling to the Break

The Indians have looked like a tired team the last 2 nights against Detroit, allowing Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman to turn into Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, circa 1995.

They are in the midst of playing 18 games in 17 days, so there's definitely a reason for it. Maybe it's a good thing that Sticky is the only All Star, so these guys can get some rest (assuming of course they don't use the break for some sort of Vegas bender).

Alex Cora was traded to the Red Sox for a minor league utility INF this afternoon, prompting Brian Tallet to be called up from Buffalo for the Yankees series. The trade is less of a condemnation of Cora's spotty play (he really never got consistent AB's) than it is a statement on the progress of Jhon. Cora was acquired as insurance, in case Peralta wilted under the pressure of replacing Omar (who, coincidentally, may end up in a White Sox uniform before the year is out...and the next 3 years) and to prevent the annual Jelly Belliard August Disappearing Act, but Peralta has responded with a very solid first half and Brandon Phillips is ready to step into the Cora role, to give Belliard some days off.

The move also frees up about $1.3 million this year and $1.4 million next year that can be used in a bigger spot of need. And, I hate to harp on this, but at last night's game (yes, I went, to run my season record to 1-7) there were at least 3 conversations in the Mezzanine about how a RH stick would look great protecting Victor in the lineup. Hopefully the Cora money can be thrown at a RH bat, which looks more and more to me like a Mench or a Wily Mo.

After the All Star Break, expect B-Phil to be called up to play SS and 2B when Jhon and Jelly need a break. Maybe this approach of easing Phillips into the majors will have better results than thrusting him into the lineup under the title of "the next Barry Larkin".

C.C. looked horrible last night, again letting any and everything fluster him and allowing things to snowball around him. Driving home from the game, WTAM was reporting that the Crooked Cap had some choice words for a heckler that were caught on the FSN mikes. What exactly did he say? Then he said all the right things that make you think that he really gets it. That part of the act is getting old for me. If you know what you have to do, how to be an ace, blah, blah, blah...JUST DO IT!

Jody Gerut had some interesting comments after the Tuesday game's attendance of 18,500 regarding the marketing of the players on the team, who are exciting but still may be somwhat of an unknown quantity. Terry Pluto captured the feelings of many Tribe fans in his Wednesday column:
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/columnists/terry_pluto/12064105.htm

I'm still blown away that people aren't coming down to the Jake to watch this team, particularly after the 4th of July Show. I actually heard callers to sports radio asking if there's a chance of getting Omar back and moving Peralta to 3B, then another caller asking if we should try to get Thome. Are you kidding me? Are people in this town THAT clueless about the happenings of the 2005 baseball season. We're not in 1995 anymore, people. Learn about this team and embrace it.

Another Pluto gem addresses what we've talked about here before, Shapiro's trading history:
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/12066335.htm
If you're not getting his e-newsletter, sign up today. It's the only TRUE analysis of the Indians available in Northeast Ohio. Let's be honest, everything in the PD is just game summaries and notes (unless you like Roger Brown's mindless ramblings). In addition to that, I once was having trouble getting the newsletter and sent an e-mail, only to have it responded to by Pluto, who stayed on the case until the problem was rectified.

In response to some questions asked earlier:
Where does Jason Dangerously fit into this team's plans?
I think that he'll finish the year as a starter, bouncing between Buffalo and Cleveland, and will provide some insurance (along with Traber and Tallet) if Millwood (and Elarton) leave. I still think his stuff translates better to the pen (looking mainly at his success of 1st and 2nd time through the lineup), but for now, he's a starter.

Who is the leader (Varitek) of this team?
I love this question. I think that the leader of a team is based more on personality and work ethic than years in the league, strict performance, or sound bites. Current leaders of teams that I can name off of the top of my head are Varitek, Jeter, Tejada, Erstad, Chipper, and Rolen. Most of these guys are GREAT players, but they all have that intangible that makes other players follow them. The risk of just naming your best player your leader is what the Cubs ran into last year when "Cap'n Sammy" alienated the clubhouse and went to Baltimore.

With all of that being said, I would say that of all of the players on the team, Sizemore is probably the most likely to emerge as a leader. Much like Jeter when he broke in, Sizemore will establish himself as a star by quietly leading by example (his hustle, will to win, and enthusiasm). Hafner's goofiness and Victor's antics prevent them from being real leaders and C.C. seems to say everything right, but can never back it up. Give Sizemore another year, and he will have the universal respect of the locker room and will show himself to be the leader of this new Indians team.

Let's take a few from the Yanks.

Keeping It Real Up In The Feel

After the phenomenal series in Baltimore (with an assist to the History Teacher known as the Baltimoran), the Tribe has smoked the Motor City Kitties for the first 2 (assuming that the bullpen can hold them to 4). That brings the 15 game stretch record to 7-1! An unbelievable run by a team that certainly seems to be coming around, in all aspects of the game. Watching Elarton and Davis throw darts today make me think that if we put Cy in a Tribe uni, he might be able to pull off a 5 and fly.

Do Eric Wedge's comments about adding a bat (it sounds like he's OK with the team in the clubhouse) sound eerily close to Coach Norman Dale refusing to put Ray in after Buddy fouls out? "My team is on the floor" may be the model in which Wedgie is working the high confidence in the dugout.

Reading that Alou is unattainable in the PD (reading 4 copies of sports pages in one day more fun than you think), makes me think that Mench (or even Carlos Lee?) may be in the cards for the Erie Warriors. To watch Hernandez, Boone, Blake, and Gerut struggle against seemingly anyone has become painful. The bottom of the lineup presents such a hole that it kills many a rally. If you put that RH bat after The Stick or Gentle Ben, it really strengthens this lineup.

A few amazing stats though (without that RH stick), the team is hitting .293 in the past month, working their way up the charts in runs, average, doubles, and home runs.

Seeing Wickman make the All Star squad was nice, but I still think that Le Pronk and C. Lee could make it if other players beg off participation (or if Kenny Rogers encounters any cameramen en route to Detroit). Sizemore is still maybe a year away from the recognition, but check out the Gammons' article on TB's comments in the last post for some high praise for the Grady Sizemore Show.

I'm working on the Viva Le Pronk jersey. Is he hot enough? 32 RBI's in the last 20 games?!?

Coco just hit an inside the park HR. This IS my team.

Hafner just went yard into Cooperstown, then pulled the curtain call. He is my favorite player on this team. I'll work up some comparisons this week.

The smoke is rising off of the Jake after today. I hope that my boy (the Jake fireworks guy) has enough ammo for tonight.

Ohio is, Apparently, Ours

The Tribe completed a series win against those lowly Reds today to move to 39-34 heading into a tough stretch of games (Boston, Baltimore, NY) before the All Star Break (with at home series vs. Detroit mixed in). The Tribe used the homestand to its favor moving to within 1 1/2 games of the Twins and staying in the midst of the Wild Card (though it still isn't even the All Star Break).

I heard something on the radio the other day that I thought was interesting. They were talking about how 2005 was the target year when the rebuilding project began. A caller said that this is a farce because of the way the White Sox are running away with the Central. But, let's look at where the team is, almost to the halfway point: 5 games over .500. Nobody said that the Indians were going to win the World Series in 2005, just that they would be in contention, and that's exactly where they are. The Indians can't control that the White Sox are on fire, they can't make other teams beat the White Sox. They can only control the games that they play, and recently, have been doing a great job at it. I'm cautiously optimistic about this East Coast trip. I think they will win one of the series against the AL East, but not get swept in any of the series. I'd like to see them go 8-7 leading up to the All Star Break, which would leave them at 47-41 to start the second half. I'd take that.

Some thoughts over the weekend:

• Is there a difference between what Alex Cora is doing for us and what Brandon Phillips could do for us? Cora can't seem to hit but seems to play good defense when called upon. I realize the argument is to have a veteran to help out Peralta, but Phillips seems to have finally turned a corner in Buffalo (named to the IL All Star Team).
• With so many teams looking for relievers and Fernando Cabrera tearing it up in Buffalo, is anyone expendable? What about moving Howry (who's a FA after this year), and bumping Riske into the Howry role, Betancourt into the Riske role, and Cabrera into the Betancourt role? If Cabrera continues to dominate at the ML level, you move him accordingly in the pen. I know that you're not supposed to mess with a good thing, but Cabrera is becoming impossible to ignore.
• Couldn't Casey Blake fill the Jose Hernandez role (1B, 3B, occasional OF) better than Hernandez. The 2 HR night notwithstanding, Hernandez does nothing for me on this team.
• With all of those thoughts, what is the problem with moving 2 of those guys for a RH stick (Kearns) or even throwing in a AAA starter (Cruceta, or even Tallet/Traber) to get a Wily Mo Pena? RF needs to become a productive position, and its not happening with the Gerut/Blake platoon.
• Other possible trade partners could be the Dodgers (they would love Howry, but have little to offer), the Rangers (who would eat up Cruceta or Traber/Tallet, but again have only Kevin Mench to offer) or the Orioles.
• I would like to see Moises Alou added to this lineup (we can black out the 1997 Series from our memory banks, if we haven't already), but I don't know what the Giants would want.
• Nice to see a sellout on Saturday. A 12-7 game in front of 42,000? Did Assenmacher pitch?

As you can see, I've taken a much more optimistic approach to the season. After a conversation with a non-Clevelander who goes to a lot of games (my bride), I realized that I was getting too high and too low as each game was played.

After Thursday's game I was told that, "It's a long season, and it's not even July. The Red Sox are World Champs for a reason, they were better than anyone last year. The Tribe played 2 close games against them and you come home, freak out, say that everyone stinks, and that Hernandez couldn't play in a rec league softball game (I'll stand behind that comment). Just relax. That's what's wrong with Cleveland fans, you WAIT for things to go bad almost like you want them to, rather than focusing on the positive and just saying, 'Oh, well that was a great game. We'll get 'em next time'."

Good advice.

Tribe Record on the homestand with me there: 1-4

Tribe Record on the homestand without me there: 7-0

Anybody want seats in the Mezzanine for the rest of the year?

My Bad

After attending the first full 3 game series of my life (that is, I was at all 3 Red Sox games), and watching the Tribe get swept, I am banning myself for some time from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. I'm 1-5 this season. Maybe going to a Reds game this weekend will change the luck.

With a lot of disappointment (that I'm still getting over) I thought I'd go with some non-game related hits:

• The Indians hats should look like this, http://www.lids.com/pid/20027032. I don't know why there is an "I" on their hats, we're not Indianapolis Indians. I prefer the script "C". The only change I would make to this hat is replace the Chief Wahoo with the old Chief Wahoo logo, seen in the inner circle of this hat, http://www.lids.com/pid/20019893. In fact, that full body Chief Wahoo should replace the oversized red head on the left chest of the home jerseys and the sleeves of all the jerseys as well. So, maybe I spend too much time thinking about this stuff, but this is my team.
• Anybody have any other suggestions for the Indians' unis? Why can't I get a forum to share my thoughts with the Tribe marketing department?
• Watching the new graphics on FSN is confusing and too full of sound effects. I feel like I'm playing a video game. If I wanted to play NHL '95 (the finest game ever made, outside of Tecmo Bowl), I'd plug it in and continue my season with the Boston Bruins.
• Also, if I see that commercial for the BDSSP with Jimmy Fallon saying, "That's not cool, Salley", or the Jimmy Fallon look-alike (with the bad mustache) telling his boss that "perfection takes time", sitting in a b-dubs, I'm going to throw up.
• TB's story about Grady Sizemore is a classic. Why is it that everytime I see Grady on the field, he reminds of the young Moonlight Graham character from Field of Dreams? He looks like he's 12, facing 30 year olds. I'm waiting for Ray Liotta to ask him if he thinks the next pitch is going to be low and away or in his ear. "Think low and away, but watch out for in your ear."
• The Batter's Eye Bar has EXPLODED and is THE place to be during a game, but why not open the two picnic type areas during the game to make it even more of a party atmosphere?
• Looking at the Media Guide, here's a quick question: How many Tribe players, on the roster today, were developed by the Indians?...4! Sabathia and Riske were drafted and Peralta and The Stick were non-drafted free agents.
• That means the rest of the roster is made up of free agent signings or players Shapiro acquired in trades. Which led me to the next question: Finding the cupboard bare when he became GM, who did Shapiro trade to get the current players?...David Justice (Jake), Richie Sexson (Wicky), Jacob Cruz (Gerut and Bard), Russell Branyan (Broussard), Bartolo Colon (Grady and Lee), Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (Hafner), Chuck Kitaen (Coco), and Robbie Alomar (Arthur Rhodes, by way of Matt Lawton). Sure Sexson would look good in a Tribe uni, but the proof is in the pudding. Shapiro has made some great trades to form this current roster. Sure, there are some duds (Scott Stewart for Ryan Church comes to mind), but I'll take that track record.

The sweep at the hands of the Sawx, while disheartening, only shows that the Indians are close; but are not there yet. They're beating up on the teams they should (Rockies, D-Backs), but haven't yet figured out how to battle the really good teams (Sox of both varieties, Angels, and even the Twins). They're on the right track though.

At the beginning of the homestand, I said that 38-35 was the worst case scenario and that 40-33 was the goal. A sweep of the Reds accomplishes the 40-33 and only a complete meltdown (losing 2 of 3 to the Reds) brings about the worst case. The conclusion of the homestand should put the team in a nice place.

With the Reds (and presumably, GM Dan O'Brien) in town for the series, could this be the forum to get a young RH outfielder (Kearns or Wily Mo, who for some reason are both on the trading block)?

I'm working up an organizational depth chart that should be finished soon. With all of the player movement in the minors, I thought it would be good to have an easy place to go to answer the question, "Who do we have in the minors at 3B?"

A Right-Handed Solution?

Mired in a 3 for 36 slump, Austin Kearns was optioned to AAA Louisville by the Reds yesterday, clearing the way for Wily Mo Pena. Could Kearns be the answer to play right field and be the right handed bat that the Indians' lineup lack? Keep in mind that this is the same player that put the kibosh on the Bartolo Colon to the Reds trade (thank God), he just turned 25 (to put this in perspective, Crisp will be 26 this winter, Gerut is 27, Blake is 31, and Broussard is 28)! Kearns has a lifetime OPS of .815 in 304 games, with 43 HR in what amounts to about the equivalent of 2 seasons. Despite being in a slump, Kearns has 5 HR and 25 RBI this year, which would be at the top end of the Tribe 2005 stats.

So the question is: if the Reds were willing to part with Kearns (their outfield of Dunn, Griffey, and Pena seems set unless they move Casey and Dunn plays 1B), what would they want? The easy answer is young starting pitching, or possibly a young 3B. Would the Tribe be willing to part with Traber, Tallet, or Cruceta AND a minor league 3B, possibly Gatreau or Osborn? This may turn into one of those Drese for Hafner deals, where both teams trade from their strengths. If that does happen, I can only hope for a Drese-Hafner redux type trade for the Tribe.

Great game to watch tonight as the Indians beat the Colorado Springs Sky Sox, I mean the Rockies. These are the games they should win though, particularly with a 12 year old toeing the bump for the Rockies.

Left my Broom in San Francisco

Upon completion of their first sweep of the season (Omar's Giants in 3), the Tribe is looking at a favorable schedule over the next two weeks in the friendly confines at Prospect & Ontario. The next 12 games, all at home, are against Colorado, Arizona, Boston, and Cincinnati. Let's say the Tribe takes 3 of the 4 series (and that is the WORST case scenario), they end up 38-35. Let's be honest though, with the state of the Rockies and Reds this season and Boston's pitching troubles, I'm looking for 40-33 coming out of the homestand. It's time to stop scoreboard watching, wondering how long the White Sox can keep this up, and take care of the business in our own ballyard.

Watching the Giants' series was a pleasure. This is how the season was supposed to be: good pitching, timely hitting, an occasional bullpen hiccup (Howry on Saturday night), but solid enough to beat up on inferior opponents. A 7-5 trip is not that bad, figuring in the way that they started in Minnesota and Chicago. Seriously, this team is a Broussard error away from two consecutive sweeps. That being said, it's time for this team to take off, with the starting pitching continuing to lead the way and the lineup producing enough runs to get W's.

I know that one man cannot be to blame for the early season struggles, BUT the Tribe is 6-1 since Murray was fired, and I agree with TB in that multiple career years in 2004 probably unjustly saved Eddie's job. The team seems more patient and more aware of situational hitting. Also, they're finally settling into a lineup that feels right (it only took about 55 games):
CF Sizemore
LF Crisp
DH Hafner
C Martinez
1B Broussard
RF Gerut/Blake
2B Belliard
3B Boone
SS Peralta

The platoon of Gerut and Blake suits me just fine, and an occasional Alex Cora sighting is welcome; but please, no more Hernandez! He's a windmill who's taking up a roster spot. Casey could play 3B, 1B, and OF; Cora can play 2B and SS; that leaves an open spot where someone else (Ludwick?) could take some strain off of the OF's. Send Hernandez to the NL where he can "murder lefthanded pitching" for someone else.

Cliff Lee IS the Indians' All Star, no question. During today's outing, he has never been in a better rhythm and was in complete control (despite Jhon going Ankiel/Knoblauch a few times). He's become a solid 3, at least, with the possibility of developing further. If Lee finishes this season strong, look for the Indians to give him Westbrook money and a long-term deal.

To those Indians' "fans" who were rooting for Omar over the Tribe (there were multiple callers on Friday to radio stations who claimed that Vizquel was "wronged" by the team and wanted to see him exact his revenge), know this: Omar is playing for the Giants because he wanted and took more money and security than the Tribe (wisely) were willing to pay him. When his contract expires, he will be a 40 year old playing SS, while the Indians will be light years ahead of the geriatic Giants. Knowing the way that Omar played his hand to seem like the victim in this whole deal makes watching his team struggle ALMOST as pleasurable as watching Thome not be able to play DH to rest his back (Shapiro 2, Just About Everyone Else 0).

Jason Davis is still not a starter and nobody will be able to convince me otherwise.

I'm trying to design my own #41 jersey with "The Stick" on the back, but it's one letter too long. Maybe a #48 "Le Pronque" or #48 "Shrek" would suffice. The other option is to get #52 with a "CC XL".

C.C. slide was phenomenal. Thank God for my new DVR as the slide was rewound about 10 times.

I appreciate your return to the Diatribe after some time away. Trust this, with all of these Tribe thoughts flowing through my head and the weather heating up, it's on. So bookmark this or mark it down as a favorite, or do whatever you want; because this is starting to get good.

Boom Goes the Dynamite.

Fresh off a Rehab Stint

After a wild week and a half, it's time to talk Tribe (despite the 2-4 start to the road trip). A few thoughts as I've been watching the last few games:

• The Juan Gonzalez thing was a fiasco only in that the media had hyped him up to be the savior of the offense. Had the offense been playing RELATIVELY decently, it would have merely been a blip. It was ridiculous though, to see him pull up lame on his first at-bat! I was watching the game and had just finished saying something to the effect of, "if he could only stay healthy." Manning's reaction was classic with an understated "Oh, no..." as the camera wasn't even on Gonzalez. Manning's always good for an articulation of what Joe Fan is thinking. Even my bride said, "Did that really just happen?"
• It sounds like there's more to this Eddie Murray thing than meets the eye. Ever notice that Easy Eddie NEVER sat with the "Brain Trust" of Wedge, Bell, and Willis (if you can call that triumverate a "Brain Trust")? He was always off near the camera bay with his big head, surly disposition, and great mustache. I don't think he ever got along with Wedge, but was protected by his friendship with Shapiro (Shapiro's father was Murray's long-time agent). The season had reached a breaking point with the offense, though, and changes had to be made. It's not like Luis Isaac (who I think still throws BP) was going to get the blame.
• The loss of Buddy Bell doesn't concern me that much (remember we did OK after he left in the 90's), though I'm still not 100% confident in the Atomic Wedgie as a manager. I understand that the bunt is discouraged in the Moneyball world of the Tribe front office, but NOBODY can execute a simple bunt. One huge difference between the White Sox and the Tribe on offense (both are near the bottom of the AL in team offense) is that the White Sox do the little things to manufacture runs. I know that these are terms heard often, particularly this year, but the series in Chicago could not have made it more obvious.
• I'm becoming more resigned to the fact that the Indians are the 3rd best team in the Central. They were beaten by both the Twins and the White Sox, with a lot at stake this early in the season. All of the games are close, but they don't count ties, close games, or moral victories in the standings.
• I think that changes are still to come. My buddy Dozer thinks that a trade needs to be made to shake things up. But who? Nobody wants Boone or Blake, and I can't see Shapiro trading one of the players who is actually producing (Broussard, Gerut, Belliard), so I don't know what can be done. It's not as if the team is one bat away from ripping through the month of June; the problem is deeper than that. Unless Derek Shelton turns out to be the hitting coach equivalent of Leo Mazzone, I don't see this offense doing a 180 anytime soon.
• To Shapiro's credit, he recognized the need for a RH bat this offseason. Let's go through the checklist and the results: Boone (oops), Gonzalez (ouch), Blake to a long-term deal (oh man). Who's going to be the right handed stick in this lineup? Belliard? Peralta? Everyone is either a lefty or a switch hitter.

That's enough venting for one post, though there's still a lot on the table here. I know that the tone was rather negative, but it's hard not to be when you watch the good ship Wahoo go down like this.

Back in the Saddle

With a week away, I thought I'd get some Quick Hits in:

• At the ChiSox game last Tuesday (which I attended), they drew 18,000! They have the best record in the majors and a 7-0 Jon Garland was going, but fans are more concerned about the woes of the Cubs than they are with the hot start by the South Siders.
• My buddies from Minnesota, who I sat with, still think that the Central will come down to the Twins and the Tribe. The consensus in both camps remains (as it has for over a month) that the White Sox cannot keep this up. WHEN (not if) they fall apart, the Twins are in a great position to barrel right past them. The Indians need to position themselves similarly. As a side note, this conversation did not make us popular guys in the 3rd Base Field Boxes.
• US Cellular Field is located in Beirut. I've never been so scared to walk 500 yards from my car to a stadium (with Chicago's "Finest" in sight at all times) than I was after I dropped $18 to park as close as humanly possible. There were cops on ATV's after the game controlling the crowds! It was like a scene from Mad Max. I was half-waiting for Tina Turner to come over the loudspeakers with "We Don't Need Another Hero".
• True to White Sock Fan stereotype, a drunk fat guy whipped his shirt off in the 8th inning. With his body covered in tatoos, he implored the crowd to get fired up. As the Security Staff came swarming, the crowd egged him on, forcing him to remove his skullcap, then chug 2 full beers. To his credit, he did not charge the field and attack a coach.

Enough about the Sox, on to our beloved Erie Warriors:

• Games from now until June 5th are going to determine a lot about the 2005 season for the Indians in the Central. After 4 against the Twins in Minnesota and 3 more at the Jake with the A's, it's off for 3 game sets in Minnesota, then Chicago. If the Tribe can piece together a hot stretch, they can make up some serious games in the Central, and not continue to be 10-12 games back.
• They've won 4 out of their last 6 series. As I've said before, I don't know if this team is a team that just rattles off 10 in a row, so this is what we're going to have to do- inch our way back into it and hope that the leaders go ice cold. What's needed though is to take 3 of 4 in long series and get one or two sweeps in the month of June.
• We all wondered where Jody Gerut would fit in. As has often been said, things in baseball just work themselves out. With Coco in Baltimore seeing a hand specialist, we'll see if Joseph Diego (Jody) can recapture the success of his Rookie season. So far, I've been encouraged.
• Now we wonder where (or if) Gonzo will fit in, then Ludwick goes shoulder first into the fence. Baseball has a funny way of working this stuff out.
• As was hoped, Davis went to Buffalo. However, they did so to keep him as a starter!?! Hoynes described the Indians' handling of Davis as "unusual". That's being diplomatic.
• I still don't like the makeup of the lineup, but can't figure out what I would like to see as an everyday lineup. C.C batting 3rd or 4th? Any ideas?
• When FSN introduces the Indians' defense, they show a picture of the lawyers of Elk & Elk (those 2 elves from the front of the Yellow Pages) while Hegan says, "let's take a look at the Tribe defense". The timing of it is hilarious.
• The Reds CUT Danny Graves and his mullett after yesterday's meltdown. Who's got the itchy trigger finger over there? Rather than demote your closer to a bullpen pitcher to build some confidence, you just cut him? I realize that he made an obscene gesture to a fan, but this is in the same town that Rob Dibble (he who launched a ball over the center field fence, striking a woman's chest AND attacked his manager in the clubhouse) thrived.

I'll be down at the park tomorrow night. Hopefully it's over 4o degrees. Seriously, it's almost June.

The Reason I Don't Manage the Tribe

After debating whether to make the trip to the Jake last night, WEWS' Chief Meteorologist Mark Johnson (he of the plastic hair and uneasy sense of humor) convinced us not to, because Hurricane Andrew was supposed to sweep across the North Coast. After a 15-20 minute downpour and an hour rain delay, the Tribe came back on the field and hung onto victory against the Jays. Should've been watching Tanchak.

When the game started, the lineup looked like a disaster. I see Hernandez batting clean-up and Ludwick hitting 5th while the Indians are trying to put together a winning streak and get some offensive momentum on a crucial homestand. I think to myself, "looks like Wedge picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue." Then, the Atomic Wedgie makes me look like an idiot as the top of the order goes nuts in the first and Bono Broussard (have you heard his cover of U2's With or Without You?) comes through with the big bases-loaded hit. That's why the Atomic Wedgie and his mustache make out the lineup card, not me.

Westbrook still looked shaky last night, though early errors didn't help him. He doesn't seem to be throwing with the same confidence and at the same breakneck pace as he did last year. Maybe his rhythm is off, or maybe he lacks that swagger that he had after owning the Tigers to burst out of the gate in 2004. But, at least Elarton wasn't on the mound.

JDangerously looked like he was going to let it come unglued, instantly giving up the HR to Rios, then bore down and went 2 1/3 of decent ball. Why Wedge would use 5 pitchers, and sap his bullpen, on the first day of a 5 game homestand is beyond me. Maybe so he could have the cameras on him while his face twitched uncontrollably. But, again, I don't make out the lineup card.

Did you notice that a few of the players singled out in the Things That Can Happen at the 40 Game Mark from Monday - Coco and Bono - went absolutely nuts in the Angels series. I mean, I know they want pub for their new CD, but that was unreal.

So, let's see if I mention the Sub-Mendoza boys again, if we can get the reverse jinx going on them:
I don't think Boone and Blake are long for the Tribe Lineup.
There, let's hope that will get them above .200.

Harold Reynolds said the other night on Baseball Tonight that the White Sox are by no means a lock to take the Central. He said that they will lose 6 of 10 or 8 of 10 at some point, just because of the nature of the MLB season. The Tribe just needs to make sure that they're hot while the ChiSox are not. Watching them beat up on the Orioles though, it makes you wonder if they're ever going to slow down.

The Jody Gerut situation will be an interesting one to watch. While the logical move would be to send a struggling Boone to find his stroke (Gerut to RF, Blake to 3B, Boone to Buffalo), Shapiro is unlikely to send Boone to Buffalo; you have to wonder where else Gerut would find a spot. Unbelievable on a team whose offense has struggled so mightily that it seems difficult to find a position for a player who led the team in RBI's 2 years ago, but that seems to be the case. One option would be to platoon Gerut and Blake in right, but after giving Blake a contract over the winter, you have to think that the commitment would be stronger to Casey. Or, you bring Gerut up to take Ludwick's spot. But Ludwick is a Wedge favorite, so Gerut will probably have to prove his worth in upstate NY. Stay tuned to this as Gerut was obviously upset about the assignment to AAA. He may pull a B-Phil and pout (unlikely) or he may pull a Coco and just mash (more likely), forcing Shapiro's hand.

More tomorrow on a comparison of the potential Free Agent signings of the 2004 off-season vs. the actual Free Agent signings of the 2004 off season.

Time for Some Action

Taking instruction from the immortal B-Real of Cypress Hill, it's time to figure out why the Indians are 12-18 and 11 1/2 games back of the White Sox. I know that I said that I would reserve judgement until we hit the quarter pole (40 games), but something's gotta give.

Things that need to happen now

• Scott Elarton (or as he has been dubbed - "my boy") needs to be given his walking papers. He was picked up off of the scrap heap from Colorado and was a nice story, while certainly never blowing anybody away, but his time has come and gone. Let's call Brian Tallett up from the Herd (where he's pitching extremely well to the tune of 1-0, 2.10 ERA) and let him pitch every 5th. Giving Elarton the ball every fifth game was a message to the team and to fans that the Indians will never rip off more than 4 in a row. Elarton, to me, at best is a no decision; and at worst, a lopsided loss. If Tallett struggles, there are other options at Buffalo, just please no more Elarton.
• Send Jason Dangerously to Buffalo to give him one thing to focus on. It's time for the Indians' brass to decide if he's a starter or a reliever. This kid's getting signals from the Mariners dugout in the Naked Gun. They're coming fast and furious and they make no sense. Call it the Baez Syndrome, they're not sure where he should go, so they just keep him confused. He pitches 1 inning...He pitches 3 1/3 innings...He's a spot starter, etc. Enough. Send him to Buffalo to start or let him pitch in the 8th or 9th inning. My preference would be to make him a reliever in AAA. Let him get comfortable with a routine, get some confidence in a few pitches (not the 8 he tries to master as a starter) and ease his psyche into the idea that this is his future. Call Matt Miller back up to reward him for swallowing his pride and pitching well in Buffalo (2.08 ERA, 3 hits in 4 1/3 innings). There's still enough depth at Buffalo (Tadano: 2.22 ERA in 24 innings, Cabrera: 2.13 ERA with 18 K's & 1 BB in 12 2/3 inning) that if someone goes down, reserves are available.
• The offense is not as easy, though I'm through saying, "It's just a matter of time..." Wedge needs to set a lineup and stick with it. If that means Belliard leads off and plays every day, so be it. Let's get back to Hafner 3, The Stick 4, and maybe Broussard 5. I don't like seeing Broussard batting 3rd. I'll give the offense about 10 more games, and if we're still scuffling - well then,

Things That Can Happen at the 40 Game Mark

• Coco Crisp, unless he improves, will become the 4th outfielder that everyone thought he would always be. He can't hit consistently (particularly for power), he doesn't walk, and his arm is weak. Not your prototypical left fielder. The guess here is that whoever is ready to come back first (Gonzo or Jody G.) will come back to right, Blake will go to left, and Coco will become the 4th outfielder/pinch runner/Ruben Amaro type. I cannot believe that I just wrote that I'm holding a spot in the lineup for one of the Rehabbers, Juan Gone or Gerut.
• Ryan Garko may get a look. Where? I don't know, but he continues to tear apart every level that he plays at (.929 OPS in Buffalo). Maybe he platoons with Broussard, maybe the Indians work him into another position on the farm. Maybe I'm jumping the gun.
• Boone and Blake either need to step up or step aside. I'm not sold on Jose Hernandez playing 3rd, but what about Cora at short and Peralta at third? That would've been a ridiculous premise at the beginning of the season, but when my mom thinks that Boone should be cut, things are close to rock bottom.
• If nothing gets better, Eddie Murray takes the bullet for this team's struggles. I know that last year's team hit like crazy, but something has to change. Maybe Wayne Kirby can bring his batting acumen and huge lips on westbound trek on I-90 to try to save this sinking ship.

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, maybe I'm overreacting, but I can't listen to Hamilton call the play of this team, "just awful, in every sense of the game," and not have a reaction.

They're killing me softly.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part III

Outfield
With the recent move of Juan Gonzalez to the DL, the outfield remains a fluid area, where 4 players will fill the outfield, changing positions according to whether the team is facing a righty or a lefty. The 4 players in question: Coco Crisp, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Ludwick all bring different skills to the table, thus giving different looks to the lineup. Crisp is the prototypical leadoff hitter (with the exception of his limited number of walks and SB efficiency) in that he is a slap hitter with speed and occasional pop. While he does not walk very often, he has proven himself as legitimate MLB player by outlasting the Alex Escobar Experiment and Sizemore's promotion in 2004. Crisp had a phenomenal spring and should continue to grow as a player as he gets a better understanding of base-stealing. His acquisition as a throw-in for Chuck Finley (where have you gone, Luis Garcia?) remains one of Shapiro's great coups. Blake moves to the outfield after a stellar 2004 campaign at 3B. In the spring, he seems to be acclimating himself well to the outfield, both in his throwing and his attitude. After knocking around the minors for many years, Blake got his chace with the Tribe and took full advantage. After the acquisition of Boone, Blake turned it up a notch, forcing his name into any discussion regarding the future of the team. Though he strikes out more than most in the lineup, he is a steady contributor necessary on a team with a limited payroll. Sizemore, who may be the jewel of the Colon theft of 2002, is a promising player who needs more experience to fulfill his potential. Though there is no one area in which he truly excels, he is a solid, hard-nosed player who should be a mainstay for years to come. Gonzalez's move to the DL did not disappoint many, particularly those who felt that Sizemore simply needed more time to acclimate himself to big league pitching (see Martinez, Victor). Ludwick is the wild card of this group as he has never provem that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. When given the opportunity to be in the lineup, Ludwick has produced and gives the Tribe a possible right-handed run producer. It will be interesting to see how Ludwick and Sizemore, two Wedge favorites, are handled IF Gonzalez recovers from whatever ailment is bothering him that day.

The outfield should look like this: against righties, Crisp in left, Sizemore in center, Blake in right; against lefties, Blake in left, Crisp in center, Ludwick in right. How the players, particularly Crisp and Blake, will handle playing multiple positions may ultimately determine is Sizemore stays in Cleveland for a while or is sent to Buffalo for consistent AB's. Also in the mix is Jose Hernandez, who can bring pop to the lineup when any of the outfielders may need a break. The X Factor is Jody Gerut, who burst on the scene in 2003, but fizzled in 2004 with his season ultimately ending in injury. His beginning the 2004 season as the 3 hitter to not being assured a spot in the lineup when he returns is a testament to the depth and strength of this area of the ballclub.

In the minors, Buffalo is stocked with mainly veterans, while Akron is stacked with Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Jason Cooper. Other outfield prospects include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski who will probably start the year in Kinston. Again, this is a deep position for the Indians, one which can be dipped into as trade bait as time goes on.