Tomahawkin' from the Top

Rather than subscribe to the belief that losing a series in Boston means that the Tribe can’t hang with the “big boys” of the AL, I’ll take the contrarian view that the Indians faced the Red Sox best 3 starters (while their best two didn’t see the mound), won the game that their best pitcher in the series started (anyone who wants to join Paul’s Byrdies can see the sidebar for membership info), and had a chance to win each of the first two games in the 9th inning.

At last count, the Tribe went 4-2 against the other 2 best teams in the AL on the road.
I’ll take that every day of the week and twice on Saturday.

Does the series expose some flaws? Sure, but we knew that Grady strikes out a lot and that the platoon of Dellucci and Michaels is not exactly setting the league ablaze.

But, let’s take the series for what it was – a difficult series that didn’t set itself up well (pitching match up-wise) for the Indians against a team that is very likely to be in the playoffs.

With that little confidence boost, let’s release some tomahawks:
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Has anyone heard that Ryan Garko chokes up on his bat with 2 strikes and changes “his approach” to make contact? I JUST heard that. Fascinating stuff.
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It’s time for Lonnie Soloff to come over to Fernando CaBBrera’s locker (which HAS to be Jason Dangerously’s old locker the way that Ferd is pitching) and say, “It looks like that heel injury from last year is flaring up.”
It should be said not a question. It should be a statement.

CaBBrera needs to figure out how he went from a magnificently effective reliever (1.50 ERA in April) to the second coming of Gas Can Graves (11.57 ERA in May). At this point, there’s no way that the Atomic Wedgie can use CaBBrera in a game of any importance (how he was allowed in Tuesday night’s game is beyond me, especially with Sowers pitching reasonably well), so it’s time for Fernando to take a 15-day DL stint, followed by some rehab assignments to get his mechanics back. I don’t care what puts him on the DL (or what the team reports); just get him some help out of the spotlight of a MLB game.
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On the flip side, can we please see more of Raffy Perez? In 5 IP, the kid has 6 K’s and 1 BB, which garners some consideration as the anti-CaBBrera. Realizing, of course, that 5 IP does not a career make, he’s been vicious against LHP (no hits, walks, etc.) and pretty effective against RHP (.690 OPS against).

With Hernandez (please, make it stop), CaBBrera, and Koplove taking up spots in the bullpen, what’s the harm in seeing if Perez can stick as the 2nd LHP out of the bullpen?

While we’re at it, how about giving Hernandez a spot on the coaching staff and call up someone with a chance of being useful – like recalling Eddie Mujica and actually pitching him?
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Has anyone else noticed that STO has a problem coming out of the “Update Desk”, generally coming back with the pitch en route to the batter or with the first pitch having already happened?

Not a big deal. Just annoying.
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Anyone hear during the telecast that Coco Crisp isn’t talking to the Boston media? Add his name to those cuddly characters Milton Bradley and Brandon Phillips as former Indians who have a much higher opinion of themselves than anyone has of them.

Seriously, do you think that the Boston media comes into the locker room dying for a quote from Crisp, only to be regularly crushed when they realize that he’s not talking to them?
How in the world do they finish and article without the words and wisdom of Covelli?
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The pronounced splits for the Tribe OF platoon members were expected, but how about this:
Against LHP
Dellucci - .150 AVG / .190 OBP / .250 SLG / .440 OPS
Nixon - .225 AVG / .283 OBP / .300 SLG / .583 OPS

Against RHP
Dellucci - .248 AVG / .314 OBP / .394 SLG / .709 OPS
Nixon - .294 AVG / .376 OBP / .412 SLG / .788 OPS
How is either of those guys even seeing LHP?

And, surprisingly, the player who has the better numbers (almost against both) is everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Jason Michaels:
Against LHP
Michaels - .279 AVG / .295 OBP / .442 SLG / .737 OPS

Against RHP
Michaels - .265 AVG / .339 OBP / .388 SLG / .727 OPS

There’s no way, with Shoppach and Michaels on the bench that Dellucci or Nixon should see a LHP…ever. Accept each player for what he is, a LH bat incapable of hitting LHP. Allowing either Dellucci or Nixon to hit against LHP at any point during the remainder of the season is irresponsible.
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And what, exactly was wrong with giving Andy Marte some AB’s against LHP to move Blake to RF and give him some looks at some ML pitchers? Fully understanding the rationale of giving the Indians some bullpen depth for the Boston series in case of a 2 inning outing from Lee or Sowers, the seemingly insignificant move has larger ramifications.

The Indians have now used Marte’s last option, meaning that he will go into the 2008 season out of options. And for what? For Mike Koplove to be in the bullpen for the series? For a team so aware of players’ options and service time, it certainly came as a bit of a surprise.

As it looks right now, though, Marte figures to be in Buffalo until later in the season.
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Does the Red Sox pitchers’ effectiveness against the Tribe for most of the series have anything to do with former Tribe front office cog John Farrell being the pitching coach for the Red Sox? You have to think that Farrell has intimate knowledge of all of the Indian hitters and had a pretty good game plan for pitching to those players.

Handing a well-thought-out game plan to the likes of Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett makes good pitchers great.
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Am I the only one cheering for the Devil Rays to beat the Tigers, but not because of the way that it would affect the AL Central race? The D-Rays and Yankees are tied at the bottom of the AL East and nothing would please me more than being able to cut the AL East standings out of the paper with the date attached.

That would be Tampa and their $24,123,500 payroll putting up the same record through nearly 1/3 of the season as the Yankees and their $189,639,045 payroll.

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The posting fee for Dice-K? $51.1M. The Tribe’s 2007 payroll? $61.1M.
Score one for the good guys.
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After a tremendous road trip that further established the Indians as a player in the AL, it’s back to Cleveland for a BIG series against the Motor City Kitties.

I’ll be heading down to the Jake for Thursday (until I can no longer take the fact that I am missing the Cavaliers’ systematic breakdown of the Pistons) and Friday, so I’ll do my part.

Time to lay the smack down on Detroit, from a couple different angles.

Fun with Numbers on a Lazy Sunday

After another clunker by Sowers (where he remains that one pitch away from magically getting out of an inning, instead victimized by that one pitch that becomes a 3-run HR), remember that Westbrook is still probably 4 weeks away from returning; so Sowers will likely have at least 4 or 5 more starts to rectify his issues. If, by that time, no progress has been made, a move to Buffalo is inevitable as the Indians need their 5 best pitchers in the rotation, regardless of past success. Here’s hoping that Sowers can figure out what ails him in Cleveland, which is the best place for him to do so; but with the Tigers not slowing down, the Indians need their best chance to win every night. When Sowers no longer fits into that category, a change will be made. Until then, he’ll be in Cleveland.

Passing the quarter pole last night, I decided it’s time to get into some projections of where the Indians players statistics might end up this year; but before we get into the numbers game, a quick Lazy Sunday:

Paul Hoynes reports that Andy Marte will play against LHP upon his return from rehab, but doesn’t address the reason why. The fear that Marte’s return would take Blake, Garko, or Nixon out of the lineup brought out the “if it ain’t broke…” argument, but Nixon’s performance against LHP (.504 OPS vs. LHP, .838 OPS vs. RHP) and the fact that he’s coming off off-season back surgery became the deciding factors in bringing Marte back to Cleveland, rather than having Gutierrez take those AB vs. LHP. Against LHP, Marte will play 3B and Blake will play RF; while against RHP, Blake will stay at 3B and the Dirt Dog will patrol RF.

Hoynes also touches on the fact that Brandon Phillips doesn’t give interviews to Cincinnati reporters. It’s been well-documented here, but Phillips’ belief that he is destined for enshrinement in Cooperstown, meaning he’s held to a different set of rules makes me happy that he no longer takes up a spot on the Tribe roster, regardless of his performance on the field.

During Friday night’s game, Phillips took off 2nd base with one out as the batter lined an out to CF. Phillips, mid-way between 2nd and 3rd, immediately stopped, took off his batting helmet, and started walking back to his spot in the infield for the next inning as he was doubled up at 2B. Phillips made zero effort to make it back to prevent the inning-ending force out as his arrogance, petulance, and penchant for prima donna behavior showed through in one simple play.

SI.com’s Gennaro Filice (which sounds, frankly, like a made up name) lists Carmona and Sowers in his 5-up, 5-down column.

Apparently, Keith Foulke’s retirement may be short-lived. That is, if you believe anything in a Boston paper.

Finally under the “A Man Can Dream, Can’t He?” ledger, the Rangers’ reporters believe that Texas may have an interest in moving Mark Teixeira. He in under contract until the end of 2008 and is a GIANT bat at a Gold Glover at 1B.

With that out of the way, we’ve officially hit the quarter pole of the season and it’s time to pull out the calculator and make some projections. Using some simple math (and an Excel spreadsheet, but please excuse the way the tables look as Blogger is not exactly easy to import a table into), here is how the Indians’ position players project out over a full season. Since it’s often difficult to figure out how a player is doing regarding RBI or HR or R without looking at the League Leaders, this provides an easier way to look at what the Indians are on pace to do.

With the obvious caveat that this is simply taking the numbers of the players thus far and extrapolating those numbers out, here we go:

Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Sizemore	140	28	80	60	.397	.452	.274	.849
Blake	92	12	68	8	.339	.403	.255	.742
Barfield	68	4	64	16	.252	.304	.225	.556
Peralta	92	36	120	4	.354	.514	.268	.868
Hafner	104	32	116	0	.441	.485	.279	.926
Martinez	84	20	124	0	.412	.508	.328	.92
Garko	68	24	60	0	.378	.526	.328	.904
Nixon	72	8	80	0	.366	.383	.278	.749
Dellucci	68	4	24	8	.293	.355	.243	.648
Michaels	32	4	36	4	.308	.397	.274	.705
Shoppach	28	4	24	0	.371	.449	.275	.82
Marte	12	4	32	0	.221	.333	.179	.554
Rouse	12	0	8	4	.237	.176	.147	.413

Yes, that would be 60 RBI from the LF platoon of Dellucci and Michaels and 60 RBI from Garko. If not for the run production from the C and the SS position, that would be unacceptable. Speaking of the SS position, welcome back Jhonny v.2005!

While compiling the pitchers, something stood out that was shocking – had you told me at the beginning of the season that the Tribe would hit the quarter pole with 3 combined wins from Westbrook, Lee, and Sowers, I would have bought stock in Mylanta. Yet, here they sit, atop the AL Central, on pace for 100 wins with the pitchers that entered Spring Training as their #2, #3, and #4 starters combining for 3 wins.

Here are the rest of the projections for the pitchers:

Player	W	L	ERA	G	SV	SO	WHIP
Sabathia	24	4	3.65	36	0	252	1.22
Carmona	20	4	2.55	28	0	80	1.14
Byrd	12	4	3.49	24	0	92	1.24
Sowers	0	16	7.13	32	0	48	1.63
Westbrook	4	8	7.91	24	0	72	1.68
Lee	8	0	4.15	16	0	48	1.27
Mastny	8	4	3.01	64	0	68	0.94
Cabrera	4	8	4.67	48	0	96	1.62
Hernandez	8	4	4.24	68	0	52	1.53
Borowski	0	8	9.01	68	48	72	1.73
Betancourt	0	0	2.45	56	0	52	1.02
Fultz	12	0	2.03	80	0	44	0.75

Obviously, Sowers isn’t going to to 0-16 (is he?) and Aaron Fultz isn’t going to go 12-0, but how about those 2 horses at the top?

As serial poster Tyler pointed out earlier in the week, the number of appearances for The Big Borowski is pretty high and may be the reason that the Indians look to fortify the bullpen – to take some of the load off of JoeBo’s arm. Remember, he failed a physical in Philly, so that many appearances could not be a great idea.

Those numbers can change pretty dramatically one way or the other, but we’re getting to a point where the sample sizes are big enough in 2007 to make some judgments.
These projections could go a long way in determining what those judgments would be.