Indians Prospect Countdown: System Overview

Well sports fans, it's that time of year again. The clocks have changed, the sun is shining, spring training is in action, there's only a few snowfalls left for the North Coast; it's prospect countdown time. The Cleveland Indians have an…interesting minor league system right now. Four of the top five players on last year’s list are no longer eligible for the list, as Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall graduated to the majors in 2011 and Drew Pomeranz and Alex White were dealt to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jiminez.

The fifth player in my top 5 last year didn’t throw a single pitch due to injury issues (Jason Knapp). So a system that was considered last year to be extremely deep with a few top guys is now more or less just a deep system. The Indians still have a lot of talent in the pipeline, but there is really only one blue-chip guy. They did the best they could to infuse talent in last June’s MLB draft, signing several players to overslot deals including 2^nd round pick Dillon Howard, but there’s only so much a team can do in one draft.

The one thing that really stands out is just how far from the majors most of these guys are. AAA Columbus has a number of quality bullpen arms and a couple of starters that could pitch in the majors in 2012, but most of the talented position players are years away. That means that while Low-A Lake County will be a fun team to watch this year, the cavalry is not on the horizon should something happen at the big league level.

One of the strengths of the system last year than was maintained through to 2012 is the abundance of quality bullpen arms that have the talent to pitch in the major leagues. C.C. Lee, Nick Hagadone, Rob Bryson, Tyler Sturdevant, Bryce Stowell…all of these guys have the potential to be impact arms in the back end of a major league bullpen. As a note, relief pitchers Zach Putnam, Josh Judy, Cory Burns and Adam Miller would have all been on this list if they were still in the organization, with Putnam ranking in the top-15. Even after dealing some of their bullpen depth, the Indians have a plethora of arms to plug into the major league bullpen should the need arise.

Another strength of the system is young, toolsy infielders. Francisco Lindor, Tony Wolters, Ronny Rodrigues, Robel Garcia, Dorssys Paulino, Jorge Martinez…all of these guys are young, raw and oozing with talent. The highest level any of them will play at in 2012 is likely high-A, with some not even getting out of the complex leagues. None of them played a single inning of college baseball. So while these kids are all quite a ways away from contributing at the big league level, it doesn’t take away from the impressive collection of infield talent the Indians have been able to stockpile between the draft and international free agency over the past couple of years.

This is going to be a really, really fun year to follow the Cleveland minor league system. Even with a relative lack of elite, top level talent, there are a lot of guys who are solid breakout candidates. As always, I highly recommend getting out to as many games as you can, because the raw athleticism of these kids is simply not going to show up in the box scores. Francisco Lindor ranging up the middle and throwing a strike on the run to nail a runner by half a step isn’t a category on Baseball-Reference.com. There are so many young, exciting, athletic kids in the system, especially in nearby Lake County, that you really have to get out and see them. There’s a chance that this system could still be in the 20’s overall next year, but there’s also a really good chance that a few of these guys make the leap to become well-regarded prospects and the system breaks out to be back in the top half of baseball.

Because of the young and unproven nature of the talent in the Indians system, it was extremely difficult to rank. I considered about 65 players for my top 51 countdown, and even when I was finally able to settle on the 51, I moved them around quite a bit throughout the process. I’ll be seeing several of these guys for the first time when I head down to Goodyear next week for my annual Spring Training trip, which is something I’m (obviously) really looking forward to. I had a lot of fun putting together this list, and I really hope you enjoy reading it. And yes, you read that right; we’re counting down 51 prospects here at The DiaTribe, not just 50. Much like Kevin Goldstein and his top-11 and top-101 lists, I’m going the extra mile to provide you with the best coverage that your money can buy.

Before we kick of the countdown though, let’s take a look at some of the “bests” throughout the system:
Best Defensive Catcher: Roberto Perez
Best Defensive Infielder: Francisco Lindor
Best Defensive Outfielder: Tyler Holt
Best Outfield Arm: Carlos Moncrief
Best Power: Jesus Aguilar
Best Hit Tool: Francisco Lindor
Best Speed: Luigi Rodriguez
Most Intriguing Prospect: Dorssys Paulino
Deepest Position: Bullpen arms
Shallowest Position: Corner infielders

2011 Top 50:
1.Jason Kipns
2.Lonnie Chisenhall
3.Drew Pomeranz
4.Jason Knapp
5.Alex White
6.LeVon Washington
7.Nick Weglarz
8.Chun Chen
9.Joe Gardner
10.Cord Phelps
11.Bryce Stowell
12.Rob Bryson
13.Zach Putnam
14.Tony Wolters
15.Hector Rondon
16.Alex Lavisky
17.Kelvin De La Cruz
18.Nick Hagadone
19.Scott Barnes
20.C.C. Lee
21.Austin Adams
22.Kyle Blair
23.T.J. House
24.Vinnie Pestano
25.Tyler Holt
26.Josh Judy
27.Jordan Henry
28.Bryan Price
29.Cory Burns
30.Matt Packer
31.Jared Goedert
32.Cory Kluber
33.Abner Abreu
34.Gio Urshela
35.Gio Soto
36.Felix Sterling
37.Jess Todd
38.Kyle Bellows
39.Juan Romero
40.Clayton Cook
41.Bo Greenwell
42.Alexander Perez
43.T.J McFarland
44.Jeremie Tice
45.Cole Cook
46.Preston Gulimet
47.Chris Jones
48.Zach McAllister
49.Matt McBride
50.Roberto Perez
So check back tomorrow for prospects 51-45, and every day for the next 10 days as we countdown to number one.

Not Far Away

The Boston series last week made me think about the makeup of this Indians' team, and its similarities to the World Champs of last year. The Red Sox relied on strong starting pitching, a solid bullpen, a few run-producers, and role players to win the Series.

This year, the Tribe's starters have been great and the pen has been spectacular. Take the fact that the minors are LOADED with young arms, and you've got to think that the blueprint for the success of this team in the long run was seen in the Red Sox run to the title last year. If you think I'm overestimating the young arms in the minors, look at the Tribe Depth Chart to the right. Francisco Cruceta, a major Dodgers prospect when he was acquired for Paul Shuey (who had a couple of starts in Cleveland last year), recently lost his spot in the Buffalo rotation! Watching Cabrera blow through the Tigers tonight makes me feel good about the quality of arms in the bushes.

Back to the comparison at hand though. Looking at the Red Sox lineup, there had a few "great" players, in Manny, Ortiz, Damon, Varitek, and (one could argue) Cabrera. The remainder of their lineup was Millar, Bellhorn, Mueller, Roberts, and Nixon. Nice players, but none will set the world on fire.

This Tribe lineup is not far away from a younger version of the Sox. Take Hafner, Sizemore, and Victor as the next Ortiz, Damon, and Varitek (though Victor has a higher offensive upside). The Tribe is lacking one more big stick (the Manny - though there's really only one Baby Bull) and the continued development of, say a Jhonny Peralta, from being on the cusp of something big. The Baltimoran pointed out that Coco is a part of this future, that "everyone doesn't have to hit 35 homers", and he couldn't be more right. There's nothing wrong with Broussard, Belliard, Blake, and Coco as role players on this team - solid grinders that will get on base and give quality AB's. That leaves 3B and RF to add that final piece of the puzzle, whether it be this year or not.

That's what is so exciting about watching this team mature this year. The Indians of the '90s were a collection of VERY talented offensive players, who were very fun to watch. But the "All Star at every position" strategy never brought home a WS Championship (it won't in Texas either, Mr. Hart), becuase there was no pitching!

The way that this team is built begins with pitching. That's why this blueprint is going to work. It doesn't hurt that the team is hitting .297 and averaging 6 runs a game under the new hitting coach. I see it. You see it. When will Cleveland catch on?

Prospect Update

With the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft happening today (which I've never heard anyone refer to as their Christmas), I thought it would be interesting to see what the Tribe's Top 10 Prospects, as determined this off-season by Baseball America, are faring in the 2005 campaign.

1. Adam Miller RHP - Currently on the DL in Kinston, with an eye for a return in the near future. This 20 year old, whose fast track to Cleveland has hit a little road bump, needs to prove that he is healthy before continuing his seemingly obvious trip to Jacobs Field.
2. Michael Aubrey 1B - Also currently on the DL in Akron after playing 27 games, hitting .288 with 4 HR and 19 RBI. A modestly impressive OPS of .816 shows that Aubrey can certainly hit, if he can only stay healthy. BA's timetable of a midseason call-up to Buffalo with an eye to challenging Broussard in 2006 may be premature.
3. Franklin Gutierrez OF - AGAIN, currently on the DL in Akron after playing 44 games, hitting a paltry.238 with 3 HR and 17 RBI. His OPS, a miserable of .694 (though not bad when compared to some in the Tribe lineup) may be an indication that Gutierrez tried to play through pain unsuccessfully. Again, he may still full need another full season in the minors before challenging the mighty Coco Crisp (wait, what?).
4. Brad Snyder OF - Hitting .274 in Kinston, with 5 HR and 24 RBI is less than what the Tribe expects from this former 1st round pick, who continues to develop rather slowly. The hope is that his body will fill out, transforming him into a corner outfielder; but it doesn't look like that's happened yet for the Ball State grad.
5. Jeremy Sowers LHP - The 2004 first rounder has impressed at Kinston, with a 7-3 record and a 2.63 ERA. He's also punched out 65 batters in 61 2/3 innings while posting a 1.04 WHIP. Look for Sowers to move up to Akron as the season goes on and the parent club dips into the minors for some help.
6. Fausto Carmona RHP - Currently 4-4 in Akron's rotation, posting a 3.89 ERA and the opposition hitting .262 against him. Though still only 21, his fast track has hit a snag in Akron, where he's spending another year. If Buffalo loses someone in the rotation, look for Carmona to get the call-up, but some feel that his stuff may translate better in the bullpen for the future.
7. Fernando Cabrera RHP - The last man out of the pen in Spring Training has pitched like a man possessed in Buffalo, posting a 5-0 record, a 0.84 ERA, 43 K's in 32 IP, and an improbable WHIP of 0.91! He's doing it as the set-up man for Jake Robbins, so he's not ready to close just yet. But those numbers are hard to ignore. Cabrera's monster start in Buffalo gives the parent club some options to possibly move a bullpen piece for some offense (more on that later). Cabrera should be in Cleveland at some point before the All-Star break. Does anyone else get Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona mixed up, or am I the only one who lies awake at night trying to remember which is which?
8. Ryan Garko C/1B - His right handed stick continues to mash, though at a lesser pace than last year, compiling 8 HR and 28 RBI in 52 games. His average of .250 could certainly use some work, but his OPS of .786 keeps him in the discussion. The big problem with Garko is that he is blocked at the ML level by some long-term contract players. He is first a C (The Stick), then a DH (Le Pronk), and finally a decent 1B (Broussard). The Tribe brass will struggle to find a spot for Garko, but let's hope that his hitting forces his bat down I-90 into a spot (right-handed, no less) into the lineup.
9. Nick Pesco RHP - Currently 6-4 with a 3.45 ERA in the Kinston starting rotation, Pesco has adapted well to High A hitters and should tag along with Sowers on the path to Akron as the season progresses.
10. Andrew Brown RHP - Brown has disappointed in Buffalo, going 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA. There are other arms in Buffalo who have passed Brown up in the pecking order for a bullpen arm, notably Kaz Tadano and Chad Zerbe (a lefty).

Having impressive seasons thus far, but missing from the list from each level (AAA to High A) are:

Buffalo - Jake Gatreau, 3B, who was acquired for Corey Smith from the Padres in a swap of 1st Round Busts. All Jake has done is hit .295 with 11 HR and 30 RBI, while posting a .891 OPS. While the Aaron Boone Experiment (good name for a band) continues, Gatreau is blocked; but keep your eye on this 3B.

Akron - Dan Denham, P, who is 4-2 in Akron, with a 2.98 ERA and the opposition batting .198 against him. Denham, a former 1st round pick, may find himself leap-frogging some of the pitchers listed above if he continues his solid year.

Kinston - Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, is another purveyor of the hot corner in the bushes who is impressing early on in the 2005 campaign. Hitting .346 with 9 HR and 45 RBI in 49 games is not even the most impressive stat. His OPS tops the 1000 plateau, sitting at 1.014! With Akron's offense struggling, Kouzmanoff shoud get the call to come up north soon.

In response to What Can Be Done of yesterday, I ran across an interesting trade proposal from the Indians Compendium (http://www.insidethecomp.blogspot.com) a couple of days ago. He writes:
The Phillies Get:
RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez
The Indians Get:
2B/3B Placido Polanco
All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Makes sense to me, but staying up to watch the Tribe play the Padres until 1AM doesn't. Looks like Casey Coleman will have to let me know the results at 7:40.