Farewell, Hal

Hal Lebovitz passed away today, at the age of 89.
The "Man in the Know" was the grandfather of Cleveland sportswriting.

It is a loss for all of Cleveland sports fans.

Getting to First Base

With the FA’s available not exactly knocking anyone’s socks off, let’s take a look at what could be available in the trade market for 1B (in order of preference):
1) Lyle Overbay - .276 – 19 – 72 - .816
With Prince Fielder ready for the majors, Overbay will probably be stroking doubles somewhere other than Miller Park in 2006. Honestly, though, he may be only a slightly better version of Broussard, a gap LH hitter with a nifty glove. Is it worth giving up prospects for another Broussard?
2) Sean Casey - .312 – 9 – 58 - .795
There WILL be an odd man out at SOME point in Cincinnati with Griffey, Dunn, Casey, Kearns, and Pena all fighting to play 4 positions. If this is the year, the Tribe may have an interest in the odd man. Casey, a Tribe product would probably like to return to the North Coast, but is he that much of an upgrade, with his dwindling power numbers? Or will the Reds continue to inexplicably hold onto too many position players, while their pitching staff continues to struggle?
3) Shea Hillenbrand - .291 – 18 – 82 - .792
Whether Hillenbrand is on the block or not remains to be seen. With the Blue Jays new ownership wanting to make some splashes in the FA market, they’re unlikely to move an established player. I put Hillenbrand on this list to compare an “established major leaguer” to the numbers that Broussard put up (shown below and in less at bats) in 2005.
4) Tino Martinez - .241 – 17 – 49 - .767 (in 303 AB)
Tino, if he decides not to retire, would fit the bill of a veteran presence in the lineup and the clubhouse that many decried as lacking in the final week of the season. With the Yankees likely to pick up his 2006 team option as insurance against another “tumor” attacking Giambi’s pituitary (what would cause that?), he probably won’t be available (why would they pick up his option only to trade him?) but this might be the kind of player added to the Tribe for the 2006 season, much like Easy Eddie Murray and El Presidente brought some veteran savvy to a very talented 1994 team for the 1995 campaign.
5) Matt LeCroy - .260 – 17 – 50 - .798 (in 304 AB)
LeCroy is a nice stick (and looks a lot like Wickman), but his glovework at first (or lack thereof) would probably prevent LeCroy from donning the Chief in 2006.

For comparison’s sake:
Broussard - .255 – 19 – 68 - .771

So, what are the options presented to the Tribe? Here would be my Plan A and contingency plans:
Plan A: Platoon Broussard & Garko
Terry Pluto called Garko the best young hitter in the organization, putting him in a class with the likes of Sean Casey, The Stick, Brian Giles, and Manny Ramirez as great homegrown hitters. He said that the ball jumped off of Garko’s bat at AA Akron much in the same way that it did with the aforementioned players.
Keeping both Broussard and Garko allows Garko to take a break against tough RH pitchers as he adjusts to the majors and gives the Tribe some insurance (Broussard) if Garko fails to make the transition to 1B, not to mention a late-inning defensive replacement. All indications in the Arizona Fall League are that Garko’s hitting in the minors is far from an aberration and his glove may be adequate. As the year progresses, if Garko proves himself to be a competent major leaguer, Broussard can always be moved.
Plan B: Platoon Broussard & Blake
Ugh.
Plan C: Plug Acquisition (see above) into #6 hole
None of the names above excite me enough to merit trading some prospects for what may or may not be much of an offensive upgrade.

I think that the organization is high enough on Garko and realizes that Broussard is not the “lost cause” that many people think because of his streakiness to go with Plan A as listed above.

Broussard is certainly not the long-term answer, but may serve as a bridge to Garko, much like Paul Sorrento did in the mid-90s, until the young Stanford grad gets comfortable enough to establish himself as another “core player” for the Tribe.

Next up, the trade options that may be out there for RF, the most likely spot for that “Big Bat” to solidify the lineup.

122 days until pitchers and catchers report. After Sunday’s debacle in Baltimore (thanks go out to the Baltimoran for taking his patented “jinx” to the game), it’s time to start the countdown.

A Good Listen

Terry Pluto's thoughts on the 2006 Tribe are available through a podcast. As usual, his comments are well-thought-out and take all the factors into consideration when discussing the off-season and the 2006 season.

Going Shopping

Available Free Agents with 2005 Stats:
First Base / BA / HR / RBI / OPS
Paul Konerko / .283 / 40 / 100 / .909
Tony Clark / .304 / 30 / 87 / 1.002
Dmitri Young (TO) / .271 / 21 / 72 / .796
Travis Lee / .272 / 12 / 49 / .757
Kevin Millar / .272 / 9 / 50 / .754
J.T. Snow / .275 / 4 / 40 / .708

Ben Broussard / .255 / 19 / 68 / .771

The drop-off is obviously pretty big after Konerko, with Tony Clark (who the D-Backs did a favor by signing this past year) rating as the second best 1B available. Somebody (hopefully not the Tribe) will overpay for Clark because of his 2005 campaign, one which is not likely to be duplicated. The Tigers hold a team option on DaMeatHook, though I’m not sure he would work in Cleveland because of his poor fielding. Lee and Snow represent two veteran players who are good defenders who can spell a 1B who may be a defensive liability (Garko).

It’s interesting to see how our boy Benny stacks up against this list - not too badly. Though his streakiness causes many headaches, Broussard is a solid defender and did knock in nearly 70 runs, not facing left handed pitching. I’m not saying he’s the answer, but brace yourself (because Konerko is likely to command top dollar, probably from the ChiSox) for the possibility that he may be back in a platoon with either Garko or Blake at 1B. What this FA list essentially tells us is that the answer at 1B isn’t on the FA market. The solution will come either via trade or from within.

Outfield / BA / HR / RBI / OPS
Brian Giles / .301 / 15 / 83 / .906
Reggie Sanders / .271 / 21 / 54 / .886
Juan Encarnacion / .287 / 16 / 76 / .796
Jacque Jones / .249 / 23 / 73 / .757
Preston Wilson / .261 / 10 / 43 / .772
Jay Payton (TO) / .267 / 18 / 63 / .769
Jeff Conine / .304 / 3 / 33 / .777

Casey Blake / .241 / 23 / 58 / .746

A couple of nice names at the top of this list, though Giles and Sanders are unlikely to leave San Diego and St. Louis, where they’ve grown comfortable. I would love to see Reggie Sanders come to Cleveland on a 1-2 year contract, but I think that the Redbirds will get the first shot at him. It’s also not likely that Giles would leave a comfortable situation in Southern California, unless the money is REALLY right. Encarnacion, Jones, Wilson (though he was hurt), and the others may not be that much of an upgrade over our Iowa farmboy. There certainly isn’t that “big RH stick” here that will miraculously solve all of the Tribe’s problems.

Shapiro has recently been talking up Blake as an adequate #9 hitter, hitting 20+ HR and knocking in some runs. So much so, that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Casey keep a starting role (1B or RF) or become a “super-sub” playing nearly every day. Again, like at 1B, the immediate answer doesn’t jump off the page at you.

Starting Pitcher / W-L / ERA / IP / WHIP / BAA
Kevin Millwood (R) / 9-11 / 2.86 / 192.0 / 1.22 / .300
Paul Byrd (R) / 12-11 / 3.74 / 204.1 / 1.19 / .301
Matt Morris (R) / 14-10 / 4.11 / 192.2 / 1.28 / .315
Jeff Weaver (R) / 14-11 / 4.22 / 224.0 / 1.17 / .305
Jamie Moyer (L) / 13-7 / 4.28 / 200.0 / 1.39 / .331
Esteban Loaiza (MO) (R) / 12-10 / 3.77 / 217.0 / 1.30 / .318
Scott Elarton (R) / 11-9 / 4.61 / 181.2 / 1.30 / .315
Jason Johnson (R) / 8-13 / 4.54 / 210.0 / 1.34 / .328
Brett Tomko (R) / 8-15 / 4.48 / 190.2 / 1.37 / .329
Joe Mays (R) / 6-10 / 5.65 / 156.0 / 1.56 / .361

Also Available:
A.J. Burnett (R) / 12-12 / 3.44 / 209.0 / 1.26 / .312
Jarrod Washburn (L) / 8-8 / 3.20 / 177.1 / 1.33 / .330
Kenny Rogers (L) / 14-8 / 3.46 / 195.1 / 1.32 / .323
Tony Armas Jr. (R) / 7-7 / 4.97 / 101.1 / 1.52 / .355
Ted Lilly (L) / 10-11 / 5.56 / 126.1 / 1.53 / .348

The thinness of this list has a two-fold effect on me:

1) It makes the Indians’ efforts to re-sign Millwood that much more important because of the limited number of impact pitchers available through FA this off-season.

2) It makes me think that the market for Millwood (who is clearly the best available pitcher) is going to spiral out of control in a hurry.

Don’t you think that the Yankees and Red Sox (or even teams like the Blue Jays and Tigers who are looking to spend money this off-season) are sharpening their pencils right now to get a shot at Kevin Millwood? What’s their alternative? Jason Johnson or Matt Morris? Burnett and Rogers (attitude), Washburn, Armas, and Lilly (injuries) don’t interest me. But neither do Tomko, Johnson, and Mays (performance)! That leaves 7 attractive starting pitchers hitting the market at a time when (as always) pitching is at a premium.

All it takes is one team. We learned that with Manny and the Sawx and Thome and the Phils. All it takes is one team wanting to make a splash or wanting to “send a signal to their fans” to take Millwood out of Cleveland. Either that, or The Boss sinking another $40M into the pinstripes.

The alternatives, were Millwood not to sign, would be to lock up Byrd or Moyer (or even Loaiza) to a 2 year deal or go after Elarton (who is eminently signable). Let the Tigers go after Matt Morris (more damaged goods to join Percival and Ordonez) and let Weaver stay on the West Coast. Bottom line, the FA starting pitching market all starts with Millwood, and we should hope that the Tribe is in on those discussions to the bitter end.

LOOGY /G / IP / ERA / BA vs. LH
Chris Hammond / 55 / 58.2 / 3.84 / .164
Mike Myers / 65 / 37.1 / 3.13 / .158
Scott Sauerbeck / 58 / 35.2 / 4.04 / .162
Terry Mulholland / 49 / 59.0 / 4.27 / .202
Mike Stanton / 59 / 42.2 / 4.64 / .235
Buddy Groom / 47 / 41.0 / 4.83 / .244
Joey Eischen / 57 / 36.1 / 3.22 / .250
David Weathers (TO) / 73 / 77.2 / 3.94 / .265

The ever-popular LOOGY (Lefthanded One Out GuY) is one that is usually the last to be filled, but can have dire consequences (see Paul Assenmacher vs. Scott Stewart). The Tribe may fill this one from a bunch of LH arms in the minors (Tallet, Traber, Stanford, Zerbe, etc.) because players like Hammond and Sauerbeck like to pitch in the NL, where their role is expanded. An interesting name on the list is Terry Mulholland, who is a former Featherhead. Despite the fact that he’s probably 55, he can be used in the role of a LOOGY or of an innings eater.

Closer / S / ERA / WHIP / BAA
Bob Wickman / 45 / 2.47 / 1.26 / .310
Bob Howry / 3 / 2.47 / 0.89 / .237
Trevor Hoffman / 43 / 2.97 / 1.11 / .274
Billy Wagner / 38 / 1.51 / 0.84 / .229
B.J. Ryan (L) / 36 / 2.43 / 1.14 / .284
Braden Looper (TO) / 28 / 3.94 / 1.47 / .345
Todd Jones / 40 / 2.10 / 1.03 / .276
Mike Timlin / 13 / 2.24 / 1.32 / .319
Tom Gordon / 2 / 2.57 / 1.09 / .272

As I’ve said before, the dominoes on this one all start with Wickman. If Wickman wants to come back, you weigh signing him vs. signing Howry vs. bringing someone else in. If Wickman wants to retire, you weigh re-signing Howry vs. going after a B.J. Ryan or Tom Gordon (who are still going to cost a ton, in guaranteed years and money). Only one thing is for certain: the closer next year will have closer experience. Shapiro has gone on record that he would not give the closer role to someone who has never closed before.
But it all starts with the Sticky One.

The Free Agent period is always a kind of poker game, but expect Shapiro to bring some serious chips to the table to bring continuity and strength (again) to the pitching staff. The offensive help will probably come through other avenues.

Next we’ll take a look at players who may be available via trade for these same positions (with one of the offensive needs likely being filled via trade) and what players on the Indians’ roster may be expendable or attractive to a trade partner.

Enjoy the playoffs, where I’m throwing my weight behind the Cardinals (though we all saw what 150 lbs., soaking wet, did for the Tribe this season).

A Look Back Before the Look Ahead

With the October rain falling on the North Coast, it presents a good opportunity to look at that main cog of the off-season – Free Agency. To look at Free Agency, I thought it might be best to take a look back at the past off-season to gauge Shapiro’s success and see if it lends any clues as to the direction of the team entering the 2006 season. Here’s a comparative look at the FA’s that Shapiro considered (or the player the Indians ultimately used in certain spots, namely OF – Grady/Blake instead of Gonzalez – and SS):

Player W-L ERA WHIP BAA
Millwood 9-11 2.86 1.22 .248
Clement 13-6 4.57 1.36 .260
Lieber 17-13 4.20 1.21 .263

Again, the list shows that Shapiro had the right FA pitchers targeted in the off-season, and essentially hit the jackpot by giving Millwood a one-year, incentive-laden deal. Clement’s season took a nosedive after getting hit in the head by a line drive, while Lieber proved to be a steady presence in the Phillies rotation all year long.

I would expect Shapiro’s targets (in case Millwood moves on, of course) would be similar to a Clement or Lieber, in that they would be expected to play a large role in the stabilizaition of the pitching staff for 2006 and beyond. The FA starting pitching crop is thin, but we’ll look at that in a future post.

Player S ERA WHIP BAA
Wickman 45 2.47 1.26 .247
Benitez 19 4.50 1.37 .229
Percival 8 5.76 1.20 .207
Hermanson 34 2.04 1.10 .222

There can’t be much debate on the prudence of re-signing Wickman for 2005. Though most people thought that giving Benitez or Percival a long-term deal seemed like a safer bet, that couldn’t have been further from the truth. The fact that San Francisco and Detroit are stuck with their perpetually injured closers, while the Indians maintained the flexibility with a one-year deal with Wickman (plus getting the best results) is hard to argue against. I threw Hermanson in here because his name was bandied about as insurance for Wickman. It turns out that Howry was more than adequate in that role.

Where Shapiro goes in this spot for 2006 becomes a set of dominoes, set to fall once it’s determined whether Wickman will return. After that determination, the Indians will go through a check-list to fill that back end of the bullpen and hope for a repeat of 2005.

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Sizemore .289 22 81 .832
Blake .241 23 58 .746
Alou .321 19 63 .918
Burnitz .258 24 87 .757

I wasn’t sure whether to include Grady or Casey in this comparison, since Grady was called up initially when Gonzo got hurt in Spring Training, but would have been called up once the deficiencies of Casey Blake reared their ugly head. There’s no question that Sizemore is the best player on this list (at 23, no less). In fact, Tom Verducci ranked Sizemore 6th in his MVP race in the latest issue of SI (Pronk was 3rd).

The RF position will be the most intriguing of the off-season, as I expect Ryan Garko (who is one of 6 Tribe prospects to hit the Arizona Fall League) to be given every opportunity to win the 1B job in Spring Training. Whether that means Bono Broussard is non-tendered or not, I’m not sure.
But back to RF – Blake certainly isn’t the answer, which means that the Indians will target an OF with a big stick to shore up the bottom part of the lineup, either via FA or trade..

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Peralta .292 24 78 .886
Omar .271 3 45 .691

Any questions?


So, after looking at the almost universal success of the past off-season, we can only hope that it serves as a harbinger of things to come in this off-season. We all know the decisions to be made and the holes to be filled, so next we’ll take a look at what’s available – first through FA, then through possible trades. I wish I could figure out how to put a table in this blog so the stats aren't so confusing.

Also, I’ll compile the 1st Annual Tabbies (in honor of Pat Tabler) to recognize some of the top performers of the 2005 Indians’ season.

Some new links on the Baseball Sites Section of the sidebar dealing with MLB contracts. The Hardball Dollars link is especially interesting.

Welcome to the 6 months of the year when living in Ohio is like living inside a dirty milk carton – always cloudy.

Wait 'Til Next Year

As much as I hate those four words, that’s what we have to look forward to after Sunday. And, there is quite a bit to look forward to. This young Indians team took some huge steps this year, finishing the season with 93 games, and narrowly missing the playoffs. So, despite the hanging heads in the picture, there’s a lot of talent and potential here (particularly with the four players pictured).

By the way, the Red Sox just took it on the chin from the AL Central Champion. Feel any better about the weekend? Me neither. But I digress.

The “core” that was talked about for so long has not only taken shape in one season, but the cement has started to harden.

“Core” position players under the Indians control for at least next year include: Vic, Grady, Pronk, Coco, and Jhonny. That happens to be 5 out of the 9 players in the lineup, and also happens to be the top 5 in the batting order. Throw in Boone and Belliard (whose option may not just be picked up, but may be negotiated for a longer deal with the Brandon Phillips situation as it is) as complementary players and you’re looking at a strong team. The weaknesses, as has been mentioned here since about June are 1B and RF, but more on that later. The strength of this team is the youthful talent converging at the right time to create a very competitive offensive team.
“Core” pitchers under the Indians control for at least next year include: C.C., Lee, Westbrook, Betancourt, and Cabrera. Obviously, the holes and needs are bigger and more obvious with the pitching staff, but Shapiro did one whale of a job this past off-season, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t do it again. The rotation needs to be filled in and the back end of the bullpen needs to be finalized, but the maturity and growth that C.C., Lee, and Jake showed as starters this year were above and beyond most expectations.

With all of these positives on the table, it’s time to look at the question marks, in order of importance to the 2006 incarnation of the Indians:
1) Is Kevin Millwood’s health bankable enough to be given a 3 to 4 year deal?
Millwood proved his worth his weight in gold by winning the AL ERA title and, more importantly, teaching the Indians’ young starters how to prepare to pitch, how to handle adversity, and how to be professionals. Shapiro will make a pitch to Woody, but the question is whether the Indians will guarantee a 3rd or 4th year in a contract that will probably be worth $8-$10 million per. The track record shows that the Indians will lean heavily on the advice of their medical and training staff (they thankfully wouldn’t guarantee the latter years of Thome’s deal because of health concerns), but the re-signing of Millwood would be a big boost to the fan base. It’s the age-old question: Do we do what’s popular or what makes sense? Shapiro has shown that he does what he thinks makes the most sense. ESPN.com is reporting that the Tribe is planning on offering a long-term deal, so priority #1 may be resolved, for better or worse, relatively soon.
2) If Millwood is not brought back, what do the Indians do with Scott Elarton?
The FA starting pitching market is dreadfully thin, so if the Tribe misses on Millwood, they may sign Scott Elarton (his agent is Shapiro’s father) and throw a young gun (Carmona, Sowers, Davis, or Guthrie) into the mix as the fifth starter. Regardless of who the Indians sign (Millwood, Elarton, or another FA), I think that their fifth starter will be a rookie, to break him in with the hopes that he would progress along the same path as Lee and Sabathia did. Scott Elarton was a nice pitcher for the Indians this year and would come at a reasonable price, but the preference (obviously) is to sign Millwood, thank Elarton for his performance in 2005, and wish him congratulations on the 2006 payday he earned himself.
3) What About Bob?
The Indians bullpen decisions start with which Bob to sign (Wickman or Howry) as both will command closer money on the open market. We all saw last year how an unsettled back end of the pen can destroy a team early in the season. If Wickman wants to return, and according to MLB.com, he does, Shapiro will probably give him another 1-year deal and slot the rest of the bullpen accordingly. If Sticky wants to go the northern woods of Wisconsin to live the High Life, Howry will be approached with a 2 to 3 year deal with closer money involved. Once the closer role is determined, look for Rhodes, Cabrera, and Betancourt to slot in accordingly in the 6th, 7th, and 8th. Andrew Brown, Riske (if he’s not traded), Matt Miller (if he’s healthy), Jason Davis, and Kaz Tadano will battle to join a left-handed specialist (probably not Sauerbeck) to fill out the pen. But, as we learned in 2004, you start in the back of the bullpen and work your way up.
4) Which of the Filler B’s is Gone?
The lack of offense from 1B (Broussard/Hernandez) and RF (Blake) proved to be magnified in the final week of the season, causing the seemingly apparent to become painfully obvious. With Boone and Belliard in the fold for 2006, one of those positions will be upgraded via FA or trade. Looking at the available FA at both positions and the prospects at those same positions, the Indians can play this a couple of ways. They can platoon Broussard and Ryan Garko (who has just mashed in the minors) at 1B, and acquire a RF via FA or trade, allowing Blake to fill the Jose Hernandez role for 2006. They can package Broussard (with Riske and Brandon Phillips?) for a RF and bring in a veteran 1B (J.T. Snow?) to push Garko in Spring Training. They can sign or acquire a big bat at 1B (Konerko, Overbay) and let Blake play another year, until Brad Snyder or Franklin Gutierrez are ready. They can sign or acquire a big bat at RF (Encarnacion, Floyd, Mench, Trot Nixon, Giles, Jacque Jones) and hand Garko the 1B job. And so on, and so on. There are a lot of possibilities for these two positions. The one certainty is that on Opening Day 2006 you won’t see Broussard at first AND Blake in right.
5) Which Prospects become the Grady and Jhonny of 2006 and which ones are expendable for trades?
Hot Prospects: Andrew Brown, Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, and Ryan Garko
Expendable: Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie

Those are the questions off of the top of my head for the off-season. There’s more, but The Office is about to start and, with the Tribe season over, I can finally enjoy Arrested Development, The Office, and Lost when they happen on not via TiVo.

For those of you who thought that The DiaTribe would take an offseason, realize this: There is no offseason - unless your name is Alan Trammell, Jack McKeon, Jim Tracy, or John Hart.

I’ll try to convince one of the most passionate Cavalier fans that I know (he owns a Mark Price old school jersey) to start one of these forums for the Wine and Gold. As soon as he is convinced, I’ll pass along the address, as long as the DiaTribe remains the active and passionate forum that it has become over its inaugural season. Thanks for a great season and let’s enjoy the offseason.

Disconsolate

After 3 straight days at the Jake, surviving only on hot dogs, peanuts, and beer, I’m drained. So much of the energy and optimism that results from a great season will unfortunately be tainted by the final homestand. I can’t even think about it right now.

At least Wickman is coming back.

More to come in future DiaTribes on the final week, a look back at the season, and what promises to be a busy and exciting offseason. Right now, I need some time.

Don't Stop Believin'

Rather than becoming Debbie Downer (which I was referred to on the drive home from the Jake last night) and touching on missed opportunities: playing the White Sox "B" team, lack of execution and clutch hitting, and conveying the general feeling of being nearly inconsolable after the game last night; I've decided to focus on the positive and what the Indians still can do.

Right now, it's time for this team to dig its heels into the ground and put up a fight. Most people forget that this team was given up for dead in late June, only to go on an epic tear through the second half of their schedule. They did so with stellar pitching (rotation and bullpen) and timely hitting. The pitching has been there all year, so now it's time for the hitters to go on a bit of a tear. It's time for these young players to take off the training wheels and go flying down the block for the first time, displaying that devil-may-care attitude that put them in this position. It's October, fellas, the month that you work so hard for all year long to see.

The Atomic Wedgie always talks about how this team is able to separate games very well and not dwell on past games, instead only focusing on the business at hand. Well, here's the business at hand:

• If the Indians win the last 2, they force (at least) a play-in game for the Wild Card. By virtue of the Yanks and Sawx playing each other today, one has to lose. An Indians victory today would make them tied with Saturday's loser. The Tribe could then go into Sunday's game and either win the Wild Card straight out (if either the Yankees of Red Sox lose two in a row) or go into a series of playoff games created by scenarios that Matthew Broderick from WarGames is still trying to figure out.
  

Bottom line: The Indians need to win their last two games to put some pressure on the AL East teams for the playoffs. If they split the last two, they'll need some help. But all is not lost.

Am I as upset as you about this team limping to the finish? Moreso, but it's not time to dwell on the mistakes and the missed opportunities of the past week. The Tribe is still in control of their playoff future, it's just that now they've painted themselves into a corner and are in need of some high-wire theatrics to get out.

I'll be at the Jake today - cheering on this exciting team, praying for the dice to roll in our favor, and trying not to throw up from the nervous pit that seems to have replaced my stomach.

Complete Control

Or do you prefer Cruise Control...or Captain Control...or the Crooked Cap? Whatever moniker you want to use for our hefty lefty, C.C. was absolutely dominant tonight. Benefitting from some early fireworks from Pronk, Jelly, and Jhonny Cool (who broke the Indians' all-time HR record held by Woodie Held), C.C. pulled his cap on and went to work. He dismantled the Rays lineup, striking out 9 and spreading 5 hits over 8 strong innings. I think that we should have dealt him for Adam Dunn at the deadline, don't you? C.C.'s turnaround lends some credence to the belief that C.C. wasn't far away from being dominant when he struggled earlier this year. After a few tweaks to the mechanics and streamlining his delivery, C.C. has been an ace. There, I said it.

The offense woke up early tonight, though the reliance on the longball and the lack of hitting with runners in scoring position still worries me. But those worries are for another day, because the Erie Warriors took care of their business tonight.

Hafner's night (3-4 with a HR and 2 RBI) gives hope that his "slump" (for Pronk, at least) is over and he's ready to go nuts on White Sox pitching again. He was only a triple away from the cycle. Anyone who's ever seen the triple he hit in Minnesota last year to complete the cycle was hoping he would go hauling around the bases again tonight. He looks like a fullback rounding second: wide-eyed, a little out of control and very scary.

The White Sox clinched the AL Central today, which means a few things:

• The Indians are now only competing with the Yanks and the Sawx for the Wild Card. Seeing as how they're playing each other this weekend, scoreboard watching will be pretty easy at the Jake. I'm not sure how I'm going to be able to root for either of those teams this weekend, but whatever it takes.
  
• The White Sox have nothing really to play for in this weekend's series. I'm not completely sure how home field advantage works, but the White Sox have very little incentive to give it their all this weekend. They may even set up their rotation for the playoffs. The way it stands right now, the Tribe is scheduled to face Buehrle, Garland, and McCarthy (not Contreras, thank goodness), but that could certainly change if Ozzie thinks that he's going to retire after the season.
  
• The ChiSox SHOULD be celebrating tonight in Detroit, meaning that there could be a bit of a hangover for Chicago in Friday's game. I hope that Johnny Blackout is planning on hanging out with a few South Siders tonight.
  

You can't say enough about the starters this year (Elarton's stinker on Tuesday notwithstanding) because the Indians are in EVERY game. Regardless of whether this team plays fundamental baseball, or great defense, or hits well in the clutch - the Indians' pitching staff has kept the team in virtually all their games.

Yankees up 8-4 in the 9th, Red Sox down 4-3 in the 8th.

Go Blue Jays!

Remember it doesn't matter how you get there, as long as you get there. Let's get there, Wahoos!

Seth McClung

Seth McClung...Seth McClung...Seth McClung...
Wild Card
Red Sox
92-66 -
Indians
92-66 -

AL Central
White Sox
95-63 -
Indians
92-66 3.0 GB

4 Games left. They are killing me. Seth F'n McClung...

Kickstart My Heart

Despite the picture shown in the previous post, we're going to heed Monty Python's famous advice to "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life". Tuesday's game was a gut-wrenching thriller, as the Tribe couldn't punish Kazimir for putting guys on, then came up a bit short in the 9th.

As one of the 23,000+ (who, despite the small number, were very loud and very into the game), I sat there in the 9th, with the Tribe down 2, and looked at the scoreboard to see the hitters for the bottom of the 9th. My thought was that if Coco and Peralta got on, it could set the scene for some Jake magic with Pronk at bat. Alas, after Coco and Jhonny Cool did their part, Pronk grounded out (Peralta mowing down Lugo was the only thing that prevented the DP) to break all of our hearts. But wait, The Stick keeps things alive, so the always loose Jelly Belliard just needs to put one in the air to score Gutierrez from 3rd. No sooner had I said, "As long as he doesn't hit into a DP", did he hit into a DP. It was like the air had been let out of the Jake. Disheartening? Yes, but not enough to kill my enthusiasm and positive vibe. It may be enough for the jinx (yours truly) to contemplate skipping Friday and Saturday's games (for which I have tix), but not to put a damper on Indians' Fever.

Luckily for the Tribe, all four principals in the race lost as well, with the ChiSox leaving 22 RUNNERS ON BASE (!) in their loss to the Motor City Kitties. I thought Blake leaving 5 on was bad. Oh wait, that is bad. Can someone please find for me MLB leaders in Men Left On Base for 2005. I've tried in vain now for two weeks, and I can't find it anywhere. Blake has to have a double digit lead in that category. Even the wife (who used to count Casey as her favorite groaned last night, "Why does he always come up in these situations", right before Blake whiffed) has taken notice.

A few positives out of last night's game:

• Fernando Cabrera looks untouchable at times. I've recently heard a few broadcasters compare his impact to what K-Rod did a few years ago with the Halos. Just remember where you heard that first.
• Broussard coming off the bench for the perpetually ineffective Jose Hernandez and lacing one down the RF line. If Benny can get hot now, look out. I know that we're facing 2 lefties (Fossum & Buehrle) in our last 5 games, but that could mean that Benny becomes a factor late in the game as a PH.
• Not necessarily related to last night's game, but did you know that Barry Bonds has 708 HR? He's 6 away from Babe Ruth, and it doesn't even get a mention locally. To me, that's good news.

By the way, you can't help but get jacked for a game by sitting in the Jake as The Crue's epic Kickstart My Heart from Dr. Feelgood (you know, right before Without You on the LP)blasts to start the game
Ooh, yeh
Kickstart my heart
Give it a start
Ooh, yeh, baby
Ooh, yeh
Kickstart my heart
Hope it never stops
Ooh, yeh, baby

Let's hope that tonight we don't need a kickstart from a broken heart.

OH NO!

Hitting newstands tomorrow:

Ouch...

Grady losing the ball in the sun today allowed the Royals to sneak away with the last game of the series. A meaningless win for the Royals, a huge loss for the Tribe. I understand that the Indians aren't going to win every game and that it's difficult to sweep a four game series (particularly on the road), but this game frustrating in that it was winnable.

Victories by the White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox put the Tribe 2 1/2 back in the Central and only 1/2 game up in the Wild Card. Since the Yankees and the Red Sox play Monday (while the Indians have a day off), the Wild Card race could conceivably be tied at the end of Monday night. That means that a six game stretch will decide the season.

It's time for the Tribe to come home, rest up for the Rays series and take care of the business that they can control.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

Train Kept a Rollin'...All Night Long

With the wife and the laptop back on the North Coast, here's some tomahawks coming from Chief Wahoo:

• At 91-63 after Friday's win, the Tribe has 8 games left, 2 vs. the Royals, 3 vs. the Rays, and the last big 3 against the Pale Hose. The way that the other contenders are playing (and who they're playing) makes me think it's probably going to take this team going 6-2 to ensure a spot in the playoffs. That means - take the last 2 vs. the Royals, and 2 of 3 in both the Rays and Sox series'. Watching this team go after it, though, I think that 97-65 is very possible. Think about that - 97-65 to ensure a spot in the playoffs! If someone predicted that in April, I'd like to buy you a plane ticket to Vegas to hit the Mandalay Bay sports book.
  
• The last two games have shown the resiliency and overall depth of this team. Lee and the Crooked Cap came out and threw two clunkers (for them, at least), but were picked up by the offense (who simply refuses to concede a lead at any point) and the bullpen (Howry's hiccups notwithstanding). The Indians are playing with such confidence that no deficit looks unsurmountable and every inning offers hope of putting more crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
  
• Of course, the monster that is responsible for putting a lot of those crooked numbers on the board is Pronk, who is absolutely murdering the ball. Look at these numbers, in his last 26 AB's he is hitting .462 with 7 HR, 18 RBI, 3 doubles. Plus, he has a OBP of .576 and a SLG of 1.385, computing to an improbable 1.960 OPS over that same stretch (which includes the games against Garcia, Buehrle, and Garland in Chicago)! For comparison's sake, that LF for the Giants with the giant head has an OPS of 1.813 for the same timeframe. It's time for some Vote Pronk for MVP signs to appear at the Jake. Hafner has put the Tribe on his ample shoulders and could carry them all the way into October. The only question these days during his at-bats isn't whether he's going to see at least 20 pitches, or hit a bomb - but rather, how many buttons are not done going down his jersey. At this point the record is 5, and I'm waiting for him to stride to the plate with his jersey completely unbuttoned.
  
• Speaking of Pronk, I caught a Tribe Time bit called Pronkspective, when Jeff Phelps interviewed Hafner, asking him questions about the couple of days after he got beaned by Buehrle. Hafner was saying that he enjoyed being on the road and that he was glad he didn't have to go on the DL. Phelps corrected him, saying that he did go on the DL and never made those road trips with the team. Pronk didn't miss a beat, saying he enjoyed his rehab and so on. The shot came back to Matt Underwood and Andy Baskin laughing, saying that the whole bit was Hafner's idea, and that he's constantly going up to Phelps to pitch him ideas that he think would be funny. Seeing as how his favorite two movies are Old School and Anchorman, I can't say I'm surprised. I would like to get Pronk to a local watering hole, as he seems like the kind of guy who would be fun to tie one on with. I mean, he wears wrestling T-shirts in the clubhouse...c'mon.
  
• The other sparkplug in recent games has been, not surprisingly, SuperSizemore, who went for 5 hits on Thursday night, but more importantly keeps scoring runs on instinct and hustle. On Thursday night, Grady scored on a wild pitch by just taking off down the line, beating the toss to Garland by milliseconds. Then, on Friday night, he scored from second on a grounder to SS! It was reminiscent of Lofton's sprint from 2B on Randy Johnson's wild pitch in 1995. Grady has these instincts that, as Hegan says, "you simply cannot teach; you either have them or you don't". Grady's got it.
  
• Will the spirit of the Hall of Fame who pitcher took over Scott Elarton's body for the past few weeks please stick around for about another month?
  
• I'd like to see more of Fernando Cabrera, who mowed his way through 2 innings of shutout ball on Friday night spotting his fastball and throwing a wicked splitter. No hitter even came close to making solid contact. In 23+ innings since he joined the team, Cabrera has posted a 1.16 ERA with 23 K's. With Art Rhodes gone for the year, Matt Miller hurt for the year, and the Atomic Wedgie's confidence in Riske seemingly gone, it's important for Wedge to develop some trust in Cabrera. Otherwise, Rocky B-Court and the Robot's arms are going to fall off.
  
• I keep hearing the national media decry the Tribe's payroll, saying things like, "Imagine what Shapiro could do with $20 million more." Well, I take issue with that. The reason that the Indians' payroll is what it is happens to be more tied into the youth of the core players of this team than it does the alleged frugalness of ownership. Sizemore, Crisp, Peralta, Hafner, Martinez, Sabathia, Lee, Westbrook, and so on would make a ton on the open market, but they've either been locked up by the Tribe already (with the players forfeiting future money for a long-term contract) or will certainly be approached in the off-season. It's not a fair comparison, because you're not comparing apples to apples. Look at Grady Sizemore vs. Steve Finley (an off-season FA CF): would you rather have Grady or Finley? The salary is arbitrary as long as you have the players that you want. It's not how much money you spend, but how you spend your money. If we did have more money, tell me where there needs to be a significant upgrade. I know that Broussard and Blake have disappointed, but there's something to be said for chemistry at the same time. To those who say that the payroll should be higher, don't worry, it will be. As Dolan locks up these young talents, the payroll will rise as the pennants (hopefully) rise in the outfield of the Jake.
  
• The Tribe has taken advantage of playing the Royals, but please don't say that the Indians are lucky to have their remaining schedule. Last time I checked, the White Sox (who play the reeling Twins and Tigers before heading to Cleveland), and the Yankees and Red Sox (who can beat up on Baltimore and Toronto before their final series) aren't exactly playing the toughest schedules either.
  
• Nice to see that Ellis Burks was named a special assistant of baseball operations, joining Charles Nagy. They were two of the more cerebral and well-liked Indians of the 90's, and should be able to impart some wisdom to the young players of the Indians. I think that other players who would also fit that mold would be Travis Fryman (doesn't want to leave his family) and maybe Sandy Alomar (still in the league) as former Indians who could become involved in the organization.
  
• Locked up tickets to the ALDS on Thursday, thanks to the pre-sale offered online to subscribers to the Indians' newsletter. I think that was a great idea to give some priority to the fans who have been on board all year.
  

Every game from here on out is a big one, just get on the edge of your seat and plan on staying there for about a month.

A Mess

Since the conclusion of Tuesday night's game, I've run the gamut of emotions. After the crushing HR by Crede, I sat there asking myself all the questions in the world:

• Is our weakness at 1B and RF going to be our ultimate downfall? Despite Blake's HR on Tuesday, those two positions have batted .235 with 2 RBI in the first 2 games, leaving a staggering 10 men on base (including Broussard leaving 6 on Monday). Throw in that 2B is 0 for 8 for the series and you see that everything is magnified in October...I mean September.

• Why is Wedge messing with the bullpen? All year long, all I've heard is how Wickman allows everyone to settle into their "role". Why then did Sauerbeck start the 8th on Monday and Howry pitched the 7th on Tuesday, while Rocky B-Court pitched the 8th?

• How much do I wish that Bobby Jenks pitched every game? This guy's going Donnie Moore on us. He is a basket case, blowing 2 saves in 2 nights. For comparison, the Robot (Howry) blew his first save in 70 odd games last night. Despite the fact that he's not the closer, that's incredible.

When I woke up and read the doom and gloom of the PD ("All is lost, let's turn our attention to the Browns"), I was on suicide watch. My shoelaces were taken out.

Then I realized something:
The Indians aren't going to win every game. This is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash. Losing one game to the White Sox isn't the end of the world. It's just the law of averages.

Confidence is still very high heading into the balance of the schedule, realizing that the Royals are still 4 of the last 12 games, while the Sox have the Twins to tangle with and the Yankees and Red Sox will finish their seasons beating each other up. The Indians magic number is 12, meaning that any combination of Tribe wins or Yankees losses to add up to 12 puts us in the playoffs.

I have a spy (the wife) in attendance tonight to put a hex on the Yankees. I just hope she makes it out of the Bronx in one piece. I told her to pull an Elaine Benes and wear an Orioles cap, and refuse to take it off. We both decided with the animals that call themselves Yankee fans liable to do anything, she'll just quietly root for the O's.

I'm hoping that these types of games don't continue and that we just roll everybody by a 10-2 margin for the rest of the year, but I realize that just isn't going to happen. In the meantime, I'm going to have to walk around like a zombie at work and try not to lie awake thinking about pinch runners until the alarm goes off.

Playoff baseball is in full swing, and I'm loving it!

Objects in Rearview Mirror...

Due to FSN's inexplicable decision to not televise today's 11-0 win to complete the sweep over the Royals, the meliflous tones of Tom Hamilton and crew relayed the utter dominance that took place at the Jake. C.C. was outstanding, with 8 innings of shutout baseball (allowing only 5 hits, no walks, and striking out 8), and the offense coming through with a full scale onslaught of Jose Lima.

Baseball Tonight led their telecast off with the scorching Tribe (as the clocked ticked down in Lambeau), with the boys at ESPN seemingly finally on board with the Indians' bandwagon. It only took the Indians tying for the 3rd best record in baseball for anyone to sit up and take notice.

The ChiSox took a 2-1 game from the Twins, so the Tribe remains 3.5 games back, with a big series in The Cell for the next three days. The way that the Tribe is rolling, particularly with their starting pitching, this could be a monumental 3 days. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This team bullied its way into the Wild Card lead and into AL Central contention by keeping its collective head down and taking the season one game at a time. To their credit (and Wedge's), they didn't overlook the Royals, with an eye to the Chicago series. They did what they were supposed to do - sweep an inferior team.

Granted it is a Sunday night, after a Tribe sweep and a Browns victory (which didn't make my bride - a Milwaukee native - too happy), but I've got a pretty good feeling going into these last two weeks of the season.

Going down to the Jake Saturday night, we arrived about 5:30 at the Box Office. After buying our tickets, we hit E. 9th to grab some food. One problem - you couldn't get in to any of the places. Panini's - packed, Winking Lizard - packed, The Clevelander - packed, Thirsty Parrot - packed. So much so that you couldn't get in the front doors...at 5:30! I realize that the OSU and ND games were on, but it was quite a return to the days when all those places were packed all the time with Featherheads. We opted for the Batter's Eye, which was also packed, but was having a halfway to St. Patrick's Day party, complete with live Irish music, Guinness on draft, and scantily clad ladies giving out green shamrock beads. Finally someone in the Tribe front office is doing some heavy thinking. It was a great game to attend as the Tribe exploded for 5 in the first, then held on (thanks to Mr. Roboto Bob Howry and the usual tightrope act by Sticky) to win in front of 32,000. Plus, with a victory, the jinx may be behind me as a 2 game winning streak has improved the season record to 5-12.

Hitting the team shop before the game on Saturday, I have a prediction to make. May I present to you the Cleveland Indians 2006 hat. I know that I've mentioned it before, but that C logo with the Chief is everywhere on shirts, hats, or anything. I dont' mind the hat. In fact, I think that it's a nice way to incorporate the C for Cleveland into the uni. I do, however, believe that it is the first step towards the elimination of the Chief from our uniforms. He's already gone from the Jake. Now if they could only do something about those hideous sleeveless jerseys.

Watching the Tribe take a game, knowing that the White Sox had lost made me think of a line in the Metallica song that Casey Blake comes out to, "The soothing light at the end of tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way."

White Sox, there's a freight train bearing down on you, picking up steam daily, and it's got Indians emblazoned across the front of it.

Jelly on a Roll

Wednesday night's game at the Jake was the closest to playoff baseball that I've experienced since the late 90's. From Jake's no-no until the 6th to Bell-i-YARD going deep in typical Jelly fashion (a swing-out-of-your-shoes effort that he admired as it went deep in the SRO area in left), to Wickman's exciting 9th.

Best scene of the night:
A fan in the right field seats catches the HR that Sticky gave up in the 9th. The fans start chanting, "Throw it back, throw it back". Realizing that throwing a ball onto the field gets you ejected from the Jake, I find the usher to see if she's telling the guy not to. But, she's cheering and pumping her fist to throw it back like everyone else. As the ball flew over Blake's head onto the field, I saw her look up towards the concourse (presumably to another usher), shrug her shoulders, mouth the words "no way", and sit down to watch the final two outs.

The atmosphere was electric, giving high-fives to anyone around you, on your feet for the last 3 innings, giving standing O's to anyone - Belliard, Westbrook after his 5th inning of no-hit ball, Wickman coming out of the pen, Broussard during his PH at-bat in recognition of his two bombs on Tuesday. Even the grounds crew got one for clearing the field after a monsoon reminiscient of the Steve Miller Band Concert in 1992 at Blossom...if you were there, you know what I'm talking about.

21,000+ was pretty loud last night, though I think most of them are the same people who have been there all year, who know and enjoy baseball, and are taking great enjoyment out of seeing a talented team mature in an exciting playoff race. This is going to be a great couple of weeks here, right up to and including the final showdown with the White Sox.

Speaking of the Pale Hose, they dropped a game to KC today, meaning that the Tribe is 4.5 games back in the Central. Ozzie Guillen called out another one of his players, Damaso Marte, for a "questionable injury". The White Sox may be coming apart before our very eyes.

As I looked at the standings this morning, the Tribe has the 4th best record in all of baseball! Then I check out the official site, where this quote appears:

"If we don't sign Jim Thome, it'll erode a significant core [of the fan base], and we need to sign Jim Thome for performance and for that core. But I think the only thing that'll bring fans back to the three million range is for us to build a winning team again. That's what we have to do." -- GM Mark Shapiro, in 2002

Mission accomplished, on your end, Mark. Now it's on the fans to realize it.


Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle said on PTI yesterday that he thought the Yankees would win the Wild Card, but Indians' fans shouldn't fret because the Tribe will be good for at least the next 10 years. Actually Rich, I think we'll take our cake and eat it too this year.

Just got the new SI (with Aaron Brooks on the cover) and there's a 3 page article about the Indians. A great shot of Super Sizemore, Jhon, Coco, The Stick, and Pronk (shown here) starts the article off and, surprisingly for the national media, it almost presupposes that the Tribe will make the playoffs. If you don't subscribe to SI, it's worth the time and newstand price.

We're talkin' baseball...Indians baseball...TALKIN' TRIBE!!!

Power Outage, Until...

A very strange scene at the Jake tonight with about half of the lights going out, causing about a 15 minute delay in the game. Up to that point, the Tribe bats had been ice cold and the team hadn't even had a chance to be fired up from Wedgie's meltdown and ejection. Why weren't they hitting? What, was Millwood starting?

But the lights came back on and the light operator may have turned the switch as well on Benny B., who popped a 2 run HR in the 7th to tie the game, then a 3 run jobber in the 8th. I also love how Millwood didn't miss a beat and came back after he delay to get the third out of the inning.

What a game, though as Benny's bat (Garko who?), Millwood's grittiness (he now leads the AL in ERA), and Sticky's ballet moves in the 9th (imagine seeing that keg of beer falling down in front of you as you move down the first base line) contributed to the Tribe improbably coming back to win.

The power outage did allow me to catch some of the classic New Jack City on BET, with the incomparable Wesley Snipes (pre-Passenger 57's "Always bet on black") as Nino Brown. The movie is such a blatant attempt at recreating Scarface, having Nino quoting Tony Montana the whole movie, it's ridiculous. But to an 8th grader, the movie and the soundtrack (which includes Color Me Badd's I Wanna Sex You Up) were great. Speaking of Nino Brown, did anyone catch Braylon Edwards' press conference upon signing with the Browns, when he wore a New Jack City T?

After Jelly Belliard turned some of those magical DP's (particularly the one where he faked the flip to Jhon and tagged the runner, so Swisher didn't go Belle-Vina on him), Shapiro should have his contract extension in the locker room to be picked up.

Art Rhodes left the team for the year on personal reasons, which means that Rocky B-Court, Sauerbeck, Riske, and the F-Cab will move up in the bullpen as well as meaning that some of the young arms (notably, Andrew Brown) may see more action than originally thought. Watching Cabrera throw in the second half of this season makes me think that he could have a similar impact to the one that K-Rod had in the playoffs a few years back for the Halos. I'm not saying that Cabrera is K-Rod, but F-Cab's stuff is filthy and Rhodes' departure may expedite his trip towards the back end of the bullpen.

A sign seen Monday night on FSN - "Super Sizemore". Looks like the copyright office is going to be keeping my checks.

C.C., although he lost his first game in 8 decisons Monday night, showed the maturity that has often been lacking for the (Not so) Crooked Cap. C.C. didn't have his best stuff, but still limited the A's to 1 ER in 6 innings. I realize that the A's are not the 1927 Yankees, but C.C. was able to bear down and work his way out of jams, something that has always been lacking in his repertoire. It seems as though Millwood's composure on the mound has had the desired effect on C.C., Cliff, and Jake. All three calmly work their way out of jams, rather than letting the big inning kill them.

Great game tonight. As Johnny Cougar Mellencamp tells me as I'm leaving the Jake after a good night, Again Tonight.

Can You See the Light?

Great moment - Entering the cab at Hopkins Airport on Sunday night around 10:30PM, I ask the cabbie how the Tribe is doing. He utters the three sweetest words I've heard in some time, "We're killing 'em".

Let's recap - the Wahoos beat Johan Santana, knock Carlos Silva out after one inning, and sweep the Twins right out of playoff contention. And, they win in a large way in front of 38,000+ (though as Cy has stated, 20,000 of which have jumped the bandwagon), to show Cleveland what they've been missing all summer (or at least since the All-Star break). What a weekend for the Friends of the Feather.

Perhaps realizing that the OSU loss and the Browns' continued misery has put Cleveland in its normal September Sunday night doldrums, the Indians came to the rescue. First, Grady hits a triple to start the game, then puts on a display, offensively and defensively, that should make the naysayers that say that "the team has no known players" want to learn about this talented bunch. But the people who read this already knew that.

A few things though pondered while out of the Eastern Time Zone:

While tailgating before the Wisconsin-Temple game in Madison (which is without a doubt the craziest college town I've ever been to) on Saturday afternoon, my buddy Krems said that he thought that this Indians pitching staff is the best staff that we've seen in our lifetime. I have to agree. From the rotation, which has been unbelievable, to the bullpen, which "locks it up" in the late innings, I can't remember a time when the Tribe has legitimately been in EVERY single game because of pitching. It may be a stretch, but I'll go back to the days of Feller and Lemon to a time when all 5 guys in the rotation are capable of winning games and keeping the team in the game. This staff has been incredible.

They should show the scene in Wedding Crashers when Vaughn and Wilson are telling each other to "lock it up" every time a reliever comes on.
John Beckwith: You better lock it up.
Jeremy Grey: No, you lock it up!
John Beckwith: You lock it up!
Jeremy Grey: You lock it up!
John Beckwith: You lock it up!
Jeremy Grey: Lock it up!

With a lot of travel time, I thought about the holes for next year (which I promise I will take a break from because WE'RE IN THE PENNANT RACE), which are 2 starters, 3 relievers, a RF and a 1B. Now there are different strategies on how to fill holes in a lineup that is more or less solid.

The two main strategies being adding pieces through FA or adding major league ready pieces from the farm:
The two main success stories of adding pieces through FA would be New York (obviously) and St. Louis/Boston (who normally trade their prospects for established players, then sign those established players to long-term deals). These teams started with a core group of young talent (for example: NY with Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Williams emerging at the same time in the mid 90's), then add proven major league talent, obviously at a premium. The pros of this process is obviously to acquire players that have experience and a track record. The cons are obviously the costs associated with signing premium FA, and signing older players, who may be more likely to incur injuries. Two obvious busts using this strategy in recent years have been the Orioles (Lopez, Tejada, Palmiero, Sosa) and the Tigers (Ondonez, Rodriguez, Percival), who tried to add players to a depleted roster, attempting to create chemistry using the Fantasy Baseball approach.

The other strategy used has been to continue to build from within once that core group of players is established. Two teams that have used this strategy very effectively have been the A's and the Braves. The A's are more of an extreme case, often trading players at the peak of their trade value (Hudson/Mulder), or allowing a FA to move on (Giambi/Tejada), but they always seem to have another player ready to plug in. Whether it's Bobby Crosby replacing Tejada, or using the arms acquired in trades to replace the studs (Haren came in the Mulder deal), they seem to have mastered the art of knowing where their weaknesses will be two years from now and planning accordingly.
The Braves are a bit of a mix of the strategies, but always have seemed to have that player in the minors ready to contribute (Chipper, Giles, Furcal, Andruw, Estrada, and now Francouer) at the exact position that they need help. In the off chance that the minor leaguer is not ready, they'll add that veteran (Brian Jordan, Julio), but never seem to make that huge splash in FA, relying instead on Leo Mazzone bringing out the best in pitching retreads and Bobby Cox mixing vets and youngsters to win a staggering string of division titles. There are obvious teams that have tried this strategy (for the last 10 years) without any luck (Pirates, Royals), but they haven't had that core group of talent to add to.

Looking at the Tribe with all of these models in mind, I hope that they lean more in the way of the Braves than anything else. Shapiro seems to have players ready in the minors, who seem to be available at spots of most need (Garko at 1B) and a ton of arms to choose from to keep the pitching staff well-stocked. If, by chance, they feel at some point in the future, they feel that they don't have anyone in-house or down the pipeline capable of contributing, add a player. But I don't think it's necessary to add a huge signee to create buzz (just ask the Mariners how Sexson and Beltre have worked out). Rather, they should continue to develop strong prospects and add savvy veterans when needed.

We'll revisit how to address the holes after the season, for now let's concentrate on the matter at hand. The Tribe is 82-61 with 19 games to play. If they can go 12-7 (which is VERY doable with their schedule), they finish with a record of 94-68! They have 7 games against KC, which they could go 6-1 in, meaning they could split the other 12 and still finish with 94 wins. Do you think they're going to split the other 12 the way that they're playing? Me neither. 94 wins should put them right in the thick of things for the Wild Card, if not atop it (I'm not addressing the Central until after the first series with the ChiSox).

The Tribe put the nail in the Twins coffin this weekend with the opportunity to do the same to the A's (in the Wild Card at least) early this week.

Coco won the AL Player of the Week with some sickening numbers. Jason Davis and Fausto Carmona were called up from Buffalo, whose playoffs ended on Sunday.

Enjoy Tribetember and The Hunt for October.

HRD (Home Run Derby)

With the Tribe taking 4 in a row from the Tigers, it's amazing that the last 15 runs scored by the Tribe have all come on home runs. All of that with Jhon and Pronk in extended slumps. To show how prevalent the HR has become recently, Casey Blake knocked his 20th HR today!

Before Wednesday's game, The Architect (Shapiro) was on the radio with some interesting insight. The thing about Shapiro's comments is that you often have to read between the lines for his true meaning. The high points and some thoughts:

• Shapiro said that SuperSizemore projected to eventually become a 25 to 30 HR guy, "once his power comes around". He also said that Grady will become the "prototypical #3 hitter". Let's think about this, Grady is having one of the most exciting seasons in recent Indians history, particularly for a 23 year old. Adding 25-30 HR power to what he's already shown may make Gammons sound prophetic when he said earlier in the season that the American League should write Grady's name in for CF in the All-Star Game for the next 10 years! Shapiro's other comment that Grady was the prototypical #3 hitter blew me away. Not in that it was a surprise, but let's do some math. How many current Indians are legitimate #3 or #4 hitters? I count 4 (SuperSizemore, Jhon, Pronk, and Tthe Stick) with another solid young hitter in Coco. I think that makes up 5 of the 9 batters in the lineup. With that kind of talent in the lineup for the next few years, other players (like Boone and Belliard) don't have to be spectacular, only solid. If they do, however, add one more big bat, we're on our way to watching an offensive juggernaut.
  
  
• When asked about Sticky's future, Shapiro said that he'll first find out if Wickman wants to come back. If he does, the Indians will determine if Wickman fits into their plans. When asked about moving a young arm to the closer role, Shapiro firmly stated that the closer role is not one that he would entrust to a youngster. He went on to say that if Wickman did not return, there were some solid options already in the Tribe pen. Translation: Wickman is unlikely to return (either by his choice or the Tribe's choice) and Shapiro will keep someone that he's comfortable with (saw pitch this year) to close games effectively (Howry/Rhodes). He also said that the bullpen's success will be difficult to duplicate. But you have to think that there's only three guys eligible for FA (Wickman, Howry, Sauerbeck). If they bring back Howry and sign a situational lefty, there's Cabrera, Brown, Miller, Tadano, and possibly Davis battling for one spot.
  
  
• Shapiro said that Peralta is going through an adjustment period as pitchers have now seen him and know what he's been successful against. It's now up to Peralta to adjust (as he has at every level to become a consistent presence in the lineup). Coincidentally, it was mentioned in today's PD that Peralta has been to the postseason for the past 5 years in the minors. Did someone say something about an environment of winning?
  

Enough of Shapiro-speak and analysis.

Today's PD also mentioned that with the Tribe likely to pick up Jelly Belliard's option, the only spot for Brandon Phillips next year (when he's out of options) is as a utility IF. Is anyone upset about this? I realize that B-Phil was the big name in the Colon deal, but if he doesn't work out (and it doesn't look like he's going to), are we upset? We only got an All Star LH starter and Stud CF in the deal. I have no problem cutting ties with Phillips this offseason and seeing if we can get something for him, while his stock may still be relatively high.

There's a good analysis of off-season questions, as well as how perceptions and realities change quickly in the analysis of players in Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times.

After a long weekend in Chicago (where I'll miss the Tribe, Buckeyes, and Browns - but will see a baptism), I'll analyze the holes for the 2006 season and the best way to fill them, pitting building from within against adding Free Agents.

On another Cleveland sports-related note, as if the Browns weren't up enough this season, here's more bad news.

Tampa Bay's up 2-0 in the 5th. If the D-Rays hold on, the Tribe moves into first place, all alone, for the Wild Card, with 22 left to play. The Tribe stands at 79-61 with a legitimate shot at 92-95 wins.