A Lazy Sunday with Real* Baseball

It is a sad day in Cleveland. Paul Cousineau has announced his retirement from the world of sportswriting. Saying that he wanted to spend more time with his family, Cousineau is currently in beautiful Shipshewana, IN with his wife, in-laws and two young sons. He’s enjoying his time out of the spotlight, and has no plans to return. At least not until tomorrow, when he will pull a Favre and quickly un-retire himself and resume his rightful place at the top of the Indians sportswriter mountain. So if those first two sentences gave anyone out there a heart attack, I apologize. Paul is away for the weekend, and I’m pinch hitting for him on this Lazy Sunday, the first of which we have “real” baseball being played with “real” stats and observations to analyze! Forgetting for a moment that me pinch hitting for Pauly C. is akin to Jamey Carroll pinch hitting for Albert Pujols, let’s jump right into this week’s links…

Your Cleveland Indians currently stand at 4-4 in Cactus League play after winning one and losing one yesterday in split-squad action. TCF colleague Adam Burke did a nice rundown yesterday of how various players have been performing so far this spring, and not a whole lot has changed since then. To update the competition for the last couple of open slots on the 25-man roster, both Travis Buck (.500) and Chad Huffman (.571) are working hard to stake their claim to a reserve OF role. The 5th starter competition is intense as well, with David Huff going three shutout innings yesterday and recording two strikeouts. Huff has thrown 5 innings so far this spring, allowing just two hits, no runs and striking out five. Meanwhile, Jenmar Gomez got roughed up in his start against Seattle, giving up four ER in 2 1/3 IP. The third amigo fighting for the final spot in the rotation is Josh Tomlin, who has matched Huff’s 5 scoreless innings so far in Arizona. The smart money here is on either Tomlin or Huff to break camp with the team, and it will be an interesting competition to monitor throughout the spring. As for the final spot in the bullpen, Vinnie Pestano had an impressive outing against the Pale Hose yesterday, striking out the side in order in his one inning of work, giving him 5 K in 2 innings so far this spring.

Paul Hoynes has a nice feature on Huff that talks about his struggles last year, both on the field and off. "Twittergate" is now pretty common knowledge at this point, and Huff and the club seem to have moved past it. Far more interesting for me is this little tidbit:

While he was in the big leagues, former Tribe catcher Mike Redmond introduced him to Mets lefthander Johan Santana. Huff asked Santana to show him his famous change-up. Its a pitch Huff has been throwing 50 percent to 60 percent of the time this spring. Along with his fastball, the occasional slider and curveball, it has helped him get off to a fast start.

Mike Redmond...the gift that keeps on giving. If Huff masters his changeup and is more effective against righthanders this year, he will at the very least have to send Redmond a fruit basket.

This brings us to the two players I consider the Most Important Indians (MII’s) for 2011. Conveniently, we have one position player and one pitcher. My MII position player for this year is 1B Matt LaPorta. It’s no secret that LaPorta has been a disappointment at the ML level since he was acquired from the Brewers in the C.C. Sabathia trade. His career OPS is .694, with 19 HR in 557 at bats. This after posting a career .956 minor league OPS, with 56 HR in 884 at bats. Clearly, something has been lost in the transition from AAA to The Show. LaPorta has struggled with various injuries, including hip and toe problems. Are these ailments sapping him of his power? Or does he simply not have the physical tools to be a presence in the middle of a major league lineup? Either way, we should find out in 2011 as LaPorta is now 26 years old and is running out of excuses. He finally had a normal offseason this past winter, and was able to work out and condition himself for the grind of a 162 game regular season. The Indians have two very important building blocks in the middle of the lineup with Carlos Santana and Choo. A healthy and mashing LaPorta would give them a 3-4-5 capable of contending for the division. If he can become the .280/.380/.480 guy that we envisioned when he came over from Milwaukee, that would make him a crucial building block in The Plan v2.0 that would still be under club control for quite some time. LaPorta is hitting a sluggish .158 so far this spring in 19 at bats. The Silver Lining Department reports that all three of his hits have been for extra bases, with a HR and a pair of 2B. LaPorta is saying that he feels better this spring than he ever has, and hopefully the numbers reflect that once the games actually count.

Moving on to the MII (Pitcher Division), we have a young starter that Pauly has waxed eloquently on in this very space at quite some length in the past. I’ll not rehash all of his points here again, but suffice to say that I think some people have given up on him a little early. It seems like he’s been around forever, but Car-Car doesn’t turn 24 until later this month. He posted a 3.83 ERA and 7.7 K/9 in 44 2/3 innings last season, and needs to take another step forward this year if the Indians are going to contend in the near-term. He has the talent to be a solid #2 starter in the major leagues; the question has always been his ability to manage the game from the mental side of the house. Age and experience will only help, and I still am really expecting big things out of a guy who was considered a top 50 prospect in all of baseball from 2007-2009. Carrasco had a solid outing in his first start of the spring, throwing two scoreless innings and striking out a pair. On a personal note, he left the club on Friday to head to Florida to be with his wife as she delivers their child. He missed a start yesterday as a result, but will be back early this week and still has plenty of time to get up to speed. Carrasco earning the #3 role (or better) in the Tribe rotation this year or next is another keystone in the development of The Plan v2.0,

Speaking of top prospect lists, the “Big Three”have their top 100’s out, and Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, and Baseball America all agree that the Indians have at least three of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis and Drew Pomeranz appear on all three lists. Goldstein and BA both list Alex White as well, and Law has White in his “just missed” article. Law listed 10 players as having just missed the top 100, so for argument’s sake let’s say White is his #105 overall prospect. If you average out the rankings from those three sources (which are universally considered to be the industry standard), you'll see that the Indians have four of the top 74 prospects in all of baseball according to outside experts with no attachment to the club. This is not coming from internal sources like Antonetti/Shapiro, nor from writers like myself, Pauly C. or Tony over at IPI who were admittedly Indians fans before we started writing about baseball.

In addition to the four top players in the system, the Indians are pretty much universally regarded as having one of the deeper systems in baseball. Guys like Jason Knapp, Nick Weglarz, Chun Chen, Felix Sterling could leap into the top 100 next year with healthy and productive seasons. Baseball Prospectus has pulled together a spreadsheet compiling several top 100 lists, and those guys appear on a number of lists from around the industry. There is plenty of depth available, especially when it comes to power bullpen arms. No club can ever have too much pitching, and a number of the internal options could find their way to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario at some point in 2011 for a cup of coffee or more.

All of this should of course be taken with the caveat that prospects are what they are, and placement on any top 100 list is no guarantee of future success. One needs only to look to the Baseball Prospectus series on the top 50 “most disappointing” prospects of all time to see that (I’m looking at you, Andy Marte). But the core of this team is still very young, with Santana, Chris F. Perez, Asdrubal, Carrasco and others still shy of their 25th birthdays. So while there is talent in the pipeline, there is also plenty of reason for optimisim when looking at the youth movement already in Cleveland.

This seems like as good a time as any to remind everyone that I am headed to Arizona in two weeks to check out both the minor league and major league squads as they prepare for the upcoming season. It’s a trip that I took last year for the first time, and highly recommend it to any baseball fan that can make it. Better weather than Cleveland, better player access than in Cleveland, less stress over who wins and loses than there will be in Cleveland, and more prospects that you’ll see in Cleveland. Not to seem like I am running down my hometown, but spending a 75 degree day in March watching Chuck Nagy throw BP to Carlos Santana, Choo and Weglarz is a pretty darn good time. I’ll be posting several articles from Goodyear, as well as letting my consciousness stream away on the Twitter. So if you have a question for a prospect or player that hasn’t already been answered by Bastian or one of the other beat writers, send it my way (@alciammaichella) and I’ll be happy to try and get it taken care of. I promise not to tweet pictures of the Arizona sunset, or constant weather updates that make you long for the dog days of August while you’re digging out of another blizzard on the snowy North Coast.

In the “news that should surprise absolutely no one” category, Bud Shaw reports that Manny Acta has named Fausto Carmona as his Opening Day starter. The dreams of Fausto’s 2007 season becoming the mean for his career are long gone, but he put up a very solid 3.77 ERA in 2010, and his 3.1 BB/9 rate was the lowest since that magical 2007 campaign. I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for Carmona, as his 2007 performance against the Yankees in the ALDS was probably the most memorable baseball game I’ve ever seen live. Carmona’s defeat over both the Yankees and the Canadian Soldiers had me convinced that he was going to be a mainstay at or near the top of the Tribe rotation for many years to come. He’s the #1 starter this year more by default than by proven himself to be an “ace” in the truest sense of the word, but it’s not unreasonable to think he can at least repeat his 2010 numbers.

Anthony Castrovice continues his fantastic work even though he’s not the assigned Indians beat writer for MLB.com anymore, taking a look at the media guide and extracting some interesting minutia. I for one was both intrigued and shocked to hear that our opening day starter’s favorite movie is Major League II. It’s a fantastic opportunity and I don’t begrudge him a bit for taking it, but a small part of me dies inside when I read a Castro article about the Red Sox in their role as AL East favorites. Fortunately he still writes about the Tribe on a pretty regular basis, and his replacement on the Tribe beat Jordan Bastain is fantastic as well.

Speaking of Bastain, he updated a variety of topics late Friday evening on his blog for MLB.com. Among them, he touched on the Sizemore situation:

Center fielder Grady Sizemore (left knee) took another step forward –pun intended?—in his rehab on Friday. Sizemore took part in outfield group drills, catching fly balls and fielding grounders. He also upped the intensity of his agility and sprint drills, nothing that the day’s excercises had him moving in ‘all directions.’ He also took part in batting practice as usual.

As of right now, there’s still no plan to move Grady from CF when he is healthy enough to play again. Sizemore’s status effects not only the top of the lineup and the OF defense, but the club’s bottom line as well. He’s one of the players that casual fans will still pay to see, and like it or not is especially key to the female demographic. Sizemore’s return will help put wins in the scorebook and fans in the seats, and I for one would be pleasantly surprised if he were available by tax day.

Moving on to some of the newest Indians in the tepee, Baseball Prospectus’ Christina Kahrl does a fine job pulling together her thoughts on the recent roster moves, from Durbin to Johnson to Lawson. She points out that Johnson’s recent success occurred under Acta’s watchful eye in Washington, when he put up a .291/.426/.405 line in 133 games in 2009. She believes that Johnson can be an effective part of the 1B/DH rotation once he’s back to full health, and I agree. Although he and Hafner both hit from the left side, Johnson has actually put up a higher career OPS against lefties (.857) than righties (.840). So he and Hafner are not mutually exclusive, and Johnson can start as well as be a valuable bat off the bench regardless of who is on the mound. Kahrl is also cautiously optimistic on the Durbin signing:

As for Durbin, it is perhaps a mild surprise that he lasted this long on the market, especially after giving the Phillies two excellent seasons out of three, wrapping a 19.1 ARP campaign in 2008 and a 10.4 ARP in 2010 around a -4.8 season in '09. What's sort of surprising is that Durbin has managed to improve his strikeout rate in each of the last three years, topping out at a very nice 21.6 percent clip last year. What makes that even more surprising is that he's not a power pitcher by any stretch, relying on a sinker/slider mix where his heat sits around 89-90 mph, providing his best value by getting spotted carefully against right-handers and weaker lefties. His flyball tendencies will no doubt lead to negative nattering, but happily the Tribe's home park isn't a high-offense environment.

So while the Durbin signing remains much maligned in Cleveland, writers on the national scene seem much more optimistic on his chances to improve the Indians in 2011. Add to that the potential that if Durbin does manage to put together a solid season, there’s a possibility that he could fetch draft pick compensation if he chooses to ply his trade in greener pastures in 2012. Bullpens being what they are, there will still be plenty of chances for the plethora of power arms in the upper reaches of the minor leagues to make their mark on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario this season. The talent will rise to the top, whether they begin the season down south in Columbus or not.

The Ides of March are approaching, the first week of spring games are in the books, and the 25-man roster is starting to take shape. If you’re not getting excited for Indians baseball now…well, I don’t know what to tell you.

Fun with Numbers on a Lazy Sunday

After another clunker by Sowers (where he remains that one pitch away from magically getting out of an inning, instead victimized by that one pitch that becomes a 3-run HR), remember that Westbrook is still probably 4 weeks away from returning; so Sowers will likely have at least 4 or 5 more starts to rectify his issues. If, by that time, no progress has been made, a move to Buffalo is inevitable as the Indians need their 5 best pitchers in the rotation, regardless of past success. Here’s hoping that Sowers can figure out what ails him in Cleveland, which is the best place for him to do so; but with the Tigers not slowing down, the Indians need their best chance to win every night. When Sowers no longer fits into that category, a change will be made. Until then, he’ll be in Cleveland.

Passing the quarter pole last night, I decided it’s time to get into some projections of where the Indians players statistics might end up this year; but before we get into the numbers game, a quick Lazy Sunday:

Paul Hoynes reports that Andy Marte will play against LHP upon his return from rehab, but doesn’t address the reason why. The fear that Marte’s return would take Blake, Garko, or Nixon out of the lineup brought out the “if it ain’t broke…” argument, but Nixon’s performance against LHP (.504 OPS vs. LHP, .838 OPS vs. RHP) and the fact that he’s coming off off-season back surgery became the deciding factors in bringing Marte back to Cleveland, rather than having Gutierrez take those AB vs. LHP. Against LHP, Marte will play 3B and Blake will play RF; while against RHP, Blake will stay at 3B and the Dirt Dog will patrol RF.

Hoynes also touches on the fact that Brandon Phillips doesn’t give interviews to Cincinnati reporters. It’s been well-documented here, but Phillips’ belief that he is destined for enshrinement in Cooperstown, meaning he’s held to a different set of rules makes me happy that he no longer takes up a spot on the Tribe roster, regardless of his performance on the field.

During Friday night’s game, Phillips took off 2nd base with one out as the batter lined an out to CF. Phillips, mid-way between 2nd and 3rd, immediately stopped, took off his batting helmet, and started walking back to his spot in the infield for the next inning as he was doubled up at 2B. Phillips made zero effort to make it back to prevent the inning-ending force out as his arrogance, petulance, and penchant for prima donna behavior showed through in one simple play.

SI.com’s Gennaro Filice (which sounds, frankly, like a made up name) lists Carmona and Sowers in his 5-up, 5-down column.

Apparently, Keith Foulke’s retirement may be short-lived. That is, if you believe anything in a Boston paper.

Finally under the “A Man Can Dream, Can’t He?” ledger, the Rangers’ reporters believe that Texas may have an interest in moving Mark Teixeira. He in under contract until the end of 2008 and is a GIANT bat at a Gold Glover at 1B.

With that out of the way, we’ve officially hit the quarter pole of the season and it’s time to pull out the calculator and make some projections. Using some simple math (and an Excel spreadsheet, but please excuse the way the tables look as Blogger is not exactly easy to import a table into), here is how the Indians’ position players project out over a full season. Since it’s often difficult to figure out how a player is doing regarding RBI or HR or R without looking at the League Leaders, this provides an easier way to look at what the Indians are on pace to do.

With the obvious caveat that this is simply taking the numbers of the players thus far and extrapolating those numbers out, here we go:

Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Sizemore	140	28	80	60	.397	.452	.274	.849
Blake	92	12	68	8	.339	.403	.255	.742
Barfield	68	4	64	16	.252	.304	.225	.556
Peralta	92	36	120	4	.354	.514	.268	.868
Hafner	104	32	116	0	.441	.485	.279	.926
Martinez	84	20	124	0	.412	.508	.328	.92
Garko	68	24	60	0	.378	.526	.328	.904
Nixon	72	8	80	0	.366	.383	.278	.749
Dellucci	68	4	24	8	.293	.355	.243	.648
Michaels	32	4	36	4	.308	.397	.274	.705
Shoppach	28	4	24	0	.371	.449	.275	.82
Marte	12	4	32	0	.221	.333	.179	.554
Rouse	12	0	8	4	.237	.176	.147	.413

Yes, that would be 60 RBI from the LF platoon of Dellucci and Michaels and 60 RBI from Garko. If not for the run production from the C and the SS position, that would be unacceptable. Speaking of the SS position, welcome back Jhonny v.2005!

While compiling the pitchers, something stood out that was shocking – had you told me at the beginning of the season that the Tribe would hit the quarter pole with 3 combined wins from Westbrook, Lee, and Sowers, I would have bought stock in Mylanta. Yet, here they sit, atop the AL Central, on pace for 100 wins with the pitchers that entered Spring Training as their #2, #3, and #4 starters combining for 3 wins.

Here are the rest of the projections for the pitchers:

Player	W	L	ERA	G	SV	SO	WHIP
Sabathia	24	4	3.65	36	0	252	1.22
Carmona	20	4	2.55	28	0	80	1.14
Byrd	12	4	3.49	24	0	92	1.24
Sowers	0	16	7.13	32	0	48	1.63
Westbrook	4	8	7.91	24	0	72	1.68
Lee	8	0	4.15	16	0	48	1.27
Mastny	8	4	3.01	64	0	68	0.94
Cabrera	4	8	4.67	48	0	96	1.62
Hernandez	8	4	4.24	68	0	52	1.53
Borowski	0	8	9.01	68	48	72	1.73
Betancourt	0	0	2.45	56	0	52	1.02
Fultz	12	0	2.03	80	0	44	0.75

Obviously, Sowers isn’t going to to 0-16 (is he?) and Aaron Fultz isn’t going to go 12-0, but how about those 2 horses at the top?

As serial poster Tyler pointed out earlier in the week, the number of appearances for The Big Borowski is pretty high and may be the reason that the Indians look to fortify the bullpen – to take some of the load off of JoeBo’s arm. Remember, he failed a physical in Philly, so that many appearances could not be a great idea.

Those numbers can change pretty dramatically one way or the other, but we’re getting to a point where the sample sizes are big enough in 2007 to make some judgments.
These projections could go a long way in determining what those judgments would be.

Team Teflon

The Indians completed the sweep of the Indians as El Diablo outdueled Johan Cyntana and The Little Engine that Could is developing into a full-blown freight train. The obstacles that have been thrown up in front of them simply become items in the rearview mirror.

The Opening Series against the Mariners was cancelled due to snow?
No problem…watch the fans make some snow angels and get ready for the Angels.

The Angels’ series gets moved to Milwaukee due to inclement weather?
Roll with it. Then take the series from the AL West-contending Halos in front of those crazy Wisconsinites.

Cliff Lee starts the season on the DL, followed by Jake Westbrook?
Don’t sweat the technique. Just plug Fausto Carmona in there and watch him rattle off a 5-1 record (including 2 wins against Johan Santana) with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Carmona’s pulling his best Grady Sizemore (circa 2005) impression…daring the club to send him down to Buffalo. How about this quote from Torii Hunter on Carmona after the complete game shutout -“That dude is filthy. ... If you've never played the game, listen to me, I'm a hitter. Right-handers have no chance unless they get lucky and get a hit on a broken bat.” Um…it’s time to call a realtor, Fausto.

Joe Borowski blows the final game in New York, letting up a 5-run 9th, allowing the Yanks to sweep?
All good. Unfazed, the Tribe just rattled off 11 wins in their next 13 games.

Travis Hafner proves to be human after all, batting .163 with a .679 OPS in the month of May?
That’s fine. The rest of the team has stepped up to the point that they have scored 10 more runs than the Red Sox (94 to 84) and 13 more runs than the Yankees (94 to 81) in the first 15 to 16 games of the month. The Indians 94 runs for the month of May, by the way, lead all of MLB. The most notable contributors include Nixon (14 RBI), Peralta (14 RBI), and the Stick (12 RBI).

Borowski blows another 9th inning game in heartbreaking fashion against the A’s?
Water off a duck’s back. Bring on the divisional rival Twins to beat up on as they sweep their way through the series, outscoring Minnesota 24 to 8. The Twins best chance to win, with Santana, sunk just as quickly as the 95 MPH sinker (?!?) coming out of Carmona’s hand.

The point is, this team has not been given the easiest road to hoe, but it continues to put the blinders on, keeping their collective head down and winning. They sit on the 2nd best record in the AL and 4th best in all of MLB despite the fact that the offense is just now hitting it’s stride and the fact that the bullpen still has an air of uncertainty around it.

If anyone else just waiting for the next barrier to go up in front of the Indians, that’s just your natural reflex as a Cleveland fan and you’re not alone. But nothing sticks to this team, (that’s now 10 games over .500) as it has rolled over all the speed bumps to this point and doesn’t show any signs of letting little things like home games in Milwaukee, two complete meltdowns by your closer (albeit in the midst of getting 12 saves), enduring injury to two of the vital cogs of your rotation, getting jobbed by the umps against Baltimore, and a very un-Pronklike month get in the way of staying on a roll.

The team that we are seeing right now is the team that we all expected going into 2006.
Remember that, the optimism of last March? The Tribe was fresh off of a playoff push, at the top of most Power Rankings to start the season and was the trendy pick to win the World Series. Well, that team has finally arrived, ready to fight this thing out until the end in the AL Central and beyond.


Maybe it’s a year too late, but better late than never.

Can You See the Light?

Great moment - Entering the cab at Hopkins Airport on Sunday night around 10:30PM, I ask the cabbie how the Tribe is doing. He utters the three sweetest words I've heard in some time, "We're killing 'em".

Let's recap - the Wahoos beat Johan Santana, knock Carlos Silva out after one inning, and sweep the Twins right out of playoff contention. And, they win in a large way in front of 38,000+ (though as Cy has stated, 20,000 of which have jumped the bandwagon), to show Cleveland what they've been missing all summer (or at least since the All-Star break). What a weekend for the Friends of the Feather.

Perhaps realizing that the OSU loss and the Browns' continued misery has put Cleveland in its normal September Sunday night doldrums, the Indians came to the rescue. First, Grady hits a triple to start the game, then puts on a display, offensively and defensively, that should make the naysayers that say that "the team has no known players" want to learn about this talented bunch. But the people who read this already knew that.

A few things though pondered while out of the Eastern Time Zone:

While tailgating before the Wisconsin-Temple game in Madison (which is without a doubt the craziest college town I've ever been to) on Saturday afternoon, my buddy Krems said that he thought that this Indians pitching staff is the best staff that we've seen in our lifetime. I have to agree. From the rotation, which has been unbelievable, to the bullpen, which "locks it up" in the late innings, I can't remember a time when the Tribe has legitimately been in EVERY single game because of pitching. It may be a stretch, but I'll go back to the days of Feller and Lemon to a time when all 5 guys in the rotation are capable of winning games and keeping the team in the game. This staff has been incredible.

They should show the scene in Wedding Crashers when Vaughn and Wilson are telling each other to "lock it up" every time a reliever comes on.
John Beckwith: You better lock it up.
Jeremy Grey: No, you lock it up!
John Beckwith: You lock it up!
Jeremy Grey: You lock it up!
John Beckwith: You lock it up!
Jeremy Grey: Lock it up!

With a lot of travel time, I thought about the holes for next year (which I promise I will take a break from because WE'RE IN THE PENNANT RACE), which are 2 starters, 3 relievers, a RF and a 1B. Now there are different strategies on how to fill holes in a lineup that is more or less solid.

The two main strategies being adding pieces through FA or adding major league ready pieces from the farm:
The two main success stories of adding pieces through FA would be New York (obviously) and St. Louis/Boston (who normally trade their prospects for established players, then sign those established players to long-term deals). These teams started with a core group of young talent (for example: NY with Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Williams emerging at the same time in the mid 90's), then add proven major league talent, obviously at a premium. The pros of this process is obviously to acquire players that have experience and a track record. The cons are obviously the costs associated with signing premium FA, and signing older players, who may be more likely to incur injuries. Two obvious busts using this strategy in recent years have been the Orioles (Lopez, Tejada, Palmiero, Sosa) and the Tigers (Ondonez, Rodriguez, Percival), who tried to add players to a depleted roster, attempting to create chemistry using the Fantasy Baseball approach.

The other strategy used has been to continue to build from within once that core group of players is established. Two teams that have used this strategy very effectively have been the A's and the Braves. The A's are more of an extreme case, often trading players at the peak of their trade value (Hudson/Mulder), or allowing a FA to move on (Giambi/Tejada), but they always seem to have another player ready to plug in. Whether it's Bobby Crosby replacing Tejada, or using the arms acquired in trades to replace the studs (Haren came in the Mulder deal), they seem to have mastered the art of knowing where their weaknesses will be two years from now and planning accordingly.
The Braves are a bit of a mix of the strategies, but always have seemed to have that player in the minors ready to contribute (Chipper, Giles, Furcal, Andruw, Estrada, and now Francouer) at the exact position that they need help. In the off chance that the minor leaguer is not ready, they'll add that veteran (Brian Jordan, Julio), but never seem to make that huge splash in FA, relying instead on Leo Mazzone bringing out the best in pitching retreads and Bobby Cox mixing vets and youngsters to win a staggering string of division titles. There are obvious teams that have tried this strategy (for the last 10 years) without any luck (Pirates, Royals), but they haven't had that core group of talent to add to.

Looking at the Tribe with all of these models in mind, I hope that they lean more in the way of the Braves than anything else. Shapiro seems to have players ready in the minors, who seem to be available at spots of most need (Garko at 1B) and a ton of arms to choose from to keep the pitching staff well-stocked. If, by chance, they feel at some point in the future, they feel that they don't have anyone in-house or down the pipeline capable of contributing, add a player. But I don't think it's necessary to add a huge signee to create buzz (just ask the Mariners how Sexson and Beltre have worked out). Rather, they should continue to develop strong prospects and add savvy veterans when needed.

We'll revisit how to address the holes after the season, for now let's concentrate on the matter at hand. The Tribe is 82-61 with 19 games to play. If they can go 12-7 (which is VERY doable with their schedule), they finish with a record of 94-68! They have 7 games against KC, which they could go 6-1 in, meaning they could split the other 12 and still finish with 94 wins. Do you think they're going to split the other 12 the way that they're playing? Me neither. 94 wins should put them right in the thick of things for the Wild Card, if not atop it (I'm not addressing the Central until after the first series with the ChiSox).

The Tribe put the nail in the Twins coffin this weekend with the opportunity to do the same to the A's (in the Wild Card at least) early this week.

Coco won the AL Player of the Week with some sickening numbers. Jason Davis and Fausto Carmona were called up from Buffalo, whose playoffs ended on Sunday.

Enjoy Tribetember and The Hunt for October.

Back in the Basement

After a long weekend in Denver (where we hit Coors Field and looked for reminders of John Elway to defile), it's nice to come back to a couple of solid games. It is amazing, though, how the Tribe continues to get no love nationally, which becomes apparent the moment one steps out of Northeast Ohio. The reaction that I got from most people who I was talking baseball with was akin to the lady at the party telling Jake Taylor, "I didn't know Cleveland still had a team."

Yet, I won't let the naysayers get me down tonight as the Tribe heads into a critical stretch of games against Minnesota and Oakland. This has been said many times before, but this could be the biggest stretch of games that they play all year. As we get closer to October, every series (and game, for that matter) is of utmost importance. And as long as the pitching remains stellar (how about Elarton and Lee?) and the hitting picks up a touch, the last 3 weeks of the season should be very entertaining and exciting.

While on vaco (with no access to the Internet), the Tribe called up Jeremy Guthrie (who will be available to throw some innings if a starter falters early) and Andrew Brown (who may be up to stay), while activating Art Rhodes. Those three, with the return of Matt Miller, allow the Indians enough arms for the stretch run. And this is all while letting the Bisons keep some top prospects (Davis & Carmona - and even adding Jeremy Sowers to the rotation) for the AAA playoffs. That's depth.

Ryan Garko and Jason Dubois also got to take the car ride on I-90, though neither should see real significant AB's. Garko may see action in a laugher just to get rid of some jitters, and Dubois will only get up if the Tribe really needs a K.

Victor Martinez was the subject of a Tim Kurkjian article in ESPN The Magazine, in which the Tribe's lineup was described as one of the game's "scariest" and The Stick's offensive numbers were favorably compared to Mike Piazza's in his heydey. To look at Vic's numbers since May 28 (when he was hitting .193), they are absolutely incredible.

I received the Season Ticket-Holder Playoff Packet in the mail today. For some perspective, my season tickets are in the Mezzanine section for 20 games. A partial package, but enough to be at the Jake fairly regularly. Without telling secrets, the 4 seats run $12 a game, so the math works out to less than $1K a year. My postseason packet indicated that those 4 seats for the 11 possible games of the playoffs (3 in the ALDS, 4 in the ALCS, 4 in the WS) run cost...wait for it...$3,440! I called our friends at the Indians, thinking there had been a miscalculation (it works out to $78 a seat!), but was told that it was correct. ALDS games are $25, ALCS are $55, WS are $140. And they'll sell them all, as if it's predetermined to go 7 games.

Now, do the Indians offer a special discount to season ticket holders or make only certain games available for season ticket-holders? NO! You have to buy the whole package, or you get shut out. If the Indians don't make the playoffs, the money is put towards the 2006 regular season (or the 2006, 2007, 2008, and part of 2009 for me). I was in college during the '90s, so I'm not sure if this is how it's always done, but it is curious.

Needless to say, I'll be passing on giving the Tribe nearly $3,500 to tie it up for the next four years. If the Tribe makes the playoffs, there's no question that I'll be first in line for tix, but there has to be some middle ground for the loyal fans of the Indians, and the current situation is certainly not the way to endear yourselves to a fickle fan base.

6-0 in the 8th. Go Devil Rays!

1994 vs. 2005

Despite taking the series (2 of 3) from the Jays, the Tribe finds itself behind the Yankees, who took advantage of playing the Royals to stake a lead in the Wild Card. Interestingly, the A's have pulled ahead of the Angels, who were swept by the Rays in St. Pete, in the West. That's right, those same Rays, that the Tribe took 3 of 4 from, knocked the "mighty" Halos off of their perch in the AL West.

Elarton will lead the Tribe into the Jake tomorrow to face Jeremy Bonderman. I'm hoping that a crowd of more than 20,000 show up; we ARE in a playoff race at the end of August. I guess that taste of letting Sandy Alomar go is still bitter in a lot of mouths.

Speaking of Sandy, I was thinking about how this year's Tribe reminds me of the 1994 team, with young talent sparking the way to meaningful games late in the season (strike notwithstanding). This team, however, seems to be made up of more players that fit into the "Cleveland" profile of hard-workers, accessible players, and overachievers.

The teams of the late '90s had players that, while immensely talented, never embraced the city the way that Cleveland begged to be embraced, particularly after the Browns left. In addition to the obviousness surliness of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton always carried himself with an arrogance (remember how he dropped his bat on home after ball 4?) that Cleveland fans believed was a "swagger" that set the tone. In fact, I think that most of those players were out for themselves and their stats while subscribing more readily to the old "25 players, 25 cabs" relationship, allowing their unbelievable talent to make up for shortcomings in chemistry. How many of those players were genuinely likable? Carlos Baerga was, as was Alvaro Espinoza. The argument can be made that Manny, Thome, and Omar were likable; or was it that we wanted SO badly to have that one true hero that we threw the mantle of "Cleveland's Best" on those three, in that order, until they ultimately left town for greener (pun intended) pastures.

Those teams were likable for the brand of baseball that they played (pummel opponents into submission) and because of the improbable 1995 season, when it seemed like they won every other game in the bottom of the 9th. That season is what truly captured the city's attention. You feared to miss a game, lest you miss Belle's bomb off of Lee Smith or Eckersley walking off the mound saying,"WOW" after Manny did what he does. The players became heros because of what they did individually, not how they played as a team.

The 2005 team, however, seems to have players that play well together, often conveying a chemistry that probably isn't seen too often in an MLB clubhouse. Between Victor's ridiculous handshakes, Grady's almost otherworldly confidence (not to be confused with Lofton's arrogance), and Pronk's quotability (he said that he finished in the top 10 academically in his high school class, later chiming in that it was a class of 8), I cannot help but root for this team.

Since 2001, I've been determined to live by the idea that you cheer for the name of the front of the uniform, not the back. As the end of the '90s showed, becoming emotionally attached to individual players only leads to resementment towards the modern professional athlete.

However, I'm on board of this talented group of players, who seem to play their guts out every game (to use a Butch Davis term), never giving up.

Let's look at this weekend. Grady had a straight steal of home with 2 strikes on the player with the 3rd highest Average in the AL! Hafner hit two MONSTER bombs! The Stick had 7 straight hits! Millwood responds to the fact that he gets ZERO run support by saying, what's he going to do cry about it? He'd rather have a beer.

How is this town NOT embracing this team?!?

Off of the soapbox, with Miller and Rhodes on the DL, the bullpen remains lights-out as Bobby Howry seems to have hit another level as a set-up man. Seeing as how Wickman, Howry, and Sauerbeck are the only relievers not under contract next year, I see the 2006 bullpen shaking out like this:
Howry, assuming we sign him to close
Riske
Rhodes (not a true match-up lefty)
Cabrera
Betancourt
Miller/Brown
A Match-Up LH (either a FA or Tallet, Stanford, Traber, etc.)

Now, assuming that Scott Elarton signs a deal with the team (he apparently realized after Colorado that being in a comfortable situation is more important to him than counting every last dollar, which Millwood and Boras will certainly do this off-season), the Tribe has 4 starters in line:
Lee
Westbrook
C.C.
Elarton
The fifth spot could go to a FA, though the names out there aren't going to set the Cuyahoga on fire, or giving Fausto Carmona a shot at the fifth spot, with more young stud starters (Sowers, Miller, etc.) in the pipeline. I'd like to see what Carmona could do, though I'd like to see it as an open competition to force him to earn a spot, as C.C. memorably did a few years back.

Who's noticeably absent from this list? Jason Davis, who I believe will be part of a trade to land either a 1B or RF for next year. I would guess a RF because Ryan Garko (the top 1B prospect) seems a lot closer to being major league ready than the outfield prospects (Gutierrez, Snyder, and Cooper, to a lesser degree). Davis is still young and has a live arm, but as has happened to Tallet, Traber, and Cruceta (claimed off of waivers by Seattle), more talented arms have emerged and staked their claims into figuring into the future of the organization, perhaps more than Jason Dangerously.

With all of the thoughts and options on my mind about next year, I'll touch on building through Free Agency (a la the Yankees and the Cardinals) vs. building from within (a la the A's and the Braves) in the next post.

In the meantime, if you're anywhere near the Jake in the next three days, head to the game. I'll be there on Wednesday, which coincidentally is my anniversary. The Bride's comment after sweeping the Orioles, "If they're hot when they get back to town, we'll skip dinner and hit the game". That date will also be the year anniversary of the 22-0 drubbing of the Yankees in the Bronx.

Thanks Blue

The umps' non-call for Wicky's balk (and it WAS a balk) allowed the Tribe to steal their 9th consecutive victory on the road. It also allowed us the pleasure of seeing one of the truly entertaining moments in sports - a Lou Pinella meltdown. After he launched bats everywhere after Coco's triple in the 7th, Lou really lost it after the non-call. Even the most elementary lip-reader could tell that Lou was not quoting Scripture.

Those types of games, though, are the types of games that the White Sox, not the Indians, were winning earlier this year. Now the Tribe seems to have all sorts of momentum (and a little bit of luck) on their side. Don't look now, but the Tribe is only 7 games back of the "uncatchable" ChiSox with 36 games (including 6 more against the White Sox) remaining. How great would it be if that last weekend series over the end of September/beginning of October at the Jake against the Sox was for the Central? I'll file that thought away for the moment to focus on the business at hand, keeping pace in the Wild Card.

Good article by Terry Pluto on the attendance at the Jake this year.

On the topic of attendance, to watch the camera pan the crowd at the Trop, there's no way that 8,500 people (as it's being reported) are there. How long can the Rays stay in Tampa? They entered the series with the Tribe on a bit of a hot streak, with the bizarre looking Jorge Cantu, and their other young talents, leading the way. Yet, there have probably been 15,000 people ACTUALLY at the first 3 games, with reported ticket sales around 25,000. It's kind of sad.

The Atomic One said that the Tribe will probably call up a third catcher, an extra starter (Jason Davis and Fausto Carmona were specifically mentioned), an extra outfielder, and an infielder for the September call-ups to go with the reinforcements in the bullpen when Miller and Rhodes return. It sounds like Phillips, Dubois, and Davis will join Tallet and Cabrera (who will likely stick around when Miller and Rhodes return) as the September call-ups. An appearance by Andrew Brown or a Kaz Tadano wouldn't be too surprising in that they're both on the 40 man and can add innings to the pen after a long season. I'm not sure what third catcher they'll add as The Stick and Bardo are the only catchers on the 40 man. They could always add Garko (who was drafted as a catcher) and make a move on the 40 man to get him on (dropping off Juan Gone, if his contract allowed it?).

Fausto Carmona's name was mentioned as a potential call-up, but the Tribe will probably opt for the more experienced Davis for now. Carmona will be an interesting pitcher to watch this coming Spring, though, as he has dominated AAA as a 21 year old, going 4-4 with a 2.51 ERA in the 10 games since he's gotten called up. He's gotten 44 K's in 68 innings, while giving up only 55 hits and 11 walks. I wonder if his success will allow the Tribe to move Davis to the pen (to battle Cabrera, Brown for available spots) in Spring Training and give Carmona a legitimate shot to make the rotation next year. Between Carmona (he's the starter) and Cabrera (he's the reliever), the Tribe can add some serious firepower to the pitching staff from within for next year.

The business at hand, of course, though is still keeping pace for the Wild Card and Elarton's egg tonight (it was bound to happen sooner or later) more than likely means that the Tribe can only scoreboard watch for the Yankees (Toronto up 9-0 in the 6th) and A's (Oakland up 9-0 in the 7th).

Can't win 'em all.

What to Do, What to Do?

With the trading deadline mere days away, Indians' fans still seem to be on the fence about whether to be a buyer or a seller. The Indians, though, apparently have no such reservations. Shapiro told Kenny Roda (that awful hack who, somehow, broadcasts in afternoon drive on the only all-sports station in Cleveland) that the Tribe is definitely on the "Buyer" section of the ledger.

I love this organizational statement, but I don't think that there is one player (who is going to be available) that's going to join this team before the Yankees series. All the critics say, "Dolan won't spend money to go get a RH bat that can produce runs". Folks, if it was that easy, wouldn't most teams in the playoff chase just go down their grocery list and check off needs. The Yankees (the team with no limitations...and no prospects) just made the HUGE acquisition of Shawn Chacon to remedy their starting pitching woes. And people complain about Let's Hear It For Dubois not being a big name.

The trade that I think will be more likely is the Indians, dealing from a strength (bullpen), trading to another team in contention, who will also deal from a strength (offense).

So, who are these teams? The obvious is Texas, who apparently would like Hafner, Sizemore, and The Stick for Gary Matthews (do you think Hart is afraid of another Giles for Rincon deal?). However, John Hart's hair plugs must be invading his gray matter with his recent counter-proposals, regardless of how awful their pitching is, so they're out. Other options include Florida, the Angels and the Mets. While Mike Cameron and Juan Encarnacion are both veteran RH bats that can play RF, I'm not sure that the Metropolitans or the Fish would be willing to part with them.

If I were Shapiro, I would dangle Arthur Rhodes (not to be confused with his half brother Dusty Rhodes), Jose Hernandez, and maybe a Billy Traber and see if anyone bites. Another piece that could go as part of a package would be Benny B. Broussard might be attractive to a team in need of a good defensive 1B who has some power (Boston).

Losing those four players would not register under the "Seller" side to the fans (who are terrified of seeing that White Flag), particularly if you can add a nice bat. Rhodes can be replaced by Riske taking the Art role. Then Betancourt, Miller (when he returns), and Cabrera can combine with Sauerbeck to keep the pen strong. Kasey Blake can move into the role of Hernandez, which hopefully will mean less AB's with runners in scoring position for the farmboy. And Traber seems to have fallen behind not only Davis and Tallet, but also Carmona in the pecking order at AAA , so he may become bait (maybe they should mail out video of his masterpiece against the Yankees a few years ago). Broussard would be expendable if the Tribe brass felt that Garko was ready (not bloody likely) or if they felt Jason Dubois could carry the load.

I've started to look at the FA list for after 2005 and the pickings are slim and none. More on that later.

Why have Gammons' articles gone to the ESPN Insider? Is it because he's a Hall of Famer? What a crock! A man who made his name as a baseball WRITER is now only available on TV or for a monetary fee. And while I'm on ESPN.com, why do they break up those long stories (re: Sports Guy) into multiple pages or make it more effort to make it a single page view. No, keep it on multi-page view, I love it.

ESPN.com also listed 40 current players bound for the Hall. Of note, #14 The Baby Bull (plus this comment is great, "Prediction: Manny's Hall of Fame speech will be the shortest of all time.") and #39 Little O. Noticeably absent is the Thomenator, whose injuries may prevent from ultimately getting the numbers he needs. Had he only stayed and played DH until he hit his 600th, he would've seen #25 under #455 on the right pillars.

My computer illiterate mind figured out how to do links without listing the whole website's URL. Only took about 5 months to figure that out.

3 games out of the Wild Card with 59 games to go, 20 of which are against KC, Seattle, and TB.

All we need now is for Lou Brown to (magically and accurately) predict the number of wins needed to go to the playoffs and get a cut-out for the locker room, and it's on.

Some Tomahawks

• The blown save by Wickman was bound to happen. You can't dance on the edge of the cliff that frequently and never take an occasional fall. It did look like there were a few grounders hit that were just out of the reach of Broussard and Boone. Move those over a few feet and we've got a W.
• That being said, the Tribe just played the hottest team in the AL at home, and almost took the series. A C.C. meltdown notwithstanding, the Tribe played the A's at their own game and played them tough. Granted, we didn't see Rich Harden (who's on fire), but we also didn't throw Millwood or Lee.
• To watch the A's series (again, omit the C.C. debacle), it's easy to see how a team can be built on pitching and win the majority of their games. The starters were great, and the bullpen pitched well (until the 9th today). The A's beat them in the area that the Indians are still weak in - situational hitting. The amount of Indians left on base is staggering.
• I wish that this town would decide what kind of team they want. Back in the '90s, everybody said, "The offense is great, but pitching wins championships". Now, despite a solid pitching staff and some very promising young players, people seem to lament the fact that there isn't an All-Star at every position. NEWS FLASH - That's a good thing. Look at John Hart's Rangers - they're very exciting to watch because they play in 13-11 games on a regular basis. Remind you of anyone? I'll take Westbrook tossing 2 hit ball for 7 innings over empty offense anyday. The A's are a perfect example of how strong pitching and timely hitting by solid, but not necessarily spectacular, players can win ballgames and make the playoffs.
• Now, onto the elephant in the room: C.C. His start on Monday was an absolute train wreck. He started the game throwing nothing but fastballs (RockDawg's comment about how Zito said that the A's were sitting "Dead Red" is a telling sign), then suddenly threw nothing but breaking balls. He's shaking off pitches, he's not mixing pitches, he never throws change-ups, and (as always) he lets his emotions get in the way. His comments after the game that he's "forgotten how to pitch" and that he "doesn't know a good pitch from a bad pitch" reinforce the belief that the problems are all between his ears. It's certainly not physical - the fact that he's throwing 98 MPH regularly shows that there are no mechanical problems. What C.C. needs to do is skip a start (Davis' and Carmona's next scheduled starts in Buffalo coincide with Sabathia's next turn), throw a simulated game with Willis and Wedge (and Nagy?) to teach him game situations, then ease him back into the rotation. When he gets back, though, Wedge should call the entire game from the dugout and NOT allow C.C. to shake off pitches. Maybe he'll pick up how to mix pitches and locate his pitches better than he has. I don't think that sending C.C. to the minors is going to do much. C.C. would be able to blow away minor league hitters with a 98 MPH fastball, so he wouldn't learn how to pitch, he would just continue to throw hard. If that doesn't work, I'm at a loss for what can straighten out the ol' Crooked Cap. Maybe bring in Rick Sutcliffe or Moose Haas to talk to him?
• On to some lighter notes: Is Bobby Kielty the ugliest player in the Major Leagues? He looks like a clown. In fact, he has to be up there with some of the wierdest looking guys in sports. The ugliest guy, still, in the history of sports (in my lifetime) was a basketball player for N.C. State in the mid-90's. I don't know what his name was, but he was a point guard, and I would watch most NC State games just to try to figure out what was wrong with him.
• The rest of the A's look like a crowd from a Candlebox concert. They're all in the late 20's with scruffy hair, are unshaven, and look like they're more comfortable in a baggy flannel shirt than a baseball uniform. Have you ever noticed that the whole team is white? The only player that is not full blown caucasian is Eric Chavez, and he was born and raised in LA.
• The A's, wearing those white hightops, look like they're wearing the crappy shoes that every 5th grader wore in CYO back in the day. Why do they wear white shoes? Is there any other team that does it?
• Jeff Liefer had a nice debut, with an RBI double on Tuesday night. Looking at Liefer in the media guide made me wonder about his career stats against our own Kasey Blake (yes, that was misspelled for a reason). So here it is, Liefer's career numbers over 723 AB's vs. Kasey' career numbers over 1569 AB's:
• Liefer - .232 Average 30 HR 105 RBI .693 OPS
• Blake - .254 Average 58 HR 193 RBI .753 OPS
• Jeff Liefer, in about half of the AB's of Kasey Blake, averages out pretty comparitively. Plus, Liefer's a year younger. So what does this tell us, that Jeff Liefer is the answer in RF? Certainly not, but neither is Kasey.
• So where do we go with the position players for 2006, namely RF, 1B, and possibly 2B and LF? Forget about 3B, Boone needs 500 AB's to vest his 2006 option, and he's over 300.
• The way that I see it, I would target a run-producing RF and a more consistent 2B in the offseason. Let Belliard, Broussard, Hernandez and Bard go. Let Ryan Garko take over at 1B (with a contingency plan), allow Jake Gatreau and Blake to play infield utility (I know that we would lack a back-up SS, maybe Ramon Vazquez). Get a C who can actually hit to give the Stick an occasional night off (or at least an Eddie Perez type). And, if it's possible I would look for a LF, only if he's an upgrade over Coco.
• On the pitching staff, I would sign Millwood (now, if he'll entertain offers) for about 3-4 years at $9-$10 million a year. That way, you pencil Millwood, Lee, Westbrook, C.C. (I hope), and Davis (or whomever) into the rotation. Elarton pitched his way out of Cleveland the past two months. I would try to sign Wickman again and let some of the young arms in Buffalo meld with some holdovers and some new arms to form the pen.
• Can you tell what I think about in bed when a Tribe game is going on? And don't tell me to take a nap so I can stay up. It's not a good scene when you come home from work, have dinner with the wife, then take a nap, only to wake up when she's going to bed. That formula is not in the marriage handbook for success.

This crucial 10 game set (which goes through the Yankees series) can still finish at 6-4, but the Seattle series has to be pretty one-sided (in the Indians favor, of course).

Matsafooey Yamamori, of the Hank Yu Braves - on top of the wall...and OUT!

Concession of the Central

To say that the Indians conceded the AL Central this weekend is not entirely true. The White Sox went out and took away any chance that the Indians had of making a run at the division. They did so with their superior pitching, defense, and timely hitting. While the Indians left an alarming amount of runners on base, it seemed that every White Sox player that got to second (or first for that matter) scored. The Sox are a very good team who do most everything correctly in their victories, by making very few mistakes and capitalizing on ANY and ALL opportunities afforded to them.

The bats have gone silent again, and typically at the worst times. GIDP's are becoming more frequent (usually after the leadoff hitter of an inning gets on) and the patience that was the hallmark of the lineup during their hot June is gone. No White Sox pitcher was forced to throw a lot of pitches the way that C.C. was on Friday (comments on C.C. and his emotions are an upcoming topic), and it was apparent as the Chicago starters dominated what looked like an overmatched team.

Not a great start to the second half, but as our little red-headed friend said, "the sun will come out tomorrow", in the form of the Royals, then the Mariners. An 0-4 start to a homestand could still end up at 5-6 or 6-5. And, the Twins haven't exactly put a winning streak together to pull away in the Wild Card, while the AL East continues to batter each other. The Tribe is still very much in this (despite the humiliating sweep), but they need to cure what ails them in a hurry, before the Wild Card becomes a distant memory.

All indications from different sources indicate the discussions to acquire that desired RH bat (Soriano, Mench, Kearns, Pena, Randa, Alou) are not going very well. Most articles that address the issue end with phrases like, "it doesn't look like anything is going to get done soon".

Matt Miller hit the DL on Saturday and, after a little Buffalo shuffle, prized prospect Fausto Carmona joined the parent club (presumably until Rocky Betancourt is ready). This was an interesting move in that there are more experienced relievers in Buffalo (Brown, Robbins, Diaz) that were passed over to give Carmona a look. Now the two pitching prospects most confused for each other, Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona (also two of the brighter prospects), will be taking some throws in the CF pen. Could this be precursor to trading a veteran bullpener, to see what the young guys can do to determine if Howry, Riske, or Rhodes is expendable?

After a loss on Friday night, I'm passing up tickets to Tuesday and Thursday's games to do my part.

Indians Fever feels more like a hangover right now.

Prospect Update

With the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft happening today (which I've never heard anyone refer to as their Christmas), I thought it would be interesting to see what the Tribe's Top 10 Prospects, as determined this off-season by Baseball America, are faring in the 2005 campaign.

1. Adam Miller RHP - Currently on the DL in Kinston, with an eye for a return in the near future. This 20 year old, whose fast track to Cleveland has hit a little road bump, needs to prove that he is healthy before continuing his seemingly obvious trip to Jacobs Field.
2. Michael Aubrey 1B - Also currently on the DL in Akron after playing 27 games, hitting .288 with 4 HR and 19 RBI. A modestly impressive OPS of .816 shows that Aubrey can certainly hit, if he can only stay healthy. BA's timetable of a midseason call-up to Buffalo with an eye to challenging Broussard in 2006 may be premature.
3. Franklin Gutierrez OF - AGAIN, currently on the DL in Akron after playing 44 games, hitting a paltry.238 with 3 HR and 17 RBI. His OPS, a miserable of .694 (though not bad when compared to some in the Tribe lineup) may be an indication that Gutierrez tried to play through pain unsuccessfully. Again, he may still full need another full season in the minors before challenging the mighty Coco Crisp (wait, what?).
4. Brad Snyder OF - Hitting .274 in Kinston, with 5 HR and 24 RBI is less than what the Tribe expects from this former 1st round pick, who continues to develop rather slowly. The hope is that his body will fill out, transforming him into a corner outfielder; but it doesn't look like that's happened yet for the Ball State grad.
5. Jeremy Sowers LHP - The 2004 first rounder has impressed at Kinston, with a 7-3 record and a 2.63 ERA. He's also punched out 65 batters in 61 2/3 innings while posting a 1.04 WHIP. Look for Sowers to move up to Akron as the season goes on and the parent club dips into the minors for some help.
6. Fausto Carmona RHP - Currently 4-4 in Akron's rotation, posting a 3.89 ERA and the opposition hitting .262 against him. Though still only 21, his fast track has hit a snag in Akron, where he's spending another year. If Buffalo loses someone in the rotation, look for Carmona to get the call-up, but some feel that his stuff may translate better in the bullpen for the future.
7. Fernando Cabrera RHP - The last man out of the pen in Spring Training has pitched like a man possessed in Buffalo, posting a 5-0 record, a 0.84 ERA, 43 K's in 32 IP, and an improbable WHIP of 0.91! He's doing it as the set-up man for Jake Robbins, so he's not ready to close just yet. But those numbers are hard to ignore. Cabrera's monster start in Buffalo gives the parent club some options to possibly move a bullpen piece for some offense (more on that later). Cabrera should be in Cleveland at some point before the All-Star break. Does anyone else get Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona mixed up, or am I the only one who lies awake at night trying to remember which is which?
8. Ryan Garko C/1B - His right handed stick continues to mash, though at a lesser pace than last year, compiling 8 HR and 28 RBI in 52 games. His average of .250 could certainly use some work, but his OPS of .786 keeps him in the discussion. The big problem with Garko is that he is blocked at the ML level by some long-term contract players. He is first a C (The Stick), then a DH (Le Pronk), and finally a decent 1B (Broussard). The Tribe brass will struggle to find a spot for Garko, but let's hope that his hitting forces his bat down I-90 into a spot (right-handed, no less) into the lineup.
9. Nick Pesco RHP - Currently 6-4 with a 3.45 ERA in the Kinston starting rotation, Pesco has adapted well to High A hitters and should tag along with Sowers on the path to Akron as the season progresses.
10. Andrew Brown RHP - Brown has disappointed in Buffalo, going 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA. There are other arms in Buffalo who have passed Brown up in the pecking order for a bullpen arm, notably Kaz Tadano and Chad Zerbe (a lefty).

Having impressive seasons thus far, but missing from the list from each level (AAA to High A) are:

Buffalo - Jake Gatreau, 3B, who was acquired for Corey Smith from the Padres in a swap of 1st Round Busts. All Jake has done is hit .295 with 11 HR and 30 RBI, while posting a .891 OPS. While the Aaron Boone Experiment (good name for a band) continues, Gatreau is blocked; but keep your eye on this 3B.

Akron - Dan Denham, P, who is 4-2 in Akron, with a 2.98 ERA and the opposition batting .198 against him. Denham, a former 1st round pick, may find himself leap-frogging some of the pitchers listed above if he continues his solid year.

Kinston - Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, is another purveyor of the hot corner in the bushes who is impressing early on in the 2005 campaign. Hitting .346 with 9 HR and 45 RBI in 49 games is not even the most impressive stat. His OPS tops the 1000 plateau, sitting at 1.014! With Akron's offense struggling, Kouzmanoff shoud get the call to come up north soon.

In response to What Can Be Done of yesterday, I ran across an interesting trade proposal from the Indians Compendium (http://www.insidethecomp.blogspot.com) a couple of days ago. He writes:
The Phillies Get:
RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez
The Indians Get:
2B/3B Placido Polanco
All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Makes sense to me, but staying up to watch the Tribe play the Padres until 1AM doesn't. Looks like Casey Coleman will have to let me know the results at 7:40.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part IV

Starting Pitching
The addition of Kevin Millwood should be the main determining factor in the role of the starting pitching in the AL Central race. Millwood's health as the season progresses will determine whether the Indians stay with Minnesota for the Central or have to depend on young arms to carry the burden. Oblique muscle notwithstanding, C.C. Sabathia remains the "ace" of the rotation, if only because he has the highest cieling and seems to embrace the thought of being a true No. 1. If reports are to be believed, C.C. is in the best shape of his life and is ready to tackle the opponents' ace every 5. There is no questioning C.C.'s stuff, but he must become mentally tougher to establish himself as an elite pitcher. Though he is still young, Sabathia often lapses into mental mistakes and lets his emotions get the best of him, affecting his performance negatively. This year should decide whether the Indians approach Sabathia with a long-term deal (a la Johan Santana) or let C.C. ride out his current contract. Here's hoping that Sabathia enters that elite status and carries the Tribe during his starts as he is capable of doing.
Jake Westbrook parlayed a few tremendous middle relief outings into an exceptional 2004 season. When his sinker is working, Westbrook gets ground ball outs while working quickly and efficiently. If Westbrook is cruising, expect a game under 2 1/2 hours at the park. The loss of Omar may affect Jake the most as Jhonny Peralta is an unproven commodity as SS. Boone, Belliard, and Broussard are all solid defenders, but Westbrook is so dependent upon good fielding that the loss of Omar's ability to get to the hole may affect Westbrook's performance in 2005. Kevin Millwood steps into the 3 spot with less expectations than a Matt Clement or Jon Lieber, but also less certainty about his health. If Millwood is healthy, his signing is a major coup for the Tribe as he is a veteran innings-eater who learned at the knees of the Big 3 in Atlanta. His tutelage could be vital to the development of some of the Indians' young arms. However, if Millwood is not healthy, he pushes everyone behind him in the rotation up and puts more pressure on Cliff Lee, Scott Elarton, and Jason Davis/Brian Tallett/Billy Traber/whoever. And that "whoever" is big because Millwood's presence stabilizes the rotation and allows everyone to settle into their "spot", just as Bob Wickman does in the bullpen.
Cliff Lee lived through 2 seasons last year that saw him cruise through the All-Star break, only to completely break down for the stretch run. The experience that the lefty must build upon is a strong finish to last year, which will hopefully lead to a strong start and increased confidence. The innings and experience under his belt from last year can only help as he makes his push to be a solid 2 or 3 in the rotation of the future.
Scott Elarton, who was pulled off of the scrap heap last year to perform adequately for the Tribe, is a potential solid 5. His delivery scares some as he has experienced mechanics problems in the past, but as long as he can keep the Indians in the games that he pitches against the other number 5's, he is a bargain.
Waiting in the immediate wings are Jason Davis, who will get his shot with Sabathia's oblique injury, Brian Tallet, who impressed in Spring Training, Billy Traber, who is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Kyle Denney, still trying to shake off the go-go boot incident (just kidding), Jason Stanford, another Tommy John victim, Jeremy Guthrie, who after being derailed last year is still trying to justify his signing bonus, and Francisco Cruceta, whose temperment may keep him in Buffalo or make him part of a package. Some of those pitchers, notably Davis and Tallet, may translate to the pen as time progresses.
On the horizon are Fausto Carmona, who may also eventually end up in the pen, Adam Miller, the shelved Golden Boy of the organization, Brian Slocum, J.D. Martin, Jake Dittler, and Jeremy Sowers, last year's first-round pick.
Bullpen
After last year, it couldn't get worse...could it? Not with this year's revamped bullpen, of course assuming that Bob Wickman can stay healthy. The bullpen begins with Wickman, who is out to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season. His saves aren't pretty, but he is effective and his presence allows the rest of the bullpen to sort itself out into defined roles. Setting up for Wick will be Bob Howry, who was impressive last year after coming off an injury. Howry will step in for Wickman if need be, though let's hope he doesn't have to. The presence of Scott Sauerbeck and Arthur Rhodes give the Indians something they were sorely lacking last year, a veteran lefty who can come in to get one guy out, Paul Assenmacher style. After suffering through Scott Stewart, then Cliff Bartosh, one of the two of Sauerbeck and Rhodes has to step up to take some pressure off of the rest of the bullpen. The guess here is that Rhodes will return to his Seattle form, now that the lofty expectations of Billy Beane are far away. Rhodes' salary should be enough to make sure he sticks around. The rest of the bullpen is what remains from the disaster of last year. David Riske, who proved that he can't close, will be back doing what he does best: working the 7th inning effectively. Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt won the final two spots in the pen this Spring, after a spirited run by Brian Tallet. Miller, the bespeckled sidearmer, is particularly effective against righties while lefties seem to crush him. Betancourt lives his life throwing strikes, for better or worse. Both should do well in their new roles, to which they are better suited than setting up and closing (which they did last year).
Should injuries or ineffectiveness get to the pen, help is not far away. Brian Tallet's strong Spring should tranlate into his name being the first called in a pinch. Sabathia's return could mean the return of Davis to the pen, where his stuff and his tempermant are better suited. Davis, with some seasoning, could turn into another Joe Nathan, capable of closing games very effectively. Another potential closer in the organization is Fernando Cabrera, whose lights-out stuff hasn't translated in the bigs yet. Also just a phone call away are Kaz Tadano, who seems to be the only Japanese reliever not instantly successful in America, and Andrew Brown, a big righty acquired in the Milton Bradley deal who needs to learn how to relieve in the minors for a while.

Whew, with that out of the way, next up is predictions and random thoughts, which will be more in line with the flavor of the blog.