HRD (Home Run Derby)

With the Tribe taking 4 in a row from the Tigers, it's amazing that the last 15 runs scored by the Tribe have all come on home runs. All of that with Jhon and Pronk in extended slumps. To show how prevalent the HR has become recently, Casey Blake knocked his 20th HR today!

Before Wednesday's game, The Architect (Shapiro) was on the radio with some interesting insight. The thing about Shapiro's comments is that you often have to read between the lines for his true meaning. The high points and some thoughts:

• Shapiro said that SuperSizemore projected to eventually become a 25 to 30 HR guy, "once his power comes around". He also said that Grady will become the "prototypical #3 hitter". Let's think about this, Grady is having one of the most exciting seasons in recent Indians history, particularly for a 23 year old. Adding 25-30 HR power to what he's already shown may make Gammons sound prophetic when he said earlier in the season that the American League should write Grady's name in for CF in the All-Star Game for the next 10 years! Shapiro's other comment that Grady was the prototypical #3 hitter blew me away. Not in that it was a surprise, but let's do some math. How many current Indians are legitimate #3 or #4 hitters? I count 4 (SuperSizemore, Jhon, Pronk, and Tthe Stick) with another solid young hitter in Coco. I think that makes up 5 of the 9 batters in the lineup. With that kind of talent in the lineup for the next few years, other players (like Boone and Belliard) don't have to be spectacular, only solid. If they do, however, add one more big bat, we're on our way to watching an offensive juggernaut.
  
  
• When asked about Sticky's future, Shapiro said that he'll first find out if Wickman wants to come back. If he does, the Indians will determine if Wickman fits into their plans. When asked about moving a young arm to the closer role, Shapiro firmly stated that the closer role is not one that he would entrust to a youngster. He went on to say that if Wickman did not return, there were some solid options already in the Tribe pen. Translation: Wickman is unlikely to return (either by his choice or the Tribe's choice) and Shapiro will keep someone that he's comfortable with (saw pitch this year) to close games effectively (Howry/Rhodes). He also said that the bullpen's success will be difficult to duplicate. But you have to think that there's only three guys eligible for FA (Wickman, Howry, Sauerbeck). If they bring back Howry and sign a situational lefty, there's Cabrera, Brown, Miller, Tadano, and possibly Davis battling for one spot.
  
  
• Shapiro said that Peralta is going through an adjustment period as pitchers have now seen him and know what he's been successful against. It's now up to Peralta to adjust (as he has at every level to become a consistent presence in the lineup). Coincidentally, it was mentioned in today's PD that Peralta has been to the postseason for the past 5 years in the minors. Did someone say something about an environment of winning?
  

Enough of Shapiro-speak and analysis.

Today's PD also mentioned that with the Tribe likely to pick up Jelly Belliard's option, the only spot for Brandon Phillips next year (when he's out of options) is as a utility IF. Is anyone upset about this? I realize that B-Phil was the big name in the Colon deal, but if he doesn't work out (and it doesn't look like he's going to), are we upset? We only got an All Star LH starter and Stud CF in the deal. I have no problem cutting ties with Phillips this offseason and seeing if we can get something for him, while his stock may still be relatively high.

There's a good analysis of off-season questions, as well as how perceptions and realities change quickly in the analysis of players in Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times.

After a long weekend in Chicago (where I'll miss the Tribe, Buckeyes, and Browns - but will see a baptism), I'll analyze the holes for the 2006 season and the best way to fill them, pitting building from within against adding Free Agents.

On another Cleveland sports-related note, as if the Browns weren't up enough this season, here's more bad news.

Tampa Bay's up 2-0 in the 5th. If the D-Rays hold on, the Tribe moves into first place, all alone, for the Wild Card, with 22 left to play. The Tribe stands at 79-61 with a legitimate shot at 92-95 wins.

At the Break II

After the enthralling Midsummer Classic last night (has anything good happened in the All Star Game in the last 20 years outside of Bo Jackson and Sandy Alomar's HR in the Jake?), it's one more night without baseball.

You would think the PD would have an analysis on the first half today, but nothing. Maybe Hoynes is getting it together for tomorrow, or maybe they'll do a big piece on Doug Johnson (the new backup QB). We wonder why the town hasn't embraced this team yet and you have to look no further at the negativity and overall lack of optimism in the local sports page. People read the same sarcastic comments from the luminaries at the PD and scoff at the progress being made. Don't even get me started on WKNR.

This perception that Dolan is a cheapskate (despite the Tribe spending the most of any ML team on player development in the past few years) is truly ignorant. People rant and rave that Omar and Thome and Manny aren't here, neglecting to remember that Dolan offered Manny $18M to stay here, Shapiro was right on the length of Thome's contract because of his back, and Peralta is a budding star at age 23.

Let's look at what we would have if we had kept that "Golden Era" team intact (just counting the players still in the league):

• Manny - too much $, remember the Sawx tried to cut him
• Thome - will be unproductive for the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2008
• Omar - the Giants are already trying to move him, and he's under contract until he's 41
• Lofton - once he lost his legs, was exposed as an athlete playing baseball
• Sean Casey - would look nice here, but has no power
• Sexson - again, would look nice here, but not for his contract
• Giles - a mistake
• Colon - I'd make that trade every day and twice on Tuesdays
• Sandy - a backup catcher

Who am I missing? Where have you gone Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Matt Williams, Travis Fryman, Robby Alomar?

There's such a thing as fiscal responsibility in baseball. That's why what the Indians are doing is the right way to approach building a baseball team. Call it the Atlanta Braves method: develop home-grown talent and add pieces, where needed, to put a consistent product on the field. Is anyone arguing that the Braves do it correctly? Right now, the Indians are at the stage where they're developing young talent and finding out what they have before adding the needed pieces.

As as been said many times, it's time for the fans of this town to turn the page and embrace this team. Root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back.

Moving on to the pitchers, here's what the starters are on pace to achieve:
The stats are listed as Wins - Losses - ERA - K's - WHIP
C.C. Sabathia
11 - 9 - 4.50 - 129 - 1.33
Kevin Millwood
5 - 13 - 3.58 - 133 - 1.30
Jake Westbrook
11-20 - 4.67 -127 - 1.23
Cliff Lee
17 - 7 - 3.89 - 145 - 1.31
Scott Elarton
11 - 5 - 4.72 - 114 - 1.31

The Sticky one is on pace for 42 saves. Looking at these numbers, you can't help but be optimistic for the second half. No way that Westbrook continues his losing, or Millwood doesn't get W's.

Biggest Surprise:
The consistency of Lee and Elarton has given the Indians a shot all 5 days of the rotation. Expect Lee to get Westbrook money in the off-season, with Elarton getting a long look.

Pitching MVP:
Wicky gives balance to the strong bullpen and, though he quickens the heart rate, gets the job done.

Biggest Disappointment:
The Crooked Cap, in a landslide. I can't get into it right now, or it will ruin my night. Just for a snapshot, look at C.C.'s numbers against Elarton's.

Enjoy the second half. Against the protests of everyone, I'll be in the stands for the first game of the White Sox series tomorrow.

At the Break

With the Indians pulling into the station at 47-41, I decided to look at the rest of the schedule to attempt to predict an overall record. If the Tribe keeps up their current pace (.534 winning percentage), we're looking at a 86-76 record. However, as has been noted before, 31 of the final 74 come against KC, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. If we take 2 out of every 3 of those games and play .500 ball against the rest of the schedule (a pretty conservative estimate), the record would look like this:
47-41 Current Record
21-10 Against the dregs of the AL
22-21 Against the rest of the schedule
90-72 Final Record

I think that the 90-72 comes about after a pretty conservative approach. I don't know if that record is good enough to win the Wild Card, but it puts us right there "in contention" (those 2 magic words that the naysayers have been throwing in Shapiro's face since the Colon deal). We have to remember that this is a maturing team, taking steps in the right direction. I'd rather have the team take progressive steps towards the playoffs, as opposed to one big leap (like the ChiSox this year) and be destined to be knocked out in the first round (like the Mariners of the 116 win season). That way, when it's time to contend for the World Series (and not just the playoffs) the team has been through a few battles together, ready for the war.

Since baseball is a statistic driven sport, here's the breakdown, by position, of what we can expect from the Tribe players (assuming they keep their current pace). I kept it to the regulars for position players:
(Numbers shown are Average - HR - RBI - OPS)
C
Victor Martinez
.236 - 16 - 64 - .692
1B
Ben Broussard
.255 - 16 - 65 - .750
2B
Ronnie Belliard
.283 - 14 - 63 - .740
SS
Jhonny Peralta
.297 - 20 - 60 - .874
3B
Aaron Boone
.211 - 16 - 57 - .628
LF
Coco Crisp
.297 - 14 - 60 - .806
CF
Grady Sizemore
.287 - 16 - 74 - .810
RF
Casey Blake
.228 - 18 - 53 - .697
Jody Gerut
.276 - 2 - 20 - .741
DH
Travis Hafner
.319 - 33 - 116 - 1.020

What's alarming about the numbers is how similar they are. Look at how many players are on pace to hit between 14 and 20 homers and have 55 to 65 RBI! Despite different players getting hot and cold, everyone's numbers are very similar.

Biggest Surprise:
The development of SuperSizemore and Jhon has been astounding. Had Peralta been anywhere in the lineup, other than behind Boone and Blake, he and Sizemore (who is driving those runs in from the leadoff spot!) would be on pace to be the second and third run producers on this team. And they began the season as 22 year olds!

Offensive MVP:
Not a surprise, but unbelievable to watch is Pronk (the AL Player of the Month for June AND the Player of the Week for the first week in July). Look at those projected numbers, and if he stays this hot, they could go higher! The only thing that reminds me of Pronk's hot streak was when Joey Belle used the HR Derby as a launching point for his 50 HR/50 2B season. Vive Le Pronque!

Biggest Disappointment:
Besides the obvious choice of Boone's anemic start, The Stick's inability to protect Pronk has hurt this lineup badly. Victor is finally starting to get some consistency, but he's going to have to step it up even more to protect our MVP candidate. His numbers are way off from last year's breakout campaign. Broussard has better numbers (even Boone's HR & RBI numbers are there), while people rail about how we are getting no production from the corners.

Also interesting to see is that the RF platoon of Blake and Gerut is on pace for 20 HR and 75 RBI. Not bad numbers, though it's obvious we need a stick to be in the ballpark of 25 HR and 100RBI somewhere in the lineup.

Tomorrow, we'll take a look at the pitchers.

On another note, Z and Hughes are in the fold, but there's only $6M to get a PG (Daniels is looking for $5M) and a big body to intimidate in the paint. In Danny We Trust?

Enjoy the All Star Game. I watched Bottle Rocket, a classic film (the first one made by Wes Anderson, who made Rushmore) that I TIVOed last week instead of the mockery that is the HR Derby. Thank God for TIVO.

My Bad

After attending the first full 3 game series of my life (that is, I was at all 3 Red Sox games), and watching the Tribe get swept, I am banning myself for some time from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. I'm 1-5 this season. Maybe going to a Reds game this weekend will change the luck.

With a lot of disappointment (that I'm still getting over) I thought I'd go with some non-game related hits:

• The Indians hats should look like this, http://www.lids.com/pid/20027032. I don't know why there is an "I" on their hats, we're not Indianapolis Indians. I prefer the script "C". The only change I would make to this hat is replace the Chief Wahoo with the old Chief Wahoo logo, seen in the inner circle of this hat, http://www.lids.com/pid/20019893. In fact, that full body Chief Wahoo should replace the oversized red head on the left chest of the home jerseys and the sleeves of all the jerseys as well. So, maybe I spend too much time thinking about this stuff, but this is my team.
• Anybody have any other suggestions for the Indians' unis? Why can't I get a forum to share my thoughts with the Tribe marketing department?
• Watching the new graphics on FSN is confusing and too full of sound effects. I feel like I'm playing a video game. If I wanted to play NHL '95 (the finest game ever made, outside of Tecmo Bowl), I'd plug it in and continue my season with the Boston Bruins.
• Also, if I see that commercial for the BDSSP with Jimmy Fallon saying, "That's not cool, Salley", or the Jimmy Fallon look-alike (with the bad mustache) telling his boss that "perfection takes time", sitting in a b-dubs, I'm going to throw up.
• TB's story about Grady Sizemore is a classic. Why is it that everytime I see Grady on the field, he reminds of the young Moonlight Graham character from Field of Dreams? He looks like he's 12, facing 30 year olds. I'm waiting for Ray Liotta to ask him if he thinks the next pitch is going to be low and away or in his ear. "Think low and away, but watch out for in your ear."
• The Batter's Eye Bar has EXPLODED and is THE place to be during a game, but why not open the two picnic type areas during the game to make it even more of a party atmosphere?
• Looking at the Media Guide, here's a quick question: How many Tribe players, on the roster today, were developed by the Indians?...4! Sabathia and Riske were drafted and Peralta and The Stick were non-drafted free agents.
• That means the rest of the roster is made up of free agent signings or players Shapiro acquired in trades. Which led me to the next question: Finding the cupboard bare when he became GM, who did Shapiro trade to get the current players?...David Justice (Jake), Richie Sexson (Wicky), Jacob Cruz (Gerut and Bard), Russell Branyan (Broussard), Bartolo Colon (Grady and Lee), Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (Hafner), Chuck Kitaen (Coco), and Robbie Alomar (Arthur Rhodes, by way of Matt Lawton). Sure Sexson would look good in a Tribe uni, but the proof is in the pudding. Shapiro has made some great trades to form this current roster. Sure, there are some duds (Scott Stewart for Ryan Church comes to mind), but I'll take that track record.

The sweep at the hands of the Sawx, while disheartening, only shows that the Indians are close; but are not there yet. They're beating up on the teams they should (Rockies, D-Backs), but haven't yet figured out how to battle the really good teams (Sox of both varieties, Angels, and even the Twins). They're on the right track though.

At the beginning of the homestand, I said that 38-35 was the worst case scenario and that 40-33 was the goal. A sweep of the Reds accomplishes the 40-33 and only a complete meltdown (losing 2 of 3 to the Reds) brings about the worst case. The conclusion of the homestand should put the team in a nice place.

With the Reds (and presumably, GM Dan O'Brien) in town for the series, could this be the forum to get a young RH outfielder (Kearns or Wily Mo, who for some reason are both on the trading block)?

I'm working up an organizational depth chart that should be finished soon. With all of the player movement in the minors, I thought it would be good to have an easy place to go to answer the question, "Who do we have in the minors at 3B?"

A Right-Handed Solution?

Mired in a 3 for 36 slump, Austin Kearns was optioned to AAA Louisville by the Reds yesterday, clearing the way for Wily Mo Pena. Could Kearns be the answer to play right field and be the right handed bat that the Indians' lineup lack? Keep in mind that this is the same player that put the kibosh on the Bartolo Colon to the Reds trade (thank God), he just turned 25 (to put this in perspective, Crisp will be 26 this winter, Gerut is 27, Blake is 31, and Broussard is 28)! Kearns has a lifetime OPS of .815 in 304 games, with 43 HR in what amounts to about the equivalent of 2 seasons. Despite being in a slump, Kearns has 5 HR and 25 RBI this year, which would be at the top end of the Tribe 2005 stats.

So the question is: if the Reds were willing to part with Kearns (their outfield of Dunn, Griffey, and Pena seems set unless they move Casey and Dunn plays 1B), what would they want? The easy answer is young starting pitching, or possibly a young 3B. Would the Tribe be willing to part with Traber, Tallet, or Cruceta AND a minor league 3B, possibly Gatreau or Osborn? This may turn into one of those Drese for Hafner deals, where both teams trade from their strengths. If that does happen, I can only hope for a Drese-Hafner redux type trade for the Tribe.

Great game to watch tonight as the Indians beat the Colorado Springs Sky Sox, I mean the Rockies. These are the games they should win though, particularly with a 12 year old toeing the bump for the Rockies.

Snakebitten

Westbrook's bad luck continued last night as the Fatolo Colon shut down the Tribe's bats, running Jake's record to 0-4. This despite a 3.81 ERA, a WHIP of 1.04, and 2 complete games. Outside of his one hiccup, he's been very steady and the worm will turn for him. Let's hope it's sooner rather than later.

Some items of note I saw on the Tribe Website (which annoyingly asks me to download Macromedia Flash THREE times every time I go on the site):
-Tribe is last in AL in Batting Average and RBI's (on a related note, also Runs)
-Tribe is 2nd last in AL in OPS (only Jose Hernandez is over .800, at a blistering .802)
-Tribe is 2nd best in AL in team ERA (behind the ChiSox)
-Tribe is 3rd best in AL in team WHIP (behind Minnesota and ChiSox)

The bats have to turn around. Don't they? Last year, the offense cruised while the bullpen blew up. When will everything come together all at once?

On another note, the Cavs fired Jim Paxson today, giving a sense of closure to The Collapse. Watching the scores last night and hearing that the Cavs would not be in the playoffs, it made me think:

People in their 50's often say that they remember exactly where they were when JFK was killed, then a later generation knew where they were when the Challenger exploded (Miss Vercilleno's 3rd grade classroom).
As a long suffering Cleveland sports fan, there are certain events that I can pinpoint where I was. Though they certainly pale in social significance to the events listed above, I can clearly remember where I was for The Drive, The Fumble, and The Shot (all in my old house's family room), Game 7 (236 Kiefaber, Dayton OH), and when the Ping Pong ball turned up for the Cavs to get LeBron (in my current kitchen, listening to the TV in the other room). I don't think The Collapse makes this list. Are there any events that I'm missing? Where were you when these things happened?
After The Shot happened, I ran up to my bedroom to tear down all of my Jordan posters and ripped up my Air Jordan Flight Club Membership Card. After Paul Alten told me that the Browns had moved (in my freshman year dorm room, Sheehy Hall 3rd floor), I tore my Browns shirts and posters apart in a fit of rage.

As I write this the bases are loaded in the first against Washburn (a solid lefty, something we've struggled against). Hernandez just hit bases-clearing double. God, I love this game. There's some run support K-Mill.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part III

Outfield
With the recent move of Juan Gonzalez to the DL, the outfield remains a fluid area, where 4 players will fill the outfield, changing positions according to whether the team is facing a righty or a lefty. The 4 players in question: Coco Crisp, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Ludwick all bring different skills to the table, thus giving different looks to the lineup. Crisp is the prototypical leadoff hitter (with the exception of his limited number of walks and SB efficiency) in that he is a slap hitter with speed and occasional pop. While he does not walk very often, he has proven himself as legitimate MLB player by outlasting the Alex Escobar Experiment and Sizemore's promotion in 2004. Crisp had a phenomenal spring and should continue to grow as a player as he gets a better understanding of base-stealing. His acquisition as a throw-in for Chuck Finley (where have you gone, Luis Garcia?) remains one of Shapiro's great coups. Blake moves to the outfield after a stellar 2004 campaign at 3B. In the spring, he seems to be acclimating himself well to the outfield, both in his throwing and his attitude. After knocking around the minors for many years, Blake got his chace with the Tribe and took full advantage. After the acquisition of Boone, Blake turned it up a notch, forcing his name into any discussion regarding the future of the team. Though he strikes out more than most in the lineup, he is a steady contributor necessary on a team with a limited payroll. Sizemore, who may be the jewel of the Colon theft of 2002, is a promising player who needs more experience to fulfill his potential. Though there is no one area in which he truly excels, he is a solid, hard-nosed player who should be a mainstay for years to come. Gonzalez's move to the DL did not disappoint many, particularly those who felt that Sizemore simply needed more time to acclimate himself to big league pitching (see Martinez, Victor). Ludwick is the wild card of this group as he has never provem that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. When given the opportunity to be in the lineup, Ludwick has produced and gives the Tribe a possible right-handed run producer. It will be interesting to see how Ludwick and Sizemore, two Wedge favorites, are handled IF Gonzalez recovers from whatever ailment is bothering him that day.

The outfield should look like this: against righties, Crisp in left, Sizemore in center, Blake in right; against lefties, Blake in left, Crisp in center, Ludwick in right. How the players, particularly Crisp and Blake, will handle playing multiple positions may ultimately determine is Sizemore stays in Cleveland for a while or is sent to Buffalo for consistent AB's. Also in the mix is Jose Hernandez, who can bring pop to the lineup when any of the outfielders may need a break. The X Factor is Jody Gerut, who burst on the scene in 2003, but fizzled in 2004 with his season ultimately ending in injury. His beginning the 2004 season as the 3 hitter to not being assured a spot in the lineup when he returns is a testament to the depth and strength of this area of the ballclub.

In the minors, Buffalo is stocked with mainly veterans, while Akron is stacked with Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Jason Cooper. Other outfield prospects include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski who will probably start the year in Kinston. Again, this is a deep position for the Indians, one which can be dipped into as trade bait as time goes on.