Things Fall Apart - The Leaky Pen

In the indefatigable search for what has gone wrong with this Indians’ season, once so full of hope, a few immediate reasons have as much carry as a Josh Hamilton bomb into the New York night – most notably the bullpen, injuries to key players, the effects of organizational inactivity in the off-season, and the regression of certain non-injured offensive players. With the All-Star Break upon us, I thought it would be a good idea to start this series by examining a portion of the team that has so obviously contributed to the dreadfulness of the 2008 season – YOUR 2008 Hellpen.

Before getting too deep into this, let’s take a quick walk down memory lane and look at the members of the 2007 Indians’ Postseason Bullpen…you remember, the one that contributed to the ALDS defeat of the Bronx Bombers and nearly beat the eventual Champions in the Fall Classic:
Joe Borowski
Rafael Betancourt
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Tom Mastny
Aaron Laffey
Aaron Fultz

Some familiar names, no?
Inconceivably, the players that locked down the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of the 2007 season, allowing the Tribe to run away with the AL Central and make a strong push in the playoffs, are essentially the same culprits that completely blew up (to a man) in the 2008 season, throwing gas on the smoldering flames of the Indians’ season, greasing the team’s descent from the top of the division to the cellar, seemingly armed only with kerosene-soaked meatballs.

If these are the same players, how did such a severe drop across the board occur so completely? I know that bullpens are volatile entities, full of players who are relievers for a reason (whether their career as a starter stalled or their mastery of pitches ended with two), but to see what happened in 2007 compared to what we’ve been subjected to boggles the mind. And maybe that’s where we should start with this thing, to compare the stats from last year’s bullpen that allowed the team to close out the AL Central in style to this year’s incarnation, which is ingloriously looking UP at the KC Royals in mid-July.

The rankings in parentheses are where the bullpens of each year ranked among the 14 AL teams:
ERA
2007 – 3.73 (4th of 14)
2008 – 5.13 (14th of 14)

WHIP
2007 – 1.33 (5th of 14)
2008 - 1.51 (13th of 14)

Batting Average Against
2007 - .254 (7th of 14)
2008 - .277 (14th of 14)

OPS Against
2007 - .707 (4th of 14)
2008 - .796 (14th of 14)

K/BB
2007 – 2.51 (1st of 14)
2008 – 1.91 (9th of 14)

Losses
2007 – 17 (4th least of 14)
2008 – 19 (2nd most of 14)

Saves
2007 – 49 (most of 14)
2008 – 15 (least of 14)

Save Percentage
2007 – 78% - 49 of 63 (2nd of 14)
2008 – 52% - 15 of 29 (14th of 14)

Going from the top half (or in the case of K/BB and saves, from the top) in 2007 to near or at the absolute bottom of the AL in EVERY relevant category a year later doesn’t qualify as getting knocked down a few notches or seeing a slight regression.
No, no…it is something far more horrible and drastic.

Looking at those numbers give credence to the feeling that watching the 2008 bullpen devolve into the bloody mess that they find themselves in has been reminiscent of watching a horrifying downhill ski crash as a momentary loss of balance quickly becomes a hurtling mass of limbs akimbo and uncontrollable momentum – and not going in the right direction. The rapid, and irreversible, descent of the bullpen down the side of the mountain started with a few hiccups as the season began that turned into some head-over-heel cartwheels as the relievers blew lead after lead, gaining steam and carnage as the season wore on. As the season began to circle the drain, the names became different, but the same terrifying results were “achieved” as the season careened out of control, before (hopefully) crashing into the orange net of the 0-8 AL Central road trip.

Who could have seen this coming, given the perceived depth and excellence that carried the 2007 bullpen? How did the thought that the relief corps would be a strength of the team as Opening Day dawned devolve to the point that it became a fair assessment to say that the 2008 bullpen may have essentially sabotaged the 2008 season?

Certainly, the feeling that Brodzoski (The Close) was due for a precipitous fall from (relative) grace was pretty widely held among the Friends of the Feather, but the players who spent 2007 setting him up figured to step up into his shoes to rescue the progression of the bullpen. It seemed that there were plenty of talented arms ready to step up to choose from. Among Senor Slo-Mo and The Scarecrow, and with the impressive showing by Jen Lewis down the stretch in 2007, the arms seemed to be there to make up for the surefire drop-off for JoeBo. The Indians, perhaps sensing that The Big Borowski would not last the season, augmented what looked like a strength of their team in the bullpen with their only FA signing of any merit by inking Japanese closer Masa Kobayashi to make up for any drop-off that might occur to one part of the bullpen or, at least, eat some innings until some of the main contributors could right the ship.

Surely, with all of those arms that had experienced enough success in 2007, the 2008 bullpen could at least come close to the success of the prior year…maybe not with the same exact arms in the same exact roles, but the pieces were there, right?

Unfortunately, we all know the answer to that question after 94 games.
The bullpen has fallen flat on its collective face, unable to close out games (with Borowski only tallying 4 of the 14 Blown Saves) or keep the Indians in close games to allow late-inning victories (the team is 18-48 when tied at some point from the 6th inning on) or provide any kind of support to a beleaguered starting rotation.

What happened here?
We all know about Brodzoski (The Close)’s fall from grace, so I’m not about to kick a man when he’s down (particularly considering that his lousy 2008 wasn’t exactly unexpected), so let’s focus on the players that were thought to be relievers that would step up to be the main cogs for this year’s bullpen, comparing their 2007 to their 2008:
Betancourt
2007 – 1.48 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 8.88 K/BB ratio, .183 BAA, .485 OPS Against
2008 – 6.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB ratio, .289 BAA, .835 OPS Against

Perez
2007 – 1.78 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 4.13 K/BB ratio, .187 BAA, .530 OPS Against
2008 – 3.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 2.69 K/BB ratio, .253 BAA, .683 OPS Against

Lewis
2007 – 2.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.40 K/BB ratio, .234 BAA, .611 OPS Against
2008 – 4.73 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 1.47 K/BB ratio, .281 BAA, .830 OPS Against

Those aren’t regressions – they are swan dives off the cliffs of Acapulco from the three most promising pitchers as 2007 closed out, the players who held the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings in check for opponents for the Indians last year. Every player the Indians counted on “taking that next step” in their development saw serious drop-offs in their efficacy (even Perez who, despite “succeeding” more than the other two, has posted two months with an ERA under 1.50 and two months with an ERA over 4.00), for whatever reason, which left the bullpen without anybody who could get batters out consistently…at least anybody we were seeing toe the rubber.

And that, to me, is where this thing should have been headed off at the pass before it got too out of hand for the team. The players who were main cogs in the Indians’ bullpen in 2007 showed awfully early that they weren’t going to replicate their success this year. Borowski and Lewis had no velocity and Betancourt had given up his 4th HR by May 4th after giving up 4 all of last year. But trotted out they were (if they weren’t “DL’d” or eventually demoted), in similar situation after similar situation, to fail miserably and to find themselves deeper and deeper in the abyss of ineptitude.

Perhaps no better alternatives existed, but the patterns went unchanged for months…and so did the results. Not to harp on Betancourt (though he is, essentially, the poster child for the stark difference between 2007 and 2008), as he has no control over when he pitches and in what situations, but of Betancourt’s 42 appearances, exactly 4 have come before the 7th inning. I’m all for letting a guy “work it out” on his own, but not to the detriment of the team, for goodness sakes. Certainly, quality arms (or at least arms that were effective in 2008) have been in short supply, but continuing to run an obviously struggling pitcher out there (insert your favorite 2008 Borowski moment here) is so counterproductive that it borders on insanity. Knowing that bullpen management and finding the right progression of relievers is one thing that a manager can control (though he can do little once they take the ball), the notion that Betancourt and Borowski continued to pitch the 8th and 9th innings into the month of July when neither pitcher’s ERA had been below 5.00 since April 25th shows a stubbornness and an inflexibility in bullpen management that certainly didn’t help the bullpen pull itself out of the doldrums. By the time the Indians gave some other arms (Elarton, Mastny, Mujica, etc.) chances at regular work in meaningful games, the season was already lost.

So now we’re left to cobble together the bullpen for the rest of the season trying to find out if Jen Lewis can recapture the magic of the last half of 2007, which Rafael Betancourt is the real one, and if any of these young arms (Mujica and, further down, Jeffrey Stevens and a potentially healthy Tony Sipp) can help out the 2009 bullpen that looks more devoid of a legitimate closing option (and an obvious one at that) than it has since the days of Steve Karsay.

And if any of those things come to pass, what guarantee is there that the success in the second half of 2008 of any reliever will result in success in 2009? Go ask Fernando Cabrera (the one with the post-All-Star break ERA of 1.35 in 2005, averaging nearly a K an inning only to follow it up with a pre-All-Star break ERA of 6.46 the very next year) how momentum of one season carries over to the next for a reliever.

The bullpen is, and always will be, a crapshoot from year to year where a player can go from dominant to dormant in the matter of a single season. While that is true, to watch the Indians’ relievers, almost as a group, go from the dizzying heights of 2007 to the lowly depths of 2008 has been nothing short of remarkable…and by “remarkable”, I mean worthy of a remark.
That remark, however, is not something I normally let pass through my lips.

Lazy Sunday - One Week Later

As the Bizarro Season continues (up is down, night is day, etc.), the last-place Indians taking the first three from the first-place Rays constitutes a surprising turn of events as Matt Ginter led the Erie Warriors past Tampa Bay last night. Just when you thought you knew something about this game…

Nevertheless, it is Sunday and we are a full week removed from the CC deal, so round up the kids, it’s time for a Lazy Sunday:

Right out of the gate, the PD Sports Page (non-Pluto division) continues the trend that began last weekend in regards to the CC trade with another “effort” this morning. Starting with being scooped at every angle by the Milwaukee media, to simply getting all of their information from Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel, to not even having an in-house writer do a piece on Matt LaPorta (a writer from the Huntsville paper was a “special contributor”), the PD’s coverage has been as disappointingly superficial as we’ve (unfortunately) come to expect, skimming along the surface of the deal, seemingly afraid to take a dive to any depths of examination for the trade.

As alluded to above, that broad brushstroke coverage continues today as Hoynes compares the Sabathia and Harden deal, though I can’t figure out what he’s saying, then goes off on how much better things were in the 90’s. If you’re looking for a link, by the way, you’re not going to find one as I would just feel more directly responsible for exposing you to it if I did link it. The link to the PD is on the sidebar, if you are so inclined, but the coverage provided here (bowing humbly), at LGT, and by Tony Lastoria has done laps around what the PD has provided, despite Pluto’s best efforts.

Speaking of Pluto, he has a thought-provoking piece on where Victor fits next year and how the Indians have a decision to make regarding 1B and C for 2009, which could ultimately be decided by the performances of Garko and Shoppach down the stretch. To me, Victor and LaPorta should fill 2 of the 3 positions between C, 1B, and LF (maybe not out of the gate…and no, I’m not suggesting Vic in LF, you know what I mean) to give the 2009 Tribe as much offense as possible.

I’d throw Shoppach, Garko, and the varied corner OF out there for the rest of the season is some sort of convoluted “position” battle for 2009:
If Shoppach keeps hitting at the pace he is, he becomes the de facto C, with Vic at 1B and LaPorta in LF.
If Garko can come close to his 2007 (finding his 2006 isn’t happening), Vic stays behind the dish and LaPorta goes to LF.
If Chootierrez AND The Ben Francisco Treat show enough to merit them taking up BOTH corners of the OF (and I think that The Frisco Kid has claimed one spot for 2009 with his play this year), Vic dons the tools of ignorance once again and LaPorta mans 1B.
The hope would be that ONE of these players would be able to separate themselves (that is, between Shoppach, Garko, and Chootierrez) as 2008 trudges on, because determining how to get the most pop in the everyday lineup remains tantamount to the Indians’ 2009 season, particularly considering the fact that you don’t know if Pronk is going to be returning to the team or if the “mild mannered DH” known as Travis Hafner figures to wear Pronk’s #48 for the foreseeable future.

Back to the LS, a very nice piece on the emotion of the CC deal and how the reality of the way that sports and particularly baseball operate comes via…wait for it…Shelden Ocker. It’s a very human piece that gets to the crux of what many of us were feeling, how running a sports franchise is a business that has to rise above the emotions of the fan, and a candid admission from Ocker on how he approaches news like this as a result of covering the team for such a long time. Say what you will about Ocker, but this piece (though it bears a striking similarity to Pluto’s first reaction…which, of course, is impossible to find on the PD website, so I gave up) rises above the din that came spewing from Livy, Hoynes, and the absurd world of Sports Radio (among others) in the past week as everyone took their shots at the Indians, resembling a pack of hyenas, ready to pounce on a wounded animal.

While it is easy to appeal to the basest of human emotions (frustration, anger, etc.) and lob arrows of “I-told-you-so” from a dismissive and arrogant perch, it’s much more difficult to explain a situation from an emotional standpoint without devolving into the “You should be mad at (fill in the blank) because (fill in the blank) failed you as fans” that plays to the lowest common denominator. The Ocker piece is a good effort to capture a feeling while not letting the feelings take control of the situation and water it down with cynicism and petulance. Knowing now that this writing exists somewhere in Ocker’s body I would hope that the article would represent the norm and not the exception that it is from the rest of the flippant members of the media.

Off the soapbox and back to the trade, I know that it’s been linked in the comments section, but for those that don’t peruse the comments, here’s Baseball America’s recap of the CC trade as well as a take on the deal from Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan, who felt that the Indians made the move too early and that the Indians should have waited for “desperate GM’s” to start their bidding war for Sabathia. My problem with this is that Rosenthal has reported that the Dodgers were only offering a package built around 3B Andy LaRoche (and even that alleged deal was nixed by McCourt) and many of the other teams rumored to be in the mix (namely the Cubs and Phillies) simply didn’t have a centerpiece to offer in a trade that is as highly-thought-of, or as close to MLB, as LaPorta was.
Does anyone prefer what the Cubs gave up for Rich Harden (realizing fully that Harden wasn't going to net what CC did), quantity over (what seems to be) quality?

Waiting for July 31st certainly would have made the next three weeks VERY interesting for us, but I seem to remember Nationals’ GM Jim Bowden holding out for “just the right deal” for Alfonso Soriano…right up to the point that Soriano was still wearing a Washington uniform on August 1st because Bowden didn’t think that he was getting fair value for Soriano.
What did Bowden end up with in return for Soriano ultimately?
Well…LHP Josh Smoker and RHP Jordan Zimmerman – the two players chosen with the compensation picks for the Nationals losing Soriano to the Cubs in Free Agency. Considering that Soriano left at the end of 2006, it couldn’t feel good to Nats’ fans that Zimmerman, while promising, has made 12 starts above A ball, while Smoker has pitched a total of 22 innings since joining the organization, none above Washington’s Low-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League as the Washington parent club scuffles along with no help from trading Soriano when the time was right.

Is there something to waiting out the best deal?
Sure (although the same logic that led Billy Beane to move Harden now, that is injury, is applicable in any case…even given the night-and-day injury histories of Sabathia and Harden), but it’s not ALWAYS the best thing to do, despite what ESPN (who has a rooted interest in “creating” stories) tells you. If the team gets the deal and the player they want on July 7th, why wouldn’t they take it if the Brewers were going to take LaPorta of the table on Monday morning? By the way LaPorta (or “The Door”…and no, I’m not sold on that one either) is picking up right where he left off in his dismantling of AA pitching.

Excuse me, if you will, I have to go watch “The Door” (not good if I have to sell MYSELF on it…maybe “The Doorman”?), Wes Hodges, and Hector Rondon in the Futures Game while watching to see if Jeremy Sowers and his 7.81 ERA can benefit from this upside-down, inside-out season and keep this train rolling into the Break.

Things Fall Apart

In watching another gut-wrenching, bile-in-my-mouth loss last night, to run the losing streak to 10 games, I couldn’t help but sit and wonder, “How did we get here?” How, on July 10th, are the Indians 16 games out of the lead in the AL Central, in last place after dropping 10 straight DIVISIONAL games when the beginning of the year was full of such promise? Who would have thought, way back in Winter Haven, that The Crooked Cap that a certain LHP would be pulling on for a start on July 8th of THIS YEAR was that of the Milwaukee Brewers and not the one he’s worn since he was a young pup in 2001?

What happened here?
The reasons come flying faster than a Miggy Cabrera blast to LF:
“The bullpen has crumbled onto itself, throwing the season away by blowing winnable game after winnable game, essentially sabotaging the season.”

“The ineffectiveness and subsequent injuries to Hafner and Martinez took the teeth out of an Indians’ lineup that is too reliant on RBI from both to absorb the loss in production.”

“Shapiro’s off-season of inactivity, with the Indians on the doorstep, doomed the team as he stood pat instead of supplementing the talent on hand to make a run in what was, very obviously, Sabathia’s last year in Cleveland.”

“The injuries to Carmona, Westbrook, and Atom Miller destroyed the starting pitching depth, forcing the players who started the season as the #8 starter (or worse…hello, Matt Ginter) when the season dawned, turning what was thought to be the strength of the team into just another problem spot by the All-Star Break.”

“The maddening inconsistencies (Peralta) and severe regressions (Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera) of players thought to develop into complementary players around The Big 3, at the very least, on the club forced inexperienced (Francisco and Choo) or role (Blake and Carroll) players into spots that they are ill-equipped to handle, weakening the lineup from top to bottom.”

Obviously, one answer does not come forth as THE reason that the Indians stand at 37-53 today as there are kernels of truth to each of the above explanations. Quite a bit has gone wrong in this nightmarish 2008 season and we, as fans, don’t look to be waking up anytime soon to find out that it was just a nightmare.

Over the next few days and weeks, I’ll try to examine in-depth all of these problems that have presented themselves at the Indians’ doorstep and how each one could possibly be fixed for the team going forward so 2008 doesn’t become the wrong kind of jumping point…the one that leads to an organizational freefall. In the interest of reminding us that our summers are now relatively freed up to enrich ourselves in things not related to the Tribe, I’ve borrowed the title of the series from Chinua Achebe’s “Things Fall Apart”, which was once (long ago) on my “Summer Reading List” and could end up there again soon…assuming I can make some headway on “A Confederacy of Dunces”. Regardless of what I’m reading in my ever-expanding spare time, I’ll do my best to break it down while trying to limit the number of times I throw up in my mouth in the process.

There’s plenty to break down (and I’m sure the pieces will be interrupted by further moves that are obviously forthcoming prior to, and after, the July 31st Trading Deadline), so it will take some time to hit all of it…but time is unfortunately all we have these days.

Trading Tomahawks

Let us all stare, open-mouthed, at the picture to the right of CC (note the lack of periods as per his absurd request) in a Brewers’ uni, collect ourselves because “The AppreCCiation” is forthcoming…and release some tomahawks:
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Much has been thrown out there regarding when Matt LaPorta figures to arrive in Cleveland and what his position will be. Though Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel said yesterday that LaPorta is “certainly ready for AAA”, the Indians will start him in Akron to give him some sort of comfort level there, then will proceed with him accordingly. Given LaPorta’s success, however, in AA and the fact that the Indians (whether they would come out and say this) want LaPorta to be a fixture in the Cleveland lineup by early 2009, at the latest, I can’t see how he doesn’t make a move up to Buffalo at some point this year with at least giving a thought to a September call-up, if waiting to give him a shot at breaking with the team out of Spring Training.

Ideally, the latest that I would like to see LaPorta in a Tribe uniform would be mid-May of 2009 or so, which would follow what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun last year, allowing him to get into a rhythm in AAA, and easing the transition to MLB without the added pressure of breaking camp with the team. But, again, I'd have to think that the mid-May call-up scenario would be about as late as the Indians would like to stretch this thing out, given the dearth of power at the big league level for the team.

As for his position, it looks as if the Indians will take a wait-and-see approach to evaluate for themselves how LaPorta looks in the field in Akron (or Buffalo) before making a decision. It does look as if LF and 1B would be the two likely destinations for him and the performance of the players in the organization already (Garko, Brown, and Aubrey at 1B; Chootierrez and The Ben Francisco Treat in OF) will play just as big of a role as to where he ends up. If Garko continues to regress and is unable to recapture any semblance of power or approach and Brown is unable to generate power at AAA, LaPorta could revert back to his college position of 1B, which most things that I’ve read report is his more “natural” position. If Garko or Brown push their way back into some future plans and Chootierrez continues to either flail away at the plate (Frank the Tank) or play inadequate defense (The BLC), LaPorta could be given the keys to LF, where his average arm is less of a liability, while RF becomes the land of Benny, Franky, and Shinny.

I’m not sure why, but visions of Ben Broussard running around the LF pastures in Jacobs Field have me hoping that LaPorta ends up at 1B, which is only one of the reasons that I'd prefer to see LaPorta end up at 1B, in addition to the fact that I'd like to see him upgrade the popgun options that currently exist in Cleveland and Buffalo. Certainly he’s going to fill one of the two holes that exist at both spots, but I'd rather see the Indians add a OF bat, independent of LaPorta, as opposed to sticking what could be a defensive liability in LF. Back to 1B, though, as a BIG fan of Jordan Brown, I can’t help but be disappointed by the continued lack of power from him as he climbs the ladder and, on a team that figures to need power going forward, these extra-base hit totals are hard to ignore:
LaPorta - 45 XBH in 296 AB in Huntsville at age 23
Brown - 49 XBH in 483 AB in Akron at age 23 (he has 25 XBH in 249 AB in Buffalo this year)
Garko - 56 XBH in 430 AB in Kinston, Akron, and Buffalo at age 23

Garko’s totals, by the way, after the 2004 season listed above are as follows:
2005 – 47 XBH in 452 AB in Buffalo at age 24
2006 – 52 XBH in 549 AB in Buffalo and Cleveland at age 25
2006 – 50 XBH in 484 AB in Cleveland at age 26
2007 – 15 XBH in 275 AB in Cleveland at age 27

If LaPorta does end up at 1B, where do Jordan Brown and Ryan Garko fit going forward?
Add that to the list of questions that need to be answered as 2008 draws to a close with eyes fixed firmly on 2009.
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Getting into the other two known quantities of the deal, LHP Zach Jackson looks to be little more than roster filler in the hopes that he could develop into a feasible middle relief option and more than just the warm body that he looks like to help the Indians get through the 2008 season without dipping too far into the minors to eat innings.

Though he is the player who has played at the highest level to date, if you were to rank the acquired players in order of significance to the deal, Jackson would round out the deal as the least important part, seen mainly as an arm that can perhaps play at some point this year in Cleveland, but without too much upside or hope that he will ever become a cog in the rotation or the bullpen.

Much more interesting in Single A pitcher Rob Bryson, whose future is murky as to where he projects, be it the rotation or the bullpen. Most reports focus on the 20-year-old Bryson’s 90+ MPH fastball and an effective slider that have translated into 73 K in 55 IP this year after netting him 70 K in 54 IP last year. If that is, in fact, the case, Bryson would likely project as a two-pitch reliever, though very far away from realistically contributing in Cleveland as he has pitched only as high as the South Atlantic League, which is the same league as the Lake County Captains. Though his K/9 rate ranks him in the top 3 of the Sally League, putting any kind of timeframe or projection on a 20-year-old pitcher who has yet to pitch in High-A ball is extremely premature.

Bryson will likely join the promising bullpen arms in Lake County like Josh Judy and Mike Pontius, and if those are names that you’ve never seen before as an Indians fan, they give you an idea as to where Bryson fits in terms of readiness and talent. He’s pretty far down the line and, regardless of how good his 2007 numbers look, the road from Classic Park to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario is a lot farther than the almost 18 miles that Mapquest tells you it is.
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By all accounts, more than the two pitchers, the PTBNL is the second most important piece of the deal after LaPorta and ahead of the two pitchers. Most reports have the Indians negotiating the option of choosing either AA OF Michael Brantley or Single-A 3B Taylor Green, and having until the end of the 2008 season to come to a decision.

Taylor Green is a name that has been connected to the trade talks since they hit the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel blog. Green was the 2007 Brewers’ Minor League Player of the Year who doesn’t project as a big bopper at 3B, as he has posted solid, if not spectacular, numbers at his three minor league stops leading up to his stay in Brevard County (same level as Kinston) this year as a 21-year-old. Interestingly, the Indians may be looking at Green as more of an option at 2B, as the options past Josh Barfield are essentially 3B Jared Goedert, who would also have to make the transition at some point (and is 2 years older than Green, with lesser numbers, at the same level), and other low-level players.

Green would fill an organizational weakness if he does project to a solid bat (10th highest OPS at .833 in the Florida State League among players with more than 50 games played in the league…just below prized Phillies’ 2B prospect Adrian Cardenas, whose name was connected to CC in trade talks, by the way) and may be waiting to see how he performs throughout the course of the year before making the decision whether to choose Green (who has been more widely reported to be the favored option) or Brantley.

As for the other perceived option, you may ask why the Indians would be interested in Michael Brantley, an OF with good on-base skills and speed when a player like Trevor Crowe seemingly already exists in the system. The reason is that Brantley JUST turned 21 in May of this year and has posted a .324 BA / .405 OBP / .412 SLG / .817 OPS with 15 2B, 4 HR, and 25 SB in a half season in Huntsville after getting exposed to AA briefly (59 games last year as a 20-year-old) while Crowe, who turns 25 this November has posted a comparable line (albeit with a higher SLG) this year at Akron with a .325 BA / .415 OBP / .506 SLG / .921 OPS with 14 2B, 4 HR, and 9 SB.

Same player, right?
Not even close, as Crowe is putting these numbers up in Akron after having spent part of 2006 there (with 154 AB) and all of last year there (with 518 AB) posting OPS of .643 in 2006 and .694 in 2007. While hampered continually by injuries, Crowe is closing in fast on his 25th birthday and, not having moved past AA and really finding his first success this year after amassing 672 AB there prior to this year, the clock is ticking on Crowe’s clock to even be considered a prospect anymore. Brantley, on the other hand, has experienced immediate success in AA and has continued to move up the organizational ladder quickly enough to position himself, at a young age, to make an impact above AA in the very near future.

This is not to knock Trevor Crowe or his standing in the organization, as he COULD still emerge as a viable ML player (though I have trouble seeing him being much more than a 4th OF, given his advanced age and the fact that his first success in AA came after spending a year and a half there), but more to illustrate how important age is at particular levels of the minor leagues and how it is helpful in evaluating where a player is in their development and how high their ceiling could be. Brantley, as one of the youngest hitters in the Southern League, posting a .405 OBP with 25 steals by the end of June, looks to have a pretty high ceiling, which is why the Indians figure to have him on their radar. If the Indians feel that the power that they get from Grady in CF allows them to fill LF with a speedy, leadoff-type hitter who may not produce the power generally associated with corner OF, Brantley would seem to fit that profile.

As for the decision between the two, the Indians have time to determine if Green has the ability to play 2B (while they have no control over where Green plays while in the Brewers’ system) as well as determining if Brantley’s bat projects as a leadoff hitter that their system seems to be lacking.
Time will tell…
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In case you were wondering where the Dodgers were on this whole CC situation as they looked to be the best match in terms of young, MLB-ready talent, it looks like the Dodgers’ owner may have nixed a deal that would have sent CC, Blake, and Carroll to Chavez Ravine for a healthy package of prospects including (perhaps, as the writer is simply conjecturing what the return would be) Matt Kemp.
Alas…
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With all of the glum faces these days regarding the parent club and the small solace that having Sizemore and Lee representing the Tribe in the Midsummer Classic has provided, the Indians now have three players in the Futures Game that takes place over All-Star weekend. The US team boasts Matt LaPorta and Akron 3B Wes Hodges, while the World team features Kinston SP Hector Rondon, who has notched 89 K to 25 BB in 81 2/3 IP while compiling a 6-3 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP…and he just turned 20 years old in February.
Anyone else setting their DVR’s for that one?
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In case you missed Anthony Castrovince’s piece on the CC trade, it puts a nice bow around how the whole thing happened as well as projecting why the Indians weren’t interested in AAA outfielders saying “they did wish to stay away from Triple-A outfielders, because of their belief in the bats of Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco, the glove of Franklin Gutierrez and the potential of Double-A prospect Trevor Crowe.”

I find it interesting that they remain as optimistic as they do on that foursome (if they really do) given the advanced age of all four and that none has emerged as much more than a complementary part this year, although the quote does address essentially the one strength of each player. I think that their focus on LaPorta had more to do with him being one of the best power hitters in minor league baseball (currently ranked #4 prospect in MiLB and the 20th best prospect under 25, regardless of level, by Prospect Project, whatever that is), and the fact that he projects as better than most AAA OF/1B out there had more to do with it than confidence in what is already in-house.

Much more to come on this as more thoughts, details, and news occurs.
For now, it’s back to baseball played on the field and to see if the Indians can stop this 8-game losing streak with CC Sabathia pitching tonight…for your Milwaukee Brewers.
Oof.

Meet Matt LaPorta

While the particulars of the Sabathia deal remain murky beyond Matt LaPorta (reports are that there are two more minor leaguers coming with LaPorta, but nothing firm has been reported), let’s just get into Matt LaPorta while we wait for more concrete details to evaluate the whole deal or handle the emotions of watching C.C. go and what the deal means in a larger sense.

LaPorta attended the University of Florida and was considered one of the top power hitters in the country entering his junior season. His junior season was marred, however, by an oblique injury that caused his draft stock to drop to the point of being a 14th round selection by the Red Sox. LaPorta decided to return for his senior year and proved to be impressive enough to become the 7th overall pick by the Brewers, netting a $2M signing bonus. The pick was seen as odd by most as LaPorta played 1B at Florida and was thought to be a very polished hitter who could move his way up through the Minor League ladder very quickly. The curiosity over the pick was not over LaPorta’s talent, but rather his position as he would be blocked by Prince Fielder in Milwaukee (remember a few weeks ago when I mentioned the Indians should look for a MLB-ready stud blocked by young MLB talent?), meaning that a position change was likely in the offing.

After dominating in his first season in the minor leagues (admittedly at very low levels for his advanced age), he entered the 2008 season in Huntsville, the Brewers’ AA affiliate. All he’s done in AA this year is hit 20 HR with 62 RBI while posting a .988 OPS against AA pitching. His 20 HR in 82 games, by the way, rank 10th in all of Minor League Baseball, and he is one of only two players in the top 10 for HR under the age of 25 who has played most of their season at AA or higher (Oakland’s Christopher Davis is the other)…so the power, particularly at his age, is very impressive. His bat is, without question, his greatest attribute as the position change that the Brewers instituted in an attempt to move him away from Fielder‘s position, moving LaPorta to the OF, has not gone very well as LaPorta is reported to be a sub-par OF with little hope that he would improve enough as an OF defensively to ever seriously have that be an option in the Majors.

Before going further with LaPorta, a factor needs to be brought up as most Indians’ fans see LaPorta in AA and immediately think that he is not close to contributing at the big league level. The factor that many don’t know, however, is that the Brewers have an organizational philosophy of keeping groups of players together as they progress through the minor leagues. It allowed players like Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and other players currently in Milwaukee to grow as a unit throughout their minor league career, playing on the same teams year after year, as opposed to having them bounce around the minors, fostering chemistry and comfort among a group of players. To wit, the Brewers’ Huntsville team boasts LaPorta, Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Angel Salome, and Michael Brantley, all of whom are legitimate MLB prospects…and that’s just the position players on what looks to be a historically good minor league team. Most, if not all, of those players have merited a promotion to AAA and LaPorta is arguably the player that would most deserve that promotion.

Now, all of that being said, LaPorta’s bat is much more advanced than AA and he will likely report to Buffalo initially with the idea that he will join the Indians at some point this season and possibly before the September call-ups. The downside of LaPorta, namely his defense, does not become as much of an issue in the Indians’ organization as LaPorta can go to Buffalo, then Cleveland, with the idea that he can revert back to 1B or simply DH for either team to concentrate on his greatest attribute, his bat. While the likes of Jordan Brown, Michael Aubrey, and even Ryan Garko are all decent players, none is in the class of LaPorta, who immediately becomes the best prospect in the Indians’ organization and is not as far away from contributing as the fact that he’s only played as high as AA this year would seem to portend.

While projecting minor leaguers into big leaguers is really a crapshoot (for every Evan Longoria, there are 25 guys like Andy LaRoche and Andy Marte…who, by the way, is the reason that skepticism exists on LaPorta or anyone else coming to Cleveland), LaPorta looks like the real deal offensively, with a polished bat capable of more power than anyone currently in the Tribe organization.

If you wanted a young power bat for Sabathia, you got him and LaPorta is probably as advanced as you’re going to find that would be available from a team in contention as the absurdity that the Brewers should have had been forced to part with players like Ryan Braun or Manny Parra for three months of C.C. (remember that Colon was under contract for all of 2003 when that deal was consummated), when 2008 is obviously the year they’re going for the brass ring (Ben Sheets figures to follow C.C. out of Wisconsin at the end of the year) shows little grasp on how baseball trades work and how rent-a-players work.

Much more to come on this as the other names in the deal get fleshed out and what the deal means in the grand scheme of things, but the Indians netted what they should have for Sabathia, a stud-in-waiting close enough to being ready to Cleveland that seeing him in 2008 and having him legitimately contribute in 2009 is not out of the question.

Done Deal

According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the deal is done. LaPorta is the centerpiece with two minor-leaguers not named Escobar or Gamel.

Much more on this as it comes and a whole lot of thought and analysis as details emerge, but this looks to be it.

A Lazy Sunday of Waiting...

Another Lazy Sunday, another episode of “As C.C. Turns” here as the Indians fall deeper and deeper into the abyss that their 2008 season has become.

While I’m not going to pretend that you come here for breaking news, I feel some sort of odd obligation to catch anyone up who’s not been hitting the “Refresh” button on their computer since Friday:
Most of the C.C. trade talk has come out via Ken Rosenthal, who spent his Independence Day reporting that the Brewers were throwing some highly-touted AA players (namely Matt LaPorta, shown to the right, and Alcides Escobar) in the mix for Sabathia then followed that up with a piece on what other teams could be in the fray, notably mentioning the Dodgers, and Tom Haudricourt from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, who says that the Indians are holding all of the cards right now and thinks that the Tribe will get back to Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin tonight or tomorrow. Incidentally, Haudricourt reported today that he expected an answer in time for C.C. to (potentially) make a start on Tuesday, so hold tight.

Interestingly, a number of names being bandied about in these C.C. talks made Baseball America’s 2008 mid-season All-Star team (with a nod to serial poster Halifax), with the Brewers’ Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, AND Matt LaPorta all having the best seasons at their respective positions in all of MiLB…at least according to BA.

You know, maybe we’ve been going about this the wrong way – maybe we should be looking to trade C.C. for Jack Zduriencik, the Brewers’ executive responsible for the Brewers’ surplus of riches in the minor leagues with a talent-laden team full of youngsters topside. As long as Milwaukee doesn’t ask us to throw in Antonetti, I’m putting my weight firmly behind this move.

On all of these trade talks, I’m not sure if Matt LaPorta (if, in fact, he is that big bat) is the type of player that would fill the team need of a player who would be playing for the Tribe in 2008 and legitimately contributing 2009 for the Indians (and not just transitioning to MLB), but he better be or else 2009 quickly starts to look like (depending upon what happens outside of a deal like this) a year of developing some of these players, with an eye on 2010.
That is something I’m not interested in because, as Buster Olney points out, things are not as dire for the Indians in 2009 as some would have you believe.

On the non-Brewers front and in what could be a fascinating turn of events, Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has said that he’s looking for an offensive SS and is willing to trade some of their prized prospects to acquire said offensive SS, as long as he’s not just a rent-a-player. In case you were wondering, Jhonny Peralta’s 12 HR rank tied for 2nd in MLB among SS, and his contract runs through 2010 with a 2011 club option for $7M.

Did you notice that Peralta started his stint of hitting in the #4 hole on Sunday, June 22nd in Dodger Stadium, Asdrubal Cabrera (when he’s not losing his cool on AAA umps) has played 21 of his 23 games in Buffalo as a SS, and one of the names connected to C.C. is a slick-fielding SS (Escobar) in the Brewers’ system?

Could the Indians deal Sabathia and get LaPorta or Gamel and Escobar AND get a player like James Loney or Matt Kemp for Jhonny Peralta (while the Tribe may be compelled to throw something else in) because Jhonny fills a need for the Dodgers today?

No local fishwraps make the cut (unsurprisingly) on the trade talk as they all seem to be getting their information from the likes of Rosenthal and Haudricout anyway, so I’ll just cut out the middle man. As an aside, is anyone else amazed in the least bit that the Indians’ beat reporters have nothing to add to the discussion or even put a Haudricourt-esque effort out there?

On the non-C.C. front, Terry Pluto (who has already turned the page on the season) touches on some of the questions that need to be answered as 2008 plays itself out, showing some love to Josh Barfield, Jordan Brown, Tribe minor league guru Tony Lastoria, whose site he plugs at the end of his column. Leave to the folks at cleveland.com to NOT hyperlink Tony’s site in the online edition.

Finally, Joe Posnanski shares some thoughts on the team of his boyhood and their current state of affairs, touching on the “Grady to the middle of the lineup” argument, among other topics.

Still quite a bit up in the air with this C.C. thing…can you feel it coming in the air tonight?

Tomahawks and Tears

Another day, another bullpen loss…and so it goes.

After watching the Indians waste a Herculean performance from SuperSizemore and perhaps seeing the Hefty Lefty don the Chief while receiving the ball from his infielders with his bare left hand for the last time, it is with a heavy heart and with a tear in the eye that the Tomahawks are released.
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In case you missed it (and serial poster Halifax, who e-mailed me about the situation after I wrote this, did not), the Dodgers look to have Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, Hideki Kuroda, and Brad Penny joining the parent club after some DL time in the very near future. While Rafael Furcal and Jason Schmidt look to be out for a while longer as Juan Pierre joins them on the shelf, it looks like the Dodgers are getting healthy.

So what does this have to do with the Indians, you ask?
Well, if the Dodgers’ veterans were to get healthy, does anyone doubt that Joe Torre is going to play “known” quantities over the youngsters currently populating his lineup card (Loney, LaRoche, DeWitt, Ethier, etc.) as the Dodgers attempt to close the gap between them and the scuffling D-Backs in the NL West? If some of those youngsters, then, are deemed to be expendable because of the veterans’ returns, wouldn’t that then free them up to be included in some sort of package to bolster the Boys in Blue? Or does the fact that Furcal is out for 8 weeks mean that the deal could be bigger than just 290 lbs, in that more personnel could be changing addresses?

That evolving situation in LA, along with the other “alleged” landing spots for C.C., is where some attention should be focused to best understand the landscape of the market that exists for Sabathia as much as finding matches for him, talent-wise.
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In the same vein, it will be interesting to see how the just-completed Rays-Red Sox series may affect how those teams prioritize their needs going forward. Will the knee-jerk reaction in Boston (by the fans and media, not necessarily the Front Office) to being swept in Tampa put the thought out there that Sabathia is that one missing piece to pass the Rays up and secure the AL East?

For as unappetizing as it sounds to think of C.C. joining Manny on the Dark Side to get a WS ring for the Red Sox, the Boston organization does boast the legitimate ready-for-MLB talent (currently blocked by other players on the parent club) that the Indians figure to look for in exchange for C.C. Names like Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Brandon Moss, Michael Bowden, and their ilk could become serious trade targets (sorry, Clay Buchholz isn’t leaving Beantown anytime soon) if the Indians determine that the best package of players is coming from Boston…despite what it will do to Indians fans’ collective hearts to see the aCCe fortify what would easily be one of the best rotations in recent memory.

By the same token, will the Rays’ sweep of the Red Sox embolden the Tampa brass that the time is now to take a run at a ring and part with some of their phenomenal young talent (and drafting at or near the top of the draft year after year will do that to an organization) that is blocked by the other phenomenal young talent already in Tampa? Obviously, the Rays (short of a decided organizational shift in thinking and payroll) wouldn’t figure into the C.C. Sweepstakes that will commence at year’s end, so would they be willing to give their team a shot in the arm this year, or are they content to allow their young players to continue to develop with the idea that consistent contention is preferable to what a four-month-rental of the reigning Cy Young Award winner would cost them in terms of prospects?

Make no mistake, C.C. could be the difference-maker in the AL East or NL Central or wherever he goes and the Indians need to play this fact up to whichever team they’re talking to as pitting divisional rivals against each other to drive up the price would be more than beneficial in terms of maximizing the return for Sabathia.
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While submitting her 25 votes for the All-Star Game (all Indians, all Brewers) last night prior to the 11:59 PM deadline, The DiaBride spotted the “GAME OVER” piece from yesterday and, after wondering aloud if the glass was still half-full around these parts and whether the naysayers had “gotten into my head”, she asked if the season was over if we didn’t have to watch all the games because they “didn’t matter anyway”.

In reality, she just wants to add “27 Dresses” to the Netflix queue and my excuse that Indians’ games take up most of our evenings is the main roadblock to that and other movies like it invading my home…but it raises an interesting question nonetheless - what are we watching these games for?

For me, other than my enjoyment of simply watching baseball and going to the structure at Carnegie and Ontario to do it in the flesh, it comes down to determining which of the current Indians fit into the 2009 plans and where. Many questions have revealed themselves in the first half of 2008 and the second half has turned into a type of extended Spring Training where these players will attempt to separate themselves and cement their position in the organization for 2009 and beyond.

At a certain point, we’ll get to see what some of these youngsters can do and figure out if help above and beyond what exists in the organization is needed (in addition to evaluating whatever the team is able to net for Blake – whose value grows by the day – and whomever else finds themselves not in Cleveland come August 1st) as they approach 2009 with hopes of better health.

Obviously, there’s plenty of time to dissect what has happened and what will happen and I plan on continuing to think about this team (probably a little too much) as the season winds down. Hope springs eternal in baseball as, every year, 29 teams come up short with the idea that next year is their year.
At this point, that’s all we have left.
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Finally, it looks like changes are coming for the Tribe…and soon, probably having to do with a man known to some as B(TC), so take the holiday weekend to enjoy yourself and digest them. Lazy Sunday probably a little later than usual as the wireless connection up in Lake Chautauqua is spotty at best and I’ll probably wait until I’m back in The 216 (since I’ve recently been enjoying an ale known by the Chicago Area Code of 312, I’m embracing the trend) to trip the light fantastic on my keyboard.

Happy Independence Day!

GAME OVER

If ever the Indians’ 2008 season needed to be presented in a nice, tidy package for the world to examine, look no further than the 2 hour, 44 minute gift that was bestowed upon Tribe fans last night in Chicago. In one game, in the middle of July, we were treated to a game that served as a microcosm for the season that put to rest any questions that could have remained in anyone’s head regarding where 2008 is headed.

Lest you forget (or have attempted to erase last night from your synapses) the Tribe starting pitcher was brilliant, going 8 strong innings giving up one run while the feeble offense, unable to put any rally together, had knotted the game at 1-1 with their favorite tool, the solo HR. After the offense was able to put another solo shot over the fence in the 10th, the bullpen laid waste to the game by allowing the opposition to tie the game with one swing (and with two out)..then win the game on consecutive hits.
Haven't I seen this show before?

And, as Brodzoski (The Close) strode off the mound to the Indians’ dugout, any thought of some magical run through the beginning of July and their AL Central opponents to force themselves back into the discussion had passed. Hope doesn’t live in the Indians’ dugout anymore, having been given the ultimatum by their manager that these 8 games were essentially their season, and they’ve dropped the first two to drop to 11 ½ back in the Central.

Guys…it’s over.
Let the retooling begin and let the auctioneer’s gavel that should be arriving to the Tribe offices this morning with a note on the package “ATTN: MARK SHAPIRO” serve as a not-so-subtle way to say that he better have his auctioneer’s voice tuned up for the next four weeks: CanIgetayoungsluggerreadytostepintothelineupforthisCyYoungAwardwinningpitcher…maybethrowinsomeyoungarmstofillouttherotationandthebullpen?
DoIseeaJamesLoneyormaybeanAndreEthierhowaboutaChadBillingsley?
ReidBrignacandJeffNeimann…replaceNeimannwithDavidPriceanditsadeal.
Backovertothemanontherightoftheroomwiththemustache…whatsthat?
MattKempandJonathonBroxton?
Sold!
Movingon…
CanIgetsomebitesonthemanwitha.406battingaveragewithrunnersinscoringpositionandwith47RBI? Hesasuperversatileplayerwhocanstepinforyourplayoffteamandbeyoursuperutilitymanforthestretchrun…whatarewelookingathere?
Won’tcostyoumuchmorethanadecentAAplayertogethimandaplayoff-testedveteran…

And so it goes – because the floor has been opened and the bidding has begun.

Lazy Sunday with a Familiar Topic

If you feel like Lazy Sunday has turned into a dumping ground for discussion on the “Whither C.C.?” party, you’re not alone. But, it being the most written and talked about topic, I would be remiss if I didn’t take it head-on, regardless of the fact that the Trading Deadline is about a month away and with the Indians heading to Chicago tomorrow to see if they can take care of some divisional business themselves.

First and foremost is the new report of what would likely constitute a final offer to C.C. from the team, which conspiracy theorists would have you believe is a way for the Indians to save face when C.C. turns it down. Without getting into how skeptical of everything in life you must be to truly think that, does anyone think that SUDDENLY he’s going to reconsider with obscene amount of money and security…more than the Tribe figures to offer…mere months away? C.C. will not be an Indians when the 2009 season starts and the reason is that he won’t take anything less than a guaranteed six or seven years, which history has taught us is a contract too long for starting pitchers.

Take this report (reported by the NY media, who will print anything) for what it is – the Indians are seriously considering moving C.C. and it would be irresponsible of them to do so before throwing their best offer on the table and seeing if the Big Fella bites.
If he accepts it (he won’t), the trade discussion is off the table.
If he rejects it (he will), the Indians continue with their due diligence before making a determination on what to do with him and, if they decide to trade him, what to ask for.

There’s nothing more sinister at play here, it’s simply a matter of the team asking, one last time, if C.C. is willing to accept the deal that the club is comfortable offering.
Think of it this way, what if C.C. gets traded and says after the trade, “you know all they had to do was sit back down with me and maybe we could have worked something out…because I wanted to stay” – everyone would rip the Tribe up and down for not making one last-ditch effort while they were the only team that held exclusive negotiating rights. That’s all this is…one last-ditch effort to sign him as part of the overarching organizational analysis of whether he stays or goes prior to August 1st.

Moving on, as we all know, the national reporters have taken the C.C. trade discussions to new levels as all of the principals are here with thoughts. Jon Heyman hits on it on SI.com (note that he doesn’t list the Byrdman in his Top 10 starters who could be available) while Jayson Stark addresses the C.C. topic while touching on a few more Indians who could be ordering new return address labels soon and Ken Rosenthal gets in on the action, addressing the possibility that C.C. AND Blake could be trade fodder.

On the same topic from the local angle, Erik Cassano lists his Indians who might be traded, in order of likelihood, which looks about right to me, given the heavy weighting at the top of players who don’t figure into long-term plans with the players whose future with the team has become murkier this season addressed down the list. Meanwhile, Paul Hoynes touches on the C.C. thing with a brief synopsis of where we are today, if lacking in any new information, and how the next three series (in Chicago, in Minnesota, and in Detroit) will basically make the decision on the season as the Indians have some opportunity to make up ground in the Central. If they don’t make serious gains in the GB column by the time the team welcomes the Rays to Cleveland, just before the All Star Break, the white flag may be waiting for them at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario when they arrive home.

Surprisingly, though, not everyone is fully convinced that the Indians should give up the ship (I mean other than on this site) as Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus feels that the Indians should be “buyers” instead of “sellers” in the winnable AL Central, despite their recent struggles. I think that some of Sheehan’s reasoning is flawed as the improvements that he portends for the likes of Garko, Peralta, and Betancourt look awfully hard to see with each passing day; but the argument is there, based mainly on the fact that the top of their rotation is as solid as any (with Fausto coming back around the All-Star Break) and the fact that the Central remains a crapshoot as weeks pass.

Back to the C.C. thing and climbing up on a soapbox, it still feels awfully early to start attaching names and teams to C.C. as much can change in divisional races prior to July 31st, much less in the Central. That is, the Brewers are just as likely to go on a run to pull themselves close with the Cubs or gain a commanding lead in the Wild Card race as they are to having the bottom drop out and find themselves in a similar situation to the Indians, looking to sell off pieces like Ben Sheets and Eric Gagne. The same goes for the Dodgers, the Rays, or any other team alleged to be in the mix.

The only argument that makes sense to me on trading C.C. now instead of waiting for a month is the idea that trading C.C. now means that his new team has one more month of C.C. to help their team which, in turn, drives up his price. If the Indians TRULY feel that there is no chance for them to climb back into the AL Central race and even a hot couple of weeks aren’t going to change their mind that C.C. WILL be traded, trading him now actually makes more sense than waiting it out. If the writing is on the wall (and I am not sure that it is, perhaps stubbornly, based on the rest of the AL Central and the fact that the Tribe’s starting pitching is pretty impressive), then one more month of C.C.’s starts would mean more to a team intent on contending, meaning that they would be more inclined to give up more to get him.

With all of that being said, let me reiterate the main point on trading the Hefty Lefty:
If the Indians make the determination that 2008 is a wash and turn their attention to 2009 (which is STILL not a foregone conclusion in my mind, given the state of the Central and the fact that Carmona is about 2-3 weeks away from returning), C.C. is the biggest chip that the Indians have to play in this trade market and the return that they should hold out for in exchange for him should be MLB-ready players, not “high-ceiling” AA guys or players that COULD contribute in 2009.

If, say, the Indians DO trade C.C. on July 31st, I want our lineup for the parent club on August 1st or August 2nd to contain a player (or players) that were obtained for the Crooked Cap. If they trade him before that…fine, as long as the players that come to Cleveland are sitting in or near the middle of the lineup for the Indians as soon as they join the team. I’m not interested in the principal player in the acquisition needing more “seasoning” in AAA or a player who has mashed all of this year…at AA or high A.

If we’re trading C.C., I want someone who can contribute at the big league level TODAY! The reasoning being that this is not 2002, when the team was a collection of overpaid, aging players that can’t be counted on going forward (as much as the people that can’t stand Lacey Cake and The Looch and what they “represent”, only Jamey Carroll joins them as “regulars” over 31) and need to be jettisoned for sorely-needed young talent. Consider that the 2002 team had three players UNDER 30 in Milton Bradley (24), Russell the Muscle (26), and Einar Diaz (29), so the roster and the whole organization was in need of an injection of youth, even if it took a while for the acquisitions to mature into MLB players.
Time was not of the essence in 2002, development with an eye toward the future was.

Not so in 2008, where pieces ARE in place as the Indians still boast a 24-year old ace who flummoxes hitters and makes them feel “hungover” with his nastiness, a groundball-inducing 23-year old LHP with an ERA of 2.83 in his 1st ML season, a 29-year-old LHP who will probably start the AL All-Star game by totaling 11 wins in ½ of the season on a team with only 37 wins, a 25-year-old perennial All-Star and Gold Glove winning CF, a slick-fielding 22-year-old Middle IF who has taken any frustration for his recent demotion out on International League pitchers, and a catcher and a DH under the age of 31 whose three year averages from 2005 to 2007 give them OPS of .971 (Hafner) and .863 (Victor), meaning that track record for the past few years dictates that 2008 is likely the aberration and (hopefully) not the trend.

Are there holes to fill?
No question, but the team is not as hopeless or without talent as the people who sense an impending 15-year stretch of bad baseball (and, trust me, they’re out there) and see a team that needs to be rebuilt…again. Talent (and young, elite, MLB talent at that) does exist on this roster, it simply needs to be augmented properly, from within and from the outside, to get back to the level of winning that 2007 seemed to promise.

In short, I’m not looking for a REBUILD if (note the “if”, not a “when”) the Indians figure to sell off pieces and parts that don’t fit in their long-term plans. Rather, I’m looking for a RELOAD that surrounds a rotation built around Carmona, Lee, and Laffey for next year and a lineup built around Grady, with the hopes that Victor and Hafner can get healthy and productive, with progressions from the likes of Francisco and Asbrubal, and with Garko and Peralta (assuming they’re both still around, which is no given) taking the next step as players who don’t simply mire in the mediocrity that has been their 2008.

Rebuilding is not a word that should be in the Indians’ vocabulary, given the amount of talent under club control for the foreseeable future…retooling or reloading would fit the bill better to me and that approach should be the one that the Front Office takes as they make the determination on cashing in some of their chips.

OK, down from the soapbox.
Does anyone else think that the retro jerseys that the Tribe wore against the Padres a few weeks back should be made available? This picture is the hat and jersey I’ve been scouring the online stores for and have yet to find it…then the Indians tease me by wearing the jersey that I grew up loving?


Time to see if the Tribe can get some momentum for the all-important road trip coming up here by winning a series against a Reds team that looks to have packed it in a few weeks ago.

Paradise Lost

Once upon a time, in what feels like a galaxy far, far away, the Indians sat atop the AL Central with a 1 ½ game lead after sweeping the A’s in the friendly confines. The date was May 15th, a mere 6 weeks ago, and some hack decided to look at the upcoming schedule of the Indians, decided that it was relatively easy with the opponents on queue, and made the determination that the 53 games separating mid-May from the All Star Break would be the time that the Indians ran away with the Central by beating up on lesser opponents.

Um…are we playing with mulligans?
While that Indians are still in the midst of that 53 game stretch, the early returns (though the first 37 games) shows that the INDIANS were the lesser competition on the schedule as the Tribe has posted a 13-24 record (a .351 winning percentage) as they have sunk to the bottom of the AL Central, looking up at the (gulp) KC Royals.

So what in the wide, wide world of sports happened here?
The team, as it stood on May 15th, was still with an effective Fausto Carmona and at least contained Hafner and Martinez (however impotent their bats were) in the middle of the lineup as their aCCe showed signs of returning to his Cy Cy form and Cliff Lee and Aaron Laffey were in the process of vying for the AL ERA lead.

Now, six weeks later, the team puts a lineup against the worst (and most overpaid) pitcher in MLB by “featuring” a player (by his own admission) whose best role is that of a utility player in the #2 hole, a player that started the season in AAA in the #3 hole, a #4 hitter with a .719 OPS whose Lasik may or may not have taken, a #5 hitter with a .693 OPS on the season who runs like he has a refrigerator on his back, and a 33-year-old SS who didn’t play in MLB from 2004 to 2007 when he was signed (then cut) by the Rays.
Is it any surprise that Barry Zito shut down the Tribe offense on Wednesday night?

Instead of just focusing on one frustrating game, though, let’s focus on a whole mess of them, starting with the series opener in Cincinnati on May 17th after the Tribe swept the Athletics out of town. Here is how the Indians have performed against the “weak” part of their schedule with the records of the teams at the start of the series indicated:
@ CIN (18-23): 0-3
@ CHI (23-20): 0-3
vs. TEX (24-25): 1-2
vs. CHI (27-22): 1-2
@ KC (21-32): 1-2
@ TEX (29-29): 2-2
@ DET (24-35): 2-2
vs. MIN (31-33): 2-1
vs. SDP (30-38): 2-1
@ COL (28-41): 0-3
@ LAD (34-38): 2-1
vs. SFG (32-44): 0-2*
*sorry, since “There Will Be Blood” arrived via NetFlix today, that’s what I’m watching tonight

Against ONE team (though they faced the White Sox twice) that had a record above .500 when the series started among ten opponents, the Indians have played .351 baseball as they’ve seen their record drop from 22-19 to 35-43 over a course of time that has seen the rest of the AL Central do precisely what the Indians SHOULD have been doing. In fact, here’s how the AL Central has fared since that magical May 15th date, which looks, unfortunately, to be the high-water mark of the season for the Tribe:
CHI: 22-15
MIN: 22-16
DET: 21-15
KC: 17-22
CLE: 13-24
OK, OK…stop banging your head against the desk.
Let’s try to figure out what’s going on here without getting too deeply into individual performances, as that discussion is for another day and another couple thousand words.

Surprisingly, the offense has not been the primary culprit, as anemic as it has looked as they’ve averaged 4.6 runs per game. Not an overwhelming number, but certainly an improvement over the first few months of the season when the Indians were actually winning games due to their pitching. The offense has posted a .739 OPS over those 37 games, which doesn’t remind anyone of the glory days of Jacobs Field, but falls in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive production in the AL. The offense has been fair, if inconsistent, over this stretch that has caused the season to circle the drain with the only stat jumping off the page is the disproportionate amount of K (averaging nearly 7 ½ per game) to the amount of BB (a little over 3 a game).

So, it’s not the offense’s fault on its own…then it must be the bullpen, right?
Over the 37-game stretch, the Indians bullpen has collectively posted 5.48 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP while compiling a 3-14 record with only 4 saves in the 13 wins that the team has won since May 15th. Scary numbers, for sure…so that must be the reason, right? Fix the bullpen and the mediocre offense combines with the strength of the team, the starting pitching, to allow this team to go on a run.

Ah, the starting pitching…
Not using injuries as any sort of excuse as the Indians’ depth at starting pitcher was thought to be (and probably is) the strength of this organization. However, over this 37-game stretch that is under the bright lights of examination, the starters don’t come out much better than the relievers as they’ve posted a 4.90 ERA as a group while allowing 1.49 walks and hits per inning pitched. A far cry from the month of April, when 3 of their 5 starters had ERA under 3.00 (and C.C. and Laffey, the two most consistent starters currently, weren’t among those three), is it not?

And herein lies the rub – its not ONE thing that has caused this team to go belly-up, so it’s not as if ONE thing is going to magically fix what has gone awfully wrong. Would a settled and efficient bullpen help? Sure, but the starters have been as much of a problem as the bullpen over the last six weeks, just as the inconsistency of the offense has been a culprit for the team dropping to the cellar in the AL Central.

One would like to think that this team could tread water until they get healthy, but the fact remains that they haven’t and the stretch of games they’re coming off of gave them what was likely the best opportunity to stick around the .500 and stay in the AL Central mix. If they had even been able to do that and go 18-19 in this 37-game stretch, they’d be sitting at 40-38, a mere three games back in the Central.

I don’t mean to showcase these hard numbers just to ruin everyone’s weekend, I just want to provide some empirical evidence that this team is not one improvement of one aspect of the team from getting back into this race. If adding a big bat would solve all the problems of the team or augmenting the bullpen would settle the whole team, then optimism would still exist. But this team, as it stands right now, is simply not good enough to put together a stretch of wins due to the inconsistency of all aspects of the team and the opportunity that was ahead of them six weeks ago lies behind them with regret being the prevailing feeling that remains.

Ultimately, against the worst of MLB, the Indians have been at their worst, allowing the 2008 season to become a casualty on a road that once looked so full of hope that is now going nowhere.

A Double Standard?

In the midst of the Omar Love Fest that’s taken over the North Coast, something keeps bothering me. I have no problem with the outpouring of gratitude and appreciation for Vizquel from Indians’ fans and from the organization (though, at a certain point, cheering his RBI squeeze that proved to be the game winner was a bit over the top because…you know…he’s not playing for the Indians anymore), but I’m a little confused as to what seems to be a double standard that Omar has been the beneficiary of as he returns to the North Coast for the first time.

Follow me on this, if you will:
A player who was a main cog in the 1990’s Tribe juggernauts becomes a Free Agent as the team rebuilds in the early-to-mid 2000’s as the team rebuilds.
The player voices his desire to stay in Cleveland, but leaves for greener pastures.

The player returns for the first time to Cleveland to face off against his old team. How is he received by the fans that adored him for so many years?
If you said, “It depends on the perception of WHY the player left”, you’re exactly right.

If you’re seen as a player who was wronged by the organization, passed over despite the fact that a few good years are left in you for a hotshot youngster ready to take your place, you’re embraced and cheered upon your return.

If you’re seen as a player after nothing more than money, who wronged the organization by leaving after saying that you wanted to end your career as an Indian, then signed for more guaranteed money and years than the Indians were willing to offer, you’re vilified and booed upon your return.

Maybe I’m simplifying things a little too much, but how were the departures of Omar Vizquel and Jim Thome a year apart THAT different?

Both left the rebuilding Indians after both stating that they wanted to retire as Indians, but returned to entirely different reactions as opponents of the Indians. Omar has been given a hero’s welcome, a reminder of how marvelous that magical era of Jacobs Field was while fans condemn the Indians for shooing away Little O (despite the fact that Jhonny Peralta had just been named the International League MVP at age 22 and was ready for Cleveland) to San Francisco, while Thome came back to the mocking catcalls that his wife was “his rock” and he that he had somehow turned his back on the entire fanbase by accepting the Phillies’ offer of more guaranteed years than the Indians were willing to offer.

Why is this?
Is it really HOW these players leave town instead of what they do while in town?

You won’t be able to convince me that Omar was more popular than Thome while both were here as talk of a statue of Thome was actually part of the Tribe’s negotiations with him and I don’t recall anyone ever mentioning a spot next to Rapid Robert for Vizquel. Both players were THE icons of those teams of the mid-to-late 90’s, despite the fact that better players played on the same team as fans marveled at the skill of Belle and Ramirez, but never adopted the surly Albert or the mercurial Manny the way that Omarvelous and The Thomenator had a hold on our collective hearts.

I won’t even delve deeply into how deeply Omar’s hitting has fallen off since he left the Indians because I don’t care to disparage his overall body of work by examining his struggles at the plate as he winds down his career (as most players do) or get into the whole debate of Omar staying to play SS because the “Hindsight Is 20/20” axiom is too overwhelming for any rational discourse when you travel back in time to the winter of 2004 and the mitigating factors when the decision was made.

Don’t get me wrong, Omar deserves the praise and adulation that has been heaped upon him as he comes back to Cleveland, but be aware of the similarity of the way he left town to the way that Thome left town. Both players wanted to stay (depending upon what you believe), but ultimately left for NL destinations. Their returns, however, could not have been more different, mainly based on the perception about their exit from town and who was perceived as greasing their way out of town. In Omar’s case, the organization is seen as the bad guy, letting a local treasure escape because of what was expected to be a regression as he aged over the next few years with a ready-made replacement waiting in the wings to be a part of the rebuilding while Thome is seen as the villain in his case, seen as grabbing every last dollar from the Phillies on his way out of town, reneging on his promise for a “hometown discount” and his stated desire to stay in Cleveland.

Maybe the state of the Indians at the time of both players’ return shed some light on the situation as Thome arrived as a member of an AL Central rival with the Indians’ star on the rise, with Travis Hafner mashing his way through the AL, and with Thome’s balky back (which was the reason the Indians wouldn’t match the Phillies’ contract offer) relegating him to DH for the White Sox. Thome’s comments that he left for Philadelphia for a “chance to win” were thrown back in his face as the Indians looked poised for a prolonged run of success, with his replacement (the artist formerly known as Pronk) besting Thome’s output. Fans had the idea that the Indians were better off without Thome, given the success of Hafner and the team’s “bright” future.

Meanwhile, Omar returns with the Indians’ current season (one once so full of hope) teetering on the brink, with his replacement looking heavy-footed in the field and underperforming at the plate, and with fans looking for a reason to blame the current regime for the 2008 season – this time inexplicably bringing up the irrational notion that keeping Vizquel in Cleveland for the last 4 years would have improved the current team, despite Vizquel’s contributions at the plate (or lack thereof) since he left Cleveland.

Perhaps the way the two players handled the situation provides the explanation as Thome made comment after comment that he wanted to stay in Cleveland, giving fans hope that FINALLY the player to give that “hometown discount” had arrived and Jimmy would finish his career donning the Chief while Omar simply and quietly went off to San Francisco as the writing was on the wall that the Indians had planned for his departure with Peralta and some kid who called himself “The Franchise” ready to step into the middle infield upon his departure.

What if Thome had simply toed the Players’ Union party line and said that he would see how it all played out? What if Omar had been offered a contract to stay in Cleveland, with the idea that Peralta would move to 3B and Vizquel could stay at SS until he retired?

To further the question, why are players like Vizquel, Lofton, Nagy, and Sandy remembered in such reverential tones when recalling the 90’s? Is it because the perception that these players were forced to leave on the organization’s terms, which is in stark contrast to Thome, Manny, and Belle, who left of their own volition and signed larger contracts elsewhere?

Were those players that have been received warmly (to say the least) greater contributors than those that have had their names besmirched for the manner in which they left town? I’d like to see an argument that says that the former list of players was more instrumental in the success of the 90’s than the latter three names.

I suppose the lesson is for a player to leave in good standing with the fans, regardless of past contributions, as the last action before your foot steps out the door is the action for which you will be remembered.

Back to Omar and Thome, we’ll never know how the two may be thought of in Cleveland had things sorted out in a different manner. But “different” is an understatement as to how these two former teammates and former torchbearers for the Indians organization are received when they return to Cleveland to face off with their former team in front of Indians fans.

Fair or not, Omar has come out as squeaky clean as memories of his dazzling us playfully while playing a child’s game remain as the black that Thome wears when he visits the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as a member of the White Sox is more than symbolic as the role of the greedy player, ready to turn his back on a city for every last zero on a paycheck, has settled on his vast shoulders that once carried a city.

I Left My Water Weight In Los Angeles

As the DiaBride, myself, my brother, and his fiancé headed out to La La Land, it just so happened that the Tribe made their trip out to Dodger Stadium in an attempt to stop the bloodletting that they experienced in Coors Field and take advantage of the White Sox squaring off against the Cubbies in the Windy One. The trip began innocently enough, ambling around Long Beach, catching the Tribe-Dodgers game on TV (with Himself, Vin Scully, broadcasting as only he can) on Friday night, followed by a trip south to Huntington Beach and Laguna Beach on Saturday.

Despite the fact that all of the national news stations were covering the blistering heat in SoCal, the weather we experienced was marvelous as we stayed close to the Pacific Breeze and soaked in the rays while benefiting from the proximity of our locales to the ocean. With the weather so perfect, we obviously bellied up to a bar in Laguna Beach (which was open air and had sand in the front portion…so we weren’t TOTALLY indoors while the Pacific was 50 yards away on a sunny Saturday afternoon) and reveled in the majesty of C.C.’s power stroke and power pitching.

After spending the afternoon watching the 7-2 win at the bar, we ventured out into the ocean, then returned home where the “festivities” that had commenced at Hennessey’s in Laguna Beach continued well into the night, including a trip to a liquor store in North Long Beach (walking distance from the hotel) where my brother and I were greeted by a (how shall I say this) “lady of the night” at the front door, kept our heads down, and bought some drinks to accompany our card game at the hotel.

When the alarms went off on Sunday, we were worse for the wear, but all excitedly donned our Tribe gear and headed up towards Dodger Stadium as we would no longer be simply watching our Erie Warriors on Fox Sports, we would be representing in Chavez Ravine to see if the Tribe could sweep their way out of town and continue to gain ground on the scuffling White Sox.

Arriving to Elysian Park, we were blown away that this stadium was just sitting in a big ravine in the middle of LA. I mean, I know that everyone refers to it as “Chavez Ravine”, but this was ridiculous as all sides of the stadium were essentially surrounded by hills…something we would later learn is not ideal in the conditions we were about to enter, given the way that hills block wind. We made our way to the stadium, walking about a mile (the park is in the middle of an ocean of parking lots) and went to find our way in.

Now, nobody clued us into a unique feature of Dodger Stadium, which is that you have to enter the level at which you have tickets. Our thought was that we would go into the closest entrance and, having arrived early, we could explore the park and make our way to our seats when game time approached. Such is not an option at Dodger Stadium as we were turned away from our first option, then told the wrong direction to head by the ticket-taker who turned us away. After being turned away a second time, we finally headed to our proper gate going up and down stairs about 5 time because…the ballpark is built into a hill and there’s no easy way to get anywhere.

Nevertheless, we finally found our entrance and moved over to our seats, which happened to be on the 1st base side…under the glare of the sun that may have been the same one that melted Icarus’ wings. To read that the temperature at first pitch was 94 degrees does not do justice as to what we experienced sitting in the still, hot air with the sun baking our skin and turning the ice cubes that we were dropping down our shirts into hot water by the time they made their way to our waistline.

It was hot…damn hot….and the fact that the first four Dodgers who faced Paul Byrd scored did not make the beginning of the day any more enjoyable. We suffered through the first few innings trying to cool ourselves and focus on the game while admiring the sightlines in the stadium (which were magnificent as long as you could wipe the sweat off of your brow quick enough to keep your eyes open), but the sun continued to bear down on us and we made our way over to a shady section of the stadium, which is about 2,000 of the 56,000 seats there.

We found some refuge in the shaded sections, but now we had to deal with the Dodger fans that were…um…not happy to see people in opposing teams’ gear. Before I go further, let me say that I’ve been to a number of ballparks to watch the Indians as the visiting team and usually run into a knucklehead or two who rides you a little bit, but eventually loses interest or is easily put in his place by a witty remark or an innocent, “hey, thanks for the warm welcome”.

Most fans in the cities I've visited are more than cordial and show an interest in the fact that you came to visit and ask various pleasant questions. Not so with Dodger fans, who went after us to “go back to Cleveland” (and worse) or just followed us around the concourse to a chorus of boos. After using my better judgment NOT to come back with a quick rejoinder as I don’t think the Latin Kings were going to get my reference to Dante’s Seven Layers of Hell, we finally settled into the only place that had a semblance of a breeze and put up with the guy standing behind us who booed (quietly and loudly…but constantly) until we parted.

The Tribe had lost 4-3, but all we could think about was getting to the LAX Hilton pool in an attempt to return our core body temperatures to what we thought would be “safer” levels. After a little more harassment in the parking lot, we finally made our way out of what felt like Death Valley and headed to our hotel with the pool, some AC, and a tall, cool drink on our minds.

All told, it was very cool to see Dodger Stadium, to admire the architecture of the ball park itself, and to see the Indians play there (with the obvious head nod to other Tribe fans in attendance from time to time) against the Boys in Blue. The heat, however, was the overriding factor in the day being more of something that you had to ENDURE rather than something to ENJOY. The fact that the Indians weren’t able to complete the sweep was ancillary at a certain point as heat exhaustion was more of a concern than whether Peralta should have tried to score on Ethier in the 5th.

For now, I’ll continue to rehydrate myself in anticipation of the Indians hopefully beating up on Little O and the Giants, then the Reds while the White Sox head out to Chavez Ravine before facing the Cubbies again. It could turn out to be a VERY interesting week that tells us a good deal about where 2008 is headed as the Indians face off against the White Sox one week from today.

Big thanks go out to T-Bone for captaining the ship in my absence yesterday (or this morning) as I attempted to cool off and…it’s nice to be home.