Minor Matters

Rather than dwelling on the aberration that was last night's loss to the Rays, (the team flight did get in at 3:30 AM and anyone who has ever flown knows that means that they actually probably got home closer to 5:00 AM), I thought that we could take a look at what's happening on the farm and how the September call-ups may be affected by recent movement on the farm.
Pitching
The pitching staff at Buffalo has been loaded with some of the best young arms in the organization. And, I do mean young. Their starting rotation, with ages listed, is as follows:
Jason Davis - 25
Fausto Carmona - 21
Dan Denham -22
Brian Tallet - 27
Jeremy Guthrie - 26
The old men in this rotation, Tallett and Guthrie, probably figure into the bullpen in the future or will be packaged in the off-season to acquire more depth at positions of need. Billy Traber, who is the long reliever in Buffalo (you read that correctly), would fit into that category as well. It will be interesting to see if the Tribe tries to turn Tallet or Traber into a left-handed specialist in the event that Scott Sauerbeck moves on for 2006.

For September, I would expect Davis, Carmona, Tallet, Guthrie and more bullpen arms (Francisco Cruceta, Andrew Brown, Jose Diaz) to be brought up to give some depth and also to audition for (presumably) 2 spots that will open in the bullpen for next year. All of these players are currently on the 40 man roster. Those arms would probably be replaced by the studs in Akron (Jeremy Sowers, Jake Dittler, Mariano Gomez, Bear Bay, Edward Mujica) for Buffalo to make a run at the International League title.

Looking at the pitching in this organization (and even realizing that injuries are inevitable and not everyone will pan out), the depth and quality of arms is alarming. Every minor league affiliate's pitching staff is talented, with a nice mix of arms.

Offense
The recent call-up of Franklin Gutierrez to replace the DL-bound Ryan Ludwick gives the Bisons an outfield of Gutierrez, Jason Dubois, and Jason Cooper. The only missing major prospect in that mix is Brad Snyder, who remains in Akron.
The Bisons lineup looks like a who's who of upper-tier hitting prospects, with the exception of 2B Joe Inglett (who is a nice little player) and DH Andy Abad. Every other player - 1B Garko, SS B-Phil, 3B Gatreau, and C Cardona (to a degree), and the outfielders listed above - represents a viable option for a September call-up and for a push in Spring Training in 2006.

For September call-ups, don't be surprised if Garko, Phillips, Gatreau, and Dubois are the only prospects getting called up. There remains a possibility of calling another catcher up to rest Victor, but do we really want to rest Victor for Dusty Wathan in the middle of a pennant race?
A catcher will probably get called up, if only for insurance purposes, as well as a few veterans - probably Ernie Young, Andy Abad, and Jose Morban (if only to give the Tribe 40 warm bodies). Those players, again, would probably be replaced by deserving Akron prospects (Ryan Mulhern, Eider Torres, Pat Osborn, and Brad Snyder), to keep Buffalo in the mix for another IL title.

In addition, the way that Buffalo and Akron are lining up for next year look like the Indians should be able to add impact rookies into holes for the next few years. This would avoid the mess of Free Agency as well as allowing the Tribe to lock up their own young in-house talent (Sizemore, Peralta, Lee, etc.) not already signed to long term deals, by not overspending on an aging FA who may or may not pan out. Compare today's situation to the dearth of minor league talent at the end of the 90's, and the scouting department and Front Office (as well as the Dolans for pouring money into the farm system) have to be commended.

Let's hope thatlast night's hiccup against the Rays is rectified tonight and tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I won't be watching tonight, as I'll be witnessing the (miraculous) nuptials of loyal poster Cy Slapnicka in Akron. Interestingly, Cy's namesake was mentioned in a recent Sports Illustrated article as the REAL Cy Slapnicka was the Indians scout who signed the greatest Indian of the all, Rapid Robert Feller.

Congrats Cy and good luck finding Tribe broadcasts in the Mexican Riviera (I couldn't find a Browns' game for the life of me there in 2002). Then again, if you're looking for Tribe broadcasts every night on your honeymoon, we need to have a talk.

Goodbye, Joseph Diego

The trade of Jody for Jason Dubois is probably not the kind of splash that Shapiro was hoping to make in his pursuit of a RH upgrade. I doubt that the walk-up ticket lines tonight exploded to see Jason "Let's Hear it For" Dubois (a dime to TB) bat 8th and DH.
But could this move be the first of a few to get this team ready for the home stretch?

Dubois looks like a solid RH minor leaguer who hasn't had much of a chance in Wrigley, blocked in years past by Sosa and Alou, and by his own defensive shortcomings this year. Whether he is this year's Ryan Ludwick/Josh Phelps or can become another Tribe "find" (in the vein of Broussard, or dare I say, Hafner) remains to be seen. We'll have to see how the next few weeks play out before passing judgment on Dubois.

Jody wasn't fitting into the Indians future, with Grady and Coco entrenched in the outfield, and Wedge forcing Blake into the lineup. Add into the equation the strength of the Indians' farm system (offensively) is in the outfield and at 3B, and Jody becomes expendable (and probably marketable as a 4th outfielder). Better to get something for him now before his already long swing gets longer and he is further exposed as a career singles hitter who burst on the scene in 2003 after a new summer "training regimen".

The question now is whether Dubois will be banished to the bench (as Phelps was) in favor of Blake, Boone, and Broussard or if Wedge will give him some AB's. The guess here is that he gets some AB's quick, but at whose expense? The most likely candidates are Blake, Broussard, and Boone; as Dubois is a RF, 1B, and DH (with Pronk pretty entrenched at DH). Blake may be used as more of a 4th outfielder and reserve 3B/1B, with Hernandez becoming trade bait (along with Howry, Broussard, and Blake).

As I said earlier, I think that this is a first small step to re-creating this lineup to compete for the Wild Card. Shapiro sees what he has and realizes the strengths and the deficiencies.

The positions that have been lacking in production all season are 1B, 3B, C, RF, and to some degree LF. Dubois MIGHT be able to fill one of those holes. But with the asking price so high on the established hitters on the market, Dubois presents a nice alternative without disrupting the team too much.

Now, though, I have to convince the bride (whose 2 favorite players are Gerut and Blake) to embrace Dubois for putting on the Tribe uni. It did not go over well that he chose Jody's #9. It was likened to taking the clothes off of a corpse at a funeral.

New links on the right bar to check out at your leisure.

At 2-0 in the 6th, let's get some offense for Millwood tonight. He's earned it.

Little by Little

Tough loss today for the Crooked Cap and the Tribe as they ran into a buzzsaw in Roy Halladay. Though it would be nice to rip off 10-12 in a row and get right into the thick of things in the Central, let's be a little more realistic. A VERY good sign is that the Indians have won 3 of their last 4 series, most against playoff caliber teams (MIN, LAA) while the team seems to be hitting its stride.

Interesting that the players getting hot and carrying this team recently are Coco, Sizemore, Jhonny, and Broussard. With the exception of Broussard (who has 2 years 33 days in the majors), all have less than 2 years ML experience. With the young guns seemingly adjusted to pitching, all we need is for The Stick and Pronk to find their strokes and we'll be rolling. The interesting thing is that these young guys seem to have said, "well, the veterans haven't exactly shown us the way, let's figure it out for ourselves."

The lineup is still in flux and the White Sox are still steamrolling through the AL, but my confidence is much higher than it was after the KC series.

With a work trip to Chicago this week in the works (where I will catch a White Sox game at the Cell on Tuesday, accompanied by a work associate from Minneapolis, who happened to coach Joe Mauer in Little League - so I should be up on our Central rivals), I thought that I should do a little comparison of players signed by the Tribe in the off-season, compared to players on their radar, who signed elsewhere. I've narrowed it down to a starter (Millwood), a closer (Wickman), and an outfield bat (should be Gonzalez, but I'll compare Sizemore and Ludwick to the FA crop, as they're the ones who have benefited from the Hamstring from Hell). Also, I'll take a look at Vizquel vs. Peralta. I won't get into your boy A. Boone.

Player W-L ERA WHIP BAA
Millwood 1-3 3.54 1.30 .313
Clement 4-0 3.06 1.40 .338
Lieber 5-2 3.31 1.18 .291

So, what does this tell us? Other than that the Tribe brass targeted the right FA pitchers, Millwood and his salary represent the best bargain. While both Clement and Lieber would be nice in the rotation, not a bad call by Shapiro.

Player S ERA WHIP BAA
Wickman 11 3.77 1.26 .310
Benitez 4 5.79 1.61 .366
Percival 3 3.65 1.14 .308
Hermanson 8 0.00 0.76 .222

Given that Benitez and Percival are both on the DL, not a bad call to take the Sticky One. Even though the appearances are wet and wild, hyperventilating seems to help him with the last 3 outs of the game.

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Sizemore .269 3 14 .724
Ludwick 200 3 4 .774
Alou .271 3 12 .865
Burnitz .287 6 21 .848

This is a tough one to call, though who really expected Juan Gone to play this year. Keep in mind that Grady is 22 and plays center field like he's covering a kick-off. Giving Sizemore at-bats is a plus for the maturation of this club. I could take or leave Ludwick.

Player BA HR RBI OPS Fielding
Peralta .268 5 10 .886 .950
Omar .283 0 14 .748 .983

Keep the Thome Rule in mind here (broken down early with a long-term contract) and I like the way that Jhonny has settled into the lineup. Omar was and is a great player, but Peralta still is only 22 years old, so I'll take the Honey P.

Call me the Eternal Optimist, but I think that the Tribe made some good choices. Sure there are better ones out there, or else they wouldn't be 10 games back in mid-May, but we have to be patient. Victor and Pronk haven't yet hit their strides and Boone HAS to start hitting (doesn't he?)

I'll see you in Comiskey on Tuesday night. I'll be the one encouraging the shirtless drunk onto the field.

The Reason I Don't Manage the Tribe

After debating whether to make the trip to the Jake last night, WEWS' Chief Meteorologist Mark Johnson (he of the plastic hair and uneasy sense of humor) convinced us not to, because Hurricane Andrew was supposed to sweep across the North Coast. After a 15-20 minute downpour and an hour rain delay, the Tribe came back on the field and hung onto victory against the Jays. Should've been watching Tanchak.

When the game started, the lineup looked like a disaster. I see Hernandez batting clean-up and Ludwick hitting 5th while the Indians are trying to put together a winning streak and get some offensive momentum on a crucial homestand. I think to myself, "looks like Wedge picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue." Then, the Atomic Wedgie makes me look like an idiot as the top of the order goes nuts in the first and Bono Broussard (have you heard his cover of U2's With or Without You?) comes through with the big bases-loaded hit. That's why the Atomic Wedgie and his mustache make out the lineup card, not me.

Westbrook still looked shaky last night, though early errors didn't help him. He doesn't seem to be throwing with the same confidence and at the same breakneck pace as he did last year. Maybe his rhythm is off, or maybe he lacks that swagger that he had after owning the Tigers to burst out of the gate in 2004. But, at least Elarton wasn't on the mound.

JDangerously looked like he was going to let it come unglued, instantly giving up the HR to Rios, then bore down and went 2 1/3 of decent ball. Why Wedge would use 5 pitchers, and sap his bullpen, on the first day of a 5 game homestand is beyond me. Maybe so he could have the cameras on him while his face twitched uncontrollably. But, again, I don't make out the lineup card.

Did you notice that a few of the players singled out in the Things That Can Happen at the 40 Game Mark from Monday - Coco and Bono - went absolutely nuts in the Angels series. I mean, I know they want pub for their new CD, but that was unreal.

So, let's see if I mention the Sub-Mendoza boys again, if we can get the reverse jinx going on them:
I don't think Boone and Blake are long for the Tribe Lineup.
There, let's hope that will get them above .200.

Harold Reynolds said the other night on Baseball Tonight that the White Sox are by no means a lock to take the Central. He said that they will lose 6 of 10 or 8 of 10 at some point, just because of the nature of the MLB season. The Tribe just needs to make sure that they're hot while the ChiSox are not. Watching them beat up on the Orioles though, it makes you wonder if they're ever going to slow down.

The Jody Gerut situation will be an interesting one to watch. While the logical move would be to send a struggling Boone to find his stroke (Gerut to RF, Blake to 3B, Boone to Buffalo), Shapiro is unlikely to send Boone to Buffalo; you have to wonder where else Gerut would find a spot. Unbelievable on a team whose offense has struggled so mightily that it seems difficult to find a position for a player who led the team in RBI's 2 years ago, but that seems to be the case. One option would be to platoon Gerut and Blake in right, but after giving Blake a contract over the winter, you have to think that the commitment would be stronger to Casey. Or, you bring Gerut up to take Ludwick's spot. But Ludwick is a Wedge favorite, so Gerut will probably have to prove his worth in upstate NY. Stay tuned to this as Gerut was obviously upset about the assignment to AAA. He may pull a B-Phil and pout (unlikely) or he may pull a Coco and just mash (more likely), forcing Shapiro's hand.

More tomorrow on a comparison of the potential Free Agent signings of the 2004 off-season vs. the actual Free Agent signings of the 2004 off season.

Time to Get Going

After another Wickman Stress Save on Wednesday and a C.C. (and Jason Dangerously) meltdown on Thursday, it's nice to watch the Tribe get on top early and give Cliff Lee some breathing room. Let's hope that the West Coast swing gives the Tribe something to build on.

As I wrote that last sentence, Soriano just hit his second 2 run job to make it 8-5. He just drops the bat when he thinks it's going out. Next to Milton Bradley's batting glove removal, Bonds' cocksure gaze, and Bret Boone's end over end bat launch, Soriano's bat toss bothers me the most.

Interesting Poll and Results on www.indians.com :
Now that C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez's deals have been extended, who should be next?
Ryan Ludwick 97 votes (1%)
Cliff Lee 1443 votes (19%)
Coco Crisp 3860 votes (51%)
Grady Sizemore 1990 votes (26%)
Jason Davis 171 votes (2%)
7561 people have voted so far

Coco Crisp has 51% of the vote?!? Coco Crisp?!? All he's done is proven that he can't hit the cutoff man or leadoff. Let's reward that with a long-term deal. This poll (created by the Indians) is interesting for a number of reasons:

• These polls are often used (I think) by Tribe brass to evaluate fan reaction to what they're considering. Is this the list that's next to get extensions? I hope not.
• Grady Sizmore JUST came up from the minors. Why would you give him an extension? While we're at, let's extend Peralta and Phillips, just for good measure.
• Ludwick is a 4th outfielder AT BEST, yet he makes this list over Ben Broussard and others. How much do you think that Ben factors into the future?
• How is Jason Davis even on this list? He's in the same category as Riske and Betancourt or maybe Tallett and Traber. After his appearance against the Twins, I'm leaning more in the direction of sending him to Buffalo to teach him to pitch late in the games, get some steady work, and PLEASE harness those emotions.
• Cliff Lee is the obvious answer but, despite my best efforts, he falls short of 20%. Everyone must be preoccupied with this K2 mess (Sources say: torn ACL, cracked tibia, fractured femur, and refusing further scans on his right shoulder - cut him...NOW).
• Most importantly, the list shows that the Indians don't have as many "core players" that they would like to have at this point of the rebuilding process. They've already locked those guys up; to identify the guys on this list as "core players" is a serious reach.

Off to Dayton to see the Boy Wonder graduate tomorrow because, as I've been told by a member of the Flying Swytowski Brothers, "nobody puts Baby in the corner".

Random Thoughts

Watching the Tribe take Friday night's game in Detroit, my mind was racing...
...why does Wickman always have really red cheeks while breathing uncomfortably hard when he's pitching?

...since when have the Indians' hats gotten a lighter shade of blue? It certainly is no longer navy.

...the Chief Wahoo logo is getting smaller and smaller. Next time you're at the Jake, try to find him anywhere in the stadium. It' all script "Indians" or the "I" that's supposed to look like a feather.

...Friday's PD carried a picture of CC in his Akron rehab assignment. I thought that I read that he was in the best shape of his career. He looked huge. Maybe it was a tighter uniform, toit like a tiger.

...I like the renewal of the longer hair by players. Boone, Riske, and Ludwick just to name a few have that "baseball curl" coming out of the back of their hats. It certainly isn't a Danny Gravesesque mullet, but it is a step in that direction.

...if Wickman, Rhodes, Riske, Miller, and Rocky keep pitching like they have (Wickman's meltdown notwithstanding), it will go a long way to keeping the Tribe in contention all year.

...you have to like the flexibility of the current lineup. Boone batted 4th last night and came through with the big homer. Hernandez, Cora, and Bard give Wedge the necessary bench players to keep everyone fresh (something that was sorely lacking last year).

...why doesn't Cleveland have a cool "C" for a logo. We used to have the Reds "C" with Chief Wahoo, then the Flintstones "C" of the late 70's, and finally the block "C" of the Andre Thornton era. What would be wrong with the script "C" from Cleveland on the front of the road unis. I've seen guys outside the Jake selling them and they look pretty cool.

...does anyone else see Ben Broussard as a cross between Herbert Perry and Paul Sorrento. I just don't see him on this team when they really start to put it together.

...Jhonny Peralta's inconsistency thus far can be chalked up as inexperience. I think that once he figures it out, he'll be fine.

...who put Ivan Rodriguez's head on Derek Jeter's body. That is scary looking. Just goes to show what can happen when you "eat right in the offseason", you drop 60 lbs. and completely change your body type. Right.

Predictions for 2005

Perusing most national and local prognostications for the 2005 season, the consensus puts the Indians in 2nd place in the Central, behind the Twins, winning between 88-92 games. I would certainly take that season to continue the growth of this process. I think that those goals are attainable and see the Indians sticking around the AL Central race up to the end, when the Twins will unfortunately pull away. Contrary to popular belief, I think that the Tribe will be in the Wild Card race, though it won't be as close, or for as long, as the Central.

Here's the predictions I've seen thus far:
Sports Illustrated: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins (10th best team in ML)
ESPN the Magazine: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins
(with Eric Wedge as AL Manager of the Year, Charlie Manuel as NL Manager of the Year!)
Peter Gammons: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins
-lists Victor Martinez as MVP Candidate
-lists Coco Crisp as a Breakout Player
-lists Aaron Boone as a Comeback Story
-lists Franklin Gutierrez as a potential late-season rookie impact player
Buster Olney: 9th best team in ML (Twins #4)
Plain Dealer: Consensus 2nd in the Central, all behind the Twins with a few exceptions
-Burt Graeff has them winning the Central, with Wedge winning Manager of the Year
-The all-knowing Roger Brown has the White Sox winning the division
Jim Caple of ESPN.com has the Tribe as a Wild Card
Terry Pluto: 2nd in the Central with 88 wins

In anticipation of the Season Opener, I'd like to introduce some nicknames, and re-establish the ones that should, by now, be standard fare for our Tribesmen:
Victor "Vic the Stick" Martinez
"Big" Ben Broussard
Ronnie "Jelly" Belliard
Travis Hafner "Pronk"
C.C. "Colonel Curveball" Sabathia
Jake "the Snake" Westbrook"
Coco Crisp (no need for a nickname, you can't top that)
Casey "and the Sunshine Band" Blake
David Riske "Business"
Bob "Slick" Wickman
Grady "Babyface" Sizemore
Ryan Ludwick "van Beethoven"
Some are cheesy, some are decent, but with Chris Berman no longer doing SportsCenter on a regular basis, I thought it was necessary.

First Pitch tomorrow 3:05PM vs. ChiSox. Jake Westbrook vs. Mark Buehrle. Go Tribe!

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part III

Outfield
With the recent move of Juan Gonzalez to the DL, the outfield remains a fluid area, where 4 players will fill the outfield, changing positions according to whether the team is facing a righty or a lefty. The 4 players in question: Coco Crisp, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Ludwick all bring different skills to the table, thus giving different looks to the lineup. Crisp is the prototypical leadoff hitter (with the exception of his limited number of walks and SB efficiency) in that he is a slap hitter with speed and occasional pop. While he does not walk very often, he has proven himself as legitimate MLB player by outlasting the Alex Escobar Experiment and Sizemore's promotion in 2004. Crisp had a phenomenal spring and should continue to grow as a player as he gets a better understanding of base-stealing. His acquisition as a throw-in for Chuck Finley (where have you gone, Luis Garcia?) remains one of Shapiro's great coups. Blake moves to the outfield after a stellar 2004 campaign at 3B. In the spring, he seems to be acclimating himself well to the outfield, both in his throwing and his attitude. After knocking around the minors for many years, Blake got his chace with the Tribe and took full advantage. After the acquisition of Boone, Blake turned it up a notch, forcing his name into any discussion regarding the future of the team. Though he strikes out more than most in the lineup, he is a steady contributor necessary on a team with a limited payroll. Sizemore, who may be the jewel of the Colon theft of 2002, is a promising player who needs more experience to fulfill his potential. Though there is no one area in which he truly excels, he is a solid, hard-nosed player who should be a mainstay for years to come. Gonzalez's move to the DL did not disappoint many, particularly those who felt that Sizemore simply needed more time to acclimate himself to big league pitching (see Martinez, Victor). Ludwick is the wild card of this group as he has never provem that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. When given the opportunity to be in the lineup, Ludwick has produced and gives the Tribe a possible right-handed run producer. It will be interesting to see how Ludwick and Sizemore, two Wedge favorites, are handled IF Gonzalez recovers from whatever ailment is bothering him that day.

The outfield should look like this: against righties, Crisp in left, Sizemore in center, Blake in right; against lefties, Blake in left, Crisp in center, Ludwick in right. How the players, particularly Crisp and Blake, will handle playing multiple positions may ultimately determine is Sizemore stays in Cleveland for a while or is sent to Buffalo for consistent AB's. Also in the mix is Jose Hernandez, who can bring pop to the lineup when any of the outfielders may need a break. The X Factor is Jody Gerut, who burst on the scene in 2003, but fizzled in 2004 with his season ultimately ending in injury. His beginning the 2004 season as the 3 hitter to not being assured a spot in the lineup when he returns is a testament to the depth and strength of this area of the ballclub.

In the minors, Buffalo is stocked with mainly veterans, while Akron is stacked with Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Jason Cooper. Other outfield prospects include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski who will probably start the year in Kinston. Again, this is a deep position for the Indians, one which can be dipped into as trade bait as time goes on.