Minor Matters

Rather than dwelling on the aberration that was last night's loss to the Rays, (the team flight did get in at 3:30 AM and anyone who has ever flown knows that means that they actually probably got home closer to 5:00 AM), I thought that we could take a look at what's happening on the farm and how the September call-ups may be affected by recent movement on the farm.
Pitching
The pitching staff at Buffalo has been loaded with some of the best young arms in the organization. And, I do mean young. Their starting rotation, with ages listed, is as follows:
Jason Davis - 25
Fausto Carmona - 21
Dan Denham -22
Brian Tallet - 27
Jeremy Guthrie - 26
The old men in this rotation, Tallett and Guthrie, probably figure into the bullpen in the future or will be packaged in the off-season to acquire more depth at positions of need. Billy Traber, who is the long reliever in Buffalo (you read that correctly), would fit into that category as well. It will be interesting to see if the Tribe tries to turn Tallet or Traber into a left-handed specialist in the event that Scott Sauerbeck moves on for 2006.

For September, I would expect Davis, Carmona, Tallet, Guthrie and more bullpen arms (Francisco Cruceta, Andrew Brown, Jose Diaz) to be brought up to give some depth and also to audition for (presumably) 2 spots that will open in the bullpen for next year. All of these players are currently on the 40 man roster. Those arms would probably be replaced by the studs in Akron (Jeremy Sowers, Jake Dittler, Mariano Gomez, Bear Bay, Edward Mujica) for Buffalo to make a run at the International League title.

Looking at the pitching in this organization (and even realizing that injuries are inevitable and not everyone will pan out), the depth and quality of arms is alarming. Every minor league affiliate's pitching staff is talented, with a nice mix of arms.

Offense
The recent call-up of Franklin Gutierrez to replace the DL-bound Ryan Ludwick gives the Bisons an outfield of Gutierrez, Jason Dubois, and Jason Cooper. The only missing major prospect in that mix is Brad Snyder, who remains in Akron.
The Bisons lineup looks like a who's who of upper-tier hitting prospects, with the exception of 2B Joe Inglett (who is a nice little player) and DH Andy Abad. Every other player - 1B Garko, SS B-Phil, 3B Gatreau, and C Cardona (to a degree), and the outfielders listed above - represents a viable option for a September call-up and for a push in Spring Training in 2006.

For September call-ups, don't be surprised if Garko, Phillips, Gatreau, and Dubois are the only prospects getting called up. There remains a possibility of calling another catcher up to rest Victor, but do we really want to rest Victor for Dusty Wathan in the middle of a pennant race?
A catcher will probably get called up, if only for insurance purposes, as well as a few veterans - probably Ernie Young, Andy Abad, and Jose Morban (if only to give the Tribe 40 warm bodies). Those players, again, would probably be replaced by deserving Akron prospects (Ryan Mulhern, Eider Torres, Pat Osborn, and Brad Snyder), to keep Buffalo in the mix for another IL title.

In addition, the way that Buffalo and Akron are lining up for next year look like the Indians should be able to add impact rookies into holes for the next few years. This would avoid the mess of Free Agency as well as allowing the Tribe to lock up their own young in-house talent (Sizemore, Peralta, Lee, etc.) not already signed to long term deals, by not overspending on an aging FA who may or may not pan out. Compare today's situation to the dearth of minor league talent at the end of the 90's, and the scouting department and Front Office (as well as the Dolans for pouring money into the farm system) have to be commended.

Let's hope thatlast night's hiccup against the Rays is rectified tonight and tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I won't be watching tonight, as I'll be witnessing the (miraculous) nuptials of loyal poster Cy Slapnicka in Akron. Interestingly, Cy's namesake was mentioned in a recent Sports Illustrated article as the REAL Cy Slapnicka was the Indians scout who signed the greatest Indian of the all, Rapid Robert Feller.

Congrats Cy and good luck finding Tribe broadcasts in the Mexican Riviera (I couldn't find a Browns' game for the life of me there in 2002). Then again, if you're looking for Tribe broadcasts every night on your honeymoon, we need to have a talk.

The Cure-All

Looks like Royals pitchers D.J. Carrasco and Jimmy Gobble were just what the doctor ordered for the struggling bats.

The way that the Tribe plays against the Royals, in comparison to the tone of the team when playing the Yanks or the Pale Hose, is remarkable. The Tribe comes out hungry and takes advantage of mistakes made by the lesser Kansas City team. Actually, it's similar to the way that the White Sox came out against the Indians on Friday night.
The only exception to this rule was when the Wahoos went into Boston, then Baltimore, and went right after some good teams in their stadiums. That attitude, or maturation, is the next step for this team. Whether it comes this year or not is unknown, but you have to think that the Atomic Wedgie knows WHAT needs to be done, maybe just not HOW to teach this team to do it yet.

Cliff Lee was dealing tonight when the rain hit. The Royals were obviously overmatched when Lee had his good stuff going (striking out the side in the 5th as the tornado siren blared). Also, Lee didn't let a rough first blow up into a 6 on the board and toughened up to shut the Royals down, giving the Tribe a chance to take the lead and take advantage of the Royals pitchers. Can C.C. watch tape of that, and take notes...please? Lee's got great stuff and could be a solid 3 or even a 2 starter for a long time on the North Coast. His attitude is second to none either: no frills, just his best stuff challenging hitters.

It was reported by WTAM tonight that the Soriano rumor (Soriano for Brad Snyder & Andrew Brown) from ESPN.com was created by a Dallas columnist, completely from his imagination. In reality, the Rangers asked for SuperSizemore and Le Pronque for Soriano. OUCH! Can we throw in the complete Aeros roster while we're at it, Mr. Hart?
Gammons also reported that the Reds are looking for 3-4 Major League ready prospects for either Randa or Kearns, essentially making them unattainable/undesirable.
That RH bat might be more unlikely as the calendar draws closer to August, particularly if the Rangers stay in the Wild Card (and Mench becomes entrenched as a vital cog of their offense).

Time to get fat on some Kansas City BBQ.

Squarely on These Shoulders

I'll be hitting the game tonight, then getting out of town. The next three days will be the real test of my 1-8 record (including 6 losses in a row).

I couldn't help but envision Soriano in the lineup last night as a WHOPPING 21,000 watched the 1-0 game with me. I would make the trade of Soriano for Brad Snyder and Andrew Brown in a heartbeat (mentioned in the comments by TB, straight off of the ESPN pay to read section). In fact, I'd give up A LOT more. Can he play RF? Who's the odd man out? Hernandez? Blake?

Actually, the 21,000+ crowd was the most into the game that I've seen this year (no wave, standing up for 3rd strikes, nice ovations to Millwood).

I'm in for retiring Olin's #31 jersey (again, see the comments if you're confused). Though I think that the current set-up probably makes more sense.

If they lose tonight, I may never go back to the Jake.

Prospect Update

With the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft happening today (which I've never heard anyone refer to as their Christmas), I thought it would be interesting to see what the Tribe's Top 10 Prospects, as determined this off-season by Baseball America, are faring in the 2005 campaign.

1. Adam Miller RHP - Currently on the DL in Kinston, with an eye for a return in the near future. This 20 year old, whose fast track to Cleveland has hit a little road bump, needs to prove that he is healthy before continuing his seemingly obvious trip to Jacobs Field.
2. Michael Aubrey 1B - Also currently on the DL in Akron after playing 27 games, hitting .288 with 4 HR and 19 RBI. A modestly impressive OPS of .816 shows that Aubrey can certainly hit, if he can only stay healthy. BA's timetable of a midseason call-up to Buffalo with an eye to challenging Broussard in 2006 may be premature.
3. Franklin Gutierrez OF - AGAIN, currently on the DL in Akron after playing 44 games, hitting a paltry.238 with 3 HR and 17 RBI. His OPS, a miserable of .694 (though not bad when compared to some in the Tribe lineup) may be an indication that Gutierrez tried to play through pain unsuccessfully. Again, he may still full need another full season in the minors before challenging the mighty Coco Crisp (wait, what?).
4. Brad Snyder OF - Hitting .274 in Kinston, with 5 HR and 24 RBI is less than what the Tribe expects from this former 1st round pick, who continues to develop rather slowly. The hope is that his body will fill out, transforming him into a corner outfielder; but it doesn't look like that's happened yet for the Ball State grad.
5. Jeremy Sowers LHP - The 2004 first rounder has impressed at Kinston, with a 7-3 record and a 2.63 ERA. He's also punched out 65 batters in 61 2/3 innings while posting a 1.04 WHIP. Look for Sowers to move up to Akron as the season goes on and the parent club dips into the minors for some help.
6. Fausto Carmona RHP - Currently 4-4 in Akron's rotation, posting a 3.89 ERA and the opposition hitting .262 against him. Though still only 21, his fast track has hit a snag in Akron, where he's spending another year. If Buffalo loses someone in the rotation, look for Carmona to get the call-up, but some feel that his stuff may translate better in the bullpen for the future.
7. Fernando Cabrera RHP - The last man out of the pen in Spring Training has pitched like a man possessed in Buffalo, posting a 5-0 record, a 0.84 ERA, 43 K's in 32 IP, and an improbable WHIP of 0.91! He's doing it as the set-up man for Jake Robbins, so he's not ready to close just yet. But those numbers are hard to ignore. Cabrera's monster start in Buffalo gives the parent club some options to possibly move a bullpen piece for some offense (more on that later). Cabrera should be in Cleveland at some point before the All-Star break. Does anyone else get Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona mixed up, or am I the only one who lies awake at night trying to remember which is which?
8. Ryan Garko C/1B - His right handed stick continues to mash, though at a lesser pace than last year, compiling 8 HR and 28 RBI in 52 games. His average of .250 could certainly use some work, but his OPS of .786 keeps him in the discussion. The big problem with Garko is that he is blocked at the ML level by some long-term contract players. He is first a C (The Stick), then a DH (Le Pronk), and finally a decent 1B (Broussard). The Tribe brass will struggle to find a spot for Garko, but let's hope that his hitting forces his bat down I-90 into a spot (right-handed, no less) into the lineup.
9. Nick Pesco RHP - Currently 6-4 with a 3.45 ERA in the Kinston starting rotation, Pesco has adapted well to High A hitters and should tag along with Sowers on the path to Akron as the season progresses.
10. Andrew Brown RHP - Brown has disappointed in Buffalo, going 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA. There are other arms in Buffalo who have passed Brown up in the pecking order for a bullpen arm, notably Kaz Tadano and Chad Zerbe (a lefty).

Having impressive seasons thus far, but missing from the list from each level (AAA to High A) are:

Buffalo - Jake Gatreau, 3B, who was acquired for Corey Smith from the Padres in a swap of 1st Round Busts. All Jake has done is hit .295 with 11 HR and 30 RBI, while posting a .891 OPS. While the Aaron Boone Experiment (good name for a band) continues, Gatreau is blocked; but keep your eye on this 3B.

Akron - Dan Denham, P, who is 4-2 in Akron, with a 2.98 ERA and the opposition batting .198 against him. Denham, a former 1st round pick, may find himself leap-frogging some of the pitchers listed above if he continues his solid year.

Kinston - Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, is another purveyor of the hot corner in the bushes who is impressing early on in the 2005 campaign. Hitting .346 with 9 HR and 45 RBI in 49 games is not even the most impressive stat. His OPS tops the 1000 plateau, sitting at 1.014! With Akron's offense struggling, Kouzmanoff shoud get the call to come up north soon.

In response to What Can Be Done of yesterday, I ran across an interesting trade proposal from the Indians Compendium (http://www.insidethecomp.blogspot.com) a couple of days ago. He writes:
The Phillies Get:
RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez
The Indians Get:
2B/3B Placido Polanco
All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Makes sense to me, but staying up to watch the Tribe play the Padres until 1AM doesn't. Looks like Casey Coleman will have to let me know the results at 7:40.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part III

Outfield
With the recent move of Juan Gonzalez to the DL, the outfield remains a fluid area, where 4 players will fill the outfield, changing positions according to whether the team is facing a righty or a lefty. The 4 players in question: Coco Crisp, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Ludwick all bring different skills to the table, thus giving different looks to the lineup. Crisp is the prototypical leadoff hitter (with the exception of his limited number of walks and SB efficiency) in that he is a slap hitter with speed and occasional pop. While he does not walk very often, he has proven himself as legitimate MLB player by outlasting the Alex Escobar Experiment and Sizemore's promotion in 2004. Crisp had a phenomenal spring and should continue to grow as a player as he gets a better understanding of base-stealing. His acquisition as a throw-in for Chuck Finley (where have you gone, Luis Garcia?) remains one of Shapiro's great coups. Blake moves to the outfield after a stellar 2004 campaign at 3B. In the spring, he seems to be acclimating himself well to the outfield, both in his throwing and his attitude. After knocking around the minors for many years, Blake got his chace with the Tribe and took full advantage. After the acquisition of Boone, Blake turned it up a notch, forcing his name into any discussion regarding the future of the team. Though he strikes out more than most in the lineup, he is a steady contributor necessary on a team with a limited payroll. Sizemore, who may be the jewel of the Colon theft of 2002, is a promising player who needs more experience to fulfill his potential. Though there is no one area in which he truly excels, he is a solid, hard-nosed player who should be a mainstay for years to come. Gonzalez's move to the DL did not disappoint many, particularly those who felt that Sizemore simply needed more time to acclimate himself to big league pitching (see Martinez, Victor). Ludwick is the wild card of this group as he has never provem that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. When given the opportunity to be in the lineup, Ludwick has produced and gives the Tribe a possible right-handed run producer. It will be interesting to see how Ludwick and Sizemore, two Wedge favorites, are handled IF Gonzalez recovers from whatever ailment is bothering him that day.

The outfield should look like this: against righties, Crisp in left, Sizemore in center, Blake in right; against lefties, Blake in left, Crisp in center, Ludwick in right. How the players, particularly Crisp and Blake, will handle playing multiple positions may ultimately determine is Sizemore stays in Cleveland for a while or is sent to Buffalo for consistent AB's. Also in the mix is Jose Hernandez, who can bring pop to the lineup when any of the outfielders may need a break. The X Factor is Jody Gerut, who burst on the scene in 2003, but fizzled in 2004 with his season ultimately ending in injury. His beginning the 2004 season as the 3 hitter to not being assured a spot in the lineup when he returns is a testament to the depth and strength of this area of the ballclub.

In the minors, Buffalo is stocked with mainly veterans, while Akron is stacked with Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Jason Cooper. Other outfield prospects include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski who will probably start the year in Kinston. Again, this is a deep position for the Indians, one which can be dipped into as trade bait as time goes on.