Predictions for 2005

Perusing most national and local prognostications for the 2005 season, the consensus puts the Indians in 2nd place in the Central, behind the Twins, winning between 88-92 games. I would certainly take that season to continue the growth of this process. I think that those goals are attainable and see the Indians sticking around the AL Central race up to the end, when the Twins will unfortunately pull away. Contrary to popular belief, I think that the Tribe will be in the Wild Card race, though it won't be as close, or for as long, as the Central.

Here's the predictions I've seen thus far:
Sports Illustrated: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins (10th best team in ML)
ESPN the Magazine: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins
(with Eric Wedge as AL Manager of the Year, Charlie Manuel as NL Manager of the Year!)
Peter Gammons: 2nd in the Central, behind the Twins
-lists Victor Martinez as MVP Candidate
-lists Coco Crisp as a Breakout Player
-lists Aaron Boone as a Comeback Story
-lists Franklin Gutierrez as a potential late-season rookie impact player
Buster Olney: 9th best team in ML (Twins #4)
Plain Dealer: Consensus 2nd in the Central, all behind the Twins with a few exceptions
-Burt Graeff has them winning the Central, with Wedge winning Manager of the Year
-The all-knowing Roger Brown has the White Sox winning the division
Jim Caple of ESPN.com has the Tribe as a Wild Card
Terry Pluto: 2nd in the Central with 88 wins

In anticipation of the Season Opener, I'd like to introduce some nicknames, and re-establish the ones that should, by now, be standard fare for our Tribesmen:
Victor "Vic the Stick" Martinez
"Big" Ben Broussard
Ronnie "Jelly" Belliard
Travis Hafner "Pronk"
C.C. "Colonel Curveball" Sabathia
Jake "the Snake" Westbrook"
Coco Crisp (no need for a nickname, you can't top that)
Casey "and the Sunshine Band" Blake
David Riske "Business"
Bob "Slick" Wickman
Grady "Babyface" Sizemore
Ryan Ludwick "van Beethoven"
Some are cheesy, some are decent, but with Chris Berman no longer doing SportsCenter on a regular basis, I thought it was necessary.

First Pitch tomorrow 3:05PM vs. ChiSox. Jake Westbrook vs. Mark Buehrle. Go Tribe!

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part IV

Starting Pitching
The addition of Kevin Millwood should be the main determining factor in the role of the starting pitching in the AL Central race. Millwood's health as the season progresses will determine whether the Indians stay with Minnesota for the Central or have to depend on young arms to carry the burden. Oblique muscle notwithstanding, C.C. Sabathia remains the "ace" of the rotation, if only because he has the highest cieling and seems to embrace the thought of being a true No. 1. If reports are to be believed, C.C. is in the best shape of his life and is ready to tackle the opponents' ace every 5. There is no questioning C.C.'s stuff, but he must become mentally tougher to establish himself as an elite pitcher. Though he is still young, Sabathia often lapses into mental mistakes and lets his emotions get the best of him, affecting his performance negatively. This year should decide whether the Indians approach Sabathia with a long-term deal (a la Johan Santana) or let C.C. ride out his current contract. Here's hoping that Sabathia enters that elite status and carries the Tribe during his starts as he is capable of doing.
Jake Westbrook parlayed a few tremendous middle relief outings into an exceptional 2004 season. When his sinker is working, Westbrook gets ground ball outs while working quickly and efficiently. If Westbrook is cruising, expect a game under 2 1/2 hours at the park. The loss of Omar may affect Jake the most as Jhonny Peralta is an unproven commodity as SS. Boone, Belliard, and Broussard are all solid defenders, but Westbrook is so dependent upon good fielding that the loss of Omar's ability to get to the hole may affect Westbrook's performance in 2005. Kevin Millwood steps into the 3 spot with less expectations than a Matt Clement or Jon Lieber, but also less certainty about his health. If Millwood is healthy, his signing is a major coup for the Tribe as he is a veteran innings-eater who learned at the knees of the Big 3 in Atlanta. His tutelage could be vital to the development of some of the Indians' young arms. However, if Millwood is not healthy, he pushes everyone behind him in the rotation up and puts more pressure on Cliff Lee, Scott Elarton, and Jason Davis/Brian Tallett/Billy Traber/whoever. And that "whoever" is big because Millwood's presence stabilizes the rotation and allows everyone to settle into their "spot", just as Bob Wickman does in the bullpen.
Cliff Lee lived through 2 seasons last year that saw him cruise through the All-Star break, only to completely break down for the stretch run. The experience that the lefty must build upon is a strong finish to last year, which will hopefully lead to a strong start and increased confidence. The innings and experience under his belt from last year can only help as he makes his push to be a solid 2 or 3 in the rotation of the future.
Scott Elarton, who was pulled off of the scrap heap last year to perform adequately for the Tribe, is a potential solid 5. His delivery scares some as he has experienced mechanics problems in the past, but as long as he can keep the Indians in the games that he pitches against the other number 5's, he is a bargain.
Waiting in the immediate wings are Jason Davis, who will get his shot with Sabathia's oblique injury, Brian Tallet, who impressed in Spring Training, Billy Traber, who is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Kyle Denney, still trying to shake off the go-go boot incident (just kidding), Jason Stanford, another Tommy John victim, Jeremy Guthrie, who after being derailed last year is still trying to justify his signing bonus, and Francisco Cruceta, whose temperment may keep him in Buffalo or make him part of a package. Some of those pitchers, notably Davis and Tallet, may translate to the pen as time progresses.
On the horizon are Fausto Carmona, who may also eventually end up in the pen, Adam Miller, the shelved Golden Boy of the organization, Brian Slocum, J.D. Martin, Jake Dittler, and Jeremy Sowers, last year's first-round pick.
Bullpen
After last year, it couldn't get worse...could it? Not with this year's revamped bullpen, of course assuming that Bob Wickman can stay healthy. The bullpen begins with Wickman, who is out to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season. His saves aren't pretty, but he is effective and his presence allows the rest of the bullpen to sort itself out into defined roles. Setting up for Wick will be Bob Howry, who was impressive last year after coming off an injury. Howry will step in for Wickman if need be, though let's hope he doesn't have to. The presence of Scott Sauerbeck and Arthur Rhodes give the Indians something they were sorely lacking last year, a veteran lefty who can come in to get one guy out, Paul Assenmacher style. After suffering through Scott Stewart, then Cliff Bartosh, one of the two of Sauerbeck and Rhodes has to step up to take some pressure off of the rest of the bullpen. The guess here is that Rhodes will return to his Seattle form, now that the lofty expectations of Billy Beane are far away. Rhodes' salary should be enough to make sure he sticks around. The rest of the bullpen is what remains from the disaster of last year. David Riske, who proved that he can't close, will be back doing what he does best: working the 7th inning effectively. Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt won the final two spots in the pen this Spring, after a spirited run by Brian Tallet. Miller, the bespeckled sidearmer, is particularly effective against righties while lefties seem to crush him. Betancourt lives his life throwing strikes, for better or worse. Both should do well in their new roles, to which they are better suited than setting up and closing (which they did last year).
Should injuries or ineffectiveness get to the pen, help is not far away. Brian Tallet's strong Spring should tranlate into his name being the first called in a pinch. Sabathia's return could mean the return of Davis to the pen, where his stuff and his tempermant are better suited. Davis, with some seasoning, could turn into another Joe Nathan, capable of closing games very effectively. Another potential closer in the organization is Fernando Cabrera, whose lights-out stuff hasn't translated in the bigs yet. Also just a phone call away are Kaz Tadano, who seems to be the only Japanese reliever not instantly successful in America, and Andrew Brown, a big righty acquired in the Milton Bradley deal who needs to learn how to relieve in the minors for a while.

Whew, with that out of the way, next up is predictions and random thoughts, which will be more in line with the flavor of the blog.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part III

Outfield
With the recent move of Juan Gonzalez to the DL, the outfield remains a fluid area, where 4 players will fill the outfield, changing positions according to whether the team is facing a righty or a lefty. The 4 players in question: Coco Crisp, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Ludwick all bring different skills to the table, thus giving different looks to the lineup. Crisp is the prototypical leadoff hitter (with the exception of his limited number of walks and SB efficiency) in that he is a slap hitter with speed and occasional pop. While he does not walk very often, he has proven himself as legitimate MLB player by outlasting the Alex Escobar Experiment and Sizemore's promotion in 2004. Crisp had a phenomenal spring and should continue to grow as a player as he gets a better understanding of base-stealing. His acquisition as a throw-in for Chuck Finley (where have you gone, Luis Garcia?) remains one of Shapiro's great coups. Blake moves to the outfield after a stellar 2004 campaign at 3B. In the spring, he seems to be acclimating himself well to the outfield, both in his throwing and his attitude. After knocking around the minors for many years, Blake got his chace with the Tribe and took full advantage. After the acquisition of Boone, Blake turned it up a notch, forcing his name into any discussion regarding the future of the team. Though he strikes out more than most in the lineup, he is a steady contributor necessary on a team with a limited payroll. Sizemore, who may be the jewel of the Colon theft of 2002, is a promising player who needs more experience to fulfill his potential. Though there is no one area in which he truly excels, he is a solid, hard-nosed player who should be a mainstay for years to come. Gonzalez's move to the DL did not disappoint many, particularly those who felt that Sizemore simply needed more time to acclimate himself to big league pitching (see Martinez, Victor). Ludwick is the wild card of this group as he has never provem that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. When given the opportunity to be in the lineup, Ludwick has produced and gives the Tribe a possible right-handed run producer. It will be interesting to see how Ludwick and Sizemore, two Wedge favorites, are handled IF Gonzalez recovers from whatever ailment is bothering him that day.

The outfield should look like this: against righties, Crisp in left, Sizemore in center, Blake in right; against lefties, Blake in left, Crisp in center, Ludwick in right. How the players, particularly Crisp and Blake, will handle playing multiple positions may ultimately determine is Sizemore stays in Cleveland for a while or is sent to Buffalo for consistent AB's. Also in the mix is Jose Hernandez, who can bring pop to the lineup when any of the outfielders may need a break. The X Factor is Jody Gerut, who burst on the scene in 2003, but fizzled in 2004 with his season ultimately ending in injury. His beginning the 2004 season as the 3 hitter to not being assured a spot in the lineup when he returns is a testament to the depth and strength of this area of the ballclub.

In the minors, Buffalo is stocked with mainly veterans, while Akron is stacked with Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Jason Cooper. Other outfield prospects include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski who will probably start the year in Kinston. Again, this is a deep position for the Indians, one which can be dipped into as trade bait as time goes on.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part II

Second Base
At the conclusion of the 2004 campaign, much of the speculation surrounding the 2005 squad revolved around the question of whether Ronnie Belliard would return, or if Casey Blake would begin a new position with the acquisition of Aaron Boone. That speculation was ended when Belliard re-signed with the Tribe. Belliard's 2004 All-Star season started very strongly, with a gradual slow-down as the season wore on. Belliard's bat and quick turn at second were a big reason for the Indians being in the race for the Central up to late August. But, as the Tribe fell in the standings, Belliard's numbers fell as well. The book on Belliard was always that he carried too much weight to last a full season at 100%. Belliard finished with good numbers, but he certainly tailed off as the "dog days" of summer dragged on. With this in mind, Shapiro has brought in some insurance in the form of Alex Cora. Cora, brought in from the Dodgers, gives Eric Wedge the opportunity to rest Belliard periodically without a dramatic drop-off. This flexibility is a stark contrast to 2004, when John McDonald (although a great clubhouse presence) could not give the lineup very much, forcing Belliard to play in many games. It will be interesting to see if Belliard can build on his strong 2004 campaign, or if Alex Cora makes a push with his slick glove and high OPS. Look for Cora, signed through the end of the 2006 season, to play more seriously in the long-term plans as the season progresses. On the farm, this is an unusually weak position for the Tribe, particularly if Brandon Phillips remains a shortstop.
Shortstop
Replacing a legend is never easy, and Jhonny Peralta has stepped squarely into a spot that has only known one pair of shoes for the last 11 years, those of Omar Vizquel. Peralta will try to translate his 2004 MVP season in the International League to a successful 2005 campaign. His cup of coffee when Omar went down 2 years ago ensures that Peralta won't be overwhelmed by the new experience, but let's hope that the expectations and Cleveland's love affair with Omar don't have a negative effect on this talented youngster. Peralta's glove certainly won't come close to Omar's (whose does?), but he gives a different feel to the position. That being said, the contract the Vizquel signed with the Giants was so outrageous, in length and compensation, that few can blame the Indians for letting the natural progression of a potential star continue. Peralta is more in line with the body types of the shortstops of the late 90's (Tejada, Renteria, etc.) than Omar was, though he is nowhere near those perennial All-Stars. His ability to hit consistently and drive in runs will mature over the course of the season as he becomes more comfortable. Luckily for him, he will most likely bat out of the 9 hole, where pressure is minimal. Peralta's "competition" this spring, Brandon Phillips, is ticketed to start the season in Buffalo to once again see if he can hit. Phillips' future in the organization may be tied to the way that Peralta's body develops as he matures. If Peralta gains 15-20 pounds, a move to third could clear the way for Phillips to figure into the Tribe's plans once again. If not, Phillips could be used as trade bait as he is still a high profile prospect. Brandon Pinckney, slated to started in Akron, is the only other legitimate prospect in the organization.
Third Base
Casey Blake's career year in 2004 earned him...a move from third to the outfield. Though this seems to defy logic, the signing of Aaron Boone is the real cause for the move. Boone signed with the Indians after his much publicized basketball injury after a brief stint with the Yankees. Boone should add a veteran presence, that the team lost in Vizquel and Matt Lawton, that will stabilize a young clubhouse. If Boone can put up a typical year for him: solid play at third, decent average, solid numbers, the move helps the club more by getting Blake into the outfield to replace the quickly aging Matt Lawton. For insurance, Jose Hernandez can fill in for Boone adequately. Through the organization, this is a deep position. Even after the trade of Corey Smith to the Padres, the Tribe is stacked with Pat Osborn, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Matt Whitney, not to mention Jake Gatreau (the player acquired in the Smith deal).

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part I

With Game 1 looming on Monday, it's time to take a look at the Indians 2005 roster to analyze the team that Mark Shapiro has been building for contention.
Catchers
The position is the strongest it has been in years, with Victor Martinez solidifying his status as a solid run-producer after his insertion into the cleanup spot last year. Martinez should continue to grow, along with the other young bats in the lineup, by using last year's experience as he attempts to replicate his 2004 All-Star achievement. Just 26, Martinez should continue to improve on his defense and game-calling skills as he becomes more confident and comfortable with himself. His throwing improved at the end of last year, though it remains a weakness.
In Josh Bard, the Indians finally have a dependable backup (no disrespect to Tim Laker) that is able to log significant innings donning the tools of ignorance. Bard excels in his defense and handling of the pitchers, though it remains to be seen how his hitting will fare after his hernia operation last year.
This position runs deep for the Tribe as well, with Ryan Garko ticketed to start in Buffalo, and Javier Herrera, David Wallace filling out the upper levels of the minors. Don't be surprised if a lower-level catcher becomes trade bait mid-season.
First Base
Ben Broussard established himself as the 2005 starting first baseman after a nasty slump in mid-season. His glovework remains solid, but Broussard must build on his success in the latter months of the season to ensure himself a spot in the lineup after 2005. Eric Wedge seems confident that Broussard is his man, but skepticism remains.
Travis Hafner, though a 1B in name only, will get the majority of the DH starts. Hafner should see some action in the field in NL parks to keep his stick in the lineup. Hafner crushed his way to a terrific season, slowed only by a nagging elbow injury, which was rectified in the off-season. Hafner's patience at the plate is unusual for a power hitter of his size, but it also is instrumental in setting the tone for the "One to Nine" approach of the 2005 Tribe.
Jose Hernandez, and possibly Casey Blake, will fill in periodically.
Racing his way through the minors is Michael Aubrey, the former first-round pick slated to start in Buffalo. If Aubrey continues to rake the way that he has, Broussard's days could be numbered as the starting first baseman. All reports on Aubrey indicate that he is a slick fielding, doubles hitting lefty. Very similar to Broussard, so it will be interesting to see how this situation plays out this year and next year. Another name to watch is Ryan Garko, who tore his way through the minors last year. Though a catcher by trade, he may project into a 1B/DH in the very near future. Shapiro seems (unlike his predecessor John Hart) to favor players with more upside, as opposed to relying heavily on experience.