Well...What Are You Waiting For?

With the pitching match-up out of the way, the lineup comparison was next on my to-do list, but finding My Teams are Cursed’s excellent lineup breakdown – there’s not much to add to it, and maybe another High Life tonight to calm my nerves would be a better use of my time at this point.

The only eyebrow-raiser that I caught my eye with MTAC’s comparison would be the “even” call on Asdrubal and Pedroia. While AstroCab has served as the spark for the Tribe for the past few months, Pedroia has been doing it all season; however, examining the season totals proves the point that the players are not as dissimilar as one would think.
Cabrera - .283 BA / .354 OBP / .421 SLG / .775 OPS
Pedroia - .317 BA / .380 OBP / .442 SLG / .823 OPS
Though Pedroia has slightly better numbers, the main variance between the two is essentially the attention that the Red Sox 2B has received.

Outside of the MTAC analysis, obviously everyone knows about Manny and Papi as limiting their impact is a key to the Indians' success. But, if you’ve heard of baseball, you already knew that. The players outside of the two sluggers in Boston that have me worried are Mike Lowell, Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis. Lowell, hitting right after the Big 2, scares me in that the pitchers can’t make the mistake of taking a breath and underestimating the 3B, particularly with FA looking him in the face. Pedroia seems like the kind of player that shows up in the postseason (like Eckstein and Counsell before him) to become the annoying pest that never seems to make an out and is always on base. But Youkilis is the player that most strikes me as the kind of player who shines on the big stage, as calls of "Youk" from the Fenway Faithful bring bile to my mouth. Not sure why, as Youkilis seems like the kind of player I'd love on the Indians, but I see Youkilis being that A.J. Pierzynski/Paul O'Neill type of foil that will plague the Tribe throughout the series.

On the Indians side of things, I love the way the top of the lineup looks against all of the RH starters with Grady (LH), Asdrubal (SH), Hafner (LH), and Victor (SH) matching up very nicely with the RH heavy Red Sox staff. The top of the order will be tantamount for the Tribe’s success as most of the rest of the lineup (Garko, Jhonny, Casey, Frank the Tank) are all RH and will be facing some pretty nasty stuff from the right side of the rubber. Trot Nixon’s LH bat will surely get some looks…so long as he doesn’t have to patrol the field.

With all of the heady analysis out of the way and the breakdowns thoroughly complete, it’s finally time to play some games – so how about a prediction?

The Indians find themselves looking into a mirror facing the Red Sox in the ALCS as the two best teams in baseball lock horns. Both teams boast top-of-the-rotation studs, decent (if not great) depth to fill out the rotation, a solid bullpen, and a patient and balanced offense. All the way down the line, the Red Sox have an answer for the Indians…but the Indians also have an answer for the Red Sox.

The teams are evenly matched enough, that this series feels like it might come down to the way the ball bounces, an arbitrary play that turns out to be huge, or even a controversial or momentous moment that swings the tide in favor of one or the other team. When it’s all said and done, though, the playoffs are all about pitching and against any other team, the Indians quality and depth gives them a huge advantage. But the Red Sox have Beckett, Schilling, and Papelbon at their disposal – players worthy of the high praise bestowed upon them – to counter C.C., Fausto, and the Raffies.

Assuming that the projected pitching match-ups hold up, I see Beckett and C.C. splitting home and home and the Indians and Red Sox splitting the Westbrook/Dice-K and Byrd/Wakefield starts. The ace in the hole for the Indians remains Carmona, who will beat Schilling (ironically by playing the same role that Schilling did for the 2001 D-Backs) twice and be the difference in the series.

This feels like a heavyweight battle, with two evenly matched opponents squaring off against each other, exchanging punches until the first one falls…or the first one pulls themselves up off the mat first to hoist the AL Trophy.
Remind you of anything?
Yo, Cleveland…they’re gonna do it.
Indians in 6.