1994 vs. 2005

Despite taking the series (2 of 3) from the Jays, the Tribe finds itself behind the Yankees, who took advantage of playing the Royals to stake a lead in the Wild Card. Interestingly, the A's have pulled ahead of the Angels, who were swept by the Rays in St. Pete, in the West. That's right, those same Rays, that the Tribe took 3 of 4 from, knocked the "mighty" Halos off of their perch in the AL West.

Elarton will lead the Tribe into the Jake tomorrow to face Jeremy Bonderman. I'm hoping that a crowd of more than 20,000 show up; we ARE in a playoff race at the end of August. I guess that taste of letting Sandy Alomar go is still bitter in a lot of mouths.

Speaking of Sandy, I was thinking about how this year's Tribe reminds me of the 1994 team, with young talent sparking the way to meaningful games late in the season (strike notwithstanding). This team, however, seems to be made up of more players that fit into the "Cleveland" profile of hard-workers, accessible players, and overachievers.

The teams of the late '90s had players that, while immensely talented, never embraced the city the way that Cleveland begged to be embraced, particularly after the Browns left. In addition to the obviousness surliness of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton always carried himself with an arrogance (remember how he dropped his bat on home after ball 4?) that Cleveland fans believed was a "swagger" that set the tone. In fact, I think that most of those players were out for themselves and their stats while subscribing more readily to the old "25 players, 25 cabs" relationship, allowing their unbelievable talent to make up for shortcomings in chemistry. How many of those players were genuinely likable? Carlos Baerga was, as was Alvaro Espinoza. The argument can be made that Manny, Thome, and Omar were likable; or was it that we wanted SO badly to have that one true hero that we threw the mantle of "Cleveland's Best" on those three, in that order, until they ultimately left town for greener (pun intended) pastures.

Those teams were likable for the brand of baseball that they played (pummel opponents into submission) and because of the improbable 1995 season, when it seemed like they won every other game in the bottom of the 9th. That season is what truly captured the city's attention. You feared to miss a game, lest you miss Belle's bomb off of Lee Smith or Eckersley walking off the mound saying,"WOW" after Manny did what he does. The players became heros because of what they did individually, not how they played as a team.

The 2005 team, however, seems to have players that play well together, often conveying a chemistry that probably isn't seen too often in an MLB clubhouse. Between Victor's ridiculous handshakes, Grady's almost otherworldly confidence (not to be confused with Lofton's arrogance), and Pronk's quotability (he said that he finished in the top 10 academically in his high school class, later chiming in that it was a class of 8), I cannot help but root for this team.

Since 2001, I've been determined to live by the idea that you cheer for the name of the front of the uniform, not the back. As the end of the '90s showed, becoming emotionally attached to individual players only leads to resementment towards the modern professional athlete.

However, I'm on board of this talented group of players, who seem to play their guts out every game (to use a Butch Davis term), never giving up.

Let's look at this weekend. Grady had a straight steal of home with 2 strikes on the player with the 3rd highest Average in the AL! Hafner hit two MONSTER bombs! The Stick had 7 straight hits! Millwood responds to the fact that he gets ZERO run support by saying, what's he going to do cry about it? He'd rather have a beer.

How is this town NOT embracing this team?!?

Off of the soapbox, with Miller and Rhodes on the DL, the bullpen remains lights-out as Bobby Howry seems to have hit another level as a set-up man. Seeing as how Wickman, Howry, and Sauerbeck are the only relievers not under contract next year, I see the 2006 bullpen shaking out like this:
Howry, assuming we sign him to close
Riske
Rhodes (not a true match-up lefty)
Cabrera
Betancourt
Miller/Brown
A Match-Up LH (either a FA or Tallet, Stanford, Traber, etc.)

Now, assuming that Scott Elarton signs a deal with the team (he apparently realized after Colorado that being in a comfortable situation is more important to him than counting every last dollar, which Millwood and Boras will certainly do this off-season), the Tribe has 4 starters in line:
Lee
Westbrook
C.C.
Elarton
The fifth spot could go to a FA, though the names out there aren't going to set the Cuyahoga on fire, or giving Fausto Carmona a shot at the fifth spot, with more young stud starters (Sowers, Miller, etc.) in the pipeline. I'd like to see what Carmona could do, though I'd like to see it as an open competition to force him to earn a spot, as C.C. memorably did a few years back.

Who's noticeably absent from this list? Jason Davis, who I believe will be part of a trade to land either a 1B or RF for next year. I would guess a RF because Ryan Garko (the top 1B prospect) seems a lot closer to being major league ready than the outfield prospects (Gutierrez, Snyder, and Cooper, to a lesser degree). Davis is still young and has a live arm, but as has happened to Tallet, Traber, and Cruceta (claimed off of waivers by Seattle), more talented arms have emerged and staked their claims into figuring into the future of the organization, perhaps more than Jason Dangerously.

With all of the thoughts and options on my mind about next year, I'll touch on building through Free Agency (a la the Yankees and the Cardinals) vs. building from within (a la the A's and the Braves) in the next post.

In the meantime, if you're anywhere near the Jake in the next three days, head to the game. I'll be there on Wednesday, which coincidentally is my anniversary. The Bride's comment after sweeping the Orioles, "If they're hot when they get back to town, we'll skip dinner and hit the game". That date will also be the year anniversary of the 22-0 drubbing of the Yankees in the Bronx.

Back on Track?

After the debacle of the last 2 games, the offense exploded for 10 runs today to give Jake a W. With C.C.'s performance and the anemic offense against the Royals, this was a much needed boost for the skidding Tribe.

Casey Coleman had an interesting point in today's pre-game that had to do with last night's lineup (which looked like the Buffalo Bisons', maybe worse). His comment was that with the night game followed by the day game, Wedge had to sit some starters for one of the games. One could argue that Wedge would want to play them in the game that he thought he had a better chance of winning (with Westbrook or Sabathia on the mound). Whether or not that was the case, it was certainly an interesting perspective.

Looking at this team, there are some things in an overview that are becoming obvious:

• The starting pitching will continue to be the strength of this team for years to come. Guys like Millwood and Elarton may come and go, but the groundwork is laid with Lee, Westbrook, and C.C. (warts and all) to consistently put a strong rotation together. Mix in the fact that the rotations in AAA and AA are absolutely stacked with young talent (not to mention High A players like Adam Miller) and the future looks good, assuming of course that championships are built on pitching (which they are).
• The core offensive players on this team right now are Sizemore, Hafner, Peralta, and Martinez (slow starts and all). The complementary players on the team are Coco and Boone (if healthy). The rest of the positions, as far as I'm concerned, are up for grabs at the end of the year. Much more consistency is needed from 1B, 2B, and RF. Broussard, Belliard, and Blake are all decent players in their own right; but, if and when the Indians put a serious push together, I don't anticipate any of them to be around. Broussard and Blake are too streaky (and when they're cooler than cool...they're ICE COLD), and Belliard's annual swoon (coupled with the fact that it looks like he's not trying half the time) lead me to believe that FA's will be added in those spots (unless Dubois or prospects like Garko or Gatreau are given a chance). An All-Star is not needed at every position, but a player who doesn't constantly leave runners on the bases by whiffing or hitting into DP's is needed (and would be a welcome change).
• The bullpen will remain a work in progress, as evidenced by the high expectations and dismal performance of 2004 and, conversely, the early uncertainties and steady production in 2005. The pieces are there for the future in Riske, Cabrera, Betancourt, and even The Frisbee Thrower, Miller. There will always be relievers available in the offseason, and there are a few nice arms in the minors who translate well into the big league bullpen (Brown, Mujica, and Sipp). After 2004, the Indians' front office will never take this aspect of the team for granted.
• This team still needs to do a lot of maturing and learning how to win by playing smart baseball. A veteran presence (who's not hitting .220) is necessary to help this team establish some consistency, rather than letting streaks dominate their season. This team still gets too high and too low and can't find that middle ground of consistency. That, though, comes with time and experience of being there.

This team still has a legitimate shot at this Wild Card. Despite a lot of teams making a STRONG push right now (A's, Spankees), it is the middle of July. There are 2 1/2 months left in the season, where a lot can happen.

The Saturday Seattle game is on FOX nationally at 3:15. Who are the ad wizards who came up with this one? What's the angle? Grover coming back? Rhodes facing his old mates? My guess is the programmer who scheduled this one is back working at the FOX Tulsa affiliate.

How bad is summer TV? Between the 2nd rate reality shows (The Scholar, I Want to be a Hilton), and reruns of those AWFUL shows on during the normal schedule (Joey, every comedy on ABC), I find myself watching those VH-1 and E! "lists" more and more. If I see 101 Celebrity Oops' one more time, I might throw up. God forbid I go outside, for fear of melting. Seriously, though, when do Lost and Arrested Development start back up? Thank God (and the in-laws) for the Curb Your Enthusiasm and Seinfeld DVD's.

But I digress. Tribe faces Moyer tomorrow, who turns into Sandy Koufax in his prime whenever he faces the Indians' lineup. Hopefully, the Tribe can sweep and finish the homestand at 5-6 after a disastrous start.

Prospect Update

With the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft happening today (which I've never heard anyone refer to as their Christmas), I thought it would be interesting to see what the Tribe's Top 10 Prospects, as determined this off-season by Baseball America, are faring in the 2005 campaign.

1. Adam Miller RHP - Currently on the DL in Kinston, with an eye for a return in the near future. This 20 year old, whose fast track to Cleveland has hit a little road bump, needs to prove that he is healthy before continuing his seemingly obvious trip to Jacobs Field.
2. Michael Aubrey 1B - Also currently on the DL in Akron after playing 27 games, hitting .288 with 4 HR and 19 RBI. A modestly impressive OPS of .816 shows that Aubrey can certainly hit, if he can only stay healthy. BA's timetable of a midseason call-up to Buffalo with an eye to challenging Broussard in 2006 may be premature.
3. Franklin Gutierrez OF - AGAIN, currently on the DL in Akron after playing 44 games, hitting a paltry.238 with 3 HR and 17 RBI. His OPS, a miserable of .694 (though not bad when compared to some in the Tribe lineup) may be an indication that Gutierrez tried to play through pain unsuccessfully. Again, he may still full need another full season in the minors before challenging the mighty Coco Crisp (wait, what?).
4. Brad Snyder OF - Hitting .274 in Kinston, with 5 HR and 24 RBI is less than what the Tribe expects from this former 1st round pick, who continues to develop rather slowly. The hope is that his body will fill out, transforming him into a corner outfielder; but it doesn't look like that's happened yet for the Ball State grad.
5. Jeremy Sowers LHP - The 2004 first rounder has impressed at Kinston, with a 7-3 record and a 2.63 ERA. He's also punched out 65 batters in 61 2/3 innings while posting a 1.04 WHIP. Look for Sowers to move up to Akron as the season goes on and the parent club dips into the minors for some help.
6. Fausto Carmona RHP - Currently 4-4 in Akron's rotation, posting a 3.89 ERA and the opposition hitting .262 against him. Though still only 21, his fast track has hit a snag in Akron, where he's spending another year. If Buffalo loses someone in the rotation, look for Carmona to get the call-up, but some feel that his stuff may translate better in the bullpen for the future.
7. Fernando Cabrera RHP - The last man out of the pen in Spring Training has pitched like a man possessed in Buffalo, posting a 5-0 record, a 0.84 ERA, 43 K's in 32 IP, and an improbable WHIP of 0.91! He's doing it as the set-up man for Jake Robbins, so he's not ready to close just yet. But those numbers are hard to ignore. Cabrera's monster start in Buffalo gives the parent club some options to possibly move a bullpen piece for some offense (more on that later). Cabrera should be in Cleveland at some point before the All-Star break. Does anyone else get Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona mixed up, or am I the only one who lies awake at night trying to remember which is which?
8. Ryan Garko C/1B - His right handed stick continues to mash, though at a lesser pace than last year, compiling 8 HR and 28 RBI in 52 games. His average of .250 could certainly use some work, but his OPS of .786 keeps him in the discussion. The big problem with Garko is that he is blocked at the ML level by some long-term contract players. He is first a C (The Stick), then a DH (Le Pronk), and finally a decent 1B (Broussard). The Tribe brass will struggle to find a spot for Garko, but let's hope that his hitting forces his bat down I-90 into a spot (right-handed, no less) into the lineup.
9. Nick Pesco RHP - Currently 6-4 with a 3.45 ERA in the Kinston starting rotation, Pesco has adapted well to High A hitters and should tag along with Sowers on the path to Akron as the season progresses.
10. Andrew Brown RHP - Brown has disappointed in Buffalo, going 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA. There are other arms in Buffalo who have passed Brown up in the pecking order for a bullpen arm, notably Kaz Tadano and Chad Zerbe (a lefty).

Having impressive seasons thus far, but missing from the list from each level (AAA to High A) are:

Buffalo - Jake Gatreau, 3B, who was acquired for Corey Smith from the Padres in a swap of 1st Round Busts. All Jake has done is hit .295 with 11 HR and 30 RBI, while posting a .891 OPS. While the Aaron Boone Experiment (good name for a band) continues, Gatreau is blocked; but keep your eye on this 3B.

Akron - Dan Denham, P, who is 4-2 in Akron, with a 2.98 ERA and the opposition batting .198 against him. Denham, a former 1st round pick, may find himself leap-frogging some of the pitchers listed above if he continues his solid year.

Kinston - Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, is another purveyor of the hot corner in the bushes who is impressing early on in the 2005 campaign. Hitting .346 with 9 HR and 45 RBI in 49 games is not even the most impressive stat. His OPS tops the 1000 plateau, sitting at 1.014! With Akron's offense struggling, Kouzmanoff shoud get the call to come up north soon.

In response to What Can Be Done of yesterday, I ran across an interesting trade proposal from the Indians Compendium (http://www.insidethecomp.blogspot.com) a couple of days ago. He writes:
The Phillies Get:
RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez
The Indians Get:
2B/3B Placido Polanco
All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Makes sense to me, but staying up to watch the Tribe play the Padres until 1AM doesn't. Looks like Casey Coleman will have to let me know the results at 7:40.

Little by Little

Tough loss today for the Crooked Cap and the Tribe as they ran into a buzzsaw in Roy Halladay. Though it would be nice to rip off 10-12 in a row and get right into the thick of things in the Central, let's be a little more realistic. A VERY good sign is that the Indians have won 3 of their last 4 series, most against playoff caliber teams (MIN, LAA) while the team seems to be hitting its stride.

Interesting that the players getting hot and carrying this team recently are Coco, Sizemore, Jhonny, and Broussard. With the exception of Broussard (who has 2 years 33 days in the majors), all have less than 2 years ML experience. With the young guns seemingly adjusted to pitching, all we need is for The Stick and Pronk to find their strokes and we'll be rolling. The interesting thing is that these young guys seem to have said, "well, the veterans haven't exactly shown us the way, let's figure it out for ourselves."

The lineup is still in flux and the White Sox are still steamrolling through the AL, but my confidence is much higher than it was after the KC series.

With a work trip to Chicago this week in the works (where I will catch a White Sox game at the Cell on Tuesday, accompanied by a work associate from Minneapolis, who happened to coach Joe Mauer in Little League - so I should be up on our Central rivals), I thought that I should do a little comparison of players signed by the Tribe in the off-season, compared to players on their radar, who signed elsewhere. I've narrowed it down to a starter (Millwood), a closer (Wickman), and an outfield bat (should be Gonzalez, but I'll compare Sizemore and Ludwick to the FA crop, as they're the ones who have benefited from the Hamstring from Hell). Also, I'll take a look at Vizquel vs. Peralta. I won't get into your boy A. Boone.

Player W-L ERA WHIP BAA
Millwood 1-3 3.54 1.30 .313
Clement 4-0 3.06 1.40 .338
Lieber 5-2 3.31 1.18 .291

So, what does this tell us? Other than that the Tribe brass targeted the right FA pitchers, Millwood and his salary represent the best bargain. While both Clement and Lieber would be nice in the rotation, not a bad call by Shapiro.

Player S ERA WHIP BAA
Wickman 11 3.77 1.26 .310
Benitez 4 5.79 1.61 .366
Percival 3 3.65 1.14 .308
Hermanson 8 0.00 0.76 .222

Given that Benitez and Percival are both on the DL, not a bad call to take the Sticky One. Even though the appearances are wet and wild, hyperventilating seems to help him with the last 3 outs of the game.

Player BA HR RBI OPS
Sizemore .269 3 14 .724
Ludwick 200 3 4 .774
Alou .271 3 12 .865
Burnitz .287 6 21 .848

This is a tough one to call, though who really expected Juan Gone to play this year. Keep in mind that Grady is 22 and plays center field like he's covering a kick-off. Giving Sizemore at-bats is a plus for the maturation of this club. I could take or leave Ludwick.

Player BA HR RBI OPS Fielding
Peralta .268 5 10 .886 .950
Omar .283 0 14 .748 .983

Keep the Thome Rule in mind here (broken down early with a long-term contract) and I like the way that Jhonny has settled into the lineup. Omar was and is a great player, but Peralta still is only 22 years old, so I'll take the Honey P.

Call me the Eternal Optimist, but I think that the Tribe made some good choices. Sure there are better ones out there, or else they wouldn't be 10 games back in mid-May, but we have to be patient. Victor and Pronk haven't yet hit their strides and Boone HAS to start hitting (doesn't he?)

I'll see you in Comiskey on Tuesday night. I'll be the one encouraging the shirtless drunk onto the field.

2005 Preview - Positional Analysis Part IV

Starting Pitching
The addition of Kevin Millwood should be the main determining factor in the role of the starting pitching in the AL Central race. Millwood's health as the season progresses will determine whether the Indians stay with Minnesota for the Central or have to depend on young arms to carry the burden. Oblique muscle notwithstanding, C.C. Sabathia remains the "ace" of the rotation, if only because he has the highest cieling and seems to embrace the thought of being a true No. 1. If reports are to be believed, C.C. is in the best shape of his life and is ready to tackle the opponents' ace every 5. There is no questioning C.C.'s stuff, but he must become mentally tougher to establish himself as an elite pitcher. Though he is still young, Sabathia often lapses into mental mistakes and lets his emotions get the best of him, affecting his performance negatively. This year should decide whether the Indians approach Sabathia with a long-term deal (a la Johan Santana) or let C.C. ride out his current contract. Here's hoping that Sabathia enters that elite status and carries the Tribe during his starts as he is capable of doing.
Jake Westbrook parlayed a few tremendous middle relief outings into an exceptional 2004 season. When his sinker is working, Westbrook gets ground ball outs while working quickly and efficiently. If Westbrook is cruising, expect a game under 2 1/2 hours at the park. The loss of Omar may affect Jake the most as Jhonny Peralta is an unproven commodity as SS. Boone, Belliard, and Broussard are all solid defenders, but Westbrook is so dependent upon good fielding that the loss of Omar's ability to get to the hole may affect Westbrook's performance in 2005. Kevin Millwood steps into the 3 spot with less expectations than a Matt Clement or Jon Lieber, but also less certainty about his health. If Millwood is healthy, his signing is a major coup for the Tribe as he is a veteran innings-eater who learned at the knees of the Big 3 in Atlanta. His tutelage could be vital to the development of some of the Indians' young arms. However, if Millwood is not healthy, he pushes everyone behind him in the rotation up and puts more pressure on Cliff Lee, Scott Elarton, and Jason Davis/Brian Tallett/Billy Traber/whoever. And that "whoever" is big because Millwood's presence stabilizes the rotation and allows everyone to settle into their "spot", just as Bob Wickman does in the bullpen.
Cliff Lee lived through 2 seasons last year that saw him cruise through the All-Star break, only to completely break down for the stretch run. The experience that the lefty must build upon is a strong finish to last year, which will hopefully lead to a strong start and increased confidence. The innings and experience under his belt from last year can only help as he makes his push to be a solid 2 or 3 in the rotation of the future.
Scott Elarton, who was pulled off of the scrap heap last year to perform adequately for the Tribe, is a potential solid 5. His delivery scares some as he has experienced mechanics problems in the past, but as long as he can keep the Indians in the games that he pitches against the other number 5's, he is a bargain.
Waiting in the immediate wings are Jason Davis, who will get his shot with Sabathia's oblique injury, Brian Tallet, who impressed in Spring Training, Billy Traber, who is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Kyle Denney, still trying to shake off the go-go boot incident (just kidding), Jason Stanford, another Tommy John victim, Jeremy Guthrie, who after being derailed last year is still trying to justify his signing bonus, and Francisco Cruceta, whose temperment may keep him in Buffalo or make him part of a package. Some of those pitchers, notably Davis and Tallet, may translate to the pen as time progresses.
On the horizon are Fausto Carmona, who may also eventually end up in the pen, Adam Miller, the shelved Golden Boy of the organization, Brian Slocum, J.D. Martin, Jake Dittler, and Jeremy Sowers, last year's first-round pick.
Bullpen
After last year, it couldn't get worse...could it? Not with this year's revamped bullpen, of course assuming that Bob Wickman can stay healthy. The bullpen begins with Wickman, who is out to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season. His saves aren't pretty, but he is effective and his presence allows the rest of the bullpen to sort itself out into defined roles. Setting up for Wick will be Bob Howry, who was impressive last year after coming off an injury. Howry will step in for Wickman if need be, though let's hope he doesn't have to. The presence of Scott Sauerbeck and Arthur Rhodes give the Indians something they were sorely lacking last year, a veteran lefty who can come in to get one guy out, Paul Assenmacher style. After suffering through Scott Stewart, then Cliff Bartosh, one of the two of Sauerbeck and Rhodes has to step up to take some pressure off of the rest of the bullpen. The guess here is that Rhodes will return to his Seattle form, now that the lofty expectations of Billy Beane are far away. Rhodes' salary should be enough to make sure he sticks around. The rest of the bullpen is what remains from the disaster of last year. David Riske, who proved that he can't close, will be back doing what he does best: working the 7th inning effectively. Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt won the final two spots in the pen this Spring, after a spirited run by Brian Tallet. Miller, the bespeckled sidearmer, is particularly effective against righties while lefties seem to crush him. Betancourt lives his life throwing strikes, for better or worse. Both should do well in their new roles, to which they are better suited than setting up and closing (which they did last year).
Should injuries or ineffectiveness get to the pen, help is not far away. Brian Tallet's strong Spring should tranlate into his name being the first called in a pinch. Sabathia's return could mean the return of Davis to the pen, where his stuff and his tempermant are better suited. Davis, with some seasoning, could turn into another Joe Nathan, capable of closing games very effectively. Another potential closer in the organization is Fernando Cabrera, whose lights-out stuff hasn't translated in the bigs yet. Also just a phone call away are Kaz Tadano, who seems to be the only Japanese reliever not instantly successful in America, and Andrew Brown, a big righty acquired in the Milton Bradley deal who needs to learn how to relieve in the minors for a while.

Whew, with that out of the way, next up is predictions and random thoughts, which will be more in line with the flavor of the blog.